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Gaza in the distance I have spent most of my career engaged in the five d's of dodgeball when it comes to the Mideast and especially the Israel-Palestine conflict. Despite starting my career with the international relations of ethnic conflict, I managed a total of one piece of research on the Mideast, and that was more by accident than by design. I got asked to join an edited volume project by a terrific Mideast scholar, Shibley Telhami, after one of my very best job talks (which did not produce a job). Bomb shelter next to a kindergarten if I remember correctlyWhen I turned to doing civil-military relations, I was asked if I was including Israel in my multi-democracy study, and I said nope. I have a better explanation for that--that as a very militarized society, its' civil-military relations are far less comparable. Bus stop, shelter in a town that was probably overrun last weekendBut on the ethnic conflict side? Maybe I refrained because the one time I raised it as an illustration in a job talk, it did not go well. That lesson was certainly reinforced by the experience of teaching US Foreign Policy the semester the US invaded Iraq. That class quickly divided into pro and anti factions based on how the students identified with one side or the other of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Perhaps it is because of a conflict between my background/identity and my scholarly work. I often joked that the three things I learned in Hebrew school were: enough Hebrew (barely) to get through my Bar Mitzvah, much about the Holocaust and the history of oppression of the Jews, and that Israel was empty before the Jews got there and everything Israel does is right. The last is the most relevant although the second obviously hits hard when more Jews died in one day due to violence this weekend than any other time since the Holocaust apparently. I definitely was miseducated about the history of Israel. I was also conflicted about my upbringing since I hated Hebrew school (I never fit in or came close), never believed in the religion, and came to realize my identity as Jew is defined by the reality that Nazis would have included me in their roundups no matter what I believe. That is, identity is not defined by oneself but by the interaction of oneself with others, and as long as folks saw me as Jewish, it was less relevant what I believed.Open air prison ....So, that ambivalence then hits the stuff I have picked up from the work on ethnic conflict. I can see via those lenses that ancient hatred is not really what is going here, but political dynamics in Israel and in the Palestinian community. There is outbidding and pandering to extremists in both, which then feed the outbidding and pandering in the other. Netanyahu feeds Hamas, and Hamas feeds Netanyahu. When I visited in 2019, my first visit, as part of a group tour of IR scholars, I got to see how much has been locked in, that bad decisions beget bad decisions. That Israeli generals told me that the only response to violence is to hit harder than they hit you, as if this were Chicago with the Untouchables fighting Capone. I could see their point of view, but again, it was a path to more violence. I left Israel, like many of those on the trip, sad and frustrated--that the future of Israel and of the Palestinians was bleak--that there was no way out and no one in or near power was interested in finding one. And this happens.So, I see people saying that an unprovoked Israel deserves all of our support. And I have to recoil a bit, as Israel has done a shit ton of provoking via its empowering of rabid settlers who have encroached on the Mosque and engaged in lots of violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. But I also recoil when I hear folks talk about Hamas being part of anti-colonial struggle, as, yes, the Palestinians do have legitimate grievances, but Hamas is an awful, theocratic, maybe nihilist entity that did truly barbaric things. Yet, I also know that Israel is going to kill a lot of Palestinian kids in Gaza since, yes, the population of Gaza is about 50% under 18. War crimes do not justify war crimes. And more violence is not going cause this conflict to go away. Pretty sure those towers are now destroyedBoth sides need far better governance, actors who don't benefit from the other side being radicalized. But the institutions and dynamics of each are perverse and reinforcing. I hope that Netanyahu pays a high price for letting this happen on his watch, but I seriously doubt that Israeli politics is going to move to the center as a result. The flavors of the more successful parties in Israel are all variants of far right. The left/center was broken by the second Intifada, and I doubt that these events will resurrect them. I know less and understand less the Palestinian side, but I am pretty sure that air strikes are not going to lead to moderates taking power. So, I have rambled without reaching a clear idea of who should do what. Which is probably fitting. And also explains why I have been reluctant to discuss this stuff--not just a bad job talk in 1993, but because the reality is so difficult, twisted, and painful.Update:I got into a conversation with my sister during the weekly family zoom, and she pressed me on when have ethnic conflicts ended peacefully rather than through conquest. I gave the easy answer: South Africa. But that conversation reminded me of the basic rules of ethnic conflict:Most ethnic groups, no matter their history, are at peace: violence is rare.When there is violence, it ends. No place is constantly at war forever.The past constrains choices but does not determine the present. It is up to today's politicians to decide what to do, and the incentives the structures/systems provide influence but do not determine. Agency remains.Which means it didn't have to be this way, it didn't have to happen this weekend, while there are dynamics locking the parties in, those dynamics can be resisted, and, yes, outsiders could play some role in either exacerbating or ameliorating the nasty dynamics.
This dissertation examines the role of monetary trust in monetary theory and policy and its implications for an empirical study on central bank communications. The first part critically examines the role monetary trust has played in economic theory in order to distinguish between two schools of thought. In the first school, monetary trust is defined as a horizontal relation between individuals, an approach to monetary trust that was developed by the neoclassical tradition and that continues to influence monetary theory and policy to this day. In the second approach, monetary trust is viewed from a vertical perspective, focusing on the institutional context and social embeddedness of trust relationships. The conclusion that monetary trust is fundamentally hierarchical drawn from this analysis, motivates the empirical study of the second part. This part analyzes whether German and French central bankers are able to efficiently manage the communicative challenge of pandering to the different demands of their three distinct target audiences—the markets, the state, and the public at large. The empirical methodology for this analysis builds on the growing literature analyzing central bank communications to better understand the political and financial implications of monetary policy. I hope to contribute to this field of research by 1) creating a new database of 21 years of speeches and interviews of the Banque de France, the Bundesbank and the ECB (1999-2019), 2) devising a new method for analyzing communications that takes into account different audiences and 3) providing empirical evidence for the observation that monetary policy is not neutral, i.e., that communications are biased in favor of some economic groups over others. The results of this analysis show that French and German central bankers communicate differently at home and at the European level, and deliver a preliminary confirmation of the hypothesis that central bank communications distinguish between audience groups according to the hypothesized hierarchical taxonomy. ; Cette thèse examine le rôle de la confiance monétaire dans la théorie et la politique monétaires pour une étude empirique sur les communications des banques centrales. La thèse étudie d'abord de manière critique le rôle de la confiance monétaire en théorie et politique économique afin de distinguer deux écoles de pensée. Pour la première école, la confiance monétaire se définit comme une relation horizontale entre individus, approche développée par la tradition néoclassique et encore influente à ce jour. La deuxième école se concentre davantage sur le contexte institutionnel et sur la verticalité des relations de confiance. De cette analyse, l'observation selon laquelle la confiance monétaire est fondamentalement hiérarchique sert de fondement pour l'étude empirique de la deuxième partie. Celle-ci analyse les banquiers centraux allemands et français dans leur capacité à gérer efficacement le défi communicationnel consistant à répondre aux différentes demandes de leurs trois publics cibles : les marchés, l'État et le grand public. La méthodologie empirique s'appuie ici sur une recherche textuelle des communications des banques centrales pour mieux comprendre les implications politiques et financières de la politique monétaire en France et en Allemagne. J'espère contribuer à ce domaine croissant de recherche 1) en créant une nouvelle base de données de 21 ans de discours et d'interviews de la Banque de France, de la Bundesbank et de la BCE (1999-2019), 2) en élaborant une nouvelle méthode d'analyse des communications qui tient compte des différents publics et 3) en produisant des preuves empiriques validant l'hypothèse selon laquelle une politique monétaire n'est pas neutre, à savoir que les communications favorisent certains groupes au détriment d'autres. Les résultats de cette analyse sont conclusives en ce qui concerne les cultures de politique monétaire entre la France et l'Allemagne, et confirment l'hypothèse selon laquelle les communications des banques centrales distinguent les groupes d'audience selon la taxonomie hiérarchique avancée dans la première partie.
