Suchergebnisse

BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. ; Funding: We thank the countless individuals who have contributed to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015 in various capacities. We specifically thank Jeffrey Eaton and John Stover. HW and CJLM received funding for this study from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the National Institute of Mental Health, National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01MH110163); and the National Institute on Aging, NIH (P30AG047845). LJAR acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 04-924-3-251) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation effort. BPAQ acknowledges institutional support from PRONABEC (National Program of Scholarship and Educational Loan), provided by the Peruvian government. DB is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number OPP1068048). JDN was supported in his contribution to this work by a Fellowship from Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/92934/2013). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust Fellowship in Public Health and Tropical Medicine (grant number 099876). TF received financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF; project number P300P3-154634). AG acknowledges funding from Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panama-SNI. PJ is supported by Wellcome Trust-DBT India Alliance Clinical and Public Health Intermediate Fellowship. MK receives research support from the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council, Alzheimerfonden, Alzheimer's Research & Prevention Foundation, Center for Innovative Medicine (CIMED) at Karolinska Institutet South Campus, AXA Research Fund, Wallenberg Clinical Scholars Award from the Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Foundation, and the Sheika Salama Bint Hamdan Al Nahyan Foundation. AK's work was supported by the Miguel Servet contract financed by the CP13/00150 and PI15/00862 projects, integrated into the National R&D&I and funded by the ISCIII (General Branch Evaluation and Promotion of Health Research), and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF-FEDER). SML is funded by a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Fellowship (grant number NIHR/CS/010/014). HJL reports grants from the NIHR, EU Innovative Medicines Initiative, Centre for Strategic & International Studies, and WHO. WM is Program analyst, Population and Development, in the Peru Country Office of the United Nations Population Fund, which does not necessarily endorse this study. For UOM, funding from the German National Cohort Consortium (O1ER1511D) is gratefully acknowledged. KR reports grants from NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Career Development Fellowship, and Oxford Martin School during the conduct of the study. GR acknowledges that work related to this paper has been done on the behalf of the GBD Genitourinary Disease Expert Group supported by the International Society of Nephrology (ISN). ISS reports grants from FAPESP (Brazilian public agency). RSS receives institutional support from Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, UDCA, Bogota Colombia. SS receives postdoctoral funding from the Fonds de la recherche en sante du Quebec (FRSQ), including its renewal. RTS was supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI14/00894 from ISCIII-FEDER. PY acknowledges support from Strategic Public Policy Research (HKU7003-SPPR-12).

Sport has been increasingly recognized in social policy as a means of steering social change and as a method for responding to diverse social problems. The present study examines how rationales of social change are formed through 'sport as a means of responding to social problems'. Four research questions are posed: (1) How is it that sport can be thought of and articulated as a means of responding to social problems? (2) How are sport practices assumed to operate as a means of responding to social problems? (3) How are social problems represented when sport is promoted as a means of response? (4) What conduct, subjectivity and citizen competences are shaped within this regime of practice? The study focuses on the government of subjects' conduct, the formation of community and delineation of domains subjected to social change. The gradual shifts in the governmental rationality of the Swedish welfare state provide a framework for the study. Two kinds of empirical material are investigated. Initially, scientific knowledge is analysed; after this, a sport-based intervention, conducted in cooperation between a social entrepreneur, municipality and local sport clubs, is examined. In relation to scientific discourse, research on sport for social objectives would benefit from more theoretically driven constructionist perspectives related to welfare state transformations. In scientific discourse, rationales of social change in sport are conceived of as individual attainment of skills, competences and powers that are presumably transferable to other social spheres. Such discourse represents problems as individual problems. With respect to the sport-based intervention, individual change is promoted by representatives of the social entrepreneur in terms of providing subjects with motivational powers, which are shaped by role models and applied in "choosing the right track". By representing problems as risks, avoidance is formed as an individual opportunity. This positions subjects as being responsible for their own welfare and inclusion. Municipal policy makers view the intervention as a way to form community and social cohesion in response to tensions in society. They present sport (and the social entrepreneur) as a way to mobilize and activate civil society – which is associated with the potency of voluntarism, authentic leadership and personal relations based on common identity. Consequently, responsibility for responding to social problems is spread and elements of de-professionalized social work are imposed. To conclude, sport is conceptualized as a means of responding to social problems because sport practices are associated with individual agency and with an active civil society and moral community. The technologies and rationality of social change point out 'the self', 'the community' and 'the place' as locations where social change is possible, rather than the whole of society. For instance, the technologies of social change are based on activation and responsibilization of 'the self' and of 'the community'. These rationales of social change are based on a critique of welfarist governmentality and of the idea of governing from 'the social' point of view. Arguably, such discourse obscures more profound social reform. The study provides some empirical explorations illustrating how a range of tendencies and mutations in the governmental rationality of the welfare state and of social work are manifested in 'sport as a means of responding to social problems'. ; De senaste åren har idrott alltmer kommit att betraktas som ett socialpolitiskt verktyg med förväntningar om att åstadkomma social förändring och bidra till att lösa sociala problem. I den här avhandlingen undersöks hur den sociala förändringens rationalitet formas i relation till idén om 'idrott som en lösning på sociala problem'. Detta görs genom fyra frågeställningar: (1) Hur har idrott blivit möjligt att betrakta som en lösning på sociala problem? (2) Hur förmodas idrott i praktiken fungera som en lösning på sociala problem? (3) Hur representeras sociala problem när idrott lyfts fram som en lösning? (4) Vilken typ av uppförande, subjektivitet och medborgerliga färdigheter fostras genom att använda idrott som en lösning på social problem? Särskilt fokuseras på styrning av individers uppförande, skapande av gemenskap och sammanhållning samt gränsskapande kring vilka domäner som kan utsättas för förändring. Undersökningarna relateras till mer övergripande förändringar i den svenska välfärdsstatens styrningsrationalitet. Två empiriska material har undersökts: dels den vetenskapliga diskursen, dels olika företrädares beskrivningar av en idrottsbaserad välfärdsintervention för unga i risk för problem och exkludering, en verksamhet som sker i samverkan mellan en social entreprenör, kommun och föreningsliv. Avhandlingen pekar på vikten av teoretiskt driven forskning med konstruktionistiska perspektiv relaterade till välfärdsstatens och socialpolitikens förändring. I den vetenskapliga diskursen lyfts social förändring fram med avseende på individuell förändring genom tillägnande av färdigheter som antas kunna användas även i andra sociala sammanhang. Denna förståelse iscensätter de adresserade problemen som individuella problem. I idrottsledarnas beskrivningar av den sociala interventionen kan ungdomar motiveras individuellt, bygga självförtroende och självkänsla, genom att identifiera sig med positiva förebilder och ledare. Detta blir viktigt för att kunna "välja rätt väg i livet". Genom att framställa problem som risker blir de möjliga för individen att undvika. Detta positionerar ungdomarna som själva ansvariga för sin välfärd och inkludering. I politikernas beskrivningar lyfts idrotten fram som ett sätt att skapa gemenskap och sammanhållning som ett svar på spänningar och oro. Genom idrotten (och den sociala entreprenören) kan man mobilisera civilsamhällets föreningsliv vilket associeras med frivillighet, autentiskt ledarskap samt personliga och moraliska band baserade på gemensam identitet. Därmed kan ansvaret för att hantera sociala problem spridas mellan olika aktörer, något som även kan bidra till informalisering och de-professionalisering av det sociala arbetet. Sammanfattningsvis kan idrott konceptualiseras som en lösning på sociala problem därför att dess praktiker associeras med individuell aktivering samt med ett aktivt civilsamhälle som bygger på moralisk fostran och gemenskap. Den sociala förändringens teknologier och rationalitet pekar ut 'självet', 'gemenskapen' och 'platsen' som de domäner där förändring bedöms vara möjlig. Den sociala förändringens rationalitet bygger på aktivering och ansvarsgörande av 'självet' och 'gemenskapen'. Styrningsrationaliteten bygger på en långtgående kritik av välfärdsstatens sätt att styra där samhället i sin helhet betraktas som målpunkt. Genom sådan diskurs skyms mer genomgående samhällsförändringar. Avhandlingen utforskar empiriskt och illustrerar hur en rad tendenser och mutationer i välfärdsstatens styrningsrationalitet och i det sociala arbetet kommer till uttryck genom 'idrott som en lösning på sociala problem'.

Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. ; Published version ; ROA is funded by the National Institutes of Health (U01HG010273). SMA acknowledges the International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia and Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University for the approval and support to participate in this research project. AAw acknowledges funding support from Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, New Delhi, through INSPIRE Faculty scheme. TBA acknowledges partial funding from the Institute of Medical Research and Medicinal Plant Studies. ABa is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. TWB was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor Award, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. MSBS acknowledges support from the Australian Government Research and Training Program scholarship for a PhD degree at the Australian National University, Australia. JJC is supported by the Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation. FCar is supported by the European Union (FEDER funds POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007728 and POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265) and National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia and Ministério da Educação e Ciência) under the Partnership Agreements PT2020 UID/MULTI/04378/2013 and PT2020UID/QUI/50006/2013. EC is supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT3 140100085). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust [Grant Number 201900] as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. EF is supported by the European Union (FEDER funds POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007728 and POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265) and National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia and Ministério da Educação e Ciência) under the Partnership Agreements PT2020 UID/MULTI/04378/2013 and PT2020UID/QUI/50006/2013. SMSI is funded by the Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition (IPAN), Deakin University and received funding from High Blood Pressure Research Council of Australia. YKa is a DBT/Wellcome Trust India Alliance Fellow in Public Health. YJK is supported by the Office of Research and Innovation at Xiamen University Malaysia. BL acknowledges funding from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. WDL is supported in part by U10NS086484 NINDS. SLo is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (nutriCARD, grant agreement number 01EA1411A). RML is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia Senior Research Fellowship. AMa and the Imperial College London are grateful for support from the NW London NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care. JJM is supported by the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship), and the John Cade Fellowship (APP1056929) from NHMRC. TMei acknowledges additional institutional support from the Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health (nutriCARD), Jena-Halle-Leipzig. IMV is supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (Panama). MOO is supported by SIREN U54 U54HG007479 and SIBS Genomics R01NS107900 grants. AMS was supported by a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. MMSM acknowledges the support from the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Republic of Serbia (contract no 175087). AShe is supported by Health Data Research UK. MBS' work on traumatic brain injury is supported by grants NIH U01 NS086090 (PI G Manley) from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and DoD W81XWH-14–2-0176 (PI G Manley) from the United States Department of Defense. RTS is supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIIIFEDER. AGT was supported by a Fellowship from the NHMRC (Australia; 1042600. KBT acknowledges funding supports from the Maurice Wilkins Centre for Biodiscovery, Cancer Society of New Zealand, Health Research Council, Gut Cancer Foundation, and the University of Auckland. CY acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 81773552) and the Chinese NSFC International Cooperation and Exchange Program (grant number 71661167007).

Publisher´s version (útgefin grein). ; Background Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. ; ROA is funded by the National Institutes of Health (U01HG010273). SMA acknowledges the International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia and Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University for the approval and support to participate in this research project. AAw acknowledges funding support from Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, New Delhi, through INSPIRE Faculty scheme. TBA acknowledges partial funding from the Institute of Medical Research and Medicinal Plant Studies. ABa is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. TWB was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor Award, funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research. MSBS acknowledges support from the Australian Government Research and Training Program scholarship for a PhD degree at the Australian National University, Australia. JJC is supported by the Swedish Heart and Lung Foundation. FCar is supported by the European Union (FEDER funds POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007728 and POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265) and National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia and Ministerio da Educacao e Ciencia) under the Partnership Agreements PT2020 UID/MULTI/04378/2013 and PT2020UID/QUI/50006/2013. EC is supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT3 140100085). KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust [Grant Number 201900] as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. EF is supported by the European Union (FEDER funds POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007728 and POCI/01/0145/FEDER/007265) and National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia and Ministerio da Educacao e Ciencia) under the Partnership Agreements PT2020 UID/MULTI/04378/2013 and PT2020UID/QUI/50006/2013. SMSI is funded by the Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition (IPAN), Deakin University and received funding from High Blood Pressure Research Council of Australia. YKa is a DBT/Wellcome Trust India Alliance Fellow in Public Health. YJK is supported by the Office of Research and Innovation at Xiamen University Malaysia. BL acknowledges funding from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. WDL is supported in part by U10NS086484 NINDS. SLo is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (nutriCARD, grant agreement number 01EA1411A). RML is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia Senior Research Fellowship. AMa and the Imperial College London are grateful for support from the NW London NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care. JJM is supported by the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship), and the John Cade Fellowship (APP1056929) from NHMRC. TMei acknowledges additional institutional support from the Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health (nutriCARD), Jena-Halle-Leipzig. IMV is supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigacion (Panama). MOO is supported by SIREN U54 U54HG007479 and SIBS Genomics R01NS107900 grants. AMS was supported by a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. MMSM acknowledges the support from the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Republic of Serbia (contract no 175087). AShe is supported by Health Data Research UK. MBS' work on traumatic brain injury is supported by grants NIH U01 NS086090 (PI G Manley) from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and DoD W81XWH-14-2-0176 (PI G Manley) from the United States Department of Defense. RTS is supported in part by grant number PROMETEOII/2015/021 from Generalitat Valenciana and the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIIIFEDER. AGT was supported by a Fellowship from the NHMRC (Australia; 1042600. KBT acknowledges funding supports from the Maurice Wilkins Centre for Biodiscovery, Cancer Society of New Zealand, Health Research Council, Gut Cancer Foundation, and the University of Auckland. CY acknowledges support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 81773552) and the Chinese NSFC International Cooperation and Exchange Program (grant number 71661167007). ; "Peer Reviewed"

