Suchergebnisse

Arviointi, mikäli sen kaikkia mahdollisuuksia hyödynnettäisiin, olisi tärkeä työkalu avustamaan julkista sekä yksityissektoria ja kansalaisyhteiskuntaa inhimillisen hyvinvoinnin lisäämiseksi. Valitettavasti, vaikka tehtyjen arviointien määrä on maailmanlaajuisesti lisääntymässä, näiden arviointien alhainen hyödyntämisaste on samoin kasvamassa. Tästä esimerkkinä on kehitystyö, jossa lukemattomat tuotetut ja oppimislähteenä käytettäväksi oletetut arviointiraportit kuitenkin todellisuudessa makaavat koskemattomina. Tämä toteutumaton "käyttö" on todellista ajan ja rajallisten julkisten varojen tuhlausta. Arviointien hyödyllisyyden määrittäminen tiukasti näiden julkaistujen arviointiraporttien käyttöön perustuvaksi, mikä useimmiten on tilanne, laiminlyö ja vähentää muiden käytettävissä olevien arviointielementtien, kuten arviointitoimeksiannon tai arviointiprosessin hyödyntämistä ja käyttöä, mikä yhä enemmän supistaa arvioinnin kokonaisvaikuttavuutta. Tämän tansanialaisessa ammattikoulussa, Mwanza Home Craft Centressä (MHCC), toteutetun arviointikokeilun tarkoitus oli hyödyntää arviointia, etenkin sen arviointiprosessia, arviointivaikutusten osoittamiseksi. Kokeiluni, joka toteutettiin suomalaisin kehitystyövaroin käynnistetyssä kansalaisjärjestöhankkeessa, tehtiin kehityshankkeesta rinnan hankkeen edetessä, oli vastakohta kehnosti hyödynnetyille ulkopuolisten arvioitsijoiden vallitsevaa tilivelvollisuus- ja kontrollitarkoitusta varten tekemille, menneeseen fokusoituneille ja kovia tutkimusmenetelmiä käyttäville kehitysarvioinneille, jotka sulkevat paikalliset ulkopuolelle ja ovat heille vieraita, ja siksi saavat vähäistä paikallista arviointivaikuttavuutta aikaan. Noissa arvioinneissa on suosittu hallitsevaa länsimaista ja Eurooppa-keskeistä positivistista tulokulmaa, rahoittajakeskeistä arviointiparadigmaa ja hegemonista kieltä, joka saa alkunsa uudesta julkishallinnon johtamisliikkeestä. Sen sijaan, kokeiluni oli mikrokuvaus ja reflektio hankkeen rahoittajan sponsoroimasta, paikallis- ja asianomaiskeskeisestä, oppimis- ja tulevaisuussuuntautuneesta, paikallisesti hyödynnetystä ja vaikuttaneesta kehitysarvioinnista. Arviointikokeilu koostui kahdesta komponentista. Arviointiosuudessa tutkittiin ammatillisen koulutuksen sosio-ekonomisia vaikutuksia. Arviointitutkimusosiossa fokusoitiin arvioinnin prosessikäyttöön ja arvioinnin vaikuttavuuteen. Ammattikouluhankkeessa kaikkien asianomaisten arviointioppimista pyrittiin tukemaan arvioinnin aikana arviointiprosessia hyödyntäen. Yksilöllisiä, interpersoonallisia ja kollektiivisia arviointivaikutuksia tavoiteltiin henkilökohtaisen ja organisaation osallistumisen, saadun arviointikokemuksen ja valmennuksen sekä dialogin kautta. Mandaattini oli integroida, "arviointimassoja", tarkoittaen avun vastaanottajia, paikallisten arviointivaikutusten aikaansaamiseksi, ja tarkastella arvioinnissa suhdetta valtaan heidän näkökulmastaan. Yleisesti ottaen heillä on vähemmän valtaa ja ääntä nykyisessä kehitysarvioinnissa kuin vahvemmilla, "eliitillä", avun rahoittajilla. Asetin hypoteesikseni, että jokainen tutkimus ja arviointitutkimus on tulokulmasidonnaista, mikä vaikuttaa arvioinnin käytettävyyteen, ja siten myös arvioinnin vaikutuksiin, vaikutustyyppeihin, -tasoon, -ryhmiin, ja vaikuttavuuden kestoon. Tässä tutkimuksessa painotettiin sellaisia arvioinninkäytössä ja arvioinnin vaikuttavuudessa keskeisessä roolissa olevia elementtejä, kuten arviointiparadigmaa, arviointimallia ja metodologiaa, arvioijan asemaa ja näkökulmaa, arvioinnin käyttäjien asemaa, arviointitarkoitusta, arvioinnin aikakehikkoa, ja arviointietiikkaa. Tässä tutkimuksessa käytettiin toimintatutkimuksellisesti suuntautunutta strategiaa. Tutkimusaineisto koottiin kahden Tansanian kenttämatkan aikana useita aineistonkeruumenetelmiä hyödyntäen. Arvioinnin vaikutuksia ja arvioinnin prosessikäyttöä tutkittiin aineistosta, joka saatiin ammattikoulutustapauksen kahdesta MHCC:n henkilöstölle ja komiteanjäsenille organisoidusta seminaarista ja työpajasta, samoin kuin henkilöstön jäsenten teemahaastatteluista ja komitean, henkilöstön antamasta kirjallisesta arviointipalautteesta ja yhdestä 11 hengen ryhmähaastattelusta. Lisäksi, ammatillisen koulutuksen sosio-ekonomisia vaikutuksia kerättiin 115 opiskelijan kirjallisen kertomuksen ja taustalomakkeen sekä 11 opiskelijan ja 20 muun arvioijan teemahaastattelun avulla. Kirjallinen aineisto koodattiin käyttäen teoriavetoista (tai -suuntautunutta) laadullista sisällönanalyysiä, johon pohjautuen johtopäätökset tehtiin. MHCC:n arviointikokeilu osoitti, että valittu arvioinnin tulokulma ja paradigma erilaisten arviointifaktorissa olevien elementtien hyödyntämisen kautta vaikutti arvioinnin käyttöön ja arvioinnin vaikutuksiin. Kokeilu sai aikaan vaikuttavuutta; arviointia automaattisesti hyödynnettiin jo arvioitaessa sen prosessikäytön vuoksi. Arviointiprosessiin osallistuneiden henkilöiden ja heidän instituutioidensa omakohtaisia arviointikokemuksia ei voinut vain "jättää hyllylle". Heidän yksilöllinen, henkilöiden välinen ja kollektiivinen arviointioppiminen arvioidessa kiistatta myötävaikutti, ei vain välittömiin vaan myös pidempiaikaisiin kognitiivisiin, affektiivisiin, sosiaalisiin, toiminnallisiin, jopa taloudellisiin ja kulttuurillisiin muutoksiin kehitysintervention eri tasoilla, jopa ammattioppilaitoksen ulkopuolella. Tämän tutkimusten löydösten perusteella, päättelin, että prosessuaalinen arvioinnin käyttö oli vahva työkalu ja MHCC:n muutosprosessien kiihdyttäjä, etenkin niille arvioinnin asianomaisille, jotka omaksuivat arvioivaa mieltä. Tämä ajattelutavan muutos, valistuminen ("mwanga"), mahdollisti siirtymisen jälki- ja menneisyysorientoituneesta historiaa tarkastelleesta ajattelusta tulevaisuussuuntautuneeseen omaehtoiseen kehittämistoimintaan. Tämä tutkimusaineisto antanee ymmärtää, että arviointiprosessilla ja -tuloksilla samanaikaisesti hyödynnettynä arvioivan oppimisen lähteinä oli pitkäaikaisia vaikutuksia – ehkä pidempiaikaisia kuin vain arviointituloksia yksin hyödynnettäessä voitaisiin aikaansaada. Nämä vaikutukset saattoivat muodostua MHCC:n reflektion, nopeamman ympäristöön reagoinnin ja jatkuvan sopeuttamisen elinehdoiksi. Tämä selitti, kuinka ammattikoulutusinstituutio MHCC on ollut kykenevä jatkuvasti uudistumaan ja muuttamaan toimintojaan tarvittaessa, huomioiden taloutensa ja ympäröivän yhteiskunnan vaatimukset sekä olemaan taloudellisesti itsensä kannattava yli 20 vuotta (mikä on ainutlaatuista koulutussektorilla maailmalaajuisestikin, puhumattakaan kehitysmaista, kuten Tansaniasta). Lisäksi, kokeilun ansiosta saatiin uutta tietoa arviointikohteesta, MHCC:stä opiskelijoineen, sen arviointikäytänteistä ja oppilaitosta ympäröivästä todellisuudesta. Ammattikoulun nimi muutettiin, uusia osastoja, kuten ajoneuvo, sähkö, sekä hotellinjohto ja turismi, lanseerattiin, ja uusia iltakursseja käynnistettiin, metallityön lisäkoulutusta, sekä tietokone- ja englannin kielen kursseja aloitettiin. Tämän tutkimuksen yleisenä yhteenvetona totean, että kansalaisjärjestöjen rooli on edelleen tärkeä ammatillisen koulutuksen järjestäjänä Tansanian kehityshankkeissa neljästä syystä. Ensiksi, koska maan koulutuksen yleistaso on dramaattisesti huonontunut. Toiseksi, koska riittävät ammattikoulutusmahdollisuudet puuttuvat. Kolmanneksi, koska ammattikoulutus on yleisesti ottaen hyödyllistä: se näytti vaikuttaneen ei vain yksilön köyhyyden vähentämiseen vaan laajemminkin yhteiskuntaan. Kuitenkin, tutkimustulokset esittivät yllättävän todisteen, mikä on vastakkaista länsimaalaiselle suoraviivaiselle ajattelulle ja oletukselle ammattitaidon ja ammatillisen koulutuksen valtavasta taloudellisesta voimasta ja hyödystä saajalleen; ei edes kokoaikatyö köyhyyden vähentämis- ja automaattisesti elintasoa nostavana keinona toiminut. Kaikesta huolimatta, minkä ammattiin opiskelleiden elämää koskeva aineisto todistaa, niiden, jotka kokivat positiivisia, merkittäviä, kestäviä taloudellisia, sosiaalisia ja henkilökohtaisia koulutusvaikutuksia MHCC:n koulutushankkeen vuoksi, nämä ammatillisen koulutuksen sosio-ekonomiset materiaaliset ja immateriaaliset positiiviset, tuotteliaat vaikutusketjut näyttivät ulottuneen myös laajennettuun perheeseen, ikätovereihin, yhteisöjen jäseniin ja tansanialaiseen yhteiskuntaan merkittävin seurannaisvaikutuksin. Esimerkkinä mainittakoon valmistuneiden opiskelijoiden sukulaisilleen, ikätovereilleen ja yhteisöjensä jäsenilleen tarjoama "epävirallinen, yksityinen oppisopimuskoulutusjärjestelmä"; jonka kautta yksi MHCC:stä valmistunut on epävirallisesti kouluttanut yli 50 henkilöä. Tosin, näitä sosio-ekonomisia koulutusvaikutuksia olisi voitu tehostaa resursoimalla ja tekemällä säännöllisesti arviointeja sekä syöttämällä niiden tuloksia edelleen ammattioppilaitoksen palvelujen parantamiseksi (esim. työvälineet tai yrittäjyyskurssit ammattiin valmistuneille). Neljänneksi, tutkimus osoitti, että kehitysmaissa työpaikat olivat tarjolla pääasiassa informaalilla sektorilla ja itsenäisenä ammatinharjoittajana työskenteleminen oli useimmille valmistuneille ainoa työllistymisvaihtoehto. Näin ollen, kansalaisjärjestöjen toteuttama ammattikoulutus oppilaitoksen kannattavuudelle välttämättömine tulonhankkimisprojekteineen (jotka yleensä puuttuvat valtion omistamista ammattioppilaitoksista) voi toimia erinomaisena yrittäjyyshenkeä vahvistavana oppimisympäristönä. Tutkimuslöytöjä voitaneen soveltaa seuraavasti. Ensiksi, huolestuttava arviointien käyttämättömyys ja/tai tehoton käyttö tulee