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U.S. efforts to cobble together an international coalition to protect the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea against attacks by the Yemeni Houthi militias who demand an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war are stoking tensions with European allies.On January 8, the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown called his Spanish counterpart Teodoro Lopez Calderon to, according to the official U.S. readout, discuss the "ongoing illegal Houthi attacks on commercial vessels operating in international waters in the Red Sea." Pointedly, Brown "reiterated the U.S. desire to work with all nations who share an interest in upholding the principle of freedom of navigation and ensuring safe passage for global shipping."But according to recent reporting by veteran Spanish journalist Ignacio Cembrero, Washington has been pushing Spain a bit harder. U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos del Toro recently called the Spanish ambassador in Washington Santiago Cabanas to urge his government to join the U.S.-led anti-Houthi coalition, Operation Guardian Prosperity, and, according to Cembrero's reporting, even went so far as issuing a deadline to Madrid to deliver an answer by January 11. So far Madrid has refused to join the U.S.-led coalition and put its soldiers and ships under the command of Pentagon's CENTCOM in the Red Sea. During an announcement of the coalition's formation last month, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Spain was among the members without, apparently, consulting with the Spanish government, causing considerable irritation in Madrid.To smooth the friction, President Biden called Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to emphasize the Houthi threat. If his intention was to nudge Madrid closer to the U.S. position, it clearly failed: Spain refused to join the U.S. and a number of allies in the joint statement they issued on January 3 warning the Houthis about the consequences of their continued attacks on the maritime freedom.The Spanish government's position did not go unnoticed in Sana'a: the Houthi vice minister for foreign affairs Hussein Al-Ezzi expressed appreciation for Madrid's "distancing from American and British lies on the freedom of navigation." Cembrero also reported that one unexpected collateral benefit of the Spanish government's stance was the release by Iran, the Houthis' chief external backer, of a Spanish citizen kept in captivity in Tehran for 15 months.Although the Spanish government never explained the precise motives of its refusal to join "Prosperity Guardian," Madrid, while having unequivocally condemned Hamas's attack on Israel, has also been vocal in denouncing Israel's "indiscriminate killings" in Gaza, which even provoked a diplomatic crisis between Spain and Israel. The protection of the maritime freedom in the Red Sea is indeed a legitimate concern: nearly 12% of the global trade and $1 trillion worth of goods each year passes through it. The disruption of this route forces the shipping companies to divert their itineraries which causes delays and adds costs. Yet the Houthis also made it clear that their attacks will end when Israel's halts its bombing campaign in Gaza. Indeed, there were no Houthi attacks on the international shipping prior to October 7, 2023.In this context, the Spanish government seems to have calculated that joining the anti-Houthi coalition would rather mean fighting the symptoms, and not the root cause of the worsening conflict in the Middle East, namely, Israel's pursuit of maximalist military goals in Gaza and its seeming attempts to expand the war to Lebanon.By any reasonable estimation, taking the fight to the Houthis would not result in a quick, swift military victory. The movement only emerged stronger after the nine years-long war Saudi Arabia and the Arab coalition it led waged against it, with a lavish military, diplomatic and intelligence support from the U.S., UK and other Western nations. The Iran-backed Houthis have also developed considerable home-made drone and missile capabilities, with a proven capacity to hit Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Israel and Western military assets in the region. No war on the Houthis would, thus, be limited to some surgical strikes. With a predictable failure of such strikes to "neutralize" the militia, there is a high probability of a mission creep that would lead the coalition to attack targets onshore in Yemen, and that, in turn, could lead to an indirect collision with Iran. The Spanish government's reluctance to assume the risks of being embroiled in a likely pointless war against Houthis and their Iranian backers is understandable, particularly given that Madrid also wants a ceasefire in Gaza.While Spain may have been the most explicit in its reluctance to join the U.S.-led coalition against the Houthis, it is by no means the only U.S. ally harboring reservations. Notably, France, the EU's militarily most capable state, refused to join the White House-led January 3 statement. Italy, although signed that statement, is not committing itself to fighting under the U.S. command. Other NATO allies, like Netherlands, Denmark and Norway, only agreed to send token military personnel. In the end, the whole project looks more like a U.S.–UK undertaking than a real coalition of allies and like-minded partners.Instead of causing division and stoking tensions with its allies over the prospects of a highly questionable (to say the least) military operation, the Biden administration should deploy its leverage to get Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and abandonment of any temptation to expand the war to Lebanon. If the Houthis continue their attacks in the Red Sea after a ceasefire, then the U.S. and its allies will have full legitimacy to strike back. For now, however, alienating allies like Spain and France by pandering to the most extreme Israeli government in history certainly isn't a price worth paying.
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Given the bad hand Louisiana's Constitution dealt him, Republican Gov. Jeff Landry did his best and largely successfully to fix problems created in the past few years with the state's Industrial Tax Exemption Program.
ITEP reflects a constitutional power defined by the mostly gubernatorial-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry and the Department of Economic Development which allows it to exempt manufacturing firms from property taxes from value added to property used for discrete projects that create new or expand operations. However, the Constitution vests the final power in the hand of the governor whether to approve whatever emerges, so he can create the conditions for acceptance through an executive order, in essence saying that unless requests forwarded to him meet standards he articulates, he won't approve these.
Historically, such supervision was minimal, leading to almost any project within the constitutional boundaries meeting approval, until Landry's predecessor Democrat John Bel Edwards radically changed the rules, and for the worse. Understanding the negative impact begins with acknowledging that ITEP exists because of Louisiana's confiscatory property tax rates insofar as these apply to business.
Because of the nation's highest homestead exemption (plus a myriad of other smaller breaks), the state's rates are artificially high because homeowning families, the majority of voters, don't pay that but a reduced rate or nothing on all but municipal taxes if they live in one. Instead, it is foisted on businesses, especially industrial concerns which pay one of the highest per capita burdens in the country. The best solution as to what to do with ITEP would be to get rid of it entirely, but that would require an extensive overhaul of the state's taxing regime that would take an entire term to accomplish.
So, ITEP then ideally serves as a palliative for too-high property taxation of large business investment. Unfortunately, in two iterations, Edwards changed this to making it a mechanism holding out the possibility of redistributing wealth, or even pursuing social justice aims. Three changes in particular opened the doors to this noxious combination.