Background: In the context of the investigation of the quark gluon plasma produced in heavy-ion collisions, hadrons containing heavy (charm or beauty) quarks play a special role for the characterization of the hot and dense medium created in the interaction. The measurement of the production of charm and beauty hadrons in proton– proton collisions, besides providing the necessary reference for the studies in heavy-ion reactions, constitutes an important test of perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD) calculations. Heavy-flavor production in proton–nucleus collisions is sensitive to the various effects related to the presence of nuclei in the colliding system, commonly denoted cold-nuclear-matter effects. Most of these effects are expected to modify open-charm production at low transverse momenta (pT) and, so far, no measurement of D-meson production down to zero transverse momentum was available at mid-rapidity at the energies attained at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Purpose: The measurements of the production cross sections of promptly produced charmed mesons in p-Pb collisions at the LHC down to pT = 0 and the comparison to the results from pp interactions are aimed at the assessment of cold-nuclear-matter effects on open-charm production, which is crucial for the interpretation of the results from Pb-Pb collisions. Methods: The prompt charmed mesons D0, D+, D∗+, and Ds+ were measured at mid-rapidity in p-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair √sNN = 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC.D mesons were reconstructed from their decays D0 → K−π+, D+ → K−π+π+, D∗+ → D0π+, Ds+ → φπ+ → K−K+π+, and their charge conjugates, using an analysis method based on the selection of decay topologies displaced from the interaction vertex. In addition, the prompt D0 production cross section was measured in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV and p-Pb collisions at √sNN = 5.02 TeV down to pT = 0 using an analysis technique that is based on the estimation and subtraction of the combinatorial background, without reconstruction of the D0 decay vertex. Results: The production cross section in pp collisions is described within uncertainties by different implementations of pQCD calculations down to pT = 0. This allowed also a determination of the total cc ̄ production cross section in pp collisions, which is more precise than previous ALICE measurements because it is not affected by uncertainties owing to the extrapolation to pT = 0. The nuclear modification factor RpPb(pT), defined as the ratio of the pT-differential D meson cross section in p-Pb collisions and that in pp collisions scaled by the mass number of the Pb nucleus, was calculated for the four D-meson species and found to be compatible with unity within uncertainties. The results are compared to theoretical calculations that include cold-nuclear-matter effects and to transport model calculations incorporating the interactions of charm quarks with an expanding deconfined medium. Conclusions: These measurements add experimental evidence that the modification of the D-meson transverse momentum distributions observed in Pb–Pb collisions with respect to pp interactions is due to strong final-state effects induced by the interactions of the charm quarks with the hot and dense partonic medium created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions. The current precision of the measurement does not allow us to draw conclusions on the role of the different cold-nuclear-matter effects and on the possible presence of additional hot-medium effects in p-Pb collisions. However, the analysis technique without decay-vertex reconstruction, applied on future larger data samples, should provide access to the physics-rich range down to pT = 0 ; State Committee of Science, World Federation of Scientists (WFS), and Swiss Fonds Kidagan, Armenia;ConselhoNacionaldeDesenvolvimentoCient ́ıfico e Tecnolo ́gico (CNPq), Financiadora de Estudos e Proje- tos (FINEP), Fundac ̧a ̃o de Amparo a` Pesquisa do Estado de Sa ̃o Paulo (FAPESP), Brazil; Ministry of Science & Technology of China (MSTC), National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and Ministry of Education of China (MOEC); Ministry of Science, Education and Sports of Croatia and Unity through Knowledge Fund, Croatia; Ministry of Education and Youth of the Czech Republic; Danish Natural Science Research Council, the Carlsberg Foundation and the Danish National Research Foundation; The European Research Council under the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme; Helsinki Institute of Physics and the Academy of Finland; French CNRS-IN2P3, the "Re ́gion Pays de Loire," "Re ́gion Alsace," "Re ́gion Auvergne," and CEA, France; German Bundesministerium fu ̈r Bildung, Wissenschaft, Forschung und Technologie (BMBF) and the Helmholtz Association; General Secretariat for Research and Technology, Ministry of Development, Greece; National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH), Hun- gary; Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, India; Department of Atomic Energy and De- partment of Science and Technology of the Government of India; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) and Centro Fermi-Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche "Enrico Fermi," Italy; Japan Society for the Promotion of Sci- ence (JSPS) KAKENHI and MEXT, Japan; National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF); Consejo Nacional de Cienca y Tecnologia (CONACYT), Direccio ́n General de Asuntos del Personal Acade ́mico (DGAPA), Me ́xico; Ame ́rique Latine Formation acade ́mique-European Commission (ALFA-EC) and the EPLANET Program (European Particle Physics Latin American Network); Stichting voor Fundamenteel Onderzoek der Materie (FOM) and the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (NWO), Netherlands; Research Council of Norway (NFR); Pontificia Universidad Cato ́lica d e l P e r u ́ ; N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e C e n t r e , P o l a n d ; M i n i s t r y o f National Education/Institute for Atomic Physics and National Council of Scientific Research in Higher Education (CNCSI- UEFISCDI), Romania; Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna, Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of Russian Federation, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federal Agency of Atomic Energy, Russian Federal Agency for Science and Innovations and The Russian Foundation for Basic Research; Ministry of Education of Slovakia; Department of Science and Technology, South Africa; Centro de In- vestigaciones Energe ́ticas, Medioambientales y Tecnolo ́gicas (CIEMAT), E-Infrastructure shared between Europe and Latin America (EELA), Ministerio de Econom ́ıa y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain, Xunta de Galicia (Conseller ́ıa de Ed- ucacio ́ n), Centro de Aplicaciones Tecnolo ́ gicas y Desarrollo Nuclear (CEADEN), Cubaenerg ́ıa, Cuba, and IAEA (Interna- tional Atomic Energy Agency); Swedish Research Council (VR) and Knut & Alice Wallenberg Foundation (KAW); National Science and Technology Development Agency (NS- DTA), Suranaree University of Technology (SUT), and Office of the Higher Education Commission under NRU project of Thailand; Ukraine Ministry of Education and Science; United Kingdom Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC); The United States Department of Energy, the United States National Science Foundation, the State of Texas, and the State of Ohio.

The purpose of this dissertation is to assess the impact of patent rights regulation in universities in Sweden and Germany. Two empirical studies were conducted in order to answer the research question What are the incentive effects of patent rights regimes in the university?. A qualitative study based on interviews with representatives from the public support infrastructure in both countries assessed the role of technology transfer offices and other intermediaries in both countries. The process of patenting and commercial exploitation in Sweden and Germany was presented in stylised models. A quantitative study based on a survey of researchers in Sweden and Germany was carried out in order to find out the factors that impact on the decision to apply for patents. The quantitative results together with the qualitative findings from the interview study allow us to draw a number of conclusions. First of all, the incentive effects of patent rights regimes in universities in Sweden and Germany are rather small. Despite two diametrically opposed patent rights regimes – Sweden with researcher-ownership and Germany with universityownership – the results indicate that patenting is rather unaffected by it. Researchers in both countries are similarly patent-active. Thus, the patent rights regime has only limited explanatory power. Other factors seem to have a stronger impact on the incentives to patent. The infrastructure for patenting and commercialisation has an important role. Researchers that received support were more inclined to get their results patented and the results from the interview study indicate that it is mainly a well-working infrastructure that increases incentives to patent and not the patent rights regime alone. When it comes to the public infrastructure for patenting and commercial exploitation, the role of technology transfer offices etc. and the type of support is different in both countries. Swedish public infrastructure provides primarily support with regard to patenting and financial support aiming at the establishment and development of spin-offs. German public infrastructure focuses primarily on patenting and licensing. The patent rights regime has limited power to explain patenting. Structural factors of research organisations and personal characteristics of the researcher are more important. Structural factors such as research orientation (applied vs. basic) can explain patenting behaviour. Researchers that have previous experience with patenting show a greater propensity to patent. The survey results about hindrances to patenting have shown that a lot of researchers did not apply because they lacked knowledge, regarded the patenting process to be too time-consuming or too costly. This illustrates the importance of experience and infrastructure. Since the university wants the researcher to accomplish all three missions (research, teaching and transfer), it has to induce the researchers to do so. Nevertheless, the analysis of the reward system has shown that this is rarely the case. The empirical results in Sweden and Germany show that salary either directly or indirectly is determined by publications and the extent to which researchers acquire external funding. In addition to career concerns and salary, researchers have the possibility to earn a bonus. This bonus is related to the third mission (knowledge transfer) of universities and can take different forms. It can include honoraria for books or lectures, income from consulting assignments, or income from patents. It is therefore important to acknowledge that there is a broad range of means to transfer knowledge and technology. Consulting seems particularly important. The bonus associated with consulting seems to be less risky than the potential bonus of patenting. The maximum bonus with regard to patents is determined by the patent rights regime. In Sweden, the university teachers can receive the entire bonus, whereas this share is limited to 30% in Germany. The chances that a bonus materialises are uncertain. The basic role of technology transfer offices and other actors that support patenting and commercialisation is to reduce the risks associated with patenting. If the risks can be reduced the chances that a bonus will materialise are larger, which increases the incentives of researchers to exert effort with regard to patenting. ; Syftet med avhandlingen är att analysera inflytandet av patenträttsregleringen i universitet i Sverige och Tyskland. Två empiriska studier har genomförts för att få ett svar på forskningsfrågan Vad är incitamentseffekterna av patenträttsregimer i universiteten?. En kvalitativ studie baserad på intervjuer med representanter för den offentliga infrastrukturen i båda länder analyserade tekniköverföringsaktörernas roll. Processen för patentering och kommersialisering i Sverige och Tyskland har illustrerats i grafiska modeller. En kvantitativ studie baserad på en enkätundersökning av forskare i båda länder har genomförts för att veta mer om de faktorer som påverkar beslutet att söka patent. De kvantitativa resultaten tillsammans med de kvalitativa resultaten från intervjustudien gör det möjligt att dra slutsatser. Först och främst så är incitamentseffekterna av patenträttsregimer i universiteten ganska små. Trots två motsatta patenträttsregimer – i Sverige äger forskaren forskningsresultaten ("Lärarundantaget") i Tyskland universiteten – visar resultaten att patentering inte berörs av detta. Forskarna i båda länderna är lika patent aktiva. Patenträttsregimer har därför begränsad förklaringskraft. Andra faktorer har starkare påverkan på incitament att söka patent. Infrastrukturen för patentering och kommersialisering spelar en viktig roll. Forskare som fått stöd visade en större sannolikhet att söka patent och resultaten från intervjustudien visar att det är främst en väl fungerande infrastruktur som ökar incitament att söka patent och inte bara patenträttsregimen. Den offentliga infrastrukturen i båda länder har lika roller. Den svenska offentliga infrastrukturen stödjer patentering och nystartandet av företag genom finansiellt stöd. Den tyska offentliga infrastrukturen stödjer framförallt patentering och licensiering. Patenträttsregimer har begränsat förklaringskraft. Strukturella faktorer, såsom forskningsorientering (tillämpad vs. grundforskning) kan delvis förklara patentbenägenheten. Forskare som har erfarenhet av patentsystemet har större patentbenägenhet. Enkätresultaten om hinder att patentera har visat att många forskare avstår att söka patent på grund av begränsad kunskap eller på grund av tidsbrist. Detta illustrerar hur viktig erfarenhet och infrastruktur är. Universitet som vill att forskare ska fullfölja alla tre uppgifter (forskning, undervisning och kunskapsöverföring) borde uppmuntra forskarna att satsa på alla tre uppgifter. Ändå har analysen av belöningssystemen visat att så är sällan fallet. De empiriska resultaten i Sverige och Tyskland visar att lönen är direkt eller indirekt beroende av publikationer och i vilken mån forskarna lyckas att attrahera externa medel. Utöver karriären och lönen har forskarna möjlighet att tjäna en bonus. Bonusen är relaterad till tredje uppgiften (kunskapsöverföring) och kan ta olika former. Det kan inkludera arvode för böcker eller föreläsningar, inkomster från konsultverksamhet eller inkomster från patent. Därför är det viktigt att erkänna att det finns olika kanaler för kunskaps- och tekniköverföring. Konsultverksamhet har visat sig särskild viktigt eftersom bonusen i relation till konsultverksamhet är mindre riskabelt än bonusen relaterad till patent. Maximala bonus i relation till patent påverkas av patenträttsregimen. I Sverige kan forskaren få alla intäkter från ett patent. I Tyskland är andelen begränsat till 30 procent av alla bruttoinkomster från patentet. Chansen att en bonus kommer till stånd är osäkert. Tekniköverföringsorganisationer kan reducera riskerna som är relaterad till patent och kommersiell exploatering. Om riskerna kan reduceras och om chanserna att en bonus erhålls ökar, ökar incitamenten för forskarna att anstränga sig att patentera.

Presentation of the study. Analysed issues. Relevance of the topic. The Legal regulation of gambling differs across Europe and the world. Some jurisdictions have liberal gambling regulation where operators are free to engage in the betting and gaming business, other jurisdictions enjoy a gambling monopoly. Those countries which have state gambling monopolies participate in gambling through state-owned enterprises or through private concession-based operators. The Scandinavian countries also have long standing gambling monopolies and all gambling revenues are returned back into society to finance state budgets or public projects. Having followed the consequent Nordic tradition during the interwar period, after the restoration of independence Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (with certain exceptions) chose a completely different gaming regulatory approach. These jurisdictions chose a fairly liberal and also unique gambling regulation. The Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian gambling regulators acknowledge that these countries can not be classified within any gambling legal regulatory system. Certain conceptual problems that are endemic in gaming legal regulation in Lithuania and Baltics were observed by the author while working as a legal practitioner. Since then, through becoming more and more involved in gambling legal regulation and through the observation of foreign law, the author began to think about what might constitute ideal gambling regulation guidelines, and began encouraging the students of Mykolas Romeris University to carry out investigations into ideal gambling legal regulation in their Master theses. In this way, the problem of the selection of the gambling regulatory regime most advantageous to the public came to be crystallised, later forming the axis of this thesis. Is there an ideal legal regulation for gambling at all and what form should this legal regulation take? These reasons led to a comparative legal study – in which the gambling regulatory features in Scandinavia and the Baltic states were compared. As the Scandinavian and Baltic states represent two major approaches to the regulation of the gaming market – a market monopoly (in Scandinavia) and a liberal, competition-based regulation (in Baltic states), the separate issue under investigation were the pros and cons of each of these regulatory approaches. It has to be noted that a gambling monopoly is not just a legal concept enabling the exclusive entity to organize and provide gambling services. The monopoly is also a socio-economic category, whose consequences to the market and the public can be measured. For this reason, the analysis in the thesis touched not only on the legal but also the socio-economic peculiarities of gambling regulation. State and society benefits were also under evaluation, as legally they have to offset an indisputably negative attribute of gambling – it's addictiveness. Thus, this dissertation assesses whether there is a legal basis to assert that the monopoly, based on Nordic gambling regulation traditions, is more proactive (or defective) than the free market based gambling regulations followed in the Baltic States, in terms of the legal, social and economic aspects of these two alternative gaming market regulation methods. The relevance of the study, in particular, is founded on the existing conceptual problems faced by the current Lithuanian legal regulation regarding games of chance. During the nine years of its gambling regulation practice, the Republic of Lithuania has been unable to develop an effective gambling regulatory model that could effectively combine public (society's and state's) and private (gambling operators') interests. The current situation is evidence of the fact that public interest in the gaming sector is not legally covered and protected. The current legislation neither foresees public protection against the harmful effects of gambling, nor regulates public self protection. There are no legal measures of protection in Lithuania that would allow for personal self exclusion from casinos and other gambling venues. The public interest of the government is not protected from the economic point of view. Gambling tax collection and distribution in Lithuania is not effective. Data from 2008 showed that Lithuania had the lowest aggregate gambling tax collection in the region. In contrast, the study showed that the gambling turnover in Lithuania was the largest among the Baltic countries. This shows that the gambling business does not face any real restrictions with regards to its operations. Lithuania lacks legal mechanisms to either regulate the working hours of gaming establishments, or their places of establishment. The dissertation tackles this problem by offering a concrete option - the establishment of a state gambling and lottery monopoly. Monopolistic state participation in the gambling business (the Scandinavian model) guarantees not only the state revenue collected in the form of taxes, it also makes it possible to claim for full gambling generated income (profit). The raising of state revenue is of perpetual relevance to every jurisdiction, especially in the presence of a global financial crisis. The financial difficulties currently met by the Baltic States add additional relevance to this dissertation. The relevance of the thesis is not only contingent on the solution offered to conceptual problems in the field of gambling and the increasing of public revenue. The thesis also evaluates the legitimacy of the monopoly. If sovereign jurisdictions are free to choose a gambling regulatory method, legal problems have occasion to arise when the particular method chosen does not correspond with international legal obligations. For example, article 43 of the Treaty on European Community regulates the freedom of establishment within the EC. Article 49 prohibits restrictions on the provision of services to another Member state of the Community. The infringement of the aforementioned articles is often addressed to states in which legal regulation of gambling is based on a state monopoly. The dissertation provides response to the question of whether gambling monopolies are legal. Due to the international nature of the topic of the dissertation, it is relevant not only in Lithuania, but also Latvia, Estonia and those other Scandinavian countries which are currently concerned with the dilemma of maintaining a monopoly or opening it. The last, but most important, elements which determine the permanent topicality of this paper are the legal aspects of gambling addiction prevention that are researched in the dissertation. In all Baltic States, the prevention of gambling addiction is not given adequate legal consideration. Scandinavian countries apply a number of different gambling addiction prevention measures. Public safety and public order are universal legal values towards which special attention must be paid during the process of forming gaming legal regulation. The paper reveals what legal stand is occupied by the Baltic States in comparison to those Scandinavian countries with monopoly based gambling regulation. The paper reveals how the legal basis of all three Baltic jurisdictions can be improved in the context of gambling addiction prevention. In this respect, the paper is also relevant. The objective and tasks of the study The dissertation is comprised of a comparative legal study, whose purpose is to compare monopolistic legal regulation and the liberal legal regulation of gambling in a specific context - Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, Finnish, as well as Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian jurisdictions. This specific context – the Scandinavian and Baltic countries, has been chosen due to the fact that Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia share a similar history, geopolitical situation, legal system and legal regulation of gambling, even if they are not identical. Latvia and Estonia have monopolized their lottery market, but the rest of the gaming market is liberal. The Scandinavian countries, which are all representatives of state owned gambling monopoly countries, have been chosen as they are close Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian neighbours, whilst their social protection system and social policy are perhaps the best in Europe. These are social welfare countries whose social welfare indices, according to the classification of the Nobel Prize winning economist Amarta Sen, are among the highest in the world. Therefore, the aim of the study was to reveal the effectiveness and appropriateness of gambling legal regulation in Lithuania and other Baltic states, by first comparing these countries to each other and then to Scandinavian countries which are famous for their social well-being. In order to meet the study objective the following tasks have been set: 1. To disclose the concept, nature, evolution and characteristics of the legal regulation of gambling. To disclose social costs management in the Nordic and Baltic countries. 2. To compare gaming regulatory features, including the practice of gaming regulatory institutions, liability against infringement of gambling legal regulation and gambling taxation in Nordic and Baltic countries. 3. To compare gaming safety measures applied in Nordic and Baltic countries The novelty of the study. The scientific value of the dissertation. This is the very first legal dissertation in Lithuania on gambling. The countries under investigation (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia) are also lacking any single comparative legal study on gaming regulatory issues. This is the first scientific work to analyze the pro et contra of market competition and monopoly-based gambling regulation. Only one study, which was performed by the Comparative Law Institute of Lausanne (Switzerland) under assignment of the European Commission: \"Study of Gambling Services in the Internal Market of the European Union. Final report.\" can be held as inter-related to the cur

