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How do policymakers infer the long-term political intentions of their states' adversaries? A new approach to answering this question, the "selective attention thesis," posits that individual perceptual biases and organizational interests and practices influence which types of indicators a state's political leaders and its intelligence community regard as credible signals of an adversary's intentions. Policymakers often base their interpretations on their own theories, expectations, and needs, sometimes ignoring costly signals and paying more attention to information that, though less costly, is more vivid (i.e., personalized and emotionally involving). In contrast, intelligence organizations typically prioritize the collection and analysis of data on the adversary's military inventory. Over time, these organizations develop substantial knowledge on these material indicators that they then use to make predictions about an adversary's intentions. An examination of three cases based on 30,000 archival documents and intelligence reports shows strong support for the selective attention thesis and mixed support for two other approaches in international relations theory aimed at understanding how observers are likely to infer adversaries' political intentions: the behavior thesis and the capabilities thesis. The three cases are assessments by President Jimmy Carter and officials in his administration of Soviet intentions during the collapse of détente; assessments by President Ronald Reagan and administration officials of Soviet intentions during the end of the Cold War; and British assessments of Nazi Germany before World War II.

Parental gatekeeping refers to parents' attitudes and actions that serve to affect the quality of the other parent's relationship and involvement with the child. It captures a common statutory best interest factor that often becomes the center of child custody disputes, especially in relocation cases. Gatekeeping research is reviewed for its relevance to family court and child custody evaluation. Divorce conflict and litigation is expected to be associated with negative, restrictive gatekeeping. A conceptual framework for gatekeeping is presented for child custody evaluation. Scholars have proposed a gatekeeping continuum varying from very restrictive to very facilitative in coparenting attitudes and actions. Research allows for a general prediction of potential harm to the child when there is substantial restrictive gatekeeping. The concept of social capital is proposed as an efficient explanation of the "gatekeeping effect" on children of divorce. Evaluators are cautioned not to confuse restrictive gatekeeping attitudes and behaviors. Restrictive/negative attitudes are normative among custody litigants. Children's adjustment will be affected more by the level and quality of parental involvement than by parental gatekeeping attitudes. Evaluators are encouraged to identify specific gate‐closing and gate‐opening behaviors in a gatekeeping assessment. Implications for crafting parenting plans are discussed.
Keypoints
Gatekeeping varies along continuum from facilitative to restrictive gatekeeping.
Maternal gatekeeping attitudes influence father's involvement and affects child adjustment.
Restrictive gatekeeping fosters parental conflict.
It is important to distinguish between restrictive gatekeeping attitudes and behaviors.

PurposeThe main aim of this study is to explore the motivational process behind two types of forgiveness – i.e. true and hollow forgiveness. It is predicted that victims who engage in true forgiving behavior will have stronger relationship‐oriented motives than either those who engage in hollow forgiving behavior or those who do not engage in forgiving behavior. Furthermore, the authors seek to explore the relationship between true and hollow forgiveness and conflict resolution strategy.Design/methodology/approachIn Study 1, participants were asked to recall personal experiences of being harmed, and they rated the events in terms of forgiveness, motives of forgiveness, resolutions strategies, and satisfaction with outcome. In Study 2, participants were presented with scenarios depicting individuals who were victimized, and were asked to read the scenarios, imagining themselves as the victim. Following this forgiveness, motives of forgiveness, resolution strategies, and satisfaction with outcome were measured.FindingsConsistent with the predictions, participants classified as being true forgivers were motivated by relationship‐oriented motives. These individuals preferred a collaborative conflict resolution strategy, and tended to be satisfied with the outcome of the conflict. In contrast, participants classified as being hollow forgivers were motivated by self‐oriented reasons, and they preferred avoidance as a conflict resolution strategy. In addition, these individuals were less satisfied with the outcome of the conflict than were the true forgivers.Originality/valueThese findings suggest that perceptions of the conflict resolution process depend on the type of forgiveness.

