When we launched the call to publish in the present issue, back in May of two thousand nineteen, we proposed to give an account, through the different productions, of the modifications produced in the living conditions of the subjects with whom we developed our intervention, and also of the modifications produced in our professional practice, since the establishment in Argentina of the third neoliberal wave. We know that the management of neoliberal governments unfailingly favors the interests of concentrated economic groups, to the detriment of the living conditions of the majority of the population. Thus, inequality is increasing, whether it is considered in regional, provincial or social terms. And this is true wherever and whenever neoliberalism is imposed as a socio-political model. The appearance of number 6 of Social Science, already averaging the year 2020, finds us -and this is central for the social sciences and particularly for social work- facing the profound consequences of a process of exclusionary modernization, which was rejected through the popular vote on October 27, 2019. Exclusion is based on a strong attack against acquired economic and socio-cultural rights, an attack that was made concrete through the closure of strategic state areas from the point of view of guaranteeing rights; through massive layoffs - which at the state level were associated with political persecution and at the private level with the need to discipline the workforce in order to guarantee the lowering of salaries. In summary, a scenario has been configured that has destroyed the inalienable rights of Argentine society, such as public education, the right to work, health, truthful information, freedom of expression, freedom of association and political participation. This is a regressive process that has already been tried on different occasions in our country, always with the same results: impoverishment, loss of rights and awareness of our rights. The present moment illuminates us with a dim light, which can be interpreted as either sunset or sunrise. In fact, neither of the two possibilities is guaranteed. However - and as a permanent and majority bet in the field of Social Work - we want to push for the dawn. In this perspective, the professionals that intervene in the social question can build a horizon that guides their practices. In it, the recognition that ours is at the same time a distributive and cultural practice occupies an important place. In the first dimension, we have the possibility of distributing use goods, with no other restrictions than those imposed by the context. And as a cultural practice, it is necessary to develop a discursive struggle that confronts aporophobia -hate towards the poor-; and secondly, to confront the rejection of social protection policies that predominate in common sense. From this point of view, we define ourselves by what Habermas calls the emancipatory interest that structures the critical sciences. Emancipatory interest is aimed, both subjectively and socially, at breaking, in what is within our reach, with the different forms of domination, and has emancipation as its horizon. As María Inés Peralta points out in her article for this issue, the emancipatory interest needs the exercise of criticism, which . " must be recovered, treasured, activated, updated in the light of what the current social practices summon us to think". This definition requires encouraging and renewing interest in the ethical dimension, both in training processes and in professional practice, overcoming the idea of ethics as a set of prohibitions and permissions, and facing it as a privileged space of inquiry about the social meaning of our professions, and the scope of our freedoms and responsibilities in our condition as professionals. And if this interest is addressed collectively, so much the better. Our practices and representations cannot be separated from their conditions of possibility: our analyses, our proposals, our criticisms, are inscribed in the conditions that geography and historical time exert on us. Historical time seems to be changing. Let us try to live up to this change. In terms of Michele de Certeau, let us be at the same time voyeurs and walkers, let us not grow old, let us continue to invent hour after hour the act of challenging the future. ; Cuando lanzamos la convocatoria para publicar en el presente número, allá por mayo de dos mil diecinueve, nos propusimos dar cuenta, a través de las distintas producciones, de las modificaciones producidas en las condiciones de vida de los sujetos con quienes desarrollamos nuestra intervención, y, también, de las modificaciones producidas en nuestro ejercicio profesional, a partir de la instauración en la Argentina de la tercera ola neoliberal. Sabemos que la gestión de los gobiernos neoliberales favorece indefectiblemente los intereses de los grupos económicos concentrados, en detrimento de las condiciones de vida de la mayoría de la población. Aumenta así, y de modo notable, la desigualdad., sea ésta considerada en términos regionales, provinciales o entre sectores sociales. Y ello es así en cualquier tiempo y lugar en que se imponga el neoliberalismo como modelo socio-político. La aparición del número 6 de ConCiencia Social, ya promediando el año 2020, nos encuentra –y esto es central para las ciencias sociales y particularmente para el trabajo social— afrontando las consecuencias profundas de un proceso de modernización excluyente, que fuera rechazado a través del voto popular el 27 de octubre de 2019. La exclusión radica en una fuerte embestida contra derechos económicos y socioculturales adquiridos, embestida que se concretó a través del cierre de áreas estatales estratégicas desde el punto de vista de la garantía de derechos; a través de despidos masivos —que a nivel estatal estuvieron asociados a la persecución política y a nivel privado a la necesidad de disciplinar la fuerza de trabajo de modo de garantizar la baja del salario—. En síntesis, ha quedado configurado un escenario que dio por tierra con derechos inalienables de la sociedad argentina como son la educación pública, el derecho al trabajo, a la salud, a la información veraz, a la libertad de expresión, a la libertad de asociación y de participación política. Se trata de un proceso regresivo que ya se ha ensayado en distintas oportunidades en nuestro país siempre con los mismos resultados: el empobrecimiento, la pérdida de derechos y de conciencia de nuestros derechos. El actual momento nos ilumina con una luz tenue, que puede ser interpretada como ocaso o como amanecer. Y es que en realidad ninguna de las dos posibilidades está asegurada. Sin embargo –y como apuesta permanente y mayoritaria en el campo del Trabajo Social— queremos empujar a que amanezca. En esta perspectiva, las/os profesionales que intervienen en la cuestión social pueden construir un horizonte que oriente sus prácticas. En él, ocupa un lugar importante el reconocimiento de que la nuestra es a la vez una práctica distributiva y cultural. En la primera dimensión, tenemos la posibilidad de distribuir bienes de uso, sin más restricciones que las que impone el contexto. Y en tanto práctica cultural, resulta necesario desarrollar una lucha discursiva que enfrente a la aporofobia –odio hacia los pobres—; y en segundo lugar, enfrentar el rechazo hacia las políticas de protección social que predominan en el sentido común. Desde este punto de vista, nos definimos por lo que Habermas llama el interés emancipatorio que estructura las ciencias críticas. El interés emancipatorio se dirige, tanto subjetiva como socialmente, a romper, en lo que está a nuestro alcance, con las distintas formas de dominación, y tiene como horizonte la emancipación. Como señala María Inés Peralta en su artículo para este número, el interés emancipatorio necesita del ejercicio de la crítica, la cual …" debe ser recuperada, atesorada, activada, actualizada a la luz de lo que las prácticas sociales actuales nos convocan a pensar". Esta definición exige animar y renovar el interés por la dimensión ética, tanto en los procesos de formación como en el ejercicio profesional, superando la idea de la ética como conjunto de prohibiciones y de permisos, y encarándola como espacio privilegiado de indagación acerca del significado social de nuestras profesiones, y del alcance de nuestras libertades y responsabilidades en nuestra condición de profesionales. Y si este interés es abordado colectivamente, tanto mejor. Nuestras prácticas y representaciones no pueden sustraerse de sus condiciones de posibilidad: nuestros análisis, nuestras propuestas, nuestras críticas, se inscriben en las condiciones que la geografía y el tiempo histórico ejercen sobre nosotros. El tiempo histórico parece estar cambiando. Intentemos estar a la altura de ese cambio. En términos de Michele de Certeau, seamos al mismo tiempo mirones y caminantes, no envejezcamos, sigamos inventando hora tras hora el acto de desafiar el porvenir. ; Quando lançamos o chamado para publicar no presente número, em maio de dois mil e dezenove, propusemos dar conta, através das diferentes produções, das modificações produzidas nas condições de vida dos sujeitos com os quais desenvolvemos nossa intervenção, e também das modificações produzidas em nossa prática profissional, desde o estabelecimento na Argentina da terceira onda neoliberal. Sabemos que a gestão dos governos neoliberais favorece infalivelmente os interesses dos grupos econômicos concentrados, em detrimento das condições de vida da maioria da população. Assim, a desigualdade está aumentando, seja ela considerada em termos regionais, provinciais ou sociais. E isto é verdade onde e quando o neoliberalismo é imposto como um modelo sócio-político. O surgimento do número 6 das Ciências Sociais, já na média do ano 2020, nos encontra - e isto é central para as ciências sociais e particularmente para o trabalho social - enfrentando as profundas conseqüências de um processo de modernização excludente, que foi rejeitado através do voto popular de 27 de outubro de 2019. A exclusão baseia-se num forte ataque aos direitos econômicos e socioculturais adquiridos, um ataque que se concretizou através do fechamento de áreas estratégicas do Estado do ponto de vista da garantia de direitos; através de demissões massivas - que a nível estatal estavam associadas à perseguição política e a nível privado à necessidade de disciplinar a força de trabalho para garantir a diminuição dos salários. Em resumo, foi configurado um cenário que destruiu os direitos inalienáveis da sociedade argentina, como a educação pública, o direito ao trabalho, a saúde, a informação verdadeira, a liberdade de expressão, a liberdade de associação e a participação política. Este é um processo regressivo que já foi tentado em diferentes ocasiões em nosso país, sempre com os mesmos resultados: empobrecimento, perda de direitos e consciência de nossos direitos. O momento presente nos ilumina com uma luz fraca, que pode ser interpretada como o pôr do sol ou o nascer do sol. Na verdade, nenhuma das duas possibilidades é garantida. Entretanto - e como aposta permanente e majoritária no campo do Trabalho Social - queremos empurrar para o amanhecer. Nesta perspectiva, os profissionais que intervêm na questão social podem construir um horizonte que oriente suas práticas. Nele, o reconhecimento de que a nossa é ao mesmo tempo uma prática distributiva e cultural ocupa um lugar importante. Na primeira dimensão, temos a possibilidade de distribuir bens de uso, sem outras restrições além daquelas impostas pelo contexto. E, como prática cultural, é necessário desenvolver uma luta discursiva que enfrente a aporofobia - o ódio aos pobres - e, em segundo lugar, enfrentar a rejeição às políticas de proteção social que predominam no senso comum. Desse ponto de vista, nos definimos pelo que Habermas chama de interesse emancipatório que estrutura as ciências críticas. O interesse emancipatório visa, tanto subjetiva quanto socialmente, a ruptura, no que está ao nosso alcance, com as diferentes formas de dominação, e tem a emancipação como horizonte. Como aponta María Inés Peralta em seu artigo para este número, o interesse emancipatório precisa do exercício da crítica, que . "deve ser recuperado, valorizado, ativado, atualizado à luz do que as práticas sociais atuais nos convocam a pensar". Essa definição exige o incentivo e a renovação do interesse pela dimensão ética, tanto nos processos de formação quanto na prática profissional, superando a idéia da ética como um conjunto de proibições e permissões e encarando-a como um espaço privilegiado de investigação sobre o significado social de nossas profissões e o alcance de nossas liberdades e responsabilidades em nossa condição de profissionais. E se esse interesse for abordado coletivamente, tanto melhor. Nossas práticas e representações não podem ser separadas de suas condições de possibilidade: nossas análises, nossas propostas, nossas críticas, estão inscritas nas condições que a geografia e o tempo histórico exercem sobre nós. O tempo histórico parece estar mudando. Vamos tentar estar à altura desta mudança. Em termos de Michele de Certeau, sejamos ao mesmo tempo voyeurs e caminhantes, não envelheçamos, continuemos a inventar hora após hora o ato de desafiar o futuro.
La corrupción en la contratación pública ha sido un fenómeno que aunque no es para nada nuevo, actualmente es materia de interés a nivel nacional e internacional debido al avance que ha tenido en cada uno de los campos de acción a nivel de la Administración Pública. Tal es su avance, que las formas delictuales a través de las cuales se manifiesta dejan con asombro hasta a los países más desarrollados en materia normativa y contractual. Además, se observa que la necesidad del servidor público de enriquecerse con el patrimonio estatal lo lleva a incurrir en conductas que son lesivas y contraproducentes tanto para la Administración Pública como para la sociedad; puesto que como resultado del detrimento patrimonial del Estado, menores serán los recursos para la inversión social, empresarial, salud y demás áreas que permitan el desarrollo del país y como consecuencia no habrá un desarrollo económico adecuado que permita erradicar la pobreza generada y el avance constante de lugares geográficos poco desarrollados, atentando contra la legitimidad del Estado. Como veremos más adelante en el desarrollo de este trabajo, la corrupción en la contratación estatal específicamente en la licitación pública es más común de lo que se cree, por ello veremos las diversas tipologías de corrupción en esta modalidad de contratación, ya que en la mayoría de los casos estas conductas son realizadas con pleno conocimiento de la ley. De ahí, que Transparencia Internacional tenga el siguiente concepto sobre la corrupción: La corrupción es una manifestación de las debilidades institucionales, bajo estándares morales, incentivos sesgados y falta de aplicación de la ley. El comportamiento corrupto deriva beneficios ilícitos a una persona o grupo pequeño al ignorar reglas que han sido diseñadas para garantizar la imparcialidad y eficiencia. Produce resultados injustos, ineficientes y antieconómicos. Las recompensas ilícitas para un grupo pequeño que rompe las reglas se producen a expensas de la comunidad en general. Existen otros perdedores individuales, como aquellos que son obligados a pagar sobornos, los que se les niega el derecho a beneficios por no poder pagarlos y los que pierden licitaciones para suministrar bienes o servicios debido a sobornos pagados por otros. La corrupción en la contratación estatal arrasa completamente con los principios plasmados en la Ley 80 de 1993, texto base para el desarrollo total del tema en las entidades públicas. Principios como la transparencia, la selección objetiva, la igualdad, economía, planeación, etc. son los cimientos en los cuales toda entidad se debe apoyar para que un proceso contractual sea exitoso, y así evitar que en medio del camino se presenten situaciones extraordinarias que deriven en una terminación anormal del proceso o la adjudicación de un contrato a un proponente equivocado. Cabe destacar que el fenómeno no es simplemente en la contratación a nivel Colombia sino también es a nivel internacional, se observa la preocupación de Organizaciones Internacionales como la OEA, la OMC, la OCDE, Transparencia Internacional, etc., que han realizado estudios que propenden buscar cómo la corrupción en la contratación sigue abriéndose camino y por qué aumenta de forma alarmante. Es preciso resaltar la labor del Gobierno Nacional en cuanto al tema, puesto que en los últimos años se ha creado la Secretaría de Transparencia de la Presidencia de la República y en el año 2011 fue expedida la Ley 1474 denominada Estatuto Anticorrupción, en la cual se establecen medidas penales, disciplinarias y administrativas. Estas medidas de alguna manera brindan cierto parte de tranquilidad a la ciudadanía, quien ya tiene una idea preconcebida de no participar en procesos de contratación por creer que los pliegos de condiciones están hechos y ajustados para entregar a personas específicas, sin tener en cuenta los demás proponentes. Así mismo, la expedición de múltiples normas en materia de Contratación Pública, sigue en auge. Ello se evidencia con la expedición de la Ley 1150 de 2007, que modifico la Ley 80 de 1993, posteriormente fue promulgada la Ley 1474 de 2011 como se indicó anteriormente y el Decreto Ley 019 de 2012, algunos decretos reglamentarios (2474 de 2008, 2025 de 2009, 3576 de 2009, 4266 de 2010, 734 de 2012), este último derogado por el decreto 1510 de 2013 y este a su vez por el 1082 de 2015. En algunas de estas modificaciones, el legislador ha querido introducir medidas para combatir la corrupción, ya que ésta se ha venido convirtiendo en un obstáculo para la adecuada inversión de los recursos públicos, a través de la incorporación de modalidades de contratación como la subasta inversa, la aplicación de algunos criterios para la selección y evaluación de propuestas, la aplicación de reglas de subsanabilidad, la aplicación de principios en la selección de contratistas, etc., disposiciones que deben generar un cambio positivo en los servidores que tienen a cargo la inmensa responsabilidad de brindar mejores condiciones de vida a los gobernados. La aplicación de la ética por parte de los servidores públicos que tienen a cargo la actividad permanente en la contratación estatal se ha venido reduciendo de manera que afecta los intereses de la comunidad, cada vez es más visible esta conducta y cada vez el Estado busca medidas para combatir este flagelo, sin lograr resultados positivos. Es por ello, que lo que se busca con este trabajo es profundizar un poco más en la normatividad expedida en materia de contratación pública y ver qué tan favorable ha sido la creación de las mismas en pro de la lucha contra la corrupción sin perder de vista claro está el esfuerzo que ha hecho el legislador para estar a la vanguardia tanto nacional como internacional, teniendo como soporte la agencia Colombia Compra Eficiente quien ha surgido con el fin de dar un enfoque más organizado y eficiente a la contratación, permitiendo unificar documentos, guías y manuales que anteriormente no se acostumbraba a utilizar, pero que ha sido una herramienta útil para el desarrollo de la actividad en las entidades estatales. De allí que para finalizar, daremos un vistazo a la reforma que presenta Colombia Compra Eficiente y así orientarnos hacía donde va dicha reforma y cuáles son los cambios más enfáticos que generaran un vuelco completo al procedimiento actual establecido en el Decreto 1082 de 2015 y demás normas concordantes. Pero algo que en necesario tener presente es que si los servidores públicos no cambian la mentalidad que busca solo generar beneficios en pro de sus intereses particulares, muy difícilmente habrá disminución de la corrupción así la producción normativa traiga consigo múltiples avances en materia contractual. ; Corruption in public procurement has been a phenomenon that, although not new at all, is currently a matter of national and international interest due to the progress it has made in each of the fields of action at the level of the Public Administration. Such is their progress, that the criminal forms through which it manifests leave with astonishment even the most developed countries in normative and contractual. In addition, it is observed that the need of the public servant to be enriched with the state patrimony leads him to engage in conduct that is harmful and counterproductive both for the Public Administration and for society; Since as a result of the patrimonial detriment of the State, the resources for social investment, business, health and other areas that allow the development of the country will be less and as a consequence there will not be adequate economic development that will eradicate the poverty generated and the constant advance Of geographically undeveloped places, undermining the legitimacy of the State. As we will see later in the development of this work, corruption in state procurement specifically in public bidding is more common than is believed, so we will see the various typologies of corruption in this modality of contracting, since in most Of cases these behaviors are carried out with full knowledge of the law. Hence, Transparency International has the following concept on corruption: "Corruption is a manifestation of institutional weaknesses, under moral standards, biased incentives, and lack of law enforcement. Corrupt behavior derives illicit benefits to a person or small group by ignoring rules that have been designed to ensure impartiality and efficiency. It produces unfair, inefficient and uneconomical results. The illicit rewards for a small group that breaks the rules occur at the expense of the community at large. There are other individual losers, such as those who are forced to pay bribes, who are denied the right to benefits for not being able to pay them and those who lose tenders to supply goods or services due to bribes paid by others" Corruption in state contracting completely destroys the principles embodied in Law 80 of 1993, basic text for the total development of the subject in public entities. Principles such as transparency, objective selection, equality, economics, planning, etc. Are the foundation on which every entity should be supported in order for a contractual process to be successful, and thus avoid that in the middle of the road extraordinary situations arise that lead to an abnormal termination of the process or the award of a contract to a wrong bidder. It should be noted that the phenomenon is not only in Colombia, but also at the international level. Concerns have been expressed by international organizations such as the OAS, WTO, OECD, Transparency International, etc., which have carried out studies Look for how corruption in hiring continues to make its way and why it increases alarmingly. It is important to emphasize the work of the National Government on the subject, since in recent years the Secretariat of Transparency of the Presidency of the Republic has been created and Law 1474 was issued in 2011, called the AntiCorruption Statute, in which Criminal, disciplinary and administrative measures. These measures somehow provide some peace of mind to the citizens, who already have a preconceived idea of not participating in recruitment processes because they believe that the specifications are made and adjusted to deliver to specific people, regardless of others Proposers. Also, the issuance of multiple rules in the field of Public Procurement, continues to boom. This is evidenced by the issuance of Law 1150 of 2007, which amended Law 80 of 1993, subsequently was enacted Law 1474 of 2011 as indicated above and Decree Law 019 of 2012, some regulatory decrees (2474 of 2008, 2025 2009, 3576 of 2009, 4266 of 2010, 734 of 2012), the latter repealed by decree 1510 of 2013 and this in turn by 1082 of 2015. In some of these amendments, the legislator has wanted to introduce measures to combat corruption, since it has become an obstacle to the adequate investment of public resources, through the incorporation of contracting modalities such as reverse auction, The application of certain criteria for the selection and evaluation of proposals, the application of rules of rectification, the application of principles in the selection of contractors, etc., dispositions that must generate a positive change in the servers that have in charge the immense responsibility To provide better living conditions to the governed. The application of ethics by the public servants who are in charge of the permanent activity in state contracting has been reducing in a way that affects the interests of the community, this behavior is increasingly visible and increasingly the State seeks measures To combat this scourge, without achieving positive results. That is why, what is sought with this work is to go deeper into the regulations issued in the area of public procurement and see how favorable has been the creation of the same for the fight against corruption without losing sight of It is clear the effort that has made the legislator to be at the forefront both nationally and internationally, having as support the agency Colombia Compra Eficiente who has arisen in order to give a more organized and efficient approach to hiring, allowing to unify documents, guides And manuals that were not previously used to use, but which has been a useful tool for the development of the activity in the state entities. Hence, to conclude, we will take a look at the reform that Colombia Compra Eficiente presents and thus guide us to where this reform is going and what are the most emphatic changes that will generate a complete overturn to the current procedure established in Decree 1082 of 2015 and other norms Concordant. But something that needs to be kept in mind is that if public servants do not change the mentality that only seeks to generate profits in favor of their particular interests, there will be hardly any reduction of corruption, so that normative production will bring with it many advances in contractual matters.