Presentation of the study. Analysed issues. Relevance of the topic. The Legal regulation of gambling differs across Europe and the world. Some jurisdictions have liberal gambling regulation where operators are free to engage in the betting and gaming business, other jurisdictions enjoy a gambling monopoly. Those countries which have state gambling monopolies participate in gambling through state-owned enterprises or through private concession-based operators. The Scandinavian countries also have long standing gambling monopolies and all gambling revenues are returned back into society to finance state budgets or public projects. Having followed the consequent Nordic tradition during the interwar period, after the restoration of independence Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (with certain exceptions) chose a completely different gaming regulatory approach. These jurisdictions chose a fairly liberal and also unique gambling regulation. The Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian gambling regulators acknowledge that these countries can not be classified within any gambling legal regulatory system. Certain conceptual problems that are endemic in gaming legal regulation in Lithuania and Baltics were observed by the author while working as a legal practitioner. Since then, through becoming more and more involved in gambling legal regulation and through the observation of foreign law, the author began to think about what might constitute ideal gambling regulation guidelines, and began encouraging the students of Mykolas Romeris University to carry out investigations into ideal gambling legal regulation in their Master theses. In this way, the problem of the selection of the gambling regulatory regime most advantageous to the public came to be crystallised, later forming the axis of this thesis. Is there an ideal legal regulation for gambling at all and what form should this legal regulation take? These reasons led to a comparative legal study – in which the gambling regulatory features in Scandinavia and the Baltic states were compared. As the Scandinavian and Baltic states represent two major approaches to the regulation of the gaming market – a market monopoly (in Scandinavia) and a liberal, competition-based regulation (in Baltic states), the separate issue under investigation were the pros and cons of each of these regulatory approaches. It has to be noted that a gambling monopoly is not just a legal concept enabling the exclusive entity to organize and provide gambling services. The monopoly is also a socio-economic category, whose consequences to the market and the public can be measured. For this reason, the analysis in the thesis touched not only on the legal but also the socio-economic peculiarities of gambling regulation. State and society benefits were also under evaluation, as legally they have to offset an indisputably negative attribute of gambling – it's addictiveness. Thus, this dissertation assesses whether there is a legal basis to assert that the monopoly, based on Nordic gambling regulation traditions, is more proactive (or defective) than the free market based gambling regulations followed in the Baltic States, in terms of the legal, social and economic aspects of these two alternative gaming market regulation methods. The relevance of the study, in particular, is founded on the existing conceptual problems faced by the current Lithuanian legal regulation regarding games of chance. During the nine years of its gambling regulation practice, the Republic of Lithuania has been unable to develop an effective gambling regulatory model that could effectively combine public (society's and state's) and private (gambling operators') interests. The current situation is evidence of the fact that public interest in the gaming sector is not legally covered and protected. The current legislation neither foresees public protection against the harmful effects of gambling, nor regulates public self protection. There are no legal measures of protection in Lithuania that would allow for personal self exclusion from casinos and other gambling venues. The public interest of the government is not protected from the economic point of view. Gambling tax collection and distribution in Lithuania is not effective. Data from 2008 showed that Lithuania had the lowest aggregate gambling tax collection in the region. In contrast, the study showed that the gambling turnover in Lithuania was the largest among the Baltic countries. This shows that the gambling business does not face any real restrictions with regards to its operations. Lithuania lacks legal mechanisms to either regulate the working hours of gaming establishments, or their places of establishment. The dissertation tackles this problem by offering a concrete option - the establishment of a state gambling and lottery monopoly. Monopolistic state participation in the gambling business (the Scandinavian model) guarantees not only the state revenue collected in the form of taxes, it also makes it possible to claim for full gambling generated income (profit). The raising of state revenue is of perpetual relevance to every jurisdiction, especially in the presence of a global financial crisis. The financial difficulties currently met by the Baltic States add additional relevance to this dissertation. The relevance of the thesis is not only contingent on the solution offered to conceptual problems in the field of gambling and the increasing of public revenue. The thesis also evaluates the legitimacy of the monopoly. If sovereign jurisdictions are free to choose a gambling regulatory method, legal problems have occasion to arise when the particular method chosen does not correspond with international legal obligations. For example, article 43 of the Treaty on European Community regulates the freedom of establishment within the EC. Article 49 prohibits restrictions on the provision of services to another Member state of the Community. The infringement of the aforementioned articles is often addressed to states in which legal regulation of gambling is based on a state monopoly. The dissertation provides response to the question of whether gambling monopolies are legal. Due to the international nature of the topic of the dissertation, it is relevant not only in Lithuania, but also Latvia, Estonia and those other Scandinavian countries which are currently concerned with the dilemma of maintaining a monopoly or opening it. The last, but most important, elements which determine the permanent topicality of this paper are the legal aspects of gambling addiction prevention that are researched in the dissertation. In all Baltic States, the prevention of gambling addiction is not given adequate legal consideration. Scandinavian countries apply a number of different gambling addiction prevention measures. Public safety and public order are universal legal values towards which special attention must be paid during the process of forming gaming legal regulation. The paper reveals what legal stand is occupied by the Baltic States in comparison to those Scandinavian countries with monopoly based gambling regulation. The paper reveals how the legal basis of all three Baltic jurisdictions can be improved in the context of gambling addiction prevention. In this respect, the paper is also relevant. The objective and tasks of the study The dissertation is comprised of a comparative legal study, whose purpose is to compare monopolistic legal regulation and the liberal legal regulation of gambling in a specific context - Danish, Swedish, Norwegian, Finnish, as well as Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian jurisdictions. This specific context – the Scandinavian and Baltic countries, has been chosen due to the fact that Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia share a similar history, geopolitical situation, legal system and legal regulation of gambling, even if they are not identical. Latvia and Estonia have monopolized their lottery market, but the rest of the gaming market is liberal. The Scandinavian countries, which are all representatives of state owned gambling monopoly countries, have been chosen as they are close Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian neighbours, whilst their social protection system and social policy are perhaps the best in Europe. These are social welfare countries whose social welfare indices, according to the classification of the Nobel Prize winning economist Amarta Sen, are among the highest in the world. Therefore, the aim of the study was to reveal the effectiveness and appropriateness of gambling legal regulation in Lithuania and other Baltic states, by first comparing these countries to each other and then to Scandinavian countries which are famous for their social well-being. In order to meet the study objective the following tasks have been set: 1. To disclose the concept, nature, evolution and characteristics of the legal regulation of gambling. To disclose social costs management in the Nordic and Baltic countries. 2. To compare gaming regulatory features, including the practice of gaming regulatory institutions, liability against infringement of gambling legal regulation and gambling taxation in Nordic and Baltic countries. 3. To compare gaming safety measures applied in Nordic and Baltic countries The novelty of the study. The scientific value of the dissertation. This is the very first legal dissertation in Lithuania on gambling. The countries under investigation (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia) are also lacking any single comparative legal study on gaming regulatory issues. This is the first scientific work to analyze the pro et contra of market competition and monopoly-based gambling regulation. Only one study, which was performed by the Comparative Law Institute of Lausanne (Switzerland) under assignment of the European Commission: \"Study of Gambling Services in the Internal Market of the European Union. Final report.\" can be held as inter-related to the cur