tiedostaa. Toiseksi, arvioinnin teettäjien, käynnistäjien, rahoittajien ja avunantajien tulee saada lisätietoa merkittävistä arvioinnin positiiviseen käyttöön ja vaikuttavuuteen tai sitä estävistä kontekstuaalisista, arviointi- ja inhimillisistä faktoreista elementteineen. Esimerkiksi, sellaisia kontekstuaalisia tekijöitä, jotka liittyvät taloudellisiin ja poliittisiin rajoitteisiin ja arviointisysteemeihin ja jotka negatiivisesti vaikuttavat arviointien hyödyntämiseen ja vaikutuksiin, tulee paljastaa. Kolmanneksi, arviointien puutteellista hyödyntämistä vastaan tulee hyökätä muun muassa arviointiprosessia käyttämällä. Neljänneksi, jokaisessa arviointipolitiikassa ja -suunnitelmassa jo arvioinnin toimeksiantovaiheessa tulee edellyttää konkreettisia toimia arviointien hyödyntämiseksi. Jokaiselta julkisin varoin tuotetulta arvioinnilta tulee vaatia arvioinninkäyttösuunnitelma tavoiteltavine arviointivaikutuksineen ennen arvioinnin toimeenpano vaihetta. Viidenneksi, arviointikäyttö tulee uudelleen käsitteellistää arviointipolitiikkojen ja -suunnitelmien sanastossa. Kaikki tarjolla olevat arvioinnin käytön keskeiset elementit — arvioinnin toimeksianto, arviointiprosessi (eikä ainoastaan arviointilöydökset) — tulee maksimaalisesti valjastaa kaikilla arvioinnin tasoilla, myös kansalaisjärjestöissä, rajallisten evaluointiresurssien vuoksi, tuodakseen maksimaalisen arvon arviointikohteelle, sen asianomaisille ja arvioinnin käyttäjille. Kuudenneksi, arviointien hyödyntämistä tulee ohjeistaa, kannustaa ja rahoittaa. Arvioinnin käynnistäjien ja rahoittajien tulisi palkita arvioinnin asianomaisia ja heidän organisaatiotaan, mikäli arviointia hyödynnetään ja se saa aikaan vaikuttavuutta. Seitsemänneksi, arvioinnin vaikuttavuus/vaikutus -termit tarvitsevat selkeyttämistä, ei ainoastaan viitaten vain arvioinnin positiivisiin seurauksiin, vaan myös sen negatiivisiin, tahattomiin vaikutuksiin, joihin täytyy myös puuttua. ; Evaluation, if utilised to its full potential, would be an important tool for helping governments, the private sector and civil society to increase human well-being. Unfortunately, though the number of evaluations conducted is increasing worldwide, a low rate of utilisation of these evaluations is increasing as well. An example of this is the development field, where countless evaluation reports are produced and assumed to be used as sources of learning, when in reality they lie untouched. This non-actualised "use" is a real waste of time and of limited public funds. The usefulness of evaluations, when strictly determined based on the use of the published evaluation reports (as is the case most of the time), neglects the usefulness and reduces the utilisation of other evaluation elements available, such as evaluation commissioning or evaluation process, which further reduce the overall impact of the evaluation. This evaluation experiment, conducted in the Tanzanian vocational education and training (VET) centre, Mwanza Home Craft Centre (MHCC), was designed to utilise the evaluation, especially its process, to show evaluation impacts. My experiment, conducted upon the development intervention of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) established by Finnish funds, was performed concurrently alongside and from within the development intervention, in contrast to the poorly utilised development evaluations conducted for dominating accountability and control purposes by external evaluators using a past-focussed orientation combined with hard evaluation methods, all of which were exclusive and unfamiliar to the locals and thus, had minor local evaluation impact. In those evaluations the donorcentred standpoint, overarching evaluation paradigm and hegemonic language, having their origin in the New Public Management movement were favoured. Instead, I devised a micro explanation of, and provided reflections about, the donorsponsored, local- and stakeholder-centred, learning- and future-oriented, and locally utilised development evaluation with impacts. The evaluation experiment consisted of two components. In the evaluation section, the socio-economic impacts of VET were studied. In the research on evaluation section the focus was put on the process use of evaluation and evaluation impacts. In the VET project, all the stakeholders' evaluative learning was targeted to be supported with the assistance of the process use of evaluation while evaluating. It was aimed at individual, interpersonal and collective evaluation impacts through personal and organisational involvement, evaluative experience and training received, as well as dialogue. My mandate was to integrate into the evaluation process, evaluation "masses," that is, the aid recipients, to generate stronger local evaluation impacts, and to look at the relation to power in evaluation from their standpoint. Generally speaking, they have less power and voice in the current development evaluations than do "the elite," the financial donors. I hypothesised that every research and evaluation research is standpoint-bound, which has influence on evaluation usability, and then, on evaluation impacts, their types, levels, user groups, and duration. In this research, emphasis was placed on those elements playing key roles in evaluation use and evaluation impact, such as the evaluation paradigm, evaluation design and methodology; the evaluator's location and standpoint; the position of the evaluation users; the evaluation purpose; the evaluation time-frame; and evaluation ethics. In this research, the action research-oriented strategy was used. The research data was generated during two Tanzanian field trips by utilising various data generation methods. Evaluation impacts and process use of evaluation were studied through the data received from the VET case, its two seminars and workshops organised for the MHCC staff and committee members, as well as from thematic interviews of some staff persons and written evaluative feedback given by the committee, staff members and an 11-participant group interview. Again, socio-economic VET impacts were collected through the data of 115 former students' written stories and background questionnaires, as well as of 11 former students' and 20 other evaluees' thematic interviews. The written data of the evaluation experiment was coded by using the theory-driven (or theory-directed) qualitative content analysis, on which the conclusions were based and drawn. The evaluation experiment at MHCC indicated that the chosen evaluation standpoint and paradigm, through the utilisation of various elements existing in the evaluation factor, affected evaluation use and evaluation impacts. The experiment contributed to impact; the evaluation was automatically brought into utilisation while evaluating due to its process use. The first-hand evaluative experience of the participants and of their institutions involved in the evaluation process could not "just be left on the shelf." Their individual, interpersonal and collective evaluative learning, while evaluating, inevitably contributed not only to immediate but also to long-term cognitive, affective, social, behavioural, even economic, and cultural changes at various levels of the development intervention, even outside the VET centre. Based on findings of this research, I suggested that the processual use of evaluation was a powerful tool and an accelerator of MHCC's change processes, even for those stakeholders whose evaluative minds were made up. This change in the pattern of thought, enlightenment ("mwanga"), enabled a shift in focus from the post- and past-oriented, history observing thinking, to the future-directed independent line of development action. This research data might imply that evaluation process, with its findings utilised simultaneously as evaluative learning sources, had long-term effects — maybe longer than the findings use alone can generate. These impacts could become the lifeblood at MHCC for reflection, quicker reactivity to the environment and on-going adaptation. This presented an explanation for how the VET institution MHCC could have been capable of being renewed continuously and transforming its activities, as needed, regarding its economy and the demands of surrounding society, as well as being self-supporting for over 20 years (which is unique in the educational sector worldwide, let alone in the developing countries, like Tanzania). In addition, with the experiment, the new knowledge was received about the evaluand, MHCC and its students, its evaluation practices, and MHCC's surrounding reality. Again, the VET centre's name was changed, new departments such as motor vehicle, electricity, as well as hotel management and tourism were launched, and new evening courses, further education and training in welding and fabrication, as well as computer and English language courses, were started. As the general conclusion of this research I state that NGOs still have an important role as VET providers of Tanzanian development interventions, for four reasons. First, because the country's general education level has dramatically deteriorated. Second, because of a lack of sufficient VET opportunities. Third, because in general VET was beneficial: it seemed to have had impacts not only on an individual's poverty reduction, but even more widely on the society. However, this data also provided surprising evidence that, in direct contradiction to Western linear thinking and assumptions about the enormous economic