First, he gave three or four (depending on whether a municipality was involved) kinds of local governments a veto power over an application. Second, this veto power was particular to the local government involved. Third, he insisted that application demonstrate the project's completion would create jobs.
Together, these created a catastrophic situation for economic development, beginning with the complexity introduced. If Board approval came, then each of the three or four local governments got a crack at it, which in a small of number cases produced split decisions, creating bureaucratic complexity both within the tax collector (sheriff) and the business, where the latter served as a disincentive to invest.
In even fewer cases, they all vetoed the idea, which provided an even greater disincentive. In fact, advocacy literature disguised as quality and honest research even admitted tangentially that the new policy discouraged applications even as it trumpeted that few rejections occurred. But you can't turn down something if it never gets submitted, either out of fear it'll be wasted effort or simply not even contemplated because of the new rules, and you can't reap the economic benefits of these projects never undertaken.
But the worst of all was the job creation requirement, which betrays both a fundamental misunderstanding of economic development and its use a cudgel to further political careers and special interest agendas. Political hacks and courthouse gangs liked the idea because then they could draw a direct line to their approval and a claim their actions put people to work.
Worse still, they could use that as a bargaining tool to further agendas inimical to economic development, if not the well-being of the community as a whole. A classic example came from the Orleans Parish School Board, which issued its own set of criteria for project approval that focused heavily on wealth redistribution and pandering to special interest agendas, rather than focus on policy that would create a rising tide to lift all boats.
Job creation is a potentially desired output from a tax break decision. But economic development is far more than that, and can be exclusive of that. The outstanding exhibit of why job creation can't be the end-all-be-all of tax policy is the state's Motion Picture Investors tax credit, which costs $13,300 per (mostly part-time) job created, and doesn't even return a quarter on the dollar of this to taxpayers. You don't have to create any jobs to make a decision where forgoing tax dollars boosts productivity and tax revenues that ripple through the entire local economy.
Wisely, Landry recognized these flaws and corrected them. He simplified the local review process to include for every decision just the chief executive or first among equals from a parish, school district, sheriff's office (the sheriff or designee), and, when needed, mayor to vote collectively on the matter.
Better, he made this a nonbinding advisory opinion, so local governments no longer can throw up extraneous requirements. Best of all, he removed the job creation criteria and made the final decision – if approved by the Board with local input – his on the basis of overall economic development that recognizes the state's punitive property tax structure for manufacturing concerns needs rebalancing to encourage capital investment.
He kept a provision that wouldn't make exemptions retroactively applied and only for meaningful spending that could boost productivity. He also capped the break at 80 percent – including the option to go to 100 might have been better – for five years, plus as many more renewed once.
This is a far better use of ITEP, if we must have it, that will focus on aiding all participants in the state and local economies rather than select special interests. Landry continues to mean business that the state, after years of indifference if not hostility to this idea from Edwards, is open for business.
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A recent musing about Louisiana population loss contains a lot bathos, signifying the difficulty, if not unwillingness, that the state's leftist institutions have in accepting what's plain to everybody else.
Last week, the Baton Rouge Advocate ran a piece about the latest 2023 census numbers, which show most Louisiana parishes lost population. The state as a whole lost over 14,000 people in 2023, bring the total loss from compared to 2015 to nearly 120,000 even as the country as a whole, and most states, grew in numbers. In fact, the state's 0.31 percent loss trailed in percentage terms only New York, and of the seven states that did lose population, four were among the largest blue states, with purple Pennsylvania barely slipping and only West Virigina among red states joining Louisiana.
Only Ascension, Beauregard, Bossier, Calcasieu, De Soto, East Feliciana, Iberville, Lafayette, Livingston, St. Bernard, St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, Vermillion, and West Baton Rouge gained – a few barely – and none over one percent. Metropolitan statistical areas were a mixed bag: energy-intensive areas Lafayette and Lake Charles and northshore Hamond and Slidell-Covington-Mandeville, plus Baton Rouge eked out gains but Shreveport-Bossier City, Monroe, Alexandria, Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, and New Orleans-Metairie shrunk. In fact, New Orleans led the country in MSA slumping at 1.15 percent, while Houma was fifth worst at 0.85 percent, Alexandria 16th worst at 0.60 percent, Shreveport 36th worst at 0.43 percent, and Monroe 46th worst at 0.34 percent. Hammond's 0.92 percent growth was best in the state and 92nd best nationwide.
Louisiana's rural areas fared even worse than its urban, while overall suburban areas held their own. That 50 parishes lost population flummoxed the Advocate, which went on an extensive expedition in search of explanations why since the 2020 census this had happened.
Natural disasters clearly had a role, but this masked some notable divergences. For example, Lake Charles was coming back from its travails, but Houma wasn't. And obviously a lot of places hadn't had adverse weather events strike them in the past three years.
So, setting aside idiosyncratic elements, it had to be policy, and to her credit Alison Plyer, the longtime chief demographer of New Orleans' Data Center, hit upon that when queried by the reporter. But, as students will tend to do in answering essay questions, they may guess correctly right answer but provide the wrong reasons to explain it.
Plyer fell victim to this in two ways, although one was only a partial bogey. She observed the poorer health statistics reflected by Louisianans compared to almost every other state, which would lead to earlier deaths offsetting births. Set aside, of course, that this is a temporary effect; changes in cohort life spans would influence extremely marginally overall population so long as the birth cohorts remained constant, so an ongoing fall caused by shorter lifespans would make sense only in the context of a sudden drop in life expectancy that isn't occurring (even if a relatively rapid one such as during the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic happens, it also happened elsewhere, so relative change among states would be extremely marginal).
Yet that shouldn't be happening in Louisiana, using the left's assumptions, because Medicaid expansion! Now almost eight years old, that was supposed to provide all sorts of additional health care people were missing to improve their lives. In reality, a large minority of its new clients years ago simply dropped their private insurance (or their employers did it when expansion rolled out) to get a new freebie, so it's not like they didn't have health care insurance already. If, of course, they could access Medicaid, with its limited providers and a lowest common denominator approach that degraded the quality of care. And while you can throw health care at people, you can't make them live healthy lives that would decrease their health care usage. So, for the extra $450 million or so a year Louisiana taxpayers pony up to subsidize other people's health care, there's very little bang for the buck or explanatory power for population loss (if anything, hanging out a new benefit not available in nearly all of the fastest-growing states should attract residents).
But Plyer also made a very ignorant statement. Not her observation that higher educational attainment helps to drive population growth, but that state taxpayer subsidization falling a third since 2008 on a per higher education student basis indicates that Louisiana spent less money on tertiary education. In fact, in fiscal year 2008 $2.766 billion for 201,557 students was budgeted for higher education or $13,723 per student, while in FY 2024 that will be $3.453 billion for 217,618 students or $15,867 per student, an increase of 15.6 percent. The hoary and tired contention that Louisiana has "disinvested" in higher education is an exhausted myth.