Full list of authors: Narayan, Ramesh; Palumbo, Daniel C. M.; Johnson, Michael D.; Gelles, Zachary; Himwich, Elizabeth; Chang, Dominic O.; Ricarte, Angelo; Dexter, Jason; Gammie, Charles F.; Chael, Andrew A.; Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration; Akiyama, Kazunori; Alberdi, Antxon; Alef, Walter; Algaba, Juan Carlos; Anantua, Richard; Asada, Keiichi; Azulay, Rebecca; Baczko, Anne-Kathrin; Ball, David Baloković, Mislav; Barrett, John; Benson, Bradford A.; Bintley, Dan; Blackburn, Lindy; Blundell, Raymond; Boland, Wilfred; Bouman, Katherine L.; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Boyce, Hope; Bremer, Michael; Brinkerink, Christiaan D.; Brissenden, Roger; Britzen, Silke; Broderick, Avery E.; Broguiere, Dominique; Bronzwaer, Thomas; Byun, Do-Young; Carlstrom, John E.; Chan, Chi-kwan; Chatterjee, Shami; Chatterjee, Koushik; Chen, Ming-Tang; Chen, Yongjun; Chesler, Paul M.; Cho, Ilje; Christian, Pierre; Conway, John E.; Cordes, James M.; Crawford, Thomas M.; Crew, Geoffrey B.; Cruz-Osorio, Alejandro; Cui, Yuzhu; Davelaar, Jordy; De Laurentis, Mariafelicia; Deane, Roger; Dempsey, Jessica; Desvignes, Gregory; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Eatough, Ralph P.; Falcke, Heino; Farah, Joseph; Fish, Vincent L.; Fomalont, Ed; Ford, H. Alyson; Fraga-Encinas, Raquel; Friberg, Per; Fromm, Christian M.; Fuentes, Antonio; Galison, Peter; García, Roberto; Gentaz, Olivier; Georgiev, Boris; Goddi, Ciriaco; Gold, Roman; Gómez, José L.; Gómez-Ruiz, Arturo I.; Gu, Minfeng; Gurwell, Mark; Hada, Kazuhiro; Haggard, Daryl; Hecht, Michael H.; Hesper, Ronald; Ho, Luis C.; Ho, Paul; Honma, Mareki; Huang, Chih-Wei L.; Huang, Lei; Hughes, David H.; Ikeda, Shiro; Inoue, Makoto; Issaoun, Sara; James, David J.; Jannuzi, Buell T.; Janssen, Michael; Jeter, Britton; Jiang, Wu; Jimenez-Rosales, Alejandra; Jorstad, Svetlana; Jung, Taehyun; Karami, Mansour; Karuppusamy, Ramesh; Kawashima, Tomohisa; Keating, Garrett K.; Kettenis, Mark; Kim, Dong-Jin; Kim, Jae-Young; Kim, Jongsoo; Kim, Junhan; Kino, Motoki; Koay, Jun Yi; Kofuji, Yutaro; Koch, Patrick M.; Koyama, Shoko; Kramer, Michael; Kramer, Carsten; Krichbaum, Thomas P.; Kuo, Cheng-Yu; Lauer, Tod R.; Lee, Sang-Sung; Levis, Aviad; Li, Yan-Rong; Li, Zhiyuan; Lindqvist, Michael; Lico, Rocco; Lindahl, Greg; Liu, Jun; Liu, Kuo; Liuzzo, Elisabetta; Lo, Wen-Ping; Lobanov, Andrei P.; Loinard, Laurent; Lonsdale, Colin; Lu, Ru-Sen; MacDonald, Nicholas R.; Mao, Jirong; Marchili, Nicola; Markoff, Sera; Marrone, Daniel P.; Marscher, Alan P.; Martí-Vidal, Iván; Matsushita, Satoki; Matthews, Lynn D.; Medeiros, Lia; Menten, Karl M.; Mizuno, Izumi; Mizuno, Yosuke; Moran, James M.; Moriyama, Kotaro; Moscibrodzka, Monika; Müller, Cornelia; Musoke, Gibwa; Mejías, Alejandro Mus; Nagai, Hiroshi; Nagar, Neil M.; Nakamura, Masanori; Narayanan, Gopal; Natarajan, Iniyan; Nathanail, Antonios; Neilsen, Joey; Neri, Roberto; Ni, Chunchong; Noutsos, Aristeidis; Nowak, Michael A.; Okino, Hiroki; Olivares, Héctor; Ortiz-León, Gisela N.; Oyama, Tomoaki; Özel, Feryal; Park, Jongho; Patel, Nimesh; Pen, Ue-Li; Pesce, Dominic W.; Piétu, Vincent; Plambeck, Richard; PopStefanija, Aleksandar; Porth, Oliver; Pötzl, Felix M.; Prather, Ben; Preciado-López, Jorge A.; Psaltis, Dimitrios; Pu, Hung-Yi; Ramakrishnan, Venkatessh; Rao, Ramprasad; Rawlings, Mark G.; Raymond, Alexander W.; Rezzolla, Luciano; Ripperda, Bart; Roelofs, Freek; Rogers, Alan; Ros, Eduardo; Rose, Mel; Roshanineshat, Arash; Rottmann, Helge; Roy, Alan L.; Ruszczyk, Chet; Rygl, Kazi L. J.; Sánchez, Salvador; Sánchez-Arguelles, David; Sasada, Mahito; Savolainen, Tuomas; Schloerb, F. Peter; Schuster, Karl-Friedrich; Shao, Lijing; Shen, Zhiqiang; Small, Des; Sohn, Bong Won; SooHoo, Jason; Sun, He; Tazaki, Fumie; Tetarenko, Alexandra J.; Tiede, Paul; Tilanus, Remo P. J.; Titus, Michael; Toma, Kenji; Torne, Pablo; Trent, Tyler; Traianou, Efthalia; Trippe, Sascha; van Bemmel, Ilse; van Langevelde, Huib Jan; van Rossum, Daniel R.; Wagner, Jan; Ward-Thompson, Derek; Wardle, John; Weintroub, Jonathan; Wex, Norbert; Wharton, Robert; Wielgus, Maciek; Wong, George N.; Wu, Qingwen; Yoon, Doosoo; Young, André; Young, Ken; Younsi, Ziri; Yuan, Feng; Yuan, Ye-Fei; Zensus, J. Anton; Zhao, Guang-Yao; Zhao, Shan-Shan.--This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. ; Synchrotron radiation from hot gas near a black hole results in a polarized image. The image polarization is determined by effects including the orientation of the magnetic field in the emitting region, relativistic motion of the gas, strong gravitational lensing by the black hole, and parallel transport in the curved spacetime. We explore these effects using a simple model of an axisymmetric, equatorial accretion disk around a Schwarzschild black hole. By using an approximate expression for the null geodesics derived by Beloborodov and conservation of the Walker–Penrose constant, we provide analytic estimates for the image polarization. We test this model using currently favored general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of M87*, using ring parameters given by the simulations. For a subset of these with modest Faraday effects, we show that the ring model broadly reproduces the polarimetric image morphology. Our model also predicts the polarization evolution for compact flaring regions, such as those observed from Sgr A* with GRAVITY. With suitably chosen parameters, our simple model can reproduce the EVPA pattern and relative polarized intensity in Event Horizon Telescope images of M87*. Under the physically motivated assumption that the magnetic field trails the fluid velocity, this comparison is consistent with the clockwise rotation inferred from total intensity images. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society. ; We thank the National Science Foundation (awards OISE1743747, AST-1816420, AST-1716536, AST-1440254, AST1935980) and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF-5278) for financial support of this work. This work was supported in part by the black hole Initiative, which is funded by grants from the John Templeton Foundation and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation to Harvard University. Support for this work was also provided by the NASA Hubble Fellowship grant HST-HF2-51431.001-A awarded by the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., for NASA, under contract NAS5-26555. The Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration thanks the following organizations and programs: the Academy of Finland (projects 274477, 284495, 312496, 315721); the Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo (ANID), Chile via NCN19_058 (TITANs) and Fondecyt 3190878, the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung; an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship; Allegro, the European ALMA Regional Centre node in the Netherlands, the NL astronomy research network NOVA and the astronomy institutes of the University of Amsterdam, Leiden University and Radboud University; the black hole Initiative at Harvard University, through a grant (60477) from the John Templeton Foundation; the China Scholarship Council; Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT, Mexico, projects U0004-246083, U0004-259839, F0003-272050, M0037279006, F0003-281692, 104497, 275201, 263356); the Delaney Family via the Delaney Family John A. Wheeler Chair at Perimeter Institute; Direccion General de Asuntos del Personal Academico-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (DGAPA-UNAM, projects IN112417 and IN112820); the European Research Council Synergy Grant "BlackHoleCam: Imaging the Event Horizon of Black Holes" (grant 610058); the Generalitat Valenciana postdoctoral grant APOSTD/2018/177 and GenT Program (project CIDEGENT/2018/021); MICINN Research Project PID2019-108995GB-C22; the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (grant GBMF-3561; the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) sezione di Napoli, iniziative specifiche TEONGRAV; the International Max Planck Research School for Astronomy and Astrophysics at the Universities of Bonn and Cologne; Joint Princeton/Flatiron and Joint Columbia/Flatiron Postdoctoral Fellowships, research at the Flatiron Institute is supported by the Simons Foundation; the Japanese Government (Monbukagakusho: MEXT) Scholarship; the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellowship (JP17J08829 and JP19H01943); the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS, grants QYZDJ-SSW-SLH057, QYZDJSSW-SYS008, ZDBS-LYSLH011); the Leverhulme Trust Early Career Research Fellowship; the Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG); the Max Planck Partner Group of the MPG and the CAS; the MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI (grants 18KK0090, JP18K13594, JP18K03656, JP18H03721, 18K03709, 18H01245, 25120007); the Malaysian Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS) FRGS/1/2019/STG02/UM/02/6; the MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives (MISTI) Funds; the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of Taiwan (105-2112-M-001-025-MY3, 106-2112-M-001-011, 106-2119-M-001-027, 107-2119-M-001017, 107-2119-M-001-020,107-2119-M-110-005, 108-2112-M001-048, and 109-2124-M-001-005); the National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration (NASA grant NNX17AL82G, Fermi Guest Investigator grant 80NSSC20K1567, NASA Astrophysics Theory Program grant 80NSSC20K0527, NASA NuSTAR award 80NSSC20K0645); the National Institute of Natural Sciences (NINS) of Japan; the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant 2016YFA0400704, 2016YFA0400702); the National Science Foundation (NSF, grants AST-0096454, AST-0352953, AST-0521233, AST-0705062, AST-0905844, AST-0922984, AST-1126433, AST-1140030, DGE-1144085, AST-1207704, AST-1207730, AST-1207752, MRI-1228509, OPP-1248097, AST-1310896, AST-1555365, AST-1615796, AST-1715061, AST-1716327, AST-1903847, AST-2034306); the Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 11573051, 11633006, 11650110427, 10625314, 11721303, 11725312, 11933007, 11991052, 11991053); a fellowship of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2020M671266); the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC, including a Discovery Grant and the NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarships-Doctoral Program); the National Research Foundation of Korea (the Global PhD Fellowship Grant: grants NRF-2015H1A2A1033752, 2015R1D1A1A01056807, the Korea Research Fellowship Program: NRF-2015H1D3A1066561, Basic Research Support Grant 2019R1F1A1059721); the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) VICI award (grant 639.043. 513) and Spinoza Prize SPI 78-409; the New Scientific Frontiers with Precision Radio Interferometry Fellowship awarded by the South African Radio Astronomy Observatory (SARAO), which is a facility of the National Research Foundation (NRF), an agency of the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) of South Africa; the South African Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Innovation and National Research Foundation; the Onsala Space Observatory (OSO) national infrastructure, for the provisioning of its facilities/observational support (OSO receives funding through the Swedish Research Council under grant 201700648) the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics (research at Perimeter Institute is supported by the Government of Canada through the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development and by the Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science); the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (grants PGC2018-098915-B-C21, AYA2016-80889-P, PID2019-108995GB-C21); the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award for the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (SEV-2017-0709); the Toray Science Foundation; the Consejeria de Economia, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad of the Junta de Andalucia (grant P18-FR-1769), the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (grant 2019AEP112); the US Department of Energy (USDOE) through the Los Alamos National Laboratory (operated by Triad National Security, LLC, for the National Nuclear Security Administration of the USDOE (Contract 89233218CNA000001); the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 730562 RadioNet; ALMA North America Development Fund; the Academia Sinica; Chandra DD7-18089X and TM6-17006X; the GenT Program (Generalitat Valenciana) Project CIDEGENT/2018/021. This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), supported by NSF grant ACI-1548562, and CyVerse, supported by NSF grants DBI-0735191, DBI-1265383, and DBI-1743442. XSEDE Stampede2 resource at TACC was allocated through TGAST170024 and TG-AST080026N. XSEDE JetStream resource at PTI and TACC was allocated through AST170028. The simulations were performed in part on the SuperMUC cluster at the LRZ in Garching, on the LOEWE cluster in CSC in Frankfurt, and on the HazelHen cluster at the HLRS in Stuttgart. This research was enabled in part by support provided by Compute Ontario (http://computeontario.ca), Calcul Quebec (http://www.calculquebec.ca) and Compute Canada (http://www.computecanada.ca).We thank the staff at the participating observatories, correlation centers, and institutions for their enthusiastic support. This paper makes use of the following ALMA data: ADS/JAO.ALMA#2016.1.01154.V. ALMA is a partnership of the European Southern Observatory (ESO; Europe, representing its member states), NSF, and National Institutes of Natural Sciences of Japan, together with National Research Council (Canada), Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST; Taiwan), Academia Sinica Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics (ASIAA; Taiwan), and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI; Republic of Korea), in cooperation with the Republic of Chile. The Joint ALMA Observatory is operated by ESO, Associated Universities, Inc. (AUI)/NRAO, and the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ). The NRAO is a facility of the NSF operated under cooperative agreement by AUI. APEX is a collaboration between the Max-Planck-Institut fur Radioastronomie (Germany), ESO, and the Onsala Space Observatory (Sweden). The SMA is a joint project between the SAO and ASIAA and is funded by the Smithsonian Institution and the Academia Sinica. The JCMT is operated by the East Asian Observatory on behalf of the NAOJ, ASIAA, and KASI, as well as the Ministry of Finance of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the National Key R&D Program (No. 2017YFA0402700) of China. Additional funding support for the JCMT is provided by the Science and Technologies Facility Council (UK) and participating universities in the UK and Canada. The LMT is a project operated by the Instituto Nacional de Astrofisica, Optica, y Electronica (Mexico) and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst (USA), with financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia and the National Science Foundation. The IRAM 30m telescope on Pico Veleta, Spain is operated by IRAM and supported by CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France), MPG (MaxPlanck-Gesellschaft, Germany) and IGN (Instituto Geografico Nacional, Spain). The SMT is operated by the Arizona Radio Observatory, a part of the Steward Observatory of the University of Arizona, with financial support of operations from the State of Arizona and financial support for instrumentation development from the NSF. The SPT is supported by the National Science Foundation through grant PLR-1248097. Partial support is also provided by the NSF Physics Frontier Center grant PHY-1125897 to the Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago, the Kavli Foundation and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation grant GBMF 947. The SPT hydrogen maser was provided on loan from the GLT, courtesy of ASIAA. The EHTC has received generous donations of FPGA chips from Xilinx Inc., under the Xilinx University Program. The EHTC has benefited from technology shared under open-source license by the Collaboration for Astronomy Signal Processing and Electronics Research (CASPER). The EHT project is grateful to T4Science and Microsemi for their assistance with Hydrogen Masers. This research has made use of NASA's Astrophysics Data System. We gratefully acknowledge the support provided by the extended staff of the ALMA, both from the inception of the ALMA Phasing Project through the observational campaigns of 2017 and 2018. We would like to thank A. Deller and W. Brisken for EHTspecific support with the use of DiFX. We acknowledge the significance that Maunakea, where the SMA and JCMT EHT stations are located, has for the indigenous Hawaiian people. ; Peer reviewed