power and benefit of vocational skills for its acquirer gained in VET, even full-time employment did not function as a tool for alleviating poverty and automatically raising the person's living standards. Nevertheless, as was evidenced by the lives of these VET trainees, who experienced positive, significant, sustainable economic, social, and personal education impacts due to the development project MHCC, these material and immaterial socio-economic impact chains were positive and productive and seemed to have had very far-reaching and significant ramifications for the lives of extended families, peers, community members, and the Tanzanian society. A case in point was the informal "private apprenticeship training system" offered by the former students to their relatives, peers and community members; through which one MHCC graduate has unofficially "trained" over 50 persons. Indeed, these socio-economic impacts of education could have been intensified by resourcing and carrying out evaluations frequently as well as by feeding their results forward for the VET institution's service improvements (e.g., equipment or entrepreneurial courses for VET graduates). Fourth, the research indicated that jobs in the developing countries were offered in the informal sector and self-employment was, for the majority of graduates, the sole option to be employed. Hence, NGO-implemented VET, with their essential income-generating projects for the institution's sustainability (generally lacking from government-owned VET centres), could operate as an excellent learning environment, strengthening the entrepreneurial spirit. The research findings might have the following applications. First, the worrying trend towards evaluation non-use and/or deficient use is worth acknowledging. Second, evaluation commissioners, initiators, funders, and donors need to gain further knowledge about significant positive or prohibitive contextual, evaluation and human factors (with their related elements) that lie behind evaluation utilisation and impact. For instance, those contextual factors which are related to financial and political constraints and evaluation systems and which negatively affect evaluation utilisation and impacts must be revealed. Third, an attack against the inadequate use of evaluations could be launched among others with processual evaluation use. Fourth, in every evaluation policy and plan in an evaluation commissioning phase, concrete actions need to be made necessary for evaluation utilisation. A written plan on evaluation use with evaluation impacts intended should be demanded to be produced from every evaluation conducted with public funds before the evaluation commissioning phase. Fifth, evaluation use in the vocabulary of evaluation policies and plans should be reconceptualised. All the available key elements of the evaluation use — the evaluation commissioning, evaluation process (not solely evaluation findings) — should be maximally harnessed at all the evaluation levels, also in NGOs, due to the scarcity of funding opportunities available for evaluations, to bring maximal value to a target of the evaluation, its stakeholders and evaluation users. Sixth, evaluation utilisation should be instructed, encouraged and funded. Evaluation stakeholders and their organisations should be rewarded by evaluation commissioners and funders, if the evaluation is used and it contributes to impacts. Seventh, terms such as evaluation impact/impacts need to be clarified, to refer not only to positive evaluation consequences but also to negative, unintended impacts, which must also be tackled.

Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) is an emerging multidisciplinary research area that aims to create an ecosystem of different types of sensors, computers, mobile devices, wireless networks, and software applications for enhanced living environments and occupational health. There are several challenges in the development and implementation of an effective AAL system, such as system architecture, human-computer interaction, ergonomics, usability, and accessibility. There are also social and ethical challenges, such as acceptance by seniors and the privacy and confidentiality that must be a requirement of AAL devices. It is also essential to ensure that technology does not replace human care and is used as a relevant complement. The Internet of Things (IoT) is a paradigm where objects are connected to the Internet and support sensing capabilities. IoT devices should be ubiquitous, recognize the context, and support intelligence capabilities closely related to AAL. Technological advances allow defining new advanced tools and platforms for real-time health monitoring and decision making in the treatment of various diseases. IoT is a suitable approach to building healthcare systems, and it provides a suitable platform for ubiquitous health services, using, for example, portable sensors to carry data to servers and smartphones for communication. Despite the potential of the IoT paradigm and technologies for healthcare systems, several challenges to be overcome still exist. The direction and impact of IoT in the economy are not clearly defined, and there are barriers to the immediate and ubiquitous adoption of IoT products, services, and solutions. Several sources of pollutants have a high impact on indoor living environments. Consequently, indoor air quality is recognized as a fundamental variable to be controlled for enhanced health and well-being. It is critical to note that typically most people occupy more than 90% of their time inside buildings, and poor indoor air quality negatively affects performance and productivity. Research initiatives are required to address air quality issues to adopt legislation and real-time inspection mechanisms to improve public health, not only to monitor public places, schools, and hospitals but also to increase the rigor of building rules. Therefore, it is necessary to use real-time monitoring systems for correct analysis of indoor air quality to ensure a healthy environment in at least public spaces. In most cases, simple interventions provided by homeowners can produce substantial positive impacts on indoor air quality, such as avoiding indoor smoking and the correct use of natural ventilation. An indoor air quality monitoring system helps the detection and improvement of air quality conditions. Local and distributed assessment of chemical concentrations is significant for safety (e.g., detection of gas leaks and monitoring of pollutants) as well as to control heating, ventilation, and HVAC systems to improve energy efficiency. Real-time indoor air quality monitoring provides reliable data for the correct control of building automation systems and should be assumed as a decision support platform on planning interventions for enhanced living environments. However, the monitoring systems currently available are expensive and only allow the collection of random samples that are not provided with time information. Most solutions on the market only allow data consulting limited to device memory and require procedures for downloading and manipulating data with specific software. In this way, the development of innovative environmental monitoring systems based on ubiquitous technologies that allow real-time analysis becomes essential. This thesis resulted in the design and development of IoT architectures using modular and scalable structures for air quality monitoring based on data collected from cost-effective sensors for enhanced living environments. The proposed architectures address several concepts, including acquisition, processing, storage, analysis, and visualization of data. These systems incorporate an alert management Framework that notifies the user in real-time in poor indoor air quality scenarios. The software Framework supports multiple alert methods, such as push notifications, SMS, and e-mail. The real-time notification system offers several advantages when the goal is to achieve effective changes for enhanced living environments. On the one hand, notification messages promote behavioral changes. These alerts allow the building manager to identify air quality problems and plan interventions to avoid unhealthy air quality scenarios. The proposed architectures incorporate mobile computing technologies such as mobile applications that provide ubiquitous air quality data consulting methods s. Also, the data is stored and can be shared with medical teams to support the diagnosis. The state-of-the-art analysis has resulted in a review article on technologies, applications, challenges, opportunities, open-source IoT platforms, and operating systems. This review was significant to define the IoT-based Framework for indoor air quality supervision. The research leads to the development and design of cost-effective solutions based on open-source technologies that support Wi-Fi communication and incorporate several advantages such as modularity, scalability, and easy installation. The results obtained are auspicious, representing a significant contribution to enhanced living environments and occupational health. Particulate matter (PM) is a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles of organic and inorganic substances suspended in the air. Moreover, it is considered the pollutant that affects more people. The most damaging particles to health are ≤PM10 (diameter 10 microns or less), which can penetrate and lodge