Suchergebnisse

Die starke Automobilabhängigkeit der Grenzpendler in Luxemburg ist vor allem auf den Mangel an effizienten Alternativen zur Überwindung der Strecke zwischen Wohn- und Arbeitsort zurückzuführen. Die Besonderheiten des grenzüberschreitenden Arbeitsmarkts (Lohnniveau) und die Attraktivität Luxemburgs (Steuervorteile) stimulieren den Erwerb und den Gebrauch von PKWs und stellen eine neue Facette der Automobilabhängigkeit dar. Angesichts der Infrastrukturauslastung und der Wachstumsprognosen für das Grenzpendlerwesen scheint eine Reduktion der PKW-Nutzung unausweichlich. Eine Förderung des öffentlichen Verkehrs setzt dabei eine Verbesserung der grenzüberschreitenden Verbindungen voraus und erfordert die Verständigung auf eine geeignete Interventionsebene unter Berücksichtigung der lokalen Gegeben ; International audience The strong car dependence of cross-border working force of Luxemburg is mainly due to the lack of efficient commuting alternatives. Specificities of cross-border labour market (wages conditions) as well as the attractive power of Luxemburg (taxation regime) enhance trans-border trips and motorization of frontier workers households, which in turn, drive new mechanisms into the car dependency process. Reducing frontiers workers car dependency seems inevitable based on increasing traffic congestion level and growing perspectives of cross-border labour market. Supporting modal report from cars to public transportation is one of potential solutions, but it requires defining the appropriate level of intervention, taking into account local territories specificities, so as to improve trans-border links and transit. ; La forte dépendance automobile des travailleurs frontaliers du Luxembourg est essentiellement liée au manque d'alternatives efficaces capables de concurrencer l'automobile pour les déplacements domicile/travail. Les spécificités du marché de l'emploi frontalier (conditions salariales) et l'attractivité du Luxembourg (en termes de fiscalité) tendraient à stimuler les déplacements transfrontaliers ...

Anlass der Arbeit ist die Notwendigkeit der Koordination von städtebaulicher und Energieplanung. Die Emissionen des Gebäudesektors können durch räumliche Koordination von Energienachfrage und –angebot gesenkt werden, z.B. durch die räumliche Priorisierung energetischer Sanierung, die Schaffung von Wärmeverbünden und die Einbindung von Abwärmequellen. Wegen der mit Wärmetransport verbundenen Verluste ist die räumliche Konstellation von Quellen und Senken für die Wärmeversorgung hoch relevant. Deshalb braucht es ein besseres Verständnis der räumlichen Verteilung der Wärmenachfrage, d.h. nicht der Bedarfe (ein terminus technicus für die mit Hilfe bautechnischer Information vorausberechnete Nachfrage), sondern der tatsächlichen Verbräuche, die von Bedarfen um oft mehr als 50% differieren und im Wesentlichen von Nutzern bestimmt sind. Mit der zunehmenden Verzahnung von Strom- und Wärmesektor und der Schaffung kleinerer Wärmeverbünde wird nicht nur das räumliche, sondern auch das zeitliche Muster der Wärmverbräuche zunehmend interessant. Hierzu gibt es noch kaum systematische Analysen. In diese Lücke stößt die Arbeit vor. Ziel der Arbeit ist die Entwicklung eines Modells, das den Wärmeverbrauch auf der Mikro-ebene (d.h. für einzelne Gebäude) in seiner räumlich-zeitlichen Verteilung für große städtische Agglomerationen simulieren kann. Dies erfordert: (1) Modelle einzelner Gebäude, (2) die explizite Berücksichtigung des menschlichen Verhaltens in der Bestimmung der Wärmenachfrage und (3) die Simulation einer großen Anzahl unterschiedlicher Gebäude, die ein Stadtgebiet definieren. Dafür kombiniert die Arbeit Methoden aus mehreren Disziplinen: (a) die räumliche Mikrosimulation (in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften entstanden, heute auch von Geografie und Sozialwissenschaften vorangetrieben), (b) die Gebäudesimulation, die Energieflüsse im einzelnen Gebäude nachzeichnet (traditionell in Bauphysik und technischer Thermodynamik verankert) und (c) die Typisierung des Gebäudebestands und die Allokation der Typen auf Einzelgebäude, die von vielen Autoren (meist aus den Ingenieur- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften) benutzt wird, um Politikmaßnahmen für den Gebäudesektor zu evaluieren. Das wichtigste Ergebnis dieser Arbeit ist ein Modell, das (1) einen synthetischen geo-refenzierten Gebäudebestand mit darin wohnenden Haushalten erzeugen kann ("synthetisch" heißt nicht etwa "frei erfunden", sondern Daten über Gebäude und Soziodemografie genügend, die auf relativ niedrigem räumlichen Niveau, aber nicht immer auf Mikro-ebene vorliegen) und (2) die Wärmenachfrage der einzelnen Gebäude mit einer hohen zeitlichen Auflösung unter Berücksichtigung von Haushaltscharakteristika simulieren kann. Das in der Arbeit entwickelte Modell stellt eine einfache städtische Umgebung mit Daten zu einzelnen Gebäuden dar, angereichert mit energetisch relevanten Parametern. Die synthetischen Haushalte, die auf die Gebäude alloziiert werden, entsprechen in Summe und Verteilung vorhandenen soziodemografischen Daten auf höherer Aggregationsebene. Diese Daten werden mit der bundesweiten deutschen Zeitbudgeterhebung angereichert, um Aktivitäten und vor allem Aufenthaltszeiten der Haushaltsmitglieder im Gebäude zu beschreiben. Das Modell ist intern validiert, d.h. der Mechanismus, der den synthetischen Gebäudebestand und die synthetische Population erzeugt, wird in seiner Wirkung mit den aggregierten Ausgangsdaten verglichen. Das primäre Maß für diese Validierung ist der Total Absolute Error (T AE). – Eine externe Validierung des Modells war aufgrund fehlender Verbrauchsdaten in der Breite noch nicht möglich. Die Forschergemeinde arbeitet jedoch daran, solche Datenbanken zu erzeugen und zur Verfügung zu stellen. Die Nutzung der Methode der Spatial Microsimulation ermöglichte die Projektion des Gebäudebestands ins Jahr 2030 ohne großen modell- und datentechnischen Aufwand. Dasselbe gilt für die in dieser Arbeit vorgenommene Skalierung des Modells auf die nationale Ebene. Die Übertragbarkeit des Modells auf andere geografische Gebiete sowie seine Anwendung auf andere Forschungsfragen (z.B. asserverbräuche oder Sanitärtechnik) scheint vielversprechend. ; Motivation for the thesis is the need for coordinating urban planning and energy planning. The emissions of the building sector can be reduced by the spatial coordination of building energy demand and building energy supply, e.g. via the spatial prioritization of building energy retrofits, the creation of heating grids and the integration of waste heat sources into the supply. As heat transport is associated with losses, the spatial constellation of heat sinks and sources are highly relevant for supply concepts. That is why a better understanding of the spatial distribution of heat consumption is needed – that is, real heat consumption, not computed heat demand based on physical building characteristics. Heat consumption can differ as much as 50% or more from pre-calculated heat demands. It is the building users and their behavior and presence times that account for this spread. As heat supply and electric power supply are increasingly integrated, and as there is a trend towards smaller heating grids, the temporal distribution of urban heat demand, too, becomes more interesting. There is little systematic analysis of this as of yet. This is where the present dissertation is making a contribution? Aim of the thesis is to develop a model capable of simulating heat demand at the micro scale (i.e. for individual buildings) in its spatial-temporal spread for large urban agglomerations. This requires: (1) individual building models, (2) the explicit consideration of human behavior in estimating heat consumption and (3) the simulation of a large number of different buildings defining an urban area. Towards this objective, the thesis uses methods from different disciplines : (a) spatial microsimulation (microsimulation originated in economics and has been taken up in geography and the social sciences which enriched it with the spatial dimension), (b) building simulation which traces energy flows in buildings (traditionally anchored in building physics and technical thermodynamics) and (c) the classification of the building stock, and allocation of types onto buildings in various data sets (practiced by many authors, e. g. in engineering and economics, for evaluation of policy measures addressing the building stock). The main result of this thesis is a model which can (1) generate a synthetic building stock with