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VANDA ARAMAVIČIŪTĖ – Habilitated doc­tor of Social Sciences (Education), Profes­sor at the Department of Education, Vilnius University. Research interests: general edu­cology, education and spiritual develop­ment of personality, methodology of educa­tional research. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: aramaviciute@gmail.comMARTYNA BAKAITĖ – Master student in Education at Vilnius University. Research interests: adult education, digital culture, language didactics. Address: 9/1 Univer­siteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: martyna.bakaitė@gmail.comJURATE ČERNEVIČIŪTĖ – Doctor of Hu­manities (Philosophy), Professor at the Department of Creative Entrepreneurship and Communication, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. Research interests: communication, cultural and media studies, creative industries, innovations. Address: 26/1 Pylimo Str., LT-01132 Vilnius, Lithu­ania; e-mail address: jurate.cerneviciute@vgtu.ltMIGLĖ DOVYDAITIENĖ – Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Lecturer at the De­partment of General Psychology, Vilnius University. Research interests: consultancy theory and practice, family crises preven­tion, short-term therapy, conflict resolution. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: migle.dovydaitiene@fsf.vu.ltLILIJA DUOBLIENĖ – Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Professor and the Head of the Education Department, Vilnius University. Research interests: education philosophy, education policy, multicul­tural education. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: lilija.duobliene@fsf.vu.ltOLGA ILJINA – PhD student of Social Sciences (Education) at the Department of Edu­cation, Vilnius University. Research inter­ests: education sociology, social justice in education, grounded theory. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithu­ania; e-mail address: olgailjina@gmail.comŽILVINAS JANČORAS – Head of Creative Innovation Lab, Vilnius Gediminas Techni­cal University. Research interests: creative industries, innovations, innovation management, business models. Address: 5-35 Linkmenų Str., Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: zilvinas.jancoras@vgtu.ltALBINAS KALVAITIS – Doctor of Social Sciences (Sociology), Education Devel­opment Centre's methodologist. Research interests: education sociology, education management, general education. Address: 44 M. Katkaus Str., LT-09217 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: albinaskalvaitis@gmail.comRUSNĖ KREGŽDAITĖ – PhD student of So­cial Sciences (Economics); junior researcher at the Creative Innovation Lab, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. Research interests: creative industries, economics of culture, econometrical analysis. Address: 5-35 Linkmenų Str., Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: rusne.kregzdaite@vgtu.ltELVYDA MARTIŠAUSKIENĖ – Habilitated Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Professor at Department of Education, Vilnius University of Educational Sciences. Research interests: general educology, methodology of moral and spiri­tual research. Address: 39 Studentų Str., LT-08106 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: martisauskiene@gmail.comVAIDAS MORKEVIČIUS – Doctor of Social Sciences (Sociology), Researcher at the Creative Innovation Lab, Vilnius Gedi­minas Technical University. Research interests: social survey, social science methods, qualitative comparative analysis, applied statistics and data analytics. Address: 5-35 Linkmenų Str., Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: vaidas.morkevicius@vgtu.ltŽIGIMANTAS PEČIŪRA – Master student, Department of General Psychology, Vilnius University. Research interests: educational psychology, psychology of career. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lith­uania; e-mail address: zigpec@gmail.comVAIDA PLATKEVIČIŪTĖ – Student, De­partment of General psychology, Vilnius University. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania.BIRUTĖ POCIŪTĖ – Doctor of Social Sciences (Psychology), Associate Professor at the Department of General Psychology, Vilnius University. Research interests: educational psychology, psychology of career choice, learning. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: birute.pociute@fsf.vu.ltGIEDRĖ JUDITA RASTAUSKIENĖ – Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Lecturer at Department of Applied Biology and Reha­bilitation, Lithuanian Sports University. Re­search interests: socioeducational research analysis. Address: 6 Sporto Str., LT-44221 Kaunas, Lithuania; e-mail address:giedre.rastauskiene@gmail.comIRENA STONKUVIENĖ – Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Associate Professor at the Department of the Education Depart­ment, Vilnius University. Research inter­ests: history of education, anthropology of education, education and culture, gender and education. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: irena.stonkuviene@fsf.vu.ltROLANDAS STRAZDAS – Doctor of Social Sciences (Management), Researcher at the Institute of Open Source Research, Associate Professor at the Mechanical Engineer­ing Department, Vilnius Gediminas Tech­nical University. Research interests: inno­vation management, process improvement, collective creativity, creative industries. Address: 11 Saulėtekio Ave., LT-10223 Vil­nius, Lithuania; e-mail address: rolandas.strazdas@vgtu.ltSAULIUS ŠUKYS – Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Head of the Department of Health, Physical and Social Education, Lithuanian Sports University. Research in­terests: peculiarities of prosocial children behavior in physical activity. Address: 6 Sporto Str., LT-44221 Kaunas, Lithuania; e-mail address: saulius.sukys@lsu.ltMARIA TILK – Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Associate Professor at the De­partment of Educational Sciences, Tallinn University. Research interests: history of education, narrative. Address: Uus-Sadama 5, Tallinn 10120, Estonia; e-mail address: maria.tilk@tlu.eeSVETLANA VASILIONOK – Master stu­dent in Education at Vilnius University. Research interests: Lithuanian language teaching in minority schools, Eastern phi­losophy, the visual arts in teaching and learning. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: svetlana.vasilionok@gmail.comEDITA VAINIENĖ – PhD student of Social Sciences (Education) of Sports and Move­ment Science Center, Lithuanian Sports University. Research interests: physical culture, identity of specialists of physical education and sports. Address: Sporto Str. 6, LT–44221 Kaunas, Lithuania; e-mail address: editavaina@gmail.comVITA VENSLOVAITĖ – Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Lecturer at the De­partment of Education, Vilnius University. Research interests: philosophy of educa­tion, musical education, phenomenology in education. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: vitavensl@gmail.comCHARL C. WOLHUTER – Professor in Comparative and International Education, North-West University. Research interests: teaching of comparative education, theory of comparative education, teacher educa­tion, higher education in Africa. Address: North-West University Private Bag X 6001, Potchefstroom Campus, South Africa; e-mail address: Charl.Wolhuter@nwu.ac.zaRIMANTAS ŽELVYS – Habilitated Doctor of Social Sciences (Education), Professor at the Department of Education, Vilnius University. Research interests: education policy, education management, higher education. Address: 9/1 Universiteto Str., LT-01513 Vilnius, Lithuania; e-mail address: rimantas.zelvys@leu.lt ; VANDA ARAMAVIČIŪTĖ – socialinių moks­lų (edukologijos) habilituota daktarė, Vil­niaus universiteto Edukologijos katedros profesorė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: bendroji edukologija, ugdymas ir asmenybės dvasinis brendimas, ugdymo tyrimų me­todologija. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: aramaviciu­te@gmail.comMARTYNA BAKAITĖ – Vilniaus universiteto Edukologijos katedros magistrantė. Moks­linių interesų sritys: suaugusiųjų švietimas, skaitmeninė kultūra, kalbų didaktika. Adre­sas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: martyna.bakaitė@gmail.comMIGLĖ DOVYDAITIENĖ – socialinių moks­lų (psichologijos) daktarė, Vilniaus univer­siteto Bendrosios psichologijos katedros lektorė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: konsulta­vimo teorija ir praktika, šeimos krizių pre­vencija, trumpalaikė terapija, streso įveika, konfliktų sprendimas. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: migle.dovydaitiene@fsf.vu.ltLILIJA DUOBLIENĖ – socialinių mokslų (edukologijos) daktarė, Vilniaus universiteto Edukologijos katedros profesorė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: ugdymo filosofija, švietimo politika, tarpkultūrinis ugdymas, medijų raš­tingumo ugdymas. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: lilija.duo­blienė@fsf.vu.ltJŪRATĖ ČERNEVIČIŪTĖ – humanitarinių mokslų (filosofijos) daktarė, Vilniaus Ge­dimino technikos universiteto Kūrybos verslo ir komunikacijos katedros profeso­rė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: komunikaci­ja, kultūros ir medijų studijos, kūrybinės industrijos, inovacijos. Adresas: Pylimo g. 26/1, LT-01132 Vilnius. El. paštas: jurate.cerneviciute@vgtu.ltOLGA ILJINA – Vilniaus universiteto Edu­kologijos katedros doktorantė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: švietimo sociologija, socia­linis teisingumas ugdant, grindžiamoji teo­rija. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: olgailjina@gmail.comŽILVINAS JANČORAS – Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universiteto Kūrybinių inovacijų laboratorijos vedėjas. Mokslinių interesų sri­tys: kūrybinės industrijos, inovacijos, inova­cijų vadyba, verslo modeliai. Adresas: Linkmenų g. 5-35, Vilnius. El. paštas: zilvinas.jancoras@vgtu.ltALBINAS KALVAITIS – socialinių mokslų (sociologija) daktaras, Ugdymo plėtotės centro metodininkas. Mokslinių interesų sritys: švietimo sociologija, švietimo vady­ba, bendrasis ugdymas. Adresas: M. Kat­kaus g. 44, LT-09217 Vilnius. El. paštas: albinaskalvaitis@gmail.comRUSNĖ KREGŽDAITĖ – socialinių mokslų (ekonomikos) doktorantė, Vilniaus Ge­dimino technikos universiteto Kūrybinių inovacijų laboratorijos jaunesnioji mokslo darbuotoja. Mokslinių interesų sritys: kū­rybinės industrijos, kultūros ekonomika, ekonometrinė analizė. Adresas: Linkmenų g. 5-35, Vilnius. El. paštas: rusne.kregzdai­te@vgtu.ltELVYDA MARTIŠAUSKIENĖ – socialinių mokslų (edukologijos) habilituota daktarė, Lietuvos edukologijos universiteto Eduko­logijos katedros profesorė. Mokslinių in­teresų sritys: bendroji edukologija, dorinis ugdymas, dvasingumo tyrimų metodologi­ja. Adresas: Studentų g. 39, LT-08106 Vil­nius. El. paštas: martisauskiene@gmail.comVAIDAS MORKEVIČIUS – socialinių mokslų (sociologijos) daktaras, Vilniaus Gedimino technikos universiteto Kūrybinių inovacijų laboratorijos mokslo darbuotojas. Moks­linių interesų sritys: socialinės apklausos, socialinių tyrimų metodai, kokybinė lygi­namoji analizė, taikomoji statistika ir duomenų analizė. Adresas: Linkmenų g. 5-35, Vilnius. El. paštas: vaidas.morkevicius@vgtu.ltBIRUTĖ POCIŪTĖ – socialinių mokslų (psi­chologijos) daktarė, Vilniaus universiteto Bendrosios psichologijos katedros docentė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: pedagoginė psi­chologija, karjeros psichologija, mokyma­sis. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: birute.pociute@fsf.vu.ltŽIGIMANTAS PEČIŪRA – Vilniaus univer­siteto Bendrosios psichologijos katedros magistrantas. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas zigpec@gmail.comVAIDA PLATKEVIČIŪTĖ – Vilniaus univer­siteto Bendrosios psichologijos katedros studentė. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius.GIEDRĖ JUDITA RASTAUSKIENĖ – sociali­nių mokslų (edukologija) daktarė, Lietuvos sporto universiteto Taikomosios biologijos ir reabilitacijos katedros lektorė. Moksli­nių interesų sritys: socioedukacinių tyrimų analizė. Adresas: Sporto g. 6, LT-44221 Kaunas. El. paštas: giedre.rastauskiene@gmail.comIRENA STONKUVIENĖ – socialinių mokslų (edukologijos) daktarė, Vilniaus universi­teto Edukologijos katedros docentė. Moks­linių interesų sritys: pedagogikos istorija, ugdymo antropologija, ugdymas ir kultūra, ugdymas ir lytis. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: irena.stonkuvienė@fsf.vu.ltROLANDAS STRAZDAS – socialinių mokslų (vadyba) daktaras, Vilniaus Gedimino tech­nikos universiteto Atvirojo kodo instituto mokslo darbuotojas, Mechanikos inžineri­jos katedros docentas. Mokslinių interesų sritys: inovacijų valdymas, procesų tobu­linimas, kolektyvinis kūrybiškumas, kūry­binės industrijos. Adresas: Saulėtekio al. 11, LT-10223 Vilnius. El. paštas: rolandas.strazdas@vgtu.ltSAULIUS ŠUKYS – socialinių mokslų (edu­kologijos) daktaras, Lietuvos sporto uni­versiteto Sveikatos, fizinio ir socialinio ug­dymo katedros vedėjas. Mokslinių interesų sritys: vaikų prosocialaus elgesio sportinėje veikloje ypatumai. Adresas: Sporto g. 6, LT-44221 Kaunas. El. paštas: saulius.su­kys@lsu.ltMARIA TILK – socialinių mokslų (edukologi­jos) daktarė, Talino universiteto Edukolo­gijos katedros docentė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: pedagogikos istorija, naratyvas. Adresas: Uus-Sadama 5, Tallinn 10120, Estija. El. paštas: maria.tilk@tlu.eeEDITA VAINIENĖ – Lietuvos sporto univer­siteto Sporto ir judesių mokslo centro dok­torantė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: universi­tetinės kūno kultūros studijos, disciplininis identitetas. Adresas: Sporto g. 6, LT-44221 Kaunas. El. paštas: editavaina@gmail.comSVETLANA VASILIONOK – Vilniaus univer­siteto Edukologijos katedros magistrantė. Mokslinių interesų sritys: lietuvių kalbos mokymas tautinių mažumų mokyklose, Rytų filosofija, vizualinių menų taikymas mokymo(si) metu. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: svetlana.vasilionok@gmail.comVITA VENSLOVAITĖ – socialinių mokslų (edukologijos) daktarė, Vilniaus universi­teto Edukologijos katedros lektorė. Moks­linių interesų sritys: ugdymo filosofija, mu­zikinis ugdymas, fenomenologija ugdyme. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vil­nius. El. paštas: vitavensl@gmail.comCHARL C. WOLHUTER – socialinių moks­lų (edukologijos) daktaras lyginamosios edukologijos ir tarptautinio švietimo pro­fesorius. Mokslinių interesų sritys: lygina­mosios edukologijos mokymas, lyginamo­sios edukologijos teorija, mokytojų rengi­mas, aukštasis mokslas Afrikoje. Adresas: North-West University, Private Bag X 6001, Potchefstroom Campus, South Afri­ca. El. paštas: Charl.Wolhuter@nwu.ac.zaRIMANTAS ŽELVYS – socialinių mokslų (edukologijos) habilituotas daktaras, Vil­niaus universiteto Edukologijos katedros profesorius. Mokslinių interesų sritys: švietimo politika, švietimo vadyba, aukšta­sis mokslas. Adresas: Universiteto g. 9/1, LT-01513 Vilnius. El. paštas: rimantas.zel­vys@leu.lt

La presente Tesis Doctoral viene titulada como "Presencia de las Redes Sociales y Medios de Comunicación: representación y participación periodística en el nuevo contexto social". Se hace preciso advertir que esta investigación que elaboro pretende cumplir los requisitos necesarios para la obtención del título de Doctor bajo la modalidad de "Tesis por compendio de publicaciones" según viene determinado por el artículo 9 de la Normativa Reguladora del Régimen de Tesis Doctoral (acuerdo 9.1/CG 19-4-12) de la Universidad de Sevilla, publicada en el Boletín Oficial de la Universidad de Sevilla (BOUS) número 3, de 23 de mayo de 2012, y que se desarrolla en el Real Decreto 99/2011 de 28 de enero, por el que se regulan las enseñanzas oficiales de doctorado (BOE de 10 de febrero), donde sus artículos del 11 al 15 establecen el régimen relativo a la admisión a un programa de doctorado, realización, evaluación y defensa de la Tesis Doctoral. Según lo dispuesto por la Disposición Transitoria Primera del RD 99/2011 que habilita la aplicación de la nueva regulación del régimen de Tesis a los estudiantes de anteriores ordenaciones en lo relativo a tribunal, defensa y evaluación de la Tesis Doctoral, la Normativa Reguladora del Régimen de Tesis Doctoral (acuerdo 9.1/CG 19-4-12) de la Universidad de Sevilla indica en su artículo 1 que "queda por tanto así derogada la Normativa de régimen de tesis adoptada por Acuerdo 6.1/C.G. 30-9-08 que es sustituida por la presente Normativa". Esta advertencia es imprescindible para entender la estructura y forma de la materialización escrita de un largo proceso investigador. Es preciso apuntar que, según la Normativa antes indicada, se pueden presentar para su evaluación como Tesis Doctoral un conjunto de trabajos publicados por la doctoranda que "deberá estar relacionado con el proyecto de tesis doctoral en programas regulados por el RD 1393/2007 o anteriores, o con el plan de investigación que conste en el documento de actividades del doctorando en programas regulados por el RD 99/2011". Además, "el conjunto de trabajos deberá estar conformado por un mínimo de dos artículos publicados o aceptados o capítulos de libro o un libro, debiendo ser el doctorando preferentemente el primer autor […]". El compendio de la presente Tesis Doctoral está compuesto por dos libros que son los siguientes: § GARCÍA ESTÉVEZ, Noelia: Redes Sociales en Internet. Implicaciones y consecuencias de las plataformas 2.0 en la sociedad. Editorial Universitas, Madrid, 2012. ISBN: 978-84-7991-359-5. D.L.: M-7755-2012. § GARCÍA ESTÉVEZ, Noelia: Realidad Periodística, contexto social y era tecnológica. Equipo de Investigación de Análisis y Técnica de la Información, Sevilla, 2012. ISBN -13: 978-84-695-6109-6. ISBN -10: 84-695-6109-X. D.L.: SE-6872-2012. Comprobamos que la Tesis Doctoral aquí presentada por compendio de publicaciones cumple los requisitos de la Normativa. Así, el título que encabeza estas páginas fue el propuesto para el Proyecto de Tesis Doctoral presentado en su día y con la posterior aprobación de la Comisión de Doctorado del Departamento de Periodismo II de la Universidad de Sevilla, en el que se circunscribe esta Tesis. Por lo tanto, observamos una evidente relación entre el tema del Proyecto de Tesis Doctoral y las publicaciones aquí presentadas: las Redes Sociales, el Periodismo y la Sociedad. Por otro lado, en cuanto a la autoría de los trabajos presentados, en ambas publicaciones la única autora es la doctoranda, Noelia García Estévez, ciñéndose así a lo indicado en la Normativa que precisa que debe ser la primera autora, y que como puede apreciarse es la única. Siguiendo las indicaciones de la citada Normativa que regula la presentación de una Tesis Doctoral por compendio, a las publicaciones ya mencionadas se incluyen estas páginas en las que figuran los siguientes apartados: A. Una introducción en la que se desarrolla la justificación de la unidad temática de la Tesis. (Véase Capítulo 1). B. Los objetivos, las hipótesis y los principales aspectos del sistema metodológico que ha regido esta investigación. (Véase Capítulo 2). C. Un resumen global de los resultados, donde se enlazan y se contrastan los principales resultados obtenidos y plasmados de forma independiente en las publicaciones presentadas. (Véase Capítulo 4). D. Una discusión de estos resultados, en la que se contrasten estos resultados con las hipótesis planteadas y se reflexione de manera crítica sobre la calidad de la validez interna y externa de la investigación. (Véase Capítulo 5). E. Las conclusiones alcanzadas tras la investigación. (Véase Capítulo 6). F. Aunque la Normativa no lo exige, hemos creído conveniente añadir los apartados de "Publicaciones y sus canalizaciones" donde desarrollamos la optabilidad de editar nuestras investigaciones y las tangibilidades al efectuar las ediciones (véase Capítulo 3) y de "Bibliografía utilizada" en el cual hemos recopilado y clasificado todas las fuentes bibliográficas y hemerográficas que han sido utilizadas a lo largo de las dos publicaciones presentadas y de las siguientes páginas. (Véase Capítulo 7). La presente Tesis Doctoral, titulada "Presencia de las Redes Sociales y Medios de Comunicación: representación y participación periodística en el nuevo contexto social", tiene como objeto de estudio el análisis de la actividad periodística en el nuevo contexto social donde las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación han adquirido un papel crucial. Centraremos nuestra investigación en el ámbito de las Redes Sociales en Internet, pues se han erigido como un elemento fundamental cuyas implicaciones se extienden de manera transversal en todos los aspectos de la sociedad. Por lo tanto, nos enfrentamos al estudio del Periodismo en un momento en el que los avances tecnológicos y la comunicación basada en el paradigma 2.0 influyen, por un lado, en el propio quehacer periodístico, desde el punto de vista del profesional de la información, y, por otro, afecta de manera importante en el entorno social en el que encontramos un ciudadano, receptor de la información periodística, con nuevos hábitos y costumbres y con nuevas demandas y exigencias. Dice Klaus Krippendorff que "toda investigación científica está motivada por el deseo de conocer o entender mejor una porción del mundo real". Esa porción del mundo real a la que se refiere el citado autor y que de forma genérica se conoce como acotación del objeto de estudio es en esta investigación la interrelación entre las Redes Sociales, el Periodismo y la Sociedad. Más concretamente, el papel del Periodismo en un nuevo contexto social en el que impera una comunicación 2.0. Desde finales del pasado siglo y muy especialmente con el inicio del siglo XXI se inauguró una nueva etapa para la humanidad, marcada en gran medida por el imparable desarrollo de las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación. Es obvio que hoy día el ciudadano posee una gran capacidad para comunicarse y mantener relaciones profesionales y/o afectivas con otras personas situadas en cualquier parte del globo terráqueo, superando barreras no sólo geográficas, sino también sociales, culturales, políticas, etc. Además, la popularización y el abaratamiento paulatino de los dispositivos y terminales desde los que se pueden acceder a estas redes ha impulsado la generación de conexiones en el ciberespacio. Como dice Cebrián "la web 2.0 es una plataforma de redes sociales de información en sentido amplio y general concerniente a muchos campos del conocimiento y de la vida real, en sentido periodístico o de información de actualidad, veraz y de interés general de la sociedad, en sentido interpersonal, o de relaciones entre dos o más personas y grupos, y en sentido personal o de comunicación de cada individuo con su entorno inmediato a través de sus sistemas captores del exterior y de sus reacciones ante ellos". Con todo ello, nosotros abordamos una investigación de un fenómeno comunicacional que ha supuesto un profundo cambio en la estructura de los Medios de Comunicación y en los modos en que la sociedad recibe la información. El impacto de la web 2.0 ha supuesto una mutación del receptor pasivo de la comunicación a un creador y gestor de contenidos. Ha supuesto, además, la ruptura del paradigma tradicional de la comunicación consistente en la tríada emisor-canal-receptor, donde el mensaje ya no es unidireccional, sino que fluye de manera transversal hasta convertirse en una gran conversación global y multidireccional gracias a la accesibilidad, instantaneidad y viralidad de la red. La planificación y el trazado del proyecto de la investigación por realizar supusieron el inicio de esta investigación, pues se trata de una etapa crucial para el éxito del proceso investigador ya que sin una buena planificación difícilmente se podrán establecer unos objetivos concretos y los mecanismos necesarios para conseguiros. Esta etapa se divide en los siguientes pasos: Selección del tema: consiste en "la definición y posterior delimitación del campo de conocimientos sobre el que piensa trabajar". Identificación de un problema: se trata de detectar algún aspecto no conocido dentro de un área temática y que amerite de una indagación para su solución, también enunciado. Formulación del anteproyecto: se refiere a la realización de "un primer borrador o papel de trabajo que ha de contener las ideas básicas sobre la investigación que nos proponemos llevar a cabo". La elección del tema es la primera gran encrucijada a la que se enfrenta todo investigador en su andadura hacia la obtención del Título de Doctor. No obstante, antes del tema está el problema, pues tal y como apunta Jorge Felibertt "el problema es el punto de partida de toda investigación. Se origina cuando el investigador observa dudas sobre una realidad, o hecho o teorías, aparece a raíz de alguna dificultad, nace de una necesidad, con dificultades sin resolver. Una vez que se viene una idea sin resolver, se procede a enmarcar dicho problema en forma de un título de investigación, luego se plantea de forma específica el problema que se acaba de originar el cual estará contenido en el tema seleccionado". Ahora bien, está claro que el problema que el investigador detecte y que le incite a embarcarse en una investigación profunda como es una Tesis Doctoral estará enmarcado en las áreas de conocimiento y de interés del propio investigador. Esto es, una persona puede hallar diversos problemas que se presten a ser investigados, pero la elección del problema a investigar vendrá determinado en gran medida por las características y la propia naturaleza del investigador. Así, el tema, y su pertinente problema, es el primer interrogante que, una vez resuelto, iniciará un largo camino hasta su materialización en una Tesis Doctoral. No siempre es posible formular el problema de forma clara, precisa y manipulable. Éste es propio de la naturaleza misa de la investigación científica, de sus dificultades y complejidades. La capacidad de plantear problemas, dice Cohen y Nagel, "es una señal de posesión del genio científico" y es que los problemas no surgen de la nada, sino que son los investigadores con sus conocimientos y bases teóricas quienes los formulan. En nuestro caso, la elección del tema vino determinada, en primer lugar, por corresponderse a las predilecciones de la doctoranda y estar en sintonía con el Equipo de Investigación de Análisis y Técnica de la Información de la Universidad de Sevilla, al que pertenece la doctoranda desde 2009. Además, y siguiendo las recomendaciones de Umberto Eco, las fuentes a las que se debía recurrir eran, en general, accesibles y manejables. Por su parte, los directores de la Tesis y la propia investigadora han trabajado en la elaboración de un cuadro metodológico apto y efectivo para esta investigación y para la obtención de unos resultados. Recordemos que la realización de una Tesis Doctoral "constituye un trabajo original de investigación con el cual el aspirante ha de demostrar que es un estudioso capaz de hacer avanzar la disciplina a la que se dedica". Esa es la verdadera vocación de este trabajo, hacer avanzar las Ciencias del Periodismo e incluir en ellas investigaciones y teorías válidas sobre fenómenos actuales que repercuten en la sociedad en general y en el Periodismo en particular y que nos obligan a un replanteamiento constante de las bases teóricas de la ciencia. Las Redes Sociales en Internet han calado en la sociedad como en su día lo hiciera la televisión, el teléfono móvil o el propio Internet. Como ya lo dijera el sociólogo Marshall McLuhan en la década de los 60 del pasado siglo, la tecnología constituye una prolongación de nuestro cuerpo. Internet, que más que una tecnología es un efecto de la misma, ha creado el marco de la nueva sociedad, un entorno vital a medio camino entre lo virtual y lo real. El surgimiento de la web 2.0 o web social ha supuesto un antes y un después para el conjunto de la sociedad en, prácticamente, todas las esferas de la vida. Desde el plano más personal e íntimo, hasta el profesional o académico. Todo se ha visto impregnado de la presencia de Blogs, Wikis o Redes Sociales (como Facebook, Twitter…). La tecnología es omnipresente hoy día y media gran parte de la comunicación social. Este nuevo paradigma en el proceso de la comunicación subyace también en el entorno del Periodismo y los Medios de Comunicación. Por lo tanto, en esta investigación nos aproximamos al papel del Periodismo como un ente que ha de evolucionar y adaptarse al propio desarrollo tecnológico, por un lado, y a la nueva sociedad receptora del discurso mediático, por otro. Desde la ciencia poco se ha abordado aún un estudio profundo y amplio sobre el surgimiento, desarrollo y situación actual de las plataformas sociales y sus implicaciones en el Periodismo. Estamos convencidos de que, como bien apuntaba Castells, "la teoría y la investigación […] deben considerarse medios para comprender nuestro mundo y deben juzgarse por su precisión, rigor y pertinencia". De aquí deriva el interés de esta investigación la cual pretende analizar cómo funciona la actividad periodística en el marco de la sociedad actual desde la inclusión de la web 2.0 y las Redes Sociales. Aspirando a ofrecer un conocimiento válido y útil para hacer frente a las nuevas exigencias del profesional de la información de nuestro mundo. Asistimos a cambios profundos, más grandes de los que vivieron cualquiera de nuestros antepasados. Se trata, según palabras de Vázquez Medel, de un proceso de "trashumanización, en el que se están transformando radicalmente las claves que rigen la economía y el mundo empresarial, la política y las organizaciones sociales, las relaciones interculturales y el mundo del derecho, la evolución de la ciencia y la tecnología, y hasta la experiencia individual del mundo, de la vivencia de la espacialidad, la temporalidad, la corporeidad, la relacionalidad". En esta encrucijada ya no sirven las respuestas que hasta ahora eran válidas, ya se quedan obsoletas las fórmulas que parecían efectivas. Ahora, advierte Vázquez Medel, "se hace imprescindible buscar activa y creativamente nuevas soluciones". En última instancia, ése es precisamente nuestro objetivo: buscar respuestas a las nuevas preguntas surgidas en el ámbito del Periodismo tras una revolución tecnológica y cibernética masiva, en la que los usuarios ya no sólo consumen sino que también producen. Un espacio heterogéneo en cuanto a las características de sus miembros así como a la naturaleza de las relaciones que entre ellos se establecen. 1.3. Antecedentes e interés actual de la investigación. El Análisis de Redes Sociales (en adelante, ARS) y la Teoría de Redes se han configurado como una metodología clave en las modernas Ciencias Sociales, entre las que se incluyen la Sociología, la Antropología, la Psicología Social, la Economía, la Geografía, las Ciencias Políticas, la Cienciometría, los estudios de Comunicación, estudios Organizacionales y la Sociolingüística. También ha ganado un apoyo significativo en la Física y la Biología entre otras. En el ámbito de las Ciencias Sociales, una Red Social es una estructura, un grupo de personas relacionadas entre sí que puede representarse analíticamente en forma de uno o varios grafos, en los cuales los nodos representan a los agentes o individuos -también llamados actores- y los arcos -o lazos- representan las relaciones entre ellos. El ARS surge en la década de 1950 con una ingente cantidad de estudios desde diferentes disciplinas: en la sociometría Jacobo Moreno desarrolla la teoría matemática de los grafos; en la psicología social encontramos las teorías del equilibrio estructural de Harary y Cartwright; en la antropología destacan John Barnes, J. Clyde Mitchell y, especialmente, Elizabeth Bott; desde la sociología también se ha entendido el ARS como una variedad de la teoría general de la Sociología estructural con autores como Radcliffe-Brown y, sobre todo, Simmel. En el ámbito español suele considerarse pionero en la introducción del ARS el artículo "El concepto de red social" de Félix Requena Santos en la Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas (REIS). También ha sido fructífero el trabajo de Josep A. Rodríguez desde el Departamento de Sociología y Análisis de las Organizaciones de la Universidad de Barcelona y el Grupo de Análisis de Redes (NAGAR) y el de José Luis Molina desde el Departamento de Antropología Social y Cultural de la Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona y su grupo de investigación Egoredes. Sin embargo, hemos de advertir que nuestro objeto de estudio no es el concepto tradicional y sociológico de Red Social, sino que nosotros indagamos sobre las características, efectos, desarrollo y evolución de las Redes Sociales en Internet. En esta parcela, son mucho menos numerosos los estudios e investigaciones que actualmente encontramos, especialmente en el campo de las Ciencias del Periodismo. Si bien es cierto que desde el principio Internet, las Redes Sociales y el desarrollo tecnológico han despertado el interés de la Academia, la mayoría de los estudios que encontramos carecen aún de la profundidad y la amplitud necesarias. En efecto, nos hallamos ante un fenómeno coetáneo y de imparable evolución, lo cual no nos permite gozar de perspectiva histórica para su análisis. Sin embargo, es imprescindible la realización de investigaciones exploratorias que empiecen a teorizar y argumentar sobre los procesos de los que son testigos. En el ámbito internacional hallamos las aportaciones de autores como el propio Stanley Milgram y su teoría del mundo pequeño; Dan Gillmor y sus aportaciones sobre el Periodismo Ciudadano; Davenport y Prusak y sus estudios sobre la gestión del conocimiento; Fowler y Christakis y sus estudios sobre el poder las Redes Sociales; Godins y su concepto de ideavirus; Jeff Jarvis y el marketing de código abierto; Palfrey y Gassser y su descripción del nativo digital; Rheingol y sus observaciones sobre las comunidades virtuales y las multitudes inteligentes; Lévy y su idea de inteligencia colectiva; Prensky y su teoría de la inmigración digital… Dentro del habla castellana o española también encontramos una serie de autores que se han convertido en referencia dentro de la temática de Redes Sociales en Internet y sus diversas implicaciones sociales y profesionales. No podemos dejar de citar el trabajo y las contribuciones de autores como Manuel Castells y su teoría sobre la Sociedad de la Información y la Sociedad en Red; Enrique Dans y sus constantes reflexiones sobre tecnología y evolución; José Luis Orihuela y sus indagaciones en torno a la Cibercultura, Periodismo y Comunicación digital; Ugarte y su concepto de ciberturba en torno al papel de las Redes Sociales en la movilización social; Alfons Cornellá y su indagación sobre la gestión del conocimiento en red; Juan Varela, José Manuel Gómez y Méndez y Sandra Méndez Muros y su visión del Periodismo Ciudadano; Juan Freire; Mariano Cebrián; Jesús Miguel Flores Vivar; María Ángeles Cabrera González; Antonio Fumero; Adolfo Plasencia; Javier Celaya; Ramón Salaverría; Luis Rull… Diversos investigadores han optado también por esta temática en su andadura hacia la consecución del título de Doctor. Aparte de nuestro caso y de la presente Tesis Doctoral, debemos señalar la investigación llevada a cabo por Sonia Ruiz Blanco sobre la evolución del blog y el papel del receptor en generador y emisor de contenidos y la de César Viana Teixeira en torno a una concepción de las Redes Sociales como modelos de agencias ciudadanas de Comunicación. Desde el ámbito de la Comunicación también encontramos investigaciones de Tesis Doctoral que indagan acerca de los aspectos publicitarios y de marketing de estas herramientas, tal y como la de Fanny Yolanda Paladines Galarza, la de Pedro Álvaro Pereira Correia o la de Virginia Piazzo. Desde la organización y la gestión de empresas encontramos las Tesis Doctorales de Mª. del Carmen Alarcón del Amo o la de Silvia Rodríguez Donaire. Destacamos también las investigaciones de Pedro Román Graván, de Marco Vinicio Ferruzca Navarro o de Paloma López Sánchez, todas ellas insertadas en el campo educativo. Desde otras parcelas como las Matemáticas o la propia Informática también se han realizado interesantes trabajos de Tesis Doctorales, si bien las perspectivas aplicadas en estas investigaciones se alejan considerablemente de nuestra acotación del objeto de estudio, por lo que tienen menos pertinencia en nuestra investigación. Consideramos oportuna la realización de una investigación con rigor científico que sea capaz de analizar el papel de los Medios de Comunicación y de la propia profesión ante una evolución tecnológica evidente que ha conllevado nuevas fórmulas de comunicación social y ante una sociedad interconectada con nuevos hábitos y costumbres pero también con nuevas demandas y exigencias. Los orígenes de Internet se remontan a los años de la Guerra Fría y nace como un proyecto de investigación en redes de conmutación de paquetes, dentro del ámbito militar. A finales de los años sesenta el Departamento de Defensa Americano (DoD) llegó a la conclusión de que su sistema de comunicaciones basado en la comunicación telefónica (Red Telefónica Commutada, RTC) era demasiado vulnerable, puesto que establecía enlaces únicos y limitados entre importantes nodos o centrales, con el consiguiente riesgo de quedar aislado parte del país en caso de un ataque militar sobre esas arterias de comunicación. Como alternativa, el citado Departamento de Defensa, a través de su Agencia de Proyectos de Investigación Avanzados (Advanced Research Projects Agency, ARPA) decidió estimular las redes de ordenadores hasta llegar a una red experimental de cuatro nodos, que arrancó en diciembre de 1969, se denominó ARPAnet. La idea central de esta red era conseguir que la información llegara a su destino aunque parte de la red estuviera destruida. De esta manera nacen los cimientos de Internet. Hoy, su gran popularización y asimilación por parte de la ciudadanía nos lleva a reflexionar sobre la evolución de una herramienta que nació con fines militares y que en la actualidad tiene una clara orientación social. Como expresa Millán, Internet es el fruto caliente de la Guerra Fría pues "aquel producto de la guerra fría se ha convertido (valga el juego de palabras) en el medio más caliente de la actualidad". Al hablar de Internet en España hemos de tener en cuenta que su origen, evolución y situación actual tienen unas características definitorias concretas. Si bien es cierto que los inicios fueron más tardíos y lentos que en otras áreas geográficas, hemos de reconocer que en la actualidad existe un abultado número de usuarios con una gran actividad en los contextos digitales. Desde la aparición de Internet, el crecimiento de número de usuarios ha ido a un ritmo exponencial, alcanzando los 2.400 millones de usuarios en todo el mundo en 2012, según la empresa de servicios online Pingdom. En España, un total de 25 millones de personas se conectaron a Internet en diciembre de 2013, lo que supone un 9,5% más que en el mismo mes de 2011, según el informe elaborado por la consultora Barlovento con datos de la empresa de medición comScore. En octubre de 2012, Facebook llegó a los 1.000 millones de usuarios, con más de 600 millones de usuarios móviles. En Twitter existen ya más de 140 millones de usuarios activos, enviándose más de 340 de millones de tweets al día. Más de mil millones de usuarios únicos visitan YouTube cada mes, reproduciéndose más de 4.000 millones de horas de vídeo al mes. Cada vez más gente se conecta y por más tiempo. En 2012 ese tiempo aumentó un 21%, con respecto a 2011. Los usuarios invierten más tiempo en las Redes Sociales que en otros sitios de Internet. En EE.UU., por ejemplo, el 17% del tiempo en Internet están en la Red Social Facebook. En cuanto al tiempo dedicado por persona a las Redes Sociales: por género, son las mujeres con 8:37 horas al mes a través del ordenador y 9:43 horas a través de dispositivo móvil. En cuanto a franja de edad y género, quienes más tiempo pasan son los hombres de entre 18 a 24 años y las mujeres de entre 25 a 34 años que están 11 horas al mes. Sociales han irrumpido en nuestra sociedad y en nuestras formas de comunicación transformando el panorama actual. Como ya hemos dicho, el paradigma comunicacional ha variado, se ha visto alterado por estas plataformas 2.0 generando nuevas maneras de informar y ser informados. Por lo tanto, la principal innovación en esta investigación es que en ella se entremezclan tres elementos que en la práctica están inevitablemente vinculados: las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación en general y las Redes Sociales en particular; la sociedad interconectada y el ciudadano 2.0 "prosumidor"; y el Periodismo, los Medios de Comunicación y el periodista. La actual sociedad "viene marcada por la aparición de nuevos sectores laborales, la complejidad de los procesos y los productos alcanzados, la inmediatez, el progreso y la búsqueda constante de la eficacia, la globalización de los medios de comunicación, el pluralismo ideológico y la multifocalidad de la comunidad. Pero de todos estos hechos, sobresale el hecho de que las nuevas tecnologías giran en torno a todos los procesos de la información y de la comunicación". La realización de esta Tesis Doctoral se justifica por la necesidad de estudiar las características comunicacionales surgidas tras el fenómeno 2.0 y sus repercusiones en el ejercicio, estructura y recepción del Periodismo. Se ha indagado esta temática en primer lugar desde un punto de vista de la teoría, creando un importante corpus teórico sobre nuestro objeto de estudio. Además, se ha realizado un estudio de campo analizando aspectos concretos de nuestro objeto de estudio e intentando vislumbrar algunas dinámicas y tendencias en el Periodismo y la sociedad actual. Por lo tanto, se trata de una justificación doble: la primera consiste en hacer una aportación teórica, lo más completa posible, sobre las características de las Redes Sociales en Internet y el Periodismo y la sociedad bajo el paraguas de la comunicación 2.0; y la segunda es ofrecer un estudio detallado sobre las repercusiones y transformaciones reales que se están dando en el Periodismo y en el contexto social donde éste tiene lugar.

Ein Anspruch von Lernwerkstätten ist es, an der Entwicklung der jeweiligen Institution mitzuwirken. Der Band zeigt die Bedeutung von Hochschullernwerkstätten für die Gestaltung von Hochschullandschaft(en) und fokussiert fünf Themenbereiche: Welche historischen Entwicklungen lassen sich feststellen? Wodurch werden die Selbstverständnisse in Hochschullernwerkstätten geprägt? Wie können Hochschulen und Universitäten von Prozessen der Inklusion / Exklusion in Hochschullernwerkstätten partizipieren? Welche spezifischen Perspektiven werden in Bezug auf Professionalisierung und Reflexion deutlich? Inwiefern können Kooperationen und kooperatives Lernen innerhalb von Hochschullernwerkstätten auf andere universitäre Bereiche übertragen werden? (DIPF/Orig.)