deep within the lungs, contributing to the risk of developing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases as well as lung cancer. Taking into account the adverse health effects of PM exposure, an IoT architecture for automatic PM monitoring was proposed. The proposed architecture is a PM real-time monitoring system and a decision-making tool. The solution consists of a hardware prototype for data acquisition and a Web Framework developed in .NET for data consulting. This system is based on open-source and technologies, with several advantages compared to existing systems, such as modularity, scalability, low-cost and easy installation. The data is stored in a database developed in SQL SERVER using .NET Web services. The results show the ability of the system to analyze the indoor air quality in real-time and the potential of the Web Framework for the planning of interventions to ensure safe, healthy, and comfortable conditions. Associations of high concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) with low productivity at work and increased health problems are well documented. There is also a clear correlation between high levels of CO2 and high concentrations of pollutants in indoor air. There are sufficient reasons to monitor CO2 and provide real-time notifications to improve occupational health and provide a safe and healthy indoor living environment. Taking into account the significant influence of CO2 for enhanced living environments, a real-time IoT architecture for CO2 monitoring was proposed. CO2 was selected because it is easy to measure and is produced in quantity (by people and combustion equipment). It can be used as an indicator of other pollutants and, therefore, of air quality in general. The solution consists of a hardware prototype for data acquisition environment, a Web software, and a smartphone application for data consulting. The proposed architecture is based on open-source technologies, and the data is stored in a SQL SERVER database. The mobile Framework allows the user not only to consult the latest data collected but also to receive real-time notifications in poor indoor air quality scenarios, and to configure the alerts threshold levels. The results show that the mobile application not only provides easy access to real-time air quality data, but also allows the user to maintain parameter history and provide a history of changes. Consequently, this system allows the user to analyze in a precise and detailed manner the behavior of air quality. Finally, an air quality monitoring solution was implemented, consisting of a hardware prototype that incorporates only the MICS-6814 sensor as the detection unit. This system monitors various air quality parameters such as NH3 (ammonia), CO (carbon monoxide), NO2 (nitrogen dioxide), C3H8 (propane), C4H10 (butane), CH4 (methane), H2 (hydrogen) and C2H5OH (ethanol). The monitoring of the concentrations of these pollutants is essential to provide enhanced living environments. This solution is based on Cloud, and the collected data is sent to the ThingSpeak platform. The proposed Framework combines sensitivity, flexibility, and measurement accuracy in real-time, allowing a significant evolution of current air quality controls. The results show that this system provides easy, intuitive, and fast access to air quality data as well as relevant notifications in poor air quality situations to provide real-time intervention and improve occupational health. These data can be accessed by physicians to support diagnoses and correlate the symptoms and health problems of patients with the environment in which they live. As future work, the results reported in this thesis can be considered as a starting point for the development of a secure system sharing data with health professionals in order to serve as decision support in diagnosis. ; Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) é uma área de investigação multidisciplinar emergente que visa a construção de um ecossistema de diferentes tipos de sensores, microcontroladores, dispositivos móveis, redes sem fios e aplicações de software para melhorar os ambientes de vida e a saúde ocupacional. Existem muitos desafios no desenvolvimento e na implementação de um sistema AAL, como a arquitetura do sistema, interação humano-computador, ergonomia, usabilidade e acessibilidade. Existem também problemas sociais e éticos, como a aceitação por parte dos utilizadores mais vulneráveis e a privacidade e confidencialidade, que devem ser uma exigência de todos os dispositivos AAL. De facto, também é essencial assegurar que a tecnologia não substitua o cuidado humano e seja usada como um complemento essencial. A Internet das Coisas (IoT) é um paradigma em que os objetos estão conectados à Internet e suportam recursos sensoriais. Tendencialmente, os dispositivos IoT devem ser omnipresentes, reconhecer o contexto e ativar os recursos de inteligência ambiente intimamente relacionados ao AAL. Os avanços tecnológicos permitem definir novas ferramentas avançadas e plataformas para monitorização de saúde em tempo real e tomada de decisão no tratamento de várias doenças. A IoT é uma abordagem adequada para construir sistemas de saúde sendo que oferece uma plataforma para serviços de saúde ubíquos, usando, por exemplo, sensores portáteis para recolha e transmissão de dados e smartphones para comunicação. Apesar do potencial do paradigma e tecnologias IoT para o desenvolvimento de sistemas de saúde, muitos desafios continuam ainda por ser resolvidos. A direção e o impacto das soluções IoT na economia não está claramente definido existindo, portanto, barreiras à adoção imediata de produtos, serviços e soluções de IoT. Os ambientes de vida são caracterizados por diversas fontes de poluentes. Consequentemente, a qualidade do ar interior é reconhecida como uma variável fundamental a ser controlada de forma a melhorar a saúde e o bem-estar. É importante referir que tipicamente a maioria das pessoas ocupam mais de 90% do seu tempo no interior de edifícios e que a má qualidade do ar interior afeta negativamente o desempenho e produtividade. É necessário que as equipas de investigação continuem a abordar os problemas de qualidade do ar visando a adoção de legislação e mecanismos de inspeção que atuem em tempo real para a melhoraria da saúde e qualidade de vida, tanto em locais públicos como escolas e hospitais e residências particulares de forma a aumentar o rigor das regras de construção de edifícios. Para tal, é necessário utilizar mecanismos de monitorização em tempo real de forma a possibilitar a análise correta da qualidade do ambiente interior para garantir ambientes de vida saudáveis. Na maioria dos casos, intervenções simples que podem ser executadas pelos proprietários ou ocupantes da residência podem produzir impactos positivos substanciais na qualidade do ar interior, como evitar fumar em ambientes fechados e o uso correto de ventilação natural. Um sistema de monitorização e avaliação da qualidade do ar interior ajuda na deteção e na melhoria das condições ambiente. A avaliação local e distribuída das concentrações químicas é significativa para a segurança (por exemplo, deteção de fugas de gás e supervisão dos poluentes) bem como para controlar o aquecimento, ventilação, e sistemas de ar condicionado (HVAC) visando a melhoria da eficiência energética. A monitorização em tempo real da qualidade do ar interior fornece dados fiáveis para o correto controlo de sistemas de automação de edifícios e deve ser assumida com uma plataforma de apoio à decisão no que se refere ao planeamento de intervenções para ambientes de vida melhorados. No entanto, os sistemas de monitorização atualmente disponíveis são de alto custo e apenas permitem a recolha de amostras aleatórias que não são providas de informação temporal. A maioria das soluções disponíveis no mercado permite apenas a acesso ao histórico de dados que é limitado à memória do dispositivo e exige procedimentos de download e manipulação de dados com software proprietário. Desta forma, o desenvolvimento de sistemas inovadores de monitorização ambiente baseados em tecnologias ubíquas e computação móvel que permitam a análise em tempo real torna-se essencial. A Tese resultou na definição e no desenvolvimento de arquiteturas para monitorização da qualidade do ar baseadas em IoT. Os métodos propostos são de baixo custo e recorrem a estruturas modulares e escaláveis para proporcionar ambientes de vida melhorados. As arquiteturas propostas abordam vários conceitos, incluindo aquisição, processamento, armazenamento, análise e visualização de dados. Os métodos propostos incorporam Frameworks de gestão de alertas que notificam o utilizador em tempo real e de forma ubíqua quando a qualidade do ar interior é deficiente. A estrutura de software suporta vários métodos de notificação, como notificações remotas para smartphone, SMS (Short Message Service) e email. O método usado para o envio de notificações em tempo real oferece várias vantagens quando o objetivo é alcançar mudanças efetivas para ambientes de vida melhorados. Por um lado, as mensagens de notificação promovem mudanças de comportamento. De facto, estes alertas permitem que o gestor do edifício e os ocupantes reconheçam padrões da qualidade do ar e permitem também um correto planeamento de intervenções de forma evitar situações em que a qualidade do ar é deficiente. Por outro lado, o sistema proposto incorpora tecnologias de computação