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Abstract. For the purpose of flood risk analysis, reliable loss models are an indispensable need. The most common models use stage-damage functions relating damage to water depth. They are often derived from empirical flood loss data (i.e. loss data collected after a flood event). However, object specific loss data (e.g. losses of single residential buildings) from recent flood events in Germany showed higher average losses in less probable events, regardless of actual water level. Hence, models that were derived from such data tend to overestimate losses caused by more probable events. Therefore, it is the aim of the study to analyse the relation between flood damage and recurrence interval and to propose a method for considering recurrence interval in flood loss modelling. The survey was based on residential building loss data (n=2158) of recent flood events in 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany and on-site recurrence interval of the respective events. We discovered a highly significant positive correlation between loss extent and recurrence interval for classified water levels as well as increasing average losses for longer recurrence intervals within each class. The application of principal component analysis revealed the interrelation between factors that influence the damage extent directly or indirectly, and recurrence interval. No single factor or component could be identified that explained the influence of recurrence interval, which led to the conclusion that recurrence interval cannot substitute, but complement other damage influencing factors in flood loss modelling approaches. Finally, a method was developed to include recurrence interval in typical flood loss models and make them applicable to a wider range of flood events. Validation including statistical error analysis showed that the modified models improve loss estimates in comparison to traditional approaches. The proposed multi-parameter model FLEMOps+r performs particularly well.

ABSTRACTManuscript Type: EmpiricalResearch Question/Issue: This study is among the first to investigate the impact of gender on the relationship between the compensation gap of the CEO and Vice‐Presidents on company performance, testing if companies managed by a female CEO or a male CEO follow tournament or behavioral theory. Tournament theory suggests that a large compensation gap between CEO and company Vice‐Presidents (VPs) leads to higher company performance; behavioral theory states that higher performance may be achieved with a small compensation gap between CEO and VPs. Additionally the study also investigates if companies managed by a female CEO perform better, or not, than those managed by a male CEO, and if the factors that explain the compensation gap between CEO and VPs in these two groups of companies are the same, or not. Data for the investigation emanated from the USA during the period 1992 to 2004.Research Findings/Insights: The results reflect something quite new in the area – on average, companies managed by a female CEO perform better, and have a smaller compensation gap between the CEO and VPs than companies managed by a male CEO. In companies managed by a female CEO, a smaller difference in the total compensation gap between CEO and Vice‐Presidents leads, on average, to higher company performance, however, when the CEO is a male, a higher compensation gap is required to obtain higher company performance. The results provide empirical support that the behavioral theory is predominant in companies managed by a female whereas tournament theory is predominant in companies managed by a male.Theoretical/Academic Implications: The paper fills an important gap in the existing literature by providing econometric evidence that males and females CEOs have a different impact on the relationship between CEO and VPs compensation gap and company performance, and that it is not indifferent to choosing a male or a female CEO in terms of company performance.Practitioner/Policy Implications: This study offers an insight to practitioners and policy makers suggesting that gender influences the relationship between the CEO and Vice‐Presidents compensation gap and company performance. Boards may be able to improve company performance if they limit the compensation gap between CEO and VPs when the CEO is a female and extend it, when it is a male.

BACKGROUND: The youth criminal-legal system is under heavy political scrutiny with multiple calls for significant transformation. Leaders within the system are faced with rethinking traditional models and are likely to benefit from behavioral health research evidence as they redesign systems. Little is known about how juvenile court systems access and use behavioral health research evidence; further, the field lacks a validated survey measure of behavioral health research use that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of evidence dissemination interventions for policy and system leaders. Conceptual research use is a particularly salient construct for system reform as it describes the process of shifting awareness and the consideration of new frameworks for action. A tool designed to measure the conceptual use of behavioral health research would advance the field's ability to develop effective models of research evidence dissemination, including collaborative planning models to support the use of behavioral health research in reforms of the criminal-legal system. METHODS: The ARC Study is a longitudinal, cohort and measurement validation study. It will proceed in two phases. The first phase will focus on measure development using established methods of construct validity (theoretical review, Delphi methods for expert review, cognitive interviewing). The second phase will involve gathering responses from the developed survey to examine scale psychometrics using Rasch analyses, change sensitivity analyses, and associations between research use exposure and conceptual research use among juvenile court leaders. We will recruit juvenile court leaders (judges, administrators, managers, supervisors) from 80 juvenile court jurisdictions with an anticipated sample size of n = 520 respondents. DISCUSSION: The study will introduce a new measurement tool for the field that will advance implementation science methods for the study of behavioral health research evidence use in complex policy and decision-making ...