households residing in buildings (whereby "synthetic" does not mean "invented", but rather, satisfying data on buildings and socio-demographics available at a certain (low) level of aggregation, but not at the micro-level) (2) simulate heat demand of individual buildings at high temporal resolution, taking explicit consideration of socio-demographic characteristics of building users. The model developed in the thesis represents a simple urban environment containing geo-referenced buildings enriched with energy relevant parameters. The synthetic households which are allocated to the buildings do match, in sum and distribution of socio-demographic parameters, household data available at a certain level of aggregation. These household data are enriched with national German time use survey data in order to specify activities and occupancy times of household members. The model is validated internally, meaning that the results of the mechanism which generates the synthetic stock and the synthetic population is checked against the aggregated data on which the building and population allocation process started. The primary metric used for this validation is the Total Absolute Error (T AE). It was not possible, at this point, to validate the mechanism externally, as there were too few heat consumption data for this purpose. Consumption data, however, are urgently needed in this field, and there is work in the scientific community to produce this type of data and make it accessible to the research community. Using the spatial microsimulation approach made it possible, in this thesis, to project the building stock into the year 2030, without major effort on data collection or model structure. The same applies for scaling the model to the national level, which was also done in this thesis. The applicability of the model to other geographical areas and research questions (e. g., concerning water consumption or building sanitation technology) seems promising.

The challenges to achieving universal health coverage (UHC) are obvious yet vast in their scope: leading these is a lack of strong primary health care (PHC) systems and a global shortage of well-trained health care professionals. Addressing these challenges is paramount, as it is well-trained health care professionals who will build the strong PHC systems that are necessary for UHC. Due to the continuing spread and evolution of information and communications technology (ICT) in health care and education, ICT should be considered as an essential tool for innovative primary health care education. Many nations face a distinct lack of UHC, grossly unequal health services and an acute shortage of suitably qualified family doctors, nurses and allied health care professionals that constitute the primary health care team. It is estimated that by 2035, the world will have a shortage of 12.9 million health care professionals, however an additional 1.9 billion people will require health care. Recruiting, educating and retaining these primary health care teams is therefore fundamental to meet ongoing demands. Family doctors contribute to high quality, cost-effective and accessible primary health care. However, PHC faces considerable challenges, including a preference from policymakers, the public, and members of the health care community for specialisation. Specialist-focused care may be attractive, but it is often economically unsustainable and absorbs resources that are necessary for PHC. Yet, cooperation between primary and secondary care is essential for delivering the best care to patients and communities. It should not be a matter of choosing between primary and secondary care, but rather of recognising and adequately supporting the unique attributes and skillsets that each has to offer. Family medicine lies at the heart of primary health care. The key to producing skilled family doctors is good family medicine training, particularly at a postgraduate level. There is great potential to improve the scale and quality of family medicine training, starting with exposure to the field as early as possible. For the delivery of primary care to be effective – and lead to the achievement of universal health coverage – the composition of the primary care team should reflect the demography and health needs of the local population. Thus, the composition of the primary care team will differ from location to location, depending on the age/sex/ health needs of the local population. Family doctors and all of the PHC professionals should have a set of universal core skills, in addition to skills specific to the population and geography they serve. To provide effective care, health professionals need to understand the importance of social factors in influencing population health; therefore, training curricula must be adapted to local contexts Career development through postgraduate training strongly motivates health professionals to stay in their own localities, as well as being vital for patient safety and improved outcomes. Yet, despite a thirst for postgraduate training among family doctors and other primary health care professionals, it is often difficult to access. ICT may be used to address recruitment and retention issues by providing easily accessible and good quality education. This report examines a key question: Can ICT facilitate the education of PHC professionals worldwide in order to address the challenges facing PHC and UHC? Through in-depth literature reviews, analysis, and targeted interviews with key experts, the report concludes that ICT can indeed support, enhance and accelerate the education of the primary health care team's members, in six key ways: 1. It is an effective means of developing workforce capacity. By overcoming geographical barriers and supplementing traditional instruction with online delivery from international and regional tutors, ICT can substantially increase health care professionals' access to postgraduate education without the need for travel, thus helping to avoid disruption to healthcare delivery. 2. It helps to recruit and retain professionals. E-learning overcomes issues of access and isolation, and can be done flexibly to suit the learner. By providing access to specialist support, postgraduate courses and mentoring opportunities, e-learning and telehealth encourage in-country and rural retention of health care workers. 3. It is cost-saving. Traditional models of health professional education are expensive, both for the provider and for health care professionals. Developing ICT solutions may entail high initial costs but these are reduced over time, and with more users, achieve economies of scale. 4. It facilitates social and collaborative learning which has been shown to have the greatest impact on patient outcomes. A blend of synchronous and asynchronous e-learning is likely to be the most effective way of achieving interprofessional learning. Communities of practice are encouraged using ICT and social media, reducing professional isolation and improving collaboration. 5. It can help to bring contextualised care to where it is needed. For example, simulation-based medical education enables problem-based, interactive and contextualised learning. End-user (including patient) participation is paramount when designing ICT-based educational programmes. 6. It improves the quality of care by facilitating access to evidence-based medicine and reflective learning. Email alerts can support education by reaching a large audience and providing trustworthy information tailored to individual needs; social media can aid in streamlining vast amounts of information into a small number of tailored-to-the-individual articles; blogs and electronic portfolios can encourage reflective life-long learning. Capturing these opportunities will require stakeholders to consider the following: a) Securing political and financial support to establish and maintain strong PHC systems b) Adopting a collaborative interprofessional approach between health professionals, from medical school through to the workplace c) Providing education and training relevant to the context and to user needs d) Improving recruitment and retention through training e) Encouraging the standardisation and accreditation of health professional education f) Investing in ICT training for learners, educators and patients g) Planning and developing programmes that use technology meaningfully to improve care quality, cost-effectiveness, accessibility, equity and patient safety h) Recognise and consolidate the interdependence of all the health professionals in the PHC setting.

Contexto y perfil de un proyecto alternativo a las diferentes propuestas de carretera entre Caldas y Tolima desarrolladas por el Invías, como lo es el Corredor Bimodal Cafetero, un proyecto de infraestructura estratégica inscrito en el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2014/2018. Se presentan los impactos de dicho Corredor Bimodal, conformado por un tren de montaña de 150 km que parte de La Dorada, transita por el Norte del Tolima y llega a Manizales en el Km 41, y por una carretera de primer orden que sale del poniente de Manizales, pasa por Fresno y llega a Honda; ambos cruzando la Cordillera Central por el Norte de Cerro Bravo con el Túnel Cumaday, obra subterránea de 17 km a 2200 msnm cuyo autosoporte se logra gracias las rocas estables del Stock de Manizales

Ponencia del Museo Interactivo Samoga de la U.N. de Colombia, para el FORO: Turismo y Cultura, programado en la Universidad Católica de Manizales UCM. Manizales 30 -11- 2018. Este documento ofrece elementos para dos instrumentos fundamentales: Una Política Pública coordinada a nivel regional, departamental y municipal, y un Plan Maestro de Turismo con enfoque socio-ambiental, para Caldas.

Ten years after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Kazakhstan and Indonesia, a new connectivity initiative was unveiled with great fanfare by the United States, India, and the Arab Gulf and European countries during the G20 meeting in New Delhi earlier this month.Since the announcement was made without the presence of the Russian and Chinese presidents, it has stirred conflicting interpretations. Some see it as a potential alternative to BRI, while others, pointing to the failure of similar projects backed by Western powers in the past, view it as a paper tiger.Details are still missing, but the project's ambition is enormous. It follows a transregional approach as noted by the White House statement: "Through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), we aim to usher in a new era of connectivity with a railway, linked through ports connecting Europe, the Middle East, and Asia."The idea of this corridor dates back to 2021 and has also been discussed as part of the I2U2 group that includes India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States. Like the BRI, its design vision follows the corridor's logic. This is no surprise. "Corridorization" is the most significant spatial manifestation of infrastructural capitalism and geo-economics since the beginning of this century.Corridorization, which is part of the thriving "minilateralism" space, could be viewed as contradictory because middle powers are trying to navigate between two hardening geopolitical blocs. But the ongoing process of reshaping the global supply chain connectivities created by decades of globalization could make it a viable proposition.The BRI and the IMEC seem to share many similar goals. But there are also critical geographical differences. Most importantly, the new initiative features India, which has never been part of the BRI, as a central cross-regional player amid rearranged geo-imaginations.Each of the parties to the new initiative comes with its own perspective and interest.For the United States, the I2U2 and IMEC serve as platforms for infrastructure investment, bringing together Middle Eastern and South Asian partners and providing an alternative to Chinese projects. Washington sees this approach as an opportunity to encourage its regional partners to take a more active and independent role in shaping the region's future, allowing the United States to reduce its own resource investment while maintaining its presence and influence.For the UAE and Saudi Arabia, the goal is to strengthen their increasingly diversified and multi-networked economic diplomacy covering a wider geography. Both countries are active members of the BRI, and their cooperation with China is growing. Apart from burgeoning trade, they are dialogue partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and will soon become full members of the expanded BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Both countries are trying to expand their strategic autonomy and vying to become influential regional and international players. Getting involved in multiple new minilateral groupings is a key ingredient of their approach to strengthening their middle power status.As Saudi Arabia opens to the world with a tilt towards China, the UAE has found its new unique selling point in connectivity and multi-alignment. While diverging approaches toward geostrategic and regional issues, particularly China's rising power and global influence, remain a concern, Gulf Arab countries' participation in U.S.-led initiatives reflects their new penchant for equidistance amid U.S.-China competition.Indeed, the United States might see the IMEC as a vehicle to counter China's growing influence in the region. In the Middle East, however, competition and convergence are mixed and less black and white than the increasing U.S.-China bipolarity would suggest. If the United States expects this to be a "counter BRI" move for the region, it will likely be disappointed. Competition in the Indian Ocean could escalate, but potential synergies and convergencies should allow for some degree of mutual accommodation.India, which the United States treats as an "indispensable partner," has been showcasing a good template of multi-alignment for others to follow. It is a member of the Quad and I2U2, both comprising the United States, and it's also a member of BRICS and SCO, with China in both, despite New Delhi's feud with Beijing over border issues. The IMEC adds another thread to its longstanding multi-alignment policy, as it highlights the other connectivity corridor that India is promoting — the International North South Transport Corridor — with Iran and Russia. Together, these projects add value to India's development story and its boast that it is the fastest growing economy in the world.The new economic corridor also envisions the potential addition of Israel. This should be seen as a step in the renewed U.S. efforts to expand the Abraham Accords by facilitating the normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations. This form of regional engagement also allows Israel to manage tensions with the United States, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia in the wake of the politics of a far-right coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.For Israel and the United States, expanding the Abraham Accords, especially to include Saudi Arabia, remains a top priority despite Riyadh's insistence on linking the normalization of relations to progress on the two-state solution. There are tentative indications that Netanyahu might agree to some concessions on the Palestinian front, even at the cost of his right-wing coalition falling apart, in order to capitalize and sustain Israel's broader regional integration.For China, which will soon host the first in-person BRI summit in Beijing after major COVID-19 shutdowns, IMEC throws up a challenge and an opportunity. It could dismissively treat the IMEC like the United States has done with the BRI. The other option, as indicated soon after the G20 meeting, is to demonstrate its openness to support multidirectional connectivity, even if it is not part of this corridor, as long as such projects are "open, inclusive, and form synergy," and do not become "geopolitical tools."The last piece in this new connectivity saga would be Europe, especially the Eastern Mediterranean countries. The IMEC is a welcome development because the "Global Gateway," the European Union's own connectivity project, has not gained adequate momentum because European diplomats in Brussels are hesitant about multi-alignment strategies and transregional corridors.While the IMEC is an economic-diplomatic-security interplay, its prospects will depend on its ability to promote connectivity and translate its economic potential into commercial success. Critics have already pointed out that the initiative may be unviable in terms of profit. However, it could also be argued that there are virtues other than economic efficiency. In a world of de-risking and politically induced supply chain shifts, the new corridor could be viewed as a tool for promoting strategic resilience, friendshoring, and tech cooperation, especially for middle powers.

Propuestas para el PND 2014-2018, presentadas a la Comisión Sexta de La Cámara a nombre de la U.N. - SMP Manizales, bajo la tesis de que "sin el concurso del sistema férreo, el beneficio de recuperar la navegación en el Magdalena resultaría inocuo", en las que se contempla la articulación del Corredor Férreo del Cauca -extendido a Urabá-, con la Hidrovía del Magdalena, y la extensión del Tren Andino mediante la recuperación del tren Facatativá - Salgar y la construcción del Ferrocarril Cafetero

Nous assistons actuellement au peuplement des zones périurbaines de la planète par des centaines de millions d'individus. Cette évolution pose de redoutables problèmes et des difficultés inédites pour les politiques publiques. Si les effets de la périurbanisation sont relativement bien connus dans les pays du Nord, les analyses dédiées aux pays du Sud sont bien moins développées. L'ouvrage « Territoires périurbains : développement, enjeux et perspectives dans les pays du Sud » permet de lever un coin du voile sur cette problématique et sur les grands défis que la périurbanisation pose pour le Sud en général et pour l'Afrique centrale en particulier. L'ouvrage débute en cherchant à clarifier ce qu'il faut exactement entendre par « territoire périurbain ». À la suite de cette mise en contexte, il se poursuit par cinq parties organisées autour des problématiques des ressources naturelles, de la sécurité alimentaire, de la santé publique, des services publics et de l'aménagement des territoires. Pour chacune de ces problématiques, des chercheurs spécialisés issus de disciplines variées apportent des contributions qui, tout en soulignant l'ampleur des défis, permettent la mise en avant de solutions innovantes pour améliorer la gouvernance et le bien-être des populations. Cet ouvrage s'adresse d'abord aux chercheurs préoccupés par les défis du développement. En parallèle, par les pistes pour l'action publique qu'il esquisse, il ne manquera pas d'également intéresser les décideurs et les praticiens qui opèrent dans le contexte des territoires périurbains des pays du Sud.

En el norte de la Patagonia argentina, más precisamente en el Alto Valle , se ha desarrollado un sistema urbano-rural en el cual una ciudad ha sobresalido del resto en las últimas décadas, la ciudad de Neuquén. En torno a ella se ha manifestado un proceso de conurbación cuyo centro está conformado por esta ciudad, capital de la provincia de Neuquén, y la ciudad de Cipolletti centro de mayor relevancia de la provincia de Río Negro perteneciente a este bloque. Ambas se presentan como una unidad urbana a partir de la cual se han evidenciado importantes procesos de expansión urbana. Esta conurbación presenta una gran concentración de servicios, capital, tecnologías, transportes e infraestructura en general y un peso y densidad poblacional muy superior al del resto de las áreas urbanas del Alto Valle. Esa dinámica poblacional y económica trajo aparejados inconvenientes para esta zona. Los más notables son los conflictos sociales ante una elevada presión sobre el uso de suelo, la pérdida de tierra agrícola ante la expansión urbana y la especulación del negocio inmobiliario, así como el asentamiento de personas en áreas de riesgo y problemas de circulación de las personas. Ante este contexto la presente tesis tiene como objetivo principal analizar características territoriales, demográficas, ambientales y de movilidad urbana de dicha conurbación con el propósito de ofrecer aportes orientados a la formulación de propuestas de ordenamiento territorial. En consecuencia, la investigación intenta dar un panorama general del desarrollo del área urbana de la conurbación para identificar disfuncionalidades o conflictos que atentan contra un desarrollo urbano armónico. Algunas preguntas que surgen desde el inicio de la investigación han permitido guiar el camino en esta tarea: ¿Qué cambios afectaron a la conurbación en torno a la ciudad de Neuquén? ¿De qué manera la afectaron? ¿Cuál es la magnitud de los problemas generados? ¿Cuáles son las nuevas características de esta área urbana y sus tendencias futuras? ¿Cómo abordar y explicar esas problemáticas generadas? ¿Cuáles serían las propuestas más óptimas para resolver estas dificultades? El desarrollo de la investigación se ha segmentado en 10 capítulos, el primero de ellos se presenta como una introducción a todo el documento, el capitulo 2 desarrolla los principales conceptos de la ciencia geográfica que serán tenidos en cuenta en adelante, los mismos parten de considerar a la geografía como una ciencia social centrada en el estudio del espacio geográfico y sus tiempos. A partir de este nivel conceptual se orientan las reflexiones que involucran conceptos como el de región que permitirá entender de manera más apropiada la dinámica de la conurbación neuquina, para luego avanzar sobre conceptos e ideas empíricas cercanas al proceso de urbanización, a los modelos de las plantas urbanas, a la movilidad urbana y a los problemas ambientales. El tercer capítulo detalla la metodología utilizada para la indagación y búsqueda de resultados. No es sólo una enumeración de actividades, sino que se explica de manera asociada al marco teórico y a ciertos conceptos clave, el cómo será la investigación en cuanto a técnicas y procedimientos. En el capítulo 4 se analiza de manera un tanto detallada las condiciones del medio natural que influyen en el asentamiento urbano del área de estudio. Es decir que este apartado no es una descripción exhaustiva del marco natural, es una búsqueda de los condicionantes que permiten o dificultan el surgimiento de áreas urbanas. Así se trabaja principalmente sobre las geoformas o unidades geomorfológicas atendiendo a los procesos naturales que se manifiestan en cada una de ellas y cómo influyen en la actualidad en el desarrollo urbano y en la vida de las personas que habitan la ciudad. El capítulo 5 realiza una auténtica periodización urbana de la zona del Alto Valle, ya que la mayoría de las que podemos encontrar en los textos referidos a la zona están en sintonía económica o determinadas a partir de cortes arbitrarios, sin debidas evaluaciones teórico metodológicas. El capítulo 6 se encuentra muy en sintonía con la concepción de región, a esta altura de la investigación ya se hace necesario identificar algunos límites de la conurbación en torno a la ciudad de Neuquén. Se trata de establecer algunas precisiones en torno a estos aspectos dejando en claro que esos límites no son rígidos y que están identificados en función de los objetivos de esta investigación. Es así que el análisis se basará en algunas variables y luego en capítulos posteriores se avanzará en profundidad sobre otras. En primer lugar, y haciendo honor a la disciplina, se analiza la situación desde el punto de vista espacial (relacionada con la expansión de las áreas urbanas, particularmente sobre áreas agrícolas), para posteriormente trabajar sobre la variable poblacional y finalmente la funcional. En el capítulo 7 se intenta comparar y aplicar diversos indicadores de flujos vehiculares al ámbito de la conurbación neuquina comentando las potencialidades y falencias de cada uno. Tales indicadores son parte de un conjunto más amplio de información base que, tratada debidamente, nos ayuda a comprender como son las características de la movilidad espacial de las personas en este espacio urbano. Los resultados de la aplicación de los indicadores nombrados manifiestan un incremento de los flujos vehiculares en torno a los tramos de rutas más cercanos a la ciudad de Neuquén y a la vez expresan una cierta centralidad de esta ciudad en todo el conjunto de la conurbación. Esto repercute en la generación de problemas en cuanto a cuestiones viales y de transporte de las personas; cuestiones que deben ser tenidas en cuenta por parte de los decisores políticos a la hora de implementar acciones para un mejor ordenamiento territorial. El recorrido realizado en los apartados anteriores hizo posible la identificación de diferentes problemas ambientales que fueron trabajados en el capítulo 8. Algunos de éstos repetidos en los diferentes municipios, otros puntuales y específicos y otros que afectan de manera integral al sistema. Se destacan así los inconvenientes generados a partir de la instalación de viviendas en áreas de riesgo y la contaminación ambiental generada por efluentes, residuos sólidos urbanos y los generados a partir de la actividad petrolera. El capítulo 9 plantea como resultado del recorrido de la investigación algunas posibles acciones a realizar para la mitigación o solución de los principales inconvenientes detectados en la conurbación. Algunas de estas acciones están referidas a problemas teóricos o metodológicos en el entendimiento de los problemas por parte de las autoridades de gobierno, como el abordaje parcializado de los problemas ya sea en forma espacial o temática. Otras acciones propuestas son más directas como la de limitar la expansión urbana y favorecer una mayor densidad de uso del suelo urbano de algunos sectores. Otro tipo de propuestas hacen mención a las funciones o funcionamiento de la conurbación proponiendo nuevas centralidades, una mejora en la circulación a partir de esto, además de sugerir una diversificación y fortalecimiento de ciertos tipos de movilidad urbana. Por último el capítulo 10, arriba a unas conclusiones o reflexiones finales de la investigación que dejan ciertas certezas pero que también abren la puerta a nuevos temas y nuevas formas de estudiar esta conurbación en torno a la ciudad de Neuquén. ; In the north of the Patagonia Argentina, more precisely in the Alto Valle , a rural-urban system has developed, in which Neuquén city has outstood from the rest during the last decades. Around it, a conurbation process has occurred, whose center is comprised by Neuquén city, which is the capital city of Neuquén province, and Cipolletti city, the most important city in Río Negro province. Both cities are presented as an urban unit from which important processes of urban expansion have been evidenced. This conurbation presents a great concentration of services, capital, technologies, transport and infrastructure in general; and has a much higher population density and proportion compared to those of other urban areas of the Alto Valle. This economic and population dynamic brought with it several drawbacks in the area, of which the most notable are the social conflicts due to a high pressure over land use, the loss of agricultural land due to urban expansion, the speculation of the property business, the settlement of people in risk areas and, problems with the circulation of people. In this context, the present thesis aims at analyzing the territorial, demographic, environmental and urban mobility characteristics of such conurbation, with the purpose of offering contributions aimed at the formulation of land-use zoning proposals. In consequence, the research attempts to bring an overview of the development of the urban area of the conurbation to identify dysfunctions or conflicts threating harmonious urban development. The following questions arising from the beginning of the study have allowed framing it within such objectives: Which changes affected conurbation around the city of Neuquén, and in which ways? What is the magnitude of the generated problems? What are the new characteristics of this urban area, and its future trends? How to address and explain the generated issues? Which would be the most adequate proposals for resolving these issues? The investigation has been divided in 10 chapters, of which the first is an introduction of the whole document. Chapter 2 develops the main concepts of geographic science that are taken up in the text, on the basis of geography as a social science centered in the study of the geographic space and its times. From this conceptual level the reflections involving concepts such as region are oriented, which allows a more appropriate understanding of the conurbation dynamic in Neuquén, to then move forward over concepts and empirical ideas that are close to the urbanization process, urban plant models, urban mobility and environmental problems. The third chapter details the methodology used for the inquiry and search of results. The chapter is not only an enumeration of activities, but it rather explains the techniques and proceedings of the research associated to the theoretical framework and certain key concepts. In chapter 4, the environmental conditions influencing the urban settlements in the study area are analyzed in detail. Instead of an exhaustive description of the natural framework, this chapter aims at identifying the conditioning factors that allow or hamper the emergence of urban areas. Thus, it is mainly focused on the geoforms or geomorphological units, with emphasis on the natural processes that arise in each unit, and their present influence over urban development and livelihoods of the inhabitants. Chapter 5 performs an actual urban periodization of the area of Alto Valle, since most of those available in the literature of the area are in tune with the economy or determined from arbitrary cuts, with no theoretical-methodological evaluations. Chapter 6 is much in tune with the conception of region, and at this stage of the research emerged theneed to identify the boundaries of the conurbation around Neuquén city. Efforts are put in establishing certain precisions with regard to these aspects, making it clear that these boundaries are not rigid and that they are identified based on the objectives of this research. Thus, the analysis is based in certain variables, while the following chapters will move towards other variables. Firstly, and living up to the field, the situation is analyzed from a spatial point of view (related with the expansion of urban areas, particularly over agricultural areas), to posteriorly focus on the population variable, and finally on the functional variable. Chapter 7 aims at comparing and applying several indicators of traffic flow to the scope of the conurbation in Neuquén, discussing the potential and flaws of each one. Such indicators are part of a wider set of base-information that, if properly treated, can help us understand the spatial mobility characteristics of people in this urban space. The results of the application of the mentioned indicators show an increase in the traffic flow around the legs of the route that are closer to Neuquén city; and also denote a certain centrality of the city in the whole conurbation ensemble. This has direct impact on problems related to roads and the transportation of people; issues which must be taken into account by policymakers when implementing actions for a better land-use planning. The process described above allowed for the identification of different environmental issues that were treated in chapter 8. Some of these were generalized in several municipalities, others were more specific and punctual, and others affected the system as a whole. Some of the most important were drawbacks generated from the installation of housing in risk areas and environmental contamination generated by effluents, solid urban waste and waste generated by oil activity. Chapter 9 proposes certain actions to be taken for the mitigation or solution of the main drawbacks detected in the conurbation, as a result of the whole research. Some of these actions refer to theoretical or methodological problems in the understanding of the whole issue by government authorities, such as their biased approach, either spatial or thematic, of such problems. Other proposed actions are more direct, such as the suggestion of limiting urban expansion and favoring a higher density of urban use of land in certain sectors. Other type of proposals make reference to the functions or functioning of the conurbation, suggesting new centralities and a consequent improvement in the circulation; and a diversification and strengthening of other types of urban mobility. Finally, chapter 10 addresses the conclusions and final thoughts of this research, identifying several certainties but also gateways towards new themes, and ways of tackling this conurbation around Neuquén city. ; . ; Facultad de Humanidades y Ciencias de la Educación

Iceland s population of approximately fifty thousand inhabitants did not change appreciably from the end of the settlement period in the late twelfth century until the mid-nineteenth century because of the climate and limited technology in agriculture and fisheries. In fact, periodic decreases resulted from climatic fluctuations, natural disasters and epidemics, since this was a primitive rural community of farmers and fishermen. The weakness of the urban community was so apparent that when the royal monopoly on domestic trade was abolished by law in 1788, new migrants from selected villages to urban communities1 were offered public subsidies, such as free lots and tax dispensation for twenty years. Despite this government intervention, the growth of the urban population, especially in the capital city, did not manifest until early in the twentieth century following technological developments, such as the advent of motor vessels, banks, and certain infrastructure investments. That is probably because the Danish authorities and Icelanders were not unanimous in their policies and actions. The growth of the urban population was followed by a decline in the rural population. This trend increased after World War II, and at the beginning of the 1980s, the population of the urban areas outside the capital area2 began to decline as well, especially those populations that were farthest away from Reykjavík and Akureyri, the second-largest urban community outside the capital area. The present research s objective is to investigate whether transportation improvements affect inter-regional migration in Iceland. This thesis is divided into three main parts. First, a brief introduction describes the development of the transportation system in Iceland, especially the road network, and geographic population patterns in the twentieth century. The second part covers fundamental theories of transportation economics and spatial economics, especially regarding transport demand, the geographic pattern of housing prices, theories of industrial location, and interregional migration. The third part reports on an empirical investigation that is in line with the objective of the thesis. Many factors motivate migration. Geographic differentials in labour market conditions were among the first factors addressed by economic theory in the context of spatial economics and were still among the central factors when amenities, local factors of value offered free or relatively inexpensively to the local population, were included several years ago. Amenities include natural resources, public services and social activities, while negative amenities or dis-amenities include local phenomena, attributes, incidents or threats, including crime and pollution that decrease the welfare of the local population without compensation. One theory has suggested amenities compensate for lower wages; since people tend to like places with good weather conditions, beautiful scenery, and other amenities, these places tend to generate an excess supply of labour, and wages decrease, while wages are higher where amenities are more limited. The New Economic Geography is the most recent theory covering interregional migration, where the core-periphery model is central. According to the model, the agglomeration economies are among the main reasons for rural-to-urban migration, through higher real wages. Moreover, lifetime earnings instead of present wages are addressed as more relevant. Uncertainty is included as well. One version of the core-periphery model includes social capital and traffic congestion. Transportation economics is a large field within economics. Here, transport demand is relevant to the study topic so the theoretical presentation of transportation economics will be devoted to that only. Unlike many others types of demand, transportation demand is a derived demand since it is the demand for any other goods that is, people travel to work, trade, and go shopping. Otherwise, transportation demand is comparable to demand for other values or goods where price, income, and the price of supplementary and complementary goods play a central role. The dissertation s empirical contribution will be divided into three parts and therefore classified into three separate chapters. First, we investigate the relationship between transportation improvements and local housing prices because housing prices reflect the value of locations. Second, we measure whether and to what degree rural residents value agglomeration and access to a central business district (CBD)3. Finally, we examine whether transportation improvements affect interregional migration. The empirical part of the study is based on data from Iceland that covers annual averages for Iceland s 79 municipalities for nearly two decades the period from 1981-2006. Many municipalities were merged during this period with the result that the relevant data for all the years were classified according to the number of municipalities in the year 2006 in order to maintain comparability of data. Panel data models are implemented for analysis. They combine the analysis of cross section and time series simultaneously that is an analysis of number of individuals or municipalities over time. One can choose between fixed and random effect in the analysis of panel data, where the coefficients of the fixed effect model include a variation within municipalities, while coefficients of random effect include both within and between variations. The estimation of the relationship between transportation improvements and housing prices is based on a relatively new interpretation of Johan Heinrich von Thünen s (1783-1850) theory regarding land rent: housing prices tend to be highest in the centre of a CBD because of the significance of the market, and they decrease for every unit of distance from the centre. However, the theory also suggests that transportation improvements between a CBD and a rural area increase housing prices in the rural areas because of easier access to the CBD. Where the variation of transportation improvements is to be found between all municipalities and Reykjavík, a model of fixed effect was found to be relevant. The analysis of Iceland confirms that the relationship between transportation improvements and housing prices is non-linear that is, the marginal impact, which is largest in the municipalities adjacent to the CBD, decreases as the distance between the municipality and the CBD increases. This result shows that the impact of transportation improvements on local housing prices increases marginally as the distance between a district and a CBD decreases. Several other known factors, such as the supply of housing, had an expected negative impact on housing prices, while the number of rooms, balconies, garages, and parking had positive impacts. Until the present study, an analysis of this theory had not been implemented on an entire country. Along with heterogeneous marginal impact, these were the major contributions of this particular empirical study. The value of access was estimated by testing whether the spatial disparity of housing prices in Iceland, especially the difference between CBDs and rural areas, had changed during the past two decades. If it had changed, we tested whether the change was a result of increased agglomeration of economies or a result of changing preferences for access over amenity values. Again, the analysis is based on a modern version of von Thünen s theory concerning the forces behind the spatial disparity of housing prices, along with theories of agglomeration economies. Now, a model of random effect, returning coefficients including both within and between variations, was relevant since local amenities have to be considered in an evaluation of access and agglomeration economies. The results suggest that the spatial disparity of housing prices changed in favour of CBDs in Iceland and that changed preferences in favour of access over amenities were responsible that is, access became relatively more valuable. These changes were also due to increased agglomeration economies, but further inspection shows that the differences in housing prices between Reykjavík and the closest neighbouring municipalities decreased, despite previous findings. Weak evidence suggests that this decreased difference could be due to counter-urbanisation, a relatively new phenomenon in which certain types of urban citizens move from urban areas to rural areas within a 120-kilometre radius. This phenomenon has been detected both in North America and Europe. The many reasons for this phenomenon can generally be classified into economic factors and changed preferences such as proximity to wild nature (absence of pollution) and traditional farming. In the present study, as in the previous one, several other known factors have had an expected impact on housing prices. These factors include labour income, supply of housing, housing age, dwelling size, number of rooms per dwelling, balconies, garages, parking, and number of dwellings in the same house. Finally, the impact of transportation improvements on interregional migration was tested. The empirical model is based on the neo-classical Harris-Todaro model. The results suggest that geographic differentials in labour market conditions, such as wages and unemployment, play a leading role in explaining interregional migration, but the supply of housing and transportation improvements also affects interregional migration. While the supply of housing seemed to have had a positive impact on interregional migration, transportation improvements between the rural and urban areas did not have a homogeneous impact on interregional migration in the relevant regions, where it was negative towards its closest regions of the rural area and positive towards regions farther away. The first result is in line with the theory of the New Economic Geography (or the Core-Periphery Model), suggesting that a transportation improvement between two different regions would result in a net flow of residents from the smaller to the larger region, due to better market access and agglomeration economies. Certain types of industries (firms in monopolistic competition) will disappear from the smaller region and grow in the larger region. The latter is in line with the Disequilibrium and Harris-Todaro models, suggesting that transportation improvements lead to positive net inflows of migrants because of higher real wages following lower transport costs. Since the overall results indicate that selected factors are missing in the model, the analysis was repeated for men and women separately. The results then showed that the model was better in explaining the migration behaviour of women rather than men. The condition of the labour market seemed to matter more to women than men. This is a logical result to some extent, since it has been shown in other studies that the gender wage gap is larger in rural areas of Iceland than in urban areas. The supply of housing was affecting the migration patterns of both genders, while travel time, surprisingly, did not show any significance. Weak results for the migration pattern of men fuelled the idea that it should be tested against the migration pattern of women. Thus, if women would leave for better income, according to Gary Becker s results that show singles are generally less well off than married people and other couples, the expected future welfare of single men would be lowered. With this in mind, the most logical response by single men would be to follow single women, since men are indifferent regarding other potential factors affecting migration. A new variable for reflecting changes in the local gender ratio (number of women divided by number of men) in the previous period was added to the model and confirmed the hypothesis. Moreover, travel time also became significant for men, and the overall robustness of the model increased. Therefore, travel time seems to impact the interregional pattern of men but not women. ; Hin mikla fjölgun íbúa á höfuðborgarsvæðinu og fækkun til sveita á Íslandi var tilefni þessarar rannsóknar. Þjóðinni fjölgaði lítið fram á miðja 19. öld, en íbúafjöldi sveiflaðist öldum saman í kringum 50.000. Miðað við ríkjandi tæknistig virðast landbúnaður og sjávarútvegur ekki hafa geta brauðfætt fleiri íbúa og sveiflur í veðurfari, náttúruhamfarir og farsóttir lögðu grunninn að sveiflum í fjölda íbúa þannig að ekki var stór munur á íbúafjölda frá lokum landnámsaldarinnar fram á miðja 19. öld, eftir því sem komist verður næst. Þetta var frumstætt sveitasamfélag og mikill meirihluti bjó í strjálbýli. Myndun þéttbýlis var svo veik á Íslandi að sett voru lög árið 1788, þegar verslun var gefin frjálsari4, um styrki til þeirra sem settust að í völdum kaupstöðum þ.e. Reykjavík, Grundarfirði, Ísafirði, Akureyri, Eskifirði og Vestmannaeyjum. Styrkirnir fólust í ókeypis lóðum og 20 ára undanþágu frá sköttum svo eitthvað sé nefnt. Það var samt ekki fyrr en snemma á 20. öldinni eftir vélvæðinguna, fjárfestingu í innviðum, stofnun banka og annarra stofnana, að fólki fer að fækka til sveita og fjölga í þéttbýli um land allt en mest á höfuðborgarsvæðinu. Það kann að vera vegna þess að framan af voru ráðandi öfl ekki einhuga um eflingu þéttbýlis. Vöxtur þess varð síðan mjög ör eftir lok seinni heimstyrjaldarinnar og í upphafi 9. áratugarins fór íbúum að fækka í þéttbýlum utan höfuðborgarsvæðisins, einkum þeim sem fjærst voru Reykjavík og Akureyri. Rannsóknin er í þremur megin hlutum. Fyrst er stuttur inngangur sem varpar ljósi á hvernig samgöngukerfið, þó aðallega vegakerfið, íbúaþróun einstakra landsvæða og búferlaflutningar á Íslandi þróuðust á 20. öldinni. Þar á eftir kemur stór kafli um helstu kenningar og líkön innan samgönguhagfræði og svæðahagfræði. Innan svæðahagfræði er einkum horft til landfræðilegs breytileika á fasteignaverði, staðsetningar fyrirtækja og búferlaflutninga. Að lokum kemur hluti sem segir frá þremur mismunandi reynslurannsóknum (e. empirical studies). Samkvæmt kenningum hagfræðinnar hefur margt áhrif á búferlaflutninga. Oftast eru aðstæður á vinnumarkaði nefndar en skynvirði verður áberandi á síðari tímum. Skynvirði (e. amenity value) felst í staðbundnum gæðum sem auka velferð almennings án þess að hann borgi fyrir það markaðsvirði. Ýmis náttúrugæði, niðurgreidd og endurgjaldslaus þjónusta eða hreinlega félagsstarf hefur verið flokkað undir skynvirði. Þá hafa fræðimenn talað um neikvætt skynvirði (e. disamenity). Það eru staðbundnir þættir sem draga úr velferð íbúanna án þess að þeir fái fyrir það bætur. Glæpir og mengun hafa verið taldir þar á meðal. Athyglisverðar eru kenningar sem gengið hafa út á að laun séu almennt lægri á stöðum þar sem skynvirði er hátt. Það er útskýrt þannig að fólk laðist að stöðum sem bjóða upp á gott veðurfar eða önnur endurgjaldslaus gæði. Það eykur framboð vinnuafls og laun lækka. Að sama skapi eru laun óvenju há þar sem skynvirði er lágt. Nýjastar eru kenningar nýju- svæðahagfræðinnar (e. New Economic Geography), en þaðan er kjarna- jaðarlíkanið ættað. Þar á borgarhagræði stóran þátt í að laða íbúa úr sveit til borgar með hærri launum. Þá er einnig lögð meiri áhersla á ævitekjur fremur en laun á hverjum tíma. Einnig er svigrúm fyrir áhættu. Öll óvissa um afkomu dregur íbúa til svæða þar sem afkomuöryggi er meira. Í einu þessara líkana er félagsauði og umferðarþunga fundinn staður. Samgönguhagfræði er stórt svið. Hér er það eftirspurn eftir samgöngum sem tengdist viðfangsefni ritgerðarinnar og fræðilegum bakgrunni hennar því gerð skil. Það sem einkennir eftirspurn eftir samgöngum er að hún er afleidd þ.e. hún er