móvel, como aplicações móveis, que fornecem acesso omnipresente aos dados de qualidade do ar e, consequentemente, fornecem soluções completas para análise de dados. Além disso, os dados são armazenados e podem ser partilhados com equipas médicas para ajudar no diagnóstico. A análise do estado da arte resultou na elaboração de um artigo de revisão sobre as tecnologias, aplicações, desafios, plataformas e sistemas operativos que envolvem a criação de arquiteturas IoT. Esta revisão foi um trabalho fundamental na definição das arquiteturas propostas baseado em IoT para a supervisão da qualidade do ar interior. Esta pesquisa conduz a um desenvolvimento de arquiteturas IoT de baixo custo com base em tecnologias de código aberto que operam como um sistema Wi-Fi e suportam várias vantagens, como modularidade, escalabilidade e facilidade de instalação. Os resultados obtidos são muito promissores, representando uma contribuição significativa para ambientes de vida melhorados e saúde ocupacional. O material particulado (PM) é uma mistura complexa de partículas sólidas e líquidas de substâncias orgânicas e inorgânicas suspensas no ar e é considerado o poluente que afeta mais pessoas. As partículas mais prejudiciais à saúde são as ≤PM10 (diâmetro de 10 micrómetros ou menos), que podem penetrar e fixarem-se dentro dos pulmões, contribuindo para o risco de desenvolver doenças cardiovasculares e respiratórias, bem como de cancro do pulmão. Tendo em consideração os efeitos negativos para a saúde da exposição ao PM foi desenvolvido numa primeira fase uma arquitetura IoT para monitorização automática dos níveis de PM. Esta arquitetura é um sistema que permite monitorização de PM em tempo real e uma ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão. A solução é composta por um protótipo de hardware para aquisição de dados e um portal Web desenvolvido em .NET para consulta de dados. Este sistema é baseado em tecnologias de código aberto com várias vantagens em comparação aos sistemas existentes, como modularidade, escalabilidade, baixo custo e fácil instalação. Os dados são armazenados numa base de dados desenvolvida em SQL SERVER e são enviados com recurso a serviços Web. Os resultados mostram a capacidade do sistema de analisar em tempo real a qualidade do ar interior e o potencial da Framework Web para o planeamento de intervenções com o objetivo de garantir condições seguras, saudáveis e confortáveis. Associações de altas concentrações de dióxido de carbono (CO2) com défice de produtividade no trabalho e aumento de problemas de saúde encontram-se bem documentadas. Existe também uma correlação evidente entre altos níveis de CO2 e altas concentrações de poluentes no ar interior. Tendo em conta a influência significativa do CO2 para a construção de ambientes de vida melhorados desenvolveu-se uma solução de monitorização em tempo real de CO2 com base na arquitetura de IoT. A arquitetura proposta permite também o envio de notificações em tempo real para melhorar a saúde ocupacional e proporcionar um ambiente de vida interior seguro e saudável. O CO2 foi selecionado, pois é fácil de medir e é produzido em quantidade (por pessoas e equipamentos de combustão). Assim, pode ser usado como um indicador de outros poluentes e, portanto, da qualidade do ar em geral. O método proposto é composto por um protótipo de hardware para aquisição de dados, um software Web e uma aplicação smartphone para consulta de dados. Esta arquitetura é baseada em tecnologias de código aberto e os dados recolhidos são armazenados numa base de dados SQL SERVER. A Framework móvel permite não só consultar em tempo real os últimos dados recolhidos, receber notificações com o objetivo de avisar o utilizador quando a qualidade do ar está deficiente, mas também para configurar alertas. Os resultados mostram que a Framework móvel fornece não apenas acesso fácil aos dados da qualidade do ar em tempo real, mas também permite ao utilizador manter o histórico de parâmetros. Assim este sistema permite ao utilizador analisar de maneira precisa e detalhada o comportamento da qualidade do ar interior. Por último, é proposta uma arquitetura para monitorização de vários parâmetros da qualidade do ar, como NH3 (amoníaco), CO (monóxido de carbono), NO2 (dióxido de azoto), C3H8 (propano), C4H10 (butano), CH4 (metano), H2 (hidrogénio) e C2H5OH (etanol). Esta arquitetura é composta por um protótipo de hardware que incorpora unicamente o sensor MICS-6814 como unidade de deteção. O controlo das concentrações destes poluentes é extremamente relevante para proporcionar ambientes de vida melhorados. Esta solução tem base na Cloud sendo que os dados recolhidos são enviados para a plataforma ThingSpeak. Esta Framework combina sensibilidade, flexibilidade e precisão de medição em tempo real, permitindo uma evolução significativa dos atuais sistemas de monitorização da qualidade do ar. Os resultados mostram que este sistema fornece acesso fácil, intuitivo e rápido aos dados de qualidade do ar bem como notificações essenciais em situações de qualidade do ar deficiente de forma a planear intervenções em tempo útil e melhorar a saúde ocupacional. Esses dados podem ser acedidos pelos médicos para apoiar diagnósticos e correlacionar os sintomas e problemas de saúde dos pacientes com o ambiente em que estes vivem. Como trabalho futuro, os resultados reportados nesta Tese podem ser considerados um ponto de partida para o desenvolvimento de um sistema seguro para partilha de dados com profissionais de saúde de forma a servir de suporte à decisão no diagnóstico.

La población mundial, que cuenta dos mil millones de habitantes alrededor del año 1950, ha crecido a un ritmo casi exponencial en las décadas siguientes hasta 4 mil millones y 5,3 en 1990 (Naciones Unidas - Departamento de Asuntos Económicos y Sociales, 2010). Sin duda un gran aumento tanto en términos absolutos cuanto relativos. Según las estimaciones de las Naciones Unidas, la población mundial se estima que alcanzará los ocho millones y medio de 2025. Estas tasas de crecimiento se producen, obviamente, tanto en Europa, donde la población ha crecido de 550 millones en 1950 a 750 millones en 2010, y en Italia, donde en el período 1861 a 2008 hubo un aumento de la población de 22 millones de habitantes a casi 60 millones (fuente: ISTAT, 2010). La población ha crecido, sin embargo, a tasas más altas en los países en desarrollo, con una tendencia a la constante en los países industrializados en las últimas décadas. Dicha población mundial intenso tiene consecuencias directas sobre el territorio urbano, mientras que lleva a una extensión de las actuales áreas urbanas menores y pequeñas ciudades. Todo esto, cada vez más, dar lugar a problemas de gestión y uso del suelo, produciendo un crecimiento del componente de la vulnerabilidad en la ecuación de riesgo. Crecimiento de la población no justifica un aumento de las condiciones hidrogeológicas de la inestabilidad. Si es así, ya que la población se ha convertido en firme en los últimos años, al menos en la mayoría de los países industrializados, no hay que hacer frente a riesgos cada vez mayor. En cambio, el modelo de desarrollo económico, basado principalmente en redes e infraestructuras, así como los asentamientos, por supuesto, produce un doble efecto: un aumento de los activos expuestos a la amenaza, una presión sobre el territorio, capaz de hacer la activación de los fenómenos peligrosos más frecuentes. Los fenómenos naturales también tienen un impacto en el marco socio-económico, ya que son responsables de la pérdida de bienes y servicios y, en ocasiones, una pérdida en términos de vidas humanas. En tal situación, la vulnerabilidad de la zona está relacionado con el desarrollo de su sistema de infraestructura social, civil y urbano. Este concepto se expresa claramente en la declaración "Los desastres ocurren cuando los riesgos se encontra con la vulnerabilidad" (Wisner et al., 2004). Esto nos lleva a considerar los desastres naturales como los fenómenos sociales reales. Cuando se habla de riesgo geomorfologicos y de políticas ambientales, uno de los pioneros es, sin duda, Earl E. Brabb, que ya en 1991 en un artículo titulado "El problema de movimientos de ladera del mundo", sostuvo que los deslizamientos son un problema mundial que cientos causa de muertes y miles de millones de dólares de daño cada año en todo el mundo. Los poblemas geomorfológicos son y serán un tema importante y un requisito fundamental del conocimiento para la política de toma de decisiones. A pesar de 20 años han pasado desde que el trabajo Brabb, la situación no parece haber cambiado. No son aún insuficientes los procedimientos de todo el mundo aunque sólo sea compartida que permite evaluar la calidad y precisión de un inventario de deslizamientos o la forma de clasificar en términos de susceptibilidad a los deslizamientos de un área y para evaluar cuantitativa y cualitativamente el rendimiento predictivo. Las imágenes y escenas de devastación, destrucción y muerte que ocurren cada año, hacen que el problema de los riesgos geomorfológicos en un problema social. ¿Quien es el responsable? Seguimos construyendo, incluso en lugares que no son adecuados para la construcción. Tenemos que admitir por lo menos una doble responsabilidad. Si bien es cierto que los acontecimientos que causar un derrumbe apenas son "previsibles", por el contrario sí podemos identificar y predecir donde estos fenómenos se producen con mayor capacidad destructiva, produciendo más