Full list of authors: Akiyama, Kazunori; Algaba, Juan Carlos; Alberdi, Antxon; Alef, Walter; Anantua, Richard; Asada, Keiichi; Azulay, Rebecca; Baczko, Anne-Kathrin; Ball, David; Baloković, Mislav; Barrett, John; Benson, Bradford A.; Bintley, Dan; Blackburn, Lindy; Blundell, Raymond; Boland, Wilfred; Bouman, Katherine L.; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Boyce, Hope Bremer, Michael; Brinkerink, Christiaan D.; Brissenden, Roger; Britzen, Silke; Broderick, Avery E.; Broguiere, Dominique; Bronzwaer, Thomas; Byun, Do-Young; Carlstrom, John E.; Chael, Andrew; Chan, Chi-kwan; Chatterjee, Shami; Chatterjee, Koushik; Chen, Ming-Tang; Chen, Yongjun; Chesler, Paul M.; Cho, Ilje; Christian, Pierre; Conway, John E.; Cordes, James M.; Crawford, Thomas M.; Crew, Geoffrey B.; Cruz-Osorio, Alejandro; Cui, Yuzhu; Davelaar, Jordy; De Laurentis, Mariafelicia; Deane, Roger; Dempsey, Jessica; Desvignes, Gregory; Dexter, Jason; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Eatough, Ralph P.; Falcke, Heino; Farah, Joseph; Fish, Vincent L.; Fomalont, Ed; Ford, H. Alyson; Fraga-Encinas, Raquel; Friberg, Per; Fromm, Christian M.; Fuentes, Antonio; Galison, Peter; Gammie, Charles F.; García, Roberto; Gelles, Zachary; Gentaz, Olivier; Georgiev, Boris; Goddi, Ciriaco; Gold, Roman; Gómez, José L.; Gómez-Ruiz, Arturo I.; Gu, Minfeng; Gurwell, Mark; Hada, Kazuhiro; Haggard, Daryl; Hecht, Michael H.; Hesper, Ronald; Himwich, Elizabeth; Ho, Luis C.; Ho, Paul; Honma, Mareki; Huang, Chih-Wei L.; Huang, Lei; Hughes, David H.; Ikeda, Shiro; Inoue, Makoto; Issaoun, Sara; James, David J.; Jannuzi, Buell T.; Janssen, Michael; Jeter, Britton; Jiang, Wu; Jimenez-Rosales, Alejandra; Johnson, Michael D.; Jorstad, Svetlana; Jung, Taehyun; Karami, Mansour; Karuppusamy, Ramesh; Kawashima, Tomohisa; Keating, Garrett K.; Kettenis, Mark; Kim, Dong-Jin; Kim, Jae-Young; Kim, Jongsoo; Kim, Junhan; Kino, Motoki; Koay, Jun Yi; Kofuji, Yutaro; Koch, Patrick M.; Koyama, Shoko; Kramer, Michael; Kramer, Carsten; Krichbaum, Thomas P.; Kuo, Cheng-Yu; Lauer, Tod R.; Lee, Sang-Sung; Levis, Aviad; Li, Yan-Rong; Li, Zhiyuan; Lindqvist, Michael; Lico, Rocco; Lindahl, Greg; Liu, Jun; Liu, Kuo; Liuzzo, Elisabetta; Lo, Wen-Ping; Lobanov, Andrei P.; Loinard, Laurent; Lonsdale, Colin; Lu, Ru-Sen; MacDonald, Nicholas R.; Mao, Jirong; Marchili, Nicola; Markoff, Sera; Marrone, Daniel P.; Marscher, Alan P.; Martí-Vidal, Iván; Matsushita, Satoki; Matthews, Lynn D.; Medeiros, Lia; Menten, Karl M.; Mizuno, Izumi; Mizuno, Yosuke; Moran, James M.; Moriyama, Kotaro; Moscibrodzka, Monika; Müller, Cornelia; Musoke, Gibwa; Mus Mejías, Alejandro; Michalik, Daniel; Nadolski, Andrew; Nagai, Hiroshi; Nagar, Neil M.; Nakamura, Masanori; Narayan, Ramesh; Narayanan, Gopal; Natarajan, Iniyan; Nathanail, Antonios; Neilsen, Joey; Neri, Roberto; Ni, Chunchong; Noutsos, Aristeidis; Nowak, Michael A.; Okino, Hiroki; Olivares, Héctor; Ortiz-León, Gisela N.; Oyama, Tomoaki; Özel, Feryal; Palumbo, Daniel C. M.; Park, Jongho; Patel, Nimesh; Pen, Ue-Li; Pesce, Dominic W.; Piétu, Vincent; Plambeck, Richard; PopStefanija, Aleksandar; Porth, Oliver; Pötzl, Felix M.; Prather, Ben; Preciado-López, Jorge A.; Psaltis, Dimitrios; Pu, Hung-Yi; Ramakrishnan, Venkatessh; Rao, Ramprasad; Rawlings, Mark G.; Raymond, Alexander W.; Rezzolla, Luciano; Ricarte, Angelo; Ripperda, Bart; Roelofs, Freek; Rogers, Alan; Ros, Eduardo; Rose, Mel; Roshanineshat, Arash; Rottmann, Helge; Roy, Alan L.; Ruszczyk, Chet; Rygl, Kazi L. J.; Sánchez, Salvador; Sánchez-Arguelles, David; Sasada, Mahito; Savolainen, Tuomas; Schloerb, F. Peter; Schuster, Karl-Friedrich; Shao, Lijing; Shen, Zhiqiang; Small, Des; Sohn, Bong Won; SooHoo, Jason; Sun, He; Tazaki, Fumie; Tetarenko, Alexandra J.; Tiede, Paul; Tilanus, Remo P. J.; Titus, Michael; Toma, Kenji; Torne, Pablo; Trent, Tyler; Traianou, Efthalia; Trippe, Sascha; van Bemmel, Ilse; van Langevelde, Huib Jan; van Rossum, Daniel R.; Wagner, Jan; Ward-Thompson, Derek; Wardle, John; Weintroub, Jonathan; Wex, Norbert; Wharton, Robert; Wielgus, Maciek; Wong, George N.; Wu, Qingwen; Yoon, Doosoo; Young, André; Young, Ken; Younsi, Ziri; Yuan, Feng; Yuan, Ye-Fei; Zensus, J. Anton; Zhao, Guang-Yao; Zhao, Shan-Shan; Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration.--Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. ; Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations at 230 GHz have now imaged polarized emission around the supermassive black hole in M87 on event-horizon scales. This polarized synchrotron radiation probes the structure of magnetic fields and the plasma properties near the black hole. Here we compare the resolved polarization structure observed by the EHT, along with simultaneous unresolved observations with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array, to expectations from theoretical models. The low fractional linear polarization in the resolved image suggests that the polarization is scrambled on scales smaller than the EHT beam, which we attribute to Faraday rotation internal to the emission region. We estimate the average density ne ~ 104–7 cm−3, magnetic field strength B ~ 1–30 G, and electron temperature Te ~ (1–12) × 1010 K of the radiating plasma in a simple one-zone emission model. We show that the net azimuthal linear polarization pattern may result from organized, poloidal magnetic fields in the emission region. In a quantitative comparison with a large library of simulated polarimetric images from general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations, we identify a subset of physical models that can explain critical features of the polarimetric EHT observations while producing a relativistic jet of sufficient power. The consistent GRMHD models are all of magnetically arrested accretion disks, where near-horizon magnetic fields are dynamically important. We use the models to infer a mass accretion rate onto the black hole in M87 of (3–20) × 10−4 M⊙ yr−1. © 2021. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society. ; The authors of the present Letter thank the following organizations and programs: the Academy of Finland (projects 274477, 284495, 312496, 315721); Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo (ANID), Chile via NCN19_058 (TITANs), and Fondecyt 3190878; the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung; an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship; Allegro, the European ALMA Regional Centre node in the Netherlands, the NL astronomy research network NOVA and the astronomy institutes of the University of Amsterdam, Leiden University and Radboud University; the black hole Initiative at Harvard University, through a grant (60477) from the John Templeton Foundation; the China Scholarship Council; Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT, Mexico, projects U0004-246083, U0004-259839, F0003-272050, M0037-279006, F0003-281692, 104497, 275201, 263356, 57265507); the Delaney Family via the Delaney Family John A. Wheeler Chair at Perimeter Institute; Direccion General de Asuntos del Personal Academico-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (DGAPA-UNAM, projects IN112417 and IN112820); the EACOA Fellowship of the East Asia Core Observatories Association; the European Research Council Synergy Grant "BlackHoleCam: Imaging the Event Horizon of Black Holes" (grant 610058); the Generalitat Valenciana postdoctoral grant APOSTD/2018/177 and GenT Program (project CIDEGENT/2018/021); MICINN Research Project PID2019-108995GB-C22; the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (grants GBMF-3561, GBMF-5278); the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) sezione di Napoli, iniziative specifiche TEONGRAV; the International Max Planck Research School for Astronomy and Astrophysics at the Universities of Bonn and Cologne; Joint Princeton/Flatiron and Joint Columbia/Flatiron Postdoctoral Fellowships, research at the Flatiron Institute is supported by the Simons Foundation; the Japanese Government (Monbukagakusho: MEXT) Scholarship; the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellowship (JP17J08829); the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS, grants QYZDJ-SSW-SLH057, QYZDJSSW-SYS008, ZDBS-LY-SLH011). We further thank the Leverhulme Trust Early Career Research Fellowship; the Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG); theMax Planck Partner Group of the MPG and the CAS; the MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI (grants 18KK0090, JP18K13594, JP18K03656, JP18H03721, 18K03709, 18H01245, JP19H01943, 25120007); the Malaysian Fundamental Research Grant Scheme (FRGS) FRGS/1/2019/STG02/UM/02/6; the MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives (MISTI) Funds; the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of Taiwan (105-2112-M001-025-MY3, 106-2112-M-001-011, 106-2119-M-001-027, 107-2119-M-001-017, 107-2119-M-001-020, 107-2119-M-110005, 108-2112-M-001-048, and 109-2124-M-001-005); the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA, Fermi Guest Investigator grant 80NSSC20K1567, NASA Astrophysics Theory Program grant 80NSSC20K0527, NASA grant NNX17AL82G, Hubble Fellowship grant HST-HF2-51431.001A awarded by the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., for NASA, under contract NAS5-26555, and NASA NuSTAR award 80NSSC20K0645); the National Institute of Natural Sciences (NINS) of Japan; the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant 2016YFA0400704, 2016YFA0400702); the National Science Foundation (NSF, grants AST-0096454, AST-0352953, AST-0521233, AST-0705062, AST-0905844, AST-0922984, AST-1126433, AST-1140030, DGE-1144085, AST-1207704, AST-1207730, AST-1207752, MRI-1228509, OPP-1248097, AST-1310896, AST-1337663, AST-1440254, AST-1555365, AST-1615796, AST-1715061, AST-1716327, AST-1716536, OISE-1743747, AST-1816420, AST-1903847, AST-1935980, AST-2034306); the Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 11573051, 11633006, 11650110427, 10625314, 11721303, 11725312, 11933007, 11991052, 11991053); a fellowship of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2020M671266); the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC, including a Discovery Grant and the NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarships-Doctoral Program); the National Research Foundation of Korea (the Global PhD Fellowship Grant: grants 2014H1A2A1018695, NRF-2015H1A2A1033752, 2015-R1D1A1A01056807, the Korea Research Fellowship Program: NRF-2015H1D3A1066 561, Basic Research Support Grant 2019R1F1A1059721); the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) VICI award (grant 639.043. 513) and Spinoza Prize SPI 78-409; the New Scientific Frontiers with Precision Radio Interferometry Fellowship awarded by the South African Radio Astronomy Observatory (SARAO), which is a facility of the National Research Foundation (NRF), an agency of the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI) of South Africa; the South African Research Chairs Initiative of the Department of Science and Innovation and National Research Foundation; the Onsala Space Observatory (OSO) national infrastructure, for the provisioning of its facilities/observational support (OSO receives funding through the Swedish Research Council under grant 2017-00648) the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics (research at Perimeter Institute is supported by the Government of Canada through the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development and by the Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science); the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (grants PGC2018098915-B-C21, AYA2016-80889-P, PID2019-108995GB-C21); the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award for the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (SEV-2017-0709); the Toray Science Foundation; the Consejeria de Economia, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad of the Junta de Andalucia (grant P18FR-1769), the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (grant 2019AEP112); the US Department of Energy (USDOE) through the Los Alamos National Laboratory (operated by Triad National Security, LLC, for the National Nuclear Security Administration of the USDOE (Contract 89233218CNA000 001); the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 730562 RadioNet; ALMA North America Development Fund; the Academia Sinica; Chandra TM6-17006X and DD7-18089X; the GenT Program (Generalitat Valenciana) Project CIDEGENT/2018/021. This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), supported by NSF grant ACI-1548562, and CyVerse, supported by NSF grants DBI-0735191, DBI-1265383, and DBI-1743442. XSEDE Stampede2 resource at TACC was allocated through TGAST170024 and TG-AST080026N. XSEDE JetStream resource at PTI and TACC was allocated through AST170028. The simulations were performed in part on the SuperMUC cluster at the LRZ in Garching, on the LOEWE cluster in CSC in Frankfurt, and on the HazelHen cluster at the HLRS in Stuttgart. This research was enabled in part by support provided by Compute Ontario (http://computeontario.ca), Calcul Quebec (http://www.calculquebec.ca) and Compute Canada (http://www.computecanada.ca).We thank the staff at the participating observatories, correlation centers, and institutions for their enthusiastic support. This Letter makes use of the following ALMA data: ADS/JAO. ALMA#2016.1.01154.V. ALMA is a partnership of the European Southern Observatory (ESO; Europe, representing its member states), NSF, and National Institutes of Natural Sciences of Japan, together with National Research Council (Canada), Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST; Taiwan), Academia Sinica Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics (ASIAA; Taiwan), and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI; Republic of Korea), in cooperation with the Republic of Chile. The Joint ALMA Observatory is operated by ESO, Associated Universities, Inc. (AUI)/NRAO, and the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ). The NRAO is a facility of the NSF operated under cooperative agreement by AUI. This paper has made use of the following APEX data: Project ID T-091.F-0006-2013. APEX is a collaboration between the Max-Planck-Institut fur Radioastronomie (Germany), ESO, and the Onsala Space Observatory (Sweden). The SMA is a joint project between the SAO and ASIAA and is funded by the Smithsonian Institution and the Academia Sinica. The JCMT is operated by the East Asian Observatory on behalf of the NAOJ, ASIAA, and KASI, as well as the Ministry of Finance of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the National Key R&D Program (No. 2017YFA0402700) of China. Additional funding support for the JCMT is provided by the Science and Technologies Facility Council (UK) and participating universities in the UK and Canada. The LMT is a project operated by the Instituto Nacional de Astrofisica, Optica, y Electronica (Mexico) and the University of Massachusetts at Amherst (USA), with financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia and the National Science Foundation. The IRAM30-mtelescope on Pico Veleta, Spain is operated by IRAM and supported by CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France), MPG (Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Germany) and IGN (Instituto Geografico Nacional, Spain). The SMT is operated by the Arizona Radio Observatory, a part of the Steward Observatory of the University of Arizona, with financial support of operations from the State of Arizona and financial support for instrumentation development from the NSF. The SPT is supported by the National Science Foundation through grant PLR-1248097. Partial support is also provided by the NSF Physics Frontier Center grant PHY-1125897 to the Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago, the Kavli Foundation and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation grant GBMF 947. The SPT hydrogen maser was provided on loan from the GLT, courtesy of ASIAA. The EHTC has received generous donations of FPGA chips from Xilinx Inc., under the Xilinx University Program. The EHTC has benefited from technology shared under open-source license by the Collaboration for Astronomy Signal Processing and Electronics Research (CASPER). The EHT project is grateful to T4Science and Microsemi for their assistance with Hydrogen Masers. This research has made use of NASA's Astrophysics Data System. We gratefully acknowledge the support provided by the extended staff of the ALMA, both from the inception of the ALMA Phasing Project through the observational campaigns of 2017 and 2018. We would like to thank A. Deller and W. Brisken for EHT-specific support with the use of DiFX. We acknowledge the significance that Maunakea, where the SMA and JCMT EHT stations are located, has for the indigenous Hawaiian people. ; Peer reviewed

The existing trajectory of U.S. policy risks sacrificing Western Europe for the sake of Ukraine, and U.S. policymakers need to wake up to this risk. If this were to happen, it would be one of the worst bargains in the entire history of U.S. strategy. Western and Central Europe, and not Ukraine, are and have been for more than a century the area of truly vital U.S. interests on the European continent. Moreover, the crippling of Western Europe and the European Union would destroy Ukraine's own real chances of future democratic prosperity and stability; for these depend chiefly on links to the E.U., not the United States. All the evidence at present suggests that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed, with only very small gains and enormous losses. Nor is there any evidence-based reason to hope for greater Ukrainian success next year, given the balance of military and economic forces between Ukraine and Russia. Faced with this reality, there is increasing official and unofficial talk of arming and supporting Ukraine for an indefinite struggle (though of course this cannot in fact be guaranteed given the opposition of one faction of the Republican Party). An analogy has been made to the case of Israel, which developed as a prosperous and secure quasi-democracy while remaining in a state of frozen conflict and unresolved territorial disputes with its neighbors.Quite apart from the dreadful events of recent days, there are many reasons why this idea is profoundly foolish. They include the fact that if Syria were Russia, Israel would not be Israel. In other words, if Israel had bordered not on a shambolic and impoverished country with a fraction of its GDP and technological capacity, but a nuclear armed power with fourteen times its GDP, Israel would most certainly not have developed as a successful and prosperous democracy. There is no way that the U.S. can secure Ukraine permanently in an open-ended war with Russia.Perhaps most important of all however is the way in which this vision totally ignores the effects on Europe, and U.S. interests in Europe. This would not matter much if European countries were economically successful and politically stable, but this is rapidly ceasing to be the case.In the old heartland of the EU, liberal democratic politics are crumbling. Italy is ruled by a radical conservative government. Opinion polls in France suggest that if elections were held today, Marine Le Pen would win by a wide margin. In Sweden — almost unbelievably for someone who lived through the long dull summer of Abbaesque Swedish social democracy — the army is being called on for help in combating violence by immigrant drug gangs, and the radical nationalist Sweden Democrats are the second largest party. Above all, there is Germany, without which no stable and successful European Union is possible. As German historian Tarik Cyrul Amar has written: "Germany's perfect adherence to Western policy on Russia and China has an ominous price…We have assumed that the first country to buckle under the economic strain of the war over Ukraine would be Russia. But what if it is Germany that stumbles first? Germans stressed about their economy, distrusting their elites as favoring foreign interests, and disenchanted with centrist values and methods— a picture too familiar for comfort." The state elections in Bavaria and Hesse this month showed a surge in support for the right-wing nationalist Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) and Freie Waehler (Free Voter) parties. According to opinion polls, AfD now has the second largest support nationwide, behind the Christian Democrats but pushing the Social Democrats into third place, and far ahead of the Greens and the Liberals.Up to now, all the traditional mainstream parties have been united in their refusal to form coalitions with the AfD. If continued, the rise in the party's support will however make this approach increasingly unworkable. Either the CDU will have to form governing coalitions with the AfD (as the CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union, has already done with the Freie Waehler in Bavaria), or all the mainstream parties will have to form permanent coalitions to keep them out of office.The latter course would recall the last years of the Weimar Republic, and would almost certainly strengthen the radical parties still further, since critics of government policies would have nowhere else to go. The most radical proposal is to dub AfD a neo-Nazi party and ban it, but this would lead to massive protests and drive its supporters towards violence. Whatever happens, Germany seems set for a prolonged period of deep political instability and polarization.The original roots of support for AfD and similar parties in Europe lie in fear of mass migration and hostility to the centralizing (and sometimes dictatorial) tendencies of the European Union. Their support has however been greatly increased by the deepening economic recession into which Germany has been plunged by the rise in energy prices consequent on the war in Ukraine. German economic success in recent decades was largely built on cheap, plentiful and reliable Russian gas.This factor helped mask worsening structural defects in the German economy, which the present crisis is exposing. Coupled with the end of the Chinese boom and U.S.-driven economic warfare against China, the result is that there is now serious talk in Germany of "de-industrialization." Should this in fact occur, the political, social, cultural and psychological results could be catastrophic; for the rebuilding of the German national identity after 1945 took place largely on the basis of the "economic miracle," and the belief that this reflected a superior German model of cooperation between capital and labor, and a strong industry-based middle class (the so called Mittelstand). If belief in these collapses, we could be looking at something akin to a national nervous breakdown.An unending semi-frozen war in Ukraine would drastically worsen Germany's — and Europe's – economic decline and consequent political disorder. Especially if coupled with repeated crises in the Middle East, it would make the restoration of stability in energy prices impossible. Such a conflict would inevitably break out periodically into major battles, possibly leading to new Russian victories. There would be the perpetual risk that an unintended collision between Russia and NATO could escalate towards nuclear war. It should not be hard to imagine what this would do to business confidence in Europe.There is a tendency now for Americans to congratulate themselves on the submission of Europe to American strategy as a result of the war in Ukraine. This underestimates the threat to Europe and of U.S. interests there. The threat, as described, is overwhelmingly an internal one, resulting from a deadly cocktail of economic stagnation, uncontrolled migration, and political extremism, worsened by the war in Ukraine. If present patterns continue, the result will be to cripple Europe both economically and politically.Economic prosperity and liberal democracy in Europe form a key pillar of America's own power in the world and therefore a vital U.S. national interest. Without them, America's own economic power will be gravely weakened, and the prestige of democracy in the world shattered. There will be little point in the U.S. presenting itself as the leader of democracy in Asia if it has collapsed in Europe.Moreover, the United States waged two world wars and a Cold War in Europe to prevent the great economies of Western Europe from falling under the control of a hostile great power. Until a decade or so ago, no American ever dreamed of seeing Ukraine in this way. If therefore the U.S. analysis is that Ukraine cannot win, for the sake of Europe and U.S. vital interests there, Washington should lend all its efforts to bring about an early peace.Sophia Ampgkarian contributed to the research for this article.

