Suchergebnisse

Verkehr und Information

(Siehe dazu auch das downloadbare PDF-Dokument zu dieser Studie)

Die Entwicklung der regionalen Wirtschaft, des Handels und damit des Wohlstands hängen eng mit der zur Verfügung stehenden Verkehrsinfrastruktur zusammen. Der Verkehrssektor sorgt für die Mobilität von Personen sowie den effizienten Austausch von Gütern und Nachrichten und lässt die Bedeutung räumlicher Distanzen in den Hintergrund treten. Hierbei sind sämtliche Bereiche des Verkehrs- und Informationswesens von Bedeutung. In verschiedenen Studien konnten große wirtschaftliche Modernisierungseffekte für die frühe Neuzeit durch die Entwicklung des Postverkehrs in festen Fahrplänen sowie den Bau von Chausseen nachgewiesen werden. Die Innovationen im Bereich der Telekommunikation beschleunigen den Austausch von Informationen um ein Vielfaches, frühere Technologien werden ergänzt oder sogar vollkommen ersetzt durch neue Formen der Informationsvermittlung. (Ein Beispiel ist das Telegramm, das Ende des 19. Jh. und Anfang des 20. Jh. eine hilfreiche und schnelle Form der Nachrichtenübermittlung war, da es wenig Telefone gab und die Briefe eine Laufzeit von ca. 4 Tagen hatten. Im 21. Jh. werden Telegramme nur selten eingesetzt. Das Telegramm hat an Bedeutung verloren, da das Kommunikationsnetz ausgebaut wurde und mittlerweile modernere Möglichkeiten der Datenübertragung wie z.B. SMS, E-Mail, Instant Messaging, zur Verfügung stehen.) Später wurden hinsichtlich der Entwicklung und des Ausbaus des Eisenbahnverkehrs ähnliche Effekte für den Warenhandel und die Integration von Regionen in den überregionalen nationalen Markt und in den Welthandel für die Zeit der industriellen Revolution nachgewiesen. Es soll versucht werden, die quantitative Entwicklung von Indikatoren zu den verschiedenen Verkehrsbereichen Eisenbahn, Kraftfahrzeuge, Binnen- und Seeschifffahrt, Luftverkehr sowie Post- und Nachrichtenverkehr über einen möglichst langen Zeitraum wiederzugeben, um so aufbereitete Zeitreihen der Forschung zur Verfügung zu stellen.

Die vorliegende Datensammlung zum Themenbereich 'Verkehr und Information' enthält insgesamt 75 Zeitreihen, die sich auf den Zeitraum vom Beginn der Amtlichen Statistik zur Zeit des Deutschen Reiches im Jahr 1870 bis zur heutigen Bundesrepublik in den Grenzen vom 3. Oktober 1990 erstrecken; es soll also, soweit es die Quellen erlauben, der Zeitraum von 1870 bis 2010 statistisch wiedergegeben werden. Aufgrund der sich häufig ändernden Erhebungssystematiken sowie durch die Folgen des 1. und des 2. Weltkrieges können nicht für alle Zeitreihen kontinuierlich Daten für den gewünschten Zeitraum zur Verfügung gestellt werden. Entweder liegen für die Zeitabschnitte während der Kriege keine Daten vor oder aber die Vergleichbarkeit insbesondere bei unterschiedlicher Erhebungssystematik ist stark eingeschränkt. Letzeres Problem tritt in besonderer Weise für die Statistik aus der Zeit der ehemaligen Deutschen Demokratischen Republik auf, aber auch die Statistik der früheren Bundesrepublik Deutschland (das Gebiet der alten Länder) kann erhebliche Brüche in der Systematik aufweisen. Der technische Fortschritt ist ein weiterer Grund, der das Fortführen kontinuierlicher Zeitreihen erschwert.

Die Zeitreihen zum Bereich 'Verkehr und Information' decken folgende Gebiete ab:
• 01: Eisenbahnen: Streckenlängen und Fahrzeugbestände (1850-2009)
• 02: Eisenbahnen: Personen- und Güterverkehr (1850-2002)
• 03: Straßenverkehr: Bestand an Kraftfahrzeugen (1902-2010)
• 04: Straßenverkehr: Straßenverkehrsunfälle (1906-2010)
• 05: Binnenschifffahrt: Bestand an Binnenschiffen (1872-2010)
• 06: Binnenschifffahrt: Güterverkehr auf den Binnenwasserstraßen (1909-2010)
• 07: Seeschifffahrt: Handelsschiffstonnage und Anzahl der Schiffe (1971-2010)
• 08: Seeschifffahrt: Güterumschlag bedeutender Seehäfen -
Hamburg, Bremische Häfen, Emden sowie Rostock, Wismar und Stralsund
(1925-2010)
• 09: Gewerblicher Luftverkehr (1919-2010)
• 10: Deutsche Reichs- und Bundespost, Telekommunikation (1871-2010)


Aufbau und Tabelleninhalt:

Zeitreihen zur Eisenbahn:
01: Eisenbahnen:
Streckenlängen und Fahrzeugbestände (1850-2009), Streckenlänge (alle Bahnen), Streckenlänge (Deutsche Reichsbahn-Bahn/Deutsche Bundesbahn), Fahrzeugbestände (alle Bahnen), Fahrzeugbestände (Deutsche Reichsbahn-Bahn/Deutsche Bundesbahn).

02: Eisenbahnen: Personen- und Güterverkehr (1850-2002)
Beförderte Personen (alle Bahnen), Geleistete Personenkilometer (alle Bahnen), Beförderte Güter (alle Bahnen), Geleistete Tonnenkilometer (alle Bahnen), Beförderte Personen (Deutsche Reichsbahn-Bahn/Deutsche Bundesbahn), Geleistete Personenkilometer (Deutsche Reichsbahn-Bahn/Deutsche Bundesbahn), Beförderte Güter (Deutsche Reichsbahn-Bahn/Deutsche Bundesbahn), Geleistete Tonnenkilometer (Deutsche Reichsbahn-Bahn/Deutsche Bundesbahn).


Zeitreihen zum Kraftfahrzeugverkehr:
03: Strassenverkehr: Bestand an Kraftfahrzeugen (1902-2010)
Kraftfahrzeuge insgesamt, Krafträder, Personenkraftwagen, Kraftomnibusse, Lastkraftfahrzeuge, Zugmaschinen, Sonderkraftfahrzeuge, Bevölkerung in 1000, Krafträder auf 1000 Einwohner, Personenkraftwagen auf 1000 Einwohner, Lastkraftfahrzeuge auf 1000 Einwohner.

04: Strassenverkehr: Straßenverkehrsunfälle (1906-2010)
Unfälle, Getötete, Verletzte.


Zeitreihen zur Binnenschifffahrt:
05: Bestand an Binnenschiffen (1872-2010)
Güterschiffe mit eigener Triebkraft (Anzahl), Güterschiffe mit eigener Triebkraft (Tragfähigk. in 1.000 t), Güterschiffe ohne eigene Triebkraft (Anzahl), Güterschiffe ohne eigene Triebkraft (Tragfähigk. in 1.000 t).

06: Güterverkehr auf den Binnenwasserstraßen (1909-2010)
Beförderte Güter (Mill. T.).
Zeitreihen zur Seeschifffahrt:
07: Handelsschiffstonnage und Anzahl der Schiffe (1871-2010)
Insgesamt, Anteil an Welthandelstonnage, Anzahl der Schiffe.

08: Güterumschlag bedeutender Seehäfen -
Hamburg, Bremische Häfen, Emden sowie Rostock, Wismar und Stralsund
(1925-2010)

Zeitreihen zur Luftfahrt:
09: Gewerblicher Luftverkehr (1919-2010)
Für deutsche Flughäfen: Beförderte Personen, Beförderte Luftfracht, Beförderte Luftpost.
Für deutsche Fluggesellschaften: Beförderte Personen, Personenkilometer (Pkm), Beförderte Luftfracht, Beförderte Luftfracht in Tonnenkilometer (Tkm), Beförderte Luftpost, Beförderte Luftpost in Tonnenkilometer (Tkm)

Zeitreihen zum Post- und Telekommunikationswesen:
10: Deutsche Reichs- und Bundespost, Telekommunikation (1871-2010)
Für das Deutsche Reich, die Alten Länder und die Neuen Länder bis 1990:
Beförderte Briefsendungen, Beförderte Paket- und Wertsendungen, Übermittelte Telegramme, Sprechstellen (Telefonanschlüsse), Ortsgespräche, Ferngespräche, Ton-Rundfunkgenehmigungen (Radioempfang), Fernseh-Rundfunkgenehmigungen.
Für Deutschland in den Grenzen vom 3. Oktober 1990 ab 1990:
Beförderte Briefsendungen, Beförderte Paket- und Wertsendungen, Übermittelte Telegramme, Sprechstellen (Kanäle) - Alle Service-Anbieter, Sprechstellen (Kanäle) - Dt. Telekom, Sprechstellen (Kanäle) - Wettbewerber der Telekom, Sprechstellen (Telefon-Anschlüsse) - Alle Service-Anbieter, Sprechstellen (Telefon-Anschlüsse) - Deutsche Telekom, Sprechstellen (Telefon-Anschlüsse) - Wettbewerber der Telekom, Mobilfunk, Teilnehmer, Verbindungsvolumen im Festnetz(in Mrd. Minuten; zuvor: Summe Ortsgespräche bzw. Ferngespräche) - Alle Service-Anbieter, Verbindungsvolumen im Festnetz(in Mrd. Minuten) - Dt. Telekom, Verbindungsvolumen im Festnetz(in Mrd. Minuten) - Wettbewerber, TAL-Anmietungen durch Wettbewerber der Deutschen Telekom (Mio Anmietungen), Ortsgespräche, Ferngespräche, Ton-Rundfunkgenehmigungen, Fernseh-Rundfunkgenehmigungen.


Zu den einzelnen Bereichen

Die Eisenbahn
Die Frage, ob die Eisenbahn als Staatsbahn oder als privat betriebenes Unternehmen geführt werden soll, begleitet die Eisenbahn schon seit ihren ersten Jahren. Vor allem in den wichtigen Handels- und Industriestädten werden in Deutschland private Aktiengesellschaften gegründet, um den Bau von Eisenbahnstrecken zu finanzieren. Dagegen setzt man in Baden und Braunschweig von Beginn an auf das Staatsbahnsystem. 1886 übernimmt schließlich der preußische Staat die bedeutende "Rheinische Eisenbahngesellschaft". Nach Ende des ersten Weltkrieges 1918 wurde die erste Verfassung eines demokratischen Staates, die Weimarer Verfassung 1919 für das Deutsche Reich beschlossen. Auf Grundlage dieser Verfassung wurde 1920 der Staatsvertrag zur Gründung der Deutschen Reichseisenbahnen in Kraft gesetzt. Die bis dahin noch den Ländern unterstellten staatlichen Eisenbahnen (bzw. Länderbahnen) gingen jetzt in Reichsbesitz über. Im Einzelnen waren dies:
die Königlich Bayerischen Staats-Eisenbahnen,
die Königlich Sächsischen Staatseisenbahnen,
die Königlich Württembergischen Staats-Eisenbahnen,
die Großherzoglich Badischen Staatseisenbahnen,
die Preußischen Staatseisenbahnen,
die Preußisch-Hessische Eisenbahngemeinschaft "K.P. u. G.H. StE",
die Großherzoglich Oldenburgischen Staatseisenbahnen und
die Großherzoglich Mecklenburgische Friedrich-Franz-Eisenbahn.
(Vergl.: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Reichsbahn_%281920%E2%80%931945%29)
Neben dieser Entwicklung waren in Deutschland immer sowohl staatseigene als auch private Bahnen tätig. Für die Zeit des Deutschen Reiches, für die ehemalige Bundesrepublik (alte Länder) sowie für Deutschland nach dem 1. Oktober 1990 werden daher die Angaben zu den aufgeführten Beständen jeweils für alle Bahnen zusammen und für die Staatsbahn im speziellen aufgeführt (d.i. Deutsche Reichsbahn, Deutsche Bundesbahn).
Zu der Entstehungsgeschichte der einzelnen deutschen Bahnen sowie den Entscheidungsphasen sind wertvolle Hinweise aus R. Fremdling und A. Kunz: Statistik der Eisenbahnen in Deutschland 1835 – 1989. Scripta Mercaturae Verlag, 1995, S. 19ff. zu entnehmen.


01: Eisenbahnen: Streckenlängen und Fahrzeugbestände (1850-2009)
Dieser Abschnitt enthält Zeitreihen zur Länge der Schienenstrecken und den Fahrzeugbeständen, die sich aufgliedern in Lokomotiven, Triebwagen, Personenwagen, Gepäckwagen und Güterwagen. Angaben für alle Bahnen zusammen zur Zeit des Deutschen Reiches sowie für die staatseigene Bundesbahn der ehemaligen Bundesrepublik Deutschland in den Grenzen von 1945 wurden – mit Ausnahme der Reihe zu den Triebwagen – bereits von R. Fremdling und A. Kunz im Rahmen ihrer Studie "Statistik der Eisenbahnen in Deutschland 1835 – 1989. Scripta Mercaturae Verlag, 1995" erhoben. Sie decken den Zeitraum 1850-1932 für das Deutsche Reich und 1950-1989 für die Alten Länder (also die ehemalige Bundesrepublik) ab. Ergänzt wurden diese Reihen für 1938 bis 1940 aus den Statistischen Jahrbüchern für das Deutsche Reich bzw. für 1989 bis1993 aus den Statistischen Jahrbüchern für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Zusätzlich zu den Reihen von Fremdlung/ Kunz wurden in dieser Studie für die entsprechenden Werte zur Länge des Schienennetzes sowie zum Fahrzeugbestand speziell für die staatliche Bahn des Deutschen Reiches, also für die Deutsche Reichsbahn, sowie für alle Bahnen der Bundesrepublik bis 1993 zusammengestellt. Für die Zusammenstellung der Streckenlängen und Fahrzeugbestände wurde daher sowohl auf die Ergebnisse dieser Studie als auch auf die Publikationen des Statistischen Bundesamtes zurückgegriffen.
Für die neuen Länder können für die Zeit der ehemaligen DDR nur zur Staatsbahn – also zu der Deutsche Reichsbahn – Angaben gemacht werden, da es zur Zeit der DDR keine privaten Bahnen gab. Neben dem Statistischen Jahrbuch für die DDR wurden hier die von dem Statistischen Bundesamt herausgegebenen Sonderreihen mit Beiträgen für das Gebiet der ehemaligen DDR und die darin enthaltenen verkehrsstatistischen Übersichten herangezogen. Für die ersten Jahre nach der Wiedervereinigung werden noch Werte für die Gebiete der alten Bundesrepublik und der ehemaligen DDR in den Statistischen Jahrbüchern für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland gesondert ausgewiesen. Ab 1994 werden die Bestände nur noch für Gesamtdeutschland nachgewiesen, so dass die Datenreihen jeweils für die Neuen Länder und die Alten Länder mit dem Jahr 1990, spätestens 1993 enden und nur noch für Deutschland in den Grenzen vom 3. Oktober 1990 fortgeführt werden können.
Die Schienenstrecken werden als Eigentumslänge mit Stand am Ende des jeweiligen Kalenderjahres wiedergegeben. Der Fahrzeugbestand bezieht sich immer auf den Stand am Ende des Rechnungs- bzw. Betriebsjahres. Bis 1937 werden Eigentumsbestände der Bahnen ausgewiesen. Anschließend beziehen sich die Werte auf den Einsatzbestand, d.h., in den angegebenen Werten können auch von anderen Bahngesellschaften für den eigenen Bahnbetrieb geliehene Bestände mit enthalten sein.
Die Bahn durchlief grundlegende technische Veränderungen.
In den alten Ländern, dem Tätigkeitsgebiet der Deutschen Bundesbahn, wurden sukzessiv bis 1977 alle Dampflokomotiven durch Elektro- und Diesellokomotiven ersetzt. Die Schienenstreckentypen wurden vereinheitlicht (vollständiger Abbau von Schienenstrecken für Schmalspurbahnen). Neue Wagentypen und Zugtypen (InterCity, TransEuroExpress) wurden eingeführt. Dies alles kann im Rahmen der vorliegenden Studie nicht detailliert in Form von statistischen Zeitreihen nachgezeichnet werden, da dies den zeitlichen Rahmen des Projektes sprengen würde. Die technischen Veränderungen insbesondere im Bereich der Fahrzeugbestände, und hier besonders in Bezug auf die Triebwagen (Lokomotiven, etc.) haben zu einer Veränderung der Systematik geführt. Um die Darstellung der Reihen möglichst konstant zu gestalten, wurden neu hinzugekommene Triebwagentypen bzw. weiter ausdifferenzierte Wagentypen, die in der Statistik gesondert aufgeführt wurden, soweit es möglich war, zu Oberbegriffen zusammengefasst. Dies wird in den jeweils betreffenden Zeitreihen für den Zeitraum, auf den diese Vorgehensweise angewendet wurde, in den Anmerkungen kenntlich gemacht. So werden ab 1990 im Statistischen Jahrbuch für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland unter dem Oberbegriff 'Triebwagen' die Kategorien 'Elektrische Lokomotiven', Diesellokomotiven', 'Elektrische Triebwagen' und 'Dieseltriebwagen' gesondert aufgeführt. Der Bestand der Lokomotiven wurde für die Vademecum-Studie durch die Aufaddierung der Kategorien 'Elektrische Lokomotiven' und 'Diesellokomotiven' erfasst. Dampflokomotiven wurden so lange erfasst, wie sie auch in den Statistischen Jahrbüchern der Bundesrepublik aufgeführt wurden. Für die Triebwagen wurde jeweils die Summe aus ´Elektrische Triebwagen´ und ´Dieseltriebwagen´ gebildet.


02: Eisenbahnen: Personen- und Güterverkehr (1850-2002)
Neben dem Fahrzeugbestand stellt die Leistung in den Bereichen der Personenbeförderung und der Güterbeförderung eine bedeutende betriebswirtschaftliche sowie verkehrsstatistische Größe dar. Der gemäß vergebenen Aufträgen durchgeführte Transport von Gütern inklusive der Be-, Um- und Ausladung, beinhaltet eine Vielzahl von Verkehrsunterstützungs-, Verkehrsvermittlungs- und Verkehrskoordinierungsprozessen. Zum einen kann die Verkehrsleistung in den absoluten Werten ausgedrückt werden, d.h. die Anzahl der transportierten Personen bzw. das Gewicht der transportierten Güter. Statistisch wird die Verkehrsleistung mit Hilfe einer Kennzahl zum Ausdruck gebracht, die für den Personentransport die Dimension »Pkm (Personenkilometer)« (= Personen X Kilometer) und für den Gütertransport die Dimension »tkm (Tonnenkilometer)« (= Tonnen X Kilometer) hat. Das Produkt aus der zurückgelegten Strecke und der Menge der transportierten Güter bzw. der beförderten Personen wird als 'Aufwandsgröße' im Transportwesen verstanden. Diese vier Größen werden jeweils für alle Bahnen zusammen sowie für die Deutsche Reichsbahn/Deutsche Bundesbahn im speziellen dargestellt – wobei für die neuen Bundesländer Angaben nur für die Deutsche Reichsbahn erhältlich sind. Auch hier kann für die Zeit des Deutschen Reiches auf die Studie von Fremdling und Kunz für alle Bahnen zusammen zurückgegriffen werden. Für die Deutsche Reichsbahn im speziellen werden die Angaben des Statistischen Reichsamtes in den herausgegebenen Jahrbüchern herangezogen. Für das Gebiet der alten Bundesländer stellen Fremdling und Kunz Kennzahlen für die Deutsche Bundesbahn zur Verfügung. Dementsprechend werden die Kennzahlen für alle in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (Alte Länder) tätigen Bahnen zusätzlich aus der amtlichen Statistik erhoben.


Der motorisierte Strassenverkehr:
Rainer Flik beschreibt in seinen Arbeiten "Motorisierung des Straßenverkehrs, Automobilindustrie und Wirtschaftswachstum in Europa und Übersee bis 1939" (in: M. Lehmann-Waffenschmidt (Hg., 2002): Perspektiven des Wandels - Evolutorische Ökonomik in der Anwendung. Metropolis – Verlag für Ökonomie.) und insbesondere "Von Ford lernen? Automobilbau und Motorisierung bis 1933. Köln: Böhlau, 2001" die Ursachen für die verzögerte Durchsetzung des Automobils als Transportmittel sowie die verspätete Motorisierung der deutschen Bevölkerung. Es waren seiner Analyse zu Folge die schlechteren Rahmenbedingungen für den Automobilmarkt und weniger Unterschiede in den Bedürfnissen der Bevölkerung oder im Unternehmerverhalten, die dem Automobil in Deutschland zunächst zum Nachteil gereichten. In den dicht besiedelten und durch die Eisenbahn und Strassenbahn (sog. Pferdeomnibusse und Pferdebahnen, später um 1880 sukzessive ersetzt durch die Elektrische Stadt- bzw. Strassenbahn) gut erschlossenen Ballungsräumen Deutschlands spielte zunächst das Automobil für die Wirtschaft und den Transport der Güter eine untergeordnete Rolle. Darüber hinaus waren hohe Investitionskosten für den Ausbau von Strassen notwendig, während die Schienenstrecken für die Eisenbahn in den deutschen Großstädten schon vorhanden waren. Daher wurde auch durch die Besteuerungspraxis des Staates das Automobil gegenüber der Eisenbahn zunächst benachteiligt, was zur Folge hatte, dass die Motorisierung des Mittelstandes langsamer verlief als beispielsweise in den USA. Erst in den 1920er Jahren hat das Lastkraftfahrzeug in den Ballungsräumen sich als Transportfahrzeug durchsetzen können, während der Personenkraftwagen noch als teures Luxusgut nur wenigen wohlhabenden Personen zugänglich war. Dagegen spielte das Motorrad für die Motorisierung der deutschen Bevölkerung eine entscheidende Rolle. Deutschland hatte in den 30er Jahren die höchste Motorraddichte und war der bedeutendste Motorradproduzent auf dem Weltmarkt. Als das Automobil technisch ausgereift war und die für den wirtschaftlichen Betrieb notwendige Infrastruktur geschaffen war, konnte sich der Diffusionsprozess schneller und erfolgreicher entfalten. Flik unterscheidet in dem Diffusionsprozess des Automobils in Deutschland drei Stadien: Motorisierung der Oberschicht, Motorisierung des Gewerbe treibenden Mittelstandes und schließlich die Massenmotorisierung (Flik, R.: 2005: Nutzung von Kraftfahrzeugen bis 1939 – Konsum- oder Investitionsgut? In: Walter, R. (Hrsg.): Geschichte des Konsums. Erträge der 20. Arbeitstagung der Gesellschaft für Sozial- und Wirtschaftsgeschichte, 23-26. April 2003 in Greifswald. Stuttgart: Franz Steiner). Für die Zeitreihen zum Kraftfahrzeugbestand in Deutschland wird auf die Studiendaten von Flick zurückgegriffen, welche durch Daten der amtlichen Statistik (Statistisches Bundesamt und Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt) ergänzt werden. Ein weiteres Kapitel (Tabelle 04) zeichnet die Entwicklung der Strassenverkehrsunfälle statistisch nach.


03: Bestand an Kraftfahrzeugen (1902-2010)
Der Bestand der Kraftfahrzeuge nach Kraftfahrzeugtyp spiegelt die Durchsetzung dieses Verkehrsmittels wieder. Es liegen Zeitreihen zum Bestand der Kraftfahrzeuge insgesamt und Kraftfahrzeuge untergliedert nach den Typen Motorrad, Personenkraftwagen, Kraftomnibusse, Lastkraftfahrzeuge, Zugmaschinen und schließlich Sonderkraftfahrzeuge vor. Weiterhin werden der Bestand an Motorrädern, Personenkraftwagen und Lastkraftwagen pro 1000 Einwohner wiedergegeben.
Aufgrund vorgenommener Korrekturen können die Werte zu den einzelnen Reihen zwischen den verschiedenen Ausgaben der statistischen Jahrbücher abweichen. Da Flik sich in seiner Studie auf die Angaben der amtlichen Statistik stützt, wurden Werte des Statistischen Bundesamtes dann den Werten von Flik vorgezogen, wenn diese Publikationen neueren Datums sind und von den Angaben bei Flik abweichen.
Für das Deutsche Reich sind die Angaben auf den jeweiligen Gebietsstand Deutschlands bezogen. Das Saarland ist von 1922 bis 1935 nicht eingeschlossen. Die Angaben für 1939 beruhen auf einer Fortschreibung des Kraftfahrzeugbestands von 1938 und schließen die 1938 und 1939 dem Deutschen Reich angeschlossenen Gebiete nicht ein. Die Daten geben den Bestand jeweils zum 1. Januar wieder. Ferner wird bis 1933 der Bestand ohne vorübergehend abgemeldete Fahrzeuge, ab 1934 inklusive der vorübergehend abgemeldeten Kraftfahrzeuge angegeben. Bis 1914 wurde in der Erfassung zwischen Personenkraftwagen und Kraftomnibussen keine Unterscheidung getroffen, so wurden beide in der Kategorie Personenkraftwagen wiedergegeben. Unter der Rubrik 'Sonderkraftfahrzeuge' werden Fahrzeuge der Kommunen (Kommunalfahrzeuge) aufgeführt, wie z.B.: Straßenreinigungsmaschinen, Feuerwehrfahrzeuge, sowie ab 1948 Krankenwagen. Weiterhin werden Abschlepp- u. Kranwagen sowie Wohnwagen u. ähnliche Fahrzeuge dieser Kategorie zugeordnet.
Der Kraftfahrzeugbestand insgesamt für das Gebiet der alten Länder (ehemalige Bundesrepublik) wurde aus den Daten zu den einzelnen Fahrzeugtypen berechnet.
Die Werte für die neuen Länder bzw. für die ehemalige DDR sind für die Zeit bis 1989 den Statistischen Jahrbüchern für die DDR entnommen worden. Für die Zeit von 1990-1994 wurde die Publikation 'Verkehr in Zahlen', vom Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung herausgegeben, herangezogen. Bei der Erfassung der Sonderkraftfahrzeuge und der Kraftomnibusse wurde in der Statistik der ehemaligen DDR 1978 eine neue Systematik eingeführt, in der einige Fahrzeugtypen den jeweiligen Obergruppen neu zugeordnet wurden. Das hat in den beiden Fahrzeug-Gruppen zu einer starken Erhöhung der Fahrzeug-Anzahl geführt. Es muß dennoch festgehalten werden, dass der Anstieg der Fahrzeuge um 28000 bzw. 30000 Fahrzeuge von einem Jahr auf das andere sich nicht aus den Veränderungen der Fahrzeugbestände der anderen Fahrzeugtypen erklären lässt, so dass der Hinweis auf eine veränderte Systematik sich nicht in den Zahlen der Datenreihen wiederspiegelt.


04: Straßenverkehrsunfälle (1906-2010)
Insbesondere das Automobil hat den einzelnen Bürgern in der Gesellschaft in jüngster Zeit einen enormen Mobilitätszuwachs beschert. Im Laufe der Zeit konnten immer größere Teile der Bevölkerung am Individualverkehr partizipieren. Die Kehrseite der Mobilität einer ganzen Gesellschaft sind die Unfälle mit den Verletzten und Getöteten. Durch die massenhafte Verbreitung motorisierter Fahrzeuge, die sich im selben Verkehrsraum wie Pferde und Fuhrwerke, Fußgänger oder Radfahrer bewegen, steigt die Unfallwahrscheinlichkeit stark an. Auch die Geschwindigkeit der motorisierten Verkehrsmittel erhöht die Unfallwahrscheinlichkeit und die Schwere der Unfälle, den Personen- und Sachschaden enorm. Darüber hinaus hat die Strassenverkehrssicherheit und damit die Zuverlässigkeit, mit der Güter schnell und sicher transportiert werden können und unbeschadet am Zielort ankommen, einen empfindlichen Einfluß auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. Denn der Transport übernimmt eine bedeutende Funktion als Wachstumsmotor durch die Erweiterung der Märkte. Eine besondere Zusammenstellung von langen Zeitreihen zur Entwicklung der Strassenverkehrsunfälle erscheint daher sinnvoll. Das Statistische Bundesamt definiert Straßenverkehrsunfälle wie folgt:
"Straßenverkehrsunfälle sind Unfälle, bei denen infolge des Fahrverkehrs auf öffentlichen Wegen und Plätzen Personen getötet oder verletzt wurden oder Sachschaden entstanden ist. Auskunftspflichtig für die Statistik der Straßenverkehrsunfälle ist die Polizei. Demzufolge sind Unfälle, zu denen die Polizei nicht gerufen wurde, in der Statistik nicht enthalten. ( In der Unfallstatistik ) … werden Angaben zu Unfällen, Beteiligten, Fahrzeugen, Verunglückten und Unfallursachen erfasst." Statistisches Bundesamt
Es wird regelmäßig vom Statistischen Bundesamt ein Heft der Fachserie 8, Reihe 7 mit langen Reihen zu Verkehrsunfällen herausgegeben. Auf der Basis dieser Publikation wurden die Reihen zu der Anzahl der Unfälle, der bei Unfällen Getöteten und der Verletzten zusammengestellt.


Die Schifffahrt

Eine der ersten Verkehrsmittel war die Fortbewegung mit Flößen, später mit Schiffen, zunächst in Ufernähe und auf Flüssen, später auf hoher See. Schon sehr früh wurde der Radius der Fortbewegung erheblich erweitert. Noch bevor die Staaten Europas die Blüte der Hochseeschifffahrt erreichten, haben sie schon die Flüsse als Transportwege für den Handel benutzt. Große Handelsstädte entstanden entlang der großen Flüsse Rhein, Main, Mosel, Donau, Oder, usw. Die Schifffahrt ermöglichte so schon früh den Austausch von Gütern und Ideen, brachte aber auch Auseinandersetzungen über territoriale, wirtschaftliche und militärische Interessen mit sich. Im Laufe der Zeit spezialisierte sich die Schifffahrt in zivile und militärische Bereiche, in Handel und Fischerei. Die Schifffahrt wird im folgenden unterteilt in Binnenschifffahrt und Seeschifffahrt.


05: Bestand an Binnenschiffen (1871-2010)
Die Binnenschifffahrt umfasst die Binnen-see-schifffahrt, Flussschifffahrt und Kanalschifffahrt, wobei im Rahmen der vorliegenden Studie auf die Fluss- und Kanalschifffahrt der Schwerpunkt gelegt wird. Binnenfischerei mit Fischerbooten und Transport mit Frachtschiffen auf Binnengewässern machten den Hauptanteil der Binnenschifffahrt aus. Im 17. Jh. wurden noch auf Flößen große Mengen Holz auf den Flüssen nach Holland transportiert. Ende des 18. Jahrhunderts kamen die Treidelschiffe zum Einsatz (Boote und Kähne durch Segel, Ruder, Staken oder Treidel fortbewegt). Mit Erfindung der Dampfmaschine setzten sich Schiffe mit eigener Triebkraft immer stärker in der Binnenschifffahrt durch. Sämtliche Massengüter wurden auf den Binnengewässern transportiert (z.B. Kohle, Erze und Erdölprodukte). Mit dem Ausbau von Binnenwasserstraßen und Schleusen, durch die eine Regulierung des Wasserstandes ermöglicht wurde, kann der Transport über die Binnenwasserstraßen beschleunigt werden. Heute übernimmt die Binnenschifffahrt Massentransporte in vielen Bereichen (Containertransport, Autotransport, etc.). Laut des Bundesverbandes für Deutsche Binnenschifffahrt dominieren Schütt- und greiferfähige Massengüter, wie etwa Baustoffe, Erze, Kohle und Stahl, mit einem Anteil von rund 70 % an der Gesamtmenge das Geschäft der Binnenschifffahrt (http://www.binnenschiff.de/). Für die Hütten- und Stahlindustrie ist die Binnenschifffahrt unentbehrlich. Auch in deutschen und europäischen Logistikketten stellt die Binnenschifffahrt ein unverzichtbares Glied dar.
Im Rahmen dieser Studie kann der Bestand der in der Binnenschifffahrt zum Einsatz gekommenen Schiffe nach Schiffstyp nicht wiedergegeben werden, da dies den Rahmen sprengen würde. Einer der einschneidendsten Veränderungen war die Dampfmaschine und damit die Möglichkeit, Schiffe mit eigener Triebkraft zu bauen. Daher wird hinsichtlich des Bestandes der Binnenschiffe zwischen Güterschiffen mit eigener Triebkraft und Güterschiffen ohne eigene Triebkraft unterschieden. Der Bestand der Schiffe wird dargestellt zum einen anhand der Anzahl der Schiffe, zum anderen aber mittels der Tragfähigkeit des Binnenschiffsbestandes in 1000 t.
Für das Deutsche Reich und für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland dient als Datenquelle die Studie von Kunz, Andreas (Hrsg.), 1999: Statistik der Binnenschiffahrt in Deutschland 1835-1989. St. Katharinen: Scripta Mercaturae Verlag.; GESIS Köln, Deutschland ZA8157 Datenfile Version 1.0.0; Datentabelle: Bestand an Binnenschiffen.
Die Angaben zu den Beständen beziehen sich für die Periode von 1845-1956 auf den 1.1. und ab 1957 auf den 31.12. des jeweiligen Jahres. Zum Teil wurden die Angaben vom Primärforscher geschätzt.
Für den Bestand an Binnenschiffen der ehemaligen DDR dient das Statistische Jahrbuch für die DDR, Jg. 1990, S. 260, Tab. ´Registrierter Bestand an Binnenschiffen´ als Datenquelle. Hier werden nur Schiffe mit eigener Triebkraft aufgeführt und es wird der Jahresdurchschnitt berichtet. Aussagen zu Schiffen ohne eigene Triebkraft können nicht gemacht werden.
Für Deutschland in den Grenzen von Oktober 1990 wurde das Statistische Jahrbuch für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland als Datenquelle herangezogen. Die Werte beziehen sich immer auf den Stand zum 31.12. des jeweiligen Jahres. Es wurde die Summe aus Gütermotorschiffen und Tankmotorschiffen für Reihe der Schiffe mit eigener Triebkraft gebildet. Schlepper und Schubboote wurden nicht mit einbezogen. Fahrgastschiffe wurden ebenfalls nicht mit einbezogen. Güterschleppkähne und Tankschleppkähne wurden dagegen in die Reihe der Binnenschiffe ohne eigene Triebkraft aufgenommen.


06 Güterverkehr auf den Binnenwasserstraßen (1909-2010)
Der Transport von Gütern auf den Binnenwasserstrassen ist ein Indikator für die Leistungs- und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Binnenschifffahrt. Bedeutende Einflussfaktoren sind die verfügbaren Höhen der Wasserspiegel der Flüsse und später der Binnenkanäle. Der Bau von Schleusen hat den Transport auf Binnenwasserstraßen entscheidend beschleunigt. Kleinere Flüsse, wie z.B. der Neckar, der Main oder die Mosel wurden durch die Kanalisierung und den Bau von Schleusen erst schiffbar gemacht. Der Bau von Binnenlandkanälen ergänzt die Flüsse, indem zwei Flüsse miteinander verbunden werden (z.B. der Mittellandkanal). Insgesamt wurde durch solche Baumaßnahmen der Umfang der schiffbaren Wasserstraßen entscheidend erhöht. Bei der Erfassung der Transportleistung deutscher Binnenwasserstraßen ist auch der Gütertransport nicht-deutscher Fahrzeuge beteiligt.
Für das Deutsche Reich in den Grenzen vom 31.12.1937 wurde für den Zeitraum von 1909-1914 und 1932-1938 die Publikation vom Statistischen Bundesamt: Bevölkerung und Wirtschaft 1872-1972, S. 207 als Quelle herangezogen. Für 1919-1931sind die erhobenen Zeitreihen von Andreas Kunz: Statistik der Binnenschifffahrt in Deutschland 1835-1989; GESIS Köln, Deutschland ZA8157 Datenfile Version 1.0.0., Datentabelle: Verkehrsleistungen auf Binnenwasserstraßen verwendet worden.
Auch für die frühere Bundesrepublik Deutschland in den Grenzen von 1949, also die sogenannten Alten Länder, wurde für die Jahre 1936, 1938, 1947 u. 1948 auf die Publikation des Statistisches Bundesamtes: Bevölkerung und Wirtschaft, S. 207 zurückgegriffen. Für 1949-1989 stammen die Werte aus der Studie von A. Kunz (ZA8157 Datenfile Version 1.0.0.). Einbezogen wurden für das Bundesgebiet die Wasserstaßen des Elbegebietes, des Wesergebietes, des Mittellandkanalgebietes, das Westdeutsche Kanalgebiet, das Rheingebiet, das Donaugebiet, sowie Berlin (West). Auch der Durchgangsverkehr auf den deutschen Wasserstrassen wurde mit erfasst. Für den Bereich der ehemaligen DDR bzw. der Neuen Länder wurde auf das Statistische Jahrbuch für die DDR zurückgegriffen. In dieser Reihe werden die Transportwerte inklusive der von der Binnenreederei der DDR beladenen Schiffe anderer Länder berichtet. Ausnahmen bilden die Jahre 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980 und 1985 bis 1989. Hier werden nur für die deutschen Binnenschiffe die Werte angegeben.
Für das wiedervereinte Deutschland stehen die Transportwerte seit 1991 zur Verfügung. Die Werte wurden mittels einer Abfrage vom 15. Februar 2012 von der GENESIS-Online Datenbank ermittelt. (vergleiche: (www-genesis.destatis.de; Abfrage: ´Beförderte Güter (Binnenschifffahrt): Deutschland, Jahre, Hauptverkehrsbeziehungen, Flagge des Schiffes, Güterverzeichnis (Abteilungen)´)


07 Handelsschiffstonnage (1871-2010)
Eine leistungsfähige Seeschifffahrt hat schon früh zur Erweiterung der regionalen Märkte beigetragen. Ein Beispiel für die frühe Globalisierung stellt die Hanse dar, die ohne die Seeschifffahrt nicht möglich gewesen wäre.
Die zwischen Mitte des 12. Jahrhunderts und Mitte des 17. Jahrhunderts bestehenden Vereinigungen niederdeutscher Kaufleute hatte sich zum Ziel gesetzt, die Sicherheit der Überfahrt zu verbessern und die Vertretung gemeinsamer wirtschaftlicher Interessen besonders im Ausland wahrzunehmen. In den Zeiten ihrer größten Ausdehnung waren beinahe 300 See- und Binnenstädte des nördlichen Europas in der Städtehanse zusammengeschlossen. Eine wichtige Grundlage dieser Verbindungen war die Entwicklung des Transportwesens, insbesondere zur See. Die Kogge, ein bauchiges Handelsschiff, stellte den bedeutendsten größeren Schiffstyp der Hanse dar. Im ausgehenden 14. Jahrhundert wurden die Koggen mehr und mehr von anderen Schiffstypen abgelöst. Im 15. Jahrhundert setzte der Machtverlust der Hanse ein, der unter anderem auch durch die Entdeckung Amerikas ausgelöst wurde. Der bisher dominierende Ostsee-Westsee-Handel (heute Nordsee-Handel) wurde nun in überseeische Gebiete ausgedehnt. Dabei ging nicht etwa das Handelsvolumen der Hanse im eigentlichen Sinne zurück, es entstanden jedoch mächtige Konkurrenten, die die Bedeutung der Hanse für die einzelnen Städte und Kaufleute schwächten (siehe hierzu: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanse und Rolf Hammel-Kiesow (2008): Die Hanse, München 4. aktualisierte Auflage).
Auch heute ist eine leistungsfähige Seeschifffahrt Voraussetzung für die Globalisierung. Arbeitsteilige Volkswirtschaften sind in starkem Maße vom überseeischen Handel abhängig. Die Handelsschiffstonnage gibt die Transportkapazität in Tonnen einer Handelsflotte an. Bei fortschreitender Technik im Schiffsbau steigt auch die Transportkapazität einzelner Schiffe, was die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit positiv beeinflusst. Die Entwicklung der Handelsschiffstonnage ist somit ein Indikator neben anderen, der die Stellung und Leistungsfähigkeit der nationalen Handelsflotte auf dem Weltmarkt angibt. Die Zusammenstellung der deutschen Handelsschiffstonnage gibt die Tonnage einmal in Bruttoregistertonnen und zum anderen, soweit die entsprechenden Werte aus den Quellen erhoben werden konnten, als Anteil an der Welthandelstonnage wieder. Auch die Anzahl der Handelsschiffe wird angeführt. Das Raummaß Bruttoregistertonne (abgekürzt = BRT) ist die Maßeinheit für die Tragfähigkeit der Seeschiffe. Es wird der gesamte umbaute Schiffsraum vermessen (Bruttoraumgehalt bzw. Bruttotonnage). Seit dem 1. Juli 1994 wird der Raumgehalt eines Schiffes in Bruttoraumzahl (BRZ) und Nettoraumzahl (NRZ) berechnet. Die Angaben für das Deutsche Reich beziehen sich auf das Reich in seinen jeweiligen Grenzen. Als Quellen wurde das Statistische Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich sowie die Publikation "Bevölkerung und Wirtschaft" des Statistischen Bundesamtes herangezogen. Ab 1900 geben die Werte den Stand zum 1. Juli des jeweiligen Jahres an. Für die Alten Länder bzw. das Gebiet der ehemaligen Bundesrepublik Deutschland wurden die Werte aus der Publikation "Verkehr in Zahlen" des Bundesministeriums für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung, Tabelle: ´Seeschifffahrt - Handelsflotte der BRD´ bezogen. Hier beziehen sich die Werte jeweils auf den 31 Dezember des jeweiligen Jahres. In dieser Quelle wurden Schiffe mit mechanischem Antrieb und einem Raumgehalt von mindestens 100 BRT und mehr berücksichtigt. Außerdem sind für den Zeitraum von 1975 – 1990 Schiffe unter der Flagge der Bundesrepublik einschl. ausländischer Schiffe mit Flaggenschein aufgenommen worden. Schiffe der BRD, die unter fremder Flagge fuhren, werden nicht berücksichtigt, da sie nicht für den deutschen Handel und Transport verwendet werden. Leider kann nach 1971 keine Angabe zum Anteil der deutschen Handelsschiffstonnage an der Welthandelstonnage gemacht werden. Für das Gebiet der ehemaligen DDR wurde das Statistische Jahrbuch für die DDR, Jahrgang 1990, als Quelle herangezogen. Hier ist der Stichtag der Bestandsangaben, wie im Falle des Deutschen Reiches, der 1.7. des jeweiligen Jahres. Für das wiedervereinte Deutschland in den Grenzen des 3. Oktobers 1990 beziehen sich die Angaben – wie für die ehemalige Bundesrepublik – auf den Stand zum 31.12. des jeweiligen Jahres. Als Quelle wurde die Publikation "Verkehr in Zahlen" des Bundesministeriums für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung herangezogen.


08 Güterumschlag in bedeutenden Seehäfen - Hamburg, Bremische Häfen, Emden sowie Rostock, Wismar und Stralsund (1925-2010)
Der Güterumschlag eines Hafens ist ein Indikator für seine wirtschaftliche Bedeutung und der Einbettung des Hafens in der Logistikkette. Bei guter Anbindung an Bahn und Autobahn und kurzen, zügigen Be- und Entladungsphasen von Schiffen sowie LKWs und Bahn-Waggongs wird sich ein Hafen als Güterumschlagszentrum etablieren. Die Datentabelle K15.08 enthält für die wichtigsten Häfen Deutschlands die Entwicklung des Güterumschlags vom Deutschen Reich bis zum Jahr 2010 im wiedervereinten Deutschland in den Grenzen vom 3. Oktober 1990. Vor dem Hintergrund der Teilung Deutschlands nach dem 2. WK in zwei Staaten und der Auswahl der wichtigsten Häfen für die ehemalige DDR, wie sie in dem Statistischen Jahrbuch für die ehemalige DDR getroffen wurde, sind folgende Häfen in der Datentabelle aufgenommen worden: Hamburg, Bremische Häfen, Emden, Rostock, Wismar und Stralsund. Als Quelle dienen die Statistischen Jahrbücher für das Deutsche Reich, für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland und für die DDR. Für die neuen Länder wurde darüber hinaus noch die Publikation des Bundesministeriums für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung, Verkehr in Zahlen, Jg. 1990, S. 282, Tabelle: 'DDR Kennziffern - Seehäfen und Binnenhäfen' herangezogen.


Die Luftfahrt

Mit der Erfindung des Flugzeuges tritt eine vollkommen neue Form der Fortbewegung auf den Markt. Die ersten Flugzeuge wurden zunächst nur für militärische Zwecke genutzt; 1919 setzte mit Gründung der Deutschen Luft-Reederei (DLR) in Deutschland eine Entwicklung hin zum zivilen Luftverkehr ein. Die Deutsche Luft-Reederei (DLR) wurde vom Reichsluftamt in Berlin als weltweit erste Fluggesellschaft für den zivilen Luftverkehr zugelassen. Zwischen Berlin und Weimar begann der regelmäßige Post- und Passagierverkehr. Die Luftpost mit Flugzeugen, die schon während des Ersten Weltkriegs entstand, wurde wesentlich ausgebaut. In den darauf folgenden Jahren entstanden viele kleine Fluggesellschaften, die häufig nur eine Strecke bedienten. Der technische Fortschritt ermöglichte schließlich die Entwicklung eines Verkehrsflugzeuges mit beheizbarer Kabine und gepolsterten Sitzen. 1926 wurde die "Deutsche Lufthansa AG" unter Beteiligung des Reiches, der Länder und Städte gegründet. Bis 1945 war sie Einheitsgesellschaft für den zivilen Luftverkehr mit weit verzweigtem europäischem Streckennetz. Mit der Kapitulation Deutschlands nach dem 2. Weltkrieg im Mai 1945 wurde die deutsche Luftfahrt zunächst unterbrochen. Nach der Gründung der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und der Einrichtung des Verkehrsministeriums konnte der zivile Luftverkehr wieder 1955 aufgenommen werden.
Der Luftverkehr hat gerade für eine international ausgerichtete Volkswirtschaft wie Deutschland eine enorme Bedeutung durch die hohen Mobilitätszuwächse in wirtschaftlichen Bereichen und im Bereich des Personenverkehrs. Mit Einsetzen des Luftverkehrs als Transportmittel ist eine Verringerung der Transportkosten und Transportzeiten zwischen weit entfernten Orten erreicht worden. Eisenbahn- und Schiffsverkehr stellen für den Flugverkehr aufgrund der größeren Gütermengen, die sie transportieren können, sowie der günstigeren Kosten pro transportierter Gewichtseinheit, weiterhin wichtige Mitbewerber im Bereich des Gütertransportes dar. Wesentliche Akteure des Luftverkehrs sind neben der Flugsicherung die Flughäfen und die Fluggesellschaften. In der Zeit von 1919 bis 1949 entwickelte sich der Luftverkehr bis in die 1970er Jahre hinein als ein stark staatlich regulierter Sektor. Die Luftverkehrsgesellschaften wie z.B. die Deutsche Lufthansa sowie die Flughäfen befanden sich oft im Besitzt des jeweiligen Heimatlandes. Ende der 70er Jahre setzte in den USA ein Deregulierungsprozess des Luftverkehrssektors ein, der schließlich auch in den 80er Jahren die Länder der Europäischen Union erfasste. Die Europäische Gemeinschaft verwirklichte in drei großen Liberalisierungsschritten in den Jahren 1987, 1990 und 1993 eine weitgehend vollständige Dienstleistungsfreiheit für den innereuropäischen Luftverkehr. (vergl.: St. Kraft: Geschäftsmodelle strategischer Luftverkehrsallianzen. Universität Gießen. WEB: http://www.org-portal.org/fileadmin/media/legacy/Gesch_ftsmodelle_strategischer_ Luftverkehrsallianzen.pdf)


09 Gewerblicher Luftverkehr der deutschen Fluggesellschaft und aller Fluggesellschaften auf deutschen Flugplätzen (1919-2010)

Solange der Luftverkehr noch nicht liberalisiert war, diente der größte nationale Flughafen der nationalen Fluggesellschaft als Hauptstützpunkt. Aufgrund der strikten Reglementierung des europäischen Luftverkehrs durch bilaterale Abkommen wurde den Fluggesellschaften die Streckenführung und Passagierbeförderung größtenteils vorgegeben. Nur, wenn es um Zubringerdienste (die sog. spokes) innerhalb des eigenen Landes ging, konnten die Passagierströme für Langstreckenflüge auf einen bestimmen Flughafen als sogenannten Hub (=gewählter Umsteigeflughafen einer Fluggesellschaft) konzentriert werden. Nach der Liberalisierung innerhalb der EU treten Flughäfen und Fluggesellschaften nun als selbständige Akteure auf, die Entscheidungen nach Effizienzgesichtspunkten fällen können. Die Flughäfen treten untereinander in den Wettbewerb ein. Mit dem Ausbau ihrer Kapazitäten und Dienstleistungen am Boden versuchen sie, für Fluggesellschaften als Hauptstützpunkt (das sog. Hub-and-Spokes-System ) attraktiv zu sein. Unternehmen des Güterverkehrs sowie die Teilnehmer des Personenverkehrs sollen aufgrund guter Serviceleistungen angesprochen werden. Die Fluggesellschaften wiederum konkurrieren über angebotene Flugrouten und Preise. (vgl. Gordon Paul Schenk, 2003: Auf dem Weg zu einem gemeinsamen Markt im Luftverkehr. Dissertation, Hamburg, S. 123 f.) Von daher erscheint es sinnvoll, die erbrachten Transportleistungen im Luftverkehr sowohl nach den Fluggesellschaften als auch nach den Flughäfen getrennt darzustellen. Es wurde versucht, möglichst lange kontinuierliche Datenreihen für Deutschland zur Zeit des Deutschen Reiches bis 1938/1940, jeweils für die frühere Bundesrepublik (Alte Länder) und die ehemalige DDR (Neue Länder) von 1950 bis 1990 sowie für das wiedervereinte Deutschland in den Grenzen vom 3. Oktober 1990 für die Zeit von 1990 bis 2010 zusammenzustellen. Für die Flughäfen wurden die Leistungen sämtlicher deutscher und ausländischer Fluggesellschaften aufgenommen. Zur Zeit des Deutschen Reiches ist auch der Luftschiffverkehr in den Zahlen mit enthalten. Für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland und das wiedervereinte Deutschland wurde der Gesamtverkehr einschließlich des Durchgangsverkehrs erfasst. Für die alten Länder (ehemalige Bundesrepublik) wurden die Werte folgender Flughäfen erfasst: Berlin-West, Bremen, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hannover, Köln, München, Nürnberg, Stuttgart, ab 1977 Saarbrücken. Die Datenreihen für die Neuen Länder beziehen sich auf die Flughäfen Berlin- Schönefeld, Dresden, Leipzig/Halle, ab 1998 Erfurt.
Für die Fluggesellschaften werden jeweils neben den Beförderungsleistungen in absoluten Zahlen auch die Kennwerte der Transportleistungen, Personenkilometer und Tonnenkilometer angegeben. Für die ehemalige DDR wird in dem Statistischen Jahrbuch für die DDR nur für die Fluggesellschaft der ehemaligen DDR, die Interflug bzw. Deutsche Lufthansa der DDR berichtet, so dass für die Zeit von 1945 bis 1990 keine Angaben zu den Flughäfen gemacht werden können.
Folgende Zeitreihen sind in dieser Datentabelle aufgenommen worden:
Für die deutschen Flughäfen:
- Beförderte Personen in 1000;
- Beförderte Luftfracht in 1000 t.;
- Beförderte Luftpost in 1000 t.
Für die deutschen Fluggesellschaften:
- Beförderte Personen in 1000;
- Beförderte Personen in Personenkilometer;
- Beförderte Luftfracht in 1000 t.;
- Beförderte Luftfracht in 1000 Tonnenkilometer;
- Beförderte Luftpost in 1000 t.
- Beförderte Luftpost in 1000 Tonnenkilometer.


Die Nachrichtenübermittlung durch Post und Telekommunikation

Die Beförderung von Nachrichten, Kleingütern und zum Teil auch Personen ist ein wesentlicher Bestandteil eines funktionsfähigen Gemeinwesens. Bis zum späten Mittelalter gab es in dem damaligen Heiligen Römischen Reich deutscher Nationen kein etabliertes System der allgemeinen Nachrichtenübermittlung, sondern Kaiser, Klerus und Fürsten sendeten per Boten ihre Nachricht direkt zum Zielort. Der Habsburger Maximilian I. benötigte für die effektive Verwaltung seines Reichs eine zuverlässige und sichere Nachrichtenübermittlung. 1490 beauftragte er die Familie Torre e Tassis (später Thurn und Taxis) mit der Einrichtung einer systematisch organisierten Nachrichtenübermittlung. Durch die Einrichtung von Poststationen war die Übermittlung von Nachrichten nicht mehr an eine Person, den Boten, gebunden, sondern wurde – vergleichbar einem Staffelrennen – an der Station einem anderen Reiter übergeben. Der Nachrichtenbeförderung wurde bei Tag und bei Nacht durchgeführt. Dieses Poststationen-System wurde ständig erweitert, Briefe konnten so über große Distanzen innerhalb von 5 bis 6 Tagen transportiert werden. Die Nachrichtenübermittlung wurde extrem beschleunigt. Raum und Zeit waren plötzlich keine unüberwindbaren Hindernisse. War dieses Übermittlungssystem zunächst ausschließlich für kaiserliche Nachrichten eingerichtet, wurde schon 1530 die Post der Allgemeinheit zugänglich gemacht. In der darauffolgenden Zeit wurden von Landesfürsten, Herzogtümern und Städten konkurrierende Postrouten eingerichtet. Zwar wurde durch Kaiser Rudolf II. die Reichspost 1597 zum kaiserlichen Hoheitsrecht erklärt. Dieses Monopol, welches das Haus Thurn und Taxis als kaiserliches Lehen erhielt, wurde jedoch nicht von allen Landesfürsten anerkannt, was zu einer Vielzahl ausgehandelter bilateraler Verträge zwischen der Reichspost und den jeweiligen konkurrierenden lokalen Postunternehmen zwang. 1850 wurde schließlich der Deutsch-Österreichische Postverein als Zusammenschluß kleinstaatlicher Posten mit dem Ziel eines einheitlichen Tarifsystems gegründet, dem in der Folgezeit immer mehr deutsche Staaten beigetreten sind. Durch die politischen Ereignisse 1866/67 (Deutsch-Preußischer Krieg) wurde der Deutsche Postverein aufgelöst. Schon in dieser Zeit hat der technische Fortschritt zu großen Umwälzungen und neuen Perspektiven geführt. Als technische Erneuerung sind in diese Zeit gefallen: die Telegrafie, die Bahn, die als Transportmittel für die Post entdeckt wurde, und die Rohrpost. Die Preußen führten die Telegrafie 1832 offiziell ein (Telegrafenlinie von Berlin nach Koblenz). 1850 wurde der Deutsch-Österreichische Telegrafenverein gegründet, der den Anschluss an das belgische, französische und das englische Telegrafennetz ermöglichte. "Erst mit der Gründung des Deutschen Reichs 1871 unter Bismarck wurde auch das deutsche Postwesen endgültig unter einem Dach zusammengefasst und über 100 Jahre lang verstaatlicht." (Gregor Delvaux de Fenffe, www.planet-wissen.de/kultur_medien/ kommunikation/post/index.jsp ) Gebühren der Postbeförderung wurden vereinheitlicht, der Einsatz moderner Technologien forciert. Schließlich wurden mittels bilateraler Verträge die Beförderungshemmnisse über die Grenzen des Deutschen Reiches abgebaut.
Führte in der Entstehungszeit des Postwesens die Vielfalt eigenständiger, regionaler Postvereine aufgrund vieler Grenzen und unterschiedlicher Regeln zu einem unübersichtlichen und starrem System, so brachte die Liberalisierung des Post- und Telekommunikationswesens in Deutschland in den 1990er Jahren einen Anstieg der Auswahl für die Verbraucher, stark fallende Preise, neue innovative Dienste und damit mehr Flexibilität. Auslöser der Liberalisierungsprozesse nicht nur für Post und Telekommunikation, sondern für den gesamten Verkehrssektor, war das Binnenmarktprogamm der Europäischen Union, das europäische Wettbewerbsrecht und die Europäische Kommission als Akteur. Ziel der Liberalisierung ist es, wettbewerbsverzerrende staatliche Eingriffe und damit nationalstaatliche Gestaltungsspielräume einzuschränken. Nationalstaatliche Monopole sind wegen bestehender europarechtlicher Verpflichtungen nicht mehr zu halten. (vergl.: Susanne K. Schmidt: Liberalisierung in Europa. Campus, 1998; Justus Haucap / Coenen, Michael (2010): Ordnungspolitische Perspektiven Nr.01. Regulierung und Deregulierung in Telekommunikationsmärkten: Theorie und Praxis. Düsseldorf, Düsseldorfer Institut für Wettbewerbsökonomie DICE) Flankiert wird diese Entwicklung durch eine Vielzahl neuer Technologien der Kommunikation, wie das Internet mit seinen vielfältigen Möglichkeiten (Social Media, das Semantische Web, die Internet-Telefonie, der E-Mail-Verkehr), der Mobilfunk oder die Möglichkeit, SMS zu versenden.