daños y reducir al mínimo la vulnerabilidad. Por lo tanto, si no es posible evitar, ya que no es posible predecir, la palabra clave debe ser "la prevención". Cada vez deslizamientos de tierra u otros eventos con características destructivas y letales, que a menudo se supone y se define como "impredecible", nos ofrece con el escenario de las víctimas, los heridos y desaparecidos, el público se estremece y recuerda la vulnerabilidad de los bienes de la comunidad y direciona la discusión sobre el tema de prevención de los desastres naturales o por lo menos tratar de minimizar las consecuencias trágicas que lo acompañan. La ola emocional que sigue a la fase de emergencia se produce entre las llamadas a "enrollar las mangas" a una "cultura de prevención" que "nunca vuelva a suceder", e induce a los legisladores y los técnicos para intervenir con una variedad de medidas urgentes de mitigación y obras y de intervención inmediata, tal vez proponiendo también las regulaciones y leyes dirigidas a "evitar otro desastre similar". Hoy Saponara, ayer Génova, el día antes Giampilieri y San Fratello y así sucesivamente durante décadas: Salerno (1954) con 318 víctimas, 250 heridos y sin hogar cerca de 5.500, y el Longarone y el desastre de Vajont (1963) con cerca de 2.000 muertes de Agrigento, (1966), Valtellina (1987) 53 muertes y 4.000 millones de liras de los daños, el deslizamiento de tierra en el Val di Stava de julio de 1985 (269 muertos), las corrientes rápidas del 5 de mayo de 1998 y Sarno y Quindici y otras áreas de la región Campania, con 153 muertes, Maierato (2010), son algunos de los eventos más importantes que lleva a más de 4.000 las muertes causadas por movimientos gravitativos en medio siglo, un promedio de 4 muertes por mes, además de un daño económico incalculable. Pero cada día hay una lista de los deslizamientos de tierra, carreteras y puentes bajando, a pesar de que pasa desapercibido. A falta de una cultura de prevención y un aumento de la cultura de emergencia en su lugar. Y la protección civil se ve ahora como la única ancla de salvación y la asistencia de los municipios y la población involucrada. Italia es un País que se desmorona debido a la negligencia del hombre y a la falta de prevención. Hay 5,596 sobre 8,101 municipios en riesgo hidrogeológico, el 84% de los centros de población se define en riesgo. Esto sin duda demuestra que las construcciones se construyeron cuando no se podia. De estos municipios, 1.700 (alrededor del 21%) están en riesgo de deslizamientos, 1.285 (casi el 16%) en riesgo de inundación y 2.596 (32%) se encuentran en una combinación de deslizamientos de tierra y riesgo de inundación. El área total clasificada como de alto riesgo asciende a 36.551 km2 (7,1% del total nacional) dividido en km2 de áreas de deslizamientos de tierra y 7.791 km2 de áreas inundadas 13.760. Estas cifras ponen de relieve la inestabilidad hidrogeológica con el que cada región debe enfrentar, tarde o temprano, contra la cual el flujo de millones de euros, a menudo sólo le prometió, no servirá de mucho para la estabilización y obras de medida de seguridad. El informe de Legambiente revela que los municipios son la punta de lanza de una evidente debilidad de nuestro territorio. No hay una única manera de preparar los mapas de susceptibilidad, como lo demuestra la enorme cantidad de artículos científicos producidos incluso durante la última década, y lo mismo es cierto en cuanto a la zonificación de los peligros y los riesgos involucrados, todavía sigue siendo un problema sin resolver en gran medida (Carrara et al., 2009). La contribución de este trabajo las siguientes fases de un estudio con el fin de definir la estructura de la sensibilidad, los riesgos y peligros de un área: 1. Construcción de la base de datos: en este trabajo las diferentes técnicas y métodos de detección de deslizamiento de tierra y delimitación se comparan directamente (trabajo de campo) e indirectamente (fotografías aéreas, software de visualización remota del territorio) y su posterior despliegue en un sistema GIS. 2 Elección y definición de la escala de análisis: De hecho, uno de los problemas más actuales de la proposición se relaciona con los métodos de evaluación de susceptibilidad a escala múltiple. 3 Unidades cartográficas: las diferentes unidades se utilizan para la cartografía y zonificación del territorio, cuya previsión de resultados se comparan con el fin de ser capaces de identificar las unidades de la asignación básica más adecuada para la planificación y para fines de defensa civil, teniendo en cuenta la exactitud científica de que la modelo debe soportar. 4 Elección de los factores control: en el trabajo, es la posibilidad de identificar el conjunto más probable de los factores que se consideran relacionados directamente o indirectamente a la inestabilidad de la ladera. Se proponen procedimientos de prueba y seleccionar el conjunto de posibles factores de control, así como la construcción de modelos específicos para cada tipo de deslizamientos. 5 Construcción de modelos: como para la construcción de un modelo geo-estadístico, las soluciones se comparan diferentes y el modelo de presentación de los mismos resultados y la objetividad que se elija, teniendo en cuenta que las necesidades de una implementación más bajo en términos de costo y tiempo. 6 Validación: los modelos están sujetos a diferentes técnicas de validación, que luego se comparan entre ellos. 7 Exportación espacial de un modelo de susceptibilidad: este es un ensayo para definir y validar los términos de susceptibilidad a los deslizamientos de una amplia zona en los gustos de cientos o miles de kilómetros cuadrados, en base a los estudios de detalle de algunos sectores que lo representan. Al igual que muchos otros autores, con el propósito de este trabajo es hacer una contribución a la comunidad científica, tratando de ofrecer una modesta contribución en la solución de algunos problemas en este campo a través de experimentos y modelos realizados en una variedad de contextos y comparar los resultados entre ellos. En este sentido, unas pruebas se llevaron a cabo en algunas áreas, previamente seleccionadas, será probado y verificado el resultado de algunos de los procedimientos en los años de investigación doctoral. A continuación, un resumen de los resultados vendrán de estas pruebas experimentales TEST 1a: TUMMARRANO river basin: Model Exportation En el marco de un estudio de la susceptibilidad de deslizamientos regional en el sur de Sicilia, una prueba se ha realizado en la cuenca del río Tumarrano (unos 80 km2) tiene como objetivo caracterizar las condiciones de su susceptibilidad movimientos de ladera mediante la exportación de un modelo, definido y entrenado en el interior un número limitado (unos 20 km2) representativas del sector ("el área de origen''). Además, la posibilidad de explotar software de Google Earth y el banco de datos de fotos para producir imágenes de los archivos deslizamiento de tierra ha sido comprobado. El modelo de susceptibilidad se define, de acuerdo con un enfoque multifactorial basadas en el análisis condicional, con unidades únicas condiciones (UCUs), los cuales fueron obtenidos mediante la combinación de cuatro factores seleccionados control: litología afloramiento, la pendiente, la curvatura del plan y el índice de humedad topográfica. La capacidad de predicción del modelo de exportación, formado con 206 deslizamientos de tierra, se compara con la estimada para toda el área estudiada, mediante el uso de un archivo completo de deslizamiento de tierra (703 deslizamientos de tierra), para ver hasta qué punto el mayor tiempo/dinero necesario se tienen en cuenta los costos para. TEST 1b. Tummarrano river basin: modelo de susceptibilidad basado en la Forward logistic regression La regresión logística con pasòs hacia adelante, nos ha permitido obtener un modelo de susceptibilidad por los flujos de tierra en la cuenca del río Tumarrano, que se definió mediante el modelado de las relaciones estadísticas entre un archivo de eventos 760 y un conjunto de 20 variables predictoras. Para cada movimiento del inventario, un punto de identificación de deslizamientos (LIP) se produce de forma automática, como corresponde al punto más alto a lo largo de la frontera de los polígonos de deslizamientos de tierra. Los modelos equilibrados (760 stable/760 inestable) se presentaron a adelante el procedimiento de regresión logística. Una estrategia de construcción del modelo se aplicó para ampliar la zona considerada en la preparación del modelo y para comprobar la sensibilidad de los modelos de regresión con respecto a los lugares específicos de las células se considera estable. Un conjunto de dieciséis modelos se preparó de forma aleatoria extraer los subconjuntos diferentes céldas estables. Los modelos fueron sometidos a regresión logística y validado. Los resultados mostraron que las tasas de error satisfactoria y estable (0,236 en promedio, con una desviación estándar de 0,007) y AUC (0.839, para la formación, y 0.817, para conjuntos de datos de prueba). Como en relación a los predictores, la pendiente en el barrio de las células y la curvatura topográfica de gran perfil y plan local-fueron seleccionados de forma sistemática. Litología arcillosa afloramiento, drenajes midslope, crestas locales y midslope y los accidentes geográficos cañones eran también muy frecuentes (de 8 a 15 veces) en los modelos de la selección hacia adelante. La estrategia de construcción del modelo nos ha