Klioner, S. A., et al. (Gaia Collaboration) ; [Context] Gaia Early Data Release 3 (Gaia EDR3) provides accurate astrometry for about 1.6 million compact (QSO-like) extragalactic sources, 1.2 million of which have the best-quality five-parameter astrometric solutions. [Aims] The proper motions of QSO-like sources are used to reveal a systematic pattern due to the acceleration of the solar systembarycentre with respect to the rest frame of the Universe. Apart from being an important scientific result by itself, the acceleration measured in this way is a good quality indicator of the Gaia astrometric solution. [Methods] Theeffect of the acceleration was obtained as a part of the general expansion of the vector field of proper motions in vector spherical harmonics (VSH). Various versions of the VSH fit and various subsets of the sources were tried and compared to get the most consistent result and a realistic estimate of its uncertainty. Additional tests with the Gaia astrometric solution were used to get a better idea of the possible systematic errors in the estimate. [Results] Our best estimate of the acceleration based on Gaia EDR3 is (2.32 ± 0.16) × 10-10 m s-2 (or 7.33 ±0.51 km s-1 Myr-1) towards α = 269.1° ± 5.4°, δ = -31.6° ± 4.1°, corresponding to a proper motion amplitude of 5.05 ±0.35 μas yr-1. This is in good agreement with the acceleration expected from current models of the Galactic gravitational potential. We expect that future Gaia data releases will provide estimates of the acceleration with uncertainties substantially below 0.1 μas yr-1. ; The Gaia mission and data processing have financially been supported by, in alphabetical order by country: the Algerian Centre de Recherche en Astronomie, Astrophysique et Géophysique of Bouzareah Observatory; the Austrian Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF) Hertha Firnberg Programme through grants T359, P20046, and P23737; the BELgian federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO) through various PROgramme de Développement d'Expériences scientifiques (PRODEX) grants and the Polish Academy of Sciences - Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek through grant VS.091.16N, and the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS); the Brazil-France exchange programmes Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) and Coordenação de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) - Comité Français d'Evaluation de la Coopération Universitaire et Scientifique avec le Brésil (COFECUB); the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) through grants 11573054 and 11703065 and the China Scholarship Council through grant 201806040200; the Tenure Track Pilot Programme of the Croatian Science Foundation and the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne and the project TTP-2018-07-1171 'Mining the Variable Sky', with the funds of the Croatian-Swiss Research Programme; the Czech-Republic Ministry of Education, Youth, and Sports through grant LG 15010 and INTER-EXCELLENCE grant LTAUSA18093, and the Czech Space Office through ESA PECS contract 98058; the Danish Ministry of Science; the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research through grant IUT40-1; the European Commission's Sixth Framework Programme through the European Leadership in Space Astrometry (ELSA) Marie Curie Research Training Network (MRTN-CT-2006-033481), through Marie Curie project PIOF-GA-2009-255267 (Space AsteroSeismology & RR Lyrae stars, SAS-RRL), and through a Marie Curie Transfer-of-Knowledge (ToK) fellowship (MTKD-CT-2004-014188); the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme through grant FP7-606740 (FP7-SPACE-2013-1) for the Gaia European Network for Improved data User Services (GENIUS) and through grant 264895 for the Gaia Research for European Astronomy Training (GREAT-ITN) network; the European Research Council (ERC) through grants 320360 and 647208 and through the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation and excellent science programmes through Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant 745617 as well as grants 670519 (Mixing and Angular Momentum tranSport of massIvE stars – MAMSIE), 687378 (Small Bodies: Near and Far), 682115 (Using the Magellanic Clouds to Understand the Interaction of Galaxies), and 695099 (A sub-percent distance scale from binaries and Cepheids – CepBin); the European Science Foundation (ESF), in the framework of the Gaia Research for European Astronomy Training Research Network Programme (GREAT-ESF); the European Space Agency (ESA) in the framework of the Gaia project, through the Plan for European Cooperating States (PECS) programme through grants for Slovenia, through contracts C98090 and 4000106398/12/NL/KML for Hungary, and through contract 4000115263/15/NL/IB for Germany; the Academy of Finland and the Magnus Ehrnrooth Foundation; the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) through grant ANR-10-IDEX-0001-02 for the 'Investissements d'avenir' programme, through grant ANR-15-CE31-0007 for project 'Modelling the Milky Way in the Gaia era' (MOD4Gaia), through grant ANR-14-CE33-0014-01 for project 'The Milky Way disc formation in the Gaia era' (ARCHEOGAL), and through grant ANR-15-CE31-0012-01 for project 'Unlocking the potential of Cepheids as primary distance calibrators' (UnlockCepheids), the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and its SNO Gaia of the Institut des Sciences de l'Univers (INSU), the 'Action Fédératrice Gaia' of the Observatoire de Paris, the Région de Franche-Comté, and the Programme National de Gravitation, Références, Astronomie, et Métrologie (GRAM) of CNRS/INSU with the Institut National de Physique (INP) and the Institut National de Physique nucléaire et de Physique des Particules (IN2P3) co-funded by CNES; the German Aerospace Agency (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., DLR) through grants 50QG0501, 50QG0601, 50QG0602, 50QG0701, 50QG0901, 50QG1001, 50QG1101, 50QG1401, 50QG1402, 50QG1403, 50QG1404, and 50QG1904 and the Centre for Information Services and High Performance Computing (ZIH) at the Technische Universität Dresden for generous allocations of computer time; the Hungarian Academy of Sciences through the Lendület Programme grants LP2014-17 and LP2018-7 and through the Premium Postdoctoral Research Programme (L. Molnár), and the Hungarian National Research, Development, and Innovation Office (NKFIH) through grant KH_18-130405; the Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) through a Royal Society - SFI University Research Fellowship (M. Fraser); the Israel Science Foundation (ISF) through grant 848/16; the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) through contracts I/037/08/0, I/058/10/0, 2014-025-R.0, 2014-025-R.1.2015, and 2018-24-HH.0 to the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF), contract 2014-049-R.0/1/2 to INAF for the Space Science Data Centre (SSDC, formerly known as the ASI Science Data Center, ASDC), contracts I/008/10/0, 2013/030/I.0, 2013-030-I.0.1-2015, and 2016-17-I.0 to the Aerospace Logistics Technology Engineering Company (ALTEC S.p.A.), INAF, and the Italian Ministry of Education, University, and Research (Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Università e della Ricerca) through the Premiale project 'MIning The Cosmos Big Data and Innovative Italian Technology for Frontier Astrophysics and Cosmology' (MITiC); the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) through grant NWO-M-614.061.414, through a VICI grant (A. Helmi), and through a Spinoza prize (A. Helmi), and the Netherlands Research School for Astronomy (NOVA); the Polish National Science Centre through HARMONIA grant 2019/30/M/ST9/00311, DAINA grant 2017/27/L/ST9/03221, and PRELUDIUM grant 2017/25/N/ST9/01253, and the Ministry of Science and Higher Education (MNiSW) through grant DIR/WK/2018/12; the Portugese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) through grants SFRH/BPD/74697/2010 and SFRH/BD/128840/2017 and the Strategic Programme UID/FIS/00099/2019 for CENTRA; the Slovenian Research Agency through grant P1-0188; the Spanish Ministry of Economy (MINECO/FEDER, UE) through grants ESP2016-80079-C2-1-R, ESP2016-80079-C2-2-R, RTI2018-095076-B-C21, RTI2018-095076-B-C22, BES-2016-078499, and BES-2017-083126 and the Juan de la Cierva formación 2015 grant FJCI-2015-2671, the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sports through grant FPU16/03827, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN) through grant AYA2017-89841P for project 'Estudio de las propiedades de los fósiles estelares en el entorno del Grupo Local' and through grant TIN2015-65316-P for project 'Computación de Altas Prestaciones VII', the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence Programme of the Spanish Government through grant SEV2015-0493, the Institute of Cosmos Sciences University of Barcelona (ICCUB, Unidad de Excelencia 'María de Maeztu') through grants MDM-2014-0369 and CEX2019-000918-M, the University of Barcelona's official doctoral programme for the development of an R+D+i project through an Ajuts de Personal Investigador en Formació (APIF) grant, the Spanish Virtual Observatory through project AyA2017-84089, the Galician Regional Government, Xunta de Galicia, through grants ED431B-2018/42 and ED481A-2019/155, support received from the Centro de Investigación en Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones (CITIC) funded by the Xunta de Galicia, the Xunta de Galicia and the Centros Singulares de Investigación de Galicia for the period 2016-2019 through CITIC, the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) / Fondo Europeo de Desenvolvemento Rexional (FEDER) for the Galicia 2014-2020 Programme through grant ED431G-2019/01, the Red Española de Supercomputación (RES) computer resources at MareNostrum, the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre - Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS) through activities AECT-2016-1-0006, AECT-2016-2-0013, AECT-2016-3-0011, and AECT-2017-1-0020, the Departament d'Innovació, Universitats i Empresa de la Generalitat de Catalunya through grant 2014-SGR-1051 for project 'Models de Programació i Entorns d'Execució Parallels' (MPEXPAR), and Ramon y Cajal Fellowship RYC2018-025968-I; the Swedish National Space Agency (SNSA/Rymdstyrelsen); the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation through the Mesures d'Accompagnement, the Swiss Activités Nationales Complémentaires, and the Swiss National Science Foundation; the United Kingdom Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council (PPARC), the United Kingdom Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), and the United Kingdom Space Agency (UKSA) through the following grants to the University of Bristol, the University of Cambridge, the University of Edinburgh, the University of Leicester, the Mullard Space Sciences Laboratory of University College London, and the United Kingdom Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL): PP/D006511/1, PP/D006546/1, PP/D006570/1, ST/I000852/1, ST/J005045/1, ST/K00056X/1, ST/K000209/1, ST/K000756/1, ST/L006561/1, ST/N000595/1, ST/N000641/1, ST/N000978/1, ST/N001117/1, ST/S000089/1, ST/S000976/1, ST/S001123/1, ST/S001948/1, ST/S002103/1, and ST/V000969/1.