Yes, policy is the explanation, but not derived from the blind alleys in the article. It's very simple: the cause is Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards' big spending, tax raising, benefit boosting (such as Medicaid expansion), social justice pandering regime, insufficiently resisted by a Republican Legislature short on leadership that only deigned to rein in Edwards' worst attempted excesses. It discouraged producers from producing, if not their staying in the state, and encouraged wasteful spending, criminal coddling, and more people jumping on the wagon. It not only led to depopulation, but fewer jobs than when he took office, anemic personal income growth that barely outpaced inflation, crime rates heading higher at an above average pace, and a coarsening culture that pandered to ideological special interests.
And, of course, it was the three central cities with Democrat mayors and solid Democrat majorities on their city councils – New Orleans, Shreveport (although it now has a GOP mayor), and Alexandria – which were among the worst performing local jurisdictions. However, notice how Lafayette and Lake Charles, run by Republicans, bucked the trend.
Those shortcomings are the wages of liberalism and are the kinds of things that drive people away – but leftist institutions aren't going to admit that and will try to find any lame excuse to deflect from that. What's obvious to everybody else they refuse to see, which makes the musings in that article largely irrelevant, if not entirely counterproductive to reversing the state's depopulation trend.
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Nikki Haley's "what about slavery?" statement reminds us that the 2024 campaign is one of ethnic outbidding--specifically, white nationalist outbidding. I have been writing about ethnic outbidding for quite some time, in my own academic work, and then applied to the US especially in the age of Trump. To be clear, the concept is not mine. It was most clearly articulated by Donald Horowitz--that when multiple politicians or parties compete for support from an homogenous group in a heterogeneous society, they will be tempted/pressured to outbid each other in their promises to be the best defender of that group.* In 2016, Trump was best positioned to win this auction, this competition for ever more extreme voters, as he was willing to say anything, including banning Muslims, and, yes, his personality feeds into it as he always wants to top other folks. After the 2020 election, Fox News felt pressure from its right, as it initially recognized Trump's defeat, but started to lose market share to OAN and other far right outlets.In the 2024 race, the competition to be the best white nationalist (I tend to prefer white supremacist but YMMV) is so evident with non-white candidates like Nikki Haley and Tim Scott appealing to the white vote. Many have noted the irony or hypocrisy of those running to lead the Party of Lincoln getting all soft on slavery.** Haley once was on the right side of history, lowering the confederate flag from government buildings when she was governor of South Carolina. But that was before Trump changed the permission structure of Republican politics. Now, to compete at the national level, one must establish one's white nationalist bona fides by being pro-confederacy. [Save me the BS about state's rights, as SC's secession and pretty much every other one was based on the selective state's right to support the institution of slavery and oppose the rights of non-slave-holding states to regulate their own borders]. To be clear, ethnic outbidding refers to pressures and temptations--the fear of losing white voters to other candidates or the temptation to pander to extremist voters to get a leg up on more moderate candidates. Candidates and parties still have agency. They have a choice to make, often a tough one, but they can choose to go another way at some cost. Fox could have been willing to risk losing some market share to far right outlets. Nikki Haley could have risked losing some share of the electorate to others, with the hope that she could corner the market of reasonable Republicans (if such a beast still exists). The challenge is that we know that the most enthused voters show up at primaries, and those tend to be those on the extremes. But in this time of increased threat of autocracy, there is an opportunity for a Republican to take a stand. This is not just wishful thinking or idealism--the white nationalist vote is going to Trump. Whatever is left will go to DeSantis and others who fit the bill--white "Christian" men. Nikki Haley could be the candidate that grabs other voters. Again, she has agency, she has a choice to make, and, until this week, she had somewhat of an advantage with her background--not just being a person of color (perhaps in denial about that) and a woman, but someone who had pulled down the confederate flag in a previous job. She had the credentials to try to be the savior of the GOP. And Haley tossed it away. Out of weakness. Due to cowardice. She simply is not going to win an outbidding race against Trump or against the other dudes in the race. So, we can blame the structure of the American politics--the winner take all process where small numbers of voters in primaries set the agenda--but we cannot let these politicians off. They have responsibility for their stances. We got here because of GOP weakness and temptation. In 2016, GOP candidates didn't attack Trump directly because they wanted his voters--the deplorables that Hillary Clinton so aptly called them. In 2024, the cowardice has a physical element to it--that Trump supporters have threatened violence. But cowardice it still is--to run for Presidency and sell out whatever values one has and ultimately endanger oneself and one's family. Again, Haley may think of herself as white, but she isn't to to white nationalists to whom she is pandering. Indian-Americans may not be at the top of their hate list, but I am pretty sure Great Replacement Theorists worry about South Asians replacing white folks, just as they worry about Jews, Black Americans, Muslims, etc. Structure and agency are in play here--we need to hold accountable the politicians who pander to the worst instincts in people and we need to remember that Trump and Haley wouldn't be doing this stuff if it did not work, if there was not an audience for it.* This is not just an American thing, of course, as Horowitz was inspired by the Sinhalese case in Sri Lanka. These days, Canada is having a bit of the outbidding dynamic as the Conservative Party of Canada feels pressured by a small far right party run by, well, an idiot. That case illustrates it is not just pressure but temptation. The temptation to split off voters from the heterogeneous party.** You don't have to be an historian to know that the two parties switched their positions/places on the rights of African-Americans to be free and to vote, but it doesn't hurt. Follow Kevin Kruse on social media to get the basics as he has responded extensively to the whole "hey, the Dems were the party of racism" stuff. It is called partisan realignment for a reason--the parties and voters realigned in response to the response to the civil rights movement.
