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Inhaltsangabe: Introduction: This book covers policy proposals and interim contracts, assesses the positions of various Iraqi political actors and examines the potential significance for international foreign policy goals in Iraq. Despite a lack of progress in reaching agreements on the hydro-carbon sector and revenue sharing legislation to set new conditions for the management of the country's significant oil and gas resources, development in Iraq's oil and gas sector is moving forward. The passage of the oil and gas sector framework and revenue sharing legislation will be seen as significant milestones by International governments and International Oil Companies (IOC´s). This would provide evidence of the Iraqi government's dedication to promoting political reconciliation and providing a solid foundation for long term economic development in Iraq. Interim revenue sharing mechanisms have been introduced due to the lack of new legislation. Additionally, both the Federal Government (the Federal Oil Ministry-MoO) and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) (the Regional Ministry of Natural Resources and Energy) have made oil and gas development deals with foreign firms. The MoO is working with existing regulation from the previous political and administrational regime, while the Regional Ministry of Resource and Energy Kurdistan-Iraq has designed its own laws and regulations, which the Federal Government has not yet recognized. There is wide recognition among Iraqis of the importance of oil and gas revenue for the Iraqi economy. Most groups see the need for new legal and policy guidelines for the development of the country's oil and natural gas resources. However, Iraq's Council of Rrepresentatives (parliament) has not yet considered the proposed legislation due to ongoing political discord and general political instability. There are strong differences on key issues between Iraqi critics and supporters of various proposed solutions. These include the appropriate role and powers of federal and regional authorities in regulating oil and gas development; the conditions and degree of potential foreign participation in the oil and gas sectors; and proposed formulas and mechanisms for equitably sharing oil and gas revenue. Simultaneously, there are strong disagreements on related discussions about the administrative status of the city of Kirkuk and proposed amendments to articles of Iraq's constitution that outline federal and regional oil and gas rights. The U.S. and UK military strategy in Iraq seeks to lay the ground work for an environment in which Iraqis can resolve core political differences in order to ensure national stability and security. However, it is not yet certain whether the proposed oil and gas legislation and ongoing interim efforts to develop Iraq's energy resources will support harmony or create deeper political tension. The United States and its allies face difficult decisions regarding how to work with Iraqis on assorted policy proposals, related constitutional reforms and oil and gas development contracts, and at the same time encouraging their Iraqi counterparts to ensure that the content of proposed laws, amendments and contracts reflect acceptable political compromises. In the 1920s a wide-ranging concession was granted to a consortium of oil companies known as the Turkish Petroleum company and later as the Iraq Petroleum Company. This was the beginning of oil exploration in Iraq. The nationalization of Iraq's oil resources and production was finished by 1975. From 1975 to 2003, oil production and export operations were entirely state operated. However, from the early 1980s until the toppling of Saddam Hussein's government in 2003, the negative effects of war, international sanctions, a shortage of investments and technology and, in many cases, mismanagement caused difficulties for Iraq's hydrocarbon infrastructure. According to the Oil Ministry, Iraq has the third largest proven oil reserves in the world (115 billion barrels). Other estimates of Iraq's potential oil reserves vary. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration notes that current estimates "have not been revised since 2001 and are largely based on 2-D seismic data from nearly three decades ago." In April 2007, oil industry consultants IHS assessed that Iraq's proven and probable reserves tally 116 billion barrels, with a potential additional 100 billion barrels in largely unexplored western areas. The U.S. Geological Survey's median estimate for additional oil reserves in Iraq is around 45 billion barrels. In 2004, Iraq's then Oil Ministry claimed that Iraq had "unconfirmed or potential reserves" of 214 billion barrels. My Reservoir Engineering Estimation is that Iraq's reserves can reach more than 320 bn bbl oil. Approximately 65 percent of Iraq's current proven reserves are located in southern Iraq, with a concentration in the southern most province of Al Basrah. Large proven oil resources have also been found in the northern province of Al Ta´mim near the disputed city of Kirkuk At present, crude oil provides over 90% of Iraq's domestic energy consumption and oil exports produce over 98% of Iraq's government revenue. Due to decreases in global oil prices from their 2008 high and lower oil production, Iraqi leaders revised their 2009 revenue and budget assumptions from a projected surplus to a projected $15.9 billion deficit. According to official U.S. assessments continued fluctuations in oil prices and production could put at risk Iraq's fiscal stability and the sustainability of its reconstruction and development plans. The expansion of oil production to the level of four million barrels per day (m/d) by 2013 and then upward to six m/d by 2017 is called for by current Iraqi plans. Iraqi officials have begun an international bid process for service contracts and renegotiated a series of Saddam era oil production agreements in order to support these goals. These include the transformation of a production sharing agreement into a service contract for Ahdab oil field with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of contents: 1.Introduction1 2.Iraqi Constitution7 3.Contract Conditions15 4.State-owned Oil Companies27 5.Restructuring of the Iraqi Oil Institutions33 6.Revenue-Sharing and Equalization36 7.Potential Geography50 8.Present Organization and Development56 9.Hydrocarbon Legislation Draft and Contracts59 10.Revenue Sharing65 11.Crisis Management of the Oil Industry in Iraq88 12.U.S. Policy and Issues for Congress99 13.China Investment in the Energy Sector112 14.Conclusion119 15.References127 16.Attachments129Textprobe:Textsample: Revenues and Arrangements: Under current arrangements, the responsibility for the sale and export of Iraq's crude oil is appointed to Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO). The United Nations Security Council resolution (UNSCR) 1483 (and updated under subsequent Security Council resolutions) stipulates that revenue from Iraq's oil exports is to be deposited into an Iraq-controlled account held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). Five percent of the funds are put aside for a United Nations Compensation Fund for reparations to the victims of the 1990 Iraqi invasion and occupation of Kuwait. The remaining 95% are deposited into a Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) account at the FRBNY and then transferred to an Iraqi Ministry of Finance account at the Central Bank of Iraq for further distribution to Iraqi government ministries. The terms of UNSCR1546 and subsequent resolutions mandate that the DFI be monitored by an International Advisory and Monitoring Board (IAMB), which provides periodic reports on Iraq's oil export revenue, Iraq's use of its oil revenues, and its oil production practices. According to the IAMB, as of December 31, 2007, $23.43 billion had been disbursed from the United Nations Compensation Fund and Iraq owed $28.95 billion to the Fund. Iraq deposited another $3 billion. According to IAMB estimates in mid 2008 "at the present rate of Iraqi oil sales, it would take approximately 17 years for the compensation award to be fully paid."38 It is likely that this estimate is no longer current due to significant declines in the price of oil in the meantime. The IAMB has not yet announced a corrected date. Under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1859 (December 22, 2008) the IAMB authority ends on December 31, 2009. This refers to a 2009 "transition to successor arrangement" from the DFI and the IAMD to Iraqi-led auditing processes. In October 2006, the Committee of Financial Experts (COFE) was approved by the Iraqi cabinet. Its task is to oversee oil revenue collection and administration. The president of the COFE authorized its activities in April 2007, and it currently is working with the IAMB on audit procedures. The establishment of an audit oversight committee for the DFI and oil export revenues is a structural benchmark under Iraq's Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund currently satisfied by the extension of the IAMB arrangement and the creation of the COFE. Agreements with members of the Paris club made the approval of the SBA into a necessity.39 The IAMB said in 2009 that Iraq's Committee of Financial Experts "is ready and capable to succeed the IAMB and conduct competent and independent oversight of the DFI." Immunity provisions included in standing UN Security Council resolutions protect Iraqi funds in the DFI from property attachment motions instead of legal judgments rendered against the former Iraqi regime. President Bush extended the U.S. legal protections for the DFI and other Iraqi assets under Executive Order 13303 through May 20, 2009. President Obama prolonged the protections until May 2010.40 Iraq will receive continued support from the United States in its attempts to convince the UN to extend related protections for energy proceeds and the DFI under Article 26 of the U.S.-Iraq security agreement. Oversight of Oil Production and Revenue Management Between its creation in May 2003 until December 31, 2007, the DFI received over $121.7 billion in oil proceeds and other deposits. According to audit estimates, an additional $58.8 billion in net export proceeds were deposited in 2008. Intermittent audits done in conjunction with the IAMB have routinely found serious discrepancies in oil production and export figures and DFI account receipt and distribution amounts. The absence of reliable output measurements for oil has been a critical and ongoing problem. During the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) period, there was no metering equipment available for oil production and exports. According to a May 2007 GAO report, there have been no improvements in reliable metering in Iraq's oil fields. This has contributed to the shortage of reliable data on Iraq's oil production and related revenue.42. In January 2008, an IAMB report claimed that Iraq's Ministry of Oil "does not have in place a full operational loading and metering system at production and loading points in order to determine produced and loaded quantities [of oil] accurately." An IAMB report in June 2008 established that "some metering has been installed at oil terminals, but there continues to be no metering in the oil fields." In April 2009, the IAMB stated that "much remains to be done before a fully operational control and measurement system over the oil production, distribution and export sales, can be comprehensively implemented," and added that, "Indications from the Ministry of Oil point to implementation by 2011 at the earliest." Financial audits completed by December 2005 established that "no comprehensive financial and internal controls policies and procedures manuals" existed in the Iraqi ministries that were spending oil export proceeds delivered through the DFI system. On June 12, 2007, the IAMB commented on its 2006 findings, noting that the audits proved "the overall financial system of controls is deficient." The audits showed there was "no overall comprehensive system of controls over oil revenues," and that "basic administrative procedures" were "outdated and ineffective." These conditions may have contributed to widespread corruption. Several Iraqi ministries spending distributed oil export revenue have been accused of corruption which is often associated with weak contracting and cash management policies. The Iraqi government's attempts to respond to IAMB recommendations were noticed by the IAMB's preliminary findings for 2007, but also noted that "the overall financial system of controls in place in the spending ministries, the U.S. agencies in respect of outstanding commitments using DFI resources, and the Iraqi administration of DFI resources remain deficient." The 2008 preliminary assessment, released in April 2009, concluded that "much remains to be done before a sound financial management system is operating effectively in Iraq".

Hamas's attack on Israel last week was what any reasonable person would consider an atrocity deserving of moral outrage. Hundreds of innocent civilians were killed, and dozens more were taken into captivity. It thus is understandable that such an event would elicit intense emotion and a thirst for revenge.Being understandable is not the same as being wise or effective, for Israel itself or for regional peace and security.Israel has now embarked on a violent offensive against the Gaza Strip and its residents. However, as much as that offensive may be defended as intended to establish deterrence or to destroy a hostile military force, it is in large part an act of raw revenge. It is a national catharsis amid an atmosphere of intense grief and anger.The casualty count from the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip is rising too fast to venture an up-to-date figure, but Palestinian health authorities reported that as of Monday, 2,800 Palestinians had been killed and 10,000 wounded, with more than half of the dead being women and children. In addition, Israel — which already had maintained a blockade of Gaza — cut off all movement of food, fuel, water, and electricity to the territory. This is quickly generating a humanitarian disaster of a proportion commensurate with the Strip's population of more than two million, with specific consequences ranging from hospitals lacking the supplies and electric power needed to treat the wounded to families running short of food.On top of all this, Israel, through a pre-invasion warning leaflet, has told the more than one million residents of Gaza City and the rest of the northern half of the Strip to head south. Given the lack of food, water, and housing wherever those people could go, such a movement, as U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres has stated, ranges between the "extremely dangerous" and the "impossible." Evacuation does not even buy safety, as indicated by lethal Israeli attacks on convoys that were using what Israel had designated as a "safe route."The scale of physical human suffering in the Gaza Strip already exceeds what Hamas inflicted on Israel last week. And Israel is just getting started as the Israeli aerial assault is likely to transition to a ground offensive.Given the extensive and careful planning that clearly went into the recent Hamas attack, it can be assumed that Hamas's planning did not end there. The group surely anticipated a strong Israeli reprisal, has done all it can to prepare for that reprisal, and has calculated that when the whole episode is over it will have served Hamas's interests more than Israel's. Drawing Israel into an extremely difficult urban warfare campaign on Hamas's own turf may have been one of the group's objectives.The hostages Hamas seized in southern Israel (as many as 150) vastly complicates any Israeli military operation. Hamas claims that Israeli airstrikes already have killed 13 of the hostages — an unconfirmed but plausible claim given the destruction from the airstrikes. The remaining hostages will be in grave danger from a ground assault, regardless of whether Hamas positions them to function as human shields.Animosity across the region and much of the rest of the world will be substantial and will work against Israeli interests and Israeli security. Arab governments will be less inclined than before to expand relations with Israel.In the occupied West Bank — where even before October 7, anger over Israeli policies and actions made the chance of a new popular uprising or intifada significant — heightened anger over more Israeli killing of Palestinian brethren in Gaza increases that chance. There already are signs of the current violence in Gaza spilling over into the West Bank, with at least 46 Palestinians killed and 700 injured in clashes with Israeli security forces and settlers since the Hamas attack.In Gaza itself, an expansion of Israeli-inflicted bloodshed among the Palestinian residents will feed expanded anger against Israel among the remaining residents, with all the potential for new violence that such anger always has entailed. Destruction of Hamas's military capability, even if that could be completely achieved, does not remove the problem. Hamas was never the whole story of violent Palestinian reaction to Israeli policies. Much of the recent rocket fire from Gaza has been carried out by the Palestine Islamic Jihad, a smaller and more radical Gaza-based group. The anger and the violence will find other channels — perhaps through groups and cells not yet formed — even if neither Hamas nor the PIJ were still functional.The Israeli objective in a new ground invasion of Gaza may go beyond "mowing the lawn," to use the Israelis' term for their periodic surges in military attacks against Palestinians, and extend to destroying the ability of Hamas to function any more as Gaza's de facto government. But even if that objective is achieved, then a big unanswered question is, who does govern the Gaza Strip? The Palestinian Authority is widely discredited among Palestinians and seems unable to rise above its residual role as a security auxiliary to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank. Direct Israeli rule of Gaza would be a prescription for even more resentment over occupation and more potential for violent Israeli-Palestinian clashes.U.S. policy on the crisis shows signs of having been swept up in some of the same emotions and rage as most Israelis have. In this respect, the policy is tracking with a broader mood that the Hamas attack has generated in the American body politic, in which the safest public posture is expression of unflinching support for Israel. It is even more hazardous to one's political health than it usually is to say anything that places the crisis within the context of longstanding Israeli policies toward the Palestinians. Related to this, the Biden policy of essentially going all in with Israel likely has domestic political calculations behind it.The administration's pronouncements have often reduced the crisis to an easy-to-emote-over tale of good versus evil, which ignores likely motivations for what was a carefully calculated attack undertaken in response to Israeli policies and actions.Continuing this theme, administration officials have likened what Hamas did to the Islamic State or ISIS. The brutal tactics that Hamas used during its incursion into southern Israel can indeed be compared to some notorious actions by ISIS, but beyond that the comparison is meaningless. ISIS is not part of any longstanding situation comparable to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory. ISIS is an international terrorist group whose ideology and ambitions know no international boundaries.Hamas is a nationalist group seeking political power in a Palestinian state and has no interest in international terrorism beyond that theater. ISIS has never spoken about observing an open-ended truce to live peacefully next to a state that is currently its adversary. Hamas has. ISIS has never competed in, much less won, a free and fair election. Hamas has. Why and how the tactics and objectives of Hamas have evolved into what it displayed this month have to do with peaceful avenues of competition being closed. To reduce the entire conflict into a matter of one set of outrageous tactics is to miss all the other dimensions of that conflict.Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has been calling for de-escalation. Russia and China have called for an immediate cease-fire, and Russia is proposing a U.N. Security Council resolution to that effect.The Biden administration is moving in the opposite direction. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on social media endorsed Turkish efforts to secure a cease-fire, but later deleted the post. While President Biden said on Sunday that Israeli occupation of Gaza would be a "big mistake," current administration policy is to otherwise endorse the escalation of the violence that Israel currently is conducting in the Gaza Strip.The administration should think carefully about how U.S. interests differ from Israeli interests and objectives. Israel violently exacting revenge in this case is not a U.S. interest. Given that the foremost responsibility of a government is ensuring the safety and security of its own citizens, one of the important U.S. interests at stake concerns how some of those citizens may have become hostages in the Gaza Strip and will be greatly endangered by escalated Israeli military attacks.In addition to Americans among the hostages Hamas seized, an estimated 500 to 600 other U.S. citizens — mostly Palestinian Americans — are in the Gaza Strip. They are hostages, too — trapped there after the Israeli shutdown of all movement in and out of the territory, and in serious danger of becoming casualties of Israeli air or ground operations. One of those Americans, a woman whose home is Salt Lake City and currently is stuck in Gaza with her family, said, "I feel like I've been abandoned by my country. We're American citizens and we're not being treated as American citizens."Another U.S. interest is preventing the current warfare to spread regionally. The more that the fighting involving Israelis and Gazans escalates, the greater is the danger of such spread, even though other actors in the region are not seeking a wider war. Those in the U.S. who habitually try to stir up conflict with Iran are using the current crisis to do more stirring. This is despite the fact that no evidence has emerged of any direct Iranian role in the Hamas attack — as attested to most convincingly by official Israeli spokespeople, given that the Israeli government usually is eager to implicate Iran in anything condemnable. Press reports citing sources within the U.S. government indicate that Iranian government officials were surprised by Hamas's action.The Biden administration nonetheless has foolishly picked this moment to draw Iran into the Gaza crisis in a way by reneging at least temporarily on its commitment, under a recent prisoner swap deal that freed five imprisoned Americans, to permit some frozen Iranian assets to be used for humanitarian purposes inside Iran. Accusations by opponents of the administration that this money had some connection, however indirect, with Hamas military operations are patently false, given that none of the money involved had yet been expensed. The administration's move will further damage U.S. credibility regarding a willingness to make good on commitments, thereby making it more difficult for the U.S. to reach beneficial agreements with any other government, not just Iran.The administration evidently wanted to make a critical statement about the longstanding and well-known supply relationship between Iran and Hamas. If a patron that has supplied arms or money to a client is to be punished — to the extent even of previous agreements being reneged upon — this raises a question about yet another U.S. interest at stake in the current crisis: avoiding opprobrium and repercussions stemming from some other state's actions.If Iran is to be condemned for any actions by Hamas, even actions Iran did not instigate or control, then what is the attitude to be taken toward the United States regarding destructive and anger-inducing actions in Gaza by its client Israel, the recipient of voluminous U.S. financial, military, and diplomatic support?The world won't likely remember gentle admonitions from President Biden about observing the rule of law. It will instead focus on the U.S. effectively giving a green light for — and materially assisting — an assault that not only flouts the laws of war but brings death and suffering to thousands of innocent persons.There will be hostile reactions to all this, including from violent extremist groups. Revenge is an urge that is not unique to Israelis. Those who are quick to make comparisons with ISIS should reflect on the fact that probably the most consistent theme in the propaganda, interrogations, and claims of terrorists — including al-Qaida — who have attacked U.S. interests has been U.S. support for Israel and its treatment of the Palestinians.