Full list of authors: Acciari, V. A.; Ansoldi, S.; Antonelli, L. A.; Arbet Engels, A.; Artero, M.; Asano, K.; Babić, A.; Baquero, A.; Barres de Almeida, U.; Barrio, J. A.; Batković, I.; Becerra González, J.; Bednarek, W.; Bellizzi, L.; Bernardini, E.; Bernardos, M.; Berti, A.; Besenrieder, J.; Bhattacharyya, W.; Bigongiari, C.; Blanch, O.; Bošnjak, Ž.; Busetto, G.; Carosi, R.; Ceribella, G.; Cerruti, M.; Chai, Y.; Chilingarian, A.; Cikota, S.; Colak, S. M.; Colombo, E.; Contreras, J. L.; Cortina, J.; Covino, S.; D'Amico, G.; D'Elia, V.; da Vela, P.; Dazzi, F.; de Angelis, A.; de Lotto, B.; Delfino, M.; Delgado, J.; Delgado Mendez, C.; Depaoli, D.; di Pierro, F.; di Venere, L.; Do Souto Espiñeira, E.; Dominis Prester, D.; Donini, A.; Doro, M.; Fallah Ramazani, V.; Fattorini, A.; Ferrara, G.; Fonseca, M. V.; Font, L.; Fruck, C.; Fukami, S.; García López, R. J.; Garczarczyk, M.; Gasparyan, S.; Gaug, M.; Giglietto, N.; Giordano, F.; Gliwny, P.; Godinović, N.; Green, J. G.; Green, D.; Hadasch, D.; Hahn, A.; Heckmann, L.; Herrera, J.; Hoang, J.; Hrupec, D.; Hütten, M.; Inada, T.; Inoue, S.; Ishio, K.; Iwamura, Y.; Jiménez, I.; Jormanainen, J.; Jouvin, L.; Kajiwara, Y.; Karjalainen, M.; Kerszberg, D.; Kobayashi, Y.; Kubo, H.; Kushida, J.; Lamastra, A.; Lelas, D.; Leone, F.; Lindfors, E.; Lombardi, S.; Longo, F.; López-Coto, R.; López-Moya, M.; López-Oramas, A.; Loporchio, S.; Machado de Oliveira Fraga, B.; Maggio, C.; Majumdar, P.; Makariev, M.; Mallamaci, M.; Maneva, G.; Manganaro, M.; Maraschi, L.; Mariotti, M.; Martínez, M.; Mazin, D.; Menchiari, S.; Mender, S.; Mićanović, S.; Miceli, D.; Miener, T.; Minev, M.; Miranda, J. M.; Mirzoyan, R.; Molina, E.; Moralejo, A.; Morcuende, D.; Moreno, V.; Moretti, E.; Neustroev, V.; Nigro, C.; Nilsson, K.; Nishijima, K.; Noda, K.; Nozaki, S.; Ohtani, Y.; Oka, T.; Otero-Santos, J.; Paiano, S.; Palatiello, M.; Paneque, D.; Paoletti, R.; Paredes, J. M.; Pavletić, L.; Peñil, P.; Perennes, C.; Persic, M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Prandini, E.; Priyadarshi, C.; Puljak, I.; Ribó, M.; Rico, J.; Righi, C.; Rugliancich, A.; Saha, L.; Sahakyan, N.; Saito, T.; Sakurai, S.; Satalecka, K.; Saturni, F. G.; Schmidt, K.; Schweizer, T.; Sitarek, J.; Šnidarić, I.; Sobczynska, D.; Spolon, A.; Stamerra, A.; Strom, D.; Strzys, M.; Suda, Y.; Surić, T.; Takahashi, M.; Tavecchio, F.; Temnikov, P.; Terzić, T.; Teshima, M.; Tosti, L.; Truzzi, S.; Tutone, A.; Ubach, S.; van Scherpenberg, J.; Vanzo, G.; Vazquez Acosta, M.; Ventura, S.; Verguilov, V.; Vigorito, C. F.; Vitale, V.; Vovk, I.; Will, M.; Wunderlich, C.; Zarić, D.; Baack, D.; Balbo, M.; Biederbeck, N.; Biland, A.; Bretz, T.; Buss, J.; Dorner, D.; Eisenberger, L.; Elsaesser, D.; Hildebrand, D.; Iotov, R.; Mannheim, K.; Neise, D.; Noethe, M.; Paravac, A.; Rhode, W.; Schleicher, B.; Sliusar, V.; Walter, R.; D'Ammando, F.; Horan, D.; Lien, A. Y.; Baloković, M.; Madejski, G. M.; Perri, M.; Verrecchia, F.; Leto, C.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Tornikoski, M.; Ramakrishnan, V.; Järvelä, E.; Vera, R. J. C.; Chamani, W.; Villata, M.; Raiteri, C. M.; Gupta, A. C.; Pandey, A.; Fuentes, A.; Agudo, I.; Casadio, C.; Semkov, E.; Ibryamov, S.; Marchini, A.; Bachev, R.; Strigachev, A.; Ovcharov, E.; Bozhilov, V.; Valcheva, A.; Zaharieva, E.; Damljanovic, G.; Vince, O.; Larionov, V. M.; Borman, G. A.; Grishina, T. S.; Hagen-Thorn, V. A.; Kopatskaya, E. N.; Larionova, E. G.; Larionova, L. V.; Morozova, D. A.; Nikiforova, A. A.; Savchenko, S. S.; Troitskiy, I. S.; Troitskaya, Y. V.; Vasilyev, A. A.; Merkulova, O. A.; Chen, W. P; Samal, M.; Lin, H. C.; Moody, J. W.; Sadun, A. C.; Jorstad, S. G.; Marscher, A. P.; Weaver, Z. R.; Feige, M.; Kania, J.; Kopp, M.; Kunkel, L.; Reinhart, D.; Scherbantin, A.; Schneider, L.; Lorey, C.; Acosta-Pulido, J. A.; Carnerero, M. I.; Carosati, D.; Kurtanidze, S. O.; Kurtanidze, O. M.; Nikolashvili, M. G.; Chigladze, R. A.; Ivanidze, R. Z.; Kimeridze, G. N.; Sigua, L. A.; Joner, M. D.; Spencer, M.; Giroletti, M.; Marchili, N.; Righini, S.; Rizzi, N.; Bonnoli, G.; MAGIC Collaboration; Fact Collaboration.-- This is an Open Access article, published by EDP Sciences, under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ; Aims. We present a detailed characterisation and theoretical interpretation of the broadband emission of the paradigmatic TeV blazar Mrk 421, with a special focus on the multi-band flux correlations. Methods. The dataset has been collected through an extensive multi-wavelength campaign organised between 2016 December and 2017 June. The instruments involved are MAGIC, FACT, Fermi-LAT, Swift, GASP-WEBT, OVRO, Medicina, and Metsahovi. Additionally, four deep exposures (several hours long) with simultaneous MAGIC and NuSTAR observations allowed a precise measurement of the falling segments of the two spectral components. Results. The very-high-energy (VHE; E 100 GeV) gamma rays and X-rays are positively correlated at zero time lag, but the strength and characteristics of the correlation change substantially across the various energy bands probed. The VHE versus X-ray fluxes follow dierent patterns, partly due to substantial changes in the Compton dominance for a few days without a simultaneous increase in the X-ray flux (i.e., orphan gamma-ray activity). Studying the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) during the days including NuSTAR observations, we show that these changes can be explained within a one-zone leptonic model with a blob that increases its size over time. The peak frequency of the synchrotron bump varies by two orders of magnitude throughout the campaign. Our multi-band correlation study also hints at an anti-correlation between UV-optical and X-ray at a significance higher than 3. A VHE flare observed on MJD 57788 (2017 February 4) shows gamma-ray variability on multi-hour timescales, with a factor ten increase in the TeV flux but only a moderate increase in the keV flux. The related broadband SED is better described by a two-zone leptonic scenario rather than by a one-zone scenario.We find that the flare can be produced by the appearance of a compact second blob populated by high energetic electrons spanning a narrow range of Lorentz factors, from 0 min = 2104 to 0 max = 6105. © 2021 Georg Thieme Verlag. All rights reserved. ; The MAGIC Collaboration would like to thank the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias for the excellent working conditions at the Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos in La Palma. The financial support of the German BMBF, MPG and HGF; the Italian INFN and INAF; the Swiss National Fund SNF; the ERDF under the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN) (FPA2017-87859-P, FPA2017-85668-P, FPA2017-82729-C6-5-R, FPA2017-90566-REDC, PID2019-104114RB-C31, PID2019-104114RB-C32, PID2019-105510GB-C31,PID2019-107847RB-C41, PID2019-107847RB-C42, PID2019-107847RB-C44, PID2019-107988GB-C22); the Indian Department of Atomic Energy; the Japanese ICRR, the University of Tokyo, JSPS, and MEXT; the Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science, National RI Roadmap Project DO1-268/16.12.2019 and the Academy of Finland grant nr. 320045 is gratefully acknowledged. This work was also supported by the Spanish Centro de Excelencia "Severo Ochoa" SEV-2016-0588, SEV-2017-0709 and CEX2019-000920-S, and "María de Maeztu" CEX2019-000918-M, the Unidad de Excelencia "María de Maeztu" MDM-2015-0509-18-2 and the "la Caixa" Foundation (fellowship LCF/BQ/PI18/11630012) and by the CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya; by the Croatian Science Foundation (HrZZ) Project IP-2016-06-9782 and the University of Rijeka Project 13.12.1.3.02; by the DFG Collaborative Research Centers SFB823/C4 and SFB876/C3; the Polish National Research Centre grant UMO-2016/22/M/ST9/00382; and by the Brazilian MCTIC, CNPq and FAPERJ. The important contributions from ETH Zurich grants ETH-10.08-2 and ETH-27.12-1 as well as the funding by the Swiss SNF and the German BMBF (Verbundforschung Astro- und Astroteilchenphysik) and HAP (Helmoltz Alliance for Astroparticle Physics) are gratefully acknowledged. Part of this work is supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the Collaborative Research Center SFB 876 "Providing Information by Resource-Constrained Analysis", project C3. We are thankful for the very valuable contributions from E. Lorenz, D. Renker and G. Viertel during the early phase of the project. We thank the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias for allowing us to operate the telescope at the Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos in La Palma, the Max-Planck-Institut für Physik for providing us with the mount of the former HEGRA CT3 telescope, and the MAGIC collaboration for their support. The Fermi LAT Collaboration acknowledges generous ongoing support from a number of agencies and institutes that have supported both the development and the operation of the LAT as well as scientific data analysis. These include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Department of Energy in the United States, the Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique and the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules in France, the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare in Italy, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) in Japan, and the K. A. Wallenberg Foundation, the Swedish Research Council and the Swedish National Space Board in Sweden. Additional support for science analysis during the operations phase is gratefully acknowledged from the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica in Italy and the Centre National d'Études Spatiales in France. This work performed in part under DOE Contract DE-AC02-76SF00515. This work made use of data from the NuSTAR mission, a project led by the California Institute of Technology, managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. We thank the NuSTAR Operations, Software, and Calibration teams for support with the execution and analysis of these observations. This research has made use of the NuSTAR Data Analysis Software (NuSTARDAS) jointly developed by the ASI Science Data Center (ASDC; Italy) and the California Institute of Technology (USA). This research has also made use of the XRT Data Analysis Software (XRTDAS) developed under the responsibility of the ASI Science Data Center (ASDC), Italy. A.A.E and D.P acknowledge support from the Deutsche Forschungs gemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy – EXC-2094 – 390783311. M. B. acknowledges support from the YCAA Prize Postdoctoral Fellowship and from the Black Hole Initiative at Harvard University, which is funded in part by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (grant GBMF8273) and in part by the John Templeton Foundation. This publication makes use of data obtained at the Metsähovi Radio Observatory, operated by Aalto University in Finland. This research has made use of data from the OVRO 40-m monitoring program (Richards et al. 2011) which is supported in part by NASA grants NNX08AW31G, NNX11A043G, and NNX14AQ89G and NSF grants AST-0808050 and AST-1109911. I.A. acknowledges financial support from the Spanish "Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación" (MCINN) through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award for the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía-CSIC (SEV-2017-0709). Acquisition and reduction of the MAPCAT data was supported in part by MICINN through grants AYA2016-80889-P and PID2019-107847RB-C44. The MAPCAT observations were carried out at the German-Spanish Calar Alto Observatory, which is jointly operated by Junta de Andalucía and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. C.C. acknowledges support from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the grant agreement No 771282. This research was partially supported by the Bulgarian National Science Fund of the Ministry of Education and Science under grants KP-06-H28/3 (2018), KP-06-H38/4 (2019) and KP-06-KITAJ/2 (2020). We acknowledge support by Bulgarian National Science Fund under grant DN18-10/2017 and National RI Roadmap Projects DO1-277/16.12.2019 and DO1-268/16.12.2019 of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Bulgaria. This research was supported by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (contract No 451-03-68/2020-14/200002). G.D. acknowledges observing grant support from the Institute of Astronomy and Rozhen NAO BAS through the bilateral joint research project "Gaia Celestial Reference Frame (CRF) and fast variable astronomical objects" (2020–2022, head – G. Damljanovic). The BU group was supported in part by NASA Fermi guest investigator program grants 80NSSC19K1505 and 80NSSC20K1566. This study was based in part on observations conducted using the 1.8 m Perkins Telescope Observatory (PTO) in Arizona, which is owned and operated by Boston University. This article is partly based on observations made with the LCOGT Telescopes, one of whose nodes is located at the Observatorios de Canarias del IAC on the island of Tenerife in the Observatorio del Teide. This article is also based partly on data obtained with the STELLA robotic telescopes in Tenerife, an AIP facility jointly operated by AIP and IAC. The Abastumani team acknowledges financial support by the Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation under contract FR-19-6174. Based on observations with the Medicina telescope operated by INAF – Istituto di Radioastronomia. ; Peer reviewed