This exploratory study examines non-refugee immigrant students with limited or interrupted formal education (SLIFE) from Latin America pursuing their secondary education. The education system and the language (English) used differ from the system and language (Spanish) used in their home countries, leading to the educational exclusion of this group. Therefore, we focus on analysing the positive role of high expectations and adult role models concerning the educational inclusion of SLIFE in the host country. To this end, we conducted an empirical research using the communicative approach, interviewing 36 Latin American SLIFE between 15 and 20 years and 14 of their families. Ključne riječi SLIFE, education, emotional factors, high expectations, adult role models

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine a proposed model of location-based advertising (LBA) effectiveness upon the influence of integrative perceived values on consumers' attitude and behavioral responses in the immaturity of LBA in Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachA survey research method was utilized to collect data from mobile users. A real sample of 459 respondents was deemed and the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was applied to analyze data.FindingsThe results unveil that contextual offers, social facilitation, and advertising values have significantly positive effects on attitude; in turn, attitude mediates between these factors and purchase intention, information seeking and recommendation behaviors. Moreover, social facilitation is a significant stimulator of purchase intention. Otherwise, perceived encroached risk negatively impacts attitude.Practical implicationsMarketers should capture considerable attention to mobile natives' conscious awareness about a mechanism of tailoring their enthusiasm and behavioral responses at the embryonic stage of LBA growth in emerging countries like Vietnam.Originality/valueThis study fills the gap in the current literature by simultaneously exploring the importance of integrative perceived values to construct a hypothetical framework of consumers' responses and performance based on the uses and gratifications theory, inclusive perceived behavioral control derived from theory of planned behavior, associated with contextual value from the nature of LBA.