permitido producir un modelo de flujo de tierra realizando la susceptibilidad, cuyo modelo de ajuste, la predicción de la habilidad y solidez se estimaron sobre la base de los procedimientos de validación. Test 2. Imera river basin: modelo de susceptibilidad por flujo de tierra basado en las unidades de ladera. Un mapa de susceptibilidad de un área, que es representativa en términos de marco geológico y los fenómenos de inestabilidad de ladera de grandes sectores de los Apeninos de Sicilia, fue producida usando unidades de ladera y un modelo multiparamétrico univariado. La zona de estudio, que se extiende por aproximadamente 90 km2, fue dividida en 774 unidades de la pendiente, cuya ocurrencia esperada avalancha se estimó un promedio de siete valores de vulnerabilidad, determinado para el control de los factores seleccionados: litología, pendiente media del gradiente, SPI en el pie, el índice de humedad topográfica y la curvatura del perfil, y el rango de altitud. Cada uno de los reconocidos 490 deslizamientos de tierra estuvo representada por su punto de centro de gravedad. Sobre la base de análisis condicional, la función de la susceptibilidad aquí adoptada es la densidad, calculado para cada clase. Modelos univariante fueron preparados para cada uno de los factores que controlan, y su rendimiento predictivo se estimó por curvas de tipos de predicción y la relación de efectividad aplicada a la categorías de vulnerabilidad. Este procedimiento nos permitió discriminar entre factores efectivos y no efectivos, de modo que sólo la primera se combinó posteriormente en un modelo multiparamétrico, que fue utilizada para producir el mapa de susceptibilidad final. la validación de este último mapa nos permite comprobar el rendimiento y la fiabilidad de la predicción modelo. Los principales factores reguladores resultaron: la litología y, subordinadamente, el SPI a el pies de la unidad, y tambien el gradiente medio de la pendiente, la curvatura del perfil, y el índice de humedad topográfica dieron resultados satisfactorios. ; The World population, which counted two billion inhabitants around 1950, has grown at an almost exponential rate in the following decades up to four billion in 1980 and 5,3 in 1990 (United Nations – Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2010). Definitely a high increase both in absolute and relative terms. According to estimates by the United Nations, the World population is estimated to reach eight billion and a half around 2025 (Chart 1.1), and then it will become steady around ten billion in 2050 because of the expected decline in fertility. These growing rates occur, obviously, both in Europe, where population has grown from 550 million in 1950 to 750 million in 2010, and in Italy, where in the period from 1861 to 2008 there was a surge in population from 22 million inhabitants to almost 60 million, (source: ISTAT, 2010). The population has grown, however, at higher rates in developing Countries (Fig. 1.1), with a tendency to become steady in industrialized Countries in the last decades. Such an intense world population has direct consequences on urban territory while leading to a spread of current minor urban areas and small towns. All this will, increasingly, result in management and land use problems, producing a growth of the vulnerability component in the risk equation. Population growth alone does not justify an increase of hydro-geological conditions of instability. If so, since the population has become steady in recent years, at least in most industrialized countries, we should not face increasing risks. Instead, the economic development model, largely based on networks and infrastructures, as well as settlements of course, produces a double effect: an increase of assets exposed to threat; a stress on the territory, able to make the activation of hazardous phenomena more frequently. It is however true that recent disasters with great loss of lives (i.e., Sarno Giampilieri, Aulla, Genova and Saponara) are actually the results of the response (letting nature take its course) to the changes in territorial asset occurred after the war. Another cause may be found in environmental changes: when the stress regime in a region changes (such as extraordinary rainfall intensity), the response is obviously new for both sides/slopes and the population. The WWF notes that from 1956 to 2001, urbanized areas in Italy have increased by 500 times and it is estimated that from 1990 to 2005 we have transformed 3.5 million hectares of land. The problem of interaction between humans and the natural environment is a very complex and diversified issue, not often approached in a systematic way, also because of the severe limitations of sources to be invested on research on a medium and long-term, for a better and effective knowledge of the environment, primarily on measures aimed at reducing risk (Plattner, 2005). Natural phenomena also have an impact within the social-economic framework as they are responsible for the loss of goods and services, and sometimes, a loss in terms of lives. In such a situation, the vulnerability of the area is related to the development of its social, civil, and urban infrastructural system. This concept is well expressed in the statement "disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability" (Wisner et al., 2004). This leads us to consider natural disasters as real social phenomena. This condition is strongly valid especially with regard to landslides (Brabb and Harrod, 1989; Brabb, 1991). Since economic problems common to all countries do not allow either to invest in research projects on a medium and long-term or the stabilization of structures or areas on a large-scale, a new philosophy of environmental policy opens up for all active political and administrative subjects that should govern the use and exploitation of the territory. For this reason, the scientific community is engaged in a continuous search for methods and techniques to estimate the degree of real and potential instability, using the minimum amount of equipment and possible economic resources. Usually there is a substantial difficulty in identifying the most reliable procedures, that allow to approach this matter in a non-traditional manner based on modeling and investigative techniques built on the exchange of experiences between experts and conducting studies and experiments on all continents, and showing different strategies and possible technical combinations depending on the type and/or the number and complexity of the investigation, producing susceptibility, hazard and risk maps, used as the basis for decision-making processes in land management. In this framework, further efforts are needed in trying to make the different methods more objective and shared by all in order to be simple and reproducible, and most of all in transferring the knowledge gained in laws that underpin territorial planning, building regulations, and in civil defense plans (Guzzetti, 2006). When discussing about landslides and environmental policies, one of the pioneers is undoubtedly Earl E. Brabb, who already in 1991 in a paper entitled "The World Landslide Problem", sustained that landslides are a worldwide problem that cause hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars of damage every year all over the world. The same added that these losses can be reduced if the problem is identified and acknowledged in time, but many countries are simply equipped with maps showing where landslides produced problems in the past and they have even less susceptibility maps that could allow policy makers control land use. Landslides, adds Brabb, are generally more predictable and controllable than other natural events of catastrophic nature such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and storms, but despite this, few countries have taken advantage of this knowledge to reduce landslide hazard. Geomorphological problems are and will be an important issue and a fundamental requirement of knowledge for the politics of decision-making. Although 20 years have gone by since Brabb's work, the situation does not seem to have changed. There are still insufficient globally shared procedures even just allowing to assess the quality and accuracy of a landslide inventory or how to classify in terms of landslide susceptibility of an area and to evaluate quantitatively and qualitatively predictive performance. 