This is an open accBroderick, Avery E.; Gold, Roman; Karami, Mansour; Preciado-López, Jorge A.; Tiede, Paul; Pu, Hung-Yi; Akiyama, Kazunori; Alberdi, Antxon; Alef, Walter; Asada, Keiichi; Azulay, Rebecca; Baczko, Anne-Kathrin; Baloković, Mislav; Barrett, John; Bintley, Dan; Blackburn, Lindy; Boland, Wilfred; Bouman, Katherine L.; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Bremer, Michael; Brinkerink, Christiaan D.; Brissenden, Roger; Britzen, Silke; Broguiere, Dominique; Bronzwaer, Thomas; Byun, Do-Young; Carlstrom, John E.; Chael, Andrew; Chatterjee, Shami; Chatterjee, Koushik; Chen, Ming-Tang; Chen, Yongjun; Cho, Ilje; Conway, John E.; Cordes, James M.; Crew, Geoffrey B.; Cui, Yuzhu; Davelaar, Jordy; De Laurentis, Mariafelicia; Deane, Roger; Dempsey, Jessica; Desvignes, Gregory; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Eatough, Ralph P.; Falcke, Heino; Fish, Vincent L.; Fomalont, Ed; Fraga-Encinas, Raquel; Friberg, Per; Fromm, Christian M.; Galison, Peter; Gammie, Charles F.; García, Roberto; Gentaz, Olivier; Georgiev, Boris; Goddi, Ciriaco; Gómez, José L.; Gu, Minfeng; Gurwell, Mark; Hada, Kazuhiro; Hecht, Michael H.; Hesper, Ronald; Ho, Luis C.; Ho, Paul; Honma, Mareki; Huang, Chih-Wei L.; Huang, Lei; Hughes, David H.; Inoue, Makoto; Issaoun, Sara; James, David J.; Janssen, Michael; Jeter, Britton; Jiang, Wu; Jiménez-Rosales, Alejandra; Johnson, Michael D.; Jorstad, Svetlana; Jung, Taehyun; Karuppusamy, Ramesh; Kawashima, Tomohisa; Keating, Garrett K.; Kettenis, Mark; Kim, Jae-Young; Kim, Jongsoo; Kino, Motoki; Koay, Jun Yi; Koch, Patrick M.; Koyama, Shoko; Kramer, Michael; Kramer, Carsten; Krichbaum, Thomas P.; Kuo, Cheng-Yu; Lee, Sang-Sung; Li, Yan-Rong; Li, Zhiyuan; Lindqvist, Michael; Lico, Rocco; Liu, Kuo; Liuzzo, Elisabetta; Lo, Wen-Ping; Lobanov, Andrei P.; Loinard, Laurent; Lonsdale, Colin; Lu, Ru-Sen; MacDonald, Nicholas R.; Mao, Jirong; Marscher, Alan P.; Martí-Vidal, Iván; Matsushita, Satoki; Matthews, Lynn D.; Menten, Karl M.; Mizuno, Yosuke; Mizuno, Izumi; Moran, James M.; Moriyama, Kotaro; Moscibrodzka, Monika; Müller, Cornelia; Nagai, Hiroshi; Nagar, Neil M.; Nakamura, Masanori; Narayan, Ramesh; Narayanan, Gopal; Natarajan, Iniyan; Neri, Roberto; Ni, Chunchong; Noutsos, Aristeidis; Okino, Hiroki; Olivares, Héctor; Ortiz-León, Gisela N.; Oyama, Tomoaki; Palumbo, Daniel C. M.; Park, Jongho; Pen, Ue-Li; Pesce, Dominic W.; Piétu, Vincent; Plambeck, Richard; PopStefanija, Aleksandar; Porth, Oliver; Prather, Ben; Ramakrishnan, Venkatessh; Rao, Ramprasad; Rawlings, Mark G.; Raymond, Alexander W.; Rezzolla, Luciano; Ripperda, Bart; Roelofs, Freek; Rogers, Alan; Ros, Eduardo; Rose, Mel; Rottmann, Helge; Ruszczyk, Chet; Ryan, Benjamin R.; Rygl, Kazi L. J.; Sánchez, Salvador; Sánchez-Arguelles, David; Sasada, Mahito; Savolainen, Tuomas; Schloerb, F. Peter; Schuster, Karl-Friedrich; Shao, Lijing; Shen, Zhiqiang; Small, Des; Sohn, Bong Won; SooHoo, Jason; Tazaki, Fumie; Tilanus, Remo P. J.; Titus, Michael; Toma, Kenji; Torne, Pablo; Traianou, Efthalia; Trippe, Sascha; Tsuda, Shuichiro; van Bemmel, Ilse; van Langevelde, Huib Jan; van Rossum, Daniel R.; Wagner, Jan; Wardle, John; Weintroub, Jonathan; Wex, Norbert; Wharton, Robert; Wielgus, Maciek; Wong, George N.; Wu, Qingwen; Yoon, Doosoo; Young, André; Young, Ken; Younsi, Ziri; Yuan, Feng; Yuan, Ye-Fei; Zensus, J. Anton; Zhao, Guangyao; Zhao, Shan-Shan; Zhu, Ziyan; Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration ess article.-- Full list of authors: ; The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) provides the unprecedented ability to directly resolve the structure and dynamics of black hole emission regions on scales smaller than their horizons. This has the potential to critically probe the mechanisms by which black holes accrete and launch outflows, and the structure of supermassive black hole spacetimes. However, accessing this information is a formidable analysis challenge for two reasons. First, the EHT natively produces a variety of data types that encode information about the image structure in nontrivial ways; these are subject to a variety of systematic effects associated with very long baseline interferometry and are supplemented by a wide variety of auxiliary data on the primary EHT targets from decades of other observations. Second, models of the emission regions and their interaction with the black hole are complex, highly uncertain, and computationally expensive to construct. As a result, the scientific utilization of EHT observations requires a flexible, extensible, and powerful analysis framework. We present such a framework, Themis, which defines a set of interfaces between models, data, and sampling algorithms that facilitates future development. We describe the design and currently existing components of Themis, how Themis has been validated thus far, and present additional analyses made possible by Themis that illustrate its capabilities. Importantly, we demonstrate that Themis is able to reproduce prior EHT analyses, extend these, and do so in a computationally efficient manner that can efficiently exploit modern high-performance computing facilities. Themis has already been used extensively in the scientific analysis and interpretation of the first EHT observations of M87. © 2020. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society. ; This work was made possible by the facilities of the Shared Hierarchical Academic Research Computing Network (SHARCNET: www.sharcnet.ca) and Compute/Calcul Canada (www.computecanada.ca). Computations were made on the supercomputer Mammouth Parallele 2 from University of Sherbrooke, managed by Calcul Quebec and Compute Canada. The operation of this supercomputer is funded by the Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI), the ministere de l'Economie, de la science et de l'innovation du Quebec (MESI), and the Fonds de recherche du Quebec-Nature et technologies (FRQ-NT). This work was supported in part by Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics. Research at Perimeter Institute is supported by the Government of Canada through the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada and by the Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade. A.E.B. thanks the Delaney Family for their generous financial support via the Delaney Family John A. Wheeler Chair at Perimeter Institute. A.E.B., P.T., and M.K. receive additional financial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada through a Discovery Grant. R.G. receives additional support from the ERC synergy grant "BlackHoleCam: Imaging the Event Horizon of Black Holes" (grant No. 610058). We thank Jason Dexter for helpful comments and suggestions. We further thank the following organizations and programs: the Academy of Finland (projects 274477, 284495, 312496); the Advanced European Network of E-infrastructures for Astronomy with the SKA (AENEAS) project, supported by the European Commission Framework Programme Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation action under grant agreement 731016; the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung; Black Hole Initiative at Harvard University, through grants from the John Templeton Foundation and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; the China Scholarship Council; Comision Nacional de Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (CONICYT, Chile, via PIA ACT172033, Fondecyt 1171506, BASAL AFB-170002, ALMA-conicyt 31140007); Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT, Mexico, projects 104497, 275201, 279006, 281692); the Delaney Family via the Delaney Family John A. Wheeler Chair at Perimeter Institute; Direccion General de Asuntos del Personal Academico-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (DGAPA-UNAM, project IN112417); the European Research Council Synergy Grant "BlackHoleCam: Imaging the Event Horizon of Black Holes" (grant 610058); the Generalitat Valenciana postdoctoral grant APOSTD/2018/177; the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (grants GBMF-3561, GBMF-5278); the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) sezione di Napoli, iniziative specifiche TEONGRAV; the International Max Planck Research School for Astronomy and Astrophysics at the Universities of Bonn and Cologne; the Jansky Fellowship program of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO); the Japanese Government (Monbukagakusho: MEXT) Scholarship; the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellowship (JP17J08829); the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS, grants QYZDJ-SSW-SLH057, QYZDJ-SSW-SYS008); the Leverhulme Trust Early Career Research Fellowship; the Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (MPG); the Max Planck Partner Group of the MPG and the CAS; the MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI (grants 18KK0090, JP18K13594, JP18K03656, JP18H03721, 18K03709, 18H01245, 25120007); the MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives (MISTI) Funds; the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of Taiwan (105-2112-M-001-025-MY3, 106-2112-M-001-011, 106-2119-M-001-027, 107-2119-M-001-017, 107-2119-M-001-020, and 107-2119-M-110-005); the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA, Fermi Guest Investigator grant 80NSSC17K0649); the National Institute of Natural Sciences (NINS) of Japan; the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant 2016YFA0400704, 2016YFA0400702); the National Science Foundation (NSF, grants AST-0096454, AST-0352953, AST-0521233, AST-0705062, AST-0905844, AST-0922984, AST-1126433, AST-1140030, DGE-1144085, AST-1207704, AST-1207730, AST-1207752, MRI-1228509, OPP-1248097, AST-1310896, AST-1337663, AST-1440254, AST-1555365, AST-1715061, AST-1615796, AST-1716327, OISE-1743747, AST-1816420); the Natural Science Foundation of China (grants 11573051, 11633006, 11650110427, 10625314, 11721303, 11725312); the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC, including a Discovery Grant and the NSERC Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarships-Doctoral Program); the National Youth Thousand Talents Program of China; the National Research Foundation of Korea (the Global PhD Fellowship Grant: grants NRF-2015H1A2A1033752, 2015-R1D1A1A01056807, the Korea Research Fellowship Program: NRF-2015H1D3A1066561); the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) VICI award (grant 639.043. 513) and Spinoza Prize SPI 78-409; the New Scientific Frontiers with Precision Radio Interferometry Fellowship awarded by the South African Radio Astronomy Observatory (SARAO), which is a facility of the National Research Foundation (NRF), an agency of the Department of Science and Technology (DST) of South Africa; the Onsala Space Observatory (OSO) national infrastructure, for the provisioning of its facilities/observational support (OSO receives funding through the Swedish Research Council under grant 2017-00648) the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics (research at Perimeter Institute is supported by the Government of Canada through the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development and by the Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Research, Innovation and Science); the Russian Science Foundation (grant 17-12-01029); the Spanish Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (grants PGC2018-098915-B-C21, AYA2016-80889-P); the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award for the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (SEV-2017-0709); the Toray Science Foundation; the US Department of Energy (USDOE) through the Los Alamos National Laboratory (operated by Triad National Security, LLC, for the National Nuclear Security Administration of the USDOE (Contract 89233218CNA000001)); the Italian Ministero dell'Istruzione Universita e Ricerca through the grant Progetti Premiali 2012-iALMA (CUP C52I13000140001); the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 730562 RadioNet; ALMA North America Development Fund; the Academia Sinica; Chandra TM6-17006X. This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE), supported by NSF grant ACI-1548562, and CyVerse, supported by NSF grants DBI-0735191, DBI-1265383, and DBI-1743442. XSEDE Stampede2 resource at TACC was allocated through TG-AST170024 and TG-AST080026N. XSEDE JetStream resource at PTI and TACC was allocated through AST170028. The simulations were performed in part on the SuperMUC cluster at the LRZ in Garching, on the LOEWE cluster in CSC in Frankfurt, and on the HazelHen cluster at the HLRS in Stuttgart. ; Peer reviewed

With the failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive despite billions in armaments and months of training, the post mortems have begun.

They follow: The West was too slow in providing missiles and aircraft; Russia had too much time to prepare trenches and minefields; Ukraine needed more time to learn combined-arms tactics and employ Western armor effectively. Yet underlying all these excuses was a broader analytical failing that has yet to be acknowledged: flawed and often facile historical analogies led defense planners to underestimate Russia's resilience.

Even today, with the horrific costs of overconfidence plain to all and Ukraine at a crucial crossroads, the same flawed analysis of the Russian adversary persists.

Time and again, policymakers and commentators based their expectations of the war based on flawed historical parallels. One example is Russia's acceptance of mass casualties and use of "human wave" attacks where they lose three or more soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty.

Time and again — right up to the present — commanders and commentators cite this as a sign of severe Russian weakness. Whether discussed in the jargon of an "asymetrical attrition gradient," or simply referring to Russian soldiers as "cannon fodder," analysts frequently note that such profligacy with human lives is a legacy of ponderous Soviet and Tsarist armies.

But what they fail to note is that this tactic often brought victory. Tsarist armies took massive casualties in battles with Swedish, Persian and Turkish forces as they built the Russian empire. In defeating Napoleon, the Russians suffered as many casualties as the French despite the advantage of fighting on their home ground and their familiarity with the Russian winter.

Soviet Marshal Zhukov absorbed 860,000 casualties to the Germans' 200,000 at the Battle of Kursk in World War II. He also lost 1,500 tanks to the Germans' 500, yet Kursk is remembered as a great triumph that crushed Hitler's final hopes of victory. Can one imagine Germany celebrating its superior casualty ratio while being defeated by Stalin's hordes?

However shocking this tactic may be, it is a resource that Moscow has and Kyiv does not. Consider the battle for Bakhmut and the daily bulletins trumpeting Ukraine's success in killing thousands of Russians, right up to the moment that Bakhmut fell to Wagner Group mercenaries — weirdly reminiscent of the Pentagon's body-count bulletins in the Vietnam war.

At Bakhmut Ukraine lost the indispensable cream of its army to hordes of dispensable Russian convicts-turned-storm troopers in doomed defense of a strategically insignificant town that President Zelenskyy vowed would not fall. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now 43.

Losing Bakhmut hurt Ukrainian morale, but it is Russian morale that pundits say is shot. And they remind us that military disasters sparked Russian uprisings in the past — in 1905 after defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, or the debacle of WWI that led to the collapse of the Romanov dynasty in 1917.

Given their hardships and suffering, why wouldn't Russians do it again and overthrow Putin? Pundits often ignore that, after a decade of economic chaos and global humiliation in the 1990s, Putin is respected for restoring stability and national pride. Tsar Nicholas II, by contrast, was rather more like Boris Yeltsin — weak and out of touch, reliant on hated advisers, presiding over chaos.

It's also likely that, unlike a distant debacle with Japan or European carnage triggered by an Austro-Serbian dispute, many Russians believe in this war because they see Crimea and Donbas as historically and culturally Russian.

Whether it stems more from deep-seated imperial attitudes or a decade of anti-Western propaganda, Russians still back Putin and even take pride in standing up to the best NATO can throw at them. An effort to appreciate the views of Putin and his people is not being "pro Russian" even if we find those views wrong or repugnant.

On the contrary, such an approach is key to "thinking in time" with accurate historical analogies, and vital to avoiding the conceit of assuming that Russian soldiers or citizens will behave as we would.

On the eve of Ukraine's counteroffensive, U.S. Joint Chiefs chairman General Mark Milley declared that Russians "lack leadership, they lack will, their morale is poor, and their discipline is eroding." Of course, if your main historical lesson is that Russian armies crack under strain, then you look closely for signs of dissent and soon find a looming collapse.

This is how superficial history joins with confirmation bias to produce flawed analysis. Stymied by fierce Russian fighting, Ukrainians troops themselves told Milley he was wrong: "We expected less resistance. They are holding. They have leadership. It is not often you say that about the enemy."

As Kyiv's crisis deepens and recriminations spill out in public, commanders at all levels of the Ukrainian Armed Forces agree that they and their NATO advisers badly misjudged Russian tenacity: "This big counteroffensive was based on a simple calculation: when a Moskal [slur for ethnic Russian] sees a Bradley or a Leopard, he will just run away."

But what about taking the fight to Russia? Former CIA Director General David Petraeus predicted that Russian resolve could "crumble" in response to Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow. Such strikes "bring the war to the Russian people" and might convince Putin's regime that, like the USSR's Cold War quagmire in Afghanistan, Russia's current war in Ukraine is "ultimately unsustainable."

In fact the old Soviet elite did not see the Afghan war as unsustainable, nor were they much concerned about public opinion. It took both a generational transition and a bold new leader who prioritized improving ties with the West — Mikhail Gorbachev — to finally manage an exit.

The point is not that war isn't costly. The Afghan war was, and the Ukraine war is even more so. The point is that accepting defeat in a major war that was justified as a vital national interest is unlikely until there is both a new leader and turnover in the ruling elite.

As for "bringing war to the Russian people" by bombing Moscow, when did that ever work? NATO brought the Kosovo War to the Serbian people in 1999 by bombing Belgrade, and it only rallied them to the side of dictator Slobodan Milošević; 25 years later, Serbs remain strongly pro-Russian and anti-NATO. And when Chechen rebels bombed Moscow and other Russian cities in the early 2000s, it only rallied Russians around Putin and helped justify his increasingly authoritarian rule.
These aren't mere historical quibbles, but illustrations of flawed analogies that framed both strategic expectations and tactical decisions. And they have cost dearly, in both Ukrainian lives and now Western support. Confidence in Washington-Brussels elites falls even as officials still claim that Ukraine is winning and Putin "cannot outlast" the West.

In fact, as NATO empties its warehouses of equipment and misses deadlines for producing new munitions, it's hard to conclude otherwise unless one is trapped in another oversimplified WWII analogy: that of America as the "arsenal of democracy."

Many have contrasted America's innovative private arms producers with Russia's technology-starved state factories, predicting that Moscow would soon exhaust its munitions. Instead, Russia has consistently belied the "all brawn and no brains" narrative, not only outproducing the West in tanks, artillery and shells but defying sanctions to develop new precision-guided bombs, drones and missiles. Perhaps those discounting Russian ingenuity forgot the Katyusha multiple-rocket launcher, a legendary artillery weapon that both the Germans and Americans copied in WWII.
With a looming crisis in efforts to keep Kyiv supplied with munitions, it is useful to look closer at American arms production in WWII, when the "arsenal of democracy" was in certain respects more like Putin's economy than Biden's. But today Washington faces a complex set of institutional obstacles: "least-cost production models," contractor aversion to stockpiling, export restrictions, and environmental regulations the likes of which do not trouble Putin. A final lesson from WWII's "armaments race" is a caution against technological hubris such as that seen in today's gushing about the superiority of Western Leopard or Abrams tanks over the Russian T-72 and T-80. Germany's Tiger tank was clearly superior to the Soviet T-34 in WWII, but the latter was cheap, reliable, and easy to produce in numbers; at Kursk, Soviet tanks outnumbered German ones by 2:1. So as NATO planners and media pundits take up the "cannon fodder" refrain again with reference to the heavy losses Russians are taking as they advance in the battle for Avdiivka, these planners and pundits would do well to consider a quip famously attributed to Soviet wartime leader Josef Stalin: "Quantity has a quality all its own."