La construcción del futuro. Los retos de las Ciencias Sociales en México, fue el lema del Cuarto Congreso Nacional de Ciencias Sociales celebrado en la ciudad de San Cristóbal de Las Casas del 24 al 28 de marzo del 2014 bajo la convocatoria del Consejo Mexicano de Ciencias Sociales (COMECSO) y con una gran acogida de académicos, investigadores, funcionarios y estudiantes de todo el país. Esta publicación es un producto de dicho evento académico y constituye un esfuerzo por responder a sus objetivos respecto a la socialización de los resultados de las ciencias sociales. ; Educación para la sustentabilidad: un desafío para las facultades y escuelas de negocios en México, de Gabriela Monforte García, Edgar González Gaudiano y Andreas M. Hartmann, 6; Los aportes de las Ciencias Sociales al programa Ingeniería en Desarrollo Agroforestal de Chapingo, de Mauricio Macossay Vallado , José Antonio Ávila Dorantes e Hipólito Mendoza Castillo, 21; La reforma curricular de la Universidad Autónoma de Tlaxcala: cambios, presiones, influencias y respuesta local, de Blanca Margarita Andrea Padilla Mendoza y Moisés Mecalco López, 32; Innovación curricular desde la formación de competencias profesionales en un contexto intercultural: caso de la Universidad Intercultural de Chiapas, de José Bastiani Gómez, María Jane Rivas Damián y José Alfredo López Jiménez, 42; Reforma educativa: la empresarización de la sociedad como biopolítica, de Raúl Enrique Anzaldúa Arce, 60; Virtualización y privatización educativa: una estrategia para la desaparición de la escuela, de Miguel Ángel Escalante Cantú y Etel Garrido Cruz, 70; México en la sociedad del conocimiento. Políticas educativas y aplicación de Tecnologías de información y comunicación que contribuyen a la innovación científico-educativa, de Emmanuel Álvarez Hernández, 79; Similitudes y diferencias en los procesos de socialización juvenil a través de las redes virtuales y presenciales, de Iván Alonso Díaz Mora y José Alberto Flores Solano, 92; Una exploración al significado social del like y su papel en las relaciones interpersonales de los jóvenes colimenses, de Rafael Alejandro Márquez Munguía y Aideé Consuelo Arellano Ceballos, 106; TICs, educación y jóvenes de secundaria. Un estudio sobre sociabilidad y la construcción de la identidad de las relaciones interactivas en jóvenes de secundaria pública mexicana. Caso Hermosillo, Sonora, de Carlos René Contreras Cázarez y Gustavo Adolfo León Duarte, 117; El estatus de la profesión médica: perspectivas sociológicas, de María del Pilar González Amarante, 131; La educación en México en tiempos del neoliberalismo: retos y reflexiones frente a la privatización y el desempleo, de Vidal Antonio Sánchez Blancas, Paul Iván González Loranca y Miguel Ángel Flores Peralta, 142; Comunidad profesional de aprendizaje como estrategia de formación docente, de Norma Liliana Galván Meza, 153; Transformaciones socioculturales en la educación media superior en México y nuevas expresiones de la desigualdad escolar, de Jesús Aguilar Nery, 165; Socialización política, manipulación y pérdida de identidad cultural. Realidad del sistema de educación básica en México, de Monserrat Barrón, 178; Interculturalidad, educación superior y exclusión social de grupos vulnerables en México, de Liberio Victorino Ramírez y Rocío Ángeles Atríano Mendieta, 182; Educación en contextos de encierro. Análisis de las prácticas educativas del centro Casa de Medio Camino, de María Eugenia Bové Gimenez, María Belén Itza Griego, Leticia Lueiro Caredio y Cecilia Morel Batista, 197; Proyecto desde el enfoque sur para la conformación de un Observatorio Político Cubano en Internet (OPCI), de Ángel Rodríguez Soler y Eddy Mac Donal Torres, 208; El buen maestro, imaginario que articula identidades. El caso de los docentes de telesecundaria que laboran en el municipio de Huehuetla, Hidalgo, de Linda Aglae Hinojosa Morán, 209; El prestigio docente: una búsqueda por recuperar la conciencia histórica, de Lorena Aguirre Rodríguez, 221; Extensión universitaria y alternativas pedagógicas en la Universidad Latinoamericana, de José Agustín Cano Menoni, 232; Educación tradicional indígena e identidad étnica: construyendo el stalel jkuxlejaltik en Nuevo San Juan Chamula, Las Margaritas, Chiapas, de Ramón Pérez Ruiz, 245; ¡Maestro sólo le encargo los ojos! Cultura escolar y relaciones de poder en el aula, de Brenda del Carmen Nápoles Espinoza, 255; Calidad educativa una lectura desde la pedagogía crítica, de Juan Martínez Flores, 267; Hacia la construcción de un concepto de cultura política universitaria, de Norma Ávila Báez y María Cristina Recéndez Guerrero, 278; La implementación del Programa Nacional de Inglés en Educación Básica: un estudio de caso en el noroeste, de Ruth Roux Rodríguez, 289; El proceso educativo contemporáneo en la Facultad de Derecho de la Universidad de Colima, de Angélica Yedit Prado Rebolledo, Amado Ceballos Valdovinos, Jessica Lizeth Guillén Lucatero y Maritza Galván Santiago, 297; Educar en el uso responsable de las nuevas tecnologías, de Jaime Rubio Acosta, 308; La formación del profesorado de licenciatura en el uso de multimedia en el proceso de integración Curricular de las TIC, de Alma Beatriz Grajeda Jiménez, 312; Sociedad tecnología e internet vs. desempleo violencia y desinformación, en tiempos de globalización, de Alicia Medina Carrera, 318; El blog y las interacciones virtuales en México, Centroamérica y El Caribe, de Ramón Abraham Mena Farrera, 334; Sociedad de la información: los datos y las tendencias, de Jordy Micheli Thirion, 343; Análisis crítico de la relación tendencial entre desarrollos científico, económico y humano en México, de Karla Graciela Cedano Villavicencio, Karla Fernanda Ricalde C. y Manuel Martínez Fernández, 352; Propuesta de un modelo de vinculación para el estado de Sinaloa, de Alonso Bajo, José Mateo Bastidas Morales y Arturo Retamoza López, 370; Prácticas discursivas y paradigmas en construcción. La visión de de la comunidad ingenieros sobre la innovación tecnológica y el entorno urbano en México, (1930-1946), de Francisco Javier Delgado Aguilar, 383; Factores que influyen en el número de investigadores en varios países, de José Luis Escobedo Sagaz, 398; Panorama de la física en México: visión de este campo a los 30 años de la creación del Sistema Nacional de Investigadores, de Leobardo Eduardo Contreras Gómez, Miguel Ángel Pérez Angón y Eduardo Robles Belmont, 410; La construcción epistemológica del SIDA en la ciencia, de Karla Daniela Hernández García, 421; La industria del software y las cadenas globales de valor: nuevas configuraciones de crecimiento de las regiones, de Daniel Montes Pimentel y Rolando Javier Salinas García, 433; Técnicas de aprendizaje e innovación de las empresas del sector metal-mecánico y su impacto en la integración a empresas líderes de la localidad, de Martha Estela Díaz Muro, Gil Arturo Quijano Vega, Azucena Ochoa Vega y Ana Silvia López Millán, 442M; Evolución e integración regional del sector aeroespacial en México, de Juana Hernández Chavarria, 456; Innovación como resultado del aprendizaje organizacional en la Unidad Politécnica para la Educación Virtual del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, de Carolina Morales Moreno y María del Pilar M. Pérez Hernández, 477; Democratización de la ciencia. Elementos para su caracterización, de Patricia Elena Ojeda Enciso, 489; El trabajo científico: una perspectiva psicosocial, de Javier Zavala Rayas, 504; Ciencia, tecnología e innovación para la inclusión social. Nuevos enfoques académicos y nuevos paradigmas de políticas públicas, de Rosalba Casas, Juan Manuel Corona y Roxana Rivera, 515; La construcción de la red biómica con una perspectiva social, de Carlos Alejandro Martínez Páramo, Homero Arriaga Barrera, Rafael Padilla Becerra y Beatriz Utrilla Sarmiento, 528; Análisis bibliométrico de tesis de posgrado: la producción de la Maestría en Ciencias de la Educación y del Doctorado en Psicología y Educación de la Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro, de Rocío Adela Andrade Cázares, Sara Miriam González Ramírez y María del Carmen Guadalupe Díaz Mejía, 542; Contratación de académicos, desigualdad laboral que afecta la articulación docencia-investigación, de María del Carmen Díaz Mejía , Luis Rodolfo Ibarra Rivas y Patricia Roitman Genoud, 558; La emergencia de las comunidades académicas en las universidades de nueva creación. Un enfoque morfogenético, Gustavo Rojas Bravo, 572; Desigualdades tardías: origen social y elección de destinos nacionales y extranjeros para estudiar el doctorado, de Mónica López Ramírez, 585; De la revolución verde a la evolución verde. Innovación en tecnológica en el trigo del valle del Yaqui, Sonora (1945-2013), de Álvaro Bracamonte Sierra y Iris Valenzuela Gastelum, 599; Trayectoria de vida y propensión a innovar: dos variables correlacionadas. Experiencia con productores de cacao en el Soconusco, Chiapas, de Flor Azucena Hernández Rivera, 610; Los efectos de las características de la estructura de una red sobre el desempeño en innovación de las empresas acuícolas: el caso Sonora, de Lydia Venecia Gutiérrez López y Jorge I. León Balderrama, 624; Innovación tecnológica de productores en áreas de alta marginación para incrementar la producción de cultivos básicos en Yucatán, México, de José Gabriel Berdugo Rejón, 648; Uso, adaptación y creación de recursos materiales para lograr aprendizajes significativos, de Nelly del Carmen Córdova Palomeque y María Soledad Eleanor Arellano Quintanar, 655; La implementación de las TIC en la Universidad, de Yolanda Jacqueline Ortega Ayón, 666; Proyecto formativo como estrategia de aprendizaje autónoma utilizando plataforma para el desarrollo de competencias, de Leonor Antonia Espinoza Núñez y René Rodríguez Zamora, 680; Alfabetización digital para jóvenes en rezago educativo, de Norma Isabel Medina Mayagoitia, 694; Aproximaciones a un modelo de políticas diferenciadas para el desarrollo de capacidades en CTI en los estados y regiones mexicanas, de María Antonieta Saldívar Chávez y Eliana Alejandra Arancibia Gutiérrez, 707; Trayectorias en la construcción de espacios para el desarrollo y transferencia de ciencia, tecnología e la innovación para el desarrollo económico y social: la instalación del PIIT y de la CIC en Monterrey, de Eduardo Robles Belmont y Sergio Marco Antonio Luna Ochoa, 730; El papel de los parques científicos y tecnológicos en los sistemas regionales de innovación. Análisis de algunos casos en México y Colombia, de María Elena Giraldo Palacio, 741; Equipamiento y uso de TIC en la educación básica: una brecha difícil de superar, de Daniel Eudave Muñoz, María Guadalupe Muñoz Macías y Margarita Carvajal Ciprés, 760; El desarrollo de las tareas de investigación en el contexto actual de las instituciones de educación superior, de Judith Pérez-Castro y Martha E. Campos Huerta, 772; Educar científicos, límites y potencialidades, de Luis Rodolfo Ibarra Rivas, María del Carmen Díaz Mejía y Sara Miriam González Ramírez, 785; Gestión pedagógica y políticas públicas en Brasil, de Paulo César Dias de Moura, 797; La paradoja de la integración: cadenas globales y fronteras de conocimiento, de Héctor B. Fletes Ocón, 807; La innovación en algunos sectores industriales en México: una perspectiva desde la producción de conocimiento patentado, de Rodrigo Armando Guerrero Castro, 820; Trayectorias de las académicas en la UNAM e incursión en el Sistema Nacional de Investigadores, de Alma Rosa Sánchez Olvera, 836; Educación laica, la reforma pendiente en el sistema educativo mexicano, de Sergio Pérez Sánchez, 848; La formación continua del profesor de educación primaria. Una alternativa a la política educativa, de Rubén Madrigal Segura, 857; La práctica docente del profesor en administración en el proceso de reforma universitaria, de Lizeth Gloria Xochicale Martínez, 869; El pensamiento sobre ciencia, tecnología y sociedad de Amílcar Oscar Herrera durante las décadas del ´60 y ´70 del siglo XX, de Ivian Cruz Rodríguez y Adianez Fernández Bermúdez, 884.

The project is based on the possibilities of a form of 'table-top' video sculpture, part architectural model, part video installation. Four of these 'table-top' pieces are be arranged in a darkened gallery, each simultaneously projecting perfectly synchronised, choreographed video sequences of the interior of four related architectural spaces. Each location has been shot using a repertoire of specific camera 'moves'. These movements were devised in strict relation to the particularity of the spaces and their features and are physically subject to the building itself. For this we had custom built two camera mounts - a three axis 360-degree pan and tilt head and a dolly or 'sled' to use balustrades or handrails as guides for tracking. With these devices the building were be literally used as the armature for a mobile camera. We were interested in architectural locations that are stylistically related, with strong linear organisation yet with distinctly different functions. We identified the work of Erich Mendelsohn and in particular the De La Warr Pavilion in Bexhill on Sea, the Schocken Department store building in Chemnitz, The Metal Workers' Union (IGM) Building in Berlin and the B'nai Amoona Synagogue in St. Louis, USA, (now the Centre of Contemporary Arts). Each of these 'signature' buildings offers the potential for treatment - curving stairways, projecting mezzanine floors etc. as well as being of significance beyond, in terms of architectural modernism, European design and European history. In addition to the three European buildings, the B'nai Amoona Synagogue, while not completing the story, more fully plots Mendlesohn's career; his origins in the East, his work in West Germany, his flight to England, and eventual residence in America. Obviously this is a story which is not untypical of that generation and that historical moment. Its significance is considerable in terms of the European influence on American art and design and the shift of a perceived centre, away from Europe, through the work of other celebrated German émigré architects such as Mies Van der Rohe and Walter Gropius. The video footage has been edited 'across' the three screens of each of the four table top 'models' to produce a fluid space in which the architecture of the building, and the experience of it, are re-drawn through the synchronised, continuous movement of three points of view, in, and across the four sites simultaneously. The work aims to construct an analogy between the serpentine fluidity of Mendelsohn's buildings, as canonical modernist architecture, the complex significance of the buildings and the 'motion-path' of a camera as it glides through this space. Formally, Motion Path engages with the problem of how to film a building - the relationship between cinematic poetics, that is; how to approach a building cinematically, and documentary; how to fuse the factual documentary film or the industrial film with abstract cinema? Initially we were interested in using work we had developed based on the idea of a virtual camera in a 3D computer-modelling programme. We wanted to attempt to move a camera through a real building as if it were in a digital 'fly through'. Here a number of connections can be made. Firstly; the history of architectural film and the use of film to introduce the public to modernist architecture; the idea of architectural film speaking directly to the public and generating an experience of modernist architecture that remained true to the characteristics of the building, and was perhaps even superior to the direct experience of that building (the space in it's idealised form). Examples here would be the films of Pierre Chenal, Man Ray and Hans Richter that emphasise the dynamics of modernist architecture. Their emphasis is on movement and circulation in order to experience the building as a set of changing relationships between vistas, voids, solids and apertures. Secondly there is much academic and historical writing on the links between architecture and film, and in particular the connection between the moving, restless camera in early architectural film and the distracted gaze of the spectator of architectural modernism. Here film is seen as the ideal medium for rendering the dynamism of modern architecture and the connection between the roving camera and the mobile spectator as detailed in Beatriz Colomina's work on Le Corb and the architectural promenade are important. A final example of the context to the work to note is the recent publication in England of 'Zoomscapes; Architecture in Motion and Media' by Mitchell Schwarzer (Princeton) which presents many very interesting and closely related ideas - specifically the ways in which architecture is not solely experienced through the direct encounter with a built space but equally (if not predominantly) from the car, train or plane and through its representation in film, TV and photography. On Mendelsohn's 'America: An Architect's Picturebook' of 1926, he suggests that: "it focuses on the precise appearance of individual structures. A leading German architect of the interwar period, Mendelsohn was less interested in covering the totality of the modern city than in disseminating captivating visual information. In a review of the book, El Lissitzky writes, "a first leafing through the pages thrills us like a dramatic film. Before our eyes move pictures that are absolutely unique. In order to understand some of the photographs you must lift the book over your head and rotate it. The architect shows us America not from a distance but from within, as he leads us into the canyon of its streets". The relationship to the project is striking and is one of many connections that have emerged as the project has progressed. We are interested in Mendlesohn's public buildings for several reasons. Firstly; their extraordinary fluidity that seems to invite, demand even, a mobile gaze and the architectural language Mendlesohn uses in a deliberate way to captivate the viewer or user. (The demand to promenade is most apparent in the department store and particularly the seaside pavilion) Secondly; the ways his buildings aimed to render visible, or perform, ideological claims in terms of a syntax of use - the way the buildings were designed around the idea of a circulation and movement that is rhetorical. For instance, Mendlesohn designed the Metalworkers Union building to make visible the social and political claims of the union - the workers and union officials move through the building in a way that enacts the principles of democratic decision-making. Similarly he designed the St. Louis synagogue to render visible the idea of a community of faith, merging school with temple and community centre. The temple itself is organised around a 'spine' of light flooding from the Torah Shrine upwards and across the curve of the ceiling. The shooting, completed in December 2005 was helped greatly by the current users or owners of the buildings; Renee Dressner of the GGG (a Germany agency not unlike English Heritage in Britain), Peter Senft of the IGM (the German Metal Workers' Union) and Kathryn Adamchick in St. Louis, and Celia Davies at De La Warr Pavilion. All provided us with every practical help we needed as well extensive historical information about the buildings. In Berlin we were told a great deal about the relationship between the design and how it is intended to embody the ideological priorities of the union - the stairway in particular being the means by which the general membership moves from the street to the congress hall at the top of the building to then pass down its decisions to the offices below. Similarly the role that each building plays in the history and 'self-image' of the respective towns and cities, as well as their histories of use, reuse, decline and refurbishment, is of great interest. Much of what we were told by the numerous people we met does not exist in print, in English translation at least, as far as we are aware. It is of great relevance to the work and suggests the value of a catalogue documenting the work and presenting this research in the future. That the four buildings are either involved in or have a history of restoration, 'adaptive re-use' and refurbishment is also a very productive coincidence. The GGG in Chemnitz are yet to begin the planned refurbishment of the Schocken building, it is currently empty and suffering from its earlier neglect. The IGM building was entirely rebuilt after the Second World War (during which it was destroyed, as a Nazi Workers headquarters, by the Red Army as they captured Berlin) and is in beautiful condition. The De La Warr Pavilion benefits from a recently completed refurbishment and development, and the B'nai Amoona is currently undergoing some alterations. There is a 'sub-textual' importance to this ongoing process and as we have recognised it we shot the buildings with this, amongst many others factors, in mind. Each of the buildings was shot in a single day from early morning to night. We approached each of the four buildings quite differently, reflecting their very different qualities and current state. The large open spaces and gradual curves of the frontage of the Schocken building lent themselves to the use of the dolly and 360 degree pan and tilt head. A series of travelling spiral passes were made through the various levels. We also used the 'sled' mount to travel down the linear handrails of the stairways. In the IGM building we focussed on the extraordinary glass, marble and copper spiral staircase. Using the 360-degree pan and tilt head we mimicked the sinuous movement of the stairs and concentrated on the complex of reflections in the metal and glass elements as the users of the building moved from floor to floor. This use of an approach specific to each site and creating a distinct quality to each of the 'models' produced was continued in the shooting of the final location, the De La Warr Pavilion. Each of the separate 'buildings' has been edited as a set of three adjacent and slightly overlapping screens. These three sets of three screens were then adjusted or re-edited in relation to one another to achieve a strict and synchronised interrelationship, or choreography between all twelve moving images. The first exhibition of the finished work was commissioned by and staged at the De La Warr Pavilion. The work is specifically an environmental installation and the configuration of the tables in the space has been the final stage in the construction of the work – through shooting, to editing and installation. The arrangement of the tables has been devised in relation to the exhibition space itself and subject to a number of specific considerations – that there be no single straight route through the space, rather that the space has to be deliberately 'navigated', and that there was a position from which all twelve screens could be seen (if for some only at a distance) simultaneously to allow the synchronised movement across all twelve to play a primary part in the experience of the work. The size of the screens both allows for this 'overview' of movement across all twelve screens but by also avoiding the risk of overwhelming spectacle, draws the viewer into their relatively intimate individual size.

Text finalised on December 15th, 2023. This document is the result of collective reflection on the part of the CIDOB research team.Coordinated and edited by Carme Colomina, it includes contributions from Inés Arco, Anna Ayuso, Ana Ballesteros, Pol Bargués, Moussa Bourekba, Víctor Burguete, Anna Busquets, Javier Carbonell, Carmen Claudín, Francesc Fàbregues, Oriol Farrés, Agustí Fernández de Losada, Marta Galceran, Blanca Garcés, Seán Golden, Berta Güell, Julia Lipscomb, Bet Mañé, Ricardo Martínez, Esther Masclans, Óscar Mateos, Sergio Maydeu, Pol Morillas, Diego Muro, Francesco Pasetti, Héctor Sánchez, Reinhard Schweitzer, Antoni Segura, Cristina Serrano, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Alexandra Vidal and Pere Vilanova.  2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets. The elections held in more than 70 countries will serve as a stress test for the democratic system, and the impact of the multiple conflicts stoking global instability will shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights.The erosion of international norms is more acute than ever, and events become more unpredictable. 2024 begins wide open, marked by an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world, with hanging interests and alliances in issues such as geopolitical competition, green and digital transitions, or international security.The economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024: economic growth will be weak, and China's downturn will reverberate in emerging economies, in a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar. 2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets, a stress test both for the democratic system and for the multiple conflicts stoking global instability. We still face a world in disarray, in upheaval and in dispute. This time, however, any analysis hangs on the huge question mark of the intense series of elections that will shape the coming year. With all-out hostilities in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan or Yemen, we are seeing the most active conflicts of any time since the end of the Second World War. How the various armed conflicts and the outcome of the more than 70 elections marked on the calendar impact one another will set the geopolitical agenda for the coming months.There are elections that can turn the course of a war. The political fallout of the brutal Israeli offensive in Gaza or the stalemate on the Ukraine front also depend on the presidential race in the United States. The cracks in transatlantic unity and the increasingly direct accusations of double standards in the West's loyalties are not unrelated to what happens in the United States on November 5th, 2024. A return of Donald Trump to the White House would bring a drastic shift in the power relations and Washington's position in each of these conflicts, from weapons' supplies to the Ukrainian government or the support for Israel, to confrontation with Russia and China.Yet it is not only about the future of US democracy; over 4 billion people will go to the polls in more than 70 countries. The European Union (EU), India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela or Senegal, for instance: major actors that wield demographic or geopolitical clout will mark a year of unprecedented electoral intensity and shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights. More elections do not mean more democracy, however. We live in an age of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and extremely sophisticated manipulation that threatens the integrity of the ballot box. Hybrid systems are gaining ground, and it remains to be seen whether the cycle of elections in 2024 will signal a moment of deep degradation for democracy or a moment of resistance.The sensation of disorder is not new, nor even its quickening pace. But every year the erosion of current international norms is more marked, and events become more unpredictable. The world is increasingly decentralised, diversified and multidimensional. This "multiplex order", as Amitav Acharya described it in 2017, is cementing, because everything is happening simultaneously. And yet this reshaping of the world is still wide open because several struggles are playing out at once.







1. More conflict, more impunity2023 has been one of the most conflictive years in the world since the end of World War II. In just twelve months, political violence has increased by 27%. It grew in intensity and frequency. The war in Gaza brought 2023 to a close, with over 17,000 dead accounted for so far, warnings from the United Nations of the risk of humanitarian collapse and genocide of the Palestinian population trapped in the Strip, and the standoff between the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to try to secure a ceasefire. In this ongoing crisis of the liberal order and amid discussion over the validity of international law, Israel has dealt a severe blow to the credibility of the United Nations. The Security Council has become an instrument of paralysis; a pincer in the service of the interests of old powers that have led Guterres to publicly acknowledge his frustration and sense of impotence. A politically weakened United Nations clings to its humanitarian action on the ground to try to make the difference between life and death. At least 130 UN humanitarian workers have lost their lives in Gaza since October 7th, the highest number of UN fatalities in a conflict in its history. 2023 has been a violent year. It is estimated that 1 in 6 people in the world have been exposed to conflict in the last twelve months. The sense of impunity and disregard for international law has escalated. Not only in Gaza. The entrenchment of the war in Ukraine; the expulsion of the ethnic Armenian population from Nagorno Karabakh; or the succession of coups in six African countries in the last 36 months are a clear illustration of this moment of "deregulation of the use of force", which has been crystallising over years of erosion of international norms. And if in late 2023 we saw the departure of the international troops from the G5 Sahel deployed to Burkina Faso and Niger, as had already occurred the previous year with the expulsion of the French forces from Mali, in 2024 it will be the United Nations mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) that will have to leave the country before February 29th. Human Rights Watch has called the withdrawal a "catastrophic abdication" because it increases the risk of large-scale atrocities and abuses in a scenario of civil war, ethnic cleansing and famine that has forced more than 7 million people to flee their homes, making Sudan the country with the highest number of internally displaced persons in the world.And yet the international struggle to curtail impunity will be equipped with new tools in 2024. As of January 1st, the Ljubljana - The Hague Convention on International Cooperation in the Investigation and Prosecution of the Crime of Genocide, Crimes against Humanity, War Crimes and other International Crimes could be signed (and ratified) by the United Nations member states that wish to join. It is the primary treaty for fighting impunity for international crimes and facilitates cooperation among states in the judicial investigation of these crimes, it ensures reparation for victims and streamlines extradition. At the same time, the UN is also drafting a Convention on crimes against humanity with the aim of creating a treaty that is binding in international law, especially in a climate marked by an increase in these crimes in countries like Myanmar, Ukraine, Sudan or Ethiopia. The United Nations General Assembly will assess the progress of the negotiations in autumn 2024. It will all coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide.In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for war crimes in Ukraine, to no effect so far. But should Putin decide to attend the next G20 summit in Brazil in November 2024, it would present a challenge to the host country since, unlike last year's host India, Brazil is a party to the Rome Statute of 1998, the international treaty that led to the creation of the ICC. While President Lula da Silva initially said Putin would not be arrested if he attends the summit, he later rowed back, stating that the decision would fall to the Brazilian justice system and not the government. Despite the pessimism these treaties might produce, in recent months we have seen how, following the Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia signed the ICC's Rome Statute in November, acquiring member status as of February 2024. In addition, in late 2023 South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, the Comoros and Djibouti called for an International Criminal Court investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Palestine. In November 2023, the French judicial authorities issued an international arrest warrant for the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad – rehabilitated back into the Arab League the same year, more than a decade after being thrown out – and for several of his generals over the use of chemical weapons against their own people in 2013.2. Democracy under scrutinyMore than 4 billion people will go to the polls in 76 countries, which amounts to nearly 51% of the world's population. While most of the people in these countries will vote in full or flawed democracies, one in four voters will take part in ballots in hybrid and/or authoritarian regimes. In countries such as Russia, Tunisia, Algeria, Belarus, Rwanda or Iran the leaderships will use these elections to try to tighten their grip on power and gain legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens, while the other half of the electorate will exercise their right to vote in countries that have undergone democratic erosion or displayed illiberal tendencies in recent years, like the United States or India.The close of 2023 saw the inauguration of the "anarcho-capitalist" Javier Milei as Argentina's president, confirming the deep crisis of traditional parties and the rise of radical agendas, from Nayib Bukele's aggressively punitive approach in El Salvador ―who will seek re-election in 2024―, to Popular Renewal bursting onto the electoral scene in Peru, following the party's refoundation by the current mayor of Lima, Rafael López Aliaga. They are extreme responses to the various political, economic and security crisis situations. In Europe, there were mixed results at the polls, with victory for the Polish opposition, on one hand, and a win for the Islamophobic Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, on the other. The rapid succession of elections in 2024 will be decisive in determining whether the protest, fragmentation and rise of political extremism that have transformed democracies worldwide are reinforced or whether the system weathers the storm.The votes of women and young people will be key in this test of democracy. They were in Poland, punishing the reactionary polices of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). In Brazil or Austria, for example, men's support of far-right forces is 16 percentage points higher than that of women. In Mexico, the ballot in June 2024 will elect a woman as the country's president for the first time in its history. The two candidates are Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of the capital, for the ruling leftist party Morena, and Xóchitl Gálvez, for the opposition coalition Broad Front for Mexico, which brings together the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), among others. In the United States, the mobilisation of young Latinos will be particularly important. More than 4.7 million young Hispanics have obtained the right to vote in the last few years and they will play a significant role in key states like Nevada or Arizona. While this cohort tends to have a progressive stance and leanings, their view of the dominant parties is complex: questions of identity, discrimination or racism colour their relationships with both the Democrats and the Republicans and they reject political identification, reinforcing the idea that polarisation in the United States is more apparent among politicians than among their voters. Despite that, the fear of unfair elections has increased dramatically (from 49% in 2021 to 61% in 2023). Although US voters still perceive economic inequality as the main threat (69%), probably the greatest challenge in this election race is the presence of Donald Trump, not only because his immediate future is in the hands of the courts but also because if he does become the Republican presidential nominee, it will mean that the party has decided to place its future in the hands of the man who tried to overturn the results of the election four years ago and who the Congress committee to investigate the storming of the Capitol on January 6th, 2020, accused of "insurrection". January will see the start of the state primaries and caucuses. But with the final nominees still to be decided, according to the polls the scenario of an electoral contest between two candidates approaching or in their eighties currently favours Trump. Meanwhile, the date of the former president's trial can get dangerously close to the Super Tuesday, scheduled for March 5, the day on which 13 states vote in the Republican primaries.An investigation by The Guardian with the University of Chicago found that 5.5% of Americans, or 14 million people, believe that the use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency, while 8.9% of Americans, or 23 million people, believe that force is justified to prevent him from being president. It is not an isolated trend. The risk of political instability and violence related to electoral processes is on the rise, as the Kofi Annan Foundation confirms.The future of the European Union, which is facing the winter with two wars on its doorstep, will also be decided at the ballot box. Apart from the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held from June 6th to 9th, 2024, 12 member states are also going to the polls. The general elections in Belgium, Portugal or Austria will be a good gauge of the strength of the far right, which is shaping up as one of the winners in the elections to the European Parliament. If the vote in 2019 spelled the end of the grand coalition that had guaranteed social democrats and Christian democrats a majority in the chamber since the European Parliament's beginnings, the big question now is knowing just how far right the European Union will swing.The latest voting intention projections show significant results for the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, home of extreme-right parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD), which would win as many as 87 seats and surpass the other family on the radical right, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, which would go from 66 MEPs at present to 83. Despite the loss of seats for the traditional forces, the European People's Party (EPP) will remain the EU's main political family. So, one of the questions in 2024 is whether the EPP, led by the Bavarian Manfred Weber, would be ready to seek a possible majority with the radical right.The new majorities will be crucial to determining the future of European climate commitments, continued aid to Ukraine and urgent institutional reforms to facilitate the accession of future members. The EU must deliver on the promise of enlargement, but it is increasingly ill-prepared to carry it through.Four candidate countries to join the EU will hold elections in 2024: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Georgia, as well as the question mark hanging over the staging of elections in Ukraine. According to its constitution, Ukraine should hold elections in March 2024. But under martial law, imposed in the wake of Russia's invasion in 2022, with part of the electorate reluctant to vote in such exceptional circumstances and 8 million Ukrainian refugees outside the country, Volodymyr Zelensky already said in November that it was not "the right time" to go to the polls.The United Kingdom too, in the throes of a political and social crisis could hold early general elections, which are scheduled for January 2025. With the Conservatives facing a challenging scenario against the Labour Party headed by Keir Starmer, the current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has the power to call the election at a time of his choosing at any point before then. Another issue is Libya. Since the United Nations plan to stage elections was postponed indefinitely in 2021, the inability to reach an agreement between the members of the two governments in the east and west of the country has put the possible date for elections back again, to 2024.There will be 16 elections in Africa, although only six of them will take place in countries considered to be democratic. Thirty years after the 1994 elections in South Africa, which marked the beginning of a democratic journey dominated since then by the African National Congress (ANC), the political landscape is beginning to change. The 2024 general elections may confirm the weakening of power and support for the ANC, while the main opposition parties seek alliances to present an alternative. In addition, the complicated economic situation, combined with other factors such as corruption, has led to the growing popularity of extremist parties.Also in India, the opposition presents itself more united than ever against Narendra Modi seeking to renew a third term in the spring. Boosted by nationalism, polarization, and disinformation, Modi will showcase the country's economic and geopolitical achievements. In 2023 India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world.Finally, it also remains to be seen what degree of participation the Venezuelan opposition might have in the presidential elections agreed with Nicolás Maduro for the second half of the year. For now, the internal panorama has become even more strained with the intensification of the territorial conflict with Guyana and the mobilization of the army.







3. From information overload to social disconnection Societies are increasingly weary, overwhelmed by the saturation of content and exhausted by the speed of the changes they must assimilate. Political and electoral uncertainty and the multiple conflicts that will shape 2024 will only widen the distance between society, institutions and political parties. The number of people who say they "avoid" the news remains close to all-time highs and is particularly prominent in Greece (57%), Bulgaria (57%), Argentina (46%) or the United Kingdom (41%). The main reasons? The excessive repetition of certain news stories and the emotional impact they can have on the population's mental health. In particular, according to the Reuters Institute, this fatigue is prompted by issues such as the war in Ukraine (39%), national politics (38%) and news related to social justice (31%), with high levels of politicisation and polarisation. The echoes of the COVID-19 pandemic, images of war-related violence and the economic impact of such events on increasingly adverse living standards for the population have magnified this trend towards disconnection, aggravated by a sense of loneliness and polarisation. Yet this drop in news consumption has gone hand in hand with greater use of social networks: younger generations, for example, are increasingly likely to pay more attention to influencers than to journalists. At the same time, there is growing fragmentation on the social networks. The migration of users to Instagram or TikTok has also changed the way current affairs are consumed, with a prioritisation of leisure over news content. It is not just a voluntary rejection of information; this tendency to disconnect has also led to a reduction in the social participation and involvement in online debates that had characterised the Arab Springs, the MeToo movement or Black Lives Matter. Nearly half of open social networks users (47%) no longer participate in or react to the news. But, moreover, the disconnect from the news is also linked to the political disconnection and social shifts that have clearly altered electoral behaviour. Demographic changes related to technology use and an environment of constant volatility have also resulted in a drop in voter loyalty and that has contributed to the crisis of the traditional parties. The identity element of belonging to a party has changed among young people. Identification is built on stances on issues such as climate change, immigration, racism, women's or LGBTQIA+ rights or even the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Some 65% of American adults say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics. According to the Pew Research Center, six out of ten Americans of voting age admit to having little or no confidence in the future of their country's political system. And this discontent extends to the three branches of government, the current political leaders and candidates for public office. When asked to sum up their feelings about politics in a word, 79% are negative or critical. The most frequently repeated words are "divisive", "corrupt", "chaos" or "polarised", and they complain that conflicts between Republicans and Democrats receive too much attention and there is too little attention paid "to the important issues facing the country". The paradox, however, is that this discontent has coincided with historically high levels of voter turnout over the last few years. The question is whether there will be a repeat of this in the presidential elections in November, especially when they reflect another element of generational disaffection: gerontocracy. The average age of global leaders is 62. In young people's view, the traditional political parties have failed to articulate a direct form of communication, increasing the sense of disconnection between society, politicians and institutions. In this context, a repeat of the Biden-Trump confrontation in 2024 would emphasize the extreme polarization between Republicans and Democrats in an electoral cycle considered risky. Abortion rights and security remain strong mobilization points for voters.Sometimes, however, the disconnection can be forced and in this case a news blackout becomes a weapon of repression and censorship or freedom of expression. Iran, India and Pakistan were the three countries with most new internet restrictions in the first half of 2023, and all three are holding elections in 2024. With the rise and consolidation of AI, disinformation will be an additional challenge in this "super election year". The rapid progress of AI, particularly generative AI, may cast an even longer shadow over trust in information and electoral processes. The refinement of deepfakes, quick and easy creation of images, text, audios files or propaganda by AI and a growing dependence on social media to check and research facts form a breeding ground for disinformation at time when there is still no effective control of these technologies. Perhaps that is why the Merriam-Webster dictionary's word of the year for 2023 is "authentic". With the prelude of "post-truth" in 2016, technology's capacity to manipulate facts has no precedent, from the authenticity of an image to the writing of an academic work. Hence more than half of social media users (56%) say they doubt their own capacity to identify the difference between what is real and fake in news on the internet.4. Artificial intelligence: explosion and regulation 2023 was the year that generative AI burst into our lives; the year that ChatGPT was presented to society, which in January, just two months after its launch, already had 100 million users. In August, it hit 180 million. Yet the revolution also brought a new awareness of the risks, acceleration and transformation involved in a technology that aspires to match, or even improve or surpass human intelligence. That is why 2024 will be a crucial year for AI regulation. The foundations have already been laid. It only remains to review the different initiatives under way. The most ambitious is that of the European Union, which is resolved to become the first region in the world to equip itself with a comprehensive law to regulate artificial intelligence and lead the coming leap forward. The EU has opted to categorise the risks (unacceptable, high, limited or minimal) posed by the use of AI systems and will require a "fundamental rights impact assessment" be carried out before a "high-risk" AI system can be put on the market. The agreement reached in December will be ratified in the first quarter of 2024 and give way to a period of two years before its full implementation in 2026.Almost at the eleventh hour too, on December 1st of 2023 the G7 agreed international guidelines for artificial intelligence developers and users, particularly for generative AI, mentioning the need to introduce measures to deal with disinformation. G7 leaders see it as one of the chief risks because of possible manipulation of public opinion on the eve of a year of global election overdrive.But the debate on governance goes hand in hand with a geopolitical race to lead technological innovation and, unlike the EU, in the case of the United States and China that also means development of its military application. Both countries are looking to bolster their leadership. The first international AI safety summit, called by the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, became a meeting point of major global powers – both public and private; techno-authoritarian or open – trying to regulate or influence the debates on regulation under way. A second in-person summit will take place in Seoul and a third one in Paris, both in 2024 . For now, the "Bletchley Declaration" is on the table, a document signed by 28 countries that gathers the pledge to tackle the main risks of artificial intelligence, an agreement to examine tech companies' AI models before they are launched and a deal to assemble a global panel of experts on artificial intelligence inspired by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) . In addition, at the US Embassy in London, 31 countries signed a parallel (non-binding) agreement to place limits on the military use of AI. China, for its part, continues to move towards its goal of reaching 70% self-sufficiency in critical technologies by 2025, while clearly increasing its presence in the main tech-related international standardisation bodies.To add to this flurry of regulatory activity, a Global Digital Compact will be agreed at the Summit of the Future in September 2024, organised by the United Nations. This agreement will create a framework of multi-actor and multisectoral cooperation among governments, private enterprise and civil society, which should lay down a set of common rules to guide digital development in the future. The application of human rights online, the regulation of AI and digital inclusion will be some of the main topics under discussion.This need to regulate artificial intelligence will also be heightened in the coming months by a growing democratisation of AI tools, which will bring greater integration into different professional sectors. The focus on a responsible AI will be stepped up locally (more cities deploying AI strategies or regulatory frameworks), nationally and transnationally. As AI takes on a more important role in decision-making throughout society safety, trustworthiness, equity and responsibility are crucial. The latest annual McKinsey report on the use of generative AI tools says that a third of companies surveyed had begun to use these types of programs. The tech and communications sector (40%), as well as financial services (38%) and the legal profession (36%), are the frontrunners in their use and application. Yet the same survey also states that precisely the industries relying most heavily on the knowledge of their employees are those that will see a more disruptive impact of these technologies. Whether that impact is positive or negative is still unclear. Unlike other revolutions that had an effect on the labour market, it is white-collar workers who are likely to feel most vulnerable in the face of generative AI. A European Central Bank study, meanwhile, says that AI has not supplanted workers, but it has lowered their wages slightly, especially in jobs considered low and medium-skilled, which are more exposed to automatisation, and particularly among women.In the midst of this regulatory acceleration of the digital revolution, 2024 will also be the year when the European Union deploys, to it full potential, the new legislation on digital services and markets to place limits and obligations on the monopolistic power of the major platforms and their responsibility in the algorithmic spread of disinformation and harmful content. As of January 1st, it will be compulsory for Big Tech to abide by these regulations, with potential fines for breaches of as much as 6% of global turnover, according to the DSA (Digital Services Act) and between 10% and 20% of global turnover, according to the DMA (Digital Markets Act). The flow of international data will also increase in 2024, particularly transfers between the EU and the United States, by virtue of the new Data Privacy Framework approved in July 2023. We will also see fresh scrutiny from NGOs and digital rights groups to ascertain the legality of these transfers and whether they respect individual privacy.5. Economic fallout and debt sustainabilityThe economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024, especially the impact of the interest rate hikes to counter the biggest spike in inflation in 40 years following the energy crisis of 2022. Meanwhile, tougher financing conditions will limit fiscal policy, following the rapid rise in borrowing to tackle COVID-19 and the impact of the war in Ukraine.In a climate like this, growth will be slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not expect inflation to return to the target of most central banks until 2025, which augurs high interest rates for a long time yet, especially if there is a strain on oil prices again against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF's growth forecast for 2024 is 2.9%, much the same as the estimate for 2023 and below pre-pandemic growth rates.Economies, however, will cool unevenly. The United States appears to have dodged recession thanks to the strength of its labour market and of fiscal incentives, which means it is likely to have a softer landing. Industrial relocation policies, like the Inflation Reduction Act, record corporate profits after Covid and the extraordinary loss of purchasing power caused by inflation are some of the ingredients to explain the resurgence of the US labour movement, without precedent since the 1970s. Its success may spread to other sectors and economies with strained labour markets. Thus, a fall in inflation and an increase in salaries in 2024 could provide some economic relief.







In the European Union, there will be greater scrutiny of public accounts, especially those of countries with least financial wiggle room like Italy, following a sharp increase in borrowing to tackle the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine, owing to financing conditions and the entry into force of the reform of the EU's fiscal rules. "Fiscal discipline" will also loom large in the negotiation of the EU's new budget framework (MFF), where its greatest wishes (support for Ukraine, backing for industrial policy, the green transition and an increase in appropriations for defence, migration or the Global Gateway) will come face to face with reality (lack of resources or agreement to increase them). The adoption of the European Economic Security Strategy and the outcome of the antidumping investigation into Chinese subsidies on electric vehicles will go a long way to determining whether, on the economic front, the EU opts to align with the United States in its strategic competition with China or tries to be a champion of a reformed globalisation.It will also be necessary to keep a close eye on the development of China, which is facing its lowest economic growth in 35 years, not counting the Covid years, weighed down by its imbalances, particularly as far as an excessive accumulation of debt and dependence on the property sector are concerned. The change in the rules of globalisation prompted by US strategic competition will also hamper its exports and capacity to attract capital in a climate in which the Chinese leadership prioritises economic security over growth. With unfavourable demographics, the country has yet to establish domestic consumption as a motor for growth.Emerging economies will feel the force of China's slump, especially those with greater trade and financial dependence. The success of the Belt and Road Initiative in terms of investment volume has been overshadowed by repayment difficulties in up to 60% of the loans, which along with criticism has led Xi Jinping to announce a new phase of investments with smaller projects. In 2024, China's new role as a lender of last resort and its participation in the debt restructuring processes of countries in distress will have growing importance in how it is perceived and in its geoeconomic influence over the Global South.