Problem formulation. The problem of organizing state and non-state institutions to combat the spread of fakes in the information space is to establish a parity (balance) between: citizens right to receive reliable/legal information protection, freedom of speech protection and expression (civil liberties) and protection of national interests of Ukraine. The existing imbalance caused by the lack of effective mechanisms to counteract misinformation and its dissemination through social media. In the EU countries at the state level the fight is not against misinformation, but with illegal (harmful, dangerous) content in the media and social media, which is ineffective for Ukraine in the face of existing challenges and threats related to the military conflict and occupation of part of state territory, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic. Previously unresolved parts of the overall problem. An unresolved part of the general problem is the lack of proper scientific substantiation of state mechanisms to combat disinformation and its dissemination in the media and social media. The aim of the article is to develop strategic approaches and practical recommendations for combating misinformation and its dissemination in Ukraine by social media in the context of information and psychological attacks and the Covid-19 pandemic. Main material. Digital technologies and information flows form practically all social processes faced by modern society. Thanks to built-in microprocessors, algorithmic devices and information systems combine texts, sounds and images that are easily stored and reproduced in digital format. The transfer of mass communication to the Internet has led to the transition of target audiences from traditional media to social networks. Without diminishing the benefits, opportunities and prospects that the digital world opens to humanity, it is necessary to actualize the significance of the negative side of the digital development of mass communication. Digital realities open up new possibilities for the introduction of various manipulation tools, among which misinformation is especially dangerous. Post-truth interpretation refers to artificial circumstances in which the emotions and personal beliefs of target audiences are more important than objective facts and evidence that become irrelevant, particularly in shaping public opinion and influencing the mass consciousness. Post-truth is not just the opposite of truth, but rather a phenomenon of purposeful introduction of proactive communication, which as a set of different and interconnected actions, due to its recombined qualities and combination of different components misleads recipients of information in order to subdue them. The consequence is a decrease in the level of trust in the received information and media. People are confused, it becomes difficult for them to separate true information from false information, they do not realize what is true and what media can be trusted. The post-truth politics is realized through "soft" and gradual transformation of the system of national values and moral principles into so-called alternative "universal norms of morality" to absolutize individual freedom, discredit expert opinions and rational discussions, and most importantly to destroy information sovereignty. One of the effective tools for implementing such a policy is gaslighting - a form of organized influence of suggestors (manipulators, politicians, officials) on the processes of public self-identification in order to disorient them and further subdue by provoking uncertainty and doubts about the adequacy of their perception of reality. Victims of gaslighting no longer trust their values, ideals and beliefs, and in despair they give up and by default fall under the influence of manipulators. Such people do not even realize that they are consumers of misinformation. Global networks are becoming a suitable environment for gas writers, as the constant presence of the vast majority of users on social networks and media channels is caused by the growing level of Internet addiction and digital autism, which create a person first addiction and secondly dangerous state of inability to maintain psychological support. languages with other individuals. That is, the digital transformation of everyday life contributes to the loss of people's communication skills of real communication. The loss of the ability to think adequately, independently and analytically is also negative, because the content and meaning of what is happening around them is formed by social media and digital algorithms of artificial intelligence. Influencing citizens by external propagandists' manipulation means disseminate not only criminal and illegal content through social media, but also directly implement political scenarios of changes in national values, the overthrow of the government, provoke armed conflicts, and so on. Disinformation contributes to a geometrically progressive increase in the incidence of the population, which leads to the introduction by the authorities of some regulatory (remediation) measures that may impair freedom of speech and freedom of expression, restrict freedom of assembly and access to public information. In order to obtain the necessary parity between the appropriateness of the application of regulatory measures to combat misinformation to protect the right to reliable and lawful information and the exercise of civil liberties (rights to freedom expression), it is necessary to legally define the grounds, limits and criteria limitation. The dissemination of harmful information cannot be overcome post-factum with the help of targeted sanctions, under these conditions rapid preventive measures are needed. In this context, the media play a key role in combating fakes and are accountable to the state and society for failing to provide accurate and reliable information to the public. Social media units, multinational corporations (digital producers), administrators of social networking platforms, non-governmental organizations and international institutions, civil society and independent media are the subjects of counteraction to the spread of disinformation by social media. Conclusions and recommendations. The significance of the negative consequences of the digital development of mass communication is actualized, the virtual reality of which opens new possibilities for the introduction of various manipulation tools, among which misinformation carries a special danger. It has been proven that misinformation is successfully disseminated through aggressive information campaigns and lack of knowledge about threats and existing vulnerabilities of society, and more effectively affects target audiences by disrupting the interaction (cooperation and communication) of actors to counter its dissemination at the national and international levels. It is substantiated that modern management processes are formed under the influence of post-truth policy, one of the effective tools of which is gaslighting. The main factors that contribute to the spread of misinformation through social media are identified: the effectiveness of the impact on the mass consciousness; scale, high speed and rate of distribution; stability of online presence (causes cumulative effect); intentional promotion of content by artificially adding it to disseminated information flows through popular media and resources; high quality, multidimensionality and variety of fake products, which are perfectly combined in the form of texts, images and videos; easy availability, high-tech and convenience of software for creating fakes. The necessity of disseminating positive Ukrainian narratives by social media as a tool to counteract misinformation and information defense of the country has been proved. It is proposed to involve the best representatives of the Ukrainian elite: patriotic politicians and public figures (opinion leaders), bloggers, volunteers, scientists, cultural and artistic figures for this case. It is substantiated that state public policy subjects of counteracting disinformation and its dissemination (Center for Counteracting Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security of the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine and National Council of Ukraine on Television and Radio Broadcasting) flows in the middle of the country, if necessary, applying the necessary remedial action, study the target audiences, identify, analyze and assess their vulnerabilities (public fears, doubts, etc.), predict possible information attacks on Ukraine. It is necessary to constantly cooperate with digital media and mass media through information and communication campaigns. Practical recommendations were given to state/non-state subjects of counteraction of misinformation on struggle in Ukraine against production of fake content by means of social media. It is necessary: to create a favorable socio-economic, institutional-legal and information-communicative environment for quality and independent journalism, as well as an independent community of fact-checkers as a form of journalistic control to verify the facts used in texts, speeches, social networks posts and identify possible inconsistencies; to disseminate accurate, reliable and objective information on the basis of responsible and independent journalism, to prevent the dissemination of fabricated and manipulative content; to produce positive Ukrainian narratives as a tool of information defense, to prevent the emergence of fakes (instead of refuting fakes - to act in advance), promptly and without explanation to remove/block malicious content in accordance with the law and "community policy"; to set requirements for the media platforms transparency (their activities, funding sources, owners), define criteria and algorithms for ranking information, as well as legally and legitimately require social media to remove illegal content and block its distributors; to monitor, moderate and control the social media content on the basis of legality, transparency and compliance with international human rights standards with the use of means to protect them; to regulate and control the distribution of advertising on news resources of the media and social media, in particular to ensure verification of the transparency and veracity of its sponsored political content, as well as limit of its targeting in order to minimize the income of disinformation disseminators; to promote digital services of voluntary users identification in the online space; to ensure easy, fast and reliable access to all official documents, regulated by the Council of Europe Convention on Access to Official Documents, ratified by Ukraine in 2020 (Council of Europe Convention on Access to Official Documents, 2009); to delegate to search platforms and social networks to determine the truth/falsity of information using artificial intelligence algorithms, remembering that these algorithms can be used to detect/remove misinformation, and vice versa - to create fake information (for example, to form the necessary public opinion misinformation is directed to a specific target audience, taking into account its features and characteristics through algorithmic analysis of messages on social networks, preferences, a selection of sources of user content); to ensure that the majority of the population masters the media literacy and cyberhygiene basics, in particular to encourage and promote the introduction of specialized media programs on information and digital literacy for most people to understand the functions and ramifications of artificial intelligence algorithms, the ability to make informed decisions minimize the impact of threats (risks) associated with the use of such systems, in cooperation with relevant stakeholders, including the private sector, the media, civil society, educational institutions and scientific and technical institutions. Key words: post-truth politics, misinformation, gaslighting, mass media, social media, social networks, fact-checking, media literacy, information campaigns, infodemia, digital technologies, digital transformations, artificial intelligence algorithms. ; У статті охарактеризовано проблеми організації боротьби із поширенням фейків в інформаційному просторі, які пов'язані з відсутністю ефективних державних механізмів протидії дезінформації та її поширенню засобами соціальних медіа. Доведено, що в країнах ЄС здійснюється боротьба не з дезінформацією, а з незаконним (шкідливим, небезпечним) контентом, що поширюється у ЗМІ та соціальних мережах, що є неефективним в умовах існуючих викликів та загроз, які пов'язані з військовим конфліктом та окупацією частини території України, а також пандемією Сovid-19, спричиненої коронавірусом SARS-CoV-2. Актуалізовано значущість негативних наслідків цифрового розвитку масової комунікації, реалії якого відкривають нові можливості запровадження різних інструментів маніпулювання, особливу небезпеку серед яких становить дезінформація. Охарактеризовано управлінські процеси, які формуються під впливом політики постправди, одним з ефективних інструментів реалізації якої є газлайтинг. Визначено основні фактори, які сприяють поширенню дезінформації засобами соціальних медіа. Доведено необхідність поширення засобами соціальних медіа позитивних українських наратив як інструменту протидії дезінформації та здійснення інформаційної оборони країни. Визначено державні суб'єкти вироблення публічної політики з протидії дезінформації та її поширенню в Україні, а також надано практичні рекомендації щодо боротьби з продукуванням фейкового контенту засобами соціальних медіа. Ключові слова: політика постправди; дезінформація; газлайтинг; засоби масової комунікації; засоби масової інформації; соціальні медіа; соціальні мережі; фактчекінг; медіаграмотність; інформаційні кампанії; інфодемія; цифрові технології; цифрові трансформації; алгоритми штучного інтелекту.

Problem formulation. The problem of organizing state and non-state institutions to combat the spread of fakes in the information space is to establish a parity (balance) between: citizens right to receive reliable/legal information protection, freedom of speech protection and expression (civil liberties) and protection of national interests of Ukraine. The existing imbalance caused by the lack of effective mechanisms to counteract misinformation and its dissemination through social media. In the EU countries at the state level the fight is not against misinformation, but with illegal (harmful, dangerous) content in the media and social media, which is ineffective for Ukraine in the face of existing challenges and threats related to the military conflict and occupation of part of state territory, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic. Previously unresolved parts of the overall problem. An unresolved part of the general problem is the lack of proper scientific substantiation of state mechanisms to combat disinformation and its dissemination in the media and social media. The aim of the article is to develop strategic approaches and practical recommendations for combating misinformation and its dissemination in Ukraine by social media in the context of information and psychological attacks and the Covid-19 pandemic. Main material. Digital technologies and information flows form practically all social processes faced by modern society. Thanks to built-in microprocessors, algorithmic devices and information systems combine texts, sounds and images that are easily stored and reproduced in digital format. The transfer of mass communication to the Internet has led to the transition of target audiences from traditional media to social networks. Without diminishing the benefits, opportunities and prospects that the digital world opens to humanity, it is necessary to actualize the significance of the negative side of the digital development of mass communication. Digital realities open up new possibilities for the introduction of various manipulation tools, among which misinformation is especially dangerous. Post-truth interpretation refers to artificial circumstances in which the emotions and personal beliefs of target audiences are more important than objective facts and evidence that become irrelevant, particularly in shaping public opinion and influencing the mass consciousness. Post-truth is not just the opposite of truth, but rather a phenomenon of purposeful introduction of proactive communication, which as a set of different and interconnected actions, due to its recombined qualities and combination of different components misleads recipients of information in order to subdue them. The consequence is a decrease in the level of trust in the received information and media. People are confused, it becomes difficult for them to separate true information from false information, they do not realize what is true and what media can be trusted. The post-truth politics is realized through "soft" and gradual transformation of the system of national values and moral principles into so-called alternative "universal norms of morality" to absolutize individual freedom, discredit expert opinions and rational discussions, and most importantly to destroy information sovereignty. One of the effective tools for implementing such a policy is gaslighting - a form of organized influence of suggestors (manipulators, politicians, officials) on the processes of public self-identification in order to disorient them and further subdue by provoking uncertainty and doubts about the adequacy of their perception of reality. Victims of gaslighting no longer trust their values, ideals and beliefs, and in despair they give up and by default fall under the influence of manipulators. Such people do not even realize that they are consumers of misinformation. Global networks are becoming a suitable environment for gas writers, as the constant presence of the vast majority of users on social networks and media channels is caused by the growing level of Internet addiction and digital autism, which create a person first addiction and secondly dangerous state of inability to maintain psychological support. languages with other individuals. That is, the digital transformation of everyday life contributes to the loss of people's communication skills of real communication. The loss of the ability to think adequately, independently and analytically is also negative, because the content and meaning of what is happening around them is formed by social media and digital algorithms of artificial intelligence. Influencing citizens by external propagandists' manipulation means disseminate not only criminal and illegal content through social media, but also directly implement political scenarios of changes in national values, the overthrow of the government, provoke armed conflicts, and so on. Disinformation contributes to a geometrically progressive increase in the incidence of the population, which leads to the introduction by the authorities of some regulatory (remediation) measures that may impair freedom of speech and freedom of expression, restrict freedom of assembly and access to public information. In order to obtain the necessary parity between the appropriateness of the application of regulatory measures to combat misinformation to protect the right to reliable and lawful information and the exercise of civil liberties (rights to freedom expression), it is necessary to legally define the grounds, limits and criteria limitation. The dissemination of harmful information cannot be overcome post-factum with the help of targeted sanctions, under these conditions rapid preventive measures are needed. In this context, the media play a key role in combating fakes and are accountable to the state and society for failing to provide accurate and reliable information to the public. Social media units, multinational corporations (digital producers), administrators of social networking platforms, non-governmental organizations and international institutions, civil society and independent media are the subjects of counteraction to the spread of disinformation by social media. Conclusions and recommendations. The significance of the negative consequences of the digital development of mass communication is actualized, the virtual reality of which opens new possibilities for the introduction of various manipulation tools, among which misinformation carries a special danger. It has been proven that misinformation is successfully disseminated through aggressive information campaigns and lack of knowledge about threats and existing vulnerabilities of society, and more effectively affects target audiences by disrupting the interaction (cooperation and communication) of actors to counter its dissemination at the national and international levels. It is substantiated that modern management processes are formed under the influence of post-truth policy, one of the effective tools of which is gaslighting. The main factors that contribute to the spread of misinformation through social media are identified: the effectiveness of the impact on the mass consciousness; scale, high speed and rate of distribution; stability of online presence (causes cumulative effect); intentional promotion of content by artificially adding it to disseminated information flows through popular media and resources; high quality, multidimensionality and variety of fake products, which are perfectly combined in the form of texts, images and videos; easy availability, high-tech and convenience of software for creating fakes. The necessity of disseminating positive Ukrainian narratives by social media as a tool to counteract misinformation and information defense of the country has been proved. It is proposed to involve the best representatives of the Ukrainian elite: patriotic politicians and public figures (opinion leaders), bloggers, volunteers, scientists, cultural and artistic figures for this case. It is substantiated that state public policy subjects of counteracting disinformation and its dissemination (Center for Counteracting Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security of the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine and National Council of Ukraine on Television and Radio Broadcasting) flows in the middle of the country, if necessary, applying the necessary remedial action, study the target audiences, identify, analyze and assess their vulnerabilities (public fears, doubts, etc.), predict possible information attacks on Ukraine. It is necessary to constantly cooperate with digital media and mass media through information and communication campaigns. Practical recommendations were given to state/non-state subjects of counteraction of misinformation on struggle in Ukraine against production of fake content by means of social media. It is necessary: to create a favorable socio-economic, institutional-legal and information-communicative environment for quality and independent journalism, as well as an independent community of fact-checkers as a form of journalistic control to verify the facts used in texts, speeches, social networks posts and identify possible inconsistencies; to disseminate accurate, reliable and objective information on the basis of responsible and independent journalism, to prevent the dissemination of fabricated and manipulative content; to produce positive Ukrainian narratives as a tool of information defense, to prevent the emergence of fakes (instead of refuting fakes - to act in advance), promptly and without explanation to remove/block malicious content in accordance with the law and "community policy"; to set requirements for the media platforms transparency (their activities, funding sources, owners), define criteria and algorithms for ranking information, as well as legally and legitimately require social media to remove illegal content and block its distributors; to monitor, moderate and control the social media content on the basis of legality, transparency and compliance with international human rights standards with the use of means to protect them; to regulate and control the distribution of advertising on news resources of the media and social media, in particular to ensure verification of the transparency and veracity of its sponsored political content, as well as limit of its targeting in order to minimize the income of disinformation disseminators; to promote digital services of voluntary users identification in the online space; to ensure easy, fast and reliable access to all official documents, regulated by the Council of Europe Convention on Access to Official Documents, ratified by Ukraine in 2020 (Council of Europe Convention on Access to Official Documents, 2009); to delegate to search platforms and social networks to determine the truth/falsity of information using artificial intelligence algorithms, remembering that these algorithms can be used to detect/remove misinformation, and vice versa - to create fake information (for example, to form the necessary public opinion misinformation is directed to a specific target audience, taking into account its features and characteristics through algorithmic analysis of messages on social networks, preferences, a selection of sources of user content); to ensure that the majority of the population masters the media literacy and cyberhygiene basics, in particular to encourage and promote the introduction of specialized media programs on information and digital literacy for most people to understand the functions and ramifications of artificial intelligence algorithms, the ability to make informed decisions minimize the impact of threats (risks) associated with the use of such systems, in cooperation with relevant stakeholders, including the private sector, the media, civil society, educational institutions and scientific and technical institutions. Key words: post-truth politics, misinformation, gaslighting, mass media, social media, social networks, fact-checking, media literacy, information campaigns, infodemia, digital technologies, digital transformations, artificial intelligence algorithms. ; У статті охарактеризовано проблеми організації боротьби із поширенням фейків в інформаційному просторі, які пов'язані з відсутністю ефективних державних механізмів протидії дезінформації та її поширенню засобами соціальних медіа. Доведено, що в країнах ЄС здійснюється боротьба не з дезінформацією, а з незаконним (шкідливим, небезпечним) контентом, що поширюється у ЗМІ та соціальних мережах, що є неефективним в умовах існуючих викликів та загроз, які пов'язані з військовим конфліктом та окупацією частини території України, а також пандемією Сovid-19, спричиненої коронавірусом SARS-CoV-2. Актуалізовано значущість негативних наслідків цифрового розвитку масової комунікації, реалії якого відкривають нові можливості запровадження різних інструментів маніпулювання, особливу небезпеку серед яких становить дезінформація. Охарактеризовано управлінські процеси, які формуються під впливом політики постправди, одним з ефективних інструментів реалізації якої є газлайтинг. Визначено основні фактори, які сприяють поширенню дезінформації засобами соціальних медіа. Доведено необхідність поширення засобами соціальних медіа позитивних українських наратив як інструменту протидії дезінформації та здійснення інформаційної оборони країни. Визначено державні суб'єкти вироблення публічної політики з протидії дезінформації та її поширенню в Україні, а також надано практичні рекомендації щодо боротьби з продукуванням фейкового контенту засобами соціальних медіа. Ключові слова: політика постправди; дезінформація; газлайтинг; засоби масової комунікації; засоби масової інформації; соціальні медіа; соціальні мережі; фактчекінг; медіаграмотність; інформаційні кампанії; інфодемія; цифрові технології; цифрові трансформації; алгоритми штучного інтелекту.

