Suchergebnisse

Sri Lanka is in many respects a development success story. With economic growth averaging more than 7 percent a year over the past five years on top of an average growth of 6 percent the preceding five years, Sri Lanka has made notable strides towards the goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity (the 'twin goals'). The national poverty headcount rate declined from 22.7 to 6.7 percent between 2002 and 2012/13, while consumption per capita of the bottom 40 percent grew at 3.3 percent a year, compared to 2.8 percent for the total population. Other human development indicators are also impressive by regional and lower middle-income country standards. Sri Lanka has also succeeded in ending decades of internal conflict in 2009 and steps have been taken towards reconciliation. Sri Lanka's has had impressive development gains but there are strong indications that drivers of past progress are not sustainable. Solid economic growth, strong poverty reduction, overcoming internal conflict, effecting a remarkable democratic transition in recent months, and overall strong human development outcomes are a track record that would make any country proud. However, the country's inward looking growth model based on non-tradable sectors and domestic demand amplified by public investment cannot be expected to lead to sustained inclusive growth going forward. A systematic diagnostic points to fiscal, competitiveness, and inclusion challenges as well as cross-cutting governance and sustainability challenges as priority areas of focus for sustaining progress in ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

The objective of this paper is to understand the factors driving the location decisions of multinational corporations. The paper uses literature-review and expert-interview techniques to understand what cities can do to be best positioned to attract international capital.

The World Bank's assistance strategies showed strong client orientation and were aligned with Uganda's poverty reduction strategy. The programs were substantially effective in decentralization, public sector reform, growth and economic transformation, education, and water and sanitation. However, more could have been done to help counter the perception of increasing corruption, improve power supply, reduce transport costs, enhance agricultural productivity, and help with family planning and reproductive health. The AfDB's assistance was also relevant and aligned with the government's development goals. Its support substantially achieved its objectives for decentralization, public sector finance, growth and economic transformation, improved competitiveness, agriculture, and water and sanitation, as well as education and health. However, there were some shortcomings in the assistance provided for power and roads and in reducing corruption. This report evaluates World Bank and African Development Bank assistance to Uganda during 2001-07. The motivation to undertake a joint evaluation was the shift to a common strategic framework, the Uganda Joint Assistance Strategy (UJAS), to guide the formulation and delivery of their programs. Under a common strategic framework joint evaluation is, in principal, more cost effective than the equivalent separate evaluations, since at least some aspects of the evaluation can be done together. This also helps to reduce government transaction costs. The evaluation discusses the outcome of the support of each bank, rates each independently, noting that the two banks are of different size, capacity, and institutional setting. In addition, the two banks have programs that were not implemented jointly but in parallel, although they regularly engaged with one another as development partners. The outcome ratings for the two institutions are therefore not comparable and should not be used to imply that one institution did 'better' than the other.

This is the eleventh edition of the Kenya Economic Update. The special focus of this update examines the structural factors underpinning the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Drawing on recent firm-level data from the 2010 Industrial Census and the 2013 Enterprise Survey. It investigates the extent to which the sector's lack of dynamism reflects problems in Kenya's business environment, which compares poorly to regional neighbors' on several manufacturing-relevant dimensions. The report has four main messages: First, Kenya begins 2015 in a sound economic position. After growing an estimated 5.4 percent in 2014, its economy is poised to be among the fastest growing in the region, with growth projected at 6.0 percent in 2015, 6.6 percent in 2016, and 7.0 percent in 2017. Second, the external sector remains weak and vulnerable, as import growth continue to outpace export growth and short-term flows finance the current account deficit. The large deficit points to underlying structural weaknesses in Kenya's economy, which need to be addressed. Third, Kenya needs to increase the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector so that it can grow, export, and create much-needed jobs. As a share of GDP, Kenya's manufacturing sector has been stagnant in recent years, and it has lost international market share; lastly, the weak business environmentis a key constraint for the manufacturing sector. Obstacles to doing business affect this sector more than many others because manufacturing needs access to capital for investments, infrastructure to import inputs and export and distribute finished products, affordable and reliable electricity to produce, labor to man operations, and fair and streamlined regulations and trade policies that allow firms to compete.

This doctoral thesis examines how European merger control law is applied to the energy sector and to which extent its application may facilitate the liberalisation of the electricity, natural gas and petroleum industries so that only those concentrations will be cleared that honour the principles of the liberalisation directives (IEMD and IGMD ). In its communication on an energy policy for Europe, adopted on 10/01/2007, the Commission emphasized that a real internal European energy market is essential to meet Europe's three energy objectives, i.e. competitiveness to cut costs for citizens and undertakings to foster energy efficiency and investment, sustainability including emissions trading, and security of supply with high standards of public service obligations (Art. 106 TFEU). The EU issued three pre-liberalisation directives since the 1990s. Dissatisfied with the existing monopolistic structures, i.e. in Germany through demarcation and exclusive concession agreements for the supply of electricity and natural gas, which were until 1998 exempted from the cartel prohibition provision (§ 1 GWB), and the prevalence of exclusive rights on the energy markets, the Commission triggered infringement proceedings against four member states under Art. 258 TFEU. The CJEU confirmed that the Commission has the power to abolish monopoly rights under certain circumstances and the rulings had the effect of convincing the member states to enter into negotiations for an opening up of energy markets owing to the internal market energy liberalization directives of 1996 / 1998 / 2003 / 2009 / 2019 (IEMD and IGMD) . The core element of the IEMD and IGMD is to abolish exclusive rights and offer primarily at least large industrial electricity and gas consumers to choose their supplier (market opening for eligible consumers) and to grant negotiated or regulated third party access to transmission and distribution grids so to address natural monopolies. The second liberalization package of 2003 brought a widening of market opening and acceleration of pace of market opening to a greater number of eligible customers (all non-household consumers since July 2004 and all consumers since July 2007) and an increase in the provisions on management and legal unbundling. In parallel, two regulations regulate the access to cross-border electricity infrastructure (interconnectors) and the third party access to gas transmission networks. Two further Directives addressed the security of natural gas and power supply and a third deals with energy end use efficiency and services , a fourth dealt with the promotion of co-generation and a fifths covers marine environmental policy (Marine Strategy Framework Directive in combination with the Hydrocarbons-Licensing Directive ) backed by the public procurement directive in the energy sector. A regulation covers energy statistics. The implementation of the second energy package was slow and the Commission launched infringement proceedings against 5 member states in front of the CJEU (Art. 258, 256 TFEU). The 3rd energy package of 2009 addressed ownership unbundling of key-infrastructure ownership and energy wholesale and retail supply consisting of three regulations and two directives, deals with independent regulators, an agency for the cooperation of energy regulators (ACER) and cross-border cooperation (the European Network for transmission system operators for electricity and gas [ENTSO-E/G] and a regulation on cross-border grid access for electricity and natural gas. Another new regulation deals with market integrity and transparency . Hence, new regulations regulate guidelines on electricity balancing, congestion management, long-term capacity allocation, the code for grid access and transmission system operation . Other regulations address the guidelines for a European cross-border energy infrastructure, which has to be interpreted in the context of European environmental impact assessment law, the submission of data in electricity markets, establish a network code on demand connection , rule on a network code for grid access for direct current transmission systems, define guidelines on electricity transmission system operation, regulate a network code on electricity emergency , deal with security of natural gas supply and establish a programme to aid economic recovery by granting financial assistance. Finally, Directives promote the usage of renewable energies, regulate common oil stocks, the safety of offshore oil and gas production and the quality of petrol and diesel fuels. The 4th liberalization package consists of a new IEMD2019 and IGMD2019, of a new regulation on European cross-border electricity trade, of a regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector, of a new agency for the cooperation of European energy regulators, addresses energy efficiency and rules on good governance in the energy union. Since 2008, the Art. 194 I-II TFEU governs the ordinary legislation procedure in the energy sector (internal market in energy, security of energy supply, energy efficiency, energy saving, renewable energies, interconnection of energy grids) notwithstanding of unanimous decision making in case of energy taxation matters (Art. 194 III TFEU). A brief analysis of the economic implications of concentrations is followed by an assessment of the evolution of European merger control law under Art. 66 ECSCT, Art. 101 and 102 TFEU, the merger control regulation of 1989 and its significant amendments of 1997 and 2004. Then, the theoretical findings are contrasted to the results of recent merger proceedings in the energy sector with a focus on the VEBA/VIAG decision. Several deficiencies are established which limit the efficacy of merger control as a tool of offsetting shortcomings in the secondary EC law with regard to the liberalisation of the electricity and gas supply industry (IEMD and IGMD). Commitments proposed by the parties of a given concentration and accepted by the Commission as being sufficient to remedy a serious potential of dominance may only be of subsidiary relevance to the liberalisation of sectors owing to a number of analytical and practical drawbacks. One dominant drawback relates to the fact that the commitments depend always on parties' proposals and can never be imposed ex officio. Others relate to the blunt authorisations provided by the wording of Art. 6 and 8 MR1997 and MR2004 as to the implementation of undertakings. With regard to acquisitions of U.K. regional electricity companies by EdF, it is elaborated that the current merger control law leaves no scope for reciprocity considerations regarding acquisitions by incumbent companies in liberalised markets even though the acquirer is a protected public undertaking. Moreover, it is established that different decisions apply inconsistent market definitions. By means of the VEBA/VIAG and RWE/VEW cases, the question is addressed which causes are responsible for the established analytical and practical deficiencies of merger control in the energy sector. It is stated that the weaknesses of the IEMD 2009/72/EC and IGMD 2009/73/EC are partly responsible for weak undertakings which do not sufficiently remove the scope for dominance on the affected markets and which do not rule out any possibility of impediments of effective negotiated or regulated TPA and do not remove any commercial incentive of the grid subsidiaries of the vertically integrated companies as to access which discriminates between intra and extra group applicants. It is reported that another argument relates to the limited scope that the Commission has if it wants to remedy deficiencies of written primary law owing to the extraordinary nature of the implied powers doctrine based on the principle of constitutional state. Adverse political influence against competition authorities is also judged. Further, it is analysed that accidental regulation based on incidental provisions imposed on undertakings which may or not implement a concentration is by no means a consistent and non-discriminatory and predictable tool to overcome drawbacks of primary or secondary European law in a given sector owing to the democratic principle and the constitutional state doctrine. It is discussed that secondary legislation with regard to energy networks is inter alia restricted by Art. 345 TFEU and provisions of national constitutions which protect property rights against dis-proportionate expropriations or re-definitions of property. Further, legal authorisations of said calibre will have to be connected to a system of state liability law. Adverse political pressures are considered. The same is true for egoistic national policies which abstain from transnational task forces in order to settle difficulties and disputes. Furthermore, the adverse effect of different stages of the maturity of domestic markets, different consumer patterns and a potential isolation of the system is not neglected, because these conditions make it more difficult to apply consistent standards as to the appropriate market definition in order to facilitate harmonisation. The implementation of the VEBA/VIAG merger is discussed, as the former was further complicated owing to specifically evaluated circumstances which were difficult to predict. Nevertheless, the Commission is not exempted from the duty to take due care concerning potential impediments as to the realisation of parties' commitments. In contrast to the negative aspects, it can be highlighted that the Commission quickly realised flaws of the energy liberalisation project as expressed by the present form of the IEMD and IGMD. Consequently, the co-ordinative and innovative mechanisms of Florence and Madrid were created in order to boost the development of effective cross border trade - i.e. tariff systems and interconnector congestion management. It will be concluded that undertakings put forward by the parties and accepted by the Commission should be restricted to a subsidiary legal instrument, only applied if strictly necessary to overcome certain detrimental aspects of given concentrations in order to provide a hint for the legislator, to specify its legislation. Competition as a de-central distributor of risk, wealth and power will be extended to its maximum extent, if wholesale consumers benefit from lower energy prices which allow greater productivity of European products on the world markets in combination with higher environmental standards owing to modern, cost-efficient plants. A successful implementation will be described by liquid spot markets for power accompanied by tools of financial risk management like forwards, futures and options. These will be valuable indicators of efficient liberalisation of the European electricity and gas supply industries. ; Diese Doktorarbeit untersucht wie das Europäische Fusionskontrollverfahrensrecht auf den Energiesektor angewendet wird und in welchem Ausmaß seine Anwendung die Liberalisierung der Elektrizitäts-, Gas- und Erdölmärkte unterstützt, so dass nur solche Unternehmenszusammenschlüsse freigegeben wurden, die die Prinzipien der Liberalisierungsrechtsakte (Binnenmarktstromrichtlinie und Binnenmarktsgasrichtlinie). In ihrer Mitteilung über eine Energiepolitik für Europa, angenommen am 10.01.2007, betonte die Kommission, dass ein realer Energiebinnenmarkt essentiell ist, um Europas drei Energieziele zu erreichen, d.h. Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, um Kosten für Bürger und Unternehmen zu senken, um Energieeffizienz und Investitionen zu fördern, und Nachhaltigkeit, darin eingeschlossen ein Emissionshandel, und Energieversorgungssicherheit mit hohen Standards von öffentlichen Dienstleistungspflichten (Art. 106 AEUV). Die EU erließ drei Prä-Liberalisierungsrechtsakte seit den 1990er Jahren . Unzufrieden mit den existierenden monopolartigen Strukturen, d.h. in Deutschland durch Demarkationsverträge und ausschließliche Konzessionsverträge für die Versorgung von Strom und Erdgas, die bis 1998 vom allgemeinen Kartellverbot ausgenommen waren (§ 1 GWB), und die Vorherrschaft von ausschließlichen Rechten auf den Energiemärkten, löste die Kommission Vertragsverletzungsverfahren gegen vier Mitgliedstaaten gemäß Art. 258 AEUV . Der Gerichtshof bestätigte, dass die Kommission das Recht hat, ausschließliche Rechte unter gewissen Bedingungen abzuschaffen, und die Urteile hatten den Effekt, die Mitgliedstaaten zu überzeugen, in Verhandlungen für eine Marktöffnung der Energiemärkte gemäß den Energiebinnenmarktrichtlinien von 1996, 1998, 2003, 2009 und 2019 einzutreten (Strombinnenmarktrichtlinie und Gasbinnenmarktrichtlinie). Das Kernelement der Strombinnenmarktrichtlinie und Gasbinnenmarktsrichtlinie ist es, ausschließliche Rechte abzuschaffen und primär zumindest großen industriellen Strom und Gasverbrauchern das Recht einzuräumen, ihren Versorger frei zu wählen (Marktöffnung für auswählbare Verbraucher) und einen verhandelten oder regulierten Drittparteizugang zu Übertragungsnetzen und Verteilungsnetzen zu gewähren, um natürliche Monopole zu regulieren. Das zweite Liberalisierungspaket von 2003 brachte eine erweiterte Marktöffnung und Beschleunigung der Geschwindigkeit der Marktöffnung zu einer größeren Zahl von auswählbaren Verbrauchern (alle Nicht-Haushaltskunden seit Juli 2004 und alle Konsumenten ab Juli 2007) und eine Ausweitung der Vorschrift über Management- und rechtliche Entflechtung . Parallel dazu regeln zwei Verordnungen den Zugang zu grenzüberschreitenden Elektrizitätsinfrastrukturen (Interkonnektoren) und den Drittparteizugang zu Gas Übertragungsnetzwerken. Zwei weitere Richtlinien adressieren die Versorgungssicherheit von Erdgas und Strom und eine dritte behandelt die Energieendnutzungseffizienz und Dienstleistungen , eine vierte Richtlinie beschäftigte sich mit der Förderung von Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung und eine fünfte deckt Meeresumweltschutzpolitik ab (Marine Strategie Rahmenrichtlinie in Verbindung mit der Kohlenwasserstoff-Lizensierungsrichtlinie, verstärkt durch die Richtlinie über das öffentliche Auftragswesen im Energiesektor. Eine Verordnung behandelt Energiestatistiken. Die Umsetzung des zweiten Energiepakets war langsam und die Kommission leitete Vertragsverletzungsverfahren gegen 5 Mitgliedstaaten ein beim Europäischen Gerichtshof (Art. 258, 256 TFEU). Das dritte Energiepaket von 2009 adressierte die eigentumsrechtliche Entflechtung von Schlüssel-Infrastrukturen und die Energiegroßhandelsversorgung und die Kleinkundenenergieversorgung bestehend aus drei Verordnungen und zwei Richtlinien, beschäftigt sich mit unabhängigen Energieregulierungsbehörden, einer Agentur für die Zusammenarbeit von Energieregulierungsbehörden (ACER) und der grenzüberschreitenden Kooperation (das Europäische Netzwerk für Übertragungsnetzwerkoperatoren für Strom und Gas [ENTSO-E/G] und eine Verordnung über grenzüberschreitenden Netzzugang für Strom und Erdgas . Eine andere Verordnung behandelt die Marktintegrität und Transparenz. Außerdem regulieren neue Verordnungen Grundzüge der Strom-Balancierung, Verstopfungsmanagement, langfristige Kapazitätszuweisung, den Kodex für den Netzzugang und die Operation des Übertragungsnetzes. Andere Verordnungen regulieren die Grundsätze für eine europäische grenzüberschreitende Energie-Infrastruktur, welche im Kontext des europäischen Umweltverträglichkeitsprüfungsrechts interpretiert werden muss, die Einreichung von Daten über Strommärkte, etablieren einen Netzwerkkodex über Nachfrageverbindung, regeln einen Netzwerkkodex für den Netzzugang für Gleichstromübertragungssysteme, definieren Richtlinien über Stromübertragungssystemoperation, regulieren einen Netzwerkkodex über Stromversorgungsnotfälle, behandeln Erdgasversorgungssicherheit und etablieren ein Programm, um der ökonomischen Wiederherstellung zu helfen, indem finanzielle Hilfen gewährt werden. Schließlich fördern Richtlinien die Nutzung von erneuerbaren Energien, regulieren gemeinsame Erdölvorräte, die Sicherheit der Hochsee Erdöl- und Erdgasproduktion und die Qualität von Benzin und Diesel Kraftstoffen. Das vierte Liberalisierungspaket besteht aus einer neuen Strombinnenmarktrichtlinie 2019 und einer Erdgasbinnenmarktrichtlinie 2019, aus einer neuen Verordnung über europäischen grenzüberschreitenden Stromhandel, aus einer Verordnung übrer Risikovorbereitung im Stromsektor, aus einer neuen Agentur für die Zusammenarbeit der Europäischen Energie-Regulatoren, adressiert Energieeffizienz und regelt die gute Geschäftsführung in der Energieunion. Seit 2008 regelt Art. 194 I-II AUEV das ordentliche Gesetzgebungsverfahren im Energiesektor (Binnenmarkt für Energie, Energieversorgungssicherheit, Energieeffzienz, Energieeinsparung, erneuerbare Energien und die Interkonnektion von Energienetzen) unabhängig vom einstimmigen Entscheiden im Bereich von Energiebesteuerungen (Art. 194 III AEUV). Eine kurze Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Implikation von Unternehmenszusammenschlüssen folgt die Untersuchung der Evolution des Europäischen Fusionskontrollverfahrensrechts gemäß dem ehemaligen Art. 66 EGKSV, Art. 101 and 102 AEUV, der Fusionskontrollverfahrensverordnung von 1989 und ihrer signifikanten Änderungen von 1997 und 2004. Dann werden die theoretischen Ergebnisse den Resultaten der Fusionskontrollverfahren im Energiesektor gegenübergestellt mit einem Schwerpunkt auf der VEBA/VIAG Entscheidung. Mehrere Schwachstellen werden herausgestellt, welche die Effektivität der Fusionskontrolle im Energiesektor herausstellen, die die Effektivität der Fusionskontrolle als ein Werkzeug zum Ausgleich der Schwachstellen im Sekundärrecht der EU mit Bezug auf die Liberalisierung der Strom- und Erdgasversorgungsindustrien mindern (Elektrizitätsbinnenmarktrichtlinie und Erdgasbinnenmarktrichtlinie). Verpflichtungszusagen auf Vorschlag der Partien eines Unternehmenszusammenschlusses, die von der Kommission angenommen worden sind, um hinreichend zu sein, um ein seriöses Potential von Marktbeherrschung zu adressieren können nur auf hilfsweise Relevanz zur Liberalisierung on Wirtschaftssektoren dienen gemäß einer Anzahl von analytischen und praktischen Nachteilen. Ein relevanter Nachteil bezieht sich auf das Faktum, dass die Verpflichtungszusagen der Parteien immer auf den Parteivorschlägen fußen und dass sie niemals ex officio auferlegt werden können. Andere Nachteile beziehen sich auf die grobe Autorisierung der Kommission, wie sie nahegelegt wird durch den Wortlaut von Art. 6 and 8 Fusionskontrollverordnung 1997 und 2004 bezogen auf die Umsetzung von Nebenbestimmungen. Mit Bezug auf die Akquisition von regionalen Stromunternehmen im Vereinigten Königreich durch EdF wird herausgearbeitet, dass das gegenwärtige Fusionskontrollverfahrensrecht keinen Ansatz für Reziprozitätserwägungen lässt mit Bezug auf Akquisitionen durch amtierende Unternehmen in liberalisierten Märkten, auch wenn der Erwerber eine geschützte öffentliche Unternehmung ist. Außerdem wird herausgearbeitet, dass unterschiedliche Entscheidungen inkonsistente Marktdefinitionen herausarbeitet. Durch die VEBA/VIAG and RWE/VEW Entscheidungen wird die Frage beantwortet, welche Ursachen verantwortlich sind für die etablierten analytischen und praktischen Nachteile der Fusionskontrolle im Energiesektor. Es wird herausgestellt, dass die Schwächen der Elektrizitätsbinnenmarktrichtlinie 2009/72/EG und der Erdgasbinnenmarktrichtlinie 2009/73/EG zu gewissen Anteilen verantwortlich sind für schwache Nebenbestimmungen, die nicht hinreichend den Anwendungsbereich für Marktbeherrschung auf den betroffenen Märkten eliminieren und die nicht jedwede Möglichkeit von Erschwernissen des verhandelten oder regulierten Drittparteizugangs zu Infrastrukturen ausschließen und welche nicht den kommerziellen Anreiz der Netztochtergesellschaften der vertikal integrierten Unternehmen entfernen, zu unterscheiden zwischen Intra- und Extra-Gruppen Netzzugangspetenten. Es wird geschildert, dass sich ein anderes Argument auf den limitierten Anwendungsbereich bezieht, dass die Kommission, wenn sie es möchte, um Nachteile zu adressieren des primären Gemeinschaftsrechts gemäß der außergewöhnlichen Natur der impIizierten Befugnisse Doktrin basieren auf dem Prinzip des Rechtsstaates. Gegenteilige politische Einflussnahme gegen Wettbewerbsbehörden wird außerdem untersucht. Darüber hinaus wird analysiert, dass akzidentielle Regulierung basierend auf Nebenbestimmungen, die vielleicht oder nicht einen Unternehmenszusammenschluss implementieren unter keinem Gesichtspunkt ein konsistentes und vorhersehbares Werkzeug ist, um Nachteile des primären oder sekundären Europäischen Rechts in einem gegebenen Sektor zu überwinden gemäß dem Demokratieprinzip und dem Rechtsstaatsprinzip. Es wird diskutiert, dass sekundäre europäische Rechtssetzung mit Bezug auf Energienetzwerke unter anderem durch Art. 345 AEUV begrenzt wird und dass Vorschriften nationaler Verfassungen, die Eigentumsrechte garantieren, gegen die unverhältnismäßige Enteignung oder Inhalts- und Schrankenbestimmungen des Eigentum schützen . Darüber hinaus werden rechtliche Ermächtigungen des besagten Kalibers gewürdigt und mit einem System von Staatsverantwortlichkeitsrecht verbunden. Gegenteilige politische Drücke wurden erwogen. Das gleiche trifft zu für egoistische nationale Politiken, die von nationalen Taskforces Abstand nehmen, um Schwierigkeiten und Streitigkeiten zu adressieren. Außerdem wird der gegenteilige Effekt von unterschiedlichen Phasen der Reife häuslicher Märkte, unterschiedlichem Verbraucherverhalten und einer möglichen Isolation des Systems untersucht und nicht vernachlässigt, weil diese Bedingungen es schwieriger machen, konsistente Standards mit Bezug auf die sachgerechte Marktdefinition anzuwenden, um die Harmonisierung zu erleichtern. Die Einflüsse der VEBA/VIAG Fusion wird diskutiert, weil diese Entscheidung weiter erschwert war und kompliziert wurde durch spezielle ausgewertete Umstände, die schwierig vorherzusehen waren. Dennoch war die Kommission nicht befreit von der Verpflichtung, um notwendige Sorgfalt anzuwenden bezogen auf potentielle Erschwernisse bezogen auf die Realisierung der Verpflichtungszusagen der Parteien. Im Gegensatz zu den negativen Aspekten kann herausgestellt werden, dass die Kommission schnell Schwachstellen des Enerigeliberalisierungsprojektes erkannt hat, wie es durch die gegenwärtige Form der Elektrizitätsbinnenmarktrichtlinie und der Erdgasbinnenmarktrichtlinie geprägt wird. Konsequenterweise wurden die koordinierenden und innovativen Mechanismen der Foren von Florenz und Madrid geschaffen, um die Entwicklung effektiven grenzüberschreitenden Energiehandels voranzutreiben, d.h. Tarifsysteme und Interkonnektorenverstopfungsmanagements. Es wird der Schluss gezogen, dass Unternehmen, vorangetrieben durch die Parteien und angenommen durch die Kommission, davon ausgenommen wurden sollen, ein subsidiäres rechtliches Instrument zu begrenzen, um gewisse schädliche Aspekte einer gegebenen Unternehmenskonzentration zu überwinden, um für einen Hinweis and den Gesetzgeber zu sorgen, seine Gesetzgebung zu spezifizieren. Wettbewerb als ein dezentrales Verfahren zur Verteilung von Risiko, Wohlstand und Macht wird ausgedehnt zu seinem maximalen Ertrag, wenn Großhandelsverbraucher von geringeren Energiepreisen profitieren, die eine gesteigerte Produktivität Europäischer Produkte auf den Weltmärkten bewirken in Kombination mit höheren Umweltstandards durch den Einsatz moderner, kosteneffzienter Produktionsstätten. Eine erfolgreiche Implementierung wird beschrieben durch liquide Spot-Märkte für Energie, begleitet durch Werkzeuge des finanziellen Risikomanagements wie Forward-Derivate, Future-Derivate und Optionen. Diese wurden wertvolle Indikatoren einer effizienten Liberalisierung der Europäischen Elektrizitäts- und Erdgasversorgungsindustrien sein.

This Action Plan is based on the World Bank's Technical Note on Consumer Protection and Financial Literacy in Azerbaijan published in June 2009. The Action Plan focuses on the Legal and Regulatory Issues of the Technical Note's Key Findings and Recommendations, proposing specific actions for Azerbaijani authorities, financial institutions and consumer organizations so that consumer protection is strengthened and made more effective and efficient. The Action Plan should be the base upon which specific legal changes should be drafted and against which their implementation should be evaluated. Beside the Technical Note itself, the Action Plan draws on best international practices and experiences of regulators and supervisors that have tried to introduce improved consumer protection in their countries. It should also be noted that a well-balanced consumer protection regime serves also the interest of financial institutions as it provides them with better informed clients and also makes sure that clients understand their obligations under the contracts they signed. The Action Plan is divided into five parts that cover the key areas based on the recommendations of the Technical Note: (a) Legal Mandate, (b) Effective Supervision and Regulation, (c) Disclosure of Information, (d) Business Practices, and (e) Dispute Resolution.

Forschungskonzept Das Nachhaltigkeitsleitbild der Agenda 21 und die damit verknüpften Rollenerwartungen an die Privatwirtschaft sind ein Bezugsrahmen der vorliegenden Doktorarbeit. Die Agenda 21, ein zentrales Dokument der UN-Konferenz für Umwelt und Entwicklung (UNCED 1992), und Dokumente der Folgekonferenzen weisen der Privatwirtschaft eine zentrale Rolle bei der Verwirklichung nachhaltiger Entwicklung zu: Wirtschaftsunternehmen sollen Wertschöpfung auf der Grundlage umweltverträglichen Umgangs mit natürlichen Res-sourcen erreichen. Als verantwortungsvolle Unternehmen sollen sie die Interessen ihrer Anspruchsgruppen berücksichtigen, und diese Gruppen sollen ihrerseits die Privatwirt-schaft bei der Realisierung nachhaltiger Entwicklung unterstützen. Regierungsunabhängige Umweltorganisationen erwarten von der Privatwirtschaft umwelt-verträglichen Umgang mit natürlichen Ressourcen und üben entsprechend Druck auf Unternehmen aus. Die Literatur dokumentiert jedoch Konflikte zwischen dem Rollenver-ständnis der Privatwirtschaft und den Erwartungen internationaler Organisationen und zivilgesellschaftlicher Anspruchsgruppen. Seitens der Unternehmen bestehen Zweifel, ob die Anforderungen dieser Akteure angemessen sind und inwieweit sie die ihnen zuge-wiesene Verantwortung übernehmen sollen. Auf diese Problematik bezieht sich die vor-liegende, 2006 bis 2008 durchgeführte qualitative empirische Untersuchung. Das Ziel der Forschungsarbeit war, den Wissensstand zum Umgang kleiner bis mittelgro-ßer Produktionsunternehmen mit ihren Rohstoff liefernden natürlichen Ressourcen zu erweitern - ihrer Rolle in Marktketten, ihrer Beziehungen zu Stakeholdern und die Berück-sichtigung natürlicher Ressourcen durch ihr Management. Als Beispiel ausgewählt wur-den Holzmöbel erzeugende Unternehmen (Möbelhersteller), eine mittelständische Bran-che der holzverarbeitenden Industrie. Da Möbelproduktion hohe Wertschöpfung aus Roh-holz ermöglicht, erschien dieses Beispiel aufschlussreich im Hinblick auf die allgemeine Annahme der Agenda 21, hohe ökonomische Wertschöpfung aus Holz lasse Impulse für nachhaltige Waldwirtschaft erwarten. Die Untersuchung wurde in Regionen mit unter-schiedlichen gesellschaftlichen, volkswirtschaftlichen und insbesondere forst- und holz-wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen durchgeführt. Forschungsfragen waren: Wie stellt sich "Forst" aus der Sicht von Möbelherstellern dar? In welcher Beziehung stehen Möbelhersteller zu ihren Anspruchsgruppen und wie kom-munizieren sie "Forst" gegenüber diesen Gruppen? Wie berücksichtigen Möbelhersteller "Forst" in ihren Entscheidungen? Der Verfasser stellt diese Forschungsfragen unter den Oberbegriff "Forstrationalität". Das Konstrukt "Forstrationalität" umreißt, wie Entscheidungsträger in der Holzindustrie Wald-bewirtschaftung als ihre Rohstoffbasis wahrnehmen und in Entscheidungen einbeziehen. Es umfasst alle Aspekte der Wahrnehmung und Interpretation sowie des Verhaltens holz-verarbeitender Industrieunternehmen bezüglich ihrer Rohstoffquelle "Forst". Grundlagen hierfür sind Theorien der Ressourcenabhängigkeit (Pfeffer und Salancik 1978/2003; Steimle, 2008) und des Sensemaking (Weick 1995, 2001). Informationen zur Beantwortung der Forschungsfragen wurden in drei Zentren der Möbel-industrie mit unterschiedlichen gesellschaftlichen und forstlichen Rahmenbedingungen in Brasilien und in Deutschland gewonnen: in Rio Branco do Acre (RBA) im brasilianischen Amazonasgebiet; in São Bento do Sul (SBS) in Südbrasilien und in Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) in Deutschland. Die drei Regionen in zwei Ländern vergleichende Feldforschung stellte besondere Anforderungen an die Forschungsmethodik. Vorgehen und Aufbau der Erhebungsinstrumente waren in den drei Regionen identisch: Grundlegendes empirisches Wissen vermittelten Inhaltsanalysen von Fachzeitschriften der Möbelwirtschaft (1) sowie die Auswertung von Sekundärinformationen (2). Telefonische Leitfadeninterviews mit Ex-perten (3) beleuchteten die Unternehmensumfelder und gaben allgemeine Hinweise zum Verhalten von Entscheidungsträgern der Möbelindustrie. Das Spektrum der "Forstrationa-litäten" der Entscheidungsträger erschloss sich im persönlichen Kontakt bei Betriebsbesu-chen; in jeder Region wurden zwei Hersteller von Massivholzmöbeln und ein Hersteller von Möbeln aus Holzwerkstoffen ausgewählt (4). Ergebnisse der Fachzeitschriftenanalyse Die quantitative Inhaltsanalyse von Fachzeitschriften diente dazu, das Gesamtspektrum der für den Wirtschaftszweig Möbelindustrie relevanten Fachthemen kennen zu lernen und die relative Bedeutung der Themenfelder "Umweltschutz" sowie "Waldressour-cen/Forstwirtschaft" einzuschätzen. Zusammenfassend konnten folgende Schlüsse gezo-gen werden: 1. Die Themenfelder "Umwelt" und "Forst" interessieren in der Möbelindustrie, erhalten aber in der Fachpresse weniger Raum als Themenfelder wie Wirtschaft, Technologie und Wettbewerb. 2. Im Themenfeld "Umwelt" sind in Deutschland wie in Brasilien Aspekte des eigenen Produktionsstandortes (innerbetrieblicher Umweltschutz) die bedeutendsten Themen der Möbelindustrie. 3. In der brasilianischen Möbelindustrie stehen "forst"-bezogene Aspekte stärker im Fo-kus als in Deutschland. Ergebnisse der regionalen Fallstudien Ergebnisse der Untersuchungsphasen (2) bis (4) stellt die Dissertation in Form von drei regionalen Fallstudien mit identischer Gliederung vor: a) Rahmenbedingungen der Möbel-hersteller b) Nicht-marktliche Anspruchsgruppen c) Lieferanten von Holzprodukten d) Mö-belabnehmer e) Interaktion der Möbelhersteller untereinander f) Forst- und Umweltmana-gement. Die regionalen Fallstudien bestätigen die Einsicht aus der Fachzeitschriftenanalyse, dass die spezifische Situation des gesamten regionalen Sektors "Forst- und Holzwirtschaft" die brasilianischen Möbelhersteller stärker prägt als die in NRW. So fanden in RBA in jünge-rer Zeit einschneidende forst- und umweltpolitische sowie institutionelle Veränderungen statt, die neue Rahmenbedingungen für alle holzbe- und -verarbeitenden Unternehmen gesetzt haben. In der Region SBS beschäftigt "Forst" die Möbelhersteller ebenso wie an-dere Zweige der Holzwirtschaft wegen eingetretener oder in der Zukunft erwarteter Holz-knappheiten sowie angesichts staatlicher Kontrolle der Verwendung von Holz aus legaler Waldnutzung. In NRW werden hingegen die einheimische Waldbewirtschaftung ebenso wie die Verarbeitung von Vorprodukten aus nichttropischen Holzarten als unproblematisch wahrgenommen, forstliche Themen erscheinen nicht als kritisch im Makroumfeld der Mö-belindustrie. In NRW wie in SBS dominiert die Auseinandersetzung mit gesamt- und bran-chenwirtschaftlichen Kerndaten, mit nationalen und internationalen Markttrends sowie mit technologischen Entwicklungen die Agenda der Möbelhersteller. Die Möbelhersteller unterliegen der Aufsicht von Umweltbehörden. Die Kontrolle des in-nerbetrieblichen Umweltschutzes, zum Teil verknüpft mit Arbeitsschutz, zeigte sich in al-len drei Regionen als Schwerpunkt der Aktivität dieser Behörden. Anders als in Deutsch-land unterliegt in Brasilien die Holzbeschaffung durch holzbe- und -verarbeitende Betriebe behördlicher Kontrolle. Die Fachverbände der Möbelindustrie in allen drei Fallstudienregionen definieren als ihre zentrale Aufgabe die Vertretung der Interessen ihrer Mitgliedsunternehmen gegenüber Politik und Gesellschaft. In beiden brasilianischen Fallstudienregionen, in denen forstbe-zogene Probleme die Möbelindustrie intensiv beschäftigen, sehen die Möbelindustriever-bände forstbezogene Angelegenheiten auch als ihre Aufgabe. In RBA agiert der Verband mit dem Ziel, die behördliche Registrierung von Möbelproduzenten des informellen Sek-tors voranzubringen und diese zur Verarbeitung von Holz aus legaler Waldnutzung zu verpflichten. In SBS haben die Möbelfachverbände in Perioden der Holzknappheit der Entwicklung der regionalen Forstwirtschaft und der Holzversorgung der Möbelindustrie große Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet; zur Zeit der Untersuchung drängten andere wirtschaftli-che Probleme die Waldthematik in den Hintergrund. Die durch die Forschungsarbeit erfassten Möbelhersteller stehen selten in direktem Kon-takt mit privaten Umweltorganisationen. Sie nehmen jedoch wahr, dass diese Organisa-tionen die Rahmenbedingungen der Möbelindustrie durch Verbraucherkampagnen, An-forderungen an die ersten Stufen der Forst-Holz-Wertschöpfungsketten und durch politi-sches Lobbying indirekt beeinflussen. Die Abhängigkeit der Möbelhersteller von Holzproduktlieferanten variiert in den drei Un-tersuchungsregionen. In NRW ist diese Abhängigkeit schwach ausgeprägt, weil die Mö-belhersteller Vorprodukte regional wie überregional problemlos einkaufen können und weil auch große Holzlieferanten Ansprüche der Möbelindustrie etwa bezüglich der Qualität, Abmessungen und Vorfertigung von Schnittholz und Holzwerkstoffen berücksichtigen. In Brasilien stellt sich die Situation anders dar. In SBS haben große bis mittelgroße Möbel-hersteller wegen der Unsicherheit der Holzversorgung und der Qualität von Vorprodukten aus Holz Schritte zur Rückwärtsintegration unternommen (eigene Sägewerke, vereinzelt eigene Bewirtschaftung von Kiefern-Plantagen) oder alternative Vorproduktquellen ge-sucht. In RBA stellt die behördlich kontrollierte Forderung, nur Holz aus "ordentlicher Waldwirtschaft" zu verarbeiten, die zu einem großen Teil staatlich geförderten Möbelher-steller des formellen Sektors vor Probleme. Denn ein hoher Anteil des entsprechenden regional verfügbaren Tropenholzes wird in Form von Holzhalbwaren in andere Regionen Brasiliens verkauft oder exportiert. Für die Möbelhersteller in RBA sind die Einkaufspreise hochwertiger Holzvorprodukte, insbesondere wenn diese aus zertifiziertem Holz erzeugt werden, deshalb in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen, während die Möbelpreise aufgrund der Konkurrenz zahlreicher kleiner informeller Produzenten, aber auch durch das Angebot kostengünstig produzierter Serienmöbel aus Südbrasilien unter Druck stehen. Nur wenige gut organisierte Möbelhersteller in RBA scheinen bislang tragfähige Strategien zu verfol-gen, um diesem Dilemma zu begegnen. Die Beziehung von Möbelherstellern zu ihren Abnehmern ist in allen drei Fallstudienregio-nen durch Abhängigkeiten der Möbelhersteller geprägt. In RBA hängen formell registrierte Möbelhersteller stark von öffentlichen Aufträgen ab. In SBS sind Möbelhersteller von der Serienproduktion für den Exportmarkt abhängig; vielfach geben Auslandskunden die Mo-delle vor und haben großen Einfluss auf die Möbelpreisbestimmung. Beim Möbelabsatz im Inland stehen die Hersteller in NRW wie in SBS großen Einkaufsverbänden oder Kon-zernunternehmen des Möbeleinzelhandels gegenüber. In allen drei Regionen erhält die Möbelindustrie von ihren unmittelbaren Möbelabnehmern wie von Endverbrauchern nur schwache "Forst"-Signale - die Herkunft des für die angebo-tenen Möbel verarbeiteten Holzes aus "legaler" oder "nachhaltiger" Waldbewirtschaftung ist allenfalls ein nachrangiges Einkaufskriterium bzw. ist sie nur in Marktnischen relevant. Eine Ausnahme bilden die öffentlichen Auftraggeber in RBA, deren Möbelbeschaffung explizit den Aufbau nachhaltiger regionaler Forst-Holz-Wertschöpfungsketten in Acre stüt-zen soll. Experten der drei Untersuchungsregionen bezeichneten die Interaktion von Möbelherstel-lern untereinander als wenig kollegial, sondern wettbewerbsgeprägt. Unternehmen koope-rierten primär in für den Wettbewerb wenig relevanten Bereichen (z.B. gemeinsame Mes-sebesuche im Ausland). Die Initiative zu intensiverer Kooperation gehe häufig von Ver-bänden oder staatlichen Organisationen aus. Die Unternehmensbesichtigungen und Gespräche mit Experten zeigten, dass die in die Untersuchung einbezogenen Möbelhersteller nicht über ein systematisch aufgebautes Umweltmanagement verfügen. Die Beschäftigung mit Umweltproblemen orientiere sich vorwiegend an den für sie relevanten umweltrechtlichen Vorschriften. In NRW befolgen die Möbelhersteller nach Experteneinschätzung durchweg die Umweltauflagen; ihre Pro-duktionsbetriebe unterliegen strengen Kontrollen der Umweltbehörden. In Brasilien um-fassen behördliche Umweltschutzanforderungen für Möbelhersteller zusätzlich zum inner-betrieblichen Umweltschutz auch die Auflage, die Holzherkunft aus legaler Waldnutzung nachzuweisen. Bezüglich der Umsetzung der Umweltschutzanforderungen auf betriebli-cher Ebene ergab sich in beiden brasilianischen Regionen ein differenziertes Bild. Theoriebezogene Ergebnisinterpretation Der Verfasser versuchte zu verstehen, wie Unternehmer und Manager in der holzverar-beitenden Industrie das eigene Umfeld wahrnehmen und deuten, wie sie Entscheidungen treffen und begründen. Im Fokus stand die Forstrationalität von Entscheidungsträgern in möbelerzeugenden Unternehmen. Von ihm verfolgte Interpretationsansätze waren: 1. die Unterscheidung von Anlässen forstbezogenen Verhaltens der Möbelhersteller; 2. die Unterscheidung von Verhaltensbezugsebenen und Zeithorizonten; 3. die Prüfung, inwieweit das spezifische Verhalten bezüglich der für die Möbelher-stellung beanspruchten natürlichen Ressource Wald generellen Verhaltensmu-stern von Entscheidungsträgern in Produktionsunternehmen entspricht. Zu (1) Anlässe forstbezogenen Verhaltens Gefragt werden kann nach der wahrgenommenen Dringlichkeit forstbezogener Signale, die ein Möbelhersteller aus seinem Umfeld erhält: Können Anspruchsgruppen aus seiner Sicht ein bestimmtes forstbezogenes Verhalten verlangen bzw. erzwingen? Die Fallstudi-en legen den Schluss nahe, dass Möbelhersteller Einflüsse von Produktketten-externen Anspruchsgruppen wahrnehmen und reflektieren. Die Intensität wahrgenommener An-sprüche ist jedoch offenbar nur selten so hoch, dass sie Reaktionen der Möbelhersteller auslöst. In der Untersuchung erkennbar waren aber Verhaltensänderungen brasilianischer Möbelhersteller nach Einführung der DOF-Dokumentation zum Nachweis der Beschaffung von Holz aus legalen Quellen. Im Umkehrschluss lässt sich vermuten, dass Möbelherstel-ler forstbezogene Themen aus ihren Umfeldern vorwiegend als Signale wahrnehmen, die sie ihrem Selbstverständnis entsprechend individuell bewertet mit ihren Strategien ver-knüpfen, die sie aber auch ignorieren können. Die Art der für die Herstellung eines Möbelstücks verwendeten Holzvorprodukte bzw. die Materialkombination lenkt die Aufmerksamkeit von Möbelkäufern mehr oder minder stark auf den Bezug zum "Forst", wodurch auch die Forstrationalität der Möbelhersteller beein-flusst wird. In der Untersuchung ergaben sich diesbezüglich Unterschiede des Selbstver-ständnisses und der Marketingkommunikation zwischen Herstellern von Möbeln aus Holzwerkstoffen und aus Massivholz, bei den letzteren wiederum bezüglich der Möbelher-stellung aus Tropenholz oder nicht-tropischen Holzarten. Hersteller von Massivholzmö-beln stellten häufig einen Bezug ihrer Möbel zur Natur oder zum Wald her. Dabei betonten Hersteller von Tropenholzmöbeln die Individualität einzigartiger Holzarten aus artenrei-chen Naturwäldern; Hersteller von Möbeln aus nicht-tropischen Holzarten hingegen hoben die Herkunft der Möbelhölzer aus nachhaltig bewirtschafteten "nicht-tropischen" Wäldern hervor. Hersteller von Holzwerkstoffmöbeln argumentierten "ökologisch" mit den Vorteilen hoher Holzausbeute bei der Herstellung und Verarbeitung von Holzwerkstoffen, wodurch Waldressourcen geschont würden. Die brasilianischen Möbelhersteller sehen sich mit Ungewissheiten der Holzversorgung konfrontiert; sie interpretieren diese unterschiedlich, auch innerhalb der beiden Fallstudi-enregionen. In allen drei Untersuchungsregionen bekannten sich die in die Untersuchung einbezogenen Möbelhersteller zur Verarbeitung von Holz aus unbedenklichen Quellen. Sie erwarten Absatzrisiken für den Fall diesbezüglicher Zweifel ihrer Abnehmer. Gegen-wärtig sei kritisches Hinterfragen der Herkunft von Möbelhölzern seitens der Möbelab-nehmer jedoch selten und beziehe sich vorwiegend auf Tropenholz. Zu (2) Verhaltensbezugsebenen und Zeithorizonte Waldbewirtschaftung ist nur in wenigen Fällen ein eigenes Tätigkeitsfeld von Möbelher-stellern. Mit ihrem forstbezogenen Verhalten ergreifen Möbelhersteller folglich in der Re-gel nicht unmittelbar forstwirtschaftliche Maßnahmen, sondern beeinflussen diese indirekt oder reagieren auf die von anderen Akteuren gesetzten Forstthemen. Dies erfolgt zum einen durch Auswahl der für die Möbelproduktion eingesetzten Materialien und deren Be-schaffung, also durch ein direkt an die Möbelproduktion gebundenes Verhalten. Zum an-deren geschieht dies durch den Umgang und die Kommunikation mit Anspruchsgruppen im unmittelbaren Umfeld und im Makroumfeld. Materialorientiertes Verhalten und die Be-ziehungen zu Anspruchsgruppen stehen jedoch nicht isoliert nebeneinander, sondern können miteinander verknüpft sein, etwa weil bei Materialwahl-Entscheidungen das Ver-trauen zu Lieferanten und Abnehmerpräferenzen berücksichtigt werden. Mit Blick auf die Zeithorizonte der Entscheidungen von Möbelherstellern machte die Ana-lyse deutlich, dass in deren Kurzfristperspektive Forstrationalität von untergeordneter Be-deutung ist und andere Aspekte der Unternehmensumfelder im Vordergrund stehen (z.B. Holzversorgung für das aktuelle Produktionsprogramm und Wettbewerb). In der mittel- und langfristigen Zeitperspektive hingegen erhalten forstbezogene Überlegungen und Maßnahmen (wie Einsatz alternativer Holzvorprodukte oder Verwendung von Holz aus zertifizierter Waldbewirtschaftung) größeres Gewicht. Zu (3) Spiegelt Forstrationalität generelle Verhaltensmuster? Etliche der in der Forschungsarbeit registrierten Ausprägungen von Forstrationalität der Möbelhersteller lassen sich allgemeinen Verhaltensmustern von Entscheidungsträgern in Wirtschaftsunternehmen zuordnen: Legitimation: Die in die Untersuchung einbezogenen Möbelhersteller in allen drei Unter-suchungsregionen hoben hervor, ihr eigenes forstbezogenes Verhalten, insbesondere die Wahl der verarbeiteten Holzvorprodukte, sei gesetzeskonform und ökologisch unbedenk-lich. Diesen Standpunkt vertraten sie unabhängig von ihren jeweiligen Möglichkeiten, die Rohstoffquellen der beschafften Materialien zu beurteilen und zu beeinflussen. Anpassung: Die Möbelhersteller reagieren auf Anforderungen aus ihren Umfeldern, etwa auf behördliche Vorschriften und Kontrollen, Kritik von Umweltschutzverbänden, Nachfra-ge von Verbrauchern oder veränderte Wettbewerbsbedingungen. Solche Reaktionen schließen auch das forstbezogene Verhalten ein, wobei Vermeidung (zum Beispiel Ver-zicht auf die Verarbeitung von Tropenholz) ein alternatives oder komplementäres Verhal-ten sein kann. Antizipation: Unternehmen entwickeln Antizipationsstrategien, um sich auf erwartete zu-künftige Herausforderungen, Risiken und Chancen frühzeitig einzustellen. Dieses Verhal-ten zeigten Möbelhersteller in allen drei Untersuchungsregionen, etwa in ihrem Umgang mit der Forst-Holz-Produktketten-Zertifizierung oder der Erprobung neuer Holzarten und Holzwerkstoffe. Innovation: Sie ist eine Form der Umsetzung von Anpassung und Antizipation, ist aber für die Massivholz-Möbelhersteller auch eine eigenständige Verhaltensform. Zum Teil haben sie dabei Aspekte der Waldbewirtschaftung (besonders deutlich bei den Möbelherstellern in SBS, die Plantagenbewirtschaftung als neues Geschäftsfeld integriert haben) und der Weiterentwicklung ihrer Rohstoffbasis von vornherein im Blick, zum Teil ergeben sich se-kundäre Effekte für die Forstwirtschaft. Die vorliegende Untersuchung zur "Forstrationalität" holzverarbeitender Unternehmen hat gezeigt, dass Möbelhersteller Stärken und Schwächen der Waldnutzung in ihrer Standort-region wahrnehmen und forstbezogene Entscheidungen reflektiert treffen. Wie sie ent-scheiden, hängt von den Rahmenbedingungen der Industrie, dem Verhalten ihrer An-spruchsgruppen, von den spezifischen Unternehmensstrategien, auch von Wertvorstel-lungen der Eigentümer und Manager ab. Ihnen stehen bestimmte staatliche und private Anspruchsgruppen mit Erwartungen gegenüber, die dem Konzept nachhaltiger Entwick-lung der Agenda 21 entsprechen. Die Unternehmensbeispiele der Fallstudien zeigen ein-zelne Ansatzpunkte für die Verwirklichung nachhaltiger Entwicklung in waldreichen Re-gionen durch die Herstellung von Möbeln. Jedoch erscheint das gegenwärtige forstbezo-gene Verhalten der Möbelhersteller nicht umfassend nachhaltigkeitsorientiert, sondern pragmatisch selektiv abgestimmt auf die Erfordernisse, Interessen und Handlungsmög-lichkeiten der Unternehmen. Potenzial der Möbelindustrie, höhere Wertschöpfung durch immaterielle Phasen der Produktion (ihr Marketing, speziell die Produktgestaltung) zu erreichen, ist vorhanden. Auf der Grundlage neutraler Nachhaltigkeitsüberprüfung in der Holzwertschöpfungskette durch anerkannte Forstzertifizierungs-Systeme könnten von Holzmöbelherstellern durchaus stärkere Impulse für die Entwicklung und Aufrechterhal-tung nachhaltiger Forstwirtschaft ausgehen. Abschließend seien die theoretischen Erklärungsansätze Ressourcenabhängigkeit und Sensemaking angesprochen, denen in dieser Forschungsarbeit gefolgt wurde. Der Zu-sammenhang zwischen beiden ist bereits aus Pfeffer (1978) ableitbar. Steimle (2008) stellt diesen Zusammenhang explizit her, um das Nachhaltigkeitsverhalten von Unter-nehmen theoretisch zu erklären. Auch der Verfasser kombinierte beide Ansätze: Das Konzept der Ressourcenabhängigkeit war hilfreich bei der Analyse der Umfeldeinbettung der Möbelhersteller und bei der Interpretation ihrer Beziehungen zu bestimmten An-spruchsgruppen; der Sensemaking-Ansatz erleichterte es, die Umfeldwahrnehmung aus Sicht der Entscheidungsträger in der Möbelindustrie und ihr forstbezogenes Verhalten zu verstehen. ; Research concept The guideline to sustainability provided by Agenda 21, and the associated expectations of private enterprise with respect to their role in sustainability, represent a frame of reference for the study presented in this Ph.D. thesis. Agenda 21, a central document of the United Nations Conference on Climate and Development (UNCED 1992), and documents pro-duced by the following conferences attribute a central role to private enterprise in the real-isation of sustainable development. Commercial enterprises are expected to create value on the basis of an environmentally acceptable use of natural resources. Responsible en-terprises should accommodate the interests of the respective stakeholder groups, and these groups should in turn support private enterprise in the achievement of sustainable development. Non-governmental environmental organisations' expectations of private enterprise revolve around the environmentally appropriate use of natural resources and, accordingly, they exert pressure on businesses to do so. Nevertheless, the literature documents conflicts between commercial enterprise's understanding of its role and the expectations of interna-tional organisations and civil stakeholder groups. From the perspective of enterprise, doubts exist over whether the demands of these actors are reasonable and over the ex-tent to which commercial enterprise should assume the responsibility attributed to it. The objective of this study was to deepen the knowledge of the use by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) of the natural resources providing the raw materials necessary for their production activities – their role in market chains, their relationships with stake-holders and the consideration given to the management of natural resources. Enterprises manufacturing wood furniture were chosen for the study, as a representative example of an SME branch within the wood processing industry. As furniture production facilitates high value creation from raw wood, this example was deemed to be revealing with respect to the general assumption of Agenda 21 that high economic value creation from wood generates impulses for sustainable forestry. The investigation was carried out in regions with contrasting social, economic and especially forest and wood industry framework con-ditions. The research questions were: How do furniture manufacturers perceive 'forestry'? What is the relationship between furniture producers and the corresponding stakeholder groups, and how do they communicate 'forestry' to these groups? How do furniture producers ac-count for 'forestry' in their decisions? The author posed these questions under the overarching concept 'forest rationality.' The 'forest rationality' construct outlines how decision makers in the wood industry perceive forest management as the basis of their raw material supply, and how they account for it within decision making. It incorporates all aspects of the perception and interpretation, as well as the behaviour of wood processing enterprises with respect to the source of their raw material, 'forestry.' The basis for this is theories relating to resource dependence (Pfeffer and Salancik 1978, 2003; Steimle, 2008) and 'sensemaking' (Weick 1995, 2001). The information used to answer the research questions was obtained from three centres of the furniture industry in Brazil and in Germany, each with different social and forestry framework conditions. The three centres were in Rio Branco do Acre (RBA) in the Bra-zilian Amazon, in São Bento do Sul (SBS) in southern Brazil and in Nordrhein-Westfalen (NRW) in Germany. The comparative data collection carried out in the three regions posed particular demands in terms of the research methods. The approach chosen and the design of the data collection instruments were identical in the three regions. Funda-mental empirical knowledge was provided by means of a content analysis of furniture in-dustry journals (1) and the evaluation of secondary information (2). Guided telephone interviews with experts (3) illuminated the environments in which the enterprises operate and provided general insights into the behaviour of decision makers in the furniture in-dustry. The spectrum of forestry reasoning of the decision makers was further developed through personal contact made during visits to companies. In each region two producers of solid wood furniture and a producer of furniture from derived timber products were se-lected (4). Results of the journal analysis The quantitative content analysis of industry journals served to provide information about the overall spectrum of issues relevant for the furniture industry, and allowed for an as-sessment of the relative significance of the issues 'environmental protection' and 'forest resources/forestry.' The conclusions may be summarised as follows: 1. The issues 'environment' and 'forestry' are of interest within the furniture sector, but receive less attention in the industry press than topics such as economics, technology and competition. 2. In the furniture industry in both Germany and Brazil, the most important themes under the heading 'environment' are aspects concerning the local production site (enterprise-internal environmental protection). 3. 'Forestry'-related aspects are the focus of greater attention within the Brazilian fur-niture industry than the German. Results of the regional case studies The results of the research phases (2) to (4) are presented in the dissertation in the form of three regional case studies with an identical structure, namely a) the framework condi-tions affecting furniture manufacturers, b) non-market stakeholder groups, c) suppliers of wood products, d) furniture consumers, e) interaction between furniture manufacturers, f) forest and environmental management. The regional case studies confirmed the view provided by the analysis of the industry press that the specific situation of the entire regional 'forestry and wood industry' affects the Brazilian furniture manufacturers more so than those in NRW. In RBA there have re-cently been drastic changes in forestry and environmental policy, as well as institutional changes, which have generated new framework conditions for all wood producing and processing enterprises. In the SBS region 'forestry' occupies furniture manufacturers as much as other branches of the wood sector due to existing or expected future shortages of wood, and as a consequence of state control over the use of wood from legitimate forestry. In NRW, on the other hand, native forest management and the processing of materials derived from non-tropical tree species are considered to be unproblematic, and forestry-related themes do not appear to be critical in the macro-environment of the furni-ture industry. In NRW and in SBS the issue of core economic data for the sector as a whole, and branches within the sector, of national and international market trends and of technological developments dominate the agenda of the furniture manufacturers. The furniture manufacturers are subject to restrictions imposed by environmental authori-ties. The control of enterprise-internal environmental protection, linked in part with work safety, was identified as a focus of the activities of these authorities in all three regions. Unlike in Germany, in Brazil the sourcing of wood by wood processing enterprises is sub-ject to official control. The representative associations within the furniture industry in all three case study regions define as their central task the representation of the interests of their member organisa-tions to policy makers and society. In both Brazilian case study regions, in which forestry-related problems greatly occupy the furniture industry, the furniture industry associations also view forestry-related matters as being within their remit. In RBA the responsible as-sociation is seeking to advance the official registration of furniture manufacturers within the informal sector and to oblige them to process only wood obtained from legal sources. In SBS the furniture associations have focused considerable attention on the development of regional forestry and the supply of wood to the furniture industry in periods of wood shortage. At the time of this study, however, other economic problems had pushed the issue of forestry into the background. It was observed that the furniture producers studied as part of the research are rarely in direct contact with private environmental organisations. However, they are aware that these organisations indirectly influence the framework conditions affecting the furniture industry through consumer campaigns, by placing demands on the first links of the forest-wood value chain and through political lobbying. The dependence of the furniture producers on the suppliers of wood products varies be-tween the three study regions. This dependency is weak in NRW because the furniture manufacturers can source materials regionally and beyond without any difficulties, and because large wood suppliers take into consideration the demands of the furniture in-dustry with respect to quality, dimensions and the preparation of sawn wood and derived timber materials. This contrasts with the situation in Brazil. In SBS large to moderately large furniture manufacturers have taken a number of steps towards backward vertical integration (establishment of own sawmills, in some cases resorting to the management of pine plantations) or have sought alternative sources of pre-finished materials. The rea-sons for this are the uncertainty of the wood supply and the quality of the pre-finished wood products. In RBA the statutory requirement that only wood derived from 'legitimate sources' be used in manufacturing poses problems for the largely state-sponsored furni-ture manufacturers in the formal sector. A large proportion of the regionally available tropical wood is sold in or exported to other regions of Brazil in the form of part-wood goods. The prices paid by furniture manufacturers for high quality pre-finished wood pro-ducts, particularly those made of certified wood, have increased considerably in recent years, whereas furniture prices are under great pressure due to competition from numer-ous small, informal manufacturers and as a result of the supply of cheaply manufactured, mass produced furniture from southern Brazil. As yet, only a few well-organised furniture manufacturers in RBA appear to have adopted a strategy capable of countering this di-lemma. In all three regions the relationship between furniture manufacturers and their customers is characterised by dependencies of the furniture manufacturers. In RBA formally regis-tered furniture manufacturers are greatly dependent upon public contracts. In SBS furni-ture manufacturers are dependent upon mass production for the export market, with inter-national customers often specifying the models and exerting a considerable influence on price setting. In terms of national sales, the manufacturers in NRW and in SBS are pitted against the large purchasing associations and groups within the furniture retail industry. In all three regions the furniture industry receives only weak 'forestry' signals from its di-rect costumers and end users – that the wood used in the furniture provided is sourced from 'legal' or 'sustainable' forest management is, at best, a subordinate purchase cri-terion, or is only relevant in niches within the market. The public clients in RBA are an exception as their furniture acquisitions are explicitly intended to support the development of sustainable regional forest-wood value chains in Acre. Experts from the three research regions characterised the interaction between furniture manufacturers as competitive, with little cooperation evident. Any cooperation between the enterprises occurs primarily in those areas that are of little relevance for competition (e.g., visits to exhibitions abroad). Initiatives prompting intensive cooperation often stem from associations or governmental organisations. The visits to the enterprises in the three regions and discussions with the experts revealed that the furniture manufacturers involved in the study do not possess a systematically de-veloped system of environmental management. Consideration of environmental problems is oriented primarily towards the relevant environmental regulations. According to the ex-perts, in NRW the furniture manufacturers adhere to the rules. Their production facilities are subject to strict controls by the environmental authorities. In Brazil the statutory envi-ronmental regulations for furniture manufacturers include not only the enterprise-internal environmental protection stipulations but also the means to demonstrate that the wood used stems from legal sources. The implementation of the environmental protection re-quirements at operational level was found to be variable in the two Brazilian regions. Interpretation of the results in a theoretical context The author sought to understand how entrepreneurs and managers in the wood process-ing industry perceive and interpret their own environment; how they make and justify deci-sions. The focus was on the forestry reasoning exhibited by decision makers in furniture manufacturing enterprises. The interpretative approaches followed were: 1. The differentiation of motives for forestry-relevant behaviour displayed by furniture manufacturers; 2. The differentiation of behavioural planes of reference and time horizons; 3. The examination of the extent to which the specific behaviour with respect to the forest resource, as the principal source of the raw material used in the manufac-ture of furniture, corresponds to the general behavioural patterns of decision mak-ers in manufacturing enterprises. On (1) motives for forestry-related behaviour One might enquire as to the perceived urgency of the forestry-related signals that a furni-ture manufacturer receives from his environment: can, as far as the manufacturer is con-cerned, stakeholder groups demand or even force a certain forestry-related behaviour? The case studies suggest that furniture manufacturers perceive and take into consider-ation influences exerted by stakeholder groups external to the product chain. It would ap-pear, however, that the intensity of the perceived demands is rarely so high as to cause a reaction on the part of the manufacturers. Changes in the behaviour of Brazilian manufac-turers did become evident in the study after the introduction of the DOF documentation requiring that they be able to prove the wood they use is sourced legally. Conversely, it can be assumed that furniture manufacturers predominantly perceive forestry-related themes within their environment as signals, which they assess individually on the basis of their own beliefs and either integrate within their strategies or ignore. The type of pre-finished wood product – or combination of materials – used in the manu-facture of a piece of furniture serves to focus the attention of furniture buyers onto the relationship with 'forestry' to a greater or lesser extent, through which the forestry reason-ing of the manufacturers is also influenced. The investigation revealed differences in understanding and in marketing approaches between the manufacturers of furniture made of derived timber products and those of furniture made from solid wood; and in the latter case there was a further distinction between users of tropical and non-tropical tree spe-cies. The manufacturers of solid wood furniture often draw a link between their furniture and nature or the forest. Manufacturers of furniture made with tropical wood emphasise the individuality of unique types of wood stemming from natural forests rich in species. The manufacturers of furniture using non-tropical species, alternatively, accentuate the fact that their wood stems from sustainably managed 'non-tropical' forests. Manufacturers using derived timber products base their 'ecological' arguments on the advantages of the low levels of waste in the production and processing of derived timber products, as a re-sult of which forest resources are used more efficiently. The Brazilian furniture manufacturers are concerned by the uncertainties surrounding the supply of wood. The associated problems are perceived differently by different manufac-turers, even within the two case study regions. In all three study regions the furniture manufacturers involved in the study avowed the use of wood from legitimate sources, and expect risks to their sales if their customers were to have doubts in this regard. At present there is little critical scrutiny of the origins of the wood used in furniture by the consumer, however, and that which exists focuses predominantly on the use of tropical wood. On (2) behavioural planes of reference and time horizons In only very few cases is forest management an activity undertaken by furniture manufac-turers. The forestry-related behaviour of the furniture manufacturers does not involve di-rect participation in forest management operations, but rather in influencing these indi-rectly, or in reacting to the forest issues taken up by other actors. This is expressed in the choice of the materials used in furniture manufacture, and in their procurement; that is, through behaviour linked directly to furniture manufacture. It is also expressed in the communication with stakeholder groups situated in the enterprises' immediate surround-ings and in their macro-environment. Material-oriented behaviour and the relationship with stakeholder groups are not independent issues but may be linked; for example, because in decisions concerning material selection the manufacturer's trust in the supplier and the preferences of the consumers are taken into consideration. In terms of the time horizons of the decisions made by furniture manufacturers, the analy-sis made clear that forestry reasoning plays a subordinate role in their short term perspec-tive, and that other aspects are of greater importance for the enterprises in question (e.g., wood supply for the current production programme and competition). Forestry-related considerations and measures (e.g., the use of alternative pre-finished wood products or the use of certified wood) are afforded greater weighting in the medium to long term. On (3) whether forest rationality reflects general patterns of behaviour Many of the forms of forest rationality of the furniture manufacturers identified in the re-search can be matched to general behavioural patterns of decision makers in commercial enterprises: Legitimacy: The furniture manufacturers from all three regions involved in the study em-phasised that their own forestry-related behaviour complies with the law and is ecologi-cally sound, particularly the choice of pre-finished wood products. They adopted this posi-tion irrespective of their abilities to judge or influence the sources of the raw materials pro-cured. Adaptation: The furniture manufactures react to demands from their environment, such as statutory regulations and controls, criticism from environmental protection associations, requests from customers and altered competition conditions. Such reactions also incorpo-rate their forestry-related behaviour, with avoidance (e.g., avoiding the use of tropical wood) a possible alternative or complementary behaviour. Anticipation: Enterprises develop anticipation strategies in order to prepare in advance for expected future challenges, risks and opportunities. This behaviour was exhibited by furni-ture manufacturers in all three study areas; for example, in their manner of dealing with forest-wood product chain certification and in the testing of new wood types and derived timber products. Innovation: Innovation is a form of manifestation of adaptation and anticipation, but is also a distinct form of behaviour in the case of the manufacturers of solid wood furniture. They have, to a certain extent, aspects of forest management (particularly evident in the case of the furniture manufacturers in SBS that have integrated plantation management as a new area of operations) and the further development of their raw material base firmly in focus from the outset. There are also secondary effects for forestry. This study of the 'forest rationality' of wood processing enterprises shows that furniture manufacturers perceive the strengths and weaknesses associated with forest utilisation in their regions, and that they reflect carefully on forestry-related decisions. The decisions they make depend on the framework conditions within the industry, the behaviour of the associated stakeholder groups, the strategy of the specific enterprise and on the ideals of the owners and managers. They are confronted by the expectations of certain state and private stakeholder groups; expectations that correspond with the concept of sustainable development espoused by Agenda 21. The enterprises included in the case studies re-vealed individual starting points for the achievement of sustainable development in forest-rich regions through the production of furniture. However, the current forestry-related be-haviour of the manufacturers is not comprehensively geared towards sustainability. Rather it is pragmatically selective, tailored to the needs, interests and possible courses of action available to the respective enterprise. The potential for furniture manufacturers to achieve greater value creation in the non-material phases of the production process (marketing, and especially product design) exists. On the basis of neutral sustainability assessments in the wood value creation chain, carried out by recognised forestry certification systems, it is certainly possible for manufacturers of wood furniture to create greater impulses for the development and maintenance of sustainable forestry. Finally, to the theoretical approaches offering a potential explanation considered in the study, namely resource dependence and 'sensemaking.' The connection between the two could already be inferred from Pfeffer (1978). Steimle (2008) revealed the link between the two explicitly, in order to explain theoretically the sustainability behaviour of enter-prises. The author of this study also combined both approaches. The concept of resource dependence was helpful in the analysis of how embedded manufacturers are in their envi-ronment, and in the interpretation of their relationship with certain stakeholder groups. The 'sensemaking' approach rendered it easier to understand the perception by decision mak-ers in the industry of their business environment and their forestry-related behaviour.

A comprehensive look at the world of illicit trade. Though mankind has traded tangible goods for millennia, recent technology has changed the fundamentals of trade, in both legitimate and illegal economies. In the past three decades, the most advanced forms of illicit trade have broken with all historical precedents and, as Dark Commerce shows, now operate as if on steroids, tied to computers and social media. In this new world of illicit commerce, which benefits states and diverse participants, trade is impersonal and anonymized, and vast profits are made in short periods with limited accountability to sellers, intermediaries, and purchasers. Louise Shelley examines how new technology, communications, and globalization fuel the exponential growth of dangerous forms of illegal trade--the markets for narcotics and child pornography online, the escalation of sex trafficking through web advertisements, and the sale of endangered species for which revenues total in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The illicit economy exacerbates many of the world's destabilizing phenomena: the perpetuation of conflicts, the proliferation of arms and weapons of mass destruction, and environmental degradation and extinction. Shelley explores illicit trade in tangible goods--drugs, human beings, arms, wildlife and timber, fish, antiquities, and ubiquitous counterfeits--and contrasts this with the damaging trade in cyberspace, where intangible commodities cost consumers and organizations billions as they lose identities, bank accounts, access to computer data, and intellectual property. Demonstrating that illicit trade is a business the global community cannot afford to ignore and must work together to address, Dark Commerce considers diverse ways of responding to this increasing challenge

This paper complements the results of earlier work on factor misallocation. The paper first expands the methodology and provides two important decompositions for the main indices. The main result is that factor and output misallocation across districts is at least as important as misallocation within districts. Second, the paper provides an exploration of the service sector that complements earlier work on manufacturing. The analysis shows that labor plays a fundamental role for misallocation in services, whereas land is the determining factor in manufacturing. Third, the paper expands our earlier work on the effects of policies on misallocation by looking at a much broader range of policies, and find strong evidence of their effects on misallocation. Finally, the paper take steps towards the identification of the causal effect of misallocation on output per worker by developing a novel instrumental variable approach and a simulation approach that allows for checking the consistency of the empirical results.

The interview covered: first involvement with SMU, concept for SMU, parent engagement, third university, design of campus, city campus, private university, research, collaboration with Wharton, challenges. Biography: Professor of Accounting, 2000–2011 Deputy President, SMU, 1999–2001 Head of start-up team for SMU Professor Tan Teck Meng was a key player in the conceptualising and formation of Singapore's third university. In 1997, he was appointed chairman of a task force to look into the feasibility of setting up SMU. Subsequently he became SMU's first employee and was appointed SMU's founding deputy president (1999—2001). After his term in administration, Professor Tan returned to teaching in the School of Accountancy. His main research interests were in the area of corporate governance, entrepreneurship, and financial accounting. He was a highly regarded and dedicated teacher, nominated by The Straits Times as one of six 'star professors' of SMU in its Scholar's Choice series of articles. Professor Tan was also keenly involved in ensuring the welfare of students. To this end he set up the Tan Tee Chee and Tsan Kah Ngooh award, named after his parents, to be given annually to students who have demonstrated excellence in co-curricular activities. The Tan Teck Meng Gold Medal Award is given annually to a top member of the graduating class in the School of Accountancy. From 1990 to 1998 he served as dean of the School of Accountancy and Business at Nanyang Technological University. Professor Tan also served on the boards of a number of organisations in Singapore, including hospitals, schools and government statutory institutions. In 1997 he was the first Singaporean to receive the Wilford L White Award, the highest recognition given by the International Council for Small Business to individuals who have made an outstanding contribution to the development of small- and medium-sized businesses. He received the Service to Education Award (2007) from the Ministry of Education, and the Public Service Medal (2009) from the Singapore Government. He earned his bachelor of accountancy at the then University of Singapore and his master of commerce from the University of New South Wales, Australia. In 1996 he was awarded an honorary PhD by Liaoning University, China. Professor Tan passed away on 7 July 2011.

Ali E. Abbas (" Decomposing the Cross Derivatives of a Multiattribute Utility Function into Risk Attitude and Value ") received the M.S. degree in electrical engineering, the M.S. degree in engineering economic systems and operations research, the Ph.D. degree in management science and engineering, and the Ph.D. (minor) degree in electrical engineering, all from Stanford University, Stanford, California. He was a lecturer in the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford. He previously worked for Schlumberger Oilfield Services, where he held several international positions in wireline logging, operations management, and international training. He was also involved with several consulting projects for mergers and acquisitions in California, and was a co-teacher of several executive seminars on decision analysis at Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California. He is currently an associate professor in the Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign. His research interests include utility theory, decision making with incomplete information and preferences, dynamic programming, and information theory. Dr. Abbas is a member of INFORMS, a senior member of the IEEE, an associate editor for Decision Analysis and Operations Research, and an editor of the DA column in education for Decision Analysis Today. Address: Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, 117 Transportation Building, MC-238, 104 South Mathews Avenue, Urbana, IL 61801; e-mail: aliabbas@uiuc.edu . Vicki M. Bier (" Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation ") holds a joint appointment as professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the Department of Engineering Physics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, where she chairs the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering. She has directed the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis (formerly the Center for Human Performance in Complex Systems) since 1995. She has more than 20 years of experience in risk analysis for the nuclear power, chemical, petrochemical, and aerospace industries. Before returning to academia, she spent seven years as a consultant at Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc. While there, her clients included the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.S. Department of Energy, and a number of nuclear utilities, and she prepared testimony for Atomic Safety and Licensing Board hearings on the safety of the Indian Point nuclear power plants. Dr. Bier's current research focuses on applications of risk analysis and related methods to problems of security and critical infrastructure protection, under support from the Department of Homeland Security. She is also currently serving as a special term appointee for the Infrastructure Assurance Center at Argonne National Laboratory. Address: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 1513 University Avenue, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706; e-mail: bier@engr.wisc.edu . Robert F. Bordley (" Using Bayes' Rule to Update an Event's Probabilities Based on the Outcomes of Partially Similar Events ") is an INFORMS Fellow and a winner of the best publication award from the Decision Analysis Society as well as five major application awards from General Motors. He is a General Motors Technical Fellow with experience in research, planning, quality, marketing, corporate strategy, and procurement. He is also an adjunct professor at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and was formerly program director of Decision, Risk and Management Sciences at the National Science Foundation. Dr. Bordley has published 75 papers in decision analysis, marketing, and operations management. He has also served as chair of the American Statistical Association's Risk Analysis Section (which now has 1000 members), vice president of the Production and Operations Management Society, and a member of the INFORMS Board and the Decision Analysis Society Council. He earned a Ph.D. and M.S. in operations research and an M.B.A. in finance from the University of California, Berkeley. His primary interests have been in theoretical developments enabling high-impact application of decision analysis in a wide variety of corporate contexts (e.g., engineering design, corporate strategy, procurement, program management, etc.). Address: General Motors, Pontiac Centerpoint Campus North, 585 South Boulevard, Pontiac, MI 48341; e-mail: robert.bordley@gm.com , rbordley@umich.edu . Heidi M. Crane (" Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? ") is an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Washington (UW) School of Medicine and the associate director of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Services Research at the UW Center for AIDS Research (CFAR), which promotes research comparing the effectiveness of management strategies for HIV-infected patients in routine clinical practice. She is co–principal investigator (PI) of a PROMIS (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information Systems) National Institutes of Health Roadmap initiative U01 on measuring patient reported outcomes in clinical care for HIV-infected patients and PI of a National Institute of Mental Health R01 project on measuring and improving adherence for HIV-infected patients in clinical care. She is also medical director of the Madison HIV Metabolic clinic, PI of an American Heart Association grant on myocardial infarction and metabolic complications among patients with HIV, and PI of an Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality grant on comparative effectiveness of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication among HIV-infected patients. She provides care and training in the clinical care of HIV-infected individuals, and she also mentors junior investigators in HIV research in the UW Division of Infectious Diseases. Dr. Crane is a member of the Data Management Centers for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases–funded CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) research platform of real-time electronic health record data for 22,000 patients from eight CFARs across the United States, and the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS project's North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), which merges data on 110,000 HIV-infected individuals in care at 60 sites across the United States and Canada. Dr. Crane leads the CNICS Patient Reported Outcomes Committee and the CNICS and NA-ACCORD myocardial infarction event adjudication teams. Dr. Crane's research focuses on methods to improve clinical care for HIV-infected individuals as well as metabolic and other chronic comorbidities of HIV. She received her internal medicine residency training from Barnes and Jewish Hospitals, and her B.A., B.S., M.D., M.P.H. and Infectious Disease Fellowship training from the UW. Address: Harborview Medical Center, 325 9th Avenue, Box 359931, Seattle, WA 98104; e-mail: hcrane@u.washington.edu . Naraphorn Haphuriwat (" Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation ") is a researcher at the National Metal and Materials Technology Center in Thailand. She applies tools including optimization, decision analysis, and process simulation to improve production processes and operations for small and medium enterprises. She earned her Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering in August 2010. During her doctoral study, she was supported by the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at the University of Southern California, where she conducted game-theoretic studies in the applications of security. She also received an honorable mention in the 2004–2005 University Book Store Academic Excellence Award Competition for a project related to computer security. Address: 114 Thailand Science Park, Paholyothin Road, Klong 1, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand; e-mail: naraphoh@mtec.or.th . Joseph B. Kadane (" Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? ") is Leonard J. Savage University Professor of Statistics and Social Sciences, Emeritus, at Carnegie Mellon University. His research focus is on both foundational issues of Bayesian analysis and applications in many settings. These currently include physics, phylogenetics, air pollution, Internet security, law, and medicine, as well as Internet auctions. He also serves as an expert witness in legal matters. Address: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213; e-mail: kadane@andrew.cmu.edu . L. Robin Keller (" From the Editors: Deterrence, Multiattribute Utility, and Probability and Bayes' Updating ") is a professor of operations and decision technologies in the Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine. She received her Ph.D. and M.B.A. in management science and her B.A. in mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles. She has served as a program director for the Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). Her research is on decision analysis and risk analysis for business and policy decisions and has been funded by NSF and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Her research interests cover multiple-attribute decision making, riskiness, fairness, probability judgments, ambiguity of probabilities or outcomes, risk analysis (for terrorism, environmental, health, and safety risks), time preferences, problem structuring, cross-cultural decisions, and medical decision making. She is currently Editor-in-Chief of Decision Analysis, published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). She is a Fellow of INFORMS and has held numerous roles in INFORMS, including board member and chair of the INFORMS Decision Analysis Society. She is a recipient of the George F. Kimball Medal from INFORMS. She has served as the decision analyst on three National Academy of Sciences committees. Address: The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697-3125; e-mail: lrkeller@uci.edu . Mari M. Kitahata (" Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? ") is professor of medicine at the University of Washington (UW) School of Medicine, director of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Services Research at the Center for AIDS Research (CFAR), and principal investigator of the UW HIV Cohort. She has provided care and training in the clinical management of HIV-infected individuals for two decades, and she mentors investigators in HIV research in the UW Division of Infectious Diseases. Dr. Kitahata studies the outcomes of care for persons with HIV infection, and her research has elucidated key determinants of increased survival, including care managed by physicians with HIV expertise and earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment. The need for observational research to complement the invaluable information provided by randomized controlled trials has grown tremendously, which is why she established the CFAR Clinical Epidemiology and Health Services Research program at UW in 1995 and was among the first CFARs in the United States to do so. Dr. Kitahata developed the structure and methods to merge comprehensive HIV patient data and biological specimens from multiple settings into a powerful resource for researchers conducting basic, translational, clinical outcomes/comparative effectiveness, and behavioral/prevention research. She has led efforts to establish networks of national and international HIV research collaborations to address the most pressing questions regarding treatment and outcomes for HIV-infected individuals that cannot be answered through smaller cohort studies. Dr. Kitahata directs the Data Management Centers for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases–funded CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) research platform of real-time electronic health record (EHR) data for 22,000 patients from eight CFARs across the United States, and the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS project's North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), which merges data on 110,000 HIV-infected individuals in care at 60 sites across the United States and Canada. Dr. Kitahata serves on the Board of Directors for the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) HIV Medicine Association, the U.S. Public Health Service/IDSA Guidelines Committee for Prevention of Opportunistic Infections, and the International Training and Education Center on HIV (I-TECH), where she developed a national EHR system for the Haitian Ministry of Health. Dr. Kitahata received her B.S. from Yale University, M.D. from the University of Pennsylvania, internal medicine residency training at the University of California, San Francisco, and M.P.H. and Fellowship training at the University of Washington, where she was a Robert Wood Johnson Clinical Scholar. Address: University of Washington Medical Center, 1959 NE Pacific Street, UW Box 356423, Seattle, WA 98195-6423; e-mail: kitahata@u.washington.edu . Sanjeev R. Kulkarni (" Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment ") is a professor in the Department of Electrical Engineering at Princeton University. He is also an affiliated faculty member in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering and the Department of Philosophy. Prior to joining Princeton, he was a member of the technical staff at MIT Lincoln Laboratory. During his time at Princeton, he has held visiting or consulting positions with Australian National University, Susquehanna International Group, and Flarion Technologies. Professor Kulkarni has served as an associate editor for the IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, and he is a Fellow of the IEEE. His research interests include statistical pattern recognition, nonparametric statistics, learning and adaptive systems, information theory, wireless networks, and image/video processing. Address: School of Engineering and Applied Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: kulkarni@princeton.edu . Daniel N. Osherson (" Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment ") earned his Ph.D. in psychology at the University of Pennsylvania in 1973. Since then he has taught at Stanford University, the University of Pennsylvania, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Università San Raffael, Rice University, and Princeton University. His work centers on probability judgment and learning. Address: Department of Psychology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: osherson@princeton.edu . H. Vincent Poor (" Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment ") is dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Princeton University, where he is also the Michael Henry Strater University Professor of Electrical Engineering. He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton. His research interests are in the areas of statistical signal processing, stochastic analysis, and information theory, and their applications to wireless networks and related fields. Among his publications in these areas are the recent books Quickest Detection (Cambridge University Press, 2009) and Information Theoretic Security (NOW Publishers, 2009). Dean Poor is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, and he is a Fellow of the IEEE, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Royal Academy of Engineering of the United Kingdom. A former Guggenheim Fellow, recent recognition of his work included the Institution of Engineering and Technology Ambrose Fleming Medal, the IEEE Eric E. Sumner Award, and an honorary D.Sc. from the University of Edinburgh. Address: School of Engineering and Applied Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: poor@princeton.edu . Guanchun Wang (" Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment ") received an undergraduate degree in electrical engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He is currently a Ph.D. student in the Department of Electrical Engineering at Princeton University. His research interests include statistical learning, information retrieval, and judgment aggregation. He also worked as a summer associate for McKinsey's technology practice. Address: School of Engineering and Applied Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; e-mail: guanchun@princeton.edu . Henry H. Willis (" Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation ") is a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and the associate director of the RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center. His research has applied risk analysis tools to resource allocation and risk management decisions in the areas of public health and emergency preparedness, terrorism and national security policy, energy and environmental policy, and transportation planning. Dr. Willis serves on the editorial board of the journal Risk Analysis and served on the National Academies of Science Committee on Evaluating Testing, Costs, and Benefits of Advanced Spectroscopic Portals. He earned his Ph.D. from the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University and holds degrees in chemistry and environmental studies from the University of Pennsylvania (B.A.) and in environmental science from the University of Cincinnati (M.A.). Address: RAND Corporation, 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213; e-mail: hwillis@rand.org . Xiting (Cindy) Yang (" Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV-Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter? ") completed her Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University in the area of elicitation, specifically focusing on elicitation of expert knowledge on phylogenies in the format of rooted trees. She is currently a statistical reviewer at the Center for Devices and Radiological Health, U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Her current research focuses on clinical trials and elicitation. Address: U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 10903 New Hampshire Avenue, Building 66, Room 2223, Silver Spring, MD 20993-0002; e-mail: xiting.yang@fda.hhs.gov .

La presente tesi non è solo l'esito di una ricerca su un precetto giuridico controverso, ma è anche la narrazione di un processo personale di scoperta, che a partire dallo studio di una specifica norma ha fatto emergere la complessità delle interazioni nell'ambito delle politiche in materia penale, economica, e finanziaria. Partendo da un approccio microsociologico focalizzato sull'analisi di una determinata norma penale, il reato di riciclaggio,1 la ricerca ha dovuto confrontarsi con temi di interesse macrosociologico, al fine di inserire l'analisi della legge all'interno di un contesto più ampio di politiche nazionali, europee e internazionali, di attori e di governance transnazionale. Per mantenere la scientificità dell'elaborato ho omesso di esprimere opinioni personali sui temi, talvolta di carattere fortemente politico, e ho cercato, invece, di presentare aspetti critici e discussioni aperte fornendo una visione completa e imparziale delle contrastanti argomentazioni in modo da lasciare il lettore libero di trarre le proprie conclusioni. Il riciclaggio di denaro sporco è il processo tramite cui a proventi di reati viene data un'apparenza di essere stati guadagnati in modo illecito. È un reato tipico della cosiddetta 'zona grigia', poiché avviene al confine tra la sfera della legalità e quella dell'illegalità. Nel momento in cui profitti realizzati illecitamente si mescolano ai flussi di denaro lecito è molto difficile discernere ciò che ha un'origine legale da ciò che è stato guadagnato illegalmente. Il reato di riciclaggio di denaro sporco è stato introdotto proprio per affrontare questa difficoltà ed impedire che le strutture legittime dell'economia e della finanza globale venissero abusate da trasgressori al fine di ripulire i proventi di reato. Infatti i flussi di denaro sporco utilizzano spesso gli stessi canali usati per le transazioni lecite; la loro riuscita dipende dalla cooperazione di professionisti quali avvocati commerciali, agenti finanziari, commercialisti, la cui reputazione è raramente sospetta. Data questa promiscuità spesso la gravità del fenomeno è sottovalutata dal pubblico che non ha gli strumenti per riconoscerne la pericolosità, anche a causa dell'assenza di vittime dirette. Dall'altra parte le stime sulla quantità di proventi di reato riciclati a livello mondiale (che oscillano tra il 2,5 % e il 5,5 % del PIL globale) richiamano l'attenzione su quella che Dalla Chiesa definisce la mitologia del volume dell'economia criminale,2 e una parte della letteratura descrive il riciclaggio come il lato oscuro della globalizzazione,3 e come uno dei maggiori problemi dell'era moderna.4 Con questa ricerca ho voluto mettere in discussione l'efficacia del reato di riciclaggio nel far fronte al fenomeno dell'infiltrazione dei flussi di denaro sporco nell'economia lecita. Sebbene la pratica di nascondere i proventi di reato in modo da evitare la persecuzione giudiziaria risalga probabilmente a molto tempo addietro, il concetto giuridico di riciclaggio è relativamente recente ed è stato introdotto nei codici penali nella maggior parte del mondo a partire dalla fine degli anni 80.5 Nel frattempo un gran numero di autori si è scagliato contro la scarsa efficacia delle legislazione anti-riciclaggio6, nonostante le innumerevoli novità introdotte e i cospicui ammendamenti che hanno in larga parte espanso il campo di applicazione della normativa. La decisione di scegliere il contesto tedesco come caso di studio deriva dal fatto che il paese è considerato avere un rischio particolarmente alto di riciclaggio di denaro sporco. Secondo il rapporto emesso dal 2010 dal GAFI (Groupe d'Action Financière), dal FMI (Fondo Monetario Internazionale) e dall'OCSE (Organizzazione per la Cooperazione e lo Sviluppo economico)7 ci sono alcuni fattori che rendono la Germania propensa ad essere usata al fine di riciclaggio di denaro sporco: il volume del sistema economico-finanziario, la locazione strategica al centro dell'Unione Europea con forti legami internazionali, l'uso diffuso di denaro contante,8 l'apertura delle frontiere, la vastità del settore informale, l'importante ruolo a livello di economia globale, e il coinvolgimento nei flussi di denaro transfrontalieri. Anche i media, a partire soprattutto dalla pubblicazione del citato rapporto, hanno attirato l'attenzione del pubblico sul fenomeno, descrivendo la Germania come "paradiso" o "Eldorado" per i riciclatori. Alcuni recenti scandali hanno visto coinvolte prominenti banche tedesche, come la Deutsche Bank, la Commerybank e l'Hyopovereinsbank, contro cui procure straniere hanno sollevato l'accusa di riciclaggio di denaro sporco.9 La legislazione in atto, ed in particolare l'articolo 261 del codice penale tedesco, non sembra essere sufficientemente efficace per contrastare il fenomeno, nonostante gli abbondanti emendamenti e il continuo processo di aggiornamento e di espansione del campo di applicazione della norma. Al fine di spiegare questa per lo meno apparente incapacità della norma di fare fronte al fenomeno del riciclaggio, ho costruito l'ipotesi di ricerca sulla base delle teorie sociologico-giuridiche relative all'efficacia del diritto, alle funzioni manifeste e latenti delle norme e quindi alle intenzioni espresse e non dal legislatore, all'efficacia simbolica del diritto e di singole legislazioni e all'impatto, inteso come comprensivo degli effetti indesiderati o collaterali. L'ipotesi di ricerca è che la norma esplichi una funzione simbolica di allineamento dell'ordinamento nazionale a quello europeo e transnazionale, di compromesso tra gli interessi politici in gioco, e di creazione di consenso pubblico verso il legislatore per essersi occupato della questione. Si ipotizza che il legislatore abbia quindi consapevolmente accettato o addirittura scelto di formulare una norma strumentalmente poco efficace, ma simbolicamente capace di raggiungere i suoi obiettivi latenti. Si solleva inoltre l'ipotesi che la norma sia stata appositamente approvata con lo scopo di non modificare lo status quo delle relazioni e strutture economiche, e di permettere quindi l'ingresso di capitali sporchi nel paese, sulla base del motto pecunia non olet. La suddetta ipotesi viene parzialmente smentita dai risultati della ricerca empirica. La ricostruzione del processo di produzione legislativa mette in risalto l'esistenza di svariati e contrastanti interessi e della forte pressione esercitata dagli organismi internazionali per l'introduzione e lo sviluppo del reato di riciclaggio, e conferma, quindi, l'argomentazione che la norma sia stata approvata in un contesto di pressione politica esterna e di necessità di trovare un compromesso tra diverse parti politiche. Anche l'analisi degli aspetti problematici dell'articolo 261 del codice penale tedesco messi in risalto dalla dottrina supporta l'ipotesi della simbolicità della norma. Il fatto che il legislatore abbia formulato un reato così complesso crea evidenti problemi di integrazione dello stesso all'interno del sistema penale tedesco, e quindi di accettazione da parte degli studiosi e potenzialmente da parte degli operatori del diritto. Inoltre, la scelta di costruire un reato così complesso riflette la necessità di venire a compromesso con opposti interessi, ma potrebbe essere anche essere interpretata come un disinteresse al raggiungimento di un'efficacia materiale. La ricerca empirica sull'implementazione dell'articolo 261, invece, smentisce l'idea che la norma abbia un'efficacia puramente simbolica. Infatti il numero di condanne, di investigazioni, ed in generale l'uso ricorrente della legge riscontrato nelle statistiche criminali provano che essa conduca ad effetti strumentali, oltre che simbolici. Inoltre, nella prospettiva di alcuni degli operatori del diritto e degli esperti intervistati, l'articolo 261 è percepito come una norma particolarmente efficiente, sia in relazione alle quote di chiarimento, che come strumento di demarcazione tra comportamenti leciti e illeciti, in un contesto di deregolamentazione del settore finanziario. Da un'analisi piè ravvicinata delle statistiche e di altri rapporti emessi da enti internazionali e nazionali emerge però un quadro non così univoco: La norma sembra colpire più le vittime dei network criminali che operano a livello transnazionale che gli autori, perché spesso i colpevoli sono coinvolti in transazioni sospette in cambio di guadagni monetari. Le cospicue indagini finanziarie non riescono a raggiungere coloro che operano dietro gli esecutori dei reati minori, ed infatti la maggior parte di esse si concludono senza una condanna per riciclaggio. Questo a fronte di un volume di denaro sporco circolante nel paese che rimane allarmante, secondo alcuni degli studi analizzati. Se da una parte i risultati dell'applicazione della norma, sebbene strumentali, non possono considerarsi soddisfacenti, perché non sono riusciti ad evitare l'ingresso di capitali illeciti nell'economia nazionale, dall'altra parte sembra che l'esistenza di interessi profondamente contrastanti in gioco renda quasi impossibile la formulazione di un reato piè efficace. La tesi è composta da cinque capitoli, un'introduzione e una conclusione. Nel primo capitolo espongo le teorie sociologiche adottate per la valutazione di efficacia della norma e il metodo della ricerca. Inizialmente richiamo concetti di efficacia forniti da discipline affini alla sociologia del diritto - tra cui per esempio il concetto di efficienza e di efficienza indipendente rispetto allo scopo (zielunhabhängige Effizienz) riferito agli apparati amministrativi - che torneranno utili per l'interpretazione dei risultati delle interviste. Successivamente procedo con una panoramica sulle definizioni di efficacia del diritto fornite in sociologia del diritto, sulla ci base adotto una nozione "elastica" -riprendendola da Ferrari- di efficacia di una norma che guarda alle funzioni della norma e alle intenzioni del legislatore, in una prospettiva "intenzionalistica": "la corrispondenza fra un disegno politico di utilizzo di uno strumento normativo e i suoi effetti". Tale nozione, oltre a prestarsi ad un'analisi critica del diritto, fornisce indicazioni utili per l'analisi empirica dell'efficacia della legge in questione. In particolare ritengo utile considerare le seguenti variabili: le intenzioni latenti e manifeste del legislatore, gli scopi diretti e ed indiretti, l'eventuale efficacia simbolica del diritto, l'implementazione, la ricezione della norma nel senso di accettazione nel sistema giuridico e di interpretazione e percezione da parte degli operatori giuridici. Nella seconda parte si evidenzia il rilievo di tali variabili con riferimento specifico al diritto penale. In conclusione, sulla base delle riflessioni teoriche, formulo l'ipotesi sull'efficacia simbolica del reato di riciclaggio nell'ordinamento tedesco, che verrà poi verificata nei capitoli successivi. Nello specifico, presumendo che il reato di riciclaggio, introdotto come strumento fondamentale della lotta alla criminalità organizzata, così com'è formulato non adempie agli scopi dichiarati, nonostante gli innumerevoli emendamenti finalizzati proprio ad aumentarne l'efficacia, ipotizzo un'efficacia simbolica della norma, introdotta per offrire un'immagine di efficienza al pubblico (elettori). Inoltre sollevo l'ipotesi che la norma sia stata emanata appositamente inefficace per neutralizzarne le aspirazioni di punizione delle condotte illecite tipiche dei colletti bianchi, in una lettura moderna del conflitto sociale che avviene tramite l'emanazione di norme, con la volontà di decriminalizzare secondariamente comportamenti tipici delle classi forti. Nel secondo capitolo analizzo il processo legislativo a livello internazionale, europeo e nazionale. Il processo che ha portato alla creazione del reato di riciclaggio a livello internazionale viene ricostruito tramite dichiarazioni di intenti degli attori partecipanti, opinioni pubblicate, trascrizioni dei dibattiti parlamentari. Una particolare attenzione è posta sulle diverse intenzioni degli attori che hanno partecipato alla formulazione del reato. Il processo legislativo che ha portato alla formulazione dell'attuale legislazione anti-riciclaggio è un processo complesso, in cui diversi attori partecipanti hanno contribuito con differenti aspettative e dunque attribuendo diverse funzioni alla criminalizzazione del riciclaggio. Al fine di permettere svariate interpretazioni del dettato normativo in modo da soddisfare i differenti bisogni, e con lo scopo di trovare un compromesso tra gli interessi divergenti, il reato di riciclaggio è stato formulato in modo vago. Mentre alcuni Stati (ad esempio la Francia) inizialmente sostenevano l'introduzione del reato con lo scopo di combattere i paradisi fiscali e rafforzare la lotta all'evasione fiscale, altri Stati, come la Svizzera, hanno accettato di firmare l'accordo internazionale sulla criminalizzazione del riciclaggio solo a condizione che l'evasione fiscale non fosse inserito nella lista dei reati antecedenti. Con la nascita del GAFI la policy viene usata allo scopo di difendere l'integrità del sistema finanziario dall'infiltrazione di capitale illecito e dal 2001 si aggiunge la funzione di lotta al finanziamento del terrorismo. Tramite la soft law emanata dal GAFI per la prevenzione del riciclaggio, si trasferiscono compiti solitamente pubblici al settore privato: banche e istituti finanziari devono segnalare alla polizia ogni transazione sospetta, devono raccogliere e mantenere informazioni sui clienti e verificare le identità dei clienti. L'Unione Europea finora ha emanato quattro direttive nell'ambito del riciclaggio, l'ultima risale al 20 maggio 2015. Inizialmente la CE non aveva competenza in ambito penale, perciò la materia riciclaggio fu assorbita nella sfera economica (DG Economia e industria). La funzione dichiarata dal legislatore è la protezione del mercato interno, con particolare riguardo al fatto che i criminali possano sfruttare la libera circolazione dei capitali e l'eliminazione delle frontiere. Le direttive esprimono anche la volontà di impedire agli stati membri di emanare regolamentazioni che possano bloccare il libero mercato al fine di difendere le proprie economie dall'infiltrazione di capitale illecito. Emerge dunque un ulteriore conflitto di interessi. Nella seconda parte ricostruisco il processo legislativo e le evoluzioni interne alla Germania fino al momento della scrittura e fornisco il quadro del sistema repressivo e di prevenzione anti-riciclaggio. L'articolo 261 StGB è stato introdotto con legge Gesetz zur Bekämpfung des illegalen Rauschgifthandels und anderer Erscheinungsformen der Organisierten Kriminalität, quindi nell'ambito della lotta alla criminalità organizzata. Il dibattito parlamentare rileva che la norma è il frutto di un compromesso sotto diversi aspetti, non ultimo il fatto che è stata emanata del 1992, a pochi anni dalla riunificazione, e che quindi è parte del processo di negoziazione per la formazione di un diritto penale adattabile alle due culture giuridiche. Il legislatore tedesco evidenzia alcune funzioni della norma: la lotta al consumo di eroina e al traffico di stupefacenti, la diffusione e la pericolosità della mafia alla luce dei fatti recenti italiani, la volontà di proteggere l'amministrazione della giustizia e di isolare i criminali puntando alla criminalizzazione dei cosiddetti gate-keepers. Nel terzo capitolo individuo alcuni dei problemi sollevati dalla dottrina tedesca sul piano teorico con riferimento alla criminalizzazione del reato di riciclaggio nel contesto del sistema penale tedesco. Uno dei temi più discussi è relativo al bene giuridico protetto. La dottrina non ha ancora trovato un accordo su quale interesse sia protetto dall'articolo 261 StGB, le ipotesi sono: gli interessi dei reati antecedenti, l'amministrazione della giustizia, il sistema finanziario e la sicurezza. La vaghezza del dettato normativo non aiuta a trovare un interpretazione dottrinale univoca. La questione del bene giuridico protetto, lungi dall'essere una mera questione teorica, risente delle diverse funzioni attribuite alla norma dagli attori partecipanti al processo legislativo. Finora la giurisprudenza, che pur è intervenuta a chiarire altre questioni relative alla norma, non è intervenuta sul tema. Un altro tema su cui il dibattito è ancora aperto è il fatto di aver previsto al comma 5 l'ipotesi di colpa lieve, in controtendenza rispetto al legislatore europeo. Questo, secondo alcuni studiosi porta all'assurdo per cui anche il panettiere Tizio che vende del pane ad un evasore fiscale Caio potendo aver riconosciuto che Caio fosse un evasore, si rende colpevole di riciclaggio. La questione del livello di mens rea richiesto per una condanna per riciclaggio era sorta anche durante il dibattito parlamentare e l'introduzione del comma 5 è stato sostenuto da un emendamento della SPD che avrebbe voluto criminalizzare anche l'ipotesi di colpa lievissima. Questo, secondo la CDU avrebbe messo un freno al mercato e alle transazioni, poiché avrebbe costituito una minaccia per chiunque avesse intrapreso operazioni economiche. Essendo la funzione della norma incerta, la dottrina si divide tra chi sostiene che questa vasta criminalizzazione faccia perdere il senso del reato che sarebbe invece colpire i criminali che agiscono con intento, e chi invece sostiene che la norma abbia lo scopo di impedire qualsiasi infiltrazione di denaro illecito e quindi richieda una responsabilizzazione di tutti colori i quali prendano parte in operazioni finanziarie o economiche. Ancora una volta l'indeterminatezza del precetto legislativo è di ostacolo ad un'interpretazione univoca. Il quarto capitolo offre un'analisi qualitativa delle statistiche officiali sull'implementazione della legge dal 1992 ad oggi da parte delle istanze repressive e di prevenzione. Tra i dati analizzati i più rilevanti sono per esempio il numero di segnalazioni di transazioni sospette ricevuto dalle procure, il numero delle investigazioni condotte, il numero di condanne effettivamente inflitte ed eseguite e per quale delle ipotesi di riciclaggio, il volume di denaro confiscato. Essendo tali numeri indici del funzionamento del sistema penale e non del fenomeno del riciclaggio per sé, in conclusione si confrontano tali statistiche con le stime sul volume di flussi illeciti in Germania. Tale analisi, non potendo dare conto del numero dei reati evitati, sulla base dell'efficacia deterrente della norma, non intende esaurire il giudizio di efficacia della legislazione. Tra i risultati più rilevanti vi sono il fatto che il 60% delle persone condannate vengono condannate per l'ipotesi di colpa lieve, che solitamente consiste in casi in cui una persona poco abbiente ha accettato di far usare il proprio conto a terzi per operazioni sospette in cambio di un guadagno. Nel 5% dei casi le condanne sono inflitte per le ipotesi aggravate di commissione da membro di un'associazione criminale o in forma commerciale. Nel 90% dei casi le transazioni sospette segnalate alle procure portano a una chiusura dei procedimenti per mancanza di indizi che possano sostenere un rinvio a giudizio. La norma sembra colpire delinquenti minori e non grandi gruppi criminali, né altri delinquenti più potenti. Si ipotizza inoltre che l'incapacità di sostenere un rinvio a giudizio nonostante le informazioni acquisite e le indagini preliminari riduce la capacità deterrente della norma e permette, invece, ai criminali di conoscere le modalità di funzionamento del sistema repressivo e agire di conseguenza. Inoltre, le transazioni sospette sono segnalate nel circa 90% dei casi sa parte di istituti di credito, mentre gli altri enti obbligati dalla legislazione non sembrano partecipare attivamente al processo preventivo, in particolare il settore forense e immobiliare e del gioco d'azzardo. Sulla base di questi dati si ipotizza un effetto spill-over, ossia un trasferimento di illegalità dai settori più controllati a quelli meno controllati. I rapporti pubblicati dalla polizia, invece, considerano l'articolo 261 StGB come una norma con una delle più alte quote di chiarimento (ca 90%), quota calcolata sul numero di casi chiariti dal sistema penale, a prescindere dalle modalità di chiarimento. Per quanto riguardo il volume di denaro riciclato, il capitolo richiama alcune delle stime pubblicate da diversi enti, tra cui il Fondo Monetario Internazionale, il GAFI e la polizia criminale federale. Essendo il fenomeno del riciclaggio un campo in cui la cifra oscura è stimata essere molto alta, tali dati non possono essere presi come misura obiettiva del fenomeno. Infine il capitolo si conclude richiamando alcune analisi del tipo costi-benefici per misurare l'efficacia delle politiche anti-riciclaggio o alcune delle sue norme, condotte da enti terzi. Tali analisi sembrano concordare nel considerare i costi di implementazione della politica più alti rispetto ai benefici conseguenti. Nel quinto capitolo, infine, vengono discussi i risultati della ricerca empirica con gli operatori giuridici e con alcuni osservatori privilegiati, in modo da fornire una prospettiva interna sul funzionamento della norma. Tramite le interviste condotte si mettono in luce aspetti della prassi giuridica non fotografati dalle statistiche, allo scopo di offrire un'immagine dell'impatto della legge quanto più vicina possibile alla realtà. La ricerca empirica si avvale di interviste con operatori del diritto e con osservatori privilegiati che siedono in posizioni ministeriali rilevanti nella lotta al riciclaggio. La metodologia adottata è di tipo qualitativo, è stato fatto uso di interviste semi-strutturate a operatori del diritto e a osservatori privilegiati. Il capitolo presenta le percezioni degli intervistati su quattro temi principalmente: la dimensione del fenomeno del riciclaggio, l'adeguatezza tecnica della legislazione, i conflitti di interesse intrinseci alla legge e sorti dall'applicazione della norma e l'efficacia delle legge. A fronte di un rapporto emesso da quattro ONG nel novembre 2013, sulla base di statistiche prodotte dall'UNODC e dal Fondo Monetario Internazionale, e immediatamente riprese dai media, che descrive il paese come "Eldorado" per i riciclatori,10 le interviste sono dirette a cogliere l'opinione dei rispondenti sulle dimensioni del fenomeno del riciclaggio in Germania. Un intervistato ritiene inaccettabile desumere dal PIL tedesco il volume di affari del crimine organizzato nel paese, e obietta che non si possa, sulla base del giro d'affari del centro finanziario di Francoforte, definire lo stesso come centro di riciclaggio di denaro sporco. Un altro intervistato, dichiara, al contrario, che sicuramente il fatto che la Germania abbia un'economia stabile ed un settore bancario affidabile attiri coloro che vogliano investire proventi illeciti, neppure quest'ultimo possiede, però, dati affidabili sulla quantità di denaro riciclato. Il riciclaggio, come altri fenomeni legati alla criminalità organizzata, è una fattispecie che per definizione sfugge alle autorità e ai confini nazionali. Lo scopo dello stesso è nascondere proventi di reato e sottrarli in questo modo al sistema repressivo, questo è sicuramente un elemento che rende complessa, se non impossibile, la sua quantificazione. D'altra parte, osservano i soggetti intervistati autori del Rapporto del 2013, l'incapacità di fornire statistiche rilevanti dopo più di 20 anni di lotta al riciclaggio, sembra essere un sintomo di una carente volontà politica nel contrastare efficacemente il fenomeno. Secondo gli osservatori privilegiati se la Germania fosse davvero un paradiso per i riciclatori, ciò non sarebbe collegabile ad un deficit legislativo, dato l'impegno del governo nella lotta al riciclaggio, negando, quindi, l'accusa rivolta dai media per cui i criminali sceglierebbero il paese tedesco ai fini di riciclaggio di denaro sporco sulla base delle lacune normative. Agli intervistati è stato chiesto di evidenziare aspetti positivi e problematici della legislazione. Tra i più rilevanti vi sono: la necessità di bilanciare il bisogno di punire la condotta di riciclaggio e rispettare i principi fondamentali del sistema giuridico, il disinteresse da parte degli istituti finanziari nell'indagare l'origine del capitale investito dai clienti, anche in caso di sospetto di provenienza criminale, a causa della possibile conseguente perdita di reputazione nell'ipotesi di apertura di investigazioni da parte delle autorità sul cliente sospetto. Vi è poi una difficoltà materiale nel condurre indagini finanziarie, che spesso, conducono a condotte illecite commesse all'estero; sul punto si osserva che le condotte di riciclaggio, intese come operazioni atte ad ostacolare la provenienza delittuosa, non avvengono su territorio tedesco, bensì all'estero, il denaro che entra in Germania, è, quindi, già "pulito". Inoltre, l'articolo 261 è stato introdotto nel sistema tedesco come trasposizione di una direttiva Europea e non rifletteva una necessità interna dello Stato; la formulazione così vaga, infatti, si presta più per il sistema giuridico degli Stati Uniti, in cui non vige l'obbligo dell'azione penale, mentre in Germania, dove i pubblici ministeri hanno l'obbligo di azione penale, tale norma porta ad iniziare numerose indagini senza avere la capacità di proseguirle. In generale, gli intervistati rappresentanti dei Ministeri rilevano la forte pressione subita da parte del GAFI e dell'Unione Europea per l'emanazione della legge anti-riciclaggio e concordano nel dire che se la norma fosse stata creata sulla base di una necessità e di un dibattito nazionale sarebbe stata scritta diversamente. C'è chi individua nel sistema penale le cause di inefficacia dell'articolo 261, nello specifico, la limitata possibilità di effettuare intercettazioni telefoniche, le restrizioni in materia di inversione dell'onere probatorio, e lo scarso utilizzo della confisca dei proventi di reato a causa del disinteresse da parte delle procure (gestite a livello di Bundesländer) nell'investire risorse in tal senso dato che i beni confiscati non resterebbero in mano al Bundesland ma verrebbero raccolti in un fondo federale e poi spartiti. Si osserva una generale mancanza di risorse pubbliche che porta ad una carenza di personale coinvolto nelle investigazioni e, quindi, ad una incapacità di far fronte ai processi in corso in modo efficace. Per questo motivo, i pm non hanno la capacità di indagare più a fondo casi di riciclaggio all'apparenza semplici, ma che potrebbero portare alla luce organizzazioni criminali operanti nell'ombra. Alla totalità degli intervistati è stata chiesta un'opinione sull'efficacia della legge. L'articolo 261 del codice penale tedesco è stato definito da un soggetto "una legge scritta in modo indecente, che produce risultati banali sul piano delle statistiche criminali, soprattutto con riferimento alle condanne per riciclaggio in grossi casi di criminalità economica". Il reato è così difficile da provare in giudizio, che risulta facile, per la difesa, sfruttare le lacune legislative per evitare una condanna per riciclaggio. I rappresentanti dei Ministeri confermano che la lettera dell'articolo 261 crea confusioni e che quindi l'accusa, pur trovandosi di fronte ad un caso di riciclaggio spesso preferisca perseguire i delitti presupposto. Questo non è, però, un sintomo di inefficacia, dato che l'effettività a cui mira il Ministero dell'interno non è data dal numero di condanne per riciclaggio, ma dal numero di casi risolti, e quindi dal numero di condanne in generale, a prescindere dall'imputazione. D'opinione opposta un altro intervistato che ritiene che l'articolo 261 non abbia alcuna capacità deterrente nei confronti della criminalità organizzata, "la norma ricorre così raramente nella prassi giudiziaria che di fatto non rappresenta una "minaccia" per i potenziali criminali". I soggetti intervistati esprimono più soddisfazione a riguardo della legislazione di prevenzione (GWG); in particolare, con riferimento alle piccole e medie imprese, per le quali è difficile riconoscere tra i partner commerciali coloro i quali investono denaro di provenienza illecita, la possibilità di affidarsi alle autorità investigative, in caso di sospetto è fondamentale. Un avvocato specializzato in compliance per società, descrive la norma preventiva come molto efficace e severa, tanto che è impossibile per le aziende, specialmente per quelle di medie o piccole dimensioni, adempiere a tutti gli obblighi prescritti dalla norma, ma, egli osserva, l'efficacia del sistema sta proprio nel fatto che le autorità di controllo, consapevoli dell'elevata rigorosità della legge, chiudono un occhio di fronte a lievi inadempienze. Una legge meno severa e un controllo più fiscale non otterrebbero la stessa efficacia, perché la norma non avrebbe lo stesso potenziale deterrente. L'efficacia all'interno delle amministrazioni responsabili per la lotta al riciclaggio è interpretata come efficienza dell'apparato, per questo motivo, non ci sono verifiche sull'efficacia degli strumenti giuridici sulla base degli scopi dichiarati, quanto piuttosto sulla correttezza del funzionamento dell'amministrazione e sulle possibilità di migliorarlo; il punto è capire come migliorare, non se il sistema sia efficace o no. Agli intervistati è stata chiesta un'opinione sull'eventuale efficacia simbolica della legislazione. La maggioranza delle risposte è stata negativa, gli sforzi compiuti da parte dello Stato -e quindi delle procure, della autorità competenti e della polizia- nel contrastare il riciclaggio e la criminalità economica non possono essere considerati simbolici. Alcuni intervistati ritengono assolutamente necessaria e strumentale – e quindi non simbolica- l'esistenza del reato nel codice penale come demarcazione di illegalità di tali condotte e come strumento atto a contrastare la criminalità economica perché mette in chiaro entro quali limiti le società possano perseguire profitti in modo legittimo. Di opinione diversa, invece, gli avvocati penalisti i quali si sono detti favorevoli a tale definizione sulla base dello scarso numero di condanne e soprattutto sulla mancata previsione da parte del Governo di mezzi adeguati per l'implementazione della legislazione. Lo stesso è osservato dal terzo settore, il quale sostiene che, a fronte di una legge complessa, oggetto di svariati emendamenti nel corso degli anni, non c'è stato un sufficiente impegno sul versante dell'implementazione; il coinvolgimento del GAFI e dell'OECD nella lotta al riciclaggio è percepito come un modo per creare posti di lavoro e nuove figure professionali, più che un'arena dove discutere efficaci strumenti di lotta ai reati economici. Altri elementi interessanti riscontrabili nelle interviste sono i conflitti di interessi che emergono dall'applicazione delle leggi anti-riciclaggio. Tra essi, vi è il dibattito tra il Ministero dell'Interno e quello di Giustizia in riferimento all'adeguatezza dello strumento penalistico nel contrastare la criminalità economica, dibattito già affrontato dalla dottrina, a cui, però finora, non è stata data una risposta univoca. Da una parte il Ministero dell'Interno auspica un intervento giuridico più deciso, che, per esempio, ricomprenda il reato di riciclaggio nella responsabilità penale degli enti (non ancora esistente in Germania) e sollecita una svolta politica generale in tema di criminalità economica dalla deregolazione del mercato finanziario all'intervento dello Stato in ambito economico ai fini di chiarire i comportamenti leciti e quelli illeciti. Dall'altra parte, il Ministero della Giustizia considera erroneo il ricorso al diritto penale ai fini di risolvere problemi di tipo economico o finanziario e cerca di frenare la tendenza moderna alla proliferazione penale, a favore di un intervento di tipo preventivo-sociale. A tal proposito, si osserva che agli incontri del GAFI a cui partecipano i rappresentanti dei Ministeri di Giustizia, coloro che provino a richiamare l'attenzione sulla necessità di rispettare i principi fondamentali costituzionali e di limitare l'intervento penale a tutela dei cittadini, vengano tacciati di non voler combattere la criminalità organizzata in modo efficace. In conclusione riapro la prospettiva a livello globale ed inserisco il reato di riciclaggio in una riflessione più ampia sulla governace finanziaria. In una prospettiva storica di analisi delle politiche economiche recenti si osserva come vi sia stata una tendenza a deregolare il mercato per mano delle istanze tradizionali pubbliche, e al contempo un aumento di strumenti transnazionali di cosiddetta soft-law che si sono fatti portatori di interessi particolari. Finché questa conflittualità non verrà risolta sarà impossibile impedire il riciclaggio di denaro sporco. Con particolare riferimento al contesto europeo, si prende atto che è stato molto più facile chiudere le frontiere per le persone fisiche e non a quelle giuridiche o ai capitali. ; This paper aims to question the sociolegal1 effectiveness of the money laundering offence.2 The literature that assesses the effectiveness of the anti-money laundering system is abundant. While most of it does not question the regime's goals this paper takes a step back and critically looks at the law-making process. In addition, while most studies have assessed the effectiveness of anti-money laundering law by looking at statistical outcomes, this paper takes a step forward and tries to explain those statistics by looking at legal praxis and at indirect effects. The significance of the research derives from the insertion of the analysis on money laundering offence in a broader political, economic and historical context. The methodology adopted is qualitative, with the intended purpose of underlining the complexity of the issue tackled, rather than reducing it through a quantitative approach. While most of the existing literature has quantitatively assessed the effectiveness of the anti-money laundering regimes on the basis of statistical data and other quantitative indexes and has tried to reduce the complexity of the issue by measuring it numerically, this research adopts a qualitative methodology, which instead highlights the entanglement and the different perspectives on the question. Money laundering is the process of giving profits originated illegally an appearance of having been made lawfully.3 Due to the tightening of economic criminal policies that limit the possibility of integrating ill-gotten gains in the legitimate economy, offenders have developed more and more complex methods and subterfuges to launder proceeds of crime, so the rise of a proper 'money laundering industry' (industria del riciclaggio) is mentioned.4 The total volume of money laundered is estimated to amount to between 2,5 and 5, 5 % of the world GDP.5 Due to the borderline nature of money laundering, which happens between the so-called 'legitimate economy' and the 'dirty economy', and thus involves different actors such as banks, the financial sector, certain professions and businesses, offenders, victims and law enforcement agencies, the legal response needs to compromise with all the various economic, political, social and financial interests at play. Furthermore, where legitimate business intermingles with illegal business and legitimate funds with illicit funds, it is very difficult to distinguish what is legal from what is not. The criminalisation of money laundering was specifically supposed to tackle this fine line. The goal of this research is to assess whether the choice of criminalising money laundering has been effective to tackle this fine line. In order to assess the impact of the domestic implementation of the existing legal framework, the research uses a case study that specifically questions the effectiveness of the money laundering offence in the German national criminal legal system. The interest in the German case derives from the fact that, according to the IMF, the OECD and the FATF, Germany might have 'a higher risk profile for large scale money laundering than many other countries'.6 There are some factors identified as enablers of money laundering activities, such as the large economy and financial centre, the strategical location in the middle of Europe, with strong international links, the substantial proceeds of the crime environment involving organised crime operating in most profit generating criminal spheres, the open borders, the large informal sector and a high use of cash, the large and sophisticated economy and financial sector, the important role in world trade, and finally the involvement in large volumes of cross-border trade and financial flows. The media have kept on reporting the fact that Germany is an ideal country, or even a paradise for money launderers.7 According to most recent media reports, corruption is increasing in Germany along with money laundering and organised crime,8 and illicit financial flows are estimated to amount to 50 Billion Euros annually.9 Renowned banks such as Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, and Hypovereinsbank have been the focus of recent scandals due to their involvement in large tax evasion and money laundering schemes, investigated mostly by US law enforcement agencies.10 The legal framework has been considered as not being sufficient to tackle the estimated volume of money laundering. In 2007 and 2010 the European Commission initiated two proceedings against the German government for having contravened the European treaty by not having effectively transposed into national law the European framework to tackle money laundering and terrorist financing.11 In response to this wave of criticism, some important changes have been made.12 With specific regards to penal law, the legislature has amplified the scope of the money laundering offence and the sphere of criminal liability in order to improve the effectiveness of the existing legislation.13 Yet the continual expansion process has raised legal challenges that could constitute an obstacle for the effective enforcement of the measure. With regards to international legislation, scholars have often criticized the ineffectiveness of the anti-money laundering regime to not be able to achieve its goals and thus to be only appearance of public action. 14 While there is theoretical support for the perception that policies have contributed to a decrease in the incidence of money laundering, there is no evidence that this goal has actually been achieved.15 The official discourse describes the regime as a crucial tool to prevent and combat money laundering, and lawmakers have been focusing on expanding the reach of anti-money laundering laws. This work however takes a critical approach towards the existing legal framework and presents the view that questioning the effectiveness of the money laundering offence is essential before expanding the scope of the existing legal framework.16 On the background of the reflections based on the sociolegal framework that sets the definition of legal effectiveness with specific respect to criminal law, and on the critical literature on the inadequateness of the international anti-money laundering system to eliminate the targeted activity recalled in the introduction, the hypothesis underlying the case study is the following: Article 261 Gcc may be an example of a symbolic legislation, whose latent functions prevail on its declared functions. In particular, it is hypothesised that the law is an example of a 'compromise-law' that satisfy all parties taking part in the law-making process, thanks to the vagueness of the wording that allows a broad range of possible interpretations, and also thanks to the actual ineffectiveness, which pleases those who were contrary to the introduction of the provision. It is here necessary to recall the considerations on the 'legislator' being an heterogeneous group of parties not only constituted of members of the Parliament but often also by external actors, who can influence more or less transparently the law making-process. While the manifested function of tackling money laundering has in fact remained in the background, the thesis hypothesises that other latent goals have been pursued. It is further hypothesised that the 'law inaction' is part of a process of decriminalisation that intentionally grants impunity to a certain group of actors, in this case those laundering money, while giving the appearance that the practice is not accepted by law by labelling it as criminal. By using the concept of function, the study focuses on eventual conflicting interests emerging throughout the policy-making process and/or being displayed through the implementation of the provisions. In order to verify these hypotheses the research proceeds with a case study that aims at empirically assessing the sociolegal effectiveness of Article 261 Gcc. In particular, by applying the 'elastic' definition of effectiveness, the following chapters analyse the law-making process, the level of acceptance by legal scholars, the implementation, and the opinions of legal experts and professionals. The methodology adopted is qualitative. The research consists of a case study that includes a documental research, a qualitative analysis of statistical data and the conduction of interviews with privileged observers and legal actors. The study is a macro-sociological assessment of the effectiveness of a criminal legislation through the analysis of the motives that have triggered lawmakers to enact the current legal framework and the practical effects of the 'law in action'17 and of the 'law inaction'.18 Thanks to the use of sociological conceptual tools, as the ones of function, symbolic effectiveness, power, labelling, and legal culture, the research critically approaches the legal framework. In addition, the sociolegal perspective allows us to take into account the multidisciplinary nature of the phenomenon of money laundering and of its countermeasures and the diverse conflicting interests at play. The work has been conducted by a single person and not by a team of researchers; this has imposed a limit on the interviewing sample and the impossibility of undertaking, along with the qualitative analysis of the provision, a qualitative analysis of the jurisprudence and a quantitative analysis of the case law. In addition, criminal provisions have a deterrent purpose, yet in certain cases it is almost impossible to quantify the deterrence effect of those provisions, as in the case of the money laundering offence, and this represents a shortcoming of the current research. Official numbers are highly problematic, this element, despite impeding an objective quantification of the phenomenon, can represent a partial result for the qualitative analysis, because it highlights the complexity of the matter. The anti-money laundering regime is constantly evolving, and this would require continuously updating the assessment, instead the research provides a picture of the current situation. Yet the work offers the reader an instrument to critically interpret also possible changes in the wording of the money laundering offence that may be made following the publication of this work. The outcomes of the critical study on the reasons and effects of the current legislation can be used as a starting point for further research; the methodology set for the empirical analysis can be applied to assess the effectiveness of following developments. The structure of the thesis is the following: The first chapter presents the theoretical sociolegal framework and provides an operational definition of the concept of effectiveness that directs the empirical research. At the end the chapter describes the methodology of the qualitative research. Chapter two traces the genesis of the money laundering offence, as well on an internal, European and domestic level. The chapter analyses legislative intents, parliamentarian debates and other external contributions as declarations of intents and opinions through a desktop-study. The third chapter is dedicated to the doctrinal debate about the money laundering offence regulated in the German penal code. In particular the chapter highlights the controversial issues that have emerged through the abundant legal scholarship production, which might affect the effectiveness of the money laundering offence. Chapters four and chapter five present the empirical research. The fourth chapter analyses the quantitative data of the implementation of the money laundering offence from a qualitative perspective. The last chapter presents the results of the interviews. The main outcomes of the research are that the interests expressed more or less manifestly from the actors taking part in the initial phase of the creation of the anti-money laundering regime were strongly conflicting with each other. One representative example is the question whether to use the policy also to tackle large scale tax evasion or to leave proceeds deriving from fiscal crimes outside of the regime. Very different justifications were given for the criminalisation of money laundering at different stages. Often the declared motives did not correspond to the real goals of the actors taking part in the law-making process. The rhetoric connected to the seriousness of the drug issue was the manifest function of the new criminalisation of money laundering. However, other latent goals, for instance, the desire of financial institutions to clean their reputation and gain customs confidentiality or the interest of some governments to curb tax evasion were already present during this initial phase. Another controversial issue concerns the fact national states have adopted anti-money laundering measures under the pressure of the FATF, which is led by most industrialised countries.19 Despite lacking democratic legitimation, the FATF has imposed worldwide a brand new regime of criminalisation, prevention and enforcement. The legal framework has been used to address ever-new challenges, and this expansion process has been coupled by a rhetoric that scholars have defined the securitisation rhetoric.20 The most recent function manifestly attributed to the anti-money laundering legal framework, that is, in short, the protection of the soundness of the financial system. Especially in times of financial insecurity, the tendency of hardening laws against economic crimes increases. Having previously deregulated the financial system to enhance economic liberties, legislatures resort to criminal law to control illegality in the economy. As a response to the European financial crisis of 2007-2011, legislatures, instead of rethinking the approach towards the protection of the global finance, called for a tightening of economic crimes regulations. The European discourse on money laundering has mostly been related to the destabilisation of the market, the abuse of capitals' movement liberty, the disintegration of the internal economy. But, why was the EU so keen on imposing a common standard for the criminalisation of money laundering, without even enjoying competence in penal matters? The introduction of a common anti-money laundering control policy served to a latent function, namely to the purposes of the creation of the 'Single Market', by way of avoiding that Member States would have adopted measures inconsistent with the completion of the Internal Market, while taking action to protect their own national economies from money laundering.21 This was done by avoiding that domestic regulations implemented for protecting national economies from the infiltration of ill-gotten capital could have hampered the freedom of movement of capital within the European borders. The tension emerges, also in the wording of the most recent EU money laundering Directives, due to lack of Community action against money laundering could lead Member States, for the purpose of protecting their financial systems, to adopt measures which could be inconsistent with completion of the single market.22 There are thus conflicting interests between the claim for regulation to avoid the infiltration of illicit capital, and the demand for deregulation to foster the free market. The European legislature, however, did not declare completely this intention and justified, instead, the imposition of anti-money laundering rules given the threats posed by money laundering to the financial system and thus to society. According to this critical approach, the criminalisation of money laundering turns out to be more of a political tool aimed at achieving governance within the EU, while being presented to the public as an essential intervention to guarantee security and well-being. Once again, thus, the declared goals of the lawmakers did not correspond with the real intentions. It is especially in the interest of a research on the law's effectiveness to unveil functions that were undeclared, in order to evaluate the outcomes in a more critical way. Also from the analysis of the national law-making process emerged divergent opinions and expectations relating to the criminalisation of money laundering. The Parliamentarians debate that took place with regard to the introduction of the money laundering offence and other instruments to tackle drug-trafficking shows that the discussion was deeply embedded in the political-historical context. Given that Germany was just reunified after a period of two dictatorial regimes, the hearing gives the impression that lawmakers felt the responsibility of creating a new legal system against such historical background. In order to balance the very different legal cultures, the divergent approaches had to be compromised. The introduction of a new crime was particularly delicate due to the discriminatory and arbitrary use of criminal labels by the previous dictatorial regimes. Therefore, delegates would not easily give up on fundamental rights for the cause of persecuting criminals. The legislation can be seen as an attempt to balance the need to adopt more effective measures to tackle crime and the necessity of respecting the rule of law and creating a 'militant democracy'. Yet, given the external pressure of the FATF, the EU and of the media, the text was less of a compromise and rather a ratification of 'internationally' accepted standards. The rule of law was not the only issue emerged in the initial phase of the political debate. Controversial opinions were raised also with regard to the questions of the mens rea and the interest protected by the new criminal provision: Certain political parties supported the broadest criminal liability to ensure an effective prosecution of money laundering, other parties were worried that a widespread liability would have been cumbersome for the economic system. Moreover, along with the expansion of the international criminal legal framework to fight against money laundering, also the scope of Article 261 Gcc was extended to include ever-new predicate offences. From the analysis of the doctrinal debate, it emerged that legal scholars have revealed technical hindrances that hinder the provision's legitimacy and thus hamper a positive integration of the act in the criminal legal system. In addition, given that most controversial issues are caused by the wording of the offence, the chapter seems to uphold the idea of an intentional potential decriminalisation of money launderers. The wording of Article 261 Gcc has the potential of frustrating some of the intentions expressed by the legislature in occasion of the adoption of the provision. While the vague formulation of the money laundering offence was thought to tackle ever-new emergencies and has been justified by legislatures as necessary to ensure a more effective fight against money laundering, it has also raised issues that, far from being purely dogmatic, have undermined the acceptance of such law. If law makers have designed the offence in a broad way to allow the criminalisation of conducts that could not have been prosecuted by the existing offences before, the large discretion left to prosecutors, has resulted in a cumbersome element for the prosecution of money laundering. In addition, criminalising the reckless conduct without envisaging a specific criminal liability for security positions has widened the scope of the offence to the point that the law has missed its function of isolating criminals by criminalising gate-keepers' activities. In addition it emerged that there are some open questions with regard to the wording of the offence, for example the question of the interests protected by Article 261 Gcc. On one side a state intervention is considered necessary to contain the impact of economic misbehaviours to protect citizens, on the other side it is important to limit the resort to criminal law only for safeguarding individual or collective situations and not for defending an existing economic structure. The economic system may, in fact, not be considered as a collective interest that needs protection. Also, safeguards provided by penal law need to be substantial and not symbolic, because they urge to change a given situation of inequality, where criminals can profit from illegal practices while legitimate economic actors undergo unfair competition. From the doctrinal analysis it has instead emerged that the legislator seemed to be more interested in drafting a symbolic legislation that can be hardly integrated in the legal system and that raise strong challenges. Lawmakers have been focusing on expanding the reach of anti-money laundering in order to improve its effectiveness, yet without providing legitimacy for such expansion. One of the most meaningful fact observed in the qualitative analysis of statistical data is that organised crime and 'gross money laundering' are not persecuted through Article 261 Gcc. This fact can be inferred by the low number of convictions pursuant to Article 261 (4),23 by the low number of money laundering proceedings categorised as organised crime and by the low number of investigations in the field of money laundering, tax crimes and economic crimes recorded by public prosecutors offices in 2013, where more than one person was involved (18 %). Yet, this does not mean that the criminal justice system does not act against them, but rather that it uses other tools to achieve the goal. While the low conviction rate for serious money laundering cases could be also a symptom of a high degree of deterrence of the provision, it seems that law enforcement uses the money laundering charge as a fallback for authorities who are unable to acquire sufficient evidence in a preliminary phase for the predicate crime and necessitate further information otherwise not accessible. The charge of money laundering allows investigators to access the vast amount of information recorded pursuant to the GwG, which would not be otherwise accessible. Yet, after the investigative phase, prosecutors seem to prefer to modify the charge and opt for indictment for predicate offences instead. The law seems to be effective to the extent that it facilitates the initial investigations, while it does not serve directly the function of punishing money launderers. Besides having a substantial nature, the provisions seem to have a procedural function. It can be inferred that prosecutors find particularly difficult to bring evidence against organised money launderers also due to the fact that professional offenders do not leave traces. From the scarce use of Article 261 Gcc for tackling organised criminality, it can be inferred that the measure is not serving for one of the purposes declared by the legislature when introducing the offence. In addition, it can be hypothesised that other measures may be more suitable to tackle 'gross money laundering'. Given the high number of STRs filed and the low number of money laundering charges and of convictions deriving from the STRs since the introduction of the laws, it can be assumed that the system has been anyway maintained because it still provides some sort of benefits. It can be hypothesised that one benefit is the number of information provided to law enforcement agencies. This amount of recorded information is helpful not only to support further indictments, but also to increase the personnel awareness about the ever-changing money laundering techniques and schemes. Again the effect of the 'law in action' differs in respect to the declared legislative intentions, which justified the criminalisation of money laundering with the necessity of tackling organised crime's economic power. By spelling out this function, the assessment on the effectiveness of the law - as the possibility of collecting information - can be positive. Yet, this effect could be considered a social cost rather than a benefit. On a theoretical side, many scholars see the recording of personal information by private actors as an infringement of the right to privacy.24 On a more practical side such mechanism imposes significant costs on the designated businesses and professions that are in charge of collecting the data.25 When compared to the effective outcomes of the preventive regulations, in terms of law enforcement results, this aspect does not seem to win a cost-benefit analysis, as showed in the quoted researches. If one considers the advantages in terms of information collected, the policy may be considered worth the burden imposed, instead. However, the fact that the laws would have an effective impact on the long run on the fight against money laundering and organised crime may be seen as a diminished deterrence effect, because perpetrators would have the time to adapt to the new laws and find new ways of circumventing them. A collateral effect of the long-run effectiveness of the policy hypothesised on the basis of the outcomes of the research on the implementation is the fact that perpetrators could take advantage of the initiated but not completed cases, by acquiring knowledge about law enforcement strategies and thus develop subterfuges to elude them. On the contrary, it seems that the legislature is always running after to cope with the offenders' ever-new strategies. In fact, regulations about a new sector are updated when there is evidence that there is a risk of money laundering in that specific sector. Yet, offenders might have already moved their laundering activities to another sector. On the assumption that the inclusion of the reckless conduct would have potentially criminalised daily activities, a focus was posed on the number of convictions related to Article 261 (5) Gcc26 to verify the target of the criminal provision. Since 2005 a high number of convictions have been actually referring to reckless money laundering. This shows that the offence is used to punish primarily 'petty money laundering'. This fact can also be inferred from the relevant number of money laundering cases to the detriment of senior citizens, signalled by the FIU in the recent years. Also the fact that a significant number of STRs is filed in relation to the 'financial agents' phenomenon' is a symptom that the preventive mechanism targets more 'small fishes' rather than big perpetrators. Individuals convicted for the reckless conduct may be even victims of a fraud perpetrated by criminal networks. However, the criminal network acting behind the offender remains undetected. If on the one side it cannot be claimed that such offenders, given the lower degree of culpability should not be punished at all, on the other side this effect of the law involves a change of paradigm. The money laundering offence was initially introduced with the goal of tackling serious crimes. The observed effect, however, changes the function and the nature of the law, so that Article 261 Gcc could be considered rather a 'blue collar crime' more than a 'white collar crime'. From the analysis on the quality of STRs filed to the FIU, it can be inferred that certain designated professions and businesses are very reluctant in filing STRs, despite their notably exposure to money laundering risks. The list of designated professions and businesses has been amplified over the years exactly with the goal of facing this transfer of crime from one area to the other. Yet some professionals, such as legal advisors, do not report them, although they possess the capacity of recognising illicit transactions. The fact that some sectors do not actively participate in the effort of preventing money laundering, by allowing criminal proceedings to enter the legitimate economy, may lead to a general ineffectiveness of the system, because it can significantly hinder the capacity of the whole anti-money laundering system to respond to the ability of offenders to move their field of activity there where the law is lax. The provision does generate some instrumental effects by punishing offenders and by triggering a cooperation directed at signalling suspicious transactions between the obliged entities and law enforcement. However, some of the effects do not seem to completely fulfil the legislature's declared goals. For example the chapter seems to prove wrong the legislature's expectation of tackling the grey area by punishing gate-keepers or the attributed function of eliminating organised and serious crime. Given the high costs of implementation highlighted by the cost-benefits analyses, the rather low outcomes seem to be insufficient to fulfil the legislature's goals. Since it is sufficient that without latent functions it would be impossible to explain the adoption and maintenance of a legal act,27 it can be concluded that the intents declared by lawmakers do not satisfy the reasons why the provision was introduced. This opens up the hypothesis that Article 261 Gcc is an example of a symbolic legislation, which has been enacted with the purpose of compromising a complex parliamentarian debate. The analysis of the law-making process has revealed the existence of different expectations attributed to the introduction of Article 261 Gcc. Expectations that were conflicting with each other had to be negotiated and were compromised through the formulation of a vague offence that allowed different interpretations. Yet, the implementation of the law has led to the re-emersion of some of the conflicting situations. In addition, given that the policy regulates a complex and multifaceted issue new conflicts have emerged through its enforcement. The effects triggered by the norm can be indeed perceived positively or negatively by the different actors involved. In particular five principal conflicting situations have surfaced from the interviews. The first issue is the role played by external actors in the law-making process and the constant influence exercised by those actors in the process of updating the policy. The imposition of a US American approach to money laundering control through the role of the FATF has also been highlighted in the second chapter. Specifically, some scholars see the development of a global prohibition regime fostered by the US in the diffusion of anti-money laundering law. According to this literature, the powerful state creates an international regime focussed on achieving its own goals through global acceptance triggered by the securitisation rhetoric and compliance processes imposed through the menace of exclusion by international business relations. The second conflict that emanates from the words of the respondents is the one of the demand for criminal law to face financial misbehaviours and the necessity of limiting the tendency of expanding criminal law on the background of a situation of financial instability. Given the previous deregulation of the market, policy makers need to control and sanction economic abuse in order to protect fair competition and law-abiding individuals. On the other hand, the state needs to respect fundamental principles, such as the rule of law and the principle of ultima ratio that imposes a restriction of the use of criminal law in situations in which no other measures are suitable. This conflict has already been raised along the formulation of the money laundering offence with regards to the question of the interests protected by the law. Despite the legislator tying to limit the scope of the offence by attributing to Article 261 Gcc the protection of the administration of justice and of the interests protected by the predicate offences, this explanation was not considered suitable to the peculiarity of the offence. Indeed, shortly after the enactment, legal scholarship and the judiciary entered in a vivid debate in order to identify more suitable interests protected by the law, among them the financial and economic system under different perspectives. However, as chapter three shows, no solution could be found. In fact, the question concerning the suitability of criminal law to tackle illicit financial flows is perceived in the current research as still unsolved. The matter does not only concern money laundering control. On the contrary, it is a fairly widespread issue that has recently emerged due to the tendency of hardening economic crimes on the background of a situation of financial instability. The third conflict can be summarised as the following: on the one hand the policy being required to interfere with the personal sphere of suspected money launderers; on the other hand private institutions being interested in protecting their relations with loyal and trusted customers. Therefore, they are reluctant to give law enforcement the possibility to interfere too much in their business. The interest manifested by the private sector involved in the prevention of money laundering seems thus to collide with the legislative intent of preventing the infiltration of dirty money by way of preventing gate-keepers to help money launderers. The clash emerges at a micro-economic level and is triggered by the fact that the anti-money laundering policy demands an active participation by private sector in the detection of suspects. Private actors, are not appropriate to bear the burden of detecting offenders, moreover they need to protect the relationships with customers by avoiding unnecessary interferences. At the same time, the privatisation of crime control is questionable also from a governance point of view. It seems therefore that the public interest in persecuting crimes through having access to personal information from the private sector only marginally collides with the interest of protecting the right to privacy. Businesses and professions are predominantly interested in not interfering with their clients and in not bearing the burden of detecting offenders. The issue was also addressed during the national Parliamentarian debate, with regards to the degree of mens rea required for money laundering criminal liability. Making everybody taking part in economic or financial activities actively participating in the monitoring of the economic system under the threat of criminal liability for negligent money laundering was considered harmful for the business market. The same debate has been picked up by legal scholarship too. Yet, it seems that, despite the law being the result of negotiations, the question is still open. The fourth issue consists of discording opinions with regards to the opportunity of including tax evasion as predicate offence for money laundering. On one hand there is the interest of tackling tax evasion through the anti-money laundering regime, on the hand the concern of keeping the two phenomena distinct in order to avoid an overrating of money laundering. Since the genesis of the anti-money laundering policy, some actors taking part in the international law-making process, opposed the labelling of 'black money', naming money deriving from tax violations, as 'dirty money', indicating all proceeds of crime typically committed by organised crime. This distinction was based on the perception that tax-related offences were less serious and less harmful than capital flight and were advocated by financial centres in order to maintain a good reputation while still granting peculiar financial services, such as bank secrecy. This issue is a good example of the labelling theory, to the extent that it shows how a practice that was firstly not considered criminal enough to amount to a predicate offence for money laundering, has become part of the scope of the anti-money laundering regime on the basis of a political decision of labelling it as such. Respondents of the current research show to have different perceptions of the degree of the seriousness of tax laws violations and thus about the appropriateness and necessity of tackling them under the umbrella of the anti-money laundering policy. Again, the matter, which seemed to have been resolved through the negotiations on an international and European level, is still being debated at national level. The last two contrasting interests are the necessity of regulating the flows of money and the free movements of capitals in a neoliberal economy. The question is intrinsic in the nature of money laundering, which is a phenomenon that happens at the interface between legality and illegality. Regulations that facilitate the licit exchange of goods, capitals and services do also facilitate the flow of ill-gotten gains; there are thus conflicting interests between the public interest of persecuting crime and the claims for less regulation in a free market economy. From the interviews surfaced that not only opinions on the effectiveness of the law differ, but the very concept of effectiveness is perceived differently among the interview partners. Perceptions about how effective the anti- money laundering policy is appear to be similar among respondents belonging to the same experts' group. In particular, given the fact that the policy triggers many preliminary investigations, investigators work on a daily basis with the provision. This led to their opinion on the implementation of the legislation being rather positive. Positive opinions have common ground: they assert that the policy is not a simple one to implement, however, they believe that the legal practice has found its way through. On the contrary, defence attorneys specialised in economic crimes do not receive a significant amount of clients suspected for money laundering. For this reason they tend to have a rather negative opinion on the policy's effectiveness, also driven by the perception that the policy is not able to achieve the indirect goals. The diverse concepts of effectiveness provided by disciplines close to the sociology of law and the different definitions of effectiveness given by sociologists of law turn out to be useful here. Particularly the notions of 'efficiency' and of 'efficiency regardless of the goals' are proved very useful to interpret the respondents' opinions. Efficiency, is according to the administrative legal approach, the optimal relation between the goals achieved and the instruments used. A subcategory of this concept is the efficiency calculated through a cost-benefit analysis, of which some examples have been presented in the fourth chapter, which defines efficiency as the functioning of a legal order without assessing the goals achieved. This type of analysis focuses on the correctness of the operating system since the purpose of the system is its own existence. It refers to a whole legal order rather than to a specific single provision. Given that the anti-money laundering policy constitutes a legal order, due to the diverse regulations involved and the competent authorities created in order to achieve the goals of the policy, this notion can be applied. In the field of administrative legal theories, the first chapter has focussed on the approach that considers the (in)effectiveness of a law depending on its (failing) enforcement. A high degree of compliance of the anti-money laundering legislation might correspond to a high level of effectiveness of the policy with respect to its direct function, but at the same time to a rather low level of effectiveness with regards to its indirect purposes. The way to evaluate the degree of effectiveness is therefore also different. While compliance with legal provisions is calculated through a quantitative assessment of the processes in force and of the functioning of the system, the achievement of the indirect functions is measured on the impact of the policy. Interview partners have different perceptions about the indirect functions of the legislation too. This reflects, once again, the fact that the policy was a result of a compromise between different expectations and that the legislator was not able to limit the scope of its application to a particular goal. The different expectations and intents, which already emerged in the doctrinal debate about the legally protected interests, appears again in the different perceptions of the interviewees. The respondents were asked about the legislation's effectiveness with regards to one of the indirect functions, namely the capacity to deter organised crime. The legislator enacted the money laundering offence in the context of the fight against drug trafficking and other forms of organised crime, thus Article 261 Gcc's expressed rationale is the prevention and repression of organised crime. Finally, a relevant outcome regards the respondents' opinions on article 261 Gcc's latent symbolic function. Some of them agree with this. Others strongly oppose the hypothesis. They argue instead that the policy has instrumental effects on their daily practice, which cannot be defined as purely symbolic. According to most respondents, the law cannot be defined as symbolic, because it has led to instrumental effects. In the first place information gathered thanks to the GwG is used to start preliminary investigations under Article 261 Gcc. Secondly, the structure enacted to comply with the anti-money laundering policy is attainable and is visible and cannot be denied. Thirdly, the law is considered necessary because it labels a deviant behaviour. In particular, despite the fact that investigations do not lead to a conviction for money laundering they allow investigators to collect information in support of criminal cases for the predicate offences or to start a preliminary investigation for a predicate offence. In this sense, the function of the 'law in action', despite being questionable, is objectively instrumental. However, the fact that the law serves the purpose of tackling predicate offences through the support of investigations does not exclude the hypothesis that the law was enacted to pursue latent functions too. According to the sociologist Aubert, it is not necessary that the latent goal is the only one that plays a role, but it is necessary that the other purposes would not explain the analysed phenomenon completely. Indeed, in the opinions of those who exclude the symbolic function, yet the results achieved through compliance do not legitimate the burden imposed by the legislation. In other words, it seems that they recognise that the purpose of compliance cannot completely explain the policy makers' motivation, which re-opens the doors for the hypothesis of the existence of latent functions. In fact, such a demanding policy cannot be accepted for the sole purpose of re-enforcing the action of the criminal justice system in tackling predicate offences. On the other hand, compliance with the policy in terms of building of a structure and of expertise does not automatically mean fulfilling the policy's purpose. Particularly the creation of new professionalism, has been interpreted by scholars as a sign given to the public that the policy has produced certain effects. In conclusion, on the background of the research's outcome, the paper tries to reply to the question: (How) can the effectiveness of the money laundering offence be improved? While technical hindrances can (and perhaps) will be removed through legal reforms, 28 the inherent political economic and financial conflicting interests that impede a higher level of effectiveness are more difficult to solve. In contemporary industrialised economies there is a complicated and sometimes shifting boundary between legitimate and illegitimate transactions. This is particularly exacerbated in the context of financial capitalism, which 'subordinates the capitalist productive process to the circulation of money and monetary assets and hence to the accumulation of money profits'. Since the very beginning, determining the boundary between an area defined as 'criminal' and the space of 'legality' has been controversial. In fact, money has a neutral nature, pecunia non olet, making profit, irrespective of the monies' origin, is a very strong interest for both private and public entities, which collides with the one of eliminating illicit financial flows. In other words criminal policy goals diverge from purely economic interests. While one can assume the justice and correctness of the current financial system, and thus describes money laundering as harmful because it interferes with the existing economic order, one can also assume that the capitalist system leads per se to injustice and inequality, and that money laundering is actually embedded in this profit-oriented system and represents just the darker side of the capitalist economy. A compromised viewpoint is the one that describes money laundering as an accepted collateral effect of the capitalist system, that is to say 'a certain amount of illicit financial flows may be considered an acceptable price to pay for a market where free mobility of capital is guaranteed'. In other words, money laundering is intrinsic in or at least exacerbated by the capitalist system.

C ontents -- Part 1. Theory -- To Understand Economics, Follow the Money: To Understand Ecosystems, Follow the Energy -- Two Views of Ecology, Evolution, and Conservation -- Why I Wrote this Book -- Dualities Still Impede Conservation Efforts -- The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform of Biodiversity -- Targets for Conservation -- Evolving Objectives -- Literature Review -- Updating Ecosystem Ecology -- References -- What Can We Learn by Studying Ecosystems that We Can't Learn from Studying Populations? -- The Predator-Prey Conundrum -- The Serengeti Ecosystem -- Evolution in the "Ecological Theater" -- Predator-Prey Interactions Tell Only Part of the Story -- Evolution in the "Thermodynamic Theater" -- References -- A Thermodynamic Definition of Ecosystems -- Ecosystems in the 20th Century -- Cycling of Strontium-90 -- Cesium-137 in Food Chains -- Recycling of Isotopes in Norwegian Sheep -- Ecological Energetics -- Is it Time to Bury the Ecosystem Concept? -- A Thermodynamic Definition of Life -- A Thermodynamic Definition of Ecosystems -- The Phase Transition between Order and Chaos -- References -- Thermodynamic Characteristics of Ecosystems -- Equilibrium -- The Equilibrium Law -- Thermodynamic Equilibrium -- Open Thermodynamic Systems -- Ecosystems are Thermodynamically Open Non-Equilibrium Systems -- Work is Performed by Non-equilibrium Systems -- Advantage of a Thermodynamically Open System -- 4.3 Ecosystems are Entropic -- 4.4 Ecosystems are Cybernetic -- Cybernetic Systems -- Economic Systems are Cybernetic Ecosystems are Cybernetic -- The Ecosystem Feedback Function -- Indirect vs. Direct Feedback -- Deviation Dampening and Amplifying Feedback -- Set Points -- Ecosystems are Autocatalytic -- Ecosystems have Boundaries -- Ecosystems are Hierarchical -- Hierarchy in Physical Systems -- Hierarchy in Ecological Systems -- Common Currencies -- Macro-and Micro-System Models -- Why an Ecosystem Model that Includes Everything is not Possible -- A Nested Marine Community -- Ecosystems are Deterministic -- Ecosystems are Information Rich -- An Engineering Definition of Information -- Information to Facilitate Exchange -- High Energy Information -- Low Energy Information -- Information Theory -- Genetic Information -- Ecosystems are Non-Teleological -- Criticisms of Ecosystem Models -- References -- Ecosystem Control: A Top-Down View -- Two Ways to Look at Systems -- Composing and Decomposing Trophic Webs -- Decomposers in Soil Organic Matter -- Decomposers in Marshes and Mangroves -- Control of Systems -- Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up -- Top-Down Exogenous Control -- Exogenous Impacts and Stability -- Top-Down Endogenous Control -- Endogenous Control through Nutrient Recycling -- Autocatalysis -- Control of Microbial Activity -- Inhibition of Microbial Activity by Leaf Sclerophylly -- Inhibition of Microbial Activity Chemical Defenses -- Inhibition of Microbial Activity by Ecological Stoichiometry -- The Synchrony Principle -- The Decay Law -- Direct Nutrient Cycling -- The Role of Animals -- Indirect Interactions -- Marine Systems -- Nutrient and Energy Recycling -- Exogenous Control -- Control in Lakes -- Control in Managed Ecosystems -- References -- Ecosystem Control: A Bottom-Up View -- Species as Arbitrageurs of Energy -- Relation Between Rate of Flow and Mass in Hydraulic Systems -- Relation Between Population Biomass and Rate of Energy Flow -- Equilibrium -- Mechanisms of Adjustment -- Adjustments and Climate Change -- Bird Populations -- Dis-equilibrium -- Population Instability vs. Ecosystem Instability -- Control by Interactions: Direct vs. Indirect -- Indirect Interactions -- Direct Interactions -- Predator – Prey -- Mutualisms -- Competition -- Decomposition -- Parasitism and Disease -- Commensalism and Amensalism -- Persistence of Negative Interactions -- References -- Ecosystem Stability -- Background -- A Thermodynamic Definition -- Regime Shift -- Metastability -- Pulsed Stability -- Resistance and Resilience -- Species Richness and Functional Stability -- Species Richness and Cultural Values -- Keystone Species, and Population and Ecosystem Stability -- 7.5.1 Keystone Species in the Yellowstone region of Wyoming -- References -- 8. Case Studies of Ecosystem Control and Stability -- Walden -- "Harmony in Nature" -- Feedback Produces Nature's "Harmony" -- Feedback Mechanisms -- Perturbations in Amazon Rain Forests -- Top-Down Control -- The San Carlos Project: A Small-scale, Low Intensity, Short Duration Disturbance -- 8.3.2 The Jarí Project: A Large-scale, High Intensity, Long Duration Disturbance -- Bottom-Up Control -- The El Verde Project -- The Long-Term Ecological Research Project in Puerto Rico -- The Lago Guri Island Project -- The Biological Dynamics of Tropical Rainforest Fragments Project -- What have Case Studies Taught us about Stability of Tropical Ecosystems? -- Tropical Ecosystems are Stable -- Tropical Ecosystems are Unstable -- Energy Flow in Tropical Savannas and Rain Forests -- Insects in Tropical Ecosystems -- Application of Lessons to Other Regions -- Relevance to Temperate Zones -- Relevance to Aquatic Ecosystems -- The Experimental Lakes Project (Ecosystem Control of Species) -- Lake Mendota Studies (Species Control of Ecosystems) -- 8.7 Case Studies as Tests of Thermodynamic Theory -- References -- Entropy and Maximum Power -- Entropy -- 9.2 Entropy in a Steel Bar -- Thermodynamic Equilibrium -- Entropic Gradients -- Capturing and Storing Entropy -- Evapotranspiration and Entropy Reduction -- Life is a Balance between Storing and Releasing Entropy -- The Law of Maximum Entropy Production -- Energy for Metabolism as well as Growth -- Unassisted Entropy Capture is a Unique Characteristic of Life.-9.6Entropy Storage by Ecosystems -- 9.6.1 What Causes Entropy to be Stored? -- 9.7 Capturing Pressure -- 9.8 Entropy and Time -- 9.8.1 Time's Speed Regulator -- Efficiency of Energy Transformations -- Passage of Time for Cats -- 9.9The Maximum Power Principle.-9.10 Optimum Efficiencies for a Truck and its Driver.-9.11 Sustainability -- References -- A Thermodynamic View of Succession -- 10.1 The Population View -- 10.2 The Thermodynamic View -- 10.2.1 Leaf Area Index and Succession -- 10.2.2 Power Output as a Function of Leaf Area Index -- 10.2.3 What Causes Changes in Leaf Area Index? -- 10.2.4 Maximum Entropy Production Principle -- 10.2.5 Successional Ecosystems Move Further from Thermodynamic Equilibrium -- 10.2.6 Entropy Storage by Animals -- 10.3 The Strategy of Ecosystem Development -- A Problem with Odum's Strategy -- Why Power Output Continues to Increase -- Revised Definition of Maximum Power -- Costs of Ecosystem Stabilization -- Transactional Costs -- Succession, Power Output, and Efficiency -- 10.5.1 Kleiber's Law -- Are Ecosystems Spendthrifts? -- Interactions Between Species Facilitate Increase in Power Output -- Facilitation -- Tolerance -- Inhibition -- Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis -- Nutrient Use Efficiency during Succession -- Succession Following Logging vs Following Agriculture -- 10.10 Thermodynamic View of Succession: Implications for Resource Management -- References -- Panarchy -- The Universal Cycle of Systems -- Panarchy -- Thermodynamic Interpretation of the Sacred Rules -- 11.2.1 Growth and Consolidation -- 11.2.2 Collapse -- Renewal -- Sub-systems -- Panarchy over 2 Billion Years of Evolution -- Consolidation, Bureaucracy and System Collapse -- Bureaucracy in Action (Case Studies) -- Case Study: Panarchy in the Georgia Piedmont -- Thermodynamic Interpretation -- References -- 12. A Thermodynamic View of Evolution -- 12.1 Life – A Physicist's View -- 12.1.1 Life is Produced by Capturing Entropy -- 12.1.2 The Origin of Life -- 12.2 Two Approaches to Evolution -- 12.2.1 The Eco-Evo-Devo View -- 12.2.2 The Thermodynamic View -- 12.2.3 Fitness -- 12.2.4 The "Goal" of Evolution -- 12.3 The Relationship between Species and Environment -- 12.3.1 Evolution's "Theater" -- 12.3.2 Is Evolution Stochastic or Deterministic? -- 12.4 Ecosystem Evolution -- 12.4.1 Succession was the Clue -- 12.4.2 Ecosystems Moved away from Equilibrium -- 12.4.3 Thermodynamic Mechanisms -- 12.4.4 Biological Mechanisms -- 12.4.5 Ecosystem Fitness -- 12.4.6 Ecosystems Evolve One Step at a Time -- 12.5. The Origin of Ecosystems -- 12.5.1 Origin of Feedback Loops -- 12.5.2 Origin of Trophic Levels -- 12.5.3 Why are there Trophic Levels? -- 12.6 The "Goal" of Ecosystem Evolution -- 12.6.1 Conflicting Goals? -- 12.6.2 "Motivations" of Species -- 12.6.3 The Earth Ecosystem -- 12.6.4 Why is there Resistance to the Idea of Ecosystem Evolution? -- 12.6.5 Evolution of Economic Systems -- 12.7 A Thermodynamic Model of Ecosystem Evolution -- 12.7.1 Network Models -- 12.7.2 Increase in Complexity of Trophic Webs -- 12.7.3 Evolution of Trophic Webs -- 12.7.4 Life Moves Ashore -- 12.8 Biodiversity and the Five Great Extinctions -- 12.8.1 The Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) Boundary Extinction -- 12.8.2The Amazing Sustainability of Trophic Chains -- 12.8.3 A Test of Thermodynamic Theory -- 12.9 Panarchy and Evolution -- 12.10 Thermodynamic Requirements for Living Systems on Other Planets -- References -- -- Why is Species Diversity Higher in the Tropics? -- 13.1 Tropical Explorations -- 13.2 A Few Theories -- 13.3 A Thermodynamic Explanation -- 13.3.1 The Latitudinal Energy Gradient -- 13.3.2 The Latitudinal Productivity Gradient -- 13.3.3 The Data -- 13.3.4 Other Factors Affecting Productivity -- 13.4 Empirical Evidence for a High Productivity High Diversity Correlation -- 13.5 Humboldt's Enigma -- 13.5.1 Are Productivity and Species Richness Correlated on Tropical -- Mountains? -- 13.6 The Mechanism Linking Productivity and Diversity -- 13.7 Answer to "Why is Species Diversity Higher in the Tropics?" -- 13.7.1 Differences within the Tropics -- 13.8 Why is Species Diversity Low at High Latitudes? -- 13.9 An Economic Perspective on D.

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Reports Monday that Israel has killed a major Hezbollah commander comes after what is described as the militants' first act of retaliation against Israel following the assassination of senior Hamas official Saleh Al-Arouri in southern Beirut. This development threatens to jeopardize U.S.-led efforts to calm the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli front, after Hezbollah's leadership appeared to signal a conditional willingness to engage in such a processReuters reported on Monday that an Israeli strike on south Lebanon killed Wissam al-Tawil a senior commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan force.Meanwhile, Hezbollah issued a statement Saturday saying it had launched a barrage of 62 rockets at an Israeli air surveillance base located at Mount Meron in Northern Israel. According to the statement the rocket attack struck the intended target in what it said was a preliminary response to the assassination of Al-Arouri, indicating that the score with Israel has yet to be settled over the killing of the Hamas official. The Israeli side meanwhile confirmed that 40 rockets were launched towards the base, without further elaborating as to whether the rockets had reached their target. But according to Israeli daily Haaretz on Sunday night, the Israelis are now saying the operation inflicted heavy damage on its military facility. The Israeli military meanwhile announced that it carried out a large-scale operation against Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon in response to the Shiite movement's operation. According to the Israeli army "significant assets" belonging to the movement were hit in the attacks. These developments come after Hezbollah's secretary general Hassan Nasrallah on Friday vowed retaliation for Al-Arouri's assassination, which marked the first Israeli military operation targeting the Lebanese capital since the 2006 war with Hezbollah.Despite the soaring tensions however the situation remains tenuous but contained, at least for now. "Hezbollah's operation is more than escalation and less than conflagration," explained retired Lebanese army general Elias Hanna in an interview with RS. "For its part Israel is relying on America for munitions and firepower," he added, stressing that Hezbollah was 10 times stronger than Hamas. "In case of full-blown war with Hezbollah, Israel would therefore need to rely even more on the U.S., which is against such a war," he stated.The latest round of escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli front has nevertheless sparked fears of a full-blown conflict. Addressing reporters in Beirut, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned of the risks of Lebanon becoming embroiled in a large-scale conflagration. "It is absolutely necessary to avoid Lebanon being dragged into a regional conflict," he underscored. Borrell's agenda in Beirut also included talks with the head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc Mohammad Raad. This marked the first meeting between a senior Western official and a representative from the Shiite movement since the eruption of violence on the Lebanese-Israeli front on October 8. It comes as the Biden administration is intensifying its efforts to reach a land demarcation deal between Lebanon and Israel. Washington's push for launching talks over a potential deal stems from its fears of a full-blown war on the Lebanese-Israeli front.President Joe Biden's special advisor for energy and infrastructure Amos Hochstein is spearheading these efforts. Hochstein, who successfully mediated the maritime border deal reached between Lebanon and Israel in 2022, recently visited Israel to discuss the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli front and a possible land border agreement. Nasrallah did not rule out his party's readiness to engage in U.S.-sponsored talks over such a deal, emphasizing, however, that this cannot take place before a permanent ceasefire is reached in Gaza."Any talks, negotiation or dialogue will only take place or achieve a result after halting the aggression against Gaza," declared Nasrallah in his Friday address.Hezbollah's leader also appeared to lay down his conditions for a potential deal. They not only included Israel's withdrawal from what Lebanon says is occupied territories in the villages of the Shebaa farms and Ghajjar, but also an end to all Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty. "We stand before a historic opportunity to liberate every inch of Lebanese territory and to prevent the enemy from violating Lebanese sovereignty on land, in the air and at sea," he asserted.Nasrallah's statements echo what Hezbollah officials privately say about the movement not being opposed in principle to the idea of talks or negotiations over the border."Declaring that there will be no talks pertaining to this issue prior to a ceasefire in Gaza indicates that Hezbollah is open in principle to such talks," according to one Hezbollah official who spoke to RS on condition of anonymity. RS can also reveal that officials from the Shiite party have stated in closed-door meetings with European diplomats that the U.S.-brokered maritime deal between Lebanon and Israel could facilitate talks over a possible land agreement. Importantly, these statements suggest that Hezbollah remains ready to engage in U.S.-led mediation efforts despite the Biden administration's virtually unconditional support for Israel in the current conflict in Gaza.Hezbollah's conditional readiness to engage in such a process under U.S. auspices, and its continued reluctance to take action that would initiate all-out war, provide a strong impetus for the Biden administration to pressure Israel into agreeing to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, not least given Washington's stated goal of preventing a major flare-up on the Lebanese-Israeli front. Full-scale conflict on this front would undermine U.S. interests in Lebanon, which remains one of the region's most pivotal countries and the gateway of the West to the Middle East. Despite its close ties with Israel, Washington continues to wield significant influence in Lebanon. The Lebanese army, which is the country's most respected institution, is one of the world's largest recipients of American military aid. Army officers and soldiers also frequently travel to the United States as part of their training programs. Washington's success in brokering the maritime border deal further cemented its role as a critical player in Lebanon, particularly given that the country technically remains in a state of war with Israel. By failing to push for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, on the other hand, the U.S. runs a real risk of war on the Lebanese-Israeli front. This owes in no small part to a "real men go to Beirut '' mindset that appears to be prevalent amongst some members of the Israeli political and military elite. Just as U.S. neoconservatives adopted the slogan "real men go to Tehran" after the U.S. invaded Iraq and toppled the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003, so do some of the more radical Israeli officials appear to be itching for war with Hezbollah. The Washington Post has also revealed that U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may resort to escalation on the Lebanese front for domestic political considerations. Regardless of how such a war would play out, it will be seen by many, particularly across the Arab world, as backed and enabled by Washington. However, contrary to the situation in 2006 when the Israelis last attacked the Lebanese capital, the world has returned to an era of great power competition with nations like China and Russia seeking to enhance their role in the Middle East. Both Beijing and Moscow are challenging U.S. influence in the region, with the former successfully mediating the resumption of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the latter intervening militarily on behalf of Syrian President Bashar Assad. China and Russia's refraining from adopting an anti-Hamas stance in the conflict in Gaza is another indicator of their intent to compete with the United States in the region. An all-out war on the Lebanese-Israeli front will only serve to undermine U.S. influence in Lebanon in ways that can only benefit China and Russia. Both countries would likely be tempted to expand their influence in Lebanon given its geopolitical importance. And it likely would add to the already formidable influence enjoyed by Iran, which backs Hezbollah, in Lebanon.