1.2 Basic concepts One of the most obvious effects of rapid territory development in the past decades is the increasing impact that natural disasters have on man and his activities. Institutions are therefore committed to investing their resources in both the implementation of structural interventions to mitigate the risk as well as implementation of early warning systems and defining guidelines for land management; the latter activities allow, in fact, to avoid or minimize damage to persons and property, produced by natural phenomena, without necessarily investing in expensive resources and long structural interventions. The term "risk" is used in relation to the various components of the social and territorial fabric, as an expression of the expected consequences in the assets as a result of this disastrous phenomenon of assigned intensity at a given time interval. Within the guidelines for the preparation of prevention and management plans in terms of geological risk of the Sicilian Civil Protection Service (Regional Hydro-geological and Environmental Risks department), the term Hydro-geological Risk means the effect on different parts of the territory led by natural disasters such as landslides (geomorphological risk) and floods (hydraulic risks) triggered by events related to climate and its changes. Two main components contribute to the definition of risk: territorial hazard (geomorphological and hydraulic) and vulnerability. The latter depends on both the physical resistance of structures or assets exposed to the threat and the so-called vulnerability of social organization, which is linked, in fact, to the capacity of disaster prevention and management that a community has developed prior to the same disaster. The propensity of a territory to be affected by new landslides, the degree of hazard or risk that characterizes it, are usually expressed with the help of a map in which the area is divided into different zones according to the different values that qualify it. In this mapping, the territory is zoned or divided into homogeneous zones or user-defined fields/areas, whose ranking is defined according to their real or potential degree of landslide hazard (Varnes, 1984). Over the decades, many research groups and national and international commissions have tried to provide precise definitions, trying to reduce the existing confusion of terms in the management of natural hazards. In this section, some basic concepts are expressed as well as the terminology that will be used in the thesis below. Landslide events that develop in a given area involve a large number of environmental variables, to determine undoubted difficulties in identifying a suitable action of management, control and planning. In order to do so, understanding the problem without having a clear conceptual framework and method to be used may not be sufficient. The "forecast" of the phenomena and therefore the modeling phase is always required to designated public administration bodies and territorial control, carried out by the creation of digital simulation models which become crucial at the time when decisions must be taken/made. The creation of maps indicating the different vocation planning of an area, based for example on landslide hazard maps, not only allows you to compose the scene of the incident consequences of a given failure, but also to react under emergency, if magnitude, area, and associated potential damage are known. Planning is a subject which studies and regulates the processes of local governance and to evaluate the resulting dynamics of evolution and development. The principles guiding the choice of planning require development policies coherent with the principles of environmental protection and sustainability in an effort to control the excessive human presence, able to transform irreversibly natural systems and preserve the quality of life for future generations. Information, territorial knowledge and assessment of its natural predisposition and vulnerability are the basis of planning. These forms of knowledge and the use and application of the best technologies available to facilitate information processing and optimization of procedures for evaluation and zoning of the territory, will yield the best design solutions to achieve the desired objectives. Planning is aimed to government land use and management of spatial information, and is achieved by regulating the area according to different uses, which should be awarded taking into account the natural predispositions. Planning activities can affect a large portion of territory, in other words include a supra-municipal area or one that does not match with administrative boundaries (e.g. Provincial Territorial Coordination Plan, Hydro-geological Plan) or urban (e.g. General Regulation Plan). The geological, geomorphological, hydro-geological and seismic component should be placed at the base of the strategic development of the territory. In national legislation, water management is understood both as a natural resource but also as an element of risk, and has been regulated at the watershed level since the nineties (national framework law 183/89 on soil protection). This allow us to overcome divisions and inconsistencies produced by the adoption of targeted areas having only administrative boundaries that, therefore, do not take into account natural dynamics. The zoning of landslide hazard area is considered the most effective level of knowledge for territorial planning and territorial governance purposes. A map showing portions of an area classified as "hazardous" is of great importance due to the fact that these areas are subject to limitations and constraints that also affect the usability or simply the economic value. 1.2.1 Landslides and soil protection Italy, besides having a territory particularly prone to heavily collapse, has a highly populated territory with a density of 189 inhabitants per km2, much higher than France (114 inhabitants/km2) and Spain (89 inhabitants/km2), in Lombardy and Campania respectively, the density changes to 379 and 420 inhabitants per km2. As clear from the Report on landslides in Italy (National Geological Survey, 2007), commissioned by the ISPRA (National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research), in the last 50 years almost 500 thousand landslides have been recognized and recorded for an area of about 20 thousand km2, corresponding to 6.6% of the entire national territory. These data should be updated. As indicated by the last study conducted by the Ministry of the Environment (2010), 9.8% of the national area is to be ranked highly hydro-geological critical and 6.633 municipalities are involved, representing 81.9 percent of the national territory. This value, according to a report EURISPES ( Report Italy, 2010) is "largely underestimated", therefore agreeing that "a reliable estimate is made up of about 2 million phenomena and consequently the percentage of the Italian territory subject to ongoing phenomena is more than 20%." The Ministry of Environment, through the work for the realization of development plans undertaken by the hydrogeological Basin Authority, estimated a funding requirement of almost 40 billion euros to hydro-geologically secure the entire country, and 4.1 billion for more urgent works. Undoubtedly, the amounts are considerably high, but it is enough to consider that almost 21 billion euros were spent just to stanch the damages by hydro-geological disasters occurred in the decade 1994-2004. 1.3 Aims and scientific contribution There is no single way to prepare susceptibility maps, as evidenced by the enormous amount of scientific papers produced even during the last decade, and the same is true as for the zoning of the hazard and risk involved, still remaining a largely unsolved problem (Carrara et al., 2009). The contribution of this paper the following phases of a study in order to define the susceptibility structure, hazard and risk of an area. 1 Construction of the landslide database: in this work different techniques and methods of landslide detection and delimitation are compared, directly (field work) and indirectly (aerial photographs, remote viewing software of the territory) and their subsequent deployment in a GIS system. 2 Choice and definition of the analysis scale: the problem of scale models of susceptibility is approached. In fact, one of the most actual problems of the proposition is related to approaches to multi-scale susceptibility evaluation. 3 Mapping units: different units are used for mapping and zoning of the territory, whose foresight results are compared in order to be able to identify the basic mapping units most suitable for planning and for civil defense purposes, taking into account the scientific accuracy that the model must bear. 4 Choice of controlling factors: during the work, it is the possible to identify the most probable set of factors considered to be directly or indirectly related to the instability of the slope. Procedures for testing and selecting the set of possible controlling factors are proposed as well as the construction of specific models for each type of landslide. 5 Model building: as for the construction of a geo-statistical model, different solutions are compared and the model presenting the same results and objectivity is chosen, considering it needs a lower implementation in terms of cost and time. 6 Validation: models are subject to different validation techniques, which are then compared to each other. 7 Spatial exporting of a landslide susceptibility model: this is a trial to define and validate the terms of landslide susceptibility for a wide area in the likes of hundreds or thousands of square kilometers, based on studies of some fields that represent it. Having clear that the result of this type of study is intended to provide maps that can be used by planners in a useful manner, these must be characterized by an immediacy in understanding even by non-experts and they must also be easy to read and interpret. Therefore, these methods should be as simple as possible, for example, susceptibility levels must be clearly expressed not only in quantitative but also in descriptive terms (Clerici et al., 2010). Like many other authors, the purpose of this work is to make a contribution to the scientific community by trying to offer a modest contribution in solving some problems in this field through experiments and modeling carried out in a range of contexts and comparing the results between them.