10 Deutsche Reichs- und Bundespost (1871-2010)

Die quantitative Entwicklung der Dienstleistungen des Post- und Telekommunikationswesen von der Zeit des Deutschen Reichs bis zur Gegenwart soll mit folgenden Zeitreihen festgehalten werden:
- Beförderte Briefsendungen,
- Beförderte Paket- und Wertsendungen,
- Übermittelte Telegramme,
- Sprechstellen (Telefonanschlüsse),
- Ortsgespräche,
- Ferngespräche,
- Ton-Rundfunkgenehmigungen
- Fernseh-Rundfunkgenehmigungen

Durch die rasante technische Entwicklung können viele Reihen insbesondere ab den 1990er Jahren in dieser Form nicht mehr fortgeführt werden bzw. müssen durch weitere Reihen ergänzt werden, und zwar:
- Bezüglich der Telefone muss zwischen Telefon-Anschlüssen und Telefon-Kanälen unterschieden werden. Der klassische Analoganschluss ermöglicht durch das ISDN die Bereitstellung von mehreren Kanälen auf einen ISDN-Anschluss. Darüber hinaus stellt der Mobilfunk ein neues Medium dar, das neben dem Festnetzanschluss erfasst werden muß.
- Aufgrund der Monopolstellung, welche die Post für ca. 120 Jahre innehatte, ist sie die Eigentümerin wertvoller Infrastruktur. Im Falle des Telefons ist sie, bzw. die aus ihr hervorgegangene Deutsche Telekom AG Eigentümerin der Telefonanschlussleitungen. Das Telefonnetz kann als einziger Teil nicht oder nur schwer von alternativen Anbietern ersetzt werden und es wird für gewöhnlich von einem örtlichen Zugangsnetz-Monopolisten (die Deutsche Telekom) kontrolliert. Damit die Wettbewerber den Zugang zum Anschluss des Kunden auf wirtschaftliche Weise realisieren können, sorgt die Regulierungsbehörde für eine angemessene Tarifierung der Vorleistungen des etablierten Betreibers. Daher ist die Entwicklung der TAL-Anmietungen durch Wettbewerber ein wichtiger Indikator für den Prozess der Liberalisierung.
- Viele technische Neuerungen, die in letzter Zeit an Bedeutung gewonnen haben, sind im Rahmen dieser Tabelle nicht berücksichtigt worden, so. z.B. die Verbreitung der Internet-Anschlüsse in den Haushalten oder die Internet-Telefonie. Der Grund liegt darin, dass die Reihen oft erst mit Ende der 1990er Jahre oder später beginnen, wie man dies auch am Beispiel der TAL-Anmietungen sehen kann, für die erst mit dem Jahr 1998 der erste Wert erhoben wurde. Zum andern wurde versucht, soweit wie möglich, eine gewisse Vergleichbarkeit zu den Jahren vor 1990 beizubehalten. Für die Telefonanschlüsse bedeutet dies, dass für Deutschland ab 1990 die Sprechstellen, gezählt als Anzahl der Kanäle für alle Anbieter und für die Telekom AG im besonderen ausgewiesen werden. Nach 2007 ergibt sich ein Bruch in diesen Reihen, da ab 2008 nur noch die Sprechstellen, gezählt als Anschlüsse, ausgewiesen werden, womit sich die ausgewiesenen Zahlen verringern (ein Anschluss kann mehrere Kanäle bereitstellen).
- Für die 'Übermittelten Telegramme' sind aus den uns vorliegenden Quellen keine Werte zu entnehmen.

President Volodymyr Zelensky and the current Ukrainian parliament are approaching the hour when their formal legitimacy, their mandate, comes to an end. Under normal conditions, elections to the Verkhovna Rada would have been held last October, while candidates for the presidency would have started preparing for elections scheduled for the last Sunday in March of 2024. But the country is consumed by war, and elections are probably not an option. Or are they? President Zelensky is considering the answer to this question. [1]I should state at the outset that I find the idea of organizing elections, whether presidential only or both presidential and parliamentary, during wartime is a very bad idea. At the same time, I also disagree with those who think the matter of postponing elections can be settled purely by having recourse to existing laws.In this brief I show that the ruling group could, if it chose, adopt some legal maneuvering that would formally respect the constitution and the nation's laws (though violating their spirit), and that these maneuvers have been tested several times in Ukraine since 2014. But such formally legal if doubtfully legitimate elections could also pose unjustifiably high sociopolitical risks for a state at war, and this creates a dilemma for the nation.Defining the Wartime Electoral DilemmaCurrently, the Zelensky administration is under pressure to organize parliamentary and presidential elections soon. The first source of the pressure is the West.[2] Behind the scenes, Ukraine's allies are allegedly demanding that Kyiv renew its government's legitimacy, despite the ongoing war and the mass dislocation of citizens. Ukraine's allies know well the constitutional limitations on wartime elections in Ukraine. They also know that the current legal regime is "flexible" enough to find legal ways of organizing elections. After all, they point out, the war started in 2014, and thereafter two presidents and two parliaments were elected. Also, some opposition-minded groups in the United States and Europe are casting doubt on the democratic nature of Ukraine's government as a reason to reduce the military and financial support being provided to Ukraine.[2] Elections would help the Western pro-Ukrainian governments overcome these objections at home in the upcoming budgetary debates.A second source of pressure to hold elections is the domestic political situation. After a very uneven, challenging, and tragic five-year governing effort that had to deal with the "Green Wave" of radical reforms, the COVID-19 pandemic, growing clashes with opposition groups, and Russia's full-fledged invasion, President Zelensky and his party need to renew their mandate. For the sake of political stability they must demonstrate their democratic legitimacy to the nation, the opposition, and, especially, the army. Whatever future awaits Ukraine, whether protracted war or peace negotiations, the government must be regarded as fully legitimate and must be trusted by its constituencies and the military to cope with upcoming challenges.Under such circumstances, Volodymyr Zelensky and his closest associates must resolve the dilemma: to hold elections or not to hold elections. Each choice has pros and cons.Reasons to defer elections. Russia's war of attrition goes on and demands all the government's attention and all the nation's resources. There are also many constitutional, legal, and political reasons for not holding elections.[4] To organize meaningful, free, and fair elections, Kyiv would need to lift the many political restrictions that were put in place to create national solidary and a singular national focus on achieving victory. This means that the government would need to revise electoral legislation, create new tools to enable the vast number of displaced citizens to vote, allow a more capacious writ and greater ideological diversity of the media, and restart political competition. Reasons not to defer elections. On the other hand, without the essential democratic legitimacy conferred by free and fair elections, it may soon be impossible to govern a nation embroiled in a war for freedom. Even more, if elections were organized, they would need to be conducted in a way that citizens—whether serving at the front or working in the rear or living in the occupied territories—fully recognized that the campaign and ballot count were honest. Ukrainians have a record of revolts provoked by a suspicious electoral process and results.[5] The wartime legal, administrative, socioeconomic, and demographic problems could influence any elections in a big way and so rattle the political order and divert the government's attention from the needs of the front. Legal-Political Flexibility as Ukraine's Answer to a Long WarDespite pressures for—and expert voices against—holding the elections in wartime, Zelensky's team is taking into account Ukraine's recent experience in living under conditions of war. The war in Ukraine started de facto with Russia's first acts of aggression, in 2014, and has now spread throughout the country with Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. However, de jure, the war between Russia and Ukraine has seen three different legal regimes during the past nine years. First, between April 15, 2014, and April 30, 2018, Ukraine existed in the regime of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO), which was a set of military and legal measures adopted by Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and aimed at countering Russian and pro-Russian armed groups in the war in eastern Ukraine. This regime limited some civil rights in some territories, but it was not martial law.[6] So both presidential and parliamentary elections could be conducted in 2014 in all regions not directly affected by war. Both presidential and parliamentary elections were internationally recognized as free and fair, despite military actions in some oblasts and the inability of voters to participate in elections in Crimea and some districts of the Donbas.[7] The legal regime flexibly mixed elements of martial law and peacetime politics.Second, between April 30, 2018, and February 24, 2022, the regime of the Joint Forces Operation was in effect which continued the logic of the ATO in slightly different military and administrative terms. Again, this flexible legal-political regime allowed free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in 2019, despite the ongoing war in the Donbas and the annexed Crimea.[8] Even though President Petro Poroshenko attempted to impose martial law and postpone the elections of 2019, the Verkhovna Rada resisted his efforts and saved the elections in a form characteristic of peacetime.[9]The same legal flexibility allowed Zelensky to use military elements of the legal regime and to start using the Security Council as a core instrument in his fight with the oligarchs in 2020–2021.[10]The third legal regime started with Russia's full-fledged invasion on February 24, 2022. It was thought that this time, Ukraine's legal-political flexibility would not be up to the task. But again, some legal-political flexibility remained: martial law (voiennyi stan) was imposed without declaration of a state of war (stan viiny) and war on Russia. Indeed, de jure, martial law was initiated by Volodymyr Zelensky and approved by the Rada on February 24, 2022.[11] Since then the process has been repeated regularly, with martial law being continued for several months ahead at each approval.[12] This time, the legal order of war was additionally defined by the Law on the Use of the Armed Forces and other military formations to defend the country.[13] Military-civil administrations started governing all regions of Ukraine, and civilian associations, mass media outlets, and political parties began functioning under wartime restrictions.[14]According to the laws on the legal regime of martial law and on defense, martial law was introduced to avert the threat to the nation and to repel armed aggression in all regions of Ukraine.[15] The laws on martial law and on defense provide state authorities, the military command, military administrations, and local self-government bodies with special powers necessary to fight the enemy. Also, as allowed by the constitution's Article 64, certain temporary restrictions on many civil rights and freedoms were imposed. Altogether, the various ramifications of the legal regime of martial law have directly affected domestic political processes.At the same time, the Ukrainian government did not announce a state of war and did not declare war on Russia. Volodymyr Zelensky submitted to parliament a draft law on the declaration of a state of war, but it was never considered by parliament (and only the web archive has actually preserved some traces of this step).[16] Even though a state of war regime is mentioned in the Ukrainian constitution, it has never been defined. Where does the concept of a "state of war" come from, particularly with reference to Ukraine and its political-legal flexibility? In a nutshell, the concept stems from international agreements such as the Third Hague Convention on the Opening of Hostilities (1907) or the UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 (1974), both of which introduce the concepts of war and aggression (Ukraine is a signatory to both). They define the norm according to which one state may not initiate military action against another state absent a declaration of war or an ultimatum. They also stipulate that the use of armed force by one state is sufficient evidence of an act of aggression against another state. By not announcing war on Russia and not introducing a state of war, the Ukrainian government has some flexibility, for example, in continuing to transit Russian gas to the EU.[17] So, even after announcing martial law, the government of Ukraine has preserved some element of legal-political flexibility by not declaring war on Russia.All three legal-political regimes have allowed and prepared Ukrainians to adapt their political and legal systems, as well as their communal life and economy, to the conditions of a temporally protracted and spatially enlarging war. This adaptability has immersed Ukrainian institutions in a state of legal, political, security, and even military affairs that has proved rather flexible in merging de jure and de facto situations. For example, it has allowed the nation to survive when some of its territory was occupied by Russia or Russia-backed separatists—yet there are front-line areas with vast Ukrainian military operations. There are also the rear regions where, prior to the current state of conflict, Ukrainians continued to live and work. And before 2022, but during wartime, they enjoyed competitive elections, the division of power, functional courts, and active participation in international relations. This flexibility, whose roots survived even after 2022, may be used by the ruling group to organize yet another wartime election. And Western allies know it well. Does the Current Legal Regime Allow Elections in Ukraine? Usually, elections are not conducted in countries at war. However, if the war is protracted, elections might be needed to reestablish the domestic and international legitimacy of the government. The Ukrainian constitution and its laws do not provide a clear answer to this question, and this ambiguity is one of the sources of wartime Ukraine's legal-political flexibility.Indeed, the constitution's Article 83 states that if the term of service of the Verkhovna Rada expires when the country is under martial law, its authority is extended until a new parliament is elected. This and other constitutional provisions cannot be changed while martial law is in effect (Article 157). However, the constitution does not prohibit either presidential or local elections from being held. The restrictions on presidential and local elections are provided for in the Law on Martial Law and the Electoral Code's Articles 20 and 280.[18] These stipulations, however, can be changed by parliament and approved by the president, if there is political will to do so. Thus, if the Ukrainian political class agrees, presidential elections can be conducted under martial law next year. Even more, if the president and the Rada agree, they could stop continuing the regime of martial law, despite ongoing military actions on the soil of Ukraine. That way even parliamentary elections could be legally held. However, in such a case the legality and the legitimacy of the decisions would openly contradict each other.In sum, the existing legal-political flexibility indeed provides an opportunity for elections. But it neither resolves the question of the essential democratic legitimacy of elections held during a de facto war nor decreases the risk of desolidarization of society during competitive elections. Security Risks around Wartime Elections Despite all the legal workarounds and some benefits that flexibility can bring, elections pose an existential risk for a nation at war. Ukraine has nonetheless held elections in the face of this risk after 2014, but with the current war of vastly greater scale than earlier stages of the conflict and having an incalculably greater influence on Ukrainian society, economy, and political institutions, the former success may not be repeatable. If elections are attempted in 2024, they may lead to disaster for Ukraine.Ukrainian experts who publicly oppose the decision to hold elections in 2024 typically adduce two arguments. The first is that the constitution and laws prohibit elections when the country is under martial law. This argument has its weak side: there are ways to get around such prohibitions, as discussed above. The second argument is stronger: the sociopolitical order will face overwhelming challenges to its stability if elections are conducted during wartime. The reasoning here usually refers to the unjustifiably high costs of elections and the fact that they would undermine national unity during war. Wartime elections would indeed drag a hugely sensitized society into debates that might still be constrained by the needs of war and into voting that might not be well attended by so many displaced citizens, reducing representation. Here is the major contradiction that makes wartime elections so potentially destructive. If the aim is to uphold and reinforce by democratic means the legitimacy of the government, elections must be free, honest, based on open debate and competition, and accessible to all voters. If some element on this list is missing, the aim of elections will not be achieved. Also, if some element on this list is missing, the sensitized Ukrainian society, which already trusts military institutions more than it trusts civilian, democratic ones, might protest en masse. The picture is even more contradictory: if resources are so scarce as to hamper the country's defense efforts, and if international support is slowing, then diverting resources away from defense and toward some other purpose is counterproductive. Indeed, allocating human, administrative, and financial resources to elections during a war of attrition is an unjustifiable luxury. Over 47 percent of the Ukrainian budget for 2024 is planned to come from external sources.[19] And these sources, as the current debates in the U.S. Congress demonstrate, may not be as generous as in 2022–2023. Every public and economic sector in Ukraine reports a growing deficit in human resources.[20] Well over six million Ukrainians have left the country, and many of them—over a million, at a minimum—live on the territory of the aggressor state.[21] Over three million Ukrainians are fighting to survive in internal displacement. Another four million Ukrainians live in Russia-occupied Ukrainian territory.[22] Under such conditions, it would be close to impossible to organize an inclusive and accessible voting apparatus. And that would put in doubt the legitimacy of any government elected under such conditions.The question of legitimacy gains another wrinkle when citizens' fading trust in the government and democratic institutions is considered. After almost two years of life under martial law, Ukrainian society shows signs of stable trust in security institutions and declining trust in public organizations. Even though polls conducted under conditions of war have, as expected, a large margin of error, the results still deserve attention for the social dynamics and the relative ratios they reveal. For example, according to a recent poll by the Razumkov Center, a nongovernmental think tank, the most trusted state bodies include military or war-related institutions and organizations: the armed forces (93 percent of respondents trust them), volunteer organizations (that support the army, 84 percent), the National Guard (81 percent), the State Border Service (76.5 percent), the president (who is commander in chief, 72 percent), the Ministry of Defense (71 percent), and the Security Service (66 percent).[23] But trust in democracy-related institutions is falling. The majority of respondents expressed distrust in political parties (74 percent), public officials (72 percent), the courts (70 percent), parliament (64 percent), the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (53 percent), and the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (52 percent). Despite being dissatisfied with the civil part of government, the population remaining within Ukraine's borders is opposed to the prospect of elections in 2024. According to the same Razumkov Center poll, only 15 percent of respondents support holding national elections before the end of the war, with almost two-thirds (64 percent) rejecting such a proposal and 21 percent of respondents undecided. Election supporters argue that elections are necessary to support democracy in the country (6 percent) and to show the world that Ukraine is a democratic state (5 percent); another 5 percent see the need to change the government or at least to renew President Zelensky's mandate (5 percent). Election opponents argue that elections are too expensive for the current state budget (36 percent), that the legislation does not allow them (32 percent), that voting would be insecure (31 percent), and that, under martial law, it is impossible to observe democratic standards (29 percent).These data are supported by many other polls (such as ones conducted by KIIS and the IRI/Rating Group).[24] Altogether they show that Ukraine's wartime society has greater trust in the army than in civil authorities and values elections only if they are conducted as a genuine democratic process. More generally, even if a political system were to develop some adaptive legal-political flexibility, war is not conducive to democracy-reinforcing elections.Let's Wait on Elections and Focus on Core IssuesI want to stress that the vox populi as represented, with all caveats, in the above polls and in experts' analysis is aligned, for one good reason: Under current military conditions in Ukraine, it would be hugely risky to conduct elections. All available resources must be poured into defense and achieving victory.Elections would most likely not respond to the legitimate expectations of citizens and would not comply with OSCE standards. Even if the wartime restrictions on the political rights and freedoms of citizens and on the operations of the mass media were canceled, it would arguably take another year to return to the pre-2022 mode of operations. Public debate has long been absent, and Ukrainian society is fragmented, with new cleavages. It will take time for political parties to address both issues and restart meaningful competition for the voters' sympathies in Ukraine. Without such careful preparation of society, elections would be a senseless formality that would only intensify the population's dissatisfaction with the government and negative reactions to those Western nations pushing for elections to be held. Even if some European politicians might not insist on the proper democratic quality to any election, the Ukrainian citizenry would be quite unlikely to tolerate electoral incongruencies.[25] And Zelensky needs real, essential democratic legitimacy in 2024. I believe that the Zelensky administration should resist all pressures and postpone elections. Instead, it should address legitimate dissatisfaction with the public administration and the lack of access to trusted mass media, and focus on the major security needs of Ukraine.[1] Sky News: "President Zelenskyy weighing up spring presidential elections," Sky News, November 3, 2023, https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-russian-man-arrested-for-passing-secrets-to-ukraine-moscow-ready-for-talks-on-post-conflict-settlement-12541713?postid=6708241#liveblog-body. [2] David L. Stern, Catherine Belton, John Hudson, "Western Officials Press Ukraine to Hold Elections," Washington Post, September 24, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/24/ukraine-elections-war-russia-west/.[3] "Zelensky showing 'authoritarian traits', says Swiss intelligence report," Swissinfo, July 9, 2023, https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/zelensky-showing--authoritarian-traits---says-swiss-intelligence-report/48652496. ; Harry Enten, "How Republicans Have Grown More Skeptical of Zelensky and Ukraine," CNN, September 21, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/21/politics/republicans-zelensky-ukraine-polls-skeptical/index.html[4] Olga Aivazovska, "Opinion: Elections and War Are Incompatible," The Kyiv Independent, November 1, 2023, https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-elections-and-war-are-incompatible/. [5] "Orange Revolution," Encyclopædia Britannica, accessed November 15, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/topic/Orange-Revolution. [6] "Про Тимчасові Заходи На Період Проведення Антитерористичної Операції," Офіційний вебпортал парламенту України, June 2, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1669-18#Text. [7] "Despite Violence and Threats in East, Ukraine Election Characterized by High Turnout and Resolve to Guarantee Fundamental Freedoms, International Observers Say," OSCE, May 26, 2014, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/119081. ; "Ukraine, Early Parliamentary Elections, 26 October 2014: Final Report," OSCE, December 19, 2014, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ukraine/132556.[8] "Presidential Election, 31 March and 21 April 2019." OSCE. Accessed November 15, 2023. https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ukraine/407660. ; "Early Parliamentary Elections, 21 July 2019," OSCE, accessed November 15, 2023, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ukraine/422585. [9] Andrian Prokip, "Ukraine's State of Martial Law: A Surprise, with Political Undertones," web log, Focus Ukraine (blog) (Wilson Center, November 29, 2018), https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-state-martial-law-surprise-political-undertones. [10] Mykhailo Minakov, "The Three Ages of Zelensky's Presidency," web log, Focus Ukraine (blog) (Wilson Center, June 9, 2022), https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/three-ages-zelenskys-presidency. ; Minakov, Mikhail. "War, De-Oligarchization, and the Possibility of Anti-Patronal Transformation in Ukraine." In Ukraine's Patronal Democracy and the Russian Invasion: The Russia-Ukraine War, Volume One, edited by Bálint Madlovics and Bálint Magyar, 141–66. Central European University Press, 2023. https://doi.org/10.7829/jj.3985461.9. [11] "Проект Закону про затвердження Указу Президента України "Про введення воєнного стану в Україні"", Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, March 24, 2022, https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/39147.[12] "Про продовження строку дії воєнного стану в Україні", Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, August 17, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/451/2023#Text.[13] "Проект Закону про схвалення Указу Президента України "Про використання Збройних Сил України та інших військових формувань"", Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, March 3, 2022, https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/39151.[14] Serhii Tarasov, "The Role of Civil-Military Cooperation in the Protection of Civilians: The Ukraine Experience", Center for Civilians in Conflict, October 2023, https://civiliansinconflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/The-Role-of-Civil-Military-Cooperation-in-Protection-of-Civilians-The-Ukraine-Experience.pdf.[15] "Про оборону України," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, April 15, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1932-12#n138. ; "Про правовий режим воєнного стану," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, October 19, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/389-19#n5. [16] "Проект Закону про оголошення стану війни," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, February 24, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20220413044605/http:/w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc4_1?pf3511=73873.[17] "Russian Gas Transit through Ukraine," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, October 3, 2023, https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/.[18] "Про правовий режим воєнного стану," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, October 19, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/389-19#Text. ; "Election Code of Ukraine," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, July 16, 2020, https://cvk.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Election-Code-of-Ukraine.pdf. [19] "Ukraine Releases 2024 Budget Plan, More Spending on Military, but Raising Enough Funding Will Be Tough", Intellinews, September 28, 2023, https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-releases-2024-budget-plan-more-spending-on-military-but-raising-enough-funding-will-be-tough-294429/.[20] Andriy Karakuts, Yuriy Schedrin, and Oleksandra Davymuka, rep., "Future of Ukraine Workforce" Center for Applied Research, May 2023, https://cpd.com.ua/future-of-ukraine-workforce.pdf. [21] Andriy Karakuts, Yuriy Schedrin, Oleksandra Davymuka, "Future of Ukraine Workforce," Center for Applied Research, https://cpd.com.ua/future-of-ukraine-workforce.pdf. ; "Report on Ukraine Refugees," UN, Accessed November 15, 2023, https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.[22] Ella Libanova, "Ukraine's Demography in the Second Year of the Full-Fledged War," Focus Ukraine, June 27, 2023, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-year-full-fledged-war.[23] "Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country," Razumkov Center, October 15, 2023, https://razumkov.org.ua/en/component/k2/citizens-assessment-of-the-situation-in-the-country-trust-in-social-institutions-politicians-officials-and-public-figures-attitude-to-holding-national-elections-in-ukraine-before-the-end-of-the-war-september-2023.[24] "National Survey of Ukraine: October 2023," IRI/Rating Group, October 27, 2023, https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/vseukra_nske_opituvannya_m_zhnarodnogo_respubl_kanskogo_nstitutu_iri_zhovten2023.html. ; "When Elections Should Be Held, Attitudes Towards Online Voting and Possible Restrictions on Citiyens Rights," Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, October 30, 2023, https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1309&page=1.[25] Sergiy Sdorenko and Tiny Kox, "Nobody Will Blame Ukraine If Post-War Elections Are Not Perfect." Interview with PACE President," Ukrainiska Pravda, May 16, 2023, https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2023/05/16/7161793/.

President Volodymyr Zelensky and the current Ukrainian parliament are approaching the hour when their formal legitimacy, their mandate, comes to an end. Under normal conditions, elections to the Verkhovna Rada would have been held last October, while candidates for the presidency would have started preparing for elections scheduled for the last Sunday in March of 2024. But the country is consumed by war, and elections are probably not an option. Or are they? President Zelensky is considering the answer to this question. [1]I should state at the outset that I find the idea of organizing elections, whether presidential only or both presidential and parliamentary, during wartime is a very bad idea. At the same time, I also disagree with those who think the matter of postponing elections can be settled purely by having recourse to existing laws.In this brief I show that the ruling group could, if it chose, adopt some legal maneuvering that would formally respect the constitution and the nation's laws (though violating their spirit), and that these maneuvers have been tested several times in Ukraine since 2014. But such formally legal if doubtfully legitimate elections could also pose unjustifiably high sociopolitical risks for a state at war, and this creates a dilemma for the nation.Defining the Wartime Electoral DilemmaCurrently, the Zelensky administration is under pressure to organize parliamentary and presidential elections soon. The first source of the pressure is the West.[2] Behind the scenes, Ukraine's allies are allegedly demanding that Kyiv renew its government's legitimacy, despite the ongoing war and the mass dislocation of citizens. Ukraine's allies know well the constitutional limitations on wartime elections in Ukraine. They also know that the current legal regime is "flexible" enough to find legal ways of organizing elections. After all, they point out, the war started in 2014, and thereafter two presidents and two parliaments were elected. Also, some opposition-minded groups in the United States and Europe are casting doubt on the democratic nature of Ukraine's government as a reason to reduce the military and financial support being provided to Ukraine.[2] Elections would help the Western pro-Ukrainian governments overcome these objections at home in the upcoming budgetary debates.A second source of pressure to hold elections is the domestic political situation. After a very uneven, challenging, and tragic five-year governing effort that had to deal with the "Green Wave" of radical reforms, the COVID-19 pandemic, growing clashes with opposition groups, and Russia's full-fledged invasion, President Zelensky and his party need to renew their mandate. For the sake of political stability they must demonstrate their democratic legitimacy to the nation, the opposition, and, especially, the army. Whatever future awaits Ukraine, whether protracted war or peace negotiations, the government must be regarded as fully legitimate and must be trusted by its constituencies and the military to cope with upcoming challenges.Under such circumstances, Volodymyr Zelensky and his closest associates must resolve the dilemma: to hold elections or not to hold elections. Each choice has pros and cons.Reasons to defer elections. Russia's war of attrition goes on and demands all the government's attention and all the nation's resources. There are also many constitutional, legal, and political reasons for not holding elections.[4] To organize meaningful, free, and fair elections, Kyiv would need to lift the many political restrictions that were put in place to create national solidary and a singular national focus on achieving victory. This means that the government would need to revise electoral legislation, create new tools to enable the vast number of displaced citizens to vote, allow a more capacious writ and greater ideological diversity of the media, and restart political competition. Reasons not to defer elections. On the other hand, without the essential democratic legitimacy conferred by free and fair elections, it may soon be impossible to govern a nation embroiled in a war for freedom. Even more, if elections were organized, they would need to be conducted in a way that citizens—whether serving at the front or working in the rear or living in the occupied territories—fully recognized that the campaign and ballot count were honest. Ukrainians have a record of revolts provoked by a suspicious electoral process and results.[5] The wartime legal, administrative, socioeconomic, and demographic problems could influence any elections in a big way and so rattle the political order and divert the government's attention from the needs of the front. Legal-Political Flexibility as Ukraine's Answer to a Long WarDespite pressures for—and expert voices against—holding the elections in wartime, Zelensky's team is taking into account Ukraine's recent experience in living under conditions of war. The war in Ukraine started de facto with Russia's first acts of aggression, in 2014, and has now spread throughout the country with Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. However, de jure, the war between Russia and Ukraine has seen three different legal regimes during the past nine years. First, between April 15, 2014, and April 30, 2018, Ukraine existed in the regime of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO), which was a set of military and legal measures adopted by Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and aimed at countering Russian and pro-Russian armed groups in the war in eastern Ukraine. This regime limited some civil rights in some territories, but it was not martial law.[6] So both presidential and parliamentary elections could be conducted in 2014 in all regions not directly affected by war. Both presidential and parliamentary elections were internationally recognized as free and fair, despite military actions in some oblasts and the inability of voters to participate in elections in Crimea and some districts of the Donbas.[7] The legal regime flexibly mixed elements of martial law and peacetime politics.Second, between April 30, 2018, and February 24, 2022, the regime of the Joint Forces Operation was in effect which continued the logic of the ATO in slightly different military and administrative terms. Again, this flexible legal-political regime allowed free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in 2019, despite the ongoing war in the Donbas and the annexed Crimea.[8] Even though President Petro Poroshenko attempted to impose martial law and postpone the elections of 2019, the Verkhovna Rada resisted his efforts and saved the elections in a form characteristic of peacetime.[9]The same legal flexibility allowed Zelensky to use military elements of the legal regime and to start using the Security Council as a core instrument in his fight with the oligarchs in 2020–2021.[10]The third legal regime started with Russia's full-fledged invasion on February 24, 2022. It was thought that this time, Ukraine's legal-political flexibility would not be up to the task. But again, some legal-political flexibility remained: martial law (voiennyi stan) was imposed without declaration of a state of war (stan viiny) and war on Russia. Indeed, de jure, martial law was initiated by Volodymyr Zelensky and approved by the Rada on February 24, 2022.[11] Since then the process has been repeated regularly, with martial law being continued for several months ahead at each approval.[12] This time, the legal order of war was additionally defined by the Law on the Use of the Armed Forces and other military formations to defend the country.[13] Military-civil administrations started governing all regions of Ukraine, and civilian associations, mass media outlets, and political parties began functioning under wartime restrictions.[14]According to the laws on the legal regime of martial law and on defense, martial law was introduced to avert the threat to the nation and to repel armed aggression in all regions of Ukraine.[15] The laws on martial law and on defense provide state authorities, the military command, military administrations, and local self-government bodies with special powers necessary to fight the enemy. Also, as allowed by the constitution's Article 64, certain temporary restrictions on many civil rights and freedoms were imposed. Altogether, the various ramifications of the legal regime of martial law have directly affected domestic political processes.At the same time, the Ukrainian government did not announce a state of war and did not declare war on Russia. Volodymyr Zelensky submitted to parliament a draft law on the declaration of a state of war, but it was never considered by parliament (and only the web archive has actually preserved some traces of this step).[16] Even though a state of war regime is mentioned in the Ukrainian constitution, it has never been defined. Where does the concept of a "state of war" come from, particularly with reference to Ukraine and its political-legal flexibility? In a nutshell, the concept stems from international agreements such as the Third Hague Convention on the Opening of Hostilities (1907) or the UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 (1974), both of which introduce the concepts of war and aggression (Ukraine is a signatory to both). They define the norm according to which one state may not initiate military action against another state absent a declaration of war or an ultimatum. They also stipulate that the use of armed force by one state is sufficient evidence of an act of aggression against another state. By not announcing war on Russia and not introducing a state of war, the Ukrainian government has some flexibility, for example, in continuing to transit Russian gas to the EU.[17] So, even after announcing martial law, the government of Ukraine has preserved some element of legal-political flexibility by not declaring war on Russia.All three legal-political regimes have allowed and prepared Ukrainians to adapt their political and legal systems, as well as their communal life and economy, to the conditions of a temporally protracted and spatially enlarging war. This adaptability has immersed Ukrainian institutions in a state of legal, political, security, and even military affairs that has proved rather flexible in merging de jure and de facto situations. For example, it has allowed the nation to survive when some of its territory was occupied by Russia or Russia-backed separatists—yet there are front-line areas with vast Ukrainian military operations. There are also the rear regions where, prior to the current state of conflict, Ukrainians continued to live and work. And before 2022, but during wartime, they enjoyed competitive elections, the division of power, functional courts, and active participation in international relations. This flexibility, whose roots survived even after 2022, may be used by the ruling group to organize yet another wartime election. And Western allies know it well. Does the Current Legal Regime Allow Elections in Ukraine? Usually, elections are not conducted in countries at war. However, if the war is protracted, elections might be needed to reestablish the domestic and international legitimacy of the government. The Ukrainian constitution and its laws do not provide a clear answer to this question, and this ambiguity is one of the sources of wartime Ukraine's legal-political flexibility.Indeed, the constitution's Article 83 states that if the term of service of the Verkhovna Rada expires when the country is under martial law, its authority is extended until a new parliament is elected. This and other constitutional provisions cannot be changed while martial law is in effect (Article 157). However, the constitution does not prohibit either presidential or local elections from being held. The restrictions on presidential and local elections are provided for in the Law on Martial Law and the Electoral Code's Articles 20 and 280.[18] These stipulations, however, can be changed by parliament and approved by the president, if there is political will to do so. Thus, if the Ukrainian political class agrees, presidential elections can be conducted under martial law next year. Even more, if the president and the Rada agree, they could stop continuing the regime of martial law, despite ongoing military actions on the soil of Ukraine. That way even parliamentary elections could be legally held. However, in such a case the legality and the legitimacy of the decisions would openly contradict each other.In sum, the existing legal-political flexibility indeed provides an opportunity for elections. But it neither resolves the question of the essential democratic legitimacy of elections held during a de facto war nor decreases the risk of desolidarization of society during competitive elections. Security Risks around Wartime Elections Despite all the legal workarounds and some benefits that flexibility can bring, elections pose an existential risk for a nation at war. Ukraine has nonetheless held elections in the face of this risk after 2014, but with the current war of vastly greater scale than earlier stages of the conflict and having an incalculably greater influence on Ukrainian society, economy, and political institutions, the former success may not be repeatable. If elections are attempted in 2024, they may lead to disaster for Ukraine.Ukrainian experts who publicly oppose the decision to hold elections in 2024 typically adduce two arguments. The first is that the constitution and laws prohibit elections when the country is under martial law. This argument has its weak side: there are ways to get around such prohibitions, as discussed above. The second argument is stronger: the sociopolitical order will face overwhelming challenges to its stability if elections are conducted during wartime. The reasoning here usually refers to the unjustifiably high costs of elections and the fact that they would undermine national unity during war. Wartime elections would indeed drag a hugely sensitized society into debates that might still be constrained by the needs of war and into voting that might not be well attended by so many displaced citizens, reducing representation. Here is the major contradiction that makes wartime elections so potentially destructive. If the aim is to uphold and reinforce by democratic means the legitimacy of the government, elections must be free, honest, based on open debate and competition, and accessible to all voters. If some element on this list is missing, the aim of elections will not be achieved. Also, if some element on this list is missing, the sensitized Ukrainian society, which already trusts military institutions more than it trusts civilian, democratic ones, might protest en masse. The picture is even more contradictory: if resources are so scarce as to hamper the country's defense efforts, and if international support is slowing, then diverting resources away from defense and toward some other purpose is counterproductive. Indeed, allocating human, administrative, and financial resources to elections during a war of attrition is an unjustifiable luxury. Over 47 percent of the Ukrainian budget for 2024 is planned to come from external sources.[19] And these sources, as the current debates in the U.S. Congress demonstrate, may not be as generous as in 2022–2023. Every public and economic sector in Ukraine reports a growing deficit in human resources.[20] Well over six million Ukrainians have left the country, and many of them—over a million, at a minimum—live on the territory of the aggressor state.[21] Over three million Ukrainians are fighting to survive in internal displacement. Another four million Ukrainians live in Russia-occupied Ukrainian territory.[22] Under such conditions, it would be close to impossible to organize an inclusive and accessible voting apparatus. And that would put in doubt the legitimacy of any government elected under such conditions.The question of legitimacy gains another wrinkle when citizens' fading trust in the government and democratic institutions is considered. After almost two years of life under martial law, Ukrainian society shows signs of stable trust in security institutions and declining trust in public organizations. Even though polls conducted under conditions of war have, as expected, a large margin of error, the results still deserve attention for the social dynamics and the relative ratios they reveal. For example, according to a recent poll by the Razumkov Center, a nongovernmental think tank, the most trusted state bodies include military or war-related institutions and organizations: the armed forces (93 percent of respondents trust them), volunteer organizations (that support the army, 84 percent), the National Guard (81 percent), the State Border Service (76.5 percent), the president (who is commander in chief, 72 percent), the Ministry of Defense (71 percent), and the Security Service (66 percent).[23] But trust in democracy-related institutions is falling. The majority of respondents expressed distrust in political parties (74 percent), public officials (72 percent), the courts (70 percent), parliament (64 percent), the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (53 percent), and the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (52 percent). Despite being dissatisfied with the civil part of government, the population remaining within Ukraine's borders is opposed to the prospect of elections in 2024. According to the same Razumkov Center poll, only 15 percent of respondents support holding national elections before the end of the war, with almost two-thirds (64 percent) rejecting such a proposal and 21 percent of respondents undecided. Election supporters argue that elections are necessary to support democracy in the country (6 percent) and to show the world that Ukraine is a democratic state (5 percent); another 5 percent see the need to change the government or at least to renew President Zelensky's mandate (5 percent). Election opponents argue that elections are too expensive for the current state budget (36 percent), that the legislation does not allow them (32 percent), that voting would be insecure (31 percent), and that, under martial law, it is impossible to observe democratic standards (29 percent).These data are supported by many other polls (such as ones conducted by KIIS and the IRI/Rating Group).[24] Altogether they show that Ukraine's wartime society has greater trust in the army than in civil authorities and values elections only if they are conducted as a genuine democratic process. More generally, even if a political system were to develop some adaptive legal-political flexibility, war is not conducive to democracy-reinforcing elections.Let's Wait on Elections and Focus on Core IssuesI want to stress that the vox populi as represented, with all caveats, in the above polls and in experts' analysis is aligned, for one good reason: Under current military conditions in Ukraine, it would be hugely risky to conduct elections. All available resources must be poured into defense and achieving victory.Elections would most likely not respond to the legitimate expectations of citizens and would not comply with OSCE standards. Even if the wartime restrictions on the political rights and freedoms of citizens and on the operations of the mass media were canceled, it would arguably take another year to return to the pre-2022 mode of operations. Public debate has long been absent, and Ukrainian society is fragmented, with new cleavages. It will take time for political parties to address both issues and restart meaningful competition for the voters' sympathies in Ukraine. Without such careful preparation of society, elections would be a senseless formality that would only intensify the population's dissatisfaction with the government and negative reactions to those Western nations pushing for elections to be held. Even if some European politicians might not insist on the proper democratic quality to any election, the Ukrainian citizenry would be quite unlikely to tolerate electoral incongruencies.[25] And Zelensky needs real, essential democratic legitimacy in 2024. I believe that the Zelensky administration should resist all pressures and postpone elections. Instead, it should address legitimate dissatisfaction with the public administration and the lack of access to trusted mass media, and focus on the major security needs of Ukraine.[1] Sky News: "President Zelenskyy weighing up spring presidential elections," Sky News, November 3, 2023, https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-russian-man-arrested-for-passing-secrets-to-ukraine-moscow-ready-for-talks-on-post-conflict-settlement-12541713?postid=6708241#liveblog-body. [2] David L. Stern, Catherine Belton, John Hudson, "Western Officials Press Ukraine to Hold Elections," Washington Post, September 24, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/24/ukraine-elections-war-russia-west/.[3] "Zelensky showing 'authoritarian traits', says Swiss intelligence report," Swissinfo, July 9, 2023, https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/politics/zelensky-showing--authoritarian-traits---says-swiss-intelligence-report/48652496. ; Harry Enten, "How Republicans Have Grown More Skeptical of Zelensky and Ukraine," CNN, September 21, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/21/politics/republicans-zelensky-ukraine-polls-skeptical/index.html[4] Olga Aivazovska, "Opinion: Elections and War Are Incompatible," The Kyiv Independent, November 1, 2023, https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-elections-and-war-are-incompatible/. [5] "Orange Revolution," Encyclopædia Britannica, accessed November 15, 2023, https://www.britannica.com/topic/Orange-Revolution. [6] "Про Тимчасові Заходи На Період Проведення Антитерористичної Операції," Офіційний вебпортал парламенту України, June 2, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1669-18#Text. [7] "Despite Violence and Threats in East, Ukraine Election Characterized by High Turnout and Resolve to Guarantee Fundamental Freedoms, International Observers Say," OSCE, May 26, 2014, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/119081. ; "Ukraine, Early Parliamentary Elections, 26 October 2014: Final Report," OSCE, December 19, 2014, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ukraine/132556.[8] "Presidential Election, 31 March and 21 April 2019." OSCE. Accessed November 15, 2023. https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ukraine/407660. ; "Early Parliamentary Elections, 21 July 2019," OSCE, accessed November 15, 2023, https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ukraine/422585. [9] Andrian Prokip, "Ukraine's State of Martial Law: A Surprise, with Political Undertones," web log, Focus Ukraine (blog) (Wilson Center, November 29, 2018), https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-state-martial-law-surprise-political-undertones. [10] Mykhailo Minakov, "The Three Ages of Zelensky's Presidency," web log, Focus Ukraine (blog) (Wilson Center, June 9, 2022), https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/three-ages-zelenskys-presidency. ; Minakov, Mikhail. "War, De-Oligarchization, and the Possibility of Anti-Patronal Transformation in Ukraine." In Ukraine's Patronal Democracy and the Russian Invasion: The Russia-Ukraine War, Volume One, edited by Bálint Madlovics and Bálint Magyar, 141–66. Central European University Press, 2023. https://doi.org/10.7829/jj.3985461.9. [11] "Проект Закону про затвердження Указу Президента України "Про введення воєнного стану в Україні"", Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, March 24, 2022, https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/39147.[12] "Про продовження строку дії воєнного стану в Україні", Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, August 17, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/451/2023#Text.[13] "Проект Закону про схвалення Указу Президента України "Про використання Збройних Сил України та інших військових формувань"", Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, March 3, 2022, https://itd.rada.gov.ua/billInfo/Bills/Card/39151.[14] Serhii Tarasov, "The Role of Civil-Military Cooperation in the Protection of Civilians: The Ukraine Experience", Center for Civilians in Conflict, October 2023, https://civiliansinconflict.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/The-Role-of-Civil-Military-Cooperation-in-Protection-of-Civilians-The-Ukraine-Experience.pdf.[15] "Про оборону України," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, April 15, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/1932-12#n138. ; "Про правовий режим воєнного стану," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, October 19, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/389-19#n5. [16] "Проект Закону про оголошення стану війни," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, February 24, 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20220413044605/http:/w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc4_1?pf3511=73873.[17] "Russian Gas Transit through Ukraine," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, October 3, 2023, https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/.[18] "Про правовий режим воєнного стану," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, October 19, 2023, https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/389-19#Text. ; "Election Code of Ukraine," Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, July 16, 2020, https://cvk.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Election-Code-of-Ukraine.pdf. [19] "Ukraine Releases 2024 Budget Plan, More Spending on Military, but Raising Enough Funding Will Be Tough", Intellinews, September 28, 2023, https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-releases-2024-budget-plan-more-spending-on-military-but-raising-enough-funding-will-be-tough-294429/.[20] Andriy Karakuts, Yuriy Schedrin, and Oleksandra Davymuka, rep., "Future of Ukraine Workforce" Center for Applied Research, May 2023, https://cpd.com.ua/future-of-ukraine-workforce.pdf. [21] Andriy Karakuts, Yuriy Schedrin, Oleksandra Davymuka, "Future of Ukraine Workforce," Center for Applied Research, https://cpd.com.ua/future-of-ukraine-workforce.pdf. ; "Report on Ukraine Refugees," UN, Accessed November 15, 2023, https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine.[22] Ella Libanova, "Ukraine's Demography in the Second Year of the Full-Fledged War," Focus Ukraine, June 27, 2023, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-demography-second-year-full-fledged-war.[23] "Citizens' assessment of the situation in the country," Razumkov Center, October 15, 2023, https://razumkov.org.ua/en/component/k2/citizens-assessment-of-the-situation-in-the-country-trust-in-social-institutions-politicians-officials-and-public-figures-attitude-to-holding-national-elections-in-ukraine-before-the-end-of-the-war-september-2023.[24] "National Survey of Ukraine: October 2023," IRI/Rating Group, October 27, 2023, https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/vseukra_nske_opituvannya_m_zhnarodnogo_respubl_kanskogo_nstitutu_iri_zhovten2023.html. ; "When Elections Should Be Held, Attitudes Towards Online Voting and Possible Restrictions on Citiyens Rights," Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, October 30, 2023, https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1309&page=1.[25] Sergiy Sdorenko and Tiny Kox, "Nobody Will Blame Ukraine If Post-War Elections Are Not Perfect." Interview with PACE President," Ukrainiska Pravda, May 16, 2023, https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2023/05/16/7161793/.

Después de años de «fatiga europea» respecto a la ampliación, la futura entrada de nuevos miembros ha vuelto a la agenda de la Unión Europea (UE). El objetivo es acomodar la Unión a los efectos derivados de la guerra en Ucrania y, en este contexto, los Balcanes occidentales adquieren una nueva importancia geopolítica. Sin embargo, para que el proceso sea creíble, es necesario proporcionar recursos adecuados, fortalecer la diplomacia en el frente suroriental y afrontar la reestructuración institucional de la UE a fin de articular una organización y funcionamiento ágiles y eficientes, desde la unidad de acción. La cumbre de Granada del 5 y 6 de octubre de 2023 ha sido un reflejo de esta voluntad potenciadora de la soberanía europea y de la seguridad colectiva, pero también una llamada a los estados candidatos para que obren en consecuencia e implementen las reformas necesarias.El 14 de septiembre de 2022, la presidenta de la Comisión Europea, Ursula von der Leyen, declaraba: «Así que quiero que los ciudadanos de los Balcanes occidentales, de Ucrania, de Moldavia y de Georgia sepan lo siguiente: formáis parte de nuestra familia, vuestro futuro está en nuestra Unión, y nuestra Unión no está completa sin vosotros». El debate sobre la ampliación de la UE vuelve a estar sobre la mesa de los veintisiete estados miembros, incluso en la de aquellos más reticentes. Francia, tradicionalmente remisa a las ampliaciones, sobre todo hacia el este europeo, ha tenido que reconocer su importancia para la seguridad colectiva de Europa. La invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia representa una amenaza al corazón de Europa. En este nuevo contexto de revisión de la política de defensa común, del concepto de seguridad estratégica y de la importancia de la vecindad, la agresión rusa también ha ejercido de catalizador para reestructurar la UE y su política de ampliación. Así, el presidente francés, Emmanuel Macron, declaraba en el Globsec Forum el 31 de mayo de 2023, en Bratislava, que la UE debía ampliarse «lo antes posible»1. El 28 de agosto, la propuesta fue, si cabe, más entusiasta. El presidente del Consejo Europeo, Charles Michel, se animó a decir en el Foro Estratégico de Bled, donde se reunieron diferentes líderes de Europa Central y del Este, que: «La ampliación ya no es un sueño (…) Es hora de seguir adelante», y agregó: «Creo que debemos estar preparados, por ambas partes, para una ampliación de aquí a 2030». Aunque Michel no tardó en puntualizar que el ingreso sería acorde con los méritos de cada Estado, el hecho de dejar caer una fecha ya tiene un peso específico.Esta predisposición de las autoridades europeas ofrece tres niveles de análisis. El primero revela que dicho impulso es un cambio de orientación respecto al rumbo tomado desde 2014 cuando, durante el mandato de Jean Claude Juncker, se oficializó la parálisis de los procesos de adhesión. Entonces se justificó por la llamada «fatiga europea» de la ampliación –en un momento de creciente escepticismo y contestación del proyecto europeo, tanto desde dentro como desde fuera de la Unión–, aunque también reveló la falta de preparación de los estados miembros para integrar nuevos socios. Desde el final del mandato de Juncker y, sobre todo, a partir del mandato de Ursula von der Leyen, el compromiso y la asertividad han cambiado.El segundo nivel está relacionado con una coyuntura bélica: el eje franco-alemán apuesta por la ampliación, porque la guerra en Ucrania ha generado una urgencia geoestratégica. Sin embargo, la entrada de nuevos socios hace necesaria una restructuración ambiciosa de la UE, y tanto en París como en Berlín hay preocupación, no solo sobre cómo proceder para garantizar la absorción de tantos países sin que las instituciones pierdan eficacia, sino también por la falta de avances en las reformas de los candidatos.Por último, el tercer nivel, se relaciona con los Balcanes occidentales, los llamados «WB 6»2, los cuales aunque candidatos3, también son aspirantes con fases diferentes de progreso, con escenarios particulares tanto a nivel de política doméstica como regional. En este caso, la última década ha estado marcada por el inmovilismo, las falsas promesas y los vetos de los países miembros, lo que ha hecho incrementar el escepticismo en torno a una efectiva ampliación hacia la región. Croacia, el último país en incorporarse a la UE, fue miembro de pleno derecho en 2013, y sus negociaciones para el ingreso duraron más de cinco años; por su parte, Rumanía y Bulgaria, que entraron en 2007, tardaron casi cinco años y Lituania, que lo hizo en 2004, más de tres. Montenegro lleva esperando 11 años (Knaus y Bender, 2022). La «fatiga europea»: lecciones aprendidas A pesar de ser impersonales, las instituciones aprenden de sus errores y, por ejemplo, una ampliación como la de 2007 –cuando entraron en el «club» comunitario Rumania y Bulgaria– destapó los problemas de una integración precipitada. Asimismo, el hecho de que Polonia y Hungría (que ingresaron en 2004) hayan demostrado que, incluso dentro de la Unión, los países miembros pueden no compartir valores cruciales o hacer primar sus intereses nacionales en perjuicio del proyecto común, también inspira desconfianza de sobresaturar la agenda con litigios y debates introspectivos.Durante la última década, los efectos de las políticas de austeridad con motivo de la crisis financiera de 2008, de la primavera árabe en 2011, del Euromaidan en 2014, de la crisis de gestión de los refugiados en 2015, del Brexit en 2016 o de la pandemia de la COVID-19 en 2020 exigieron muchos esfuerzos y recursos diplomáticos. Como resultado, la ampliación no ha sido una cuestión prioritaria para la UE, más allá del trabajo desarrollado en este sentido por la Comisión Europea y de las declaraciones propositivas en las cumbres europeas. Y ello por varios motivos: la integración pide consensos absolutos, la opinión pública europea no ha sido favorable y los Balcanes occidentales han planteado y plantean importantes retos para la absorción. Por otro lado, la existencia de tendencias antiliberales durante esta década en varios estados miembros ha cuestionado la capacidad de la UE de promover una política de ampliación que sea transformadora o creíble en la exportación de valores democráticos (Kmezić y Bieber, 2017).Sea como fuere, la parálisis de la ampliación derivó en toda una serie de consecuencias negativas para los intereses de la UE y de los países candidatos. En primer término, desvirtuó el principio de condicionalidad, ya que los gobiernos y los equipos de trabajo de los Balcanes occidentales dejaron de encontrar incentivos para las reformas. En su defecto, la UE y los estados miembros apostaron por la securitización de la región (la llamada estabilocracia), una de cuyasconsecuencias fue que las autoridades europeas se mostraron acríticas con la deriva autocrática de algunos líderes locales que, aunque afianzaban la seguridad regional, no impulsaban las reformas exigidas desde Bruselas. En un periodo de cuatro años, indicadores de democratización como Bertelsmann Transformation Index, EIU Democracy Index o Freedom House mostraron un creciente autoritarismo en la región (Lavrič y Bieber, 2020); por ejemplo, la concentración de poder en las élites políticas, la captura del Estado por parte de los partidos en el poder, niveles elevados de corrupción (y su sofisticación) y, en la mayoría de los casos, un descenso de los niveles de libertad de prensa.En segundo lugar, elrepliegue estratégico respecto a la ampliación generó un vacío de poder en los Balcanes occidentales, y países como China y Rusia han intensificado su presencia en la zona. Es cierto que la UE es el principal socio comercial de los Balcanes Occidentales y representa más de dos tercios del comercio total de la región. Sin embargo, China ha aumentado su actividad en la región sustancialmente. Según el Balkan Investigative Reporting Network, el gigante asiático invirtió 32.000 millones de euros en la región entre 2009 y 2021, de los que 10.300 millones fueron a parar a Serbia. En 2020, los préstamos de capital chino concedidos como porcentaje del PIB ascendían al 3% en Bosnia y Herzegovina; al 7% en Serbia, que tiene el mayor número de proyectos financiados; al 8% en Macedonia del Norte y, el caso más destacado, al 21% en Montenegro. En 2015 el Gobierno de Podgorica adquirió un préstamo para la construcción de una autopista cuyo valor ascendió a casi 1.000 millones de euros, deuda luego refinanciada por bancos occidentales. Se calcula que más de la mitad de las inversiones realizadas por las empresas chinas en territorio europeo van a parar a los Balcanes occidentales. Estas inversiones no son necesariamente negativas, ya que favorecen el empleo y el crecimiento económico, además de aumentar la integración regional como pasa con la autopista de Montenegro que llegará hasta Serbia. Sin embargo, representan una amenaza cuando atraen el intercambio opaco de favores entre líderes, carecen de los debidos controles regulatorios y abren la puerta a injerencias que afectan a la esfera de la seguridad de Europa y, por lo tanto, de la UE.Del mismo modo, la presencia de Rusia se ha incrementado en la zona desde el 17 de febrero de 2008, cuando Serbia, tras la declaración de independencia de Kosovo, estrechó sus lazos con el Kremlin. Ese mismo año se concedió una participación mayoritaria de la empresa serbia de gas y petróleo, Naftna Industrija Srbije, a la empresa Gazprom, controlada por Moscú. El apoyo de Putin a Belgrado en el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas es clave en cuestiones centrales de la política doméstica serbia, y de enorme impacto regional, como puede ser el no reconocimiento de Kosovo o el no reconocimiento del genocidio de Srebrenica. Rusia procura desprestigiar a la OTAN y a la UE a través de sus medios de comunicación, dedicados a enfatizar las contradicciones de ambas organizaciones, y apoya la movilización del nacionalismo serbio, además de promover una agenda conservadora basada, por ejemplo, en la militarización (Bechev, 2017). El Kremlin tiene como estrategia ser influyente en Serbia y entre los serbios del norte de Kosovo, en la República Srpska (entidad de Bosnia y Herzegovina) o en Montenegro. A pesar de todo ello, también se pueden extraer lecciones positivas de esta última década tanto para la UE como para los países candidatos. El Proceso de Berlín –una iniciativa de varios estados miembros, liderada por Alemania, para reforzar el vínculo con los WB 6 y promover la cooperación regional y la adhesión a la Unión– y las cumbres de los líderes de la UE con sus homólogos de los Balcanes occidentales han tenido un papel útil en cuanto a la conectividad y las relaciones intergubernamentales, lo que ha dado como resultado importantes avances en transporte, comunicación o reconocimiento de documentos oficiales; teniendo en cuenta, sin embargo, que mucho de lo acordado aún debe ratificarse por los parlamentos nacionales.En cualquier caso, la principal lección aprendida es que la ausencia de una perspectiva clara de ampliación expone las debilidades, contradicciones y titubeos de la UE, lo que es aprovechado por sus rivales y competidores en la región de los Balcanes occidentales. Hacia una política real de ampliación A fin de avanzar en el proyecto de integración, las últimas iniciativas en cuanto a provisión de fondos y nuevos mecanismos de financiación de la UE para la región, prometidos por la presidenta Ursula von der Leyen en junio de 2023, en cuestiones tan centrales como el acceso al mercado único como motor de cambio, dan cuenta del compromiso de Bruselas. Pero de ello también se desprende que la disposición a la ampliación de la UE, incluso la profundización sectorial en materias como la digitalización, la transición energética o la agenda verde, no implican obligatoriamente un deseo de integrar nuevos miembros, al menos de momento. Los estados miembros no están preparados en la actualidad para una nueva ampliación. De hecho, como consecuencia de la voluntad de ampliarse manifestada por la Comisión Europea, han emergido preguntas sobre cómo consolidar este proceso sin dañar el futuro de la Unión.La UE carece de la maniobrabilidad de un Estado, y esto entorpece la acción institucional ante situaciones inadvertidas que exigen de una capacidad de reacción tenaz, cohesionada y eventualmente flexible. Existen aspectos decisivos que tratar antes de la ampliación, como los siguientes: cómo repartir el poder político derivado del aumento demográfico de la UE, cómo redistribuir los fondos de cohesión o cómo lograr consensos y unidad de acción cuando los países integrantes superen la treintena, habida cuenta de los problemas existentes para alcanzar la unanimidad con 27, sobre todo en materias tan sensibles como la fiscalidad o defensa. La misma reforma de los tratados constitutivos de la UE, necesaria para proceder a la reestructuración del funcionamiento de las instituciones europeas, ya obliga de por sí a la unanimidad, y en esa tarea hay países que pueden bloquear el proceso.Con tal efecto, el 19 de septiembre de 2023 fue objeto de debate en el Consejo de Asuntos Generales de la UE el informe titulado «Navegando en alta mar: reformar y ampliar la UE para el siglo xxi», presentado por un grupo franco-alemán de doce expertos, invitados por las ministras europeas de Francia y Alemania, Laurence Boone y Anna Lührmann, respectivamente. Una de las propuestas fundamentales del informe hace referencia a la toma de decisiones, al proponer redefinir la mayoría cualificada. En este momento, el sistema de doble mayoría que rige las votaciones en el Consejo de ministros requiere los votos del 55% de los estados miembros que representen a una mayoría del 65% de la población de la Unión. Los expertos defienden que una manera de hacer la extensión de la mayoría cualificada más «aceptable» sería elevar el listón hasta un 60% de los estados miembros que representen el 60% de la población de la UE. Las mayorías cualificadas no solo evitarán que una reforma de la Unión sea objeto del bloqueo de un Estado miembro, sino que también impedirán la desnaturalización del derecho de veto, como el que sufrió Macedonia del Norte con Grecia en su camino a la UE –para el cambio constitucional de su nombre– o con Bulgaria –para incluir a la minoría búlgara en su texto constitucional–. Los expertos también se pronunciaron a favor de «incrementar el presupuesto de la UE en el próximo período presupuestario tanto en tamaño nominal como en relación con el PIB», planteamiento que debería afectar positivamente a los países candidatos, ya que hasta ahora se viene produciendo una asimetría política, pero también económica, entre los estados que disfrutan de la pertenencia a la UE y los que no. Un capítulo importante del informe se refiere al método de las reformas de los países candidatos, que se plantean como un avance gradual: podrán participar en determinadas políticas antes de su adhesión formal, defendiendo el carácter reversible de las negociaciones si los candidatos no cumplen con los criterios objetivos de adhesión y una mayor sistematización mediante fases regidas por el principio de condicionalidad. Este planteamiento no es nuevo, al estar ya incluido en la nueva metodología de ampliación propuesta por la Comisión Europea.El informe también tiene una sección sobre el Estado de derecho, recomendando fortalecer el llamado procedimiento del Artículo 7 del Tratado de la Unión Europea, que permitiría sancionar a los países miembros que violen los valores fundamentales de la Unión de una manera rápida y resolutiva. El documento aborda otras cuestiones, pero hace especial énfasis en dos aspectos que inquietan respecto a los Balcanes occidentales: la democratización y el Estado de derecho. En el caso de Montenegro, el avance en las negociaciones no impide formas de involución, a pesar de llevar la delantera en la carrera por la integración. Así, el 20 de septiembre de 2023 el Parlamento Europeo hacía público un informe adoptado por el Comité de Asuntos Exteriores donde requería de Podgorica: «la urgente necesidad de estabilidad política, un progreso sustancial en las reformas para la UE, en particular reformas electorales y judiciales y la lucha contra el crimen organizado y la corrupción». El documento de los expertos pide disciplinar a los gobiernos de los países candidatos para que respeten el Estado de derecho y los valores de la UE, si quieren obtener financiación. De momento, la propuesta franco-alemana no es la única y ya ha recibido alguna mención crítica, por ejemplo desde Irlanda. Serán necesarias intensas discusiones para llegar a un consenso.En cualquier caso, la experiencia aprendida durante estos años de parálisis de la ampliación muestra que la preparación de los candidatos y la adecuación de la UE al nuevo reto de la ampliación deberían ser procesos compatibles. Es un enfoque imprescindible para garantizar el cumplimiento del último y olvidado requisito de los llamados criterios de Copenhague para toda ampliación (establecidos por el Consejo Europeo en 1993): preservar «la capacidad de la Unión de absorber nuevos miembros, sin dejar de mantener el impulso de la integración europea». La obligación de los países miembros y candidatos es que este proceso sea creíble. Los países de los Balcanes occidentales como eternos aspirantes Desde el inicio de la guerra en Ucrania, ha habido un replanteamiento de la relación de la UE con los Balcanes occidentales, y la política de ampliación forma parte de una nueva estrategia de seguridad. Bruselas, pero también Washington, quieren estabilizar la región y evitar conflictos y conatos de violencia que obliguen a desviar el foco de los esfuerzos políticos y militares que se están realizando en el frente ucraniano. No obstante, los Balcanes occidentales se han convertido en un laberinto político, donde todavía están por resolverse muchos escenarios complejos.Macedonia del Norte debe de aprobar por mayoría de dos tercios de su Asamblea Nacional la inclusión en el texto constitucional de la minoría búlgara para no sufrir nuevamente el veto de Bulgaria en la apertura de negociaciones con la UE. Después de la difícil negociación para resolver el veto griego, y las últimas exigencias búlgaras han convertido el largo proceso de adhesión en un recorrido humillante para la sociedad local macedonia. Los socialdemócratas, en el poder, presentan una escasa mayoría parlamentaria, y tienen que ratificar el cambio antes de noviembre. La Comisión Europea ha venido abrazando durante la última década con múltiples visitas diplomáticas ambas modificaciones, pero más allá de los vetos, el país necesita de un impulso renovado que alimente sus expectativas de integración europea, pero también demanda de incentivos para las reformas que exige el proceso de adhesión. La concesión a Skopje de la recomendación para ser capital europea de la cultura en 2028 es una de las noticias positivas de las últimas fechas.Por su parte, Bosnia y Herzegovina representa uno de los desafíos más ambiciosos de la ampliación. Los Acuerdos de Dayton (1995) constituyeron las bases de un sistema etnocrático donde el nacionalismo serbio y croata fracturan la soberanía bosnia a través del sistema de vetos. El líder serbobosnio Milorad Dodik, con una agenda prorrusa y secesionista, se encuentra auspiciado por la asistencia política y económica del presidente húngaro Viktor Órban. Hace unos días, el líder serbobosnio amenazaba con dictar una resolución para expulsar al Alto Representante para Bosnia y Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, en el caso de que entrara en territorio de la República Srpska. Las autoridades serbobosnias han planteado recientemente aprobar una ley que impondrá una estricta supervisión sobre el trabajo de las organizaciones no gubernamentales y obligará a quienes reciban fondos foráneos a registrarse como «agentes extranjeros», decisión que la UE y los Estados Unidos consideran inaceptable. Durante la última etapa, los vínculos de Dodik se han estrechado no sólo con Rusia (mediante sucesivas visitas diplomáticas a Moscú) y China (peticiones de financiación), sino también con el líder bosniocroata Dragan Čović, quien a través de su partido, el HDZ, ha sugerido la formación de una tercera entidad de mayoría croata, junto a la Federación de Bosnia y Herzegovina (de mayoría bosnia) y de la República Srpska (de mayoría serbia). De fondo, se manifiesta la idea de debilitar la centralización del poder político en Sarajevo para fortalecer la representación étnica aglutinada en torno a los partidos nacionalistas serbio (SNSD) y croata (HDZ) que dominan la agenda política del país, posición enfrentada con el nacionalismo bosníaco del SDA. Zagreb persigue asentar su influencia sobre Bosnia y Herzegovina a través de su papel de garante de la representación de los bosniocroatas en las instituciones bosnias. Una política, en cualquier caso, que agudiza la fragmentación y que es contraría a las sentencias de Tribunal de Derechos Humanos de Estrasburgo («Finci y Sejdić» o «Kovačević»)4. Mientras tanto, el país todavía no está cerca de cumplir con las 14 prioridades enumeradas en la Comunicación de la Comisión Europea sobre la solicitud de adhesión de Bosnia y Herzegovina a la UE del 29 de mayo de 2019.Las negociaciones Belgrado-Pristina viven sus peores momentos desde la declaración unilateral de independencia de Kosovo. En noviembre de 2022, las autoridades serbo-kosovares dimitieron de sus puestos de trabajo. Y se rompieron los puentes entre la población serbia que vive en Kosovo y Pristina. Los electores locales boicotearon las elecciones municipales del norte de Kosovo el 23 de abril de 2023 y solo concurrieron un 4% de los electores, lo que llevó a unos resultados ilegítimos y a la victoria de cuatro alcaldes albaneses en las municipalidades de mayoría serbia. La toma de los cargos de los alcaldes apoyada por Pristina desató una fuerte movilización de la población serbia local, entre la cual había elementos del crimen organizado, produciéndose graves disturbios. Las fuerzas de la OTAN en Kosovo (KFOR) tuvieron que actuar para proteger los edificios públicos y a las autoridades, y fueron heridos decenas de soldados. Ello muestra que la organización atlántica sigue siendo fundamental para garantizar la paz en la zona. En un giro sin precedentes, las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Kosovo pasan por una crisis de confianza por dos razones principales. Primero, el Gobierno de Pristina desde 2021 lleva aplicando una política de reciprocidad con Serbia con acciones no coordinadas con sus aliados occidentales; y, segundo, tanto Washington como Bruselas han vislumbrado una estrategia de acercamiento a Belgrado con la idea de reducir la influencia rusa sobre el nacionalismo serbio, que sigue atesorando una fuerte capacidad de desestabilización regional. El objetivo principal es integrar la zona en un espacio de seguridad europeo y blindarla de cualquier contagio derivado de la invasión rusa a Ucrania. ConclusionesEn 1983, las adhesiones de Portugal y España a la Comunidad Económica Europea (CEE) se demoraron para determinar los modos de financiación de la Política Agrícola Común (PAC). La Comisión Europea, a principios de la década de 1990, retrasó las conversaciones de adhesión con Austria, Finlandia y Suecia hasta que se aprobara la legislación para establecer el mercado único europeo. La práctica de llevar a cabo una reestructuración antes de una ampliación no es ajena a la UE, y tiene que ver con la consolidación institucional en una fase de movimientos políticos tectónicos. «Está claro que la ampliación y la reforma de la UE van de la mano. Y tenemos que empezar con esto ahora», dijo la ministra alemana de Asuntos Europeos, Anna Lührmann en septiembre de 2023.La reunión informal de los jefes de Estado y de Gobierno, del 5 y 6 de octubre de 2023 en Granada, bajo la presidencia española de la UE, estuvo marcada por la voluntad de garantizar la seguridad colectiva, profundizar en la interconexión y potenciar la soberanía europea, pero también fue una llamada a los estados candidatos para que se preparen «ante la perspectiva de la futura ampliación» y para que fomenten «los valores en los que se fundamenta la UE». Para abordar los nuevos desafíos, la UE debe apostar por una política cohesionada por parte de los estados miembros, pero también por un modelo que no obligue a la unanimidad para la unidad de acción. La UE adquirió un compromiso con los Balcanes occidentales hace dos décadas y, con la excepción de la deriva en Serbia de los últimos años, las sociedades balcánicas son eminentemente proeuropeas. Por eso, no se trata sólo de una concesión política y económica, sino de que la ampliación también es un mecanismo de seguridad y de proyección de futuro para la UE. Referencias bibliográficas Bechev, Dimitar. Rival Power: Russia's influence in Southeast Europe. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2017.Kmezić, Marko y Bieber, Florian «The Crisis of Democracy in the Western Balkans. An Anatomy of Stabilitocracy and the Limits of EU Democracy Promotion». Policy Study (marzo de 2017). Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group.Knaus, Gerald y Bender, Kristof. «Elephants in Skopje – Balkan turtle race and Ukraine». ESI Newsletter, n.º 6 (julio de 2022). European Stability Iniciative.Lavrič, Lavrin y Bieber, Florian. «Shifts in Support for Authoritarianism and Democracy in the Western Balkans». Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 68, n.º 1 (2020). Notas:1- Este viraje es significativo, teniendo en cuenta que él mismo, en octubre de 2019, había bloqueado el inicio de las negociaciones para la integración de Albania y Macedonia del Norte.2- Western Balkans (WB): Serbia, Bosnia y Herzegovina, Macedonia del Norte, Montenegro, Albania y Kosovo.3- A excepción de Kosovo, que sólo es potencial candidato y aún no es reconocido por cinco estados miembros.4- La Constitución de Bosnia y Herzegovina solo reconoce a bosnios, serbios y croatas el derecho a ser elegidos para cargos políticos, y no en ambas entidades (República Srpska y Federación de Bosnia y Herzegovina). En Bosnia y Herzegovina solo un serbio de la entidad República Srpska puede ser elegido para la Presidencia de Bosnia y Herzegovina, y únicamente con los votos de esa entidad. La misma situación se aplica a la otra entidad (Federación de Bosnia y Herzegovina), donde solo los croatas y los bosnios pueden ser elegidos para la Presidencia de Bosnia y Herzegovina. El Tribunal Europeo de Estrasburgo en sucesivas ocasiones ha dictaminado que este sistema viola los derechos humanos.DOI: https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2023/295/es

Euroopan unioni ja sen jäsenvaltiot ovat tuoneet viime vuosina toistuvasti esiin, että eurooppalainen tiedepolitiikka on yhteydessä taloudelliseen kasvuun. Eurooppalaisten kansallisvaltioiden intressissä onkin nykyään noudattaa sellaisia tiedepoliittisia malleja ja käytäntöjä, jotka edesauttavat niiden taloudellista kasvua ja kukoistusta. Tässä kehityksessä erityisen kiinnostavaa on, että valtiot ympäri Eurooppaa ovat omaksuneet keskenään samankaltaisia tiedepoliittisia ajatusmalleja, käytäntöjä ja politiikkoja, vaikka niiden taloudelliset tilanteet ja rakenteet ovat erilaisia. Kyseessä on maailmanlaajuinen trendi. Tiede ja tieto ovat lukuisten Euroopan unionin strategioiden ytimessä ja niillä nähdään olevat erityinen rooli eurooppalaisen menestyksen ja kilpailukyvyn kehityksessä. Euroopan unioni yhtyy siis globaaleihin tiedepoliittisiin diskursseihin ja siirtyy muualla aiemmin käyttöönotettuihin malleihin, vaikka EU on omanlaisensa verrattuna muihin maanosiin ja poliittisiin liittoutumiin. Eurooppalaista tiedepolitiikkaa koskeva usein rationaalisiin selitysmalleihin pohjautuva tutkimus ei pysty täysin selittämään tätä ilmiötä. Ensinnä funktionaaliset selitysmallit eivät kykene selittämään yhdenmukaista ja samanaikaista eurooppalaista poliittisten diskurssien ja valintojen kehitystä. Taloudelliselta rakenteeltaan ja kooltaan erilaiset yhteiskunnat kohtaavat erilaisia haasteita. Jos poliittiset valinnat vastaisivat yhteiskuntien yksilöllisiä tarpeita, olisi todennäköistä, että ratkaisut, mieltymykset ja toimenpiteet eroaisivat toisistaan. Toisaalta rationaaliset selitysmallit, jotka lähtevät siitä oletuksesta, että valtiot tekevät laskelmoituja valintoja kansallisten intressiensä pohjalta, eivät perustu todellisuuteen. Jos perustuisivat, kansalliset toimijat noudattaisivat työssään niitä päätöksiä, joita heidän päätöksentekijänsä ovat kansallisten intressien pohjalta tehneet. Käytännössä kuitenkin yksi merkittävimmistä eurooppalaisen tiedepolitiikan tavoitteista eli tutkimusrahoituksen yhdentyminen, jota Euroopan jäsenvaltioiden valtionpäämiehet ovat ajaneet yhdessä 2000-luvun alusta asti, ei ole toteutunut. Kansalliset tutkimuksen rahoittajat eivät siis ole toteuttaneet niitä tavoitteita, jotka heidän omat päätöksentekijänsä ovat eurooppalaisella tasolla asettaneet. Näin ollen näkemys huolellisen laskelmoinnin pohjalta tehdystä kansallisiin intresseihin perustuvasta suoraviivaisesti täytäntöönpanoon etenevästä päätöksenteosta voidaan kyseenalaistaa. Rationalistinen selitysmalli ennustaa, että kokemus aiemmista toimenpiteistä ohjaa päätöksiä tulevaisuudessa. Kun yhteiseurooppalainen tutkimusrahoitus on jäänyt vähäiseksi, myös sen mukanaan tuoma ennakoitu taloudellinen hyöty on jäänyt toteutumatta. Tästä huolimatta Euroopan jäsenvaltioiden halukkuus ottaa osaa tiedepoliittisiin yhteistyömuotoihin ei ole vähentynyt. Tämä havainto osoittaa, että rationaalinen, materiaalisiin ja taloudellisiin hyötyihin keskittyvä laskelmointi ei täysin selitä kansallisten osapuolten halukkuutta osallistua eurooppalaiseen tutkimusrahoitusyhteistyöhön. Koska tiedepoliittinen yhteistyö perustuu vapaaehtoisuuteen, eikä Euroopan unionilla ole välineitä pakottaa jäsenvaltioitaan toimimaan yhdenmukaisin tavoin, ei ilmiötä voida selittää pakolla. Tarvitaan siis uudenlaisia tapoja ymmärtää, miksi jäsenvaltiot käyttävät politiikoissaan yhdenmukaisia tiedepoliittisia diskursseja, ja miksi kansalliset toimijat ottavat niin innokkaasti osaa eurooppalaiseen tutkimusrahoitusyhteistyöhön sen epäonnistumisista huolimatta. Tässä väitöskirjassa näihin mysteereihin esitetään kulttuurisosiologiseen näkökulmaan pohjautuva selitys. Kansallisvaltiot, kansalliset poliittiset toimijat ja tutkimusrahoituksen toimihenkilöt nähdään kulttuurisia käsikirjoituksia noudattavina toimijoina, jotka sulautuvat sekä heitä ympäröiviin että heidät rakentaviin sosiaalisiin rakenteisiin. Tämä ymmärrys, josta osa on globaalisti jaettua maailmankulttuuria, sekä rajoittaa että mahdollistaa heidän toimintansa. Se tarjoaa heille joukon tärkeitä institutionaalisia sääntöjä, käsikirjoituksia ja periaatteita, joita heidän tulee noudattaa saavuttaakseen ja säilyttääkseen oma yhteiskunnallinen asemansa. Käsikirjoitusten olemassaolo auttaa selittämään, miksi poliittiset mallit, ideat ja diskurssit leviävät tuottaen ylikansallista yhdenmukaisuutta, kun rationaaliset selitysmallit eivät siihen kykene. Sosiaalisesti jaettujen käyttäytymismallien ja käsikirjoitusten esiintuominen on tyypillistä erityisesti maailmanyhteiskunnantutkijoille ja sosiologiseen institutionalismiin perustuvalle tutkimukselle. Tämäkin tutkimus pohjautuu näihin perinteisiin, mutta esittää niihin täsmennyksen tuottamalla entistä tarkempaa tietoa siitä, miten paikalliset toimijat motivoivat toimintansa itselleen ja muille. Tutkimus vastaa kysymykseen analysoimalla, miten kansalliset toimitsijat identifioivat itsensä ja miten heidän tekemänsä identiteettityö tarjoaa tarkemman selityksen prosessille, joka maailmanyhteiskunnantutkimuksen makroperspektiivistä näyttää mukautumiselta. Tutkimuksen tuottamien tulosten valossa tarkoituksettomalta näyttäytyvä mukautuminen eli konformismi onkin itse asiassa identiteettikategorioihin yhteydessä olevaa päämäärätietoista, intresseihin perustuvaa toimintaa. Samalla tutkimuksessa osoitetaan, miten paikallisten toimijoiden identiteettityö mahdollistaa globalisaation, ideoiden ylikansallisen leviämisen ja paikallisten politiikkojen harmonisaation. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään glokalisaation teemaa tähdentäen sitä, miten globaali ja lokaali kietoutuvat toisiinsa. Tutkimuksessa etsitään vastauksia kolmeen kysymykseen: 1) miksi globaali politiikan kieli tulee kotoutetuksi, omaksutuksi ja kehitetyksi paikallisella tasolla, ja mikä on identiteettityön rooli tässä prosessissa, 2) mikä on identiteettityön rooli kansallisten toimijoiden eurooppalaisessa tiedepoliittisessa yhteistyössä ja etenkin sen toteuttamisessa, ja 3) kuinka identiteettityö muokkaa globaaleja politiikan virtauksia ja johtaa siihen, etteivät päätökset johda aina vastaaviin toimenpiteisiin (ns. irtikytkeminen, "decoupling"). Näiden kysymysten empiirinen tutkimus alkaa tietotalousdiskurssin ja tietoyhteiskuntakäsitteen paikallisen käytön analyysilla. Analyysin avulla havainnollistetaan, miten näitä globaaleja ja eurooppalaista tiedepolitiikkaa 1990-luvun puolivälistä hallinneita ajatusmalleja käytetään rakentamaan oikeanlaista yhteiskunnallista toimijuutta Suomessa. Toiseksi tutkimuksessa tuotetaan analyyttinen luokittelu identiteettikategorioista, joita tutkimusrahoittajien edustajat käyttävät työskennellessään ERA-NET:eissa (ERA-NET on EU:n ERA-politiikkaan liittyvä tutkimusrahoittajien yhteistyö- ja rahoitusmuoto). Samalla tutkimuksessa analysoidaan kyseisiin identiteettiluokkiin liittyvät intressit ja esitetään, keitä nämä toimijat edustavat ja mitkä ovat heidän motivaationsa ottaa osaa eurooppalaiseen tiedepoliittiseen yhteistyöhön. Näiden kahden empiirisen analyysin avulla vastataan lopulta kysymykseen, miten on mahdollista, että ERA-NET-yhteistyö jatkuu, vaikka se ei ole saavuttanut eurooppalaisia tavoitteitaan. Kolmanneksi työssä käsitellään empiirisesti sitä, miten identiteettityö näkyy tutkimusrahoituksen ammattilaisten kuvauksissa omasta työstään ja miten se vaikuttaa yhteiseurooppalaisten tutkimusrahoituskäytäntöjen muotoutumiseen ERA-NET:eissa. Tutkimuksessa käytetyt laadulliset tutkimusmenetelmät pohjautuvat erityisesti diskursiiviseen institutionalismiin ja sosiaaliseen identiteettiteoriaan. Diskursiivisen institutionalismin näkökulmasta tutkitaan kansallisten toimijoiden motiiveja käyttää maailmanlaajuisesti leviäviä ideoita, diskursseja ja muoti-ilmauksia. Lisäksi tarkastellaan, miten kansalliset toimijat hyötyvät heitä rakentavien, heidän toimintansa mahdollistavien ja sitä ohjaavien sosiaalisten ja institutionaalisten käsikirjoitusten käyttämisestä. Työssä tutkitaan sekä diskurssien sisältöä että niihin liittyvää interaktiivista toimintaa. Näin ollen tuodaan esiin institutionaalisen toiminnan kaksi eri puolta: tavat, joilla toimijat uudelleentuottavat ja ylläpitävät instituutioita hyödyntäen "taka-alan käsitteellisiä kykyjään" sekä tavat, joilla he kykenevät muuttamaan näitä instituutioita käyttämällä "etualan institutionaalisia kykyjään". Samalla avataan mahdollisuus tutkia globalisaation toimijatasoa, etenkin paikallisen ja maailmanlaajuisen vuorovaikutuksen prosessia, joka muokkaa globalisaatiota sen edetessä. Sosiaalisen identiteettiteorian pohjalta keskitytään puolestaan toimijoiden sosiaalisiin identiteettikategorioihin: keitä toimijat ovat ja mikä on heille järkeenkäypää eri tilanteissa. Kategoriat informoivat toimijoita käytettävissä olevista diskursseista ja siitä, miten ne rajaavat heidän toimintamahdollisuuksiaan. Lisäksi kategoriat tuovat mukanaan käsityksen jaetusta minuudesta, minkä vuoksi niihin viitataan muodossa "me" sen sijaan, että puhuttaisiin "minästä". Identiteettien muodostamista tutkimusrahoittajien edustajien työssä tutkitaan lingvistisen analyysin keinoin, etenkin kiinnittämällä huomiota siihen, miten he käyttävät puheessaan persoonapronomineja. Luokat "me" ja "he" tuovat esiin, miten he rakentavat itsensä ja identiteettinsä suhteessa ympäröivään sosiaaliseen rakenteeseen: mitä identiteetit ovat, mitä eurooppalaiseen tutkimusrahoitusyhteistyöhön liittyviä intressejä niihin sisältyy ja missä kontekstissa identiteettejä käytetään ja vaihdetaan. Lisäksi työssä tutkitaan retorisen, narratiivisen ja diskurssianalyysin keinoin, mitä toimijat tekevät käyttäessään ja rakentaessaan tiettyjä identiteettejä tietyissä konteksteissa. Menetelmiä käytetään siis analysoitaessa ERA-NET-toimijoiden puhetta, mutta erityisen keskeisessä asemassa ne ovat analysoitaessa politiikkadokumentteja. Esimerkiksi julkishallinnossa käytetyn tietotalousdiskurssin paikantamiseksi käytetään hyväksi sen erityispiirteitä kuten siihen sisältyviä käsitteitä. Kun diskurssi on paikannettu, käytetään narratiivisen ja retorisen analyysin keinoja sen tutkimiseksi, miten ja mitä varten diskurssia käytetään. Tutkimuksen aineisto koostuu politiikkadokumenteista ja haastatteluista. Dokumenttiaineisto koostuu kolmesta osiosta: 1) tietotaloutta sekä tieto- ja informaatioyhteiskuntaa käsittelevistä Euroopan unionin, OECD:n, G8:n ja Suomen valtionhallinnon julkisista asiakirjoista ajanjaksolla 1995–2005, 2) suomalaisten ministeriöiden vuosien 2006 ja 2010 tulevaisuuskatsauksista, joissa ministeriöt esittävät toimialansa keskeisimmät lyhyen ja keskipitkän aikavälin haasteet ja toimintavaihtoehdot, ja 3) kolmen ERA-NET:in sisäisestä dokumentoinnista koskien niiden yhteiseurooppalaisia rahoitushakuja 2000-luvun jälkimmäisellä puoliskolla. Toinen aineiston osa koostuu eri maiden ja eri ERA-NET:tien edustajien haastatteluista. Haastateltavat henkilöt edustavat tutkimusohjelmien omistajia – tyypillisesti ministeriöitä tai alueellisia viranomaisia, jotka avaavat tutkimusohjelmia – sekä tutkimusohjelmien hallinnoijia kuten tutkimusneuvostoja ja muita tutkimusta rahoittavia virastoja. Tutkimukseen haastateltiin vuosina 2009– 2012 kahtakymmentä ERA-NET-edustajaa kahdeksasta maasta, yhdestätoista organisaatiosta ja kymmenestä ERA-NET:istä. Haastattelut rakentuivat temaattisesti ERA-NET:tejä, niissä työskentelyä sekä eurooppalaista ja kansainvälistä tutkimusrahoitusjärjestelmää koskevien kysymysten ympärille. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että paikalliset toimijat käyttävät ja muokkaavat maailmanlaajuista, globaalia politiikan kieltä, koska se tarjoaa hyödyllisiä välineitä toimijan omaan identiteettityöhön. Esimerkiksi käsite "tietoyhteiskunta", joka on osa tietotalousdiskurssia, tarjoaa suomalaisille ministeriöille sosiaalisesti vakuuttavan mutta joustavan työkalun, jolla ne kykenevät uudistamaan omaa poliittista ja yhteiskunnallista asemaansa Suomessa. Käsitteen ylikansallinen tunnettuus tuo sille sosiaalista vakuuttavuutta, jolloin siitä muodostuu resurssi, jota ministeriöt pystyvät käyttämään hyväkseen rakentaessaan ja kommunikoidessaan omaa kansallista ja yhteiskunnallista tärkeyttään. Lisäksi tutkimus osoittaa, että tutkimusrahoitusorganisaatiot käyttävät eurooppalaista tiedepoliittista yhteistyötä välineenä oman identiteettinsä rakennusprosessissa. Tutkimuksen mukaan identiteettityö selittää myös osaltaan, miksi ERA-NET-yhteistyö voi jatkua, vaikka se ei ole saavuttanut tiettyjä materiaalisia päätavoitteitaan. Nykytoimijoiden tulee kyetä esittämään itsensä rationaalisina, kehittyneinä ja kansainvälisinä pelaajina ja ERA-NET:it ovat hyödyllisiä keinoja tämän tavoitteen toteuttamisessa. Osallistuminen trendikkäimpiin, vakuuttavimpiin ja poliittisesti tuettuihin kansainvälisen yhteistyön muotoihin on merkki siitä, että toimija on kansainvälinen ja rationaalinen. Osallistuminen on näin ollen itsessään sosiaalisesti palkitsevaa. Tutkimuksessa osoitetaan, että toimijoiden jatkuva identiteettityö muokkaa politiikkatoimenpiteiden leviämistä niin, että se tuottaa paikallista harmonisaatiota täydellisen yhdenmukaistumisen sijaan. Identiteettityö siis muokkaa prosessia, jolla maailmanlaajuiset ideat saavat paikallisen muotonsa ja ohjaa muutosta kohti glokalisaatiota. Identiteettityö ja useiden identiteettikategorioiden samanaikainen käyttäminen mahdollistaa, että toimijat käyttävät yhtäaikaisesti useita institutionaalisia resurssilähteitä rakentaen niistä luovasti uudenlaisia ymmärryksiä. Esimerkiksi edustajien mahdollisuus vaihtaa maailmanlaajuisesta identiteetistä paikalliseen ja takaisin mahdollistaa sen, että he tulkitsevat globaaleja ideoita paikallisesta näkökulmasta ja venyttävät niihin sisältyviä periaatteita niin, että ne sopivat yhteen paikallisten realiteettien kanssa. Näin ollen he luovat globaaleista malleista glokaaleja todellisuuksia. Nämä todellisuudet sisältävät sekä globaaleja että paikallisia elementtejä, minkä vuoksi identiteettityö johtaa melko samanaikaiseen globaalien ideoiden leviämisprosessiin kuitenkin niin, että paikalliset lopputulokset eroavat jonkin verran toisistaan. Identiteettityö myös mahdollistaa tavoitteiden ja toimenpiteiden irtikytkemisen. Sen ansiosta toimijoilla on mahdollisuus noudattaa useita institutionaalisia sääntöjä samaan aikaan. Tämä institutionaalisten identiteettien repertuaari ja niiden luova käyttö saattaa johtaa yhtäältä hankaluuksiin, mutta toisaalta myös mahdollistaa pakenemisen vaikeista tilanteista sosiaalisesti hyväksytyillä tavoilla. Kun tietyt institutionaaliset vaatimukset käyvät liian hankaliksi toteuttaa, edustajat pystyvät ottamaan käyttöön toisen identiteettikategorian ja hyödyntämään siihen sisältyviä sääntöjä sosiaalisesti hyväksyttynä keinona tilanteen kiertämiseksi. Tämä tulos avaa uuden, aktiivista intressipohjaista toimijuutta korostavan näkökulman tilanteisiin, joissa päätökset ja toimenpiteet eivät vastaa toisiaan. Tästä näkökulmasta käsin toiminnan irtikytkentä ei ole niinkään irtisanoutumista tietyn normin mukaisen käytännön toteuttamisesta vaan tilannekohtaista vaihtamista toisiin normeihin, jotka ovat yhtä lailla sosiaalisesti hyväksyttyjä, perusteltuja ja tärkeitä. Yhdessä tutkimuksen tulokset havainnollistavat, miten kansallinen ja eurooppalainen poliittinen toiminta saavat läheisesti vaikutteita maailmanlaajuisesti leviävistä ja ajallisesti muuttuvista ideoista ja käsikirjoituksista. Koska näin on, poliittisten päättäjien ja toimijoiden toimia ja perusteita ei voida täysin ymmärtää ottamatta tätä kulttuurisesti rakentunutta ulottuvuutta huomioon. Kansainvälisen poliittisen toiminnan tutkimuksen täytyykin kiinnittää entistä tarkemmin huomiota omiin analyyttisiin kansallista ja globaalia käsitteleviin kategorioihinsa. Jos tutkija itsestään selvästi olettaa, että valtiot ovat tärkeimpiä kansallisen ja kansainvälisen säätelyn ja hallinnan toimijoita, hän saattaa jättää huomaamatta laajemmat rakenteet, jotka rakentavat kyseiset kansallisvaltiot ja kansalliset mieltymykset, ohjaten siten kansallista hallintaa. Toisaalta tutkija, joka keskittyy pelkästään ylikansallisiin rakenteisiin, saattaa tulla siihen hätiköityyn johtopäätökseen, että kansallisvaltio olisi katoamassa tai että se ei ole kansainvälisen yhteistyön tai hallinnan merkittävä toimija. Tässä väitöskirjatyössä kehitetty väite sijoittuu näiden kahden ääripään väliin. Sen metodologinen kanta on, että on mahdollista – ja itse asiassa analyyttisesti kaikkein hedelmällisintä – ymmärtää kansallisvaltiot poliittisesti erillisinä, mutta samalla maailmanlaajuisina rakenteina. Tutkimuksen väite on, että globalisaatio ei vain tapahdu – ihmiset institutionaalisina toimijoina tuottavat sen. Kansainvälisesti toimivina, ylikansallisesti rakentuneina organisaatioiden ja professioiden edustajina nämä aktiiviset toimijat ovat saaneet osakseen tehtäviä ja vastuita, joissa heillä on mahdollisuus luoda, omaksua, ottaa käyttöön, muokata ja levittää maailmankulttuurisia käsikirjoituksia. Nimenomaan tämä globaalin ja lokaalin välimaastoon sijoittuva toiminta tuottaa kansallisten politiikkojen synkronisaatiota, ja sitä myöten sitä, mikä ymmärretään globalisaatioksi. Muutos ei välttämättä ole sataprosenttisen yhdenmukainen, mutta ajallisesti yhteneväinen ja huomattava. Tämä muutos tulee ja menee aaltomaisina trendeinä – yksi pyyhkäisee läpi maailman heiketäkseen hiljalleen, minkä jälkeen tulee toinen kulkeakseen ylikansallisen matkansa ja niin edelleen. Synkronisesti jatkuvasti liikkeessä olevat ja muuttuvat valtioiden politiikat muodostavat yhdessä merkille pantavan yksikön, joka muodostuu yhteydessä olevista mutta silti erillisistä toimijoista. ; The European Union and its member states have articulated a close link between the development of Euro¬pean science policy and national economic growth. It is indeed in the manifest interest of European nation-states to implement science-policy models and practices that help their domestic economies grow and prosper. In this connection, it is interesting, however, that separate nation states, regardless of the evident economic differences between them, have ended up adopting similar science-policy practices, ideas, and policies. In addition, this is true beyond intra European Union level. Strong science and knowledge lie at the heart of several key strategies of the union and are thought of as contributing specifically to Europe's economic prosperity and competitiveness. Yet the European Union seems to fall in line with discourses and models that are globally shared and have already been implemented elsewhere, despite Europe's substantial differences from other continents and political alliances. Existing European science-policy literature, based on rationally oriented explanatory models, is not able to explain this phenomenon fully. Firstly, the concordant and concomitant policy discourses used and choices made throughout Europe cannot be explained by functional arguments. Differently structured economies and those of different sizes are likely to differ in the challenges they face, and if policy choices were based on their respective needs, the similarities currently discernible among nation-states in their decisions, preferences, and actions would be unlikely. Secondly, rational arguments based on an assumption that calculative action stems from national interests have an uphill battle vis-à-vis the reality. If they were valid, careful decisions made by national actors would be followed by consequent actions. In reality, contrastingly, one of the ultimate goals for cooperative European research-policy activities, Europe-wide integration of research funding, which has been strongly endorsed by the European heads of state since 2000, has not materialized: national actors in charge of research funding have not reached the goals their own chief public representatives have set. Hence, one may question whether the decision was carefully planned beforehand and attention then redirected to execution. Furthermore, the aforementioned rationalist argument would predict that experience from earlier actions would steer later decisions. While the failure of European integration of research funding is abundantly apparent, meaning that, for instance, financial gains through common research funding have not been achieved, nation-states' enthusiasm to participate in European research-policy activities has not declined accordingly. This finding indicates that rational calculation cannot explain why national actors are keen to take part in common research-funding initiatives. It points instead to there being other motivations for the national agents' participation in European research-funding activities than executing carefully calculated decisions and pursuing nationally relevant financial and material goals. Also, because nation-states' participation in this policy field is based on voluntary activity, and coercive power imposed from the direction of the European Union towards its member states hence cannot explain the uniformity of national behavior with respect to science policy either, there is an obvious need for a new, more pertinent explanation to the puzzle of why the Member States apply a uniform science-policy discourse and national actors are so keen on taking part in European research-funding activities despite some of the main political, European objectives not being reached. The dissertation presents a sociologically and culturally oriented viewpoint for explaining the aforementioned mysteries. Nation-states, national policy actors, and national research-policy agents are understood as culturally scripted actors embedded in social structures surrounding and constructing them. This cultural understanding, some of which is globally shared and creates a world culture, both constrains and enables these actors, and it supplies them with more and less profound institutional rules, scripts, and principles, which they need to follow in order to gain and maintain their socially admitted positions. The existence of this kind of behavior pattern – highlighted by world society scholars and based on the school of sociological institutionalism – is able to explain why common policy models, ideas, and discourses spread and yield conformity across the field of nation-states when rationalistic explanations fail. The dissertation goes further, introducing a contribution to world society theory by specifying in more detail how local policy actors position themselves and motivate their endeavors for themselves as well as others. For such a purpose, in-depth analysis is devoted to how national actors bearing agency on behalf of a nation-state identify themselves and how such identifications and identity work demystify what may seem conformism but is, in fact, best explained as pursuit of interests as long as these agents' identity categories are taken into account. What may from a bird's-eye view seem to be mindless conformism is really articulation of different interests, attached to multiple identity categories. Therefore, the work examines how identity work makes globalization, trans¬national spreading of ideas, and the synchronization of local policy choices possible. In the course of this analysis, it addresses the theme of glocalization, signifying that the global and the local are intertwined. Answers are sought for three questions: Why does global policy language become domesticated, adopted, and cultivated on local level, and what is the role of identity work in the process; what is the role of identity work in facilitating European science-policy cooperation among national agents; and how does identity work shape the form of global policy diffusion and enable decoupling? To investigate these questions empirically, firstly the local use of the knowledge-based economy discourse and the term "information society" are analyzed. Consequently, attention is turned to how these global key ideas framing European science policy since the mid-1990s are utilized in the process of creating "proper" national actorhood in Finland. Secondly an analytical classification of the identity categories used by research-funding professionals working in ERA-NETs (ERA-related research-funding instruments) is constructed, and the indicated interests attached to each identity category are analyzed for purposes of disentangling who the agents represent and what their motivations are for participating in European research-policy cooperation. Then, informed by these two steps, an empirical answer is formulated as to how it is possible that the ERA-NET cooperation continues even though it does not lead to meeting of its pan-European objectives. Thirdly, the work empirically examines how identity work is manifested in research-funding professionals' description of their work and how it affects the process of formation of actual co-European research-funding practices in ERA-NETs. The dissertation concentrates on local agentic actors' motivations, rationales, and social realities, alongside linguistic and behavioral strategies that contribute to policy harmonization and lead to worldwide spreading of ideas and concepts. For these purposes, qualitative analysis methods have been used, with discursive institutionalism and social identity theory drawn on especially. From the standpoint of discursive institutionalism, national agents' motives for using globally spreading ideas, discourses, and catchwords are studied, as are ways in which they benefit from these and from the underlying social and institutional scripts that construct, enable, and steer towards such behavior. In the process, both the substantive content of the discourses and the interactive process involved are studied, for bringing out two sides of institutional behavior: the ways in which agents re-create and maintain institutions by means of their "background ideational abilities" and ways in which they are able to change those institutions by using the "foreground institutional abilities." At the same time, the actor level of globalization is opened for analysis, especially the process of local–global interaction that shapes the globalization process as it proceeds. Concurrently, agents' social identity categories – who they are and what makes sense to them in various situations – are examined. These categories inform the agents about the discourses they take part in, which restrict their choices as they are used. Furthermore, these identifications reflect shared conceptions of a collective self and therefore make such identities about "we" more than "I." This identity-building in research funders' work is examined mainly via methodological tools provided by linguistic analysis, especially in relation to the ways they use personal pronouns in their speech. The categories "we" and "they" shed light on how these agents construct themselves and their identities within a social structure they experience around them, what those identities are exactly, what interests are attached to them in regard to the European research-funding cooperation, and in which context these identities are used and switched. In addition, employing multiple measurement techniques, from rhetorical, narrative, and discourse analysis, illuminates what is done through actions such as using, or constructing, a particular identity in a certain context. These techniques are presented throughout the dissertation in the analysis of ERA-NET agents' talk, but their particular importance is highlighted in the context of policy documents. For example, to situate a particular discourse, such as that of the knowledge-based economy, some of its distinctive characteristics (especially concepts it encompasses) are used, to locate its use. After the discourse is identified and located in text, narrative and rhetorical analysis are applied, allowing one to say more about how and for what purposes it is used. The dataset for the research consists of policy documents and interviews. The document form data consist of the European Union, OECD, G8, and Finnish public policy documents from 1995–2005 dealing with the knowledge-based economy and the knowledge and information society; the Finnish government ministries' "future reviews" from 2006 and 2010 (in which they describe the most central short- and mid-term challenges and action alternatives in their respective policy fields); and internal documentation of three distinct ERA-NETs that were active in the latter half of the previous decade, pertaining to their research-funding calls and how they were conducted. The other part of the dataset consists of interviews with ERA-NET agents in several countries and ERA-NETs. The participants interviewed were individuals representing research program owners – typically ministries or regional authorities defining research programs – or program managers such as research councils or other research-funding agencies managing research programs. In total, 20 ERA-NET agents, from eight nation-states, 11 distinct organizations, and 10 individual ERA-NETs, were interviewed, in 2009–2012. The interviews were constructed around thematic questions all having to do with the ERA-NET, European, international funding system and working in ERA-NETs. The results of the research show that global policy language is embodied in adoption and adaptation at local level because it serves as a useful instrument in the actors' identity work. For instance, the "information society" concept, which is part of the knowledge-based economy discourse, provides Finnish ministries with a socially convincing yet flexible affordance to reaffirmation of their social and political importance in Finland. Its roots as a renowned international catchphrase lend the concept social assertiveness, rendering it a resource that ministries can fruitfully employ in making their claims about how important they are in the national state. Furthermore, the research illustrates that European science-policy cooperation is used as a vehicle for positive identity construction by national research-funding organizations. It brings forth how the studied ERA-NET cooperation can continue even if it has not reached some of its main, material, goals because in the current era actors have a need to be portrayed as rational, advanced, international players. The ERA-NETs act as a useful tool for reaching this goal. Participation in the trendiest, most convincing and politically supported forms of international cooperation is in itself a sign that an actor is acting internationally and rationally; hence, participation is socially rewarding. The ongoing identity work also shapes the form of policy diffusion in ways that lead to harmonization yet not isomorphism. It affects the process through which global ideas gain form on the local level and steers it in the direction of glocalization. Identity work manifests itself in situations in which agents define themselves, and their sending organizations, as being certain kinds of actors or belonging to a certain "we" group. It also entails situations in which agents switch among these identity categories continuously in order to take new subject positions and communicate associated interests or institutional restrictions. This identity work and simultaneous use of several identity categories enables agents to draw on different institutional sources creatively and to construct new kinds of understandings. For example, agents' opportunity to switch back and forth between global and local identity categories enables them to interpret global ideas from local viewpoints, stretch the boundaries of global principles to fit local features, and hence construct glocalized realities. These realities include both global and local elements for which identity work leads to relatively simultaneous diffusion of global ideas, yet the outcomes are locally distinctive. At the same time, identity work enables decoupling by offering agents opportunities to follow various institutional rules at the same time. This institutional identity repertoire may lead to difficult situations but also enables agents to construct socially acceptable approaches for escaping awkward situations strategically. When certain institutional requirements turn out to be situationally too difficult to meet, agents are able to activate other identity categories and use attached scripts as a socially acceptable way to escape the situation. This finding opens a new window for understanding the process of decoupling from the standpoint of agentic actorhood. From this perspective, decoupling is not so much an act of discontinuity with the stated norm as a timely conversion to other norms, just as socially acceptable and hence important, that can be used to justify the turn in action. Together these results indicate that policymaking, both European and national, is largely informed by globally circulating and timely changing ideas and scripts. Therefore, policy actors' and policy-makers' actions or motivations cannot be fully understood without consideration of this culturally constructed reality. In addition, it shows that research on international policymaking must take a closer look at its own analytical categories of national and global. If one readily assumes that states are the central pillars of regulation and governance within and across national borders, and such an assumption steers the research design, it creates a real risk of the research failing to recognize larger structures that construct nation-states and national preferences and that thereby steer states' governance. A researcher who, on the other hand, concentrates exclusively on transnational structures may come to the ill-judged conclusion that the nation-state has come to an end or is not in any way a relevant actor in international cooperation or governance. The argument developed for the dissertation is positioned between these two extremes. Its methodological stance is that it is possible and, in fact, analytically most fruitful to understand a nation-state as a politically separate entity but at the same time a global construction. The research also highlights that globalization does not just happen; it is institutional agents, people, that produce globalization. As internationally operating and transnationally constructed representatives of organizations and professions, these agents have gained functions and responsibilities for which they are allowed to create, adopt, enact, shape, and globally spread world cultural scripts. It is particularly this activity, positioned between the global and local, that is leading to synchronization of national policies and, in this, what is often considered to be globalization. The change may not be a hundred percent isomorphic, but it is temporarily consistent and noticeable. It comes and goes in wavelike trends. One trend sweeps across the world only to weaken gradually, after which ebbing another is born, which in its turn flows over the globe, and so on. Synchronically constantly moving and turning, nation-states constitute a recognizable unit that consists clearly of interdependent, not independent, actors.

L'ensemble des travaux présentés, réalisés entre 1990 et 2006, trouve sa cohérence dans un parcours qui se propose d'analyser les traitements, la place et le regard réservés par la société valencienne des XVe-XVIIe siècles à deux catégories de marginaux souvent associés dans les mentalités valenciennes d'alors et désignés conjointement sous le nom d'Innocents (Ignoscents dans l'ancien dialecte valencien): les fous et les orphelins. Nous avons analysé les traitements qui leur étaient réservés, tant en ce qui concerne les réalités historiques que les représentations sociales qui en étaient offertes. Enfin, nous nous sommes intéressée aux représentations littéraires du microcosme de l'hôpital des fous.Nos travaux comprennent quatre volets : -attitudes de diverses institutions face à la marginalité ;-représentations sociales des fous et des orphelins ;-représentations de l'hôpital des fous par Lope de Vega Carpio ;-représentations allégoriques sur le même thème.I.L'assistance aux fous et aux orphelins à Valence aux XVe-XVIIe siècles : les attitudes institutionnelles face à la marginalitéA. Les institutions d'assistanceUn premier groupe de travaux a été consacré à l'étude des deux institutions qui assistaient ces marginaux : d'une part, les fous, pris en charge par l'Hôpital des Innocents, fondé en 1409 et devenu en 1512, lors de la fondation de l'Hôpital général, Maisons des fous et des folles de ce dernier ; d'autre part, les orphelins, éduqués par le Collège des orphelins Saint-Vincent-Ferrier, également fondé au début du XVe siècle.Locura y sociedad, notre premier livre, publié à Valence (Espagne) en 1994, est l'adaptation à l'espagnol de notre thèse de doctorat, soutenue à l'Université de la Sorbonne Nouvelle (PARIS III) sous la direction du Professeur Augustin Redondo le 13 février 1993. Il en va de même pour les deux articles ci-dessous mentionnés. L'un est le texte de la communication que nous avons lue au Colloque qui s'est tenu à Valence en mai 1997 en Hommage à l'historien espagnol de la psychiatrie, le Dr. Vicente Peset Llorca. L'autre est le texte publié dans l'ouvrage collectif paru il y a quelques mois à Valence (2007) sur l'histoire de l'Hôpital des fous de cette ville. Conformément aux recommandations pour la constitution du dossier scientifique qui figurent sur le livret du Conseil scientifique de Paris III (Vade-mecum), nous n'avons inclus ni notre thèse, ni ces trois adaptations, qui en découlent très directement, dans la liste des travaux présentés en vue de l'obtention du diplôme d'Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches. Toutefois, les ayant utilisées pour rédiger notre document de synthèse (qui, toujours selon ces mêmes instructions, doit « retracer le parcours de recherche accompli par le candidat en y incluant par conséquent les recherches engagées dans le travail antérieur de doctorat »), nous les mentionnons également ici. Il s'agit de :Travaux réalisés dans le cadre de notre thèse et directement dérivés de cette dernière :1. LIVREHélène TROPÉ, Locura y sociedad en la Valencia de los siglos XV la XVII: los locos del Hospital de los Inocentes (1409-1512) y del Hospital General (1512-1699) [Traduit par l'auteur de : Folie et société à Valence (XVe-XVIIe siècles): les fous de l'Hôpital des Innocents (1410-1512) et de l'Hôpital général (1512-1699) (thèse de doctorat sous la direction du professeur Augustin Redondo), Paris: Université de la Sorbonne Nouvelle – Paris III, 723 p.], Valencia: Diputación de Valencia, Centre d'Estudis d'História Local, 1994. 433 p.2. ArticleHélène TROPÉ, «Locura y sociedad en la Valencia de los siglos XV al XVII: los locos del Hospital de los Inocentes (1409-1512) y del Hospital General (1512-1699)», en : La locura y sus instituciones (Actas de las II Jornadas de Historia de la Psiquiatría. Homenaje al Dr. Vicente Peset Llorca, Valencia, 9 y 10 de mayo de 1997), Valencia: Diputación de Valencia, 1997, pp. 141-154.3. Participation à un OUVRAGE COLLECTIFHélène TROPÉ, Del Hospital de los Inocentes (1409-1512) a la Casa de los locos del Hospital General (1512-1699), in : Lorenzo Livianos, Conxa Císcar, Ángeles García, Carlos Heimann, Miguel Ángel Luengo, Hélène Tropé, El manicomio de Valencia del siglo XV al XX, Paterna (Valencia) : Ajuntament de Valencia, colección « Científicos valencianos », n° 8, 2006, pp. 13-117.2) Le Collège des orphelinsNous avons consacré un livre et deux articles au Collège des Orphelins Saint-Vincent-Ferrier :LIVRE Hélène TROPÉ, La formation des orphelins à Valence: le cas du Collège Impérial Saint-Vincent-Ferrier de Valence (XVe-XVIIe siècles), Paris: Publications de la Sorbonne, Presses de la Sorbonne Nouvelle, Collection «Textes et documents du Centre de Recherche sur l'Espagne des XVIe et XVIIe siècles (CRES)», vol. VIII, 1998. 416 p.Article«La formation des orphelins au Collège Saint-Vincent-Ferrier de Valence aux XVIe-XVIIe siècles», in: A. REDONDO, [Études réunies et présentées par], La formation de l'enfant dans l'Espagne des XVIe-XVIIe siècles (Actes du Colloque International, Sorbonne-Collège d'Espagne, octobre 1995), Paris: Publications de la Sorbonne Nouvelle, collection «Travaux du Centre de Recherche sur l'Espagne des XVIe et XVIIe siècles» (CRES - Directeur: Augustin REDONDO), vol. XI, 1996, pp. 215-230.Article Hélène TROPÉ, « Le mystère médiéval de saint Christophe, passeur de gué, dans la Fête-Dieu de Valence (Espagne) », in : DELPECH, François [dir.], Imaginaire des espaces aquatiques, Paris, Presses de la Sorbonne Nouvelle, Collection «Textes et documents du Centre de Recherche sur l'Espagne des XVIe et XVIIe siècles (CRES)» (à paraître).Ce livre, ainsi que le premier des deux articles mentionnés, portent sur la formation des orphelins dans ce Collège. Nous avons commencé par y retracer l'historique de cette institution, exceptionnelle par sa longévité : créée en 1410, elle existe toujours. Par son histoire et ses finalités, elle est l'homologue d'autres institutions semblables de l'Europe moderne. Fondée par des ecclésiastiques, à partir de 1593, elle devient un établissement contrôlé par trois notables de la cité et passe donc dans les faits sous contrôle de la municipalité. En 1624, elle hérite des locaux du Collège impérial destiné jusqu'en 1609 à l'éducation des enfants morisques de la ville. Après l'expulsion de ces derniers, le Collège reprend, avec les biens de cet établissement, ses armes impériales. Le Collège était destiné aux enfants issus de mariages légitimes dont un ou les deux parents étaient décédés. Par contre, les enfants abandonnés, péjorativement dénommés borts (bâtards), dès lors qu'ils étaient présumés illégitimes, devaient se contenter de l'Hôpital général. Le Collège avait clairement pour mission d'intégrer les orphelins qu'il admettait dans l'espace de la cité tout en les protégeant des milieux délinquants. Il s'agissait donc de les récupérer comme main d'œuvre pour le commerce et l'artisanat, alors en pleine expansion. L'éducation religieuse, notamment l'apprentissage de la doctrine, était le moyen de les former aux valeurs dominantes. Le catéchisme était donc au fondement même de leur apprentissage. Seuls les garçons apprenaient à lire. Les filles, reçues en moins grand nombre que les garçons —sans doute parce qu'elles trouvaient à s'employer comme servantes dès leur plus jeune âge—, apprenaient seulement à prier et à réaliser des travaux ménagers. Une fois éduqués et instruits dans la doctrine, les garçons vers l'âge de 12 ans, étaient mis en apprentissage auprès des marchands et des artisans des corporations afin d'apprendre un métier. Quant aux collégiennes, elles étaient placées comme servantes auprès d'un maître. Vers l'âge de 20 ans, considéré comme adéquat pour le mariage, l'apprentissage prenait fin et le maître d'apprentissage des garçons, ou pour les filles, l'employeur, devaient leur verser un salaire, modeste, en général de 7 livres valenciennes, afin que garçons et filles puissent se faire confectionner un habit.Le second article mentionné porte sur le mystère médiéval valencien de saint Christophe qui le représente en passeur de gué. Ce mystère a été mis en scène à Valence depuis des temps très anciens, conjointement à d'autres mystères, dans le cadre de la fête du Corpus Christi. Nous avons effectué cette recherche car nous avions connaissance de la participation des orphelins du collège, au début du XVIIIe siècle, à sa représentation et nous désirions savoir s'ils y avaient participé antérieurement. Il semble que non. Néanmoins nous avons choisi de publier tout de même nos recherches sur ce mystère, qui constitue une autre manifestation théâtrale valencienne, religieuse cette fois, et offre donc un point de comparaison pour étudier l'univers du théâtre valencien examiné dans le versant littéraire de notre dossier. D'autre part, il a trait à la célébration du Corpus Christi et donc à cet aspect des fêtes célébrées dans la ville, également important dans notre dossier.B. La protection des rois et le contrôle de l'Inquisition1. Les rois d'Aragon accordent des privilèges aux fondateurs de l'Hôpital des InnocentsLe second volet de notre étude des attitudes institutionnelles vis-à-vis de ces marginaux a été consacré à l'examen des textes des privilèges accordés aux fondateurs de l'Hôpital des Innocents par les monarques aragonais. Il s'agit du texte de la communication que nous avons lue en septembre 1993 à Jaca au XVe Congrès d'Histoire de la Couronne d'Aragon.Hélène TROPÉ., «Poder real, locura y sociedad: la concepción de los locos en los privilegios fundacionales otorgados al Hospital de Inocentes de Valencia por los monarcas aragoneses (1409-1427)», in: Actas del XV Congreso de Historia de la Corona de Aragón (Jaca, 20-25 de sept. 1993), Zaragoza: Diputación General de Aragón, Departamento de Educación y Cultura, tomo I y volumen 5°, 1996, p. 307-318.Il ressort de cette étude que la première justification donnée par les monarques à l'assistance hospitalière aux fous a trait à l'affirmation selon laquelle ces derniers sont les pauvres du Christ et qu'il convient de leur porter secours. Les assister permet ainsi au chrétien de gagner la miséricorde divine. En second lieu, leur hospitalisation est envisagée comme une mesure d'ordre public destinée à préserver la cité des troubles et des dommages que ces derniers peuvent causer. En troisième lieu, ils sont comparés aux invalides, incapables de pourvoir à leurs besoins. Le Privilège de 1427 s'élève contre la croyance selon laquelle les « insensés » expieraient leurs fautes ou celles de leurs ancêtres et affirme qu'il n'en est rien : leur folie est une manifestation de la puissance divine. 2) Les inquisiteurs du Tribunal de Valence face à la folie des accusésDans un article pour l'Hommage à Pierre Vilar rendu par l'Association des Catalanistes de France à ce très grand historien, nous avons étudié les stratégies mises en œuvre et les enquêtes diligentées par les inquisiteurs valenciens face à a folie alléguée ou présumée des accusés : Hélène TROPÉ, «Folie et Inquisition à Valence (1580-1699)», in : Hommage à Pierre Vilar / Association Française des Catalanistes, Paris: Éditions Hispaniques - AFC, 1994, p. 171-185.Nous y exposons que lorsque la réalité de la folie de l'accusé au moment des faits délictueux était avérée, elle constituait devant les tribunaux inquisitoriaux une excuse absolutoire. Dans ce cas, le procès était suspendu et il était relâché s'il avait été arrêté. Diverses enquêtes étaient donc diligentées auprès de ses proches et des témoins des faits. La folie avérée au moment du délit était très certainement prise en compte comme circonstance atténuante tout simplement parce que les inquisiteurs étaient alors convaincus que l'accusé était irresponsable et donc, qu'il n'avait pas eu l'intention de porter atteinte à la foi. En le discréditant aux yeux des tiers, la folie « annulait » aussi la dangereuse portée des propos hérétiques qu'il avait tenus. L'affaire était dès lors classée : on l'absolvait et on le renvoyait à sa famille ou, lorsqu'il n'en avait pas, on l'adressait à l'hôpital des fous. Lorsque la folie de l'accusé n'était ni évidente ni notoire et qu'il était établi qu'il avait même joui d'un certain crédit auprès de la population, une peine pouvait tout de même être appliquée dans le but de le punir et de le discréditer. Dans les cas où les accusés devenaient fous dans les prisons de l'Inquisition, les faits étaient jugés mais l'on sursoyait à l'application de la peine, on les envoyait à l'hôpital des fous afin qu'ils y soient reclus et pris en charge et l'on attendait qu'ils guérissent afin de pouvoir les punir. Le second volet de nos travaux analyse l'ensemble des efforts réalisés par les Autorités de la ville afin de réintégrer ces marginaux, symboliquement cette fois, dans le corps social en les représentant de façon rassurante à la population comme des assistés pris en charge par la ville. Nous nous sommes donc intéressée aux représentations sociales. II. Les représentations sociales des fous et des orphelins : quêtes et fêtesLes Autorités de la ville, conscientes de l'image négative que ces marginaux —les fous en particulier— pouvaient avoir dans les mentalités, ont mis en œuvre diverses stratégies afin de modifier leurs représentations. Ils ont mis en scène fous, orphelins et, plus rarement, enfants exposés, comme des figures de l'Innocence.Nous avons consacré plusieurs travaux à l'étude de ces représentations. Et d'abord un article :Hélène TROPÉ, «Les relations entre hommes et femmes dans l'univers hospitalier valencien de la folie des XV-XVIIè siècles», in: A. REDONDO, [Études réunies et présentées par], Les relations entre hommes et femmes dans l'Espagne des XVIe-XVIIe siècles, Paris: Publications de la Sorbonne, collection «Travaux du Centre de Recherche sur l'Espagne des XVIe et XVIIe siècles » (CRES - Directeur Augustin REDONDO)», vol. IX, 1996, p. 105-116.Dans celui-ci, nous avons commencé par rappeler que les administrateurs avaient édicté une règle de stricte séparation des hommes et des femmes au sein de l'hôpital. Nous avons ensuite montré que tout au long de la période, cette règle a été transgressée comme le prouvent les enfants mis au monde par des folles depuis longtemps hospitalisées. Enfin, nous avons étudié les diverses mises en scène que les administrateurs de l'hôpital eux-mêmes ont effectuées des relations entre fous et folles à l'extérieur de l'établissement dans le cadre des processions festives, au XVIIe siècle en particulier. Puis, dans notre contribution à l'Hommage que le CRES a rendu au Professeur Augustin Redondo, nous avons analysé les représentations sociales des fous et des orphelins, d'abord à l'intérieur de leurs institutions d'assistance respectives, puis à l'extérieur :Hélène TROPÉ, «Fêtes et représentations des marginaux à Valence aux XVIe et XVIIe siècles», in: Écriture, pouvoir et société en Espagne aux XVIe et XVIIe siècles. Hommage du CRES au Professeur Augustin Redondo, Paris: Publications de la Sorbonne, Presses de la Sorbonne Nouvelle, 2001, p. 347-363.Nous y avons notamment étudié comment chroniques, mémoires et journaux privés attestent qu'à l'occasion de diverses manifestations collectives publiques, festives ou expiatoires, les Autorités de la ville ont ainsi fait paraître en tête des processions au moins trois catégories de marginaux assistés dans les institutions évoquées, le plus souvent les fous de l'Hôpital général et les orphelins du Collège Saint-Vincent-Ferrier et, moins fréquemment, les enfants exposés de l'Hôpital général. Ces marginaux étaient chargés d'incarner des rôles, ce qui, symboliquement, permettait de les réinsérer dans le tissu social. Ils furent notamment convertis en figures de l'Innocence.Montrer sur les chars de la ville ces enfants ainsi « récupérés » et préservés de la délinquance, exhiber sous un jour drôle et plaisant les fous de l'Hôpital, grâce, finalement, à une efficace politique d'assistance municipale, ne devait pas manquer d'avoir un certain impact, sans doute voulu et même recherché, sur la population et devait constituer une sorte de publicité vivante à la louange du puissant patriciat gouvernant les affaires de la cité et qui montrait ainsi qu'il savait aussi réintégrer les marginaux dans le tissu social. Ces mises en scène des assistés contribuaient à rassurer le public et, en dernière instance, offraient l'image d'une société valencienne idéalement parfaite.Les deux volets suivants de notre dossier concernent le système de représentations littéraires suscité par l'existence de cet hôpital de Valence, et plus largement, les images littéraires de l'hôpital, notamment de fous, incurables, insensés, etc. Nous avons étudié exclusivement les images correspondant à la première des deux institutions étudiées car, à notre connaissance, aux XVe, XVIe et XVIIe siècles, ni les enfants exposés de l'Hôpital Général, ni les orphelins de Saint-Vincent-Ferrier n'ont fait l'objet de représentations littéraires. Concernant les représentations littéraires construites à partir du motif de l'hôpital, l'historicité des hôpitaux représentés permet de distinguer deux types de productions. D'une part, des œuvres où un hôpital de fous, explicitement nommé, sert de référent et de cadre à tout ou partie de l'action. C'est le cas en particulier de trois œuvres de Lope de Vega Carpio qui effectuent des variations sur ce thème.Elles font l'objet du troisième volet de notre dossier.III. L'hôpital des fous selon Lope : trois variations sur un même thèmeHélène TROPÉ, édition critique de Los locos de Valencia de LOPE DE VEGA CARPIO, Madrid, Castalia, « Clásicos castellanos » n° 275, 2003, 352 p. Hélène TROPÉ, Traduction française de Los locos de Valencia de Lope de Vega Carpio (à paraître).Hélène TROPÉ, « La representación dramática del hospital del microcosmos del Hospital de los locos en Los locos de Valencia de Lope de Vega », Anuario Lope de Vega V (1999), Prolope, Departament de Filologia Espanyola de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, pp. 167-184.Hélène TROPÉ, « Menosprecio de Aragón y exaltación de Castilla en El loco por fuerza, comedia atribuida a Lope de Vega », comunication lue dans le cadre du Colloque International organisé par l'Universitá degli Studi di Parma et l'Université de la Sorbonne Nouvelle – Paris III (Parme, 2-3 mai 2002) sur El texto y su marco : La representación del espacio en el Siglo de Oro español, (à paraître dans Criticón), Après avoir réalisé l'édition critique de la comedia de Lope de Vega Los locos de Valencia, nous l'avons traduite en français. Dans ces deux livres, nous avons présenté le texte et nous l'avons très soigneusement annoté afin d'éclairer le sens de multiples allusions littéraires ou médicales qui peut échapper au lecteur contemporain. Nous nous sommes donc efforcée de rendre le texte accessible.Nous avons consacré un premier article à l'étude de la représentation dramatique de l'hôpital des fous par Lope de Vega Carpio. Nous y avons mis en regard les stylisations réalisées par cet auteur avec ce que nos études antérieures sur l'histoire de cet hôpital nous avaient appris. Nous avons conclu que la pièce Los locos de Valencia ressemble plus à l'image que les administrateurs offraient de leurs hospitalisés, lorsqu'ils les mettaient en scène sur les chars lors des grandes processions dans la ville, qu'à ce qu'a été au quotidien la Maison des fous et des folles. L'hôpital reflété dans Los locos de Valencia ne conserve qu'une ressemblance illusoire avec l'hôpital historique. Il s'agit plus en fait d'une pièce sur le théâtre construite sur la rencontre du topos érasmien de la folie universelle avec celui du Grand Théâtre du Monde. Dans l'article suivant « Menosprecio de Aragón… », nous avons étudié comment, selon la méthode de « l'argumentation casuistique » qui serait propre à Lope de Vega, ce dramaturge présenterait dans une comedia une solution opposée à celle proposée dans une autre œuvre ayant pourtant la même intrigue et comportant les mêmes personnages. C'est le cas des deux œuvres où Lope a représenté l'hôpital : Los locos de Valencia, El peregrino en su patria, ainsi que El loco por fuerza, pièce qui lui a été attribuée et dont nous pensons personnellement qu'elle est bien de lui. Il nous est apparu que la question du genre détermine les variations entre les trois pièces. Ainsi, logiquement, dans la comedia Los locos de Valencia, l'hôpital des fous devient le microcosme de la folie comique. Dans les scènes asilaires du roman byzantin, il est par contre un espace sinistre où la folie, tragique, signe l'accomplissement du destin dramatique des amants soumis à d'incessantes tribulations. Quant à El loco por fuerza, il s'agit d'un drama, mot que nous employons ici pour désigner, avec le professeur Joan Oleza, un macro-genre caractérisé par sa mission transcendante, son prosélytisme et son contenu panégyrique. Dans cette pièce, l'hôpital est tragi-comique. La question des genres présiderait donc bien à ces variations et les expliquerait.D'autre part, nous avons étudié comment cette pièce, probablement écrite par Lope de Vega entre 1597 et 1608, met en scène de très conflictuelles relations entre castillans et aragonais dans le cadre de la ville de Saragosse et de la montagne aragonaise. Nous l'avons analysée à la lumière du contexte historique des révoltes aragonaises de 1591 et avons émis l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'internement forcé du personnage principal pourrait peut-être renvoyer aux poursuites intentées par Philippe II contre son Secrétaire Antonio Pérez, accusé d'assassinat, lequel se réfugia à partir d'avril 1590 en Aragon où il provoqua deux soulèvements à Saragosse en mai et en septembre 1591. Enfin, concluant dans cet article sur l'ensemble du dossier des représentations de l'hôpital par Lope de Vega, nous avons proposé des hypothèses de lecture conjointe de El loco por fuerza et de Los locos de Valencia en rapport avec l'affaire Pérez et les Relaciones (éditions de 1594 et 1598) écrites par ce dernier. Nous avons tenté de montrer que Lope de Vega inverse radicalement les perspectives idéologiques favorables aux aragonais depuis lesquelles Pérez a écrit son texte. Dans El loco por fuerza, la Castille apparaît à travers les membres du couple d'amoureux originaires de Tolède comme une terre de vertu menacée par ce qui est montré dans la pièce comme perversion morale et politique aragonaise : exaltation de Castille et mépris d'Aragon. Le monarque qui rétablit l'ordre à la fin de l'œuvre est un parangon de justice. La pièce est orientée idéologiquement vers une exaltation de la Castille comme véritable centre de l'Empire et une condamnation des révoltes aragonaises.Si les « hôpitaux lopesques » se caractérisent par la forte illusion référentielle qu'ils génèrent en dépit de leur historicité finalement assez faible, d'autres représentations d'asiles n'autorisent plus du tout la moindre confusion du signe théâtral avec le simulacre de référent : ce sont les représentations allégoriques, objet du quatrième volet de nos travaux.IV. Les fous défilent. Représentations allégoriques de l'hôpital des fousLa tradition littéraire de « l'hôpital » paraît ancienne et elle est profuse. Dans la dernière partie de notre dossier, nous avons étudié deux de ces représentations allégoriques : la tragi-comédie de Charles Beys L'Hospital des fous (1635), modifiée en 1653 sous le titre Les illustres fous, et un texte attribué à Quevedo, mais qui serait en réalité du poète et musicien sévillan Melgarejo : La Casa de los locos de amor. Le texte d'origine est conservé dans un manuscrit du début du XVIIe siècle et a été publié, dans une version toutefois expurgée et fort édulcorée, dans l'édition des sueños de Quevedo parue à Saragosse en 1627, puis dans presque toutes les éditions successives. Dans la plupart de ces représentations allégoriques, dont nous avons offert un panorama (toutefois non exhaustif) dans notre synthèse, on observe un certain nombre d'éléments récurrents qui autorisent à considérer l'hypothèse selon laquelle ces représentations formeraient peut-être un sous-genre ou à tout le moins, une tradition : narrateur personnel en position de témoin, figures allégoriques correspondant aux membres de l'hôpital visité, défilé de fous.Le texte de la communication que nous avons lue au XIVe Congrès de l'Association Internationale des Hispanistes (New York, juillet 2001) est consacré à l'étude du procédé dans Los locos de Valencia et El peregrino en su patria de Lope de Vega :Hélène TROPÉ, « Desfiles de locos en dos obras de Lope de Vega : Los locos de Valencia y El peregrino en su patria », Actas del XIV Congreso de la Asociación Internacional de Hispanistas [Nueva York, 16-21, Julio, 2001], edición de Isaías Lerner, Robert Nival y Alejandro Alonso, Newark, Delaware, Juan de la Cuesta, col. « Hispanic Monographs », 2004, t. II, p. 555-564.Dans notre synthèse, nous avons exprimé qu'il nous semble que cette étude pourrait être étendue valablement et avec profit à d'autres représentations ; mais que l'extension du corpus conduirait probablement à un élargissement du point de vue. On serait alors probablement amené à conclure que le rire que suscite cette revue d'insensés dans les œuvres de Lope peut se transmuer en franche amertume et déboucher sur une vision désabusée du monde dans d'autres œuvres telles que La casa de los locos de amor. Lu au VIe Congrès de la Asociación internacional Siglo de Oro (AISO) à Burgos en juillet 2002, le texte de notre communication montre que cette dernière œuvre est un rêve allégorique parodique qui débouche sur une satire du mariage et de l'amour représentés comme folie. Dans la version manuscrite, La casa de los locos de amor est une censure sévère des mœurs dépravées et brosse un noir tableau de la société espagnole du temps. Paradoxalement, dans sa version expurgée et édulcorée parue avec d'autres textes de Quevedo dans les Sueños de 1627, son éloge du mariage lui aurait certainement valu d'être reniée par l'auteur des Sueños. Telles sont les conclusions qui ressortent du texte de l'article correspondant :Hélène TROPÉ, « Los 'Hospitales de locos' en la literatura española del siglo XVII: la representación alegórico-moral de la Casa de los locos de amor atribuida a Quevedo », en: Actas del VI Congreso de la Asociación internacional Siglo de Oro (AISO) [Burgos, Universidad de Burgos, 15-19 de julio de 2002], Madrid : Iberoamericana Vervuert.Enfin, dans l'article consacré à la tragi-comédie de Charles Beys L'Hospital des fous, publiée en 1635, reprise et modifiée en 1653, sous le titre Les Illustres fous, nous avons confronté l'image de la folie hospitalière, offerte respectivement par l'Italien Garzoni, l'Espagnol Lope de Vega et le Français Charles Beys, de ce même microcosme de la folie hospitalière et montré que les représentations de l'Italien et de l'Espagnol se rapprochent sur des points qui les opposent à celle du Français. L'hôpital représenté par Lope de Vega, comme celui de Garzoni, est un microcosme séparé du monde. L'hôpital de Beys, au contraire, dont les frontières s'étendent au fur et mesure de la représentation, a vocation à figurer tout l'univers et sa folie. D'autre part, dans l'hôpital des fous de l'Italien et de l'Espagnol, les frontières entre le personnel et les hospitalisés restent stables, plus hermétiques cependant chez le premier que chez le second, alors que dans l'hôpital du Français elles tendent peu à peu à s'effacer jusqu'à ce que soit révélé au spectateur que le Concierge, censé garder les fous, l'est autant qu'eux et que la pièce à la représentation de laquelle le spectateur est en train d'assister a même été écrite par lui. En conséquence, alors que ni la pièce du Phénix ni celle de Garzoni ne tendent jamais véritablement de miroir au spectateur afin qu'il s'y regarde et conclue qu'il est un fou parmi les fous mis en scène, chez le Français au contraire, le spectateur est explicitement invité à se reconnaître parmi les rôles de fous défilant devant lui. La folie est univoque et irréversible dans l'ouvrage de Garzoni. Elle l'est aussi en grande partie dans la pièce de Lope de Vega. Par contre, dans celle de Beys, elle est équivoque, ambiguë, constamment réversible et surtout elle est universelle :Hélène TROPÉ, « Variations dramatiques espagnoles et françaises sur le thème de l'hôpital des fous aux XVIe et XVIIe siècles : de Lope de Vega Carpio à Charles Beys », Bulletin Hispanique (à paraître).

Publisher's version (útgefin grein). ; Quantifying the genetic correlation between cancers can provide important insights into the mechanisms driving cancer etiology. Using genome-wide association study summary statistics across six cancer types based on a total of 296,215 cases and 301,319 controls of European ancestry, here we estimate the pair-wise genetic correlations between breast, colorectal, head/neck, lung, ovary and prostate cancer, and between cancers and 38 other diseases. We observed statistically significant genetic correlations between lung and head/neck cancer (rg = 0.57, p = 4.6 × 10−8), breast and ovarian cancer (rg = 0.24, p = 7 × 10−5), breast and lung cancer (rg = 0.18, p =1.5 × 10−6) and breast and colorectal cancer (rg = 0.15, p = 1.1 × 10−4). We also found that multiple cancers are genetically correlated with non-cancer traits including smoking, psychiatric diseases and metabolic characteristics. Functional enrichment analysis revealed a significant excess contribution of conserved and regulatory regions to cancer heritability. Our comprehensive analysis of cross-cancer heritability suggests that solid tumors arising across tissues share in part a common germline genetic basis. ; The authors in this manuscript were working on behalf of BCAC, CCFR, CIMBA, CORECT, GECCO, OCAC, PRACTICAL, CRUK, BPC3, CAPS, PEGASUS, TRICL-ILCCO, ABCTB, APCB, BCFR, CONSIT TEAM, EMBRACE, GC-HBOC, GEMO, HEBON, kConFab/AOCS Mod SQuaD, and SWE-BRCA. The breast cancer genome-wide association analyses: BCAC is funded by Cancer Research UK [C1287/A16563, C1287/A10118], the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant numbers 634935 and 633784 for BRIDGES and B-CAST, respectively), and by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement number 223175 (grant number HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS). The EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme funding source had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. Genotyping of the OncoArray was funded by the NIH Grant U19 CA148065, and Cancer UK Grant C1287/A16563 and the PERSPECTIVE project supported by the Government of Canada through Genome Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (grant GPH-129344) and, the Ministère de l'Économie, Science et Innovation du Québec through Genome Québec and the PSR-SIIRI-701 grant, and the Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation. Funding for the iCOGS infrastructure came from: the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement n° 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692, C8197/A16565), the National Institutes of Health (CA128978), and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065, and 1U19 CA148112—the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defence (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, and Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. The DRIVE Consortium was funded by U19 CA148065. The Australian Breast Cancer Family Study (ABCFS) was supported by grant UM1 CA164920 from the National Cancer Institute (USA). The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR), nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the USA Government or the BCFR. The ABCFS was also supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the New South Wales Cancer Council, the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (Australia), and the Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium. J.L.H. is a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Senior Principal Research Fellow. M.C.S. is a NHMRC Senior Research Fellow. The ABCS study was supported by the Dutch Cancer Society [grants NKI 2007-3839; 2009 4363]. The Australian Breast Cancer Tissue Bank (ABCTB) is generously supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, The Cancer Institute NSW and the National Breast Cancer Foundation. The ACP study is funded by the Breast Cancer Research Trust, UK. The AHS study is supported by the intramural research program of the National Institutes of Health, the National Cancer Institute (grant number Z01-CP010119), and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (grant number Z01-ES049030). The work of the BBCC was partly funded by ELAN-Fond of the University Hospital of Erlangen. The BBCS is funded by Cancer Research UK and Breast Cancer Now and acknowledges NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, and the National Cancer Research Network (NCRN). The BCEES was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia and the Cancer Council Western Australia and acknowledges funding from the National Breast Cancer Foundation (JS). For the BCFR-NY, BCFR-PA, and BCFR-UT this work was supported by grant UM1 CA164920 from the National Cancer Institute. The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR), nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the US Government or the BCFR. For BIGGS, ES is supported by NIHR Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre, Guy's & St. Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London, United Kingdom. IT is supported by the Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. BOCS is supported by funds from Cancer Research UK (C8620/A8372/A15106) and the Institute of Cancer Research (UK). BOCS acknowledges NHS funding to the Royal Marsden/Institute of Cancer Research NIHR Specialist Cancer Biomedical Research Centre. The BREast Oncology GAlician Network (BREOGAN) is funded by Acción Estratégica de Salud del Instituto de Salud Carlos III FIS PI12/02125/Cofinanciado FEDER; Acción Estratégica de Salud del Instituto de Salud Carlos III FIS Intrasalud (PI13/01136); Programa Grupos Emergentes, Cancer Genetics Unit, Instituto de Investigacion Biomedica Galicia Sur. Xerencia de Xestion Integrada de Vigo-SERGAS, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain; Grant 10CSA012E, Consellería de Industria Programa Sectorial de Investigación Aplicada, PEME I + D e I + D Suma del Plan Gallego de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación Tecnológica de la Consellería de Industria de la Xunta de Galicia, Spain; Grant EC11-192. Fomento de la Investigación Clínica Independiente, Ministerio de Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad, Spain; and Grant FEDER-Innterconecta. Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad, Xunta de Galicia, Spain. The BSUCH study was supported by the Dietmar-Hopp Foundation, the Helmholtz Society and the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ). The CAMA study was funded by Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT) (SALUD-2002-C01-7462). Sample collection and processing was funded in part by grants from the National Cancer Institute (NCI R01CA120120 and K24CA169004). CBCS is funded by the Canadian Cancer Society (grant # 313404) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. CCGP is supported by funding from the University of Crete. The CECILE study was supported by Fondation de France, Institut National du Cancer (INCa), Ligue Nationale contre le Cancer, Agence Nationale de Sécurité Sanitaire, de l'Alimentation, de l'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR). The CGPS was supported by the Chief Physician Johan Boserup and Lise Boserup Fund, the Danish Medical Research Council, and Herlev and Gentofte Hospital. The CNIO-BCS was supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, the Red Temática de Investigación Cooperativa en Cáncer and grants from the Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer and the Fondo de Investigación Sanitario (PI11/00923 and PI12/00070). COLBCCC is supported by the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany. D.T. was in part supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. The American Cancer Society funds the creation, maintenance, and updating of the CPS-II cohort. The CTS was initially supported by the California Breast Cancer Act of 1993 and the California Breast Cancer Research Fund (contract 97-10500) and is currently funded through the National Institutes of Health (R01 CA77398, UM1 CA164917, and U01 CA199277). Collection of cancer incidence data was supported by the California Department of Public Health as part of the statewide cancer reporting program mandated by California Health and Safety Code Section 103885. H.A.C eceives support from the Lon V Smith Foundation (LVS39420). The University of Westminster curates the DietCompLyf database funded by Against Breast Cancer Registered Charity No. 1121258 and the NCRN. The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by: Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation, the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/A16491 and C8221/A19170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom). The ESTHER study was supported by a grant from the Baden Württemberg Ministry of Science, Research and Arts. Additional cases were recruited in the context of the VERDI study, which was supported by a grant from the German Cancer Aid (Deutsche Krebshilfe). FHRISK is funded from NIHR grant PGfAR 0707-10031. The GC-HBOC (German Consortium of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer) is supported by the German Cancer Aid (grant no 110837, coordinator: Rita K. Schmutzler, Cologne). This work was also funded by the European Regional Development Fund and Free State of Saxony, Germany (LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases, project numbers 713-241202, 713-241202, 14505/2470, and 14575/2470). The GENICA was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Germany grants 01KW9975/5, 01KW9976/8, 01KW9977/0, and 01KW0114, the Robert Bosch Foundation, Stuttgart, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ), Heidelberg, the Institute for Prevention and Occupational Medicine of the German Social Accident Insurance, Institute of the Ruhr University Bochum (IPA), Bochum, as well as the Department of Internal Medicine, Evangelische Kliniken Bonn gGmbH, Johanniter Krankenhaus, Bonn, Germany. The GEPARSIXTO study was conducted by the German Breast Group GmbH. The GESBC was supported by the Deutsche Krebshilfe e. V. [70492] and the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ). GLACIER was supported by Breast Cancer Now, CRUK and Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. The HABCS study was supported by the Claudia von Schilling Foundation for Breast Cancer Research, by the Lower Saxonian Cancer Society, and by the Rudolf-Bartling Foundation. The HEBCS was financially supported by the Helsinki University Central Hospital Research Fund, Academy of Finland (266528), the Finnish Cancer Society, and the Sigrid Juselius Foundation. The HERPACC was supported by MEXT Kakenhi (No. 170150181 and 26253041) from the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports, Culture and Technology of Japan, by a Grant-in-Aid for the Third Term Comprehensive 10-Year Strategy for Cancer Control from Ministry Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, by Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants for Research on Applying Health Technology from Ministry Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, by National Cancer Center Research and Development Fund, and "Practical Research for Innovative Cancer Control (15ck0106177h0001)" from Japan Agency for Medical Research and development, AMED, and Cancer Bio Bank Aichi. The HMBCS was supported by a grant from the Friends of Hannover Medical School and by the Rudolf Bartling Foundation. The HUBCS was supported by a grant from the German Federal Ministry of Research and Education (RUS08/017), and by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations for support the Bioresource collections and RFBR grants 14-04-97088, 17-29-06014, and 17-44-020498. ICICLE was supported by Breast Cancer Now, CRUK, and Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. Financial support for KARBAC was provided through the regional agreement on medical training and clinical research (A.L.F.) between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska Institutet, the Swedish Cancer Society, The Gustav V Jubilee foundation and Bert von Kantzows foundation. The KARMA study was supported by Märit and Hans Rausings Initiative Against Breast Cancer. The KBCP was financially supported by the special Government Funding (E.V.O.) of Kuopio University Hospital grants, Cancer Fund of North Savo, the Finnish Cancer Organizations, and by the strategic funding of the University of Eastern Finland. kConFab is supported by a grant from the National Breast Cancer Foundation, and previously by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the Queensland Cancer Fund, the Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia, and the Cancer Foundation of Western Australia. Financial support for the AOCS was provided by the United States Army Medical Research and Materiel Command [DAMD17-01-1-0729], Cancer Council Victoria, Queensland Cancer Fund, Cancer Council New South Wales, Cancer Council South Australia, The Cancer Foundation of Western Australia, Cancer Council Tasmania and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC; 400413, 400281, 199600). G.C.-T. and P.W. are supported by the NHMRC. RB was a Cancer Institute NSW Clinical Research Fellow. The KOHBRA study was partially supported by a grant from the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), and the National R&D Program for Cancer Control, Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (HI16C1127; 1020350; 1420190). LAABC is supported by grants (1RB-0287, 3PB-0102, 5PB-0018, 10PB-0098) from the California Breast Cancer Research Program. Incident breast cancer cases were collected by the USC Cancer Surveillance Program (CSP) which is supported under subcontract by the California Department of Health. The CSP is also part of the National Cancer Institute's Division of Cancer Prevention and Control Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, under contract number N01CN25403. L.M.B.C. is supported by the 'Stichting tegen Kanker'. D.L. is supported by the FWO. The MABCS study is funded by the Research Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology "Georgi D. Efremov" and supported by the German Academic Exchange Program, DAAD. The MARIE study was supported by the Deutsche Krebshilfe e.V. [70-2892-BR I, 106332, 108253, 108419, 110826, 110828], the Hamburg Cancer Society, the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Germany [01KH0402]. MBCSG is supported by grants from the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC) and by funds from the Italian citizens who allocated the 5/1000 share of their tax payment in support of the Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, according to Italian laws (INT-Institutional strategic projects "5 × 1000"). The MCBCS was supported by the NIH grants CA192393, CA116167, CA176785 an NIH Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer [CA116201], and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and a generous gift from the David F. and Margaret T. Grohne Family Foundation. MCCS cohort recruitment was funded by VicHealth and Cancer Council Victoria. The MCCS was further supported by Australian NHMRC grants 209057 and 396414, and by infrastructure provided by Cancer Council Victoria. Cases and their vital status were ascertained through the Victorian Cancer Registry (VCR) and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), including the National Death Index and the Australian Cancer Database. The MEC was support by NIH grants CA63464, CA54281, CA098758, CA132839, and CA164973. The MISS study is supported by funding from ERC-2011-294576 Advanced grant, Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council, Local hospital funds, Berta Kamprad Foundation, Gunnar Nilsson. The MMHS study was supported by NIH grants CA97396, CA128931, CA116201, CA140286, and CA177150. MSKCC is supported by grants from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and Robert and Kate Niehaus Clinical Cancer Genetics Initiative. The work of MTLGEBCS was supported by the Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the "CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer" program – grant # CRN-87521 and the Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade – grant # PSR-SIIRI-701. MYBRCA is funded by research grants from the Malaysian Ministry of Higher Education (UM.C/HlR/MOHE/06) and Cancer Research Malaysia. MYMAMMO is supported by research grants from Yayasan Sime Darby LPGA Tournament and Malaysian Ministry of Higher Education (RP046B-15HTM). The NBCS has been supported by the Research Council of Norway grant 193387/V50 (to A.-L. Børresen-Dale and V.N. Kristensen) and grant 193387/H10 (to A.-L. Børresen-Dale and V.N. Kristensen), South Eastern Norway Health Authority (grant 39346 to A.-L. Børresen-Dale and 27208 to V.N. Kristensen) and the Norwegian Cancer Society (to A.-L. Børresen-Dale and 419616 - 71248 - PR-2006-0282 to V.N. Kristensen). It has received funding from the K.G. Jebsen Centre for Breast Cancer Research (2012-2015). The NBHS was supported by NIH grant R01CA100374. Biological sample preparation was conducted the Survey and Biospecimen Shared Resource, which is supported by P30 CA68485. The Northern California Breast Cancer Family Registry (NC-BCFR) and Ontario Familial Breast Cancer Registry (OFBCR) were supported by grant UM1 CA164920 from the National Cancer Institute (USA). The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR), nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the USA Government or the BCFR. The Carolina Breast Cancer Study was funded by Komen Foundation, the National Cancer Institute (P50 CA058223, U54 CA156733, and U01 CA179715), and the North Carolina University Cancer Research Fund. The NGOBCS was supported by Grants-in-Aid for the Third Term Comprehensive Ten-Year Strategy for Cancer Control from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan, and for Scientific Research on Priority Areas, 17015049 and for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas, 221S0001, from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The NHS was supported by NIH grants P01 CA87969, UM1 CA186107, and U19 CA148065. The NHS2 was supported by NIH grants UM1 CA176726 and U19 CA148065. The OBCS was supported by research grants from the Finnish Cancer Foundation, the Academy of Finland (grant number 250083, 122715 and Center of Excellence grant number 251314), the Finnish Cancer Foundation, the Sigrid Juselius Foundation, the University of Oulu, the University of Oulu Support Foundation, and the special Governmental EVO funds for Oulu University Hospital-based research activities. The ORIGO study was supported by the Dutch Cancer Society (RUL 1997-1505) and the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL CP16). The PBCS was funded by Intramural Research Funds of the National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, USA. Genotyping for PLCO was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, NCI, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics. The PLCO is supported by the Intramural Research Program of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics and supported by contracts from the Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. The POSH study is funded by Cancer Research UK (grants C1275/A11699, C1275/C22524, C1275/A19187, C1275/A15956, and Breast Cancer Campaign 2010PR62, 2013PR044. PROCAS is funded from NIHR grant PGfAR 0707-10031. The RBCS was funded by the Dutch Cancer Society (DDHK 2004-3124, DDHK 2009-4318). The SASBAC study was supported by funding from the Agency for Science, Technology and Research of Singapore (A*STAR), the US National Institute of Health (NIH) and the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation. The SBCGS was supported primarily by NIH grants R01CA64277, R01CA148667, UMCA182910, and R37CA70867. Biological sample preparation was conducted the Survey and Biospecimen Shared Resource, which is supported by P30 CA68485. The scientific development and funding of this project were, in part, supported by the Genetic Associations and Mechanisms in Oncology (GAME-ON) Network U19 CA148065. The SBCS was supported by Sheffield Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre and Breast Cancer Now Tissue Bank. The SCCS is supported by a grant from the National Institutes of Health (R01 CA092447). Data on SCCS cancer cases used in this publication were provided by the Alabama Statewide Cancer Registry; Kentucky Cancer Registry, Lexington, KY; Tennessee Department of Health, Office of Cancer Surveillance; Florida Cancer Data System; North Carolina Central Cancer Registry, North Carolina Division of Public Health; Georgia Comprehensive Cancer Registry; Louisiana Tumor Registry; Mississippi Cancer Registry; South Carolina Central Cancer Registry; Virginia Department of Health, Virginia Cancer Registry; Arkansas Department of Health, Cancer Registry, 4815 W. Markham, Little Rock, AR 72205. The Arkansas Central Cancer Registry is fully funded by a grant from National Program of Cancer Registries, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Data on SCCS cancer cases from Mississippi were collected by the Mississippi Cancer Registry which participates in the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The contents of this publication are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the CDC or the Mississippi Cancer Registry. SEARCH is funded by Cancer Research UK [C490/A10124, C490/A16561] and supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Cambridge. The University of Cambridge has received salary support for PDPP from the NHS in the East of England through the Clinical Academic Reserve. SEBCS was supported by the BRL (Basic Research Laboratory) program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (2012-0000347). SGBCC is funded by the NUS start-up Grant, National University Cancer Institute Singapore (NCIS) Centre Grant and the NMRC Clinician Scientist Award. Additional controls were recruited by the Singapore Consortium of Cohort Studies-Multi-ethnic cohort (SCCS-MEC), which was funded by the Biomedical Research Council, grant number: 05/1/21/19/425. The Sister Study (SISTER) is supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01-ES044005 and Z01-ES049033). The Two Sister Study (2SISTER) was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01-ES044005 and Z01-ES102245), and, also by a grant from Susan G. Komen for the Cure, grant FAS0703856. SKKDKFZS is supported by the DKFZ. The SMC is funded by the Swedish Cancer Foundation. The SZBCS was supported by Grant PBZ_KBN_122/P05/2004. The TBCS was funded by The National Cancer Institute, Thailand. The TNBCC was supported by a Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201), a grant from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, a generous gift from the David F. and Margaret T. Grohne Family Foundation. The TWBCS is supported by the Taiwan Biobank project of the Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan. The UCIBCS component of this research was supported by the NIH [CA58860, CA92044] and the Lon V Smith Foundation [LVS39420]. The UKBGS is funded by Breast Cancer Now and the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), London. ICR acknowledges NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The UKOPS study was funded by The Eve Appeal (The Oak Foundation) and supported by the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. The US3SS study was supported by Massachusetts (K.M.E., R01CA47305), Wisconsin (P.A.N., R01 CA47147) and New Hampshire (L.T.-E., R01CA69664) centers, and Intramural Research Funds of the National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, USA. The USRT Study was funded by Intramural Research Funds of the National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, USA. The WAABCS study was supported by grants from the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health (R01 CA89085 and P50 CA125183 and the D43 TW009112 grant), Susan G. Komen (SAC110026), the Dr. Ralph and Marian Falk Medical Research Trust, and the Avon Foundation for Women. The WHI program is funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the US National Institutes of Health and the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHSN268201100046C, HHSN268201100001C, HHSN268201100002C, HHSN268201100003C, HHSN268201100004C, and HHSN271201100004C). This work was also funded by NCI U19 CA148065-01. D.G.E. is supported by the all Manchester NIHR Biomedical research center Manchester (IS-BRC-1215-20007). HUNBOCS, Hungarian Breast and Ovarian Cancer Study was supported by Hungarian Research Grant KTIA-OTKA CK-80745, NKFI_OTKA K-112228. C.I. received support from the Nontherapeutic Subject Registry Shared Resource at Georgetown University (NIH/NCI P30-CA-51008) and the Jess and Mildred Fisher Center for Hereditary Cancer and Clinical Genomics Research. K.M. is supported by CRUK C18281/A19169. City of Hope Clinical Cancer Community Research Network and the Hereditary Cancer Research Registry, supported in part by Award Number RC4CA153828 (PI: J Weitzel) from the National Cancer Institute and the office of the Directory, National Institutes of Health. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. The colorectal cancer genome-wide association analyses: Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study (CORECT): The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the CORECT Consortium, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products or organizations imply endorsement by the US Government or the CORECT Consortium. We are incredibly grateful for the contributions of Dr. Brian Henderson and Dr. Roger Green over the course of this study and acknowledge them in memoriam. We are also grateful for support from Daniel and Maryann Fong. ColoCare: we thank the many investigators and staff who made this research possible in ColoCare Seattle and ColoCare Heidelberg. ColoCare was initiated and developed at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center by Drs. Ulrich and Grady. CCFR: the Colon CFR graciously thanks the generous contributions of their study participants, dedication of study staff, and financial support from the U.S. National Cancer Institute, without which this important registry would not exist. Galeon: GALEON wishes to thank the Department of Surgery of University Hospital of Santiago (CHUS), Sara Miranda Ponte, Carmen M Redondo, and the staff of the Department of Pathology and Biobank of CHUS, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria de Santiago (IDIS), Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Galicia Sur (IISGS), SERGAS, Vigo, Spain, and Programa Grupos Emergentes, Cancer Genetics Unit, CHUVI Vigo Hospital, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain. MCCS: this study was made possible by the contribution of many people, including the original investigators and the diligent team who recruited participants and continue to work on follow-up. We would also like to express our gratitude to the many thousands of Melbourne residents who took part in the study and provided blood samples. SEARCH: We acknowledge the contributions of Mitul Shah, Val Rhenius, Sue Irvine, Craig Luccarini, Patricia Harrington, Don Conroy, Rebecca Mayes, and Caroline Baynes. The Swedish low-risk colorectal cancer study: we thank Berith Wejderot and the Swedish low-risk colorectal cancer study group. Genetics & Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO): we thank all those at the GECCO Coordinating Center for helping bring together the data and people that made this project possible. ASTERISK: we are very grateful to Dr. Bruno Buecher without whom this project would not have existed. We also thank all those who agreed to participate in this study, including the patients and the healthy control persons, as well as all the physicians, technicians and students. DACHS: we thank all participants and cooperating clinicians, and Ute Handte-Daub, Renate Hettler-Jensen, Utz Benscheid, Muhabbet Celik, and Ursula Eilber for excellent technical assistance. HPFS, NHS and PHS: we acknowledge Patrice Soule and Hardeep Ranu of the Dana-Farber Harvard Cancer Center High-Throughput Polymorphism Core who assisted in the genotyping for NHS, HPFS, and PHS under the supervision of Dr. Immaculata Devivo and Dr. David Hunter, Qin (Carolyn) Guo, and Lixue Zhu who assisted in programming for NHS and HPFS and Haiyan Zhang who assisted in programming for the PHS. We thank the participants and staff of the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, for their valuable contributions as well as the following state cancer registries for their help: A.L., A.Z., A.R., C.A., C.O., C.T., D.E., F.L., G.A., I.D., I.L., I.N., I.A., K.Y., L.A., M.E., M.D., M.A., M.I., N.E., N.H., N.J., N.Y., N.C., N.D., O.H., O.K., O.R., P.A., R.I., S.C., T.N., T.X., V.A., W.A., W.Y. In addition, this study was approved by the Connecticut Department of Public Health (DPH) Human Investigations Committee. Certain data used in this publication were obtained from the DPH. We assume full responsibility for analyses and interpretation of these data. PLCO: we thank Drs. Christine Berg and Philip Prorok, Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, the Screening Center investigators and staff or the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, Mr. Tom Riley and staff, Information Management Services Inc., Ms. Barbara O'Brien and staff, Westat Inc. and Drs. Bill Kopp, Wen Shao and staff, SAIC-Frederick. Most importantly, we acknowledge the study participants for their contributions for making this study possible. The statements contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not represent or imply concurrence or endorsement by NCI. PMH: we thank the study participants and staff of the Hormones and Colon Cancer study. WHI: we thank the WHI investigators and staff for their dedication, and the study participants for making the program possible. A full listing of WHI investigators can be found at https://cleo.whi.org/researchers/Documents%20%20Write%20a%20Paper/WHI%20Investigator%20Short20List.pdf. CORECT: The CORECT Study was supported by the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health (NCI/NIH), U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (grant numbers U19 CA148107, R01 CA81488, P30 CA014089, R01 CA197350; P01 CA196569; and R01 CA201407) and National Institutes of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health (grant number T32 ES013678). The ATBC Study was supported by the US Public Health Service contracts (N01-CN-45165, N01-RC-45035, N01-RC-37004, and HHSN261201000006C) from the National Cancer Institute. The Cancer Prevention Study-II Nutrition Cohort is funded by the American Cancer Society. ColoCare: This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers R01 CA189184, U01 CA206110, 2P30CA015704-40 (Gilliland)), the Matthias Lackas-Foundation, the German Consortium for Translational Cancer Research, and the EU TRANSCAN initiative. Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO): funding for GECCO was provided by the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (grant numbers U01 CA137088, R01 CA059045, and U01 CA164930). This research was funded in part through the NIH/NCI Cancer Center Support Grant P30 CA015704. The Colon Cancer Family Registry (CFR) Illumina GWAS was supported by funding from the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health (grant numbers U01 CA122839, R01 CA143247). The Colon CFR/CORECT Affymetrix Axiom GWAS and OncoArray GWAS were supported by funding from National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health (grant number U19 CA148107 to S.G.). The Colon CFR participant recruitment and collection of data and biospecimens used in this study were supported by the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health (grant number UM1 CA167551) and through cooperative agreements with the following Colon CFR centers: Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (NCI/NIH grant numbers U01 CA074778 and U01/U24 CA097735), USC Consortium Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (NCI/NIH grant numbers U01/U24 CA074799), Mayo Clinic Cooperative Family Registry for Colon Cancer Studies (NCI/NIH grant number U01/U24 CA074800), Ontario Familial Colorectal Cancer Registry (NCI/NIH grant number U01/U24 CA074783), Seattle Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (NCI/NIH grant number U01/U24 CA074794), and University of Hawaii Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (NCI/NIH grant number U01/U24 CA074806), Additional support for case ascertainment was provided from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute to Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (Control Nos. N01-CN-67009 and N01-PC-35142, and Contract No. HHSN2612013000121), the Hawai'i Department of Health (Control Nos. N01-PC-67001 and N01-PC-35137, and Contract No. HHSN26120100037C, and the California Department of Public Health (contracts HHSN261201000035C awarded to the University of Southern California, and the following state cancer registries: A.Z., C.O., M.N., N.C., N.H., and by the Victoria Cancer Registry and Ontario Cancer Registry. ESTHER/VERDI was supported by grants from the Baden–Württemberg Ministry of Science, Research and Arts and the German Cancer Aid. MCCS cohort recruitment was funded by VicHealth and Cancer Council Victoria. GALEON: FIS Intrasalud (PI13/01136). The MCCS was further supported by Australian NHMRC grants 509348, 209057, 251553, and 504711 and by infrastructure provided by Cancer Council Victoria. Cases and their vital status were ascertained through the Victorian Cancer Registry (VCR) and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), including the National Death Index and the Australian Cancer Database. MSKCC: the work at Sloan Kettering in New York was supported by the Robert and Kate Niehaus Center for Inherited Cancer Genomics and the Romeo Milio Foundation. Moffitt: This work was supported by funding from the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers R01 CA189184, P30 CA076292), Florida Department of Health Bankhead-Coley Grant 09BN-13, and the University of South Florida Oehler Foundation. Moffitt contributions were supported in part by the Total Cancer Care Initiative, Collaborative Data Services Core, and Tissue Core at the H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center & Research Institute, a National Cancer Institute-designated Comprehensive Cancer Center (grant number P30 CA076292). SEARCH: Cancer Research UK (C490/A16561). The Spanish study was supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III, co-funded by FEDER funds –a way to build Europe– (grants PI14-613 and PI09-1286), Catalan Government DURSI (grant 2014SGR647), and Junta de Castilla y León (grant LE22A10-2). The Swedish Low-risk Colorectal Cancer Study: the study was supported by grants from the Swedish research council; K2015-55 × -22674-01-4, K2008-55 × -20157-03-3, K2006-72 × -20157-01-2 and the Stockholm County Council (ALF project). CIDR genotyping for the Oncoarray was conducted under contract 268201200008I (to K.D.), through grant 101HG007491-01 (to C.I.A.). The Norris Cotton Cancer Center - P30CA023108, The Quantitative Biology Research Institute - P20GM103534, and the Coordinating Center for Screen Detected Lesions - U01CA196386 also supported efforts of C.I.A. This work was also supported by the National Cancer Institute (grant numbers U01 CA1817700, R01 CA144040). ASTERISK: a Hospital Clinical Research Program (PHRC) and supported by the Regional Council of Pays de la Loire, the Groupement des Entreprises Françaises dans la Lutte contre le Cancer (GEFLUC), the Association Anne de Bretagne Génétique and the Ligue Régionale Contre le Cancer (LRCC). COLO2&3: National Institutes of Health (grant number R01 CA060987). DACHS: This work was supported by the German Research Council (BR 1704/6-1, BR 1704/6-3, BR 1704/6-4, CH 117/1-1, HO 5117/2-1, HE 5998/2-1, KL 2354/3-1, RO 2270/8-1, and BR 1704/17-1), the Interdisciplinary Research Program of the National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT), Germany, and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (01KH0404, 01ER0814, 01ER0815, 01ER1505A, and 01ER1505B). DALS: National Institutes of Health (grant number R01 CA048998 to M.L.S). HPFS is supported by National Institutes of Health (grant numbers P01 CA055075, UM1 CA167552, R01 137178, and P50 CA127003), NHS by the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers UM1 CA186107, R01 CA137178, P01 CA087969, and P50 CA127003), NHSII by the National Institutes of Health (grant numbers R01 050385CA and UM1 CA176726), and PHS by the National Institutes of Health (grant number R01 CA042182). MEC: National Institutes of Health (grant numbers R37 CA054281, P01 CA033619, and R01 CA063464). OFCCR: National Institutes of Health, through funding allocated to the Ontario Registry for Studies of Familial Colorectal Cancer (grant number U01 CA074783); see Colon CFR section above. As subset of ARCTIC, OFCCR is supported by a GL2 grant from the Ontario Research Fund, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and the Cancer Risk Evaluation (CaRE) Program grant from the Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute. T.J.H. and B.W.Z. are recipients of Senior Investigator Awards from the Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, through generous support from the Ontario Ministry of Research and Innovation. PLCO: Intramural Research Program of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics and supported by contracts from the Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS. Additionally, a subset of control samples was genotyped as part of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) Prostate Cancer GWAS, Colon CGEMS pancreatic cancer scan (PanScan), and the Lung Cancer and Smoking study. The prostate and PanScan study datasets were accessed with appropriate approval through the dbGaP online resource (http://cgems.cancer.gov/data/) accession numbers phs000207.v1.p1 and phs000206.v3.p2, respectively, and the lung datasets were accessed from the dbGaP website (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gap) through accession number phs000093.v2.p2. Funding for the Lung Cancer and Smoking study was provided by National Institutes of Health (NIH), Genes, Environment and Health Initiative (GEI) Z01 CP 010200, NIH U01 HG004446, and NIH GEI U01 HG 004438. For the lung study, the GENEVA Coordinating Center provided assistance with genotype cleaning and general study coordination, 23 and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Inherited Disease Research conducted genotyping. PMH: National Institutes of Health (grant number R01 CA076366). VITAL: National Institutes of Health (grant number K05-CA154337). WHI: The WHI program is funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services through contracts HHSN268201600018C, HHSN268201600001C, HHSN268201600002C, HHSN268201600003C, and HHSN268201600004C. The head and neck cancer genome-wide association analyses: The study was supported by NIH/NCI: P50 CA097190, and P30 CA047904, Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute (no. 020214) and Cancer Care Ontario Research Chair to R.H. The Princess Margaret Hospital Head and Neck Cancer Translational Research Program is funded by the Wharton family, Joe's Team, Gordon Tozer, Bruce Galloway and the Elia family. Geoffrey Liu was supported by the Posluns Family Fund and the Lusi Wong Family Fund at the Princess Margaret Foundation, and the Alan B. Brown Chair in Molecular Genomics. This publication presents data from Head and Neck 5000 (H&N5000). H&N5000 was a component of independent research funded by the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research scheme (RP-PG-0707-10034). The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. Human papillomavirus (HPV) in H&N5000 serology was supported by a Cancer Research UK Programme Grant, the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme (grant number: C18281/A19169). National Cancer Institute (R01-CA90731); National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (P30ES10126). The authors thank all the members of the GENCAPO team/The Head and Neck Genome Project (GENCAPO) was supported by the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) (Grant numbers 04/12054-9 and 10/51168-0). CPS-II recruitment and maintenance is supported with intramural research funding from the American Cancer Society. Genotyping performed at the Center for Inherited Disease Research (CIDR) was funded through the U.S. National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (NIDCR) grant 1 × 01HG007780-0. The University of Pittsburgh head and neck cancer case-control study is supported by National Institutes of Health grants P50 CA097190 and P30 CA047904. The Carolina Head and Neck Cancer Study (CHANCE) was supported by the National Cancer Institute (R01-CA90731). The Head and Neck Genome Project (GENCAPO) was supported by the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) (Grant numbers 04/12054-9 and 10/51168-0). The authors thank all the members of the GENCAPO team. The HN5000 study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research scheme (RP-PG-0707-10034), the views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. The Toronto study was funded by the Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute (020214) and the National Cancer Institute (U19-CA148127) and the Cancer Care Ontario Research Chair. The alcohol-related cancers and genetic susceptibility study in Europe (ARCAGE) was funded by the European Commission's 5th Framework Program (QLK1-2001-00182), the Italian Association for Cancer Research, Compagnia di San Paolo/FIRMS, Region Piemonte, and Padova University (CPDA057222). The Rome Study was supported by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC) IG 2011 10491 and IG2013 14220 to S.B., and Fondazione Veronesi to S.B. The IARC Latin American study was funded by the European Commission INCO-DC programme (IC18-CT97-0222), with additional funding from Fondo para la Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (Argentina) and the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (01/01768-2). We thank Leticia Fernandez, Instituto Nacional de Oncologia y Radiobiologia, La Habana, Cuba and Sergio and Rosalina Koifman, for their efforts with the IARC Latin America study São Paulo center. The IARC Central Europe study was supported by European Commission's INCO-COPERNICUS Program (IC15- CT98-0332), NIH/National Cancer Institute grant CA92039, and the World Cancer Research Foundation grant WCRF 99A28. The IARC Oral Cancer Multicenter study was funded by grant S06 96 202489 05F02 from Europe against Cancer; grants FIS 97/0024, FIS 97/0662, and BAE 01/5013 from Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias, Spain; the UICC Yamagiwa-Yoshida Memorial International Cancer Study; the National Cancer Institute of Canada; Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro; and the Pan-American Health Organization. Coordination of the EPIC study is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The lung cancer genome-wide association analyses: Transdisciplinary Research for Cancer in Lung (TRICL) of the International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO) was supported by (U19-CA148127, CA148127S1, U19CA203654, and Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas RR170048). The ILCCO data harmonization is supported by Cancer Care Ontario Research Chair of Population Studies to R. H. and Lunenfeld-Tanenbaum Research Institute, Sinai Health System. The TRICL-ILCCO OncoArray was supported by in-kind genotyping by the Centre for Inherited Disease Research (26820120008i-0-26800068-1). The CAPUA study was supported by FIS-FEDER/Spain grant numbers FIS-01/310, FIS-PI03-0365, and FIS-07-BI060604, FICYT/Asturias grant numbers FICYT PB02-67 and FICYT IB09-133, and the University Institute of Oncology (IUOPA), of the University of Oviedo and the Ciber de Epidemiologia y Salud Pública. CIBERESP, SPAIN. The work performed in the CARET study was supported by the National Institute of Health/National Cancer Institute: UM1 CA167462 (PI: Goodman), National Institute of Health UO1-CA6367307 (PIs Omen, Goodman); National Institute of Health R01 CA111703 (PI Chen), National Institute of Health 5R01 CA151989-01A1(PI Doherty). The Liverpool Lung project is supported by the Roy Castle Lung Cancer Foundation. The Harvard Lung Cancer Study was supported by the NIH (National Cancer Institute) grants CA092824, CA090578, CA074386. The Multi-ethnic Cohort Study was partially supported by NIH Grants CA164973, CA033619, CA63464, and CA148127. The work performed in MSH-PMH study was supported by The Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute (020214), Ontario Institute of Cancer and Cancer Care Ontario Chair Award to R.J.H. and G.L. and the Alan Brown Chair and Lusi Wong Programs at the Princess Margaret Hospital Foundation. NJLCS was funded by the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (81230067), the National Key Basic Research Program Grant (2011CB503805), the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390543). The Norway study was supported by Norwegian Cancer Society, Norwegian Research Council. The Shanghai Cohort Study (SCS) was supported by National Institutes of Health R01 CA144034 (PI: Yuan) and UM1 CA182876 (PI: Yuan). The Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) was supported by National Institutes of Health R01 CA144034 (PI: Yuan) and UM1 CA182876 (PI: Yuan). The work in TLC study has been supported in part the James & Esther King Biomedical Research Program (09KN-15), National Institutes of Health Specialized Programs of Research Excellence (SPORE) Grant (P50 CA119997), and by a Cancer Center Support Grant (CCSG) at the H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, an NCI designated Comprehensive Cancer Center (grant number P30-CA76292). The Vanderbilt Lung Cancer Study—BioVU dataset used for the analyses described was obtained from Vanderbilt University Medical Center's BioVU, which is supported by institutional funding, the 1S10RR025141-01 instrumentation award, and by the Vanderbilt CTSA grant UL1TR000445 from NCATS/NIH. Dr. Aldrich was supported by NIH/National Cancer Institute K07CA172294 (PI: Aldrich) and Dr. Bush was supported by NHGRI/NIH U01HG004798 (PI: Crawford). The Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) was supported by the Chief Physician Johan Boserup and Lise Boserup Fund, the Danish Medical Research Council and Herlev Hospital. The NELCS study: Grant Number P20RR018787 from the National Center for Research Resources (NCRR), a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). The Kentucky Lung Cancer Research Initiative was supported by the Department of Defense [Congressionally Directed Medical Research Program, U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command Program] under award number: 10153006 (W81XWH-11-1-0781). Views and opinions of, and endorsements by the author(s) do not reflect those of the US Army or the Department of Defense. This research was also supported by unrestricted infrastructure funds from the UK Center for Clinical and Translational Science, NIH grant UL1TR000117 and Markey Cancer Center NCI Cancer Center Support Grant (P30 CA177558) Shared Resource Facilities: Cancer Research Informatics, Biospecimen and Tissue Procurement, and Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. The M.D. Anderson Cancer Center study was supported in part by grants from the NIH (P50 CA070907, R01 CA176568) (to X.W.), Cancer Prevention & Research Institute of Texas (RP130502) (to X.W.), and The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center institutional support for the Center for Translational and Public Health Genomics. The deCODE study of smoking and nicotine dependence was funded in part by a grant from NIDA (R01- DA017932). The study in Lodz center was partially funded by Nofer Institute of Occupational Medicine, under task NIOM 10.13: Predictors of mortality from non-small cell lung cancer—field study. Genetic sharing analysis was funded by NIH grant CA194393. The research undertaken by M.D.T., L.V.W., and M.S.A. was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. M.D.T. holds a Medical Research Council Senior Clinical Fellowship (G0902313). The work to assemble the FTND GWAS meta-analysis was supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) grant number R01 DA035825 (Principal Investigator [PI]: DBH). The study populations included COGEND (dbGaP phs000092.v1.p1 and phs000404.v1.p1), COPDGene (dbGaP phs000179.v3.p2), deCODE Genetics, EAGLE (dbGaP phs000093.vs.p2), and SAGE. dbGaP phs000092.v1.p1). See Hancock et al. Transl Psychiatry 2015 (PMCID: PMC4930126) for the full listing of funding sources and other acknowledgments. The Resource for the Study of Lung Cancer Epidemiology in North Trent (ReSoLuCENT)study was funded by the Sheffield Hospitals Charity, Sheffield Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre and Weston Park Hospital Cancer Charity. The ovarian cancer genome-wide association analysis: The Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) is supported by a grant from the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund thanks to donations by the family and friends of Kathryn Sladek Smith (PPD/RPCI.07). The scientific development and funding for this project were in part supported by the US National Cancer Institute GAME-ON Post-GWAS Initiative (U19-CA148112). This study made use of data generated by the Wellcome Trust Case Control consortium that was funded by the Wellcome Trust under award 076113. The results published here are in part based upon data generated by The Cancer Genome Atlas Pilot Project established by the National Cancer Institute and National Human Genome Research Institute (dbGap accession number phs000178.v8.p7). The OCAC OncoArray genotyping project was funded through grants from the U.S. National Institutes of Health (CA1X01HG007491-01 (C.I.A.), U19-CA148112 (T.A.S.), R01-CA149429 (C.M.P.), and R01-CA058598 (M.T.G.); Canadian Institutes of Health Research (MOP-86727 (L.E.K.) and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund (A.B.). The COGS project was funded through a European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme grant (agreement number 223175 - HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) and through a grant from the U.S. National Institutes of Health (R01-CA122443 (E.L.G)). Funding for individual studies: AAS: National Institutes of Health (RO1-CA142081); AOV: The Canadian Institutes for Health Research (MOP-86727); AUS: The Australian Ovarian Cancer Study Group was supported by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command (DAMD17-01-1-0729), National Health & Medical Research Council of Australia (199600, 400413 and 400281), Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania and Cancer Foundation of Western Australia (Multi-State Applications 191, 211, and 182). The Australian Ovarian Cancer Study gratefully acknowledges additional support from Ovarian Cancer Australia and the Peter MacCallum Foundation; BAV: ELAN Funds of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg; BEL: National Kankerplan; BGS: Breast Cancer Now, Institute of Cancer Research; BVU: Vanderbilt CTSA grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH)/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) (ULTR000445); CAM: National Institutes of Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre and Cancer Research UK Cambridge Cancer Centre; CHA: Innovative Research Team in University (PCSIRT) in China (IRT1076); CNI: Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PI12/01319); Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (SAF2012); COE: Department of Defense (W81XWH-11-2-0131); CON: National Institutes of Health (R01-CA063678, R01-CA074850; and R01-CA080742); DKE: Ovarian Cancer Research Fund; DOV: National Institutes of Health R01-CA112523 and R01-CA87538; EMC: Dutch Cancer Society (EMC 2014-6699); EPC: The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); ERC-2009-AdG 232997 and Nordforsk, Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/A16491 and C8221/A19170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom); GER: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Programme of Clinical Biomedical Research (01 GB 9401) and the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ); GRC: This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund—ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF)—Research Funding Program of the General Secretariat for Research & Technology: SYN11_10_19 NBCA. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund; GRR: Roswell Park Cancer Institute Alliance Foundation, P30 CA016056; HAW: U.S. National Institutes of Health (R01-CA58598, N01-CN-55424, and N01-PC-67001); HJO: Intramural funding; Rudolf-Bartling Foundation; HMO: Intramural funding; Rudolf-Bartling Foundation; HOC: Helsinki University Research Fund; HOP: Department of Defense (DAMD17-02-1-0669) and NCI (K07-CA080668, R01-CA95023, P50-CA159981 MO1-RR000056 R01-CA126841); HUO: Intramural funding; Rudolf-Bartling Foundation; JGO: JSPS KAKENHI grant; JPN: Grant-in-Aid for the Third Term Comprehensive 10-Year Strategy for Cancer Control from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; KRA: This study (Ko-EVE) was supported by a grant from the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), and the National R&D Program for Cancer Control, Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (HI16C1127; 0920010); LAX: American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (SIOP-06-258-01-COUN) and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Grant UL1TR000124; LUN: ERC-2011-AdG 294576-risk factors cancer, Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council, Beta Kamprad Foundation; MAC: National Institutes of Health (R01-CA122443, P30-CA15083, P50-CA136393); Mayo Foundation; Minnesota Ovarian Cancer Alliance; Fred C. and Katherine B. Andersen Foundation; Fraternal Order of Eagles; MAL: Funding for this study was provided by research grant R01- CA61107 from the National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, research grant 94 222 52 from the Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark; and the Mermaid I project; MAS: Malaysian Ministry of Higher Education (UM.C/HlR/MOHE/06) and Cancer Research Initiatives Foundation; MAY: National Institutes of Health (R01-CA122443, P30-CA15083, and P50-CA136393); Mayo Foundation; Minnesota Ovarian Cancer Alliance; Fred C. and Katherine B. Andersen Foundation; MCC: Cancer Council Victoria, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC) grants number 209057, 251533, 396414, and 504715; MDA: DOD Ovarian Cancer Research Program (W81XWH-07-0449); MEC: NIH (CA54281, CA164973, CA63464); MOF: Moffitt Cancer Center, Merck Pharmaceuticals, the state of Florida, Hillsborough County, and the city of Tampa; NCO: National Institutes of Health (R01-CA76016) and the Department of Defense (DAMD17-02-1-0666); NEC: National Institutes of Health R01-CA54419 and P50-CA105009 and Department of Defense W81XWH-10-1-02802; NHS: UM1 CA186107, P01 CA87969, R01 CA49449, R01-CA67262, UM1 CA176726; NJO: National Cancer Institute (NIH-K07 CA095666, R01-CA83918, NIH-K22-CA138563, and P30-CA072720) and the Cancer Institute of New Jersey; If Sara Olson and/or Irene Orlow is a co-author, please add NCI CCSG award (P30-CA008748) to the funding sources; NOR: Helse Vest, The Norwegian Cancer Society, The Research Council of Norway; NTH: Radboud University Medical Centre; OPL: National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (APP1025142) and Brisbane Women's Club; ORE: OHSU Foundation; OVA: This work was supported by Canadian Institutes of Health Research grant (MOP-86727) and by NIH/NCI 1 R01CA160669-01A1; PLC: Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute; POC: Pomeranian Medical University; POL: Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute; PVD: Canadian Cancer Society and Cancer Research Society GRePEC Program; RBH: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; RMH: Cancer Research UK, Royal Marsden Hospital; RPC: National Institute of Health (P50-CA159981, R01-CA126841); SEA: Cancer Research UK (C490/A10119 C490/A10124); UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres at the University of Cambridge; SIS: NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Z01-ES044005 and Z01-ES049033; SMC: The bbSwedish Research Council-SIMPLER infrastructure; the Swedish Cancer Foundation; SON: National Health Research and Development Program, Health Canada, grant 6613-1415-53; SRO: Cancer Research UK (C536/A13086, C536/A6689) and Imperial Experimental Cancer Research Centre (C1312/A15589); STA: NIH grants U01 CA71966 and U01 CA69417; SWE: Swedish Cancer foundation, WeCanCureCancer and VårKampMotCancer foundation; SWH: NIH (NCI) grant R37-CA070867; TBO: National Institutes of Health (R01-CA106414-A2), American Cancer Society (CRTG-00-196-01-CCE), Department of Defense (DAMD17-98-1-8659), Celma Mastery Ovarian Cancer Foundation; TOR: NIH grants R01-CA063678 and R01 CA063682; UCI: NIH R01-CA058860 and the Lon V Smith Foundation grant LVS39420; UHN: Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation-Bridge for the Cure; UKO: The UKOPS study was funded by The Eve Appeal (The Oak Foundation) and supported by the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre; UKR: Cancer Research UK (C490/A6187), UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centres at the University of Cambridge; USC: P01CA17054, P30CA14089, R01CA61132, N01PC67010, R03CA113148, R03CA115195, N01CN025403, and California Cancer Research Program (00-01389V-20170, 2II0200); VAN: BC Cancer Foundation, VGH & UBC Hospital Foundation; VTL: NIH K05-CA154337; WMH: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Enabling Grants ID 310670 & ID 628903. Cancer Institute NSW Grants 12/RIG/1-17 & 15/RIG/1-16; WOC: National Science Centren (N N301 5645 40). The Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Warsaw, Poland. The University of Cambridge has received salary support for PDPP from the NHS in the East of England through the Clinical Academia Reserve. The prostate cancer genome-wide association analyses: we pay tribute to Brian Henderson, who was a driving force behind the OncoArray project, for his vision and leadership, and who sadly passed away before seeing its fruition. We also thank the individuals who participated in these studies enabling this work. The ELLIPSE/PRACTICAL (http//:practical.icr.ac.uk) prostate cancer consortium and his collaborating partners were supported by multiple funding mechanisms enabling this current work. ELLIPSE/PRACTICAL Genotyping of the OncoArray was funded by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) (U19 CA148537 for ELucidating Loci Involved in Prostate Cancer SuscEptibility (ELLIPSE) project and X01HG007492 to the Center for Inherited Disease Research (CIDR) under contract number HHSN268201200008I). Additional analytical support was provided by NIH NCI U01 CA188392 (F.R.S.). Funding for the iCOGS infrastructure came from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement n° 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A 10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692, and C8197/A16565), the National Institutes of Health (CA128978) and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065, and 1U19 CA148112; the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defense (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. This work was supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement n° 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175), Cancer Research UK Grants C5047/A7357, C1287/A10118, C1287/A16563, C5047/A3354, C5047/A10692, C16913/A6135, C5047/A21332 and The National Institute of Health (NIH) Cancer Post-Cancer GWAS initiative grant: No. 1 U19 CA148537-01 (the GAME-ON initiative). We also thank the following for funding support: The Institute of Cancer Research and The Everyman Campaign, The Prostate Cancer Research Foundation, Prostate Research Campaign UK (now Prostate Action), The Orchid Cancer Appeal, The National Cancer Research Network UK, and The National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) UK. We are grateful for support of NIHR funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. The Prostate Cancer Program of Cancer Council Victoria also acknowledge grant support from The National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (126402, 209057, 251533, 396414, 450104, 504700, 504702, 504715, 623204, 940394, and 614296), VicHealth, Cancer Council Victoria, The Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia, The Whitten Foundation, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Tattersall's. E.A.O., D.M.K., and E.M.K. acknowledge the Intramural Program of the National Human Genome Research Institute for their support. The BPC3 was supported by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute (cooperative agreements U01-CA98233 to D.J.H., U01-CA98710 to S.M.G., U01-CA98216 to E.R., and U01-CA98758 to B.E.H., and Intramural Research Program of NIH/National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics). CAPS GWAS study was supported by the Swedish Cancer Foundation (grant no 09-0677, 11-484, 12-823), the Cancer Risk Prediction Center (CRisP; www.crispcenter.org), a Linneus Centre (Contract ID 70867902) financed by the Swedish Research Council, Swedish Research Council (grant no K2010-70 × -20430-04-3, 2014-2269). The Hannover Prostate Cancer Study was supported by the Lower Saxonian Cancer Society. PEGASUS was supported by the Intramural Research Program, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. RAPPER was supported by the NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Center, Cancer Research UK (C147/A25254, C1094/A18504) and the EU's 7th Framework Programme Grant/Agreement no 60186. Overall: this research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource (application number 16549). NHS is supported by UM1 CA186107 (NHS cohort infrastructure grant), P01 CA87969, and R01 CA49449. NHSII is supported by UM1 CA176726 (NHSII cohort infrastructure grant), and R01-CA67262. A.L.K. is supported by R01 MH107649. We would like to thank the participants and staff of the NHS and NHSII for their valuable contributions as well as the following state cancer registries for their help: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NE, NH, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, TX, VA, WA, WY. The authors assume full responsibility for analyses and interpretation of these data. ; Peer Reviewed

Striking, overtime bans and refusing to carry out certain tasks[1] are collective forms of actions that can arise from workplace disputes. These industrial actions are of fundamental importance: the temporary halt in work production leverages a demand to enforce workers' rights. Despite this, the UK does not recognise the legal right to withdraw labour. Instead, the UK's "right to strike" is said to depend on a complex statutory scheme[2]. This article will analyse a variety of sources, "statutes such as TULRCA 1992, the common law, Convention rights, and relevant case law[3]", to determine whether the UK's "right to strike" "is a classic instance of a 'legislated' right[4]" or if it is merely a "slogan/legal metaphor[5]". [1] Hugh Collins, Aileen McColgan and Keith D Ewing,Labour Law(2nd edn, Cambridge University press 2019) pg.706. [2] Alan Bogg and Ruth Dukes, 'Statutory Interpretation and The Limits of a Human Rights Approach: Royal Mail Group Ltd V Communication Workers Union' (2020) 49(3) Industrial Law Journal pg.478. [3] Ibid, pg.478. [4] Ibid, pg.478. [5] Metrobus v UNITE [2009] EWCA Civ 829 (Maurice Kay LJ). - 'In truth, the "right to strike" in the UK depends for its realisation on a complex statutory scheme. Even in jurisdictions where the right to strike is specified textually in a constitutional document, such a complex right must be operationalised through labour statutes. It is a classic instance of a "legislated" right. Since the enactment of the Human Rights Act, and the evolving jurisprudence of the ECtHR, UK law may now be described as protecting a right to strike albeit one that is pieced together from a variety of sources: statutes such as TULRCA, the common law, Convention rights, and relevant case law.'[1] Does this statement accurately encapsulate the UK law on the 'right to strike'? How do the different sources of law interact and what factors determine the correct balance to be reached between competing interests in regulating industrial action? Use case law, statute, legal commentary and social science material in your answer and provide illustrations to support your analysis. In line with socialism and Professor Beverly Silver's assertions, capitalism is established upon 'two contradictory tendencies': 'crises of profitability and crises of social legitimacy'.[2] This 'inherent labour-capital'[3] struggle is reflected within the UK's hostile regulation of industrial action. The courts' and legislature's ideological approaches towards the collective right to withdraw labour unanimously and substantially favours economic growth above social welfare.[4] Striking, overtime bans, and refusing to carry out certain tasks are collective forms of actions that can arise from workplace disputes.[5] These disputes typically occur because employers are unwilling to negotiate with employees and workers about their working terms or conditions. Undeniably, the duration – and the aftermath – of the collective action results in financial losses to the business and affect innocent third parties (i.e. the general public).[6] Therefore, in order to appease and 'bring the labour under control', the capital would 'have to make concessions [i.e. comply with the strikers' new terms], which provoke crises of profitability'.[7] However, the loss suffered by a business[8] during and after industrial action is justified on two persuasive grounds. The first ground identified by Gwyneth Pitt is the human right aspect.[9] To restrict the right to strike would be akin to the horrific period of slavery,[10] where man had no power to withdraw his labour. This justification is recognising the inequalities in bargaining power between employer and employee.[11] This inequality has been further escalated by the growth of the modern-day unstable gig economy; one in nine UK workers are in precarious work.[12] This form of work has limited protection and much lower salaries.[13] Hence, a subsequent ground for the justification of withdrawal of labour is the equilibrium argument. The power of the employer and their actions can only be matched and questioned by a 'concerted stoppage of work'.[14] Essentially, the right to strike is more than the withdrawal of labour: it is also the encompassing 'right to free expression, association, assembly and power'.[15] Yet there is 'no positive legal right to strike in the UK'.[16] Instead, 'the "right to strike" in the UK depends for its realisation on a complex statutory scheme'.[17] In contrast to its neighbouring European countries' (Spain and Italy) jurisdictions 'where the right to strike is specified textually in a constitutional document', the UK law 'protects a right to strike … from a variety of sources: statutes such as TULRCA, the common law, Convention rights, and relevant case law'.[18] The accuracy of Bogg and Dukes' encapsulation of the UK law on the 'right to strike' and how the different sources of law interact will be subsequently discussed. Common Law Judiciary While Spain[19] and Italy[20] protect the right to strike by suspending the contract of employment during industrial action, this contract is broken under English law.[21] This is because the English common law does not confer a right to strike,[22] hence 'the rigour of the common law applies in the form of a breach of contract on part of the strikers and economic torts … [for] the organisers and their union'.[23] It is tortious and indefensible[24] to induce an individual to breach their contract of employment.[25] This principle was established in Lumley v Gye,[26] and this liability extends to trade unions in the context of industrial action.[27] Additionally, there are two further economic torts trade unions can be held liable for: liability for conspiracy to injure (Quinn v Leathem)[28] and causing loss by unlawful means. UntilOBG Ltd v Allan, Douglas, and others v Hello! Ltd,[29] the 'tort of procuring a breach of contract had been ["blurred"[30] and] extended [to be a wider] tort of unlawful interference with contractual relations'.[31] These torts were later distinguished and separated in the House of Lord's (HoL) judgment of OBG v Allan. While it is not often, the courts are encouraged to distinguish and introduce new torts. The HoL in OBG v Allan subsequently outlined the distinguishing elements between unlawful means and the tort of procuring a breach of contract. The tort of procuring a breach of contract is an accessory liability. Whilst the tort of unlawful means is a 'primary liability that is not dependent on the third party having committed a wrong against the claimant'.[32] Yet, despite the tort differences, the HoL confirmed that the same act could give rise to liability under both unlawful interference and procuring a breach of contract.[33] This clarification and the development of unlawful interferences as a separate liability has notably accommodated employers in holding trade unions liable for more than one tort. The OBG v Allan judgment is significant for discussing industrial action for two notable reasons. The first is that it confirms the judiciary's 'uncontrolled power'[34] in developing and 'defining torts boundaries on a case-to-case basis.[35] This power is 'ensur[ing] that trade unions cannot provide a lawful excuse or justification for their actions'[36]; trade unions are ultimately 'stood naked and unprotected at the altar of the common law'.[37] The insufficiency of protection for trade unions under the common law exhibits the judiciary's biased and hostile ideology towards industrial action.[38] This subsequently aligns with the following observation: the courts favour economic profits. This is discerned by the extent to which the contemporary judiciary extends protection for commercial bodies.[39] The primary function of English tort law was to protect physical integrity and property rights; tort law was never concerned with the protection of economic interests.[40] Nor had the common law ever been historically exercised to 'legitimately control aspects of the economy'[41] and yet OBG v Allan demonstrates the extent to which this has now changed. The judiciary has extensively and needlessly stretched the common law and its torts[42] to protect 'already powerful organisations'.[43] Hence, from the perspective of trade unions and their members, the common law's (inadequate) protection for the 'right to strike' has been, undeniably, very disappointing. Statutes Legislature One of the major problems facing trade unions was the 'exposure of their funds to legal action by employers'[44]; in 1901, Taff Vale Railway Co successfully sued the Amalgamated Society of Railway Servants union for £42,000.[45] This sum is equivalent to £5,196,328.39 today. This verdict, in effect, eliminated 'the strike as a weapon of organized labour'.[46] Naturally, workers turned to political parties for redress. The concern and advocacy for trade union reform accounted for 59% of the winning Liberal party's election manifesto.[47] The Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Henry Campbell-Bannerman, provided unions with wide immunity against any tortious liability arising from trade disputes under The Trade Disputes Act (TDA) 1906. Although this Act did not introduce a 'legislated right' for industrial action,[48] this statute effectively recognised the vulnerability of unions under the common law by 'secur[ing] a [statutory] freedom' instead. [49] The TDA is one of the 'mostimportantpieces oflabour legislationever passed by a British Parliament'[50]; it effectively 'kept the courts at a minimum'[51] and neutralised the most obvious adverse effects of the Taff Vale judgment. The 'sympathetic politicians' were 'periodically reconstructing' the role of the 'class-conscious', profit-favouring judiciary.[52] The outcome of the 1906 general election 'served the unions' interests well'[53] and it continued to for 65 years. The 'long enjoyed'[54] immunity of trade unions for liability in tort was reduced to partial immunity under the Thatcher government (1979-90). There is a 'scale of government ideology' which ranges from 'fully participative' to 'fully authoritative',[55] and the Thatcher government was the undoubtable latter. The Conservative ideology and economists, such as FA Hayek, viewed trade unions as an obstacle to economic growth.[56] This perception was heightened by the Winter of Discontent (1978-79): a period characterised by widespread of strikes in response to the Labour government's wage cap (to maintain falling inflation).[57] Subsequently, Thatcher's government further justified the re-introduction of liability for trade unions upon the succeeding Green Papers: the 1981 Trade Union Immunities[58] and the 1989 Trade Unions and their Members.[59] Both papers outlined concerns regarding democracy, rights, and freedom of trade union members; 'too often in recent years it has seemed that employees have been called out on strike by their unions without proper consultation and sometimes against their express wishes'.[60] Accordingly, the Thatcher government introduced legislation that prior Conservative governments were afeard of passing: the Employment Act 1980, Trade Union Act 1984, and Trade Union Reform and Employment Rights Act 1993. These re-introduced vulnerability and high costs for unions. Under the Employment Rights Act 1980, 'trade-dispute' was re-defined, statutory liabilities were introduced and unions were exposed to injunctions and claims for damages. However, upon complying with the stringent balloting requirements (from secret ballot to the requirement for all ballots to be postal) in the 1984 and 1993 Acts, the dispute would be deemed lawful.[61] It is expensive for unions to comply and evidence the fulfilled balloting requirements, but if lawful union members are statutorily protected from unfair dismissals and injunctions.[62] While this is a brief summary of the Acts, these restrictive measures offer an insight into the Thatcher government's success in exercising its agenda of restricting the lawfulness of industrial action by limiting its previously protected scope and purposes. Subsequently, the process of placing further controls on trade unions continued into the 21st century.[63] The 2015 Conservative government introduced the 'draconian'[64] Trade Union Act 2016 (TUA) – the most significant union legislation since the Employment Act 1980. The TUA introduced a minimum threshold of eligible members to vote in the ballot (at least 50% turnout and 50% voting in favour).[65] Moreover, in the instance the members are engaged in 'important public services',[66] 40% of all members entitled to vote must have voted in support of the industrial action. These stringent procedural requirements have to be strictly followed for a strike to be lawful.[67] Oddly, there was no pressing need to introduce these restrictive measures.[68] There were no significant problems in industrial relations at the time (ie, Winter of Discontent) nor any significant 'pressure from business for further laws on strikes',[69] but the Conservative government justified these 2016 measures through the findings of Bruce Carr QC and Ed Holmes.[70] The Government submitted the Carr Review to indicate a consistent pattern of union bullying workers, and yet Carr himself 'did not contend his findings to be a sufficient basis' for influencing the TUA.[71] Instead, the true motivations behind the government's 2016 legislative programme are observed by the 'striking resemblance'[72] to Ed Holmes Modernising Industrial Relations (MIR) paper.[73] The policy paper daringly questioned the necessity of protecting industrial action by reflecting on the development of employment tribunals and discussing the economic consequences of strikes. The same 'free-market economic theory' that underpinned the MIR's recommendations 'drove' the pragmatically restrictive and economically influenced 2016 statute developments.[74] The substance of today's statute in protecting trade unions 'is far removed and much weaker than the position established in 1906'.[75] Since the Henry Campbell-Bannerman leadership, trade union membership has declined by more than half due to the 'three successive Conservative governments [who] have enacted labour legislation opposed by unions'.[76] It appears the deep-rooted ideology of the political party in power influences the legislative steps for protecting trade unions.[77] Therefore, the extent of the Conservative government's 'authoritarian, class-biased and oppressive'[78] industrial action policies will be exemplified and 'more evident than they are today when a Labour government is elected again'.[79] Judiciary While the likes of Maurice Kay LJ and Lord Neuberger MR 'characterised the statutory immunities as limited exceptions to the common law' to justify interpreting the statute provisions 'strictly against the trade union', the court's overall response to industrial action 'has been more mixed'.[80] The court in Merkur Island Shipping v Laughton[81] developed a three-part test to examine the legality of industrial action. This test encapsulates the substantive and procedural requirements for a lawful strike whilst observing the intertwined and 'uneasy' relationship between the common law and statute.[82] If the industrial action is unlawful at common law, the judiciary asks whether there is a 'prime facie statutory immunity' for the commission of torts.[83] This substantive question considers whether the action was 'in contemplation or furtherance of a trade dispute'[84] before questioning whether the immunity had been procedurally lost by one of the three specified statutory reasons in TULRCA 1992.[85] The union's partial immunity could be lost for minor 'inconsequential breaches of the statutory rules'[86]; there is a series of High Court instances of injunctions being granted to 'ever more powerful and well-resourced employers'[87] owing to invalid strike ballots.[88] The readily available labour injunctions continued to be the "key piece[89]" of suppressing collective action until the minor development in 2011. In RMTv Serco Ltd;ASLEFv London and Birmingham Railway Limited (RMT and ASLEF),[90] the Court of Appeal approved and applied Millett LJ's 1996 observation in London Underground Limited v National Union of Railwaymen, Maritime and Transport Staff:[91] 'the democratic requirement of a secret ballot is not to make life more difficult for trade unions … but for the protection of the Union's own members'.[92] Owing to this proposed democratic aim, the court in RMT and ASLEF confirmed it was 'to interpret the statutory provisions somewhat less stringently'.[93] This interpretation is a stark contrast to Maurice Kay LJ's understanding of parliament's intentions. The court furthered Millett LJ's aim by recommending a neutral, 'without presumptions one way or the other',[94] interpretation of TULRCA. Upon the fact TULRCA is premised on the existing common law framework, the court's 'judicial creativity' could have easily 'outflank[ed] the intentions of Parliament'.[95] Instead of a 'neutral' approach, the courts have the power to mitigate unions disproportionate vulnerability against injunctions, damages, and unfair dismissals by encouraging and favouring social legitimacy. Although, the RMT and ASLEF court 'only indicated a change in emphasis rather than substance'[96] (since unions are still burdened with the challenges of exercising a 'lawful' strike),[97] this judgment enhanced union's ability to resist injunction applications (as observed by Balfour BeattyEngineering Services Limitedv Unitethe Union).[98] The unbiased interpretation encouraged in RMT and ASLEF continues to be the leading approach to interpreting domestic statutes regarding industrial action. ECHR Judiciary Admittedly, the scope of Maurice Kay LJ's strict interpretation was narrowly limited by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR).[99] The ECtHR confirmed, in Enerji Yapi-Yol Sen v Turkey,[100] that Article 11 of the European Convention on Human Rights included protection of the right to strike. This Article, and Article 6 of the European Social Charter[101] bestow the right to strike for their member states members and due to the UK Human Rights Act 1998, 'British workers are understood to enjoy a right to strike'.[102] This, unlike the mere domestic statutory immunities, is the only instance of a 'legislated' right to strike in the UK.[103] Under section 3(1) of the Human Rights Act 1998, 'statutory provisions must be read and given effect in a way which is compatible with the Conventionrights'[104] – 'the opportunity to test this line of argument'[105] in the English courts arose in Metrobus Ltd v Unite the Union (Metrobus).[106] The Court of Appeal rejected the Enerji arguments; the Court denied the authority's relevance for the interpretation of UK statutory provisions. This judgment continues to be the leading precedent on the UK's provisions of Article 11,[107] despite the RMT and ASLEF judgment. In RMT and ASLEF, the UK courts acknowledged the 'clearly protected'[108] right to strike under ECHR Article 11. However, the court emphasised the importance of a 'fair balance to be struck between the competing interests of the individual and the community as a whole'.[109] The emphasised interests of the 'community' motivated the court's justification for the ban on secondary action owing to its 'potential to … cause broad disruption within the economy and to affect the delivery of services to the public'.[110] Subsequently, the court confirmed that this ban aligns with Article 11(2) 'on the basis of a wide margin of appreciation accorded to the State'.[111] While the court is correct to recognise their bestowed margin of appreciation, the court rationalised the granting of the injunction, 'which itself cost the union a substantial sum',[112] upon economic factors. This factor is not only 'wholly irrelevant to the specific facts of the application' but it disregarded and postponed 'the exercise of what was acknowledged to be a convention protected right'.[113] The court effectively and 'successfully prevented industrial action on the basis of legal' human rights provisions 'which are intended to benefit workers'.[114] In short, there 'is no point creating rights' or passing human rights legislation if the 'court is not prepared to defend them'.[115] There will continue to be an erosion of human rights protection until there is greater coordination between the domestic courts and the ECtHR. It is credible to conclude that the UK judiciary is more concerned with profitability, self-preservation of UK powers, and 'in appeasing political forces'[116] above the interests of the individuals it and the Convention Rights was established to serve. Legislature The RMT and ASLEF court's 'blessing of a wide margin of appreciation' in the 'encompassment' of Article 11 offered a 'green light for further restrictive legislation on industrial action' by the 'only too happy Government'.[117] Here, Boggs and Ewing detect 'the crude politics of power'.[118] Upon observing the Court of Appeal's reluctance to exercise EU conventions, and the UK courts' developments that continue to be 'very much in line with the political approach of the Conservative government',[119] it materialises that the court and government are not 'looking to open a third (ECtHR) front'.[120] The Government has recently launched an 'independent review' of the Human Rights Act.[121] The review aims to evaluate 'the duty to take into account' ECtHR case law and assess 'whether dialogue between our domestic courts and the ECtHR works effectively and if there is room for improvement'.[122] It is worth highlighting that this 'independent' review will be led by former Court of Appeal Judge, Sir Peter Gross – the same judge who remarked that 'the more that controversial areas are "outsourced" … the greater the challenge for … judicial leadership'.[123] The former judge is a notable advocate for greater domestic judicial leadership.[124] This advocacy hints the likelihood of the review condemning the relevance and precedence of the ECtHR (and Human Rights Act 1998) in 'controversial' matters such as industrial action. This review has the powerful ability to eliminate the only instance of a legislated right to strike in the UK.[125] Ultimately 'The notion of lawful industrial action is restrictive', the procedural requirements are 'onerous' and the consequences of unions liability for unlawful strikes are 'serious'.[126] Nearly two decades after the European Social Charter's review,[127] the UK still does not guarantee the right to strike. The precedent in Metrobus still stands. There continues to be a 'poorly reasoned and barely consistent' series of judgments 'by what looks like a weak, timid'[128] and politically influenced[129] judiciary. The enactment of the 'Human Rights Act and the evolving jurisprudence of the ECtHR'[130] will not prescribe a right to strike in the UK until the Supreme Court or ECtHR rule UK's current provisions as incompatible with Article 11. In truth, 'the right to strike [in the UK] has never been much more than a slogan or a legal metaphor'.[131] This 'slogan' is a regime of immunities that are purposely designed upon an overly complex and expensive statutory system.[132] These immunities are not adequately or proportionately protecting workers, unions, and one in nine vulnerable, precarious workers against the 'pitfalls'[133] of damages, injunctions, and unfair dismissals.[134] This system was successfully underlined with the political agenda of deterring trade disputes; the UK's worker strike total has fallen to its 'lowest level since 1893'.[135] The 'unanimous and hostile'[136] approach of the legislature and the judiciary towards industrial action exhibits the UK's covert 'culture of routinely disregarding'[137] social legitimacy in favour of profits. [1] Alan Bogg and Ruth Dukes, 'Statutory Interpretation and The Limits of a Human Rights Approach: Royal Mail Group Ltd v Communication Workers Union' (2020) 49 ILJ 477, 478. [2] Nicholas Pohl,'Political and Economic Factors Influencing Strike Activity During the Recent Economic Crisis: A Study of The Spanish Case Between 2002 And 2013' (2018) 9 Global Labour Journal 19, 21. [3] ibid, 21. [4] Harry Smith, 'How Far Does UK Labour Law Provide for The Effective Exercise of a Right to Strike?' (2014) 6 The Student Journal of Law accessed 15 December 2020. [5] Hugh Collins, Aileen McColgan and Keith D Ewing,Labour Law(2nd edn, CUP 2019) 706. [6] Gwyneth Pitt,Cases and Materials on Employment Law(1st edn, Pearson Education Limited 2008) 570. [7] Pohl (n 2), 21. [8] Beverly J Silver,Forces of Labor Workers' Movements and Globalization Since 1870(CUP 2003) 17. [9] Pitt (n 6), 570. [10] Manfred Davidmann, 'The Right to Strike' (Solhaam, 1996) accessed 15 December 2020. [11] Adam Smith,An Inquiry into The Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations(Cofide 1776). [12] Bethan Staton, 'The Upstart Unions Taking on The Gig Economy and Outsourcing' (Financial Times, 20 January 2020) accessed 16 December 2020 [13] Employment Rights Act 1996,s212. [14] Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act (TULRCA)1992, s246. [15] Brian Smart, 'The Right to Strike and The Right to Work' (1985) 2 Journal of Applied Philosophy 31. [16] 'Industrial Action' (UNISON National) accessed 7 December 2020 [17] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [18] ibid, 478. [19] Article 18 of the Spanish Constitution and regulated by Royal Decree-Law 17/1977 of 4 March on Labour Relations ('RDLLR') and Article 4.1.e) of the Spanish Workers' Statute. [20] Article 40 of theItalianRepublic Constitution of 1948. [21] Collins, McColgan, and Ewing (n 5), 714. [22] RMT v Serco; ASLEF v London and Birmingham Railway [2011] EWCA Civ 226, [2011] ICR 848 [2]. [23] Metrobus Ltd v Unite the Union [2009] EWCA Civ 829, [2010] ICR 173 [118]. [24] South Wales Miners' Federation v Glamorgan Coal Co [1905] AC 239. [25] Collins, McColgan, and Ewing (n 5), 714. [26] (1853) 118 ER 749. [27] Taff Vale Railway Co vAmalgamated Society ofRailwayServants [1901] AC 426. [28] [1901] AC 495. [29] [2007] UKHL 21, [2008] 1 AC 1. [30] 'House of Lords Overhaul Economic Torts' (Herbert Smith Freehills, 17 May 2007) accessed 9 December 2020 [31] ibid. [32] OBG v Allan (n 29). [33] ibid, [37]. [34] Hazel Carty, 'The Economic Torts and English Law: An Uncertain Future' (2007) 95 Kentucky LJ 849. [35] Lonrho v Fayed [1990] 2 QB 479, 492-93. [36] Collins, McColgan, and Ewing (n 5), 714. [37] ibid, 714. [38] ibid, 849. [39] ibid, 848. [40] ibid, 847. [41] ibid, 847. [42] Cartey (n 34), 847. [43] ibid, 849. [44] Richard Kidner, 'Lessons in Trade Union Law Reform: The Origins and Passage of The Trade Disputes Act 1906' (2018) 2 Legal Studies 37. [45] Taff Vale (n 27). [46] Merriam-Webster,Merriam-Webster's Collegiate Encyclopedia(Merriam-Webster 2000) 1157. [47] Kidner (n 44), 47. [48] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [49] RMT and ASLEF (n 22) [2]. [50] Keith Ewing, 'The Right to Strike: From the Trade Disputes Act 1906 To A Trade Union Freedom Bill 2006' (Institute of Employment Rights, March 2013) accessed 11 December 2020. [51] The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica, 'Trade Disputes Act' (Encyclopedia Britannica, 20 July 1998) accessed 11 December 2020. [52] Ewing (n 50). [53] Encyclopedia Britannica (n 51). [54] FA Hayek, 'Trade Union Immunity Under the Law' The Times (London, 21 July 1977) 15 accessed 11 December 2020 [55] Davidmann (n 10). [56] Hayek (n 54). [57] Alex Kitson, '1978-1979: Winter of Discontent' (Libcom.org, 24 January 2007) accessed 11 December 2020. [58] Cmd, 8128, 1981. [59] Cmd 821, 1989. [60] Trade Union Immunities (n 58), para 247. [61] Trade Union Reform and Employment Rights Act 1993, s238A. [62] TULRCA 1992, ss237-38. [63] Michael Ford and Tonia Novitz, 'Legislating for Control: The Trade Union Act 2016' (2020) 45 ILJ 227. [64] Bart Cammaerts, 'The Efforts to Restrict the Freedom to Strike and To Deny A Right to Strike Should Be Resisted Fiercely' (LSE Blogs, 14 September 2015) accessed 11 December 2020. [65] TUA 2016, s226(2)(a) (ii). [66] ibid, s226(2)(e). [67] ibid, s238A. [68] Ford and Novitz (n 63), 291. [69] ibid, 291. [70] ibid, 291. [71] ibid, 291. [72] ibid, 279. [73] Modernising Industrial Relations n.7. [74] Ford and Novitz (n 63), 279. [75] Ewing (n 50). [76] Brian Towers, 'Running the Gauntlet: British Trade Unions Under Thatcher, 1979-1988' (1989) 42 ILR Rev 163. [77] Gareth Thomas and Ian K Smith,Smith & Thomas' Employment Law(9th edn, OUP 2007), 737. [78] Davidmann (n 10). [79] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 492. [80] Ruth Dukes, 'The Right to Strike Under UK Law: Not Much More Than A Slogan? NURMT v SERCO, ASLEF v London & Birmingham Railway Ltd' (2011) 40 ILJ 302, 309. [81] [1983] ICR 490. [82] Collins, McColgan, and Ewing (n 5), 847. [83] TULRCA 1992, s219. [84] ibid. [85] ibid, ss222, 224, and 226. [86] Dukes (n 80), 309. [87] Kalina Arabadjieva, 'Royal Mail Group Ltd v Communication Workers Union (CWU): Injunctions Preventing Industrial Action and The Right to Strike' (UK Labour Law, 6 March 2020) accessed 12 December 2020. [88] TULRCA 1992, s226. [89] Arabadjieva (n 87). [90] n 22. [91] [1996] ICR 170. [92] ibid, [180]-[182]. [93] Dukes (n 82), 309. [94] RMT and ASLEF (n 22), [2]. [95] Smith (n 4). [96] Ford and Novitz (n 63), 281. [97] Arabadjieva (n 87). [98] [2012] EWHC 267 (QB). [99] Keith Ewing and Alan Bogg, 'The Implications of The RMT Case' (2014) 40 ILJ 221, 222. [100] [2009] ECHR 2251. [101] 'The right to bargain collectively.' [102] Keith Ewing and John Hendy, 'The Dramatic Implications of Demir and Baykara' (2010) 39 ILJ 2. [103] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [104] ibid. [105] Dukes (n 82), 303. [106] n 23. [107] Dukes (n 82), 310. [108] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 221. [109] RMT and ASLEF (n 22), [77]. [110] ibid, [82]. [111] ECHR Art 11 (2). [112] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 251. [113] ibid, 221. [114] Arabadjieva (n 87). [115] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 223. [116] ibid, 251. [117] Ford and Novitz (n 63), 282. [118] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 223. [119] Thomas and Smith (n 77), 737. [120] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 223. [121] Ministry of Justice, 'Government Launches Independent Review of the Human Rights Act' (Gov.uk, 7 December 2020) accessed 15 December 2020. [122] ibid. [123] Jamie Susskind, 'Jamie Susskind Comments on Sir Peter Gross' Lecture on Judicial Leadership' (Littleton Chambers) accessed 15 December 2020. [124] ibid. [125] ECHR Art 11. [126] Ruth Dukes, The Right to Strike Under UK Law: Something More Than A Slogan? Metrobus v Unite The Union [2009] EWCA Civ 829' (2010) 39 ILJ 1, 7. [127] ESC, Report of the Committee of Experts 2002. [128] Ewing and Bogg (n 99), 251. [129] Thomas and Smith (n 77), 737. [130] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [131] Metrobus (n 23) (Maurice Kay LJ). [132] Bogg and Dukes (n 1), 478. [133] Dukes (n 125), 9. [134] ibid, 7. [135] Richard Partington, 'UK Worker Strike Total Falls to Lowest Level Since 1893' (The Guardian, 30 May 2018) accessed 15 December 2020 [136] Smith (n 4). [137] ibid.

Only Vanderbilt University affiliated authors are listed on VUIR. For a full list of authors, access the version of record at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6715680/ ; Fanconi anemia (FA) is a genetically heterogeneous disorder with 22 disease-causing genes reported to date. In some FA genes, monoallelic mutations have been found to be associated with breast cancer risk, while the risk associations of others remain unknown. The gene for FA type C, FANCC, has been proposed as a breast cancer susceptibility gene based on epidemiological and sequencing studies. We used the Oncoarray project to genotype two truncating FANCC variants (p.R185X and p.R548X) in 64,760 breast cancer cases and 49,793 controls of European descent. FANCC mutations were observed in 25 cases (14 with p.R185X, 11 with p.R548X) and 26 controls (18 with p.R185X, 8 with p.R548X). There was no evidence of an association with the risk of breast cancer, neither overall (odds ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.44-1.33, p = 0.4) nor by histology, hormone receptor status, age or family history. We conclude that the breast cancer risk association of these two FANCC variants, if any, is much smaller than for BRCA1, BRCA2 or PALB2 mutations. If this applies to all truncating variants in FANCC it would suggest there are differences between FA genes in their roles on breast cancer risk and demonstrates the merit of large consortia for clarifying risk associations of rare variants. ; We thank all the individuals who took part in these studies and all the researchers, clinicians, technicians and administrative staff who have enabled this work to be carried out. We acknowledge all contributors to the COGS and OncoArray study design, chip design, genotyping, and genotype analyses. ABCFS thank Maggie Angelakos, Judi Maskiell, Gillian Dite. ABCS thanks the Blood bank Sanquin, The Netherlands. ABCTB Investigators: C.L.C., Rosemary Balleine, Robert Baxter, Stephen Braye, Jane Carpenter, Jane Dahlstrom, John Forbes, Soon Lee, Deborah Marsh, Adrienne Morey, Nirmala Pathmanathan, Rodney Scott, Allan Spigelman, Nicholas Wilcken, Desmond Yip. Samples are made available to researchers on a non-exclusive basis. The ACP study wishes to thank the participants in the Thai Breast Cancer study. Special Thanks also go to the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH), doctors and nurses who helped with the data collection process. Finally, the study would like to thank Dr Prat Boonyawongviroj, the former Permanent Secretary of MOPH and Dr Pornthep Siriwanarungsan, the Department Director-General of Disease Control who have supported the study throughout. BBCS thanks Eileen Williams, Elaine Ryder-Mills, Kara Sargus. BCEES thanks Allyson Thomson, Christobel Saunders, Terry Slevin, BreastScreen Western Australia, Elizabeth Wylie, Rachel Lloyd. The BCINIS study would not have been possible without the contributions of Dr. K. Landsman, Dr. N. Gronich, Dr. A. Flugelman, Dr. W. Saliba, Dr. E. Liani, Dr. I. Cohen, Dr. S. Kalet, Dr. V. Friedman, Dr. O. Barnet of the NICCC in Haifa, and all the contributing family medicine, surgery, pathology and oncology teams in all medical institutes in Northern Israel. The BREOGAN study would not have been possible without the contributions of the following: Jose Esteban Castelao, Angel Carracedo, Victor Munoz Garzon, Alejandro Novo Dominguez, Sara Miranda Ponte, Carmen Redondo Marey, Maite Pena Fernandez, Manuel Enguix Castelo, Maria Torres, Manuel Calaza (BREOGAN), Jose Antunez, Maximo Fraga and the staff of the Department of Pathology and Biobank of the University Hospital Complex of Santiago-CHUS, Instituto de Investigacion Sanitaria de Santiago, IDIS, Xerencia de Xestion Integrada de Santiago-SERGAS; Joaquin Gonzalez-Carrero and the staff of the Department of Pathology and Biobank of University Hospital Complex of Vigo, Instituto de Investigacion Biomedica Galicia Sur, SERGAS, Vigo, Spain. BSUCH thanks Peter Bugert, Medical Faculty Mannheim. The CAMA study would like to recognize CONACyT for the financial support provided for this work and all physicians responsible for the project in the different participating hospitals: Dr. German Castelazo (IMSS, Ciudad de Mexico, DF), Dr. Sinhue Barroso Bravo (IMSS, Ciudad de Mexico, DF), Dr. Fernando Mainero Ratchelous (IMSS, Ciudad de Mexico, DF), Dr. Joaquin Zarco Mendez (ISSSTE, Ciudad de Mexico, DF), Dr. Edelmiro Perez Rodriguez (Hospital Universitario, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon), Dr. Jesus Pablo Esparza Cano (IMSS, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon), Dr. Heriberto Fabela (IMSS, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon), Dr. Fausto Hernandez Morales (ISSSTE, Veracruz, Veracruz), Dr. Pedro Coronel Brizio (CECAN SS, Xalapa, Veracruz) and Dr. Vicente A. Saldana Quiroz (IMSS, Veracruz, Veracruz). CBCS thanks study participants, co-investigators, collaborators and staff of the Canadian Breast Cancer Study, and project coordinators Agnes Lai and Celine Morissette. CCGP thanks Styliani Apostolaki, Anna Margiolaki, Georgios Nintos, Maria Perraki, Georgia Saloustrou, Georgia Sevastaki, Konstantinos Pompodakis. CGPS thanks staff and participants of the Copenhagen General Population Study. For the excellent technical assistance: Dorthe Uldall Andersen, Maria Birna Arnadottir, Anne Bank, Dorthe Kjeldgard Hansen. The Danish Cancer Biobank is acknowledged for providing infrastructure for the collection of blood samples for the cases. COLBCCC thanks all patients, the physicians Justo G. Olaya, Mauricio Tawil, Lilian Torregrosa, Elias Quintero, Sebastian Quintero, Claudia Ramirez, Jose J. Caicedo, and Jose F. Robledo, the researchers Ignacio Briceno, Fabian Gil, Angela Umana, Angela Beltran and Viviana Ariza, and the technician Michael Gilbert for their contributions and commitment to this study. Investigators from the CPSII cohort thank the participants and Study Management Group for their invaluable contributions to this research. They also acknowledge the contribution to this study from central cancer registries supported through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Program of Cancer Registries, as well as cancer registries supported by the National Cancer Institute Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program. CTS Investigators include Leslie Bernstein, S.L.N., James Lacey, Sophia Wang, and Huiyan Ma at the Beckman Research Institute of City of Hope, Jessica Clague DeHart at the School of Community and Global Health Claremont Graduate University, Dennis Deapen, Rich Pinder, and Eunjung Lee at the University of Southern California, Pam Horn-Ross, Christina Clarke Dur and David Nelson at the Cancer Prevention Institute of California, Peggy Reynolds, at the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, H.A-C, A.Z., and Hannah Park at the University of California Irvine, and Fred Schumacher at Case Western University. DIETCOMPLYF thanks the patients, nurses and clinical staff involved in the study. We thank the participants and the investigators of EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). ESTHER thanks Hartwig Ziegler, Sonja Wolf, Volker Hermann, Christa Stegmaier, Katja Butterbach. FHRISK thanks NIHR for funding. GC-HBOC thanks Stefanie Engert, Heide Hellebrand, Sandra Krober and LIFE -Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases (Markus Loeffler, Joachim Thiery, Matthias Nuchter, Ronny Baber). The GENICA Network: Dr. Margarete Fischer-Bosch-Institute of Clinical Pharmacology, Stuttgart, and University of Tubingen, Germany [H.B., W-Y.L.], German Cancer Consortium (DKTK) and German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) [H. B.], Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy - EXC 2180 -390900677, Department of Internal Medicine, Evangelische Kliniken Bonn gGmbH, Johanniter Krankenhaus, Bonn, Germany [Yon-Dschun Ko, Christian Baisch], Institute of Pathology, University of Bonn, Germany [Hans-Peter Fischer], Molecular Genetics of Breast Cancer, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany [UH], Institute for Prevention and Occupational Medicine of the German Social Accident Insurance, Institute of the Ruhr University Bochum (IPA), Bochum, Germany [Thomas Bruning, Beate Pesch, Sylvia Rabstein, Anne Lotz]; and Institute of Occupational Medicine and Maritime Medicine, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany [Volker Harth]. HABCS thanks Michael Bremer and Johann H. Karstens. HEBCS thanks Sofia Khan, Johanna Kiiski, Kristiina Aittomaki, Rainer Fagerholm, Kirsimari Aaltonen, Karl von Smitten, Irja Erkkila. HKBCS thanks Hong Kong Sanatorium and Hospital, Dr Ellen Li Charitable Foundation, The Kerry Group Kuok Foundation, National Institute of Health 1R03CA130065 and the North California Cancer Center for support. HMBCS thanks Johann H. Karstens. HUBCS thanks Shamil Gantsev. KARMA thanks the Swedish Medical Research Counsel. KBCP thanks Eija Myohanen, Helena Kemilainen. We thank all investigators of the KOHBRA (Korean Hereditary Breast Cancer) Study. LMBC thanks Gilian Peuteman, Thomas Van Brussel, EvyVanderheyden and Kathleen Corthouts. MABCS thanks Milena Jakimovska (RCGEB "Georgi D. Efremov), Emilija Lazarova (University Clinic of Radiotherapy and Oncology), Katerina Kubelka-Sabit, Mitko Karadjozov (Adzibadem-Sistina Hospital), Andrej Arsovski and Liljana Stojanovska (Re-Medika Hospital) for their contributions and commitment to this study. MARIE thanks Petra Seibold, Dieter Flesch-Janys, Judith Heinz, Nadia Obi, Alina Vrieling, Sabine Behrens, Ursula Eilber, Muhabbet Celik, Til Olchers and Stefan Nickels. MBCSG (Milan Breast Cancer Study Group): Bernard Peissel, Jacopo Azzollini, Dario Zimbalatti, Daniela Zaffaroni, Bernardo Bonanni, Mariarosaria Calvello, Davide Bondavalli, Aliana Guerrieri Gonzaga, Monica Marabelli, Irene Feroce, and the personnel of the Cogentech Cancer Genetic Test Laboratory. We thank the coordinators, the research staff and especially the MMHS participants for their continued collaboration on research studies in breast cancer. MSKCC thanks Marina Corines, Lauren Jacobs. MTLGEBCS would like to thank Martine Tranchant (CHU de QuebecUniversite Laval Research Center), Marie-France Valois, Annie Turgeon and Lea Heguy (McGill University Health Center, Royal Victoria Hospital; McGill University) for DNA extraction, sample management and skillful technical assistance. J. S. is Chair holder of the Canada Research Chair in Oncogenetics. MYBRCA thanks study participants and research staff (particularly Patsy Ng, Nurhidayu Hassan, Yoon Sook-Yee, Daphne Lee, Lee Sheau Yee, Phuah Sze Yee and Norhashimah Hassan) for their contributions and commitment to this study. The NBCS Collaborators would like to thank the Oslo Breast Cancer Research Consortium, OSBREAC (breastcancerresearch. no/osbreac/), for providing samples and phenotype data. NBHS and SBCGS thank study participants and research staff for their contributions and commitment to the studies. We would like to thank the participants and staff of the Nurses' Health Study and Nurses' Health Study II for their valuable contributions as well as the following state cancer registries for their help: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NE, NH, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, TX, VA, WA, WY. The authors assume full responsibility for analyses and interpretation of these data. OFBCR thanks Teresa Selander, Nayana Weerasooriya. ORIGO thanks E. Krol-Warmerdam, and J. Blom for patient accrual, administering questionnaires, and managing clinical information. The ORIGO survival data were retrieved from the Leiden hospital-based cancer registry system (ONCDOC) with the help of Dr. J. Molenaar. PBCS thanks Louise Brinton, Mark Sherman, Neonila Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Beata Peplonska, Witold Zatonski, Pei Chao, Michael Stagner. The ethical approval for the POSH study is MREC/00/6/69, UKCRN ID: 1137. We thank staff in the Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre (ECMC) supported Faculty of Medicine Tissue Bank and the Faculty of Medicine DNA Banking resource. PREFACE thanks Sonja Oeser and Silke Landrith. PROCAS thanks NIHR for funding. RBCS thanks Petra Bos, Jannet Blom, Ellen Crepin, Elisabeth Huijskens, Anja Kromwijk-Nieuwlaat, Annette Heemskerk, the Erasmus MC Family Cancer Clinic. We thank the SEARCH and EPIC teams. SGBCC thanks the participants and research coordinator Ms Tan Siew Li. SKKDKFZS thanks all study participants, clinicians, family doctors, researchers and technicians for their contributions and commitment to this study. We thank the SUCCESS Study teams in Munich, Duessldorf, Erlangen and Ulm. SZBCS thanks Ewa Putresza. UCIBCS thanks Irene Masunaka. UKBGS thanks Breast Cancer Now and the Institute of Cancer Research for support and funding of the Breakthrough Generations Study, and the study participants, study staff, and the doctors, nurses and other health care providers and health information sources who have contributed to the study. We acknowledge NHS funding to the Royal Marsden/ICR NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. BCAC is funded by Cancer Research UK [C1287/A16563, C1287/A10118], the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant numbers 634935 and 633784 for BRIDGES and B-CAST respectively), and by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement number 223175 (Grant Number HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS). The EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme funding source had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation or writing of the report. Genotyping of the OncoArray was funded by the NIH Grant U19 CA148065, and Cancer UK Grant C1287/A16563 and the PERSPECTIVE project supported by the Government of Canada through Genome Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (grant GPH-129344) and, the Ministere de l'Economie, Science et Innovation du Quebec through Genome Quebec and the PSR-SIIRI-701 grant, and the Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation. Funding for the iCOGS infrastructure came from: the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement No. 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692, C8197/A16565), the National Institutes of Health (CA128978) and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065 and 1U19 CA148112 -the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defence (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, and Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. The DRIVE Consortium was funded by U19 CA148065. The Australian Breast Cancer Family Study (ABCFS), BCFR-NY, BCFR-PA, BCFR-UTAH, the Northern California Breast Cancer Family Registry (NCBCFR) and Ontario Familial Breast Cancer Registry (OFBCR) were supported by grant UM1 CA164920 from the National Cancer Institute (USA). The content of this manuscript does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the National Cancer Institute or any of the collaborating centers in the Breast Cancer Family Registry (BCFR), nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the USA Government or the BCFR. The ABCFS was also supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, the New South Wales Cancer Council, the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (Australia) and the Victorian Breast Cancer Research Consortium. J.L.H. is a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Senior Principal Research Fellow. M.C.S. is a NHMRC Senior Research Fellow. The ABCS study was supported by the Dutch Cancer Society [grants NKI 2007-3839; 2009 4363]. The Australian Breast Cancer Tissue Bank (ABCTB) was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, The Cancer Institute NSW and the National Breast Cancer Foundation. C.L.C is a NHMRC Principal Research Fellow. The ACP study is funded by the Breast Cancer Research Trust, UK and KM and AL are supported by the NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre and by the ICEP ("This work was also supported by CRUK [grant number C18281/A19169]"). The AHS study is supported by the intramural research program of the National Institutes of Health, the National Cancer Institute (grant number Z01-CP010119), and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (grant number Z01-ES049030). The work of the BBCC was partly funded by ELAN-Fond of the University Hospital of Erlangen. The BBCS is funded by Cancer Research UK and Breast Cancer Now and acknowledges NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, and the National Cancer Research Network (NCRN). The BCEES was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia and the Cancer Council Western Australia and acknowledges funding from the National Breast Cancer Foundation (J.S.). The BREast Oncology GAlician Network (BREOGAN) is funded by Accion Estrategica de Salud del Instituto de Salud Carlos III FIS PI12/02125/Cofinanciado FEDER; Accion Estrategica de Salud del Instituto de Salud Carlos III FIS Intrasalud (PI13/01136); Programa Grupos Emergentes, Cancer Genetics Unit, Instituto de Investigacion Biomedica Galicia Sur. Xerencia de Xestion Integrada de Vigo-SERGAS, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain; Grant 10CSA012E, Conselleria de Industria Programa Sectorial de Investigacion Aplicada, PEME I+ D e I + D Suma del Plan Gallego de Investigacion, Desarrollo e Innovacion Tecnologica de la Conselleria de Industria de la Xunta de Galicia, Spain; Grant EC11-192. Fomento de la Investigacion Clinica Independiente, Ministerio de Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad, Spain; and Grant FEDER-Innterconecta. Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad, Xunta de Galicia, Spain. The BSUCH study was supported by the Dietmar-Hopp Foundation, the Helmholtz Society and the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ). The CAMA study was funded by Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACyT) (SALUD-2002-C01-7462). Sample collection and processing was funded in part by grants from the National Cancer Institute (NCI R01CA120120 and K24CA169004). CBCS is funded by the Canadian Cancer Society (grant #313404) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. CCGP is supported by funding from the University of Crete. The CECILE study was supported by Fondation de France, Institut National du Cancer (INCa), Ligue Nationale contre le Cancer, Agence Nationale de Securite Sanitaire, de l'Alimentation, de l'Environnement et du Travail (ANSES), Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR). The CGPS was supported by the Chief Physician Johan Boserup and Lise Boserup Fund, the Danish Medical Research Council, and Herlev and Gentofte Hospital. COLBCCC is supported by the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany. Diana Torres was in part supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. The American Cancer Society funds the creation, maintenance, and updating of the CPSII cohort. The CTS was supported by the California Breast Cancer Act of 1993, the California Breast Cancer Research Fund (contract 97-10500) and the National Institutes of Health (R01 CA77398, K05 CA136967, UM1 CA164917, and U01 CA199277). Collection of cancer incidence data was supported by the California Department of Public Health as part of the statewide cancer reporting program mandated by California Health and Safety Code Section 103885. HAC receives support from the Lon V Smith Foundation (LVS39420). The University of Westminster curates the DietCompLyf database funded by the charity Against Breast Cancer (Registered Charity No. 1121258) and the NCRN. The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by: Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation, the Stavros Niarchos Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucia, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/A16491 and C8221/A19170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom). The ESTHER study was supported by a grant from the Baden Wurttemberg Ministry of Science, Research and Arts. Additional cases were recruited in the context of the VERDI study, which was supported by a grant from the German Cancer Aid (Deutsche Krebshilfe). FHRISK is funded from NIHR grant PGfAR 0707-10031. DGE is supported by the all Manchester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (IS-BRC-1215-20007). The GC-HBOC (German Consortium of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer) is supported by the German Cancer Aid (grant no 110837, coordinator: R.K.S., Cologne). This work was also funded by the European Regional Development Fund and Free State of Saxony, Germany (LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases, project numbers 713-241202, 713-241202, 14505/2470, 14575/2470). The GENICA was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Germany grants 01KW9975/5, 01KW9976/8, 01KW9977/0 and 01KW0114, the Robert Bosch Foundation, Stuttgart, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum (DKFZ), Heidelberg, the Institute for Prevention and Occupational Medicine of the German Social Accident Insurance, Institute of the Ruhr University Bochum (IPA), Bochum, as well as the Department of Internal Medicine, Evangelische Kliniken Bonn gGmbH, Johanniter Krankenhaus, Bonn, Germany. The GEPARSIXTO study was conducted by the German Breast Group GmbH. The GESBC was supported by the Deutsche Krebshilfe e.V. [70492] and the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ). The HABCS study was supported by the Claudia von Schilling Foundation for Breast Cancer Research, by the Lower Saxonian Cancer Society, by the Friends of Hannover Medical School and by the Rudolf Bartling Foundation. The HEBCS was financially supported by the Helsinki University Central Hospital Research Fund, Academy of Finland (266528), the Finnish Cancer Society, and the Sigrid Juselius Foundation. The HERPACC was supported by MEXT Kakenhi (No. 170150181 and 26253041) from the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports, Culture and Technology of Japan, by a Grant-in-Aid for the Third Term Comprehensive 10-Year Strategy for Cancer Control from Ministry Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, by Health and Labour Sciences Research Grants for Research on Applying Health Technology from Ministry Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, by National Cancer Center Research and Development Fund, and "Practical Research for Innovative Cancer Control (15ck0106177h0001)" from Japan Agency for Medical Research and development, AMED, and Cancer Bio Bank Aichi. The HMBCS and HUBCS were funded by the German Research Foundation (Do761/10-1) and by the Rudolf Bartling Foundation. The HUBCS was further supported by a grant from the German Federal Ministry of Research and Education (RUS08/017), and by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations for support the Bioresource collections and RFBR grants 14-04-97088, 17-29-06014 and 17-44-020498. Financial support for KARBAC was provided through the regional agreement on medical training and clinical research (ALF) between Stockholm County Council and Karolinska Institutet, the Swedish Cancer Society, The Gustav V Jubilee foundation and Bert von Kantzows foundation. The KARMA study was supported by Marit and Hans Rausings Initiative Against Breast Cancer. The KBCP was financially supported by the special Government Funding (EVO) of Kuopio University Hospital grants, Cancer Fund of North Savo, the Finnish Cancer Organizations, and by the strategic funding of the University of Eastern Finland. The KOHBRA study was partially supported by a grant from the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), and the National R&D Program for Cancer Control, Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (HI16C1127; 1020350; 1420190). LMBC is supported by the 'Stichting tegen Kanker'. DL is supported by the FWO. The MABCS study is funded by the Research Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology "Georgi D. Efremov" and supported by the German Academic Exchange Program, DAAD. The MARIE study was supported by the Deutsche Krebshilfe e. V. [70-2892-BR I, 106332, 108253, 108419, 110826, 110828], the Hamburg Cancer Society, the German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Germany [01KH0402]. MBCSG is supported by grants from the Italian Association for Cancer Research (AIRC) and by funds from the Italian citizens who allocated the 5/1000 share of their tax payment in support of the Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale Tumori, according to Italian laws (INT-Institutional strategic projects "5 x 1000"). The MCBCS was supported by the NIH grants CA192393, CA116167, CA176785 an NIH Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer [CA116201], and the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and a generous gift from the David F. and Margaret T. Grohne Family Foundation. MCCS cohort recruitment was funded by VicHealth and Cancer Council Victoria. The MCCS was further supported by Australian NHMRC grants 209057 and 396414, and by infrastructure provided by Cancer Council Victoria. Cases and their vital status were ascertained through the Victorian Cancer Registry (VCR) and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), including the National Death Index and the Australian Cancer Database. The MEC was supported by NIH grants CA63464, CA54281, CA098758, CA132839 and CA164973. The MISS study is supported by funding from ERC-2011-294576 Advanced grant, Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council, Local hospital funds, Berta Kamprad Foundation, Gunnar Nilsson. The MMHS study was supported by NIH grants CA97396, CA128931, CA116201, CA140286 and CA177150. MSKCC is supported by grants from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation and Robert and Kate Niehaus Clinical Cancer Genetics Initiative. The work of MTLGEBCS was supported by the Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for the " CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer" program -grant #CRN-87521 and the Ministry of Economic Development, Innovation and Export Trade - grant #PSR-SIIRI-701. MYBRCA is funded by research grants from the Malaysian Ministry of Higher Education (UM. C/HlR/MOHE/06) and Cancer Research Malaysia. MYMAMMO is supported by research grants from Yayasan Sime Darby LPGA Tournament and Malaysian Ministry of Higher Education (RP046B-15HTM). The NBCS has received funding from the K.G. Jebsen Centre for Breast Cancer Research; the Research Council of Norway grant 193387/V50 (to A-L Borresen-Dale and V.N.K.) and grant 193387/H10 (to A-L Borresen-Dale and V. N. K.), South Eastern Norway Health Authority (grant 39346 to A-L Borresen-Dale) and the Norwegian Cancer Society (to A-L Borresen-Dale and V. N. K.). The NBHS was supported by NIH grant R01CA100374. Biological sample preparation was conducted the Survey and Biospecimen Shared Resource, which is supported by P30 CA68485. The Carolina Breast Cancer Study (NCBCS) was funded by Komen Foundation, the National Cancer Institute (National Cancer Institute CA058223, U54 CA156733, U01 CA179715), and the North Carolina University Cancer Research Fund. The NGOBCS was supported by the National Cancer Center Research and Development Fund. The NHS was supported by NIH grants P01 CA87969, UM1 CA186107, and U19 CA148065. The NHS2 was supported by NIH grants UM1 CA176726 and U19 CA148065. The ORIGO study was supported by the Dutch Cancer Society (RUL 1997-1505) and the Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL CP16). The PBCS was funded by Intramural Research Funds of the National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, USA. Genotyping for PLCO was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, NCI, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics. The PLCO is supported by the Intramural Research Program of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics and supported by contracts from the Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health. The POSH study is funded by Cancer Research UK (grants C1275/A11699, C1275/C22524, C1275/A19187, C1275/A15956 and Breast Cancer Campaign 2010PR62, 2013PR044. PROCAS is funded from NIHR grant PGfAR 0707-10031. The RBCS was funded by the Dutch Cancer Society (DDHK 2004-3124, DDHK 2009-4318). The SASBAC study was supported by funding from the Agency for Science, Technology and Research of Singapore (A*STAR), the US National Institute of Health (NIH) and the Susan G. Komen Breast Cancer Foundation. The SBCGS was supported primarily by NIH grants R01CA64277, R01CA148667, UMCA182910, and R37CA70867. Biological sample preparation was conducted the Survey and Biospecimen Shared Resource, which is supported by P30 CA68485. The scientific development and funding of this project were, in part, supported by the Genetic Associations and Mechanisms in Oncology (GAME-ON) Network U19 CA148065. SEARCH is funded by Cancer Research UK [C490/A10124, C490/A16561] and supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Cambridge. The University of Cambridge has received salary support for PDPP from the NHS in the East of England through the Clinical Academic Reserve. SEBCS was supported by the BRL (Basic Research Laboratory) program through the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (2012-0000347). SGBCC is funded by the NUS start-up Grant, National University Cancer Institute Singapore (NCIS) Centre Grant and the NMRC Clinician Scientist Award. Additional controls were recruited by the Singapore Consortium of Cohort StudiesMulti-ethnic cohort (SCCS-MEC), which was funded by the Biomedical Research Council, grant number: 05/1/21/19/425. The Sister Study (SISTER) is supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01-ES044005 and Z01-ES049033). The Two Sister Study (2SISTER) was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Z01-ES044005 and Z01-ES102245), and, also by a grant from Susan G. Komen for the Cure, grant FAS0703856. SKKDKFZS is supported by the DKFZ. The SMC is funded by the Swedish Cancer Foundation. The SZBCS was supported by Grant PBZ_KBN_122/P05/2004. The TNBCC was supported by: a Specialized Program of Research Excellence (SPORE) in Breast Cancer (CA116201), a grant from the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, a generous gift from the David F. and Margaret T. Grohne Family Foundation and the Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center. The TWBCS is supported by the Taiwan Biobank project of the Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan. The UCIBCS component of this research was supported by the NIH [CA58860, CA92044] and the Lon V Smith Foundation [LVS39420]. The UKBGS is funded by Breast Cancer Now and the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), London. ICR acknowledges NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The UKOPS study was funded by The Eve Appeal (The Oak Foundation) and supported by the National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre. The USRT Study was funded by Intramural Research Funds of the National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, USA. The WAABCS study was supported by grants from the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health (R01 CA89085 and P50 CA125183 and the D43 TW009112 grant), Susan G. Komen (SAC110026), the Dr. Ralph and Marian Falk Medical Research Trust, and the Avon Foundation for Women.

Dirk Messner on the dynamics
of global change and the significance of international science and technology
cooperation in the post-Western world



This is the fifth in a series of Talks dedicated to the technopolitics of International Relations, linked to the forthcoming double volume 'The Global Politics of Science and Technology' edited by Maximilian Mayer, Mariana Carpes, and Ruth Knoblich 





In recent years, the analysis of new emerging powers and shifting global order has become central to the study of international relations. While International Relations, aiming to evolve into a truly global discipline, is only just about to start opening up towards Non-Western perspectives, global power shifts have already led to a restructuring of global governance architecture in large fields of political reality and practice. Dirk Messner illustrates how far global power shifts have to lead to new patterns of international cooperation using international science and technology cooperation as a case in point. He argues that investment in joint knowledge creation and knowledge exchange is vital for managing the earth system. Messner also points to the multitude of tasks related to socio-technical systems which the political sphere is currently facing, particularly with regard to the challenge of managing the climate system. 




Print version of this Talk (pdf)




What is the most important challenge facing global politics that should be the central debate in the discipline of International Relations?



The biggest challenge of the next decades which we have to come to terms with is governing the big global commons. When I say global commons I do have in mind the atmosphere, the climate system, and other parts of the earth system, but also international financial markets and global infrastructures, such as the Internet – stability of these and other global commons is a public good much required. We need to stabilize the global commons and then manage them in a cooperative manner.



Three dynamics of global change make it specifically challenging to manage these global commons. The first wave of global change is the globalization wave; the economic globalization, cross-border dynamics, global value chains. It becomes evident that in many areas and especially when it comes to the global commons, regulation exceeds the capacity of individual nation states. The international community is required to institutionalize multilateralism and efficient global governance mechanisms in order to properly address issues arising from global dynamics. The second big global change is the shift from a Western to a post-Western world order. Global power shifts remaking the international system impede governing global commons. The third wave of global change is related to climate change, which adds a new dimension of global dynamics; human beings now have to learn how to steer, to stabilize, and how to govern the earth system as such. We are not only a species living on this planet, depending from resources and ecosystems of the earth systems. With the acceleration of economic globalization during the 1990s and the emergence of new, non-Western economic drivers of change, like China, humankind now significantly impacts the physical structures of the earth system. This trend is new. For the first 4,6 billion years of the existence of the earth system it was driven by the laws of physics, the dynamics of biology and bio-chemical processes. Homo sapiens appeared 220.000 years ago, and the impact of our species on the earth system has been marginal until the industrial revolution started 250 years ago. During the last decades human mankind became a major driver of change at a planetary scale.





How did you arrive in your current thinking about these issues?



I have always been interested in international relations, international policy dimensions, and the global economy. I started at the Free University of Berlin at the beginning of the 80's towards the mid-80's, studying Political Science and Economics. One among those professors who have been particularly important to me is Elmar Altvater. He was the supervisor of my diploma as well as of my Ph.D., and he sent me abroad. This resulted being a pivotal experience to me. I studied the last year of my first degree in Seoul, in South Korea. It was the period, the 80's, when the four Asian Tiger states emerged following Japan's example: South Korea, Taiwan, Hongkong, and Singapur. I had the chance to visit these countries, study there and learn a lot about Asia. I was fascinated by the dynamics of emerging economies and what this implied for the international arena. Somewhat later, the Latin American continent became the center of my interest. I did research in Nicaragua, Uruguay, Chile and some other Latin American countries, trying to understand liberalization-movements, how weaker actors come under pressure in Western-dominated global settings, but also how some countries managed it to become dynamic parts of the global economy (like the "Asian tigers" or Chile) and why others failed. I learnt that it is crucial to understand dynamics of global change in order to being able to build solid and inclusive economic structures and legitimate political systems at national levels. There has always been a political impulse that pulled me into certain fields I decided to work in.





What is your advice for students who would like to get into the field of global change research or international cooperation?



My first advice is: visit and work in different countries and different cultural and political settings. It is one thing to learn from scholars or books, but having studied and having lived in different contexts and countries is absolutely a key experience. This is the way to understand global dynamics, to get a feeling for differences and similarities. My second advice stems from my experience and conviction that we need much more interdisciplinary research than we currently have. We talk a lot about interdisciplinarity, however, we do not have career paths that systematically build interdisciplinary teams.



Looking particularly at global environmental changes and the future of the earth system, at the end of the day, social scientists and natural scientists need to learn how to work together and to understand each other. The future of the oceans, for example, is not a question that can be understood by ocean biologists only. They are the people studying how these elements of the earth system are actually working, the dynamics and drivers - focusing on physical, chemical, and biochemical processes. But when we look at the oceans towards 2100 from the perspective of global change, the most important drivers are now us human beings, our economies, our consumption patterns, our greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the oceans. And this implies that to understand dynamics of global change, we need to analyze the interactions, interdependences and feedback loops between three systems: the ecological system(s); social systems (our economies and societies) driven by humans; the technical systems and infrastructures. Therefore natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers need to interact very closely.  In the German Advisory Council on Global Change we call this approach: Transformation Research. Currently, we do not possess the appropriate university structures to adequately address this sort of problems. This is an immense institutional challenge. If I were a young scholar I would move into this direction, crossing disciplinary boundaries as much as possible.





What is the role of science and technologies in the dynamics of global change?



There are multiple important dimensions, but I would like to focus on some of them by moving through the aforementioned waves of global change. Technology is driving economic globalization, the first wave of global change. So we need to understand the dynamics of new technologies, especially the impact of ICTs, in order to understand the dynamics of economic globalization. The World Wide Web and social communication media are restructuring industrialization processes and global value chains. ICT infrastructure is also displaying a big potential for less developed regions. In Africa, for example, we saw many African countries jumping from the old telephone technologies to smartphones within less than a decade, because the old, maintenance and capital intensive communications infrastructure was no longer needed. Many African people now have access to smartphones, thus to communication- and information networks, and begin to reshape prize constellations and the global economy. Because of its restructuring effects, the impact of ICTs is relevant in all areas of the global economy. The global trend towards urbanization is similarly related to ICTs. Currently, we approach the global economy via data on national economies. But this might be about to change, as global mega-cities develop into global knowledge and financial hubs, building their own networks. In 2040, 80 percent of the global production, global GDP, global consumption, global exchange might be concentrated in 70 to 80 global cities or city regions.



Technology is also linked to the second wave of global change – the tectonic global power shift – in the way that investment in technology and knowledge in emerging economies are growing rapidly. We are not only facing economic and political power shifts, but also a remaking of the global science and research system itself. From my perspective, international cooperation in the field of science and technology research between "old powers" and "new powers", between Western countries and non-Western countries is extremely important for two reasons: First, we need to pool know-how in order to solve core global challenges and to develop patterns for managing the global commons. Interaction and cooperation in the field of science and technology is especially important for the creation of knowledge that is "better" in any way. For instance, in the field of adaptation policies to the impacts of climate change, most of the knowledge on how societies and local communities actually work or respond under these conditions exists in non-Western societies. The generation of knowledge is context dependent. We need to interact with colleagues from the respective countries for mutual learning and common knowledge improvement. My second argument is that, as an effect of the global power shift, traditional development cooperation is losing legitimacy. Many of these societies, from China to Peru, from Kenya to Vietnam, are no longer interested in our usual business, in our "aid-packages", our money, our experts or our concepts. What they are more interested in is true and reciprocal knowledge exchange and joint knowledge creation. Therefore, investments in respective forms and institutions of knowledge exchange and creation will be a central pillar of/for future oriented development cooperation or international cooperation and beneficial for all partners involved. Joint knowledge creation is a precondition for joint action and legitimate global governance initiatives.



The role of technologies with regard to the implications of climate change is crucial and multifaceted. In the German Advisory Council on Global Change we put forth suggestions concerning the transformation towards a low-carbon global economy. We are relatively optimistic in a technological sense. This statement is partly based on the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) research, which has been driven by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, one of our colleagues, who is working on energy modeling. The perspective there is that we know which kind of technologies we need for the transformation into a low-carbon or even zero-carbon economy. We can even calculate the investment costs and structures of different countries and regions. But we do know relatively little about the transformation processes of entire societies, economies and, eventually, the international system towards low-carbon systems. The transformation towards a low-carbon society is a "great transformation". In the entire history of mankind there might be only two examples for such a profound change: the industrial revolution 250 years ago and the Neolithic revolution 10.000 years ago, which induced the practices of agriculture. Today, we thus witness the third great transformation: the decoupling from fossil resources, from high-carbon to zero-carbon. To achieve the 2° Celsius goal, a complete decarbonization of the basic infrastructures of the global economy (the energy systems, the urban infrastructures and systems, the land use systems) is required – within a very limited period of time, until 2070. Comprehensive knowledge is key to achieve this. Let me emphasize once more the significance of international cooperation in the field of science and technology research, particularly in the IPCC context. I am sure that politicians from China, India, or Brazil only accept what the IPCC is presenting as objective knowledge, as the stand of the art knowledge, because their national scientists are deeply involved. If this were a classical western-based knowledge project it would have resulted in a lack of legitimacy. In the case of global climate policy, it is obvious that investment in joint knowledge creation is also about creating legitimacy for joint action.





What are the main obstacles of the low-carbon transformation?



The first two great transformations have been evolutionary processes. No one "planned" the industrial revolution, not to mention the Neolithic revolution.  These have been evolutionary dynamics. The sustainability transformation instead needs to be a governed process right from the beginning. In our institute, we looked at different transformation dynamics, not only the really big ones, the Neolithic, industrial, and the current sustainability transformation. We also examined structural adjustment programs in Latin America and Africa, the collapse of communism at the end of the 80s, the abolition of slavery, and similar other key transformations of human societies. Based on this historical perspective, we have identified four main drivers of transformation: The first one is crisis, this is the most important one. Confronted with strong crises, society and probably also individuals react and change direction. The second important driver is very often technology and scientific (r)evolution. The third driver is vision: If you are confronted with a problem but you do not know where to go to, transformation becomes very difficult. The European Union is the product of a fresh vision among elites after World War II; the United Nations is a result of the disasters of the first half of the 20th century. Advancing a vision is an essential means to move or to transform in a goal-oriented manner. Sustainability, of course, is also a vision. The fourth and last driver of transformation is "knowledge": you know that you have a certain problem constellation, and though the crisis is still not there, you react based on your knowledge in a preventive way.



For the low-carbon transformation, the fourth driver currently is absolutely key. We are able to address problems which would otherwise become much worse in the future, although the climate crisis is latent still – in contrast to, for example, the financial crisis, which is more visible in its effects. The impacts of a global warming of 4 or 5 degrees are still not visible. This makes for a huge difference. In fact, humans are not very good at acting and transforming significantly based on knowledge only. In combination with visible, tangible crises, knowledge is a strong driver of change, but without crisis, it is merely sufficient. Transformations based on knowledge and preventive action only are rare. The ozone hole is one positive example; solving the problem was possible because it required less complex technological change, affecting few industries only. Human beings are risk-averse in a sense, we are conservative, we do not like to change rapidly; we are path-dependent. John Maynard Keynes once said: "It is easy to develop new concepts and ideas. The difficult thing is to forget the old ones". Therefore, scientific tools are needed in order to sketch out future scenarios. Based on scientific knowledge, we need to convince our societies, our political decision-makers that it is necessary and possible to transform societies and economies towards sustainability – in order to avoid disruptive change in the earth system. Pushing towards sustainability at a point where the crisis has not yet materialized implies a specific and new role for science in managing global dynamics. Organizing a deep transformation towards sustainability avoiding significant crises driven by Earth system changes would be a cultural learning process – a civilizational shift.





What are the effects of growing multipolarity for global governance processes?



To start optimistically, I would argue that in contrast to historical situations in which this kind of tectonic power shifts led to conflicts or even wars, the current situation is different. The world is highly interconnected and economic interdependencies are stronger than ever. Charles Kupchan is differentiating between "war", "cold peace" and "warm peace". I think that a big "war" is not very probable, and "cold peace" is what we are in actually. "Warm peace" would be cooperative global governance: we identify our problems, have a joint problem analysis, and subsequently start acting cooperatively on them. But this does not describe the contemporary situation. While there are no severe global conflicts, we do not solve many of the global interdependency problems.



There are many barriers to global cooperation and I would like to mention two or three of those. The first one consists of power conflicts and power struggles. Hopefully realists such as John Mearsheimer are not right in claiming that "a peaceful rise of China is not possible". But the fundamental point remains that the re-organization and shuffling of power resources is rendering cooperation extremely difficult. The second point is that all the important global actors currently have severe domestic challenges to manage. The European countries are coping with the European dept crisis. Similarly, the United States is concerned with financial turbulences and rising social inequalities. China has to keep its annual growth rate of about 8 to 12 per cent and meanwhile stabilize its rapid modernization process. In India, there is still a large group of people suffering from poverty. So, managing that and trying to be a responsible global actor at the same time is not easy at all. In brief, all actors that we would like to see taking on a more responsible role on the global level are overcommitted domestically.



There is consensus among different disciplines on what cooperation is actually about. At the Centre for Global Cooperation Research we did a study on The Behavioural Dimensions of International Cooperation (2013) based on insights of very different disciplines – evolutionary biology, social anthropology, cognitive sciences, psychology, political sciences, behavioral economics – to find out what the basic mechanisms are which help human beings to cooperate at any scale towards global corporation in a world of nine billion people. Finally, we identified seven factors promoting cooperation: trust, communication, joint we-identities, reputation, fairness, enforcement – and reciprocity, which is the most fundamental prerequisite. These factors form an enable environment for cooperation and they are manmade. In contexts, actor constellations, systems, in which these basic mechanisms of cooperation are strong, they help to embed power dynamics, to solve social dilemma problems and to manage interdependencies. In contrast, contexts, actor constellations, and systems in which theses basic mechanisms of cooperation are weak, will be driven mainly by power dynamics and struggles. By looking at these factors one immediately understands why the G20 context is so difficult. We have been able to create and to well establish these factors in our old settings; in the European Union, the Western world, the transatlantic community. But now we are sitting together with new actors rather unknown. The G7/G8 world – the OECD driven and the western driven global economy and global politics – has moved towards G20 since it was acknowledged that one cannot manage any global turbulence without emerging economies. The G20 was created or rather called to meet in 2008, a few days after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers when many feared the collapse of the world's financial markets. Most western economies were highly indebted, whereas the emerging economies, especially China, were holding large currency reserves. From a behavioral perspective we have to invest in these basic factors of cooperation in the G 20 context in order to create the essential preconditions of joint action to solve the big global problems. This represents a long-term project, and unfortunately many of these global problems are highly challenging from the time perspective: a tension derives from the gap between time pressure in many of these areas and the time it probably needs to build up these basic mechanisms of cooperation. In fact, the major feeling is that international cooperation is even weaker now than a decade ago. I usually visualize the current situation of the G20 as a round table with 20 seats but no one is sitting there. Charles Kupchan's "No one's world" or Ian Bremmer's "The G0 world" deal with the same problem: international cooperation, global governance is currently so difficult, although all these interdependency problems rendered the problem of managing the global commons fully obvious. If you talk to our Foreign Ministers or Finance Ministers or Chancellors and Presidents, they of course all know exactly what is out there in terms of globalization impacts. But organizing the necessary global consensus and the governance and cooperation structures is tremendously difficult.





How far is the discipline of development research affected by global change?



This is a complex question, to which I do not have a definite answer. The whole field of development research is currently about to get redefined. In the past, the concept of development was clear: On the one side, there was the developed world, the OECD-world, consisting of 35-40 countries and on the other side, the "underdeveloped" part of the world, all other countries. Understanding the differences between developed and developing, along with thinking about the basic drivers of modernization and wealth creation in less developed countries was at the core of development research for a long period. How can poor countries become rich and as developed as OECD countries already are?



Today, it is highly questionable if even the broader categories of "development research" still serve to analyze the new realities. Do we currently still need "development economists", and how would they differ from classical "economists" doing research in those European countries suffering most from the debt crisis, high unemployment and weak institutions? Situations in many OECD countries nowadays look like what one would expect from a still developing or emerging economy, and the other way around. So, what distinguishes development research? This is an important question. Studying non-OECD countries, do we still need development research based governance theories or democratization theories – thus, theories that are systematically different from those we apply in our research on OECD countries? The discipline of development research is under immense pressure. This debate is linked to the second wave of global change we talked about: the post-western world order, emerging economies catching up, convergence trends in the global economy.



If you look at the role of international technology transfer, the same scenario arises: the North-South, donor-recipient categories have dissolved. Technology transfer has lost its distinct direction, and it is much more reciprocal and diffuse than it used to be. There are several studies currently pointing to the fact that investment rates in R&D and in technology creation are growing fast in several regions around the globe, whereas in many OECD-countries, investment is stagnating, or even decreasing. The whole map of knowledge, if you like to say so, is about to undergo deep changes. This implies that the common assumption that knowledge is based in OECD countries and transferred to the South via development cooperation is just not working any longer. We need new patterns of cooperation between different countries in this area. And we need research on global development dynamics which will be different from classical development research which has been based on the assumption of a systemic North-South divide for a long time.







How do institutions such as the World Bank react to the emerging and redefined agenda of development?



The current reorientation of the World Bank as a Knowledge Bank originates from the assumption that knowledge is just as important as money for global development. The second point is that more and more of their partners in non-OECD countries, classical developing and emerging economies, are more and more interested in the knowledge pools of the World Bank and less in their experts. And: dynamic developing countries and emerging economies are even more interested in investments in their own knowledge systems and joint knowledge creation with the World Bank. The old North-South knowledge transfer model is eroding. You might say that there currently are two contradictory global trends: on the one hand via social media and the Internet, knowledge is being widely distributed – broader than ever before and actually, theoretically accessible at any point in the world –, on the other hand the proliferation of knowledge is accompanied with access restriction and control, and the growing privatization of knowledge. Aiming to play a constructive role in collaborative knowledge generation, the World Bank invests a lot in building up freely accessible data bases and open research tools, including the provision of governance or development indicators of any kind. However, this is a difficult process that is developing slowly.



The World Bank is currently undergoing several basic re-orientations. The structures inside of the World Bank are about to become less hierarchical and more horizontal. Originally, the World Bank has been a much more western dominated organization as the Bretton Woods institutions were formed by the United States and its allies. If you look into the governance structures of the World Bank today, it is still largely dominated by OECD countries, but you can notice that this is changing. It is a global organization but 90 % of people working there have been studying at Anglo-Saxon universities. Actors especially from emerging economies have been criticizing that for long, claiming that the World Bank as a global organization should have to be represented by a global citizenship. Although this had slowly started to change already, all the knowledge and all the qualification procedures still remained very western dominated. So they asked the World Bank to diversify its partner structures, to reach out and cooperate with research institutions from around the world. This is what the World Bank is trying to do at the moment, which is really a break with its culture. Because even though the World Bank is a global organization, it has always been a very inward-looking organization. The World Bank was strong, with fantastic professionals and researchers inside, but without cooperating tools. Now they are trying to broaden their cooperation structures and to learn from and together with other institutions.





What are the opportunities and difficulties of big data analysis for global development?



Access to any kind of data is important for any kind of knowledge creation. It has been very limited for many developing countries over a very long time. So, thinking about how to assure access to serious data is significant. This would be my first point. My second point is that, when it comes to big data and the question of managing large amounts of indicators on, for example, cross-country or cross-sector modeling, I think the new technologies are opening up new research possibilities and opportunities. Big data provides the opportunity to identify patterns. Looking for similar dynamics in very different systems is a very interesting exercise, because you get deeper insights into the basic dynamics of systems. This is what I have learned from my colleague Nakicenovic, whom I have mentioned before, and who is working on the Global Energy Assessment, or from Juergen Kurths, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who is studying basic structures and dynamics of very different complex systems like air traffic networks, global infrastructures and social media networks. Managing big data allows you to see patterns which cannot be seen if you only work with case studies. However, to understand the dynamics of countries and sectors, new actor constellations or communities, you need to go into detail and in this specific moment, big data is only the starting point, the background: you also need qualified, serious, very often qualitative data on the ground. Big data and qualified, specific data: they complement each other.



For sure, an important aspect of big data is that for the most part, it is gathered and stored by private businesses. We started this interview talking about global commons and we actually just defined a global commons: data on development should be a global commons, and we need standards and rules of managing those. Private actors could play a role, but within a set of rules defined by societies and policies, and not the private business sector.









Dirk Messner is the Director of the "German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE)" since 2003 and teaches at the Institute of Political Science, University of Duisburg-Essen. He is Co-Director of the "Käte Hamburger Kolleg / Centre for Global Cooperation Research (KHK/GCR)", University Duisburg-Essen, which was established in 2012. He furthermore is Co-Chair of the "German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)", member of the "China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development", member of the "Global Knowledge Advisory Commission" of the World Bank and member of the "European Commission's Scientific Advisory Board for EU development policy". Dirk Messner's research interests and work areas include globalisation and global governance, climate change, transformation towards low carbon economies, and development policy. He directed many international research programs and thus created a close international research network.



related links:


Profile at German Development Institute
Messner, Dirk / Guarín, Alejandro / Haun, Daniel (eds.) (2013): The Behavioural Dimensions of International Cooperation, Global Cooperation Research Papers 1, Centre for Global Cooperation Research (pdf)


Read Jing Gu, John Humphrey, and Dirk Messner's (2007) Global Governance and Developing Countries: The Implications of the Rise of China here (pdf)


Messner, Dirk (2007): The European Union: Protagonist in a
Multilateral World Order or Peripheral Power
in the »Asia-Pacific« Century? (pdf)


Print version of this Talk (pdf)

La popolazione mondiale è in continua espansione e la crescita demografica ed economica inducono allo sfruttamento progressivo dell'ambiente ed al depauperamento delle risorse naturali (acqua ed energia in particolare), con conseguenti impatti potenzialmente importanti sul cambiamento globale. Si rende, pertanto, necessaria ed urgente una più efficiente gestione delle risorse basata sulla rielaborazione di obiettivi sostenibili di politiche e strategie ambientali e sulla riduzione del consumo delle risorse, promuovendo la transizione da un modello di economia lineare ad uno circolare, costituito da un ciclo continuo di sviluppo positivo che preserva e migliora il capitale naturale, ottimizzando l'utilizzo delle risorse a tutte le scale. Come noto, l'Ingegneria Naturalistica (IN) utilizza le piante come materiale da costruzione nelle opere per la riqualificazione ambientale e paesaggistica del territorio. Le opere di IN sono infatti a basso impatto ambientale ed in grado di innescare processi di rinaturalizzazione che favoriscono la biodiversità, offrendo una promettente strategia di mitigazione e adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Fondamentale per il raggiungimento di questi obiettivi, risulta essere quindi l'uso di materiali adeguati, sostenibili, di facile reperimento e basso costo. Tenuto conto della grande disponibilità dei residui derivanti dalla potatura annuale delle viti (sarmenti) e dallo spiaggiamento annuale delle foglie di Posidonia oceanica (banquette) in Sicilia, la presente tesi ha come obiettivo principale la descrizione e l'analisi di questi nuovi materiali organici di scarto in relazione alla possibilità di uso degli stessi in opere di Ingegneria Naturalistica. Ogni anno infatti la potatura dei vigneti produce un elevato quantitativo di residui (sarmenti), che rappresentano una biomassa da smaltire; nel contempo, il fenomeno dello spiaggiamento dei residui di P. oceanica è percepito come un disagio dai cittadini, entrando in conflitto con alcune attività economiche (turismo, stabilimenti balneari, ecc). Nonostante il fondamentale ruolo ecologico che rivestono le fanerogame marine sia per limitare l'erosione della costa che per favorire la formazione del sistema dunale costiero, la presenza di residui di P. oceanica lungo la costa può comportare la riduzione del valore turistico delle spiagge; conseguentemente è richiesta alle amministrazioni locali la rimozione delle banquette ed il loro conferimento in discarica. L'utilizzo della biomassa prodotta comporta quindi un duplice vantaggio: la risoluzione del problema dello smaltimento dei residui prodotti e la creazione di nuovi prodotti, locali ed a basso costo, riutilizzabili anche nel campo del risanamento ambientale. La biomassa residuale viene vista in questo modo come una risorsa e non più un rifiuto, acquisendo un valore sia dal punto di vista ecologico che dal punto di vista economico Nell'ottica dell'economia circolare, i sarmenti sono stati assemblati in forma di fascina per costituire l'elemento base per realizzare il modulo di una fascinata, opera lineare di IN con funzioni antierosive, consolidanti e di stabilizzazione, mentre, i residui di P. oceanica sono stati utilizzati come substrato di coltivazione per rendere "viva" l'opera dopo la messa a dimora di specie autoctone al suo interno. Nella tesi sono state eseguite una serie di analisi e sperimentazioni volte: i) a caratterizzare i due materiali per valutarne l'idoneità come costituenti della fascina, ii) ad individuare le specie vegetali biotecnicamente più idonee a rendere viva l'opera, iii) ad eseguire una prima valutazione sulla funzionalità dell'opera nel suo insieme utilizzando osservazioni fatte su un piccolo prototipo di fascinata messa in opera nei campi sperimentali dell'Università di Palermo. Viene infine presentata una tecnica costruttiva innovativa delle fascinate oggetto di brevettazione da parte dell'Università degli Studi di Palermo e sviluppata nel corso delle attività di questo dottorato di ricerca. Con l'obiettivo di stimare indicatori di resistenza e durabilità delle fascine sperimentali sono state, in primo luogo, individuate quattro aziende vitivinicole che operano nel territorio siciliano, disponibili a fornire a titolo gratuito i sarmenti appena potati. Le prove meccaniche di resistenza a flessione (valutazione di tensioni di rottura e modulo di elasticità) sono state quindi eseguite su 122 provini di 8 differenti cultivar di sarmento (Cabernet, Inzolia, Nero d'Avola, Grecanico, Grillo, Chardonnay, Sirah e Catarratto). I provini di sarmento, di lunghezza L=10 cm ed umidità "normale" (12%), sono stati selezionati con criterio di assenza di nodi ed imperfezioni, uniformità di diametro ed asse longitudinale rettilineo (cilindricità). Sotto l'ipotesi di validità della legge di Hook, le prove di resistenza a flessione eseguite secondo lo schema a tre punti (3 point bending test) sino alla rottura delle fibre inferiori dei provini, hanno permesso di ricavare il modulo di elasticità longitudinale (lungo le fibre), E, e la tensione di rottura sulla base dei diagrammi sforzo/deformazione e della forza a rottura. Dai primi risultati si rileva come i vitigni Cabernet, Grillo e Sirah presentino le migliori caratteristiche di resistenza flessionale (maggiore rigidità) con netta prevalenza del Sirah (4878.6 MPa), mentre più deformabili risultano essere i sarmenti di Grecanico, Chardonnay, Catarratto e Nero d'Avola (1200 - 2000 MPa). I valori maggiori di tensioni di rottura si riscontrano invece per il Cabernet (70 MPa). Nel complesso, mettendo in relazione le tensioni di rottura campionarie ai corrispondenti moduli di elasticità, le migliori caratteristiche di resistenza e di maggiore durabilità riscontrate sono quelle del Cabernet e dello Chardonnay, che possono quindi trovare potenziale impiego come materiale da costruzione nelle opere di Ingegneria Naturalistica. Pertanto, i sarmenti di Cabernet sono stati utilizzati per il confezionamento delle fascine nell'installazione sperimentale, insieme al Catarratto che è la cultivar maggiormente coltivata nella regione e che, conseguentemente, produce il maggior quantitativo di biomassa annuale. L'area di prelievo dei residui di P. oceanica è stata individuata nella costa prospicente l'abitato di Custonaci in provincia di Trapani. La banquette dalla quale sono stati prelevati i residui presenta un'altezza di 4 m e si estende per centinaia di metri lungo la costa rocciosa alle spalle di Monte Cofano. I residui di P. oceanica spiaggiata sono stati rimossi meccanicamente e depositati in un'area di stoccaggio appositamente realizzata nel vicino Parco Sub urbano di Custonaci. Allo scopo di valutare l'abbattimento della salinità a mezzo dilavamento naturale è stato studiato il processo di infiltrazione che si attua nei residui di P. oceanica accumulata nei siti di stoccaggio. Un contributo alla caratterizzazione idrologica dei residui di P. oceanica è stato fornito eseguendo una sperimentazione su campioni di residui sottoposti ad una pioggia di fissata intensità, al fine di mettere a punto un modello semplificato di infiltrazione, valido per ammassi porosi altamente permeabili. Più precisamente il modello di infiltrazione a base fisica adottato stima il tempo di ritardo, (o di primo gocciolamento) ovvero il tempo necessario affinchè il fronte di umidità, a partire dall'inizio dell'evento piovoso, raggiunga la base dell'ammasso. Il protocollo di sperimentazione è stato studiato in modo da variare progressivamente le condizioni iniziali di umidità sullo stesso campione così da non alterare le caratteristiche fisiche del campione stesso rendendo omogenei i risultati. I campioni di residui di P. oceanica, preparati in laboratorio con una densità apparente, pari a quella misurata su campioni indisturbati nel sito di stoccaggio, sono stati posti in anelli metallici di diametro, D = 200 mm liberamente drenanti al fondo, chiusi con tessuto non tessuto e rete metallica di contenimento. Le prove di infiltrazione sono state condotte con un simulatore di pioggia di diametro pari a quello degli anelli, alimentato con una bottiglia di Mariotte (pressione costante). Nella sequenza delle prove le condizioni iniziali di umidità sono variate da 0.030 a 0.197, mentre il volume drenato, si è incrementato da 0.030 a 0.32. La condizione iniziale di umidità ha influenzato i tempi di ritardo che sono passati dai 3.87 minuti della prima prova ai 13.62 minuti dell'ultima prova. La densità apparente, stimata empiricamente in funzione dell'altezza H del campione, ha mostrato una variazione, da 0.130 a 0.140 g/cm3 che ha comportato una riduzione della porosità. Dalle prove eseguite è emerso come la compattazione dei residui di Posidonia abbia giocato un ruolo determinante durante il processo di infiltrazione. Sulla base di questa osservazione il modello teorico di infiltrazione adottato, valido su mezzi altamente porosi ma a porosità costante, è stato modificato introducendo sia l'effetto della compattazione che quello della parzializzazione della superficie effettivamente interessata dal processo di infiltrazione. La legge di infiltrazione tarata sui dati sperimentali per valori dell'intensità di pioggia variabili da i=20 a i=100 mm/h, per un ammasso di P. oceanica, messa a confronto con l'analoga legge di infiltrazione relativa ad un terreno con stesse caratteristiche idrologiche della P. oceanica, ha evidenziato in definitiva la differenza di comportamento dei due media. I residui di P. oceanica mostrano rispetto al terreno, tempi di ritardo molto brevi (infiltrazione veloce), poco variabili sia con l'intensità che con le condizioni iniziali di umidità. Per condizioni di umidità iniziale superiori a 0.15 i tempi di ritardo per il campione dei residui di P. oceanica tendono a crescere all'aumentare dell'umidità indicando, in questo campo, una lieve riduzione della permeabilità del mezzo. L'abbattimento della salinità nei residui di P. oceanica è stato valutato in laboratorio simulando in un campione un processo di lavaggio a pressione costante. I campioni di residui di P. oceanica appena spiaggiati mostrano un elevato valore di conducibilità elettrica (CE) iniziale nell'acqua di drenaggio ( 20 mS/cm) ed un rapido abbattimento del contenuto in sali già con i primi tre lavaggi unitari (di peso pari al peso del materiale dilavato). Gli ulteriori sei lavaggi hanno affinato la riduzione di CE fino al raggiungimento di valori accettabili all'utilizzo agricolo ( 2 mS/cm). Assunta una densità della P. oceanica pari a 0,1 g/cm3 un lavaggio unitario di un ammasso alto un metro corrisponde allora ad un volume d'acqua specifico di 100 mm. I valori estremi del processo di lavaggio dei residui appena spiaggiati sono stati confermati da analisi di salinità svolte secondo metodo standard con diluizione 1:20. L'abbattimento del contenuto salino dei residui di P. oceanica accumulati nel deposito all'aperto di Custonaci è avvenuto, in modo sostenibile, a mezzo di un dilavamento naturale durato poco più di un anno che ha ridotto il valore di CE a 2,8 mS/cm. Tale riduzione concorda con le sperimentazioni fatte, infatti, tenuto conto che la precipitazione media annua alla stazione pluviografica di S. Vito Lo Capo vale 474 mm e che lo spessore medio dell'ammasso è di 1 m, il deposito è stato soggetto a circa 6 lavaggi unitari che sono bastati per abbattere significativamente il valore di CE. Ulteriori lavaggi unitari applicati ad un campione di P. oceanica prelevato dal deposito hanno portato ad un CE pari a 1,8 mS/cm, dopo il primo lavaggio, che si è ridotto ulteriormente del 33,3% (CE=1,2 mS/cm) al terzo lavaggio unitario. L'individuazione delle specie vegetali biotecnicamente più idonee a rendere viva l'opera è stata condotta a mezzo di prove di resistenza a trazione, Tr, delle radici. Il prelievo delle specie vegetali autoctone da utilizzare per rendere vive le fascine è stato eseguito in 5 differenti stazioni nella provincia di Palermo. Gli elevati valori di tensioni di rottura delle radici delle specie vegetali prese in esame nello studio (A. mauritanicus, O. miliaceum, H. coronarium. M. lupulina, L. spartum, B. distachyon, R. officinalis, R. coriaria e S. junceum) confermano la loro adeguatezza nel campo del ripristino ambientale, della stabilizzazione dei versanti e nella prevenzione delle frane. In particolare S. junceum ha mostrato le migliori caratteristiche biotecniche in termini di legge tensioni/diametri e quindi è stato individuato come materiale da utilizzare preferibilmente per rendere vive le fascine. Da un'analisi più approfondita delle radici di S. junceum che crescono nelle due differenti giaciture di piano e di pendenza (22°- 28°- 40°), è stato possibile evidenziare come la giacitura in pendenza influenzi significativamente sia l'architettura complessiva del sistema radicale che lo stato tensionale dello stesso. L'indagine è stata eseguita in tre siti di prelievo (A, B e C) tutti in provincia di Palermo Nelle prove di trazione effettuate, in accordo con il maggiore sviluppo e la differente architettura radicale, i campioni di S. junceum prelevati in giacitura di pendenza hanno presentato i valori di tensione a rottura mediamente più alti. In corrispondenza dei diametri più bassi (0,5 mm) i valori di tensione a rottura sono risultati molto simili (61-70 MPa) nelle due giaciture mentre in corrispondenza dei diametri maggiori (>1 mm) la tensione a rottura dei campioni in piano risulta minore rispetto ai campioni in pendenza. Il test di covarianza (ANCOVA) applicato al campione delle tensioni di rottura con covariata il Diametro e variabili indipendenti il sito (A, B, C) e la giacitura (piano, pendenza) ha permesso di considerare non significativa la differenza tra i siti (suoli) e significativa la differenza tra le due giaciture. Nell'installazione delle fascine sperimentali si è stimata la crescita delle piantine in fitocella di S. junceum messe a dimora in diversi substrati. Dalle prime evidenze le piante cresciute sul substrato costituito dai residui di P. oceanica hanno presentato la maggior percentuale di attecchimento e la maggiore crescita epigea. Tale risultato può essere, con buona probabilità, attribuito alle proprietà fisiche ed alla capacità isolante dei residui. Difatti, la maggiore capacità drenante del substrato costituito dai residui di P. oceanica, rilevato durante le prove di infiltrazione, sembra aver giocato un ruolo positivo nell'attecchimento e sviluppo della pianta. Il controllo del microclima all'interno delle fascine è stato eseguito con misure di temperatura rilevate ad intervalli di 30 minuti da sensori hobo data logger inseriti ad una profondità di 5 cm, lasciati indisturbati per tutta la durata delle misure (dal 14.07.2017 al 20.11.2017). I dati sono stati misurati: a) nell'ambiente atmosferico, b) all'interno dei residui di P. oceanica contenuti nelle fascine e c) nel terreno contiguo all'istallazione. In totale sono stati raccolti 6201 valori di temperatura per ognuno dei tre sensori. Le misure di temperatura hanno evidenziato l'elevata capacità isolante dei residui di P. oceanica che si è manifestata con una significativa attenuazione, a livello dell'apparato radicale, delle temperature massime (36.6°C) nei residui di Posidonia e minime giornaliere (9.7°C), rispetto alle temperature massime (55.1°C) e minime (5.6°C) misurate nell'ambiente esterno nei due periodi considerati (estate e autunno). Le temperature medie più basse si sono registrate nei residui di Posidonia all'interno delle fascine, sia nel periodo estivo (25.7±3.6) che nell'arco temporale delle misure (21.8±5.2). È interessante osservare come il ruolo che tale materiale ha nel campo dell'edilizia come isolante termico possa risultare di interesse anche nel campo della coltivazione di specie vegetali. Infine, la ricerca svolta nei tre anni di dottorato ed i risultati conseguiti hanno portato al miglioramento della tecnica di realizzazione della fascinata le cui metodologie sono oggetto di una domanda di brevetto depositata dall'Università di Palermo. I vantaggi della nuova metodologia rispetto alle tecnologie attuali, possono sintetizzarsi come segue: • Riutilizzo sostenibile di materiali organici di scarto (sarmenti e P. oceanica spiaggiata e dilavata) con conseguente economia di realizzazione di una fascinata (opera I.N. lineare di consolidamento e protezione idrogeologica). • Meccanizzazione della produzione dei manufatti modulari (fascina) costituenti l'opera, che nell'attuale pratica prevede un assemblaggio solo di tipo manuale, con conseguente riduzione dei tempi di costruzione e dei costi ad esso associati. • Il prodotto proposto rende "strutturale", con un sistema di collegamento dei moduli, un'opera che staticamente non è resistente alle azioni di spinta delle terre. • Riduzione dei tempi di messa in opera del manufatto lineare. Con la tecnica innovativa avanzata, grazie alla caratteristica strutturale del manufatto, si potranno realizzare opere su più piani (non più di tre) o opere chiuse. I residui di potatura della vite ed i residui di P. oceanica sono stati utilizzati anche nell'ambito di un progetto, finanziato dalla Comunità Europea, al Comune di Custonaci dal titolo "Primi interventi finalizzati a contenere il fenomeno della desertificazione del territorio Comunale Parco sub-urbano Portella del Cerriolo". Recenti controlli di qualità dell'Unione Europea sulle opere realizzate con i suddetti materiali di scarto nel Parco sub-urbano Portella del Cerriolo a Custonaci, hanno evidenziato gli ottimi risultati raggiunti dal progetto. Per tale motivazione, La UE ha proposto la candidatura del suddetto progetto come best practices nell'area mediterranea per la lotta al fenomeno della desertificazione. L'uso dei due materiali, che rappresentano uno scarto di produzione agricola ed un rifiuto solido, ampiamente presenti sia in Sicilia che nella maggior parte dell'area mediterranea, si inquadra in un uso efficiente delle risorse (riuso sostenibile), nel risparmio economico ed energetico e nel pieno rispetto dell'ambiente. ; The world population is expanding continuously, and economic and demographic growth are leading to the exploitation of the environment and the reduction of natural resources (water and energy in particular), with potentially important impacts on global climate change. Therefore, more efficient management of resources is necessary, based on the reworking of sustainable objectives of environmental policies and strategies and lower consumption of resources, thus promoting the transition from a linear economy model to a circular one, consisting of a continuous positive development cycle that preserves and improves natural capital, optimizing the use of resources. Soil and Water Bioengineering uses plants as living building material in environmental and landscape development works. Such works with low environmental impact, promote biodiversity and, in addition, offer a promising strategy for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Thus, the use of adequate, sustainable, easy to find and low-cost materials are essential for the achievement of these objectives. Considering the great availability of residues resulting from the annual pruning of vines and the annual cleaning of beaches from the leaves of Posidonia oceanica in Sicily, the aim of this thesis is to describe and apply innovative Soil and Water Bioengineering techniques that involve the construction of modular structures made with organic waste materials, namely, the residues of vine pruning (vine shoots) and beachside P. oceanica (banquette). In fact, every year, the pruning of vines produces high quantity residues (vine shoots), which represent a biomass to be disposed. At the same time, the beaching of P. oceanica residues is considered a problem by the population. It conflicts with a number of economic activities (tourism, bathing establishments, etc.). Even though seagrasses have a fundamental ecological role to play in limiting coastal erosion and promoting the formation of the coastal dune system, the presence of P. oceanica residues along the coast can reduce the tourism value of beaches. As a result, local authorities are required to remove banquette and dispose of them in landfills. Therefore, the use of this biomass has a double beneficial effect. It constitutes a solution to the problem of waste disposal and an opportunity for the creation of local and low-cost new products. Moreover, this waste can also be used in the field of environmental restoration. Therefore, the residual biomass considered a resource and no longer as waste, and has ecological and economic value. From the viewpoint of the circular economy, vine shoots were assembled in the form of fascines to constitute the basic element used to create a fascinate module, a linear Soil and Water Bioengineering work with anti-erosive, consolidation and stabilization functions, while the residues of P. oceanica were used as a growing medium to render the work "alive" after planting with native species. A series of analyses and experiments were carried within the framework of the thesis, in order to i) characterize both materials and evaluate their suitability as constituents of fascines, ii) identify the most biotechnically suitable plant species for rendering the work "alive", and iii) evaluate the functionality of the work as a whole using observations made on a small prototype of fascinate set up in experimental fields at the University of Palermo. Finally, an innovative fascinates construction technique is presented, which is the object of patenting by the University of Palermo and was developed during the activities of this research doctorate. First of all, we identified four wine-producing companies operating in Sicily and available to provide vine shoots just after pruning and free of charge. In order to estimate the durability of the experimental fascines, mechanical tests were carried out in the laboratory (tensile strength and modulus of elasticity) on 122 samples of 8 different vine shoot cultivars (Cabernet, Inzolia, Nero d' Avola, Grecanico, Grillo, Chardonnay, Sirah and Catarratto). The vine shoot samples, L=10 cm long and "normal" humidity (12%), were selected based on the criteria of absence of knots and imperfections, uniformity of diameter and straight longitudinal axis (cylindricality). The abiotic (mechanical) durability of the vine shoots was then estimated by means of flexural strength tests and measurement of tensile strength. Under the hypothesis of validity of Hook's law, flexural strength tests were carried out according to the three-point scheme up to the rupture of the lower fibres of the samples, which allowed to obtain the longitudinal elasticity modulus E (along the fibres) and the tensile strengthon the basis of the force/deformation diagram and tensile strength. The first results show that Cabernet, Grillo and Sirah vine shoots have the best flexural strength characteristics (greater rigidity) with a clear prevalence of Sirah (4878.6 MPa), while the vine shoots of Grecanico, Chardonnay, Catarratto and Nero d' Avola (1200 - 2000 MPa) are the most deformable. The highest values of tensile strength were found for the Cabernet (70 MPa). Consequently, by linking sample tensile strength to the corresponding elasticity modules, Cabernet and Chardonnay display the best resistance and durability characteristics, and could be used potentially as a building material in Soil and Water Bioengineering works. Therefore, Cabernet vine shoots have been suggested and used for the packaging of fascines in the experimental installation, together with Catarratto, which is the variety most cultivated in the region and, consequently, produces the largest quantity of annual biomass. P. oceanica residues were collected on the coast of Custonaci, Trapani (Southern of Italy). The "banquette" from which the residues were obtained is 4 metres high and extends hundreds of metres along the rocky coast behind Monte Cofano. P. oceanica residues were removed mechanically and deposited in a storage area created in the nearby Custonaci Park. In order to evaluate the reduction of salinity by natural runoff, the infiltration process that takes place in the residues of P. oceanica accumulated at the storage sites was studied. The investigation carried out on samples of P. oceanica residues subjected to rain of fixed intensity, allowed the development of a simplified theoretical model, valid for highly permeable porous storage. Furthermore, an analysis was performed in order to characterise P. oceanica residues from a physical and hydrological point of view and verify the applicability of a physical infiltration model for the estimation of delay time, starting from the beginning of the rainy event and ending with the storage site. The experimental protocol was studied in order to modify gradually the initial humidity conditions of the same sample and not modify the physical characteristics of the sample for the results to be homogeneous. The samples of P. oceanica residues, prepared in the laboratory with an apparent density equal to that measured on undisturbed samples at the storage site, were placed in metal rings, D = 200 mm, with free draining at the bottom, closed with non-textile and metal mesh containment. The infiltration tests were conducted with a rain simulator equal in diameter to that of the rings, and connected to a Mariotte bottle. In the test sequence, the initial humidity conditions varied from 0.030 to 0.197, while the drained volume increased from 0.030 to 0.32. Modification of the initial humidity condition had an effect on delay times. In particular, the times, with certain dispersion, increased by initial humidity conditions from the initial values of 3.87 minutes for the first test to 13.62 minutes for the last test. The apparent density empirically estimated as a function of the height H of the sample, showed a variation from 0.130g/cm3 to 0.140 g/cm3 which resulted in a reduction of porosity. The tests carried out showed that the compaction of P. oceanica residues played a decisive role during the infiltration process. Following this observation, the infiltration model on highly porous media was modified by introducing the effect of both compaction and that of the surface actually affected by the infiltration process. The infiltration law calibrated on the experimental data for rain intensity values varying from i=20 to i=100 mm/h, for P. oceanica storage, compared with the analogous infiltration law relative to soil with the same hydrological characteristics as stored P. oceanica. The difference in behaviour of the two media was revealed. P. oceanica residues show very short delay times in relation to soil (fast filtration); small differences are measured in the intensity and the initial humidity conditions. While the soil shows a typical monotonous reduction in delay times, for P. oceanica there is a slight increase in time after a given initial humidity condition, which indicates a slight reduction in permeability of the medium in this field. The reduction of salinity in P. oceanica residues was evaluated in the laboratory by means of a constant pressure washing process. P. oceanica residue samples show a high initial electrical conductivity (EC) value in drainage water (20 mS/cm) and a rapid reduction of the salt content with the first three unit washes. The six additional washings refined EC reduction to an acceptable level for agricultural use (2 mS/cm). The extreme values of the residue washing process were confirmed by salinity analysis using the standard method with dilution 1:20. The reduction of the salt content of P. oceanica residues was also achieved in a sustainable way by means of natural runoff in open storage for more than one year (≈ 500 mm/year of rain). The measurements taken at the first unit wash showed an EC of 1.8 mS/cm, which was reduced by 33.3% (CE=1.2 mS/cm) after the second unit wash. The most biotechnically suitable plant species were then identified to make the work "alive" by means of laboratory tests of Tr tensile strength of the roots. The native plant species used to make the fascine "alive" were collected at 5 different stations in the province of Palermo. The high tensile strength values of the roots of the plants considered in the study (A. mauritanicus, O. miliaceum, H. coronarium. M. lupulina, L. spartum, B. distachyon, R. officinalis, R. Coriaria and S. junceum) confirm their suitability in the field of environmental restoration, slope stabilization and landslide prevention. In particular, S. junceum displayed the best biotechnological characteristics in relation to the tension/diameter law and has therefore been identified as a material to be used for making fascine "alive". A more detailed analysis of the morphological parameters of S. junceum roots, growing at two different positions (plane and slope of 22°- 28°- 40°), showed that the position on the slope significantly influences the root system of the plant and the overall architecture of the root system at the three sampling sites (A, B and C). In the tensile strength tests carried out, in accordance with the greater development and the different radical architecture, the samples of break strength values taken in a slope position showed the highest break strength values. As regards the lowest diameters (0.5 mm), the break strength values are similar (61-70 MPa) in the two positions, while for larger diameters (2 mm) the break strength values of plane samples are lower than those of slope samples. In fact, they range from 20 MPa to almost 80 MPa at site A, 20 MPa to 50 MPa at site B, and 20 MPa to 40 MPa at site C. In the experimental installation, we estimated the growth of S. junceum planted in different substrates. The first evidence shows that the plants grown on the substrate consisting of P. oceanica residues showed the highest percentage of rooting and the greatest aerial growth (121.3 cm). This result can, most probably, be attributed to the physical properties and insulating capacity of the residues. In fact, the increased draining capacity of the substrate of P. oceanica residues, detected during infiltration tests, may have played a positive role in plant rooting and development. The micro-climate inside the fascines was estimated with temperature measurements using hobo data logger sensors inserted at a depth of 5 cm from 14.07.2017 to 20.11.2017, carried out continuously and with a time interval of 30 minutes. The data were recorded: a) in the external environment, b) inside the P. oceanica residues contained in fascines and c) in the land adjacent to the installation. A total of 6201 temperature values were collected by each of the three sensors. The temperature measurements showed the high insulating capacity of the P. oceanica residues, which manifested itself with a significant attenuation, at root level, of the maximum temperatures (36.6°C) in P. oceanica residues and daily minimum temperatures (9.7°C), compared to the maximum temperatures (55.1°C) and minimum temperatures (5.6°C) measured in the external environment during the two periods considered (summer and autumn). The lowest average temperatures were recorded in P. oceanica residues inside fascines, both in the summer period (25.7±3.6) and throughout the measurement period (21.8±5.2). It is interesting to note that the thermal insulation role of this material in the building industry also applies to agriculture. Finally, the research carried out during the three years of doctoral studies has led to the improvement of the fascinate production technique, and this methodology is subject to a patent application filed by the University of Palermo. The benefits of the new methodology compared to current technologies can be summarised as follows: • The proposed product makes "structural", with a module connection system, a work frequently used in Soil and Water Bioengineering that is not statically resistant to the actions of soil thrust. • Sustainable reuse of organic waste materials with consequent economy of construction. • Mechanisation of modular manufactured products, which in current practice provides for assembly only by hand with consequent reduction of construction time and costs. • Reduction of installation time for hydrogeological protection structures. The advanced innovative technique, to be developed with future experimental installations, has provided for the construction of a modular building made with eco-compatible materials at low cost; vine pruning residues (vine shoots) and Posidonia oceanica beaches (banquette). Vine pruning residues and P. oceanica residues were also used in a project, funded by the European Community, to the Municipality of Custonaci entitled " Primi interventi finalizzati a contenere il fenomeno della desertificazione del territorio Comunale Parco sub-urbano Portella del Cerriolo". European Union quality controls on these works has shown the excellent results achieved with the waste materials. For this reason, the EU has suggested project application as "best practices" in the mediterranean area for combating desertification. The use of these two materials, namely agricultural production waste and solid waste which are widely available in both in Sicily and most of the Mediterranean area, constitutes an efficient use of resources (sustainable use) that is low-cost, energy efficient and totally respects the environment.

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Headquarters —FOR-HATS, SHOES, AND GENT'S FURNISHING. Sol« Ag**nt tor WALK-OVER SHOE ECKERT'S STORE. Prices Always Right Tlje Lutheran PuhlicmioJi Society No 1424 Arch Street, PH LADtLPHIA, PA Acknowledged Headquarters for anything and everything in the way of Books for Churches, Colleg'es, Families and Schools, and literature for Sunday Schools. PLEASE REMEMBER That by sending your orders to us you help build up and develop one of the church inj stitutionr- with pecuniary ad-vantage to yourself. Address HENRY S. BONER, Sup't. T^ M ERCURV The Literary Journal of Gettysburg College. VOL. XV GETTYSBURG, PA., NOVEMBER, 1907 No. 6 CONTENTS ABRAHAM LINCOLN GEO. \V. KESSLBR '08. * t ANOTHER BOPHOMORE TRICK A. E. C'HAMliBRLLN '08. THREE GREAT PHILOSOPHERS Socrates—Part II. CHAKI.ES W. HEATHCOTE '05. GUSTAVUS ADOLPHUS HAKRV DOLLMAN '08 14 THE TREND OF GOVERNMENT E. A MILLER '08. 18 THANKSGIVING DAY EARL J. BOWMAN '11: 22 CRISIS E. F. RICE '10. 2;5 THE METAMORPHOSIS J. F. MERCER '08. 26 EDITORIALS EXCHANGES 2!) 32 THE MERCURY ABRAHAM LINCOLN. (IKO. W. KJESSLER, '08. ROM the union of the colonies, from the straight-ening of their purposes and the crossing of their blood, slow perfecting through a century, came he who stands as the first typical American, the first who comprehended within himself all the strength andgen- • tleness, all the majesty and grace of this republic—Abraham Lincoln.'' Tell the story of the brightest star in your galaxy of popular heroes, of one who. rising from Lowliest origin, of one who, un-aided by any of the advantages of education or culture or good family, or good looks or social graces, of one who. entirely self-taughl and self-trained, of one who. obliged to fighl all his life againsl adverse circumstances, of one who; with a world against him, and with no other weapon than an unquenchable Love for right and justice, anil with an immovable conviction thai truth will be, must he victorious in the end. dared all and conquered all. and when you have told that story, compare it with that of Abraham Lincoln, and then tell me which is the more illustri-ous, which the more inspiring of the two. There has never Lived a hero whose life and deeds have so kin-dled a love of true heroism in the hear! of the reader as does the story of the life of Lincoln. It is almost impossible for von to rise from the reading of his biography, and not have a morM as the greatest calamity to the South next to the failure of the confederacy; and all the nations of the earth vied with each other in doing reverence to bis memory, and in sym-pathizing with the nation for its irreparable loss. What was the miracle that wrought the mighty change within so short a time? It was. thst of all, the simplicity of his nature. His was a mind as open as the woodland in which he was raised; his a soul as dear and sunny as the sky under which lie was born. A com-moner bv birth, a commoner he remained all his life. Honors could never spoil him: position could never make him forget his worse than bumble birth—a childhood with little of a mother's eaxe ,"■ of a father's guidance, with scarcely any schooling, with but few books, few friends, few of those pleasures that make m THE MERCURY childhood a happy memory. He never tried, not even when in the zenith of his glory, to assume a polish or grace or manner that was not his by nature or training. This plainness it was that kepi him elose to the great majority of the people whose kinsman he was by birth and fortune. Being of the common people, he knew their wants, he had iiis ear close to their hearts, and when lie said and did a thing it was the utterance or the deed of the people incarnate in himself. What a beautiful say-ing that was of his, "God must love the common people, or He would not have made so many of them." What a flash of genius in that answer of his, to the question what his coat of arms would be, "A pair of shirt-sleeves." The second cause that wrought that miricle lay in his sterling Honesty. Other men have risen from lowly estates to positions of eminence, but seldom with the aid of such uncompromising integrity as that which distinguished the life'of Lincoln. Ene-mies derided, newspapers earricatured him, but no one could ever point a finger of calumny at his honor or honesty. Almost unlimited was the power he possessed, vast was the national treasure under bis administration, yet no one was ever able to say that lie used his power for personal glqry or disposed of treasure for personal ends. \o one was ever able to charge him with consulting other interests than those of his country, or of seeking any other welfare than that of his people. His very face disarmed suspicion. He never mingled enough with society to have learned the art of posing or dissembling. His greatness lay in his goodness. Remarkable as was the power with which lie could bear abuse, bis ability to forgive was more remarkable still That beautiful saying of his in his inaugural address:"With malice toward none, uitb charily toward all." was the guiding principle of his entire public career, and often under most trying and vexing condi-tions. He could afford to be honest because lie never sought an honor and was never ruled by ambition. "Whatever office he held sought him; whatever honor lie had came unsolicited. When advised by friends one day to change a certain expression in an address he was about to deliver, lest it might lose him votes and lead to his defeat, he replied that that expression was his ma-tured conviction, that it was the truth and the whole truth, and THE MERCURY that he could better afford defeat with that expression than vic-torv without it. . It was in that sacred regard lor right wherein lay another ,aUse oi thai marvellous change in attitude of the nation toward one whom, hut a short time before the leaders scorned or dis-trusted, or whose ability to lead the nation through one of the areat crises even his friends seriously questioned. He had "een slavery in all its sinfulness, and he had sworn to himselt that if ever he should have the power, he would, with God s aid, Kive i, the blow that would crush it forever. He never forgot tlm1 pledge ■ "There is but one question before the American people" "said he early in his career, "Is slavery right or wrong?' and until that question is answered peace is impossible, aud the union is in danger." And all fearless of the conse-quent- to his political opportunities, he continued, saying : «You cannot, yon dare not say that slavery is right! Have the manhood then to sav that it is wrong, and the courage to stand bv your conviction. History, through the centuries, has been Aching us that .night makes right! Let it be our mission m this nineteenth century to reverse the maxim and to declare that right makes might !" Thcv who were present at that speech saw Ins lace, that at other times was almost ugly, made beautiful by the ecstasy of his wrath saw his stature, already six feet four inches m height, grow int. colossal proportions, and in his voice they heard the ring 'hat must have been heard at Pharoah's court, when Moses thundered forth: "Let my people free!" or that must haveibeeu heard at the Did of Worms, when Luther, in the lace ol death, gave utterance to his declaration of^conviction. "Here 1 stand, 1 cannot do otherwise. Gqd help me." \s a messenger of God spake*Lincoln on that day. and it his hearers did not know it at the beginning of his address, all doubt was dispelled when he concluded that memorable speech will, the words: "1 know that the Lord is always on the side of the right: hut it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side." If men have been called saints because of the holiness of their lives then is our own Lincoln entitled to saintship. If men have'been called prophets because of the luminous truths they uttered because of their fearless exposure of wrong, and their 0 THE MERCURY defense of right, because of their clear prevision of the conse-quences of wrong, and their heroic efforts to ward them off by converting error into truth, and iniquity into righteousness, then was Lincoln a prophet, [f men have been called reform-ers and emancipators for abolishing the wrongs of ages and for setting free the oppressed and enslaved, then was Lincoln a re-former and an emancipator. If men have been called martyrs bn- purchasing other men's rights, and other men's freed,mi. and other men's happiness ai the cost of their own lives, then died Lincoln the deatli of martyrdom. ANOTHER SOPHOMORE TRICK. K. A. Crr.urHKiiLix. '08. HE full October moon had just risen in all the glory of her borrowed light, tier beams fell upon the towers of the old college buildings and cast great long shadows on every side. Almost all the windows »' Hamilton Hall were ablaze with light. Veils of laughter ami snatches of song floated out echoing for a second, then dying away in the distance. Along the street in front of Hie campus hurried a silent soli-tary creature. His coat collar turned, high about his neck con-cealed his features. Any of the men in "Senior Row" could have "spotted" him as a Freshman but to the uninitiated noth-ing could have been^eeri upon his person to denote the fact that he belonged, to that verdant tribe save for the green button which adorned his cap. His haste was t\uv to a rule which the Sophomores had created under the restrictions of which no "child" was allowed on the campus after eight o'clock unless ac-' companied by an upper class-man. ^ As he ueared the gates the figure of a young lady stepped bulb from a shadow and advanced towards him. "Good evening," she said in tones of liquid sweetness. "Isn't ihe moon just lovely? i simply a.lore a full moon." Our Freshman friend was taken aback but be had had experi-ence with girls before and in his own opinion was quite a heart THE MERCURY / breaker. His embarrassment therefore lasted but a second after which he answered:— "It's a swell night for a walk, isn't it?" "Xes, indeed," she said in accents which set: his heart beating against his ribs, '-would von care to take a walk?" With the ice thus broken how could he refuse? They strolled out the long avenue lined on either side by houses of the profes-sors into the open country-alone except fox the presence ol the brilliant moon. It is a long standing tradition that when a Freshman walks under the moon with a girl he of necessity acts silly. This was no exception to the rule, hut of this we need not further speak— suffice it to say that before'they had gone very tar lie had poured a w"rld of devotion into her ear and would have willingly burn-ed incense at her shrine. II,. thought to himself of the sensation bis new friendship had ever been able to fall in love with any other girl, and co on. would create among his classmates. Pie could not see how he \s they again neared the college -ate there was a wdd yd! from the campus and before he could realize what had happened ho was surrounded by a whole host of Sophomores on the look-out for the breaker of their rules. As be trembled bis fair com-panion laughed—a low masculine laugh which made him turn toward her—low. she had removed her bat and veil ami'stood there in the moonlight—the president of the Sophomore class. The hoax had worked perfectly and as the Freshman marched up over the campus between two Ion- lines of bis rival class to the tune of 'How Green 1 Am." he decided in bis youthful heart that henceforth lie would remember that be came to college to study and not waste his time with strange girls. W THE MERCURY THREE GREAT PHILOSOPHERS. Socrates—Part II. CHARLES W. HE.ATHCOTK, '05. OCRATES heard orators, poets, statesmen and others using the terms virtue, piety, justice, honor, etc., indiscriminately and without understanding their real basic meaning. For instance, one day he met Euthyphro at King Arclion's court and lie discussed with Euthyphro the true meaning of piety It seemed that Socrates had also come to King Archon's court because of an indictment which had-been brought against him by Meletus, on the ground that Socrates had been accused of impiousness. Euthyphro was bringing prosecution against his father, because a laboring man on their farm had had a. quarrel with a slave and had slain him, and Euthyphro's father had caused the death of the laborer by permitting him to perish from cold and starvation. Socrates was greatly impressed with the facts of the case. Eu-thyphro claimed that his action was pious by bringing his father to trial for this homicidal offense. Socrates was very anxious to have Eutlvyphro define to him what he believed to be the true meaning of pious and impious-ness to be. Euthyphro replies, "Piety is doing as I" am now doing." (^y said men forsook the temple of Dagon even to this day. But Iti'nlv in this day they have moulded in the shape of the ancient , an image of gold and most precious stones, and have set fcliout his head a crown of dollars, ground from the hearts and jsiails themselves of human man. And the Liberty of our fath-ers has become an exile, driven out from his rightful habitation, man's Intellect and Heart, and Soul, and in her place this hate-d worship has become the all. Small wonder that we should 28 THE MERCURY blush with shame when we think of our fathers, struggling for the freedom which we have bartered so ruthlessly, that we should hide our faces from the free indeed, those who have clung to the old regime, and who perpetuate the rule of Liberty. What a power is this golden god! How he has enslaved men, so that they lay down their lives, and sell their very souls in loyalty to him. lie has perverted the most sacred vows of mankind and has stolen his way into the state and nation, yet we fall to our knees in homage to him. He has made as if there were not the holy bonds of marriage, and has seen hideous crimes com-mitted against every moral law in his name, yet we lay our sac-rifices on his knees. 0, that men had preferred the humble liberty of our fathers ;then would we have laughter where now we have tears, and joy where sorrow.now abounds; then would men say, "what wonder, what majesty, what glory of Grod, are to be seen in yonder falls,"' not "what power there is there for the run-ning of mills and elevators." It has indeed passed the time of real submission to tyrants of flesh, and deistjc despots: when men were held by iron links of superstition and by fear to unseen terrors, and avengers of every fault. But the time of subservience to this tyrant of gold has come, the time when men look upon the dollar with laughter of satisfaction, with no thought of fairness scorned or perished chastity; when the sacred things of our forefathers are as noth-ing in our sight, and where freedom is trampled under foot. Yet the time is coming when man will say to his conscience, "Woe is me, for 1 have spurned good, and upheld evil: I have left off from the things that aie right, and am living in sin ami ■ degradation." And the usurper in the rightful temple of Liber- ,tv will fall forever because of man's awakening. T H E M- E RC U RV Entered at the I'ostoffice at Oetlysburg as second-class Matter. VOL. XV GETTYSBURG, PA., NOVEMBER 1907 No. 6 Editor in-Chief KDMUND L. MANGES, '08 Exchange Editor ROBERT W. MICHAEL, '08 Business Manager HENRY M. BOWER, '08 Ass't Bus. Managers LESLIE L. TAYLOR, '09 CHARLES L. KOPP, '09 Assistant Editor MARKLEY C. ALBRIGHT, '08 Associate Editors PAUL F. BLOOMHARDT, '09 E. E. SNYDER, '09 Advisory Board PROF. J. A. HIMES, LITT.D PROF. G. D. STAHLEY, M.D. PROF. J. W. RICHARD, D.D. Jublished ea,ck month, from October to June inclusive, by the point literary societies of Pennsylvania (Gettysburg) College. Subscription price, oue dollar a year in advance : single copies 16 cents. Notice to discontinue sending THE MERCURY to any address mu.Kt be accompanied by all arrearages. I Students, Professors and Alumni are cordially invited to contri-bute. I All subscriptions and business matter should be addressed to the Business Manager. I Articles for publication should be addressed to the Editor. . Address THE MERCURY, GETTYSBURG, PA. EDITORIALS. THE VALUE °ne f till' most OF READING. efficient and en-joyable means of augmenting ma-store of knowledge, of broadening our intellects, and of making keen our perceptive powers is reading—careful, systematic and thoughtful reading. ■ It matters little what we read. Whether we read poetry, fiction or history or philosophy or what not is of little To peruse a book simply for the sake of getting ■3° THE MERCURY through it is fruitless and a waste of time, but to read carefully and with a desire to fathom the author's depth of thought is of inestimable benefit to the reader. We can utilize our spare mo-ments in no better way than by leading standard literature. Gettysburg College is the possessor of three separate libraries containing thousands of volumes of books on any and every sub-ject to which the student may wish to refer. Each individual student lias access to these books, and it is his duty to take ad-vantage of ibis opportunity which is given him for self-improve-ment by frequent visitations to the different libraries. This is a privilege not to be scorned. Let those who do not. read, by all means, begin at once, ami those who do read, read more. Let us all cultivate a desire to read, not only fiction, hut also hooks that "are made of sterner stuff" so that our intellects may be fortified against an attack from any source. UITERARY What should we expect in the line of literary ACTIVITY. activity in a college whose main effort is de-voted to a classical training, as our own college is? Should wo expect the. students to do anything of a Literary nature beside their regular curriculum work? We may answer that outside of regular work, the literary spiiit should predominate. To (he latter we need not try to offer an answer. It is too self-evident. When we consider what ought to be done and what really is done we can fully appreciate that we are far from reaching the mark we should. Then it is not only a question f quantity. Quality too unisl be considered. It is a fact that we have our literary societies and our publications, organs which should lie incentives for work. But instead they seem to he a burden to us. We take an interest in them because we are practically compelled to keep them in existence. In a school that has several hundred stu-dents enrolled, it should he an easy matter to obtain materia ^enough Eor a small monthly publication. In fact it is not sucl a hard matter to get the necessary amount but then the question! of quality and appropriateness enters. Further, if by quantity we limit ourselves to material that has been especially written] for the publication, we find it very scarce. As a result our THE MERCURY 3* erary journal suffers because it must be, to a great extent, made-up of articles which were written because (hey were required in the college course What are the causes in this laok of interest in literary pro-duction'/ We fully realize what it would mean to us to rouse our-selves from our lethargic state and become energetic. Likely E e of us fail to keep in mind the real object for which we are here. Do not most of our students wish to become professional men? How are the minister and the lawyer going to succeed without being proficient in composing sermons and arguments? Do we expect to learn to do this after entering upon our pro-fessions? Then we will realize what we have lost by our careless-ness and our lack of interest. Instead of taking advantage of our opportunities and working we would rather seek some fickle? amusement. To say that this state of affairs is deplorable is not pulling it too strongly. We have felt for some time that this fact should be spoken of, but refrained hoping that conditions would gradu-ally grow better. If conditions have grown better, our ideas of Iwhat it should be must have grown proportionately for there seems to be no change. So let us throw off this indifference to literary work and. help ourselves%o something better, something Eitbstantial for us all in future days. A yell suggested for the Freshmen':— "I want to go home, Boo. boo. boo, ha. 1 want to go home To Pa and Ma. Rah, Rah, Bah!—Ex. 32 THE MERCURY EXCHANGES. XCE again for another short period we have resumed our pleasant privilege of laboring together in the field of literary activity, and nothing is'so delightful as pouring over the well written pages of our ex-changes. By this duty there is developed more than the alertness of a critic. The great satisfaction that we obtain by the association with other journals must not be depreciated. AVe look forward to a very propitious year ami we hope that our former exchanges! will lind their customary places mi our desk. AVe also hope that I new bonds might be formed and that this year might be (lie ban-ner year in college journalism. We hare not the spirit to dis-parge the excellent beginnings already made, but our remarks! must all be of commendation. In the October number of The "Western Maryland College Monthly"' is found a well written article entitled "The Modem Nerve Panacea." also "The Rescue," of the same number de-serves mention. The end is brought about very nicely by boti parties going to their fathers to receive their blessings. She—I was out last night and caught cold, and I'm a little- "hoarse.2' He—Well, it is conceded by all that I'm a little—"buggy," so let's get hitched up.—Ex. The October number of "The Washington .Iclt'ersonian" ■whole is the best exchange we have received this month. It i well arranged, and each article shows thought and preparation The article entitled "The Bronco Buster," deserves special n >* tion for its construction and division of subject. The new garb of the "Albright Bulletin" covers nothing bill good articles. "Lampoon" still continues as spicy as heretofore :i: :!: :■: -.;: $ WTe acknowledge the "Sorosis," "Muhlenberg," "'Owl," "Foj rum," "State Collegian," "Drury Mirror," and "Dickinsonian. ■ PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. THE BEST PEN FOB COLLEGE MEN There's no pen that gives such all-round satisfaction as Conklin's Self-Filling Fountain Pen. It's the best pen for College Men. When an ordinary fountain pen runs dry in the middle, of a word, it means you've got to stop right there, hunt up a rubber squirt gun, fill your pen to overflowing, clean both pen and dropper, wash your hands, and then endeavor as best you can to collect your lost train of thought. It's different with COIVRLIIX |3 FILLING FOUNTAIN PEN "THE PEN WITH THE CRESCENT-FlCLER" To fill, just dip it in any ink, press the Crescent-Filler, and the Conklin is filled and ready to write instantly. You can't over-fill it Hence no inky fingers, no loss of time, no ruffled temper. The feed of the Conklin is perfect No waiting for ink to come—no jerking—no slips, balks or blots. Leading dealers handle the Conklin. If yours does not, order direct. Look for the Crescent"Fi!ler and refuse substitutes. Prices, $3.00 and Send at once for handsome new catalog. THE CONKLIN PEN CO., 310 Manhattan Building, Toledo, Ohio. PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. 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[EN] The advanced state of land degradation affecting more than 3,200 million people worldwide have raised great international concern regarding the sustainability of socio-ecological systems, urging the large-scale adoption of contextualized sustainable land management. The agricultural industrial model is a major cause of land degradation due to the promotion of unsustainable management practices that deteriorate the quality of soils compromising their capacity to function and deliver ecosystem services. The consequences derived from land degradation are especially devastating in semi-arid regions prone to desertification, where rainfall scarcity and irregularity intensifies crop failure risks and resource degradation, compromising the long term sustainability of these regions. ; Regenerative agriculture (RA) has recently gained increasing recognition as a plausible solution to restore degraded agroecosystems worldwide. RA is a farming approach foreseen to reverse land degradation, increase biodiversity, boost production and enhance the delivery of multiple ecosystem services by following a series of soil quality restoration principles and practices. Despite its promising benefits, RA has been limitedly adopted in semiarid regions. Major reasons explaining this seemingly incongruous mismatch are the scarce and contrasting empirical data proving its effectiveness, top-down research approaches and lack of farmer involvement in agroecosystem restoration projects and decision-making, and the generally slow response of soils to management changes in semiarid regions, which may delay the appearance of visible results discouraging farmers from adopting RA. ; In the high steppe plateau of southeast Spain, an on-going process of large-scale landscape restoration through adoption of regenerative agriculture was initiated in 2015. The high steppe plateau is one of the European regions most affected by land degradation and desertification processes and represents one of the world´s largest areas for the production of rainfed organic almonds. In 2015, local farmers created the AlVelAl association with the support of the Commonland Foundation, business entrepreneurs, regional governments, and research institutions, and started to apply RA at their farms. The objective was to restore vast extensions of degraded land for increasing the productivity and biodiversity of their agroecosystems, increasing the resilience to climate change, generating job opportunities and enhancing social cohesion in the region, in a time frame of 20 years following Commonlands´ 4-Returns approach. However, the limited empirical information supporting RA effectiveness, the lack of reference examples in the region, and the slowness with which visible ecological restoration processes usually occur in semi-arid regions were considered major obstacles hindering RA adoption in the region. To effectively address this knowledge gap, support farmers and expedite RA adoption, this research proposed horizontal research fostering the creation of learning communities between farmers and researchers, putting together local and scientific knowledge to improve the understanding of RA. This thesis presents a participatory monitoring and evaluation research (PM&E) applying a combination of social and ecological methods to evaluate the potential of PM&E to enhance knowledge exchange between farmers and researchers on Regenerative Agriculture in the context of the high steppe plateau. The aim of this thesis is twofold: on one hand, to increase the understanding on RA impacts, on the other hand, to evaluate the potential contribution of PM&E to enable social learning and contribute to the adaptation and long term adoption of RA in the high steppe plateau and semiarid regions in general. To facilitate PM&E of the impacts of sustainable land management and agricultural innovations like RA, Chapter 2 presents a participatory methodological framework that guides the identification and selection of technical and local indicators of soil quality, generating a monitoring system of soil quality for PM&E by farmers and researchers. The methodological framework includes the development of a visual soil assessment tool integrating local indicators of soil quality for farmers´ monitoring. The framework consists of 7 phases: 1) Definition of research and monitoring objectives; 2) Identification, selection and prioritization of Technical Indicators of Soil Quality (TISQ); 3) Identification, selection and prioritization of Local Indicators of Soil Quality; 4) Development of a visual soil assessment tool integrating LISQ; 5) Testing and validation of the visual soil evaluation tool; 6) Monitoring and assessment of sustainable land management impacts by researchers and farmers using TISQ and the visual soil evaluation tool respectively and; 7) Exchange of monitoring results between all involved participants, and joint evaluation of impacts. ; To facilitate PM&E of RA in the steppe highlands, Phases 1 to 5 were applied through a series of participatory methods including a first meeting with AlVelAl board members for the definition of research objectives, farm visits, participatory workshops, and conducting formal and informal interviews, among others. Technical indicators of soil quality were identified, selected and prioritized by researchers through an extensive literature review and ad-hoc expert consultation with expertise in soil quality assessment and monitoring. Local indicators of soil quality were identified, selected, prioritized and validated by farmers in two participatory workshops. The co-developed visual soil assessment tool, named the farmer manual, was tested and validated during the second workshop. Local indicators selected by farmers focused mostly on supporting, regulating and provisioning ecosystem services including water regulation, erosion control, soil fertility and crop performance. Technical indicators selected by researchers focused mostly on soil properties including aggregate stability, soil nutrients, microbial biomass and activity, and leaf nutrients, covering crucial supporting services. The combination of local and technical indicators provided complementary information, improving the coverage and feasibility of RA impact assessment, compared to using technical or local indicators alone. The methodological framework developed in this chapter facilitated the identification and selection of local and technical indicators of soil quality to generate relevant monitoring systems and visual soil assessment tools adapted to local contexts, thus improving knowledge exchange and mutual learning between farmers and researchers to support the implementation of RA and optimize the provision of ecosystem services. Implementation of RA usually happens gradually due to socioeconomic, informational, practical, environmental and political constraints Thus, RA adoption by farmers, in practice, translates into different combinations of RA practices, with a diversity of management, based on farmer capabilities, environmental conditions, and expected restoration results. ; To help the design, adoption and implementation of most effective RA practices to optimize the restoration of agroecosystems, Chapter 3 presents the impacts of the different combinations of RA practices implemented by participating farmers on crucial soil quality and crop performance indicators using previously selected technical indicators of soil quality over a period of 2 years. This chapter corresponds to the application of phase 6 of the methodological framework developed in Chapter 2. RA impacts were assessed in 9 farms on one field with regenerative management and one nearby field with conventional management based on frequent tillage, that were selected together with farmers. Fields were clustered under regenerative management based on the RA practices applied and distinguished 4 types of RA treatments: 1) reduced tillage with green manure (GM), 2) reduced tillage with organic amendments (OA), 3) reduced tillage with green manure and organic amendments (GM&OA), and 4) no tillage with permanent natural covers and organic amendments (NT&OA). The impacts of RA compared to conventional management were evaluated by comparing physical (bulk density and aggregate stability), chemical (pH, salinity, total N, P, K, available P, and exchangeable cations) and biological (SOC, POC, PON, microbial activity) properties of soil quality, and the nutritional status of almond trees (leaf N, P and K). Our results show that GM improved soil physical properties, presenting higher soil aggregate stability. We found that OA improved most soil chemical and biological properties, showing higher contents of SOC, POC, PON, total N, K, P, available P, exchangeable cations and microbial respiration. RA treatments combining ground covers and organic amendments (GM&OA and NT&OA) exhibited greater overall soil quality restoration than individual practices. NT&OA stood out for presenting the highest soil quality improvements. All RA treatments maintained similar crop nutritional status compared to conventional management. We concluded that RA has strong potential to restore the physical, chemical and biological quality of soils of woody agroecosystems in Mediterranean drylands without compromising their nutritional status. Furthermore, farming management combinations of multiple regenerative practices are expected to be more effective than applying individual RA practices. ; In parallel to researchers´ assessment of RA impacts, farmers assessed RA impacts in their farms by using the farmer manual jointly developed in participatory workshops. Chapter 4 presents the RA impact results from farmers´ assessment, and documented farmers´ insights, in the third year of PM&E, on the visual soil assessment process using the farmer manual, and on PM&E outcomes regarding the facilitation of participation and learning processes. This chapter corresponds to the application of phase 6 and phase 7 of the methodological framework developed in Chapter 2. Farmers´ visual soil assessment indicated regenerative agriculture as a promising solution to restore degraded agroecosystems in semiarid Mediterranean drylands, although observed soil quality improvements were relatively small compared to conventional management, and more time and efforts are needed to attain desired restoration targets. The monitoring results on RA reported by farmers were complementary to researchers´ findings using technical indicators of soil quality. Farmers' evaluation of the research project highlighted the PM&E research as an educational process that helped them look differently at their land and their restoration efforts and facilitated the creation of relationships of support and trust, learning and capacity building that are fundamental conducive conditions to enhance farming innovation efficiency and adoption. Farmers confirmed that generating spaces for farmer-to-farmer diffusion of knowledge and on-farm experiences is a key driver to expedite farming testing and adoption of innovations. Farmers insights revealed the need to actively involve them in all decision making phases of VSA tools and support them in initial implementation, in order to develop tools that meet farmers´ needs, to enhance VSA tool adoption, and facilitate reaching restoration goals. Furthermore, farmers´ evaluation of the farmer manual suggested the need to reinforce the multipurpose usefulness and potential benefits of collectively recording restoration progress in a systematized way, to enhance VSA tool adoption. Farmers´ insights on the PM&E research reinforces the importance of developing learning communities of farmers and researchers that provide a platform for exchange of experiences and support, as a crucial factor to favor social learning and support the adoption of long-term agricultural innovations. The success of PM&E research for agroecosystem restoration can be improved by integrating iterative phases where farmers can evaluate and adjust research activities and outcomes. We concluded that the process of PM&E that leads to enhanced social capital, social learning and improved understanding of restoration efforts has as much value as the actual restoration outcomes on the ground. Social learning is considered an important precondition for the adoption of contextualized sustainable land management and farming innovations like RA. The main objective of involving farmers and researchers in PM&E of RA was to enable social learning for enhanced understanding of RA impacts and support adoption of RA. Although there is a growing body of literature asserting the achievement of social learning through participatory processes, social learning has been loosely defined, sparsely assessed, and only partially covered when measured. Confirming that a participatory process has favored social learning implies demonstrating that there has been an acquisition of knowledge and change in perceptions at individual and collective level in the people involved in the participatory process, and that this change in perceptions has been generated through social relations. ; Chapter 5 presents an assessment of how the PM&E research process enabled social learning by effectively increasing knowledge exchange and understanding of RA impacts between participating farmers and researchers, and multiple stakeholders of farmers´ social networks. Occurrence of social learning was assessed by covering its social-cognitive (perceptions) and social-relational (social networks) dimensions. This chapter discusses the potential of PM&E to foster adoption and out-scaling of sustainable land management and farming innovations like RA by promoting the generation of information fluxes between farmers and researchers participating in PM&E and the agricultural community of which they form part. To assess changes in farmers´ perceptions and shared fluxes of information on RA before starting the PM&E and after three years of research, we applied fuzzy cognitive mapping and social network analysis as graphical semi-quantitative methods. Our results showed that PM&E enabled social learning amongst participating farmers who strengthened and enlarged their social networks on information sharing, and presented a more complex and broader common understanding of regenerative agriculture impacts and benefits. This supports the idea that PM&E thereby creates crucial preconditions for the adoption and out-scaling of RA. This study was one of the first studies in the field of natural resource management and innovation adoption proving that social learning occurred by providing evidence of both the social-cognitive and social-relational dimension. Our findings are relevant for the design of PM&E processes, agroecosystem Living Labs, and landscape restoration initiatives that aim to support farmers´ adoption and out-scaling of contextualized farming innovations and sustainable land management. We concluded that PM&E where the democratic involvement of participants is the bedrock of the whole research process and the needs and concerns of the farming community are taken as the basis for collaborative research represents a great opportunity to generate inclusive, engaging, efficient, and sound restoration processes and transitions towards sustainable and resilient agroecosystems. ; ES] El avanzado estado de degradación de la tierra que afecta a más de 3.200 millones de personas en todo el mundo ha suscitado una gran preocupación internacional con respecto a la sostenibilidad de los sistemas socio-ecológicos, instando a la adopción a gran escala de manejos sostenibles de la tierra, adaptados a los diferentes contextos. El modelo agrícola industrial es uno de los principales causantes de la degradación de la tierra debido a la promoción de prácticas agrícolas insostenibles que deterioran la calidad de los suelos, comprometiendo su capacidad de funcionamiento y de prestación de servicios ecosistémicos. Las consecuencias derivadas de la degradación de la tierra son especialmente devastadoras en regiones semiáridas propensas a procesos de desertificación, donde la escasez y la irregularidad de las lluvias intensifican la degradación de los recursos naturales y el riesgo de malas cosechas, comprometiendo la sostenibilidad de estas regiones a largo plazo. Recientemente, la agricultura regenerativa (AR) ha ganado un reconocimiento cada vez mayor como solución plausible para restaurar agroecosistemas degradados de todo el mundo. La AR es un enfoque agrícola que se prevé puede revertir la degradación de la tierra, aumentar la biodiversidad, incrementar la producción y mejorar la prestación de múltiples servicios ecosistémicos mediante el seguimiento de una serie de principios y prácticas de restauración de calidad del suelo. A pesar de los prometedores beneficios de la AR, este enfoque agrícola ha sido adoptado de forma muy limitada en regiones semiáridas. Las principales razones que explican su limitada adopción son: la escasez de datos empíricos que demuestran su efectividad, la información contradictoria que ofrecen dichos datos, los enfoques verticales (top-down), la falta de inclusión, participación y toma de decisiones de las agricultoras/es en los proyectos de restauración de agroecosistemas, y la generalmente lenta respuesta de los suelos en regiones semiáridas a los cambios de manejo, lo que puede retrasar la aparición de resultados visibles y desalentar a agricultoras y agricultores a adoptar la AR. En el altiplano estepario del sureste español se inició en 2015 un proceso de restauración de ecosistemas a gran escala mediante la adopción de la AR. El altiplano estepario es una de las regiones europeas más afectadas por procesos de degradación y desertificación de la tierra, y representa una de las mayores extensiones del mundo de producción de almendras ecológicas en secano. En 2015, agricultoras y agricultores locales crearon la asociación agroecológica AlVelAl con el apoyo de la Fundación Commonland, empresas, gobiernos regionales e instituciones de investigación, y comenzaron a aplicar AR en sus fincas. Su objetivo es restaurar grandes extensiones de tierras degradadas, mejorar la productividad y la biodiversidad, aumentar la resiliencia de sus agroecosistemas al cambio climático, generar oportunidades de empleo y mejorar la cohesión social en la región en el plazo de 20 años, siguiendo el enfoque de 4 retornos de la Fundación Commonland. Sin embargo, la escasez de datos e información que respalden la efectividad de la AR, junto con la falta de ejemplos de referencia en la región y la lentitud con la que los procesos de restauración ecológica suelen ocurrir en regiones semiáridas, fueron considerados grandes obstáculos para promover la adopción de la AR en la región. ; Para abordar de manera efectiva la falta de conocimiento sobre los impactos de la AR y apoyar a la comunidad agrícola a mejorar y acelerar su adopción, son necesarios enfoques de investigación horizontales que fomenten la creación de comunidades de aprendizaje entre agricultoras/es e investigadoras/es, aunando el conocimiento local y científico para mejorar el conocimiento sobre la AR. Esta tesis presenta una investigación de monitorización y evaluación participativa (MEP) donde aplicamos una combinación de métodos sociales y ecológicos para evaluar el potencial de esta metodología de investigación en la mejora del intercambio de conocimientos entre agricultoras/es e investigadoras/es sobre la AR en el contexto del altiplano estepario. El objetivo de esta tesis es doble: por un lado, mejorar el conocimiento de los impactos de la AR y, por otro lado, evaluar la contribución de la MEP en facilitar procesos de aprendizaje social, contribuyendo a una mejor adaptación y adopción a largo plazo de la AR en el altiplano estepario en particular, y en regiones semiáridas en general. Combinar el conocimiento científico y local se vuelve un imperativo en procesos de MEP para mejorar la adopción de innovaciones agrícolas, siendo especialmente relevante en regiones semiáridas que típicamente responden lento a cambios de manejo, lo que suele dar lugar a bajas tasas de adopción de dichas innovaciones. Para ello es necesario generar sistemas de monitorización de calidad del suelo y sostenibilidad de los agroecosistemas que integren el conocimiento de agricultoras/es e investigadoras/es, y estén adaptados al contexto donde se aplican las innovaciones. ; Para facilitar la MEP de los impactos de manejos sostenibles e innovaciones agrícolas como la AR, el Capítulo 2 presenta un marco metodológico que guía la identificación y selección de indicadores técnicos y locales de calidad del suelo, conformando un sistema de monitorización para la evaluación participativa de la AR por parte de investigadoras/es y agricultoras/es. El marco metodológico incluye el desarrollo de una herramienta para la evaluación visual del suelo integrando indicadores locales de calidad de suelo para el monitoreo por parte de las agricultoras/es. El marco metodológico consta de 7 fases e incluye: Fase 1) Definición de objetivos de investigación y monitorización; Fase 2) Identificación, selección y priorización de Indicadores Técnicos de Calidad del Suelo (TISQ); Fase 3) Identificación, selección y priorización de Indicadores Locales de Calidad del Suelo (LISQ); Fase 4) Desarrollo de una herramienta de evaluación visual del suelo integrando LISQ; Fase 5) Puesta en práctica y validación de la herramienta de evaluación visual del suelo; Fase 6) Monitorización y evaluación de los impactos de los manejos implementados por parte de investigadoras/es y agricultoras/es, usando los TISQ y la herramienta de evaluación visual del suelo respectivamente y; Fase 7) Intercambio de los resultados de monitorización entre las participantes y evaluación conjunta de los impactos. Para facilitar la MEP de la AR en el altiplano estepario, se desarrolló este marco metodológico y fueron aplicadas las fases 1 a 5 a través de una serie de metodologías participativas que incluyeron una primera reunión con los miembros de la junta directiva de la asociación AlVelAl para la definición conjunta de objetivos de investigación, visitas a las fincas de las agricultoras/es participantes, el desarrollo de talleres participativos, y la realización de entrevistas formales e informales, entre otras. Las investigadoras/es participantes en la MEP identificaron, seleccionaron y priorizaron indicadores técnicos de calidad del suelo a través de una extensa revisión de literatura científica y la consulta ad-hoc a expertas/os con experiencia en monitorización y evaluación de calidad de suelos. Las agricultoras/es participantes identificaron, seleccionaron, priorizaron y validaron indicadores locales de calidad del suelo en dos talleres participativos. La herramienta de evaluación visual del suelo desarrollada conjuntamente, que denominamos Cuaderno de Campo, fue puesta en práctica y validada durante el segundo taller participativo. Los indicadores locales de calidad de suelo seleccionados por las agricultoras/es se enfocaron principalmente en la evaluación de servicios ecosistémicos de apoyo, regulación y abastecimiento, e incluyeron indicadores de regulación hidrológica, control de la erosión, fertilidad del suelo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Los indicadores técnicos de calidad del suelo seleccionados por las investigadoras/es se consistieron en propiedades fisicoquímicas y biológicas del suelo, incluyendo los indicadores: estabilidad de agregados, nutrientes del suelo, biomasa y actividad microbiana, y nutrientes foliares, y cubriendo importantes servicios ecosistémicos de apoyo. La información complementaria generada al combinar indicadores locales y técnicos de calidad de suelo permite ampliar la cobertura, viabilidad y efectividad en la MEP de los impactos de la AR, en comparación con usar de manera individual indicadores técnicos o indicadores locales. El marco metodológico desarrollado en este capítulo facilitó la identificación y selección de indicadores locales y técnicos de calidad del suelo para generar sistemas de monitorización y herramientas de evaluación visual de suelo relevantes y adaptadas a los contextos locales, lo que permite mejorar el intercambio de conocimientos y el aprendizaje mutuo entre agricultoras/es e investigadoras/es para apoyar la implementación de la AR y optimizar la provisión de servicios ecosistémicos. ; La implementación de la AR por parte de agricultoras/es generalmente ocurre de forma gradual debido a limitaciones socioeconómicas, informacionales, ambientales y políticas. Por ello, la adopción de la AR por parte de agricultoras/ es, se traduce en diferentes combinaciones de prácticas regenerativas y diversidad de manejos determinados por factores socioeconómicos, las capacidades de las agricultoras/es, las condiciones ambientales, y los resultados de restauración que se esperan conseguir. Para ayudar al diseño, adopción e implementación de las prácticas de AR más efectivas para optimizar la restauración de agroecosistemas degradados en ambientes semiáridos, el Capítulo 3 presenta la evaluación de los impactos de diferentes combinaciones de prácticas regenerativas implementadas por las agricultoras/es participantes en la MEP usando los indicadores técnicos de calidad de suelo y de rendimiento del cultivo previamente seleccionados. Este capítulo corresponde a la aplicación de la fase 6 del marco metodológico desarrollado en el capítulo 2. Este capítulo presenta la evaluación de impactos de la AR realizada durante dos años en 9 fincas, donde fueron seleccionados, junto con las agricultoras/es participantes, un campo con manejo regenerativo y un campo cercano con manejo convencional bajo laboreo frecuente (CT). Los campos bajo manejo regenerativo fueron agrupados en base a las prácticas de AR aplicadas, y se diferenciaron 4 tipos de tratamientos regenerativos: 1) laboreo reducido con abono verde (GM), 2) laboreo reducido con enmiendas orgánicas (OA), 3) laboreo reducido con abono verde y enmiendas orgánicas (GM&OA), y 4) no laboreo con cubiertas naturales permanentes y enmiendas orgánicas (NT&OA). Se evaluaron los impactos de la AR con respecto al manejo agrícola convencional comparando las propiedades físicas (densidad aparente y estabilidad agregada), químicas (pH, salinidad, N, P, K total, P disponible y cationes intercambiables) y biológicas (SOC, POC, PON, actividad microbiana) de la calidad del suelo y el estado nutricional de los almendros (N, P y K foliares). Nuestros resultados mostraron que el tratamiento GM mejoró las propiedades físicas del suelo, presentando una mayor estabilidad de agregados. Encontramos que el tratamiento OA mejoró la mayoría de las propiedades químicas y biológicas del suelo, mostrando mayores contenidos de SOC, POC, PON, N, K, P total, P disponible, cationes intercambiables y actividad microbiana. Los tratamientos regenerativos que combinaron cubiertas naturales o abonos verdes con enmiendas orgánicas (GM&OA y NT&OA) exhibieron una mayor restauración general de la calidad del suelo en comparación con los tratamientos con prácticas individuales (GM y OA). El tratamiento NT&OA destacó por presentar las mayores mejorías en la restauración de la calidad del suelo comparado con el manejo convencional. Todos los tratamientos regenerativos mantuvieron un estado nutricional de los almendros similar al manejo convencional. Concluimos que la AR tiene un gran potencial para restaurar la calidad física, química y biológica de los suelos en agroecosistemas de leñosos en el semiárido Mediterráneo sin comprometer el estado nutricional de los cultivos. Es de esperar que los manejos que incluyen múltiples prácticas regenerativas sean más efectivos en la restauración de la calidad del suelo que los manejos con prácticas regenerativas individuales. ; Paralelamente a la evaluación de los impactos de la AR por parte de las investigadoras/es, las agricultoras/es evaluaron los impactos de la AR en sus fincas, utilizando la herramienta de evaluación visual del suelo (Cuaderno de campo), desarrollada conjuntamente en los talleres participativos. El Capítulo 4 presenta los resultados de la evaluación de los impactos de la AR por parte de las agricultoras/es. También presenta las observaciones y la evaluación por parte las/los agricultores, realizadas en el tercer año desde el inicio de la MEP, sobre el proceso de evaluación visual del suelo usando el Cuaderno de Campo, así como sobre el impacto de la MEP en facilitar procesos de participación y aprendizaje en las agricultoras/es participantes. Este capítulo corresponde a la aplicación de las fases 6 y 7 del marco metodológico desarrollado en el Capítulo 2. La monitorización por parte las agricultoras/es mostró que la AR tiene potencial para restaurar agroecosistemas degradados en el semiárido Mediterráneo, aunque las mejoras observadas sobre la calidad del suelo fueron relativamente pequeñas con respecto al manejo convencional, siendo necesario más tiempo y mayores esfuerzos para alcanzar los objetivos de restauración deseados. Las pequeñas mejoras en la calidad del suelo documentadas por las agricultoras/es fueron complementarias a los hallazgos obtenidos por las investigadoras/es usando indicadores técnicos de calidad de suelo. Las agricultoras/es destacaron la MEP como un proceso de aprendizaje que les ayudó a ver sus suelos y sus esfuerzos de restauración de manera diferente, y que facilitó la creación de relaciones de apoyo y el desarrollo de habilidades en ellas/os, los cuales son requisitos fundamentales para fomentar la eficiencia y la adopción de innovaciones agrícolas. Las agricultoras/es confirmaron que la generación de espacios que favorecen el intercambio de conocimientos entre agricultoras/ es, así como las experiencias agrícolas en finca (in situ), son un factor clave para fomentar la experimentación y adopción de innovaciones agrícolas por parte de la comunidad agrícola. Además, las observaciones realizadas por las participantes revelaron la necesidad de involucrar activamente a las agricultoras/es en todas las fases de diseño y toma de decisiones en el desarrollo de herramientas de evaluación visual del suelo con el fin de generar herramientas que satisfagan sus necesidades. Junto con ello, se dedujo que el apoyo del equipo investigador a las agricultoras/ es en las primeras implementaciones de dichas herramientas puede contribuir a mejorar su adopción, facilitando que las usuarias/os consigan los objetivos de restauración deseados. Asimismo, la evaluación del Cuaderno de Campo por parte de las agricultoras/es indicó la necesidad de reforzar la utilidad multipropósito y los beneficios potenciales de registrar de forma sistematizada y colectiva los progresos de restauración, con el fin de aumentar la adopción de estas herramientas por parte de las usuarias/os a las que van dirigidas. La evaluación de la MEP por parte de las agricultoras/es refuerza la importancia de desarrollar comunidades de aprendizaje entre agricultoras/es e investigadoras/es que proporcionen una plataforma para el intercambio de experiencias y de apoyo en el proceso de investigación, lo cual es considerado un factor crucial para favorecer el aprendizaje social y apoyar la adopción de innovaciones agrícolas a largo plazo. Este capítulo concluyó que el éxito de las investigaciones enfocadas a la restauración de agroecosistemas puede incrementar mediante la integración de fases iterativas en las que agricultoras/ es puedan evaluar y ajustar las actividades y los resultados de investigación. Los procesos de MEP, que contribuyen a mejorar el capital social, el aprendizaje social y a generar una mayor comprensión de los esfuerzos de restauración, tienen tanto valor como los propios resultados de restauración sobre el terreno. ; El aprendizaje social es considerado un prerrequisito crucial para la adopción de manejos sostenibles e innovaciones agrícolas adaptados a los diferentes contextos. El objetivo principal de desarrollar una investigación de MEP involucrando a investigadoras/es y agricultoras/es en el altiplano estepario fue permitir el aprendizaje social para lograr una mejor comprensión de los impactos de la AR y así mejorar su adopción. Aunque existen cada vez más investigaciones científicas que afirman que los procesos participativos fomentan el aprendizaje social, este concepto ha sido definido de forma muy diversa, ha sido rara vez evaluado, y ha sido abordado de manera parcial sin cubrir su dimensión cognitiva y su dimensión relacional. Establecer que un proceso participativo ha favorecido el aprendizaje social, implica demostrar que se ha generado una adquisición de conocimientos y que se ha producido un cambio en las percepciones, a nivel individual y a nivel colectivo, de las personas implicadas en el proceso, y que este cambio de percepciones ha sido generado gracias al establecimiento de relaciones sociales, de intercambio de información y experiencias. El Capítulo 5 evalúa cómo la MEP de la AR en el altiplano estepario favoreció el aprendizaje social en las agricultoras/es participantes, mejorando la comprensión de los impactos de la AR al aumentar de manera efectiva el intercambio de conocimientos entre ellas/os, con las investigadoras/es participantes, y con otras personas que forman parte de sus redes sociales. Este capítulo presenta resultados necesarios para probar si la MEP de la AR favoreció el aprendizaje social en las agriculturas/es participantes, evaluando tanto la dimensión social-cognitiva (percepciones) como la dimensión social-relacional (redes sociales) del aprendizaje social. Además, en este capítulo se discute el potencial de la MEP para favorecer la adopción de manejos sostenibles e innovaciones agrícolas a gran escala gracias a fomentar la generación de flujos de información entre las agricultoras/es participantes y la comunidad agrícola de la que forman parte. Utilizamos el mapeo cognitivo difuso (fuzzy cognitive mapping) y el análisis de redes sociales como métodos gráficos semi-cuantitativos para evaluar los cambios de percepciones y de flujos de información compartidos por las agricultoras/ es sobre la AR, antes de empezar la MEP y después de transcurridos tres años de investigación. Nuestros resultados mostraron que la MEP favoreció el aprendizaje social en las agricultoras/es participantes, quienes fortalecieron y ampliaron sus redes sociales de intercambio de información sobre AR, presentando un conocimiento más complejo, común y amplio de los impactos y beneficios de la AR. De esto modo, se demostró que la MEP genera prerrequisitos cruciales para mejorar la adopción de la AR. Este estudio fue uno de los primeros en el ámbito del manejo sostenible de recursos naturales e innovaciones agrícolas que demuestra empíricamente el favorecimiento del aprendizaje social a través de procesos de investigación participativa, proporcionando evidencias tanto en su dimensión social-cognitiva como en su dimensión social-relacional. Nuestros hallazgos tienen una gran relevancia para el diseño de procesos de MEP, como pueden ser los living labs y otras iniciativas de restauración de ecosistemas, que tengan como objetivo apoyar, fortalecer y fomentar la adopción por parte de las comunidades agrícolas de manejos sostenibles e innovaciones agrícolas adaptadas a los diferentes contextos. Las investigaciones de MEP, donde la participación democrática de las/ os participantes y las necesidades de las comunidades agrícolas son consideradas centrales en el proceso de investigación, representan una gran oportunidad para generar procesos inclusivos, atractivos, eficientes y transiciones sólidas hacia agroecosistemas sostenibles y resilientes a largo plazo. ; This research was conducted within the PhD program "Natural Resources and Sustainable Management" in the research team on Agroecology, Food Sovereignty and Commons of the University of Córdoba (Spain), and the Soil and Water Conservation Research Group of the Centre for Applied Soil Science and Biology of the Segura, of the Spanish National Research Council (CEBAS-CSIC), and supported by a PhD fellowship of La Caixa Foundation (ID100010434) (LCF/BQ/ES17/11600008) Chapter 4 - This work was supported by "la Caixa" Foundation (ID100010434) through a PhD fellowship to RLS (LCF/BQ/ES17/11600008), and by the projects DECADE (Séneca Foundation, 20917/PI/18), and XTREME (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation PID2019-109381RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033). Chapter 5 - This work was supported by "la Caixa" Foundation (ID100010434) through a PhD fellowship to RLS (LCF/BQ/ES17/11600008), and by the projects DECADE (Seneca Foundation, 20917/PI/18), XTREME (Ministry of Science and Innovation PID2019-109381RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and COASTAL (EU H2020 grant agreement N° 773782). For the Portuguese co-authors, this work was partially funded by National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology under the Project UIDB/05183/2020. ; Chapter 2 - This chapter was published as: Luján Soto, R., Cuéllar Padilla, M., and de Vente, J. 2020. Participatory selection of soil quality indicators for monitoring the impacts of regenerative agriculture on ecosystem services. Ecosystem Services, 45, 101157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101157Chapter 3 - This chapter was published as: Luján Soto, R., Martínez-Mena, M., Cuéllar Padilla, M., and de Vente, J. 2021. Restoring soil quality of woody agroecosystems in Mediterranean drylands through regenerative agriculture. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 306, 107191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2020.107191Chapter 4 - This chapter is a preprint version adapted from: Luján Soto, R., de Vente, J., and Cuéllar Padilla, M. 2021. Learning from farmers´ experiences with participatory monitoring and evaluation of regenerative agriculture based on visual soil assessment. Journal of Rural Studies (in review)Chapter 5 - This chapter is adapted and published as: Luján Soto, R., Cuéllar Padilla, M., Rivera Méndez, M., PintoCorreia, T., Boix-Fayos, C., and de Vente, J. 2021. Participatory monitoring and evaluation of regenerative agriculture to enable social learning, adoption and out-scaling. Ecology & Society. ; Peer reviewed

El objetivo principal de nuestra tesis doctoral es presentar propuestas de regulación del régimen jurídico brasileño de evaluación de impacto ambiental, buscando fijar los elementos imprescindibles para que tal instrumento jurídico pueda funcionar eficazmente y coherentemente con el alto grado de protección ambiental que se desea lograr, ayudando a nuestro país a integrar la protección del medio ambiente en sus políticas de desarrollo económico. No obstante, para llegar a un esquema investigativo que nos permita el desarrollo de una propuesta institucional eficiente para Brasil, nos ocupamos también de describir los antecedentes, principios y objetivos de la política medioambiental brasileña en un intento de delimitar el tema específico objeto de nuestra tesis doctoral, a partir de consideraciones sobre el estado de derecho socioambiental instituido en Brasil con la promulgación de la Constitución Federal de 1988. Debemos poner de relieve que la utilización de la Unión Europea y en especial España y Francia como referencias obedece a supuestos comparativos estrictos, pues lo que pretendemos es determinar cómo se podrá perfeccionar la evaluación ambiental de proyectos e implantar en Brasil la evaluación ambiental estratégica, a partir de la experiencia exitosa de la Unión Europea, buscando la construcción de un corpus institucional que permita que Brasil logre un mayor desarrollo social, económico y político. Hay que dejar claro que no es la intención de este estudio usar el proceso europeo y las demás legislaciones nacionales como un modelo a implantar tal cual en Brasil sino más bien como una referencia a tener en cuenta, puesto que se tratan de Estados distintos, es decir, consideramos las disparidades y diferencias existentes entre Brasil y los países supra citados. Los avances tecnológicos realizados en los dos últimos siglos no fueron capaces de disminuir la incertidumbre acerca de los efectos de las actividades humanas en la naturaleza. Al contrario, en estos momentos, la sociedad teme más que nunca que los actuales modelos de producción y consumo generen, en un corto espacio de tiempo, efectos aún más devastadores e imprevisibles. El cambio climático, la escasez del agua, el agotamiento de fuentes energéticas y de otros recursos naturales son problemas que constituyen una amenaza real a nivel mundial . La necesidad de implantación y observancia de los principios de prevención y precaución, destacados en la Declaración de la Cumbre de Río, en 1992, es incontestable. En este contexto, la evaluación de impacto ambiental se presenta como un mecanismo indispensable para una actuación política capaz de conducir las actividades productivas en la perspectiva de la sostenibilidad. Aunque en el ordenamiento jurídico brasileño estén vigentes numerosas normas, tanto en el ámbito constitucional, legal o infra legal, para la regulación de la materia, id est, el régimen jurídico de protección del medio ambiente y en especial el sistema de evaluación de impacto ambiental de proyectos (EIA), ello no impide en Brasil la autorización administrativa de proyectos altamente impactantes (desde el punto de vista ambiental) y tampoco se exige a su promotor, ni la realización de las medidas de mitigación necesarias, ni se le imponen medidas compensatorias proporcionales a la magnitud de los impactos ambientales negativos generados por los proyectos y actividades objeto de la autorización. De la misma manera, en Brasil, los conflictos inherentes a la incorporación de lo condicionante ambiental al proceso de toma de decisiones públicas son frecuentes y exacerbados, lo que se debe, sobre todo, a la escasa transparencia del procedimiento administrativo de autorización ambiental y a la insuficiente participación ciudadana . Como consecuencia de la globalización, las normas de preservación del medio ambiente aparecen como óbices que retardan y dificultan el crecimiento económico del país, argumento este utilizado por el poder económico para obligar a los gobiernos a flexibilizar las normas de protección ambiental bajo la amenaza de invertir en otros países. Brasil ha cedido a estas presiones ejercidas por el capital, implementando políticas neoliberales que apoyan la flexibilización de las leyes de protección del medio ambiente . Con el objetivo de romper con ese movimiento irresponsable de regresión de la legislación de la protección ambiental, destacaremos la importancia de introducir mejoras en el régimen jurídico de la evaluación de impacto ambiental. En la presente tesis analizaremos el concepto de la evaluación de impacto ambiental, sus modalidades y su incorporación a diversos ordenamientos jurídicos a partir de finales de la década de los 60 del pasado siglo. En este sentido, estudiaremos el régimen jurídico europeo de evaluación de impacto ambiental y la transposición normativa realizada por el derecho español y francés, así como su repercusión, analizando los resultados obtenidos después de más de 40 años de experiencia en el uso de la evaluación de impacto ambiental en estos países con distintas tradiciones jurídicas y ambientales en relación a Brasil. El ejercicio comparativo nos llevará a presentar observaciones y sugerencias, consistentes en innovaciones metodológicas y mejoras procedimentales al régimen jurídico de la EIA vigente en Brasil, además de constatar la imprescindible y urgente necesidad de institucionalización de la evaluación de impacto ambiental de planes y programas, o lo que es lo mismo, la evaluación ambiental estratégica (EAE) en el ordenamiento jurídico brasileño. Mejoras estas que podrán conferir la necesaria transversalidad a las políticas públicas de preservación medioambiental, materializándose el principio de integración de la protección del medio ambiente en todas las políticas públicas, requisito indispensable para que se consiga un desarrollo económico que, de facto, pueda considerarse sostenible. El objetivo de este trabajo es, pues, apuntar medidas capaces de promover la mejora del régimen jurídico brasileño de la EIA y de la EAE, haciéndolo más completo, eficaz y eficiente. Con ello, en nuestra opinión, se evitará la producción de daños ambientales injustificables, a tenor de los beneficios económicos y sociales generados por la ejecución de las acciones planeadas, pues el carácter preventivo de la evaluación de impacto ambiental y su capacidad de orientar las acciones humanas para que estas se amolden a la necesidad de preservación del medio ambiente, son atributos necesarios para garantizar la utilización racional de los recursos naturales, de manera que el medio ambiente se integre armónicamente en el proceso productivo, evitando el desperdicio de recursos naturales y los daños ambientales. Asimismo, estos cambios que vamos a proponer conferirán, a nuestro juicio, mayor legitimidad a las leyes, a las políticas, planes y programas de gobierno implementados, una vez que la amplia participación ciudadana es un requisito intrínseco de los procedimientos de evaluación de impacto ambiental. CONTENIDO DE LA INVESTIGACIÓN La metodología que vamos a seguir en esta investigación es la que comúnmente se desarrolla en este tipo de estudios científicos jurídico-sociales, fundando nuestra investigación en la doctrina, legislación y jurisprudencia, que consideramos más autorizadas a la hora de proponer medidas para la mejora del régimen jurídico brasileño de la EIA y de la EAE. La metodología debe centrarse en los aspectos principales establecidos para una investigación relacionada con el ámbito del derecho ambiental, sobre todo por el carácter fragmentario del marco normativo e institucional que se encuentra en la producción y aplicación de las normas ambientales. En este sentido, deberán utilizarse métodos que permitan el análisis de la evolución de la normativa ambiental, específicamente de los principios generales del derecho ambiental y de los procedimientos de evaluación de impactos, dada su naturaleza obligatoria. Por lo tanto, el método histórico permitirá analizar cómo se desarrollaron los diferentes mecanismos de evaluación del impacto ambiental. También el método inductivo permitirá ver cuáles fueron los instrumentos de regulación incorporados por Brasil que efectivamente influyeron en la formación legislativa ambiental volcada hacia la creación de subsistemas específicos de evaluación de impactos. También se adoptará el método comparativo para establecer cómo es la adopción, aplicación y ejecución de las medidas relacionadas con la evaluación de impactos en España, en Francia y en la Unión Europea, aunque no se pretende crear ni adoptar un "modelo" específico, pues, como se ha señalado anteriormente, las diferencias existentes entre los sistemas jurídicos nacionales lo impide. Aún sobre los aspectos teóricos y metodológicos, buscamos seguir una vertiente critico-metodológica que, en las palabras de GUSTIN y DIAS : Supone una teoría crítica de la realidad y sostiene dos tesis de gran valor para repensar la ciencia del derecho y de sus fundamentos y objeto: la primera sostiene que el pensamiento jurídico es tópico y no deductivo, es problemático y no sistemático. Esa tesis trabaja con la idea de la razón práctica y de la razón prudencial para favorecer la decisión jurídica. La segunda tesis forma parte de la versión postulada por la teoría del discurso y por la teoría de la argumentación. Esa línea comprende el derecho como una red compleja de lenguajes y significados. Por supuesto, la multidisciplinariedad que siempre está presente en el tema de la protección del medio ambiente deberá abordarse desde el contexto de los temas transversales, tales como la ecología, la biodiversidad, los recursos hídricos, la gestión de los residuos, etc. Estos temas se vinculan, sin duda, a la aplicación de los principios generales del derecho ambiental y a los procedimientos de evaluación de impacto ambiental. Tampoco podremos dejar de tratar su perspectiva histórica. Aunque se ha descrito brevemente, tuvo especial relevancia para el conocimiento de las circunstancias en las cuales se basaron las políticas medioambientales europea y brasileña. La estructura es el soporte de una investigación, siendo además la base que otorga coherencia al estudio. Los contenidos que se abordarán a lo largo de la presente tesis son ciertamente heterogéneos, por lo que se hace necesario encontrar el modo de conectarlos adecuadamente. Como nuestra tesis se fundamenta en un examen eminentemente comparativo, es menester realizar una precisión de orden metodológico con relación al derecho comparado que se utilizará a lo largo de la presente investigación. Para facilitar el ejercicio de comparación que presentamos, hemos dividido la presente tesis doctoral en dos partes, subdivididas en ocho capítulos. En este formato, la primera parte trata de la evolución de las políticas medioambientales de la Unión Europea y de Brasil. En el capítulo I nos dedicaremos al estudio de la evolución histórica y de la contextualización del concepto y de la definición del principio de desarrollo sostenible a fin de demostrar el camino recorrido hasta su concepción multidimensional actual. En el capítulo II, antes de adentrarnos en el tema de los principios generales del medio ambiente, presentaremos breves consideraciones sobre la distinción doctrinal entre principios y reglas jurídicas. A continuación, abordaremos el principio de ¿No Regresión¿, poniendo de relieve su importancia como principio rector del derecho ambiental. También destacaremos la interrelación entre la evaluación de impacto ambiental y los más importantes principios funcionales del derecho ambiental, además de señalar su conexión con el principio de integración ambiental y con el objetivo del desarrollo sostenible. En el capítulo III analizaremos brevemente la política medioambiental de la Unión Europea, destacando los aspectos que consideramos más relevantes para la comprensión de la evolución de la política medioambiental en el viejo continente, sobre todo intentando comprender porqué y de qué manera la UE está siendo capaz de lograr inserir la preservación ambiental en todas las acciones y políticas que repercuten en el medio ambiente. En el capítulo IV nos dedicaremos a describir y averiguar cómo se desarrolló la política medioambiental en Brasil. En este capítulo, presentaremos las bases del nuevo constitucionalismo ambiental brasileño, o sea, el estado de derecho socioambiental, instituido en Brasil por la Constitución Federal de 1988. La segunda parte es, indudablemente, el núcleo principal de la tesis doctoral, en la cual describimos la actual estructura del régimen jurídico brasileño de evaluación de impacto ambiental, analizándolo desde una visión crítica, a fin de determinar las vicisitudes que esta estructura comporta en aras de fijar los elementos que pueden ser modificados y perfeccionados. En el Capítulo V, realizaremos un análisis de la evolución histórica de la evaluación de impacto ambiental, abordando sus antecedentes y evolución en Europa. En seguida pasaremos al estudio de la evaluación ambiental de proyectos analizando los principales aspectos de esa herramienta jurídica en Brasil y en España y mencionando, aunque brevemente, el sistema francés de evaluación de impacto ambiental de proyectos. El capítulo VI se dedicará al estudio de la evaluación ambiental estratégica. Se pondrán de relieve las principales diferencias entre la EIA y la EAE, con el objetivo de comprobar que los dos instrumentos son complementarios e igualmente necesarios para el funcionamiento de un sistema de evaluación de impacto ambiental que se desee eficaz y eficiente. En este capítulo destacaremos la importancia de la evaluación ambiental estratégica de las leyes y de las políticas públicas. Aunque la aplicación de tales modalidades de evaluación estratégica no tenga carácter obligatorio en los Estados miembros de la UE es el objetivo de este estudio demostrar que son también necesarias para concretar el principio de integración ambiental, ya que es incontestable que las leyes y las políticas públicas pueden generar impactos significativos en el medio ambiente. En el capítulo VII trataremos de la participación ciudadana en la evaluación del impacto ambiental. A partir de consideraciones sobre la participación ciudadana en los regímenes jurídicos brasileño y español, intentaremos aportar sugerencias para ampliar la participación ciudadana en los procedimientos de evaluación del impacto ambiental. La propuesta institucional expuesta en el Capítulo VIII constituye la verdadera aportación de la tesis doctoral, al establecer las características, la naturaleza jurídica y los requisitos que deberán orientar la institucionalización de la evaluación ambiental estratégica en Brasil. Para conseguir este objetivo, analizaremos en primer lugar los efectos de las políticas neoliberales implantadas en Brasil en los últimos años. A partir de los errores identificados en la política medioambiental de nuestro país en una sociedad de riesgo, indicaremos las razones que nos llevan a considerar la evaluación ambiental estratégica como uno de los instrumentos más eficaces para garantizar la sostenibilidad, que solo se alcanzará poniendo en práctica el principio de integración de la protección del medio ambiente en todas las acciones públicas de desarrollo. Finalmente, destacamos que nuestra aportación se basa en la creación de un sistema que incremente el grado de protección volcada hacia la tutela anticipatoria de los riesgos que podrían causar daños al medioambiente. CONCLUSIONES PRIMERA: Se constata que en Brasil los efectos ambientales de las acciones de desarrollo económico no son sistemáticamente evaluados, ya sea en el ámbito federal, por el Instituto Brasileño del Medio Ambiente (IBAMA), o ya sea en el ámbito estatal, por los distintos organismos estatales con competencia en materia medioambiental. En este sentido, se ha pronunciado una auditoría realizada por el Tribunal de Cuentas de la Unión Federal ¿ TCU en 2009, que ha puesto de relieve que el IBAMA en el proceso de otorgamiento de licencias ambientales no tiene un sistema eficiente para evaluar los beneficios de la concesión de licencias y el impacto real de las obras o emprendimientos licenciados en el medio ambiente. Y, además, señala que no son utilizados por el citado instituto (IBAMA) instrumentos capaces de identificar y medir los beneficios, ni siquiera saber si las medidas de preservación del medio ambiente están siendo adoptadas por los responsables. Hay una falta sistemática de seguimiento de las licencias concedidas. La falta de seguimiento del impacto ambiental de las actividades licenciadas obstaculiza el desarrollo de normas y criterios para orientar a los promotores y a sus equipos técnicos en la preparación del estudio de impacto ambiental, lo que genera un círculo vicioso. Además, con mayor seguridad en torno a la falta de seguimiento de las licencias ambientales, se observa, asimismo, que, en Brasil, acarrea la ausencia de verificación y por tanto la imposibilidad de proponer medidas para disminuir los impactos ambientales negativos de la obra o actividad, permitiendo que ocurra graves e irreversibles daños ambientales. Además, se constata que en Brasil durante el procedimiento de otorgamiento de licencias ambientales se producen indeseables injerencias, como las presiones políticas para la concesión de licencias, como hemos visto ha tenido lugar con la autorización de la Central Hidroeléctrica de Belo Monte. SEGUNDA: Se constata la escasa efectividad del sistema de evaluación del impacto ambiental en Brasil. Las causas que motivan esta escasa efectividad pueden resumirse en las siguientes: a) La no vinculación del órgano ambiental responsable de la concesión de licencias ambientales a lo apuntado en los estudios técnicos realizados durante el procedimiento de licenciamiento ambiental. b) La no vinculación del órgano ambiental responsable de la concesión de licencias a lo discutido en las audiencias públicas, excluyéndose a los ciudadanos de la participación en el proceso de toma de decisiones. c) La baja calidad de los estudios técnicos y la inconsistencia de sus diagnósticos, dada la falta de una valoración adecuada de los proyectos, lo que lleva a resultados y conclusiones negligentes, contrarios a la teoría y estudios científicos existentes. d) La falta de imparcialidad de los técnicos contratados, que presentan análisis tendenciosos y de baja calidad técnica para apoyar los objetivos de los proponentes del proyecto. e) La vulneración del derecho de los ciudadanos de acceso a la información medioambiental. f) La ausencia de sanciones efectivas, tanto de naturaleza civil, como penal, a los funcionarios responsables de la expedición de licencias, así como a los técnicos responsables de la elaboración de los estudios medioambientales e incluso a los proponentes de los proyectos, por incumplimiento de las normas que regulan la evaluación de impacto ambiental en Brasil, cuando sea pertinente y esté prevista en el ordenamiento jurídico vigente. TERCERA: Como ha quedado expuesto, la evaluación de impacto ambiental de proyectos y la evaluación ambiental estratégica son instrumentos complementarios e interdependientes. Como hemos señalado, un sistema de evaluación de impacto ambiental para que sea completo, eficaz y eficiente necesita establecer la evaluación de los impactos ambientales desde la fase embrionaria del proceso de toma de decisiones, esto es, desde la fase del planeamiento estratégico del desarrollo, cuando, al menos en teoría, todas las opciones aún están abiertas, incluso, la opción cero, que significa no realizar la acción cuando los estudios ambientales realizados demuestren que sus potenciales beneficios no justificarían los perjuicios que su implementación traería al medio ambiente. Pues bien, en virtud de lo expuesto, concluimos que el sistema de evaluación de impacto ambiental brasileño es incompleto, ineficiente e ineficaz, ya que no determina, no contempla, la evaluación de impacto ambiental a partir de la fase del planeamiento estratégico. CUARTA: El crecimiento económico continua siendo el principal objetivo de las políticas públicas en Brasil, que posterga y desplaza a un segundo plano la protección ambiental. En este sentido, hemos podido comprobar cómo alcanza incluso al Poder Legislativo que ha dado origen a un movimiento de flexibilización de la legislación de protección del medio ambiente. Así pues, bajo la ¿justificación¿ (burda excusa) de que el rigor de las leyes ambientales está suponiendo un obstáculo para el crecimiento económico del país, se están promulgando leyes que permiten la ocupación irrestricta de áreas de protección ambiental, que amnistían de penalidades a los causadores de daños ambientales o que flexibilizan las normas procedimentales de protección ambiental, que están permitiendo autorizar obras y actividades sin que sus impactos ambientales sean previamente evaluados, causando un grave retroceso en materia de protección medioambiental y desarrollo sostenible. QUINTA: Además de lo anterior, también hemos puesto de relieve en nuestro estudio la ausencia de reglamentación jurídica de la EAE en Brasil. A nuestro juicio, ésta es la principal deficiencia del régimen jurídico brasileño de evaluación de impacto ambiental. Tal deficiencia le impide a Brasil hacer efectivo el principio de integración de la protección del medio ambiente en su proceso de crecimiento económico, sobre todo, ello es aún más grave si se tiene en cuenta que el desarrollo sostenible constituye un principio y un objetivo del Estado de Derecho Socioambiental establecido por la Constitución Federal de 1988. Por ello, ante esta grave deficiencia del ordenamiento jurídico ambiental brasileño, hemos propuesto (con la finalidad de suplir esta laguna jurídica) una metodología inspirada en el derecho comparado, en el derecho europeo y en la normativa de algunos de sus Estados miembros, para que, sobre todo (sin ánimo de exhaustividad en este momento) se someta a evaluación de impacto ambiental las decisiones públicas desde la fase de su planificación, gestionando los riesgos al medio ambiente, garantizando que la participación ciudadana sea real y efectiva en dicho procedimiento, lo que conferirá mayor legitimidad a las políticas públicas. Además, nuestra propuesta llega más lejos, pues, entendemos que en Brasil no solo los planes y programas capaces de generar impactos ambientales significativos deben ser sometidos a EAE, sino que también deben serlo las leyes que tengan tal potencialidad. 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Беневич Г. И. Логос Мелхиседека. Экзегеза и парадигма обожения у прп. Максима Исповедника В этой статье рассматривается один из сложнейших вопросов библейской экзегетики образ Мелхиседека и его связь с образом Христа. На материале ряда сочинений прп. Максима Исповедника показывается значение этого вопроса для восточного богословия VII в. Ключевые слова: Максим Исповедник, Мелхиседек, Христос, экзегетика. Benevich G. I. Logos of Melchizedek. The Учупуышы and Paradigm of Deification in the Works of Maximus the Confessor In the article, there is regarded one of the most complex matters of the Bible exegesis, i. e. image of Melchizedek and its relation to the image of Christ. The meaning of the matter for Eastern Theology of the VII century is shown through a set of writings of St. Maximus the Confessor. Key words: Maximus the Confessor, Melchizedek, Christ, exegesis. Бирюков Д. С. Николай Мефонский и его полемика с учением Прокла в контексте византийского проклренессанса Статья посвящена особенностям полемики византийского церковного писателя XII в. Николая Мефонского с учением Прокла. Указано на платонизирующих византийских авторов современной Николаю эпохи, с которыми он мог неявно полемизировать. На примере преломления Николаем платонического учения об иерархии причин сущего и учения об универсалиях показано, что Николай склонялся к номинализму и расходился в этом как с неортодоксальными, так и с некоторыми ортодоксальными авторами, а также с распространенной в Византии позицией, характерной для Александрийской школы Аммония, предполагающей троякий способ существования универсалий. Ключевые слова: византийская философия, проблема универсалий, платонизм, Александрийская школа философии, византийский проклренессанс. Birjukov D. S Nicholas of Methone and His Polemics Against Proclus in the Context of the Byzantine Proclosrenaissance The article is concerned on the features in polemics of the Byzantine Church author Nicholas of Methone with the authorities who kept the doctrine of Proclus in XII century. We have suggested the names of the authors in Nicholas' epoch, with whom he could maintain his latent dialogue in his writings. On the example of interpreting the Platonian notion concerning the hierarchy of causes of Being and the notion of Universals we show that Nicholas whose more inclined to Nominalism, fallen into divergence both with Non-orthodox and same Orthodox authors on that point. So that the analysis of his writings reveals the difference with the widespread position in Byzantium, characteristic to the Alexandrian school of Ammonius, which supported the Doctrine of Universals' existing in three modes. Key words: Byzantine philosophy, the problem of universals, Platonism, Alexandrian school, Proklosrenaissance. Бурановская Н. А. Сакрализация камня в культуре Средневековой Индии Сакрализация камня как наиболее долговечного материала, способного запечатлеть ценностные доминанты и духовные смыслы культуры, характерна для большинства цивилизаций Востока. В данной статье рассматривается космологическая символика индуистских храмов, являвшихся в своей исторической эволюции развитием идеи жертвенного алтаря. Ключевые слова: Индия, индуизм, каменное храмовое зодчество, сакрализация камня. Buranovsky N. A. Stone Sacralization in Culture of Medieval India The stone sacralization as the most durable material, capable to embody valuable dominants and spiritual senses of culture, is characteristic for the majority of civilisations of the East. In given article the cosmological symbolism of Hindu temples which were development of idea of a sacrificial altar in the historical evolution. Key words: India, Hindu, stone temple architecture, a stone sacralization. Бурмистров С. Л. Эстетика неоведантизма и принцип dhvani В статье на примере философии искусства С. Дасгупты рассматриваются некоторые особенности неоведантистской эстетики и ее связи с эстетическими представлениям древней Индии и с западной эстетической мыслью (Г. В. Ф. Гегель). Анализируется роль понятия dhvani (намек, скрытый смысл) в индийской эстетике и особенности восприятия неоведантистами гегелевского учения об искусстве как образном воплощении идеи. Ключевые слова: эстетика, прекрасное, неоведантизм, Гегель, dhvani. Burmistrov S. L. Esthetics of Neo-Vedantism and the Dhvani Principle In the paper specific features of neo-vedāntist aesthetics (S. Dasgupta's philosophy of art) are considered and its relations with aesthetic theories of ancient India and with Western aesthetic thought (G. W. F. Hegel) are examined. The main topic of the paper are the role of the concept dhvani (hint) in Indian aesthetics and specific features of neo-vedāntist reception of Hegel's theory of art as an embodiment of an idea. Keywords: Aesthetics, beauty, neo-vedāntism, Hegel, dhvani. Гольцев Д. В. Образ Храма в истории и современной культуре евреев Единство языка, традиций, культуры, которые еврейский народ сохраняет на протяжении более четырех тысяч лет покоятся на религиозном фундаменте иудаизма. Желание иудеев жить в чистом и святом мире, который был утерян прародителями после грехопадения, воплотилось в Храме. Идея Храма укоренена в самих истоках истории еврейского народа. И вся история евреев по сей день неразрывно связана с Храмом. Ключевые слова: культура, религиозное сознание, Храм, синагога. Goltsev D. V. Image of the Temple in the History and Contemporary Culrure of Jews The unity of language, traditions, and culture preserving by the Jewish people throughout more than four thousands years base on the religious foundation of Judaism. The desire of Jews to live in the clear and holy world lost by progenitors after the Fall had been embodied in Temple. The idea of the Temple is grounded in the very origins of Jewish history. And the whole history of Jews is intimately connected with the Temple to the present time. Key words: culture, religious consciousness, the Temple, synagogue. Воробьева-Десятовская М. И. Мечников Л. И. и русская цивилизация XIX в. Статья посвящена страницам биографии Л. И. Мечникова. Автор анализирует его жизненный путь, чтобы выяснить, когда ученый задался вопросом о причинах зарождения цивилизаций. Он считал ошибочным усматривать причину зарождения древних цивилизаций в благоприятных климатических условиях, поскольку климатические условия, в которых зарождались цивилизации, не были идентичны. Л. И. Мечников первым в русской науке сделал шаг к выявлению роли географического фактора в историко-цивилизационном процессе. Ключевые слова: первобытная культура, географический фактор, изменения климатических условий Vorob'yova-Desyatovskaya M. I. L. I. Mechnikov and the Russian Civilization of the XIX Century. This article is devoted to crucial points of L. I. Mechnikov's biography. The author analyzed his life story in order to explain how he conceived the idea of civilizations' origin. Mechnikov rejected auspicious climatic conditions as the main cause of the ancient civilizations' arising. He proved the exceptional role of geographical factor of historical-civilizational process. Mechnikov was the first Russian scientist who represented this mode of thinking. Key words: primitive culture, the geographical factor, changes of environmental conditions. Джибраев А. Ю. Судан-2011: грядущая религиозно-иделогическая реструктуризация До референдума 2011 г. о разделении Судана на южное и северное государства осталось менее года. В контексте столкновения западного, американского образца, и исламского проектов глобализации актуальным представляется и обсуждение, и прогнозирование геополитических последствий референдума. Cтатья посвящена анализу суданского узла пересечения интересов Запада и стран исламского мира: социально-политической и экономической ангажированность Судана, внутрисуданских политических противоречий, позиций Евросоюза и США в разделении Республики Судан. Ключевые слова: геополитика, суданский референдум, исламистские национальные движения Dzhibraev A. Y. Sudan-2011: Сoming Religious & Ideological Restructurization Less than one year has been left prior to the Referendum-2011, targeted to divide Sudan on the South and North states. In the context of clash of the Western, American and Islamic Globalization Projects, to discuss and forecast the geopolitical implication of the Referendum seem to be actual. This article is designated for analyzing the Sudanese intersection node of the Western and Islamic countries' interests and meaning the social & political involvement and commitment of Sudan, internal Sudanese political contradictions, and the EU & EC positions on division matters of the Republic of Sudan. The attention is focused to discussing the forthcoming reaction to the Referendum results in the conditions of a potential local East Africa's conflict transplantation into the ideological fields of challenge for various Globalization Projects and with the view of preventing the negative consequences for the neighboring regions regarding formation of two independent states. Key words: geopolitics, Sudanese Referendum, islamist national movements. Ермакова Т. В. Вклад монголоведа А. М. Позднеева в исследование буддийской культуры Статья посвящена анализу вклада монголоведа А. М. Позднеева в исследование буддийской культуры. Проанализированы результаты двух его поездок в Монголию (1876, 1892): описание буддийских монастырей в аспекте управления, религиозных практик, архитектуры и повседневной жизни, восстановлена его концепция историко-культурной уникальности центральноазиатской региональной формы буддийской культуры. Ключевые слова: буддизм, Монголия, российские экспедиции. Ermakova T. V. Personal contribution of mongolist A. M. Pozdneev into Buddhist culture research This article is devoted to the evaluation of the personal contribution of the Russian mongolist A. M. Pozdneev into Buddhist culture research. Notable results of his two expeditions into Mongolian region were analyzed: complex description of the Mongol Buddhist monasteries in various aspects: management, religious practices, architecture and everyday life. Pozdneev's conceptualization of Mongol regional form of Buddhist culture was analyzed. Key words: Buddhism, Mongolia, the Russian expeditions. Касаткина З. А. Дирижерско-хоровая педагогика и образование в России на современном этапе Статья посвящена проблемам теории хорового дирижирования, методике преподавания дирижирования, а также вопросам полифункциональности данной профессии. Рассматривается проблема качественной подготовки и воспитания хорового дирижера высокой квалификации, выявление специфических дирижерских способностей, раскрытие понятия дирижерско-хоровая школа, определение основных методологических и теоретических аспектов основ системы хорового образования и исполнительства. Ключевые слова: теория хорового дирижирования, дирижерско-хоровое образование, педагог, музыкант, дирижерско-хоровая школа. Kasatkina Z. A. Choir Conducting Pedagogy and Education in Russia at Present Days The article is dedicated to theoretical questions of choir conducting, choir conducting teaching methodology as well as to questions related to multifunction of this profession. The author contemplates such issues as: education of highly qualified choir conductor, revelation of specific conductor skills, academic detailing of meaning for choir conducting school, determination of basic methodological and theoretical aspects of choir and performance educational system and its basis. Key words: theory of choir conducting, choir conducting education, pedagogue, musician, choir conducting school. Климов В. Ю. Светские власти, Рэннё, восьмой иерарх буддийской школы истинной веры Чистой Земли, и ее адепты в средневековой Японии В XVI в. крупные феодалы сэнгоку-даймё законодательными мерами стремились запретить деятельность адептов буддийской школы дзёдо синсю. Школа была основана Святым Синраном (1173-1263). Рэннё (1415-1499) в XV в. сумел создать мощную религиозную организацию. Он отстаивал основные положения Учения школы, борясь с искажениями и ересями. Ключевые слова: религиозное движение икко-икки, буддистская школа дзёдо синсю, Синран, Рэннё, буддистский храм Хонгандзи. Klimov V. J. In the XVI-th century feudal lords sengoku daimyo tried to prohibit the activities of religious followers of Buddhist school jodo shinshu by law The Buddhist school was founded by Saint Shinran (1173-1263). In the XV-th century Rennyo (1415-1499) managed to create a powerful religious organization. He was supporting main statements of the religious doctrine, and was fighting against its misinterpretations and heresies. Key words: Religious movement ikko-ikki, Buddhist school jodo shinshu, Shinran, Rennyo, Buddhist temple Honganji. Ларионова Д. Г. Лингвокультурные предпосылки формирования концепта родина Статья посвящена формированию концепта родина на фоне американской лингвокультуры. Анализируются типологические особенности русской и американской культур, обусловившие различия в значимости концепта для языкового сознания русских и американцев. Исследуются лингвокультурные предпосылки формирования концепта родина как базового концепта русской культуры. Сопоставляются переводные соответствия концепта в русском языке и американском варианте английского языка. Ключевые слова: родина, концепт, русская культура, американская культура, лингвокультура, Larionov D. G. Lingual-Cultural Premises of Formation of the Motherland Concept The article is dedicated to the formation of the motherland concept against the background of the American lingual culture. The typological features of the Russian and American cultures that cause different meaning of the concept in the lingual consciousness of the Russian and American people are analyzed. The lingual cultural premises of formation of the motherland concept as a basic concept of the Russian culture are considered. The translated equivalents of the concept in the Russian and American English are compared. Key words: motherland, concept, Russian culture, American culture, lingual culture. Марахонова С. И. Выдающийся исследователь японской художественной культуры Сергей Елисеев и его петроградское окружение Статья посвящена деятельности С. Елисеева в области искусств, которое было его центральным интересом, что дает повод историкам считать его, прежде всего, специалистом в области дальневосточной культуры и искусств. Елисеев начал свои исследовательские изыскания, обучаясь в Японии. Позже, в 1915-1920 в Петрограде он подготовил лекции по дальневосточному искусству для Государственного университета и других институтов. Елисеев прожил первое десятилетие в эмиграции в Париже, где он работал как хранитель японской коллекции в музее Гиме. Парижский период был самым плодотворным для научной деятельности. С 1934 по 1958 С. Елисеев профессор Гарвардского университета США и директор Института Гарварда. Ключевые слова: востоковедение, Сергей Елисеев, дальневосточное искусство, культура Японии и Китая. Marakhonova S. I. The Outstanding Far Easten Fine Arts'scholar Serge Elisseeff and His Petrograd Environment The article deals with Serge Elisseeff 's activities in the field of fine arts. This was one of his most great interests and he is considered by some people the history of Far Eastern culture and fine arts scholar first of all. Elisseeff began his fine arts studies when a student in Japan. Later in 1915-1920 in Petrograd he prepared a lot of lectures on Far Eastern fine arts at the state university and some other institutes. Elisseeff spent the first decade of his emigration from Russia in Paris where he worked as the Japanese collection keeper in the Guimet museum. The Paris period was the most productive for Elisseeff 's scientific publications most part of which belonged to fine arts' problems. From 1934 to 1958 Serge Elisseeff spent in the USA as the Harvard University professor and director of the Harvard-Yenching Institute. Key words: Oriental studies, Sergey Yeliseyev, Far East arts, culture of Japan and China. Матюшкина Е. Н. Тип героя в исторических романах Б. Окуджавы В статье делается попытка создания типологии героя в исторической прозе Б. Окуджавы. Для этого рассмотрены произведения Бедный Авросимов, Похождения Шипова или Старинный водевиль, Свидание с Бонапартом, Путешествие дилетантов. В романах Окуджавы происходит трансформация героя середины XX века, наблюдается своеобразная модификация образов маленького человека (Авросимов, Шипов, Опочинин), лишнего человека (Мятлев). Ключевые слова: историческая проза, типология героя, маленький человек, лишний человек. Matyshkina E. N. Type the Hero in Historical Novels B. Okudzhava The seeks to make a typology of the hero in historical prose B. Okudzhava. To do this, consider the product Poor Avrosimov, The Adventures Shipova or old vaudeville, Rendezvous with Bonaparte, Journey dilettantes. In the novels there is a transformation of the hero Okudzhava mid XX century, there has been a kind of modification of images of the little man (Avrosimov, Shipov, Opochinin), superfluous man (Myatlev). Key words: historical prose, the typology of the hero, little man, superfluous man. Махлина С. Т. Значение Эдварда Саида в современной культуре и культурологи Доминантным аспектом современной культуры является глобализация. Конечно, это явление имеет черты двойственности. Основные особенности глобализации очень ярко воплотились в судьбе и творчестве Эдварда Вади Саида (1 ноября 1935 г. 25 сентября 2003 г.). И жизнь, и творчество, и политическая, и общественная деятельность его настолько двойственны, что отражают все противоречия глобализации. Фигура Эдварда Саида весьма 320 показательна для современной эпохи и, несомненно, значима для современной культуры и культурологии. Ключевые слова: глобализация, культура, культурология, Запад, Восток, ислам. Mahlina S. T. Edward Said's Value in Modern Culture and Cultural Science Globalisation is a dominant aspect of modern culture. This phenomenon is surely of dual nature. Main features of globalization are embodied in the art and life of Edward Wadie Said (1.11.1935-25.09.2003). His art and life, his political and social activity, are so ambiguous that reflect all controversies of globalization. Edward Said is a representative figure of the modern times and is definitely significant for the modern culture and culture studies. Key words: globalization, culture, culture studies, West, East, Islam. Микитюк Ю. М. Категории органической теории в идеологии почвенников В статье рассматриваются основные положения органической теории, раскрывается ее место в идеологии почвенничества. Анализ таких понятий, как народность, нация позволяет раскрыть решение почвенниками проблемы соотношения национального и общечеловеческого. Ключевые слова: органическая теория, нация, народ, почва, Григорьев, Страхов, Достоевский. Mikityuk Y. M. The Organic Theory in Ideology of Pochvenniks This article discusses the basic statements of the ''organic theory', it also reveals its place in the ideology of Pochvennichestvo. The analysis of such concepts as nation, nationality, nation may allow to solve the problem of the relationship between national and universal by representatives of this ideology. Key words: the organic theory, nation, people, national, soil, Grigoriev, Strahov, Dostoevsky. Михайлова М. В. Классический текст как личное бытие Классический текст рассматривается с позиций онтологической эстетики как один из видов личного бытия. Метафизическая потребность, лежащая в основе искусства, особенным образом реализуется в литературе. Благодаря совершенному тексту, гармонично соединяющему стратегии значения и присутствия, становится возможным эстетическое событие встречи автора, читателя и языка, имеющее важнейшим своим следствием перенастройку личности в согласии человека и мира. Ключевые слова: классика, текст, бытие, язык, автор, читатель. Mikhailova M. V. Classical Text as a Personal Being The article deals with the problem of classical text considered from the point of view of ontological esthetics as a kind of personal existence. The metaphysical requirement underlying art, is realized in literature in a special way. Thanks to the perfect text harmoniously connecting meaning and presence strategies, an esthetic event of a meeting of the author, the reader and the language become possible. Key words: classics, text, being, language, author, reader. Муравьев К. В. Два модуса триадологии А. Ф. Лосева В статье рассматривается триадология известного русского философа Алексея Федоровича Лосева, которая соединяет в себе диалектические начала античной философии и христианское православное богословие. Ключевые слова: триадология, ипостась, онтология, неоплатонизм, диалектика. Muravyev K. V. Two Modi of A. F. Losew's Triadology In the article triadology of noted Russian philosopher Alexey Losew which unites the dialectic principles of an ancient philosophy and Christian orthodox divinity is considered. Key words: triadology, hipostasis, ontology, Neo-platonism, dialectics. Островская Е. А. Теория традиционных религиозных идеологий: методологические возможности и горизонты применимости Статья посвящена презентации принципиально нового подхода к социологическому исследованию процессов институционализации религиозных систем. Методологическое ядро разработанного автором подхода составляет теория традиционных религиозных идеологий, содержащая в себе концептуальный инструментарий для изучения религиозных идеологий Запада и Востока. Авторское рассмотрение сфокусировано на теоретико-методологическом разъяснении таких ключевых концепций этой теории, как традиционные религии, религиозная модель общества, аналитическая схема институционализации религиозных систем. Особый интерес представляет предложенная в статье демонстрация методологических возможностей теории в аспекте преодоления эпистемологической ограниченности постхристианских академических моделей изучения религий. Ключевые слова: религиозные идеологии, социология религии, эпистемологические основания научного изучения религий Ostrowskaya E. A. Theory of Traditional Religious Ideologies: Methodological Capabilities and Horizons of Applicability The article presents a new approach to sociological study of religious systems institutionalization processes. In the core of this approach there is a theory of traditional religious ideologies, as providing a methodological tool for analysis of religious ideologies in the context of Western and Asian societies. The focus is brought to the theoretical and methodological clarifications to three key concepts of the theory that are traditional religions, religious model of society and analytical scheme of religious systems institutionalization. The demonstration of their methodological applicability is of great importance for comprehending epistemological limits of post-Christian scientific models for studies of religion. Key words: religious ideologies, sociology of religion, epistemology of scientific studies of religion. Островский А. Б. Категория замирщение в нормативных документах беспоповцев XIX начала XX в. Термин замирщение, употребленный впервые в конце XVII в. федосеевцами, в течение двух столетий прошел эволюцию: первоначально он выражал противостояние христиане (федосеевцы) / (отлученные, новожены, мирские), а во второй половине XIX в. уже служил мерой для оценки степени утраты благочестия конкретным членом беспоповской общины ввиду недозволенных контактов с иноверными в трапезе, совместной помывке в бане и др. ситуациях общения. Ключевые слова: старообрядцы, межконфессиональные отношения, федосеевцы, поморцы, замирщение. Ostrovsky A. B. The Category of Zamirshenie in Bespopovtsian (a Priestless Sect of Russian Old Believers) Regulations of the 19thand Early 20th Century The evolution of the term zamirshenie first used by the Fedoseetsy in the late 17th century: originally representing the opposition between Christians (Fedoseevtsy) and excommunicates, Novojeny (unionists recognizing marriage), and laity, and in the second part of the 19th century censuring imperfect piousness of individual members of priestless community found guilty of inadmissible contacts with adherents of different creed at meals, in a bathhouse or in other communicative situations. Key words: old believers, inter-confessional relations, fedoseevtsy, pomortsy, zamirshenie. Плебанек О. В. Цивилизационная матрица как категория геополитики Современные направления научных исследований глобалистика, геополитика потребовали и нового категориального аппарата. Традиционные понятия, такие как цивилизация, наполняются новым смыслом, на их базе возникают новые категории, такие как геоцивилизация, цивилизационная матрица, алгоритмы цивилизационной динамики и др. Использование новых и относительно новых понятий в новом контексте требует научного обоснования. Нестрогое, многозначное понимание научных категорий снижает их методологическое значение. Ключевые слова: глобалистика, геополитика, цивилизация, геоцивилизация, цивилизационная матрица, алгоритмы цивилизационной динамики. Plebanek O. V. Civilizational Matrix as the category of geopolitics Modern directions of scientific researches global studies, geopolitics have demanded also new categorial the language. Traditional concepts, such as a civilization, are filled with new sense, on their base there are new categories, such as a geocivilization, civilizational a matrix, algorithms civilizational dynamics, etc. Use new and concerning new concepts of a new context demands a scientific substantiation. Not strict, multiple-valued understanding of scientific categories reduces their methodological value. Key words: global studies, geopolitics, a civilisation, a geocivilization, civilization a matrix, algorithms civilizational dynamics. Прокуденкова О. В. Роль географического фактора в культурологической концепции Л. И. Мечникова В статье рассматривается культурологическая концепция выдающегося русского ученого Л. И. Мечникова. Отмечается особое внимание к проблеме географического детерминизма и роли природных условий в генезисе и развитии цивилизаций. Показано, что Мечников обосновывал своеобразие историко-культурного развития географическим фактором, главным из которых была гидросфера водное пространство, ставшее общим объединяющим признаком классификации мировых цивилизаций: речные, морские и океанические. Ключевые слова: географический фактор, гидросфера, цивилизация, географический детерминизм, культурогенез. Prokudenkova O. V. Role of Geographical Factor in the L. I. Mechnikov's Culturological Concept In the article, the culturological concept of outstanding Russian scientist L. I. Mechnikov is considered. Special attention to the problem of geographical determinism and role of environment in genesis and development of civilizations is paid. It is shown that Mechnikov saw the reason of originality of historical and cultural development in geographical factor, mainly, in hydrosphere, as water space is general uniting sign of classification of world civilizations: those of river, sea, and ocean. Key words: geographical factor, hydrosphere, civilization, geographical determinism, genesis of culture. Регинская Н. В. Александр Невский как символ национальной идентичности в современном искусстве Повышенное внимание, уделяемое Александру Невскому сегодня, связано как с незаурядной личностью Благоверного князя, так и с потребностью восстановления национальных символов новой России. Святому Александру Невскому принадлежит роль выдающегося русского героя. Закономерно обращение современного искусства к героике Благоверного князя Александра Невского, изображение которого своеобразно своей двойственностью: сакральноиконографичным содержанием и экспериментально-светской манерой исполнения. Ключевые слова: иконография, традиция, экспериментальное искусство, духовноиконологическое течение, иконная драматургия Reginsky N. V. Alexander Nevsky as a Symbol of National Identity in the Modern Art An increased attention is paid nowadays to Alexander Nevsky owing to the remarkable individuality of the Blessed Knyazh as well as to the need of renewal of New Russia's national symbols. Saint Alexander Nevsky has a role of an outstanding Russian hero. Modern Art logically addresses the heroic stories of the Blessed Knyazh Alexander Nevsky, whose image is peculiar due to its ambivalence: its sacral-iconographic content and experimentally secular manner of fulfillment. Key words: Iconography, Tradition, Experimental Art, Spiritually-Iconological Trend, Iconic Drama. Рысаков А. С. Основные тенденции в конфуцианстве эпохи Цин Статья посвящена аналитическому рассмотрению истории конфуцианского учения в XVII-XIX вв. Рассматриваются различные аспекты трансформации конфуцианства каноноведение, психотехника, доктрина, ритуальные практики. Восстанавливается политический контекст функционирования конфуцианских школ и направлений. Исследуются доктринальные позиции наиболее значимых конфуцианских ученых цинского времени. Ключевые слова: китайская философия, история конфуцианства, история Китая Нового времени. Rysakov A. S. Major Trends in the Qing Dynasty Confucianism The article is devoted to analytical consideration of the history of Confucian teachings in XVII-XIX centuries. Various aspects of the transformation of Confucianism: canon studies, psychotechnique, doctrine, ritual practice are considered. The political context of functioning of Confucian schools and directions is analyzed, as well as the doctrinal position of the most important Qing time Confucian scholars. Key words: Chinese philosophy, the history of Confucianism, Chinese History. 324 Рысакова П. И. Социокультурная специфика женского образования в традиционном китайском обществе Настоящая статья посвящена выявлению социокультурной специфики женского образования в традиционном китайском обществе. Основное внимание уделено анализу конфуцианских доктринальных предписаний, в соответствии с которыми выстраивались ценностно-нормативные представления о социальном статусе и роли женщины в китайском обществе. Рассматривается педагогический идеал традиционного женского образования. Ключевые слова: конфуцианство, женское образование, четыре женские добродетели, талант. Rysakova P. I. Socio-Cultural Specifics of Women Education in Traditional Chinese Society The article deals with the problem of specific features of female education in Chinese traditional society. It primarily focuses on analysis of the doctrine of Confucianism which regulated the normative expectations of women's social status and role in Chinese society. The aim of women's traditional education is considered. Key words: Confucianism, female education, four women's virtues, talent. Свиридова Л. О. Олицетворение ада в Чине погребению священническому В статье изложены результаты наблюдений над постканоническими восточнохристианскими гимнографическими памятниками на церковно-славянском языке. В центре рассмотрения отличительная черта гимнографической образности: олицетворение не только ада, но и рая, космологических уровней, природных объектов и стихий. В образной системе гимнографического текста выявляются космологический и антропоморфический семиотические коды. Ключевые слова: гимнография, книги церковного обихода кирилловской печати, Потребник, семиотические коды, космологические представления. Sviridova L. O. Embodiment of Hell in theOrder of Priestly Burial The results of observation of Eastern Christian post-canonical hymnographic memorials in the Old Church Slavonic language are given in the article. The central idea of the research is the main feature of the hymnographic imagery the embodiment not only of Hell, but of Heaven, cosmological levels, natural objects and elements. In the system of hymnographic texts cosmological and antropomorphic semiotic codes are presented. Key words: hymnography, church books of Cyril print, Potrebnik, semiotic codes, cosmological views. Селивановский В. В. Сциентистские элементы вероучения Движения Веры Сциентизм в теистической религии парадоксален. Этот феномен вероучения неопятидесятнического Движения Веры побуждает обратиться к анализу его генеалогических корней, теологии и эпистемологии. Крайний фидеизм и далёкое от научной рациональности отрицание чувственного опыта позволяет говорить не о сциентистской ориентации сознания, а о квазинаучном флёре, прикрывающем магический характер практики. Ключевые слова: сциентизм, Движение Веры, метафизическое движение, Новое Мышление, закон веры. Selivanovskiy V. V. Scientistic elements of the Word-Faith Movement's doctrine A claim for scientism in theistic religion is paradoxical. This doctrinal phenomenon of the neo-Pentecostal Word-Faith Movement encourages analysis of its genealogical beginnings, theology and epistemology. Extreme forms of fideism and rejection of the sentient experience, which is foreign to the scientific rationality, do not reveal a scientistic orientation of consciousness but rather a quasi-scientific fleur, employed to disguise the magical nature of the movement's practices. Key words: scientism, Word-Faith Movement, metaphysical movement, New Thought, law of faith. Скоморох Олег А., протоиерей. История тюремного служения христианской церкви в связи с пенитенциарными реформами XVIII-XIX вв. Статья касается вопросов, относящихся к истории тюремного служения христианской Церкви в период пенитенциарных реформ США, Великобритании и России XVIII-XIX веков, когда определялась позиция государств и общества, направленная на христианизацию и гуманизацию тюремного заключения вообще и нравственного исправления заключенных, в частности. Цель статьи ознакомить миссионеров Христианской Церкви, совершающих тюремное служение, с развитием и становлением тюремной миссии, как части государственных систем исполнения наказания. Ключевые слова: тюремное служение, миссия, пенитенциарные реформы, капелланство, Церковь и общество. Skomorokh Oleg A. History of Prison Service of Christian Church in Connection with Penitential Reforms during XVIII-XIX Cent. The article touches upon some questions concerning the history of prison ministry of the Christian Church during penitential reforms in the USA, the Great Britain and Russia in the course of XVIII-XIX centuries, when humanizing and Christianizing position towards the Penal Executive System in general and moral correcting of prisoners in details was taking its shape in those states and societies. The objective of the article is to acquaint the Christian Church's missionaries, carrying out prison ministry, with the progress and development of prison mission, as parts of state Penal Executive Systems. Key words: prison ministry, mission, penitential reforms, chaplaincy, Church and society. Фадеева Т. Ф. Повседневные элементы духовной средневековой культуры. Искусство квадрвиума: Музыка В статье предполагается предварительный обзор культурологических аспектов средневековой системы образования. Автор рассматривает некоторые аспекты формирования хоральной культуры как многоступенчатой духовно-музыкальной системы. Ключевые слова: Средние века, образование, музыка, церковная культура, искусство. Fadeeva T. F. The Everyday Elements of the Spiritual Medieval Culture. Art of Quadrivium: Music The article assumes a tentative review of the culturological aspects of the medieval educational system. The author distinguishes some aspects of forming of choral culture as many-staged spiritual-music system. Key words: Middle Ages, education, music, church culture, art. Федорова М. В. Семиотика свадебных украшений бурят В статье рассматриваются украшения бурят как предметный код свадебного ритуала, на широком этнографическом материале анализируется синкретичная структура их семиотических функций. Свадебные украшения несли в себе продуцирующую, апотропейную символику, были связаны с представлениями о жизненной силе, являлись маркерами обретения невестой нового социально-возрастного статуса. В качестве основных источников использованы вещевые коллекции Российского этнографического музея, Музея антропологии и этнографии им. Петра Великого РАН, научные публикации. Ключевые слова: украшения, свадебный наряд, семиотический, символ. Fedorova M. V. Semiotics of Buryats'wedding jewelry The subject of the report is the jewelry as an objective code of the wedding ritual. The author analyses the syncretic structure of their semiotic functions on a broad ethnographic material. The wedding jewelry have productive, protective symbolism, were associated with notions of vitality, and were the markers of a bride new-age social status. As the main sources, the author used the collections of objects of the Russian Museum of Ethnography, the Peter the Great's Museum of Anthropology and Ethnography (Kunstkamera), and scientific publications. Key words: jewelry, wedding dress, semiotic, symbol. Филиппова Ю. В. Мифологические аспекты в понятии сознания В статье рассматриваются мифологические аспекты сознания, их влияние на возникновение новой формы познания философии, онтологические предпосылки структур времени и памяти, а также сновидение как компонент мофопоэтического сознания и постепенный переход к рефлексии. Ключевые слова: сознание, миф, рефлексия, время, память, реальность, сновидение. Philippova J. V. Mythological Aspects of the Notion of Consciousness The article deals with mythological aspects of consciousness, their influence on genesis of a new form of cognition philosophy, also ontological suppositions of temporal and memorable structures, and dreaming as an element of mythopoetical consciousness and gradual conversion to reflection. Key words: consciousness, myth, reflection, time, memory reality, dream. Чистякова Э. Э. Скандинавское влияние в русской художественной культуре XIX-XX веков Переломная эпоха XIX-XX веков изменила представление о взаимодействии русского и западноевропейского искусства. Для преодоления изоляции русской культуры было необходимо познакомить русских художников и общество с состоянием искусства за рубежом. Выставки скандинавских художников, организованные в конце XIX века, открыли национально-романтическое искусство северных соседей России и дали пример вступления на общеевропейский путь развития без утраты национальных особенностей. Скандинавское влияние оставило заметный след на русской архитектуре рубежа веков, особенно в северной столице. Знакомство с достижениями скандинавского искусства расширило творческие возможности и позволило русским художникам оказаться причастными к наиболее значительным событиям художественной жизни рубежа веков. Ключевые слова: скандинавское влияние, русские художники, северный модерн, С. П. Дягилев, А. Галлен-Каллела, А. Эдельфельт, Мир искусства. Chistjakova E. E. Scandinavian Influence in the Russian Artistic Culture of XIX-XX Centuries The turning age of the XIX-XX centuries changed the idea about Russian and West European Art interaction. To bridge the Russian culture isolation it was necessary to introduce the status of the foreign culture to Russian artists and the society. The exhibitions of Scandinavian painters arranged at the end of the XIX century showed National Romanticism of Nordic neighbours to Russia and gave an example of entering European way of development with no national peculiarities losses. Scandinavian Influence had a visible affect on Russian architecture at the turn of the century especially in the North Capital of Russia. Making the acquaintance with Scandinavian Art achievements enhanced creative opportunities and made Russian artists participate in more significant artistic life events of the turn of the century. Key words: Scandinavian influence, Russian artists, Nordic Art Nouveau, Sergey P. Diaghilev, Akseli Gallen-Kallela, Albert G. Edelfelt, The Art World. Шомахмадов С. Х. Космография Южной Азии в письменных памятниках вишнуитской и буддийской традиций В статье дан сравнительный анализ вишнуитской и буддийской космологических систем. Отмечается, что радиально-кольцевая морфология земной поверхности характерна как для буддийской, так и для вишнуитской традиции. Числовая семантика материков, представленная в космографии Южной Азии, демонстрирует, что ойкумена осмыслялась как совершенная, идеологически отражающая непрерывность двух традиций. Общим для обеих традиций является признание человеческой формы рождения как единственно благой, дающей возможность достижения окончательного освобождения (мокша, нирвана). Ключевые слова: космография, буддизм, индуизм, Индия, сакральные центры Shomakhmadov S. H. The South Asia's Cosmography in the Texts of Vaishnavist and Buddhist Traditions The comparative analysis of the Vaishnavist and Buddhist cosmological systems is given in this article. It is noticed that the radially-ring morphology of a terrestrial surface is characteristic both for Buddhist, and for Vaishnavist traditions. The numerical semantics of continents presented in the Southern Asia's cosmography shows that ecumena was comprehended as the perfect, ideologically reflecting continuity of two traditions. The general for both traditions is the acceptance of the human birth form as a unique good, giving the chance for achievements of definitive clearing (moksha, nirvana). Key words: cosmography, Buddhism, Hinduism, India, sacral centers.