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I woke up in the middle of the night because I am old and I ate and drank too much. I couldn't resist schnitzel and strudel as I am in Vienna for a talk and for some other shenanigans (more on that in another post). And then I saw Phil Lagassé's post on the Conservatives and if they might spend on defence if elected. On that general topic, I am a skeptic as I think the CPC cares more about deficits than about defence, and the place to cut the budget is, alas, defence. That is where the money is. This was true under Harper. I don't know what Pierre Poilevre believes in, other than opportunism and pandering to the far right, but I don't think he will commit lots of money to get Canada to 2% of GDP (on the other hand, he could tank the economy, and that is the other way to get there). Oh, and to be clear, I think we need to spend significantly more on the military--I am just not going to threat inflate to get us there.Anyway, Phil said in his piece that we need to spend more to deal with the threat in the Arctic, and I had to scoff. Which led to a fun exchange in bluesky, reminiscent of the old days on twitter where we would argue and people thought we hated each other. Hint: I don't co-author with people I don't like. Ir don't co-author with the same person several times unless we get along very well. But it is both fun and educational to push back against one of the very sharpest defence minds in Canada.Specifically, Phil said: "Canadians know their Arctic is vulnerable." And my ensuing commentary focused on that: what exactly is the threat to Canada from on high? And should we consider this the most significant/dangerous threat? My point is that it is way back in line. Phil says we need to have better situational awareness up north. My rejoinder is: no invasion coming, just some spy ships on the water and below it. Others chimed in: more ships going through the northwest passage means more environmental stuff could go awry. And, I agree. But where does that line up in the threat picture? Here's my cranky, awakened with acid in my throat, ranking of the threats facing Canada. Climate change: Canadians are paying a high price for the changing climate even if we could joke about being a beneficiary as our winters get mostly shorter. Milder? Variance is more certain than anything else. Anyhow, people are dying in floods and fires, much property is being destroyed. When I speak of threat, I think of real harms to Canadians, to the economy, to governance. Climate change is first and it is not close. I was mocked by someone via email when I said this on TV, but I have never been a super lefty, green environmentalist type in my work. It is just the reality that in dollar amounts and in lives, the warming planet is harming Canadians in a big way and it is only going to get worse. A recurring theme is that many of the threats either cannot or will not have the military as the lead agency. This actually comes the closest given that the provinces underinvest in emergency management, knowing that the military will act if asked and won't present a bill.Pandemics: how many people were killed by covid in Canada? Nearly 60,000, which is more than Canadians killed in all foreign wars combined if one leaves out WWI. Plus many people now have long covid. It did a heap of damage to the economy, and, if you care about deficits (I don't really), guess what blew a big hole in the budget? I am very glad the Liberal government poured a ton of money into the economy as we didn't have runs on food banks during the height of the pandemic. I just wish Conservative-led provinces actually spent the money allotted to health care on.... health care. Will covid be the last pandemic? No. Indeed, given what it has done to attitudes about vaccinations, quarantines, and masking, I doubt we will respond as well next time. Scary, eh? The military was called out because other agencies lacked capacity, but this was really a medical/scientific thing, so let's not allocate a ton of money to the military for pandemic preparedness.Cyber attacks. Wars are distant, but cyber attacks are hitting Canadians every day, disrupting people's lives, hurting various businesses and public agencies, and pose a significant threat where some country could bring down our power or harm dams and more. Is this the military's job? Partially but not really. We don't need people who are trained to fire weapons and ready to deploy abroad and all that stuff to fight a cyber war. We need smart folks at well equipped desks. We definitely need to have more money spent on the military to survive and thrive in a cyberwar environment, but the CAF is not really our answer to thwarting cyber attacks against the Canadian public.Far right violence. We live in a time of increasing attacks by xenophobes, misogynists, homophobes, racists, anti-semities, Islamophobes, and white supremacists (these hates tend to travel together). Yes, left wing extremists can have many of these attributes, but it is clear that the violence is almost entirely coming from the far right. These haters are doing real harm to Canadians right now, and the trend is in the wrong direction. Can the military do anything about this? I think the general rule of not having the military police the public is a very good idea. Instead, the military's role is mostly to make sure it is not training the next generation of far right terrorists. Disinformation. This is, of course, related to the prior one, but it also involves foreign actors who are trying to tilt election outcomes. We are increasingly living in a time where people can't trust what they see and hear, or they are trusting the wrong actors. This leads to develop dangerous beliefs--like vaccines are poisonous, that the government in power is engaging in great, deliberate harm against its ideological opponents, and so forth, While the Liberals have screwed up many things, they need some trust in government to operate on our behalf, just as the Conservatives or NDP would need people to trust in institutions. The military should not be the primary actor at home on this either even as they engage in info ops abroad.People might I was joking about the increases in truck/SUV size being a threat, but more than 2000 people died in car accidents in 2023, and the trend is going up, even if one cuts the peak covid years from the dataset.North Korean missiles. While China and Russia have nuclear missiles, I have a bit more faith in the workings of deterrence and a bit less worried about accidental/deliberate first use. North Korea would not have any reason to attack Canada, but I could imagine that their aim might be that good. Of course, what is the CAF's role in this? Providing warning that Vancouver is doomed and then helping to respond to the aftermath. We have no defences against ballistic missiles nor will Canada have any such systems anytime in the future. I am a skeptic about American strategic defense (although tactical anti-missile systems seem to range from pretty good to amazing), but I do think Canada should join the US system as the ABM treaty is very dead. This is a military job and would justify the massive investment in NORAD modernization. Otherwise, it really is a system to warn us to give us a few minutes to kiss our loved ones goodbye. Oh, and manage relations with the US.US relations! The Canadian economy and its security crucially depend on the US, and, oh my, Canada will be so very, very fucked if Trump were to win. Democracies have lived beside authoritarian regimes before (hey, Finland!), but so much of Canada's position in the world relies on this huge market and this peaceful border and cooperation with the US. When was the last time Canada fought abroad without the US beside its side? UN missions? Guess again as the UN relies heavily on American support to do its ops. One could argue this would mean less wars for Canada--no more Afghanistans (which was purely to help its ally). But Canada would be even at greater risk of being bullied by the China's and Saudi Arabia's of the world. And, of course, by Trump himself. But again, this is not the CAF's job to prevent or mitigate this. If Trump is elected, most of the problems above get worse and this item zooms to the top.Maybe here goes: incomplete understanding of what is happening in the Arctic. Yes, that stuff up north is still Canada, but the threat to Canadians up there is not really that posed by Russia or China but by the lack of infrastructure and by the aforementioned climate change, pandemics, etc.So, if the military is not needed for this stuff, or only needed for domestic emergency ops, why spend tens of billions on it? Why increase spending? It comes down to this: the military is an instrument of policy. This means that it can and is used to further Canadian government objectives even if most of those objectives are not about thwarting threats to Canada. Canada has consistent interests in the world for which the CAF is a key tool, such as helping to foster stability in Europe and Asia. Canada, like the US, has learned that when those continents catch fire, it damages Canadian interests and hurts Canadians. A war in the South China Sea with or without the Canadian navy would be catastrophic to the Canadian economy. War west of Ukraine would also be quite damaging. NATO itself is an important interest that requires the Canadian military to invest in itself and in NATO missions. Ultimately, Canadians want to do good in the world and want to support the international order, whether we call it liberal or rules-based or American hegemony or whatever. Because we understand that Canadians have more influence within institutions than outside of them, that the rules have favored the Canadian economy, and helped the Canadian people to enjoy the fruits of international cooperation.Ultimately, one wants a well armed, well trained, well staffed military to prepare for the worst. In my ranking of threats, I focused on both likelihood of the threat being realized and the amount of harm that is likely if the threat happens. Climate change is at the top because it is happening and is not going away and is going to do heaps of damage. The threat in the Arctic is lower down because it is unlike that any foreign actor will attack that way and the damage they can do is not that great, again compared to everything else.Oh, and what is also a threat? Having an under-funded, unprepared, ill-equipped military sent off to war--that way lies tragedy. So, yes, spend more, but let's not exaggerate where the threats are coming from and what the role of the military is.