A large number of emerging countries are in a delicate fiscal situation. In a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar, that also exacerbates their external vulnerability. While some countries such as Mexico, Vietnam or Morocco are capitalising on the reconfiguration of trade and value chains (nearshoring), most emerging economies are likely to be adversely affected by a scenario of greater economic fragmentation. According to the WTO, trade in goods between hypothetical geopolitical blocs – based on voting patterns in the United Nations – has grown between 4% and 6% slower than trade within these blocs since the invasion of Ukraine.In this climate of scant monetary and fiscal space, the buffer for cushioning another crisis is extremely thin, which could exacerbate market volatility and nervousness in the face of episodes of uncertainty. The main focus of attention may shift from Ukraine to the Middle East, since shocks from oil are felt more broadly across the economy than those from natural gas. This could directly affect the EU and Spain, which are particularly dependent because they import over 90% of the oil they consume. In addition, strategic oil reserves in the United States have not been so low since 1983 and the few countries with capacity to increase crude production (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Russia) may not be inclined to do so without significant political concessions.6. South(s) and North(s)In our outlook for 2023 we announced the consolidation of the Global South as a space of confrontation and leadership and pointed to the strategic presence of India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Brazil. In 2024, this reconfiguration will go a step further. The contradictions and fragmentations of this dichotomous North-South approach will become more apparent than ever. The Global South has established itself as a key actor in the pushback against the West on anti-imperialist grounds or over double standards. The most symbolic image of this moment of geopolitical expansion will come in October 2024, when the BRICS bloc meets in Russia to formalise its expansion. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are welcoming Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran into the fold. Together they account for 46% of the world's population, 29% of global GDP and include two of the three biggest oil producers in the world. Thus, the BRICS will have an even more powerful voice, although, inevitably, it may also mean more internal contradictions and conflicting agendas. The election of Javier Milei as the president of Argentina, who has confirmed his decision not to join the BRICS, also feeds into the idea of this clash of agendas and interests in the Global South. Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for strategic influence in the Persian Gulf. India and China have their own border disputes in the Himalayas. The Global South will continue to gain clout, but it will also be more heterogeneous. Other than a shared postcolonial rhetoric, its action is extremely diverse.The Global South is multiregional and multidimensional and comprises different political regimes. But it is also a geographical space where global trade flows are consolidating as a result of reglobalisation. The latest WTO annual report confirms that, while advanced economies are still key players in world trade, they are no longer dominant. However, , if in 2023 we spoke of the geopolitical acceleration of the "others", with India as the symbol of this potential leadership of the Global South, in 2024 it will be Latin America that tries to take a central role. Brazil will host the G20, while Peru will be the venue for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.







And as we move beyond dichotomies, a deep internal crack may also appear in the Global North should the return of Donald Trump to the White House materialise. Transatlantic distance dominates a new framework of relations that is more transactional than a conventional alliance. Washington and Brussels' differences will worsen in 2024 when the United States asks the European Union to increase its contributions to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and internal divisions among the member states prevent it. The second half of 2024 will be particularly tense, when Hungary – the most reluctant EU country when it comes to military aid and Ukraine's possible accession – takes over the EU's rotating presidency. It will also be paradoxical if this rift in the Global North widens because of the Ukraine war. Precisely, in 2023, the Ukrainian conflict was the mortar that cemented transatlantic unity, and confronted the EU and the United States with the limits of their ability to influence in the face of a Global South that questioned the double standards of the West. In 2024, however, the war in Ukraine may increase the distance between Washington and Brussels.Despite this logic of confrontation, the geopolitical short-sightedness of binarism is increasingly misplaced. And yet, it is difficult to overcome. The fact that both the United States and the European Union conceive their relations with Latin America solely as a space for resource exploitation and geopolitical dispute with China, is part of that short-sightedness. For the moment, the repeated failure of the negotiations over an EU-Mercosur agreement are dashing South America's hopes of being able to boost its trade presence in the European single market. Talks will resume in the first half of 2024, after Paraguay takes over the Mercosur presidency from Brazil.7. Backsliding on international commitmentsThe year 2023 left international cooperation in a shambles. Employing increasingly blunt language, António Guterres declared that the world is "woefully off-track" in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which reached the halfway point to their 2030 deadline in 2023. The coming year must prove whether the international community is still capable of and wishes to agree on coordinated responses to common global problems through organs of collective governance. It will not be easy. We face an acceleration of the ecological crisis, record migration and forced displacements and a clear regression of the gender equality agenda.For the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas will reach a high point this decade, based only on current policy settings, according to the World Energy Outlook 2023. In the short term, fossil fuel-producing countries are ignoring the climate warnings and plan to increase the extraction of coal, oil and gas. The choice of an oil state, the United Arab Emirates, as the host of a climate summit and the appointment of a fossil fuels executive as president was a bad omen at the very least.And yet, COP28 in Dubai has been the first to have managed to produce a text that explicitly recognizes the need to "transitioning away from" fossil fuels: oil, coal and gas, as the main culprits of the climate crisis. Although the final agreement has been celebrated as historic for referring to this need to initiate a transition to guarantee net zero emissions in 2050, the degree of ambition demonstrated is not sufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Likewise, while the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund to compensate the countries most affected by climate change is also a positive step, the initial collection of $700 million falls far short of what is necessary. Every year developing countries face $400 billion in losses linked to climate action.In this context, not only do we run the risk of exacerbating climate impacts; we shall also see a rise – more acutely than ever – of social and political tensions between governments and societies over the exploitation of resources. In Europe there is growing discontent with the EU's climate transition policies and the rise of Eurosceptic and radical right forces in the European Parliament elections of June 2024 will raise this pressure still further. The flurry of regulatory activity on climate and industrial matters is increasing the politicisation of this issue and stoking social unrest in certain member states. Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and certain sectors in Germany, particularly the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), are trying to limit the EU's ambitions on climate action. The arrival of a new government in Sweden, backed by the radical right, has slammed the brakes on the climate commitments led by one of the countries that has most contributed to EU environment policies. A hypothetical return of Donald Trump to the White House would also shake again some of the limited domestic and international progress in this area.According to a poll carried out by Ipsos, while a large part of European households continues to put the environment before economic growth, this proportion is declining. If in 2019, 53% of households preferred to protect the environment, in 2022 the figure had fallen by 5 percentage points, despite the clear impact of climate phenomena. Yet the trend of "not in my back yard" is not limited to Europe. In late 2023, we saw the resistance of Panamanians against a mining contract extension. Some experts speak of a "clash of environmentalisms" to refer to the confrontation that arises between those who wish to protect their country's natural resources and do not want to see a deterioration in their ecosystems and the interests of governments seeking resources to fuel their energy transition. We might see the same in the European Union. In early 2024, the Critical Raw Minerals Act will enter into force. It aims to guarantee the supply of nickel, lithium, magnesium and other essential materials for the green transition and strategic industries that are vital for electric cars and renewable energies, military equipment and aerospace systems, as well as for computers and mobile phones. And with this in mind the EU means to revive the mining industry on the continent. It is a move that may trigger protests by ecologists in the EU in the coming months.UN member states are also expected to reach a global agreement to end plastic pollution in 2024. It will be an international legally binding treaty and is hailed as the most important multilateral environmental pact since the Paris Agreement, setting a plan of action to 2040.However, it is gender policies and migration policies that are most exposed to this radical wave that has transformed government agendas, particularly in the European Union and Latin America. While it is true that gender parity recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, the rate of progress has slowed. At the present pace, it will take 131 years to reach full parity. Although the share of women hired for positions of leadership has increased steadily by approximately 1% a year globally over the last eight years, that trend was reversed in 2023, falling to 2021 levels.The emerging feminist foreign policies, which defined those countries with a clear commitment to promoting gender equality in international relations, have added four important losses in recent months: Sweden, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, and Argentina. The changes in government, together with the growing politicization and polarization of issues perceived as "feminist", have demonstrated the easy abandonment of these initiatives, dependent on the progressive orientations of the governments in power. Mexico, another of the countries that has adopted these policies, will face elections in June that will also mark the continuity or abandonment of its commitment to gender equality in foreign action. And, despite not having a feminist foreign policy, Trump's return to the White House could lead to the reinstatement of restrictive abortion policies and funding cuts against international NGOs that promote sexual and reproductive rights.Moreover, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) reports a resurgence of anti-feminist trends in countries like Croatia and Italy and notes sexist and homophobic speech on the part of European leaders such as Viktor Orbán, Andrzej Duda or Giorgia Meloni, who have justified attacks on women's and LGBTQIA+ rights, undermining years of efforts to secure progress in breaking up gender stereotypes. Although the EU Gender Action Plan III is valid until 2025, a change in Brussels would also dilute the commitments of one of the actors most involved in this area.On a more positive note, it will be interesting to follow, in 2024, the progress of the Convention against Crimes against Humanity, which the UN is developing, as feminist and civil society movements around the world will take this opportunity to try to codify the gender apartheid as a crime against humanity – especially due to the Taliban regime's continued discrimination and oppression of Afghan women, and the situation of Iranian women.European migration policies have also suffered a major setback. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which is set to move forward before the European elections in 2024, is a legitimisation of the EU's anti-immigration policies. The deal allows delays in registering asylum seekers, the introduction of second-rate border asylum procedures and extends detention time at the border. In short, it lowers standards and legalises what hitherto was unequivocally illegal.This looming agreement reflects the levels of polarisation and politicisation that set the tone of the European response to migration. And as we enter the run-up to the election campaign the migration debate will be even further to the fore in the coming months. It is, what's more, part of another, deeper process. The EU's externalisation policies have also fostered the stigmatisation of immigrants and refugees in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa).8. Humanitarian collapseWar and violence drove forced displacement worldwide to a new high estimated at 114 million people by the end of September 2023, according to UNHCR. The main drivers of these forced displacements were the war in Ukraine and conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, as well as drought, floods and insecurity blighting Somalia and a prolonged humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.In the first six months of 2023 alone, 1.6 million new individual asylum applications were made, the highest figure ever recorded. This is not an exceptional situation. The reignition of forgotten conflicts has increased levels of volatility and violence. In October 2023, over 100,500 people, more than 80% of the estimated 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan took control of the enclave. There were also thousands of displaced persons in northern Shan because of an escalation in fighting between the Myanmar armed forces and various armed groups. At the end of October 2023, nearly 2 million people were internally displaced in Myanmar, living in precarious conditions and in need of vital assistance. And the images of over 1 million Palestinians fleeing their homes because of the Israeli military offensive, after Hamas attack from October 7, illustrate the humanitarian crisis afflicting Gaza.This increase in the number of displaced persons and refugees, however, has not been accompanied by a boost in international aid. Close to 1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh must cope with declining international commitment. The United Nations reduced its food assistance and humanitarian aid to this group by one third in 2023. A lack of international funding considerably reduced assistance levels in 2023 and the World Food Programme was obliged to cut the size and scope of its food, monetary and nutritional assistance by between 30% and 50%. Some 2.3 billion people, nearly 30% of the global population, currently face a situation of moderate or severe food insecurity. Further rises in food prices in 2024 and the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural production may make the situation even worse still. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipates that a total of 105 to 110 million people will require food assistance at least until early 2024, with an increase in need in the regions of southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, and a net decrease in eastern Africa.Experts are pointing to the risk of a new rice crisis in 2024, as a result of India's export restrictions to try to cushion the effects of a drop in domestic production. The shock wave from the ban has also driven up the price of rice in Thailand and Vietnam, the second and third biggest exporters after India, which have seen prices rise by 14% and 22%, respectively. Added to that are the effects of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, associated with heat and drought across the Pacific Ocean, which could harm production in 2024. Experts are currently warning that if India maintains the current restrictions, the world is headed for a repeat of the rice crisis of 2008.El Niño, which is set to continue to mid-2024, is usually associated with increased rainfall in certain areas of southern South America and the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. On the other hand, El Niño can also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia.The last episode of the phenomenon, in 2016, was the warmest year on record, with global heat records that have yet to be surpassed.Donor governments and humanitarian agencies must prepare for major assistance needs in multiple regions. The year 2023 has left us some indication of it: extreme drought in the Amazon and maritime traffic restrictions in the Panama Canal; forest fires in Bolivia and power cuts in Ecuador owing to low electricity production in over 80% of hydroelectric plants; the worst floods on record in northwest Argentina, which also caused landslides affecting over 6,000 people; and a devastating category 5 hurricane in Mexico that surprised the authorities and scientists, who failed to foresee the intensity of the phenomenon. 9. Securitisation vs. rightsThe conflict between security and fundamental rights has been a constant feature of 2023 and the electoral uncertainty of the coming months will only compound the urge to pursue heavy-handed policies and control. The public debate throughout Latin America, without exception, has been dominated by security, directly impacting other crises such as migration, which has affected the entire continent for a decade and in 2024 is expected to be even more intense. "Bukelism" has a growing number of fans. The new Argentine president, Javier Milei, has said he is an admirer of the hard-line polices of the Salvadoran president, Nayib Bukele. The election campaign in Ecuador was also coloured by the debate on security.The continent is fighting a new crime wave that has spilled into traditionally more stable countries that are now part of lucrative drug-trafficking routes, as is the case of Paraguay and Argentina. People trafficking, particularly the criminal exploitation of the Venezuelan migration crisis, has also grown throughout Latin America. Against this backdrop, the United Nations and Interpol have launched a joint initiative to combat human trafficking. It remains to be seen what impact the Venezuelan elections might have on this migration crisis, which has already led to over 7 million people leaving their homes since 2014.







Moreover, increasing impunity has also brought a mounting risk of authoritarian inclinations on the part of governments in Latin America, with the militarisation of public security and an undermining of democracy across the continent. In the European Union too. For some time, the sense of vulnerability has been a political boon for certain forces in the EU. With the outbreak of war in Gaza, some European countries ramped up security for fear of terrorist attacks, going to the extreme of banning demonstrations in support of the Palestinian people, as in France. In this climate, the securitisation of social movements is also emerging as a strategy that will continue to gain prominence in 2024. More and more, democratic governments are stepping up the pressure on protest movements: fines, curbs on free speech or judicial persecution are shrinking the space for civil dissent. On this point, the EU has reached an agreement to legislate against strategic lawsuits that seek to discourage public participation or silence independent media (known as SLAPPs) which is set to be ratified before the end of the current legislative term.Finally, the debate on security and its impact on individual rights will also mark the months leading up to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Civil rights groups have decried the French government's plans to use AI surveillance cameras to pick up real-time activity on the streets of the capital during the games. Technology is a crucial component of the transformation that security and conflict are undergoing. Drones have become a vital weapon for the resistance in Ukraine, and in the arsenal of Hamas in its October 7th attack on Israel. A United States in the midst of budget cuts is, however, poised to inject extra cash into the Pentagon in 2024 for the development of "electronic warfare" programmes.10. The decoupling of interests and valuesThere is a common thread in many of the previous points that connects an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world through changing interests and alliances. In its 2023 Strategic Foresight Report, the European Commission acknowledges that the "battle of narratives" it used for so long as an argument in the geopolitical confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism is becoming obsolete. It goes further than the realisation that the West has lost the battle for the narrative in the Ukraine war and that its double standards in the face of global conflicts diminishes the EU's clout. Sudan is the clearest example of how the West can commit to wars it considers existential for the survival of its own values, such as the Ukraine one, while it ignores the genocide being carried out, with house-to-house murders, in the refugee camps of Darfur.The world has turned into a "battle of offers", shaping both public opinion and government action. There is a growing diversity of options and alliances. Thus far, hegemonic narratives are either challenged or no longer serve to make sense of the world. In this "unbalanced multipolarity", with medium-sized powers setting regional agendas, the major traditional powers are compelled to seek their own space. Global competition for resources to fuel the green and digital transitions accentuates this variable geometry of agreements and alliances still further. And the results of the series of elections in 2024 may ultimately reinforce this transformation. The United States' isolationist inclinations are real. Vladimir Putin will confirm his resilience at the polls, after dodging the effects of the international sanctions and building an economic apparatus to withstand a long war in Ukraine. In India, Narendra Modi's popularity remains intact and drives the dominance of his party. The election question sets the stage for a 2024 that begins wide open. The crisis of the liberal order, aggravated by the international reaction to the latest conflicts, and the erosion of multilateralism – with an explicit challenge to the United Nations – foster yet further this sensation of a dispersion of global power towards an assortment of dynamic medium-sized powers capable of helping to shape the international environment in the coming decades.A pivotal year begins to evaluate the resistance capacity of democratic systems long subdued to a profound erosion. We will be attentive to the outcome of the ballots and to the increasing unabashed actions of bullets, pressing the limits of impunity.







CIDOB calendar 2024: 75 dates to mark on the agenda January 1 – Changeover in the United Nations Security Council. Algeria, Guyana, the Republic of South Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia start their terms as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, replacing Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates, whose terms end. January 1 – Dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist at the start of the year, after more than three decades of control over the territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to reintegrate this predominantly ethnic Armenian-populated enclave. The assault led the self-declared republic to announce its dissolution. January 1 – BRICS expansion. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as full members of BRICS. Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, has finally ruled out his country's incorporation. January 1 – Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union. Belgium takes over the rotating presidency of the Council from Spain, marking the end of this institutional cycle. The Belgian semester will hold until June 30. January 7 – Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. The vote will take place against a backdrop of deep political division in the country. This division led to mass demonstrations by the opposition at the end of 2023, calling for an interim government to oversee the elections. The current prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is looking to for another term after 15 years in power, while her main rival and leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Khaleda Zia, is currently under house arrest on charges of corruption. January 13 – General elections in Taiwan. For the first time since Taiwan became a democracy, three candidates are competing for the presidency after the opposition failed to form a common front: the current vice president Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party; Hou You-yi from the Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and leader of the Taiwan People's Party. The outcome of these elections will mark the course of Taiwan's policy towards China, with an eye on the United States, at a time of growing tension between Taipei and Beijing. January 14 – Inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo as president of Guatemala. To widespread surprise, the Seed Movement candidate won the 2023 elections. Since the vote was held, political and social tension in the country has been rising due to efforts by the Guatemalan public prosecutor's office to overturn the election results and prevent Arévalo from taking office. January 15-19 – World Economic Forum. An annual event that gathers major political leaders, senior executives from the world's leading companies, heads of international organisations and NGOs, and prominent cultural and social figures. This year's meeting will mainly focus on examining the opportunities provided by the development of emerging technologies and their impact on decision-making and international cooperation. January 15-20 – 19th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement. Uganda will be the venue for the next summit of the 120 countries that make up this grouping of states. The theme for this edition is "Deepening cooperation for shared global affluence" and it is scheduled to tackle multiple global challenges of today with a view to fostering cooperation among the member states. January 21-23 – Third South Summit of G-77 + China. Uganda will host this forum looking to promote South-South cooperation, under the theme "Leaving no one behind". The 134 member states from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean will focus on the areas of trade, investment, sustainable development, climate change and poverty eradication. February 4 – Presidential elections in El Salvador. Nayib Bukele, who heads the New Ideas party and currently holds the presidency of El Salvador, is shaping up as the clear favourite for re-election. The country has been in a state of emergency since March 2022, in response to the security challenges affecting the nation. February 8 – Presidential elections in Pakistan. Since Imran Khan's removal as prime minister in April 2022, Pakistan has been mired in political instability, deep economic crisis and rising violence on the part of armed groups. The elections will be supervised by a caretaker government after the expiry of the Pakistani parliament's five-year term in August 2023. February 14 – Presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia. Three candidates are competing to succeed the current president, Joko Widodo, who after two terms cannot stand for re-election. The next leader will face the challenges of boosting growth in an economy reliant on domestic consumption, driving the development of the tech industry and navigating pressure from China and the United States to protect their national interests. February 16-18 – 60th Munich Security Conference. Held every year, it is the leading independent forum on international security policy and gathers high-level figures from over 70 countries. Strengthening the rules-based international order, the impact of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, resisting revisionist tendencies or the security implications of climate change will be some of the main issues on this year's agenda. February 17-18 – African Union Summit. Ethiopia, which holds the presidency of the African Union, will be organising the summit. This year, it will address some of the numerous issues in Africa, including instability in the Sahel, growing global food insecurity, natural disasters on the continent or democratic backsliding. In addition, the tensions between Morocco and Algeria will be centre stage as both countries are vying for the presidency. February 25 – Presidential elections in Senegal. Following multiple waves of protests, the current president, Macky Sall, announced he would not be standing for a third term. It is the first time in the country's democratic history that a sitting president will not be standing in the elections. The need to ensure jobs for the country's young population will be one of the key issues in the election campaign. February 26-29 – Mobile World Congress. Barcelona hosts the world's biggest mobile phone event, gathering the leading international tech and communications companies. This edition will be devoted to 5G technology, connectivity, the promotion of human-centred artificial intelligence or the digital transformation, among other themes. March 1 – Parliamentary elections in Iran. With an eye on the succession of the ageing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranians will elect their representatives to the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, the latter body in charge of electing the new supreme leader in the coming years. The elections will be marked by the escalation of tension in the Middle East and the deep economic and social crisis that has increased popular disaffection with the regime. March 8 – International Women's Day. Now a key date on the political and social calendar of many countries. Mass demonstrations have gained momentum in recent years, particularly in Latin America, the United States and Europe. The common goal is the struggle for women's rights and gender equality throughout the world. March 10 – Parliamentary elections in Portugal. The country faces a snap election after the institutional crisis triggered by the resignation of the socialist prime minister, António Costa. The former leader was the target of a judicial investigation over alleged corruption that directly involved several members of his government team. March 15-17 – Presidential elections in Russia. While Vladimir Putin is expected to secure re-election, maintaining his grip on power until 2030, Russia will go to the polls against a backdrop of multiple domestic security challenges. The Russian withdrawal from the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the failed Wagner uprising of June 2023 and the antisemitic disturbances in the North Caucus in October could force Putin to use the election calendar to embark on major a shakeup of the political and military leaderships. March 18 – 10th anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea. The annexation of Crimea by Russia, which had invaded the region some weeks earlier, was formalised via a referendum on Crimea's political status that went ahead without international recognition. The event took place following the fall of the then Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian, in the wake of a series of protests with a clear pro-European bent. March 21-22 – Nuclear Energy Summit. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the Belgian government will gather over 30 heads of state and government from across the world, as well as energy industry and civil society representatives. The summit seeks to promote nuclear energy in the face of the challenges posed by reducing the use of fossil fuels, enhance energy security and boost sustainable economic development. March 31 – Presidential elections in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian constitution, presidential elections must be held on the last Sunday in March of the fifth year of the presidential term of office. However, it is uncertain whether they will go ahead given they are illegal under martial law, in effect since the start of Russia's invasion of the country in 2022. A lack of funds and the Ukrainian people's opposition to holding elections in wartime are important factors. March 31 – Local elections in Turkey. The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition, is hoping to maintain control of the key municipalities it won in 2019. They include the capital, Ankara, Istanbul and other major cities. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election and the retention of the parliamentary majority in the elections of 2023 have prompted his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to try to make up ground at municipal level. April 7 – 30th anniversary of the genocide in Rwanda. The deaths of the presidents of Burundi and Rwanda in a plane crash provided the trigger for a campaign of organised and systematic extermination of members of the Tutsi population at the hands of Hutu extremists that would last 100 days. On July 15th, 1994, the Rwandan Patriotic Front established a transitional government of national unity in Kigali that would put an end to the genocide. Between 500,000 and 1 million people are estimated to have been murdered. April-May – General elections in India. Despite growing illiberal tendencies, the "world's biggest democracy" goes to the polls in April and May. The current prime minister, Narendra Modi, is aiming for a third term against an opposition that is more united than ever under the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). May 2 – Local elections in the United Kingdom. Elections will take place for local councils and mayors in England, including London and the combined authority of Greater Manchester. The elections will be seen as an indicator of the level of support both for the Labour Party and for the Conservatives ahead of general elections scheduled for January 2025. May 5 – General elections in Panama. Panamanian society will elect new representatives for the presidency, National Assembly, mayoralty and other local representatives. The elections will take place against a backdrop of marked polarisation and rising social tension, exacerbated by issues relating to domestic security, political disputes and the management of natural resources. May 19 – Presidential and legislative elections in the Dominican Republic. The current president, Luis Abinader, leader of the Modern Revolutionary Party, is seeking re-election in a vote in which most opposition parties will unite under the Opposition Alliance Rescue RD. Territorial, migration and economic tensions with neighbouring Haiti will be central issues during the election campaign.June – Presidential elections in Mauritania. The current president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, will seek re-election after four years of business as usual following the departure in 2019 of the former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who today faces multiple corruption charges. The winner of the elections will have to deal with rising social tension, as well as geopolitical tensions across the region. June 2 – General and federal elections in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum, the official shortlisted presidential candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), is the clear favourite against the main opposition candidate from the Broad Front for Mexico, formed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Voters will not only elect the president and the government, but also senators and federal deputies, as well as thousands of state and/or municipal officials in 30 of the 32 federal entities. June 6-9 – Elections to the European Parliament. Voting will take place simultaneously in the 27 countries that form the European Union. Some of the major questions are how far populist and far-right parties will advance, how much clout the traditional social democrat and conservative families will wield and the possible alliances that might form for the subsequent selection of key European posts. June 9 – Federal elections in Belgium. Coinciding with the Belgian presidency of the European Union, the country will hold federal, European and regional elections on the same day. One of the most significant issues will be how well the far-right party Vlaams Belang fares. It is aiming for a considerable increase in its support to test the resistance of the cordon sanitaire that has excluded it from power until now. June 13-15 – 50th G-7 summit in Italy. Savelletri, a small town in the Italian region of Puglia, will be the venue for a new meeting of the G7. The summit will tackle the main geopolitical challenges on the global stage and their impact on the international economy, along with other crucial issues on Italy's agenda, such as immigration and relations with Africa. June 20 – World Refugee Day. The number of forcibly displaced people hit all-time highs in 2023. There are refugees and internally displaced persons due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the numerous conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the impacts of climate change. During that week in June, the UNHCR will release its annual report on the global trends in forced displacement. First half of 2024 – Deployment of an international mission to Haiti. Kenya will lead the deployment of a security contingent with the participation of other countries. The goal is to tackle the gang violence in Haiti that is causing a major security and governance crisis. In October 2023, following a request from the secretary general and Haitian prime minister, the United Nations Security Council authorised a multinational security support mission for a period of one year. First half of 2024 – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) Summit. India will host a new meeting of this strategic forum for the Indo-Pacific region formed by Australia, India, Japan and the United States to address common issues regarding trade, critical technologies, human rights and climate change. July – 24th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Kazakhstan holds the yearly rotating chairmanship of the main regional forum in Central Asia for security, economic and political affairs, made up of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The priorities of the Kazakh chairmanship focus on matters of security and regional unity, as well as economic development and regional trade. Belarus is expected to join the organisation this year. July 1 – Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of the year, amid tension with the European Commission and Parliament over its failures to comply with EU law. July 8-18 – High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development. World leaders and representatives will meet in New York to follow up and review the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as present Voluntary National Reviews on the SDGs. The theme will be "Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions". July 9-11 – NATO Summit. Washington will be the venue for the NATO summit, where the presentation of a security strategy for the southern flank is expected, in response to the mandate arising out of the Vilnius summit in 2023. In addition, 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO. July 26-August 11 – Summer Olympic Games in Paris. France will host the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, the world's main sporting event, which is held every four years. It affords the hosts a good opportunity to kick-start an economy that has stagnated in recent years. August – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Rwanda. The incumbent president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, who has been in the post since 2000, is running for re-election after three successive ballots in which he has polled over 90% of the votes. September – Parliamentary elections in Austria. The burning question is whether the conservatives (ÖVP) and the greens (Die Grünen) will be able to repeat their current government coalition or whether the results of the populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the social democrats of the SPÖ will offer alternative majorities. September 22-23 – UN Summit of the Future. Based on the "Our Common Agenda" report presented by UN Secretary General António Guterres in 2021, on multilateralism and international cooperation, this high-level event aims to accelerate the fulfilment of existing international commitments and tackle emerging challenges and opportunities. The culmination of this effort will be the creation of a Pact for the Future negotiated and endorsed by the participating countries. September 24 – General Debate of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. A yearly event that brings together the world's leaders to assess the current state of their national policies and their world views. September 26-27 – 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa case. Mexico will mark the 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa (or Iguala) case, one of the biggest human rights scandals in the country's recent history. Still unsolved, the case involved the forced disappearance of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers' College, Guerrero state. October – 16th BRICS Summit. Kazan in Russia will be the venue for the summit of the new BRICS, now expanded to 11 countries, adding impetus to Moscow's efforts to demonstrate that the country is not isolated despite the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. October 1 – 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. It is 75 years since Mao Zedong founded the People's Republic of China. The event marked the end of the civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang that had broken out immediately after the surrender of Japan and the dissolution of the Second United Front between the two political forces during the Second Sino-Japanese War. October 6 – Municipal elections in Brazil. The elections will be a good gauge of the level of support for the Workers' Party and the parties that back President Lula, as well as of the advance, or otherwise, of Bolsonaro-linked candidates. In the cities where a second round of voting is required, it will take place on October 27. October 9 – General and regional elections in Mozambique. President Filipe Nyusi will end his second and final presidential term. According to the country's constitution, he cannot stand again. His party, the Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), which has been in power for decades, must find another candidate. The next government will face various challenges, including political tension, an increase in jihadi terrorism and marked social exclusion. October 24 – International Day of Climate Action. The goal is to mobilise and raise awareness of the effects of climate change among society and governments across the world. It is a good moment to analyse the different agendas to fight climate change and the progress being made in the most polluting countries. October 27 – General elections in Uruguay. The Broad Front (FA), a centre-left party with strong ties to the trade unions and other social organisations, will compete for victory against the centre-right Multicolour Coalition, which is currently in power and has faced several corruption cases in recent months. November – APEC Summit. Peru will host a new meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which gathers 21 countries. The theme this year is "People. Business. Prosperity". November – COP29 Climate Change Conference. Azerbaijan will host the world's largest international summit dedicated to climate change in 2024. For the second consecutive year, it will be held in a country whose economy is dependent on fossil fuel production. November – 29th Ibero-American Summit. Ecuador will host the Ibero-American Summit of heads of state and government under the theme "Innovation, inclusion and sustainability". In parallel, the main cities of Latin America, Spain and Portugal will hold a "Meeting of Ibero-American Cities", the conclusions of which will be presented during the summit. November 4-8 – 12th World Urban Forum. Cairo will host the premier gathering on urban issues and human settlements organised by UN-Habitat. November 5 – Presidential elections in the United States. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is seeking re-election and, with the former president, Donald Trump, still to be confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee, the campaign promises to be highly polarised. The election calendar will influence Washington's foreign policy decisions. November 5 – General elections in Georgia. The ruling coalition Georgian Dream is looking for yet another term. The war in Ukraine has split the country again between those who seek deeper integration with the West and hope to join the European Union in the future and those who advocate normalising relations with Russia. November 11 – 20th anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat. The historic Palestinian leader and president of the Palestinian National Authority died 20 years ago in Paris. He played a crucial role in the Middle East peace process, which, along with Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. November 18-19 – G-20 summit in Brazil. Under the theme "Building a just world and sustainable planet", the main topics for discussion and debate at this meeting will include energy transition and development, reform of the global governance institutions, and the fight against inequality, hunger and poverty. December – Presidential elections in Algeria. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to run for re-election. The country faces several security challenges due to the instability in the Sahel and the rising tension with Morocco over the Western Sahara. It also plays a crucial role as a supplier of gas to Europe amid the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. December – General elections in South Sudan. The terms of the peace agreement of 2018, which put an end to an internal armed conflict lasting five years, established the forming of a government of national unity led by the current president, Salva Kiir, and his rival, the vice president, Riek Machar. Kiir has proposed holding free presidential elections in late 2024. December 7 – Presidential elections in Ghana. The elections are expected to be a two-horse race between Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice president of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), and the former president, John Dramani Mahama, the candidate of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). The country is facing its worst economic crisis of recent decades and major security challenges because of the geopolitical situation in the Sahel. Second half of 2024 – Presidential elections in Venezuela. The Chavistas and the opposition gathered under the umbrella of the Unitary Platform reached an agreement in Barbados on staging presidential elections that provides for the invitation of regional and international observers. The decision came as the United States announced the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan gas and oil in October 2023. Pending – 53rd Pacific Islands Forum. Tonga is to host a new meeting of the main discussion forum spanning the region of Oceania, which brings together the interests of 18 states and territories on matters of climate change, the sustainable use of maritime resources, security and regional cooperation. It is a geographical space of growing interest to China and the United States, which have begun a diplomatic race to draw some of these countries and territories into their spheres of influence. Pending – 44th ASEAN Summit. Laos will host a new meeting of Southeast Asia's main regional forum, which brings together 10 countries. The theme this time is "Enhancing connectivity and resilience". Pending – AI Safety Summit. France will host the second meeting of this international summit whose goal is to foster work and initiatives to tackle the risks posed by artificial intelligence. The first event, held in London in 2023, resulted in the Bletchley Declaration, which advocated greater international cooperation to address the challenges and risks associated with artificial intelligence. Pending – 33rd Arab League Summit. Bahrein will host a fresh meeting of the main political organisation gathering the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, food and energy security issues, and the regional impacts of the war in Ukraine will be some of the main topics of discussion and debate. Pending – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka. The social tension in the country, mired in a deep economic crisis that has led to an International Monetary Fund rescue, has increased in recent months and is expected to intensify throughout the electoral process. Pending – General elections in Chad. Chad's transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who came to power in April 2021 via a military junta following the death of his father, Idriss Déby, promised the staging of free elections in late 2024. The country is facing a serious food and security crisis. Pending – 3rd Summit for Democracy. South Korea will be the host of this US-promoted summit, which since 2021 has gathered heads of government and leaders from civil society and the private sector. Its goal is to address the challenges and opportunities facing democracies in the 21st century on matters relating to democratic governance, safeguarding human rights and fighting corruption. Pending – General and regional elections in South Africa. The African National Congress (ANC), in power since the first free and general elections in 1994, is looking to stay there, although the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, could pull off a surprise. The country faces countless challenges, particularly in matters of security thanks to soaring crime rates, a major energy crisis and high unemployment. Pending – Presidential elections in Tunisia. They will be the first elections since the power grab by the Tunisian president, Kaïs Saied, in 2021 and the return to authoritarianism of the only country that appeared to have consolidated democracy following the Arab Spring of 2010-2011. Saied has already announced he will not allow the presence of international election observers. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2023/299/enAll the publications express the opinions of their individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIDOB as an institution

Text finalised on December 15th, 2023. This document is the result of collective reflection on the part of the CIDOB research team.Coordinated and edited by Carme Colomina, it includes contributions from Inés Arco, Anna Ayuso, Ana Ballesteros, Pol Bargués, Moussa Bourekba, Víctor Burguete, Anna Busquets, Javier Carbonell, Carmen Claudín, Francesc Fàbregues, Oriol Farrés, Agustí Fernández de Losada, Marta Galceran, Blanca Garcés, Seán Golden, Berta Güell, Julia Lipscomb, Bet Mañé, Ricardo Martínez, Esther Masclans, Óscar Mateos, Sergio Maydeu, Pol Morillas, Diego Muro, Francesco Pasetti, Héctor Sánchez, Reinhard Schweitzer, Antoni Segura, Cristina Serrano, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Alexandra Vidal and Pere Vilanova.  2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets. The elections held in more than 70 countries will serve as a stress test for the democratic system, and the impact of the multiple conflicts stoking global instability will shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights.The erosion of international norms is more acute than ever, and events become more unpredictable. 2024 begins wide open, marked by an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world, with hanging interests and alliances in issues such as geopolitical competition, green and digital transitions, or international security. The economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024: economic growth will be weak, and China's downturn will reverberate in emerging economies, in a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar. 2024 will be a year of ballots and bullets, a stress test both for the democratic system and for the multiple conflicts stoking global instability. We still face a world in disarray, in upheaval and in dispute. This time, however, any analysis hangs on the huge question mark of the intense series of elections that will shape the coming year. With all-out hostilities in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan or Yemen, we are seeing the most active conflicts of any time since the end of the Second World War. How the various armed conflicts and the outcome of the more than 70 elections marked on the calendar impact one another will set the geopolitical agenda for the coming months.There are elections that can turn the course of a war. The political fallout of the brutal Israeli offensive in Gaza or the stalemate on the Ukraine front also depend on the presidential race in the United States. The cracks in transatlantic unity and the increasingly direct accusations of double standards in the West's loyalties are not unrelated to what happens in the United States on November 5th, 2024. A return of Donald Trump to the White House would bring a drastic shift in the power relations and Washington's position in each of these conflicts, from weapons' supplies to the Ukrainian government or the support for Israel, to confrontation with Russia and China.Yet it is not only about the future of US democracy; over 4 billion people will go to the polls in more than 70 countries. The European Union (EU), India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela or Senegal, for instance: major actors that wield demographic or geopolitical clout will mark a year of unprecedented electoral intensity and shape a world in the throes of a global power shift and a clear regression in terms of humanitarianism and fundamental rights. More elections do not mean more democracy, however. We live in an age of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and extremely sophisticated manipulation that threatens the integrity of the ballot box. Hybrid systems are gaining ground, and it remains to be seen whether the cycle of elections in 2024 will signal a moment of deep degradation for democracy or a moment of resistance.The sensation of disorder is not new, nor even its quickening pace. But every year the erosion of current international norms is more marked, and events become more unpredictable. The world is increasingly decentralised, diversified and multidimensional. This "multiplex order", as Amitav Acharya described it in 2017, is cementing, because everything is happening simultaneously. And yet this reshaping of the world is still wide open because several struggles are playing out at once. 1. More conflict, more impunity2023 has been one of the most conflictive years in the world since the end of World War II. In just twelve months, political violence has increased by 27%. It grew in intensity and frequency. The war in Gaza brought 2023 to a close, with over 17,000 dead accounted for so far, warnings from the United Nations of the risk of humanitarian collapse and genocide of the Palestinian population trapped in the Strip, and the standoff between the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the UN secretary general, António Guterres, to try to secure a ceasefire. In this ongoing crisis of the liberal order and amid discussion over the validity of international law, Israel has dealt a severe blow to the credibility of the United Nations. The Security Council has become an instrument of paralysis; a pincer in the service of the interests of old powers that have led Guterres to publicly acknowledge his frustration and sense of impotence. A politically weakened United Nations clings to its humanitarian action on the ground to try to make the difference between life and death. At least 130 UN humanitarian workers have lost their lives in Gaza since October 7th, the highest number of UN fatalities in a conflict in its history. 2023 has been a violent year. It is estimated that 1 in 6 people in the world have been exposed to conflict in the last twelve months. The sense of impunity and disregard for international law has escalated. Not only in Gaza. The entrenchment of the war in Ukraine; the expulsion of the ethnic Armenian population from Nagorno Karabakh; or the succession of coups in six African countries in the last 36 months are a clear illustration of this moment of "deregulation of the use of force", which has been crystallising over years of erosion of international norms. And if in late 2023 we saw the departure of the international troops from the G5 Sahel deployed to Burkina Faso and Niger, as had already occurred the previous year with the expulsion of the French forces from Mali, in 2024 it will be the United Nations mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) that will have to leave the country before February 29th. Human Rights Watch has called the withdrawal a "catastrophic abdication" because it increases the risk of large-scale atrocities and abuses in a scenario of civil war, ethnic cleansing and famine that has forced more than 7 million people to flee their homes, making Sudan the country with the highest number of internally displaced persons in the world.And yet the international struggle to curtail impunity will be equipped with new tools in 2024. As of January 1st, the Ljubljana - The Hague Convention on International Cooperation in the Investigation and Prosecution of the Crime of Genocide, Crimes against Humanity, War Crimes and other International Crimes could be signed (and ratified) by the United Nations member states that wish to join. It is the primary treaty for fighting impunity for international crimes and facilitates cooperation among states in the judicial investigation of these crimes, it ensures reparation for victims and streamlines extradition. At the same time, the UN is also drafting a Convention on crimes against humanity with the aim of creating a treaty that is binding in international law, especially in a climate marked by an increase in these crimes in countries like Myanmar, Ukraine, Sudan or Ethiopia. The United Nations General Assembly will assess the progress of the negotiations in autumn 2024. It will all coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Rwanda genocide.In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, for war crimes in Ukraine, to no effect so far. But should Putin decide to attend the next G20 summit in Brazil in November 2024, it would present a challenge to the host country since, unlike last year's host India, Brazil is a party to the Rome Statute of 1998, the international treaty that led to the creation of the ICC. While President Lula da Silva initially said Putin would not be arrested if he attends the summit, he later rowed back, stating that the decision would fall to the Brazilian justice system and not the government. Despite the pessimism these treaties might produce, in recent months we have seen how, following the Azerbaijani military offensive in Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia signed the ICC's Rome Statute in November, acquiring member status as of February 2024. In addition, in late 2023 South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, the Comoros and Djibouti called for an International Criminal Court investigation into war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Palestine. In November 2023, the French judicial authorities issued an international arrest warrant for the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad – rehabilitated back into the Arab League the same year, more than a decade after being thrown out – and for several of his generals over the use of chemical weapons against their own people in 2013.2. Democracy under scrutinyMore than 4 billion people will go to the polls in 76 countries, which amounts to nearly 51% of the world's population. While most of the people in these countries will vote in full or flawed democracies, one in four voters will take part in ballots in hybrid and/or authoritarian regimes. In countries such as Russia, Tunisia, Algeria, Belarus, Rwanda or Iran the leaderships will use these elections to try to tighten their grip on power and gain legitimacy in the eyes of their citizens, while the other half of the electorate will exercise their right to vote in countries that have undergone democratic erosion or displayed illiberal tendencies in recent years, like the United States or India.The close of 2023 saw the inauguration of the "anarcho-capitalist" Javier Milei as Argentina's president, confirming the deep crisis of traditional parties and the rise of radical agendas, from Nayib Bukele's aggressively punitive approach in El Salvador ―who will seek re-election in 2024―, to Popular Renewal bursting onto the electoral scene in Peru, following the party's refoundation by the current mayor of Lima, Rafael López Aliaga. They are extreme responses to the various political, economic and security crisis situations. In Europe, there were mixed results at the polls, with victory for the Polish opposition, on one hand, and a win for the Islamophobic Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, on the other. The rapid succession of elections in 2024 will be decisive in determining whether the protest, fragmentation and rise of political extremism that have transformed democracies worldwide are reinforced or whether the system weathers the storm.The votes of women and young people will be key in this test of democracy. They were in Poland, punishing the reactionary polices of the Law and Justice Party (PiS). In Brazil or Austria, for example, men's support of far-right forces is 16 percentage points higher than that of women. In Mexico, the ballot in June 2024 will elect a woman as the country's president for the first time in its history. The two candidates are Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of the capital, for the ruling leftist party Morena, and Xóchitl Gálvez, for the opposition coalition Broad Front for Mexico, which brings together the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), among others. In the United States, the mobilisation of young Latinos will be particularly important. More than 4.7 million young Hispanics have obtained the right to vote in the last few years and they will play a significant role in key states like Nevada or Arizona. While this cohort tends to have a progressive stance and leanings, their view of the dominant parties is complex: questions of identity, discrimination or racism colour their relationships with both the Democrats and the Republicans and they reject political identification, reinforcing the idea that polarisation in the United States is more apparent among politicians than among their voters. Despite that, the fear of unfair elections has increased dramatically (from 49% in 2021 to 61% in 2023). Although US voters still perceive economic inequality as the main threat (69%), probably the greatest challenge in this election race is the presence of Donald Trump, not only because his immediate future is in the hands of the courts but also because if he does become the Republican presidential nominee, it will mean that the party has decided to place its future in the hands of the man who tried to overturn the results of the election four years ago and who the Congress committee to investigate the storming of the Capitol on January 6th, 2020, accused of "insurrection". January will see the start of the state primaries and caucuses. But with the final nominees still to be decided, according to the polls the scenario of an electoral contest between two candidates approaching or in their eighties currently favours Trump. Meanwhile, the date of the former president's trial can get dangerously close to the Super Tuesday, scheduled for March 5, the day on which 13 states vote in the Republican primaries.An investigation by The Guardian with the University of Chicago found that 5.5% of Americans, or 14 million people, believe that the use of force is justified to restore Donald Trump to the presidency, while 8.9% of Americans, or 23 million people, believe that force is justified to prevent him from being president. It is not an isolated trend. The risk of political instability and violence related to electoral processes is on the rise, as the Kofi Annan Foundation confirms.The future of the European Union, which is facing the winter with two wars on its doorstep, will also be decided at the ballot box. Apart from the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held from June 6th to 9th, 2024, 12 member states are also going to the polls. The general elections in Belgium, Portugal or Austria will be a good gauge of the strength of the far right, which is shaping up as one of the winners in the elections to the European Parliament. If the vote in 2019 spelled the end of the grand coalition that had guaranteed social democrats and Christian democrats a majority in the chamber since the European Parliament's beginnings, the big question now is knowing just how far right the European Union will swing.The latest voting intention projections show significant results for the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, home of extreme-right parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) and Alternative for Germany (AfD), which would win as many as 87 seats and surpass the other family on the radical right, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, which would go from 66 MEPs at present to 83. Despite the loss of seats for the traditional forces, the European People's Party (EPP) will remain the EU's main political family. So, one of the questions in 2024 is whether the EPP, led by the Bavarian Manfred Weber, would be ready to seek a possible majority with the radical right.The new majorities will be crucial to determining the future of European climate commitments, continued aid to Ukraine and urgent institutional reforms to facilitate the accession of future members. The EU must deliver on the promise of enlargement, but it is increasingly ill-prepared to carry it through.Four candidate countries to join the EU will hold elections in 2024: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, North Macedonia, and Georgia, as well as the question mark hanging over the staging of elections in Ukraine. According to its constitution, Ukraine should hold elections in March 2024. But under martial law, imposed in the wake of Russia's invasion in 2022, with part of the electorate reluctant to vote in such exceptional circumstances and 8 million Ukrainian refugees outside the country, Volodymyr Zelensky already said in November that it was not "the right time" to go to the polls.The United Kingdom too, in the throes of a political and social crisis could hold early general elections, which are scheduled for January 2025. With the Conservatives facing a challenging scenario against the Labour Party headed by Keir Starmer, the current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has the power to call the election at a time of his choosing at any point before then. Another issue is Libya. Since the United Nations plan to stage elections was postponed indefinitely in 2021, the inability to reach an agreement between the members of the two governments in the east and west of the country has put the possible date for elections back again, to 2024.There will be 16 elections in Africa, although only six of them will take place in countries considered to be democratic. Thirty years after the 1994 elections in South Africa, which marked the beginning of a democratic journey dominated since then by the African National Congress (ANC), the political landscape is beginning to change. The 2024 general elections may confirm the weakening of power and support for the ANC, while the main opposition parties seek alliances to present an alternative. In addition, the complicated economic situation, combined with other factors such as corruption, has led to the growing popularity of extremist parties.Also in India, the opposition presents itself more united than ever against Narendra Modi seeking to renew a third term in the spring. Boosted by nationalism, polarization, and disinformation, Modi will showcase the country's economic and geopolitical achievements. In 2023 India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world.Finally, it also remains to be seen what degree of participation the Venezuelan opposition might have in the presidential elections agreed with Nicolás Maduro for the second half of the year. For now, the internal panorama has become even more strained with the intensification of the territorial conflict with Guyana and the mobilization of the army.3. From information overload to social disconnection Societies are increasingly weary, overwhelmed by the saturation of content and exhausted by the speed of the changes they must assimilate. Political and electoral uncertainty and the multiple conflicts that will shape 2024 will only widen the distance between society, institutions and political parties. The number of people who say they "avoid" the news remains close to all-time highs and is particularly prominent in Greece (57%), Bulgaria (57%), Argentina (46%) or the United Kingdom (41%). The main reasons? The excessive repetition of certain news stories and the emotional impact they can have on the population's mental health. In particular, according to the Reuters Institute, this fatigue is prompted by issues such as the war in Ukraine (39%), national politics (38%) and news related to social justice (31%), with high levels of politicisation and polarisation. The echoes of the COVID-19 pandemic, images of war-related violence and the economic impact of such events on increasingly adverse living standards for the population have magnified this trend towards disconnection, aggravated by a sense of loneliness and polarisation. Yet this drop in news consumption has gone hand in hand with greater use of social networks: younger generations, for example, are increasingly likely to pay more attention to influencers than to journalists. At the same time, there is growing fragmentation on the social networks. The migration of users to Instagram or TikTok has also changed the way current affairs are consumed, with a prioritisation of leisure over news content. It is not just a voluntary rejection of information; this tendency to disconnect has also led to a reduction in the social participation and involvement in online debates that had characterised the Arab Springs, the MeToo movement or Black Lives Matter. Nearly half of open social networks users (47%) no longer participate in or react to the news. But, moreover, the disconnect from the news is also linked to the political disconnection and social shifts that have clearly altered electoral behaviour. Demographic changes related to technology use and an environment of constant volatility have also resulted in a drop in voter loyalty and that has contributed to the crisis of the traditional parties. The identity element of belonging to a party has changed among young people. Identification is built on stances on issues such as climate change, immigration, racism, women's or LGBTQIA+ rights or even the conflict between Israel and Palestine. Some 65% of American adults say they always or often feel exhausted when thinking about politics. According to the Pew Research Center, six out of ten Americans of voting age admit to having little or no confidence in the future of their country's political system. And this discontent extends to the three branches of government, the current political leaders and candidates for public office. When asked to sum up their feelings about politics in a word, 79% are negative or critical. The most frequently repeated words are "divisive", "corrupt", "chaos" or "polarised", and they complain that conflicts between Republicans and Democrats receive too much attention and there is too little attention paid "to the important issues facing the country". The paradox, however, is that this discontent has coincided with historically high levels of voter turnout over the last few years. The question is whether there will be a repeat of this in the presidential elections in November, especially when they reflect another element of generational disaffection: gerontocracy. The average age of global leaders is 62. In young people's view, the traditional political parties have failed to articulate a direct form of communication, increasing the sense of disconnection between society, politicians and institutions. In this context, a repeat of the Biden-Trump confrontation in 2024 would emphasize the extreme polarization between Republicans and Democrats in an electoral cycle considered risky. Abortion rights and security remain strong mobilization points for voters.Sometimes, however, the disconnection can be forced and in this case a news blackout becomes a weapon of repression and censorship or freedom of expression. Iran, India and Pakistan were the three countries with most new internet restrictions in the first half of 2023, and all three are holding elections in 2024. With the rise and consolidation of AI, disinformation will be an additional challenge in this "super election year". The rapid progress of AI, particularly generative AI, may cast an even longer shadow over trust in information and electoral processes. The refinement of deepfakes, quick and easy creation of images, text, audios files or propaganda by AI and a growing dependence on social media to check and research facts form a breeding ground for disinformation at time when there is still no effective control of these technologies. Perhaps that is why the Merriam-Webster dictionary's word of the year for 2023 is "authentic". With the prelude of "post-truth" in 2016, technology's capacity to manipulate facts has no precedent, from the authenticity of an image to the writing of an academic work. Hence more than half of social media users (56%) say they doubt their own capacity to identify the difference between what is real and fake in news on the internet.4. Artificial intelligence: explosion and regulation 2023 was the year that generative AI burst into our lives; the year that ChatGPT was presented to society, which in January, just two months after its launch, already had 100 million users. In August, it hit 180 million. Yet the revolution also brought a new awareness of the risks, acceleration and transformation involved in a technology that aspires to match, or even improve or surpass human intelligence. That is why 2024 will be a crucial year for AI regulation. The foundations have already been laid. It only remains to review the different initiatives under way. The most ambitious is that of the European Union, which is resolved to become the first region in the world to equip itself with a comprehensive law to regulate artificial intelligence and lead the coming leap forward. The EU has opted to categorise the risks (unacceptable, high, limited or minimal) posed by the use of AI systems and will require a "fundamental rights impact assessment" be carried out before a "high-risk" AI system can be put on the market. The agreement reached in December will be ratified in the first quarter of 2024 and give way to a period of two years before its full implementation in 2026.Almost at the eleventh hour too, on December 1st of 2023 the G7 agreed international guidelines for artificial intelligence developers and users, particularly for generative AI, mentioning the need to introduce measures to deal with disinformation. G7 leaders see it as one of the chief risks because of possible manipulation of public opinion on the eve of a year of global election overdrive.But the debate on governance goes hand in hand with a geopolitical race to lead technological innovation and, unlike the EU, in the case of the United States and China that also means development of its military application. Both countries are looking to bolster their leadership. The first international AI safety summit, called by the British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, became a meeting point of major global powers – both public and private; techno-authoritarian or open – trying to regulate or influence the debates on regulation under way. A second in-person summit will take place in Seoul and a third one in Paris, both in 2024 . For now, the "Bletchley Declaration" is on the table, a document signed by 28 countries that gathers the pledge to tackle the main risks of artificial intelligence, an agreement to examine tech companies' AI models before they are launched and a deal to assemble a global panel of experts on artificial intelligence inspired by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change (IPCC) . In addition, at the US Embassy in London, 31 countries signed a parallel (non-binding) agreement to place limits on the military use of AI. China, for its part, continues to move towards its goal of reaching 70% self-sufficiency in critical technologies by 2025, while clearly increasing its presence in the main tech-related international standardisation bodies.To add to this flurry of regulatory activity, a Global Digital Compact will be agreed at the Summit of the Future in September 2024, organised by the United Nations. This agreement will create a framework of multi-actor and multisectoral cooperation among governments, private enterprise and civil society, which should lay down a set of common rules to guide digital development in the future. The application of human rights online, the regulation of AI and digital inclusion will be some of the main topics under discussion.This need to regulate artificial intelligence will also be heightened in the coming months by a growing democratisation of AI tools, which will bring greater integration into different professional sectors. The focus on a responsible AI will be stepped up locally (more cities deploying AI strategies or regulatory frameworks), nationally and transnationally. As AI takes on a more important role in decision-making throughout society safety, trustworthiness, equity and responsibility are crucial. The latest annual McKinsey report on the use of generative AI tools says that a third of companies surveyed had begun to use these types of programs. The tech and communications sector (40%), as well as financial services (38%) and the legal profession (36%), are the frontrunners in their use and application. Yet the same survey also states that precisely the industries relying most heavily on the knowledge of their employees are those that will see a more disruptive impact of these technologies. Whether that impact is positive or negative is still unclear. Unlike other revolutions that had an effect on the labour market, it is white-collar workers who are likely to feel most vulnerable in the face of generative AI. A European Central Bank study, meanwhile, says that AI has not supplanted workers, but it has lowered their wages slightly, especially in jobs considered low and medium-skilled, which are more exposed to automatisation, and particularly among women.In the midst of this regulatory acceleration of the digital revolution, 2024 will also be the year when the European Union deploys, to it full potential, the new legislation on digital services and markets to place limits and obligations on the monopolistic power of the major platforms and their responsibility in the algorithmic spread of disinformation and harmful content. As of January 1st, it will be compulsory for Big Tech to abide by these regulations, with potential fines for breaches of as much as 6% of global turnover, according to the DSA (Digital Services Act) and between 10% and 20% of global turnover, according to the DMA (Digital Markets Act). The flow of international data will also increase in 2024, particularly transfers between the EU and the United States, by virtue of the new Data Privacy Framework approved in July 2023. We will also see fresh scrutiny from NGOs and digital rights groups to ascertain the legality of these transfers and whether they respect individual privacy.5. Economic fallout and debt sustainabilityThe economic consequences of the succession of crises of recent years will be more visible in 2024, especially the impact of the interest rate hikes to counter the biggest spike in inflation in 40 years following the energy crisis of 2022. Meanwhile, tougher financing conditions will limit fiscal policy, following the rapid rise in borrowing to tackle COVID-19 and the impact of the war in Ukraine.In a climate like this, growth will be slow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) does not expect inflation to return to the target of most central banks until 2025, which augurs high interest rates for a long time yet, especially if there is a strain on oil prices again against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. The IMF's growth forecast for 2024 is 2.9%, much the same as the estimate for 2023 and below pre-pandemic growth rates.Economies, however, will cool unevenly. The United States appears to have dodged recession thanks to the strength of its labour market and of fiscal incentives, which means it is likely to have a softer landing. Industrial relocation policies, like the Inflation Reduction Act, record corporate profits after Covid and the extraordinary loss of purchasing power caused by inflation are some of the ingredients to explain the resurgence of the US labour movement, without precedent since the 1970s. Its success may spread to other sectors and economies with strained labour markets. Thus, a fall in inflation and an increase in salaries in 2024 could provide some economic relief.In the European Union, there will be greater scrutiny of public accounts, especially those of countries with least financial wiggle room like Italy, following a sharp increase in borrowing to tackle the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine, owing to financing conditions and the entry into force of the reform of the EU's fiscal rules. "Fiscal discipline" will also loom large in the negotiation of the EU's new budget framework (MFF), where its greatest wishes (support for Ukraine, backing for industrial policy, the green transition and an increase in appropriations for defence, migration or the Global Gateway) will come face to face with reality (lack of resources or agreement to increase them). The adoption of the European Economic Security Strategy and the outcome of the antidumping investigation into Chinese subsidies on electric vehicles will go a long way to determining whether, on the economic front, the EU opts to align with the United States in its strategic competition with China or tries to be a champion of a reformed globalisation.It will also be necessary to keep a close eye on the development of China, which is facing its lowest economic growth in 35 years, not counting the Covid years, weighed down by its imbalances, particularly as far as an excessive accumulation of debt and dependence on the property sector are concerned. The change in the rules of globalisation prompted by US strategic competition will also hamper its exports and capacity to attract capital in a climate in which the Chinese leadership prioritises economic security over growth. With unfavourable demographics, the country has yet to establish domestic consumption as a motor for growth.Emerging economies will feel the force of China's slump, especially those with greater trade and financial dependence. The success of the Belt and Road Initiative in terms of investment volume has been overshadowed by repayment difficulties in up to 60% of the loans, which along with criticism has led Xi Jinping to announce a new phase of investments with smaller projects. In 2024, China's new role as a lender of last resort and its participation in the debt restructuring processes of countries in distress will have growing importance in how it is perceived and in its geoeconomic influence over the Global South.A large number of emerging countries are in a delicate fiscal situation. In a climate of rapid tightening of financial conditions and a strong dollar, that also exacerbates their external vulnerability. While some countries such as Mexico, Vietnam or Morocco are capitalising on the reconfiguration of trade and value chains (nearshoring), most emerging economies are likely to be adversely affected by a scenario of greater economic fragmentation. According to the WTO, trade in goods between hypothetical geopolitical blocs – based on voting patterns in the United Nations – has grown between 4% and 6% slower than trade within these blocs since the invasion of Ukraine.In this climate of scant monetary and fiscal space, the buffer for cushioning another crisis is extremely thin, which could exacerbate market volatility and nervousness in the face of episodes of uncertainty. The main focus of attention may shift from Ukraine to the Middle East, since shocks from oil are felt more broadly across the economy than those from natural gas. This could directly affect the EU and Spain, which are particularly dependent because they import over 90% of the oil they consume. In addition, strategic oil reserves in the United States have not been so low since 1983 and the few countries with capacity to increase crude production (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Russia) may not be inclined to do so without significant political concessions.6. South(s) and North(s)In our outlook for 2023 we announced the consolidation of the Global South as a space of confrontation and leadership and pointed to the strategic presence of India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Brazil. In 2024, this reconfiguration will go a step further. The contradictions and fragmentations of this dichotomous North-South approach will become more apparent than ever. The Global South has established itself as a key actor in the pushback against the West on anti-imperialist grounds or over double standards. The most symbolic image of this moment of geopolitical expansion will come in October 2024, when the BRICS bloc meets in Russia to formalise its expansion. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are welcoming Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran into the fold. Together they account for 46% of the world's population, 29% of global GDP and include two of the three biggest oil producers in the world. Thus, the BRICS will have an even more powerful voice, although, inevitably, it may also mean more internal contradictions and conflicting agendas. The election of Javier Milei as the president of Argentina, who has confirmed his decision not to join the BRICS, also feeds into the idea of this clash of agendas and interests in the Global South. Saudi Arabia and Iran vie for strategic influence in the Persian Gulf. India and China have their own border disputes in the Himalayas. The Global South will continue to gain clout, but it will also be more heterogeneous. Other than a shared postcolonial rhetoric, its action is extremely diverse.The Global South is multiregional and multidimensional and comprises different political regimes. But it is also a geographical space where global trade flows are consolidating as a result of reglobalisation. The latest WTO annual report confirms that, while advanced economies are still key players in world trade, they are no longer dominant. However, , if in 2023 we spoke of the geopolitical acceleration of the "others", with India as the symbol of this potential leadership of the Global South, in 2024 it will be Latin America that tries to take a central role. Brazil will host the G20, while Peru will be the venue for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.And as we move beyond dichotomies, a deep internal crack may also appear in the Global North should the return of Donald Trump to the White House materialise. Transatlantic distance dominates a new framework of relations that is more transactional than a conventional alliance. Washington and Brussels' differences will worsen in 2024 when the United States asks the European Union to increase its contributions to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and internal divisions among the member states prevent it. The second half of 2024 will be particularly tense, when Hungary – the most reluctant EU country when it comes to military aid and Ukraine's possible accession – takes over the EU's rotating presidency. It will also be paradoxical if this rift in the Global North widens because of the Ukraine war. Precisely, in 2023, the Ukrainian conflict was the mortar that cemented transatlantic unity, and confronted the EU and the United States with the limits of their ability to influence in the face of a Global South that questioned the double standards of the West. In 2024, however, the war in Ukraine may increase the distance between Washington and Brussels.Despite this logic of confrontation, the geopolitical short-sightedness of binarism is increasingly misplaced. And yet, it is difficult to overcome. The fact that both the United States and the European Union conceive their relations with Latin America solely as a space for resource exploitation and geopolitical dispute with China, is part of that short-sightedness. For the moment, the repeated failure of the negotiations over an EU-Mercosur agreement are dashing South America's hopes of being able to boost its trade presence in the European single market. Talks will resume in the first half of 2024, after Paraguay takes over the Mercosur presidency from Brazil.7. Backsliding on international commitmentsThe year 2023 left international cooperation in a shambles. Employing increasingly blunt language, António Guterres declared that the world is "woefully off-track" in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which reached the halfway point to their 2030 deadline in 2023. The coming year must prove whether the international community is still capable of and wishes to agree on coordinated responses to common global problems through organs of collective governance. It will not be easy. We face an acceleration of the ecological crisis, record migration and forced displacements and a clear regression of the gender equality agenda.For the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is projecting that global demand for oil, coal and natural gas will reach a high point this decade, based only on current policy settings, according to the World Energy Outlook 2023. In the short term, fossil fuel-producing countries are ignoring the climate warnings and plan to increase the extraction of coal, oil and gas. The choice of an oil state, the United Arab Emirates, as the host of a climate summit and the appointment of a fossil fuels executive as president was a bad omen at the very least.And yet, COP28 in Dubai has been the first to have managed to produce a text that explicitly recognizes the need to "leave behind" fossil fuels: oil, coal and gas, as the main culprits of the climate crisis. Although the final agreement has been celebrated as historic for referring to this need to initiate a transition to guarantee net zero emissions in 2050, the degree of ambition demonstrated is not sufficient to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Likewise, while the creation of a Loss and Damage Fund to compensate the countries most affected by climate change is also a positive step, the initial collection of $700 million falls far short of what is necessary. Every year developing countries face $400 billion in losses linked to climate action.In this context, not only do we run the risk of exacerbating climate impacts; we shall also see a rise – more acutely than ever – of social and political tensions between governments and societies over the exploitation of resources. In Europe there is growing discontent with the EU's climate transition policies and the rise of Eurosceptic and radical right forces in the European Parliament elections of June 2024 will raise this pressure still further. The flurry of regulatory activity on climate and industrial matters is increasing the politicisation of this issue and stoking social unrest in certain member states. Italy, Poland, the Netherlands and certain sectors in Germany, particularly the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), are trying to limit the EU's ambitions on climate action. The arrival of a new government in Sweden, backed by the radical right, has slammed the brakes on the climate commitments led by one of the countries that has most contributed to EU environment policies. A hypothetical return of Donald Trump to the White House would also shake again some of the limited domestic and international progress in this area.According to a poll carried out by Ipsos, while a large part of European households continues to put the environment before economic growth, this proportion is declining. If in 2019, 53% of households preferred to protect the environment, in 2022 the figure had fallen by 5 percentage points, despite the clear impact of climate phenomena. Yet the trend of "not in my back yard" is not limited to Europe. In late 2023, we saw the resistance of Panamanians against a mining contract extension. Some experts speak of a "clash of environmentalisms" to refer to the confrontation that arises between those who wish to protect their country's natural resources and do not want to see a deterioration in their ecosystems and the interests of governments seeking resources to fuel their energy transition. We might see the same in the European Union. In early 2024, the Critical Raw Minerals Act will enter into force. It aims to guarantee the supply of nickel, lithium, magnesium and other essential materials for the green transition and strategic industries that are vital for electric cars and renewable energies, military equipment and aerospace systems, as well as for computers and mobile phones. And with this in mind the EU means to revive the mining industry on the continent. It is a move that may trigger protests by ecologists in the EU in the coming months.UN member states are also expected to reach a global agreement to end plastic pollution in 2024. It will be an international legally binding treaty and is hailed as the most important multilateral environmental pact since the Paris Agreement, setting a plan of action to 2040.However, it is gender policies and migration policies that are most exposed to this radical wave that has transformed government agendas, particularly in the European Union and Latin America. While it is true that gender parity recovered to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, the rate of progress has slowed. At the present pace, it will take 131 years to reach full parity. Although the share of women hired for positions of leadership has increased steadily by approximately 1% a year globally over the last eight years, that trend was reversed in 2023, falling to 2021 levels.The emerging feminist foreign policies, which defined those countries with a clear commitment to promoting gender equality in international relations, have added four important losses in recent months: Sweden, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, and Argentina. The changes in government, together with the growing politicization and polarization of issues perceived as "feminist", have demonstrated the easy abandonment of these initiatives, dependent on the progressive orientations of the governments in power. Mexico, another of the countries that has adopted these policies, will face elections in June that will also mark the continuity or abandonment of its commitment to gender equality in foreign action. And, despite not having a feminist foreign policy, Trump's return to the White House could lead to the reinstatement of restrictive abortion policies and funding cuts against international NGOs that promote sexual and reproductive rights.Moreover, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) reports a resurgence of anti-feminist trends in countries like Croatia and Italy and notes sexist and homophobic speech on the part of European leaders such as Viktor Orbán, Andrzej Duda or Giorgia Meloni, who have justified attacks on women's and LGBTQIA+ rights, undermining years of efforts to secure progress in breaking up gender stereotypes. Although the EU Gender Action Plan III is valid until 2025, a change in Brussels would also dilute the commitments of one of the actors most involved in this area.On a more positive note, it will be interesting to follow, in 2024, the progress of the Convention against Crimes against Humanity, which the UN is developing, as feminist and civil society movements around the world will take this opportunity to try to codify the gender apartheid as a crime against humanity – especially due to the Taliban regime's continued discrimination and oppression of Afghan women, and the situation of Iranian women.European migration policies have also suffered a major setback. The EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which is set to move forward before the European elections in 2024, is a legitimisation of the EU's anti-immigration policies. The deal allows delays in registering asylum seekers, the introduction of second-rate border asylum procedures and extends detention time at the border. In short, it lowers standards and legalises what hitherto was unequivocally illegal.This looming agreement reflects the levels of polarisation and politicisation that set the tone of the European response to migration. And as we enter the run-up to the election campaign the migration debate will be even further to the fore in the coming months. It is, what's more, part of another, deeper process. The EU's externalisation policies have also fostered the stigmatisation of immigrants and refugees in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa).8. Humanitarian collapseWar and violence drove forced displacement worldwide to a new high estimated at 114 million people by the end of September 2023, according to UNHCR. The main drivers of these forced displacements were the war in Ukraine and conflicts in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, as well as drought, floods and insecurity blighting Somalia and a prolonged humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.In the first six months of 2023 alone, 1.6 million new individual asylum applications were made, the highest figure ever recorded. This is not an exceptional situation. The reignition of forgotten conflicts has increased levels of volatility and violence. In October 2023, over 100,500 people, more than 80% of the estimated 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh, fled to Armenia after Azerbaijan took control of the enclave. There were also thousands of displaced persons in northern Shan because of an escalation in fighting between the Myanmar armed forces and various armed groups. At the end of October 2023, nearly 2 million people were internally displaced in Myanmar, living in precarious conditions and in need of vital assistance. And the images of over 1 million Palestinians fleeing their homes because of the Israeli military offensive, after Hamas attack from October 7, illustrate the humanitarian crisis afflicting Gaza.This increase in the number of displaced persons and refugees, however, has not been accompanied by a boost in international aid. Close to 1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh must cope with declining international commitment. The United Nations reduced its food assistance and humanitarian aid to this group by one third in 2023. A lack of international funding considerably reduced assistance levels in 2023 and the World Food Programme was obliged to cut the size and scope of its food, monetary and nutritional assistance by between 30% and 50%. Some 2.3 billion people, nearly 30% of the global population, currently face a situation of moderate or severe food insecurity. Further rises in food prices in 2024 and the impact of adverse weather conditions on agricultural production may make the situation even worse still. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipates that a total of 105 to 110 million people will require food assistance at least until early 2024, with an increase in need in the regions of southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, and a net decrease in eastern Africa.Experts are pointing to the risk of a new rice crisis in 2024, as a result of India's export restrictions to try to cushion the effects of a drop in domestic production. The shock wave from the ban has also driven up the price of rice in Thailand and Vietnam, the second and third biggest exporters after India, which have seen prices rise by 14% and 22%, respectively. Added to that are the effects of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño, associated with heat and drought across the Pacific Ocean, which could harm production in 2024. Experts are currently warning that if India maintains the current restrictions, the world is headed for a repeat of the rice crisis of 2008.El Niño, which is set to continue to mid-2024, is usually associated with increased rainfall in certain areas of southern South America and the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. On the other hand, El Niño can also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia.The last episode of the phenomenon, in 2016, was the warmest year on record, with global heat records that have yet to be surpassed.Donor governments and humanitarian agencies must prepare for major assistance needs in multiple regions. The year 2023 has left us some indication of it: extreme drought in the Amazon and maritime traffic restrictions in the Panama Canal; forest fires in Bolivia and power cuts in Ecuador owing to low electricity production in over 80% of hydroelectric plants; the worst floods on record in northwest Argentina, which also caused landslides affecting over 6,000 people; and a devastating category 5 hurricane in Mexico that surprised the authorities and scientists, who failed to foresee the intensity of the phenomenon. 9. Securitisation vs. rightsThe conflict between security and fundamental rights has been a constant feature of 2023 and the electoral uncertainty of the coming months will only compound the urge to pursue heavy-handed policies and control. The public debate throughout Latin America, without exception, has been dominated by security, directly impacting other crises such as migration, which has affected the entire continent for a decade and in 2024 is expected to be even more intense. "Bukelism" has a growing number of fans. The new Argentine president, Javier Milei, has said he is an admirer of the hard-line polices of the Salvadoran president, Nayib Bukele. The election campaign in Ecuador was also coloured by the debate on security.The continent is fighting a new crime wave that has spilled into traditionally more stable countries that are now part of lucrative drug-trafficking routes, as is the case of Paraguay and Argentina. People trafficking, particularly the criminal exploitation of the Venezuelan migration crisis, has also grown throughout Latin America. Against this backdrop, the United Nations and Interpol have launched a joint initiative to combat human trafficking. It remains to be seen what impact the Venezuelan elections might have on this migration crisis, which has already led to over 7 million people leaving their homes since 2014.Moreover, increasing impunity has also brought a mounting risk of authoritarian inclinations on the part of governments in Latin America, with the militarisation of public security and an undermining of democracy across the continent. In the European Union too. For some time, the sense of vulnerability has been a political boon for certain forces in the EU. With the outbreak of war in Gaza, some European countries ramped up security for fear of terrorist attacks, going to the extreme of banning demonstrations in support of the Palestinian people, as in France. In this climate, the securitisation of social movements is also emerging as a strategy that will continue to gain prominence in 2024. More and more, democratic governments are stepping up the pressure on protest movements: fines, curbs on free speech or judicial persecution are shrinking the space for civil dissent. On this point, the EU has reached an agreement to legislate against strategic lawsuits that seek to discourage public participation or silence independent media (known as SLAPPs) which is set to be ratified before the end of the current legislative term.Finally, the debate on security and its impact on individual rights will also mark the months leading up to the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Civil rights groups have decried the French government's plans to use AI surveillance cameras to pick up real-time activity on the streets of the capital during the games. Technology is a crucial component of the transformation that security and conflict are undergoing. Drones have become a vital weapon for the resistance in Ukraine, and in the arsenal of Hamas in its October 7th attack on Israel. A United States in the midst of budget cuts is, however, poised to inject extra cash into the Pentagon in 2024 for the development of "electronic warfare" programmes.10. The decoupling of interests and valuesThere is a common thread in many of the previous points that connects an increasingly diverse and (dis)organised world through changing interests and alliances. In its 2023 Strategic Foresight Report, the European Commission acknowledges that the "battle of narratives" it used for so long as an argument in the geopolitical confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism is becoming obsolete. It goes further than the realisation that the West has lost the battle for the narrative in the Ukraine war and that its double standards in the face of global conflicts diminishes the EU's clout. Sudan is the clearest example of how the West can commit to wars it considers existential for the survival of its own values, such as the Ukraine one, while it ignores the genocide being carried out, with house-to-house murders, in the refugee camps of Darfur.The world has turned into a "battle of offers", shaping both public opinion and government action. There is a growing diversity of options and alliances. Thus far, hegemonic narratives are either challenged or no longer serve to make sense of the world. In this "unbalanced multipolarity", with medium-sized powers setting regional agendas, the major traditional powers are compelled to seek their own space. Global competition for resources to fuel the green and digital transitions accentuates this variable geometry of agreements and alliances still further. And the results of the series of elections in 2024 may ultimately reinforce this transformation. The United States' isolationist inclinations are real. Vladimir Putin will confirm his resilience at the polls, after dodging the effects of the international sanctions and building an economic apparatus to withstand a long war in Ukraine. In India, Narendra Modi's popularity remains intact and drives the dominance of his party. The election question sets the stage for a 2024 that begins wide open. The crisis of the liberal order, aggravated by the international reaction to the latest conflicts, and the erosion of multilateralism – with an explicit challenge to the United Nations – foster yet further this sensation of a dispersion of global power towards an assortment of dynamic medium-sized powers capable of helping to shape the international environment in the coming decades.A pivotal year begins to evaluate the resistance capacity of democratic systems long subdued to a profound erosion. We will be attentive to the outcome of the ballots and to the increasing unabashed actions of bullets, pressing the limits of impunity.CIDOB calendar 2024: 75 dates to mark on the agenda January 1 – Changeover in the United Nations Security Council. Algeria, Guyana, the Republic of South Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia start their terms as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, replacing Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates, whose terms end. January 1 – Dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh. The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist at the start of the year, after more than three decades of control over the territory. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to reintegrate this predominantly ethnic Armenian-populated enclave. The assault led the self-declared republic to announce its dissolution. January 1 – BRICS expansion. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will join Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa as full members of BRICS. Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, has finally ruled out his country's incorporation. January 1 – Belgian presidency of the Council of the European Union. Belgium takes over the rotating presidency of the Council from Spain, marking the end of this institutional cycle. The Belgian semester will hold until June 30. January 7 – Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. The vote will take place against a backdrop of deep political division in the country. This division led to mass demonstrations by the opposition at the end of 2023, calling for an interim government to oversee the elections. The current prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is looking to for another term after 15 years in power, while her main rival and leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Khaleda Zia, is currently under house arrest on charges of corruption. January 13 – General elections in Taiwan. For the first time since Taiwan became a democracy, three candidates are competing for the presidency after the opposition failed to form a common front: the current vice president Lai Ching-te, from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party; Hou You-yi from the Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei and leader of the Taiwan People's Party. The outcome of these elections will mark the course of Taiwan's policy towards China, with an eye on the United States, at a time of growing tension between Taipei and Beijing. January 14 – Inauguration of Bernardo Arévalo as president of Guatemala. To widespread surprise, the Seed Movement candidate won the 2023 elections. Since the vote was held, political and social tension in the country has been rising due to efforts by the Guatemalan public prosecutor's office to overturn the election results and prevent Arévalo from taking office. January 15-19 – World Economic Forum. An annual event that gathers major political leaders, senior executives from the world's leading companies, heads of international organisations and NGOs, and prominent cultural and social figures. This year's meeting will mainly focus on examining the opportunities provided by the development of emerging technologies and their impact on decision-making and international cooperation. January 15-20 – 19th Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement. Uganda will be the venue for the next summit of the 120 countries that make up this grouping of states. The theme for this edition is "Deepening cooperation for shared global affluence" and it is scheduled to tackle multiple global challenges of today with a view to fostering cooperation among the member states. January 21-23 – Third South Summit of G-77 + China. Uganda will host this forum looking to promote South-South cooperation, under the theme "Leaving no one behind". The 134 member states from Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean will focus on the areas of trade, investment, sustainable development, climate change and poverty eradication. February 4 – Presidential elections in El Salvador. Nayib Bukele, who heads the New Ideas party and currently holds the presidency of El Salvador, is shaping up as the clear favourite for re-election. The country has been in a state of emergency since March 2022, in response to the security challenges affecting the nation. February 8 – Presidential elections in Pakistan. Since Imran Khan's removal as prime minister in April 2022, Pakistan has been mired in political instability, deep economic crisis and rising violence on the part of armed groups. The elections will be supervised by a caretaker government after the expiry of the Pakistani parliament's five-year term in August 2023. February 14 – Presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia. Three candidates are competing to succeed the current president, Joko Widodo, who after two terms cannot stand for re-election. The next leader will face the challenges of boosting growth in an economy reliant on domestic consumption, driving the development of the tech industry and navigating pressure from China and the United States to protect their national interests. February 16-18 – 60th Munich Security Conference. Held every year, it is the leading independent forum on international security policy and gathers high-level figures from over 70 countries. Strengthening the rules-based international order, the impact of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, resisting revisionist tendencies or the security implications of climate change will be some of the main issues on this year's agenda. February 17-18 – African Union Summit. Ethiopia, which holds the presidency of the African Union, will be organising the summit. This year, it will address some of the numerous issues in Africa, including instability in the Sahel, growing global food insecurity, natural disasters on the continent or democratic backsliding. In addition, the tensions between Morocco and Algeria will be centre stage as both countries are vying for the presidency. February 25 – Presidential elections in Senegal. Following multiple waves of protests, the current president, Macky Sall, announced he would not be standing for a third term. It is the first time in the country's democratic history that a sitting president will not be standing in the elections. The need to ensure jobs for the country's young population will be one of the key issues in the election campaign. February 26-29 – Mobile World Congress. Barcelona hosts the world's biggest mobile phone event, gathering the leading international tech and communications companies. This edition will be devoted to 5G technology, connectivity, the promotion of human-centred artificial intelligence or the digital transformation, among other themes. March 1 – Parliamentary elections in Iran. With an eye on the succession of the ageing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranians will elect their representatives to the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts, the latter body in charge of electing the new supreme leader in the coming years. The elections will be marked by the escalation of tension in the Middle East and the deep economic and social crisis that has increased popular disaffection with the regime. March 8 – International Women's Day. Now a key date on the political and social calendar of many countries. Mass demonstrations have gained momentum in recent years, particularly in Latin America, the United States and Europe. The common goal is the struggle for women's rights and gender equality throughout the world. March 10 – Parliamentary elections in Portugal. The country faces a snap election after the institutional crisis triggered by the resignation of the socialist prime minister, António Costa. The former leader was the target of a judicial investigation over alleged corruption that directly involved several members of his government team. March 15-17 – Presidential elections in Russia. While Vladimir Putin is expected to secure re-election, maintaining his grip on power until 2030, Russia will go to the polls against a backdrop of multiple domestic security challenges. The Russian withdrawal from the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, the impact of the war in Ukraine, the failed Wagner uprising of June 2023 and the antisemitic disturbances in the North Caucus in October could force Putin to use the election calendar to embark on major a shakeup of the political and military leaderships. March 18 – 10th anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea. The annexation of Crimea by Russia, which had invaded the region some weeks earlier, was formalised via a referendum on Crimea's political status that went ahead without international recognition. The event took place following the fall of the then Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian, in the wake of a series of protests with a clear pro-European bent. March 21-22 – Nuclear Energy Summit. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the Belgian government will gather over 30 heads of state and government from across the world, as well as energy industry and civil society representatives. The summit seeks to promote nuclear energy in the face of the challenges posed by reducing the use of fossil fuels, enhance energy security and boost sustainable economic development. March 31 – Presidential elections in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian constitution, presidential elections must be held on the last Sunday in March of the fifth year of the presidential term of office. However, it is uncertain whether they will go ahead given they are illegal under martial law, in effect since the start of Russia's invasion of the country in 2022. A lack of funds and the Ukrainian people's opposition to holding elections in wartime are important factors. March 31 – Local elections in Turkey. The Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition, is hoping to maintain control of the key municipalities it won in 2019. They include the capital, Ankara, Istanbul and other major cities. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election and the retention of the parliamentary majority in the elections of 2023 have prompted his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) to try to make up ground at municipal level. April 7 – 30th anniversary of the genocide in Rwanda. The deaths of the presidents of Burundi and Rwanda in a plane crash provided the trigger for a campaign of organised and systematic extermination of members of the Tutsi population at the hands of Hutu extremists that would last 100 days. On July 15th, 1994, the Rwandan Patriotic Front established a transitional government of national unity in Kigali that would put an end to the genocide. Between 500,000 and 1 million people are estimated to have been murdered. April-May – General elections in India. Despite growing illiberal tendencies, the "world's biggest democracy" goes to the polls in April and May. The current prime minister, Narendra Modi, is aiming for a third term against an opposition that is more united than ever under the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). May 2 – Local elections in the United Kingdom. Elections will take place for local councils and mayors in England, including London and the combined authority of Greater Manchester. The elections will be seen as an indicator of the level of support both for the Labour Party and for the Conservatives ahead of general elections scheduled for January 2025. May 5 – General elections in Panama. Panamanian society will elect new representatives for the presidency, National Assembly, mayoralty and other local representatives. The elections will take place against a backdrop of marked polarisation and rising social tension, exacerbated by issues relating to domestic security, political disputes and the management of natural resources. May 19 – Presidential and legislative elections in the Dominican Republic. The current president, Luis Abinader, leader of the Modern Revolutionary Party, is seeking re-election in a vote in which most opposition parties will unite under the Opposition Alliance Rescue RD. Territorial, migration and economic tensions with neighbouring Haiti will be central issues during the election campaign.June – Presidential elections in Mauritania. The current president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, will seek re-election after four years of business as usual following the departure in 2019 of the former president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, who today faces multiple corruption charges. The winner of the elections will have to deal with rising social tension, as well as geopolitical tensions across the region. June 2 – General and federal elections in Mexico. Claudia Sheinbaum, the official shortlisted presidential candidate for the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), is the clear favourite against the main opposition candidate from the Broad Front for Mexico, formed by the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Voters will not only elect the president and the government, but also senators and federal deputies, as well as thousands of state and/or municipal officials in 30 of the 32 federal entities. June 6-9 – Elections to the European Parliament. Voting will take place simultaneously in the 27 countries that form the European Union. Some of the major questions are how far populist and far-right parties will advance, how much clout the traditional social democrat and conservative families will wield and the possible alliances that might form for the subsequent selection of key European posts. June 9 – Federal elections in Belgium. Coinciding with the Belgian presidency of the European Union, the country will hold federal, European and regional elections on the same day. One of the most significant issues will be how well the far-right party Vlaams Belang fares. It is aiming for a considerable increase in its support to test the resistance of the cordon sanitaire that has excluded it from power until now. June 13-15 – 50th G-7 summit in Italy. Savelletri, a small town in the Italian region of Puglia, will be the venue for a new meeting of the G7. The summit will tackle the main geopolitical challenges on the global stage and their impact on the international economy, along with other crucial issues on Italy's agenda, such as immigration and relations with Africa. June 20 – World Refugee Day. The number of forcibly displaced people hit all-time highs in 2023. There are refugees and internally displaced persons due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the numerous conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, as well as the impacts of climate change. During that week in June, the UNHCR will release its annual report on the global trends in forced displacement. First half of 2024 – Deployment of an international mission to Haiti. Kenya will lead the deployment of a security contingent with the participation of other countries. The goal is to tackle the gang violence in Haiti that is causing a major security and governance crisis. In October 2023, following a request from the secretary general and Haitian prime minister, the United Nations Security Council authorised a multinational security support mission for a period of one year. First half of 2024 – Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) Summit. India will host a new meeting of this strategic forum for the Indo-Pacific region formed by Australia, India, Japan and the United States to address common issues regarding trade, critical technologies, human rights and climate change. July – 24th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Kazakhstan holds the yearly rotating chairmanship of the main regional forum in Central Asia for security, economic and political affairs, made up of China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The priorities of the Kazakh chairmanship focus on matters of security and regional unity, as well as economic development and regional trade. Belarus is expected to join the organisation this year. July 1 – Hungary takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Hungary will take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of the year, amid tension with the European Commission and Parliament over its failures to comply with EU law. July 8-18 – High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development. World leaders and representatives will meet in New York to follow up and review the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as well as present Voluntary National Reviews on the SDGs. The theme will be "Reinforcing the 2030 Agenda and eradicating poverty in times of multiple crises: the effective delivery of sustainable, resilient and innovative solutions". July 9-11 – NATO Summit. Washington will be the venue for the NATO summit, where the presentation of a security strategy for the southern flank is expected, in response to the mandate arising out of the Vilnius summit in 2023. In addition, 2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of NATO. July 26-August 11 – Summer Olympic Games in Paris. France will host the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, the world's main sporting event, which is held every four years. It affords the hosts a good opportunity to kick-start an economy that has stagnated in recent years. August – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Rwanda. The incumbent president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, who has been in the post since 2000, is running for re-election after three successive ballots in which he has polled over 90% of the votes. September – Parliamentary elections in Austria. The burning question is whether the conservatives (ÖVP) and the greens (Die Grünen) will be able to repeat their current government coalition or whether the results of the populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and the social democrats of the SPÖ will offer alternative majorities. September 22-23 – UN Summit of the Future. Based on the "Our Common Agenda" report presented by UN Secretary General António Guterres in 2021, on multilateralism and international cooperation, this high-level event aims to accelerate the fulfilment of existing international commitments and tackle emerging challenges and opportunities. The culmination of this effort will be the creation of a Pact for the Future negotiated and endorsed by the participating countries. September 24 – General Debate of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly. A yearly event that brings together the world's leaders to assess the current state of their national policies and their world views. September 26-27 – 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa case. Mexico will mark the 10th anniversary of the Ayotzinapa (or Iguala) case, one of the biggest human rights scandals in the country's recent history. Still unsolved, the case involved the forced disappearance of 43 students from the Ayotzinapa Rural Teachers' College, Guerrero state. October – 16th BRICS Summit. Kazan in Russia will be the venue for the summit of the new BRICS, now expanded to 11 countries, adding impetus to Moscow's efforts to demonstrate that the country is not isolated despite the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. October 1 – 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. It is 75 years since Mao Zedong founded the People's Republic of China. The event marked the end of the civil war between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang that had broken out immediately after the surrender of Japan and the dissolution of the Second United Front between the two political forces during the Second Sino-Japanese War. October 6 – Municipal elections in Brazil. The elections will be a good gauge of the level of support for the Workers' Party and the parties that back President Lula, as well as of the advance, or otherwise, of Bolsonaro-linked candidates. In the cities where a second round of voting is required, it will take place on October 27. October 9 – General and regional elections in Mozambique. President Filipe Nyusi will end his second and final presidential term. According to the country's constitution, he cannot stand again. His party, the Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), which has been in power for decades, must find another candidate. The next government will face various challenges, including political tension, an increase in jihadi terrorism and marked social exclusion. October 24 – International Day of Climate Action. The goal is to mobilise and raise awareness of the effects of climate change among society and governments across the world. It is a good moment to analyse the different agendas to fight climate change and the progress being made in the most polluting countries. October 27 – General elections in Uruguay. The Broad Front (FA), a centre-left party with strong ties to the trade unions and other social organisations, will compete for victory against the centre-right Multicolour Coalition, which is currently in power and has faced several corruption cases in recent months. November – APEC Summit. Peru will host a new meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which gathers 21 countries. The theme this year is "People. Business. Prosperity". November – COP29 Climate Change Conference. Azerbaijan will host the world's largest international summit dedicated to climate change in 2024. For the second consecutive year, it will be held in a country whose economy is dependent on fossil fuel production. November – 29th Ibero-American Summit. Ecuador will host the Ibero-American Summit of heads of state and government under the theme "Innovation, inclusion and sustainability". In parallel, the main cities of Latin America, Spain and Portugal will hold a "Meeting of Ibero-American Cities", the conclusions of which will be presented during the summit. November 4-8 – 12th World Urban Forum. Cairo will host the premier gathering on urban issues and human settlements organised by UN-Habitat. November 5 – Presidential elections in the United States. The incumbent president, Joe Biden, is seeking re-election and, with the former president, Donald Trump, still to be confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee, the campaign promises to be highly polarised. The election calendar will influence Washington's foreign policy decisions. November 5 – General elections in Georgia. The ruling coalition Georgian Dream is looking for yet another term. The war in Ukraine has split the country again between those who seek deeper integration with the West and hope to join the European Union in the future and those who advocate normalising relations with Russia. November 11 – 20th anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat. The historic Palestinian leader and president of the Palestinian National Authority died 20 years ago in Paris. He played a crucial role in the Middle East peace process, which, along with Israeli leaders Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994. November 18-19 – G-20 summit in Brazil. Under the theme "Building a just world and sustainable planet", the main topics for discussion and debate at this meeting will include energy transition and development, reform of the global governance institutions, and the fight against inequality, hunger and poverty. December – Presidential elections in Algeria. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to run for re-election. The country faces several security challenges due to the instability in the Sahel and the rising tension with Morocco over the Western Sahara. It also plays a crucial role as a supplier of gas to Europe amid the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. December – General elections in South Sudan. The terms of the peace agreement of 2018, which put an end to an internal armed conflict lasting five years, established the forming of a government of national unity led by the current president, Salva Kiir, and his rival, the vice president, Riek Machar. Kiir has proposed holding free presidential elections in late 2024. December 7 – Presidential elections in Ghana. The elections are expected to be a two-horse race between Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice president of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), and the former president, John Dramani Mahama, the candidate of the main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC). The country is facing its worst economic crisis of recent decades and major security challenges because of the geopolitical situation in the Sahel. Second half of 2024 – Presidential elections in Venezuela. The Chavistas and the opposition gathered under the umbrella of the Unitary Platform reached an agreement in Barbados on staging presidential elections that provides for the invitation of regional and international observers. The decision came as the United States announced the lifting of sanctions on Venezuelan gas and oil in October 2023. Pending – 53rd Pacific Islands Forum. Tonga is to host a new meeting of the main discussion forum spanning the region of Oceania, which brings together the interests of 18 states and territories on matters of climate change, the sustainable use of maritime resources, security and regional cooperation. It is a geographical space of growing interest to China and the United States, which have begun a diplomatic race to draw some of these countries and territories into their spheres of influence. Pending – 44th ASEAN Summit. Laos will host a new meeting of Southeast Asia's main regional forum, which brings together 10 countries. The theme this time is "Enhancing connectivity and resilience". Pending – AI Safety Summit. France will host the second meeting of this international summit whose goal is to foster work and initiatives to tackle the risks posed by artificial intelligence. The first event, held in London in 2023, resulted in the Bletchley Declaration, which advocated greater international cooperation to address the challenges and risks associated with artificial intelligence. Pending – 33rd Arab League Summit. Bahrein will host a fresh meeting of the main political organisation gathering the countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, food and energy security issues, and the regional impacts of the war in Ukraine will be some of the main topics of discussion and debate. Pending – Presidential and parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka. The social tension in the country, mired in a deep economic crisis that has led to an International Monetary Fund rescue, has increased in recent months and is expected to intensify throughout the electoral process. Pending – General elections in Chad. Chad's transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, who came to power in April 2021 via a military junta following the death of his father, Idriss Déby, promised the staging of free elections in late 2024. The country is facing a serious food and security crisis. Pending – 3rd Summit for Democracy. South Korea will be the host of this US-promoted summit, which since 2021 has gathered heads of government and leaders from civil society and the private sector. Its goal is to address the challenges and opportunities facing democracies in the 21st century on matters relating to democratic governance, safeguarding human rights and fighting corruption. Pending – General and regional elections in South Africa. The African National Congress (ANC), in power since the first free and general elections in 1994, is looking to stay there, although the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, could pull off a surprise. The country faces countless challenges, particularly in matters of security thanks to soaring crime rates, a major energy crisis and high unemployment. Pending – Presidential elections in Tunisia. They will be the first elections since the power grab by the Tunisian president, Kaïs Saied, in 2021 and the return to authoritarianism of the only country that appeared to have consolidated democracy following the Arab Spring of 2010-2011. Saied has already announced he will not allow the presence of international election observers.DOI: https://doi.org/10.24241/NotesInt.2023/299/enAll the publications express the opinions of their individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIDOB as an institution

