Suchergebnisse

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a new generation of macroeconomic agent-based models (ABMs). The ABM moves beyond the state of the art by exploiting large data sets from detailed national accounts, census data, and business information, etc., to simulate interactions of millions of agents representing \backslashemph{each} natural person or legal entity in a national economy. The catastrophe model introduces a copula approach to assess flood losses, considering spatial dependencies of the flood hazard. These loss estimates are used in a damage scenario generator that provides input for the ABM, which then estimates indirect economic losses due to the event. For the first time, we are able to link environmental and economic processes in a computer simulation at this level of detail. We show that moderate disasters induce comparably small but positive short- to medium-term, and negative long-term economic impacts. Large-scale events, however, trigger a pronounced negative economic response immediately after the event and in the long term, while exhibiting a temporary short- to medium-term economic boost. We identify winners and losers in different economic sectors, including the fiscal consequences for the government. We quantify the critical disaster size beyond which the resilience of an economy to rebuild reaches its limits. Our results might be relevant for the management of the consequences of systemic events due to climate change and other disasters.

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a new generation of macroeconomic agent-based models (ABMs). The ABM moves beyond the state of the art by exploiting large data sets from detailed national accounts, census data, and business information, etc., to simulate interactions of millions of agents representing \emph{each} natural person or legal entity in a national economy. The catastrophe model introduces a copula approach to assess flood losses, considering spatial dependencies of the flood hazard. These loss estimates are used in a damage scenario generator that provides input for the ABM, which then estimates indirect economic losses due to the event. For the first time, we are able to link environmental and economic processes in a computer simulation at this level of detail. We show that moderate disasters induce comparably small but positive short- to medium-term, and negative long-term economic impacts. Large-scale events, however, trigger a pronounced negative economic response immediately after the event and in the long term, while exhibiting a temporary short- to medium-term economic boost. We identify winners and losers in different economic sectors, including the fiscal consequences for the government. We quantify the critical disaster size beyond which the resilience of an economy to rebuild reaches its limits. Our results might be relevant for the management of the consequences of systemic events due to climate change and other disasters.

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a new generation of macroeconomic agent-based models (ABMs). The ABM moves beyond the state of the art by exploiting large data sets from detailed national accounts, census data, and business information, etc., to simulate interactions of millions of agents representing \emph{each} natural person or legal entity in a national economy. The catastrophe model introduces a copula approach to assess flood losses, considering spatial dependencies of the flood hazard. These loss estimates are used in a damage scenario generator that provides input for the ABM, which then estimates indirect economic losses due to the event. For the first time, we are able to link environmental and economic processes in a computer simulation at this level of detail. We show that moderate disasters induce comparably small but positive short- to medium-term, and negative long-term economic impacts. Large-scale events, however, trigger a pronounced negative economic response immediately after the event and in the long term, while exhibiting a temporary short- to medium-term economic boost. We identify winners and losers in different economic sectors, including the fiscal consequences for the government. We quantify the critical disaster size beyond which the resilience of an economy to rebuild reaches its limits. Our results might be relevant for the management of the consequences of systemic events due to climate change and other disasters.

We analyse the poisonous interaction between bank rescues, financial fragility and sovereign debt discounts. In our model balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries finance both capital expenditure of intermediate goods producers and government deficits. The financial intermediaries face the risk of a (partial) default of the government on its debt obligations. We analyse the impact of a financial crisis, first under full government credibility and then with an endogenous sovereign debt discount. We introduce long term government debt, which gives rise to the possibility of capital losses on bank balance sheets. The negative feedback effects from falling bond prices on the economy are shown to increase with the average duration of the government bonds, as higher interest rates on new debt lead to capital losses on banks' holding of existing long term (government) debt. The associated increase in credit tightness leads to a negative amplification effect, significantly increasing output losses and declines in investment after a financial crisis. We introduce sovereign default risk through the existence of a maximum sustainable level of debt, derived from the maximum level of taxation that is politically feasible. When close to this limit, sovereign discounts emerge reflecting potential defaults on debt, creating a strong link between sovereign default risk and financial fragility emerges. A debt-financed recapitalisation of the financial intermediaries causes bond prices to drop triggering capital losses at the bank under intervention. This mechanism shows the limits to conventional bank bail-outs in countries with fragile public creditworthiness, limits that became very visible during the Great Recession in Southern Europe.

Purpose. Determine the effects of telephone-based coaching and a weight-loss supplement on the weight and body fat (BF) of overweight adults. Design. Randomized, placebo-controlled experiment with assessments at baseline, 2 months, and 4 months. Setting. Community. Subjects. Sixty overweight or obese men and 60 overweight or obese women, 25 to 60 years old. Intervention. Eleven 30-minute telephone coaching sessions were spaced throughout the study; the initial conversation lasted 60 to 90 minutes. Supplement or placebo capsules were taken daily over the 17 weeks. Measures. Weight was measured using an electronic scale, and BF was assessed using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Results. Subjects taking the placebo lost 1.8 + 3.3 kg of weight and 0.7 + 2.2 kg of BF, whereas supplement users lost more: 3.1 + 3.7 kg of weight (F = 4.1, P = .045) and 1.7 + 2.6 kg of BF (F = 4.4, p = .039). Participants receiving no coaching lost 1.8 + 3.3 kg of weight and 0.7 + 2.2 kg of BF, whereas adults receiving coaching lost more: 3.2 + 3.6 kg of weight (F = 4.8, p = .032) and 1.6 + 2.5 kg of BF (F = 4.2, p = .044). Adults receiving both the supplement and coaching had the greatest losses of weight and BF, suggesting an additive effect (F = 3.2, p = .026; F = 2.9, p = .039, respectively). Conclusions. Both treatments, coaching and the supplement, viewed separately and in combination, worked to help subjects lose weight and BF. Adults can be educated and motivated via telephone to change behaviors leading to weight loss, and a weight-loss supplement can be included to increase success.

As the government prioritizes green energy over livelihoods, residents of Pakistan's Thal region in the Punjab province confront a heartbreaking loss of their ancestral lands.

Adolescents who do not fully address the process of mourning after abortion, miscarriage, or infant loss may face a greater risk of subsequent pregnancy

The pursuit of individualism and self-realization has led to a loss in the balance between acceptance of social responsibility and desire for personal freedom

[2], 5 p. ; Imperfect: faded and stained with loss of print; text begins on signature Aaa. ; Reproduction of the original in the Harvard University Library.

Taxation is what the European Union lacks today. EU is an area of rights without duties or, rather, in which duties (including taxation) exist only vis-à-vis the individual member states to which they belong. European citizenship is therefore halved, because it is indistinguishable from national citizenship and does not express solidaristic belonging to a supranational community. The investigation into the Union's own tax is the means to address broader issues related to the being of the European Union and its citizens and having at their core the transnational declination of solidarity. The economic and financial profile - inextricably linked to the tax and its revenue - transcends into the centrality of the uses, i.e. the goods and services that the Union may be able to provide, and the indispensable overcoming of the national particularisms that this implies.

City life has been reconfigured by our use-and our expectations-of communication, data, and sensing technologies. This book examines the civic use, regulation, and politics of these technologies, looking at how governments, planners, citizens, and activists expect them to enhance life in the city. Alison Powell argues that the de facto forms of citizenship that emerge in relation to these technologies represent sites of contention over how governance and civic power should operate. These become more significant in an increasingly urbanized and polarized world facing new struggles over local participation and engagement. The author moves past the usual discussion of top-down versus bottom-up civic action and instead explains how citizenship shifts in response to technological change and particularly in response to issues related to pervasive sensing, big data, and surveillance in "smart cities."

City life has been reconfigured by our use-and our expectations-of communication, data, and sensing technologies. This book examines the civic use, regulation, and politics of these technologies, looking at how governments, planners, citizens, and activists expect them to enhance life in the city. Alison Powell argues that the de facto forms of citizenship that emerge in relation to these technologies represent sites of contention over how governance and civic power should operate. These become more significant in an increasingly urbanized and polarized world facing new struggles over local participation and engagement. The author moves past the usual discussion of top-down versus bottom-up civic action and instead explains how citizenship shifts in response to technological change and particularly in response to issues related to pervasive sensing, big data, and surveillance in "smart cities."

AbstractPassed in December 2019, the Citizenship Amendment Act intensified Hindu majoritarian rule, emerging as another legal measure to systematically deny citizenship to Muslims and other minoritized populations. These legislations were met by protests which were responded to by police violence. Young Muslim women at Jamia Milia Islamia University followed the lead of elders in Shaheen Bagh, crafting an intergenerational feminist‐led protest which emerged at the forefront of resistance efforts. This article attends to young women's spatiotemporal claims of recognition and belonging. Dwelling on the collective and corporeal nature of their engagement, I highlight the theoretical significance of this unwavering collective still presence that characterizes their participation. In an India that increasingly questions their belonging, these student protesters craft home as an expanded political site. They make embodied claims to the university, public space, and by extension, the nation, as home.

We explored why and when a pervasive negative family experience (family ostracism) can have an effect on individuals in the context of their employment (job goal progress, interpersonal citizenship behavior) and health outcomes (somatic complaints). We recruited 349 employees in China
to complete a survey. The results showed that family ostracism was negatively related to job goal progress and interpersonal citizenship behavior and was positively related to somatic complaints. Psychological needs satisfaction partially mediated this relationship. Moreover, work–family
centrality moderated the mediating effect: For individuals who prioritized work over family and derived their psychological satisfaction predominantly from their work rather than their family, the negative impact of family ostracism on the satisfaction of their psychological needs was relatively
low. These results provide theoretical and practical insights into the value of avoiding the negative effects of family ostracism in the workplace.

Citizenship education played a crucial role in the 19th century transition from royal sovereignty to democracy in the Nordic region, with folk high schools (FHS) playing an important role. While established to empower the people (folk) for active participation in society, the contemporary folk high schools have reoriented from their initial national focus to emphasise global citizenship education. The paper traces this development and asks how the identity and practice of the FHS reflect the ideals of human rights education. The article outlines the ideology and history of the Nordic folk high schools and builds an analytical framework for two empirical studies of student texts. The final discussion applies the presented material to shed light on the research question and concludes by suggesting that the Nordic folk high schools can be seen as a regional adaption of human rights education.