A Thesis for applying for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences ; This study is concerned with the questions: how tourism players perceive sustainable tourism and whether sustainable tourism planning practices include virtual travel as a means to improve visitor experiences. Furthermore, how efficient and satisfactory a substitute, virtual experience may be, as an alternative to a real visit to a nature destination. The goal was set to research the drivers that may favour tourists' acceptance of virtual substitutions over real experiences. Travel often means transportation and need for place change, but travelling to a destination gives this sense of place change, and a VR facility in that place could provide tourist's experiences that local nature could give. It is postulated that when compared to individuals with weaker pro-ecological attitudes, those with stronger pro-ecological attitudes are more likely to accept the virtual tourism (VT) opportunities, research suggests that there are some VT features which are not accepted and others which are accepted by tourists The study focussed on the issue of virtual travel advantages and disadvantages and the role of pro-ecological motivations behind the choices between real travel and virtual travel. Research questions: • How tourism managers' perceptions of sustainable tourism affect sustainable tourism and sustainable tourism planning? (I, II) • How three-dimensional visualisation can facilitate sustainable tourism development and sustainable tourism planning? (I, II, III) • How tourist perceptions of virtual travel vary according to their individual need for emotional arousal from mediated experience, socio-demographic background, travel preferences, and pro-ecological motivations? (III) Documentary analysis (I) and interviews (I,II) were employed. Content analysis technique (I,II) was used. All answers were audio recorded, typed, divided into categories and sorted according to the main topic. 299 questionnaires were collected from tourists visiting Piusa Cave, GLM was employed to analyse results. This study indicated that comprehensive sustainable tourism practices are lacking in Russia. Russian tourism managers' attitudes towards sustainable tourism are mostly influenced by their personal background in the industry and less by internationally adopted concepts. Even though Russian tourism managers personal attitudes varied significantly and our findings demonstrated contradictory understandings of sustainable tourism phenomena among them, the consensus search rounds showed that the managers do recognise the possible negative impact of tourism on nature, and see sustainable tourism as part of their future business development strategies. The observed lack of understanding about sustainable tourism principles and the perceived low demand for such initiatives in state regulations and among potential clients, are the key reasons for Russian tourism managers' low motivation towards creating their own sustainable tourism initiatives. They also proposed that virtual travel may be a feasible strategy for destination management where carrying capacities are exceeded or where nature conservation measures are required (I). An individual's motivation to take part in sustainable tourism planning using three-dimensional visualization may be derived from such social structures as interest, desire, challenge or curiosity. While inclusion of interest groups in three-dimensional visualisation planning may significantly influence the flow and the value of the results of sustainable tourism planning, the same also happens when actually using the three dimensional visualisation tool. Integration of three-dimensional visualisation into sustainable tourism planning from the initialisation of the participatory development process provides more opportunities for comprehensive planning outcomes (II). Provision of several alternative landscape three-dimensional visualisation scenarios provides better sustainable tourism planning results. Virtual travel plays a positive role as a sustainable tourism planning facilitator in participatory development. Factors to consider in maintaining a quality sustainable tourism planning experience include: precise selection of objects for three dimensional visualisation, idealization level and an intuitive user interface. A neutral moderator in three dimensional visualisation planning is thus a prerequisite and is especially important when dealing with the problem of conflicting interests in sustainable tourism planning. This study revealed that tourists accepting of a low level of arousal from virtual travel have lower socio-economic security, they are also less motivated by social interaction and adventure. Tourists most accepting of virtual travel are less striving, and less interested in the societal impact of their lives. It was proposed that virtual travel may serve as a substitute for nature-based travel. The study shows that at the current state of three dimensional visualization technologies, virtual travel is capable of satisfying sophisticated hedonic needs of tourists. Those who like active outdoors, are unsurprisingly, less satisfied with virtual travel. Virtual travel also could be instrumental in nature experiences to tourists with lower travel budgets. Sustainable tourism development within nature-based tourism may reduce damage to the natural environment and local culture by minimising the impact of physical tourism infrastructure (roads, path, buildings) construction in cases where tourists can be offered alternative experiences of virtual travel as complementarities to conventional tourism. Virtual travel may show landscapes and enable tourists to get an impression of natural sightseeing without physical visits to real destinations. This in turn may increase opportunities for virtual tourism activity and benefit local communities. An encountered weakness of virtual travel is that tourists may perceive such travel experiences as less satisfactory in comparison to real trips. This study revealed potential key strategies for overcoming the obstacles for sustainable tourism development in Eastern Europe. Firstly, significant cooperation is required among stakeholders (local authorities, tourism managers, tourists, local population) to tailor more effective international and local legislation in the field of sustainable tourism, and for ensuring proper enforcement of this legislation. Secondly, the promotion of environmental education, including sustainability training among Russian tourism players, is highly recommended. Thirdly, virtual travel even though not an equal substitute for real visits, is a potential solution for implementing sustainable tourism strategies. Thus, further research could aim to establish whether virtual travel derived from real destinations where carrying capacities are exceeded may benefit nature conservation, and could be a means to raising tourists' awareness of tourism's environmental and social impacts. ; Käesolev uurimus otsib vastust küsimusele: kuidas turismi huvirühmad tajuvad säästvat turismi ja säästva turismi planeerimispraktikate parendamist virtuaalse reisimise abiga. Lisaks uuritakse kui tõhusalt ja rahuldavalt asendab virtuaalne kogemus loodusliku sihtkoha tegelikku külastamist. Uurimuse eesmärgiks seati uurida ajendeid, mis soodustavad seda, et turistid eelistavad reaalsetele kogemustele nende virtuaalset asendust. Reisimine tähendab sageli transporti ja asukoha muutust, ning reisimine sihtkohta annab muutuse toimumise tunde ja virtuaalne külastus annab turistile võimaluse kogeda, mida kohalik loodus suudaks pakkuda. Töös postuleeritakse, et tugevama ökoloogilise hoiakuga isikud on suurema tõenäosusega avatud virtuaalse reisimise võimaluste kasutamisele võrreldes isikutega, kel ökoloogiline suhtumine on nõrgem. Uuringud on näidanud, et turistid aktsepteerivad mõningaid virtuaalse reisimise viise, kuid eitavad teisi. Uurimus keskendub virtuaalse reisimise eeliste ja puuduste uurimisele ja ökoloogiliste motiivide rollile, mis mõjutavad reaalse ja virtuaalse reisimise valikuid. Töö väljendab kolmes artiklis kajastatud uurimusi ja nende tulemusi, need on tähistatud vastavalt I, II ja III. Uurimisküsimused: • Kuidas turismi korraldajate säästva turismi tajumine mõjutab säästva turismi pakkumist ja säästva turismi planeerimist? (I, II) • Kuidas kolmemõõtmeline visualiseerimine (3D) soodustab säästva turismi arendamist ja säästva turismi planeerimist? (I, II, III) • Kuidas turistid tajuvad virtuaalset reisimist olenevalt nende elamusvajadusest , sotsiaal-demograafilisest taustast, reisimiseelistustest ja ökoloogilistest hoiakutest? (III) Metoodika Uurimisandmed koguti dokumendianalüüsist (I), süvaintervjuudes ja küsitlusest. Töö jaoks uuriti Venemaal praktiseeritavat säästva turismi korraldamist dokumentide (ametlikud turismitegevust suunavad dokumendid, arengustrateegiad, õigusaktid jt) analüüsi abil. Kasutati ka kontentanalüüsi (II). Intervjuud (I, II) turismiga seonduvate huvirühmade ja kohaliku kogukonna esindajatega lindistati, transkribeeriti, kodeeriti ja kategoriseeriti. Intervjueeriti Moskva (Venemaa) turismiettevõtjaid ja Eesti ettevõtjaid ja kogukonnaliikmeid. Lõuna-Eestis Piusa koobaste külastuskeskuses külastajate seas läbiviidud 299 küsitluse tulemusi analüüsiti üldistatud lineaarse mudeli abil (III). Virtuaalse reisimise vastuvõetavust kontrolliti rakendades väärtuste-uskumuste-normi teooria (Stern et al., 1995) edasiarendust, tuvastamaks, kuidas vastuvõetavust mõjutavad elamusvajadus, ökoloogilised väärtused, uskumused, normid ja kavatsused. Tulemused Uuring tõi välja, et Venemaal puuduvad komplekssed säästva turismi praktikad. Venemaa turismikorraldajate hoiakuid säästva turismi suhtes mõjutab peamiselt nende enda taust selles sektoris ja mitte nii palju rahvusvaheliselt omaksvõetud kontseptsioonid. Kuigi Venemaa turismikorraldajate isiklikud hoiakud varieerusid märgatavalt ja saadud tulemused demonstreerisid vastuolulisi arusaamu säästva turismi fenomeni olemusest, näitas Delphi meetodi rakendamine, et korraldajad tunnevad ära turismi võimaliku negatiivse mõju loodusele ja näevad säästvat turismi ühe osana oma tulevastest äri arendamise strateegiatest. Üksmeele puudumine säästva turismi põhimõtete suhtes ja tunnetatud vähene nõudlus selliste algatuste suhtes riiklikes õigusaktides ja võimalike klientide seas on peamised põhjused, miks vene turismikorraldajatel on madal motivatsioon ise säästva turismi algatustega välja tulla. Nad esitasid seisukoha, et virtuaalne reisimine on sihtkoha juhtimise puhul otstarbekas strateegia, kui piirkonna taluvusvõime on ületatud või vajaks looduskaitse alla võtmist (I). Üksikisiku motivatsioon säästva turismi planeerimises osalemiseks kui kasutatakse kolmemõõtmelist visualiseerimist tuleneb sellistest sotsiaalsetest motivatsiooni allikatest nagu osalussoov, väljakutse või uudishimu. Ehkki kolmemõõtmelise visualiseerimise planeerimise juures osalevad huvigrupid võivad märkimisväärselt mõjutada säästva turismi planeerimise kulgu ja väärtust, toimub sama ka siis, kui kasutatakse kolmemõõtmelise visualiseerimise tööriista. Kolmemõõtmelise visualiseerimise integreerimine säästva turismi planeerimisse kaasava arendamise protsessi algusest peale annab rohkem võimalusi igakülgsete planeerimistulemuste saamiseks (II). Mitme alternatiivse maastiku muutmise 3D-stsenaariumi kasutamine annab paremad säästva turismi planeerimise tulemused. Virtuaalne reisimine mängib kaasava arendamise protsessis soodustab säästva turismi planeerimist. Objektide täpne valimine kolmemõõtmelise visualiseerimise jaoks, detailsuse aste ja intuitiivne kasutaja liides on tegurid, mis teenivad kvaliteetse säästva turismi planeerimise eesmärki. Neutraalne moderaator on kolmemõõtmelise visualiseerimise planeerimise protsessi juures hädavajalik, eriti tähtis on ta siis, kui on tegu huvide konfliktiga säästva turismi planeerimises. Uurimus tõi välja, et virtuaalne reisimine on enam aktsepteeritav inimestele, kel on madal elamusvajadus, ja kes ei hooli sellest, et virtuaalne reisimine pakub vähem elavaid muljeid, koha vahetuse tunnet, ja kokkupuudet loodusega. Virtuaalne reisimine on aktsepteeritavam turistidele, kelle reisivalikute ajendite seas on sotsiaalne suhtlemine ja seikluslikkus vähem olulised. Virtuaalsest reisimisest enam huvitatud turistidväärtustavad vähem edasipüüdlikkust ja sotsiaalset mõjukust. Pakuti välja, et virtuaalne reisimine võiks olla looduspõhise reisimise asenduseks. Uurimus näitas, et kolmemõõtmeliste visualiseerimistehnoloogiate praeguses seisus on virtuaalne reisimine võimeline rahuldama hedonistlikumate, suurema mugavusvajadusega turistide vajadusi. Need, kellele meeldib aktiivne tegevus looduses, on vähem rahul virtuaalse reisimisega. Säästva turismi areng loodusturismi raames võib vähendada looduskeskkonnale ja kohalikule kultuurile tehtavat kahju, minimeerides kahju, mis tekib turismi füüsilise infrastruktuuri rajamisest (teed, rajad, hooned) neil juhtudel, kui turistidele saab pakkuda alternatiivseid kogemusi virtuaalsest reisimisest tavaturismi täiendusena. Virtuaalne reisimine saab näidata maastikke ja võimaldab turistidel koguda muljeid ilma reaalset sihtkohta füüsiliselt külastamata. See omakorda suurendab võimalusi virtuaalse turismi tegevusteks ja on soodne kohalikule kogukonnale. Virtuaalne reisimine on aktsepteeritav alternatiiv suurema mugavusvajadusega inimestele ja vanemaealistele inimestele. Uurimus tõi välja võimalikud peamised strateegiad, kuidas tulla toime takistustega säästva turismi arengus Ida-Euroopas. Esiteks on vaja märkimisväärset koostööd huvigruppide (kohalikud omavalitsused, turismikorraldajad, turistid, kohalikud elanikud) vahel, et luua tõhusamaid rahvusvahelisi ja kohalikke õigusakte säästva turismi valdkonnas ning tagada nende õigusaktide asjakohane ellurakendamine. Teiseks on äärmiselt vajalik edendada keskkonnaharidust, sh säästlikkuse koolituse pakkumist Venemaa turismitegijate seas. Kolmandaks, ehkki virtuaalne reisimine ei ole ehtsa reisimise samaväärne asendaja, on see ikkagi võimalik lahendus, et ellu viia säästva turismi strateegiaid. Seega võiks edaspidine uurimistöö püüda välja selgitada, kas virtuaalne reisimine, mis põhineb reaalsetel sihtkohtadel, kus taluvusvõime on ületatud, võiks tuua kasu loodushoiule ja olla vahend, millega tõsta turistide teadlikkust turismi keskkonna- ja sotsiaalsetest mõjudest. ; Publication of this thesis is supported by the Estonian University of Life Science and by the Doctoral School of Earth Science and Ecology created under the auspices of European Social Fund. This study was supported by the Estonian Ministry of Science and Education (institutional grant IUT-8-3), the European Commission through the European Regional Development Fund (Centre of Excellence EcolChange, TK 131), and the European Research Council (advanced grant 322603, SIP-VOL+).