For the past centuries, fossil resources served the German economy as the basis for numerous technological innovations facilitating continuous economic growth and prosperity. However, global challenges of the 21 st century such as climate change and depleting resources increasingly uncover the unintended consequences of a fossil-based economy for the social and natural system. One promising strategy to solve these problems is presented by the bio-economy concept which aims to replace fossil resources by bio-based materials stemming from plants, animals, microorganisms and biological waste streams. In this vein, this innovative concept exposes the agri-food sector to a whole set of novel value-added processes, products and services (e.g. bio-energy or bio-based plastics). The success of these innovations ultimately depends on value chain actors' behavioral motivations to adopt them. However, many economic regions still do not fully take advantage of bio-economy innovations which is why it is critical to understand the factors that drive actors in the agri-food value chain to adopt these innovations. Hence, this thesis explores how farmers' and consumers' adoption decisions are affected by their internal behavioral motivations such as their values, beliefs and norms. Moreover, this thesis uses insights from behavioral economics to test nudging strategies to foster the adoption of bio-economy innovations. In order to achieve these objectives, this thesis conducts three empirical studies. The first study assesses the effect of behavioral motivations on farmers' interest in the adoption of bio-economy practices, using the case of the utilization of horticultural by-products. Therefore, a survey with German fruit and vegetable farmers ( N = 96) has been carried out and data have been analyzed in a Structural Equation Model. Findings suggest that pro-environmental values, beliefs and norms are relevant to predict farmers' interest in bio-economy practices. Results further indicate that an ecological worldview is potentially relevant for farmers' perception of contextual conditions aimed to foster the bio-economy. The second study explores systems thinking as a behavioral motivation for consumer intention to buy bio-based products. The study draws upon an online survey ( N = 446) with a between-subject design to situate consumers' level of systems thinking in relation to their altruistic values, an ecological worldview, beliefs and norms as well as intention to buy bio-based products. This study provides empirical evidence that a behavioral task in which consumers reflect on the consequences of their own consumption behavior is successful in activating a systems thinking perspective which, in turn, affects their intention to purchase bio-based products. Moreover, the relationship between systems thinking and purchase intention seems to be mediated by consumers' problem awareness, outcome efficacy and personal norms. The third study investigates the effectiveness of green nudges to increase consumer willingness to pay for bio-based products, using the case of bio-based plastic packaging. The study uses a discrete choice experiment ( N = 1019) with a between-subject-design to activate consumer pro-environmental values, worldviews, beliefs and norms by providing them with nature pictures, reflection questions, information and social proof, respectively. Results indicate that the strongest effects are generated when the nudging strategy matches the characteristic of consumers' cognitive style. The scientific and practical contributions of this thesis are multifold. From a scientific perspective, it extends the widely used value-beliefs-norms theory by contextual factors to understand farmers' interest in bio-economy practices and integrates systems thinking into the seminal norm-activation model to understand consumer intention to purchase bio-based products. In addition, it theoretically explores the interaction between green nudges and individual cognitive styles. Methodologically, this thesis develops and tests a treatment to activate systems thinking. Besides, it adds to existing empirical research by providing evidence for the role of systems thinking, the value-beliefs-norms theory and green nudges in the context of the bio-economy. This thesis, moreover, generates important practical implications for policymakers and industry representatives. In this vein, it presents scientifically sound strategies to speed up the diffusion of innovations, to influence the outcome of innovation-decisions and it shows which values and cognitive paradigms are relevant in the context of the bio-economy. For example, consumers' willingness to pay a price premium for bio-based plastic packaging might encourage companies to invest in this type of packaging. However, as the transition towards a bio-based economy rather depends on changing the underlying beliefs of the value chain actors, this thesis also provides insights about internal values and cognitive paradigms that need to be taught in schools and universities to generate a cultural transition starting with the young generations. ; Im letzten Jahrhundert dienten fossile Ressourcen als Grundlage zahlreicher technologischer Innovationen, die die deutsche Wirtschaft zu kontinuierlichem Wachstum und Wohlstand verholfen haben. Globale Probleme des 21. Jahrhundert, wie zum Beispiel der Klimawandel und das Erschöpfen fossiler Rohstoffe, zeigen allerdings immer mehr die ungewollten Konsequenzen einer fossil-basierten Wirtschaft für die Gesellschaft und Umwelt auf. Eine vielversprechende Strategie, um diese Probleme zu lösen stellt das Bioökonomie-Konzept dar, das darauf abzielt, fossile Ressourcen durch bio-basierte Materialien zu ersetzen. Diese Materialien werden aus Pflanzen, Tieren, Mikroorganismen und biologischem Abfall gewonnen. Das innovative Bioökonomie-Konzept stellt für die Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft eine ganze Reihe neuer Prozesse, Produkte und Dienstleistungen bereit (z.B. Bioenergie oder bio-basiertes Plastik). Der Erfolg der Bioökonomie hängt davon ab, ob die Akteure entlang der Wertschöpfungskette motiviert sind, diese Innovationen zu adoptieren. Da das volle wirtschaftliche Potential der Bioökonomie noch nicht ausgenutzt wird, ist es wichtig zu verstehen, welche Faktoren diese Akteure darin beeinflussen Innovationen im Kontext der Bioökonomie zu übernehmen. Daher untersucht diese Arbeit, inwiefern die Adoptionsentscheidung von Konsumenten und Landwirten durch deren innere Verhaltensmotivationen beeinflusst wird, wie z.B. durch ihre Werte, Glaubenssätze und Normen. Zudem nutzt diese Dissertation Erkenntnisse aus der Verhaltensökonomie, um zu testen, ob Nudging-Strategien die Akzeptanz von bioökonomischen Innovationen fördern. Um das Ziel dieser Arbeit zu erreichen, werden drei empirische Studien durchgeführt. Die erste Studie untersucht den Einfluss innerer Verhaltensmotivationen auf das Interesse von Landwirten, landwirtschaftliche Nebenprodukte für die Weiterverarbeitung in der Bioökonomie bereitzustellen. Dafür wurde eine Umfrage mit deutschen Obst- und Gemüsebauern ( N = 96) durchgeführt und anschließend in einem Strukturgleichungsmodell analysiert. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass umweltbewusste Werte, Glaubenssätze und Normen relevant sind, um das Interesse von Landwirten an bioökonomischen Praktiken vorherzusagen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen weiterhin, dass ein ökologisches Weltbild potentiell relevant dafür ist, wie Landwirte die exteren Bedingungen für den Wandel zu einer Bioökonomie wahrnehmen. Die zweite Studie erforscht den Einfluss einer systemischen Denkweise auf die Konsumentenakzeptanz von biobasierten Produkten. Die Studie nutzt ein Online-Experiment ( N = 446) mit einem between-subject Design, um zu verstehen wie systemisches Denken mit altruistischen Werten, einem ökologischen Weltbild, ökologischen Glaubenssätzen und Normen, sowie der Intention biobasierte Produkte zu kaufen, zusammenhängt. Die Ergebnisse signalisieren, dass eine Intervention, die Konsumenten dazu anhält über ihr Konsumverhalten und dessen Konsequenzen nachzudenken, eine systemische Denkweise triggert, die wiederum die Intention stärkt, bio-basierte Produkte zu kaufen. Außerdem zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass der Zusammenhang zwischen systemischem Denken und der Kaufintention durch die Variablen Problembewusstsein, wahrgenommene Ergebniswirksamkeit und die persönlichen Normen des Konsumenten erklärt werden kann. Die dritte Studie untersucht die Effektivität von Nudging-Strategien zur Steigerung der Zahlungsbereitschaft von Konsumenten für bio-basierte Verpackungen. Die Studie nutzt ein diskretes Entscheidungsexperiment ( N = 1019) mit einem between-subject Design. Dabei werden den Konsumenten Naturbilder, Reflexionsfragen, Videos oder normative Informationen dargeboten, um umweltbewusste Werte, Weltbilder, Glaubenssätze und Normen zu aktivieren. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die stärksten Effekte erzielt werden, wenn die Nudging-Strategie zum kognitiven Entscheidungsstil der Konsumenten passt. Der wissenschaftliche und praktische Nutzen der Ergebnisse ist vielfältig. Aus wissenschaftlicher Perspektive erweitert die Arbeit die Value-Belief-Norm Theorie um kontextuelle Faktoren zur Vorhersage des Interesses von Landwirten an bioökonomischen Prozessen. Außerdem integriert sie die Variable des systemischen Denkens in das Norm-Activation Modell, um die Intention biobasierte Produkte zu kaufen besser zu verstehen. Darüber hinaus erforscht die Arbeit den Zusammenhang zwischen Nudging-Strategien und kognitiven Entscheidungsstilen. Aus methodischer Perspektive entwickelt und testet diese Arbeit eine Intervention zur Aktivierung einer systemischen Denkweise. Außerdem liefert die Arbeit empirische Beweise für die Rolle des systemischen Denkens, der Value-Belief-Norm Theorie und Nudging-Strategien im Kontext der Bioökonomie. Diese Dissertation generiert darüber hinaus wichtige praktische Implikationen für politische Entscheidungsträger und Industrievertreter. Sie präsentiert wissenschaftlich fundierte Strategien, um die Verbreitung von Innovationen zu beschleunigen, um Innovationsentscheidungen zu beeinflussen und sie zeigt auf, welche Werte und kognitiven Paradigmen im Kontext der Bioökonomie relevant sind. Zum Beispiel signalisiert die Bereitschaft der Konsumenten einen höheren Preis für bio-basierte Plastikverpackungen zu zahlen, dass Unternehmen in diese Art von Verpackungen investieren könnten. Da der Übergang zu einer bio-basierten Wirtschaft jedoch eher von der Veränderung der zugrunde liegenden Glaubenssätze abhängt, bietet diese Arbeit zudem Erkenntnisse über interne Werte und kognitive Paradigmen, die in Schulen und Universitäten gelehrt werden sollten, um einen kulturellen Wandel anzustoßen.