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Do Spew and 2 rhyme? I sure hope so as I begin my review of the year that was. The last time I blogged less than I did in 2022 was ... in 2008, when I didn't blog at all. What explains the decline? Partly exhaustion, partly a decline in imagination, partly other social media sucking up my time (the podcasts, now tooting as well as tweeting), and partly the reality that I have written enough stuff before that when the topic comes up, it is just easier to repost. Maybe a look at this year's posts will tell me a bit about what inspires me to write here and what does not, although survivor and recency biases may mesh nicely with my confirmation bias to prevent me from learning that much. Hmmm.JanuaryI started by pondering whether JK Rowling has utterly destroyed her legacy--whether I can still consume Harry Potter stuff. While I concluded that I could still enjoy the world she created, even as she betrays damn near all of it, my behavior, my choices, says otherwise as I had multiple opportunities to watch HP movies while hanging out at my mother-in-law's over the holidays and dodged all of them. Something I had not done in the past. Later in the month, I returned to the theme of what kinds of stuff can I read and enjoy given the complex realities of our time. I wrote about how it has become harder to watch and read cop shows given what we know about cops these days. I am finishing the latest John Sandford book which features multiple cops, Virgil Flowers and Lucas Davenport, solving a serial murder spree by bitcoin assholes, and have found it fairly compelling (unlike the most recent Jack Reacher book). So, maybe I am less affected by the topics than by the behavior of the artist?The month ended with the start of the occupation of Ottawa by extremists--far right white supremacists. The year ended with an examination of whether the government should have invoked the Emergency Act. Um, yeah, but because the emergency was that the provincial leaders were cowards who wanted the feds to own it.FebruaryThe extremists in Ottawa became a focus for me, as it did for most of my city, for most of the month with posts on: outbidding, explaining why the Conservatives were pandering to the extremistsanger, discussing how pissed off this made me, triggered indeed.policing, as I learned that Canadians think that the cops should not be directed by the politicians as if policing is not inherently political,my take on the Emergency Act.And then the past came back to bite Ukraine and me. My previous work on irredentism became relevant again with Russia's invasion of yet more Ukrainian territory. In this post, I explained the basics of irredentism--that it is always bad for the country doing the invading even as it may or may not be bad for its leader, that domestic dynamics are key, and so on.March The focus of March was very much on the war in Ukraine. I argued via a bit of screenwriting why a No Fly Zone was a bad idea. I elaborated about the disease of MOAR. And, yes, I then invoked my work on irredentism to explain why Putin was willing to kill Russia's kin in order to "save" them. I wrote about limited war, a topic that got new energy this week as some retired generals expressed much frustration at the unwillingness of the US to send deep strike weapons to Ukraine.I also blogged about my appearance before the House of Commons Defence Committee.AprilThis month had only a few posts, with nearly all focused on CDSN events. The outlier was a post discussing the appearance of Minister of National Defence Anita Anand in my Civil-Military Relations class. That was super-cool--a great way to finish off that course.MayI marked my 300,000th tweet before twitter's death spiral... maybe I caused it?I discussed the two events organized by the CDSN Undergraduate Excellence Scholars--a conference and a hackathon. I also went to Germany for another conference. Woot!My last post took a first look at the Arbour report, where a retired Supreme Court Justice assessed the Canadian Armed Forces and why it has fallen short, yet again, on reforming itself when it comes to sexual misconduct. I took a quick tour of the 48 recommendations. June I didn't write much in June, but two of my posts continued my examination of the Arbour Report: here and here. In the first one, I pushed on a point that will become a key question in my next project--what is the proper rule of a defence department or ministry or agency? Arbour says DND is to support the CAF, and, no, nope, nuh uh. This does help to explain a big problem with this and previous reports--having a very limited view of what DND's job is. I also focus on the lack of a recommendation for an Inspector General, which is now a topic of research of this year's Visiting Defence Fellow.I also marked my 10 years in Ottawa with this post. I am so glad that the tides of the academic job market washed me ashore here. It was not my plan, but it has worked out wonderfully.JulyJuly was a month of ups and downs. I started the month by pondering how long might the autocratic moment in the US last if Democracy were to give way. The most pivotal building at my old summer camp burned down, but there was much resilience that day and beyond to give me hope for its future.One of the ups was the new season of Battle Rhythm. I am forever grateful to Stéfanie von Hlatky for helping us launch our podcast, and I was sad to see her move to admin stuff at her university. But we got re-energized by a new crew of co-hosts. Artur, Anessa, Erin, and Linna have provided a variety of perspectives since they joined us. I am most grateful to Melissa Jennings for doing most of the heavy lifting in this effort and to Carelove Doreus and Racheal Wallace for their carrying the rest of the load. It has been a big year in Canadian civil-military relations, and one of the highlights was the decision to adjust the uniform standards to make the CAF more welcoming to more people. I addressed these changes with some accidental foreshadowing of the awful Vimy speech by one of those responsible for the culture crisis that prevented the CAF from adapting sooner.The month, which started with COVID finally hitting me and Mrs. Spew thanks to a conference trip to Berlin, ended in an upswing with both Beulahfest as my mom celebrated her 90th birthday and, yes, Stevefest, as I did a heap of stuff to celebrate another year of me. AugustNot many posts this month as I was very busy organizing and then hosting the first in-person CDSN Summer Institute. It was one of the original ideas animating the big grant application, and it was great to see it finally come to fruition with so many sharp people speaking and participating. Plus it was an excuse to have a reception or three. Just a great week worth all the effort by the CDSN team.Much news about classified documents thanks to Trump hoarding documents he should have had anymore, so I shared what I had learned during the year I had a top secret clearance and worked every day in a SCIF--secure compartmented information facility.Finally, I said goodbye to a key part of my life--ultimate frisbee. I just kept getting injured and could not stay on the field. I could still throw well, but that whole running thing proved to be too much. I very much miss it, it gave me friends across North America, it gave me some level of fitness, it gave me heaps of silliness, and nothing can fill the hole it left behind, alas. SeptemberAnother light month for blogging. I wrote a guide for those visiting Montreal for the American Political Science Association meeting. The focus of the month and of my career these days was/is civil-military relations. I wrote about the retired generals and SecDefs providing advice on how to manage this relationship. And then I addressed a recurring challenge up here--should the Canadian military prioritize domestic emergency operations? Whether the CAF wants to or not (not), climate change is going to make this happen. It already has. I am getting more and more interested in studying domestic emergency ops in part because few defence scholars have done so. Nothing like having a wide open field to pass the disk into. Oh wait, that was last month's post about ultimate.One reason I didn't post more in September is that I was headed west to Disneyland and to visit my daughter (not necessarily prioritized that way?).OctoberI gave thanks for all kinds of stuff as Canada celebrates Thankgiving in October when Americans debate the role of Columbus.I spent the rest of the month preparing both the CDSN Midterm Report for one of our funders and a conference to mark the midway point in our SSHRC grant. It was great to hear from the co-directors of the various research efforts--Civ-Mil Relations, Personnel, Security, and Operations. We were once told that the CDSN was just me and my friends dong stuff, but, to be clear, when it started, many of those who joined as co-directors were not friends and some were barely acquaintances. Now, we are friends, but isn't that how networking works when it works well? I am very proud of what we have put together even if it put a major dent in my blogging.November Was the theme of the month commenting on other people's mistakes? Seems like it with a post on twitter's dramatic decline thanks to Musk and then the craptastic speech by a retired general. That post generated more hits than any other this year and is in the top five of my 13 years of blogging. The related tweet was also the most tweeted/impressioned tweet of the year and then some. It led to