La gestión de los recursos pesqueros de la Unión Europea ha estado principalmente basada, desde los inicios de la Política Pesquera Común (PPC), en el establecimiento de Totales Admisibles de Captura (TAC) monoespecíficos, es decir en topes de captura individuales para cada especie o stock. Sin embargo, este sistema puede llegar a provocar grandes inconsistencias en la gestión de pesquerías mixtas donde diferentes especies son capturadas de forma simultánea por las mismas flotas, ya que facilita la práctica del descarte impidiendo la recuperación de algunos de los stocks más sensibles. Esta evidencia motivó el replanteamiento de algunos de los aspectos de la actual PPC implementada en 2002, lo que conllevó el desarrollo de nuevos enfoques también en su asesoramiento científico. No obstante, las profundas consecuencias de dichos cambios en el proceso de asesoramiento, desde el replanteamiento de programas de recopilación de datos pesqueros hasta el desarrollo de nuevas metodologías con las que modelar la complejidad de un sistema pesquero multi‐stock y multi‐flotas, han provocado que su aplicación directa a la gestión de los recursos pesqueros europeos haya sido particularmente lenta y complicada. Por ello, el objetivo principal de esta memoria es el planteamiento y realización del trabajo analítico necesario para aplicar el enfoque de gestión de pesquerías mixtas sobre la actividad de una de las flotas españolas de aguas europeas, en particular la que faena en aguas atlánticas no ibéricas. Así, los resultados obtenidos podrán servir de base al asesoramiento científico que tanto el Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO), a escala nacional, como el Consejo Internacional para la Exploración del Mar (ICES), a nivel europeo, proporcionan a la Comisión Europea, que es la institución encargada de proponer al Consejo y Parlamento Europeos las medidas de gestión de recursos pesqueros que deben cumplir las flotas de los Estados miembros. Para alcanzar este objetivo, el trabajo ha sido estructurado en cuatro grandes bloques, cada uno de los cuales aborda aspectos fundamentales que proporcionan resultados finales en sí mismos, pero que, una vez integrados, permiten desarrollar un protocolo de análisis de gestión de pesquerías mixtas para el caso de estudio. Después de una introducción a los conceptos básicos de la gestión de pesquerías (Sección 1), así como las consecuencias que el replanteamiento de la actual PPC ha tenido en el actual contexto de gestión de los recursos pesqueros europeos, la Sección 2 resume una pormenorizada revisión de las aportaciones de la comunidad científica en el campo del modelado de las pesquerías mixtas, así como la recensión y descripción de los métodos predictivos de gestión de pesquerías mixtas más relevantes. Tras una valoración comparativa en que se analizan las ventajas y desventajas de cada uno de ellos, se procede a la selección del más apropiado para ser aplicado en el marco de la gestión pesquera europea, identificando al método Fcube como el que más fielmente permite integrar los objetivos de explotación sostenible de los recursos junto al cumplimiento del principio de estabilidad relativa, base del actual esquema de reparto de derechos de pesca entre Estados miembros. La Sección 3 presenta los resultados del análisis de la actividad pesquera de la flota española de aguas europeas atlánticas no ibéricas a través de sus propios diarios de pesca, a partir de los cuales es clasificada y ordenada en segmentos de flota acordes a los requerimientos tanto del método Fcube como de las directrices de la PPC. La caracterización de su actividad y características técnicas es fundamental para captar la dinámica sobre la que poder fijar las vías de intercambio de esfuerzo en un análisis de gestión de pesquerías mixtas. No obstante, para poder establecer una mejor conexión entre los objetivos de conservación de los recursos y la sostenibilidad económico‐social del sector pesquero se necesita la desagregación de la actividad pesquera en grupos homogéneos según su perfil de captura (métiers). Esta tarea, que puede resultar sencilla cuando se conoce la especie o grupo de especies objetivo de cada campaña pesquera, se complica cuando éstas no son expresamente registradas, como ocurre en los diarios de pesca oficiales de la Unión Europea. En estos casos resulta imprescindible recurrir a métodos más complejos para poder inferirlas, como es el uso combinado de métodos de análisis multivariante y programas de entrevistas a los pescadores, tal como se propone y desarrolla en la Sección 4. Finalmente, empleando el método Fcube seleccionado en la Sección 2, y conforme a los segmentos de flota y métiers obtenidos en las Secciones 3 y 4, en la Sección 5 se procede al análisis de gestión de pesquerías mixtas del caso de estudio. En cuanto a los stocks incluidos, esta misma sección abarca una completa revisión de la gestión de los stocks más relevantes para la flota de estudio, identificando aquellos que se encuentran sujetos a TAC de tipo analítico, esto es basado en evaluaciones científicas. De este modo, es posible obtener estimaciones de su biomasa (B) y mortalidades pesquera (F) y natural (M), parámetros poblaciones que el método Fcube requiriere para la parametrización de cada stock. Paralelamente, también se procede a la búsqueda de datos económicos con los que ampliar el enfoque biológico de estos análisis con los procesos de optimización económica del módulo FcubEcon del método Fcube. A partir de estos datos se desarrollan una serie de escenarios basados en medidas de gestión vigentes, pero también otros de índole exploratoria con los que examinar la capacidad predictiva del método Fcube o anticipar las consecuencias de determinadas opciones de gestión. En este sentido, a los límites de captura (TAC) de los stocks incluidos en los análisis se añaden también medidas de gestión de esfuerzo o el establecimiento de zonas de veda. Como conclusión general (Sección 6), se puede resumir que los resultados obtenidos han permitido, por un lado, ampliar el conocimiento sobre las interacciones técnicas de las pesquerías mixtas del caso de estudio, pero también perfeccionar aspectos de cálculo del método Fcube. Sin embargo, el objetivo de proporcionar un asesoramiento operativo a la gestión real de las pesquerías mixtas del caso de estudio no llega a alcanzarse debido a la ausencia generalizada de una base científica avalada en la gestión monoespecífica actual de sus principales stocks. Naturalmente, una vez quede subsanada esta deficiencia, la contribución del trabajo aquí presentado permitirá que el análisis de gestión de pesquerías mixtas de la flota española de aguas europeas atlánticas no ibéricas pueda ser fácilmente integrado en el proceso rutinario de asesoramiento que instituciones nacionales e internacionales, como IEO o ICES, proporcionan a la Comisión Europea ; The management of EU fishery resources has been mainly based on mono‐specific "Total Allowable Catch" (TAC) since the implementation of the first "Common Fisheries Policy" (CFP), i.e. catch thresholds by stock. Nevertheless, this approach may lead to high inconsistencies in mixed‐fisheries management where a number of species are simultaneously caught by the same fleets, because this system facilitates discarding practices which impair the recovery of sensitive stocks. This evidence led to re‐evaluation of some of the basic aspects of the present CFP implemented in 2002, leading also to the development of new approaches in its scientific assessment. However, the deep consequences of these challenges in the advisory process, from the re‐design of fishery data collection programmes to the development of novel methodologies to parameterize the complexity of a multi‐stock multi‐fleet fishery system, have led to a slow and complicated implementation of the fishery sampling and analysis programmes of most Member States. Therefore, the main focus of this Thesis is to plan and develop the analytical framework needed to apply the mixed‐fisheries management approach to the activity of Spanish fleets in European waters, particularly the fleet operating in non‐Spanish Atlantic waters. Thus, the results obtained may be used as a base for the scientific advice that either "Instituto Español de Oceanografía" (IEO), at the national level, or "International Council for the Exploration of the Sea" (ICES), at European level, provide to the European Commission to propose fishery management measures that the European Council and the European Parliament enforce in relation to the Member States' fleets. In order to achieve this objective, this Thesis has been organized into four main blocks, each one involving essential aspects which provide final results themselves, but also, once they are linked, provide the building blocks to satisfactorily achieve this task. After the introduction of basic concepts related to fishery management (Chapter 1), as well as the consequences of the new CFP in the present context of European fishery management, Chapter 2 provides a detailed review of the scientific community´s contributions in mixed‐fishery modelling, including a list and description of the more relevant mixed‐fisheries forecasting methods. A comparison of their analytical approaches facilitates the determination of advantages and disadvantages in order to identify the most suitable method to integrate the particular requirements of such a complex management system as the European system, where besides seeking the sustainable exploitation of fishery resources, the Relative Stability Principle, the basis of the present allocation system among Member States, needs also to be followed. Chapter 3 shows the results of analyses of fishing activity by the Spanish fleet in non‐Spanish Atlantic European waters by using data from their logbooks, in order to classify and organize the fleet into segments in accordance with both Fcube and CFP requirements. The knowledge of the activity and technical characteristics by fleet segment is basic to capture their spatial‐temporal dynamics, based on which it is possible to set the mechanism for effort distribution. However, in order to better link the targets of fishery resources conservation and economic‐social sustainability of the fishery sector, it is necessary to disaggregate the fishery activity into homogeneous groups according to their catch profile (métiers). This task, which can be simple when the target species are known, becomes particularly complicated when the target species are not registered in logbooks, as happens in the official European logbooks. In this case, it is necessary to make inferences by using more complex methods, such as the combined use of multivariate methods followed by interviews with skippers (Chapter 4). Finally, using the fleet segments from Chapter 3 and the métiers obtained in Chapter 4, the analyses of mixed‐fisheries management of the case study fleets are carried out by applying the Fcube method selected in Chapter 2: Chapter 5. Regarding the stocks taken into account, this Chapter also includes an in‐depth review of the case study stocks with analytical TAC, i.e. based on scientific assessments. Thus it is possible to obtain the biological parameters required by the Fcube method to parameterize each stock: biomass (B), fishery mortality (F), and natural mortality (M). Simultaneously, economic data are also obtained to broaden the biological approach with the economic optimization by the Fcube's module (FcubEcon). Finally, by using all these data, a number of management scenarios are explored, based on real or proposed exploratory management measures in order to test the capacity of Fcube and to anticipate the consequences of different management measures. Thus, the consequences of catch control measures (TAC) are analyzed jointly with effort‐based and area‐based management measures. As general conclusion (Chapter 6), it can be concluded that the results obtained have served, on the one hand, to broaden our knowledge of technical interactions in the case study mixed‐fisheries, and on the other hand, to improve some calculation processes within the Fcube method. Nevertheless, the main objective of providing operational mixed‐fisheries assessments in the current context of the Spanish fleets in non‐Spanish Atlantic European waters has not been completely achieved, because of the lack of an officially accepted scientific basis for management of most stocks. However, once this deficiency is repaired, this Thesis' contributions to knowledge of fleet dynamics for the case study will facilitate the integration of their mixed‐fisheries management analyses into the standard assessment process developed by national and European institutes, such as IEO and ICES, in order to provide advice to the European Commission
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PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTISERS. **»♦«♦«**»«««♦*$' Good Work Low Prices Publishers ot THE GETTYSBURG NEWS 142 Carlisle St., Gettysburg, Pa. BIIIE1EII if LITTLE, LTD. AMOS ECKERT Latest Styles in HATS, SHOES AND GENT'S FURNISHING .Our specialty. WALK-OVER SHOE AMOS ECKERT Prices always right The Lutheran puhl^pg poitfe. No. 1424 Arch Street PHILADELPHIA, PA. Acknowledged Headquarters for anything and everything in the way of Books for Churches, Col-leges, Families and Schools, and literature for Sunday Schools. PLEASE REMEMBER That by sending your orders to us you help build up and devel-op one of the church institutions with pecuniary advantage to yourself. Address H. S. BONER, Supt. THE GETTYSBURG JIEKCURY The Literary Journal of Gettysburg College VOL. XII. GETTYSBURG, PA., MAY, 1903 No. 3 CONTENTS THE TOMB OF HIS FATHERS (Poem) . 80 THE INFLUENCE OF STOIC PHILOSOPHY ON ROMAN LAW 81 RALPH H. BERGSTRESSER, '03. A STUDY FROM LIFE 85 HERBERT L. STIFEL, '03. THE HIGHWAY TO SCHOLARSHIP 88 VERA L. WAGNER, '06. RETURN OF PERSEPHONE (Poem) 91 THE NEGRO—HIS DEMANDS AND PROSPECTS . . 93 NORMAN S. WOLF, '04. A MIDNIGHT ADVENTURE 101 J. GARFIELD DILLER, '04. INSTRUCTION BY MEANS OF PICTURES . . .106 A. L. DlLLENBECK, '05. EDITORIALS 108 EXCHANGES no 8o THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. THE TOMB OF HIS FATHERS. FROM THE GERMAN OF UHLAND. I LOWLY he went o'er the meadows To the chapel above the wood ; There, a gray-haired knight in armor, In the darkened choir he stood. The coffins of his fathers Stood close along the wall; A wondrous song came in warning From the depths of the vaulted hall. 'Plainly I hear your greeting, Ye spirits of heroes dead. Now hail me, for I am worthy And am come to share your bed." There stood in a sheltered corner A coffin yet unfilled ; For his resting place he took it, For a pillow he took his shield. His hands on his sword he folded And peacefully fell asleep. The ghostly songs grew silent, For here must be silence deep. it THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 81 THE INFLUENCE OF STOIC PHILOSOPHY ON ROMAN LAW. RAI.PH H. BERGSTRESSER, '03. IN order to form a correct conception of Stoicism we must remember that it was not merely a system of ethics, but a religion raised upon the ruins of polytheism ; that it was not the work of a single individual, but a collection of doctrines from different sources which meet in one and the same channel like the tributaries of a river. Hence its practical turn, and the complex nature of its teachings. The Stoics had no fixed dogmas concerning theoretical ques-tions of religion ; one might believe in immortality or not with-out ceasing to be a disciple of Stoa. What constituted the Stoic, and united all the members of the school, was their motto, "Virtue for virtue's sake." The "summum bonum," according to Stoicism, is to do your duty because it is your duty; everything else, health, fortunes, honors and pleasures, are indifferent and even bad, when they are the sole objects of your strivings. Virtue alone has the power of making us happy, providing we seek it in a disinterested manner. Every-thing is decreed by Fate and nature; therefore let come what may, the Stoic is resigned. His supreme rule is "sequi na-turam," that is, to follow the law which nature enjoins upon conscience, and which is identical with the law that governs the world. Before the introduction of Stoicism, the tyranny of the Ro-man emperors seems incredible to us, viewing it as we do from a great distance of time and place. It is not so much the bar-barity of the despot—released from all fear of God, and over-whelmed at the same time with the fear of man—as the pa-tience of the subjects, that moves our wonder and appears at first sight among the inscrutable problems of history. Are we not able to find a solution of this in the tyranny of the Roman families ? The viciousness of their own institutions, their own personal habits and usages, hardened them against the sense of 82 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. wrong and suffering. Whenever the Roman entered his own dwelling, the slave chained to the door-way, the marks of the iron and the cord upon the faces of his domestics, all impressed him with the feeling that he was a despot himself; for despot and master were only other words for the same fearful thing— the irresponsible owner of a horde of human chattels. Ty-ranny was his own birthright; how could he resent its exercise in another? Roman Imperialism allowed the freest discussion of Stoic philosophy, although, no doubt the object was to direct the attention from politics. Stoicism, however, held aloof from the practical workings of the world, and it has frequently been taunted for the hopeless distance at which it stood from the sympathies of mankind in general. But let the Stoics be judged solely by what they attempted. Their aims were high. They sought to make some men more than human. The empire for which they sighed was the empire of the best and wisest, the oligarchy of reason. But, according to-a noted scholar, their aspirations were really less visionary and unpractical. They descended from the clouds to the earth to impregnate with noble and fruitful principles such forms of government as were actually accessible to them. The point of contact between the Stoic Philosophy and Roman Law is to be found in the Law of Nature, and this con-ception of the jus naturale worked its way into the Roman thought, and was used to explain not only the foundation of individual and social morality, but also the basis of legal rights and obligations. From the time of Alexander Severus, the legal literature of Rome is pervaded with the idea that law has a more ultimate foundation than custom or convention—that it is founded on the nature of things. "The influence of Stoicism upon Roman Law," according to Maine, "is not to be judged by mere repetitions of moral pre-cepts, but rather upon the prevalent belief in Natural Law as the ethical basis of civil law, by the general recognition of the supremacy of reason as a guide in civil action, and by the common method which came to be employed of interpreting THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 83 legal duties in the light of the higher principles of Natural Equity." One of the first changes was noticed in the new meaning attached to the jus gentium. The term was originally applied to the body of customs common to Rome, and the states sub-ject to Roman dominion. When viewed in the light of the jus naturale, the edicts of the praetors, instead of being viewed merely as arbitrary laws, were considered as the remains of that primitive law which the Universal Reason had instituted for all men. Gains says that "the law which natural reason has con-stituted for all men obtains equally among all nations and is called the jus gentium." As a natural result of the adoption of Stoicism, slavery was condemned. It was no longer considered to be an eternal law of nature. The new light in which the Stoic viewed the affairs of life, taught him to recognize the moral government of the world as a system of mysterious wisdom and mercy besides which the idea of slavery was incongruous. One of the greatest changes effected by the new philosophy was the abolition of domestic tyranny. The .authority of the father had been without limit. As far as the restraints of law were concerned he was despot in the household. He had over its members the right to inflict death. From the time of the introduction of Stoicism the authority of the father began to be reduced. The paternal power, the patria potestas, was curtailed. Christianity also contributed to this reform. How far the milder sentiments of Christianity were active in modifying the thought and feeling is a question difficult to settle. This is certain, that the Stoic teachings tended strongly from the be-ginning to such a result. Regarding the influence of Stoicism upon Roman Law, dif-ferent opinions have been advocated by different writers. Some profess to find the Roman Law filled with particular precepts drawn from the Stoic philosophy ; while others seem to qustion the reality of any Stoical influence whatever. "The view which seems most reasonable," says Morrey, "is that the Stoic theory of natural law exercised a positive influence upon the legal 84 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. thought of Rome, exhibited not so much in the form of partic-ular rules, as in the general principles which controlled the methods of interpretation employed by the jurists." ^i,- A MEMORY. The March winds blow across the fields With clamorous trumpeting ; And to my heart there comes a dream Of a long vanished spring. The scent of the lilac-perfumed air Within a garden old, Where grew sweet-blossomed mignonette, Pansy and marigold. And there was one who culled the flowers Theirs was a happy lot, The lily with its heart of gold, The blue forget-me-not. Ah, little maid of long ago, Who, with your spring time flowers Comes from the past to gladden |me, And cheer my dreamy hours. No fairer flower ever grew Nor one with daintier grace, Than you, with sunlight in your hair, And rose hue in your face. The flowers sweet long since are gone, No more they greet the dew ; But ever in my heart is kept The memory of you. So to that heart there comes a dream When wild the March winds blow, A maiden in a garden old A spring time long ago. —University of Virginia Magazine. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 85 A STUDY FROM LIFE. HERBERT L. STIFEI., '03. IT was the night of the President's reception. Jack Burton and Donald Hastings, who had taken charge of an alum-nus that evening, were strolling along the leafy campus paths, listening to his tales of college life long ago. The alumnus was telling the story of an old hazing expedition in which he had taken part back in the fifties. When he had finished and the laugh was over, he suddenly became grave and after a mo-ment's silence said in a low tone, "Poor old Bill 'Knox was* in that, too. He was one of our men. Did you fellows ever hear his story ?" "No," replied Hastings. "I've seen his name in the records, but very little is given about him there." The alumnus threw away his cigar: "Well, it's a queer tale. Knox was a good, conscientious fellow, the kind you would have for one of ycur Y. M. C. A. presidents now, and he was very much interested in another man, a classmate by the name of Phillips. This man Phillips was a tough case ; he had been a mighty bright and promising young fellow when he came to college, but he got into the wrong crowd and certainly did go down hill fast. Drink ! I've seen a bit of the world for the past thirty years, but I never saw a man drink the way he did. I-Ie seldom drew a sober breath. Well, Bill liked the fellow and tried and tried to reform him, but it was no good until that night in '59 when the dormitory burned down. Phillips was lying in his room dead drunk. He would have been burned to death that night if Knox hadn't thought of him and dragged him out at the risk of his own life. Both of them were in the hospital for a month and a half after that. From that time on Phillips was a changed man. The two became inseparable and under Bill's influence he pulled himself up until he was the man he had been at the beginning of his course. Naturally bright, he gradually rose until at Commencement he stood sec-ond in his class. The one man above him was Bill Knox. 86 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. After graduation they opened a law office in partnership, and when the Civil War broke out, they both answered Lincoln's call for volunteers, and enlisted in the same company. "The rest of the story I heard from Phillips. During the third year of the war, Bill's misfortune began. Just after the battle of Gettysburg a message came to him that his wife was dying—he had married Bess Lawrence, one of the town girls— and if he wished to see her alive, he must come at once. He did not wait for leave of absence; that would take time, and every moment was precious then. Under cover of night he stole through the lines and reached home just in tirne to be with her when she died. And then—then, when it _was all over, and he was about to rejoin his regiment, he found that he was branded as a traitor and deserter. If caught he would be shot without mercy ; he was a fugitive from justice. Well, the poor fellow disappeared completely, and no one has ever heard of him since. I don't know whether he is dead or alive, nor does anyone else. It does seem strange, though, the way his life was ruined, and now Phillips, the man for whom he did so much, is on the bench in Chicago—criminal court, I believe just elected." When the alumnus finished, the little group was strangely silent. The strains of the orchestra playing "Auld Lang Syne" in Bayard Hall, floated softly across the campus. "Poor devil!" muttered Burton, and silence fell again. * * * * # * Upon the same day on which the alumnus told the story of his college career, Judge Phillips was to try his first murder case. The accused, as it seemed, had stabbed and mortally wounded a man in a drunken brawl in one of the down-town saloons. The deed was witnessed by five or six persons and the counsel for defense despaired of getting even a second de-gree verdict. The judge was in a strangely reminiscent mood that morn-ing. This was the day on which his old class was holding its reunion. It set him thinking of his college days, of that night when Knox had not only saved his life but had rescued his THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 8; immortal soul. He was thinking how much he owed to his old chum and wondering what had become of him. When he arrived at the court room, it was already half filled. Court was opened and the prisoner was brought in. He was a miserable, trembling wretch, with bleared eyes and unkempt, matted hair. A ray of sunlight crept softly in through the barred window and played about the room. It seemed strangely out of place on the bare, white walls and the stern faces of the jury. The trial was short. The jury, retiring only for fifteen minutes, brought in a verdict of "Guilty in the first degree." The judge had not paid much attention to the details of the trial; he had barely glanced at the prisoner. Now he arose to pass the sentence. "Prisoner at the bar, have you anything to say why sentence of death should not be passed upon you ?" The words fell solemnly and slowly from his lips. Suddenly the crouching figure in the prisoner's "bar sprang up, the stooped shoulders were squared, the dull eyes flashed defiantly, yet with a pleading light. The prisoner uttered but one sen-tence. Stretching out his arms to the judge he cried, "Dick, don't you know me ?" The judge started ; he reeled and leaned heavily on the desk beside him. That voice, that position. Surely this creature could not be Will Knox, laughing, gay, honest, good hearted Bill. The room swam before his eyes, a black mist was hiding everything. His brain was on fire. God! He could not sentence this man—the man who had saved him, soul and body ; the man who had made him all that he"was. He could not condemn him tp death. He could not—he could not—but calm, he must be calm his duty ! Twelve honest men had found him guilty of murder and his duty! There was an awful silence in the court room. Then the judge, with white, set face, slowly but clearly and distinctly spoke the words which consigned the man to the scaffold. They led the prisoner away. The people filed slowly from the room. His Honor sank back into his chair. His head drooped on the railing before him, his clinched hands relaxed. The little sunbeam danced across the room and rested gently on his face. He was dead. 88 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. THE HIGHWAY TO SCHOLARSHIP. VERA L. WAGNER, '06. THIS is an age of specialization along all lines of activity. A special training is therefore necessary to eminence in any one of the vocations. The successful farmer, lawyer, preacher, or physician is the man who thinks. Thought power is the door to success and it is open to all. Reading is one of the avenues leading up to scholarship—not reading and storing the knowledge which has been gained in the upper shelf of the mind, never to be used again, but reading and making what rs read a part of that mind. If what is read be not assimilated, the mind becomes like a storehouse filled with things useless. The scholar reads and masters what he reads; arranges and classifies the knowledge he has gained. The manner of reading is of far greater importance than the quantity read. To read and retain confused and indistinct im-pressions is of no practical value. To read without testing the facts and criticizing the theories advanced, is equally useless. Others may state facts and put forth new theories, but the scholar will verify these facts by his own experience and en-deavor to establish the validity of the theories. The scholar is so far superior to other men because he thinks. The thinker cuts his way through his subject smoothly, grace-fully, rapidly ; other men wear out life against the simplest problems. The scholar is not led hither and thither by the opinions of others, but, after a thoroughly unprejudiced investi-gation of a subject, he forms an opinion to which he will cling until convinced of his error. This resolute following of one's opinion in the face of any apparent failure is the secret of any discovery, any great achievement, any advance in philosophy or historical knowledge. Columbus, in spite of the doubts of friends and the jeers of others, demonstrated to the world that his theory of the earth's sphericity was a scientific fact and not a baseless fancy. Edison said in respect to his inventions, "I never did anything worth THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 89 * doing by accident." Grant, with his iron will, turned not a hair's breath from his purpose until Lee surrendered his sword at Appomatox. Cyrus Field made three attempts before he mastered the forces of nature and successfully laid the Atlantic Cable. Kant spent seven years upon his "Critique of Pure Reason." Bancroft worked twenty-six years on his "History of the United States," Gibbon twenty years on his "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire," Webster thirty-six years on his dictionary. Stephenson perfected his locomotive after fif-teen years of intense application. Harvey labored seven years before he discovered the circulation of the blood and was then called a crack-brained imposter by his fellow physicians. These great achievements were wrought out, not by one tremendous effort, but by patient and continuous endeavor. Labor is still and ever will be the inevitable price set upon everything which is valuable. Ruskin says, "Never depend on genius; if you have talent, industry will improve it; if you have none, industry will supply the deficiences." Great achievements are not accomplished by half hearted effort. Any attempt toward achievement of any kind will prove a dismal failure unless all the energies are bent in that one direction. To none other can more difficult problems arise than to the scholar. Unless, therefore, all the forces of a scholar are united by a lively enthusiasm he cannot succeed. The intellectual development of man during the last century is marked by specialization in all vocations. The scholar is expending his energies not in all directions, but earnestly and resolutely in one direction. Too many persons of to-day are content to be "Jacks of all trades and masters of none." The world is full of persons who can do everything, but the world wants those who can do one thing and do it well. "The weak-est living creature," says Carlyle, "by concentrating his power on a single purpose can accomplish something, whereas the strongest by dispersing his over many may fail to accomplish anything. The drop by continually falling bores its passage through the hardest rock. The hasty torrent rushes over it with hideous uproar and leaves no traces behind." 90 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. By contrasting the scholar and the illiterate the rewards of scholarship are fully understood. In their mental and material conditions, vast differences are noticeable. The ignorant and surperstitious fail to appreciate the true beauty of nature. On the other hand, high positions are not held by the rich, but by men of cultured mind. Why then cannot everyone become eminent in a world where thought rules and great minds achieve mastery over men?' Eminence, however, cannot be attained but by persistent, strenuous effort for "No pain, no palm ; no thorn, no throne; no gall, no glory ; no cross, no crown." * % A sense of duty pursues us ever. It is omnipresent, like the Deity. If we take to ourselves the wings of the morning, and dwell in the uttermost parts of the sea, duty performed or duty violated is still with us, for our happiness or our misery. If we say the darkness shall cover us, in the darkness as in the light our obligations are yet with us.—WEBSTER. Mark how fleeting and paltry is the estate of man—yester-day in embryo, to-morrow a mummy or ashes. So for the hair's-breadth of time assigned to thee live rationally, and part with life cheerfully, as drops the ripe olive, extolling the sea-son that bore it and the tree that matured it.—MARCUS AURE-LIUS. Appearances to the mind are of four kinds. Things either are what they appear to be; or they neither are, nor appear to be ; or they are, and do not appear to be ; or they are not, and yet appear to be. Rightly to aim in all these cases is the wise man's task.—EPICTETUS. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 91 RETURN OF PERSEPHONE. f^EMETER decks the world in green ■*^ To greet Persephone. She carpets with a verdant sheen Each meadow, lawn and lea; And every field and forest scene She brightens silently. She bids the tiny buds unfold, The merry robin sing, The violet forget the cold, The arbutus upspring. The crocus, too, in cup of gold Its sweetest tribute bring. She watches with an anxious eye Each shifting shade and light, And scans the ever-changing sky From morning until night. Now heavy clouds go floating by, And now the sun shines bright. Oh, for a breath of summer breeze To wake the sleeping flowers ! Oh, for the shade of budded trees, The balm of April showers ! Oh, for the green of grassy leas, For glad and golden hours. Oh Earth, no more in silence be, In deepest, darkest night ; Break forth in strains of melody, Press onward to the light. Then shall my lost Persephone Return all fair and bright. 90 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. By contrasting the scholar and the illiterate the rewards of scholarship are fully understood. In their mental and material conditions, vast differences are noticeable. The ignorant and surperstitious fail to appreciate the true beauty of nature. On the other hand, high positions are not held by the rich, but by men of cultured mind. Why then cannot everyone become eminent in a world where thought rules and great minds achieve mastery over men? Eminence, however, cannot be attained but by persistent, strenuous effort for "No pain, no palm ; no thorn, no throne; no gall, no glory ; no cross, no crown." A sense of duty pursues us ever. It is omnipresent, like the Deity. If we take to ourselves the wings of the morning, and dwell in the uttermost parts of the sea, duty performed or duty violated is still with us, for our happiness or our misery. If we say the darkness shall cover us, in the darkness as in the light our obligations are yet with us.—WEBSTER. Mark how fleeting and paltry is the estate of man—yester-day in embryo, to-morrow a mummy or ashes. So for the hair's-breadth of time assigned to thee live rationally, and part with life cheerfully, as drops the ripe olive, extolling the sea-son that bore it and the tree that matured it.—MARCUS AURE-LIUS. Appearances to the mind are of four kinds. Things either are what they appear to be; or they neither are, nor appear to be ; or they are, and do not appear to be; or they are not, and yet appear to be. Rightly to aim in all these cases is the wise man's task.—EPICTETUS. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 91 RETURN OF PERSEPHONE. ■ "%EMETER decks the world in green -™^ To greet Persephone. She carpets with a verdant sheen Each meadow, lawn and lea ; And every field and forest scene She brightens silently. She bids the tiny buds unfold, The merry robin sing, The violet forget the cold, The arbutus upspring. The crocus, too, in cup of gold Its sweetest tribute bring. She watches with an anxious eye Each shifting shade and light, And scans the ever-changing sky From morning until night. Now heavy clouds go floating by, And now the sun shines bright. Oh, for a breath of summer breeze To wake the sleeping flowers ! Oh, for the shade of budded trees, The balm of April showers ! Oh, for the green of grassy leas, For glad and golden hours. Oh Earth, no more in silence be, In deepest, darkest night ; Break forth in strains of melody, Press onward to the light. Then shall my lost Persephone Return all fair and bright. 92 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. Persephone, Persephone, For many weary days My heart has wandered, seeking thee In dark and desert ways ! Persephone, come back to me, And fill my soul with praise ! I hear her footfall on the hills, Her smile the flowers hold ; Her laughter ripples in the rills, Sunshine her hair of gold. Her sweetness all the Spring-time fills With beauty, never told. -*> * ** She comes! Her footsteps press the grass,- Wild flowers spring beneath, And bloom, a perfect, perfumed mass Her queenly brow to wreathe. The wood birds greet her as they pass, And sweetest carols breathe. O Earth, bring all thy treasure sweet, The lilies of the lea, And scatter at her fairy feet Who cometh now to me ; And sea and sky grow glad to greet Returned Persephone. A. R. W" '99. THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 93 THE NEGRO—HIS DEMANDS AND PROSPECTS. NORMAN S. WOW, '04. THAT slavery always is one of the most shameful and disas-trous institutions which can exist in any country under any form of government is obvious, and there is no need to tarry for the substantiation of this fact. All right-minded men have granted it, when once they have seen and felt the tightening fetters which slavery twines about society. While many clearly saw the dangers with which our nation was threatened by treat-ing the negro as a chattel, they nevertheless felt that the slave-trade could not be abolished without blasting the prosperity of the people by whom it was upheld. We have learned the lesson that slavery is unjustifiable, since over our land has been un-furled the standards of worth and merit, and they demand re-cognition, no matter by whom they are floated. The darkest blot on. the pages of the short, yet significant, career of our country is the stain which the disregard for in-herent rights of God-created creatures has left. It is as a thorn buried deep in our nation's conscience, which shall always prick us with the sting of remorse, no matter how closely our ex-bond servants may become assimilated into the interests, prosperity and welfare of their former task masters. The no-bler they acquit themselves, the greater will be our cause for shame. The negro's bondage was in a measure worse than the scourge-inflicted servitude which the Egyptians forced upon God's chosen people. Israel suffered at the direction of God and was subdued by a heathen power. But the negro in his inno-cence and ignorance was bound by an enlightened nation. He, whom the mist of superstition enshrouded, possessed neverthe-less an embryonic soul which was fashioned by God. For no cause except the spirit of indolence and the greed of a superior brother was his back seamed and scarred. This brother treated him as a peer of beasts of burden and labor, whose mouths never frame words whereby to witness of their powers of thought, of reason, and of love. In silence do beasts drag out 94 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. their lives with now and then a bray or a low, which tells most convincingly what grade of creatures they are. They see, but their powers of discrimination and reason, if they have any, are not cognizable—their all is sentiency alone. Are we not shocked to the center of our moral and spiritual natures, to re-call that men and women, who not only felt, but were also sus-ceptible to fine discriminations of friend and foe, of right and wrong, of honor and disgrace, have no more than twenty-five years ago been trodden down and made a brother to the brute ? This fact alone is sufficient justification for proper attention and the cultivation of the negro, that during his dark days of slavery, he was not only capable of loving, but in many instances he really loved those who held him in bondage; he wept with the afflicted ones of the "big house," as well as with those of his own race. During the absence of the master, when to the servants was entrusted the guardianship of the home, no ma-rauders or foe entered those doors, except over the dead or wounded bodies of those whose duty was defence of property and persons, and not self-defence. It does not seem plausible nor proper that the negro should be rated as a brute, nor was he such during his bondage, in spite of the fact that he shared pens and stalls in common with the brute. He was and is a man acquainted with the '.'I" and "you." From many a black "mammy" and father also went up such heart-appealing prayers as God alone has recorded and also rewarded. Since the negro is susceptible to the finer emotions and sentiments, which the white race boastfully calls its own in its pride and prejudice, there is need to ponder seri-ously before we declare against the rights and privileges, for which the negro is slowly but surely becoming a worthy re-cipient. His condition calls for the sympathy and the love of an es-pecially honored and superior race. We are proud of pedi-grees which can be traced back through many generations. We are called upon to maintain them and to keep them from disgrace, or perchance, to free them from dishonor. The in-fluences of ages of Christianity and civilization are focused THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 95 upon us, and in the brilliancy and congeniality of their beams we seem to forget that around us precious seed is wasting for want of the necessary conditions of life. The Negro knows no lineage either to honor or to disgrace, he was transplanted from regions where civilization has not yet dawned, where gods of cruelty stir up strife and murderous dissension instead of breathing the heaven born peace, which, strange to say, he has learned to find and feel during his days of servitude. The Negro has no claim to prestige and honor in the light of illustrious predecessors, which, alas too often is made the all-sufficient claim for rights and distinctions by many mem-bers of our own race, regardless of individual worth and at-tainments. Will the fact alone, that we belong to a superior race secure just and lasting success, when merit is painfully lacking, and will the fact that individual worth has been suc-cessfully developed in an inferior race, be a sufficient reason for ignoring that worth? Something is continually whispering to us that the world looks for merit, and wherever it is found, it will be recognized in the measure that it answers the demands of human needs. We ought neither to be impatient nor to despair of him who has so lately learned the blessed privilege of freedom, since by its wholesomeness are fed the unfolding possibilities of a down-trodden and ignorant race. Hope and encouragement are found in the great leaps which the Negro has made towards en-lightenment and usefulness during his short citizenship of our nation. Not for all the wealth and ease, which he might have brought the South, would we wish to see him still in the shackles of slavery, where knowledge could not penetrate, and his lofty aspirations, now entertained, to which freedom has made him susceptible, would be unknown. His development will be our gain, his bonds were our burden and now are our shame. Many people have persuaded themselves, through prejudice, to think that the Negro will never rise to the standards of civ-ilization and conservatism which a participation in all the civic rights requires. If we should never have met with any but 96 THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. those who have been induced to live by their wit, we might justly hold this opinion. But the real condition and character of the Negro, as of all other races, needs careful investigation, and upon these results a safer judgment may be passed. In attempting a brief characterization of the Negro, not as the race may be represented by any individual, since individu-ality may be one of the extremes of the great mass of human-ity which his race represents, we would call attention to his ca-pability to realize his situation. When, on that significant day after the Emancipation Proclamation had been issued, the slaves were summoned to appear before the "big house" to have the fetters cut asunder, there was great rejoicing, with many ecstatic scenes. But in some way these ignorant, crushed people felt that from henceforth their lot was cast in other places. They felt they were no longer the chattels of their masters, but that it was now their duty to care for themselves, to create homes, to acquire education and to fit themselves for citizenship. Do we wonder that soon ecstasy changed to gloom, when the im-mensity of the blessing which had now been conferred upon them was realized ? Do we wonder that many, conscious of their helplessness, stole back to the "big house" and entreated "ole Massa and Missus" that they might stay with them. Hopelessly abandoned, and they felt it, they looked about, imploringly for guidance from generous men which should point them the way to manhood and usefulness. When they discovered that they were now more loathesome and abandoned than ever—and oh! the narrowness and inhumanity of a Chris-tian nation to leave them to such abandonment—they nat-urally, because of necessity, were compelled to depend upon the little ingenuity they possessed in ordering and promoting the best possible interests which could be fostered by their crude knowledge. Because the Negro had been released from slavery, it should not have followed that he could grow to fruit of civilization without careful attention. It is to the un-selfishness of a few men and women, who were too large to be little, that we owe our thanks. By their patient toil and kind-ness they have done more to convince us of the Negro's capa- THE GETTYSBURG MERCURY. 97 >■) !F2.-upp B-ut.ild.irag, YORK, PENN'A. Watch for his Representative when he visits the College THESE FIRMS ARE O. K. PATRONIZE THEM. DO YOU KNOW WHERE The Choicest Candies, The Finest Soda Water, The Largest Oysters, The Best Ice Cream, Can be found in town? Yes, at Young's Confectionary On Chambersburg Street, near City Hotel, Gettysburg, Pa IF YOU CALL OH C. A. Bloehep, Jeuuelei*, Centre Square, He can serve you in anything you may want in REPAIRING or JEWELRY. SEFTON & FLEMMING'S LIVERY Baltimore Street, First Square, Gettysburg, Pa. Competent Guides for all parts of the Battlefield. Arrangements by telegram or letter. Lock Box 257. J. I. MUMPER. The improvements to our Studio have proven a perfect success and 41 Baltimore St., weare now better prepared than Gettysburg, Pa, ever t0 &™y°" satisfactory work. EMIL ZOTHE COLLEGE EMBLEMS Engraver, Designer and Manufacturing Jeweler, 716 CHESTNUT ST., - PHILADELPHIA. SPECIALTIES : Masonic Marks, Society Badges, College Buttons, Pins, Scarf Pins, Stick Pius and Athletic Prizes. All goods ordered through PHILIP BIKLE, JR. HELP THOSE WHO HELP US. Tiie Intercollegiate Bureau or Academic Gosfum. Chartered igog. Ootrell St lAeonard, makers of the Caps, Gouuns and Hoods To the University of Pennsylvania, Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Cornell, Columbia, University of Chicago, University of Min-nesota, Leland Stanford, Tulane, University of the South, Wel-esley, Bryn Mawr, Wei s, Mt. -iolyoke and the others. Illustrated Bulletin, Samples, Etc., upon request. E. A. Wright's Engraving House, 1108 Chestnut St. PHILADELPHIA We have our own photograph gallery for half-tone and photo engraving. Fashionable Engraving and Stationery. Leading house for College, School and Wedding Invitations, Dance Programs, Menus. Fine engraving of all kinds. Before ordering elsewhere com-pare samples and prices. GET THE BEST The TEACHERS' AND PUPILS' CYCLOPAEDIA. ANEW, RELIABLE and BEAUTIFUL WORK OF REFERENCE in three volumes, edited by B. P. Holtz, A.M., for the homes, schools and colleges of America. It has over 2,200 pages, quarto size, is absolutely new, and treats thousands of selected topics. Many prominent educators have already recommended it for gener-al use. Sample pages furnished on ap-plication. AGENTS WANTED. The Hoist Publishing Co., Bosne, Iowa. PATRONIZE OUR ADVERTIZERS. FURNITURE Mattresses, Bed Springs, Iron Beds, Picture Frames, Repair Work done promptly. Under-taking a specialty. * Telephone No. 97. Bendei 73 Baltimore St., Gettysburg, Pa. THE STEWART & STEEN CO. College Engravers and (Printers 1024 Arch St., Philadelphia, Pa. MAKERS AND PUBLISHERS OF Commencement, Class Day Invitations and Programs, Class Pins and Buttons in Gold and Other Metals, Wedding Invitations and Announcements, At Home Cards, Reception Cards and Visiting Cards, Visiting Cards—Plate and 50 cards, 75 cents. Special Discount to Students. N. A. YEANY, Gettysburg College Representative. 4. §. $palding & §ro., Largest Manufacturers in the World of Official Athletic Supplies. Base Ball Lawn Tennis Golf Field Hockey Official JUhletic Implements. . Spalding's Catalogue of Athletic Sports Mailed Free to any Address. A. G. Spalding & Bros. NEW YORK - . CHICAGO - - DENVER - - BUFFALO - - BALTIMORE
Comentario del artículo de John J. Mearsheimer, "Imperial by Design", The National Interest, No. 111 (Jan/Feb 2011), pp. 16-34.Desde el fin de la Guerra Fría, Estados Unidos se ha visto envuelto en un continuo proceso de búsqueda, re-definición, y autocrítica con respecto a los lineamientos fundamentales de su conducta internacional. En un mundo ya sin la presencia de la Unión Soviética, la identificación de las amenazas a la seguridad nacional estadounidense se ha vuelto una tarea mucho más compleja, aunque aún muy necesaria. En paralelo a todo este proceso, las diversas perspectivas teóricas de nuestra disciplina juegan un rol fundamental en tanto que brindan herramientas analíticas no sólo para quienes debaten los asuntos políticos internacionales, ya sea en un aula o públicamente, sino también para aquellos que deben diseñar políticas y tomar decisiones en nombre del estado. Por medio de la colocación de ciertos acentos y de diversos niveles de enfoque, cada una de las grandes teorías de relaciones internacionales permite navegar el turbio mar del día a día de los asuntos internacionales; y en definitiva, ayudan a separar la hojarasca y lo anecdótico, de aquello que es más relevante.En el último número de The National Interest, John J. Mearsheimer, profesor de la Universidad de Chicago en los EE.UU. y exponente destacado de la vertiente más dura del realismo estructural, realiza una muy necesitada revisión, actualización y crítica del tradicional debate sobre las opciones estratégicas futuras de EE.UU. En principio, Mearsheimer logra captar magistralmente los aspectos centrales fundamentales de cada estrategia y relacionarlas con las distintas corrientes teóricas de la disciplina. Más importante aún, consigue destilar en cada caso las implicancias políticas a largo plazo de perseguir o no ciertas estrategias y explicaciones teóricas. Esto constituye, luego, la materia prima con la cual Mearsheimer moldea sus críticas al liberalismo y al neoconservadurismo estadounidense.En su artículo, John J. Mearsheimer plantea una lectura mordaz y contundente sobre el debate en torno a cada una de estas preguntas. Haciendo eco de sus credenciales realistas, Mearsheimer dedica gran parte de su trabajo a desbancar el "profundo sentimiento de optimismo acerca del futuro" (p.16) que ha llegado a predominar en EE.UU. desde el fin de la Guerra Fría. Este optimismo, Mearsheimer explica, puede verse con claridad tanto en el discurso político de estadistas como Clinton o Albright, como también en la prédica de pensadores, escritores y académicos como Francis Fukuyama y Charles Krauthammer. Ambos grupos por igual, según Mearsheimer, son los responsables por la instauración de un "consenso" liberal político y económico que, además de un "peligroso optimismo", buscan implantar de la democracia por el mundo, la profundización del proceso de globalización y la consolidación definitiva de un sentido de "fin de la historia". Según el autor, sin embargo, "los resultados han dejado al país en una situación desastrosa" (p.16).En lo que respecta a la política exterior estadounidense, Mearsheimer sostiene que existe un ya conocido conjunto de opciones estratégicas o diseños de "grand strategy" (Posen & Ross 1996/97; Kohout III et al. 1995; Nacht 1995) que emanan de la rica historia política del país, que se entremezclan con elementos de su cultura política, y que alimentan el actual debate sobre qué rumbo debe tomar el país de cara al siglo XXI (cfr. Russell-Mead 2002; Jentleson 2010; Dueck 2006). En resumidas cuentas, sostiene el autor, existen tres grandes tipos de estrategias identificadas por la literatura especializada: en primer lugar, y tal vez la más venerada por quienes ven en los Padres Fundadores valores y principios aún aplicables a la actualidad, existe la opción del aislamiento. Los elementos principales de esta primera alternativa son, según algunos de sus exponentes actuales (Tucker 1972; Nordlinger 1995; Gholtz et al. 1997), la concentración casi exclusiva en el Hemisferio Occidental como la zona prioritaria de los intereses vitales estadounidenses y la adopción de una actitud neutral y prudente frente a las posibilidades de expansión más allá de estos límites, en busca de ganancias económicas o poder. Una segunda opción estratégica es el involucramiento selectivo, la cual incorpora (además del Hemisferio Occidental) a Europa, Noreste de Asia y al Golfo Pérsico como áreas vitales donde EE.UU. debiera mantener una presencia militar clara y contemplar el uso de la fuerza llegado el caso extremo de ser ello necesario (Art 1991; Chase et al. 1995).En tercer lugar, la favorita de casi todos los realistas en EE.UU. (incluyendo a Mearsheimer): el equilibrio extra-continental. Esta tercera opción estratégica también pone el énfasis en las regiones de Europa, Noreste de Asia, Golfo Pérsico y, por supuesto, el continente Americano, pero con la importante diferencia de que la presencia militar en tales regiones debe hacerse de una manera más indirecta. En otras palabras, mientras que el involucramiento selectivo plantea para los EE.UU. un rol de sheriff o "policía internacional", patrullando estas regiones estratégicas y manteniendo una presencia vigilante constante "en las calles" de la política mundial, por su parte el equilibrio extra-continental plantea un rol ya no de policía sino algo más cercano al de "bombero internacional". A diferencia de un rol de policía mundial, un bombero no patrulla sino que permanece preparado en su cuartel de bomberos a la espera de la llamada de auxilio. Gracias a esta analogía, es posible observar que este otro rol planteado por la estrategia del equilibrio extra-regional, no obstante, demanda dos elementos cruciales: uno, que en cada una de las regiones consideradas vitales haya "tomas de agua" listas para ser utilizadas (es decir, presencia de aliados, bases militares, despliegue de flotas en los océanos cercanos, etc.), y dos, vecinos dispuestos a intentar "apagar el fuego" por sí solos de forma que, sólo una vez agotados todos sus recursos regionales, sea EE.UU. quien recurra a solucionar los problemas en dicha región. Puesto en términos más académicos, EE.UU. actuaría sólo como equilibrador de último recurso. Como se puede notar, la diferencia entre ambos roles no es menor ya que generan consecuencias políticas muy disímiles.Las tres opciones estratégicas mencionadas hasta aquí han sido comúnmente identificadas y discutidas en profundidad durante los últimos quince o veinte años por quienes estudian la política exterior estadounidense. En su artículo, sin embargo, Mearsheimer incorpora a la discusión dos nuevas estrategias: por un lado, la búsqueda de la construcción de un orden liberal internacional, y por el otro, la búsqueda de la construcción de un "imperio" norteamericano. La primera estrategia, netamente liberal, plantea una alternativa más viable y "americana", acentuando la promoción de la democracia (sobre todo en el Oriente Medio) y la defensa de las instituciones internacionales liberales. Dentro de este esquema, EE.UU. juega un rol central en tanto que representa el primer estado hegemónico en la historia de corte liberal, lo cual lo convierte, según el argumento, en un líder internacional benévolo y más pacífico. A su vez, y dado esto último, se vuelve posible la construcción de un orden mundial apoyado en el liderazgo estadounidense, a través de instituciones globales, que limiten y amplifiquen según el caso el poder de los estados. También central para esta corriente es la idea más reciente de la conformación de una "coalición de democracias" que aceleren y comanden la construcción de este orden liberal global (Ikenberry 2001; Slaughter 2004; Ikenberry & Slaughter 2006).La segunda de estas otras estrategias, la del "imperio", que en realidad posee una larga historia, durante los últimos años ha tomado una nueva relevancia gracias al resurgimiento del pensamiento neoconservador en EE.UU. durante la última administración Bush (Halper & Clarke 2004). Compartiendo ciertas premisas elementales con el liberalismo, como por ejemplo la idea de la promoción de la democracia (Kagan 2008), o el foco en Oriente Medio como objetivo central de aplicación (Kaplan & Kristol 2003), pero distanciándose principalmente en temas concernientes al rol y uso de las instituciones y del poder militar (Kagan & Kristol 2000), los neoconservadores proponen que EE.UU. haga uso directo de su preeminencia militar para pacificar la política internacional, construyendo una suerte de pax americana que solidifique este status quo particular en el tiempo. En definitiva, mientras la visión liberal de orden coloca a EE.UU. en el rol de líder, dentro de una coalición de potencias liberales, bajo un contexto de promoción de la democracia y con una autolimitación al poder emanada de instituciones internacionales estables; la visión neoconservadora, en cambio, coloca a EE.UU. en un rol más bien de imperio benévolo, ávido y listo para hacer uso de su preeminencia militar, y en total descreimiento de la utilidad de las instituciones internacionales en la consecución de este tipo de orden global.Al incorporar estas dos "nuevas" estrategias, debe reconocerse que Mearsheimer no sólo ha logrado enriquecer el debate sobre las opciones estratégicas estadounidenses, ampliándolo y actualizándolo aún más, sino que también ha permitido hacer una más clara y honesta (re)evaluación sobre los elementos teóricos detrás de cada una de ellas, y sobre las implicancias políticas reales de seguir ciegamente uno u otro camino. Frente a las más cruciales interrogantes de momento para quienes deben tomar decisiones en EE.UU., como por ejemplo: ¿Cuál es la mejor manera de solucionar el problema del terrorismo internacional?; ¿Cómo reaccionar política y económicamente al raudo ascenso de China en la escena internacional?; ¿Cómo administrar los vastos intereses globales estadounidenses con la actual crisis económica nacional e internacional?, Mearsheimer sugiere que la opción del equilibrio extra-continental u off-shore balance es la mejor manera no sólo de dar una respuesta a estas cuestiones, sino también al más acuciante dilema de cómo sostener el rol de preeminencia global de cual goza EE.UU. desde el derrumbe soviético. Y es aquí desde donde, tal vez, se pueda criticar a Mearsheimer desde una perspectiva sudamericana, si se quiere.Para Mearsheimer, la opción del equilibrio extra-continental se encuentra en una categoría única en sí misma, separado del resto de las demás (inferiores) estrategias. En principio, permitiría minimizar costos, maximizar beneficios, y volver más segura (y no más insegura) la actual posición de primus inter pares de EE.UU. Sin embargo, en palabras de Mearsheimer y de otros realistas contemporáneos (Posen 2007, Walt 2005), pareciera ser como si el equilibrio extra-continental realizara proclamas de superioridad tanto prácticas como morales en lo que respecta a la política exterior de la superpotencia que, en realidad, son altamente debatibles. A los ojos de Mearsheimer, esta estrategia permitiría no sólo solucionar el problema del terrorismo internacional, sino también los profundos desequilibrios fiscales estructurales del país y –más sencillo aún– la cuestión de la mala imagen estadounidense en el mundo. No obstante, existe un conjunto de serios problemas con la magnitud de estos alegatos: el caso de China y la paradoja del declive hegemónico.En lo que concierne al ascenso de China en la escena internacional, tanto Mearsheimer como otros realistas (Mearsheimer 2006; Layne 2008) se ven enfrascados en un dilema. Por un lado, son conscientes que China puede, o puede que no, llegue a desafiar la preeminencia estadounidense. En parte, uno u otro resultado se deberán a las decisiones de los líderes y estados involucrados en el proceso histórico. Sin embargo, como buenos neorrealistas, el particular énfasis que estos académicos ponen en la estructura no les deja muchas opciones a elegir más allá de la "inevitabilidad estructural" de un conflicto con China (Mearsheimer 2010). Esto, entonces, plantea una suerte de profecía de auto-cumplimiento desde la cual es difícil escapar desde el neorrealismo duro, y que, conjugado con la idea del equilibrio extra-continental, genera serias dudas sobre realmente cuán seguro haría a EE.UU. el perseguir tal camino. Asimismo, en lo que respecta a la durabilidad de la hegemonía estadounidense, la estrategia de equilibrio extra-continental plantea grandes ambigüedades.En su versión original (Layne 1997), el off-shore balancing era visto como la mejor estrategia para "administrar el declive hegemónico". Después de todo, la idea misma de esta estrategia fue repensada a partir de la experiencia británica en el siglo XIX y de cómo ésta potencia "administró" su propio declive con maestría y pericia. En manos de Mearsheimer, sin embargo, el equilibrio extra-continental es presentado como la mejor estrategia para prolongar la primacía de EE.UU. En otras palabras, para Mearsheimer esta estrategia se vuelve no una suerte de receta para superpotencias de la tercera edad, sino más bien una píldora para permanecer siempre joven. Con esto, también, Mearsheimer genera no sólo que sus enérgicas críticas a los "imperialistas liberales" y a los "imperialistas neoconservadores" se tornen más ambiguas, sino que también el respeto por la venerable tradición realista hacia el equilibrio extra-continental se esfume rápidamente, si no por desencanto, entonces por impracticabilidad. Si el foco más duro de la crítica de Mearsheimer hacia las demás estrategias se centra en que, al defender una forma de "imperio americano" éstas generan todos los problemas de seguridad actuales (como el terrorismo, la bancarrota financiera por el excesivo gasto de sostener un involucramiento activo permanente en el mundo, etc.), pierde sentido el proponer una estrategia "alternativa" que, de fondo, posee los mismos objetivos: permanecer en la cumbre. Al final del día, pareciera ser que no hay tantas diferencias entre liberales y "liberales con esteroides" (o neoconservadores), y quienes se dicen "realistas". En manos de Mearsheimer, el realismo deja de apoyarse en la idea del equilibrio como una herramienta de estabilidad internacional, y adquiere el potencial de convertirse en un medio alternativo para el mismo fin liberal y neoconservador de congelar la historia. En definitiva, la interpretación de Mearsheimer convierte la discusión en algo más banal; en un simple debate sobre distintos medios para alcanzar un mismo fin.En conclusión, la gran pregunta, que atraviesa transversalmente a toda la discusión sobre las opciones estratégicas de EE.UU. luego del fin de la Guerra Fría, al parecer sigue siendo ¿cómo pretender sostener una posición de preeminencia internacional sin devenir en un proyecto imperial en el largo plazo? Si la idea del equilibrio extra-continental ha de retener cierto valor y utilidad, es sólo en su versión moderada, proponiéndose un único y simple rol, más humilde y prudente, de ayudar a las superpotencias a declinar con dignidad. Es, en última instancia, una receta para las potencias en declive; una forma suave, gentil y honorable de dar paso a la historia. En cualquiera de sus otras formas, el equilibrio extra-continental no es más que la búsqueda de perpetuar la primacía estadounidense por otros medios. *Profesor, Universidad Abierta Interamericana (UAI), Buenos Aires.Maestría en Estudios Internacionales,Universidad Torcuato di Tella.Referencias bilbiográficas:Art, Robert (1991): "A Defensible Defense: America's Grand Strategy After the Cold War", International Security, Vol. 15, No. 4 (Spring), pp. 5–53.Chase, Robert S.; Emily B. Hill & Paul Kennedy (1996): "Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 75, No. 1 (January/February), pp. 33-51.Dueck, Colin (2008): Reluctant Crusaders: Power, Culture, and Change in American Grand Strategy (Princeton University Press).Gholtz, Eugene; Daryl G. Press & Harvey M. Sapolsky (1997): "Come Home America: The Strategy of Restraint in the Face of Temptation", International Security, Vol. 21, No. 4 (Spring), pp. 5-48.Halper, Stefan & Jonathan Clarke (2004): America Alone: The Neo-Conservatives and the World Order (Cambridge University Press).Ikenberry, G. John & Anne-Marie Slaughter (2006): Forging a World of Liberty Under Law. U.S. National Security in the 21stCentury, Final paper of the Princeton Project on National Security, September 27, pp. 1-96.Ikenberry, G. John (2001): After Victory (Princeton University Press).Jentleson, Bruce W. (2010): American Foreign Policy: The Dynamics of Choice in the 21st Century (W. W. Norton & Company, 4th edition).Kagan, Robert & William Kristol (2000): Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in America's Foreign and Defense Policy(Encounter Books).Kagan, Robert (2008): The Return of History and the End of Dreams (Alfred. A. Knopf).Kaplan, Lawrence F. & William Kristol (2003): The War Over Iraq: Saddam's Tyranny and America's Mission (Encounter Books).Kohout III, John J.; Steven J. Lambakis; Keith B. Payne; Robert S. Rudney; Willis A. Stanley; Bernanrd C. Victory & Linda H. Vlahos (1995): "Alternative Grand Strategy Options for the United States", Comparative Strategy, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 361-420.Layne, Christopher (1997): "From Preponderance to Offshore Balance. America's Future grand Strategy", International Security, Vol. 22, No. 1 (Summer), pp. 86-125.Layne, Christopher (2008): "China's Challenge to U.S. Hegemony", Current History, Vol. 107, No. 705 (January), pp. 13-18.Mearsheimer, John J. (2006): "China's Unpeaceful Rise", Current History, Vol. 105, No. 690 (April), pp. 160-162.Mearsheimer, John J. (2010): "The Gathering Storm: China's Challenge to U.S. Power in Asia", The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, pp. 381–396.Nacht, Alexander (1995): "U.S. Foreign Policy Strategies", The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 3, pp. 195-210.Nordlinger, Eric A. (1995): Isolationism Reconfigured (Princeton University Press).Posen, Barry R. & Andre L. Ross (1996/1997): "Competing Visions for U.S. grand Strategy", International Security, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Winter), pp. 5-53.Posen, Barry R. (2007): "The Case for Restraint", The American Interest, Vol. 3, No. 1 (November/December), pp. 6-33.Russell-Mead, Walter (2002): Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World (Routledge).Slaughter, Anne-Marie (2004): A New World Order (Princeton University Press).Tucker, Robert W. (1972): A New Isolationism: Threat or Promise? (Universe Books). Walt, Stephen M. (2005): "In the National Interest. A grand new strategy for American foreign policy", Boston Review, Vol. 30, No. 1 (February/March), pp. 6-23.
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After a half century, Islamism has become the single most disruptive force—both politically and militarily—in the Middle East. It evolved from cells of political activists in the 1970s into mass movements and, for the first time, as a governing force in the late 20th century. Both Sunni and Shiites turned to their faith amid the failure of monarchies and autocracies to deliver political freedoms, economic benefits, stability, or security since the wave of independence from colonial powers began in the mid-20th century. "Islam is the solution" became a common refrain echoed by multiple movements. Islamist political parties competed in democratic elections in North Africa, the Levant, and the Gulf. Meanwhile, diverse militant movements—from Morocco to Egypt, from Lebanon across to the Gulf—turned to hostage-taking and suicide bombs against diplomatic, military and civilian targets to enhance their impact.Islamism expanded in the 21st century—in vastly different ways. Parties willing to run won democratic elections in Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, Turkey, and the Palestinian Authority. Some were short-lived in power. Militants simultaneously became more brazen, whatever the large loss of life among their constituents or the vast destruction. The map of the Middle East changed after huge chunks of territory were seized from Iraq and Syria to create the first modern caliphate. Militias also triggered two devastating wars with Israel in 2006 and 2023. Six PhasesIslamism has played out through six phases across two dozen countries. The first turning point was the 1973 war, when Arabs fought for the first time in the name of Islam. Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser code-named Egypt's invasion of Israel "Operation Badr" after the Prophet Mohammed's first victory in 623 AD. In 1979, twin crises—the Iranian revolution ending more than two millennia of dynastic rule, and the bloody, two-week seizure of Saudi Arabia's Grand Mosque by a fundamentalist cell—reflected the rejection of modernization by both Shiites and Sunnis based on Western ways. They sought a more culturally credible form of governance.The second turning point—for both parties and militias—was in the 1980s. Branches of the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni movement, ran in parliamentary elections in Egypt and Jordan and won seats. In Egypt, the group ran under the cover of other opposition parties. But militant Islam also accelerated, especially during the first modern jihad against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Thousands of Sunnis, mainly from the Gulf states, joined the decade-long campaign. The so-called "Afghan Arabs" later transferred their skills and experience to other countries. Among them was Osama bin Laden, the Saudi founder of al Qaeda. In Lebanon, Hezbollah mobilized cells of Shiites in the early 1980s for the first suicide bombings of Israeli troops as well as U.S. Marine peacekeepers and two American embassies in Beirut, and on multiple embassies and business sites in Kuwait. By the end of the decade, Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza had launched the Intifada against Israel, which in turn spawned Hamas and further empowered Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Both called for the destruction of Israel and the creation of a state governed by strict Islamic law. The third phase was in the 1990s. Political Islam gained ground in Algeria, when the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) defeated more than 50 parties in the country's first fully democratic election. The final runoff in 1991 was preempted by a military coup that outlawed FIS, imprisoned its leaders, and triggered a more extremist movement that fought government troops for a decade. More than 100,000 Algerians died during the civil war. In Lebanon, Hezbollah evolved from an exclusively clandestine terrorist movement into a registered political party that ran for office in 1992—and won seats.But militant Islamist groups also became more ambitious in the 1990s. Hamas formed its military wing dubbed the Izz ad Din al Qassam Brigades, named after a Palestinian leader who had fought British occupation in the 1930s. The first suicide attack by Hamas on Israel, in 1993, was near the Mehola settlement in the West Bank. Al Qaeda operatives attacked the World Trade Center in 1993, the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, and the USS Cole off the coast of Yemen in 2000. The beginning of the fourth phase was marked by brazen al Qaeda attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001. The hijacking of four commercial airlines and bombings of the U.S. financial hub and capital were unprecedented—and a boon to the jihadi movement. Over the next decade, al Qaeda spawned affiliates in North Africa, Syria, the Arabian peninsula, South Asia, and East Africa. But two U.S. wars—launched against the Taliban in Afghanistan, in 2001, and President Saddam Hussein in Iraq, in 2003—also further spurred Islamist movements and spawned new ones. From Lebanon, Hezbollah ran a daring operation into Israel—to increase pressure for the release of Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners—that triggered a 34-day war. It was then Israel's longest war Israel, and it was fought to a stalemate that the Party of God claimed as a political victory. It recouped, rebuilt and ended up with even more weaponry.The fifth phase was marked by the changing political landscape after the 2011 Arab Spring ousted leaders in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen, in turn opening the way for long-banned Islamist movements to run for office. They experienced unprecedented peaks but also unprecedented lows. Ennahda in Tunisia and the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party in Egypt both won pluralities in national elections. Mohammad Morsi of the Brotherhood won the presidency in Egypt, albeit for only a year before the movement was toppled and outlawed in a military coup. But growing instability, politically and economically, also paved the way for the mushrooming Islamic State—an offshoot of al Qaeda with more ruthless tactics—to recruit some 60,000 fighters from throughout the world. The Sunni jihadis seized a third of Iraq and Syria to form the first modern caliphate in 2014. It took a U.S.-led coalition of 83 countries and partners five years to force ISIS to retreat from Iraq in 2017 and from Syria in 2019. But by then, ISIS had franchises still active on three continents. The sixth phase, in the 2020s, initially appeared to reflect the decline of both political and militant Islamism. Ennahda had become the largest party in Tunisia's parliament in 2019 elections. But, amid public protests, the president arrested top officials and closed the party's offices in 2022, then imprisoned its leader in 2023. The two-year global pandemic also complicated recruiting and logistics for militant groups. Yet underlying grievances, built over decades, went unresolved. In 2023, Hamas launched an unprecedented attack—in scope, tactics and casualties—across southern Israel. During the war, both Israel and the Palestinian group faced their greatest existential military challenges. Defining FactorsIslamism covered a wide spectrum that crystalized in the 1990s. "Islamism and jihadism were distinct. Islamists participated in elections, worked within the nation-state framework, and didn't typically excommunicate other Muslims," Alex Thurston, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, told The Islamists. They accepted territorial boundaries. "Jihadists, on the other hand, had a highly exclusivist and violent revolutionary outlook that made them a different species altogether." They generally supported the overthrow of modern states and rejected the international order. Islamists and jihadists operated in "fundamentally different frameworks," Thurston said. Even militant jihadis differed. Al Qaeda, founded by bin Laden, argued that his movement had to first convert Muslims to its vision of an Islamic state and create ripe conditions for a modern caliphate to survive long-term. The Islamic State, initially an offshoot that later broke away, argued that it had to create a caliphate first and then force both Muslims and members of other faiths to accept it—under penalty of death. Among Palestinians, Hamas and Islamic Jihad both sought to eliminate Israel. But Hamas was willing to run in elections and participate in governance, while PIJ was only interested in a violent and perpetual state of war with Israel. Hamas even had its own rival factions—among leaders in Gaza, the diaspora in Lebanese refugee camps and political leaders based in Qatar. ISIS fighters in IraqImage CreditAlliances also varied, especially among Shiites and Sunnis. Iran generated, armed, trained and financed allies—Hezbollah in Lebanon, several groups of varying size in Iraq that operated under the umbrella of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Houthis in Yemen, and others. Most were Shiite, with the notable exceptions of Hamas and PIJ. Iran's proxies operated in the so-called "Axis of Resistance" that acted on behalf of Iran in varying degrees but catered to their local constituencies. They had diverse local agendas. Al Qaeda was a Sunni movement with branches in North Africa's Magreb, the Arabian Peninsula, and south Asia. They pledged fealty to the original core of leaders but operated more independently and locally, especially since the deaths of bin Laden in 2011 and Ayman al Zawahiri in 2022 in U.S. military operations.FailuresPolitical Islam witnessed a shift during its sixth phase. Islamist political parties were "far less relevant than they were a decade ago," Sarah Yerkes, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The Islamists. They were "steadily losing support across the Middle East and North Africa." They needed to "figure out how to both operate in increasingly authoritarian contexts and closed spaces as well as how to re-capture public support in a region where political parties have lost the trust of the people." In general, Islamists were less relevant today than they were a decade ago because "they have often been coopted by the authoritarian regimes," she said. Unable or unwilling to make progress on their political promises, they increasingly lost credibility among followers and voters. In 2022-23, movements promoting Islamic values in society through the political process suffered "severe setbacks" in Tunisia and in Palestine, Nathan Brown, a political scientist at George Washington University, told The Islamists. Tunisia's crackdown on Ennahda and the rise of presidential authoritarianism "shut the political path" and left "no clear path back" for a peaceful party. In Gaza, the military wing of Hamas "plunged the movement into a full confrontation with Israel," Brown added. Hamas won the majority of seats in the last Palestinian election in 2006. Now, "elections will not be at the center or even periphery of Palestinian politics for a while."Political trends globally, with the rise of populism and conservatism, also shifted the momentum away from liberal and progressive movements, which took "the steam out of Islamist groups," Yerkes said. Parties based on giving religion a larger profile in the political sphere were "not able to gain the same levels of public support" they once had. The future The prospects for Islamism—both political and military—were deeply impacted by the war between Hamas and Israel. The conflict "elicited near-universal praise from militant Islamist groups" for Hamas, among both Sunnis and Shiites, Katherine Zimmerman, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told The Islamists. Groups called on Palestinians to "seize the moment to rise up" against Israel and the United States, especially as US aircraft carriers, warplanes and forces flowed into the region. One major exception was the Islamic State, which warned against cooperation with Hamas. Its fighters had killed Hamas members and supporters in the past. Overall, however, the violent end of the spectrum appeared "more relevant" than political parties willing to work within traditional state systems at the end of 2023. "The idea that these Islamist movements have moderated has been shattered by the Hamas attack, illustrating that while they might tactically at different points appear to be buying into a broader system, their worldviews are inherently at odds with a liberal democratic order," Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told "The Islamists."Yet it became more difficult to "parse" the prospects for both political Islamists and groups willing to use violence, Zimmerman said. Jihadis who employed violence have generally had more success than those working through electoral or other political channels. "The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood was elected to power and ousted shortly thereafter, having eschewed violence," Zimmerman noted. But the Houthis, Hezbollah, the Taliban, and Hamas had success through the use force, despite facing much stronger adversaries. "What this means," she noted, "is there seems to be more willingness for Islamist groups to engage across the spectrum using all means at their disposal to achieve their ends."Izz ad Din al Qassam fighters attend a military parade in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 27, 2021Image CreditThe disparate faces of Islamism will also have diverse appeal in different regions, Zelin said. Iran's Axis of Resistance network will be important in the Levant and the Gulf. The offshoots of the Muslim Brotherhood network will be key in Egypt and Jordan. Al Qaeda will have pull further afield in Africa. And the Islamic State will be most pertinent to Afghanistan and Africa's Sahel region, he said. Their fates will also all be affected by local, regional and global factors in different ways. So, after a half century of experimenting with the many tactics of change, there was no single algorithm or trajectory for Islamism. Islamists in Government: 2023Image CreditAlgeria: In the 2022 elections, the Movement of Society for Peace, a Sunni Islamist party and offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, won one seat in the 174-member Council of the Nation. It also won 65 seats in the 407-member People's National Assembly, an increase of 31 seats since the 2017 election.Bahrain: The Gulf nation banned opposition movements–includingal Wefaq, a Shiite party–before the 2018 National Assembly Elections. In 2023, no Islamist parties were represented in the 40-member Council of Representatives, the elected legislative body, or the Consultative Council, the 40-member body appointed by the king. Egypt: In the 2020 elections, the Nour Party, a conservative Salafi party backed by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, won seven seats in the 596-member House of Representatives. It also had two seats in the 300-member Senate, both by presidential appointment. Smaller Islamist parties–including Wasat, the Strong Egypt Party, and Authenticity–boycotted the 2020 elections as a "formality for outside appearances." The Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood that won the presidency and a parliamentary majority in 2012 elections, was banned from politics after being ousted in a 2013 military coup led by El Sisi, then chief of the armed forces. Former President Mohamed Morsi was tried and sentenced to death, later commuted to life imprisonment, for inciting violence and espionage.Iran: The 1979 revolution created the Islamic Republic of Iran, a Shiite theocracy and the first modern government to blend Islam and democracy. The new constitution stipulated that all laws had to be based on "Islamic criteria" and gave ultimate authority to a the supreme leader. Several parties—including hardline, centrist and reformist factions—reflected divergent views on whether clerics or elected leaders should have more power.Iraq: Sairoon, an alliance led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al Sadr, won 73 out of the 329 seats in the 2021 Council of Representatives election. Despite winning a plurality, Sairoon failed to form a governing coalition. Its lawmakers resigned in 2022 to break the deadlock. State of Law, a coalition led by the Shiite Islamist Dawa Party, won 35 seats in the 2021 election. The Fatah Coalition, dominated by Shiite Islamist parties backed by Iran, won 17 seats. The Coalition of the National State Forces, which included the Shiite Islamist Nasr bloc, won four seats. The Haquq Movement, the political wing of the Kataib Hezbollah militia, an Iran-backed Shiite militia, won one seat. The Kurdistan Justice Group, a Sunni Islamist party, won one seat. Jordan: TheIslamic Action Front, long affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, won five seats in the 130-member House of Representatives in the 2020 election. The Islamic Center Party, which advocated for an Islamic democracy, won five seats. No Islamist parties were represented in the 65-member Senate appointed by the king. Kuwait: The Islamic Constitutional Movement, an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood, won three seats in the 65-member National Assembly in the 2023 election. Lebanon: Hezbollah's political wing, the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, won 13 seats of the 126 seats in parliament in the 2022 election. It held two cabinet ministries. Libya: The Muslim Brotherhood won seats in parliamentary elections after the ouster of Moammar Qaddafi in 2012. But amid political and geographic divisions, it converted into an NGO after many its largest branches disbanded.Morocco: The Justice and Development Party, a Sunni Islamist Party, lost nearly 90 percent of its seats—down from 125 to 13 in the House of Representatives—in the 2021 parliamentary election. Oman: There were no Islamist parties in Oman, an absolute monarchy. Palestinian Authority: Hamas, a Sunni Islamist party backed by Iran,won the parliamentary election in 2006 with 76 of 132 seats. In 2007, it ousted Fatah, a rival secular party, from Gaza and ruled the territory largely uncontested. President Mahmoud Abbas, leader of the secular and nationalist Fatah Party, governed in the West Bank. In 2018, the Palestinian Authority dissolved the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council. Qatar: There were no Islamist parties in the 45-member Consultative Assembly. Saudi Arabia: Political parties were outlawed in Saudi Arabia, a country where Sharia is the source of all laws. The 150 members of the seat Consultative Assembly were appointed by the king. Syria: There were no Islamist parties in the 250-member People's Assembly. The government has long banned Islamist parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood. In rebel-held Idlib province, Hayat Tahrir al Sham, a former affiliate of al Qaeda, ruled the Salvation Government in northwest Syria.Tunisia:Ennahda and Al Karama, two Sunni parties, boycotted the 2022 parliamentary elections over frustration with the president's increasingly autocratic rule. For the first time since the 2011 Jasmine revolution, no Islamist parties had seats in the 161-member Assembly of the Representatives of the People. In 2023, Ennahda founder Rachid Ghannouchi was tried for "plotting against state security" and sentenced to a year in prison. Turkey: In 2023, the Justice and Development Party, a movement rooted in Islamism and led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, won 267 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly. It allied with the Nationalist Movement Party, which advocated Turkish Islamism and won 50 seats, and the Free Cause Party, a Kurdish Islamist party. which won 4 seats. The Felicity Party and the New Welfare Party, both Islamist parties, joined the opposition in parliament. United Arab Emirates: Political parties were illegal, so there were no Islamist parties in its 40-member Federal National Council. Yemen: The Houthis, a rebel movement of Zaydi Shiites and backed by Iran, seized Sanaa, the capital, in September 2014. In November 2016, they formed a government that ruled roughly a third of Yemen's territory, in which at least 70 percent of the population lived. Jordanna Yochai, an MA candidate at Columbia University's School of International & Public Affairs, contributed research.
An die Mastschweinehaltung werden bezüglich einer umwelt- und tiergerechten Produktion hohe Anforderungen gestellt. Das zunehmend umweltbewußte Denken und die Forderung nach tiergerechten Haltungssystemen sowohl von Seiten der Öffentlichkeit als auch vom Gesetzgeber führen dazu, daß neue zukunftsorientierte Haltungssysteme geschaffen werden müssen, die einerseits ökologische und ethologische Auflagen bzw. Postulierungen erfüllen und die andererseits es den Betrieben ermöglichen, sich im europäischen Wettbewerb zu behaupten. Für eine umwelt- und tiergerechte Mastschweinehaltung gewinnen Haltungssysteme mit Einstreu an praktischer Bedeutung. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war es, das Tierverhalten in einem Haltungssystem mit Stroheinstreu unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von Stallklimakenndaten und Stallarbeiten zu analysieren, Wechselwirkungen zwischen dem Tierverhalten und Stallklimaparametern zu erkennen und Produktionsleistungen festzuhalten. Die Daten wurden zur kalten Jahreszeit in einem im Winter geschlossenen Tiefstreustall gewonnen. Die ethologischen Untersuchungen erfolgten mittels Videotechnik. Es wurden eine periodische Gruppenbeobachtung zu 4 Beobachtungsphasen, eine aperiodische Gruppenbeobachtung zu 2 ausgewählten Stallarbeiten (morgendliche Einstreuarbeit und Neuversorgung der Beobachtungsbucht mit einem Strohballen) und eine kontinuierliche Einzeltierbeobachtung (3 Tiere mit unterschiedlichem Gewicht) zu 2 Beobachtungsphasen, die in 4- wöchigem Abstand lagen, durchgeführt. Ziel der Gruppenbeobachtung war es, das Verhalten hinsichtlich eingenommener Körperpositionen und dieser in Bezug zur Raumstruktur festzuhalten, Ziel der Einzeltierbeobachtung war es, zusätzlich Aktivitäten und deren Dauer zu erkennen. Folgende Stallklimaparameter wurden gemessen: Stallufttemperatur im nahen Tierbereich, relative Luftfeuchte im Stall, Mistmatratzentemperaturen. Weiterhin wurde die Außenlufttemperatur aufgenommen. Die Ergebnisse können wie folgt zusammengefasst werden: • Im Tierverhalten war eine Tagesrhythmik zu erkennen: Das Ethogramm der von der Tiergruppe (42 Tiere) eingenommenen Körperpositionen zeigte einen deutlichen Wechsel zwischen den liegenden und nichtliegenden Körperpositionen. Im wesentlichen konnte nachts eine Hauptliegephase und eine kürzere vormittags registriert werden. Nachmittags war ein hoher Anteil der aufrechten und sitzenden Körperpositionen zu verzeichnen. Die ausgeprägte Tagesrhythmik läßt auf ein diesbezüglich adäquates Haltungssystem schließen. • Die Temperatur im Stall war stets höher als außen. Vom Stallinneren zur Außenwand zeigte sich ein abfallendes Temperaturprofil Das höhere Niveau der Stallinnentemperatur ergab sich vorwiegend durch die Abstrahlwärme der Tiere und der Mistmatratze. In der Mistmatratze wurde an dem Ort, an dem der Strohballen hineingesetzt wurde, ein heißer Temperaturkern ermittelt. Die relative Luftfeuchte im Stall war im Meßzeitraum Februar größtenteils über dem in der Literatur angegebenen Optimalbereich (60 bis 80 %). Besonders hoch war sie in der letzten Beobachtungsphase (85 bis 97 %). • Der Verlauf der Stallinnentemperatur zeigte ebenfalls eine Tagesrhythmik. Er wurde beeinflußt durch den Verlauf der Außentemperatur und durch die Bewegungs- und Stoffwechselaktivität der Tiere. Folgende Korrelationskoeffizienten zwischen der Stallinnentemperatur und den Körperpositionen wurden errechnet: zwischen der Temperatur und der Seitenlage ergab sich ein negativer Zusammenhang von -0,47 (signifikant, α=0,01), zwischen der Temperatur und dem Liegen gesamt (Bauchlage und Seitenlage) ebenfalls ein negativer Zusammenhang von -0,47 (signifikant, α=0,01), ein positiver Zusammenhang zeigte sich zwischen der Temperatur und der Bauchlage mit einem Korrelationskoeffizienten von +0,30 (signifikant, α=0,01) und zwischen der Temperatur und aufrechter + sitzender Körperstellung mit einem Korrelationskoeffizienten von +0,46 (signifikant, α=0,01). Die Seitenlage ist die Ruheposition mit der maximalen Entspannung, d.h. die Bewegungsaktivität der Tiere ist gering. Die Bauchlage kann neben dem Ruhen (im Sinne von ruhig liegen und schlafen) mit Bewegungsaktivitäten verbunden sein. • Während der Stallarbeiten wurden vermehrt die Körperpositionen aufrecht und sitzen eingenommen. Es zeigte sich in der Regel ein Temperaturanstieg. Obwohl alle Seitentore während der Stallarbeit "Hineinsetzen des Strohballens in die Buchten" geöffnet waren und die Außentemperatur niedriger war als die im Stall, zeigte sich im Stall ein leichter Temperaturanstieg. • Über 4 Beobachtungsphasen (eine Beobachtungsphase entspricht 24,1 Stunden; alle 12,8 Minuten wurden die Körperpositionen festgehalten) waren aus der Gruppe durchschnittlich 48,1 % der Tiere in Seitenlage, 31,4 % in Bauchlage, 15% in aufrechter und 5,5 % in sitzender Stellung. Der Literatur kann entnommen werden, daß die Tiere die Seitenlage einnehmen, sofern es warm genug ist, was bedeutet, daß ausreichend Wärme (durch die Tiere selbst und durch die mikrobiellen Abbauvorgänge in der Mistmatratze) vorhanden war. In der letzten Beobachtungsphase konnten in Verbindung mit einer hohen relativen Luftfeuchte (85 bis 97 %) signifikant (α=0,05) mehr Bauchlagen und weniger Seitenlagen beobachtet werden. Die Bauchlage wird beim Ruhen beibehalten, wenn dem Tier zu kalt oder zu warm oder aus sonstigen Gründen unwohl ist. • Gesichert war ein raumstrukturbezogenes Tierverhalten zu erkennen. Es konnten auf der Stroh-/Mistmatratze folgende Funktionsbereiche in der Bucht ausfindig gemacht werden: ein Hauptliegebereich, ein Wühlbereich (am Ort des Strohballens), ein Kotplatz. Die durchschnittliche Belegungsdichte war auf der planbefestigten Fläche am höchsten und auf dem konzentrierten Kotplatz am geringsten. Auf der planbefestigten Fläche entstand auf der linken (westlichen) Seite aufgrund der sich dort befindenden Tränken und dem Zugang zum Futterautomaten ein Ballungsraum. Die 4 Preßplätze des Futterautomaten waren im Beobachtungszeitraum weniger als 50 % pro Tag ausgelastet. • Die Ergebnisse der Einzeltierbeobachtung entsprachen den Literaturangaben bezüglich der Einnahme der Körperpositionen im Laufe des Alters: Mit dem Alter war eine Zunahme der Seitenlage, eine Abnahme der Bauchlage, eine Zunahme des Sitzens und eine Abnahme der aufrechten Körperposition zu beobachten. Mit 10,87 % von der Gesamtaktivität zeigten die Tiere ein ausgeprägtes Erkundungs-/Futtersuchverhalten (Wühlen/Scheinwühlen). Die Dauer des Wühlens nahm mit dem Alter zu, was auch andere Autoren ermittelt haben. Gewichtsabhängige Unterschiede in den Aktivitäten zwischen den 3 Tieren konnten nicht ausfindig gemacht werden. • Im Vergleich zu den Ergebnissen des LKV (Landeskuratorium der Erzeugerringe für tierische Veredelung in Bayern e. V.) für Bayern 1994/1995 (656 g tägliche Zunahmen, Futterverwertung 3,0 kg Futter/kg Zunahme, Muskelfleischanteil 58,0 %) waren die Produktionsleistungen der Tiergruppe mit 714 g täglichen Zunahmen bei einer Futterverwertung von 2,77 kg Futter/kg Zunahme gut und der erreichte Muskelfleischanteil mit 55,1 % unterdurchschnittlich. Das Haltungssystem ist in Bezug auf die Tagesrhythmik der Tiere als tiergerechtes Haltungssystem zu beurteilen. Auch nahmen die Tiere die Möglichkeit wahr, sich ausgiebig mit dem dargebotenen Stroh/Strohballen zu beschäftigen. Allerdings waren die Temperaturen auf der Mistmatratzenoberfläche, also im mikroklimatischen Bereich der Tiere, über 20 °C und damit vor allem für ältere Tiere über dem empfohlenen Temperaturbereich. Besonders unter diesem Aspekt ist zu erwähnen, daß auf der planbefestigten Fläche die höchste Belegungsdichte errechnet wurde. Es sollte daher in Betracht gezogen werden, die planbefestigte Fläche in einem geschlossenen Tiefstreustall zu vergrößern oder Schweineduschen einzusetzen, um den Tieren, und hier vor allem den älteren Tieren, die Möglichkeit zu bieten, ihre Körperwärme abzugeben. Dies ist auch hinsichtlich der vermutlich im Sommer noch höheren Temperaturen wichtig. Probleme bereitete im Winter das Lüftungssystem: die Luftfeuchtigkeit war eindeutig zu hoch. Verbesserungen sind daher erforderlich. Die Ergebnisse lassen den Schluß zu, daß auch ein Offenstallsystem möglich wäre. In weiteren Arbeiten sollten die im Winter erfolgten Untersuchungen auch im Sommer durchgeführt werden. Positiv wäre, zusätzlich Stallklimaparameter wie Luftgeschwindigkeit, Emissionen und Staubentwicklung mit zu erfassen und Wechselbeziehungen zwischen diesen und dem Tierverhalten zu untersuchen. ; Nowadays, we are accustomed to the claim that fattening pigs' farming must be based upon considered care of the animals on the one hand and of the environment on the other hand. An increasing ecological way of thinking as well as a demand for finding ways of how to keep and to care for animals as far as the public and the legislation alike are concerned, are clearing the way for the demand of new housing systems, capable of fulfilling the new ecological as well as the ethological laws and demands, in order to give farmers the possibility to survive the struggle of European competition. Housing systems where pigs are kept on litter acquire an increasing practical importance for a just ecological as well as a just ethological housing system. It was the aim of this work to analyse the behaviour of pigs kept on straw, especially taking into account climatic factors as well as stable jobs, to make note of the interchangeable reactions regarding the behaviour of the animals and the climate in the stable and to keep diary as to the well-being of the livestock on the one hand and the economic value of sold pigs on the other hand. The data were gained during the cold season in a pen within a stable permanently closed in winter and where the straw was kept and simply piled up during the period off attending (deep litter system). The ethological research was done by means of video cameras. 4 observation periods were chosen for one periodical observation of one and the same group (42 pigs), further one aperiodical observation of the group for 2 specially chosen jobs in the stable (throwing of fresh straw in the morning and providing a bale of straw for the pen chosen for observation), further a 24 hours' period observation of one animal allowing 3 animals with different weight to be observed during two periods of observation with a 4 weeks' period of interval in between. It was the aim of the observation of the chosen group of pigs to find so nothing about the attitude of the animals in view of their body positions allotted to their given place. The aim of the observation of the one animal on the other hand was to gain additionally knowledge of the pigs' activities as well as of the duration of their activities. The following climatic factors were measured: outside temperature, temperature within the stable (as close as possible to the animal), relative humidity in the stable and the temperatures of the layers of straw/dung underneath the animals. The results can be summarized as such: • There could be seen a daily rhythm in the behaviour of the animals. From the ethogram taken of the position of the bodies of the group of pigs (42 pigs) could be seen a clear change between lying down and not lying down positions. On the whole, there could be registered a main lying down period during the night and a shorter one before noon. In the afternoon, there could be noted a high percentage of standing as well as sitting positions. The existance of a consolidated rhythm during the day can be respectively seen as an adequate way of life in the stable. • The temperature in the stable was always higher than the outside temperature. From the inside of the stable to its outside wall the temperature was going down. The higher level of the temperature inside the stable was mainly achieved by the loss of body temperature of the animals and of the layers of dung and straw mixture. In the place where the bale of straw was put in, there could be measured a hot temperature nucleus inside the dung mattress. During the time of taking the measurements, in February, the relative humidity in the stable was mainly above the best measurements noted in Iiterature (60 to 80 %). Especially high it was during the last observation period (85 to 97 %). • As to the inside temperature of the stable there could be seen a certain rhythm during the day. It was influenced by the course of the outside temperature and by the activities caused by movement and metabolism. The following coefficients of correlation between the inside temperature of the stable and the positions of the bodies were calculated: between temperature and lying down on the side there was a negative relation of -0,47 (significant, α=0,01), between temperature and total lying down position (on the stomach and on the side) another negative relation of -0,47 % (significant, α=0,01); a positive relation was seen on the other hand between the temperature and the position on the stomach with a coefficient of correlation of +0,30 (significant, α=0,01) and between the temperature and a standing plus a sitting position with a coefficient of correlation of +0,47 % (significant, α=0,01). The best position of rest and therefore the best way of relaxation is lying on the side, meaning that the activity of movement of the animals is at its lowest at that time. The position on the stomach can either be seen when resting (meaning sleeping quietly) or during activities of movements. • During the time of work in the stable there could be counted more standing and sitting positions than usual. Also, there was measured a rise in temperature. Though all side doors were opened during the work in the stable (while bales of straw were put into the boxes) and though the outside temperature was lower than the temperature within the stable there was still a small rise in the temperature in the stable. • On average 48,1 % of pigs within the group of pigs were lying down on the side during the 4 periods of observation (one observation period equals 24,1 hours; every 12,8 minutes the body positions of the pigs were noted), 31,4 % of them were lying down on their stomach, 15,0 % were in a standing and 5,5 % were in a sitting position. From Iiterature can be learned, that the animals like to be on the side as long as it is warm enough for doing so, meaning that there was enough warmth caused by the animals themselves as well as caused by the warmth of the fermenting dung mattress. During the last time of observation where there was a high relative humidity (85 to 97 %) there could be counted significantly (α=0.05) more pigs lying on their stomachs and less lying on their sides. Lying on the stomach is taken place while resting, whenever the animal is too cold or too warm or whenever there is another reason for being unwell. • For sure there was to be seen an attitude of the animal which was related to the structure of the box. It provided certain places of influencing the behaviour of the animals: on the dung/straw mattress there was a place where dung was separated from the main place of resting as well as a place for digging where the bale of straw was put. The highest number of pigs were registered on the concrete floor and the lowest number of pigs were registered in the manure area. On the left side of the concrete floor there was a densely populated area aroused where both the watering place and the access to the left side of the automatic feeder were placed. During the time of observation, the feeder in the pen, providing 4 places, was visited less than 50 %. • The results of the one-pigs' watching as to its body position its age taken in course agree with Iiterature concerned: as pigs grew older, there was a steady increase in the lying down position on the side as well as in their sitting position; there was a decrease in standing up and in lying on their stomachs. With a 10.87 % digging activity in regard to total activity, pigs showed an extreme liking for digging. Accordancing to literature, the older the pigs the longer it lasted. Differences in activity because of weight could not be traced. • Productivity data showed a daily weight gain of 714 g and a food utilization of 2.77 (kg food/kg weight gain). Both were good in accordance to the results of the figures of the production areas of animal husbandry in Bavaria in 1994/1995 (656 g daily weight gain, food utilization of 3.0 kg food/kg weight gain). The amount of muscle meat of 55 % in slaughtered animals was below average (58 %). It is seen, that the housing system of the animals can be judged as a keeping system just to the animals in relation to their daily routine. Also the animals liked to make use of the possibility to occupy themselves with the supply of straw and/or straw bales. But the temperatures on the surface of the dung/straw mattress and so within the microclimate of the pigs were above 20 °C and therefore beyond the recommended best measurements for temperatures which should be around pigs, especially older pigs. Regarding this it has to be mentioned that on the surface of concrete floor the highest percentage of pigs could be calculated. Therefore it would be wise to consider either to provide a bigger area of concrete flooring in order to provide for more room for the animals to get rid of their excessive body temperatures or to give them the possibility to take a shower in order to cool down. During winter there are problems concerning the airing system: it could be seen, that humidity was without doubt too high. Hence improvements of the airing system have to be carried out. The results of this work also tolerate the idea of an open housing system. More could be done in repeating the measurements, taken in the cold season, in summer as well as in placing additional instruments of measuring climatic factors in the stable such as for air velocity, emissions and developments of dust and to make note of the interchangeable relations in between these studies related to the behaviour of pigs.
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My first post described a few anecdotes about what a warm person Bob Lucas was, and such a great colleague. Here I describe a little bit of his intellectual influence, in a form that is I hope accessible to average people.The "rational expectations" revolution that brought down Keynesianism in the 1970s was really much larger than that. It was really the "general equilibrium" revolution. Macroeconomics until 1970 was sharply different from regular microeconomics. Economics is all about "models," complete toy economies that we construct via equations and in computer programs. You can't keep track of everything in even the most beautiful prose. Microeconomic models, and "general equilibrium" as that term was used at the time, wrote down how people behave — how they decide what to buy, how hard to work, whether to save, etc.. Then it similarly described how companies behave and how government behaves. Set this in motion and see where it all settles down; what prices and quantities result. But for macroeconomic issues, this approach was sterile. I took a lot of general equilibrium classes as a PhD student — Berkeley, home of Gerard Debreu was strong in the field. But it was devoted to proving the existence of equilibrium with more and more general assumptions, and never got around to calculating that equilibrium and what it might say about recessions and government policies. Macroeconomics, exemplified by the ISLM tradition, inhabited a different planet. One wrote down equations for quantities rather than people, for example that "consumption" depended on "income," and investment on interest rates. Most importantly, macroeconomics treated each year as a completely separate economy. Today's consumption depended on today's income, having nothing to do with whether people expected the future to look better or worse. Economists recognized this weakness, and a vast and now thankfully forgotten literature tried fruitlessly to find "micro foundations" for Keynesian economics. But building foundations under an existing castle doesn't work. The foundations want a different castle. Bob's "islands" paper is famous, yes, for a complete model of how unexpected money might move output in the short run and not just raise inflation. But you can do that with a half a page of simple math, and Bob's paper is hard to read. It's deeper contribution, and the reason for that difficulty, is that Bob wrote out a complete "general equilibrium" model. People, companies and government each follow described rules of behavior. Those rules are derived as being the optimal thing for people and companies to do given their environment. And they are forward-looking. People think about how to make their whole lives as pleasant as possible, companies to maximize the present value of profits. Prices adjust so supply = demand. Bob said, by example, that we should do macroeconomics by writing down general equilibrium models. General equilibrium had also been abandoned by the presumption that it only studies perfect economies. Macroeconomics is really about studying how things go wrong, how "frictions" in the economy, such as the "sticky" wages underlying Keynesian thinking, can produce undesirable and unnecessary recessions. But here too, Bob requires us to write down the frictions explicitly. In his model, people don't see the aggregate price level right away, and do the best they can with local information. That is the real influence of the paper and Bob's real influence in the profession. (Current macroeconomic modeling reflects the fact that the Fed sets interest rates, and does not control the money supply.) You can see this influence in Tom Sargent's textbooks. The first textbook has an extensive treatment of Keynesian economics. It's about the most comprehensible treatment there is — but it is no insult to Tom to say that in that book you can see how Keynesian economics really doesn't hang together. Tom describes how, the minute he learned from Bob how to to general equilibrium, everything changed instantly. Rational expectations was, like any other advance, a group effort. But what made Bob the leader was that he showed the rest how to do general equilibrium. This is the heart of my characterization that Bob is the most important macroeconomist of the 20th century. Yes, Keynes and Friedman had more policy impact, and Friedman's advocacy of free markets in microeconomic affairs is the most consequential piece of 20th century economics. But within macroeconomics, there is before Lucas and after Lucas. Everyone today does economics the Lucas way. Even the most new-Keynesian article follows the Lucas rules of how to do economics. Once you see models founded on complete descriptions of people, businesses, government, and frictions, you can see the gaping holes in standard ISLM models. This is some of his stinging critique, such as "after Keynesian macroeconomics." Sure, if people's income goes up they are likely to consume more, as the Keynesians posited. But interest rates, wages, and expectations of the future also affect consumption, which Keynesians leave out. "Cross equations restrictions" and "budget constraints" are missing. Now, the substantive prediction that monetary policy can only move the real economy via unexpected money supply growth did not bear out, and both subsequent real business cycles and new-Keynesianism brought persistent responses. But the how we do macroeconomics part is the enduring contribution. The paper still had enduring practical lessons. Lucas, together with Friedman and Phelps brought down the Phillips curve. This curve, relating inflation to unemployment, had been (and sadly, remains) at the center of macroeconomics. It is a statistical correlation, but like many correlations people got enthused with it and started reading it as stable relationship, and indeed a causal one. Raise inflation and you can have less unemployment. Raise unemployment in order to lower inflation. The Fed still thinks about it in that causal way. But Lucas, Friedman, and Phelps bring a basic theory to it, and thereby realize it is just a correlation, which will vanish if you push on it. Rich guys wear Rolexes. That doesn't mean that giving everyone a Rolex will have a huge "multiplier" effect and make us all rich. This is the essence of the "Lucas critique" which is a second big contribution that lay readers can easily comprehend. If you push on correlations they will vanish. Macroeconomics was dedicated to the idea that policy makers can fool people. Monetary policy might try to boost output in a recession with a surprise bit of money growth. That will wok once or twice. But like the boy who cried wolf, people will catch on, come to expect higher money growth in recessions and the trick won't work anymore. Bob showed here that all the "behavioral" relations of Keynesian models will fall apart if you exploit them for policy, or push on them, though they may well hold as robust correlations in the data. The "consumption function" is the next great example. Keynesians noticed that when income rises people consume more, so write a consumption function relating consumption to income. But, following Friedman's great work on consumption, we know that correlation isn't always true in the data. The relation between consumption and income is different across countries (about one for one) than it is over time (less than one for one). And we understand that with Friedman's theory: People, trying to do their best over their whole lives don't follow mechanical rules. If they know income will fall in the future, they consume a lot less today, no matter what today's current income. Lucas showed that people who behave this sensible way will follow a Keynesian consumption function, given the properties of income overt the business cycle. You will see a Keynesian consumption function. Econometric estimates and tests will verify a Keynesian consumption function. Yet if you use the model to change policies, the consumption function will evaporate. This paper is devastating. Large scale Keynesian models had already been constructed, and used for forecasting and policy simulation. It's natural. The model says, given a set of policies (money supply, interest rates, taxes, spending) and other shocks, here is where the economy goes. Well, then, try different policies and find ones that lead to better outcomes. Bob shows the models are totally useless for that effort. If the policy changes, the model will change. Bob also showed that this was happening in real time. Supposedly stable parameters drifted around. (This one is also very simple mathematically. You can see the point instantly. Bob always uses the minimum math necessary. If other papers are harder, that's by necessity not bravado.) This devastation is sad in a way. Economics moved to analyzing policies in much simpler, more theoretically grounded, but less realistic models. Washington policy analysis sort of gave up. The big models lumber on, the Fred's FRBUS for example, but nobody takes the policy predictions that seriously. And they don't even forecast very well. For example, in the 2008 stimulus, the CEA was reduced to assuming a back of the envelope 1.5 multiplier, this 40 years after the first large scale policy models were constructed. Bob always praised the effort of the last generation of Keynesians to write explicit quantitative models, to fit them to data, and to make numerical predictions of various policies. He hoped to improve that effort. It didn't work out that way, but not by intention. This affair explains a lot of why economists flocked to the general equilibrium camp. Behavioral relationships, like what fraction of an extra dollar of income you consume, are not stable over time or as policy changes. But one hopes that preferences, — how impatient you are, how much you are willing to save more to get a better rate of return — and technology — how much a firm can produce with given capital and labor — do not change when policy changes. So, write models for policy evaluation at the level of preferences and technology, with people and companies at the base, not from behavioral relationships that are just correlations. Another deep change: Once you start thinking about macroeconomics as intertemporal economics — the economics that results from people who make decisions about how to consume over time, businesses make decisions about how to produce this year and next — and once you see that their expectations of what will happen next year, and what policies will be in place next year are crucial, you have to think of policy in terms of rules, and regimes, not isolated decisions. The Fed often asks economists for advice, "should we raise the funds rate?" Post Lucas macroeconomists answer that this isn't a well posed question. It's like saying "should we cry wolf?" The right question is, should we start to follow a rule, a regime, should we create an institution, that regularly and reliably raises interest rates in a situation like the current one? Decisions do not live in isolation. They create expectations and reputations. Needless to say, this fundamental reality has not soaked in to policy institutions. And that answer (which I have tried at Fed advisory meetings) leads to glazed eyes. John Taylor's rule has been making progress for 30 years trying to bridge that conceptual gap, with some success. This was, and remains, extraordinarily contentious. 50 years later, Alan Blinder's book, supposedly about policy, is really one long snark about how terrible Lucas and his followers are, and how we should go back to the Keynesian models of the 1960s. Some of that contention comes back to basic philosophy. The program applies standard microeconomics: derive people's behaviors as the best thing they can do given their circumstances. If people pick the best combination of apples and bananas when they shop, then also describe consumption today vs. tomorrow as the best they can do given interest rates. But a lot of economics doesn't like this "rational actor" assumption. It's not written in stone, but it has been extraordinarily successful. And it imposes a lot of discipline. There are a thousand arbitrary ways to be irrational. Somehow though, a large set of economists are happy to write down that people pick fruit baskets optimally, but don't apply the same rationality to decisions over time, or in how they think about the future. But "rational expectations" is really just a humility condition. It says, don't write models in which the predictions of the model are different from the expectations in the model. If you do, if your model is right, people will read the model and catch on, and the model won't work anymore. Don't assume you economist (or Fed chair) are so much less behavioral than the people in your model. Don't base policy on an attempt to fool the little peasants over and over again. It does not say that people are big super rational calculating machines. It just says that they eventually catch on. Some of the contentiousness is also understandable by career concerns. Many people had said "we should do macro seriously like general equilibrium." But it isn't easy to do. Bob had to teach himself, and get the rest of us to learn, a range of new mathematical and modeling tools to be able to write down interesting general equilibrium models. A 1970 Keynesian can live just knowing how to solve simple systems of linear equations, and run regressions. To follow Bob and the rational expectations crowd, you had to learn linear time-series statistics, dynamic programming, and general equilibrium math. Bob once described how tough the year was that it took him to learn functional analysis and dynamic programming. The models themselves consisted of a mathematically hard set of constructions. The older generation either needed to completely retool, fade away, or fight the revolution. Some good summary words: Bob's economics uses"rational expectations," or at least forward-looking and model-consistent expectations. Economics becomes "intertemporal," not "static" (one year at a time). Economics is "stochastic" as well as "dynamic," we can treat uncertainty over time, not just economies in which everyone knows the future perfectly. It applies "general equilibrium" to macroeconomics. And I've just gotten to the beginning of the 1970s. When I got to Chicago in the 1980s, there was a feeling of "well, you just missed the party." But it wasn't true. The 1980s as well were a golden age. The early rational expectations work was done, and the following real business cycles were the rage in macro. But Bob's dynamic programming, general equilibrium tool kit was on a rampage all over dynamic economics. The money workshop was one creative use of dynamic programs and interetempboral tools after another one, ranging from taxes to Thai villages (Townsend). I'll mention two. Bob's consumption model is at the foundation of modern asset pricing. Bob parachuted in, made the seminal contribution, and then left finance for other pursuits. The issue at the time was how to generalize the capital asset pricing model. Economists understood that some stocks pay higher returns than others, and that they must do so to compensate for risk. The understood that the risk is, in general terms, that the stock falls in some sense of bad times. But how to measure "bad times?" The CAPM uses the market, other models use somewhat nebulous other portfolios. Bob showed us that at least in the purest theory, that stocks must pay higher average returns if they fall when consumption falls. (Breeden also constructed a consumption model in parallel, but without this "endowment economy" aspect of Bob's) This is the purest most general theory, and all the others are (useful) specializations. My asset pricing book follows. The genius here was to turn it all around. Finance had sensibly built up from portfolio theory, like supply and demand: Given returns, what stocks do you buy, and how much to you save vs. consume? Then, markets have to clear find the stock prices, and thus returns, given which people will buy exactly the amount that's for sale and consume what is produced. That's hard. (Technically, finding the vector of prices that clears markets is hard. Yes, N equations in N unknowns, but they're nonlinear and N is big.) Bob instead imagined that consumption is fixed at each moment in time, like a desert island in which so many coconuts fall each day and you can't store them or plant them. Then, you can just read prices from people's preferences. This gives the same answer as if the consumption you assume is fixed had derived from a complex production economy. You don't have to solve for prices that equate supply and demand. Brilliantly, though prices cause consumption to individual people, consumption causes prices in aggregate. This is part of Bob's contribution to the hard business of actually computing quantitative models in the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium tradition. Bob, with Nancy Stokey also took the new tools to the theory of taxation. (Bob Barro also was a founder of this effort in the late 1980s.) You can see the opportunity: we just learned how to handle dynamic (overt time, expectations of tomorrow matter to what you do today) stochastic (but there is uncertainty about what will happen tomorrow) economics (people make explicit optimizing decisions) for macro. How about taking that same approach to taxes? The field of dynamic public finance is born. Bob and Nancy, like Barro, show that it's a good idea for governments to borrow and then repay, so as to spread the pain of taxes evenly over time. But not always. When a big crisis comes, it is useful to execute a "state contingent default." The big tension of Lucas-Stokey (and now, all) dynamic public finance: You don't want any capital taxes for the incentive effects. If you tax capital, people invest less, and you just get less capital. But once people have invested, a capital tax grabs revenue for the government with no economic distortion. Well, that is, if you can persuade them you'll never do it again. (Do you see expectations, reputations, rules, regimes, wolves in how we think of policy?) Lucas and Stoney say, do it only very rarely to balance the disincentive of a bad reputation with the need to raise revenue in once a century calamities. Bob went on, of course, to be one of the founders of modern growth theory. I always felt he deserved a second Nobel for this work. He's absolutely right. Once you look at growth, it's hard to think about anything else. The average Indian lives on $2,000 per year. The average American, $60,000. That was $15,000 in 1950. Nothing else comes close. I only work on money and inflation because that's where I think I have answers. For us mortals, good research proceeds where you think you have an answer, not necessarily from working on Big Questions. Bob brilliantly put together basic facts and theory to arrive at the current breakthrough. Once you get out of the way, growth does not come from more capital, or even more efficiency. It comes from more and better ideas. I remember being awed by his first work for cutting through the morass and assembling the facts that only look salient in retrospect. A key one: Interest rates in poor countries are not much higher than they are in rich countries. Poor countries have lots of workers, but little capital. Why isn't the return on scarce capital enormous, with interest rates in the hundreds of percent, to attract more capital to poor countries? Well, you sort of know the answer, that capital is not productive in those countries. Productivity is low, meaning those countries don't make use of better ideas on how to organize production. Ideas too are produced by economics, but, as Paul Romer crystallized, they are fundamentally different from other goods. If I produce an idea, you can use it without hurting my use of it. Yes, you might drive down the monopoly profits I gain from my intellectual property. But if you use my Pizza recipe, that's not like using my car. I can still make Pizza, where if you use my car I can't go anywhere. Thus, the usual free market presumption that we will produce enough ideas is false. (Don't jump too quickly to advocate government subsides for ideas. You have to find the right ideas, and governments aren't necessarily good at subsidizing that search.) And the presumption that intellectual property should be preserved forever is also false. Once produced it is socially optimal for everyone to use it. I won't go on. It's enough to say that Bob was as central to the creation of idea-based growth theory, which dominates today, as he was to general equilibrium macro, which also dominates today.Bob is an underrated empiricist. Bob's work on the size distribution of firms (great tweet summary by Luis Garicano) similarly starts from basic facts of the size distribution of firms and the lack of relationship between size and growth rates. It's interesting how we can go on for years with detailed econometric estimates of models that don't get basic facts right. I loved Bob's paper on money demand for the Carnegie Rochester conference series. An immense literature had tried to estimate money demand functions with dynamics, and was pretty confusing. It made a basic mistake, by looking at first differences rather than levels and thereby isolating the noise and drowning out the signal. Bob made a few plots, basically rediscovered cointegration all on his own, and made sense of it all. And don't forget the classic international comparison of inflation-output relations. Countries with volatile inflation have less Phillips curve tradeoff, just as his islands model featuring confusion between relative prices and the price level predicts. One last note to young scholars. There is a tendency today to value people by the number of papers they produce, and how quickly they rise through the ranks. Read Bob's CV. He wrote about one paper a year, starting quite late in life. But, as Aesop said, they were lions. In his Nobel prize speech, Bob also passed on that he and his Nobel-winning generation at Chicago always felt they were in some backwater, where the high prestige stuff was going on at Harvard and MIT. You never know when it might be a golden age. And the AER rejected his islands paper (as well as Akerlof's lemons). If you know it's good, revise and try again. I will miss his brilliant papers as much as his generous personality. Update: See Ivan Werning's excellent "Lucas Miracles" for an appreciation by a real theorist.
Mención Internacional en el título de doctor ; Ciberespacio: la última frontera. Aquí es donde empieza la nueva misión de los juristas en buscar nuevas formas de ejercicio de los derechos humanos. Afortunadamente, no es una misión de ciencia ficción, sino un desafío real, actual y lleno de oportunidades. Consideramos que es el mejor momento para proponer esta tesis e iniciar un trabajo de investigación sobre la dinámica del derecho en la era de las nuevas tecnologías. La tesis está fundamentada en la investigación de este nuevo espacio donde ha entrado el ser humano, titular de los derechos y libertades fundamentales. Como cualquier entorno nuevo, despierta la curiosidad, la necesidad de explorar, pero también la necesidad de estar seguro. El ser humano está programado genéticamente para proteger su vida, integridad y libertad en cualquier entorno, tanto físico como virtual. La ciberseguridad es un tema nuevo, que empezó a fomentar los debates solo desde 1988. Estados, empresas privadas y especialistas se dieron cuenta rápidamente de la necesidad de regular este campo, incluso adaptando el derecho internacional a las nuevas realidades. Los conflictos, eventos frecuentes en la sociedad humana, han migrado rápidamente del espacio físico al espacio virtual, al igual que las armas. Los virus informáticos, las aplicaciones invasivas y el software de espionaje sustituyen a las armas y herramientas de guerra clásicas. Las medidas de seguridad propuestas e implementadas por las autoridades estatales con responsabilidades en el ámbito de la seguridad nacional, así como por empresas privadas que desarrollan programas para combatir ciberataques, basados en medidas de ciber espionaje o hack-back1, se adaptan a los nuevos desafíos tecnológicos, pero evitan solucionar problemas importantes para el individuo como el respeto a sus derechos fundamentales, cuyo reconocimiento y regulación le han costado años de lucha y fundamentación filosófico-legal. En este contexto, cuando la vida del ciudadano se traslada, cada vez más al espacio virtual con todos sus elementos - banca por internet, telemedicina, información e investigación de fuentes digitales, comercio electrónico, citas virtuales, realidad virtual - se deben proponer medidas para proteger el ciberespacio que pueden ser diseñadas en correlación directa con las medidas de seguridad aplicadas en el entorno offline. Si el entorno offline está claramente determinado, y hay actores con papeles muy claros (estados, territorios administrativos, instituciones con responsabilidades en el campo de la seguridad y protección de los ciudadanos, etc.), el espacio virtual sigue siendo una jungla, sin límites conocidos y con incipientes formas de órganos de control, que deberían proteger a los usuarios vulnerables para no ser víctimas de los manipuladores digitales. En este momento, las Naciones Unidas a través de sus comisiones y grupos de expertos, ha asumido el papel de garante de los derechos humanos en el ciberespacio, interpretando las disposiciones de los tratados internacionales y elaborando recomendaciones, para ciber conflictos y alianzas entre Estados y grandes empresas con control tecnológico sobre Internet, tanto en términos de contenido como de conexiones informáticas. A nivel de la Unión Europea, el papel de las instituciones comunitarias, bien definido en el proceso de desarrollo y aplicación de las normas jurídicas, permite diseñar un marco jurídico coherente para la política de ciberseguridad, asegurando un sistema de protección eficaz basado en la cooperación entre los Estados miembros, al mismo tiempo con una protección efectiva de los derechos individuales en el entorno virtual. La tradición democrática de los estados europeos contribuye a la identificación de soluciones viables con respecto a la libertad del ciberespacio y la importancia del individuo en la sociedad. El surgimiento y el fortalecimiento del papel de ENISA en la política europea de ciberseguridad, ofrece la ventaja de estandarizar, centralizar y explotar de manera coherente los datos comunicados por los Estados miembros con el fin de desarrollar normativas bien fundamentadas. Asimismo, esta tesis estudia algunas categorías de derechos fundamentales para descubrir la forma en que se ven influenciados por la nueva realidad de la vida cotidiana. El entorno en el que se ha estudiado y conceptualizado estos derechos a lo largo de la historia, hasta la confirmación en diversos instrumentos de derecho internacional, ha cambiado profundamente. Las amenazas comienzan a ser diversas, y para los juristas no especializados en informática, es un gran reto identificar las brechas en los mecanismos informáticos que garanticen y protejan los derechos fundamentales cuando el individuo actúa en el entorno online. Es posible que la generación de juristas nativos digitales se haga cargo del trabajo de los juristas adaptados digitalmente y sea capaz de construir un sistema legal aplicable a este nuevo entorno de vida del individuo. Esto será posible solo dentro de 10 años, cuando la nueva generación creada en la era de las nuevas tecnologías, posea la capacidad de analizar y proponer soluciones legales. La investigación se centra en el derecho a la privacidad y los elementos que lo componen, siendo considerado como uno de los derechos fundamentales más vulnerables en el entorno online. Los derechos derivados, como el derecho al nombre, la identidad, el honor, la dignidad y la integridad física se están transformando y adquiriendo nuevos valores en la era de las nuevas tecnologías. Algunos de estos derechos se transforman, se trasladan al ciberespacio, se adhieren al ser virtual y se convierten en derechos digitales, propios del nuevo entorno social. En el contenido de la tesis se desarrolló un capítulo dedicado a esta nueva categoría de derechos en el que se intenta establecer sus contenidos y las formas de manifestación. Con respecto a los mecanismos necesarios para garantizar el ejercicio de los derechos y libertades fundamentales, el trabajo analiza los distintos niveles de protección: desde el nivel supranacional (internacional), hasta el regional y nacional, específico de cada Estado. Los mecanismos institucionales y jurisdiccionales están organizados en gran medida de acuerdo con las mismas reglas, guiándose por las regulaciones internacionales sobre derechos humanos, en particular, continuando con las regulaciones a nivel regional y estatal. En el nuevo contexto tecnológico, es necesario revisar dichos mecanismos para que mantengan la misma eficiencia deseada en el momento de su creación. Un punto importante de la investigación consiste en el análisis de las restricciones aplicadas a los derechos humanos bajo el imperio de la Ley. Sin referirse a las injerencias ilegales, sino analizamos la injerencia permitida por la ley, especialmente en nombre de la seguridad colectiva. Seguidamente, se muestran los debates y análisis destinados a establecer el punto de equilibrio entre la importancia de un derecho fundamental u otro. Tanto el derecho a la vida privada como el derecho a la seguridad se consideran fundamentales, pero no absolutos. Desde esta perspectiva, se deben establecer límites claros para que la protección de uno no afecte la integridad del otro. Los Estados a veces imponen medidas excesivamente restrictivas del derecho a la privacidad en nombre de la seguridad nacional, y el ciberespacio es el entorno adecuado para tales prácticas. Cualquier práctica de este tipo, situada a uno de los dos extremos, ya sea muy invasiva en la esfera personal o ineficaz desde una perspectiva de seguridad, debe ser reevaluada y relacionada con los derechos humanos, tanto desde una perspectiva individual como colectiva. Por ejemplo, el derecho a la vida privada o el derecho a la seguridad del ser humano puede, dentro de límites razonables, restringir el derecho de otra persona a expresarse o manifestar ciertas necesidades mentales en el espacio digital. Teniendo en cuenta los objetivos propuestos al principio, aplicando los métodos de investigación correspondientes y analizando la literatura, el marco normativo vigente y la jurisprudencia en derechos humanos, esta tesis identifica y enfatiza la interacción entre los derechos humanos fundamentales y los efectos sociales de las nuevas tecnologías, incluyendo las consecuencias sobre los derechos conexos. En este contexto particularmente dinámico, el mayor desafío para la nueva generación de juristas será adaptar el marco legal actual, a las nuevas realidades del mundo digital. Dado que las normas de derecho que rigen nuestra vida cotidiana han evolucionado lentamente y durante un largo período de tiempo, la rápida evolución tecnológica y la migración del individuo al espacio virtual requieren una urgente adaptación del marco legal a las nuevas realidades para que la Ley pueda mantener su misión de guardián del bienestar público. Además, esta nueva pandemia, origina y causa inciertos ampliamente cuestionado en el entorno online, ha provocado una restricción en masa de los derechos humanos similar a la última guerra mundial. Se ha restringido el derecho a la: libertad de circulación, manifestación, reunión, expresión, educación, trabajo e incluso el derecho a buscar la felicidad. Por la limitación de estos derechos la gente, por temor al enemigo invisible e incomprendido, aceptó sin oposición la mayor parte todas estas injerencias de las autoridades en su vida privada y en el conjunto de sus libertades fundamentales. Solo pequeños grupos de activistas continúan luchando por defender sus derechos fundamentales. No sabemos si este evento global llamado pandemia COVID 19 reescribirá la historia de los derechos fundamentales, pero es cierto que su impacto en el ámbito de las libertades individuales ha tenido un efecto muy fuerte e inquietante con respecto a otra transformación, incluida la revolución tecnológica. En estas condiciones, nos queda una única opción o desafío: defender al individuo, con todos sus atributos, en una sociedad dinámica, caracterizada por transformaciones atípicas. ; Spațiul cibernetic – ultima frontieră. Aici începe misiunea juriștilor în căutarea noilor forme de exercitare a drepturilor omului. Din fericire, nu este o misiune science- fiction, ci este o provocare reală, actuală și plină de oportunități. Consider că am ales cel mai bun moment pentru a propune această teza și a iniția o muncă de cercetare asupra dinamicii dreptului în era noilor tehnologii. Această eră este abia la început. Lucrarea de față pornește de la cercetarea acestui nou spațiu în care a pătruns ființa umană deținătoare a drepturilor și libertăților fundamentale. Ca orice mediu nou, stârnește curiozitatea, nevoia de a explora dar și nevoia de a fi în siguranță. Ființa umană este programată genetic să își protejeze viața, integritatea și libertatea în orice mediu s-ar afla, atât fizic cât și virtual. Securitatea spațiului cibernetic este o temă nouă, se discută despre acest subiect abia din anul 1988. Statele, companiile private și specialiștii au conștientizat rapid necesitatea reglementării acestui domeniu, inclusiv prin adaptarea dreptului internațional la noile realități. Conflictele, evenimente frecvente în societatea umană, au migrat rapid din spațiul fizic în spațiul virtual, la fel și armele. Virușii informatici, aplicațiile intruzive, softurile de spionaj iau locul clasicelor arme și unelte de război. Măsurile de securitate propuse și implementate de autoritățile statale cu atribuții în domeniul securității naționale, cât și de companiile private care dezvoltă programe de combatere a atacurilor cibernetice, bazate pe spionaj cibernetic sau măsuri de tipul hack-back se adaptează noilor provocări tehnologice, dar ocolesc teme importante pentru individ cum ar fi respectarea drepturilor sale fundamentale, a căror recunoaștere și reglementare au costat ani buni de luptă și fundamentare filosofico-juridică. În contextul în care viața cetățeanului migrează din ce în ce mai mult către spațiul virtual, cu toate elementele ei – internet banking, telemedicină, informare și cercetare din surse digitale, comerț electronic, virtual dating, virtual reality – măsurile de protecție a spațiului cibernetic trebuie gândite în directă corelare cu măsurile de securitate aplicate în mediul off-line. Dacă mediul off-line este clar determinat și există actori cu roluri clare (state, teritorii administrative, instituții cu atribuții în domeniul securității și siguranței cetățeanului etc.), spațiul virtual este încă o junglă, fără limite cunoscute și cu organisme XIV de supraveghere în stadiu incipient de dezvoltare care ar trebui să poată proteja utilizatorii vulnerabili în cazul în care devin victime ale unor manipulatori digitali. La acest moment Organizația Națiunilor Unite, prin comisiile și grupurile de experți, și-a asumat rolul de garant al drepturilor omului în spațiul cibernetic, interpretând prevederile tratatelor internaționale și elaborând recomandări pentru conflictele cibernetice și parteneriatul dintre state și marile companii care dețin controlul tehnologic asupra Internetului, atât din perspectiva conținutului cât și al conexiunilor informatice. La nivelul Uniunii Europene, rolul instituțiilor comunitare, fiind bine definit în ceea ce privește elaborarea și implementarea normelor de drept, permite creionarea unui cadru legal coerent în ceea ce privește politica de securitate cibernetică, asigurarea unui sistem efectiv de protecție bazat pe cooperarea dintre statele membre, dar și protecția efectivă a drepturilor individuale în mediul online. Tradiția democratică a statelor europene contribuie la identificarea unor soluții viabile în ceea ce privește libertatea spațiului cibernetic și importanța individului în societate. Apariția și întărirea rolului ENISA în politica europeană de securitate cibernetică oferă avantajul uniformizării, centralizării și exploatării coerente a datelor raportate de statele membre în vederea elaborării unor reglementări corect fundamentate. Teza studiază și categoriile de drepturi fundamentale din perspectiva modului în care acestea se văd influențate de noua realitate a vieții cotidiene. Mediul în care aceste drepturi au fost studiate și conceptualizate de-a lungul istoriei până la momentul proclamării lor în diverse instrumente de drept internațional, s-a schimbat profund. Amenințările încep să fie altele decât cele cunoscute, iar pentru juriști, eminamente atehnici, este o mare provocare identificarea breșelor din mecanismele de garantare și protecție a drepturilor fundamentale atunci când individul acționează în mediul online. Este posibil ca generația juriștilor nativi digitali să preia munca juriștilor adaptați digitali și să poată construi un sistem legal aplicabil acestui nou mediu de viață al individului, dar acest lucru va fi posibil abia peste 10 ani când noua generație, născută în epoca noilor tehnologii, va avea capacitatea de a analiza și propune soluții juridice. Cercetarea s-a focalizat cu precădere asupra dreptului la viață privată și a elementelor care îl compun, considerat fiind ca unul dintre cele mai vulnerabile drepturi fundamentale în mediul on line. Drepturile derivate, precum dreptul la nume, la identitate, la onoare, la demnitate, la integritate fizică se transformă și capătă noi valențe în era noilor tehnologii. O parte dintre aceste drepturi se transformă, migrează în spațiul cibernetic, se atașează ființei virtuale și devin drepturi digitale, specifice noului mediul de viață socială. În cuprinsul tezei a fost dezvoltat un capitol dedicat acestei noi categorii de drepturi în care se încearcă stabilirea conținutului și a formei de manifestare. În ceea ce privește mecanismele de garantare a exercițiului drepturilor și libertăților fundamentale, lucrarea analizează diversele niveluri de protecție: de la nivelul suprastatal (internațional), la cel regional și cel național, specific fiecărui stat. Mecanismele instituționale și jurisdicționale se organizează în mare parte după aceleași reguli fiind ghidate de reglementările internaționale în materia drepturilor omului, cu precădere, continuând cu reglementările la nivel regional și statal. În noul context tehnologic, inclusiv aceste mecanisme necesită o revizuire astfel încât să își poată păstra eficiența dorită la momentul creării lor. Un punct important al lucrării îl reprezintă analiza restrângerilor aplicate drepturilor omului sub imperiul legii. Așadar nu ne referim la ingerințele aflate în sfera ilegalului, ci la ingerințele permise de lege, în special în numele securității colective. Aici apar dezbaterile și analizele care vizează stabilirea punctului de echilibru între importanța unui drept fundamental sau al altuia. Atât dreptul la viață privată, cât și dreptul la securitate sunt considerate fundamentale, dar nu absolute. Din această perspectivă, trebuie stabilite limite clare astfel încât protejarea unuia să nu afecteze integritatea celuilalt. Uneori statele stabilesc măsuri restrictive exagerate asupra dreptului la viață privată în numele securității naționale, iar spațiul cibernetic este mediul propice pentru acest gen de practici. Orice practică de acest gen, aflată la una dintre cele două extreme, fie intrusivă în sfera personală, fie ineficientă din perspectiva securității, trebuie reevaluată și corelată cu drepturile omului, atât din perspectivă individuală cât și colectivă. De exemplu, dreptul la viață privată sau dreptul la securitate al ființei umane poate restrânge, în limite rezonabile, dreptul altei persoane de a se exprima sau de a-și manifesta anumite nevoi psihice în spațiul digital. Ținând cont de obiectivele propuse, cu aplicarea metodelor de cercetare asumate și analizând literatura de specialitate, cadrul normativ în vigoare și jurisprudența referitoare la drepturile omului, această teză identifică și subliniază interacțiunea dintre drepturile fundamentale ale ființei umane și efectele sociale ale noilor tehnologii, inclusiv consecințele asupra drepturilor conexe. În acest context deosebit de dinamic, cea mai mare provocare pentru noua generație de juriști va fi adaptarea cadrului legal în vigoare la noile realități ale lumii digitale. În condițiile în care normele de drept care ne guvernează viața de zi cu zi au avut o evoluție lentă și extinsă pe o perioadă lungă de timp, evoluția tehnologică rapidă și migrarea individului în spațiul virtual impun o adaptare urgentă a cadrului legal la noile realități astfel încât norma de drept să își poată păstra misiunea de gardian al binelui public. Mai mult, această nouă pandemie, cu origini și cauze incerte, aprig dezbătute în mediul online, a determinat o restrângere în masă a drepturilor omului poate la fel de acerbă cu cea provocată de ultimul război mondial. Ne-au fost restrânse pe rând dreptul la libertatea de mișcare, dreptul la întruniri, dreptul la manifestări, dreptul la exprimare, dreptul la educație, dreptul la muncă și inclusiv dreptul la căutarea fericirii. Iar oamenii, de teama inamicului nevăzut și neînțeles, au acceptat în cea mai mare parte toate aceste ingerințe ale autorităților în viața lor privată și în cercul libertăților lor fundamentale. Grupuri mici de activiști continuă lupta de apărare a drepturilor lor fundamentale. Nu știm dacă acest eveniment global numit pandemie va rescrie istoria drepturilor fundamentale, dar cert este că impactul lui asupra sferei libertăților individuale a avut un efect mult mai abrupt și mai intrusiv decât orice altă transformare, inclusiv cea tehnologică. În aceste condiții, ne rămâne o singură opțiune: aceea de a apăra individul, cu toate atributele sale, într-o societate dinamică, caracterizată de transformări atipice. ; Cyberspace - the last frontier. This is where the mission of the lawyers begins: to search new forms of human rights manifestation. Fortunately, it is not a science-fiction mission, but a real, current and full of opportunities challenge. We consider that this is the best-chosen moment to propose this paper and to initiate a research work on the dynamics of law under the era of new technologies. Because this era has just begun. This thesis aims to explore this new space where the human being, holder of fundamental rights and freedoms, has entered. Like any new environment, the digital world arouses curiosity, engages the human need to explore but also activates the need to be safe. The human being is genetically programmed to protect his life, integrity and freedom in any type of environment, no matter if is real or virtual. Cybersecurity is a new topic; this topic has been brought in public debates only since 1988. States, private companies and specialists have quickly become aware of the need of regulation in this area, including by adapting international law to new realities. Conflicts, as frequent events in human society, have rapidly migrated from physical to the virtual space. The weapons as well. Cyber viruses, spyware, worms, malware took the place of the classic weapons and tools of war. The proposed security measures were implemented by state authorities with responsibilities in the field of national security, as well as by private companies. The efforts made to develop programs to fight against cyber-attacks, based on cyber espionage or hack-back measures, must be adapted to ever new technological challenges, but not forgetting the important issues for the individual human being, such the respect for his fundamental rights, whose recognition and regulation have cost years of legal struggle and philosophical debates. In this context, where the life of the citizen migrates more and more to the virtual space, with all its elements - internet banking, telemedicine, information and research from digital sources, electronic commerce, virtual dating, virtual reality – protective measures for cyberspace must designed in direct correlation with the security measures applied in the offline environment. If the offline environment is clearly determined, populated with actors playing key roles (states, administrative territories, institutions with responsibilities in the field of XVIII security and safety of citizens, etc.), the virtual space is still a jungle, with unknown limits and incipient supervisory bodies struggling to protect vulnerable users against digital criminals. At this moment, the United Nations, through its commissions and expert groups, has taken on the role of human rights protector in cyberspace, interpreting the provisions of international treaties and developing recommendations for cyber conflicts and partnerships between states and large companies with technological control over the Internet, both in terms of digital content and computer connections. In the European Union, the specific role of the public institutions in the legal area allows drafting a coherent legal framework for cybersecurity policy, ensuring an effective system of protection based on cooperation between Member States, also bringing an effective protection of individual rights in the online environment. Also, the democratic tradition of Member States contributes in finding viable solutions regarding the freedom of cyberspace respecting, in the same time, the social importance of the human being. The creation on ENISA, with its determined role in the European cybersecurity policy, offers the advantage of a coherent approach in standardizing, centralizing and exploiting the data reported by Member States in order to develop well-founded regulations. The thesis also studies some categories of fundamental rights observing the new perspective of human liberty and privacy induced by technology and digitalization of reality. It is obvious that the initial environment where these rights have been studied and conceptualized has radically changed and their legal confirmation in the international law must be adapted to the new reality. The new digital threats to human fundamental rights are different from the known ones, and for the lawyers, who are non-technical by nature, it is a great challenge to identify the gaps in the informatics mechanisms of protecting fundamental rights when the person acts in the online environment. Maybe the generation of digital native lawyers will take over the work of digitally adapted lawyers and will be able to build a legal system applicable to this new living environment of the individual, but this success will be possible only after the next 10 years, when the new generation, born in the age of new technologies, will have the ability to analyze and propose legal solutions. The research focused mainly on the right to privacy and its legal components, being considered as one of the most vulnerable fundamental rights in the online environment. Connected human rights, such as the right to a name and to a nationality, identity, honor, dignity, physical integrity, are transforming and gaining new values in the era of technology. Some of these rights are reinvented and relocated into cyberspace, where they attach to the virtual human being and become digital rights, specific to the digital social environment. In the thesis there we dedicated a chapter to this new category of human liberties, aiming to establish the content and the limits of these new digital rights. Regarding the mechanisms for guaranteeing the exercise of fundamental rights and freedoms, the paper analyzes the various levels of protection: from the supranational (international) level, to the regional and national level, specific to each state. The institutional and jurisdictional mechanisms are largely organized according to the same rules, being guided by international human rights framework, at a global level, and particularly regulated by regional or local specific legal regulations. In the new technological context, these mechanisms need to be revised so that they can maintain their desired efficiency as the moment of their creation. Another important point of this paper is the analysis of the restrictions applied to human rights under the rule of law. So, we are not referring to any illegal interference, but we analyze the limitations allowed by law, especially in the name of collective security. This is the point where debates and analyzes converge in finding the perfect balance between the importance of one fundamental right to another. Both right to privacy and right to security are considered fundamental, but not absolute. From this perspective, clear boundaries must be set so that the exercise of one right does not affect the integrity of the other. Sometimes states impose overly restrictive measures on the right to privacy in the name of national security, and cyberspace is the perfect environment for such practices. Any practice situated at one of the two extremes, either intrusive in the personal sphere or inefficient from a security perspective, must be re-evaluated and correlated with the human rights, both from an individual and a collective perspective. For example, the right to privacy or the right to security of one person may interfere, in reasonable limits, with the right of another person to express himself or herself or to manifest certain psychical needs in the digital space. Fallowing the proposed objectives, applying the specific research methods and analyzing the legal literature, the regulatory framework and the jurisprudence on human rights, this thesis identifies and emphasizes the interaction between fundamental human rights and the social effects of the new technologies, including the consequences on related rights. In this particularly dynamic context, the biggest challenge for the new generation of lawyers will be to adapt the current legal framework to the new realities of the digital world. Given that the rules of law governing our daily lives have a long and slow evolution, this rapid technological revolution and the migration of the individual into virtual space urge for a quick adjustment of the legal framework to new realities so that the rule of law to be able to keep its mission of guardian of the public welfare. Moreover, this new pandemic, with uncertain origins and causes, hotly debated in the online environment, has led to a more severe human rights restriction than the last world war. We have been restricted in our right to freedom of movement, right to public meeting, right to manifestation, right to expression, right to education, right to work and even our right to pursue happiness. Under the fear of the unseen and unknown enemy, people accepted the most part all these interferences from the authorities in their private lives and in their circle of fundamental freedoms. Small groups of activists continue the fight to defend their fundamental rights. We do not know whether this global event called the pandemic will rewrite the history of fundamental rights, but it is certain that its impact on the individual freedoms has already determined a huge and more intrusive impact than any other transformation, including technological. Under these conditions, we have only one challenge: to defend the human individual in this dynamic society, with all its attributes, characterized by atypical transformations. ; Programa de Doctorado en Estudios Avanzados en Derechos Humanos por la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid ; Presidente: Carlos Ramón Fernández Liesa.- Secretario: María Pilar Trinidad Núñez.- Vocal: Radu Carp
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French voters head to the ballot box on Sunday 30th June in the first round of a high-stakes parliamentary election. Three features of French politics, often overlooked, are crucial to understand the evolution of the vote in France: euroscepticism from French far right and far left; how populism is already part and parcel of everyday politics; and the power of hard right-wing media.No sooner had the results of the European elections been announced on June 9, that the French president called a snap parliamentary election. His party Renaissance took a drubbing and the hard right Rassemblement National (RN) won its best ever result with 31.37% of the vote. Emmanuel Macron's decision stunned millions of French people. Although Renaissance has not had a majority in parliament since 2022, a certain number of laws have been passed. France has been difficult to govern but not ungovernable but what exasperates many people is Mr. Macron's alleged "narcissistic management". Two weeks later, the president's gamble appears to have backfired. Instead of rallying his supporters in favour of moderate liberal democracy, it has succeeded in boosting extremes of left and right. Mr Macron has often dismissed the hard right and the hard left La France Insoumise (LFI), whose thinking dominates the hastily assembled alliance of left-wing parties le Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), as birds of a feather. The leader of LFI, Jean-Luc Mélenchon returns the compliment, dismissing Le Pen's fast rising number two, the 28 year old Jordan Bardella as a "worse version of Emmanuel Macron". The RN is credited with well over thirty per cent of the vote in the first round of the elections due on 30th June while NFP is expected to come in second place. Macron's centrist forces are trail in third position. Voters are expected to turn out in record numbers for a general election which makes forecasting the result exceptionally difficult. Overlooked features of French politicsTwo features of French politics are often overlooked by observers. The first is that the hard left and the hard right share a very sceptical, not to say hostile attitude towards the Brussels bureaucracy whose very DNA include the liberal economic policy which has been the hallmark of western industrialised countries since the 1980s. But whereas the RN has trimmed its economic sails in recent days, the NFP has promised to increase the basic wage and reimpose the wealth tax which the president cancelled in 2017. NFP refuses to accept that the world's billionaires – not least the French ones, have increased their wealth by roughly 3 trillion Euros since the pandemic while the rest, whether poor or just managing have lost out. Many ordinary French people live in a state of permanent insecurity. The hard right is not, however, the one-trick pony it is often described as. Immigration is not its only obsession though it has stirred the pot of anti-Muslim, anti-north African for decades in its successful bid to gain support among left behind white males. Like the Left its world view pivots around the idea of nation and "French way of life" as the sacrosanct bedrock of everything. After first winning the presidency in 2017 by uniting the centre right and the centre left under his new party, Emmanuel Macron turned to more right-wing policies. This is where the second factor kicks in. His policies were more right-wing on social benefits, immigration, Islam and public order; he extolled patriotism and pledged to fight wokism in academia. He only remained a liberal on feminist and gender issues. The rise of Marine le Pen gives the impression that, as elsewhere in Europe, French society is drifting to the right. The reality is that populism is already part and parcel of everyday politics. In his article for the Financial Times "Will France fall to populism?", Olivier Roy notes that all major French political parties bar the Socialists function along the populist conception of politics which includes "a charismatic leader appealing directly to the people while ruling his or her party through a camarilla of close friends or family members and proxies".How the president has stolen the clothes of the right and the extreme-right is forensically analysed by Jean Francois Bayart in his book "Malheur à la Ville dont le Prince est un Enfant. De Macron à Le Pen. 2017-2024". After he was first elected, Mr. Macron followed a trend set by Nicolas Sarkozy in bypassing French institutions by appointing businessmen to diplomatic and academic positions and engaging private consultancies to perform tasks which were previously done by civil servants. He never disguises his contempt for "the deep state", traditional political parties or elected mayors and local councillors. His decision to call the election was decided by a few advisors at the Élysée Palace which did not include the prime minister, Gabriel Attal. The broader world contextThe ultimate fate of French political institutions and parties in what is called the radical right will not however be decided by any of this year's elections, be it in France, the UK or elsewhere in Europe. In his blog The Constant Reporter, Alain Catzeflis argues that the fate of Europe will be decided "by the generation that has turned old enough to vote: Generation Z." Western democracies face the plague of falling investment, insufficient productivity and social tensions. Can they be "reengineered to generate growth, jobs and functioning public services? Can enough housing be built to allow Generation Z to become home owners and feel they have a stake in the future?". The phoney cultural wars of the far right are the consequence of the virtual disappearance of parties which have dominated the industrialised West – France in particular since WWII. The market-led economic model which intended levelling up but has merely entrenched a two-tier wealth system has fostered deep disillusion. Mr. Macron has brought down unemployment to its lowest levels in decades and made France the most attractive country in Europe for Foreign Direct Investment. But the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have not allowed him to put public finances in order. Another factor is at play in a country which boasts the largest Jewish and the largest Muslim population of any country in Europe. The charge of antisemitism, a traditional rallying cry against the extreme right is now often used against the extreme left. A prominent figure of the fight against antisemitism, Serge Klarsfeld has called for voters to endorse the FN against LFI but that makes many Jewish electors, mindful of the antisemitic antecedents of the party Marine Le Pen's father, Jean Marie created half a century ago, very uncomfortable. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is open to criticism because he gives the impression of supporting the Palestinians to gain votes among Muslim voters, which puts the latter in a very awkward position. He is also the heir of a tradition of antisemitism on the Left which stretches back two centuries and associates Jews with triumphant capitalism. The trajectory France is following is marked by the steady erosion of collective solidarity and social conquests that were put in place after 1945, the questioning of public freedoms and the trivialisation of racist discourse. The political class bears much of the responsibility for this sorry state of affairs but the growing role of the hard right-wing media is a third, often overlooked factor in the wave of populism sweeping France. Fox News and Rupert Murdoch now have their French counterpart, the recently built media empire of the billionaire Vincent Bolloré, whose family motto is "kneel before God, stand before men". Europe 1 and CNews sounded very Trumpian when, after the Hamas attack on Israel, they launched a barrage of attacks against politicians and artists who dared show sympathy for the plight of the Palestinian. The growing number of media belonging to Mr. Bolloré equate criticism of Zionism and Israel with antisemitism. Islam in their view is inherently intolerant and the DNA of anyone who practises it must incline him or her to terrorism. The RN wants to privatise the French state media. Vincent Bolloré fully agrees. Such a policy would further undermine democracy in France.All the publications express the opinions of their individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CIDOB or its donors.