Climate change is here and mitigation efforts will not be enough to stop it. We need to adapt to its unavoidable impacts. At the same time, increasing anthropogenic influence on urban climates is leading to worsening urban heat stress. Increased amounts of impervious area, dark surfaces, and the barrier effect of large buildings reduce the ability of especially dense, inner-city areas to cool themselves. The effects of climate change inside the city can vary greatly across different neighborhoods. This is due to the diverse micro- and macroclimates within a city and their unique ecological and meteorological conditions. Urban heat islands, for example, can exhibit temperatures up to four or five Kelvin hotter than surrounding regions and, therefore, threaten the health and the lives of urban citizens. Three quarters of Europeans live in cities. Nevertheless, despite intensifying attention to the issues of heat stress and climate adaptation, CO2 reduction remains the primary focus of public policy. Whether cities are ready to take on the challenge of responding to these threats is a significant concern for the future. Germany is known for having numerous regulations, laws, programs, and institutions; and the situation surrounding climate change is no different. Whether and how all these legal and organizational features are used in practice and to what extent they further the success of adaptation work needs more investigation. In the framework of the German Research Foundation Research program 1736 Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change (UCaHS), this work focuses, specifically on the treatment of these efforts in urban planning, specifically related to landscape, environmental, and land-use planning. It remains the case that planning and public policy lack an adequate body of knowledge about how to tackle urban heat stress, both legally and in the built environment. The administrative structure, legal context, and actions of major stakeholders were analyzed to help identify possible heat stress prevention and adaptation strategies, as well as the driving forces for and obstacles to their implementation. The climate adaptation plans of all German major cities and cities with a population density of 2,000 residents/ km2 and a population of at least 200,000 were evaluated to help illuminate how adaptation measures for heat stress have been implemented. Results showed a clear trend: despite the advancements made through the recent adoption of so many climate-related plans and programs, the movement towards adaptation to climate change is still cutting its teeth. Mitigation is still favored over real adaptation. Among the adaptation strategies that were chosen, so called 'no regret' strategies like greening or unsealing were preferred, i.e. those that were economically, ecologically, and socially useful, independent of their connection to climate change. Our study area, Berlin, was chosen as the best city for a case study about the role of climate adaptation plans in the implementation of adaptation measures. Berlin is Germany's most populous city and is well-suited to the study because of its characteristic heterogeneity. To identify the driving forces and barriers for adaptation measures, we used Constellation Analysis and Bayesian Network methodologies. Constellation Analysis helps bridge interdisciplinary borders, incorporating all actors (persons or groups), symbols (laws or guidelines), institutions, and other elements (like green roofs or façade greening) in a system and depicting their relationships. To identify the set screws and the likelihood for the implementation of adaptation measures, we used Bayesian Networks. In order to gain the necessary knowledge for these methods, semi structured expert interviews and workshops were conducted in addition to document analysis. In order to investigate the role of adaptation plans at the various planning levels, the City Climate Development Plan of Berlin was analyzed as an example. Constellation Analysis showed that connections between the different actors, institutions, and tools involved in adaptation planning and implementation are still inadequate. It also highlighted the individual block level as the planning stage most relevant for the implementation of adaptation measures. In a further step and in cooperation with the Research Module 3.2 and 5.1 of the UCaHS Projekt, three scenarios were prepared using the constellation analysis. 1. A scenario with little political attention for the reduction of urban heat. 2. A scenario with political focus on the city center. 3. A scenario with political efforts for heat reduction for the entire city. The aim was to develop governance storylines in order to identify possible ways of dealing with urban heat. These enable decision-makers to look into the future and, thus, to adjust their behavior. In previous analyses, the local land-use plan level was seen as the most relevant for the implementation of adaptation measures. This leads to the question of whether adaptation concerns can successfully gain hold in urban planning and land-use plans. How will these measures be implemented? Urban and environmental planning play a vital role in this process. Bayesian Network analysis was used to explore the likelihood of the development of climate-adapted local land-use plans. This method depicts initial systems and the likelihood of certain outcomes in order to define networks of probabilities. The process relied on expert opinions gathered in numerous semi structured interviews at all levels with the Berlin stakeholders who are involved with implementation of the local land-use process. The analysis showed that the chances of the implementation of adaptation factors rely on a combination of different factors. These include the presence of investors and of an environmental assessment, as well as the individual and often very situational decisions made by the person responsible for the implementation of the plan. In order to make an environmental impact statement, and therefore the end assessment, mandatory, § 13a of the Federal Building Code would need to be changed. But it is important the keep in mind that the presence of rules in the Federal Building Code are not enough to drive adaptation – informed and dedicated stakeholders on all planning levels and in the population are also needed. In Berlin, adaptation has not been a significant part of formal city and regional planning documents and processes. These administrative tools do, however, contain measures that could address adaptation, though they do not directly mention it. Unlike the formal instruments, the informal City Climate Development Plan includes many comprehensive strategies to deal with the effects of climate change. The development of informal plans like the City Climate Development Plan, KONKRET, in summer 2016 which shows exact recommendations how to implement adaptation measures, or other programs like environmental justice studies and the climate planning details map also hint at progress. Such work to expand adaptation knowledge and strategies is still young. As long as an action is voluntarily, though, it will only be taken up by those who already understand its purpose and benefit from it. The others, who don't know about or are not interested in adaptation, need to be given concrete and binding guidelines. A new round of policies, including the Renewable Energy Sources Act, the amendments to the landscape planning programs in summer 2016, and the planned adoption of the Berlin Energy and Climate Protection Program, which are at least obligatory for the public authorities, will all show how Berlin intends to tackle urban heat stress adaptation in the future. ; Der Klimawandel ist ein Thema, das spätestens seit den aufsehenerregenden Berichten des Internationalen Klimarates IPCC im Jahre 2007 große Besorgnis auslöste. Unvermindert steigt die globale Durchschnittstemperatur, aber ebenso unvermindert wachsen auch die Emissionen der sogenannten Treibhausgase weiter, die für die Erwärmung ursächlich sind. Die Folgen des Klimawandels sind weltweit unübersehbar und fordern neben den Strategien zum Klimaschutz (Mitigation) auch eine Anpassung an dessen unvermeidbaren Folgen (Adaption). Die in den Städten zunehmende Bebauung von Freiflächen, sowie die Zunahme von dunklen Oberflächen und die Barrierewirkung von Gebäuden führen zu einer reduzierten Durchlüftung und reduzierten Abkühlung in der schon meist sehr verdichteten Innenstadt. Auch wirkt sich der Klimawandel innerhalb der heterogenen Stadtstrukturen räumlich sehr unterschiedlich aus. Dies liegt vor allem an den groß- wie kleinräumig verschiedenen biometeorologischen Bedingungen, die innerhalb einer Stadt wirken. Die sich so in Städten bildenden Hitzeinseln gefährden durch die im Vergleich zum Umland bis zu vier bis fünf Kelvin höheren Temperaturen die Gesundheit der Bevölkerung. Neben der erhöhten Sterblichkeit kommt es zur Einschränkung der Arbeitsproduktivität, die wir wirtschaftlich gar nicht beziffern können. Dreiviertel der Europäer leben in Städten – planerische Maßnahmen, um Hitzestress zu vermeiden, werden somit mehr und mehr gebraucht, um eine Entlastung der Bevölkerung zu erwirken und die Risiken und Gefahren einzugrenzen. Hierbei sind Städte wie beispielsweise Berlin gefragt, sich mit ihrer individuellen Betroffenheit auseinanderzusetzen. In Deutschland werden zahlreiche Gesetze, Richtlinien und Programme zum Klimawandel verabschiedet. Ob diese rechtlichen und organisatorischen Instrumente in der Praxis verwendet werden und in welchem Umfang, wurde hier untersucht. Zahlreiche Veröffentlichungen zu den Folgen als auch der Anpassung an den Klimawandel mit Hilfe von Planungsinstrumenten wurden publiziert. Ob die von den Städten verabschiedeten raumspezifischen Planungen insbesondere in Bezug auf das Instrumentarium der Landschafts-, Umwelt- und Stadtplanung diesen Erkenntnissen gerecht werden, ist jedoch unklar und lag deshalb, im Rahmen des DFG Forschungsprojektes 1736 Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change (UCaHS), im Fokus dieser Arbeit. Es stellt sich die Frage, in welcher Weise deutsche Städte Anpassungsmaßnahmen in Bezug auf den urbanen Hitzestress implementiert haben. In einer Analyse mittels eines Kriterienkataloges wurden alle Anpassungspläne aus Städten ausgewertet, welche entweder Landeshauptstädte oder Städte mit über 200.000 Einwohnern und einer Bevölkerungsdichte ab 2.000 Einwohner pro km² sind. Die untersuchten Städte zeigten einen klaren Trend für Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz, gegenüber Maßnahmen zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Bei den Anpassungsmaßnahmen zeichnete sich eine klare Tendenz zu so genannten No-Regret-Maßnahmen ab, wie beispielsweise Entsiegelung oder die Pflanzung von Gehölzen, die unabhängig vom Klimawandel ökonomisch, ökologisch und sozial auch auf lange Sicht sinnvoll sind. Im nächsten Schritt wurde der Stadtentwicklungsplan Klima von Berlin (StEP Klima) näher analysiert. An seinem Beispiel wurde die Rolle von Anpassungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel in den einzelnen Planungsebenen analysiert. Sowohl zur Analyse des Stadtentwicklungsplans Klima (StEP Klima) als auch zur Entwicklung von drei Szenarien wurde der Ansatz der Konstellationsanalyse verwendet. Die Konstellationsanalyse dient als interdisziplinäres Brückenkonzept, welches die Akteure (Personen und Gruppe etc.), Symbole (Gesetze und Leitfäden etc.), technische (Erhöhung des Albedo Wertes, Fassaden- und Dachbegrünung etc.) und natürliche Elemente (Klima und Hitzestress etc.) analytisch erfasst und in Beziehung zueinander setzt. Die Konstellationsanalyse besteht aus Beziehungen und Wechselbeziehungen zwischen den Elementen der Konstellation. Die für die Konstellationsanalyse erforderlichen Interviews zeigten, dass in Berlin noch keine hinreichenden Verbindungen zwischen den relevanten Akteuren, Instrumenten und Kontexten wie beispielsweise ein Wissensaustausch zwischen dem Senat und den Berliner Bezirken vorhanden ist. Anders als bei den formellen Instrumenten, wie dem Bebauungsplan, beinhaltet der informelle StEP Klima umfassende Maßnahmen, um auf die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zu reagieren. Problematisch ist jedoch, dass der Plan kaum bis keine Beachtung findet und so immer noch keine Anpassung an den urbanen Hitzestress in Berlin stattfindet. Im Rahmen der Interviews zeigte sich, dass die Bebauungsplanung als die Relevanteste angesehen wird, um Maßnahmen zur Anpassung verbindlich umzusetzen. In einem weiteren Schritt, in Zusammenarbeit mit den Research Modulen 3.2 und 5.1 des UCaHS Projektes, wurden mit Hilfe der Konstellationsanalyse drei Szenarien erstellt. 1. Ein Szenario mit wenig politischer Aufmerksamkeit auf den urbanen Hitzestress und die Initiierung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen. 2. Ein Szenario mit Fokus auf die Innenentwicklung und der Implementierung der vorgeschlagenen Anpassungsmaßnahmen aus dem Stadtentwicklungsplan Klima. 3. Ein Szenario mit politischen Bestrebungen, Anpassungsmaßnahmen gegen den urbanen Hitzestress in der gesamten Stadt mit Hilfe des Stadtentwicklungsplans Klima umzusetzen. Hierbei war es das Ziel, politische Handlungsstränge zu entwickeln, wie beispielsweise eine gesetzliche Verpflichtung die Maßnahmen des StEP Klima umzusetzen, um so mögliche Wege aufzuzeigen, mit städtischen Hitzerisiken umzugehen. Die Ebene des Bebauungsplans wurde in den vorherigen Schritten als die für die Implementierung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen relevanteste gesehen. Hier stellt sich die Frage, ob diese Anpassungskonzepte des StEP Klima tatsächlich auf der Ebene der Bauleitplanung Eingang finden? Um die Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeiten für einen klimaangepassten Bebauungsplan oder auch die Umsetzung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen zu ermitteln, wurde die Methodik des Bayesschen Netzwerkes verwendet. Darunter sind Wahrscheinlichkeitsnetzwerke zu verstehen, die Ausgangssysteme, wie die Erstellung eines Bebauungsplanes, analytisch abbilden und Wahrscheinlichkeiten für die Erreichung gesetzter Ziele, der Umsetzung der Anpassungsmaßnahmen des StEP Klima, abzubilden helfen. Um die Tendenzen für die Umsetzung zu ermitteln, wurden zahlreiche halbstrukturierte Interviews mit allen am Bebauungsplanverfahren beteiligten Akteuren durchgeführt. Bei der Analyse zeichnete sich ab, dass die Chance Anpassungsmaßnahmen, wie beispielsweise die Fassadenbegrünung, zu implementieren von einer Kombination aus verschiedenen Faktoren abhängig ist: Dazu zählen sowohl das Vorhandensein eines Investors der ein Bauvorhaben umsetzen möchte, die oft situativ und im Einzelfall personengebundenen Entscheidungen der Planbearbeiter, der Öffentlichkeitsbeteiligung als auch das Vorhandensein eines Umweltberichtes. Die Öffentlichkeit kann politischen Druck auf die Entscheidungsträger ausüben und verweist auf eventuelle Defizite. Der Umweltbericht bildet die Grundlage für die naturschutzfachliche Einschätzung des Gebietes. Auch können in diesem Klimamaßnahmen verankert werden. Eine Barriere für Anpassungsmaßnahmen stellt laut den Interviews der §13a des Baugesetzbuches dar. Dieser hat dazu geführt, dass gesetzeskonform weniger Umweltprüfungen in der Innenstadt Berlins durchgeführt wurden. §13a BauGB soll eine Erleichterung von Planungsvorhaben für die Innenentwicklung der Städte sein. Wenn § 13a greift, muss kein Umweltbericht erstellt werden. Für einen klimawandelangepassten Bebauungsplan muss dieser Paragraph bei der Novellierung des BauGB entsprechend geändert werden. Jedoch wird ein klimaangepasster Bebauungsplan nicht allein durch das Vorhandensein der Vorgaben im Baugesetzbuch erstellt, sondern bedarf wacher Akteure in den Planungsebenen als auch in der Bevölkerung. Bisher spielt die Anpassung an den Klimawandel in den formalen Instrumenten und Abläufen der Umwelt-, Stadt- und Regionalplanung in Berlin keine große Rolle, obwohl der informelle Stadtentwicklungsplan Klima (StEP Klima) viele umfassende Strategien zur Bewältigung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels enthält. Es zeigen sich allerdings Fortschritte in der Entwicklung von informellen Plänen, wie das Beispiel des Stadtentwicklungsplans Klima KONKRET (StEP Klima KONKRET) aus dem Sommer 2016 belegt. Dieser gibt erstmals Handlungshinweise wie eine Umsetzung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen konkret an einem Beispiel erfolgen kann. Ebenso ist die Fortführung von Planungshinweiskarten zum Thema Umweltgerechtigkeit und Klima als Fortschritt in diese Richtung zu werten. Aber noch stehen die Bemühungen, die Anpassungen an den Klimawandel umzusetzen, in den Kinderschuhen. Um die Anpassung an den Klimawandel auf allen Ebenen umzusetzen, muss diese verbindlich werden. Das Energiewendegesetz, die Novellierung des Landschaftsprogramms im Sommer 2016 oder die geplante Verabschiedung des Berliner Energie- und Klimaschutzprogramms (BEK) die zumindest behördenverbindlich sind, zeigen, welche Rolle die Anpassung in Berlin an den urbanen Hitzestress zukünftig in Berlin der Hauptstadt Deutschlands einnehmen wird. ; DFG, FOR 1736, Stadtklima und Hitzestress in Städten der Mittelbreiten in Anbetracht des Klimawandels (UCaHS)

A main reason for founding the European Union was to remove internal trade obstacles and to establish a Single Market within its borders. Along with the increasing integration of international markets, an ever-increasing diversification of firms in tandem with the development of multinational enterprises is observable. Legislative authorities of the European Union and its member states are faced with the challenge of ensuring that their corporate tax systems keep pace with this economic transformation of companies and markets. Hence, in order to meet the requirements of an integrated European market, in 2001 the European Commission proposed a switch from Separate Accounting to Formula Apportionment as the leading corporate income taxation system in the European Union. Basically, corporate income of multinational enterprises can be taxed according to these two different principles. At present Separate Accounting is applied at the international level, while some countries like the U.S., Canada, Germany and Switzerland use Formula Apportionment at the state or federal level. Under the current system of Separate Accounting each subsidiary of a multinational enterprise is treated as a separate entity subject to national tax law. For this reason multinationals have to value their intra-firm trade using internal transfer prices, which should meet an external standard of comparison, so-called arm's length prices. Because of the very nature of internal trade with firm-specific tangibles and intangibles evaluating adequate transfer prices proved difficult. Consequently, Separate Accounting was identified as one reason for manipulations in favor of profit shifting for tax saving purposes. That is why the European Commission regards the consolidation of profits including cross-border loss offset for calculating a multinational company's tax base as a more suitable approach in the economic union and advocates the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB). To allocate the consolidated tax base to the taxing countries a splitting mechanism is needed. Hence, the CCCTB proposal includes a system of Formula Apportionment. A formula apportions a share of the overall tax base depending on the multinational enterprise's geographical economic activity in the respective country. The European Commission favors a common three-factor apportionment formula containing assets, labor and sales to represent the production and consumption side. The European Commission's proposal has initiated a continuing politico-economic discussion about the efficiency and distributional consequences of the transition to Formula Apportionment in Europe. This doctoral thesis evaluates particular issues within this debate by presenting three theoretical articles to answer specific research questions. The articles are based on the methodological concept of a Nash tax competition model under perfect symmetry, where countries choose their corporate tax rates non-cooperatively. The non-cooperative behavior of one country may impose fiscal externalities on other countries and thereby renders the tax policy inefficient. This dissertation focuses on the derivation, explanation and interpretation of the resulting inefficiencies under Separate Accounting and Formula Apportionment. For this reason it contributes three papers to the theoretical literature of optimal tax policies in a non-cooperative equilibrium of tax rates. The work aims to compare and discuss the alternative policy options. The first article pertains to the public debate about the right taxation principle to apply in Europe. The article investigates the effect of fiscal equalization on the efficiency properties of corporate income tax rates chosen under the taxation principles of Separate Accounting and Formula Apportionment. Fiscal equalization ensures efficiency if the marginal transfer just reflects the fiscal and pecuniary externalities of tax rates. In contrast to previous studies, tax base equalization (Representative Tax System) does not satisfy this condition, but combining tax revenue and private income equalization does, regardless of which taxation principle is implemented. This finding implies that it does not matter whether MNEs are taxed according to Separate Accounting or Formula Apportionment if there is equalization of national income (i.e. private income plus tax revenues). Under Formula Apportionment, tax base equalization is superior to tax revenue equalization if the wage income externality is sufficiently large. Even though the European Union does not have an explicit equalization system, a part of the Unions's budget is financed by contributions from the member states. The implied income redistribution would indeed not be enough to ensure efficiency of corporate income taxation, since the budget is not an equalization system in the sense of our analysis. But the very existence of income redistribution in Europe might indicate that reforming the member states' contributions to the budget in a suitable way may politically be easier to achieve than replacing an implemented corporate tax system. The second article refers to the sales factor in the proposed three-factor formula under Formula Apportionment. The incorporation of a sales factor in the formula as well as the assignment of sales at the place of origin or destination are hotly debated issues. The CCCTB Working Group suggested in 2007 the inclusion of sales following the destination principle but also mentioned that ".most member states experts that would support the inclusion of sales as a factor would prefer sales measured 'at origin' ". With regard to the most recent proposal by the European Commission in 2011, the European Parliament advocated that the sales weight be lowered to 10%. The Committee of the Internal Market and Consumer Protection even called for the removal of the sales factor. In contrast, from Canada and the United States, the opposite development has been observed, namely the increasing importance of the sales factor. Taking a two-country Nash tax competition model with a sales-only formula and market power, we investigate (i) whether the transition from Separate Accounting to Formula Apportionment mitigates tax competition and improves welfare and (ii) whether tax competition is weakest when sales