a post addressing "woke" and being "anti-woke," which helped me think about vice-signaling, the flipside of virtue-signaling. I got to put on my old NATO hat when some errant missiles from Ukraine's war with Russia landed in Poland. I did much media as well to explain that NATO does not work the way may folks think--that there is nothing automatic about it, even if the attack had been deliberate.One reason I blog less is that I simply have not been writing that much about pop culture here. Why? Mostly due to lack of time. One exception to this was thinking about the International Politics of the second Black Panther movie.DecemberThe year ended with much CDSN and much cookies!I went to Winnipeg for the first time for a CDSN workshop on Domestic Emergency Operations. This is the focus of one of our four MINDS (DND) funded research projects. I learned a great deal from sharp people both in and out of the government. There is much work to do here, and I am glad we have made this one of our foci over the next three years. Once again, we held an end of the year conference, the Year Ahead, which addresses some of the issues on the horizon. This year, we also launched the new CDSN Podcast Network at the event! The CDSN Podcast Network brings together four podcasts--Battle Rhythm, Conseils de Sécurité, SecurityScape and NATO Field Report. We are open to adding others down the road. Along the way, we fixed our Apple podcast feed. I am most excited not just for having a new home for BattleRhythm but connecting and amplifying some student-run podcasts.I finished the year with a heap of baking--cookies for friends around Ottawa. The basic idea is this: I want to eat a lot of different kinds of cookies. But then making so many different kinds means finding people who are willing to take most off my hands or else I will gain a heap of weight (winterfest did that anyway). I enjoyed my first cookiefest in 2020, which was the first time I saw many people after months and months of quarantining. So, I keep doing it, now armed with better equipment (kitchen aid stand mixer makes it much easier than the first cookie fest) and more recipes. It is not just the baking and the eating. I got to chat with a bunch of great people as I delivered the cookies. If the cookies are joy (and, yes, they are), giving joy leads to receiving much joy.One of the interesting dynamics of 2022 was the re-emergence of blogging. That many folks started writing on substack, which, to me, seems like blogging but with the chance of income. I have not moved over there as I am pretty happy with this perch. It does not make me money, but I doubt that people would pay that much for my half-baked (semi-spewed) writings. One of my New Year's Resolutions is to blog more. My guess is that I will be more successful at that than the ones focused on dietary restraint.May you and yours have a terrific 2023!
Almost two years since his election, as Obama's popularity continues to sink, many are left wondering what went wrong with his presidency. But before that question can be answered, a more careful consideration of the situation he inherited seems in order: two unwinnable wars, the Guantánamo legal limbo, a badly damaged international reputation and an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression, during which close to ten million jobs were lost. That was the state of the country when he came to power in 2008. In two years Obama has not solved any of these problems completely, but has made headway in many of them. In the context of a slow and jobless economic recovery, and faced with a vociferous opposition which has turned down every chance at bipartisan cooperation, the question should perhaps then be how Obama's level of support among the population remains this high (43%).The President still has the backing of Democratic voters, but has lost the support of Independents. Even those who would never consider abandoning him are suffering from an "enthusiasm gap" that may affect their turnout in the November 2 mid-term elections. With unemployment still hovering around 9.5% and with little prospect of change in the near future, the disillusionment of the electorate is understandable (43% support Obama today, compared with 60% in early 2009). But it is worth pondering how much of this discontent against the party in power is derived from the failure of policy and how much from the divisive political game played by the opposition.In all fairness to Obama, shrill accusations of socialism and big government were raised against him as soon as he came to power and had to immediately address the banking, mortgage and automobile meltdowns. Acerbic Republican opposition to any measure adopted by the Executive since then, has dominated the political discourse and made it almost impossible for the Administration to present evidence that, without its actions, the economic recovery would have taken even longer. It is hard to prove a negative proposition. Republicans have had a receptive audience in the low, mostly white middle class, many of who have taken to the streets under the Tea Party banner, to fight in one voice both against government "take over" of health care and (incongruously) in defense of Medicare (the government-sponsored health program for senior citizens).There is rich irony in hearing the word "socialist" hurled as the ultimate insult to a President who has bailed out the big financial institutions and the two largest automobile industries without nationalizing them, and who has signed a health care reform bill that does not include the controversial public option, which had been the centerpiece of his planned reform but was deemed too liberal by members of his own party. But reason and logic have no role to play in the polarized political atmosphere that we are experiencing today. Emotion and fear are much more productive in the views of the opposition, to help them re-take the House and perhaps even the Senate in this fall election.Timid Democrats in the House and Senate, afraid to lose their newly acquired seats in states and districts that voted for McCain in the 2008 presidential election are also abandoning the president. A posse of four or five of Senate "Blue Dog" Democrats has helped dilute the health care legislation by removing the public option from the bill, and have taken off the table legislation to curb carbon emissions and promote green energy sources. There are different hypotheses of why Obama has been unable to maintain high support rates in spite of having had important legislative victories (TARP, Stimulus spending package, extension of unemployment benefits, health care and financial reform). Former (Clinton's) Labor Secretary Robert Reich and NY Times columnist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman argue that Obama's stimulus was ridiculously small, given the state of the economy in January 2009. They blame the President for not using the majorities in the House and Senate to pass bolder legislation. By compromising, Obama disappointed the liberal wing of his party, but more importantly, lost the Independents at the center, who simultaneously believed the Republican rhetoric about "Big government Socialist take over" but resented Obama's bailout of Wall Street. Contrary to the fear-mongering claims of the deficit hawks about the debt, Krugman points out that "far from fleeing US debt, investors are eagerly buying it, driving interest rates to historic lows". Reich insists that Obama missed an opportunity to push the limits of politics, establish a new framework of redistributive policies and regulations, and become a transformative president. Although this view undoubtedly has some merit, it ignores the brutal backlash against government spending that affected every Democrat in the House and Senate and made them fear for their jobs. A larger stimulus would have faced even stronger opposition from among the party's own ranks and seen some defectors. Obama is a pragmatic leader who governs as best he can, given the huge constraints of the current political context.Jay Cost from Real Politics offers a different explanation: Obama's geographic coalition was never broad enough because he failed to win the hearts and minds of middle and rural America. It is from those sectors that Independents have abandoned support for the administration in droves. In other words, Obama's major constituencies were in the major cities on the two seaboards and from the suburbs, and included Blacks, youth and university educated white professionals. Even in those cases in which they voted for Obama, white rural America, and blue collar workers never were quite convinced that he would fight for them, and the Wall Street bailout confirmed their suspicion. Underlying it all, there is, of course, the prevalent racism that permeates most sectors of American society and emerges in the form of distrust toward the Commander in Chief: Obama has to prove his loyalty to the country in ways not demanded from others. He has to pay the price of being the first Black president.A third hypothesis that is circulating among pundits is that Obama's focus on health care was misplaced, that he should have concentrated all his attention on economic recovery and job creation instead. Indeed, it was during the 2009 summer of discontent that the electorate became irreconcilably divided and that Republican-launched corrosive ads dominated the airwaves, and rumors about death panels and "pulling the plug on grandma" pervaded City Hall meetings. A general distrust of the federal