AbstractWe explore the impact of issue framing on individual attitudes toward international trade. Based on a survey experiment fielded in Argentina during 2007, which reproduces the setup of earlier studies in the United States, we show that individuals' position in the economy and their material concerns define the strength of their prior beliefs about international trade, and thereby mitigate their sensitivity to the new dimensions introduced in informational cues. Extending the analysis beyond the United States to a country with different skill endowments allows us to better explore the role of material and nonmaterial attributes on individual attitudes toward trade. We find that skill is a central predictor of support for openness. The effect is strongest for individuals in the service sector and in cities that cater to the producers of agricultural commodities. Our findings suggest that the pattern of support for economic integration reflects the predictions from recent literature in international economics that emphasizes trade's impact on the relative demand for skilled labor regardless of factor endowments. Our findings also amend recent empirical contributions that suggest socialization is the main factor explaining individual sensitivity to issue framing on trade preferences. We suggest that material conditions associated with income and price effects are crucial, both in shaping trade preferences and in affecting the malleability of attitudes to issue framing. Hence, our results provide a crucial contribution to our general understanding of the attributes shaping susceptibility to political framing in policy debates.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine associations between work‐family conflicts, threat appraisals, self‐efficacy, and emotional exhaustion. Threat appraisal was hypothesized to mediate relations between work‐family conflicts (work‐to‐family and family‐to‐work) and emotional exhaustion. Self‐efficacy was hypothesized to moderate relations between work‐family conflicts and threat appraisal, with relations expected to be weaker for individuals high in self‐efficacy.Design/methodology/approachUniversity employees (n=159; 67 percent female) participated in this non‐experimental study. Data were gathered via questionnaire. Two‐thirds of participants completed measures of work‐family conflicts and threat‐appraisal a few weeks prior to completing measures of self‐efficacy and emotional exhaustion; remaining participants completed one cross‐sectional survey.FindingsObserved relations were consistent with predicted mediation hypotheses. Contrary to predictions, self‐efficacy did not moderate relations between work‐to‐family conflict and threat‐appraisal and the relation between family‐to‐work conflict and threat‐appraisal was stronger for those with higher self‐efficacy. Self‐efficacy was negatively related to emotional exhaustion.Practical implicationsOrganizations should foster positive work‐family climates to help alleviate work‐family conflicts. Managers should demonstrate compassion when dealing with employees who have serious family concerns, as even efficacious individuals may find such situations threatening.Originality/valueThis research integrates stress theories with research on the work‐family interface. The relevance of threat appraisal and the role of self‐efficacy are highlighted.

Globalization has generated increased societal heterogeneity and awakened interest of a new kind in social cohesion and integration. But globalization is not the only contemporary process to give rise to societal hybridization. Two other such processes–much less attended to in the theoretical debate but no less problematic as regards social integration–are societal ageing and robotization. Drawing on statistical estimates, this paper begins by assessing the relevance of these new processes of hybridization. The predictions in question indicate that in the near future, everyday interaction, not just with cultural strangers and 'intelligent' machines, but also with people suffering from dementia, will be an omnipresent phenomenon, confronting our societies with types and degrees of alterity never before encountered. Whereas contact with cultural strangers is to some extent familiar (though not yet taken as standard), interaction with intelligent technological devices and dementia sufferers represent new forms of alterity for which most societies have not yet established routines of conduct. This paper gives a detailed account of a number of empirical studies showing how new forms of hybrid interaction and cooperation evolve out of repeated contact with each of the three alterities. With this groundwork in place, the paper then attempts to identify not only the ways in which routines may develop out of interaction with the three alterities but also the trends towards, and prerequisites for, the emergence of a new culture of cooperation and interaction.

This paper presents a novel Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Avionics Based Integrity Augmentation (ABIA) system architecture suitable for civil and military air platforms, including Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). Taking the move from previous research on high-accuracy Differential GNSS (DGNSS) systems design, integration and experimental flight test activities conducted at the Italian Air Force Flight Test Centre (CSV-RSV), our research focused on the development of a novel approach to the problem of GNSS ABIA for mission- and safety-critical air vehicle applications and for multi-sensor avionics architectures based on GNSS. Detailed mathematical models were developed to describe the main causes of GNSS signal outages and degradation in flight, namely: antenna obscuration, multipath, fading due to adverse geometry and Doppler shift. Adopting these models in association with suitable integrity thresholds and guidance algorithms, the ABIA system is able to generate integrity cautions (predictive flags) and warnings (reactive flags), as well as providing steering information to the pilot and electronic commands to the aircraft/UAS flight control systems. These features allow real-time avoidance of safety-critical flight conditions and fast recovery of the required navigation performance in case of GNSS data losses. In other words, this novel ABIA system addresses all three cornerstones of GNSS integrity augmentation in mission- and safety-critical applications: prediction (caution flags), reaction (warning flags) and correction (alternate flight path computation).

This article examines recent trends and patterns in binational marriages between European citizens in Spain over a 20-year period and the sociodemographic profile and nationality composition of these binational marriages. The analysis relies on aggregate marriage statistics and onmarriage registermicrodata for 2008–2009. We use odds ratios to monitor trends and characteristics of binational marriages and multinomial regression to further examine the sociodemographic profile of these couples. The analysis of marriage records reveals only a modest rise in Euromarriages over the 1990–2009 period. This moderate increase in Euromarriages points towards a weak social impact of the European single market. Moreover, the analysis also suggests that binational marriages more often involve lessereducated than more-educated individuals. Finally, findings on the social and nationality compositions of binational marriages conform to theoretical predictions drawn from the literatures of marriage markets, endogamy, and social hypergamy. They show that the affinity between Spaniards and European Union (EU-15) citizens is lesser than that between Spaniards and non-Europeans (i.e. Latin Americans). They also show that patterns of binational marriages are highly gender specific. Whereas the affinity between Spanish women and EU-15 men is higher than the affinity between Spanish women and 'new' European men, the affinity between Spanish men and 'new' European women is higher than the affinity between Spanish men and EU-15 women. ; Peer reviewed

22 pages ; Why does public conflict over societal risks persist in the face of compelling and widely accessible scientific evidence? We conducted an experiment to probe two alternative answers: the "Science Comprehension Thesis" (SCT), which identifies defects in the public's knowledge and reasoning capacities as the source of such controversies; and the "Identity-protective Cognition Thesis" (ICT) which treats cultural conflict as disabling the faculties that members of the public use to make sense of decision-relevant science. In our experiment, we presented subjects with a difficult problem that turned on their ability to draw valid causal inferences from empirical data. As expected, subjects highest in Numeracy — a measure of the ability and disposition to make use of quantitative information — did substantially better than less numerate ones when the data were presented as results from a study of a new skin-rash treatment. Also as expected, subjects' responses became politically polarized — and even less accurate — when the same data were presented as results from the study of a gun-control ban. But contrary to the prediction of SCT, such polarization did not abate among subjects highest in Numeracy; instead, it increased. This outcome supported ICT, which predicted that more Numerate subjects would use their quantitative-reasoning capacity selectively to conform their interpretation of the data to the result most consistent with their political outlooks. We discuss the theoretical and practical significance of these findings.

The term structure of interest rates, particularly the term spreaddetermined from the difference between ten-year government bond yields andthree-month Treasury bill yields, has received increased attention as avaluable forecasting tool for the purposes of monetary policy and recessionforecasting. This is on the back of the observed positive relationship betweenterm spread and economic activity. Moreover, the term spread has been observedto invert prior to the occurrence of economic recessions both in developed anddeveloping countries.This study investigated the forecasting ability of the South African(S.A.) term spread in predicting S.A. recessions, taking into account therecent global economic recession. The motivation is due to the forecastingconsistencies illustrated by the term spread in providing statisticallyincorrect signals of recession in 2003, which did not transit into reality. Itimplied a weak relationship between the S.A. term spread and economic activity.Moreover, based on observations from the literature that term spreads andeconomic activities across countries are correlated, the term spreads of China,United States (U.S.) and Germany were investigated and compared to the S.A.term spread to determine which better forecasts S.A. recessions. The studyemployed the Dynamic Probit Model since it is considered to provide a betterpredictive edge over the Traditional Static Probit model.The findings revealed that the S.A. term spread accurately predicted allthe S.A recessions since 1980; Chinese term spread accurately predicted the1996 and 2008 S.A recessions; U.S. term spread predicted some recessions; whileGerman term spread predictions were counter-cyclical.

Recent room temperature experiments on TiH2 [Kalita, J. Appl. Phys. 108, 043511 (2010)], an important compound in hydrogen storage research, revealed a cubic (fcc, Fm-3m) to tetragonal (bct, I4/mmm) phase transition at around 0.6 GPa, which was suggested to remain stable up to at least 90 GPa. However, the simulated X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern of the I4/mmm structure cannot explain all the diffraction peaks observed at 90 GPa. In this article, we apply the recently developed particle swarm optimization algorithm for crystal structure prediction to propose that at 63 GPa TiH2 presents a further phase transition from I4/mmm to P4/nmm, which we have also confirmed is dynamically and enthalpically stable up to 294 GPa. Moreover, the XRD patterns and calculated lattice parameters of the P4/nmm structure are in good agreement with the experimental available data. Above 294 GPa, we predict a monoclinic P21/m structure to be stable. © 2013 American Institute of Physics. ; We acknowledge funding supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (under Grant Nos. 91022029 and 11025418), the research fund of Key Laboratory of Surface Physics and Chemistry (No. SPC201103), and the China 973 Program under Grant No. 2011CB808200. A.B. acknowledges the Department of Education, Universities and Research of the Basque Government, UPV/EHU (Grant No. IT-366-07) and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Grant No. FIS2010-19609-C02-00). ; Peer Reviewed

В статье рассмотрены работы, выполняемые Татарским геологоразведочным управлением по Государственным контрактам с Министерством природных ресурсов России. Основными из них являются бурение 4-х опорно-параметрических скважин; геолого-геофизические работы по прогнозу техногенных землетрясений на Ромашкинском и Казанском геодинамических полигонах; оценка ресурсного потенциала пресных подземных вод Волго-Сурского и Камско-Вятского артезианских бассейнов; тематические исследования в рамках контракта «Региональные геофизические работы на территории Северо-Татарского свода, Мелекесской впадины, ЮжноТатарского свода, с переинтерпретацией региональных сейсмических профилей в зонах сочленения крупных тектонических элементов» и др. Всего с 2002 по 2012 гг. ТГРУ участвовало (качестве исполнителя или соисполнителя) в выполнении 13 федеральных программ. ; This article deals with works carried out in Tatar Geological Exploration Department under the Government contracts with the Ministry of Natural Resources of Russia. The main ones are drilling of four support-parametric wells; geological and geophysical works on prediction of technogenic earthquakes on the Romashkino and Kazan geodynamic ground; resource potential assessment of fresh groundwater of Volga-Sura and Kama-Vyatka artesian basins; case studies under the Contract «Regional geophysical works on the territory of the NorthTatar Arch, Melekessky depression, South-Tatar Arch, with a reinterpretation of regional seismic profiles in the areas of jointing of major tectonic elements» etc. In total from 2002 to 2012 Tatar Geological Exploration Department has participated (as a contractor or co-contractor) in the execution of 13 federal programs.

The effectiveness of the mapping and assessment of Quality of Life (QoL) in the identification of problemareas and in monitoring development policies makes it a suitable method in poverty studies. In an attemptto enhance QoL as a strategy for poverty alleviation decision-making, this research has adopted theanalytical tool of Geographical Information System (GIS). Twelve indicators were used to assess the QoLof Egor Local Government Area (LGA), Edo State, Nigeria. These indicators were grouped into threedifferent domains of life (social, economic and physical). Spatial autocorrelation check was performed onthe indicators to determine the spatial prediction method that was used to map each indicator. Of all theseindicators, only two were spatially auto-correlated. The two indicators were mapped using the InverseDistance Weighting (IDW). The other indicators were mapped using the voronoi polygons. The twelvemodels were used to model and assess QoL with the utilization of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. Theweights used for the combination of the various mapped indicators were given by the respondents. TheQoL model was cross-validated using leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation method. The result showedthat the QoL of 61.53% of the geographic space of Egor LGA was below average, 17.94% was extremelypoor, and 14.55% was average, while the classes above average and excellent were not on the QoLmodel. In addition, the research identified priority development areas and concluded that the QoL of thepeople of Egor LGA was poor and required urgent conscious intervention by all development partnersincluding the government.

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, a crucial question is whether popular protest is now likely to be a permanent part of Middle Eastern politics or if the protests that have taken place over the past two years are more likely to be a "one‐shot deal." We consider this question from a theoretical perspective, focusing on the relationship between the consequences of protests in one period and the incentives to protest in the future. The model provides numerous predictions for why we might observe a phenomenon that we call the "one‐shot deal": when protest occurs at one time but not in the future despite an intervening period of bad governance. The analysis focuses on the learning process of citizens. We suggest that citizens may not only be discovering the type or quality of their new government—as most previous models of adverse selection assume—but rather citizens may also be learning about the universe of potential governments in their country. In this way, bad performance by one government induces some pessimism about possible replacements. This modeling approach expands the formal literature on adverse selection in elections in two ways: it takes seriously the fact that removing governments can be costly, and it explores the relevance of allowing the citizen/principal to face uncertainty about the underlying distribution from which possible government/agent types are drawn.

According to quite a number of scholars, even non-Austrian, some theories of Austrian school of economic thought do provide an increasingly relevant material to explain recent boom-and-bust economic cycles as well as financial crises. However, I argue, this development is not adequately reflected by a corresponding growth of Austrian influence within the economic orthodoxy. Quite to the contrary, many orthodox scholars have taken over rigidly Keynesian positions since the financial crisis culminated in 2008 and 2009. In my article I maintain that Austrians themselves have contributed significantly to such a situation by not preventing three major tactical mistakes, related to the domain of sociology of economics, from occurring. Firstly, they have not formed a really unified and thus influential group of scholars; instead, they have been divided into a few streams, sometimes with highly contradictory stances. Secondly, many Austrians have made bold predictions, especially with regard to possible enormous inflation stemming from the unprecedented provision of liquidity to the financial system during and in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, which have not been fulfilled at all. Thirdly, a critical number of Austrian school's economists do not effectively communicate with the rest of the profession and even, it seems, fail to adequately comprehend the orthodox analytical tools and theories. Adapted from the source document.