afleiðing af eftirspurn eftir öðrum gæðum. Fólk ferðast í þeim tilgangi að versla og sækja vinnu og afþreyingu svo eitthvað sé nefnt. Að öðru leyti lýtur eftirspurn eftir samgöngum sömu lögmálum og eftirspurn eftir öðrum gæðum þar sem eigið verð, verð stuðnings- og staðkvæmdarvara og tekjur neytenda spila stórt hlutverk. Í þessari rannsókn var ætlunin að mæla hvort samgöngubætur hefðu áhrif á búferlaflutninga og hvernig. Þetta var gert í þremur skrefum. Fyrst með því að skoða áhrif samgöngubóta á fasteignaverð, þar sem fasteignaverð endurspeglar virði staða og staðsetninga. Í öðru lagi að meta þróun landfræðilegs breytileika fasteingaverðs og hvort í því fælist þróun á borgarhagræði og virði aðgengis að höfuðborginni. Að lokum meta áhrif samgöngubóta á búferlaflutninga með beinum hætti. Reynslurannsóknir ritgerðarinnar byggðu á gögnum frá Íslandi yfir öll sveitarfélög á landinu (79) í nærri tvo áratugi. Reiknuð voru ársmeðaltöl fyrir öll sveitarfélögin. Mörg sveitarfélög voru sameinuð á þessu tímabili en til að gæta samræmis voru allar tölur reiknaðar upp fyrir 79 sveitarfélög líkt og á síðasta ári í gagnasafninu, árið 2006. Líkönum fyrir tvívíð gögn (e. panel data) var beitt við greiningarnar. Þau greina líkön með þversniðs- og tímaraðagögn samtímis þ.e. yfir fjölda einstaklinga eða sveitarfélaga í mörg ár. Í greiningum tvívíðra gagna er í megin atriðum hægt að velja á milli líkans með föstum áhrifum annars vegar og tilviljunarkenndum áhrifum hins vegar. Líkan með föstum áhrifum skilar stuðlum sem endurspegla breytileika innan sveitarfélaga eingöngu, meðan líkan með tilviljunarkenndum áhrifum skilar breytileika innan sveitarfélaga og milli þeirra samtímis. Við mat á áhrifum samgöngubóta á fasteignaverð var stuðst við kenningu og líkan þýsks hagfræðings, Johan Heinrich von-Thünen (1783-1850), um landfræðilegt mynstur fasteignaverðs, þar sem það hefur tilhneigingu til að lækka út frá borgarmiðju vegna mikilvægis markaðarins. Þar sem breytileika á samgöngubótum var að finna á milli allra sveitarfélaga og Reykjavíkur skilaði líkan með föstum áhrifum niðurstöðum sem svöruðu rannsóknarspurningunni. Niðurstaða greiningarinnar staðfesti að samgöngubætur milli landsbyggðarinnar og höfuðborgarinnar hafa áhrif á fasteignaverð á landsbyggðinni til hækkunar. Sérstaða rannsóknarinnar fólst einkum í tvennu: Þessari greiningu hefur aldrei verið beitt á heilt land með þessum hætti og sýnt var fram á að áhrifin væru ekki einsleit. Þau voru mest næst höfuðborginni en fjara síðan smám saman út eftir því sem fjær dregur. Það gefur til kynna að áhrif samgöngubóta eru líklegastar til hafa mest áhrif á fasteignaverð ef þær eru sem næst höfuðborgarsvæðinu. Ýmsir aðrir vel þekktir þættir höfðu áhrif á fasteignaverð eins og búist var við. Þeir helstu voru að framboð íbúða hafði neikvæð áhrif á verð íbúða á meðan stærð þeirra, fjöldi herbergja, svalir, bílskúr og bílastæði höfðu marktæk jákvæð áhrif á verð þeirra. Þá var aðgengi dreifbýlis að borgum metið. Það var gert með því að kanna hvort munur á fasteignaverði í Reykjavík og annarra landsvæða hafi aukist á síðastliðnum 20 árum. Ef það var tilfellið, var ætlunin að meta hvort það fælist í auknu virði á aðgengi vegna breyttra óska almennings um aukið aðgengi að fjölbreyttu úrvali þjónustu og atvinnu eða aukins þéttbýlishagræðis (e. agglomeration economies) vegna aukinnar almennrar hægræðingar af nábýli við annað fólk og fyrirtæki. Að þessu sinni var stuðst við nútíma útfærslu á kenningum von-Thünens um drifkrafta á landfræðilegum breytileika fasteignaverðs og kenninga um þéttbýlishagræði. Nú var líkan með tilviljunarkenndum áhrifum viðeigandi, þar sem aðgengi togast á við skynvirði en slík verðmæti mælast aðallega með breytileika gagnanna milli sveitarfélaga og breytileiki innan þeirra er síðan nauðsynlegur til að gefa fullnægjandi mynd af virði borgarhagræðis. Í greiningunni kom fram að munurinn á fasteignaverði í Reykjavík og Akureyri gagnvart öðrum sveitarfélögum hafði aukist á síðustu árum. Sýnt var fram á að óskir almennings um búsetukosti höfðu verið undirliggjandi þáttur og breyst stóru þjónustukjörnunum tveimur í hag þ.e. aðgengi sem borgir veita hefur orðið hlutfallsega verðmætara heldur en skynvirði sem dreifbýlið hefur í ríkara mæli. Þá kom fram vísbending um að þéttbýlishagræði hafði átt sinn þátt í þróuninni. Við nánari skoðun kom í ljós að munurinn á fasteignaverði í Reykjavík og nálægum sveitarfélögum hafði verið að minnka á sama tíma, þrátt fyrir áðurnefnda þróun. Vísbendingar komu fram um að búferlaflutningar úr borg í sveit hafi verið undirliggjandi áhrifaþáttur þess. Það er almenn tilhneiging til flutnings borgarbúa aftur til sveitar eða smærri bæja í nágrenni borganna, eða í u.þ.b. 120 kílómetra radius frá miðju hennar sem orðið hefur vart bæði annars staðar í Evrópu og einnig í Bandaríkjunum. Ástæður hennar eru ýmist af efnhagslegum hvötum eða af breyttri forgangsröðun í lífi fólks eins og óskir um meiri nálægð við náttúruna eða nánari tengsl við lífið í sveitinni. Í þessari rannsókn komu fram ýmsir aðrir áhrifaþættir fasteingaverðs, margir þeir sömu og í fyrri rannsókninni. Þar má nefna atvinnutekjur, framboð íbúða, aldur og stærð þeirra, fjöldi herbergja, svalir, bílastæði og bílskúr, fjöldi íbúa. Að lokum voru áhrif samgöngubóta á búferlaflutninga metin með beinum hætti. Stuðst var við klassískt búferlaflutningalíkan. Niðurstaða rannsóknarinnar benti til að aðstæður á vinnumarkaði, atvinnutekjur og atvinnuleysi, skiptu mestu máli varðandi búferlaflutninga milli sveitarfélaga á Íslandi. Einnig sást að framboð íbúða laðaði fólk að. Þá skipti aðgengi að sterkum þjónustukjörnum nokkru máli og þess vegna geta samgöngubætur milli höfuðborgarsvæðsins og landsbyggðar hægt á eða jafnvel snúið óhagstæðri íbúaþróun við. Það gæti líka magnað óhagstæða íbúaþróun vegna þess að áhrifin voru þau sömu allsstaðar; því nær sem samgöngubótin var Reykjavík því líklegri var hún til að valda óhagstæðum búferlaflutningum í nærliggjandi sveitarfélagi. Í ákveðinni fjarlægð snérist þetta við þannig að samgöngubætur milli Reykjavíkur og fjarlægari sveitarfélaga stuðluðu að hagstæðum búferlaflutningum til þeirra. Fyrra samhengið er í samræmi við kenningar nýju- svæðahagfræðinnar (kjarnajaðarslíkansins) og kveður á um að samgöngubótin leiði til þess að ákveðin framleiðsla og þjónusta leggist af vegna nálægðar við sterkan kjarna. Hið seinna í samræmi við ójafnvægislíkanið þar sem samgöngubótin hefur tilhneigingu til að auka kaupmátt launa (raunlaun) utan borgarinnar vegna lækkandi verðlags í kjölfar lægri flutningskostnaðar og draga þannig úr brottflutningi eða jafnvel draga fólk að vegna hærri launa. Þar sem niðurstöðurnar gáfu til kynna að ennþá vantaði mikilvæga áhrifaþætti inn í líkanið var gerð tilraun til að meta það á ný og skipta gagnasafninu upp á milli karla og kvenna. Þá kom í ljós að líkanið skýrði miklu betur út búferlaflutninga kvenna heldur en karla. Aðstæður á vinnumarkaði virtust skipta konur miklu meira máli en karla. Það er á vissan hátt rökrétt niðurstaða þar sem sýnt hefur verið fram á að launamunur kynja er minni á höfuðborgarsvæðinu en utan þess. Framboð á íbúðum hafði áhrif á bæði kynin, en ferðatími engin áhrif. Þar sem þetta líkan virtist vera óvenju lélegt í að skýra búferlaflutninga karla vaknaði sú hugmynd að kanna hvort brottflutningar kvenna hefðu áhrif á brottflutning karla. Sú tilgáta vaknaði á grundvelli kenninga Gary Beckers um að hagsæld fólks í sambúð eða hjónabandi sé meiri heldur en einhleypra; þar með ef konur flyttu brott þá dragi úr líkum karla á að komast í sambúð. Það var gert með því að kanna hvort karlar flyttu í kjölfar kvenna til þess að auka líkurnar á sambúð/hjónabandi. Það var staðfest þegar líkanið var keyrt aftur með viðeigandi breytingum. Við þetta hafði ferðatími marktæk áhrif á búferlaflutninga karla og niðurstaðan almennt áreiðanlegri. Það virðist því vera þannig að samgöngubætur hafi frekar áhrif á búferlaflutninga karla en ekki kvenna.

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