are measured with the origin principle. The driving force is a negative consumption externality that hampers the positive formula externality present for both the origin and destination principle. The third paper investigates the Commission's recommendation to implement a transition process to Formula Apportionment. During the change Formula Apportionment should be optional for multinational enterprises. Recent empirical literature proves that profit consolidation reduces multinational enterprises' involuntary costs for complying with different tax laws, but increases discretionary compliance costs incurred by tax planning activities. That is why the third article considers a two-country model with multinationals that are heterogeneous with respect to their involuntary compliance costs. Additionally, multinational enterprises using the Formula Apportionment system face higher discretionary compliance costs due to restricted tax base manipulation opportunities. Hence, multinational enterprises would prefer to be taxed under Formula Apportionment if and only if under Separate Accounting the involuntary compliance costs exceed the tax advantage due to better profit shifting possibilities. We show that a non-negative threshold value of involuntary compliance costs exists such that multinationals with costs above this level choose Formula Apportionment. We prove in a symmetric setting that starting from a pure Separate Accounting system with national revenue maximization, a transition from Separate Accounting to an optional Formula Apportionment increases the non-cooperative tax rates and national revenues for both countries ending up with the results of pure Formula Apportionment. This is because with identical tax rates the multinational enterprise cannot benefit from the better profit shifting opportunities under Separate Accounting but saves involuntary compliance costs. In our analysis the optional system of tax base consolidation promises an efficiency enhancement for the member countries. Hence, we deliver an additional argument in support of an international agreement on the CCCTB proposal. ; Einer der Hauptgründe für die Entstehung der Europäischen Union (EU) war das Ziel, interne Handelshemmnisse zu beseitigen, um innerhalb der Unionsgrenzen einen gemeinsamen Markt zu etablieren. Parallel zur zunehmenden Integration der internationalen Märkte ist eine vermehrte Diversifikation von Unternehmen zu beobachten, welche durch die Entstehung multinationaler Konzerne begleitet wird. Für die Gesetzgeber der EU und ihrer Mitgliedsstaaten bedeutet dies, ihre Körperschaftsteuersysteme laufend an diesen Transformationprozess anzupassen. Um dabei den Anforderungen des EU-Binnenmarktes gerecht zu werden, erachtet die Europäische Kommission eine umfassende Reform der Körperschaftsbesteuerung als notwendig. Im Jahr 2001 schlug die Kommission deshalb vor, für multinationale Unternehmen das Unternehmensteuersystem der separaten Gewinnbesteuerung durch eine formelbasierte Gewinnbesteuerung abzulösen. Aktuell wird die separate Gewinnbesteuerung vorwiegend auf der internationalen Ebene verwendet, während einige Länder wie die USA, Kanada, Deutschland und die Schweiz die Formelbesteuerung innerhalb ihrer förderalen Strukturen nutzen. Bei der separaten Gewinnbesteuerung wird jede Konzerntochter als eigenständiges Unternehmen behandelt, das der nationalen Steuergesetzgebung unterliegt. Der Wert des Zwischenhandels innerhalb der Unternehmensgruppe wird mit Hilfe von Transferpreisen ermittelt. Dabei sollen die firmeninternen Transferpreise dem sogenannten arm's-length-Prinzip folgen, so dass sie den Einkauf des Produktes oder der Leistung von einem Drittanbieter widerspiegeln. Es hat sich jedoch in der Praxis gezeigt, dass es sich bei den unternehmensintern gehandelten Gütern und Dienstleistungen oft um firmenspezifische Produkte handelt, für die kein externer Vergleichsmaßstab existiert und die Ermittlung und Kontrolle angemessener Transferpreise erschwert. Dies führt zu einer Manipulationsanfälligkeit bei dem Prinzip der separaten Gewinnbesteuerung, welche als eine Ursache für die internationale Gewinnverlagerung zum Zwecke der Steuervermeidung gesehen wird. Daher betrachtet die Kommission die Gewinnkonsolidierung einschließlich der grenzüberschreitenden Verlustverrechnung zur Bestimmung der Steuerbemessungsgrundlage eines multinationalen Unternehmens als geeigneteren Ansatz für den EU-Binnenmarkt. Sie schlägt dafür die Einführung der Gemeinsamen konsolidierten Körperschaftsteuer-Bemessungsgrundlage (GKKB) vor. Für die Aufteilung der GKKB auf die einzelnen steuerberechtigen Länder enthält der Vorschlag die formelbasierte Gewinnaufteilung. Eine EU-weit gültige Aufteilungsformel ordnet dabei die Steuerbemessungsgrundlage, gemäß der geschäftlichen Aktivität des multinationalen Unternehmens in jedem Land, den Mitgliedsstaaten zu. Die Kommission will mit Hilfe der Formelfaktoren sowohl Produktion als auch Konsum angemessen abbilden und favorisiert die drei gleich gewicheteten Faktoren Vermögenswerte, Arbeit und Umsatz. Der Vorschlag einer GKKB hat eine andauernde polit-ökonomische Debatte über die Effizienzwirkungen und die Verteilungsaspekte eines Übergangs zur formelbasierten Gewinnbesteuerung in Europa ausgelöst. Die vorliegende Doktorarbeit setzt sich mit speziellen Themen dieser Debatte auseinander. Dazu wurden drei Aufsätze entwickelt, die spezifische Forschungsfragen beantworten und sich in die theoretische Literatur der optimalen Steuerpolitik in einem unkooperativen Steuersatzgleichgewicht einordnen lassen. Die Artikel basieren auf dem methodischen Konzept eines Nash-Steuerwettbewerbsmodells bei vollständiger Symmetrie, wobei den Ländern die Souveränität über die Körperschaftsteuersätze obliegt. Da die einzelnen Staaten die Auswirkungen Ihrer Steuerpolitik auf die anderen Mitgliedsstaaten ignorieren, kann ihr Verhalten fiskalische Externalitätten auslösen, welche eine ineffiziente Steuersatzwahl kennzeichnen. Der Fokus der Papiere liegt auf der Ableitung, Erklärung und Interpretation der sich aus dem Steuerwettbewerb ergebenden Ineffizienzen unter der separaten und der formelbasierten Gewinnbesteuerung. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, die verschiedenen Politikalternativen dahingehend zu vergleichen und zu diskutieren. Der erste Artikel bezieht sich auf die Diskussion über das "bessere" Körperschaftsteuersystem für Europa. Das Papier untersucht den Effekt eines Finanzausgleichsystems auf die Effizienzeigenschaften der Körperschaftsteuersätze, die unter dem Prinzip der separaten Gewinnbesteuerung bzw. der Formelbesteuerung gewählt werden. Ein Finanzausgleich sichert dann Effizienz, wenn der marginale Transfer die fiskalischen und pekuniären Externalitäten der Steuersätze widerspiegelt. Im Unterschied zu vorherigen Arbeiten erfüllt in unserem Modell der Steuerbasisausgleich diese Bedingung nicht. Stattdessen führt ein Ausgleich der Nationaleinkommen, das heißt der Kombination aus einem Ausgleich von Steueraufkommen und privatem Einkommen, unabhängig vom verwendeten Steuerprinzip zu Effizienz. Dieses Ergebnis weist darauf hin, dass es irrelevant ist, ob multinationale Unternehmen der separaten oder der formelbasierten Gewinnbesteuerung unterliegen, wenn parallel ein Finanzausgleichssystem der Nationaleinkommen existiert. Bei der Formelbesteuerung könnte der Steuerbasisausgleich zu effizienteren Ergebnissen als der Steueraufkommensausgleich führen, wenn die Lohneinkommensexternalität ausreichend groß ist. Obwohl in der EU kein explizites Finanzausgleichssystem exisitiert, das im Sinne unserer Analyse angelegt ist, wird ein Teil des EU-Budgets durch die Beiträge der einzelnen Mitgliedsstaaten finanziert. Die damit verbundene Einkommensumverteilung reicht zwar nicht zur Sicherstellung effizienter Körperschaftsteuersätze aus, jedoch könnte die Erweiterung eines bereits vorhandenen Systems durch die entsprechende Anpassung der Beiträge zum EU-Budget politisch leichter durchsetzbar sein als die vollständige Reform des Körperschaftsteuersystems. Der zweite Artikel beschäftigt sich mit dem Umsatzfaktor in der Aufteilungsformel. Die Aufnahme eines Umsatzfaktor als solches sowie die Frage, ob Umsätze dem Ursprungsland oder dem Bestimmungsland zugeschlagen werden, werden innerhalb der EU kontrovers diskutiert. Die GKKB-Arbeitsgruppe schlug im Jahr 2007 die Aufnahme der Umsätze nach dem Bestimmungslandprinzip vor, erwähnte aber gleichzeitig, dass eine Mehrzahl der Experten der Mitgliedsstaaten die Einbeziehung der Umsätze nach dem Ursprungslandprinzip bevorzugen würde. Zum Vorschlag der Europäischen Kommission zu diesem Thema aus dem Jahr 2011 wandte das Europäische Parlament ein, dass es die Gewichtung des Umsatzfaktors auf 10% absenken würde. Der Ausschuss für den Binnenmarkt und Verbraucherschutz forderte sogar die vollständige Streichung des Umsatzfaktors in der Formel. Im Gegensatz zu diesen Forderungen stehen die Entwicklungen in Kanada und den USA, wo der Umsatzfaktor immer mehr an Bedeutung gewinnt. Wir zeigen in einem Nash-Steuerwettbewerbsmodell mit zwei Ländern, Marktmacht und einer umsatzbasierten Aufteilungsformel, dass (i) der Übergang von der separaten zur formelbasierten Gewinnbesteuerung den Steuerwettbewerb abschwächt und dieWohlfahrt erhöht und (ii) mit einem Umsatzfaktor nach dem Ursprungslandprinzip der geringste Steuerwettbewerb auftritt. Das zweite Ergebnis ist auf eine negative Konsumexternalität zurückzuführen, welche der sowohl beim Ursprungsland- als auch beim Bestimmungslandprinzip auftretenden positiven Formelexternalität entgegenwirkt. Das dritte Papier untersucht den Kommissionsvorschlag, eine Übergangsphase von der separaten zur formelbasierten Gewinnbesteuerung zu schaffen. Während dieser Phase soll die Formelbesteuerung den Unternehmen optional zur Verfügung stehen. Die empirische Literatur zeigt, dass sich durch die Gewinnkonsolidierung die unfreiwilligen Befolgungskosten, die ein multinationales Unternehmens aufbringen muss, um die nationalen steuergesetzlichen Vorgaben zu erfüllen, verringern. Auf der anderen Seite steigen die diskretionären Kosten für Maßnahmen des Unternehmens, die der Gewinnverlagerung dienen. Der dritte Artikel bildet diese Erkenntnisse in einem Zwei-Länder-Modell ab, in welchem sich die multinationalen Unternehmen in der Höhe ihrer unfreiwilligen Befolgungskosten unterscheiden. Zusätzlich sehen sich Unternehmen, die die Formelbesteuerung nutzen, höheren diskretionären Kosten gegenüber, weil hier die Möglichkeiten zur Manipulation der Steuerbemessungsgrundlage deutlich eingeschränkt sind. Folglich werden nur die Unternehmen für die Formelbesteuerung votieren, bei denen unter der separaten Gewinnbesteuerung die unfreiwilligen Befolgungskosten den Steuervorteil durch die leichtere Gewinnverlagerung übersteigen. Wir leiten einen nicht negativen Schwellenwert der unfreiwilligen Befolgungskosten ab, ab welchem sich Unternehmen mit höheren Kosten für die Formelbesteuerung entscheiden. Unter Annahme von Symmetrie zeigen wir, dass, ausgehend von einem System mit separater Gewinnbesteuerung und nationaler Steueraufkommensmaximierung, eine optionale formelbasierte Gewinnbesteuerung die unkooperativ gewählten Steuersätze und das nationale Steueraufkommen für beide Länder erhöht. Basierend auf den Modellannahmen wird sogar das Niveau der ausschließlichen Formelbesteuerung erreicht, da bei gleichen Steuersätzen der Vorteil der besseren Gewinnverschiebungsmöglichkeiten irrelevant wird und nur die Ersparnis der unfreiwilligen Befolgungskosten als Entscheidungskriterium wirkt. In unserer Analyse führt die Optionalität der GKKB zu einer Effizientverbesserung in den beteiligten Ländern. Somit können wir ein Argument für die Vorteilhaftigkeit des GKKB-Vorschlags innerhalb der EU beitragen. ; DFG, RU 1466/1, Alternative Systeme zur Besteuerung multinationaler Unternehmen in Europa

[spa] El siguiente trabajo toma como tema principal la inclusión de los recolectores informales en sistemas de gestión formal de residuos sólidos municipales (RSM). Los RSM son un elemento presente desde los primeros asentamientos del hombre, pero los problemas de exclusión se han ido desarrollando conforme ha ido pasando el tiempo y el progreso. Pasado, presente y futuro, tres espacios temporales distantes y a la vez unidos, espacios donde los actos humanos del pasado muestran sus efectos en el día de hoy y donde la única forma de mejorar el futuro es trabajar en el presente aprendiendo del pasado. Dada la complejidad del cuestionamiento, hemos basado nuestro estudio en casos exitosos de modelos de gestión de RSM inclusivos, comenzando un recorrido bibliográfico que nos permitiera abordar de la mejor forma nuestro planteamiento. Con ello, posteriormente hemos comenzado por estudiar el caso de Pune (India). La investigación de primera mano se centra en 3 casos europeos: Traperos de Emaús en Navarra, Engrunes en Cataluña y Amelior en Francia. Los casos son diferentes en sí, pero los une su origen: todos ellos resultaron de la respuesta por parte de vecinos ante un problema o caso de injusticia social. Además, poseen en común que sus usuarios son personas que se dedican a la recolección informal de RSM. Emaús nace en Francia y luego se ha replicado en todo el mundo. Lo cierto es que las comunidades de Emaús nacen generalmente como una respuesta ante la situación de injusticia que sufren personas excluidas. Su forma de vida es la comunidad, escuela personal y colectiva. Su ámbito de trabajo es el espacio liberado en resistencia. En sus orígenes los traperos han utilizado la recolección informal como un evento económico. Sólo el paso del tiempo y las relaciones con otros organismos los han llevado a madurar e internalizar la labor medioambiental que desarrollan. Al día de hoy continúan trabajando con los RSM, ya no de forma precaria ni informal, y con su experiencia han sabido ganar el espacio y ser incluidos en el sistema formal de gestión de RSM. Engrunes es un poco más joven. También nació como respuesta ante la precariedad en que vivían personas del barrio que se dedicaban a la recolección informal como un medio de subsistencia económica. Una respuesta que vino de los feligreses de la parroquia Sant Mateu de Esplugues de Llobregat para ir en su ayuda. Un comienzo similar al de Emaús, con una comunidad y una organización lineal que, con el tiempo va a evolucionar y pasar a constituirse como empresa de reinserción. Con ello, dejaron atrás la vida comunitaria y adquirieron una figura empresarial, pasando a formar parte de la red de Empresas de reinserción del gobierno catalán. Desde este momento sus usuarios llegan procedentes de los programas y servicios de inserción de la administración pública y por un período de tiempo limitado. La recogida de RSM pasó desde la informal con el carrito por las calles y comercio del barrio, a camiones y furgonetas para la recogida dentro del sistema formal, y su herramienta de trabajo contra la exclusión es ahora el contrato de trabajo. Amelior es una asociación nacida hace pocos años en Montreuil y con un ámbito de trabajo que no se centra en la recolección de RSM, sino que lo hace en los recolectores de objetos o biffins. Nace como respuesta ante una situación de injusticia. Esta vez es la escalada de la represión con que el gobierno local trata a los biffins, casi llegando al límite de una verdadera expulsión de los lugares tradicionales donde desarrollaban sus mercadillos de segunda mano. El trabajo de Amelior es encontrar espacios donde puedan establecer sus mercados sin temor de su propia integridad o de sus productos. En su corta vida, han logrado conseguir la plaza del metro Croix de Chavaux como espacio donde, una vez al mes los biffins puedan montar su mercado, siempre organizados y coordinados por Amelior. La situación de los recolectores informales es real, no solo en los países pobres, sino que está presente en todo el mundo. Ahora bien, es un problema que en países como España no está del todo asimilado ni tampoco las autoridades dedican planes para su inclusión, de aquí que determinados ciudadanos se organicen y busquen por ellos mismos sus propios canales para ayudar, organizar, capacitar y lograr modelos inclusivos con los cuales poder luchar contra le exclusión. En Francia, el gobierno ha ido cediendo a la presión de otorgar espacios, quizás como forma de controlar a los biffins y evitar el mercado en zonas de interés gubernamental, como las zonas turísticas de Paris. Nuestro estudio logró demostrar que modelos inclusivos de gestión de RSM orientados al Zero Waste son aplicables en diferentes escenarios, por diferentes que sean. En cuanto a la prevención de residuos, los recolectores informales contribuyen a la economía solidaria, especialmente al convertir desechos en productos de segunda mano accesibles para personas de bajo poder adquisitivo o que rechazan la economía de consumo. Paralelo a ello, los modelos inclusivos generan trabajo regulado y, con ello contribuyen a mejorar la calidad de vida de los recolectores dignificando sus vidas. La sola recuperación de desechos o material para el reciclaje contribuya a su vez a la disminución de la cantidad de RSM que debe ser llevado a depósito controlado. Finalmente decir que se ha demostrado que un modelo de gestión híbrido, en el sentido de ocupar a personas en exclusión como parte del sistema formal contribuye a mejorar el sistema de recogida, dada la experiencia en recogida selectiva de éstos. Se ha visto que la hoja de ruta no es fácil ni corta, pero los modelos inclusivos llevan a mejorar tanto aspectos sociales como medio ambientales. No se pueden generar cambios al corto plazo, pero tampoco se puede esperar ver cambios sin comenzar un camino de trabajo. ; [eng] This work carry out a research taking as central issue the inclusion of the informal waste collectors (waste pickers) into formal waste management systems. The MSW have been present since the first settlements of the humanity, but social and exclusions problems have been developing in the hand of time and progress. Past, present and future, three distant dimensions in time and united too. Temporary spaces where human acts in the past present effects in the present and where the only way to improve the future is work from the present, studing the past. Given the complexity of, a priori, the question, we have based our research in successful cases of inclusive MSW management systems (MSM). The first step was a bibliographic research that allow us to take a correct approach. Then, we begun to study the case of Pune (India). The first-hand research focuses on 3 European cases: Traperos de Emmaus in Navarra, Engrunes in Catalonia and Amelior in Montreuil, France. The cases are different in themselves, but they are linked by their origin: all of them were born like a response by neighbors to make front a problem or a social injustice case. In addition, they have in common that their users are people engaged into the informal collection of MSW. Emaus was born in France and then has been replicated around all the world. The Emaus communities was born like a response to the situation of injustice suffered by excluded people. Their way of life is community, personal and collective school. Some Emaus ragpickers say: "our ambit of work is a space released in resistance". In its origins, the ragpickers have used informal waste pickering just as an economic event. Only the pass of time and relations with other organisms made possible a maturation and internalizing of they work like a utility work to the society and environment. Actually, they continue to work with the MSW, but no longer in a precarious or informal way, and with their experience they have been able to gain space and be included in the formal MSW management system. Engrunes is a little younger. It was also born as a response to the precariousness of homeless living in the neighborhood and were engaged in informal recollection as a means of economic subsistence. A reaction that came from a little group of people of the Sant Mateu church from Esplugues de Llobregat to help them. A similar begin that Emaus, with a community and a linear organization that, over time, will evolve and become into a reinsertion enterprise. With this step, they left behind the community life and acquired an enterprise figure, becoming part of the Insertion enterprises network the Catalan government. From this moment, its users arrive by just one way: programs and insertion services of the public administration, and that's is not all, it's just for a limited time. The waste collection went from the informal with the typical cart, to trucks and vans for collection inside the formal system. Actually, the tool to work against the exclusion is the contract of employment. Amelior is an association born a few years ago in Montreuil. Their work that not focus on the collection of MSW, their works is focalized with the waste pickers (biffins) rights. The association, like Emaús and Engrunes, was born as a reaction front an injustice situation. In this case, the reactions were produced by the increment in repression and persecution by the government of Paris against the biffins. Situations like the prohibition to use traditional places for its market and, in the last times with the expulsion to the periphery areas of Paris. Amelior's task can be resumed in one objective: find spaces where they can establish their markets without fear for their own integrity or of their products. In their short life they have achieved, by a public bidding, the use of the Croix de Chavaux square as a market space one time by month. The situation of the excluded people, like waste pickers, is real. And is not present just in poor countries, they are present around the world. However, it is a problem that in countries like Spain is not fully assimilated for the authorities, or the govern don't dedicate plans for their inclusion. This situation make that some citizens organize themselves and search how they can help to organize, capacity and arrive to legal and accepted models to combat exclusion. In France, the government has been opening to listening the demands, maybe to the pressure, to grant spaces, maybe just a way to control the biffins and avoid the market in areas of governmental interest, read touristic interests, of Paris. Our study was able to demonstrate that Zero Waste models of MSW management are applicable in different scenarios, even if they have some differences into waste prevention theme, informal collectors contribute to the solidarity economy, especially by converting some products discarded and dumped by somewhere, into second-hand products accessible for another people with low purchasing power, or people who reject the consumer economy. In parallel, the inclusive models generate regulated work and, with this, contribute to improve the quality of life of the waste pickers, dignifying their lives. At the same time, the simple action to recovery for the waste or material for recycling, contributes to the decrease of the amount of MSW that must be taken to transported and dumped in a landfill. Finally, we have been demonstrated that, a hybrid management model, in the sense of occupying exclusion people as part, or inside the formal management system contributes to improve the waste collection system, given their experience in the selective collection based in the recuperation of quality products from the waste. We have been seen that the road map is not easy nor short, but the inclusive models lead to social and environmental improvement. It's impossible generate changes in the short term, but also cannot see changes if we don't start a working plan.