From the introduction: Based on the findings of the correlation analysis described in chapter 7.1, factors of influence and variables statistically not related to financial B2C e-commerce can now be distinguished. While the focus of this part of the analysis lies on factors showing significant correlation coefficients in relation to the research topic, this does not mean that the non-correlated factors are not of importance or somewhat connected. The statistical measurements may not be suitable for this type of analysis, survey results may be misleading or the situation will have changed in the last two years after the investigation. On the other hand, the observed correlations do not necessarily equal a causal relationship and the high complex matter can not be explained by single variables as influence factors. The conducted correlation analysis only serves as an indicator for potential influence factors or accelerators and has to be carefully evaluated. Keeping these considerations in mind, the statistical analysis within the scope of this masters dissertation will support the following conclusions and interpretations. First of all, computer usage and skills as well as internet usage and skills need to be on a high level in a country to facilitate financial B2C e-commerce. Residents of countries with higher levels for the subject of examination will probably already have gained adequate skills, as indicated by a medium strong negative relation to computer courses taken in the last three months and other online activities such as online information search and online banking positively correlated. While online banking is partially included in the variable e_comm representing financial B2C e-commerce through customer's usage of online financial services, this particular result may not be totally conclusive. However, it seems logical that consumers with good computer and internet skills also spending a lot of time with advanced activities on the internet may also engage in financial B2C e-commerce. This assumption narrows down the target group and excludes a certain clientele from online product offers of financial institutions - banks will need to adapt their web portals accordingly, set up initiatives improving computer and web skills of their consumers and meet their consumers on the internet, e.g. with advertising while they are using search engines. Practical evidence supporting these interpretations can be found in several examples of the past, e.g. extensive usability evaluations for UK banks by the press and specialised agencies, internet courses for seniors offered with German Postbank or online marketing success stories of financial enterprises. Similar to skills and frequency of use, basic technical availability of infrastructure such as computer system and internet access is required for the realisation of the research issue. Since mobile ownership and high-speed broadband access are also highly correlated, it can be assumed that countries with a generally higher technological development will have higher levels of financial B2C e-commerce. It can be expected that almost all European countries will reach digital maturity in the next few years and will be implicit, which will automatically accommodate the matter of examination. Structural factors of the finance sector do not show linkages to financial B2C e-commerce, only countries' GDP show a certain positive correlation, which is in line with findings on online banking. E-government seems to be in a similar state like the research topic, but does not seem to be of direct influence. General e-commerce in a country seems to have a positive relationship with financial e-commerce, especially in countries with a low rate of encountered problems on customer side. This makes sense as customers will possibly have good experiences with this business practice and will therefore not limit their e-commerce activity to certain business sectors. One could also infer that banks in countries with a high rate of general e-commerce will have better opportunities to market their online product sales. Going further, banks should actively support e-commerce business models of all sectors, for example though offering electronic, credit card or e-commerce shop payment systems. Whereas most cross-border e-commerce variables examined would not show high correlation coefficients, concerns about varying consumer protection in other countries seem to be important for consumers actively involved in financial B2C e-commerce. Even more interestingly, countries with a high level of financial B2 e-commerce would also show a high readiness of their consumers to participate in cross-border e-commerce, especially if prices in foreign countries are lower. Obviously, customers using domestic online services could easily expand their buying habits to other European countries, if suitable products offers and legal frameworks are available. Through cross-border financial B2C e-commerce, there is a potential danger to lose customers to foreign banks - domestic banks observing critical tendencies need to act accordingly. First of all, marketing research is needed to define current consumer buying habits and problems related. Banks with the necessary market power could adapt their product offers to target consumers prone to switch to foreign competitors, smaller local banks need to differentiate and exploit local advantages. Examples can be found in the German market with Commerzbank and its direct bank subsidiary comdirect directly competing with INGDiBa of the Dutch ING group or with Kreissparkasse Köln using local affiliates like sports clubs for their product sales, promoting high-interest deposit account in local Cologne dialect and offering a loyalty card for a local business partner network to their customers. Trust in online financial transactions and their security as well as a positive perception of consumer rights protection seems to be necessarily interwoven with financial B2C e-commerce. It is therefore crucial for financial institutions to ensure secure transactions according to the latest industry standards, provide valid information on internet security to customers and offer practical customer support concerning virus protection and internet fraud prevention. Banks should also value the importance of consumer rights highly, e.g. through using complaint management, support of nation or European wide legal initiatives and positive attitude towards consumer action groups. Most banks will have implemented security facilities, consumer rights are usually not explicitly mentioned and outlined on private customer webpages of commercial banks. The formal possibility to make complaints and enquiries should be largely improved by financial institutions in the EU. While the European Commision has for example established the Financial Services Consumer Group to promote this matter, which now tragically appears in public in connection with the Financial crisis, illiquid banks and frozen consumer accounts. Payment types preferred in a country are of interest for the level of financial B2C e-commerce - logically, countries with a high adoption of bank transfers are likely to have a higher rate of e-commerce in place, while countries using traditional methods such as cheques or cash show lower adoption rates. This may be explained by a general lack of a necessity and willingness to use modern instruments such as online financial transactions. Promoting bank transfers, especially through self-service terminals and online channels, may therefore help banks to promote their e-commerce activities.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.Research Context1 1.1Introduction and Theoretical Background of the Research1 1.2Professional and Academic Significance of the Research3 2.Research Problem, Objectives and Scope5 2.1Research Problem Statement and Research Questions5 2.2Research Hypothesis6 2.3Research Aims and Objectives6 2.4Scope of the Research7 3.Literature Review8 3.1Overview Literature Review8 3.2Introduction to the Current EU Financial Sector9 3.3Developments and Forces of Change in the EU Banking Environment10 3.4Strategic Reactions and Major Trends in EU Banking10 3.5Recent Developments and the Current State of the EU Retail Banking Market10 3.6Recent Developments and Current State of Online Banking and Financial E-Commerce in the EU12 3.6.1E-Business Potential of the EU Banking Industry12 3.6.2Online Banking in EU countries12 3.6.3Financial E-Commerce in EU countries14 3.6.4Cross-border financial e-commerce16 3.6.5Advantages, Problems and Future Prospects of Financial E-Commerce in the European Union18 3.6.6Potential Influence Factors on Financial E-Commerce in the EU20 3.7Reflective Summary, Key Findings and Relation to Research Topic24 4.Research Methodology32 4.1Research Design32 4.2Research Strategy32 4.3Research Methods33 4.4Data Sources34 4.4.1Primary Data34 4.4.2Secondary Data35 4.5Data Analysis for Research Questions38 4.5.1Research Question 138 4.5.2Research Question 239 4.5.3Research Question 341 4.5.4Research Question 443 5.Research Question 1: Current State and Extent of B2C E-Commerce in the EU Banking Sector44 5.1Research Results and Findings for Research Question 144 5.1.1Basic Prerequisites for Provision of Financial Services Online44 5.1.2Provision of Financial Services Online and Financial E-Commerce45 5.1.3Consumer Adoption of Financial Services Online / Fin. E-Commerce47 5.1.4Cross-Country Financial E-Commerce50 5.2Research Analysis and Interpretation for Research Question 152 5.2.1Basic Prerequisites for Provision of Financial Services Online52 5.2.2Provision of Financial Services Online / Financial E-Commerce54 5.2.3ConsumerAdoption of Financial Services Online / Fin. E-Commerce55 5.2.4Analysis and Interpretation for Cross-Country Financial E-Commerce57 5.2.5Analysis and Interpretation Conclusion58 6.Research Question 2: Country Cluster Analysis for B2CE-Commerce in the EU Banking Sector59 6.1Research Results and Findings for Research Question 259 6.2Research Analysis and Interpretation for Research Question 262 7.Research Question 3: Influence Factors on B2C E-Commerce in the EU Banking Sector66 7.1Research Results and Findings for Research Question 366 7.2Research Analysis and Interpretation for Research Question 370 7.2.1Quantifiable Factors of Influence70 7.2.2Other Factors of Influence75 8.Research Question 4: The Case of Sparkasse Langen-Seligenstadt and B2C E-Commerce77 8.1Research Results and Findings for Research Question 477 8.2Research Analysis and Interpretation for Research Question 477 9.Reflections on the Current Financial Crisis and its Relation to the Research Topic83 10.Conclusion, Policy Recommendations and Future Research85Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 4.1, Research Design: Providing the framework for collection and analysis of data, the research design of the planned study can be best described as a cross-sectional design with comparative, cross-cultural and international research elements. Quantitative or quantifiable data (extent and potential influence factors of B2C e-commerce in the banking sector) is gathered for a range of cases (EU countries) at a single point in time to detect patterns of association. This approach seems suitable as it allows for a systematic and standardised method to examine relationships between the variables - financial e-commerce and its key influence factors - within the European sample. However, since the proposed design approach has no elements of an experimental design, problems of internal validity, credibility and uncertain causal relationships may occur. As already indicated in the research objectives, another research design in the form of a case study will additionally be used to apply conclusions and recommendations derived from the analysis to an exemplary mid-sized bank in Germany. The case study approach seems particularly interesting as the researcher is working for the examined company, will have access to internal resources and have opportunities to gather instant feedback on suggested improvements. Research Strategy: The research strategy chosen reflects the nature of the examined variables – some examined influence factors will be of quantitative character whereas others are rather difficult to quantify. Since the focus of this dissertation lies on the quantitative analysis of the extent and current state as well as on measurable relationships and possible dependencies between e-commerce adoption and several other factors, quantitative research serves as an appropriate research strategy. Having established this fact, it is equally important to realise that a well-balanced and complete appraisal of financial B2B e-commerce will involve qualitative factors and business case examples. Building on the complementarity of both groups of factors, elements of mixed methods research need to be taken into account as well. Research Methods: The research methods used are directly linked to the stated aims and objectives and are supposed to help achieve them in the most effective and meaningful manner. Almost all research objectives can be analysed with quantitative data analysis building on a relevant data set. However, due to the expected nature of the influence factors examined, qualitative document analysis of secondary research and an exemplary case study based on primary research will supplement the quantitative analysis. The reasons for choosing these research methods can be described as follows: first of all, the availability of current official statistics on this topic. Secondly, studies already conducted in the similar field of online banking with informative results and the connection with a company for a case study (see primary data) were seen as an excellent starting point. A number of reasons would even exclude other research methods such as surveys, interviewing techniques or the triangulation approach, which is commonly used for researching internet adoption. The European scope of the research as well as the highly confidential banking sector would not enable the researcher to conduct a survey research or interviews of representative nature. To enquire about the state of European B2C e-commerce in the financial sector, impact on domestic banks and its influence factors, it seems justified to use general statistical information available in the public domain together with secondary data for non-quantitative information as well as a case example thematically linked to the day-to-day business of local banks. Data Sources - Primary Data: Primary research was conducted first to determine the interest, level of support, requirements and wants of the sponsoring company Sparkasse Langen-Seligenstadt, Frankfurt, Germany, (see case study in appendix B) to facilitate and support dissertation on this particular topic. During the process of writing the dissertation several presentations and feedback sessions were arranged with the department of electronic media. Interim and final results were also discussed in an informal manner at the Conference on Innovation in the Banking Industry and at various other events. Most importantly, the case study employed was set up with the help of the electronic media department at Sparkasse Langen-Seligenstadt. In several interview sessions and group discussions, employees with different functions within the company, e.g. product managers, web designers, marketing experts, customer support agents, provided their insights and opinions on the reality of online product sales as conducted by Sparkasse Langen-Seligenstadt. From a future perspective, it may be possible to introduce the findings to a group of experts from different banks and discuss the results and implications, since the company is part of a larger network of German savings banks. The excellent availability of primary data and information from inside the company due to personal involvement of the researcher is highly beneficial for the reflective examination of B2C e-commerce in the financial sector. Data Sources - Secondary Data: For the thorough investigation into the extent of financial e-commerce and level of adoption by consumers, related information and data to be used had to meet the following criteria: a recent publishing date, highly relevant research topics and questions, multinational scope as well as high quality of the data set and its underlying questionnaires. The quantitative research parts of this dissertation were therefore largely based on the data set of the Eurostat Community Survey on ICT usage and e-Commerce in Enterprises in the Financial Sector, the analogue survey research for all kinds of enterprises and ICT Household survey, as shown in figure 9 at the end of this chapter. These sources of data were considered to be most appropriate for several reasons. Probably the most extensive and current data source on this issue, these sources covered the entire European Union (EU27 plus partially Norway and Iceland) and a number of e-commerce related questions in the year 2006. The quality and density of data seemed to be of high quality, with a representative sample of more than 100,000 enterprises in total for all sectors, more than 10,000 enterprises for the financial sector and 1000 to 6000 households in every country. The data sets were freely available as a working database, to be used with statistical tools such as SPSS or Microsoft Excel. Problems of validity seemed to be fairly low as standards and sample questionnaires were set up by the European Commission for the agencies conducting the analysis within the particular country. Several problems and limitations were identified in connection with the usage of these data sets. First of all, a general limitation to official statistics including this data set is the usage of aggregate data in some cases, so a potential for ecological fallacy as well as generalisation exists. Next, the pan-European sample incorporating highly different cases may not be equally as representative for all cases (see % of sampled enterprises in appendix D 2). Single missing values weakened the explanatory power for some parts of the analysis. It was also the case that data on certain issues, e.g. consumer satisfaction with product offers in this field, was not available for the entire sample at this point in time. Due to a lack of alternatives, following other examples of research using a similar approach as well as with reliance on the reputation of Eurostat, the extensive documentation) and the quality assurance of the OECD and other high profile institutions in this case, the decision to use the sources described seemed justified and a sound basis for the proposed research. Additionally, several Eurobarometer studies were used and considered for the data analysis of the third research question. Since they contained valuable information on public opinion regarding issues related to the research topic, it had to be accepted that the reference year varied in a few cases. For the qualitative part of the research and the literature review, other secondary resources such journals and reports available through the LSBU E-resources, Reuters Insight and the Business Source Premier database were used to start. Later on, materials from business school libraries in Germany amended prior findings. For particular parts of the research, e.g. regulatory issues or web usability, specific web resources were employed.

2013/2014 ; La tesi tratta della radio e della sua funzione culturale, partendo dal presupposto che essa ha, per sua natura, una finalità di esternazione di suoni (parole o musiche) rivolti ad un pubblico, e ha l'intento di insegnare, divertire e intrattenere. Attraverso i contenuti che essa trasmette, infatti, è possibile disegnare un quadro che descrive l'orientamento e i valori che trasmette, e quindi, la specificità non solo degli argomenti trattati, ma anche della più generale linea di pensieri e intenzioni che persegue. Nel corso del lavoro, si è cercato di dimostrare che la radio svolge, per la sua natura, una funzione culturale nel formare un'identità e nel far circolare un certo tipo di canone della letteratura. Infatti, nonostante gli studi sui mezzi di comunicazione di massa in Italia abbiano conosciuto un'accelerazione nel loro sviluppo solo negli ultimi anni, la radio da sempre ha costituito, per le sue caratteristiche di dinamicità e versatilità, un media molto ricettivo delle istanze della società, influenzando profondamente il tessuto connettivo. Fra l'altro, per la sua inclinazione a essere, allo stesso tempo, mezzo di aperta diffusione e di fruizione intimistica, essa ha sempre mantenuto un'impronta evidente di comunicazione personale, non massificata, ma creatrice di una comunità di ascoltatori che condividono informazioni e pratiche sociali. Si è così notato che, attraverso le sue messe in onda, la radio veicola i contenuti, gli argomenti e le forme del pensiero prevalente, incoraggiati evidentemente dai responsabili dell'emittente stessa che assumono un'importanza non secondaria. Essa può trasformarsi, allora, in uno strumento di politica culturale perché ha la capacità e la possibilità di diffondere, attraverso i programmi, una certa visione del mondo e della storia, fornendo gli strumenti per far riflettere e convincere chi è in ascolto e proponendo un deciso orientamento interpretativo dei fatti. Non solo, però, mezzo emanatore di prodotti informativi e culturali, ma anche mediatore di condivisione e confronto con un'altissima incidenza sul sistema politico, sociale, culturale stesso. Insomma, la radio costituisce un attore importante nel condizionamento della società alla quale si rivolge e dalla quale è ispirata e influenzata. Il caso preso in esame è quello più particolare di Radio Trieste dal 1954 al 1976, un periodo emblematico per la storia del secondo Novecento della realtà giuliana, fra la fine del Governo Militare Alleato con la firma del Memorandum di Londra e la sigla del Trattato di Osimo, che ridefinivano rispettivamente l'autorità italiana e i confini dell'Italia a nord-est, dopo gli anni tormentati di divisioni fra la Zona A e la Zona B. Con il 1975, poi, iniziò un periodo di distensione fra le due più potenti forze militari mondiali e, sul piano locale, si risolse, pur amaramente, la vicenda della terra istriana, che passò senza diritto di replica alla Jugoslavia di Tito. Radio Trieste rappresentava un'emittente del tutto anomala, nel quadro più generale delle radio, in quanto poteva disporre, come si vedrà, di mezzi e strumenti di primo livello, ed era capace di un'autonomia invidiabile, dovuta proprio alla sua storia particolare. Il periodo preso in esame, fra l'altro, costituisce l'ultimo segmento temporale nel quale l'emittente radiotelevisiva pubblica aveva ancora una centralità riconosciuta, nel più vasto panorama nazionale, poi in parte erosa, a partire dall'approvazione della Riforma interna della RAI (del 1975) che autorizzava il proliferare delle reti e dei canali radiofonici privati e, soprattutto, vedeva nella spartizione netta fra i partiti la sua nuova identità. In quegli stessi anni, fra l'altro, si assisteva all'affermazione indiscutibile della televisione come mezzo di diffusione di massa privilegiato dal pubblico, e, prevalendo sulla radio, costringeva ad un ruolo minoritario, quasi d'élite, la radiofonia, che comunque seppe reinventarsi una funzione e ricostruire intorno a sé un pubblico specifico. Per tutte queste coincidenze, l'esempio di Radio Trieste, dunque, appare assai emblematico, per il significato e le motivazioni che essa assunse negli anni già indicati: vent'anni considerati cruciali non solo per la storia locale, ma anche per la cultura e la letteratura ad essa legata. Infatti, come si cercherà di dimostrare, l'emittente triestina divenne allora il centro della vita intellettuale della città stessa, concedendo larghissimi spazi alla presenza delle principali voci della cultura, della letteratura e dell'arte locale, rappresentanti e portatori più autentici dei valori e dei principi risorgimentali e primo-novecenteschi, che intesero seminare in un territorio ferito e lacerato dalle due guerre mondiali proprio quanto da loro ritenuto fondante della società stessa. Vi furono allora due generazioni di letterati, intellettuali, scrittori, pensatori, poeti che, fra il 1954 e il 1976, presero parte ai programmi di Radio Trieste, nel tentativo di far riprendere l'abitudine della parola a una città straziata dai silenzi muti dei precedenti cinquant'anni, di fornire degli elementi di verità di quanto avvenuto e, soprattutto, di aprire un nuovo orizzonte di fiducia per la città giuliana. L'uso di nuove parole-chiave, la rievocazione dei fatti storici, i contesti narrativi, il ricordo di mondi passati, la ricerca dell'identità furono allora il centro stesso del fermento creativo di questi anni che si raccolse intorno alla radio, affidata alla direzione dell'ing. Guido Candussi (fino al 1976). Se è vero, infatti, che l'emittente pubblica in Europa (a differenza degli Stati Uniti) ha come intento quello di concorrere alla costruzione e alla difesa dell'identità culturale e civile del Paese, Radio Trieste cercò di esercitare questa funzione attraverso tutti gli strumenti che aveva a disposizione. Il lavoro di ricerca, così, ha voluto entrare nel vivo della programmazione della Radio, andando ad individuare quali fossero le trasmissioni in onda nel ventennio considerato, quali le voci che trovarono spazio, quali i contenuti delle stesse, e quindi, quale fosse il messaggio che si lasciava intendere. Non esiste, infatti, ad oggi alcuno studio specifico al riguardo, se si escludono due contributi, seppur preziosi, costituiti dal lavoro ciclopico di Guido Candussi, Storia della filodiffusione, (Trieste 1993, 2003 e 2008), e quello divulgativo a cura di Guido Botteri e Roberto Collini, Radio Trieste 1931-2006: un microfono che registra 75 anni di storia (Eri, Roma 2007). Inoltre, è da considerare che il patrimonio archivistico consultabile presso la sede regionale della RAI di Trieste consta di un numero esiguo di documenti, e, non di meno, manca del tutto un elenco completo del posseduto, che comunque è stato ridotto a forma digitale e non consente, dunque, un'indagine che permetta una visione ampia dell'archivio intero. Fra l'altro, sembra che le modalità con le quali si è proceduto allo scarto dei materiali non siano state regolate ordinatamente, ma dettate da qualche indicazione dirigenziale interna alla sede stessa (di cui resta un chiacchiericcio, ma nessuna documentazione effettiva), quando non dalla pura casualità. Anzi, alcune fonti orali riportano che, oltre ai documenti conservati presso la RAI di Trieste, sopravvissuti in parte all'incendio che ha devastato la sede alla fine degli anni Cinquanta, esiste ancora del materiale in qualche stanza della sede RAI o accolto negli archivi personali dei dipendenti dell'azienda. Solo il buonsenso dei singoli ha, quindi, salvato alcuni materiali originali dalla distruzione; infatti gli scarti sarebbero stati prodotti, anno dopo anno, senza una vera e propria logica che tenesse in considerazione la totalità del materiale, causando la dispersione di migliaia di riferimenti e contenuti. Per quantificare il patrimonio inerente a Radio Trieste, sia quello conservato che quello andato variamente disperso, non esistendo un vero e proprio catalogo, era necessario un lavoro di ricerca più lungo nel tempo e più approfondito. Era necessario, prima di tutto, costruire un elenco di programmi andati in onda in quegli anni: per farlo, si è ricorso allora allo spoglio dei periodici del tempo, in particolare de «Il Piccolo» e del «Radiocorriere TV» nella parte dedicata ai programmi radiofonici e televisivi, per dedurne gli orari di messa in onda e la programmazione giorno per giorno, mese per mese, anno per anno, trascrivendo pazientemente quanto previsto per la messa in onda. Circa sei mesi della ricerca, quindi, sono stati dedicati così all'annotazione meticolosa, paziente e fruttuosa dei riferimenti programmatici, dedotti dai riquadri delle trasmissioni che, giornalmente o settimanalmente, erano riportate sui due periodici, ottenendo così un elenco quanto più verosimile e puntuale possibile. Le fonti sono state reperite, per quanto riguarda «Il Piccolo», presso l'Archivio di Stato di Trieste, e «Il Radiocorriere TV» presso la Biblioteca Nazionale di Firenze. Si sono così potuti individuare 1058 titoli di programmi radiofonici di impronta culturale e letteraria, in onda fra il 1954 e il 1976 su Radio Trieste. Si trattava di trasmissioni che accoglievano e davano voce agli intellettuali giuliani, sia a quelli già noti, sia a quelli emergenti, ai quali era concesso uno spazio di conversazione, presentazione o commento e lettura delle opere. Questi programmi rappresentano una parte molto rilevante del palinsesto dell'emittente e possono essere usati, appunto, per considerare la funzione politico-culturale che essa assunse, come luogo di elaborazione e esternazione dei contenuti che la città sentiva più urgenti e che il gruppo intellettuale vide la necessità di esternare attraverso le onde radio. Il tentativo, infatti, che gli intellettuali fecero fu quello di ridare slancio, attraverso la loro promozione artistica, ai valori fondamentali di libertà, tolleranza e dignità umana che avevano dato a Trieste i suoi anni migliori. Attorno alla radio, allora, si costruì non solo una classe di intellettuali colti, creativi, autonomi, ma anche una vera comunità, quella cittadina, nuovamente aggregata, resa più consapevole e acculturata dalle trasmissioni stesse: essa vedeva nel mezzo di comunicazione di massa una modalità non soltanto di svago e intrattenimento, ma anche di conoscenza e riflessione, rappresentando quanto di più vivo e autentico esisteva nella realtà giuliana. Radio Trieste costituisce così un caso del tutto eccezionale e straordinario di come la radio poté incidere profondamente in un territorio difficile ma ricco di intelligenze e di capacità che furono messe a disposizione della collettività, e assolse così la funzione propria di un servizio pubblico. Mentre le ricerche erano in fase avanzata, è emersa, fra l'altro, una fonte preziosissima, grazie alla disponibilità generosa di un ex dipendente RAI, che, venuto a conoscenza di queste ricerche, ha voluto condividere i preziosissimi quaderni della signora Silva Grünter, autrice, programmista e assistente ai programmi di Radio Trieste, che egli aveva trovato per caso negli armadi del suo ufficio. Qui sono diligentemente appuntati titoli, autori e numero di catalogazione dei programmi culturali di Radio Trieste corrispondenti proprio agli stessi anni d'interesse. Si tratta dunque di una preziosa controprova del lavoro svolto, che ne evidenzia, pur con qualche differenza, la validità e la scientificità. Il lavoro di ricerca presente rappresenta, pertanto, un tassello prezioso e finora sconosciuto del mosaico della cultura giuliana del dopoguerra, che delinea l'azione di Radio Trieste nel contesto sociologico, culturale e letterario del capoluogo di regione, rapportato all'ambiente degli intellettuali giuliani e al contributo in termini di cultura e conoscenza diffusa. Esso dimostra il ruolo della radio come strumento di diffusione e riflessione su determinati valori e principi che gli autori dei programmi, e la direzione stessa, ritenevano evidentemente cruciali. Porre l'accento sull'importanza culturale di Radio Trieste nel dopoguerra, significa, infine, scoprire uno spazio comune solo parzialmente esplorato in cui si sono intrecciati cultura, mezzi di comunicazione di massa e territorio, nel grande canovaccio della storia tormentata e complessa delle terre giuliane del Novecento. ; XXVII Ciclo ; 1986

10/28/2020 Professor Asao Inoue selected for top teaching award – Fresno State News www.fresnostatenews.com/2012/05/01/professor-asao-inoue-selected-for-top-teaching-award/ 1/6 PROFESSOR ASAO INOUE SELECTED FOR TOP TEACHINGAWARD Home | PRESS RELEASES | Professor Asao Inoue selected for top teaching award Previous  Next  Professor Asao Inoue, an associate professor of English, has beenawarded the top teaching honor at Fresno State. William A. Covino, provost and vice president for Academic A􀃠􎁡airs, namedInoue as recipient of the 2012 Excellence in Teaching Award. The Provost's Awards announced Tuesday, May 1, also honored: Amanda Adams, assistant professor of Psychology, recipient of theFaculty Service Award Saúl Jiménez-Sandoval, professor of Modern and ClassicalLanguages, Gradvuate Teaching and Mentoring Award William Bommer, professor of Management, Research, Scholarshipand Creative Accomplishment Award Bryan Berrett, associate professor of Communicative Disorders andDeaf Studies, Technology in Education Award.       Search . SECTIONS ACADEMICS  CAMPUS &COMMUNITY  RESEARCH  ALUMNI  PRESS RELEASES  FEATURED VIDEOS  NEWS SOURCES Fresno StateMagazine  CommunityNewsletter  Fresno State  The Collegian  Bulldog Blog  ACADEMICS CAMPUS & COMMUNITY RESEARCH ALUMNI ATHLETICS FEATURED VIDEOS  ABOUT PRESS RELEASES MEDIA GUIDE ARCHIVES10/28/2020 Professor Asao Inoue selected for top teaching award – Fresno State News www.fresnostatenews.com/2012/05/01/professor-asao-inoue-selected-for-top-teaching-award/ 2/6 Four faculty members received the Promising New Faculty award,recognizing exemplary achievements in teaching, research/creativeactivities and/or service among nontenured, tenure-track faculty. Thehonorees are: Juan-Carlos Gonzalez, assistant professor of Educational Researchand Administration. Elizabeth Payne, assistant professor of Theatre Arts. Jason Bush, assistant professor of Biology. Kim Youngwook, assistant professor of Electrical and ComputerEngineering. Asao Inoue , associate professor of English, receives the Excellence inTeaching Award. He has been at Fresno State since 2007. He approachesthe challenge of teaching high-level writing skills with an innovativepedagogy that emphasizes students' roles in their own education. Hefrequently asks students to evaluate and challenge traditionalinstructional environments and to examine alterna tive teaching methodsthat foster greater individual success. One important aspect of histeaching philosophy is getting students to talk about their writing inrhetorical and re􀃖􍙥exive ways. Inoue's on-campus service includes work asorganizer and facilitator for the Symposium on Remediation in Englishand as a committee member for the Improving Student Writing Initiative,Criterion As sessment Committee. His community service includes work ascurriculum designer, teacher, and program assessment coordinator forUniversity 20 (Academic Reading course), Summer Bridge Program, andthe Educational Opportunity Program. He has active memberships in theCon ference on College Composition and Communication, NationalCouncil of Teachers of English, Asian American Studies Association,Rhetoric Society of America, and Council of Writing ProgramAdministrators. In 2000, he received the Faculty Development SeminarAward. His national hon ors and awards include the Ford FoundationPredoctoral Fellowship for Minorities in 2003. Amanda Adams , assistant professor of Psychology, receives the FacultyService Award. She has been at Fresno State since 2006. Her passion forhelping families who have children with autism drives her to createopportunities for students' development, both as practitioners of appliedbehavior analysis and as researchers that disseminate new knowledge.She has worked tirelessly to develop and secure support for the CentralCalifornia Autism Center (CCAC) on campus. The center pro videsopportunities for students to learn to apply Applied Behavior Analysisprinciples, conduct research, and learn important professional skills.Adams provides important service to the local community by educatingpractitioners who treat autism, families who are a􀃠􎁥ected by autism, andpolicy makers who develop programs and provide 􀃕􍕮nancial support fortreating autism. For four years, she has worked with students to plan and Go Bulldogs  Videos  Social MediaDirectory  10/28/2020 Professor Asao Inoue selected for top teaching award – Fresno State News www.fresnostatenews.com/2012/05/01/professor-asao-inoue-selected-for-top-teaching-award/ 3/6 implement Autism Awareness Field Day. She is involved in otherawareness/fundraising events, including the CCAC Gala Fundraiser andannual golf tournament. She is a member of the California Chapter of theAssociation for Applied Behav ior Analysis and received the Provost'sAward for Promising New Faculty in 2009. Saúl Jiménez-Sandoval , professor of Modern and Classical Languagesand Literatures, receives the Graduate Teaching and Mentoring Award. Hehas been at Fresno State since 2000 and has a well-established record ofexceptional graduate teaching. Jiménez-Sandoval has been a driving forcein the development of the Spanish M.A. curriculum, personally developingand teaching 􀃕􍕶ve new seminars for the program. In his teaching, hestresses the basic human emotions of love, despair, and hope. He isdescribed as a proli􀃕􍕣c thesis director and has served on the Spanish M.A.exam com mittee each semester since his arrival. Jiménez-Sandovalbelieves in students' ability to push them selves and excel. His studentshave been accepted to Ph.D. programs at UCLA, Irvine, Berkeley, Stanford,Arizona, British Columbia, and Alberta. He was the recipient of the 2003-04 Research, Scholarship, and Creative Activity Award. Through hisexemplary scholarship, he serves as a model of the teacher-scholar tostudents and faculty. His public lectures include the 2005 InternationalCo􀃠􎁥ee Hour presentation on the sacred role of poetry in Aztec culture,and his articles include his recent publication on the canonical Mexicancoming-of-age novel, Las batallas en el desierto William Bommer , professor of Management, receives the Research,Scholarship and Creative Ac complishments Award. He has been at FresnoState since 2008. Bommer uses his research on a regular basis in theclassroom. His research spans a number of topics in the 􀃕􍕥eld of manage -ment and applied psychology. Two primary areas of research for which heis known internationally are the areas of transformational leadership andorganizational citizenship. Widely published, his research is impressive.His work is commonly cited in college texts and is regularly assigned indoctoral-level seminars. In the past two years, he has been the principalinvestigator on three di􀃠􎀠 erent external grants. These grants have totaledmore than $600,000. His work has been used for doctoral training in the􀃕􍕥elds of management, psychology, marketing, education, andmanagement information systems. He also served as the outside experton two di􀃠􎁥erent dissertation committees in Australia. Bryan Berrett , associate professor of Communicative Disorders and DeafStudies, receives the Technology in Education Award. He has been atFresno State since 1998. In 2010, he was one of four CSU faculty to beawarded Sony's multimedia award. Berrett has demonstratedtremendous leadership in the use of technology at Fresno State,particularly in the development of online classes. He has established a10/28/2020 Professor Asao Inoue selected for top teaching award – Fresno State News www.fresnostatenews.com/2012/05/01/professor-asao-inoue-selected-for-top-teaching-award/ 4/6 remarkable track record of innovative and practical uses of technol ogy.For example, over the last several years, he has been the recipient ofmultiple Digital Campus grants to convert traditional classes into onlinecourse o􀃠􎁥erings. He coordinates the sign language interpreting program,which now has approximately 30 percent of its coursework o􀃠􎁥ered online.He also has integrated the use of audio and visual multimedia into theAmerican Sign Language computer lab. Most recently, Berrett has beenthe department's leader in converting the education graduate programinto an 80 percent online 20 percent face-to-face format. Promising New Faculty Awards 2011-2012 Juan-Carlos Gonzalez , assistant professor of Educational Research andAdministration, has been at Fresno State since 2009. A skilled professorand scholar, he has fully engaged in service to the university and thecommunity. He serves on multiple editorial boards for peer-reviewedjournals and as a proposal reviewer on a national level. He has beenactive in accreditation activities, chaired the International Committee, andorganized a faculty study trip to Costa Rica. Gonzalez has mentored aMcNair Scholar and worked with the Central California Children's Instituteon research projects. He is an enthusiastic participant in the life of theKremen School and the university as a whole. In addition to his regularcourses, he has taught classes in qualitative research methods and criticalrace theory in education. He has already published four articles andpresented at 23 conferences in the United States. He has also presentedin China and in Mexico. Gonzalez has received numerous awards andhonors, including the Dandoyd Research Award for spring 2012. Elizabeth Payne , assistant professor of Theatre Arts, has been at FresnoState since 2008. A highly tal ented designer, she continues to workprofessionally in theatre in New York and in television, where she hasconsulted on the Conan O'Brien Show. She brings to Fresno State herconsiderable skills in design, teaching, mentorship, and communityoutreach. She is a demanding teacher who has transformed the existingcostume design and technology courses and created new ones, such asCostume History and Design Focus on Film. Seamlessly integrating socialand political issues into her discussion of fashion, she demonstrates tostudents why broad cultural knowledge is crucial to successful designwork. Her classes bring together academics and practical, skill-basedtraining. Payne has also been proactive in generating grants, including aFresno State Enhancing Student Information Literacy Grant, which sheintegrated into her Costume History class. In the area of mentorship, shehas had considerable impact — her door is open to all. She is the recipientof the 2012 Fresno County Board of Education Artist in Residence Grant.10/28/2020 Professor Asao Inoue selected for top teaching award – Fresno State News www.fresnostatenews.com/2012/05/01/professor-asao-inoue-selected-for-top-teaching-award/ 5/6 By llarson | May 1st, 2012 | Categories: PRESS RELEASES | 3 Comments SHARE THIS STORY, CHOOSE YOUR PLATFORM!     RELATED POSTS Jason Bush , assistant professor of Biology, has been at Fresno State since2006. Bush has enriched the university environment through his serviceand demonstrated excellence and leadership within the Biol ogyDepartment, the College of Science and Mathematics, and the university,with service on the Cur riculum Committee and the Graduate ScholarshipCommittee. Bush is one of the leading researchers in cancer andproteomic research. He has made 31 presentations since his arrival.Through Dr. Bush's 20 national collaborations, he has been able to extendFresno State resources to develop a broader and resource-richenvironment for his students. He has received $1.5 million in nationalgrants from 􀃕􍕶ve externally funded proposals, including NIH, AmericanCancer Society, Keep-A-Breast Foundation, Susan G. Komen for the Cure,and CSUPERB. Bush was also a co-principal investigator in the $4.5 millionRIMI grant for the development of a research facility in the Central Valley.In addition to ex ternal funding, he has augmented his research with$120,000 in internal grants. He is a consultant and grant reviewer for theSusan G. Komen for the Cure, as well as an active member of theUniversity of California, San Francisco-Fresno Research Group. Youngwook Kim , assistant professor of Electrical and ComputerEngineering, has been at Fresno State since 2008, demonstrating hisdedication to high quality teaching, research and creative activities, andstudent involvement in his research. He has taught a wide repertoire ofundergraduate and graduate courses focusing primarily on highfrequency electronics. Through online methodology, he provides studentswith the opportunity to learn at their own pace. Kim's research focuses onelectromagnetics and the application of Doppler and ultra-wide bandradar systems to human detection applications, such as security,surveillance operations, and search-and-rescue missions. While at FresnoState, he has published several journal papers and six conference papers.His research totals $167,659 in external funding. Currently, Kim ispreparing a proposal on data fusion and target sensing models in wirelesssensor network environments. He is also serving as a grant developmentchair for the Untenured Faculty Organization and is a member of theProfessional Development Committee, the Honors Committee, and theResearch and Grant Review Committee within the Lyles College ofEngineering.10/28/2020 Professor Asao Inoue selected for top teaching award – Fresno State News www.fresnostatenews.com/2012/05/01/professor-asao-inoue-selected-for-top-teaching-award/ 6/6 SAÚL JIMÉNEZ-SANDOVALAPPOINTEDINTERIM PRESIDENTOF FRESNO STATE October 28th, 2020 | 0Comments TRANSPORTATIONINSTITUTE RELEASESPROMISINGFINDINGS OFCOVID-19 PUBLICTRANSIT STUDY October 28th, 2020 | 0Comments NURSING MUNIT CONTFREE HEALSERVICES OWEST FRES October 27th, Comments Fresno State News Hub isthe primary source ofinformation about currentevents a􀃠􎁥ecting CaliforniaState University, Fresno, itsstudents, faculty and sta􀃠􎀻;providing an archive ofnews articles, videos andphotos, as well as links tomajor resources on campusas a service to theuniversity community. 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Keith Hart on the
Informal Economy, the Great Transformation, and the Humanity of Corporations














International Relations
has long focused on the formal relations between states; in the same way,
economists have long focused exclusively on formal economic activities. If by
now that sounds outdated, it is only because of the work of Keith Hart. Famous
for coining the distinction between the formal and the informal economy in the
1970s, Hart is a critical scholar who engages head-on with some of the world's
central political-economic challenges. In this Talk, he, amongst others, discusses the value of the distinction 40
years after; how we need to rethink The
Great Transformation nearly a century later; and how we need to undo the
legal equivalence of corporations to humans, instituted nearly 150 years back.














Print version of this Talk (pdf)




What is, according to you, the
central challenge or principal debate in International Relations? And what is
your position regarding this challenge/in this debate?







I think it is the lack of fit between politics, which
is principally national, and the world economy, which is global. In particular,
the system of money has escaped from its national controls, but politics, public
rhetoric aside, has not evolved to the point where adequate responses to our
common economic problems can be posed. At this point, the greatest challenge is
to extend our grasp of the problems we face beyond the existing national
discussions and debates. Most of the problems we see today in the world—and the
economic crisis is only one example—are not confined to a single country.







For me, the question is how we can extend our research
from the local to the global. Let the conservatives restrict themselves to
their national borders. This is not to say I believe that political solutions
to the economic problems the world faces are readily available.  Indeed, it is possible that we are entering
another period of war and revolution, similar to 1776-1815 or 1914-1945. Only
after prolonged conflict and much loss might the world reach something like the
settlement that followed 1945. This was not only a settlement of wartime
politics, but also a framework for the economic politics of the peace,
responding to problems that arose most acutely between the wars.  It sounds tragic, but my point in raising the
possibility now is to remind people that there may be even more catastrophic
consequences at stake that they realize already. We need to confront these and
mobilize against them. When I go back in history, I am pessimistic about
resolving the world's economic problems soon, since the people who got us into
this situation are still in power and are still pursuing broadly the same
policies without any sign of them being changed. I believe that they will bring
us all into a much more drastic situation than we are currently facing. Yet in
some way we will be accountable if we ignore the obvious signs all around us.











How did you arrive at where you currently are in your thinking about IR?







My original work in West Africa arose out of a view that
the post-colonial regimes offered political recipes that could have more
general relevance for the world. I actually believed that the new states were
in a position to provide solutions, if you like, to the corrupt and decadent
political structures that we had in the West. That's why, when we were demonstrating
outside the American embassies in the '60s, we chanted the names of the great
Third World emancipation leaders—Frantz Fanon, Kwame Nkrumah, Fidel Castro, and so
on.







So for me, the question has always been whether
Africans, in seeking emancipation from a long history of slavery, colonialism, apartheid
and postcolonial failure, might be able to change the world. I still think it
could be and I'm quite a bit more optimistic about the outcome now than I have
been for most of the last fifty years. We live in a racialized world order
where Africa acts as the most striking symbol of inequality. The drive for a
more equal world society will necessarily entail a shift in the relationship
between Africa and the rest of the world. I have been pursuing this question
for the last thirty years or more. What interests me at the moment is the
politics of African development in the coming decades.







Africa began the twentieth century as the least populated
and urbanized continent. It's gone through a demographic and urban explosion
since then, doubling its share
of world population in a century. In 2050, the UN predicts that 24% of the world
population will be in Africa, and in 2100, 35% (read the report here, pdf)! This is because Africa is growing
at 2.5% a year while the rest of the world is ageing fast. Additionally, 7 out
of the 10 fastest growing economies in the world are now African—Asian
manufacturers already know that Africa holds the key to the future of the world
economy.







But, besides Africa as a place, if you will, a number
of anti-colonial intellectuals have played a big role in influencing me. The
most important event in the twentieth century was the anti-colonial revolution.
Peoples forced into world society by Western Imperialism fought to establish
their own independent relationship to it. The leading figures of that struggle
are, to my mind, still the most generative thinkers when we come to consider
our own plight and direction. My mentor was the Trinidadian writer C.L.R. James, with whom I spent a
number of years toward the end of his life. I am by temperament a classicist; I
like to read the individuals who made a big difference to the way we think now.
The anti-colonial intellectuals were the most important thinkers of the 20th
century, by which I mean Gandhi, Fanon and James.







But I've also pursued a very classical, Western
trajectory in seeking to form my own thinking. When I was an undergraduate, I
liked Durkheim and as a graduate student Weber. When I was a young lecturer, I
became a Marxist; later, when I went to the Carribbean, I discovered Hegel,
Kant and Rousseau; and by the time I wrote my book on money, The Memory Bank,
the person I cited more than anyone else was John Locke. By then I realized I
had been moving backwards through the greats of Western philosophy and social
theory, starting with the Durkheim school of sociology. Now I see them as a set
of possible references that I can draw on eclectically. Marx is still probably
the most important influence, although Keynes, Simmel and Polanyi have also shaped my
recent work. I suppose my absolute favorite of all those people is Jean-Jacques
Rousseau for his Discourse on Inequality and his inventive
approach to writing about how to get from actual to possible worlds.











What would a student need (dispositions, skills) to become a specialist
in IR or understand the world in a global way?







In your 20s and 30s, your greatest commitment should
be to experience the world in the broadest way possible, which means learning
languages, traveling, and being open to new experiences. I think the kind of
vision that I had developed over the years was not one that I had originally
and the greatest influence on it was the time I spent in Ghana doing my
doctoral fieldwork; indeed, I have not had an experience that so genuinely
transformed me since!







Even so, I found it very difficult to write a book
based on that fieldwork. I moved from my ethnographic investigations into a
literature review of the political economy of West African agriculture, and it
turns out that I am actually not an ethnographer, and am more interested in
surveying literature concerning the questions that interest me. I am still an
acute observer of everyday life; but I don't base my 'research' on it. Young people
should both extend their comparative reach in a practical way and dig very
deeply into circumstances that they encounter, wherever that may be. Above all,
they should retain a sense of the uniqueness of their own life trajectory as
the only basis for doing something new. This matters more than any professional
training.











Now we see spectacular
growth rates in African countries, as you mentioned, one of which is the DRC.
How can we make sense of these formal growth rates: are they representative of
the whole economies of these countries, or do they only refer to certain
economic tendencies?







The whole question of measuring economic growth is a
technical one, and it's flawed, and I only use it in the vaguest sense as a
general indicator. For example, I think it's more important that Kenya, for
example, is the world leader in mobile phone banking, and also a leader in
recycling old computers for sale cheaply to poor people.







The political dispensation in Africa—the combination
of fragmented states and powerful foreign interests and the predatory actions
of the leaders of these states on their people -- especially the restrictions
they impose on the movements of people and goods and money and so on – is still
a tremendous problem. I think that the political fragmentation of Africa is the
main obstacle to achieving economic growth.







But at the same time, as someone who has lived in
Africa for many years, it's very clear that in some countries, certainly not
all, the economies are very significantly on the move. It's not--in principle—that
this will lead to durable economic growth, but it is the case that the cities
are expanding fast, Africans are increasing their disposable income and it's the
only part of the world where the people are growing so significantly. Africa is
about to enter what's called the demographic dividend that comes when the
active labor force exceeds the number of dependents. India has just gone
through a similar phase.







The Chinese and others are heavily committed to taking
part in this, obviously hoping to direct Africa's economic growth in their own
interest. This is partly because the global economy is over the period of
growth generated by the Chinese manufacturing exports and the entailed infrastructure
and construction boom, which was itself an effect of the greatest shift from the countryside to the city in history. Now, the Chinese
realize, the next such boom will be—can only take place—in Africa.







I'm actually not really interested in technical
questions of how to measure economic growth. In my own writing about African
development, I prefer anecdotes. Like for example, Nollywood—the Nigerian film industry—which has just past
Bollywood as the second largest in the world! You mention the Congo which I
believe holds the key to Africa's future. The region was full of economic
dynamism before King Leopold took it over and its people have shown great
resilience since Mobutu was overthrown and Rwandan and Ugandan generals took
over the minerals-rich Eastern Congo. Understanding this history is much more
important than measuring GDP, but statistics of this kind have their uses if
approached with care.











Is it possible to
understand the contemporary economic predicament that we are seeing, which in
the Western world is referred to as the "crisis", without attributing it to
vague agencies or mechanisms such as neoliberalism?







I have written at great length about the world
economic crisis paying special attention to the problems of the Eurozone. My belief
is that it is not simply a financial crisis or a debt crisis. We are actually
witnessing the collapse of the dominant economic form of the last century and a
half, which I call national capitalism—the attempt to control markets, money
and accumulation through central bureaucracies in the interests of a presumed
cultural community of national citizens.







The term neoliberalism is not particularly useful, but
I try to lay out the history of modern money and why and how national
currencies are in fact being replaced. That, to my mind, is a more precise way
of describing the crisis than calling it neoliberal. On the other hand, neoliberalism does refer to
the systematic privatization of public interests which has become normal over
the last three or four hundred years. The bourgeois revolution claimed to have
separated public and private interests, but I don't think it ever did so. For
example, the Bank of England, the Banque de France, and the Federal Reserve are
all private institutions that function behind a smokescreen of being public
agencies.







It's always been the case that private interests
corrupted public institutions and worked to deprive citizens of the ability to
act purposefully under an ideological veil of liberty. But in the past, they
tried to hide it. The public wasn't supposed to know what actually went on
behind the scenes and indeed modern social science was invented to ensure that
they never knew. What makes neoliberalism new is that they now boast about it
and even claim that it's in everyone's interest to diminish public goods and
use whatever is left for private ends—that's what neoliberalism is.







It's a naked grab for public resources and it's also a
shift in the fundamental dynamic of capitalism from production for profit
through sales tow varieties of rent-seeking. In fact, Western capitalism is now
a system for extracting rents, rather than producing profits. Rents are income
secured by political privilege such as the dividends of patents granted to Big
Pharma or the right to control distribution of recycled movies. This has got
nothing to do with competitive or free markets and much opposition to where we
are now is confused as a result. Sometimes I think western capitalism has
reverted to the Old Regime that it once replaced—from King George and the East
India Company to George W and Halliburton. If so, we need another liberal
revolution, but it won't take place in the North Atlantic societies.











In your recent work,
you refer to The Great Transformation, which invokes Karl Polanyi's famous
analysis of the
growth of 19th century capitalism and industrialization. How can Polanyi
help us to make sense of contemporary global economy, and where does this
inspiring work need to be complemented? In other words, what is today's Great Transformation
in light of Polanyi?







First of all, the
Great Transformation is a brilliant book. I have never known anyone who
didn't love it from the first reading. The great message of Polanyi's work is
the spirit in which he wrote that book, regardless of the components of his
theory. He had a passionate desire to explain the mess that world society had
reached by the middle of the 20th century, and he provided an
explanation. It's always been a source of inspiration for me.







A central idea of Polanyi's is that the economy was
always embedded in society and Victorian capitalism disembedded it. One problem
is that it is not clear whether the economy ever was actually disembedded (for
example capitalism is embedded in state institutions and the private social
networks mentioned just now) or whether the separation occurs at the level of
ideology, as in free market economics. Polanyi was not against markets as such,
but rather against market fundamentalism of the kind that swept Victorian
England and has us in its grip today. The political question is whether politics
can serve to protect society from the excesses produced by this disembedding;
or whether it lends itself to further separation of the economy from society.







And I would say that Polanyi's biggest failure was to
claim that what happened in the 19th century was the rise of "market
society". This concept misses entirely the bureaucratic revolution that was
introduced from the 1860s onwards based on a new alliance between capitalists
and landlords which led to a new synthesis of states and corporations aiming to
develop mass production and consumption. Polanyi could not anticipate what
actually happened after he wrote his book in 1944. An American empire of free
trade was built on a tremendous bureaucratic revolution. This drew on
techniques and theories of control developed while fighting a war on all
fronts. The same war was the source of the technologies that culminated late in
the digital revolution. Karl Polanyi's interpretation of capitalism as a market
economy doesn't help us much to understand that. In fact, he seems to have
thought that bureaucracy and planning were an antidote to capitalist market
economy.







If you ask me what is today's great transformation, I
would prefer to treat the last 200 years as a single event, that is, a period
in which the world population increased from one billion to seven billion, when
the proportion of people living in cities grew from under 3% to around half,
and where energy production increased on average 3% a year. The Great Transformation
is this leap of mankind from reliance on the land into living in cities. It has
been organized by a variety of institutions, including cities, capitalist
markets, nation-states, empires, regional federations, machine industry, telecommunications
networks, financial structures, and so on. I'm prepared to say that in the
twentieth century national capitalism was the dominant economic form, but by no
means all you need to know about if you want to make a better world.







I prefer to look at the economy as being organized by
a plural set of institutions, including various political forms. The Great Transformation
in Polanyi's sense was not really the same Great Transformation that Marx and
Engels observed in Victorian England—the idea that a new economic system was
growing up there that would transform the world. And it did! Polanyi and Marx
had different views (as well as some common ideas), but both missed what
actually happened, which is the kind of capitalism whose collapse is constitutes
the Great Transformation for us today. The last thirty years of financial
imperialism are similar to the three decades before the First World War. After
that phase collapsed, thirty years of world war and economic depression were
the result. I believe the same will happen to us! Maybe we can do something
about it, but only if our awareness is historically informed in a
contemporarily relevant way.











The distinction between
states and markets really underpins much of what we understand about the workings
of world economy and politics. Even when we just say "oh, that's not economic"
or "that's not rational", we invoke a separation. How can we deal with this
separation?







This state-market division comes back to the bourgeois
revolution, which was an attempt to win freedom from political interference for
private economic actors. I've been arguing that states and markets were always
in bed together right from the beginning thousands of years ago, and they still
are! The revolution of the mid 19th century involved a shift from
capitalists representing workers against the landed aristocracy to a new
alliance between them and the traditional enforcers to control the industrial
and criminal classes flocking into the cities. A series of linked revolutions
in all the main industrial countries during the 1860s and early 70s—from the
American civil war to the French Third Republic via the Meiji Restoration and
German unification—brought this alliance to power.







Modernity was thus a compromise between traditional
enforcers and industrial capitalists and this dualism is reflected in the
principal social form, the nation-state. This uneasy partnership has marked the
relationship between governments and corporations ever since. I think that we
are now witnessing a bid of the corporations for independence, for home rule,
if you like. Perhaps, having won control of the political process, they feel
than can go ahead to the next stage without relying on governments.  The whole discourse of 'corporate social responsibility'
implies that they could take on legal and administrative functions that had
been previously 'insourced' to states. It is part of a trend whereby the
corporations seek to make a world society in which they are the only citizens
and they no longer depend on national governments except for local police
functions. I think that it is a big deal—and this is happening under our noses!







Both politicians and economic theorists (OliverWilliamson got a Nobel prize for
developing Coase's theory of the form along these lines)
are proposing that we need to think again about what functions should be
internal to the firm and what should be outside. Perhaps it was a mistake to
outsource political control to states and war could be carried out by private
security firms. The ground for all of this was laid in the late 19th
century when the distinction in law between real and artificial persons was
collapsed for business enterprises so that the US Supreme Court can protect
corporate political spending in the name of preserving their human rights!
Corporations have greater wealth, power and longevity than individual citizens.
Until we can restore their legal separateness from the rest of humanity and
find the political means of restricting their inexorable rise, resistance will
be futile. There is a lot of intellectual and political work still to be done
and, as I have said, a lot of pain to come before more people confront the
reality of their situation.











What role do
technological innovations play in your understanding and promoting of shifts in
the way that we organize societies? Is it a passive thing or a driver of
change?







I wrote a book, the
Memory Bank: Money in an Unequal World
(read it here, with the introduction
here), which centered on a
very basic question: what would future generations consider is interesting
about us? In the late '90s, the dot com boom was the main game in town. It
seemed obvious that the rise of the internet was the most important thing and
that our responses to it would have significant consequences for future
generations.







When I started writing it, I was interested in the
democratic potential of the new media; but most of my friends saw them as a new
source of inequality – digital exclusion, dominance of the big players and so
on. I was accused of being optimistic, but I had absorbed from CLR James a
response to such claims. It is not a question of being optimistic or
pessimistic, but of identifying what the sides are in the struggle to define
society's trajectory. In this case the sides are bureaucracy and the people. Of
course the former wish to confine our lives within narrow limits that they
control in a process that culminates as totalitarianism. But the rest of us
want to increase the scope for self-expression in our daily lives; we want
democracy and the force of the peoples of world is growing, not least in Africa
which for so long has been excluded from the benefits of modern civilization.
Of course there are those who wish to control the potential of the internet
from the top; but everywhere people are making space for themselves in this
revolution. When I see how Africans have moved in the mobile phone phase of
this revolution, I am convinced that there is much to play for in this
struggle. What matters is to do your best for your side, not to predict which
side will win. Speaking personally, Web 2.0 has been an
unmitigated boon for me in networking and dissemination, although I am aware
that some think that corporate capital is killing off the internet. A lot depends
on your perspective. I grew up learning Latin and Greek grammar. The
developments of the last 2-3 decades seem like a miracle to me. I guess that
gives me some buoyancy if not optimism as such.







It's obvious enough to me that any democratic response
to the dilemmas we face must harness the potential of the new universal media.
That's the biggest challenge. But equally, it's not clear which side is going
to win. I'm not saying that our side, the democratic side, is going to beat the
bureaucratic side. I just know which side I'm on! And I'm going to do my best
for our side. Our side is the side that would harness the democratic potential
of the new media. In the decade or more since I wrote my book on money and the
internet, I have become more focused on the threat posed by the corporations
and more accepting of the role of governments. But that could change too. And I
am mindful of the role the positive role that some capitalists played in the
classical liberal revolutions of the United States, France and Italy.











Final Question. I would
like to ask you about the distinction between formal and informal economy which
you are famous for having coined. How did you arrive at the distinction? Does the
term, the dichotomy, still with have the same analytical value for you today?








Around 1970, there was a universal consensus that only states could organize economies for development. You were either a Marxist or a Keynesian, but there were no liberal economists with any influence at that time. In my first publication on the topic (Informal Income Opportunities and Urban Employment in Ghana, read it here, pdf)—which got picked up by academics and the International Labor Organization—I was reacting against that; the idea promoted by a highly formal economics and bureaucratic practice that the state as an idea as the only actor. In fact, people in Third World cities engaged in all kinds of economic activities, which just weren't recognized as such. So my impulse was really empiricist—to use my ethnographic observations to show that people were doing a lot more than they were supposed to be doing, as recorded in official statistics or discussed by politicians and economists.






Essentially, I made a distinction between those things
which were defined by formal regulation and those that lay outside it. I posed
the question how does it affect our understanding in the development process to
know more what people are doing outside the formal framework of the economy.
And remember, this came up in West Africa, which did not have as strong a colonial
tradition as in many other parts of Africa. African cities there were built and
provisioned by Africans. There were not enough white people there to build
these cities or to provide food and transport, housing, clothing and the rest
of it.







In my book on African agriculture, I went further and
argued that the cities were not the kind of engines of change that many people
imagined that they were, but were in fact an extension of rural civilizations
that had effectively not been displaced by colonialism, at least in that
region. Now if you ask me how useful I think it is today, what happened since
then of course is neoliberal globalization, for want of a better term, which of
course hinges on deregulation. So, as a result of neoliberal deregulation, vast
areas of the economy are no longer shaped by law, and these include many of the
activities of finance, including offshore banking, hedge funds, shadow banking,
tax havens, and so on. It also includes the criminal activities of the
corporations themselves. I've written a paper on my blog called "How the
informal economy took over the world" which argues that we are witnessing the
collapse of the post-war Keynesian consensus that sought to manage the economy in
the public interest through law and in other ways that have been dismantled; so,
it's a free-for-all. In some sense, the whole world is now an informal economy,
which means, of course, that the term is not as valuable analytically as it
once was. If it's everything, then we need some new words.







The mistake I made with other people who followed me was
to identify the informal economy with poor slum dwellers. I argued that even
for them, they were not only in the informal economy, which was not a separate
place, but that all of them combined the formal and informal in some way. But
what I didn't pay much attention to was the fact that the so-called formal
economy was also the commanding heights of the informal economy—that the
politicians and the civil servants were in fact the largest informal operators.
I realize that any economy must be informal to some degree, but it is also
impossible for an economy to be entirely informal. There always have to be
rules, even if they take a form that we don't acknowledge as being
bureaucratically normal like, for example, kinship or religion or criminal
gangs. So that's another reason why it seems to me that the distinction has
lost its power.







At the time, it was a valuable service to point to the
fact that many people were doing things that were escaping notice. But once
what they were doing had been noticed, then the usefulness of the distinction
really came into question. I suppose in retrospect that the idea of an informal
economy was a gesture towards realism, to respect what people really do in the
spirit of ethnography. I have taken that idea to another level recently in mywork on the human economy at the University of Pretoria in South Africa. Here, in addition to
privileging the actors' point of view and their everyday lives, we wish to
address the human predicament at more inclusive levels than the local or even
the national. Accordingly, our interdisciplinary research program (involving a
dozen postdocs from around the world, including Africa, and 8 African doctoral
students) seeks ways of extending our conceptual and empirical reach to take in
world society and humanity as a whole. This is easier said than done, of
course.







Keith
Hart is Extraordinary Visiting Professor in the Centre for the Advancement of
Scholarship and Co-Director of the Human Economy Program at the University of
Pretoria, South Africa. He is also centennial professor of Economic Anthropology at the LSE.











Related links










Faculty Profile at U-London


Personal webpage


Read Hart's Notes towards an Anthropology of the Internet (2004, Horizontes Antropológicos) here (pdf)


Read Hart's Marcel Mauss: In Pursuit of a Whole (2007, Comparative Studies in Society and History) here (pdf)


Read Hart's Between Democracy and the People: A Political History of Informality (2008 DIIS working paper) here (pdf)


Read Hart's Why the Eurocrisis Matters to Us All (Scapegoat Journal) here (pdf)









Print version of this Talk (pdf)

Density or Intensity?There is much debate about how to measure density – dwellings per hectare, bedrooms per hectare or people per hectare; including or excluding major highways, parks and open spaces; the permanent population only or the transient one too?While this gives urban planners something to disagree about it risks missing the point: great urban places are not created by density; they are created by intensity.And the difference matters. When people describe the buzz of a marketplace they do not say, "Wow - it was so dense!". They are much more likely to say how intense it was. Density is a word used by planners. Intensity is a word that real people use, and perhaps because it describes the outcomes that people experience rather than the inputs that have gone in to creating them. It is the outcomes that are ultimately more important. But planning professionals like density. Even though density fails to capture the essence of what it feels like to be somewhere, the term appeals to professional instincts. It describes the raw ingredients that planners have to handle and, once you choose which version of the formula you are going to use, density is easy to measure. It involves a simple calculation of straightforward urban quantities such as the number of people, the number of houses or the number of bedrooms, all divided by the geographic area over which those ingredients occur. Easy.In contrast, intensity seems more difficult to pin down, not least because it appears to have a subjectively emotional dimension; it speaks of feelings, of responses, of stimuli, and this raises problems about how it can be effectively measured. But intensity is also a response to context, to place and above all to people - and here we can find clues to its measurement.Observing IntensitySo what are the factors that people are responding to when they instinctively feel the intensity of a great place? For a start, they can not be calculating a planner's measure of urban density because, even if they were so minded, they could not possibly know about populations and geographic areas when they are walking along a street or sitting at a café table on a public space.What people can respond to though is what is happening around them in the public realm: they can see how many other people there are, and they can see what these people are up to. In other words, intensity is obvious, immediate and instinctively calculable to the person in the street: not only the mobile population of walkers, drivers and cyclists but also the immobile population of sitters, leaners and pausers. Intensity has a static as well as a kinetic dimension. Indeed the stationary people are the essential ingredient of intensity. They are the people who have chosen to be there, to add to the place through their semi-permanence and not simply to pass through on the way to somewhere else. Intensity is not therefore about the population density of an area but the population that is participating in the public realm of an area. And this should be obvious. And everyday. But any attempt to emphasise the benefits of static participation runs counter to the mindset of the traffic engineer and counter to the still-persuasive, kinetic legacy of Le Corbusier, who described "grinding gears and burning gasoline" as the pleasurable objectives of the Plan Voisin.Nevertheless, intense places are sticky places and especially so when people are not only co-present in space but when they are also interacting: talking to each other, sharing thoughts, ideas, opinions. This is the essence of intensity; there is an exchange - a transaction – be it economic, social, cultural, intellectual, factual or simply facile. It is the daily public life of every thriving village, town and city. It is so apparently unremarkable as to go unnoticed, unobserved and unmeasured. Until it is not there. And that is when you feel it most clearly.A number of years ago my colleagues at Space Syntax were working on a sample of towns across the UK, some historic and some new. The towns had similar residential populations and similar retail floorspace provisions across similar geographical areas; in other words, similar densities. But what the team had also done was to count the numbers of people using the centres of each town: how many were walking and sitting in public space. They had counted over several days, from morning until evening. What they found was that the historic towns consistently had many more people using their centres than the new ones - and they knew from other evidence that the historic towns had stronger economic performances. Here then were places with similar urban densities but different intensities of human activity.What seemed to explain the differences between historic and new towns were first, the spatial layout and second, the street design of each place. The historic towns were laid out around radial streets that were designed to carry cars as well as vehicles and which met at the centre of the town in a public space. Behind these radial streets were more or less continuously connected grids of residential streets, interrupted by the occasional large open space. Both cars and pedestrians could use the residential streets, while the open spaces were generally for pedestrians only. There was some limited pedestrianisation in the very centre of each town.In contrast, the new towns often had separate street networks for vehicles and pedestrians, no high street or central public space and usually one or two enclosed shopping malls. Their central areas were typically pedestrianised and spatially separated from the surrounding residential areas by a vehicle-only ring road; these residential areas were separated from each other by large swathes of open space.To summarise, the key differences were first in the intensity of the human experience and second in the design of the street network. Intensity, it seems, is facilitated by an alignment of physical and spatial factors: having the movement-sensitive land uses on sufficiently well-connected streets that are, in the main, shared by vehicles and pedestrians.Measuring IntensityImportantly, both the amount of human activity and the degree of street connectivity are measurable commodities – if you know how. This is the professional specialism of my practice, Space Syntax, and it has two key parts: one part that takes place in the studio, using purpose-designed software that measures the amount of connectivity in street grids and the other part that happens on site using some form of counting device. This device may be a camera strapped to a lamp post or, in recent years, a drone flight. Or it may simply be a set of human eyes, a pencil and a notepad. Onto these 'foundational' datasets are added other information, which might be about air quality, land value, crime rates or health outcomes. Statistical software is employed to explore relations between the datasets: how is health or wealth or educational achievement related to spatial connectivity or isolation? The product of this process is an Integrated Urban Model: a quantitative record of urban form and urban performance. A Geographical Information System is used to hold the datasets in one place and a basic form of artificial intelligence is run to explore the links between the data.However it is possible to create a primitive version of a data platform using only PowerPoint and Excel. After all, Space Syntax began its work before the Macintosh, before colour screens, before the internet, before CAD, before GIS and long before BIM. Its observations of pedestrian movements around Trafalgar Square were done with pen and paper, the results coded manually into a simple drawing programme.What matters today is what mattered then: to bring data to life using maps and colours rather than spreadsheets and charts. To make it accessible to the audiences that will be making judgments about the future of places: investors, planning officers, politicians and local communities. Measures of intensity therefore need to speak to multiple audiences and not least to the design community, into whose creative hands is entrusted the responsibility for shaping the aspirations of stakeholders. An Integrated Urban Model must be nimble, capable of responding again and again to the short and intensive programme of a rapid design process. Beware the Smart City "Control Room" stuffed with technicians; eintegratedmbrace instead a portable platform that can respond to the timescale of a creative whim.Creating a Profession of "Urban Intensity Surveyors"So why do we not measure towns and cities in such a systematic way? Why is there not a profession of urban intensity surveyors? And a culture among architects and urban planners of designing for intense human interactions?The problems start when the responsibility for thinking about cities, streets and public spaces moves from the individual enjoying the buzz of the boulevard to the collective of professional institutes charged with creating place. Density prevails over intensity and we revert to simplifications. Assumptions are made - incorrectly as we have seen - that the quality of street life will be in direct proportion to the density of people in an area. That if we have more people then the streets will be busier and the busier the streets, the better the place. But then the counter view is quite reasonably made that people need quiet streets and so densities should not be too high. And a compromise is eventually reached for neither super high nor super low densities; neither towns that are too big nor too small. And if we need big towns then they should be broken up into manageable parcels. Since we want pedestrians then we should pedestrianise.We end up with an urbanism of averages and a morphology of enclaves through an approach that is much too simplistic to ever create great place. It is not born of science and it does not reflect human experience: people know instinctively that you can turn off the busiest street in the city and immediately find yourself on a lane that is one of the quietest; that the intensity of the urban experience can transform itself in seconds. This is one of the great joys of exploring great cities: they are not pervasively busy; they are intensely quiet as well. They have a foreground grid of busy streets and a background grid of quiet ones. If we can systematically measure urban intensity then we will understand how towns and cities work in ways that will transform practice. And by transforming practice we will transform place.The Future for IntensityThe professions will be unwise to avoid the opportunities presented by technology. Both the technologies of data capture, visualisation and analysis as well as the technologies that are affecting human behaviours: broadband, social media, augmented reality (AR) and artificial intelligence (AI). Human activity is becoming ever more intense and this gives us another reason to systematically measure urban intensity. People are walking more slowly, ensconced in virtual worlds at the same time as participating in physical space; seeing their surroundings augmented with pop-up information. The trend will continue as AR on our smartphones becomes AR on our spectacles. As well as talking to each other we will be talking to objects on display in shops, to screens in buildings and on streets, and to ourselves – our digital twin may appear as an avatar walking alongside us in our peripheral vision or in front of us when trying on clothes for us. This intensity of communication can already be seen in early adopting countries, especially China, and it may seem strange at first. But there was a time, not long ago, when it seemed strangely ostentatious to put down a mobile phone on a table in a public place.The brain has a finite processing capacity and so what goes into handling increased visual information will have to be taken away from the control of bodily function. People may therefore adapt to the amplified intensity of visual stimuli by moving ever more slowly. We will need more space for these intense activities and the obvious place is the street, where we will need more space for people. Road space will have to narrow and footways will have to widen. We will need more places to sit and lean - to be sticky.And this presents a choice for designers: continue to disagree about the best way to measure density or embrace intensity and anticipate the radical transformation of place.

Negli archivi europei un cercatore di immagini può davvero diventare il pescatore del mare di cui Hannah Arendt parla a proposito di Walter Benjamin collezionista, cioè di Benjamin storico. In breve, di Benjamin filosofo della storia. In particolare, si tratta di sapersi immergere, saper andare al fondo di un patrimonio fotografico enorme che mostra fin dal primo sguardo – e di sguardo si tratterà in modo esteso – una straordinaria accumulazione di immagini di guerra. La relazione tra fotografia e guerra, infatti, è stata sottolineata da molti pensatori e filosofi – e dallo stesso Benjamin –, ma anche da artisti e sperimentatori di tecniche fotografiche del XX secolo, e in particolare, da una gran parte di teorici di quella che dagli anni '70 è stata definita Visual Culture. Questi studi hanno riconosciuto nella produzione iconografica della Prima Guerra mondiale il momento-zero, l'inizio effettivo della fascinazione della fotografia per la guerra. O viceversa. In effetti, la produzione fotografica dei Servizi preposti dagli Eserciti e la produzione privata – intima – di soldati amatori si realizzano come fenomeno del tutto nuovo dell'esperienza di guerra e si caratterizzano per due aspetti che in questa ricerca si riconoscono fondamentali proprio sul piano del metodo di lavoro e di studio con cui si procede all'analisi: una inedita volontà documentaria dell'esperienza della trincea e una straordinaria necessità di produzione e riproduzione di immagini ad uso delle masse. Definire nel mare di fonti per la Prima Guerra mondiale un oggetto preciso ed efficace di studio è stato per questi due motivi particolarmente difficile ma è su quell'oggetto che si concentra lo scavo archeologico – o la pesca miracolosa – alla ricerca dei caratteri peculiari e in qualche modo "originari" del fenomeno novecentesco di fascinazione per la guerra da parte dello sguardo e dunque del dispositivo fotografico, nodi centrali della riflessione. Dunque, la necessità di lavorare su un corpus il più coerente e riconoscibile possibile, il problema dei diritti di consultazione e riproduzione dei materiali fotografici – problema dovuto a questioni di fragilità materiale della fonte e a questioni di risorse economiche degli istituti di conservazione – e la difficoltà di poterli analizzare, tutto questo obbliga il ricercatore, e allo stesso tempo lo invita, a operare una scelta, a restringere il campo il più possibile. Qui si è trattato di fare i conti con un oggetto che fosse da un lato riconoscibile – le generalizzazioni non sono quasi mai permesse o giustificabili – ma dall'altro anche estendibile – la pratica fotografica nel corso del primo conflitto mondiale viene continuamente descritta come comune a tutti gli schieramenti, su tutti i fronti, sottoposta a dinamiche censorie e politiche propagandistiche pressoché identiche per tutti i Paesi coinvolti nel conflitto. A questi due criteri di scelta, ha risposto con maggiore aderenza un gruppo di circa sessanta album fotografici prodotti dalla Sezione Fotografica dell'Esercito italiano e conservati presso l'Archivio Centrale del Risorgimento di Roma, già a partire dalla fine del conflitto per volontà dell'allora Ministro di Unità Nazionale Paolo Boselli. L'attenzione di allora per questo tipo di pratiche e produzione in tempo di guerra, e l'attenzione di oggi per la loro conservazione e fruizione in vista del centenario della Grande Guerra, hanno aggiunto a questa ricerca almeno due nuovi aspetti da tenere in conto, sia sul piano del metodo sia su quello delle considerazioni generali. Da una parte infatti, questo corpus è al centro di un progetto di digitalizzazione degli archivi iconografici e dei documenti della Grande Guerra condiviso e portato avanti da diversi istituti e enti di conservazione in Italia – si veda il sito www.14-18.it – sul modello di una più ampia progettazione telematica di stampo europeo – si veda il sito www.europeana.eu. Dall'altra, il fatto di essere alle porte del centenario del conflitto rimette straordinariamente in funzione retoriche e contenuti di un discorso nazionale identitario che si vuole fondare proprio sull'accessibilità diffusa a mezzo internet di fonti considerate popolari e fruibili acriticamente, come le immagini dal fronte. Si tratta quindi, sul piano metodologico di un tentativo di "salvare" il patrimonio di fotografie al centro dello studio da una morte "etica", dall'oblio dovuto a una fruizione troppo semplificata – l'interfaccia virtuale e l'infinita rete di link e connessioni possibili; emanciparlo da un uso semplicistico della fotografia come fonte per la storia – spesso decorazione della pagina o illustrazione di posizioni teoriche già stabilite; e in questo periodo, anche liberarlo dalle celebrazioni nazional-patriottiche, dalla riattivazione di ambigue e pericolose retoriche identitarie. Ma, allo stesso tempo, sul piano della Visual Culture di contribuire a rendere questi materiali un archivio aperto, un «archivio potenziale» e disponibile a una consultazione che vada al di là di una pretesa interpretazione ufficiale della Grande Guerra; indagare quindi i piani produttivi della ripetizione delle immagini, il montaggio stesso come dispositivo fotografico più o meno codificato nelle pagine dell'album, la possibilità stessa della loro riproduzione massificata per il tramite di altri strumenti di propaganda e d'informazione durante e dopo il conflitto. Nella prima parte della tesi quindi – la cui struttura generale si compone di quattro macro-sezioni di cui l'ultima è l'album-catalogo fotografico di materiali scelti – si è trattato di riflettere con attenzione sulla natura di questo archivio: una natura doppia, materiale e virtuale innanzitutto; ma anche rigida e ufficiale eppure aperta e passibile di manipolazioni, scomposizioni, connessioni virtuali. In questo senso, nel primo capitolo sono trattate anche le questioni relative alle caratteristiche proprie dell'album e delle singole immagini come oggetti-dispositivi fotografici a sé stanti; alle modalità e alle politiche coeve e recenti di accumulazione, conservazione e fruizione che li hanno prodotti e riprodotti. Tutto questo permette ci concepire il corpus degli album fotografici ufficiali come un archivio in se stesso – strutturalmente simile, come si è accennato prima, agli altri corpus dello stesso genere – nel quale cercare le caratteristiche di base di un materiale prodotto per documentare le attività dell'Esercito da una parte, e per essere diffuso attraverso la stampa di guerra e i giornali popolari, dall'altra. Questi aspetti che si iscrivono in un discorso sull'estetica della politica e della violenza di guerra – ovvero di una violenza legittimata dal monopolio del potere costituito e dalle pratiche stesse della sua circolazione propagandistica – nelle società europee coeve, sono elementi essenziali di una riflessione più ampia sulla visualità della guerra come esperienza percettiva e come espressione culturale – la Visual Culture in senso largo – dal suo debutto all'inizio del XIX secolo. Esiste infatti, una forte caratterizzazione della produzione fotografica nel milieu della guerra che sembra – ed è qui che si trova il nodo dell'analisi – influenzare la relazione tra fotografia e guerra e, di qui, tra esperienza della realtà novecentesca come di una «guerra totale» e la sua riproduzione tecnica che ne moltiplica le visioni fino a identificarla come fenomeno originario, matrice della storia contemporanea, esperienza collettiva e continuativa dell'individuo attore-spettatore del disastro. La seconda macro-sezione del lavoro si concentra quindi sul doppio binario di questo fenomeno spettatoriale nato nella trincea della Grande Guerra: doppio perché da un lato resta ancorato alla sua fonte – l'album fotografico e la fotografia come dispositivo – ma dall'altro, si eleva al livello teorico delle riflessioni e delle teorie sulla percezione, sui media nell'accezione benjaminiana di Apparatur, sull'antropologia della guerra seguendo una linea che parte proprio da Benjamin e da quanti – artisti e non – riflettono sul tema a partire già dagli anni '20 e '30. In modo particolare, il terzo capitolo della tesi cerca di fare il punto delle diverse prospettive e pratiche di manipolazione fotografica che prendono avvio proprio dall'esperienza e dal patrimonio iconografico della Grande Guerra per riflettere e riprodurre un sapere visuale sulla realtà, sul mondo e, in senso critico, sulle sue trasformazioni: naturalmente, il confronto sul dispositivo fotografico tra Benjamin e Kracauer e le opposte scuole di pensiero dell'avanguardia artistica tedesca, la più prolifica da queste punto di vista per quanto riguarda le pratiche e le tecniche di produzione, riproduzione e (foto)montaggio del materiale fotografico di guerra (Moholy-Nagy e Renger-Patzsch; Friedrich, Tucholsky e Heartfield). Questo capitolo si presenta infatti come un atlante dei maggiori fenomeni di produzione culturale in ambito visuale all'inizio del Novecento che sottolineano in modo esemplare – ed è questo ciò che s'intende di-mostrare – la stretta relazione tra cultura contemporanea e visualità e tra questa e l'esperienza della guerra moderna. Nelle trincee europee sembra prodursi infatti, una relazione ottica tra l'uomo e la realtà che dà luogo a una serie straordinaria di punti di vista sulla catastrofe, sulla rovina, sull'orizzonte (di senso), del tutto nuovi e sintomatici della condizione delle masse umane di fronte alla guerra totale di cui il primo conflitto mondiale rappresenta il vero esordio. Due elementi che si ritrovano nell'accostamento del lavoro sugli album fotografici della Grande Guerra e quello sull'atlante di immagini da Warburg a Jünger: da un lato, il profilo del ricercatore; dall'altro, la natura frammentata dell'oggetto che pure si tiene per l'intervento produttivo della disposizione delle immagini. Per quanto riguarda la figura del ricercatore, il pescatore di coralli nel mare della storia del XX secolo che all'inizio assomigliava a Benjamin, assume qui alcuni caratteri di un altro manipolatore di immagini interessato ai resti e ai fenomeni conflittuali della cultura e dell'antropologia visuale: Aby Warburg de «La guerra del 1914-1915. Rivista illustrata» e in parte, del Bilderatlas Mnemosyne; l'Ernst Jünger del «sillabario del mondo mutato» dalla «mobilitazione totale». L'esperienza della trincea rappresenta per questi due pensatori, il momento nel quale la percezione sensibile "omogenea" e pacificata – messa intanto in crisi già alla fine dell'800 – e, di conseguenza, la riproduzione tecnica dei suoi fenomeni sensibili – in particolare sul piano della visione – esplodono con lo scoppio della Grande Guerra e si dispiegano nello spazio terribile ma evidentemente prolifico di un'«urna» di terra. Nella terza sezione del lavoro, ci si impegna direttamente nello scavo metodologico dentro l'esperienza materiale della trincea, seguendo l'esempio del filosofo francese Paul Virilio di fronte ai bunker eretti sulle coste francesi nel corso della seconda guerra mondiale e i suoi studi sulla normalizzazione culturale delle pratiche e delle strategie militari della visibilità come regime che dura fino a noi, passando per alcuni aspetti centrali dell'antropologia fenomenologica di Hans Blumenberg e dell'antropologia delle immagini di Hans Belting e Georges Didi-Huberman. Questa parte del lavoro si presenta come quella più impegnativa sul piano dell'analisi dei concetti teorici di riferimento e della loro rielaborazione nel caso di studio. Un'intuizione porta direttamente dentro questo materiale prolificante di immagini – apparentemente omogenee e generalmente incapaci di sorprenderci: è possibile vedere dentro questo volume enorme di fotografie uno dei regimi scopici di cui si parla a proposito dello statuto dell'uomo come spettatore? Si può parlare dell'esperienza visuale della Prima Guerra mondiale e della sua riproduzione tecnica massmediatica come del momento-zero di una trasformazione antropologica che sposta – o meglio spiazza – l'uomo dalla sua posizione d'osservatore a distanza e pacificato del disastro – del naufragio di Blumenberg che diventa conflitto – in una posizione più complessa e problematica, allo stesso tempo di spettatore/attore, soggetto dello sguardo e della camera dentro il terreno stesso del disastro? È nel quinto capitolo di questa sezione del lavoro che si osserva appunto questo spiazzamento, questa dislocazione del soggetto insieme a quella delle immagini e dei punti di osservazione che nelle fotografie si individuano e da cui permettono di essere analizzate. Le fotografie infatti mostrano i meccanismi del montaggio originale – spesso dovuti a scelte casuali e a pratiche di mera accumulazione e catalogazione – e esse stesse si offrono alla possibilità di «emanciparsi» dal racconto stabilito sulla pagina che diventa terreno di lavoro e di ricerca ogni volta nuovo: un campo di stratificazioni archeologiche della Visual Culture del '900. Trattare album fotografici "aperti" allora, pagine nere per lo più sulle quali si dispongono centinaia di immagini di guerra disponibili ad essere manipolate, offre lo spazio e la possibilità appunto di analizzare i dettagli, di soffermarsi sugli intervalli dovuti alla sovrapposizione di riquadri e cornici – della trincea, della camera fotografica, dell'immagine, dell'ordine del montaggio –, di seguire così percorsi rizomatici e missing links – dovuti anche alla fruizione digitale in rete – che indicano le ripetizioni, le moltiplicazioni e le manipolazioni alle quali sono state sottoposte fin dall'inizio. Infine, dunque, la quarta sezione, costituita dall'album-catalogo fotografico prodotto nel corso dell'analisi dei materiali. Come momento nel quale l'album-archivio e l'archivio di album si aprono diventando materiale potenziale di ulteriori ridisposizioni, il lavoro sulle immagini trova alcuni richiami metodologici fondamentali – per quanto nella sostanza differenti e iscritti dentro pratiche e dispositivi con una propria natura e identità visuale – con l'atlante e il lavoro del montatore di immagini sulla placca nera del suo progetto. Nella visibilità frammentata, mutilata, eterogenea e ossimorica della guerra di trincea, si possono ritrovare dunque in nuce aspetti straordinariamente convincenti della natura visuale della Grande Guerra e quindi, della cesura causata da questa esperienza lunga, terrificante e collettiva, nella collocazione dello spettatore contemporaneo rispetto allo svolgersi del disastro, anche e soprattutto per il tramite del dispositivo fotografico prima, e della sua riproduzione tecnica poi. L'immagine della guerra, il paesaggio dell'assenza e del disastro, il vuoto delle rovine, le ferite delle trincee e dei corpi, lo sguardo mutilato e quasi vietato dello spettatore, la perdita di orizzonte e, allo stesso tempo, la conquista continua di nuovi spazi e punti di vista per una visione spesso caratterizzata dall'apparizione dell'invisibile, si emancipano dal limite dell'album per proporre nel sesto e ultimo capitolo una mise en abîme della geografia del taglio, della cesura, della ferita che vede la sovrapposizione dell'esperienza percettiva del disastro, della sua riproduzione e, infine, della sua accumulazione come patrimonio di una memoria visuale collettiva.

Anders Hellberg, Greta Thunberg 4, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ironischerweise ist es der 3. März 2023, ein Freitag, an dem ich beginne, diese Arbeit zu schreiben. Fridays for Future hat zum globalen Klimastreik aufgerufen. Wieder einmal gehen in ganz Deutschland und auf der ganzen Welt Menschen für gerechte Klimapolitik auf die Straße. Bundesweit kamen an mehr als 250 Orten über 220.000 Menschen zusammen (vgl. Tagesschau 2023). Mit dem Beginn der Fridays for Future-Bewegung brach sowohl in Deutschland als auch auf der ganzen Welt eine neue Ära der Klimabewegung an. Die von Schüler:innen ausgehende Bewegung traf und trifft auf breite gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz. In kürzester Zeit entstanden nicht nur in Ballungszentren Ortsgruppen von Fridays for Future.Allgemein ist es üblich, groß angelegte Demonstrationen und Proteste auf Landeshauptstädte und andere große Städte zu bündeln. Dies hat mehrere Vorteile. Es kommen mehr Menschen zusammen aufgrund der Tatsache, dass große Städte viele Einwohner*innen haben. Diese Städte sind aus den umliegenden Regionen gut erreichbar, sie bieten den nötigen Platz, die Infrastruktur und der Protest wird stärker wahrgenommen. Doch schon lange wird nicht mehr nur in den großen Städten demonstriert, mittlerweile gibt es deutschlandweit über 500 Ortsgruppen von Fridays for Future (Fridays for Future o.J. a), viele davon auch in kleineren Gemeinden. Klimaprotest hat also seinen Weg in ländliche Regionen gefunden. Hiermit stellt sich nun die Frage, welche Chancen diese neue Form des Protests bietet und vor welchen Herausforderung die Fridays for Future-Ortsgruppen in ländlichen Regionen stehen?Die folgende Arbeit ist in drei Abschnitte unterteilt, im ersten Abschnitt wird die Fridays for Future-Bewegung beleuchtet, auf die daraus entstandene Bewegung in Deutschland und auf die Fridays for Future-Ortsgruppe Weil der Stadt eingegangen. Im zweiten Abschnitt wird die Methodik, ein Interview, welches der Arbeit zu Grunde liegt, präsentiert, eingeordnet und die Vermutungen, auf denen das Interview basiert, aufgezeigt. Im dritten Abschnitt werden die Erkenntnisse hinsichtlich der Frage nach den Herausforderungen und Chancen präsentiert.Fridays for FutureAm Montag, den 20. August 2018, setzt sich die Schülerin Greta Thunberg vor das schwedische Parlamentsgebäude und streikt für gerechte Klimapolitik und weltweiten Klimaschutz (vgl. Fopp 2021, S. 7). In den darauffolgenden drei Wochen bis zu den schwedischen Wahlen sitzt sie jeden Tag vor dem Parlamentsgebäude und streikt. Ausgestattet mit ihrem heute weltbekannten Schild mit der Aufschrift 'SKOLSTREJK FÖR KLIMATET' (Schulstreik für das Klima) und einem A4-Blatt, voll mit wissenschaftlichen Fakten über die Auswirkungen menschlichen Handelns in den letzten fünfzig Jahren auf unsere Umwelt und das Klima (vgl. Fopp 2021, S. 27-28).Nach und nach beteiligten sich auch andere Jugendliche an dem Protest. Es entstand eine Bewegung und am 7. September, dem Tag vor der schwedischen Wahl, gaben Greta Thunberg und die mitstreikenden Jugendlichen Morrigan, Edit und Mina gemeinsam in einem Park bekannt, ab sofort jeden Freitag zu streiken, bis die Regierung auf Linie mit dem Pariser Klimaabkommen sei. Sie riefen andere dazu auf, dasselbe zu tun. Kurz darauf postete Greta Thunberg ihren Aufruf unter dem Hashtag #FridaysForFuture im Internet (vgl. Fopp 2021, S. 31-32). Am 13. September 2018 kam es so zum weltweit ersten offiziellen Freitagsstreik unter dem Motto Fridays for Future (vgl. Fopp 2021, S. 7).Fridays for Future (FFF) ist keine Organisation und auch kein Verein, sondern eine weltweite Basisbewegung, die sich aus dem Aufruf von Greta Thunberg und dem Hashtag #FridaysForFuture entwickelte. Die Forderungen von FFF sind im Kern sehr bescheiden, jedoch gleichzeitig auch sehr ehrgeizig (vgl. Sommer et al. 2019, S. 2). Denn grundsätzlich fordern sie nichts weiter als"die auf dem Pariser Klimagipfel Ende 2015 [selbst] gesetzten Ziele zur weltweiten Reduktion von CO2-Emmissionen einzuhalten, um die damit verbundene Erderwärmung auf einen Anstieg von maximal 1,5 Grad zu begrenzen" (Sommer et al. 2019, S. 2).Bescheiden ist dieses Ziel deshalb, weil sich die Regierungen der Welt sowieso schon dazu bekannt haben (vgl. Sommer et al. 2019, S. 2). Eigentlich sollte also schon alles für die Erreichung dieses Ziels getan werden und es sollten keine Proteste erforderlich sein. Ehrgeizig ist es, weil die Umsetzung mit tiefen Einschnitten in Industrie, Energiewirtschaft, Gebäudesektor und Landwirtschaft verbunden ist. Zusätzlich verlangt die Erreichung von der Gesamtbevölkerung einen mit erheblichen Einschränkungen verbundenen ökologisch verträglichen Lebens- und Konsumstil (vgl. ebd. S. 2).Aufmerksam auf die Forderungen machte und macht FFF durch eine simple, aber raffinierte Idee - den Klimastreik. Diese Klimastreiks sind nämlich nicht nur eine normale Form von Demonstrationen, sondern, wie der Name schon sagt, ein Streik fürs Klima. Bestreikt wird dabei die Schule - und zwar jeden Freitag. Dies zog rasch die gewünschte mediale und gesellschaftliche Aufmerksamkeit auf sich, führte jedoch auch dazu, dass in der öffentlichen Debatte schnell über Schulschwänzen fürs Klima gesprochen wurde (vgl. Deutschlandfunk 2019). Heutzutage finden die Streiks zwar noch immer freitags, jedoch nicht mehr nur während der Schulzeit statt. Beispielsweise begann der Globale Klimastreik vom 3. März 2023 in vielen Orten Deutschlands weit nach 13:00 Uhr (vgl. Fridays for Future o.J. b).Am 15. März 2019 kam es zum ersten globalen Klimastreik von FFF, koordiniert durch ein internationales Team, an dem sich laut Angaben der Organisator*innen weltweit 1.789.235 Menschen beteiligten (vgl. Sommer et al. 2019, S. 3), wobei die Berichte über die genauen Zahlen stark variieren. Fridays for Future Deutschland veröffentlichte am Tag danach einen Kurzbericht, in dem von über einer Million junger Menschen weltweit und mehr als 2000 Orten und Städten in 125 Ländern gesprochen wird (vgl. Fridays for Future 2019 a), während die Kennzahlen in einer späteren Veröffentlichung des Statista Research Departments bei weltweit knapp 2,3 Millionen Menschen in rund 2.400 Städten und über 130 Staaten liegen (vgl. Statista 2022).Fridays for Future Deutschland
Leonhard Lenz, Wir sind hier, wir sind laut, weil ihr unsere Zukunft klaut, Berlin, 25.01.2019 (cropped), CC0 1.0
Der Startschuss der FFF Bewegung in Deutschland wurde im Dezember 2018 durch einzelne kleine Demonstrationen in Berlin, Freiburg, Göttingen, Flensburg und Kiel gesetzt. Frühe, aber zu Beginn voneinander unabhängige Initiator*innen waren der damals 19-jährige Kieler Gymnasiast Jakob Blasel und die damals 22-jährige Studentin Luisa Neubauer (vgl. Sommer et al. 2019, S. 2). Beide sind heute noch bekannte Klimaaktivisti, wobei Luisa Neubauer wohl die bekanntere von beiden ist. Sie ist noch heute eine der Hauptorganisator*innen und das wohl bekannteste Gesicht von FFF Deutschland. Gerne wird sie als das deutsche Pendant zu Greta Thunberg betitelt (vgl. Merkur.de 2019).Rückblickend kann der 18. Januar 2019 als eigentlicher Auftakt der FFF Bewegung in Deutschland gesehen werden. Laut FFF beteiligten sich an diesem Tag 25.000 Menschen an 50 Orten in Deutschland an den Klimastreiks, darunter allein 4.000 in Freiburg. Die Zahl der Ortsgruppen wuchs schnell, so konnten 2019 schon Mitte Februar 155 Ortsgruppen von Fridays for Future in Deutschland gelistet werden (vgl. Sommer et al. 2019, S. 2).Am ersten globalen Klimastreik am 15. März 2019 nahmen in Deutschland laut FFF an 230 Orten und Städten mehr als 300.000 Menschen teil (vgl. Fridays for Future 2019 a). Dieser große Erfolg konnte nicht durchgängig gehalten werden und die Zahlen der Teilnehmenden schwankten stark. Vor allem während der Schul- und Semesterferien schrumpften diese, was in Anbetracht dessen, dass es sich bei den Protestierenden größtenteils um Schüler*innen und Studierende handelte, nicht verwunderlich ist (vgl. Sommer et al. 2019, S. 3).Das gesellschaftliche Interesse an den Protesten von FFF flachte jedoch nicht ab und auch verhältnismäßig kleinere Aktionen schafften es in den Fokus der medialen Berichterstattung (vgl. ebd. S. 3). Ihren Höhepunkt erreichte die deutsche FFF-Bewegung zum dritten globalen Klimastreik am 20. September 2019. Deutschlandweit gingen an diesem Tag in 575 Orten und Städten unter dem Motto #AlleFürsKlima 1,4 Millionen Menschen auf die Straße (vgl. Fridays for Future 2019 b).Eine Vielzahl dieser Proteste ist nur dank der vielen Ortsgruppen, welche man auch als Basis von FFF bezeichnen kann, möglich (vgl. Sommer et al. 2019, S. 5). Sie tragen dazu bei, auch in kleinen Städten und Dörfern ein Zeichen für Klimaschutz zu setzen. So auch die Fridays for Future Ortsgruppe Weil der Stadt, zentraler Gegenstand dieser Arbeit.Fridays for Future Weil der StadtWeil der Stadt liegt im Würmtal am Übergang zwischen Heckengäu und Schwarzwald. Mit ca. 19.200 Einwohner*innen, die sich auf die fünf Stadtteile Weil der Stadt, Merklingen, Schafhausen, Münklingen und Hausen verteilen, gehört Weil der Stadt zu den größeren Gemeinden im Landkreis Böblingen. Bekannt ist die ehemalige freie Reichsstadt vor allem als Geburtsort des berühmten Astronomen und Mathematikers Johannes Kepler. Trotz der Nähe zur baden-württembergischen Landeshauptstadt Stuttgart und der guten Anbindung ist Weil der Stadt eher ländlich geprägt (vgl. Stadt Weil der Stadt o.J.).Seit November 2019 bringt die FFF Ortsgruppe Weil der Stadt Klimaprotest auf die Straßen der Keplerstadt. Die Ortsgruppe ging aus einer Diskussionsgruppe an einer örtlichen Schule hervor. Dort fragte man sich, warum es so etwas wie Fridays for Future nicht auch in Weil der Stadt gebe. Dadurch angestoßen entwickelte sich ein Organisationsteam von elf Schüler*innen im Alter von zwölf bis 18 Jahren. Diese elf Schüler*innen organisieren seitdem regelmäßig Klimaproteste in Weil der Stadt (vgl. Leonberger Kreiszeitung 2020).Die FFF Ortsgruppe Weil der Stadt betreibt mehrere Social Media Kanäle, über die sie erreichbar ist, Informationen teilt und Beiträge zu Veranstaltungen und Aktionen postet. Sie sind auf WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, Twitter und YouTube vertreten (vgl. Fridays for Future WdS o.J.). Neben der altbekannten Form von Klimaprotesten, bei denen mit Megafon und Transparenten auf die Straße gegangen wird, hat sich die Ortsgruppe diverse andere Ideen einfallen lassen, um auf die Themen Klimaschutz und Klimagerechtigkeit in Weil der Stadt aufmerksam zu machen.Zur baden-württembergischen Landtagswahl 2021 organisierte FFF Weil der Stadt gemeinsam mit FFF Herrenberg eine digitale Podiumsdiskussion und stellte die Landtagskandidat*innen im Wahlkreis 6 von SPD, FDP, CDU, Grüne und Linke auf die Probe (vgl. Leonberger Kreiszeitung 2021). Im Juli 2021 übergaben die Weil der Städter Klimaaktivisti der Stadtverwaltung einen Forderungskatalog, welcher Weil der Stadt zu mehr Klimagerechtigkeit verhelfen solle.Auf 15 Seiten formulierten sie unter dem Motto 'Klimagerechtigkeit muss oberste Priorität werden!' 21 Forderungen zu den Themen Verkehr und Mobilität, Öffentliches Leben, Energie, Naturschutz, Bürger*innennähe und Kapital (vgl. Fridays for Future WdS 2021). Außerdem traten sie mit der örtlichen Kirchengemeinde in Kontakt und führten am 22. Oktober 2021 einen Live-Talk mit dem Klimaschutzmanager der Diözese Rottenburg-Stuttgart und Vertreter*innen der katholischen Kirchengemeinde St. Peter & Paul Weil der Stadt unter dem Motto 'Die Erde ist schön, es liebt sie der Herr – Glaube und der Klimawandel' durch (vgl. Kath. Kirchengemeinde St. Peter & Paul Weil der Stadt 2021).Interview mit Fridays for Future Weil der StadtDa sich die Literatur zum Thema auf die großen Veranstaltungen und Aktionen durch FFF beschränkt und Informationen zu kleineren FFF Ortsgruppen eher spärlich ausfallen, beruht das folgende Kapitel auf einem Fragebogen, beantwortet durch zwei Klimaaktivisti der FFF Ortsgruppe Weil der Stadt. Der Fragebogen wurde der FFF Ortsgruppe übergeben und von zwei der Aktivisti im Namen von FFF Weil der Stadt schriftlich beantwortet.Dabei geht es natürlich nicht um Repräsentativität. Es liegt auf der Hand, dass die Befragung einer einzelnen FFF Ortsgruppe keine Übersicht und auch kein Handbuch für Klimaprotest auf dem Land hervorbringt. Das ist aber auch nicht das Ziel dieser Arbeit. Denn im Folgenden geht es darum, die Leistung und das Wirken kleinerer Aktivist*innengruppen in ländlichen Regionen zu beleuchten und nicht immer nur von München und Berlin zu sprechen. Klimagerechtigkeit muss in allen Teilen der Welt geschehen und ländliche Gemeinden dürfen dabei nicht vergessen werden.Schaut man auf die Wahlergebnisse der Bundestagswahlen, so zeigt sich, dass die Unionsparteien auf dem Land besser abschneiden, in den Städten liegen SPD und Grüne vorn. In Westdeutschland zeigen sich für Bündnis 90/Die Grünen keine Stadt-Land-Unterschiede mehr (vgl. Pokorny 2020, S. 3). Auch wenn sie eher gering ausfallen, zeigen sich doch Einstellungsunterschiede zwischen Stadt und Land (vgl. ebd. S. 3). Tendenziell gibt es auf dem Land einen höheren Anteil an Pessimist*innen und mehr rechtspopulistische Einstellungen als in Städten. Großstädter*innen sind zufriedener mit der Demokratie als die Landbevölkerung, außerdem ist diese weniger politisch interessiert (vgl. ebd. S. 3).Diese Tendenzen lassen vermuten, dass es FFF Ortsgruppen in ländlichen Regionen schwerer haben, Mitstreiter*innen zu finden und auf positiven Anklang in der Bevölkerung zu stoßen. Der höhere Anteil an Pessimist*innen lässt vermuten, dass das Thema Klimawandel auf eine 'Was sollen wir daran schon ändern können'-Mentalität stößt. Die vermehrten rechtspopulistischen Einstellungen führen vermutlich dazu, dass der Klimawandel an sich bezweifelt wird. Die Unzufriedenheit mit der Demokratie und das geringere politische Interesse der Landbevölkerung unterstreicht diese Vermutungen.Da es sich um eine Umfrage unter Wähler*innen handelt, kann man natürlich nicht auf die Schüler*innen, welche einen Großteil der Demonstrant*innen ausmachen, schließen, aber auf deren Eltern. Die Vermutung liegt nahe, dass aus diesen Gründen Eltern auf dem Land eher ein Problem in Schuleschwänzen für Klimastreiks sehen, als es in Großstädten der Fall ist.Eine weitere Herausforderung lässt sich in den Strukturen und Möglichkeiten, die zur Organisation auf dem Land vorliegen, vermuten. Diese beschränken sich vor allem auf die Schulen der Gemeinde und eventuell auf ein paar wenige Vereine, während sich in Großstädten durch Hochschulen und Universitäten ganz andere Möglichkeiten eröffnen.Das Thema Klimaschutz ist somit wohl eher nicht im Fokus von Gemeinden in ländlichen Regionen. Vermutlich liegt aber genau hier eine der größten Chancen für FFF Ortsgruppen, nämlich das Thema Klimaschutz und Klimagerechtigkeit in ländlichen Regionen in die Köpfe und Gespräche der Bevölkerung zu bringen. Im Folgenden wird auf die neun Fragen des Interviews einzeln eingegangen, die Antworten von FFF Weil der Stadt vorgestellt und eingeordnet.Frage 1: Warum habt ihr in Weil der Stadt einen FFF-Ortsverband gegründet?"Weil wir auch in einer so kleinen Stadt wie Weil der Stadt eine FFF-Gruppe haben wollten, damit Klimagerechtigkeit an vielen Stellen Gehör bekommt. Zudem gab es viele motivierte Menschen und wir wollten auch Schüler*innen aus Weil der Stadt ermöglichen, an Demos teilzunehmen, ohne dafür die Schule schwänzen zu müssen" (FFF Weil der Stadt, Interview, 10.03.2023, siehe Anhang).Klimaprotest war zu der Zeit der Gründung der Ortsgruppe noch etwas, das man in Weil der Stadt nur aus den Nachrichten und den umliegenden Universitäts- und Großstädten kannte. Mit Sicherheit schlossen sich auch damals ein paar wenige Schüler*innen aus Weil der Stadt den Protesten in Stuttgart an, jedoch war dies für viele wohl ein zu großes Hindernis oder auf lange Sicht auch nicht zweckmäßig, wenn man dieses Thema auch auf die Straßen vor der eigenen Haustüre bringen konnte. Zu Anfang fanden die Klimastreiks in Stuttgart am früheren Vormittag statt, sodass die Teilnahme Schulschwänzen voraussetzte. Sobald sich also die Frage nach Klimaprotest in Weil der Stadt ergab und bei einigen Schüler*innen auf Anklang stieß, gab es wohl keine Gründe mehr, nicht wenigstens den Versuch zu wagen.Frage 2: Hättet ihr euch nicht auch einem bereits existierenden Ortsverband in einer größeren Stadtanschließen können?"Es gab zwar bereits eine Gruppe in Stuttgart, allerdings war der Besuch deren Demos für viele aus Weil der Stadt nur schwer machbar, da der Weg und die damit verbundenen Fehlzeiten im Unterricht von den Lehrkräften oft nicht gebilligt wurden. Auch wollten wir vor Ort für Klimagerechtigkeit auf die Straße gehen, um auch hier Druck auf die Politik auszuüben" (ebd. siehe Anhang).Obwohl es ein paar größere Städte im Umkreis von Weil der Stadt gibt (Leonberg, Böblingen), gab es noch keine Klimastreiks durch FFF Gruppen in der Nähe. Als nächstbeste Möglichkeit gab es also nur die FFF Gruppe in Stuttgart. Zwar ist Weil der Stadt dank der S-Bahn gut an die Landeshauptstadt angebunden, jedoch dauert eine einfache Fahrt bis zum Hauptbahnhof gut 40 Minuten. Gerade für Schüler*innen ist dies eine größere Hürde, vor allem in den jüngeren Klassenstufen. Selbst wenn die Klimastreiks in Stuttgart damals erst nach Schulschluss (meist ca. 13 Uhr) begonnen hätten, so wäre die Teilnahme für Schüler*innen aus Weil der Stadt trotzdem nur mit Fehlzeiten im Unterricht möglich gewesen. Da diese jedoch nicht von allen Lehrkräften – langfristig - gebilligt wurden, war das für viele wohl keine Option. Hinzu kommt, dass Klimagerechtigkeit dann noch immer nicht in Weil der Stadt zum Thema geworden wäre.Frage 3: Wie habt ihr zu Beginn Mitglieder generiert?"Wir bestanden maßgeblich aus Interessierten, die sich bei einer Schulveranstaltung gesammelt haben und den dazugehörigen Freundesgruppen. Teilweise kamen noch weitere Interessierte hinzu, die über Aufrufe auf Instagram oder bei Demos zu uns kamen" (ebd. siehe Anhang).Wie vermutet, beschränkt sich (zumindest zu Anfang) die Organisation auf die wenigen vorhandenen Strukturen, die auf dem Land gegeben sind. Nur die Institution Schule und die privaten Freundeskreise konnten hier anfangs genutzt werden. Alles weitere musste sich die Weil der Städter Ortsgruppe selbst aufbauen. Dazu war es nötig, im Kleinen anzufangen und sich über Social Media und regelmäßige Aktionen eine Bekanntheit in der Gemeinde aufzubauen.Frage 4: Wie tut ihr es jetzt? (Mitglieder generieren)"Gar nicht, da wir im Moment eher inaktiv sind" (ebd. siehe Anhang).Hier stellt sich die Frage warum eine eigentlich erfolgreiche FFF Ortsgruppe inaktiv wird.Frage 5: Wie beständig ist die Arbeit im Ortsverband in Weil der Stadt?"Im Moment leider eher weniger beständig, da ein Großteil der ursprünglichen Mitglieder nun studieren und aus diesem Grund weniger Zeit haben. Dennoch versuchen wir, immer wieder Demonstrationen zu veranstalten" (ebd. siehe Anhang).Hiermit wird auch die aufgeworfene Frage zur Inaktivität der Ortsgruppe beantwortet. Gleichzeitig zeigt sich ein weiteres Problem, mit dem ländliche FFF Ortsgruppen gezwungenermaßen konfrontiert werden. Wenn in einer Großstadt mit vorhandener Hochschule oder Universität die aktiven FFF Mitglieder ihren Abschluss machen und studieren gehen, so geschieht dies oftmals in derselben Stadt und der Klimaprotest kann vor Ort weitergeführt und zusätzlich die neuen Strukturen genutzt werden. Für viele auf dem Land ist ein Studium entweder mit einem hohen zeitlichen Aufwand durch Pendeln verbunden oder nur durch einen Umzug in die jeweilige Stadt realisierbar. Also ist es ganz logisch, dass es auf dem Land mit der Zeit schwieriger wird, Klimaprotest zu organisieren, zumindest wenn die Hauptorganisator*innen als treibende Kräfte für das Studium wegziehen und nur wenige neue Leute nachrücken.Frage 6: Wie sind die Reaktionen der Weil der Städter:innen? Viele kennen euch ja bestimmt auch privat und sehen euch nun als Aktivisti."Ich würde sagen, dass von den meisten Respekt kommt, dass man den Mut hat und das Ziel, etwas zu verändern. Es gibt natürlich auch Leute, die es eher als negativ empfinden, aber das ist in meinem Umfeld eher die Minderheit" (ebd. siehe Anhang).Wie erwartet stößt eine solche Bewegung bei einigen auf Unverständnis, im näheren privaten Umfeld der Aktivisti scheint dies jedoch kein größeres Problem zu sein. Das lässt sich aber vermutlich auf die Bubble, die man sich sucht und aufbaut, zurückführen, warum sollte man auch engere Beziehungen zu Menschen pflegen, die die eigenen Werte nicht vertreten. Ganz besonders wenn man, wie der Großteil der FFF Aktivisti, noch sehr jung ist, grenzt man sich doch eher von Andersdenkenden ab. Erfreulicherweise kommt aus dem näheren Umfeld und aus dem Teil der Bevölkerung, der sich die Proteste anschaut oder sich ihnen sogar anschließt, Unterstützung und Respekt für das, was die Ortsgruppe leistet.Frage 7: Wie schätzt ihr eure eigene Wirksamkeit ein? (Was habt ihr bereits erreicht? Was könnt ihrlangfristig erreichen?)"Sowohl auf persönlicher Ebene haben uns viele angesprochen, dass sie durch uns weiter auf das Thema gekommen sind und ein Umdenken in ihrem (Konsum)verhalten begonnen hat. Auf der städtischen Ebene hatten wir schon mehrere Gespräche mit der Stadt und den Fraktionen und haben mit diesen über unsere erarbeiteten Forderungen gesprochen, die wir in Kooperation mit Wissenschaftler*innen erstellt haben. Leider hat die Stadt Weil der Stadt sehr hohe Schulden, weswegen wir oft mit der Aussage, dass dafür kein Geld da sei, vertröstet wurden. Auch haben wir generell Aufmerksamkeit für das Thema Klimagerechtigkeit generiert. Dementsprechend haben wir jetzt nicht alleine durch Weil der Stadt die Welt gerettet, aber wir haben etwas bewirkt" (ebd. siehe Anhang).Die Aktionen führten also nicht nur dazu, dass die Themen Klimaschutz und Klimagerechtigkeit in den gesellschaftlichen Diskurs der Bürger*innen geraten, sondern bewirkten sogar ein aktives Umdenken hin zu einem klimagerechteren Verhalten in den Köpfen einiger Weil der Städter Bürger*innen. Auch direkt die Verwaltungsebene der Stadt, in der man wohnt, mit Klimagerechtigkeit zu konfrontieren, ist der FFF Ortsgruppe durch ihren Forderungskatalog, welchen sie der Stadt Weil der Stadt übergeben hat, gelungen. Beeindruckend ist auch, welche Mühe in den ausgearbeiteten Forderungen stecken muss. Allein dass sich Schüler*innen die Mühe machen, ein 15-seitiges Dokument zu erstellen und das in Kooperation mit Wissenschaftler*innen, ist bemerkenswert. Das zeigt, auch wenn es von Beginn an klar war, dass die meisten der Forderungen für die Stadt Weil der Stadt in der aktuellen Situation nahezu unmöglich zu erreichen sind, welche Leistung teilweise von FFF Ortsgruppen ausgeht und ausgehen kann. Es geht bei all dem wohl nicht darum, eine Lösung parat zu legen, die so auch direkt umgesetzt werden kann, sondern viel mehr darum, etwas zu bewirken, auch wenn es noch so klein ist.Frage 8: Was sind speziell in Weil der Stadt eure Ziele?"Die erarbeiteten Forderungen zielen auf verschiedene Bereiche ab. Sei dies unter anderem Tempobegrenzung, Begrünung, Ausweitung und Sicherung der Naturschutzgebiete, die Erstellung eines CO2-Budgets für Weil der Stadt oder die Einführung eines Klimarats. Generell möchten wir aber vor allem Gehör für das Thema schaffen und zeigen, dass der Druck auf die Politik nicht nur von den großen Städten kommt, sondern überall in Deutschland (und auch weltweit) für Klimagerechtigkeit kämpfen" (ebd. siehe Anhang).Auch den Aktivisti ist klar, dass ihre Forderungen keine Lösung für das große Ganze sind und sie ihre Gemeinde dadurch auch nicht zu einer klimagerechten Oase machen. Jedoch sind die Forderungen gut ausgearbeitet und zumindest in Teilen realisierbar und dazu auch vollkommen zeitgemäß. Zumindest scheint es, als hätte FFF Weil der Stadt dadurch schon die ersten anfänglichen Hürden überwunden und einen klimapolitischen Anstoß in der Gemeinde gesetzt. Auch wenn nicht alle oder auch keine der Forderungen umgesetzt werden, so haben sie ihr Hauptziel, Aufmerksamkeit zu generieren und den Druck auf die Politik zu erhöhen, auf kommunaler Ebene umsetzen können. Was insofern wichtig ist, weil Politik schließlich nicht nur auf Landes- oder Bundesebene stattfindet, sondern tagtäglich auf kommunaler Ebene.Frage 9: Wie kann man euch als Nicht-Mitglied unterstützen?"Mit anderen Menschen über Klimagerechtigkeit sprechen, auf Demonstrationen gehen, laut sein und so aktiv Demokratie mitgestalten, Wählen gehen, damit auch in den Parlamenten endlich Klimagerechtigkeit umgesetzt wird, sich informieren und für Aktionen werben, damit möglichst viele Menschen etwas davon mitbekommen" (ebd. siehe Anhang).Zum Schluss war es noch interessant zu erfahren, was sich die Aktivisti an Unterstützung aus der Bevölkerung wünschen. Auch diese Frage wurde sehr sachlich und geerdet beantwortet. Eigentlich wird nur erwartet, dass die Anstöße, welche sie durch ihre Aktionen geben, weiter durchdacht und im besten Fall verbreitet werden, ob im Privaten oder auch über den politisch-demokratischen Weg. Der größte Gewinn für die FFF Ortsgruppe scheint es zu sein, wenn angestoßen durch eine ihrer Aktionen das Thema Klimagerechtigkeit innerhalb der Bevölkerung weitergetragen wird, bis auch in den Parlamenten Klimagerechtigkeit umgesetzt wird.ErgebnisseDie zuvor angestellten Vermutungen haben sich nicht alle bewahrheitet oder zumindest nicht gänzlich. Mitstreiter*innen zu finden, fiel der FFF Ortsgruppe Weil der Stadt zu Anfang ziemlich leicht, beschränkte sich aber auf das schulische und private Umfeld der Aktivisti. Schwieriger war es, für Kontinuität zu sorgen und ein nachrückendes Organisationsteam zu bilden, welches den Klimaprotest im Ort heutzutage und in Zukunft sichert.Demokratieverdrossenheit oder pessimistische und etwas vermehrte rechtspopulistische Einstellungen auf dem Land haben zumindest auf die Arbeit der Weil der Städter Ortsgruppe keine Auswirkung gezeigt. Das Thema Schuleschwänzen stellte zwar nicht von Seiten der Eltern, jedoch von Seiten der Schulen ein Problem für die Klimaaktivisti dar. Dort wurde es nicht gern gesehen, dass für Klimaprotest Unterricht geschwänzt wird. Vor allem war dies dadurch ein Problem, weil es im näheren Umkreis keine Möglichkeit für die Schüler*innen gab, sich Klimaprotesten anzuschließen. Hierin sahen die Weil der Städter Klimaaktivisti ihre Chance und gründeten eine eigene Ortsgruppe und ermöglichten so den Weil der Städter Schüler*innen Klimaprotest ohne Schulschwänzen.Die vermutete Herausforderung durch geringe organisatorische Möglichkeiten hat sich zumindest insoweit bewahrheitet, als es in Weil der Stadt nicht zu Massenprotesten kam, wie es in Großstädten der Fall war. Dies ist nicht weiter verwunderlich. Für groß angelegte Proteste fehlen einfach die Strukturen wie Hochschulen und Universitäten. Gerade diese fehlenden Einrichtungen stellen ländlich gelegene FFF Ortsgruppen vor eine große Herausforderung. Schaffen diese es nicht, in den jüngeren Klassenstufen genügend Mitstreiter*innen zu akquirieren, die später einmal die Organisation übernehmen, so wird es spätestens nach dem Abschlussjahr und mit Beginn von Ausbildung oder Studium der Hauptorganisator*innen zu einer Lücke kommen. Gerade in ländlichen Regionen ist es nicht unüblich, für eine Ausbildung oder ein Studium wegzuziehen oder weite Strecken zu pendeln. Dadurch fehlt es an Leuten und an Zeit, um weitere Aktionen planen und umsetzen zu können.Auch bewahrheitet hat sich, dass die größte Chance für FFF Ortsverbände in ländlichen Regionen in der Aufmerksamkeitsgenerierung für das Thema Klimaschutz und Klimagerechtigkeit liegt. Am Beispiel FFF Weil der Stadt hat sich gezeigt, dass dies sogar noch weiter geht. Sie haben Rückmeldungen von Bürger*innen bekommen, dass diese aufgrund der Aktionen der Ortsgruppe angefangen haben, ihr Verhalten und ihren Konsum in Richtung Klimaschutz und Klimagerechtigkeit zu ändern. FFF Weil der Stadt hat also bewirken können, dass sich Menschen vor Ort mit dem Thema auseinandersetzen.Auch hat FFF Weil der Stadt durch einen Forderungskatalog erreichen können, dass das Thema in der Stadtverwaltung und dem Gemeinderat eine höhere Präsenz aufweist. Weil der Stadt hat hohe Schulden, was die Umsetzung der Forderungen verkompliziert. Selbst ohne dieses Problem wäre noch lange nicht sicher, dass die Forderungen von Seiten der Stadt umgesetzt werden, aber zumindest kann in Weil der Stadt niemand mehr sagen, dass die Schüler*innen nur auf die Straße gehen, Schule schwänzen, jedoch keine Lösungen für ihre Forderung, das 1,5 Grad Zeil einzuhalten, bereitstellen, denn genau das hat die Ortsgruppe gemacht.Die Ortsgruppe hat außerdem die damals anstehenden demokratischen Wahlen genutzt, um ihr Anliegen in den Vordergrund zu rücken, indem sie beispielsweise eine Podiumsdiskussion mit den Landtagskandidat*innen aus dem Wahlkreis durchgeführt haben. Dies eröffnete ihnen die Chance, weit über die Grenzen von Weil der Stadt hinaus Menschen zu erreichen und Klimaschutz im Wahlkreis 6 eine bedeutendere Rolle zuzuweisen. Eine weitere Chance, die FFF Weil der Stadt ergriffen hat, war es, in einer traditionell katholisch geprägten Stadt wie Weil der Stadt die Kirchengemeinde mit einzubeziehen und dadurch eine ganz neue Gruppe Bürger*innen auf das Thema Klimagerechtigkeit aufmerksam zu machen.Natürlich ist klar, dass nicht jede FFF Ortsgruppe die Herausforderungen, vor die sie gestellt wird, überwinden kann. Man kann auch nicht erwarten, dass jede Ortsgruppe so viel Energie und Arbeit aufwendet, um Klimagerechtigkeit Gehör zu verschaffen. Am Beispiel der FFF Ortsgruppe Weil der Stadt kann man jedoch sehen, welche Chancen man auch in ländlichen Regionen und kleineren Gemeinden ergreifen kann. Es bieten sich jede Menge Möglichkeiten für Aktionen gemeinsam mit Vereinen, Kirchen und Glaubensgemeinschaften, im Zuge einer anstehenden Wahl oder indem man direkt auf die Stadtverwaltung und ihre Gremien zugeht.Die Ortsgruppe hat außerdem gezeigt, dass sich auch aus Herausforderungen Chancen ergeben können, beispielsweise indem man es anderen Schüler*innen ermöglicht, an Klimaprotesten teilzunehmen, ohne dass sie dafür Schule schwänzen müssen und Sanktionen zu erwarten haben. Auf alle Fälle haben sie bewiesen, dass man auch im Kleinen viel erreichen und große Aufmerksamkeit für Klimaschutz und Klimagerechtigkeit generieren kann.Diese Arbeit zeigt beispielhaft und schlaglichtartig, dass zusätzlich zu den großen Klimastreiks die ganzen kleineren Ortsgruppen eine wichtige Rolle im Kampf für eine klimagerechte Welt einnehmen. Sie bringen dieses brisante Thema auch in abgelegenere Gegenden, in die Nähe der Bürger*innen und auf die kommunale Ebene.Man kann nur hoffen, dass sich die Ortsgruppe auch ihrer aktuell größten Herausforderung stellen und diese überwinden kann und dass sie die Arbeit, so wie sie die letzten Jahre geleistet wurde, wieder aufnehmen kann. Dabei wünsche ich Fridays for Future Weil der Stadt und allen anderen Fridays for Future Ortsgruppen, die vor einer Herausforderung stehen, viel Erfolg! Ihr seid es, die etwas bewirken können. Lasst euch nicht unterkriegen und gebt nicht auf, denn ihr habt schon viel erreicht und könnt das noch immer. LiteraturDeutschlandfunk (2019): Fridays for Future. Schule schwänzen fürs Klima – wie lange noch? [online] https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/fridays-for-future-schule-schwaenzen-fuers-klima-wie-lange-100.html [07.03.2023].Fopp, Daniel (2021): Gemeinsam für die Zukunft – Fridays For Future und Scientists For Future. Vom Stockholmer Schulstreik zur weltweiten Klimabewegung, Bielefeld: transcript Verlag.Fridays for Future (o.J.) a: Mitmachen [Online] https://fridaysforfuture.de/mitmachen/ [04.03.2023].Fridays for Future (o.J.) b: Globaler Klimastreik – 3. März 2023 [online] https://fridaysforfuture.de/globaler-klimastreik/ [07.03.2023].Fridays for Future (2019) a: Internationaler Streik am 15.3. [online] https://fridaysforfuture.de/internationaler-streik-am-15-3/ [08.03.2023].Fridays for Future (2019) b: Der grösste Klimastreik der Geschichte – und das war erst der Anfang! [online] https://fridaysforfuture.de/ruckblick-allefuersklima1/ [09.03.2023].Fridays for Future WdS (o.J.): Weil der Stadt [online] https://fridaysforfuture.de/ortsgruppen/weil-der-stadt/ [14.03.2023].Fridays for Future WdS (2021): Forderungen. Fridays for Future Weil der Stadt [online] https://cloud.fridaysforfuture.is/s/Hcpks7NAL7ixfiB [14.03.2023].Kath. Kirchengemeinde St. Peter & Paul Weil der Stadt (2021): WDSTV.de Die Erde ist schön es liebt sie der Herr – Glaube und der Klimawandel. [online] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IkPkzuL2OU [14.03.2023].Leonberger Kreiszeitung (2020): Fridays for Future-Demo in Weil der Stadt. Auch kleinere Städte können Druck machen [online] https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.fri-days-for-future-demo-in-weil-der-stadt-auch-kleinere-staedte-koennen-druck-machen.484cfe11-2a15-4b15-bd6a-4fc2d0d284f9.html [14.03.2023].Leonberger Kreiszeitung (2021): Kreis Böblingen. Fridays for future fühlt Landtagskandidaten auf den Zahn [online] https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.kreis-boeblingen-fridays-for-future-fuehlt-landtagskandidaten-auf-den-zahn.6c515e59-bb4f-406e-8ee6-c8f29dd15b2e.html [14.03.2023].Merkur.de (2019): "Fridays for Future": Luisa Neubauer (22) ist die deutsche Greta Thunberg [online] https://www.merkur.de/politik/fridays-for-future-luisa-neubauer-22-ist-deutsche-greta-thunberg-zr-11839805.html [08.03.2023].Pokorny, Sabine (2020): Ticken Städter anders?. Politische Einstellungen in urbanen und ländlichen Regionen, Berlin: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.Sommer, Moritz/ Rucht, Dieter/ Haunss, Sebastian/ Zajak, Sabrina (2019): Fridays for Future. Profil, Entstehung und Perspektiven der Protestbewegung in Deutschland. Ipb working paper 2/2019. Berlin: Institut für Protest- und Bewegungsforschung.Stadt Weil der Stadt (o.J.): Keplerstadt. Stadtportrait [online] https://www.weil-der-stadt.de/de/Keplerstadt/Stadtportrait [12.03.2023].Statista (2022): Kennzahlen zum 1. Globalen Klima-Streik am 15. März 2019 [online] https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1064670/umfrage/kennzahlen-zum-1-globalen-klima-streik/ [08.03.2023].Tagesschau (2023): Zehntausende demonstrieren für Verkehrswende [Online] https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/gesellschaft/fridays-for-future-klimastreik-107.html [04.03.2023].----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------AnhangFragen an die Fridays for Future Ortsgruppe Weil der Stadt1. Warum habt ihr in Weil der Stadt einen FFF-Ortsverband gegründet?Weil wir auch in einer so kleinen Stadt wie Weil der Stadt eine FFF-Gruppe haben wollten, damit Klimagerechtigkeit an vielen Stellen Gehör bekommt. Zudem gab es viele motivierte Menschen und wir wollten auch Schüler*innen aus Weil der Stadt ermöglichen an Demos teilzunehmen ohne dafür die Schule schwänzen zu müssen.2. Hättet ihr euch nicht auch einem bereits existierenden Ortsverband in einer größeren Stadt anschließen können?Es gab zwar bereits eine Gruppe in Stuttgart, allerdings war der Besuch deren Demos für viele aus Weil der Stadt nur schwer machbar, da der Weg und die damit verbundenen Fehlzeiten im Unterricht von den Lehrkräften oft nicht gebilligt wurden. Auch wollten wir Vorort für Klimagerechtigkeit auf die Straße gehen, um auch hier Druck auf die Politik auszuüben.3. Wie habt ihr zu Beginn Mitglieder generiert?Wir bestanden maßgeblich aus Interessierten, die sich bei einer Schulveranstaltung gesammelt haben und den dazugehörigen Freundesgruppen. Teilweise kamen noch weitere interessierte hinzu, die über Aufrufe auf Instagram oder bei Demos zu uns kamen.4. Wie tut ihr es jetzt?Gar nicht, da wir im Moment eher inaktiv sind.5. Wie beständig ist die Arbeit im Ortsverband in Weil der Stadt?Im Moment leider eher weniger beständig, da ein Großteil der ursprünglichen Mitglieder nun studieren und aus diesem Grund weniger Zeit haben. Dennoch versuchen wir, immer wiederDemonstrationen zu veranstalten.6. Wie sind die Reaktionen der Weil der Städter? Viele kennen euch ja bestimmt auch privat und sehen euch nun als Aktivisti.Ich würde sagen, dass von den meisten Respekt kommt, dass man den Mut hat und das Ziel etwas zu verändern. Es gibt natürlich auch Leute, die es eher als negativ empfinden, aber das ist in meinen Umfeld eher die Minderheit.7. Wie schätzt ihr eure eigene Wirksamkeit ein? (Was habt ihr bereits erreicht? Was könnt ihr langfristig erreichen?)Sowohl auf persönlicher Ebene haben uns viele angesprochen, dass sie durch uns weiter auf das Thema gekommen sind und ein Umdenken in Ihrem (Konsum)verhalten begonnen hat. Auf der städtischen Ebene hatten wir schon mehrere Gespräche mit der Stadt und den Fraktionen und haben diesen unsere erarbeiteten Forderungen gesprochen, die wir in Kooperation mit Wissenschaftler*innen erstellt haben. Leider hat die Stadt Weil der Stadt sehr hohe Schulden, weswegen wir oft mit der Aussage, dass dafür kein Geld da sei, vertröstet wurden. Auch haben wir generell Aufmerksamkeit für das Thema Klimagerechtigkeit generiert. Dementsprechend haben wir jetzt nicht alleine durch Weil der Stadt die Welt gerettet, aber wir haben etwas bewirkt.8. Was sind speziell in Weil der Stadt eure Ziele?Die erarbeiteten Forderungen zielen auf verschiedene Bereiche ab. Sei dies unter anderem Tempobegrenzung, Begrünung, Ausweitung und Sicherung der Naturschutzgebiete, die Erstellung eines CO2-Budgets für Weil der Stadt oder die Einführung eines Klimarats. Generell möchten wir aber vor allem Gehör für das Thema schaffen und zeigen, dass der Druck auf die Politik nicht nur von den großen Städten kommt, sondern überall in Deutschland (und auch weltweit) für Klimagerechtigkeit kämpfen.9. Wie kann man euch als Nicht-Mitglied unterstützen?Mit anderen Menschen über Klimagerechtigkeit sprechen, auf Demonstrationen gehen, laut sein und so aktiv Demokratie mitgestalten, Wählen gehen, damit auch in den Parlamenten endlich Klimagerechtigkeit umgesetzt wird, sich informieren und für Aktionen werben, damit möglichst viele Menschen etwas davon mitbekommen.

En mi formación de posgrado a finales de los años ochenta, teníamos cerca de treinta camas hospitalarias en un pabellón llamado "sépticas" (1). En Colombia, donde el aborto estaba totalmente penalizado, allí estaban mayoritariamente mujeres con abortos inseguros complicados. El enfoque que recibíamos era técnico: manejo de cuidados intensivos; realizar histerectomías, colostomías, resecciones intestinales, etc. En esa época algunas enfermeras eran monjas, y se limitaban a interrogar a las pacientes para que "confesaran" qué se habían hecho para abortar. Siempre me inquietó que las mujeres que salían vivas se iban sin ninguna asesoría, ni con un método anticonceptivo. Al preguntar alguna vez a uno de mis docentes me contestó con desdén: "este es un hospital de tercer nivel, esas cosas las hacen las enfermeras en primer nivel". Al ver tanto dolor y muerte, decidí hablar con las pacientes del servicio y empecé a entender sus decisiones. Recuerdo aún con tristeza tantas muertes, pero un caso en particular aún me duele: era una mujer cercana a los cincuenta años que llegó con una perforación uterina en estado de sepsis avanzada. A pesar de la cirugía y los cuidados intensivos, falleció. Alcancé a hablar con ella y me contó que era viuda, tenía dos hijos mayores y había abortado por "vergüenza con ellos", pues se iban a dar cuenta de que tenía vida sexual activa. A los pocos días de su fallecimiento, me llamó el profesor de patología, extrañado, para decirme que el útero que habíamos enviado para examen patológico no tenía embarazo. Era una mujer en estado perimenopáusico con una prueba de embarazo falsamente positiva, debido a los altos niveles de FSH/LH típicos de su edad. ¡¡¡NO ESTABA EMBARAZADA!!! No tenía menstruación porque estaba en premenopausia y una prueba falsamente positiva la llevó a un aborto inseguro. Claro, las lesiones causadas en las maniobras abortivas la llevaron al desenlace fatal, pero la real causa subyacente fue el tabú social respecto a la sexualidad. Tuve que ver muchas adolescentes y mujeres jóvenes salir del hospital vivas, pero sin útero, a veces sin ovarios y con colostomías, para ser despreciadas por una sociedad que les recriminaba el haber decidido no ser madres. Tuve que ver situaciones de mujeres que llegaban con sus intestinos protruyendo a través de sus vaginas por abortos inseguros. Vi mujeres que en su desespero se autoinfligieron lesiones tratando de abortar con elementos como palos, ramas, gajos de cebolla, barras de alumbre, ganchos, entre otros. Eran tantas las muertes que era difícil no tener por lo menos una mujer diariamente en la morgue a consecuencia de un aborto inseguro. En esa época no se abordaba la salud desde lo biopsicosocial sino solamente desde lo técnico (2); sin embargo, en las evaluaciones académicas que nos hacían, ante la pregunta de definición de salud, había que recitar el texto de la Organización Mundial de la Salud que involucraba estos tres aspectos, ¡qué contrasentido! Para dar respuesta a las necesidades de salud de las mujeres y garantizar sus derechos, cuando ya era docente, inicié el servicio de anticoncepción posevento obstétrico en ese hospital de tercer nivel. Hubo resistencia de las directivas, pero afortunadamente logré donaciones internacionales para la institución y esto facilitó su aceptación. Decidí concursar para carrera docente con el ánimo de poder sensibilizar a profesionales de la salud hacia un enfoque integral de la salud y la enfermedad. Cuando en 1994 se realizó la Conferencia Internacional de Población y Desarrollo (CIPD) en El Cairo ya llevaba varios años en la docencia, y cuando leí su Programa de Acción, encontré nombre para lo que estaba trabajando: derechos sexuales y derechos reproductivos. Empecé a incorporar en mi vida profesional y docente las herramientas que este documento me daba. Pude sensibilizar personas del Ministerio de Salud de mi país y trabajamos en conjunto recorriéndolo con un abordaje de derechos humanos en materia de salud sexual y reproductiva (SSR). Esta nueva mirada buscaba además de ser integral, dar respuesta a viejos problemas como la mortalidad materna, el embarazo en la adolescencia, la baja prevalencia anticonceptiva, el embarazo no planeado o no deseado o la violencia contra la mujer. Con otras personas sensibilizadas empezamos a permear con estos temas de SSR la Sociedad Colombiana de Obstetricia y Ginecología, algunas universidades y hospitales universitarios. Todavía seguimos dando la lucha en un país que a pesar de tantas dificultades ha mejorado muchos indicadores de SSR. Con la experiencia de haber trajinado en todas las esferas con estos temas, logramos con un puñado de colegas y amigas de la Universidad El Bosque crear la Maestría en Salud Sexual y Reproductiva, abierta a todas las profesiones, en la que rompimos varios paradigmas. Se inició un programa en el que la investigación cualitativa y cuantitativa tenían el mismo peso y algunos de los egresados del programa están ahora en posiciones de liderazgo en los entes gubernamentales e internacionales replicando modelos integrales. En la Federación Latinoamericana de Obstetricia y Ginecología (FLASOG) y en la Federación Internacional de Obstetricia y Ginecología (FIGO), pude por varios años aportar mi experiencia en los comités de SSR de esas asociaciones para beneficio de las mujeres y las niñas en los ámbitos regional y global. Cuando pienso en quienes me han inspirado en esta lucha, debo resaltar las grandes feministas que me han enseñado y acompañado en tantas batallas. No puedo mencionarlas a todas, pero he admirado la historia de vida de Margaret Sanger con su persistencia y mirada visionaria. Ella luchó durante toda su vida para ayudar a las mujeres del siglo XX para que obtuvieran el derecho a decidir si querían o no tener hijos o hijas y cuándo (3). De las feministas actuales he tenido el privilegio de compartir experiencias con Carmen Barroso, Giselle Carino, Debora Diniz y Alejandra Meglioli, lideresas de la Federación Internacional de Planificación de la Familia, Región del Hemisferio Occidental (IPPF-RHO, por su nombre en inglés). De mi país quiero resaltar a mi compatriota Florence Thomas, psicóloga, columnista, escritora y activista feminista colombo-francesa. Es una de las voces más influyentes e importantes del movimiento por los derechos de la mujer en Colombia y en la región. Arribó procedente de Francia en la década de 1960, en los años de la contracultura, los Beatles, los hippies, Simone de Beauvoir y Jean-Paul Sartre, época en la que se empezó a criticar el capitalismo y la cultura del consumo (4). Fue entonces cuando se comenzó a hablar del cuerpo femenino, la sexualidad femenina y cuando llegó la píldora anticonceptiva como una revolución total para las mujeres. A su llegada en 1967, ella experimentó un choque porque acababa de asistir a toda una revolución y solo encontró un país de madres, no de mujeres (5). Ese era el único destino de una mujer, ser callada y sumisa. Entonces se dio cuenta de que no se podía seguir así, hablando de "vanguardias revolucionarias" en un ambiente tan patriarcal. En 1986 con las olas del feminismo norteamericano y europeo, y con su equipo académico crearon el grupo Mujer y Sociedad de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia, semillero de grandes iniciativas y logros para el país (6). Ella ha liderado grandes cambios con su valentía, la fuerza de sus argumentos, y un discurso apasionado y agradable a la vez. Dentro de sus múltiples libros resalto Conversaciones con Violeta (7), motivado por el desdén hacia el feminismo de algunas mujeres jóvenes. Lo escribe a manera de diálogo con una hija imaginaria en el que, de una manera íntima, reconstruye la historia de las mujeres a través de los siglos y da nuevas luces sobre el papel fundamental del feminismo en la vida de la mujer moderna. Otro libro muestra de su valentía es Había que decirlo (8), en el que narra la experiencia de su propio aborto a sus 22 años en la Francia de los años sesenta. Mi experiencia de trabajo en la IPPF-RHO me ha permitido conocer líderes y lideresas de todas las edades en diversos países de la región, quienes con gran mística y dedicación, de manera voluntaria, trabajan por lograr una sociedad más equitativa y justa. Particularmente me ha impresionado la apropiación del concepto de derechos sexuales y reproductivos por parte de las personas más jóvenes, y esto me ha dado gran esperanza en el futuro del planeta. Seguimos con una agenda incompleta del Plan de acción de la CIPD de El Cairo, pero ver cómo la juventud enfrenta con valentía los retos, me motiva a seguir adelante y aportar mis años de experiencia en un trabajo intergeneracional. La IPPF-RHO evidencia un gran compromiso por los derechos y la SSR de adolescentes en sus políticas y programas, que son consistentes con lo que la Organización promueve; por ejemplo, el 20% de los puestos de toma de decisión están en manos de jóvenes. Las organizaciones miembros, que basan su labor en el voluntariado, son verdaderas incubadoras de jóvenes que harán ese recambio generacional inexpugnable y necesario. A diferencia de lo que nos tocó a muchos de nosotros, trabajar en esta complicada agenda de salud sexual y reproductiva sin bases teóricas, hoy vemos personas comprometidas y con una sólida formación para reemplazarnos. En la Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia y en la Facultad de Enfermería de la Universidad El Bosque, las nuevas generaciones están más motivadas y empoderadas, con grandes deseos de cambiar las rígidas estructuras subyacentes. Nuestra gran preocupación son los embates de ultraderecha que soportan grupos antiderechos, muchas veces mejor organizados que nosotros, que sí apoyamos los derechos y somos verdaderos provida (9). Ante este escenario, debemos organizarnos mejor y seguir dando batallas para garantizar los derechos de las mujeres en el ámbito local, regional y global, aunando esfuerzos de todas las organizaciones proderechos. Estamos ahora comprometidos con los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (10), entendidos como aquellos que satisfacen las necesidades de la generación presente sin comprometer la capacidad de las generaciones futuras para satisfacer sus propias necesidades. Esta nueva agenda se basa en: - El trabajo no finalizado de los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio - Los compromisos pendientes (convenciones ambientales internacionales) - Los temas emergentes en las tres dimensiones del desarrollo sostenible: social, económica y ambiental. Tenemos ahora 17 Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible y 169 metas (11). Entre estos objetivos se menciona en varias ocasiones el "acceso universal a la salud reproductiva". En el Objetivo 3 de esa lista se incluye garantizar, de aquí al año 2030, "el acceso universal a los servicios de salud sexual y reproductiva, incluidos los de planificación familiar, información y educación". De igual manera, el Objetivo 5, "Lograr la igualdad de género y empoderar a todas las mujeres y las niñas", establece que se deberá "asegurar el acceso universal a la salud sexual y reproductiva y los derechos reproductivos según lo acordado de conformidad con el Programa de Acción de la Conferencia Internacional sobre la Población y el Desarrollo, la Plataforma de Acción de Beijing". No se puede olvidar que el término acceso universal a la salud sexual y reproductiva incluye el acceso universal al aborto y la anticoncepción. Actualmente 830 mujeres mueren cada día por causas maternas prevenibles; de estos decesos, el 99% ocurre en países en desarrollo, más de la mitad en entornos frágiles y en contextos humanitarios (12). 216 millones de mujeres no pueden acceder a métodos de anticoncepción moderna y la mayoría vive en los nueve países más pobres del mundo y en un ambiente cultural propio de la década de los sesenta (13). Este número solo incluye las mujeres de 15 a 49 años en cualquier tipo de unión, es decir el número total es mucho mayor. Cumplir con los objetivos marcados supondría prevenir 67 millones de embarazos no deseados y reducir a un tercio las muertes maternas. Actualmente tenemos una alta demanda insatisfecha de anticoncepción moderna, con un bajísimo uso de los métodos de larga duración reversible (dispositivos intrauterinos e implantes subdérmicos) que son los más efectivos y de mayor adherencia (14). No hay uno solo de los 17 Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible donde la anticoncepción no tenga un papel preponderante: desde el primero que se refiere al fin de la pobreza, pasando por el quinto de igualdad de género, el décimo de reducción de la desigualdad, entre los países y en el mismo país, hasta el decimosexto relacionado con paz y justicia. Si queremos cambiar el mundo, debemos procurar acceso universal a la anticoncepción sin mitos ni barreras. Tenemos la obligación moral de lograr la erradicación de la pobreza extrema y avanzar en la construcción de sociedades más igualitarias, justas y felices. En anticoncepción de urgencia (AU), estamos muy lejos de alcanzar lo que esperamos. Si en métodos de larga duración reversible tenemos una baja prevalencia, en la AU la situación empeora. No en todas las facultades de medicina de la región se aborda este tema, y donde sí se hace, no hay homogeneidad de contenidos, ni siquiera dentro del mismo país. Hay aún mitos sobre su verdadero mecanismo de acción. Hay países como Honduras donde está prohibida y no hay un medicamento dedicado, como tampoco lo hay en Haití. Donde está disponible el acceso es ínfimo, particularmente entre las niñas, adolescentes, jóvenes, migrantes, afrodescendientes e indígenas. Hay que derrumbar las múltiples barreras para el uso eficaz de la anticoncepción de emergencia, y para eso necesitamos trabajar en romper mitos y percepciones erróneas, tabúes y normas culturales; lograr cambios en las leyes y normas restrictivas de los países; lograr acceso sin barreras a la AU; trabajar intersectorialmente; capacitar al personal de salud y la comunidad. Es necesario transformar la actitud del personal de salud en una de servicio por encima de sus propias opiniones. Reflexionando acerca de lo que ha pasado después de la CIPD realizada en El Cairo, su Programa de Acción cambió cómo miramos las dinámicas de población de un énfasis en la demografía a un enfoque en los derechos humanos y las personas. Los gobiernos acordaron que, en este nuevo enfoque, el éxito era el empoderamiento de las mujeres y la posibilidad de elegir a través de expandir el acceso a la educación, la salud, los servicios y el empleo, entre otros. Sin embargo, ha habido avances desiguales y persiste la inequidad en nuestra región, no se cumplieron todas las metas, los derechos sexuales y reproductivos continúan fuera del alcance de muchas mujeres (15). Aún queda un largo camino para recorrer, hasta que mujeres y niñas del mundo puedan reclamar sus derechos y la libertad de decidir. Globalmente la mortalidad materna se ha reducido, hay mayor asistencia calificada del parto, mayor prevalencia anticonceptiva, la educación integral en sexualidad y el acceso a servicios de SSR para adolescentes ya son derechos reconocidos y con grandes avances, además ha habido ganancias concretas en materia de marcos legales más favorables en particular en nuestra región; sin embargo, si bien las condiciones de acceso han mejorado, las legislaciones restrictivas de la región exponen a las mujeres más vulnerables a abortos inseguros. Hay aún grandes desafíos para que los gobiernos reconozcan la SSR y los DSR como parte integral de los sistemas de salud, existe una amplia agenda contra las mujeres. En ese sentido, el acceso a SSR está bajo amenaza y opresión, se requiere movilización intersectorial y litigios estratégicos, investigación y apoyo a los derechos de las mujeres como agenda intersectorial. Hacia adelante hay que esforzarnos más en el trabajo con jóvenes, para avanzar no solo en el Programa de Acción de la CIPD, sino en todos los movimientos sociales. Son uno de los grupos más vulnerables, y de los mayores catalizadores para el cambio. La población joven aún enfrentan muchos desafíos, especialmente las mujeres y niñas; las jóvenes están especialmente en alto riesgo debido a la falta de servicios y salud sexual y reproductiva amigables y confidenciales, la presencia de violencia basada en género y la falta de acceso a los servicios. Además hay que mejorar el acceso al aborto; es responsabilidad de los estados garantizar la calidad y seguridad en el acceso. Aún en nuestra región existen países con marcos totalmente restrictivos. Las nuevas tecnologías facilitan el autocuidado (16), lo que permitirá ampliar el acceso universal, pero los gobiernos no pueden desvincularse de su responsabilidad. El autocuidado se está expandiendo en el mundo y puede ser estratégico para llegar a las poblaciones más vulnerables. Hay nuevos desafíos para los mismos problemas, que requieren una reinterpretación de las medidas necesarias para garantizar los DSR de todas las personas, en particular mujeres, niñas y en general las poblaciones marginadas y vulnerables. Es necesario tener en cuenta aspectos como las migraciones, el cambio climático, el impacto de medios digitales, el resurgimiento de discursos de odio, la opresión, la violencia, la xenofobia, la homo/transfobia y otros problemas emergentes, pues la SSR debe verse en un marco de justicia, y no aislado. Debemos exigir rendición de cuentas a los 179 gobiernos que participaron en la CIPD hace 25 años y a los 193 países que firmaron los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible. Deben reafirmarse en sus compromisos y expandir la agenda a los temas no considerados en ese momento. Nuestra región ha dado ejemplo al mundo con el Consenso de Montevideo, que se convierte en una hoja de ruta para el cumplimiento del plan de acción de la CIPD y no debe permitirnos retroceder. Este Consenso pone en el centro a las personas, en especial a las mujeres, e incluye el tema de aborto invitando a los estados a que consideren la posibilidad de legalizarlo, lo que abre la puerta para que los gobiernos de todo el mundo reconozcan que las mujeres tienen el derecho a decidir sobre la maternidad. Este Consenso es mucho más inclusivo: Considerando que las brechas en salud continúan sobresalientes en la región y las estadísticas promedio suelen ocultar los altos niveles de mortalidad materna, de infecciones de transmisión sexual, de infección por VIH/SIDA y de demanda insatisfecha de anticoncepción entre la población que vive en la pobreza y en áreas rurales, entre los pueblos indígenas y las personas afrodescendientes y grupos en condición de vulnerabilidad como mujeres, adolescentes y jóvenes y personas con discapacidad, acuerdan: 33-Promover, proteger y garantizar la salud y los derechos sexuales y los derechos reproductivos para contribuir a la plena realización de las personas y a la justicia social en una sociedad libre de toda forma de discriminación y violencia. 37-Garantizar el acceso universal a servicios de salud sexual y salud reproductiva de calidad, tomando en consideración las necesidades específicas de hombres y mujeres, adolescentes y jóvenes, personas LGBT, personas mayores y personas con discapacidad, prestando particular atención a personas en condición de vulnerabilidad y personas que viven en zonas rurales y remotas y promoviendo la participación ciudadana en el seguimiento de los compromisos. 42-Asegurar, en los casos en que el aborto es legal o está despenalizado en la legislación nacional, la existencia de servicios de aborto seguros y de calidad para las mujeres que cursan embarazos no deseados y no aceptados e instar a los demás Estados a considerar la posibilidad de modificar las leyes, normativas, estrategias y políticas públicas sobre la interrupción voluntaria del embarazo para salvaguardar la vida y la salud de mujeres adolescentes, mejorando su calidad de vida y disminuyendo el número de abortos (17). ; In my postgraduate formation during the last years of the 80's, we had close to thirty hospital beds in a pavilion called "sépticas" (1). In Colombia, where abortion was completely penalized, the pavilion was mostly filled with women with insecure, complicated abortions. The focus we received was technical: management of intensive care; performance of hysterectomies, colostomies, bowel resection, etc. In those times, some nurses were nuns and limited themselves to interrogating the patients to get them to "confess" what they had done to themselves in order to abort. It always disturbed me that the women who left alive, left without any advice or contraceptive method. Having asked a professor of mine, he responded with disdain: "This is a third level hospital, those things are done by nurses of the first level". Seeing so much pain and death, I decided to talk to patients, and I began to understand their decision. I still remember so many deaths with sadness, but one case in particular pains me: it was a woman close to being fifty who arrived with a uterine perforation in a state of advanced sepsis. Despite the surgery and the intensive care, she passed away. I had talked to her, and she told me she was a widow, had two adult kids and had aborted because of "embarrassment towards them" because they were going to find out that she had an active sexual life. A few days after her passing, the pathology professor called me, surprised, to tell me that the uterus we had sent for pathological examination showed no pregnancy. She was a woman in a perimenopausal state with a pregnancy exam that gave a false positive due to the high levels of FSH/LH typical of her age. SHE WAS NOT PREGNANT!!! She didn't have menstruation because she was premenopausal and a false positive led her to an unsafe abortion. Of course, the injuries caused in the attempted abortion caused the fatal conclusion, but the real underlying cause was the social taboo in respect to sexuality. I had to watch many adolescents and young women leave the hospital alive, but without a uterus, sometime without ovaries and with colostomies, to be looked down on by a society that blamed them for deciding to not be mothers. I had to see situation of women that arrived with their intestines protruding from their vaginas because of unsafe abortions. I saw women, who in their despair, self-inflicted injuries attempting to abort with elements such as stick, branches, onion wedges, alum bars and clothing hooks among others. Among so many deaths, it was hard not having at least one woman per day in the morgue due to an unsafe abortion. During those time, healthcare was not handled from the biopsychosocial, but only from the technical (2); nonetheless, in the academic evaluations that were performed, when asked about the definition of health, we had to recite the text from the International Organization of Health that included these three aspects. How contradictory! To give response to the health need of women and guarantee their right when I was already a professor, I began an obstetric contraceptive service in that third level hospital. There was resistance from the directors, but fortunately I was able to acquire international donations for the institution, which facilitated its acceptance. I decided to undertake a teaching career with the hope of being able to sensitize health professionals towards an integral focus of health and illness. When the International Conference of Population and Development (ICPD) was held in Cairo in 1994, I had already spent various years in teaching, and when I read their Action Program, I found a name for what I was working on: Sexual and Reproductive Rights. I began to incorporate the tools given by this document into my professional and teaching life. I was able to sensitize people at my countries Health Ministry, and we worked together moving it to an approach of human rights in areas of sexual and reproductive health (SRH). This new viewpoint, in addition to being integral, sought to give answers to old problems like maternal mortality, adolescent pregnancy, low contraceptive prevalence, unplanned or unwanted pregnancy or violence against women. With other sensitized people, we began with these SRH issues to permeate the Colombian Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology, some universities, and university hospitals. We are still fighting in a country that despite many difficulties has improved its indicators of SRH. With the experience of having labored in all sphere of these topics, we manage to create, with a handful of colleagues and friend at the Universidad El Bosque, a Master's Program in Sexual and Reproductive Health, open to all professions, in which we broke several paradigms. A program was initiated in which the qualitative and quantitative investigation had the same weight, and some alumni of the program are now in positions of leadership in governmental and international institutions, replicating integral models. In the Latin American Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology (FLASOG, English acronym) and in the International Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology (FIGO), I was able to apply my experience for many years in the SRH committees of these association to benefit women and girls in the regional and global environments. When I think of who has inspired me in these fights, I should highlight the great feminist who have taught me and been with me in so many fights. I cannot mention them all, but I have admired the story of the life of Margaret Sanger with her persistence and visionary outlook. She fought throughout her whole life to help the women of the 20th century to be able to obtain the right to decide when and whether or not they wanted to have children (3). Of current feminist, I have had the privilege of sharing experiences with Carmen Barroso, Giselle Carino, Debora Diniz and Alejandra Meglioli, leaders of the International Planned Parenthood Federation – Western Hemisphere Region (IPPF-RHO). From my country, I want to mention my countrywoman Florence Thomas, psychologist, columnist, writer and Colombo-French feminist. She is one of the most influential and important voices in the movement for women rights in Colombia and the region. She arrived from France in the 1960's, in the years of counterculture, the Beatles, hippies, Simone de Beauvoir, and Jean-Paul Sartre, a time in which capitalism and consumer culture began to be criticized (4). It was then when they began to talk about the female body, female sexuality and when the contraceptive pill arrived like a total revolution for women. Upon its arrival in 1967, she experimented a shock because she had just assisted in a revolution and only found a country of mothers, not women (5). That was the only destiny for a woman, to be quiet and submissive. Then she realized that this could not continue, speaking of "revolutionary vanguards" in such a patriarchal environment. In 1986 with the North American and European feminism waves and with her academic team, they created the group "Mujer y Sociedad de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia", incubator of great initiatives and achievements for the country (6). She has led great changes with her courage, the strength of her arguments, and a simultaneously passionate and agreeable discourse. Among her multiple books, I highlight "Conversaciones con Violeta" (7), motivated by the disdain towards feminism of some young women. She writes it as a dialogue with an imaginary daughter in which, in an intimate manner, she reconstructs the history of women throughout the centuries and gives new light of the fundamental role of feminism in the life of modern women. Another book that shows her bravery is "Había que decirlo" (8), in which she narrates the experience of her own abortion at age twenty-two in sixty's France. My work experience in the IPPF-RHO has allowed me to meet leaders of all ages in diverse countries of the region, who with great mysticism and dedication, voluntarily, work to achieve a more equal and just society. I have been particularly impressed by the appropriation of the concept of sexual and reproductive rights by young people, and this has given me great hope for the future of the planet. We continue to have an incomplete agenda of the action plan of the ICPD of Cairo but seeing how the youth bravely confront the challenges motivates me to continue ahead and give my years of experience in an intergenerational work. In their policies and programs, the IPPF-RHO evidences great commitment for the rights and the SRH of adolescent, that are consistent with what the organization promotes, for example, 20% of the places for decision making are in hands of the young. Member organizations, that base their labor on volunteers, are true incubators of youth that will make that unassailable and necessary change of generations. In contrast to what many of us experienced, working in this complicated agenda of sexual and reproductive health without theoretical bases, today we see committed people with a solid formation to replace us. In the college of medicine at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia and the College of Nursing at the Universidad El Bosque, the new generations are more motivated and empowered, with great desire to change the strict underlying structures. Our great worry is the onslaught of the ultra-right, a lot of times better organized than us who do support rights, that supports anti-rights group and are truly pro-life (9). Faced with this scenario, we should organize ourselves better, giving battle to guarantee the rights of women in the local, regional, and global level, aggregating the efforts of all pro-right organizations. We are now committed to the Objectives of Sustainable Development (10), understood as those that satisfy the necessities of the current generation without jeopardizing the capacity of future generations to satisfy their own necessities. This new agenda is based on: - The unfinished work of the Millennium Development Goals - Pending commitments (international environmental conventions) - The emergent topics of the three dimensions of sustainable development: social, economic, and environmental. We now have 17 objectives of sustainable development and 169 goals (11). These goals mention "universal access to reproductive health" many times. In objective 3 of this list is included guaranteeing, before the year 2030, "universal access to sexual and reproductive health services, including those of family planning, information, and education." Likewise, objective 5, "obtain gender equality and empower all women and girls", establishes the goal of "assuring the universal access to sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights in conformity with the action program of the International Conference on Population and Development, the Action Platform of Beijing". It cannot be forgotten that the term universal access to sexual and reproductive health includes universal access to abortion and contraception. Currently, 830 women die every day through preventable maternal causes; of these deaths, 99% occur in developing countries, more than half in fragile environments and in humanitarian contexts (12). 216 million women cannot access modern contraception methods and the majority live in the nine poorest countries in the world and in a cultural environment proper to the decades of the seventies (13). This number only includes women from 15 to 49 years in any marital state, that is to say, the number that takes all women into account is much greater. Achieving the proposed objectives would entail preventing 67 million unwanted pregnancies and reducing maternal deaths by two thirds. We currently have a high, unsatisfied demand for modern contraceptives, with extremely low use of reversible, long term methods (intrauterine devices and subdermal implants) which are the most effect ones with best adherence (14). There is not a single objective among the 17 Objectives of Sustainable Development where contraception does not have a prominent role: from the first one that refers to ending poverty, going through the fifth one about gender equality, the tenth of inequality reduction among countries and within the same country, until the sixteenth related with peace and justice. If we want to change the world, we should procure universal access to contraception without myths or barriers. We have the moral obligation of achieving the irradiation of extreme poverty and advancing the construction of more equal, just, and happy societies. In emergency contraception (EC), we are very far from reaching expectations. If in reversible, long-term methods we have low prevalence, in EC the situation gets worse. Not all faculties in the region look at this topic, and where it is looked at, there is no homogeneity in content, not even within the same country. There are still myths about their real action mechanisms. There are countries, like Honduras, where it is prohibited and there is no specific medicine, the same case as in Haiti. Where it is available, access is dismal, particularly among girls, adolescents, youth, migrants, afro-descendent, and indigenous. The multiple barriers for the effective use of emergency contraceptives must be knocked down, and to work toward that we have to destroy myths and erroneous perceptions, taboos and cultural norms; achieve changes in laws and restrictive rules within countries, achieve access without barriers to the EC; work in union with other sectors; train health personnel and the community. It is necessary to transform the attitude of health personal to a service above personal opinion. Reflecting on what has occurred after the ICPD in Cairo, their Action Program changed how we look at the dynamics of population from an emphasis on demographics to a focus on the people and human rights. The governments agreed that, in this new focus, success was the empowerment of women and the possibility of choice through expanded access to education, health, services, and employment among others. Nonetheless, there have been unequal advances and inequality persists in our region, all the goals were not met, the sexual and reproductive goals continue beyond the reach of many women (15). There is a long road ahead until women and girls of the world can claim their rights and liberty of deciding. Globally, maternal deaths have been reduced, there is more qualified assistance of births, more contraception prevalence, integral sexuality education, and access to SRH services for adolescents are now recognized rights with great advances, and additionally there have been concrete gains in terms of more favorable legal frameworks, particularly in our region; nonetheless, although it's true that the access condition have improved, the restrictive laws of the region expose the most vulnerable women to insecure abortions. There are great challenges for governments to recognize SRH and the DSR as integral parts of health systems, there is an ample agenda against women. In that sense, access to SRH is threatened and oppressed, it requires multi-sector mobilization and litigation strategies, investigation and support for the support of women's rights as a multi-sector agenda. Looking forward, we must make an effort to work more with youth to advance not only the Action Program of the ICPD, but also all social movements. They are one of the most vulnerable groups, and the biggest catalyzers for change. The young population still faces many challenges, especially women and girls; young girls are in particularly high risk due to lack of friendly and confidential services related with sexual and reproductive health, gender violence, and lack of access to services. In addition, access to abortion must be improved; it is the responsibility of states to guarantee the quality and security of this access. In our region there still exist countries with completely restrictive frameworks. New technologies facilitate self-care (16), which will allow expansion of universal access, but governments cannot detach themselves from their responsibility. Self-care is expanding in the world and can be strategic for reaching the most vulnerable populations. There are new challenges for the same problems, that require a re-interpretation of the measures necessary to guaranty the DSR of all people, in particular women, girls, and in general, marginalized and vulnerable populations. It is necessary to take into account migrations, climate change, the impact of digital media, the resurgence of hate discourse, oppression, violence, xenophobia, homo/transphobia, and other emergent problems, as SRH should be seen within a framework of justice, not isolated. We should demand accountability of the 179 governments that participate in the ICPD 25 years ago and the 193 countries that signed the Sustainable Development Objectives. They should reaffirm their commitments and expand their agenda to topics not considered at that time. Our region has given the world an example with the Agreement of Montevideo, that becomes a blueprint for achieving the action plan of the CIPD and we should not allow retreat. This agreement puts people at the center, especially women, and includes the topic of abortion, inviting the state to consider the possibility of legalizing it, which opens the doors for all governments of the world to recognize that women have the right to choose on maternity. This agreement is much more inclusive: Considering that the gaps in health continue to abound in the region and the average statistics hide the high levels of maternal mortality, of sexually transmitted diseases, of infection by HIV/AIDS, and the unsatisfied demand for contraception in the population that lives in poverty and rural areas, among indigenous communities, and afro-descendants and groups in conditions of vulnerability like women, adolescents and incapacitated people, it is agreed: 33- To promote, protect, and guarantee the health and the sexual and reproductive rights that contribute to the complete fulfillment of people and social justice in a society free of any form of discrimination and violence. 37- Guarantee universal access to quality sexual and reproductive health services, taking into consideration the specific needs of men and women, adolescents and young, LGBT people, older people and people with incapacity, paying particular attention to people in a condition of vulnerability and people who live in rural and remote zone, promoting citizen participation in the completing of these commitments. 42- To guarantee, in cases in which abortion is legal or decriminalized in the national legislation, the existence of safe and quality abortion for non-desired or non-accepted pregnancies and instigate the other States to consider the possibility of modifying public laws, norms, strategies, and public policy on the voluntary interruption of pregnancy to save the life and health of pregnant adolescent women, improving their quality of life and decreasing the number of abortions (17).