government and of all incumbents inside the DC belt, while nothing new among the American electorate, re-emerged with new virulence.It is in this context that the Tea Party movement cut its teeth and started dominating the headlines. Spurred by the GOP with the intention of mobilizing the population around anti-tax, anti-federal government sentiments, the Tea-partiers launched national campaigns against all incumbents, and in the process became a voice for the profound anger, fear and frustration that the poor state of the economy and the sustained unemployment rate has caused in the population. Pleased at the frenzy stirred up by the movement, Republicans have complacently let it lead the way, exercising no restraint on their wildest propositions (see below) and allowing it to do the work for them as the voice of the opposition. This is already having unwanted consequences, as extremist Tea-party –fielded candidates from outside party ranks are challenging party insiders in gubernatorial as well as Congressional primary races.Like the eponymous rebellion that took place in Boston in 1773, the Tea Party's main philosophical thrust is against taxes, centralization of power and government overreach. Unlike it, it is also anti-immigrant. Because of the prevalent uncertainty about the economy, their discourse resonates with the electorate. To fight the federal government initiatives, they are finding their best institutional allies in the State governments, courts and legislatures. Indeed, judging by the poisonous political environment, the polarization of the electorate, and the state-based challenges to the federal government, at times it seems that only a Lincolnian figure can save America from another civil war.The so- called "States Revolution" is visible in many fronts. Five states have passed legislation against parts of the federal health reform law, and around 20 states are challenging its constitutionality through the court system. Several states legislatures are getting ready to pass laws modeled after the anti-immigration law in Arizona, which was deemed unconstitutional by a district court but has broad support in the population. It will probably end up in the Supreme Court, as challenges and counter-challenges continue. Interestingly, Obama is in fact deporting more undocumented workers than any of his predecessors, but his reform proposal would give a pathway to citizenship to these workers if they have a job, register with the US government, and pay a fine and back taxes. Immigration has been a thorny issue, with allies and foes on both sides of the aisle. After all, it was Ronald Reagan who gave amnesty to all illegal immigrants in 1986, and George Bush's proposal in 2006 was very similar to Obama's. This is hardly a philosophical issue on which the two parties diverge; it is just a populist cause that is being used by Republicans to stoke the flames of right-wing populism and racism prevalent in main sectors of the population.The backlash against undocumented workers is of such magnitude that it has come to encompass all immigrants. It has now taken the unlikely form of a movement to abolish or amend the 14th Amendment, a foundational provision dating from 1868 which grants citizenship to all born in the United States. The changing of the birth right rule is "worth considering" according to House Minority leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) because "it gives an incentive for people to come to the United States illegally to give birth here." This is outrageous pandering by the Republican Party who has always fathomed itself to be the staunchest defender of the Constitution, which they consider a sacred text to be read literally, with minimal interpretation. Such is the spirit of the times. Republican Senators Lindsay Graham and John McCain, the two most important and moderate voices on Immigration Reform have changed their positions (Mc Cain because he is facing a tough primary in his state of Arizona, against, who other, but a Tea Party candidate!) and have both agreed that it is worth a debate. This is not only unprincipled on their part, but also terrible long-term politics, since by taking this stance on immigration they are removing the possibility of regaining the support of the largest growing group of voters, namely the Hispanic or Latino population for years to come.Given the strong anti-incumbent and anti-Washington sentiment prevalent in the population, the results of the mid-term election are hard to predict because some Republicans may lose seats, too. However, the current projections of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia give the Republicans a net win of 32 seats in the House, 7 seats in the Senate (they would need 10 to become the majority) and 6-7 governor seats. The coming mid-term election is being compared to the 1994 "revolution" led by Newt Gingrich which gave Republicans a majority in both the House and Senate. Just like Obama, Clinton was an "outsider" who was handed the presidency partly thanks to his charisma, but mainly because people were disappointed at George Bush Senior, and did not re-elect him. Clinton made health care reform the centerpiece of his first term but failed to get it through Congress. He did manage to pass a controversial crime bill that included a ban on assault weapons, which the Right traditionally opposes. He also raised taxes. Republicans attacked him with an abrasive campaign in favor of lower taxes, second amendment rights and smaller government, and won. Two years later, however, with a brighter economic outlook and a pledge to balance the budget, Clinton was re-elected.But the parallel should not be exaggerated since there are many differences as well. First, Obama did pass health care reform, and that should count have some weight among his supporters, hopefully enough weight to bring them to the polls November 2. Second, the Republican Party's image was not as tarnished in 1994 as it is today, mainly because they hadn't had a majority in Congress for a long time. A New York Times/CBS News poll this past February found that 57% of those polled has negative views of the Republicans this time. The anger is aimed at Washington as a whole and this may help Democrats. The main concern of Democrats in the House and Senate today is the demographics of mid-term elections: older (over 60) white voters, who are the core group of the Tea Party movement and the most outspoken against Obama and this Congress, are also the most likely to vote in mid-term elections. And the "enthusiasm gap" on the Left may induce many Obama supporters to stay home. On the other hand, the Democratic Party learned the lesson of 1994 and is better prepared for the fight: they have been raising money from early on, setting up voters' registration campaigns and trying to mobilize the same base that brought Obama to power two years ago. They stress his activist legislative agenda and its accomplishments: financial reform, health care, extension of unemployment benefits, an energy bill that came short of cap and trade but will meet some green energy goals. More importantly, they are framing the election as a choice between going back to the policies that got the country into the Great Recession, or moving forward with the new policies of corporate responsibility, accountability and more federal supervision of financial institutions in order to avoid similar crises.However, what is clear is that the anemic state of the economy and the high and sustained unemployment rate make all other tactics irrelevant. Uncertainty rules supreme in the minds of the electorate and with it, a fear of what the future may bring and a lack of confidence in the federal government. The Republican opposition is united and vociferous and its message simple and clear: no more taxes, no more deficits, no more government intervention, close borders to immigrants and focus on private job creation through tax cuts; what the federal government won't do, states will. The President should probably counterattack in kind and engage in this ideological battle, but he is not temperamentally suited for it. He dislikes ideological arguments because he wants to be the President of all Americans, as he pledged during his campaign. The next big decision Obama needs to make is whether to let the Bush tax cuts expire after Labor Day or to extend them for two or three years. He has announced his intention to maintain them for the middle class but to end them for the wealthiest individuals, those in the highest 2% income bracket. It would bring their income tax up from 35% to 39%, not a dramatic raise but one that will be resisted strongly by the opposition. Although Obama has a good argument to make (that the $700 billion dollars thus raised would help him reduce the deficit dramatically), there is fear in Congress Democrats that a two- week debate about tax cuts will help Republicans. In a perversely cynical way, perhaps a Republican win in the congressional elections may not be a bad thing after all, and may yet help Obama: let the Republicans make his case for him, that he himself is reluctant to make. Let them stand the public scrutiny and let the public judge if they can provide better, more novel solutions to job creation, to Afghanistan, to immigration reform. A weak performance by a Republican-dominated 112th Congress, an economy that is bound to recover as it enters its next cycle, and a Palin-Huckabee ticket may still get Obama re-elected in 2012.Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia