Suchergebnisse

The Washington Post reported recently that U.S. intelligence officials do not believe the Ukrainian military will achieve a key goal set out at the launch of its counteroffensive against Russian occupying forces back in June — reaching the southeastern city of Melitipol and cutting off Russia's access to Crimea by land.While the counteroffensive has achieved some recent successes — including piercing Moscow's first line of multi-echeloned defensive positions and taking a key village — the Wall Street Journal reported last week that "there is no sign of a collapse in Russian lines."In fact, most recent mainstream reporting on the status of the offensive has been similarly dour, which might come as a surprise to anyone paying attention to predictions from the American pundit class shortly before the Ukrainian counteroffensive began.Despite reports at the time quoting U.S. intelligence predicting that the upcoming Ukrainian offensive would result only in "modest territorial gains," and fall "well short" of Kyiv's goals, many lawmakers, experts, and pundits had a much more confident take. In fact, several senior officials openly suggested that the Ukrainian operations would be a rousing success, while others said it would lead to an all-out victory, expelling the Russians out of occupied Ukraine and perhaps even Crimea. "I expect major gains in the coming days and weeks," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) — one of Ukraine's most hyperbolic supporters — during a May 28 interview on Fox News. "I think they can expel Russia from Ukraine."The Russians are "in for a rude awakening" he said a couple days later. "In the coming days, you're going to see a pretty impressive display of power by the Ukrainians." Indeed, Graham's rosy assessments were just the tip of the overly optimistic grandstanding iceberg from that time. Here's a brief — albeit not comprehensive — sample of what we heard about the upcoming counteroffensive last spring from not just expert pundits, but also top U.S. officials, despite their presumed knowledge of more sober U.S. intelligence predictions:Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin: "I think Ukraine will have a very good chance of success." [03/28/23]National security adviser Jake Sullivan: "We believe that the Ukrainians will meet with success in this counteroffensive." [06/04/23]NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: "I'm confident that when Ukraine decides to launch new operations to liberate more land, Ukraine will be successful." [4/21/23]Former CIA Director, Gen. David Petraeus (ret.): "I personally think that this is going to be really quite successful. .. And [the Russians] are going to have to withdraw under pressure of this Ukrainian offensive, the most difficult possible tactical maneuver, and I don't think they're going to do well at that." [05/23/23] "I think that this counteroffensive is going to be very impressive." [06/03/23]Retired U.S. Army Gen. Ben Hodges: "I actually expect, however, that [the Ukrainians] will be quite successful." [05/12/23]Historian Edward Luttwak: "If Kyiv and the West are looking for the most plausible path to victory, this is it." [05/11/23]Atlantic Council non-resident fellow Richard Hooker: "As we are often told, no plan survives contact with the enemy. There will likely be the occasional tactical miscue or operational hiccup during the coming counteroffensive, but a careful assessment suggests the odds are heavily in favor of Ukraine." [05/23/23]Former Chief of the British General Staff, General Richard Dannatt: "[A]fter Kyiv's successful counteroffensive, Vladimir Putin 'may be swept out of the Kremlin.'" [03/28/23]Paul Massaro, senior policy adviser, the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe: "Full Ukrainian victory is coming. Sooner than you think." [06/12/23]It's hard to square these hopeful, borderline fanciful analyses with what we knew at that time. In fact, there were plenty of other experts offering more balanced forecasts of what was to come with Ukraine's counteroffensive. For example, the Quincy Institute's George Beebe wrote back in April that available evidence at that time "paint[s] a much bleaker picture of Kyiv's prospects in the war than the White House has acknowledged." He added that that evidence depicts "manning and training levels for Ukraine's much anticipated counter-offensive that inspire little confidence it will produce a decisive breakthrough against reinforced Russian defenses." Good policy requires good information, particularly when it comes to war and peace. Unfortunately, the commentariat in U.S. media and beyond hasn't been providing very informed analysis when it comes to the war in Ukraine.Analysts should separate what they might want to happen with what — from a more objective point of view — is more likely to actually happen. Too often, experts are offering rosy predictions of Ukrainian military operations where most available evidence suggests otherwise. And as these unfounded optimistic predictions pile up, so too does American support both among the public and policymakers to pour more weapons and money into — what should look like to anyone taking a sober look at realities on the ground — a protracted stalemate or perhaps worse. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mike Milley was shouted down last November when he suggested that perhaps Ukraine and its Western allies had a decent window of opportunity to negotiate an end to the war. While he has said more recently that it's too early to assess whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been a success (albeit without defining success), he also maintained that kicking all Russian forces out of Ukraine via solely military means "is going to be very, very difficult and challenging.""A different way of going at it is through negotiations," he said last week. "And maybe that'll happen too."But if more objective assessments of the war in Ukraine continue to be drowned out by this same kind of emotion-based, wishful-thinking commentary and analysis, maybe it won't.

In general terms, we know that the Amazon is being burned and that thousands of species have died during the process. We know that this is happening throughout Latin America, and we know that governments do very little to stop this deforestation. What we ignore is that there are Government Policies which cover up such deforestation with "incendiary" speeches. A discourse analysis on the current government of Jair Bolsonaro who, through official media such as NY Times, BBC, and O Globo among others, has recognized Brazilian autonomy in its decisions on the "lung of the world", the Amazon, will be conducted to discuss this situation. The discussion of the previous paragraph between national sovereignty and the world heritage site is not new. It is found in the international agreements of biological diversity, climate change, forest protection, and the fight against desertification signed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. This research will allow verifying how the combination of constitutional amendments approved in the Congress of Brazil in the last three years, specifically during the governments of Temer and Bolsonaro, mixed with a presidential political discourse held during these years, have allowed miners, farmers, cattle breeders and private entrepreneurs to burn the Amazon, waiting to see what happens . To carry out the discourse analysis, we will start from a historical perspective, verifying government policies regarding the Amazon in the last presidential periods (Lula, Rousseff, Temer, Bolsonaro) to conclude that, although in accordance with the scientific data existing in the international NGOs, progress has been made in the conservation of the Amazon rainforest. However, the Amazon is on fire today. What are the political legal decisions, and even the constitutional amendments that have been made in recent years to allow the economic use of the Brazilian Amazon? How does President Bolsonaro's government speech relate to the deforestation of the Amazon? What is the contribution that scientists are making today in the political field for the defense of the Brazilian Amazon? The answers to these questions will be found in this text. ; En general, conocemos que el Amazonas está siendo incendiado y que mueren miles de especies durante el proceso, sabemos que sucede en toda América Latina, y sabemos que los gobiernos hacen poco por detener esta deforestación. Lo que ignoramos, es que existen Políticas de Gobierno, que cohonestan dicha deforestación con discursos "incendiarios"; para discutir esta situación, realizaremos un análisis de este discurso en el actual gobierno de Jair Bolsonaro; quien, a través de medios oficiales tales como NY Times, BBC, O Globo, entre otros, ha reconocido la autonomía brasilera en sus decisiones sobre el "pulmón del mundo": El Amazonas. La discusión del párrafo anterior, entre la soberanía nacional versus patrimonio común de la humanidad, no es nueva, se encuentra en los convenios internacionales de diversidad biológica, cambio climático, protección de bosques, y lucha contra la desertificación, firmados en Rio de Janeiro en 1992. En esta investigación verificaremos como, la mezcla de enmiendas constitucionales aprobadas en el Congreso de Brasil en los últimos tres años, específicamente en los gobiernos de Temer y Bolsonaro, mezcladas con un discurso político presidencial sostenido en este tiempo, han permitido que: mineros, agricultores, ganaderos y empresarios privados, hayan incendiado el Amazonas, esperando a ver qué pasa… Para realizar un análisis de discurso partiremos de una perspectiva histórica, verificando las políticas de gobierno frente al Amazonas en los últimos periodos presidenciales, (Lula, Rousseff, Temer, Bolsonaro) para concluir que, aunque conforme con los datos científicos existentes en las ONG´s internacionales, se había avanzado en la conservación de la selva amazónica; sin embargo, hoy el Amazonas se encuentra en llamas. ¿Cuáles son las decisiones jurídico políticas, e incluso, las enmiendas constitucionales que se han realizado en los últimos años, para permitir el aprovechamiento económico del amazonas brasilero? ¿De qué manera el discurso de gobierno del presidente Bolsonaro se relaciona con la deforestación del Amazonas? ¿Cuál es el aporte que los científicos están realizando hoy, en el campo político para la defensa del Amazonas brasilero? Son las respuestas que encontraremos a continuación. ; Em geral, sabemos que a Amazônia está sendo queimada e que milhares de espécies morrem durante o processo, sabemos que isso acontece em toda a América Latina e sabemos que os governos fazem pouco para impedir esse desmatamento. O que ignoramos é que existem políticas do governo que corroboram esse desmatamento com discursos "incendiários"; Para discutir essa situação, faremos uma análise desse discurso no atual governo de Jair Bolsonaro; quem, através da mídia oficial como o NY Times, BBC, O Globo, entre outros, reconheceu a autonomia brasileira em suas decisões sobre o "pulmão do mundo": a Amazônia. A discussão do parágrafo anterior, entre soberania nacional versus patrimônio comum da humanidade, não é nova, encontra-se nas convenções internacionais de diversidade biológica, mudança climática, proteção florestal e combate à desertificação, assinada no Rio de Janeiro em 1992. Nesta investigação, verificaremos como, a mistura de emendas constitucionais aprovadas no Congresso do Brasil nos últimos três anos, especificamente nos governos de Temer e Bolsonaro, misturada com um discurso político presidencial realizado na época, permitiu: mineiros, agricultores , agricultores e empresários privados, queimaram a Amazônia, esperando para ver o que acontece . Para realizar uma análise do discurso, partimos de uma perspectiva histórica, verificando as políticas governamentais contra a Amazônia nos últimos períodos presidenciais (Lula, Dilma, Temer, Bolsonaro) para concluir que, embora de acordo com os dados científicos existentes nas ONGs. s internacional, houve progresso na conservação da floresta amazônica; No entanto, hoje a Amazônia está pegando fogo. Quais são as decisões políticas legais, e até as emendas constitucionais que foram feitas nos últimos anos, para permitir o uso econômico da Amazônia brasileira? Como o discurso do governo Bolsonaro se relaciona com o desmatamento da Amazônia? Qual a contribuição dos cientistas hoje, no campo político de defesa da Amazônia brasileira? São as respostas que encontraremos a seguir.

The research carried out concerned the relationships between the development of technologies and the history of Matera's cultural landscape. Key elements are the concepts of " cultural landscape " understood as a space in continuous construction that changes with the changing of the individual, collective, social and cultural relationships of the inhabitants of the territory, of "cultural inhabitant", that is a citizen producing culture more than a user, and vision of " future as an open place " in the sense of maximum usability and sharing of all human, material and immaterial productions through the use of technologies. In the light of the investigation it was found that Matera, a territory with a predominantly agricultural vocation, historically the site of complex social relations, has created a traditional rural society in which the concept of neighborhood as well as a spatial connotation also had the symbolic connotation of sharing knowledge and practices, relationships, but most of the inclusivity and sustainability. The use of 5G technology, of which Matera is the site of experimentation, is generating important cultural transformations; what in the past was in Matera the neighborhood community, now becomes a virtual community, where the sharing of knowledge and practices, beliefs and values, including the use and management of cultural heritage, takes place through the network with the use of applications that promote accessibility and sustainability. For future scenarios it can be assumed, according to this historical anthropological forecast, that in technology, with its extreme pervasiveness, will facilitate an even easier access to historic sites and pa cultural heritage, in harmony with the preservation of cultural heritage and to encourage the dissemination of cultural content for one of their own wider fruition. Matera, as well as Basilicata and many Mediterranean areas has got a wide agricultural landscape which is deeply linked to its culture and inhabitants. So the focus of this research is also the employment of digital technologies for sustainable agriculture. In agricultural field it is necessary to link the increasing of production to sustainability and environmental protection policies – according to the protection of the natural heritage by reducing fertilizers, pesticides, fuel, as well as protecting forest resources from further tillage - without forgetting the dangerous phenomenon of depopulation of rural areas and management criticalities resulting from sudden climate change. The strong spatial and temporal variability that characterizes any agro-ecosystem has determined the need to identify new tools and strategies to achieve an efficient and effective management of agricultural lands. To do this it is necessary to have techniques and technologies capable of detecting the lack of homogeneity and, later, of applying the cultural inputs within the plot in a variable way. The innovations connected to the world of agriculture so can be traced back to 3 fundamental themes • Information collection and management • Analysis of information in a decision-making perspective • Operations automation All of these fields can be better developed thanks to the most important technological trend of the moment, the 5G systems. They are born from the possibility of connecting objects and devices, even the most "unthinkable" ones. From sensors to monitor crop characteristics, to automatic guides, to drones useful for different purposes, from defense to land mapping. With the technological endowment, available nowadays, the Internet of Things (IoT) realizes the connection between the physical objects, sensors and actuators and the connecting roads represented by the Internet. So according to the continuous technological evolution, associated to the new EU and national regulations it has been developed a new management and business system: Precision Agriculture. In the most modern conformations, in perfect correspondence with the various emerging needs, the AdP is closely linked to geo-referencing systems, a process that allows you to permanently associate geographic coordinates with geometric-spatial information of various kinds and to new technologies as GIS, remote sensing and GPS. Even modern agricultural machines are equipped with digital technology and are able to recognize the environment in which they operate. Thanks to the monitoring by means of proximal and remote sensors, satellites, sensors on the machines, we are able to equip ourselves with software tools for storing geolocalized and vectored data, which allow us to have a spatial and punctual knowledge of the situation in the field. The Variable rateo, for exemple, based on maps and sensors can manage the variability generated by the environment in which the cultivation takes place applying chemical, mechanical and biological inputs in a strategic and diversified way combined to different methodologies with variable distribution (or variable rate). Today the use of drones (UAVS) is also gaining more and more space and importance in the field of agriculture at all stages of production. The drone is therefore a device capable of mechanizing every stage of cultivation, eliminating the cost of human error and helping to maximize earnings and return on investment. GIS technology is also a fundamental technology useful to characterize the specific environment of development of the plant and its vegetative state and it is the common denominator of other components related to geospatial technologies, such as remote sensing and GPS. The GIS Technologies give us the opportunity to manage a considerable amount of data related to the territory by placing them in relation to each other in order to allow to detect phenomena that otherwise could not be highlighted. WebGIS for exemple, is a platform that is also characterized by the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) but whose functionalities are based on network technologies (WEB/Internet). The Environment for Visualizing Images (ENVI) software is used to process and analyze hyperspectral and/or infrared geospatial images. It is used for remote sensing and for analyzing images. ENVI brings together a series of scientific algorithms for image processing, many of which are contained in an automated wizard-based approach that guide users through complex tasks. The use of different spectral acquisition bands can be employed to identify more the types of soil or in general the substance or chemical element of interest or to detect their characteristic spectral signature discriminating it from the others.

Мета. Метою роботи є аналіз методів оцінки ризиків несанкціонованого втручання в роботу залізничного транспорту України в умовах військового конфлікту в її східних регіонах. Методика. Дослідження виконані з використанням методів ризик-менеджменту та математичної статистики. Результати. У статті проведено аналіз світових підходів до забезпечення захисту критичної інфраструктури та транспортної безпеки. У роботі визначено, що залізниця є об'єктом критичної інфраструктури, який на ряду із забезпеченням потреб економіки і населення у перевезеннях відіграє важливу роль в оборонній діяльності держави. У результаті аналізу встановлено, що залізничний транспорт в останні роки став однією з основних цілей для вчинення актів тероризму з великою кількістю жертв та значними матеріальними збитками. З початком військового конфлікту у Донецькій та Луганській областях України вітчизняні залізниці зазнали 38 терористичних атак; при цьому найрозповсюдженішим методом вчинення терористичного акту був підрив об'єктів інфраструктури. Характер вказаних атак в Україні відрізняється від терористичних актів на залізницях світу: в більшості випадків теракти в Україні були спрямовані не на пасажирів, а проводились з метою руйнації залізничної інфраструктури та припинення забезпечення армії в зоні військового конфлікту. Підвищення рівня захищеності залізниць у вказаних умовах можливе за рахунок впровадження системи управління ризиками. З цією метою в статті визначені основні загрози в роботі залізниць та проведено аналіз вітчизняної нормативно-правової бази в сфері протидії втручанню в роботу транспорту. В результаті чого встановлено, що існуючі документи не розкривають методологію запобігання терористичним проявам на транспорті. У цьому зв'язку в роботі запропоновано загальну процедуру ризик-менеджменту в системі управління залізницями. Наукова новизна. В результаті виконаних досліджень визначено можливі шляхи підвищення безпеки функціонування залізничного транспорту України в умовах військового конфлікту в її східних регіонах. Практична значимість. Результати виконаних досліджень можуть бути використані при розробці методології ризик-менеджменту та засобів протидії несанкціонованим втручанням в роботу залізничного транспорту України. ; Цель. Целью работы является анализ методов оценки рисков несанкционированного вмешательства в работу железнодорожного транспорта Украины в условиях военного конфликта в ее восточных регионах. Методика. Исследования выполнены с использованием методов риск-менеджмента и математической статистики. Результаты. В статье проведен анализ мировых подходов к обеспечению защиты критической инфраструктуры и транспортной безопасности. В работе определено, что железная дорога является объектом критической инфраструктуры, которая на ряду с обеспечением потребностей экономики и населения в перевозках играет важную роль в оборонной деятельности государства. В результате анализа установлено, что железнодорожный транспорт в последние годы стал одной из основных целей для совершения актов терроризма с большим количеством жертв и значительным материальным ущербом. С начала военного конфликта в Донецкой и Луганской областях железные дороги Украины претерпели 38 террористических атак; при этом самым распространенным методом совершения террористического акта был подрыв объектов инфраструктуры. Характер указанных атак в Украине отличается от террористических актов на железных дорогах мира: в большинстве случаев теракты в Украине были направлены не на пассажиров, а проводились с целью разрушения железнодорожной инфраструктуры и прекращения обеспечения армии в зоне военного конфликта. Повышение уровня защищенности железных дорог в указанных условиях возможно за счет внедрения системы управления рисками. С этой целью в статье определены основные угрозы в работе железных дорог и проведен анализ отечественной нормативно-правовой базы в сфере противодействия вмешательству в работу транспорта. В результате этого установлено, что существующие документы не раскрывают методологии предотвращения террористических проявлений на транспорте. В этой связи в работе предложена общая процедура риск-менеджмента в системе управления железными дорогами. Научная новизна. В результате выполненных исследований определены возможные пути повышения безопасности функционирования железнодорожного транспорта Украины в условиях военного конфликта в ее восточных регионах. Практическая значимость. Результаты выполненных исследований могут быть использованы при разработке методологии риск-менеджмента и средств противодействия несанкционированным вмешательствам в работу железнодорожного транспорта Украины. ; Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze the methods for assessing the risks of unauthorized intervention in the railway transport functioning of Ukraine in the context of the military conflict in its eastern regions. Methodology. The studies were performed using risk management methods and mathematical statistics. Results. The article analyzes the global approaches to ensuring the protection of critical infrastructure and transport security. It is determined that the railway is an object of critical infrastructure, which, along with meeting the needs of the economy and the population in transportation, plays an important role in the defense activities of the state. As a result of the analysis, it has been established that rail transport in recent years has become one of the main targets for the commission of acts of terrorism with a large number of victims and significant material damage. Since the beginning of the military conflict in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the Ukrainian railways suffered 38 terrorist attacks; at the same time, the most common method of committing a terrorist act was the infrastructure facilities blowing up. The nature of these attacks in Ukraine differs from terrorist acts on the railways of the world: in most cases, the attacks in Ukraine were not aimed at passengers, but were carried out in order to destroy the railway infrastructure and stop the army supplying in the area of military conflict. Increasing the level of protection of railways under these conditions is possible due to the introduction of a risk management system. To do this, the article identifies the main threats to the operation of railways and analyzes the national regulatory framework in the area of counteraction to unauthorized intervention in the transport functioning. As a result, it has been established that the existing documents do not disclose methodologies for the prevention of terrorist acts in transport. In this regard, a general procedure of risk management in the railways management system was proposed. Scientific novelty. As a result of the research performed, possible ways to improve the safety of the functioning of Ukraine's railway transport in a military conflict in its eastern regions were identified. Practical significance. The results of the research can be used in developing the methodology of risk management and means of counteracting unauthorized interventions in the work of the railway transport of Ukraine.

Мета. Метою роботи є аналіз методів оцінки ризиків несанкціонованого втручання в роботу залізничного транспорту України в умовах військового конфлікту в її східних регіонах. Методика. Дослідження виконані з використанням методів ризик-менеджменту та математичної статистики. Результати. У статті проведено аналіз світових підходів до забезпечення захисту критичної інфраструктури та транспортної безпеки. У роботі визначено, що залізниця є об'єктом критичної інфраструктури, який на ряду із забезпеченням потреб економіки і населення у перевезеннях відіграє важливу роль в оборонній діяльності держави. У результаті аналізу встановлено, що залізничний транспорт в останні роки став однією з основних цілей для вчинення актів тероризму з великою кількістю жертв та значними матеріальними збитками. З початком військового конфлікту у Донецькій та Луганській областях України вітчизняні залізниці зазнали 38 терористичних атак; при цьому найрозповсюдженішим методом вчинення терористичного акту був підрив об'єктів інфраструктури. Характер вказаних атак в Україні відрізняється від терористичних актів на залізницях світу: в більшості випадків теракти в Україні були спрямовані не на пасажирів, а проводились з метою руйнації залізничної інфраструктури та припинення забезпечення армії в зоні військового конфлікту. Підвищення рівня захищеності залізниць у вказаних умовах можливе за рахунок впровадження системи управління ризиками. З цією метою в статті визначені основні загрози в роботі залізниць та проведено аналіз вітчизняної нормативно-правової бази в сфері протидії втручанню в роботу транспорту. В результаті чого встановлено, що існуючі документи не розкривають методологію запобігання терористичним проявам на транспорті. У цьому зв'язку в роботі запропоновано загальну процедуру ризик-менеджменту в системі управління залізницями. Наукова новизна. В результаті виконаних досліджень визначено можливі шляхи підвищення безпеки функціонування залізничного транспорту України в умовах військового конфлікту в її східних регіонах. Практична значимість. Результати виконаних досліджень можуть бути використані при розробці методології ризик-менеджменту та засобів протидії несанкціонованим втручанням в роботу залізничного транспорту України. ; Цель. Целью работы является анализ методов оценки рисков несанкционированного вмешательства в работу железнодорожного транспорта Украины в условиях военного конфликта в ее восточных регионах. Методика. Исследования выполнены с использованием методов риск-менеджмента и математической статистики. Результаты. В статье проведен анализ мировых подходов к обеспечению защиты критической инфраструктуры и транспортной безопасности. В работе определено, что железная дорога является объектом критической инфраструктуры, которая на ряду с обеспечением потребностей экономики и населения в перевозках играет важную роль в оборонной деятельности государства. В результате анализа установлено, что железнодорожный транспорт в последние годы стал одной из основных целей для совершения актов терроризма с большим количеством жертв и значительным материальным ущербом. С начала военного конфликта в Донецкой и Луганской областях железные дороги Украины претерпели 38 террористических атак; при этом самым распространенным методом совершения террористического акта был подрыв объектов инфраструктуры. Характер указанных атак в Украине отличается от террористических актов на железных дорогах мира: в большинстве случаев теракты в Украине были направлены не на пассажиров, а проводились с целью разрушения железнодорожной инфраструктуры и прекращения обеспечения армии в зоне военного конфликта. Повышение уровня защищенности железных дорог в указанных условиях возможно за счет внедрения системы управления рисками. С этой целью в статье определены основные угрозы в работе железных дорог и проведен анализ отечественной нормативно-правовой базы в сфере противодействия вмешательству в работу транспорта. В результате этого установлено, что существующие документы не раскрывают методологии предотвращения террористических проявлений на транспорте. В этой связи в работе предложена общая процедура риск-менеджмента в системе управления железными дорогами. Научная новизна. В результате выполненных исследований определены возможные пути повышения безопасности функционирования железнодорожного транспорта Украины в условиях военного конфликта в ее восточных регионах. Практическая значимость. Результаты выполненных исследований могут быть использованы при разработке методологии риск-менеджмента и средств противодействия несанкционированным вмешательствам в работу железнодорожного транспорта Украины. ; Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze the methods for assessing the risks of unauthorized intervention in the railway transport functioning of Ukraine in the context of the military conflict in its eastern regions. Methodology. The studies were performed using risk management methods and mathematical statistics. Results. The article analyzes the global approaches to ensuring the protection of critical infrastructure and transport security. It is determined that the railway is an object of critical infrastructure, which, along with meeting the needs of the economy and the population in transportation, plays an important role in the defense activities of the state. As a result of the analysis, it has been established that rail transport in recent years has become one of the main targets for the commission of acts of terrorism with a large number of victims and significant material damage. Since the beginning of the military conflict in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the Ukrainian railways suffered 38 terrorist attacks; at the same time, the most common method of committing a terrorist act was the infrastructure facilities blowing up. The nature of these attacks in Ukraine differs from terrorist acts on the railways of the world: in most cases, the attacks in Ukraine were not aimed at passengers, but were carried out in order to destroy the railway infrastructure and stop the army supplying in the area of military conflict. Increasing the level of protection of railways under these conditions is possible due to the introduction of a risk management system. To do this, the article identifies the main threats to the operation of railways and analyzes the national regulatory framework in the area of counteraction to unauthorized intervention in the transport functioning. As a result, it has been established that the existing documents do not disclose methodologies for the prevention of terrorist acts in transport. In this regard, a general procedure of risk management in the railways management system was proposed. Scientific novelty. As a result of the research performed, possible ways to improve the safety of the functioning of Ukraine's railway transport in a military conflict in its eastern regions were identified. Practical significance. The results of the research can be used in developing the methodology of risk management and means of counteracting unauthorized interventions in the work of the railway transport of Ukraine.

Como lamentablemente subrayan los hechos, una de las limitaciones reales –llamativamente incomprensibles en la sociedad del siglo XX– al ejercicio de la libertad de expresión es la superprotección penal sobre la figura del Rey y su familia, que viene a reforzar esa especie de componenda o pacto tácito, gracias al cual, aquí se airean todos los trapos sucios y extravagancias de las familias reinantes de Europa y se silencian las de la Casa de Borbón. La figura del jefe del Estado español disfruta, por parte de la mayoría los medios de comunicación de masas, de un tratamiento privilegiado, con respecto a otros monarcas constitucionales de Europa, a partir de la propia inmunidad que le otorga la Constitución por él proclamada –que no jurada–, y que se perfecciona por la inusual protección que suponen los artículos del 490 y 491 Código Penal, ya que sustraen al monarca de toda crítica aguda, resguardo que se hace extensivo a sus antepasados y sucesores. La redacción de estos preceptos, cuya aplicación real a los antepasados se considera inviable, ha dado lugar a la valoración negativa de la más rigurosa investigación histórica que reputa de absurdas tales disposiciones. En la España del siglo XXI, el secuestro por orden judicial de la Audiencia Nacional (la misma que entiende de los delitos de terrorismo) de la revista de humor española El Jueves, en julio de 2007, y la posterior acusación de injurias a la Corona, por parte de la fiscalía, por una portada en la que aparecían el príncipe de Asturias, Felipe de Borbón, haciendo el amor con su esposa, la periodista divorciada Letizia Ortiz, no solamente provocó justamente la reacción contraria a la esperada. La viñeta era una crítica cómica al anuncio del presidente Zapatero de que premiará a las familias por cada hijo nuevo nacido, y el joven Borbón se ponía a la obra, aludiendo a que éste es su único trabajo. Finalmente, la fiscalía solicitó una multa 10 meses, equivalente a 12 euros diarios a sus autores, hasta alcanzar los 3.600. La decisión de la Audiencia Nacional de abrir juicio oral por estos hechos fue criticada por la propios Jueces para la Democracia, quienes insisten que la libertad de expresión debe prevalecer sobre el derecho al honor, especialmente de los personajes públicos. Este hecho puso además en evidencia la pervivencia del secuestro judicial de publicaciones, inútil medida, ya que la viñeta circuló rápidamente por Internet, todos los medios de comunicación del mundo se hicieron eco del suceso, e incluso, la revista pasó a ser objeto de coleccionismo, cotizándose hasta 1.500 euros. El incidente se convirtió en noticia mundial con dos efectos inmediatos: la injustificable represión de la libertad de expresión en España con respecto a la familia real y, algo peor para ésta, que se abriera un debate sobre la continuidad de la monarquía misma. ; As lamentably they emphasize the facts, one of the real limitations –showy incomprehensible in the society of century XX– to the exercise of the freedom of expression it is the penal protection on the figure of the King and its family, and that comes to reinforce that species of tacit pact, thanks to which, all the dirty rags and extravagances of the ruling families of Europe air here and silence those of the House of Borbón. The figure of the head of the Spanish State enjoys, on the part of the majority the mass media of masses, of a privileged treatment, with respect to other constitutional monarchs of Europe, from the own immunity that to him the Constitution by him proclaimed –that not sworn grants–, and who perfects itself by the unusual protection which they suppose 491 articles of 490 and Penal Code, since they remove the monarch of all acute critic, defense that becomes to its ancestors and successors extensive. The writing of these rules, whose real application to the ancestors is considered nonviable, has given rise to the negative valuation of the most rigorous historical investigation than it reputes of absurd such dispositions. In the Spain of century XXI, the kidnapping by judicial order of the National Hearing (the same one which it understands of the terrorism crimes) of the Spanish satirist magazine Thursday, in 2007 July, and the later accusation of insults to Corona, on the part of the office of the public prosecutor, by a cover in which they appeared the prince of Asturias, Felipe de Borbón, doing the love with its wife, divorced journalist Letizia Ortiz, not only caused exactly the enemy counterattack to the awaited one. The drawing one was a humorous critic to the announcement of president Zapatero of which it will award to the families by each born new son, and the Borbón young person put itself to the work, alluding to that this one is its only work. Finally, the office of the public prosecutor asked for a fine of 12 daily euros to its authors, until reaching the 3.600. Of generalized way, the continuity of the kidnapping judicial of publications, useless measurement, since the drawing circulated quickly around Internet, all mass media of the world has been put in evidence became echo of the event, and even, the magazine passed to be collecting object, quoting up to 1,500 euros. The incident became the world–wide news with two immediate effects: the unjustifiable repression of the freedom of expression in Spain with respect to the real family and, something worse for this one, than opened a debate on the continuity of the same monarchy. As far as the penal assumption that it justifies this new attack to the freedom of expression seems sustainable little, based on the repeated jurisprudence, lacks the essential element of the illicit one that is tried to persecute: Where is in spirit of to offend in the opportune joke of the sketchers of Thursday?

In the article the author makes main emphasis on an attempt to reconstruct in details the character and attitudes of the power that directly influenced on the activity of Orthodox religious fund. A lot of factors depended on this, one of which and the most important one was the activity of the entire Orthodox Church in Bukovina. The transformations in the structure of the Orthodox Church in Bukovina, which began as a result of the transition the region from the Austrian Empire under the royal patronage of Romania, were examined. First of all the King in Bukovina was submitted by Minister-Delegates that represented his interests there. Although, as the historical facts showed, they could change some laws that were under Romanian law. In the research is highlighted that fund was guided in his management by "Spiritual rules" of April 29, 1786 with all amendments and supplements in the Austro -Hungarian Empire. But under the leadership of Minister Iank Flondor, there have been changes in the administration of the fund. He considered it appropriate to transfer the fund management to bishop of Bukovina, which was done in the decree of 23 January 1919. The Metropolitan of those times, Vladimir de Reptu, was notified by letter of April 2, 1919. Such decision, in the author's opinion, was the most correct, because all money of the Orthodox fund were expropriated in churches and monasteries. Minister apparently relied on the sad experience of the Austrian government intervention in the management of the fund, which has received a loan from the fund, that was used for military operations. Such policy of minister-delegate with his seat in Chernivtsi was not approved by another minister in the government of Bukovina – Ion Nistor. Being open Ukrainophobe, he perceived all actions in favor of the Orthodox Ukrainian people as extraneous. Under his pressure I. Flondor was forced to resign, while his place was taken by I. Nistor. I. Nistor considered the authorization of religious fund management to the Metropolitan of Bukovina was "illegal, hasty and ill-advised". Therefore, in the 26th of April 1919 the Minister introduced the Metropolitan the letter where the patron of fund was called the King of Romania Ferdynant and the management of fund that was passed to the bishop. The changes in this regard were on the basis of the decree-law, not just a simple letter of local government to the Metropolitan. That's why fund continued to follow the Austrian regulations. Events that occurred further in Bukovina under Romanian left much to be desired. At the Church Congress, held in 3-25th of October, 1921, it was renamed the Orthodox Church from the "Greek-East" to "Orthodox-Romanian", also were changed the name "Greco- Eastern religious Fund of Bucovina" to "Orthodox-Romanian religious fund". As a result of these changes Ukrainian were denied the right to use the lands of the fund and profess the avital Orthodox faith because they didn't have their church any more. The aim of these measures was the assimilation of the Ukrainian population in Bukovina. These decisions were challenged in the Congress by Dr. E. Kozak, who justly noted the equal rights for the Orthodox Church as Ukrainian, so Romanian. The scientist proposed to change its name to "Ukrainian-Romanian" or to leave as it was. In defense of fund Dr. Simon Smereka had stood, who said that when the fund renamed, Ukrainian would be deprived of the right to use it. Continued their policy of Romanization, they were dismissed from the university. The politics of Romanian Crown facilitated the process of liquidation fund, issuing in 1921 a law on agrarian reform, all agricultural lands would pass in the property to the peasants. In total, the fund has been selected 115 estates, of which 51 had possession of up to 100 hectares, and 64 – more than 100 hectares. The activity of the fund in the postwar period brought no benefit to Orthodox Ukrainian population and all nationalities that had lived in Bukovina. A complete assimilation of all spheres of life by Romanian authorities led to the cultural and spiritual decline. New administrators has led to a severe crisis, which had a disastrous effect on the Orthodox Church and, in particular, on the fund. With no restrictions on the use of forests, that remained virtually the only wealth of fund, has led to a drop in income and non-payment of salaries and pensions of the clergy. Romanian period made Ukrainians the national hostages and threw the clergy under the influence of totalitarian political regime. Unlike the Austrian administration, which has been characterized by a German order, seriousness and discipline, the Romanian administration of interwar period was frivolous. The Church Fund to the collapse of the Austro - Hungarian functioned and was controlled by the Spiritual Regulation, unchangable since 1786, and the new government entrusted the management to the two diametrically opposed entities, Bukovina Metropolis and the Ministry of Agriculture in Bucharest, crushing all kinds of conflicting regulations and church rights for the wealth until the Charter fund in 1925. Although during the attempt to amend in the diocesan fund management, Romanians suffered from inefficiency of theirs laws and again returned to the "Spiritual rules". ; В статье исследуются отношения "новой" румынской власти с церковью и методы управления Православным религиозным фондом до национализации земель Фонда сельскохозяйственного назначения и принятия регламента 1925 г. Автор приводит примеры несогласованных действий королевской диктатуры на местах, которые в дальнейшем привели к упадку Фонда. Исследователь освещает ход оккупации Буковины и плановый процесс ассимиляции населения. Представлены события, отражающие настроения жителей Буковины и представителей ду- ховенства в дискуссии с властными представителями на Конгрессе. ; У статті досліджуються відносини "нової" румунської влади з церквою та методи управлін- ня Православним релігійним фондом до націоналізації земель Фонду сільськогосподарського призначення та прийняття регламенту 1925 р. Автор наводить приклади неузгоджених дій королівської диктатури на місцях, що в подальшому призвели до занепаду Фонду. Дослідник висвітлює хід окупації Буковини та плановий процес асиміляції населення. Висвітлені події, що відображають настрої жителів Буковини та представників духовенства в дискусії з владними представниками на Конгресі.

The Israeli military has employed an artificial intelligence-driven "kill list" to select over 30,000 targets in Gaza with minimal human input, fueling civilian casualties in the war-torn strip, according to an explosive new investigation from +972 Magazine.Especially in the early days of the Gaza war, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) personnel ignored the AI's 10% false positive rate and intentionally targeted alleged militants in their homes with unguided "dumb bombs" despite an increased likelihood of civilian harm, according to IDF sources who spoke with +972 Magazine.The investigation sheds light on the myriad ways in which cutting-edge AI tech, combined with lax rules of engagement from IDF commanders on the ground, has fueled staggering rates of civilian harm in Gaza. At least 33,000 Palestinians have died due to Israel's campaign, which followed a Hamas attack that killed 1,200 Israelis last October.The AI targeting software, known as "Lavender," reportedly relies on sprawling surveillance networks and assigns a 1-100 score to every Gazan that estimates the likelihood that they are a Hamas militant. Soldiers then input this information into software known as "Where's Daddy," which uses AI to warn when an alleged militant has returned to their home.Previous reporting from +972 Magazine revealed the existence of a similar AI system for targeting houses used by militants, called "The Gospel." In both cases, the IDF said +972 Magazine exaggerated the role and impact of these high-tech tools."The doomsday scenario of killer algorithms is already unfolding in Gaza," argues Brianna Rosen, a senior fellow at Just Security and the University of Oxford who previously worked at the National Security Council during the Obama administration. RS spoke with Rosen to get her take on the latest revelations about Israel's use of AI in Gaza, how AI is changing war, and what U.S. policymakers should do to regulate military tech. The following conversation has been edited for length and clarity.RS: What does this new reporting from +972 Magazine tell us about how Israel has used AI in Gaza?Rosen: The first thing that I want to stress is that it's not just +972 Magazine. The IDF itself has actually commented on these systems as well. A lot of people claimed that the report overstates some of the claims about AI systems, but Israel itself has made a number of comments that support some of these facts. The report substantiates a trend that we've seen since December with Israel's use of AI in Gaza, which is that AI is increasing the pace of targeting in war and expanding the scope of war. As the IDF itself has acknowledged, it's using AI to accelerate targeting, and the facts are bearing this out. In the first two months of the conflict, Israel attacked roughly 25,000 targets — more than four times as many as previous wars in Gaza. And they're actioning more targets than they ever have in the past. At the same time that the pace of targeting is accelerating, AI is also expanding the scope of war, or the pool of potential targets that are actioned for elimination. They're targeting more junior operatives than they ever have before. In previous campaigns, Israel would run out of known combatants or legitimate military objectives. But this latest reporting [shows] that's not seemingly a barrier to killing anymore. AI is acting, in Israel's own words, as a force multiplier, meaning that it's removing the resource constraints that in the past would prevent the IDF from identifying enough targets. Now they're able to go after significantly lower targets with tenuous or no connections at all to Hamas even though, normally, they wouldn't pursue those targets because of the minimal impact of their death on military objectives.In short, AI is increasing the tempo of operations and expanding the pool of targets, which makes target verification and other precautionary obligations required under international law much harder to fulfill. All of this increases the risk that civilians will be misidentified and mistakenly targeted, contributing to the enormous civilian harm that we've seen thus far.RS: How does this relate to the idea of having a human "in the loop" for AI-driven decisions?Rosen: This is what is so concerning. The debate on military AI has been for so long focused on the wrong question. It's been focused on banning lethal autonomous weapons systems, or "killer robots," without recognizing that AI has already become a pervasive feature of war. Israel and other states, including the United States, are already integrating AI into military operations. They're saying that they're doing it in a responsible way with humans fully "in the loop." But the fear that I have, and which I think we're seeing play out here in Gaza, is that even with a human fully in the loop, there's significant civilian harm because the human reviews of machine decisions are essentially perfunctory.With this report that was released today, there's a claim that there is human verification of the outputs that the AI systems are generating but that the human verification was done in only 20 seconds, just long enough to see whether the target was male or female before authorizing the bombings. Regardless of whether that particular claim is actually borne out, there have been numerous academic studies about the risk of automation bias with AI, which I think is clearly at play here. Because the machine is so smart and has all of these data streams and intelligence streams being fed into it, there's a risk that humans don't sufficiently question its output. This risk of automation bias means that even if humans are approving the targets, they could be simply rubber stamping the decision to use force rather than thoroughly looking at the data that the machine has produced and going back and vetting the targets very carefully. That's just not being done, and it might not even be possible given the problems with explainability and traceability for humans to really understand how AI systems are generating these outputs. This is one of the questions that I asked, by the way, in my article in Just Security in December. Policymakers and the public need to press Israel on this question: What does the human review process really look like for these operations? Is this just rubber stamping the decision to use force, or is there serious review?RS: In this case, it seems like the impact of AI was amplified by the IDF's use of loose rules of engagement. Can you tell me a little bit more about the relationship between emerging tech and practical policy decisions about how to use it?Rosen: That's the other problem here. First of all, you have the problem of Israel's interpretation of international law, which is, in some ways, much more permissive than how other states interpret basic principles like proportionality. On top of that, there are inevitably going to be errors made with AI systems, which contributes to civilian harm. This latest report claims that the Lavender system, for example, was wrong 10% of the time. That margin of error could, in fact, be much greater depending on how Israel is classifying individuals as Hamas militants. The AI systems are trained on data, and Israel has identified certain characteristics of people who they claim are Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives, and then they feed that data into the machine. But what if the features that they are identifying are overly broad — such as carrying a weapon, being in a WhatsApp group with someone linked to Hamas, or even just moving house a lot, which everyone, of course, is doing now because it's a whole country of refugees. If these characteristics are fed into AI systems to identify militants, then that's a big concern because the system is going to take that data and misidentify civilians a great part of the time.Israel can say that it's following international law and that there's human review of all of these decisions, and all of that can be true. But again, it's Israel's interpretation of international law. And it's how they're defining who counts as the combatant in this war and how that data is fed into the AI systems. All of that compounds in a way that can create really serious harm. I also want to point out that all the well-documented problems with AI in the domestic context — from underlying biases in the algorithms to the problem of hallucination — are certainly going to persist in war, and it's going to be compounded because of the pace of decision making. None of this is going to be reviewed in a very careful way. For example, we know that Israel has a massive surveillance system in the Gaza Strip and that all of this data is being fed into the AI systems to contribute to these targeting outputs. Any underlying biases in those systems will feed into and compound into errors in the final targeting output. If human review is perfunctory, then the result will be significant civilian harm, which is what we have seen.RS: The U.S. is interested in AI for lots of military applications, including automated swarms of lethal drones. What does Israel's experience tell us about how American policymakers should approach this tech?Rosen: It tells us that U.S. policymakers have to be extremely circumspect about the use of AI in both intelligence and military operations. The White House and the Department of Defense and other agencies have put forth a number of statements about responsible AI, particularly in a military context. But these have all been very much at the level of principles. Everything depends on how these broad principles for the responsible use of military AI are operationalized in practice, and, of course, we haven't really had a case yet where we've seen the U.S. in a public way relying on these tools in their conflicts. But that's definitely coming, and the U.S. should use this time now to not only learn all the lessons of what's happening in Gaza, but to be very proactive in operationalizing those broad principles for responsible use of military AI, socializing them among other states, and really leading the world in signing on to these principles for military AI. They have to a certain extent, but the progress has been very, very slow. That's what's desperately needed right now.

Tese de doutoramento em Democracia no séc. XXI, apresentada à Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra ; Nas últimas décadas, houve um crescimento exponencial das iniciativas focadas na democracia participativa e deliberativa ao redor do mundo, com um predomínio de experiências locais. No entanto, ao longo do tempo, ficou claro que as experiências em pequena escala apresentam limitações em consubstanciar os novos ideais democráticos. Como tentativas de superar tais limites, é percebido o surgimento de processos supralocais, em contextos regionais e nacionais. Este salto de escala muitas vezes é promovido por instituições estatais e é acompanhado por uma tendência de institucionalização da participação. O objetivo central desta investigação foi analisar as potencialidades e limitações das formas participativas institucionalizadas em nível supralocal enquanto elemento capaz de democratizar a democracia. Para tanto, a investigação teve como objetos de estudo duas políticas públicas institucionalizadas em nível regional, uma no continente europeu e outra na América Latina. O caso do norte global refere-se à Política Toscana de Participação Social, na Itália. Já o caso do sul global trata das formas de participação no âmbito do orçamento do Rio Grande do Sul, no Brasil, as quais incorporam as iniciativas da Consulta Popular e do Sistema Estadual de Participação Popular e Cidadã. Em cerca de dois anos de pesquisa de caráter qualitativo, foram realizados trabalhos de campo que acompanharam a implementação dessas experiências e contaram com a realização de 47 entrevistas semiestruturadas. Os resultados da investigação podem ser divididos em duas categorias, uma com implicações teóricas e outra direcionada às peculiaridades dos processos empíricos. Do ponto de vista teórico, a investigação mostra como as vertentes "puras" da democracia participativa e da democracia deliberativa são inadequadas para compreender e analisar processos institucionalizados supralocais. Nenhuma das duas correntes conseguiu questionar de forma satisfatória os limites de escala definidos por autores que sustentam teoricamente o modelo representativo hegemônico. No que diz respeito à institucionalização, as vertentes puras foram erigidas a partir de uma concepção que trata o Estado e a sociedade civil como categorias distintas, com objetivos e lógicas próprias de funcionamento. No entanto, os processos institucionalizados têm levado ao questionamento das fronteiras entre tais polos e enfatizado a interpenetração entre formas estatais e não-estatais. Para dar conta de refletir sobre casos institucionalizados em larga escala, enfatiza-se o giro teórico identificado no início do século XXI e que trabalha a partir de perspectivas híbridas, que revitaliza conceitos criticados pelas abordagens puras e mescla elementos de ambas as vertentes. Dessa forma, enfatiza-se as abordagens híbridas dos sistemas deliberativos e dos públicos participativos. A primeira surge no norte global, e trabalha a ideia de deliberação possível em contraposição ao ideal deliberativo, retomando a aspiração de transformação ampla do sistema político. A perspectiva sistêmica transita da microescala para a macroescala, onde a ênfase recai na articulação entre instituições e na divisão do trabalho deliberativo. A segunda vertente híbrida abordada tem origem no sul global e percebe o Estado e a sociedade civil como entes não monolíticos, questionando as fronteiras fixas entre ambos. Tal vertente tende a perceber a institucionalização da participação como algo não pernicioso, ao mesmo tempo em que enfatiza objetivos como inclusão política e justiça social. Do ponto de vista empírico, esta investigação mostra que os casos do Rio Grande do Sul e da Toscana representam dois modelos distintos de promover o salto de escala. Nos casos estudados, o aumento de escala foi insuficiente para garantir uma maior influência das formas participativas e deliberativas na transformação ampla do sistema político. No que diz respeito à institucionalização, foi identificado que a formalização por meio de leis contribuiu para a perenidade das políticas, ampliando a resiliência às mudanças de governo. No entanto, a institucionalização formal não garantiu, por si só, a manutenção das iniciativas. Coalizões de defesa foram fundamentais para mobilizar politicamente as leis para que essas garantissem o sustento das experiências. Por fim, foi notado que perenidade e resiliência não significam influência no núcleo central de governo. Em Estados fragmentados e marcados por disputa entre projetos políticos, as iniciativas toscana e gaúcha foram institucionalizadas às margens do sistema político. Assim, apesar de institucionalizadas e relativamente perenes, as iniciativas supralocais estudadas estiveram longe de promover a participação como método de governo, sendo inaptas a estender o ímpeto democratizante para outras arenas no interior do aparato estatal. In the last decades, there has been an exponential growth of initiatives focused on participatory and deliberative democracy around the world, with a predominance of local experiences. However, over time, it has become clear that small-scale experiences have limitations in bringing forth the new democratic ideals. As attempts to overcome such limits, supralocal processes have emerged both in regional and national levels. The scaling-up is often promoted by state institutions and is accompanied by a trend toward the institutionalization of participation processes. This research aims at analysing the potentials and limits of the scaling-up and institutionalization of participatory and deliberative democracy as a tool for democratizing democracy. To this end, this dissertation focuses on the implementation of two public policies at the regional level, one in Europe and the other in Latin America. The global north case is the Tuscan Participation Policy, in Italy. The global south case deals with the social participation in the Rio Grande do Sul state budget, in Brazil, which incorporate the initiatives of the Popular Consultation and the System of Popular and Citizen Participation. I carried out two years of qualitative research and fieldwork on the implementation of these policies, involving 47 semi-structured interviews. The results can be divided in two dimensions, one with theoretical implications and the other related to the empirical processes. From a theoretical point of view, the research shows how the "pure" participatory and deliberative democracy theories are inadequate to analyse the supralocal institutionalized processes. Neither of the two approaches addresses satisfactorily the limits of scale defined by authors who theoretically support the representative hegemonic model. Referring to institutionalization, the "pure" approaches were built on a conception that treats the State and the Civil Society as independent categories, each one with its own objectives and working logics. However, institutionalized processes put into question these boundaries between State and the Civil Society. In order to better analyse the large-scale institutionalized cases, it is necessary to work with hybrid perspectives, which revitalizes concepts criticized by the "pure" participatory and deliberative approaches, merging elements of both lines. In this way, the hybrid approaches of the Deliberative Systems and of the Participatory Publics are emphasized. The first emerges in the global north and works with the idea of "good enough" deliberation and not with the deliberative ideals, revitalizing the aspiration for a broad transformation of the political system. The systemic perspective moves from the microscale to the macro-scale, where the emphasis is on the articulation between institutions and in the deliberative division of labour. The Participatory Publics perspective has its origins in the global south and perceives the state and civil society as non-monolithic entities, questioning the fixed boundaries between these categories. The Participatory Publics approach perceives the institutionalization of participation in a non-negative way, emphasizing goals such as political inclusion and social justice. From an empirical point of view, this research shows that the cases of Rio Grande do Sul and Tuscany represent two different models of promoting the scaling-up of participation and deliberation. In these cases, the increase of scale was insufficient to promote a broad transformation in the political system. In respect to institutionalization, it was identified that the formalization through laws increases the resilience to government changes, contributing to the maintenance of the policies. However, the institutionalization is necessary but not sufficient. Defense Coalitions were fundamental in politically mobilizing the laws to ensure the policies' survival. Finally, it was noted that resilience does not mean influence in the heart of government and in the agenda setting processes. In fragmented states marked by a dispute between political projects, the Tuscan and Rio Grande do Sul initiatives were institutionalized on the margins of the political system. Despite being institutionalized and relatively resilient, the supralocal initiatives studied have not promoted participation as a method of government, and are incapable of extending the democratizing impetus to other arenas within the state apparatus. ; In the last decades, there has been an exponential growth of initiatives focused on participatory and deliberative democracy around the world, with a predominance of local experiences. However, over time, it has become clear that small-scale experiences have limitations in bringing forth the new democratic ideals. As attempts to overcome such limits, supralocal processes have emerged both in regional and national levels. The scaling-up is often promoted by state institutions and is accompanied by a trend toward the institutionalization of participation processes. This research aims at analysing the potentials and limits of the scaling-up and institutionalization of participatory and deliberative democracy as a tool for democratizing democracy. To this end, this dissertation focuses on the implementation of two public policies at the regional level, one in Europe and the other in Latin America. The global north case is the Tuscan Participation Policy, in Italy. The global south case deals with the social participation in the Rio Grande do Sul state budget, in Brazil, which incorporate the initiatives of the Popular Consultation and the System of Popular and Citizen Participation. I carried out two years of qualitative research and fieldwork on the implementation of these policies, involving 47 semi-structured interviews. The results can be divided in two dimensions, one with theoretical implications and the other related to the empirical processes. From a theoretical point of view, the research shows how the "pure" participatory and deliberative democracy theories are inadequate to analyse the supralocal institutionalized processes. Neither of the two approaches addresses satisfactorily the limits of scale defined by authors who theoretically support the representative hegemonic model. Referring to institutionalization, the "pure" approaches were built on a conception that treats the State and the Civil Society as independent categories, each one with its own objectives and working logics. However, institutionalized processes put into question these boundaries between State and the Civil Society. In order to better analyse the large-scale institutionalized cases, it is necessary to work with hybrid perspectives, which revitalizes concepts criticized by the "pure" participatory and deliberative approaches, merging elements of both lines. In this way, the hybrid approaches of the Deliberative Systems and of the Participatory Publics are emphasized. The first emerges in the global north and works with the idea of "good enough" deliberation and not with the deliberative ideals, revitalizing the aspiration for a broad transformation of the political system. The systemic perspective moves from the microscale to the macro-scale, where the emphasis is on the articulation between institutions and in the deliberative division of labour. The Participatory Publics perspective has its origins in the global south and perceives the state and civil society as nonmonolithic entities, questioning the fixed boundaries between these categories. The Participatory Publics approach perceives the institutionalization of participation in a nonnegative way, emphasizing goals such as political inclusion and social justice. From an empirical point of view, this research shows that the cases of Rio Grande do Sul and Tuscany represent two different models of promoting the scaling-up of participation and deliberation. In these cases, the increase of scale was insufficient to promote a broad transformation in the political system. In respect to institutionalization, it was identified that the formalization through laws increases the resilience to government changes, contributing to the maintenance of the policies. However, the institutionalization is necessary but not sufficient. Defense Coalitions were fundamental in politically mobilizing the laws to ensure the policies' survival. Finally, it was noted that resilience does not mean influence in the heart of government and in the agenda setting processes. In fragmented states marked by a dispute between political projects, the Tuscan and Rio Grande do Sul initiatives were institutionalized on the margins of the political system. Despite being institutionalized and relatively resilient, the supralocal initiatives studied have not promoted participation as a method of government, and are incapable of extending the democratizing impetus to other arenas within the state apparatus. ; CNPq, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico – Brasil (ref. 211410/2013-6)

Comentario del artículo de John J. Mearsheimer, "Imperial by Design", The National Interest, No. 111 (Jan/Feb 2011), pp. 16-34.Desde el fin de la Guerra Fría, Estados Unidos se ha visto envuelto en un continuo proceso de búsqueda, re-definición, y autocrítica con respecto a los lineamientos fundamentales de su conducta internacional. En un mundo ya sin la presencia de la Unión Soviética, la identificación de las amenazas a la seguridad nacional estadounidense se ha vuelto una tarea mucho más compleja, aunque aún muy necesaria. En paralelo a todo este proceso, las diversas perspectivas teóricas de nuestra disciplina juegan un rol fundamental en tanto que brindan herramientas analíticas no sólo para quienes debaten los asuntos políticos internacionales, ya sea en un aula o públicamente, sino también para aquellos que deben diseñar políticas y tomar decisiones en nombre del estado. Por medio de la colocación de ciertos acentos y de diversos niveles de enfoque, cada una de las grandes teorías de relaciones internacionales permite navegar el turbio mar del día a día de los asuntos internacionales; y en definitiva, ayudan a separar la hojarasca y lo anecdótico, de aquello que es más relevante.En el último número de The National Interest, John J. Mearsheimer, profesor de la Universidad de Chicago en los EE.UU. y exponente destacado de la vertiente más dura del realismo estructural, realiza una muy necesitada revisión, actualización y crítica del tradicional debate sobre las opciones estratégicas futuras de EE.UU. En principio, Mearsheimer logra captar magistralmente los aspectos centrales fundamentales de cada estrategia y relacionarlas con las distintas corrientes teóricas de la disciplina. Más importante aún, consigue destilar en cada caso las implicancias políticas a largo plazo de perseguir o no ciertas estrategias y explicaciones teóricas. Esto constituye, luego, la materia prima con la cual Mearsheimer moldea sus críticas al liberalismo y al neoconservadurismo estadounidense.En su artículo, John J. Mearsheimer plantea una lectura mordaz y contundente sobre el debate en torno a cada una de estas preguntas. Haciendo eco de sus credenciales realistas, Mearsheimer dedica gran parte de su trabajo a desbancar el "profundo sentimiento de optimismo acerca del futuro" (p.16) que ha llegado a predominar en EE.UU. desde el fin de la Guerra Fría. Este optimismo, Mearsheimer explica, puede verse con claridad tanto en el discurso político de estadistas como Clinton o Albright, como también en la prédica de pensadores, escritores y académicos como Francis Fukuyama y Charles Krauthammer. Ambos grupos por igual, según Mearsheimer, son los responsables por la instauración de un "consenso" liberal político y económico que, además de un "peligroso optimismo", buscan implantar de la democracia por el mundo, la profundización del proceso de globalización y la consolidación definitiva de un sentido de "fin de la historia". Según el autor, sin embargo, "los resultados han dejado al país en una situación desastrosa" (p.16).En lo que respecta a la política exterior estadounidense, Mearsheimer sostiene que existe un ya conocido conjunto de opciones estratégicas o diseños de "grand strategy" (Posen & Ross 1996/97; Kohout III et al. 1995; Nacht 1995) que emanan de la rica historia política del país, que se entremezclan con elementos de su cultura política, y que alimentan el actual debate sobre qué rumbo debe tomar el país de cara al siglo XXI (cfr. Russell-Mead 2002; Jentleson 2010; Dueck 2006). En resumidas cuentas, sostiene el autor, existen tres grandes tipos de estrategias identificadas por la literatura especializada: en primer lugar, y tal vez la más venerada por quienes ven en los Padres Fundadores valores y principios aún aplicables a la actualidad, existe la opción del aislamiento. Los elementos principales de esta primera alternativa son, según algunos de sus exponentes actuales (Tucker 1972; Nordlinger 1995; Gholtz et al. 1997), la concentración casi exclusiva en el Hemisferio Occidental como la zona prioritaria de los intereses vitales estadounidenses y la adopción de una actitud neutral y prudente frente a las posibilidades de expansión más allá de estos límites, en busca de ganancias económicas o poder. Una segunda opción estratégica es el involucramiento selectivo, la cual incorpora (además del Hemisferio Occidental) a Europa, Noreste de Asia y al Golfo Pérsico como áreas vitales donde EE.UU. debiera mantener una presencia militar clara y contemplar el uso de la fuerza llegado el caso extremo de ser ello necesario (Art 1991; Chase et al. 1995).En tercer lugar, la favorita de casi todos los realistas en EE.UU. (incluyendo a Mearsheimer): el equilibrio extra-continental. Esta tercera opción estratégica también pone el énfasis en las regiones de Europa, Noreste de Asia, Golfo Pérsico y, por supuesto, el continente Americano, pero con la importante diferencia de que la presencia militar en tales regiones debe hacerse de una manera más indirecta. En otras palabras, mientras que el involucramiento selectivo plantea para los EE.UU. un rol de sheriff o "policía internacional", patrullando estas regiones estratégicas y manteniendo una presencia vigilante constante "en las calles" de la política mundial, por su parte el equilibrio extra-continental plantea un rol ya no de policía sino algo más cercano al de "bombero internacional". A diferencia de un rol de policía mundial, un bombero no patrulla sino que permanece preparado en su cuartel de bomberos a la espera de la llamada de auxilio. Gracias a esta analogía, es posible observar que este otro rol planteado por la estrategia del equilibrio extra-regional, no obstante, demanda dos elementos cruciales: uno, que en cada una de las regiones consideradas vitales haya "tomas de agua" listas para ser utilizadas (es decir, presencia de aliados, bases militares, despliegue de flotas en los océanos cercanos, etc.), y dos, vecinos dispuestos a intentar "apagar el fuego" por sí solos de forma que, sólo una vez agotados todos sus recursos regionales, sea EE.UU. quien recurra a solucionar los problemas en dicha región. Puesto en términos más académicos, EE.UU. actuaría sólo como equilibrador de último recurso. Como se puede notar, la diferencia entre ambos roles no es menor ya que generan consecuencias políticas muy disímiles.Las tres opciones estratégicas mencionadas hasta aquí han sido comúnmente identificadas y discutidas en profundidad durante los últimos quince o veinte años por quienes estudian la política exterior estadounidense. En su artículo, sin embargo, Mearsheimer incorpora a la discusión dos nuevas estrategias: por un lado, la búsqueda de la construcción de un orden liberal internacional, y por el otro, la búsqueda de la construcción de un "imperio" norteamericano. La primera estrategia, netamente liberal, plantea una alternativa más viable y "americana", acentuando la promoción de la democracia (sobre todo en el Oriente Medio) y la defensa de las instituciones internacionales liberales. Dentro de este esquema, EE.UU. juega un rol central en tanto que representa el primer estado hegemónico en la historia de corte liberal, lo cual lo convierte, según el argumento, en un líder internacional benévolo y más pacífico. A su vez, y dado esto último, se vuelve posible la construcción de un orden mundial apoyado en el liderazgo estadounidense, a través de instituciones globales, que limiten y amplifiquen según el caso el poder de los estados. También central para esta corriente es la idea más reciente de la conformación de una "coalición de democracias" que aceleren y comanden la construcción de este orden liberal global (Ikenberry 2001; Slaughter 2004; Ikenberry & Slaughter 2006).La segunda de estas otras estrategias, la del "imperio", que en realidad posee una larga historia, durante los últimos años ha tomado una nueva relevancia gracias al resurgimiento del pensamiento neoconservador en EE.UU. durante la última administración Bush (Halper & Clarke 2004). Compartiendo ciertas premisas elementales con el liberalismo, como por ejemplo la idea de la promoción de la democracia (Kagan 2008), o el foco en Oriente Medio como objetivo central de aplicación (Kaplan & Kristol 2003), pero distanciándose principalmente en temas concernientes al rol y uso de las instituciones y del poder militar (Kagan & Kristol 2000), los neoconservadores proponen que EE.UU. haga uso directo de su preeminencia militar para pacificar la política internacional, construyendo una suerte de pax americana que solidifique este status quo particular en el tiempo. En definitiva, mientras la visión liberal de orden coloca a EE.UU. en el rol de líder, dentro de una coalición de potencias liberales, bajo un contexto de promoción de la democracia y con una autolimitación al poder emanada de instituciones internacionales estables; la visión neoconservadora, en cambio, coloca a EE.UU. en un rol más bien de imperio benévolo, ávido y listo para hacer uso de su preeminencia militar, y en total descreimiento de la utilidad de las instituciones internacionales en la consecución de este tipo de orden global.Al incorporar estas dos "nuevas" estrategias, debe reconocerse que Mearsheimer no sólo ha logrado enriquecer el debate sobre las opciones estratégicas estadounidenses, ampliándolo y actualizándolo aún más, sino que también ha permitido hacer una más clara y honesta (re)evaluación sobre los elementos teóricos detrás de cada una de ellas, y sobre las implicancias políticas reales de seguir ciegamente uno u otro camino. Frente a las más cruciales interrogantes de momento para quienes deben tomar decisiones en EE.UU., como por ejemplo: ¿Cuál es la mejor manera de solucionar el problema del terrorismo internacional?; ¿Cómo reaccionar política y económicamente al raudo ascenso de China en la escena internacional?; ¿Cómo administrar los vastos intereses globales estadounidenses con la actual crisis económica nacional e internacional?, Mearsheimer sugiere que la opción del equilibrio extra-continental u off-shore balance es la mejor manera no sólo de dar una respuesta a estas cuestiones, sino también al más acuciante dilema de cómo sostener el rol de preeminencia global de cual goza EE.UU. desde el derrumbe soviético. Y es aquí desde donde, tal vez, se pueda criticar a Mearsheimer desde una perspectiva sudamericana, si se quiere.Para Mearsheimer, la opción del equilibrio extra-continental se encuentra en una categoría única en sí misma, separado del resto de las demás (inferiores) estrategias. En principio, permitiría minimizar costos, maximizar beneficios, y volver más segura (y no más insegura) la actual posición de primus inter pares de EE.UU. Sin embargo, en palabras de Mearsheimer y de otros realistas contemporáneos (Posen 2007, Walt 2005), pareciera ser como si el equilibrio extra-continental realizara proclamas de superioridad tanto prácticas como morales en lo que respecta a la política exterior de la superpotencia que, en realidad, son altamente debatibles. A los ojos de Mearsheimer, esta estrategia permitiría no sólo solucionar el problema del terrorismo internacional, sino también los profundos desequilibrios fiscales estructurales del país y –más sencillo aún– la cuestión de la mala imagen estadounidense en el mundo. No obstante, existe un conjunto de serios problemas con la magnitud de estos alegatos: el caso de China y la paradoja del declive hegemónico.En lo que concierne al ascenso de China en la escena internacional, tanto Mearsheimer como otros realistas (Mearsheimer 2006; Layne 2008) se ven enfrascados en un dilema. Por un lado, son conscientes que China puede, o puede que no, llegue a desafiar la preeminencia estadounidense. En parte, uno u otro resultado se deberán a las decisiones de los líderes y estados involucrados en el proceso histórico. Sin embargo, como buenos neorrealistas, el particular énfasis que estos académicos ponen en la estructura no les deja muchas opciones a elegir más allá de la "inevitabilidad estructural" de un conflicto con China (Mearsheimer 2010). Esto, entonces, plantea una suerte de profecía de auto-cumplimiento desde la cual es difícil escapar desde el neorrealismo duro, y que, conjugado con la idea del equilibrio extra-continental, genera serias dudas sobre realmente cuán seguro haría a EE.UU. el perseguir tal camino. Asimismo, en lo que respecta a la durabilidad de la hegemonía estadounidense, la estrategia de equilibrio extra-continental plantea grandes ambigüedades.En su versión original (Layne 1997), el off-shore balancing era visto como la mejor estrategia para "administrar el declive hegemónico". Después de todo, la idea misma de esta estrategia fue repensada a partir de la experiencia británica en el siglo XIX y de cómo ésta potencia "administró" su propio declive con maestría y pericia. En manos de Mearsheimer, sin embargo, el equilibrio extra-continental es presentado como la mejor estrategia para prolongar la primacía de EE.UU. En otras palabras, para Mearsheimer esta estrategia se vuelve no una suerte de receta para superpotencias de la tercera edad, sino más bien una píldora para permanecer siempre joven. Con esto, también, Mearsheimer genera no sólo que sus enérgicas críticas a los "imperialistas liberales" y a los "imperialistas neoconservadores" se tornen más ambiguas, sino que también el respeto por la venerable tradición realista hacia el equilibrio extra-continental se esfume rápidamente, si no por desencanto, entonces por impracticabilidad. Si el foco más duro de la crítica de Mearsheimer hacia las demás estrategias se centra en que, al defender una forma de "imperio americano" éstas generan todos los problemas de seguridad actuales (como el terrorismo, la bancarrota financiera por el excesivo gasto de sostener un involucramiento activo permanente en el mundo, etc.), pierde sentido el proponer una estrategia "alternativa" que, de fondo, posee los mismos objetivos: permanecer en la cumbre. Al final del día, pareciera ser que no hay tantas diferencias entre liberales y "liberales con esteroides" (o neoconservadores), y quienes se dicen "realistas". En manos de Mearsheimer, el realismo deja de apoyarse en la idea del equilibrio como una herramienta de estabilidad internacional, y adquiere el potencial de convertirse en un medio alternativo para el mismo fin liberal y neoconservador de congelar la historia. En definitiva, la interpretación de Mearsheimer convierte la discusión en algo más banal; en un simple debate sobre distintos medios para alcanzar un mismo fin.En conclusión, la gran pregunta, que atraviesa transversalmente a toda la discusión sobre las opciones estratégicas de EE.UU. luego del fin de la Guerra Fría, al parecer sigue siendo ¿cómo pretender sostener una posición de preeminencia internacional sin devenir en un proyecto imperial en el largo plazo? Si la idea del equilibrio extra-continental ha de retener cierto valor y utilidad, es sólo en su versión moderada, proponiéndose un único y simple rol, más humilde y prudente, de ayudar a las superpotencias a declinar con dignidad. Es, en última instancia, una receta para las potencias en declive; una forma suave, gentil y honorable de dar paso a la historia. En cualquiera de sus otras formas, el equilibrio extra-continental no es más que la búsqueda de perpetuar la primacía estadounidense por otros medios. *Profesor, Universidad Abierta Interamericana (UAI), Buenos Aires.Maestría en Estudios Internacionales,Universidad Torcuato di Tella.Referencias bilbiográficas:Art, Robert (1991): "A Defensible Defense: America's Grand Strategy After the Cold War", International Security, Vol. 15, No. 4 (Spring), pp. 5–53.Chase, Robert S.; Emily B. Hill & Paul Kennedy (1996): "Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 1 (January/February), pp. 33-51.Dueck, Colin (2008): Reluctant Crusaders: Power, Culture, and Change in American Grand Strategy (Princeton University Press).Gholtz, Eugene; Daryl G. Press & Harvey M. Sapolsky (1997): "Come Home America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation", International Security, Vol. 21, No. 4 (Spring), pp. 5-48.Halper, Stefan & Jonathan Clarke (2004): America Alone: The Neo-Conservatives and the World Order (Cambridge University Press).Ikenberry, G. John & Anne-Marie Slaughter (2006): Forging a World of Liberty Under Law. U.S. National Security in the 21stCentury, Final paper of the Princeton Project on National Security, September 27, pp. 1-96.Ikenberry, G. John (2001): After Victory (Princeton University Press).Jentleson, Bruce W. (2010): American Foreign Policy: The Dynamics of Choice in the 21st Century (W. W. Norton & Company, 4th edition).Kagan, Robert & William Kristol (2000): Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in America's Foreign and Defense Policy(Encounter Books).Kagan, Robert (2008): The Return of History and the End of Dreams (Alfred. A. Knopf).Kaplan, Lawrence F. & William Kristol (2003): The War Over Iraq: Saddam's Tyranny and America's Mission (Encounter Books).Kohout III, John J.; Steven J. Lambakis; Keith B. Payne; Robert S. Rudney; Willis A. Stanley; Bernanrd C. Victory & Linda H. Vlahos (1995): "Alternative Grand Strategy Options for the United States", Comparative Strategy, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 361-420.Layne, Christopher (1997): "From Preponderance to Offshore Balance. America's Future grand Strategy", International Security, Vol. 22, No. 1 (Summer), pp. 86-125.Layne, Christopher (2008): "China's Challenge to U.S. Hegemony", Current History, Vol. 107, No. 705 (January), pp. 13-18.Mearsheimer, John J. (2006): "China's Unpeaceful Rise", Current History, Vol. 105, No. 690 (April), pp. 160-162.Mearsheimer, John J. (2010): "The Gathering Storm: China's Challenge to U.S. Power in Asia", The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, pp. 381–396.Nacht, Alexander (1995): "U.S. Foreign Policy Strategies", The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 3, pp. 195-210.Nordlinger, Eric A. (1995): Isolationism Reconfigured (Princeton University Press).Posen, Barry R. & Andre L. Ross (1996/1997): "Competing Visions for U.S. grand Strategy", International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Winter), pp. 5-53.Posen, Barry R. (2007): "The Case for Restraint", The American Interest, Vol. 3, No. 1 (November/December), pp. 6-33.Russell-Mead, Walter (2002): Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World (Routledge).Slaughter, Anne-Marie (2004): A New World Order (Princeton University Press).Tucker, Robert W. (1972): A New Isolationism: Threat or Promise? (Universe Books). 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1. Opening session. The International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies and Associated Meetings 40th Session / Antonino Zichichi. Acceptance speech for the 2008 Gian-Carlo Wick gold medal / Michael Creutz. Forest policies, carbon sequestration and biodiversity protection / Jan Szyszko. Ozone and climate change interaction / Rumen D. Bojkov. The geometry of the spatial-temporal field of CO[symbol] atmospheric concentrations / Mikhail J. Antonovsky -- 2. Climate & methodology focus : basic theoretical problems - models & statistics. Introductory remarks : basic theoretical problems - models and statistics / Christopher Essex. Auditing temperature reconstructions of the past 1000 years / Stephen McIntyre. Delineating dynamics from nonlinear time series analysis / Anastasios A. Tsonis. Climate variability, sensitivity drift, and "lumpy" climate change / Kyle L. Swanson -- 3. Energy & pollution focus : nuclear waste issue on the road to sustainability. Resolving the nuclear waste issue on the road to sustainability / Frank L. Parker and Lorne G. Everett. Is nuclear waste the Achilles' heel of the "nuclear renaissance"? / John F. Ahearne. How we manage and process nuclear waste / James A. Rispoli, Steven L. Krahn and Steven L. Ross. Large radiation accidents - environmental and medical impacts / Rudolph Alexakhin. External and social costs of electricity generation / Rainer Friedrich. National and multinational repositories : a prerequisite for a nuclear renaissance / Charles McCombie, Neil Chapmand and Tom Isaacs -- 4. Climate & pollution focus : air-borne particulates and health consequences. Improving public health services through space technology and spatial information systems / Stanley A. Morain. Airborne desert dust : implications for global health / Dale W. Griffin -- 5. Food and energy focus : sustainability of biofuels. World biofuel supplies and policies / Carmen Difiglio. Habitat and biodiversity losses from biofuels : lessons from Southeast Asia / Lian Pin-Koh. Biofuel policies and the food crises in developing countries / Kwadwo Asenso-Okyere. Major drivers of food and commodity price increases, global biofuels programs, and the global land use impacts of those programs / Wallace E. Tyner -- 6. Information security focus : the crisis in internet security. Plenary meeting on information security-focus : the crisis in internet security / Henning Wegener. New challenges for IT-security research in ICT / Udo Helmbrecht and Rainer Plaga. The role of identifiers in global cybersecurity / Robert E. Kahn. The global cybersecurity agenda / Hamadoun I. Touré. The crisis in internet security : an EU perspective / Jacques Bus. Homeland security vs. homeland defense : gaps galore / Jody R. Westby -- 7. Energy focus : nuclear power present and future. Nuclear power present and future / Richard Wilson. Renaissance of nuclear energy, year 2008 / Frantis̮ek Janouch. Nuclear energy, present and future / David J. Hill. Nuclear renaissance : industrial requirements for an integrated and sustainable implementation / Philippe Garderet -- 8. Medicine & climate focus : global warming & vector-borne diseases. Climate change and public health / Diego Buriot. New approaches for studying vectors and vector-borne diseases / David Rogers. Undesired imports : an Asian tiger and an African virus / Alessandra Della Torre. Surveillance and prevention of arboviral diseases : a challenge for the future / Hervé Zeller. Virus evolution : control and prevention / Franco Maria Ruggieri. Vector-borne diseases in the Asian part of Russia / Sergey Netesov -- 9. Global monitoring of the planet focus : disarmament and non-proliferation regime, In co-operation with the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. From the nuclear war emergency to nuclear proliferation / Antonino Zichichi. Special session on new military threats in the multipolar world-disarmament and non-proliferation Rrime : the comprehensive test ban and the fissile material cut-off treaties / Carlo Trezza. CTBT : prospects and challenges in the wider context of the nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime / Tibor Tóth -- Subsession I - challenges to the disarmament and non-proliferation regime. Nuclear renaissance and nuclear disarmament : synergies or enemies / George Perkovich. Building a wall between nuclear power and nuclear weapons / Mark Fitzpatrick. Towards disarmament : what role for middle nuclear powers? / Venance Journé. Removing the peril of nuclear weapons - the Reykjavik-2 approach / Richard L. Garwin -- Subsession II - The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The enduring value of the comprehensive test ban and prospects for its entry into force / Daryl G. Kimball. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban treaty : current status and prospects / Sylwin Gizowski -- Subsession III - negotiations for a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT). Prospects for a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty / Ambassador Marius Grinius. Verification of an FMCT / Annette Schaper. Analysis of Russia's attitude toward nuclear disannament and possible future steps / Eugene Miasnikov -- 10. Science & technology focus : global monitoring of the planet & innovations in screening technologies. The northern sea route : development prospective and scientific tasks / Arthur Chilingarov. Logical reasoning and reasonable answers consistent with declared objectives for the benefit of mankind / Dario B. Crosetto -- 11. WFS general meeting PMP reports - debate and conclusions. Pennanent monitoring panel on infonnation security : Chairman's report / Henning Wegener. Pollution PMP annual report / Lome Everett. PMP limits of development : report to the general assembly / Geraldo Gomes Serra. Permanent monitoring panel report on energy / Art Rosenfeld and William Fulkerson. AIDS and infectious diseases PMP / Franco M. Buonaguro. Climate PMP report / William A. Sprigg. Responding to the prospect of dirty dust (The residue from a Radiological Dispersal Device-RDD) / Richard L. Garwin. (Report presented by Richard Garwin) Permanent monitoring panel on motivations for terrorism / The Lord Alderdice. Mother and child permanent monitoring panel : climate changes and mother and child health / Nathalie Charpak -- 12. Energy panel meeting. Oil prices increase. Why? Till when!! / Hisham Khatib. Status of the ITER broader approach and its related problems / Akira Miyahara. Memorandum on the protection of Japanese nuclear power station from the attack of heavy earthquakes / Akira Miyahara -- 13. Information security panel meeting. Electronic identity cards and citizens' portals contributions to a culture of cybersecurity / Udo Helmbrecht -- 14. Limits of development panel meeting. Accelerated climate change : an unexpected new limit for developing countries / Alberto González-Pozo. The role of forests in mitigation of climate change in Lithuania / Leonardas Kairiukstis. Climate, energy and development / Geraldo G. Serra -- 15. 5 PMPs meeting - science and technology for sustainable well-being. Science and technology for sustainable well-being / William Fulkerson and Jef Ongena -- 16. Seminar participants -- 17. Ettore Majorana Erice science for peace prize scientific session. Energy and climate : managing climate change and recommendations of the World Federation of Scientists. Framework of managing climate change and recommendations from Erice / William Fulkerson and William A. Sprigg. The cost of doing nothing / Bruce Stram. Challenge of GHG emission reductions - The IEA 450 scenario / Carmen Difiglio. Mitigation, adaptation and sustainability / Geraldo G. Serra. Geoengineering : getting a start on a possible insurance policy / Michael C. MacCracken.