Movement has been part of human history; it is and has been integrated inside every human, becoming active as a result of various factors which at a moment are more or less dominant in one's life. It is like a code written down in everyone's DNA, making humans unable or better said "hungry" to be free and always look for better. Starting in March 2010, the Arab Spring opened a door for the biggest migration flow in modern history. Such as conflicts were crossing borders from one state to another in the fight for democracy and freedom from regimes, as domino effect migration did the same. Numbers increased every day and during 2015, in time of Syrian crisis, we were witnessing a mayor migration flow to Europe since the European colonization and the Transatlantic Slave Trade. Mentioning the theory of push and pull factors as a starting point, although it has been used to explain the everyday movement of people, victims of human trafficking, towards rich countries which at the end become their countries of destination in the labyrinth of exploitation, lured by stories of well-paid jobs and good life, it can also be discussed in the context of migration movements during the 2015 and the beginning of 2016. Pushed by terror and war and pulled by the possibilities for a better life, a chance to stay alive, hundreds of thousands of people have fled their countries of origin and moving through the Balkan migration route are already inside or in front of the European Union's doors. Moving through Turkey, Greece, Macedonia, Serbia to Croatia, Slovenia, Austria or Germany; or to Hungary, Austria, Germany or Sweden (or other EU member country), some of them managed to get at the end of their destination, some of them were smuggled, some trafficked, unfortunately some ended their journeys among the waves of the Mediterranean Sea or some stayed into metal fences "hugs". During this global movement with so wide framework, several categories of people were put in the same basket, not even making an effort to draw a line between migrants and refugees. And it was the first important step for additional solutions. Instead of being practical, EU became an ignorant and selfish entity, lost in its quarrels between member states. Some started opening their borders wide, not thinking of tomorrow and others started building fences, locking up people and feeding them in a way even animals should not be fed. Was this the Union which arose from the ashes of the bloodiest war in human history? Or every atom of humanity was lost in the games of political intrigues and different interests? The protection of refugees has many aspects. It includes safety from being returned to the dangers they have fled; access to asylum procedures that are fair and efficient; and measures to ensure that their basic human rights are respected to allow them to live in dignity and safety while helping them to find a longer-term solution. States bear the primary responsibility for this protection. UNHCR therefore works closely with governments, advising and supporting them as needed to implement their responsibilities. (UNHCR, 2016) Migrants choose to move not because of a direct threat of persecution or death, but mainly to improve their lives by finding work, or in some cases for education, family reunion, or other reasons. Unlike refugees who cannot safely return home, migrants face no such impediment to return. If they choose to return home, they will continue to receive the protection of their government. For individual governments, this distinction is important. Countries deal with migrants under their own immigration laws and processes, but countries deal with refugees through norms of refugee protection and asylum that are defined in both national legislation and international law. (UNHCR, 2016) Starting with Lombroso's homo criminalis where immigrants were part of the analyzed possible criminals, through the Chicago School, whose conclusions were that foreigners have powerful criminal tendencies, immigration has always been connected to crime, trying to divide societies into "us' and "them", leave newcomers at the margins, exclude them and if possible, try to push them away. And today, the word immigrant, although being a bit wide (all foreigners with no importance of their ethnic, social, economic or professional background), always is narrowed into a direction in which it points out to those non - citizens who are not white, are poor, have no working skills, are coming from non - developed or developing countries, they will just steal our jobs or will be begging on the streets, and in worst cases will bring diseases etc. It is a picture of threatening asylum seekers, Muslim terrorists, Balkan "barbarians", criminal immigrants who will only destroy what we have worked for centuries. (Stanojoska, 2016) It is a modern fear wrapped in classical paper, that fear from strangers explained through sociological perspectives or as Garland (2001) says that all those others are endangering what we have and that our society should protect itself from their "vicious" attacks, rather than to think what to do afterwards in the need to rehabilitate everything they'll destroy. It starts with Durkheim's theory of anomie and his opinion of strengthening bonds and solidarity among individuals in the society and ends with Merton's strain theory. Namely, in his works, Emilie Durkheim speaks about punishment seen as an element or mechanism which helps into building and maintaining social solidarity and structure, so using it the community will try to push aside and suffocate all those foreign elements trying to threat local ones. Using such measures excludes immigrants who cannot "put their hands" onto cultural goals with their "instrumentum operandi", so being at the edge of survivor, their changing their "modus operandi" using different, in most cases unaccepted cultural means. (Stanojoska, 2016) Robin Cohen (1994:189) called this groups "third world immigrant" or "helots"; that is those immigrants who, in addition to being deprived of many rights enjoyed by citizens - principally, the right to vote and be elected - are in much worse situation than other foreigners in a given receiving country because they belong to an ethnic minority, are unskilled, and are poor. The difference between foreigners coming from poor and rich countries is also manifested in the enforcement of controls over borders: states do not distribute burden evenly. Foreigners coming from different parts of the globe are treated differently concerning formal and informal practices - visa requirements, restrictions on the right to entry and stay, enjoyment of civil rights, and judicial and extrajudicial treatment. (Aliverti, 2013) And at the end there is always a difference between "crimmigrants" or those seen as a danger, undocumented, maybe terrorists, people with criminal background) and "travelers (bona fide) or people who are privileged and can move without problems. (Franko Aas, 2011) The word "crimmigrant" is coinage and as a term originates from the words criminal and immigrant, and is used in purpose to describe the perception of immigrants and today, refugees coming from Arab countries, as potential criminals. (Stanojoska, 2016) The migration route is a path which moves on the same steps as the one of organized crime. A migration flow is like an open market for smugglers who can sell their products (in this case the possibility to get out of conflict zones and then get in the EU). Smuggling of migrants, but also trafficking in human beings is out there, on those paths, living among people's destinies, becoming their everyday life. As European Union member countries acted on the rivers of people, their path changed into the quest of salvation. In 2012, Greece finished its fence on the border land with Turkey, migrants and refugees started moving using Bulgaria (from Turkey). When, in 2014, Bulgaria finished its fence on the border with Turkey, people started using the Eastern Mediterranean Route to get to European land (from Izmir and Bodrum to Kos and Lesbos) and afterwards the Western Balkan Route to EU. After this path became alive, some member countries started building fences on their borders. At first Hungary built fence on its border with Serbia which moved migrants and refugees to Croatia (and then Hungary). Making such step was an alarm for Hungarian authorities who continued building fences, this time on the border with Croatia, which influenced another change of paths towards Slovenia. During the period of free movement towards EU countries, mostly Germany and Sweden, there were times of barriers on the borders between Croatia and Slovenia, which eventually culminated with barriers between Austria and Slovenia. Closing of the Western Balkan Route, without having another effective solution just opened another routes for such organized crime groups, which continued to use another path towards EU. Possible alternative routes are those from Greece towards Italy after crossing the Mediterranean Sea, or from Greece to Albania crossing the Adriatic Sea, or from Egypt towards Lampedusa in Italy or even from Turkey crossing the Black Sea towards Bulgaria or Romania. In other words, it would be something as the British ex-prime minister Mrs.Thatcher once bluntly put it, "we joined Europe to have free movement of goods…I did not join Europe to have free movement of terrorists, criminals, drugs, plant and animal diseases and rabies and illegal immigrants". (Eriksen, 2007) Criminal networks are typically composed of several key individuals. The organizer or leader of the network is usually located in a key migration hub and is responsible for the overall coordination within the network. Members of migrant smuggling networks typically work autonomously with a number of lower-level contacts who are part of their personal network. Low-level contacts are used as drivers, crew members, scouts, or recruiting agents. These contacts typically operate as part of a network only for a limited time and are exchanged regularly. Migrant smuggling networks are flexible and adapt to changing business demands by relying on auxiliary members as necessary. These auxiliary members act as money handlers, guarantors or forgers. These individuals provide services to the network, but do not form part of networks' core memberships. (Europol, 2015) March the 18th will be known as one of the days when EU once again has shown its two faced game in this migration flow to its territories. Although Germany was the loudest promoter of giving shelter to refugees inside EU, at the end this whole charade of one for all, 28 for themselves, ended with an EU - Turkey Agreement, which should end migratory movements to EU. The two most important points accented with this Agreement should help the Union to stop movement towards its territories. Namely, every irregular migrant crossing from Turkey to Greece or found on Greek territory will be returned back to Turkey and for every returned migrant with Syrian origin, EU will accept another Syrian who is in Turkey. Seen through prism of humanity, we do not get a solution, because the Agreement will just worsen things up, which is already happening with people living in tents in subhuman conditions on the Greek - Macedonian border and of course, with an increased number of asylum applications in Greece which stops the returning of irregular migrants. Is this the Europe we all dreamed off? Or is it just a dream, as it is for refugees and immigrants? Also, being in the prism of interest, but also happening, terrorism is a phenomenon directly connected to ISIS and Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Penetrating in Turkey, through the shape of the Kurdish Workers' Party, terrorism has never been more alive and breathing at the doorstep of the European Union. Fear is associated with opinions declaring that using refugees many ISIS members will enter the Union, many sleeper cells among Europe will be awaken and will commit terrorist attacks in European metropolitan areas as revenge and part of the Holy War against infidels. Paris and Brussels will always be engraved in our memories as examples of how long can ISIS's hands be, and which consequences the so called "zombie" politics can suffer common European citizens.

The population of Ethiopia is still growing by 2.6% per annum mainly due to high fertility of 4.8 children per woman. Though increasing in the current decade, only about a quarter of married women used family planning methods in 2011. Though early childhood mortality diminished in recent years, this decline was not statistically significant in infant mortality. Levels and extent of reductions in the three components of population change and their relationships varied across different regions and by urban-rural setting in the country. Previous studies elsewhere showed relationship between population dynamics and health. Studies also revealed that intervention in one component of population change affects another component. A body of literature on insurance and replacement fertility response of childhood mortality were documented in least developing countries. Moreover, selection, disruption, adaptation, environmental theories had also documented the relationship between migration with fertility and under-five mortality. Migration might select people with different fertility behavior and childhood mortality experience compared to those without such behavior. If those with less number of children migrate, the fertility and child mortality of non-migrants in the place of origin would be inflated compared to those of the migrants. Among the latter group, the disruption due to migration might contribute to reduction in fertility or increase in early childhood mortality. Besides, the group might adapt the fertility behavior of the population in the area of destination. In this regard, this thesis aimed at measuring levels of and assessing relationships between fertility, contraception, under-five mortality and migration in the designated area of the study. It also tried to identify main proximate and distal factors of each of these components of population change in the context of the recently introduced village-based health extension program, reproductive health strategy and population policy in the densely populated Butajira District of South Central Ethiopia. Methods The study was hosted by the Butajira Demographic Surveillance System which is located about 135 kms from Addis Ababa in the southern direction. Qualitative and quantitative methods were employed in this study. The quantitative research used two data sources. The longitudinal surveillance database up to the end of 2008 was extracted to recruit study women of reproductive age for the cross-sectional study which aimed at measuring levels and identifying determinants of fertility, contraception and the unmet need of family planning. The database was also used to have a detailed insight into early childhood mortality and out-migration in the district. Standard data collection instruments of the INDEPTH-Network and Measure DHS were contextually adapted for the longitudinal database and the cross-sectional survey respectively. A priori focus group discussions were held to incorporate the community's terminologies and opinions. A total of 11,133 women of reproductive age were recruited from the surveillance database and 9,996 of them responded positively. Especially trained and experienced field staff collected the data. There was rigorous supervision. Data sources were managed by softwares having internal consistency checking mechanisms. Cleaning was done at desk. Serious anomalies were taken back to the field for reconciliation, while others were rectified by imputing values from logical flows in the questionnaire. Frequency distributions, cross-tabulations and graphical presentations were done. Event history analysis was used to calculate person time of exposure, incidence and prevalence rates using longitudinal data. Odds ratio along with the 95% confidence interval in binary logistic regression was used to determine association between covariates and the binary outcome of interest. In the case of fertility, Bongaart's model to measure the inhibition effects of proximate determinants and the incidence rate ratio in Poisson regression along with the 95% confidence interval was used to measure the association between fertility and covariates. Poisson regression was also used to measure associations of background characteristics with out-migration and under-five mortality. Assumptions of all the statistical models used in this study were checked. Results The total fertility rate of 5.3 children per woman was high and comparable to the rest of Ethiopia with rural-urban disparity (Highland, TFR=5.7, Lowland, TFR=6.6 and Urban, TFR=3.3). Postpartum infecundability due to breastfeeding (Ci=0.68) significantly deducted fertility from its biological maximum. The contribution of contraception (Cc-u=0.57, Cc-e=0.43) and nonmarriage (Cm-u=0.53, Cm-e=0.41) was important among urbanites and educated women. Abortion contributed a significant role to reduce fertility among school youth (Ca=0.76). The fertility incidence rate ratio was 1.38: 95% CI (1.27, 1.49) times higher among those married before their 15 birthday, 1.24: 95% CI (1.10, 1.39) times higher among uneducated, 1.95: 95% CI (1.84, 2.06) times higher among those families with large size, 1.67: 95% CI (1.59, 1.76) times higher with child death experience and 1.06: 95% CI (1.01, 1.13) times higher among women living in food-secured households compared to their counterparts. Against other findings, fertility was 1.09: 95% CI (1.04, 1.15) significantly higher among women with no child sex preference. Besides, migration status of women did not seem to predict their fertility levels (1.02: 95% CI (0.97, 1.07)). The contraceptive prevalence rate of 25.4%: 95% CI (24.2, 26.5) in Butajira District was comparable though unmet need of 52.4%: 95% CI (51.1, 53.7) was very high compared to national and regional estimates. Full stock out and absence of methods' mix, religion, complaints related to providers and methods, assumption of having proper diet, and optimum workload when using family planning methods were barriers of contraceptive use mentioned by study women in the area. The odds of contraception was 2.3: 95% CI (1.66, 3.18) times higher among urbanites, 1.99: 95% CI (1.38, 2.88) times higher among those completed secondary level of education and 1.5: 95% CI (1.12, 2.01) times higher among women whose partners completed secondary plus level of education, 1.3: 95% CI (1.13, 1.5) times higher among women with no experience of child death, 2.21: (1.8, 2.7) times higher among couples who discussed on contraception and 2.59: 95% CI (2.11, 3.17) times higher among women whose partners' support family planning use compared to their counterparts. Under-five mortality level of 29 per 1000: 95% CI (27.4, 31.8) in the District recorded over the 22 years of surveillance was low. The difference between infant mortality of 86.6 per 1000: 95% CI (77.4, 96.9) and child mortality of 19.2 per 1000: 95% CI (17.4, 21.3) was higher. Compared to their counterparts, the study also showed 0.85: 95% CI (0.79, 0.80) times lower under-five mortality among female children, 1.14: 95% CI (1.03, 1.25) times higher under five mortality among Muslim and 15.24: 95% CI (13.75, 16.89) times higher among minority Christian families, 1.31: 95% CI (1.04, 1.66) and 2.02: 95% CI (1.58, 2.59) times higher among rural highlanders and rural lowlanders respectively, 1.54: (1.43, 1.67) times higher among families owning oxen, and 1.92: 95% CI (1.66, 2.22) times higher among families owning houses and 2.4: 95% CI (1.89, 2.06) times higher among those living in rented houses and 2.13: 95% CI (1.79, 2.53) times higher in children living in houses roofed with thatched grass, and 1.46: 95% CI (1.26, 1.69) times higher among those living in the neighborhoods located 5-9 kilometers away from Butajira zonal hospital. The study also revealed high out-migration of 3.97 per 100 person years (3.93, 4.01) in the district. The risk of out-migration was 0.94: 95% CI (0.92, 0.96) times lower among females, 1.9: 95% CI (1.85, 1.96), 1.77: 95% CI (1.71, 1.82), 1.55: 95% CI (1.49, 1.62), 1.23: 95% CI (1.17, 1.29) or 2.82: 95% CI (2.66, 2.98), 1.29: 95% CI (1.26, 1.32), 4.71: 95% CI (4.56, 4.87), 1.18: 95% CI (1.15, 1.22), 1.58: 95% CI (1.52, 1.64) and 2.11: 95% (2.04, 2.18) times higher among teenagers, the youth, unmarried, primary school completes or above, Orthodox and minority Christians, urbanites, and those living in rented houses and owned by others compared to their respective counterparts. Some relationship between the three components of population change was also observed. There was statistically significant association between early childhood mortality and fertility (6.07: 95% CI (5.36, 6.87)). However, the association between fertility and migration status was not statistically significant (1.05: 95% CI (0.92, 1.19)). Neither was the association between underfive mortality and migration statistically significant (1.04: 95% CI (0.92, 1.19)). Conclusions and Recommendations Fertility was still high in the study community with high rural urban disparity. The most effective proximate determinant to deduct fertility from its biological maximum level was non-marriage due to disruption of marriage through migration of one of the partners. The contribution of contraception and non-marriage was also important among urbanites and educated women. Postpartum infecundability also significantly reduced fertility from its biological maximum in rural areas and among uneducated women. Abortion had also played an important role in reducing fertility among in-school youth. Delayed marriage, higher education, smaller family size, absence of child death in the family, and living in food-secured households were also significantly associated with small number of children. Besides, fertility was significantly higher among women with no child sex preference. However, migration status of women was not statistically significant. The contraceptive prevalence rate in Butajira District was still low, though unmet need was very high. Barrier to contraception in the area included, stock out and absence of preferred family planning methods, religion, complaints related to providers and methods, assumption of having proper diet, and optimum workload when using family planning methods. Significant predictors of contraception in the district included urban residence, women's and their partners' educational status, child death experience, couple's discussion on contraception, and partners' support. The magnitude of overall early childhood mortality levels in the district recorded over the 22 years of surveillance, though low compared to the national and regional level was still high. Infant mortality was higher than child mortality in the district. Under-five mortality was significantly higher among male children, families confessing Muslim and non-Orthodox Christian denominations, rural residents, families owning oxen, those having their own houses, families living in rent-free houses, households living in houses with roofs of thatched grass, and families living in neighborhoods located between 5-9 kilometers from the zonal hospital as compared with their counterparts. A high incidence of out-migration was observed in the district with higher level among males, teenagers, the youth, primary and secondary education or above completes, those not in marital unions, Christians, urbanites, and families in rented and owed houses compared to those in owned ones. This study had also showed statistically significant association between early childhood mortality and fertility. The association between fertility and migration was not statistically significant. Neither was the case between early childhood mortality and migration in the study area. We recommend that the ills of fast population growth and its consequences should be intensively informed to the public. Women must be encouraged to sustain the practice of extended breastfeeding. Efforts should also be exerted to increase contraceptive use in rural communities. Besides, in-school youth should be aware of post-abortion complications and youth friendly family planning methods to reduce fertility, maternal mortality and childhood mortality in the community. Longer years of women's education should be scaled up. Health systems in Butajira District and the capacity of staff should be strengthened. The Government should avail family planning methods with appropriate method mix and increase competence of providers on managing temporary side effects. More rigorous child and maternal health education should be channeled through village-based health extension workers. Household hygiene, antenatal care, immunization and facility based delivery in the district should be scaled up. More efforts should also be exerted to improve the quality of residential houses. An insurance scheme to care for the elderly should be put in place to bring about change in the behavior of families towards small family size. We suggest that local authorities need to facilitate local employment and housing opportunities for retaining young and educated people in their own areas, to safeguard the future well-being of the entire population

The population of Ethiopia is still growing by 2.6% per annum mainly due to high fertility of 4.8 children per woman. Though increasing in the current decade, only about a quarter of married women used family planning methods in 2011. Though early childhood mortality diminished in recent years, this decline was not statistically significant in infant mortality. Levels and extent of reductions in the three components of population change and their relationships varied across different regions and by urban-rural setting in the country. Previous studies elsewhere showed relationship between population dynamics and health. Studies also revealed that intervention in one component of population change affects another component. A body of literature on insurance and replacement fertility response of childhood mortality were documented in least developing countries. Moreover, selection, disruption, adaptation, environmental theories had also documented the relationship between migration with fertility and under-five mortality. Migration might select people with different fertility behavior and childhood mortality experience compared to those without such behavior. If those with less number of children migrate, the fertility and child mortality of non-migrants in the place of origin would be inflated compared to those of the migrants. Among the latter group, the disruption due to migration might contribute to reduction in fertility or increase in early childhood mortality. Besides, the group might adapt the fertility behavior of the population in the area of destination. In this regard, this thesis aimed at measuring levels of and assessing relationships between fertility, contraception, under-five mortality and migration in the designated area of the study. It also tried to identify main proximate and distal factors of each of these components of population change in the context of the recently introduced village-based health extension program, reproductive health strategy and population policy in the densely populated Butajira District of South Central Ethiopia. Methods The study was hosted by the Butajira Demographic Surveillance System which is located about 135 kms from Addis Ababa in the southern direction. Qualitative and quantitative methods were employed in this study. The quantitative research used two data sources. The longitudinal surveillance database up to the end of 2008 was extracted to recruit study women of reproductive age for the cross-sectional study which aimed at measuring levels and identifying determinants of fertility, contraception and the unmet need of family planning. The database was also used to have a detailed insight into early childhood mortality and out-migration in the district. Standard data collection instruments of the INDEPTH-Network and Measure DHS were contextually adapted for the longitudinal database and the cross-sectional survey respectively. A priori focus group discussions were held to incorporate the community's terminologies and opinions. A total of 11,133 women of reproductive age were recruited from the surveillance database and 9,996 of them responded positively. Especially trained and experienced field staff collected the data. There was rigorous supervision. Data sources were managed by softwares having internal consistency checking mechanisms. Cleaning was done at desk. Serious anomalies were taken back to the field for reconciliation, while others were rectified by imputing values from logical flows in the questionnaire. Frequency distributions, cross-tabulations and graphical presentations were done. Event history analysis was used to calculate person time of exposure, incidence and prevalence rates using longitudinal data. Odds ratio along with the 95% confidence interval in binary logistic regression was used to determine association between covariates and the binary outcome of interest. In the case of fertility, Bongaart's model to measure the inhibition effects of proximate determinants and the incidence rate ratio in Poisson regression along with the 95% confidence interval was used to measure the association between fertility and covariates. Poisson regression was also used to measure associations of background characteristics with out-migration and under-five mortality. Assumptions of all the statistical models used in this study were checked. Results The total fertility rate of 5.3 children per woman was high and comparable to the rest of Ethiopia with rural-urban disparity (Highland, TFR=5.7, Lowland, TFR=6.6 and Urban, TFR=3.3). Postpartum infecundability due to breastfeeding (Ci=0.68) significantly deducted fertility from its biological maximum. The contribution of contraception (Cc-u=0.57, Cc-e=0.43) and nonmarriage (Cm-u=0.53, Cm-e=0.41) was important among urbanites and educated women. Abortion contributed a significant role to reduce fertility among school youth (Ca=0.76). The fertility incidence rate ratio was 1.38: 95% CI (1.27, 1.49) times higher among those married before their 15 birthday, 1.24: 95% CI (1.10, 1.39) times higher among uneducated, 1.95: 95% CI (1.84, 2.06) times higher among those families with large size, 1.67: 95% CI (1.59, 1.76) times higher with child death experience and 1.06: 95% CI (1.01, 1.13) times higher among women living in food-secured households compared to their counterparts. Against other findings, fertility was 1.09: 95% CI (1.04, 1.15) significantly higher among women with no child sex preference. Besides, migration status of women did not seem to predict their fertility levels (1.02: 95% CI (0.97, 1.07)). The contraceptive prevalence rate of 25.4%: 95% CI (24.2, 26.5) in Butajira District was comparable though unmet need of 52.4%: 95% CI (51.1, 53.7) was very high compared to national and regional estimates. Full stock out and absence of methods' mix, religion, complaints related to providers and methods, assumption of having proper diet, and optimum workload when using family planning methods were barriers of contraceptive use mentioned by study women in the area. The odds of contraception was 2.3: 95% CI (1.66, 3.18) times higher among urbanites, 1.99: 95% CI (1.38, 2.88) times higher among those completed secondary level of education and 1.5: 95% CI (1.12, 2.01) times higher among women whose partners completed secondary plus level of education, 1.3: 95% CI (1.13, 1.5) times higher among women with no experience of child death, 2.21: (1.8, 2.7) times higher among couples who discussed on contraception and 2.59: 95% CI (2.11, 3.17) times higher among women whose partners' support family planning use compared to their counterparts. Under-five mortality level of 29 per 1000: 95% CI (27.4, 31.8) in the District recorded over the 22 years of surveillance was low. The difference between infant mortality of 86.6 per 1000: 95% CI (77.4, 96.9) and child mortality of 19.2 per 1000: 95% CI (17.4, 21.3) was higher. Compared to their counterparts, the study also showed 0.85: 95% CI (0.79, 0.80) times lower under-five mortality among female children, 1.14: 95% CI (1.03, 1.25) times higher under five mortality among Muslim and 15.24: 95% CI (13.75, 16.89) times higher among minority Christian families, 1.31: 95% CI (1.04, 1.66) and 2.02: 95% CI (1.58, 2.59) times higher among rural highlanders and rural lowlanders respectively, 1.54: (1.43, 1.67) times higher among families owning oxen, and 1.92: 95% CI (1.66, 2.22) times higher among families owning houses and 2.4: 95% CI (1.89, 2.06) times higher among those living in rented houses and 2.13: 95% CI (1.79, 2.53) times higher in children living in houses roofed with thatched grass, and 1.46: 95% CI (1.26, 1.69) times higher among those living in the neighborhoods located 5-9 kilometers away from Butajira zonal hospital. The study also revealed high out-migration of 3.97 per 100 person years (3.93, 4.01) in the district. The risk of out-migration was 0.94: 95% CI (0.92, 0.96) times lower among females, 1.9: 95% CI (1.85, 1.96), 1.77: 95% CI (1.71, 1.82), 1.55: 95% CI (1.49, 1.62), 1.23: 95% CI (1.17, 1.29) or 2.82: 95% CI (2.66, 2.98), 1.29: 95% CI (1.26, 1.32), 4.71: 95% CI (4.56, 4.87), 1.18: 95% CI (1.15, 1.22), 1.58: 95% CI (1.52, 1.64) and 2.11: 95% (2.04, 2.18) times higher among teenagers, the youth, unmarried, primary school completes or above, Orthodox and minority Christians, urbanites, and those living in rented houses and owned by others compared to their respective counterparts. Some relationship between the three components of population change was also observed. There was statistically significant association between early childhood mortality and fertility (6.07: 95% CI (5.36, 6.87)). However, the association between fertility and migration status was not statistically significant (1.05: 95% CI (0.92, 1.19)). Neither was the association between underfive mortality and migration statistically significant (1.04: 95% CI (0.92, 1.19)). Conclusions and Recommendations Fertility was still high in the study community with high rural urban disparity. The most effective proximate determinant to deduct fertility from its biological maximum level was non-marriage due to disruption of marriage through migration of one of the partners. The contribution of contraception and non-marriage was also important among urbanites and educated women. Postpartum infecundability also significantly reduced fertility from its biological maximum in rural areas and among uneducated women. Abortion had also played an important role in reducing fertility among in-school youth. Delayed marriage, higher education, smaller family size, absence of child death in the family, and living in food-secured households were also significantly associated with small number of children. Besides, fertility was significantly higher among women with no child sex preference. However, migration status of women was not statistically significant. The contraceptive prevalence rate in Butajira District was still low, though unmet need was very high. Barrier to contraception in the area included, stock out and absence of preferred family planning methods, religion, complaints related to providers and methods, assumption of having proper diet, and optimum workload when using family planning methods. Significant predictors of contraception in the district included urban residence, women's and their partners' educational status, child death experience, couple's discussion on contraception, and partners' support. The magnitude of overall early childhood mortality levels in the district recorded over the 22 years of surveillance, though low compared to the national and regional level was still high. Infant mortality was higher than child mortality in the district. Under-five mortality was significantly higher among male children, families confessing Muslim and non-Orthodox Christian denominations, rural residents, families owning oxen, those having their own houses, families living in rent-free houses, households living in houses with roofs of thatched grass, and families living in neighborhoods located between 5-9 kilometers from the zonal hospital as compared with their counterparts. A high incidence of out-migration was observed in the district with higher level among males, teenagers, the youth, primary and secondary education or above completes, those not in marital unions, Christians, urbanites, and families in rented and owed houses compared to those in owned ones. This study had also showed statistically significant association between early childhood mortality and fertility. The association between fertility and migration was not statistically significant. Neither was the case between early childhood mortality and migration in the study area. We recommend that the ills of fast population growth and its consequences should be intensively informed to the public. Women must be encouraged to sustain the practice of extended breastfeeding. Efforts should also be exerted to increase contraceptive use in rural communities. Besides, in-school youth should be aware of post-abortion complications and youth friendly family planning methods to reduce fertility, maternal mortality and childhood mortality in the community. Longer years of women's education should be scaled up. Health systems in Butajira District and the capacity of staff should be strengthened. The Government should avail family planning methods with appropriate method mix and increase competence of providers on managing temporary side effects. More rigorous child and maternal health education should be channeled through village-based health extension workers. Household hygiene, antenatal care, immunization and facility based delivery in the district should be scaled up. More efforts should also be exerted to improve the quality of residential houses. An insurance scheme to care for the elderly should be put in place to bring about change in the behavior of families towards small family size. We suggest that local authorities need to facilitate local employment and housing opportunities for retaining young and educated people in their own areas, to safeguard the future well-being of the entire population

According to the United Nations Population Fund, in October 2011 the world population reached 7 billion people, 3456.8 millions of whom are women.In the U.S.A, the total population is 313.1 million in 2011. Of those, 158.5 million are women, which means a little bit more than a half. In this country the people eligible to vote in 2008 reached more than 218 million, 55% of whom are women.The numbers are similar in Switzerland. With a total population of 7.7 million people, the country has 3.9 million of women – again, just a little bit more than the half –, and 54% of the Swiss eligible to vote are women (2010).However, the current representation of women in politics around the world does not reflect the population data. At parliamentary level worldwide, the percentage of women who occupies seats as deputies or senators is 19.2% and 17.8% respectively. These means that even though the historical representation of women in politics has been rising, the number of males representatives still is overwhelmingly higher.For reference only, the minimum percentage that is consider necessary for a fair and considerable representation of ideas that can influence the decision making is about 30%.In January 1918 the 19th Amendment of the USA Constitution was included in the political agenda for the discussion of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The president of USA, Woodrow Wilson, recognizing the woman's support to their country during the war, urged the politicians to vote in favor of the amendment. The Representatives passed the amendment on May 1919, and the Senate did the same on June. Thereafter, the approval was in hands of each state. More than twenty states ratified it within six months. Thirty six were needed to include the amendment into the Constitution, and Tennessee turned out to be the one which had the final decision. After a very close vote, just one of the legislators changed his opinion and the woman's right to vote was approved. Literally, the 19th amendment says: "The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation." With those two simple lines, the activist women of the USA, who had been fighting for their right to vote for more than seven decades, finally achieved their goal and the history of American women in politics change forever.On the other hand, Switzerland is the last European country that allowed its women to vote at national level. Many say that it was due to the decisions take longer to be taken in a direct democracy. But there, it took too long.The Swiss society can be consider as patriarchal, conservative, traditional and with marked streaks sexist, which is exemplifiedin the traditional perception of the woman's role as restricted to 'kinder, kirche und kuche' ('children, church and kitchen'), still valid specially in German-speaking regions.However, the active feminist movements exist since long time ago, and they fight not only for the woman's right to vote, but also for legal equality and the empowerment of women in all aspects.By 1962, with the intention to sign the European Convention of Human Rights, the government of Switzerland asked for an exception about the legal equality of genders – specifically for the women's right to vote -. Against this, the associations pro the female suffrage protested, and the commotion forced the authorities to review that posture. So, a referendum was decided by the government in 1968, and the public consultation took place in February 1971. Finally, the results were different. More than six hundred thousand (about 66%) Swiss men said YES to the women's right to vote, so since then all Swiss women are allowed to vote at national level.Furthermore, on October 31 of the same year, there was a parliamentary election in Switzerland, and eleven women were elected to be part of it.The United States of American and Switzerland differs in many aspects, such as size, population, traditions and history. However, both have also some things in common. They both took too long to allow their women to vote, granting with that a better political equality.Their political regime is pretty similar, both are democratic countries. In the process of getting the female suffrage the USA parliament, as well as the Swiss, played a key role since the decision of including the issue into the constitutional order should, in the first instance, be approved by the legislature. But after the parliament passed it, the next step was different within the two countries. USA led the final decision to the local governments, while in Switzerland was the people who had to finish the process. This means that in the European country the men citizens had the final word instead of the parliamentarians, who should represent the interest of all citizens, men and women. There is then, a social matter. Switzerland is a multicultural country with a big percentage of foreigners among its residents, four official languages, and a rich history of immigration. Nevertheless, the Swiss society is mostly conservative and traditional, in particular its regions of German´s descendants and residents, not so the French or Italians. The facts speak by themselves: in the referendum of 1959, only three cantons voted for allow the Swiss women to vote, all three were 'French'; while in the 'German' canton call Appenzell Innerrhoden, the amount of No votes was about 95%. Another point that can be considered as a difference within the two countries concerning the female struggle, are their leaders. Both, the American and the Swiss movement, had notorious female leaders. They were all active politicians and were deeply committed to the cause, which contributes to the organization of the movements and also to the well development of the activities.However, the American female leaders, although they were largely convinced of the injustice of gender inequality, none of them had high-level education. The abolitionist Elizabeth Cady Stanton was a writer, but she never took college studies. Lucretia Mott was a school teacher; and Susan B. Anthony just dedicated her entire life to the fight for women's rights. Except for Stanton (she was a lawyer's daughter), they didn't came from high educated families. Meanwhile, the most famous leader of the Swiss movement for women's right to vote, Josi Meier had a different background. Her real name was Josephine Johanna Meier, but was also known as the 'Grand Old Lady'. She died in 2006 at the age of eighty. Meier, who also came from a poor family, graduated as a lawyer in 1952, but had been defending women's right for a long time. When the right to vote for women was finally awarded in 1971, she became one of the members of the Lucerne cantonal parliament, and some month later she was among the eleven women elected as parliamentary representatives. Moreover, Meier took place in the Senate some years later and in 1991 became the first woman ever to be the Senate's speaker.It is worth comparing also the opposition that the movements had to face in both countries. The resistance to the women's right to vote, in USA as in Switzerland, had the objective of stop the progressive movements, defended the traditional order of the society and, as Nicole Herz (1992) describes, "'Antis' had to re-define the scope of woman's sphere and put government back into the male's sphere". Furthermore, the opposition in USA and in Switzerland used to use the same arguments to fight against the change. The religious beliefs were common among the opposition movements. The 'God word' and the biblical commandments that assure women were made to be men's support, good wives and exemplary mothers, dedicated to their homes and children, were some of the weapons of the anti-suffragist. Coming from conservative education, they believed that 'women belong to the kitchen' and there they must remain. Political issues were thought to be rude and complicated so only men should handle it, women would lose their femininity if they involved in politics. Other of the arguments was that the basis of the family, and therefore of society, was the women's homemakers, so if women get their right to vote, then they would had less time to do it and the families would lose their foundations, so the society would derail.Finally, there is one last fact that both, USA and Switzerland, had in common. It was the influence of an external factor into their government decision of do something about the right to vote for women. In the USA it was the World War I. In Switzerland, the Cold War.During the First World War (1914 – 1918) the American women began to be part of the work force of the country while the men went to fight in the battlefield. Doing this, women helped to sustain the USA economy developing their labor in traditional male occupations. After that, they used it as a weapon and strong argument for their struggle for suffrage right. If they were strong enough to work as men, their opinion should also be important enough in politics as men's. The men and the government must recognized it, and they had not any strong argument against the women's claim anymore. On the other hand, the Swiss government was afraid about the national security during the Cold War. Given the geopolitical situation and the small size of Switzerland, the Communist could saw it as a strategic war point. For that reason, the government thought in expand and strengthen its military force, including women into it. Again, the Swiss women, as the Americans, argued that the demand of their labor force should be compensated by granting the right that they had been fighting for. Moreover, in Switzerland there was also another factor that there was not in USA. The integration with the European region, materialized in the signing of the European Convention of Human Rights, needed the government to catch up its settings, so the legal equality should be guaranteed. The willing of being part of the region in such a difficult time as the Cold War, pushed the Swiss government to move forward in the woman's right to vote issue.The United States of America, as well as Switzerland, witnessed the long struggle for the female right to vote but, what are the current results of it? How much equality have today those countries in political terms? Have their women real participation in politics nowadays?According to the Interparliamentary Union ranking, in 2010 Switzerland was positioned as the 26th country with more women in parliamentary, while USA was in the 70th position with only 89 women among 532 legislators. Although some researchers suggest that the American women are more likely to participate in elections by making use of their right to vote than men; the USA politics still have a lot to improve in order to eliminate the gender gap in political area. On its part, Switzerland has less inequality in politics, but still is not absolutely equal. The Swiss Executive Branch is comprised of seven members, all with equal decision power, and one of them is named, by rotation, Federal President. The first woman elected as President was Ruth Dreifuss, who took place of the position in 1999.In 2010 for the first time, three women were occupying high political positions in the Swiss government simultaneously. Moreover, in September 22 of the same year, after one more woman was elected as minister, the Executive was composed by four women and three men, marking the first time ever that the Swiss government has a female majority. To sum up, unlike USA, which has never had a woman as President; Switzerland seems to be more progressive when it comes to high positions in politics nowadays. *Estudiante de la Licenciatura en Estudios Internacionales.FACS - Universidad ORT Uruguay

Introduction: Tradition and Change: Many of the well established Western European pharmaceutical wholesalers are companies with strong local traditions and roots dating back for several decades and more. GEHE Pharma Handel GmbH, one of the top pharmaceutical wholesalers in Germany, was celebrating its 175th birthday in 2010. AAH Pharmaceuticals Ltd., the UK's leading distributor of pharmaceutical and healthcare products, was established in 1923, and Herba Chemosan Apotheker-AG, Austria's largest pharmaceutical service and trading company, was established in 1916 as a cooperative from pharmacists for pharmacists. But having years to add does not equal getting old, as we will see in the course of this study. The times of transformation free eras have long gone, stability is not the norm anymore and the challenges being faced today are completely different. The globalisation of markets and competition has forced and still 'is forcing firms to make dramatic improvements not only to compete and prosper but also to merely survive'. For many reasons, which will be detailed throughout this study, pharmaceutical wholesalers across Europe have been facing the need for improvements to secure sustainability and growth. In addition, 'there has been significant consolidation of pharmaceutical wholesalers in Europe … affecting not only the distribution of market share but also the strategic orientation of the surviving firms'. Healthcare in Transition: Not only within the European Union but also across the entire OECD countries, healthcare is one of the largest industries with a dominant position in terms of job creation and a dynamic force in terms of innovation. Despite significant achievements in the health status of populations, concerns prevail on how resources are used in healthcare and how to guarantee an efficient and effective use of modern medicine. The weight of healthcare expenses in relation to GDP has increased the demand to harmonise internationally different definitions and improve the cross-national comparability of data on healthcare expenses. Consequently, the OECD has developed the 'System of Health Accounts'. This manual provides a common framework and supports the international comparison of healthcare data across countries and over time. A combination of medical progress, demographic changes and shifting social expectations are the major drivers of increasing health expenditures in developed countries. Within the EU-15, spending for healthcare has a significant share in percent of GDP. In 2005, the average healthcare spending in the EU-15 was 8.3% of GDP, leading to an increased dominance of expense controls (Figure 1:Total spending on healthcare in % of GDP (2006)). The pharmaceutical market is an integrated part of the overall healthcare market and driven by innovation and milestone improvements as is the overall healthcare market. The pharmaceutical market is the major reference market for the pharmaceutical wholesale industry. The standing and weight of the pharmaceutical market is expressed in the pharmaceutical quota. The pharmaceutical quota reflects the ratio of pharmaceutical expenses in comparison to the overall expenses for healthcare (Figure 2: Pharmaceutical expenditure in % of total health expenditure (2006)). Pharmaceutical expenditure varies significantly across Europe with a record share of 31.9% of total health expenditure in Hungary. The focus on pharmaceutical spending has become of growing importance, as governments are increasingly facing budget problems in financing healthcare activities for their citizens. The prices of established medicines are generally declining over their life cycle but pharmaceutical spending is triggered by non-cyclical trends, such as increasing life expectancy in industrialised nations and the introduction of new and innovative medicines at increased costs. The global pharmaceutical market will continue to grow and drugs will still be perceived as an efficient method of treatment compared with other types of medical care (Figure 3: Life expectancy in years at birth (2008)). Total spending on healthcare in relation to GDP and life expectancy is still relatively low in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). However, the higher share of spending in pharmaceuticals can be interpreted as reduced spending on other forms of treatment and thereby increasing the importance of pharmaceuticals. Reduced average life expectancy in CEE shows that there is still a need to draw level with the rest of Europe. These trends will ultimately support the growth of pharmaceutical markets but further increase the pressure on local governments to finance additional healthcare. Research Objectives: Pharmaceutical wholesale distribution is an unknown area for the general public, and very often for other players in the healthcare market and politicians too. Little is known about this vital business-to-business link between pharmaceutical production at the beginning and dispensing of drugs at the end of the supply chain. Pharmaceutical wholesale distribution has a long-history in Europe and repeatedly proved to be the most efficient bridge between production and point of sale (PoS) or point of dispensing (PoD). Within the last years, the topic of changes in European healthcare has become of ever growing importance. The pace of change has increased exponentially in some countries. In a functioning healthcare system, pharmaceutical wholesalers are fully embedded and thus significantly affected by a changing environment. Risks and opportunities go hand in hand while governments are changing their policies in healthcare spending, pharmaceutical manufacturers are changing their mode of operating and patients and consumers are changing their ways of receiving or buying pharmaceuticals. The aim of this master thesis is to highlight the role of pharmaceutical full-line wholesalers, to give detailed analyses of an ever-changing healthcare world and map out the most relevant threats and opportunities for European full-line pharmaceutical wholesalers. Structure: This master thesis comprises of five chapters. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to European healthcare and explains the purpose of this thesis. Chapter 2 focuses on the definition of full-line pharmaceutical wholesalers, the specific functions they hold within the pharmaceutical supply chain, and the value added they provide. Chapter 3 investigates the major trends leading to a changing healthcare environment, evaluating the effects of changing demographic compositions, governments' needs to restrict healthcare spending and the consequences on pharmaceutical wholesalers. Chapter 4 deals with opportunities of growth to sustain the success of European pharmaceutical wholesalers in the long run: strategies for liberalising markets, the creation of value added services, vertical integration and the need to grow outside Europe are on display. Chapter 5, finally, summarises the findings of the master thesis. Data Source: Data for the analysis is mainly based on European drivers of healthcare systems. Analysis on national and corporate level has been included where applicable. Global research data, with a special focus on Brazil, Russia, China and India, has been analysed for the purpose of evaluating growth strategies for pharmaceutical wholesalers outside Europe. The reviewed literature has been published by first-in-class experts in healthcare such as IMS Health, the world's leading provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries, GIRP, the umbrella organisation of pharmaceutical full-line wholesalers in Europe, OECD, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and high-ranking consulting corporations such as Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and The Boston Consulting Group. A diverse set of sources was used to provide a comprehensive analysis on changing healthcare markets and the threats and opportunities for pharmaceutical wholesalers.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: 1.INTRODUCTION9 1.1TRADITION AND CHANGE9 1.2HEALTHCARE IN TRANSITION10 1.3RESEARCH OBJECTIVES14 1.4STRUCTURE15 1.5DATA SOURCE15 2.PHARMACEUTICAL WHOLESALE DISTRIBUTION17 2.1PHARMACEUTICAL SUPPLY CHAIN17 2.2FULL-LINE PHARMACEUTICAL WHOLESALERS18 2.3SHORT-LINE PHARMACEUTICAL WHOLESALERS19 2.4FUNCTIONS OF PHARMACEUTICAL WHOLESALERS20 2.4.1Bridging of Distances21 2.4.2Bridging of Time22 2.4.3Quantity Function22 2.4.4Quality Function24 2.4.5Services creating Added Value26 2.4.6Coverage27 3.HEALTHCARE IN TRANSITION29 3.1CHANGINGDEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION29 3.2CHALLENGES IN HEALTHCARE FUNDING33 3.3COST-DRIVEN CHANGES34 3.3.1Generic Market Penetration34 3.3.2Price Erosion38 3.4STRUCTURAL ALTERATIONS IN THE PHARMACEUTICAL SUPPLY CHAIN41 3.4.1Direct Deliveries42 3.4.2Public Service Obligation46 3.4.3Certified Supply Chain47 3.5TRANSFORMING HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS IN CEE49 3.5.1The Post-Semaskho Era49 3.5.2Informal Payments and Corruption51 4.SUSTAINABLE GROWTH55 4.1OUTSOURCING55 4.2VALUE ADDED SERVICES58 4.3VERTICAL INTEGRATION59 4.3.1Sweden Abolishes Pharmacy Monopoly60 4.3.2Legislation61 4.4COOPERATION MODELS66 4.5PHARMERGING MARKETS69 5.CONCLUSION73Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 2.1, Pharmaceutical Supply Chain: Although the pharmaceutical supply chain has different peculiarities depending on national legislations and market structures, a general supply chain organisation exists and is to a large extent valid across Europe. Figure 4 shows that the origins of the pharmaceutical supply chain are at the manufacturing level. Pre-wholesaling is a preliminary stage of wholesaling and usually covers the logistics processes that have been outsourced by manufacturers. Phoenix, one of the three large pan-European pharmaceutical trading companies, explains the growing importance of pre-wholesale activities: 'Today, there is not a single country in Europe where it is not in manufacturers' interests to outsource their entire distribution and logistics requirements, whether for drugs, medical products or veterinary pharmaceuticals, to a specialist company operating within an efficient pharmaceutical logistical system. This logistics partner takes over responsibility for distribution to all wholesalers.' In addition to basic logistical services, such as the professional storage and transportation in accordance with legislation and special requirements for handling drugs, pre-wholesalers offer tailor-made solutions to the pharmaceutical industry. Tailor-made solutions include among others the tracking of medicine deliveries, monitoring of temperature, humidity and exposure to light, and country specific packaging and labelling. 2.2, Full-line Pharmaceutical Wholesalers: Distribution of pharmaceuticals is the core business of full-line pharmaceutical wholesalers. They provide the most important link between pharmaceutical manufacturing and the point of sale (PoS) and point of dispensing (PoD). 'The activity of pharmaceutical full-line wholesaling consists of the purchase, warehousing, storage, order preparation and delivery of medicines. Pharmaceutical full-line wholesalers carry and distribute the complete assortment of products in range and depth within the framework set by the authorities and the market to meet the needs of those with whom they have normal business relations. In addition to delivering all medicines in their geographical area of activity on the same day/within less than 24 hours, pharmaceutical full-line wholesalers provide working capital and extended financing services, funding of stock and receivables of pharmacies and health care professionals'. Pharmaceutical wholesalers provide not only state-of-the-art logistics services but also a wide range of value added services to various stakeholders in healthcare. Tailor-made solutions for the pharmaceutical industry are becoming increasingly important and full-service support beyond logistics competencies has long been established for pharmacy customers. Value added services are no longer mere add-ons to the logistics services but are vital competitive assets. Wholesalers are not only creating benefits down-stream in the supply chain but also across the healthcare market including the final consumers of medicines. 2.3, Short-line Pharmaceutical Wholesalers: Another mode of wholesaling is provided by short-line wholesalers, which are the cherry pickers of pharmaceutical wholesaling. Short-liners restrain their product portfolio to a specific range of pharmaceuticals only. Consequently, they benefit significantly from a narrow financially driven product portfolio and slim cost structures. By contrast, full-line wholesalers offer the entire spectrum of medicines in order to guarantee supply and to support the health of the population. Service offers from short-line wholesalers are either minimal or not existing. National governments usually strive to achieve three targets concerning the pharmaceutical supply chain: drug safety, security of supply and quality of supply. Short-line wholesalers cannot guarantee the security of supply as they only provide a narrow range of medicines. Their focus on highly profitable products negatively affects the product portfolio of full-line wholesalers, which need the profitable products to be able to stock and distribute unprofitable medicines. Hybrid costing has been the economic baseline to guarantee the security of supply. To ensure that supply of medicines is guaranteed, several European countries have legally obliged wholesalers to provide the full range of medicines to pharmacies. France, Italy, Belgium, Greece, Portugal, Spain and some of the new EU member states have implemented these public service obligations.

This book serves as a toolkit on risk-based audits and brings together country experiences for implementing risk-based audit systems. Risk management is an important element of effective and efficient compliance management in revenue administration. It is impossible for any revenue administration to control and check every single taxpayer, and an unnecessary waste of scarce enforcement resources on routinely examining low-risk, compliant taxpayers. The opportunity costs for such roving examinations are high. Just as a private business allocates its resources to areas they feel have the most po

Since the Constitution (2005) provided for decentralizing powers and functions for the Governorates, the government of Iraq has enacted several legal, policy, and institutional reform initiatives, the intent of which is to shift political and administrative powers and responsibilities from the Central Government to the Governorates. The legal and policy framework for decentralization is yet to be followed through with efficient implementation. The Government of Iraq and the World Bank will like to assess the current status of decentralization and its implications for improving service delivery at the Governorate level. The objective of the assessment is to take stock of the current state of decentralization in Iraq with a view to identifying factors that contribute to weak service delivery performance at the governorate level. The assessment will also make recommendations for policy and process reforms that are deemed necessary to moving forward the decentralization process, thereby helping to improve service delivery performance by the Governorates. The assessment was carried out through a combination of desk reviews and field level consultations. This assessment provides a snapshot of the current status of the decentralization process. It identifies policy and process reform measures that are necessary to strengthen service delivery by the 15 Governorates of Iraq. Strengthening local accountability should be the key to strengthening the service delivery performance of the Governorates.