An analysis of decision making and negotiation in international relations, this book offers a political-psychological model of the images that compose policymakers' world views. Dr. Cottam explores the limits these images impose on diplomatic adaptation to changes in the foreign policies of other states. She evaluates established models of politica

AbstractThree months after the first reported case of COVID‐19, it was declared a pandemic and many countries implemented full or partial lockdowns to protect human lives. The net economic impacts of such policies are still unclear, but with the warm season approaching in the Northern Hemisphere, weather may play a key role in helping governments to define better recovery strategies. Using a global cross‐region panel of daily data on 416 regions and 93 days, with multiple fixed effects, we explore the exogenous variations of weather variables to find that temperature reduces COVID‐19 transmission up to 8.98%. These effects are stronger in cold, arid and dry climates, diminishing propagation by 12.86%, 12.08% and 10.08%, respectively. Still, it is not clear whether climatic conditions can alone stop or slow the outbreak, but they should be included in models to predict future cases of the disease.

It is well understood that the president is a powerful agenda-setting influence in Congress. But how exactly does the president, who lacks any formal power in early stages of the legislative process, influence the congressional agenda? In The Presidential Agenda, Roger T. Larocca argues that the president's agenda-setting influence arises from two informal powers: the ability to communicate directly to voters and the ability to control the expertise of the many executive agencies that advise Congress on policy. Larocca develops a theoretical model that explains how the president can raise the public salience of issues in his major addresses, long accepted as one of the president's strongest agenda-setting tools. He also develops a theoretical model that explains how control over executive agency expertise yields a more reliable and persistent influence on the congressional agenda than presidential addresses. The Presidential Agenda tests these theoretical models with an innovative empirical study of presidential agenda setting. Using data from all House and Senate Commerce Committee bills from 1979 to 2002, Larocca converts information about bills into information about policy issues and then traces the path of presidential influence through the committee and floor stages of legislative consideration.