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For different reasons, Bossier Parish voters should reject all four property tax renewals on Saturday's ballot and tell the various powers-that-be to try again before it's too late.
Bossier City has two such items on tap, both of which are identically dedicated to public safety operations and maintenance. Both are ten years in length starting in 2026, pitched at current levies (rolled back from previous authorized maximums, as property values have risen in recent years) of 8.32 and 2.71 mills that would generate about $8.6 million in annual revenue. These do not cover salaries, which are supplemented by a 5.98 mill measure approved at 6.19 mills in 2020.
The city was smarter this time around than back then. Four years ago, with that millage then set at 6.00, in essence it allowed for a future tax increase by the city asking for 6.19 and received negative publicity for that although the measure passed. Then as now, it occurred within a year of city elections; the next year the mayor and two city councilors got dumped by voters. So, this time the city pinned the renewals at the current rates, and hopes the assessment report from the parish that soon will be completed will show increased values and allow for a roll back later this year, just in time for elections next year.
In 2022, the latest date for which figures are available, the city spent net of charges for service $27.6 million on public safety, so the amount in question represents 31.2 percent of that kind of spending. That amount is a bit less than the $9 million the city spent on interest for non-enterprise debt – that is, money that goes to paying off a parking garage for a private concern in and out of receivership, a high-tech office building (and expansions around it), a money-losing (about $10 million so far) arena, playing fields and recreational buildings that only private organizations often of non-residents can use, and a duplicative roadway complete with statute extolling past and present politicians – and significantly less than the $11.8 million paid out that year to extinguish a portion of that debt, which stood at $214 million.
Meanwhile, at the end of that year the city sat on $37.6 million in the general fund, $30 million in its Riverboat Gaming Special Revenue Fund, and $18.9 million in the Public Health and Safety Permanent Fund. By ordinance (and in the case of the Permanent Fund, permission of the attorney general), the entire amounts could be used to fund current operations, meaning even missing a few years of these taxes could be offset without service reductions.
Therefore, city voters should send a message to their elected officials by voting negatively on the taxes. By law, the city could get a couple of more cracks at approval before expiration, and voting down these now could tell officials to get debt under control that would facilitate, among other things but perhaps the most crucial priority now a pay raise for public safety employees, where after that show of good faith would demonstrate the merits of future approval. For example, the city could sell the Brookshire Grocery Arena, revoke already-authorized tens of millions of dollars in unissued debt, and/or scratch from capital outlay plans what appears to be yet another attempt to foist an unneeded recreational center onto taxpayer's backs.
Bossier Parish's 7.43 mill renewal (rolled back from 7.73) for library operations also needs rejection, as a different message sent. That would collect $9.5 million annually, which is well above the 2022 expenditures of $7.3 million. In fact, there was so much excess that $2 million was shoveled from it towards construction of the just-opened Central Library. Both the Library Fund and Library Construction Fund had healthy balances of $3.4 million and $6.9 million (although estimated remaining costs for the new library of $5.3 million had yet to be realized).
Still, a year without this funding would leave a gaping hole in the library's budget. Nor could the general fund provide much cushion, as most recently the parish has run a deficit in it after transfers to prop up other areas of parish government, leaving a balance at the end of 2022 of just $7.2 million.
Yet perhaps that's the lesson the Police Jury needs to have delivered, which is the only known body in the state to appoint its own members to a library board of control, a legally questionable practice subject to a pending attorney general's opinion (which over a month ago was described as nearing completion, but perhaps timed so that it comes out after the election?). Absolutely unambiguously it violated R.S. 25:214 by appointing more than seven members to the Board and allowing them to meet in that fashion and in the past also violated R.S. 25:215 by appointing for several months Parish Administrator Butch Ford as head librarian, when the law stipulated that this officer had to have certifications that Ford lacked.
Bossier Parish police jurors have shown they are a hard-headed lot and more than willing to break the law when it gets in their way. Parish voters telling them to go back to the drawing board by rejecting the renewal might be the only way to make them more accountable and stay within the law, which then would merit future renewal.
Finally, the Cypress Black Bayou Water Conservation and Recreation District renewal of 1.54 mills that most parish voters will have to assess also deserves defeat. Unlike with the other measures where elected officials can show behavioral changes that induce later voter acceptance, this one may be beyond any hope.
This levy actually is a slight decrease from the 1.56 authorized last time and currently assessed, putting it at the level of the previous reauthorization in 2014. Undoubtedly, setting it at that is a reaction to the debacle in 2019 when district board – comprised of five unelected commissioners appointed by various Bossier governments – basically wanted to double the tax five years early, and got drubbed at the polls as most but not all of parish residents are subject to the tax and 97 percent don't own land regulated by the district.
The new version, which would last from 2025 to 2034, would raise a bit under $1.5 million annually, which would be around three-quarters of its total 2022 revenue haul. Debt service for the 2025-27 period, which is when all its debt will be extinguished, runs just over $1 million. Other expenses, which are all cultural and recreational in nature, net of charges for services cost $1.2 million. About five-eighths of those charges come from fees charged to users of the park area and waterways, and around three-eighths come from landowners around the waterways who have to pay mandatory fees.
However, the fact remains that few of the 97 percent ever visit the area (which they have to pay to enter whether they already paid property taxes for it) and it has strayed very much from its original intent as a water management entity. In fact, in its entire history stemming back to 1958 it only ever has made one water sale, which otherwise could be a major source of revenue, as its management has focused on running it like a park.
Almost all of its expenses come from its recreation activities, even though those tied to landowners make up a tiny portion of that, who end up subsidizing others' recreation. Most expenditures would go away, and the need for property tax subsidization, without its acting like a park.
So, don't let it act like a park, at least as it currently is governed. It should return to a basic duty of water sales, which has low expenses, and user fees for boat launching or even beach usage should be enough to pay for minimal staff, and chuck the rest of its activities. Better, have the state adopt it as a park by extinguishing its debt and taking it into the state park system, and conduct water sales through the Department of Energy and Natural Resources. Covenants can be put on landowners but there would be no need for them to pay fees.
Or for most of the rest of the parish's residents to pay the property tax. Voters can kickstart this conversion process of going from a patronage sinkhole with largely unaccountable governance too willing to chase grandiose schemes on the taxpayer dime to focusing on state objectives with streamlined management, if not operations, by rejecting its taxpayer funding, and again in November when it would be guaranteed to try again less than two months before loss of this revenue.
Bossier voters just need to remember one thing when they hit the polls on Apr. 27 – no, in quadruplicate.
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On March 8, a Manhattan federal court found Juan Orlando Hernández, president of Honduras from 2014 to 2022, guilty of conspiracy to import large amounts of cocaine into the United States over nearly two decades. Mainstream U.S. media generally framed the ex-president's trial and conviction as a triumph of justice, a service rendered by the impartial U.S. justice system to the people of Honduras.The great majority of such accounts, however, ignored and obscured context crucial for understanding Hernández's rise and rule; in particular, how Washington contributed to both. Though the mainstream narrative around the ex-president rightly connects his tenure in office with massive emigration from Honduras, it has elided the degree to which U.S. influence enabled Hernández's career and thus partially drove the migration that arose in response. For roughly two centuries, Honduras, the original "banana republic," has suffered a deeply unequal relationship with the far more powerful United States. One of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere, Honduras and its people have endured frequent American military interventions, U.S.-backed coups, and a corrupt, rapacious local oligarchy closely tied to U.S. corporate interests.Despite Hernández's ultimate conviction on U.S. soil, he served Washington for many years as a loyal client. The single most important event in the ex-president's political career was a 2009 coup, which overthrew center-left president Manuel Zelaya (whose wife, Xiomara Castro, won election in 2021 and currently occupies the presidency). Zelaya raised the minimum wage, subsidized small farmers, and authorized the morning-after pill, infuriating the country's business elite and, in the last case, ultra-conservative religious leaders. Moreover, to Washington's consternation, he made overtures toward Hugo Chavez's socialist Venezuela and sought to convert a crucial U.S. airbase entirely to civilian use.Joint action by Honduras' military and judiciary — in a manner the U.S. ambassador called "clearly illegal" and "totally illegitimate" at the time — forced Zelaya to pay for these sins in late June 2009. While the White House's reaction to the coup initially appeared confused, Washington soon recovered its footing. Even as huge protests raged, the Obama administration played a key role in ultimately compelling Honduras' people and the region's governments to acquiesce to the regime change as a fait accompli. Despite widespread repression by the post-coup de facto government, accounts of fraud, and the condemnation of many countries and international organizations (including the normally deferential Organization of American States), U.S.-endorsed elections in November 2009 received Washington's imprimatur. In her memoirs (the passage excised from the book's paperback edition with no explanation), then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton explained that the U.S. sought to "render the question of Zelaya moot and give the Honduran people a chance to choose their own future."It was in this context that Hernández catapulted into power. After Porfirio Lobo won the 2009 presidential race, Hernández became President of the National Congress as a member of Lobo's National Party — an institution historically closely linked to U.S. agribusiness. Lobo was Hernández's mentor and groomed his protege to succeed him. But while Hernández enjoyed success, the coup's consequences constituted disaster for ordinary Hondurans.Political violence and repression became routine. The murder rate, much of it due to cartel-related gang violence, soared — it was the world's highest for three years running. As the economic situation also deteriorated, and Lobo and his son allied with major narcotics syndicates, a huge surge of emigration swelled out of Honduras, with desperate citizens flooding northward. The total number of Hondurans apprehended at the U.S. border exploded — from less than 25,000 in 2009 to nearly 100,000 in 2014 — reaching 250,000 by 2020. In Washington's eyes, however, such concerns took a back seat to longstanding strategic needs: above all, Honduras' openness to foreign investment and its role as a base for American military power. And, as head of the National Congress, Hernandez was seen as particularly amenable to U.S. desires. "The State Department loved Hernandez," according to Dana Frank, an expert on Honduras at UC Santa Cruz. As Lobo's heir apparent, "he was young and could stay in power for a long time." Frank cites a 2010 cable from the U.S. embassy in Tegucigalpa asserting that "He has consistently supported U.S. interests."The depth of American support for Hernández became clear after his 2013 election to the presidency. Despite credible reports of fraud, his National Party's control over the counting process, and a wave of threats and sometimes lethal violence against opposition candidates and activists during the campaign, the State Department commended the election as "transparent, free, and fair." In 2015, a major corruption scandal centered on the misappropriation of funds from Honduras' Social Security Institute exploded, prompting unprecedented popular demonstrations against Hernandez and calling for his resignation, "There was a real sense that Hernández could fall," according to Alexander Main, a Latin America expert at the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research. Fortunately for Hernández, however, the U.S. swooped in, helping to defuse the unrest by prodding the OAS to organize a local anti-corruption body known as MACCIH. In that same year, according to Frank, Washington gave an "official green light" to a "completely criminal" power grab by Hernández whereby his hand-picked Supreme Court ruled that he was eligible to run for a second term in clear violation of Honduras' constitution. Washington's complacent reaction — "It is up to the Honduran people to determine their political future" — stood in remarkable contrast to 2009, when Zelaya's mere suggestion that the constitution might be amended to permit a second term served as the pretext for the coup that the U.S. subsequently legitimized. In Hernández's 2017 reelection bid, the fraud was so blatant and widespread that even the generally conservative OAS declared the incumbent's victory an example of "extreme statistical improbability" and called for new elections. The State Department, however, stood by Hernández, prodding Mexico and other OAS members to recognize the results, even as security forces suppressed massive and prolonged protests with live ammunition.Indeed, U.S. training and funding also proved crucial in the creation of the brutal special operations units Hernández's government used to terrorize opposition and environmental activists. Particularly significant in the military sphere was the role of U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), the American combatant command responsible for Latin America. Hernández was a particular favorite of John Kelly, SOUTHCOM's head during Obama's second term (and then White House chief of staff for Donald Trump), who, as Dana Frank noted, once referred to the convicted drug trafficker as a "great guy" and "good friend."Considering the U.S. relationship with Hernández, it is perhaps unsurprising that U.S. officials seemingly turned a blind eye to his deep involvement in narcotics trafficking. As both Hernández's recent trial — during which a witness claimed Hernandez had privately vowed to "stuff drugs up the noses of the gringos" — and that of his brother in 2019 showed, the drug trade's reach into the Honduran government was unmistakable, with numerous high-ranking security officials repeatedly implicated. CEPR's Main argues that it was "highly unlikely American officials were unaware" of Hernández's criminality. Indeed, as a document from his brother's trial revealed, the DEA began investigating the ex-president as early as 2013. As noted in Hernández's trial, just weeks after his inauguration in 2014, the agency reportedly obtained video evidence indicating his involvement with major drug traffickers. Even after his brother's 2019 conviction, when it became apparent that millions of dollars in drug money helped underwrite Hernández's political career, President Donald Trump publicly praised him for "working with the United States very closely" and for his help in "stopping drugs at a level that has never happened."Given all this, the U.S. media's failure to probe the influence of American policy on Hernández's career begins to look less like an anomalous oversight and more like a manifestation of structural dynamics that tend to reinforce the notion of American innocence. We can see the same logic apply to the frenzied media accounts detailing "caravans" of Central American migrants headed to the U.S. While mainstream news outlets rightly note the relationship between Hernández's presidency and increased migration from Honduras, they nevertheless fail to connect the two to the impact of U.S. policymaking. Without Washington's complicity and assistance, Hernandez might have spent 2014 to 2022 in prison, rather than the presidency. Unfortunately, it was the Honduran people who paid the price.
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The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq in December 2011, once seen as a triumph for the Obama administration, became a cautionary tale as the rise of ISIS prompted their return in 2014. This is one reason why U.S. troops have remained in Iraq, despite the successful dismantling of ISIS by the end of 2018. Since then, the degradation of ISIS has continued, and any benefits of keeping U.S. troops there as a stopgap against its resurgence are now overshadowed by the risks of exposure to the tit-for-tat game of face-saving exchanges of fire, with Iran-aligned militias. In Iraq, Washington cannot have it all, but with a touch of creativity and realistic expectations, it can still adequately safeguard its interests after U.S. troops leave, likely with reduced cost and better outcomes.The United States remains the most important enabler of Iraq's security forces and largest single donor of humanitarian assistance to Iraq. Congress has approved $1.25 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for Iraq — allocated at $250 million annually — from 2019 through 2023. Since 2014, the U.S. has delivered a total of $3.5 billion in humanitarian aid to Iraq. This aid extends well beyond self-serving interests to tangibly improve the lives of Iraqis, including rehabilitating nine water treatment plants in Basra, a stronghold of Iran-aligned militias, providing clean water to 640,000 people, and offering cash assistance to those displaced in Erbil due to the war with ISIS. The U.S. has invested tens of millions of dollars in other projects, too, from the maintenance of the Mosul Dam to the preservation of historic and cultural sites, to financing higher education. In many other countries, such investments would earn Washington's leaders great respect. Not so in Iraq, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken wore body armor during his visit to Baghdad last November. But this measure is aimed at protecting against a specific segment of Iraqi society, namely certain Iran-aligned militias and largely stems from the Trump administration's choice to assassinate Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was accompanied by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), outside Baghdad's airport in 2020. Other underlying issues that haunt the relationship include lingering resentment from the early years of the U.S. occupation (of which the younger generation has no recollection), real and perceived violations of Iraqi sovereignty by U.S. strikes, opportunistic blame-shifting by Iraqi politicians, and a significant gap between the expectations of ordinary Iraqis for U.S. commitment to their country and the actual level of U.S. investment. This dynamic has created, at times, an antagonistic attitude towards the United States, notwithstanding substantial aid. The dynamic is further complicated by the ongoing presence of U.S. troops in Iraq. While some Iraqis genuinely desire the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the arrangement serves the Iraqi government and certain quasi-integrated Iran-aligned militias quite well. The U.S. troop presence helps contain ISIS, ensures ongoing U.S. aid to Iraq, and provides Iran-aligned militias with a new self-serving adversary in place of ISIS, while they enrich themselves with corrupt business schemes. Another reason Iraq is willing to accommodate U.S. troops is the influence exerted by the U.S. Federal Reserve over its economy given Iraq's lack of a functional banking system. There is also a widespread concern that if Iraq were to expel U.S. troops, the U.S. might cease permitting dollar transactions, thereby isolating its economy. Although the Iraqi government will periodically express concerns over U.S. strikes violating Iraqi sovereignty, it stops short of expelling U.S. troops. However, with each attack on U.S. troops by Iran-aligned militias and the subsequent retaliatory strikes, the U.S. military mission in Iraq encounters challenges shaped by Iraqi and U.S. domestic politics, along with the potential for U.S. casualties. The more pertinent question for U.S. policymakers is how this arrangement serves U.S. interests? Washington lacks the troop numbers, capacity, political will, or plain foolishness to try to defeat the Iran-aligned militias, and retaliatory strikes only deter them temporarily. Washington is poorly placed to fully understand let alone influence Iraq's intricate politics and elite bargains. Thus, it's time to envision ways to protect U.S. interests in Iraq without a prolonged deployment of troops. Acknowledging some hard truths is the initial step. Iraq will always be a more vital interest to Iran than it is to the United States. Most Shi'a stakeholders, spanning the Iraqi political spectrum, would prefer to be independent of pressures exerted by either the U.S. or Iran; they think of themselves, after all, as Iraqis. If forced to choose, they would hitch their wagons to Iran rather than the United States — Iraq will always be on Iran's border and, for the foreseeable future, will depend on Iran to meet Iraq's energy needs. The presence of Iran-aligned militias in Iraq is a lasting reality. The primary U.S. objective in Iraq should be a politically stable Iraq, averting significant sectarian violence and territorial losses to groups like ISIS. As David Schenker, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recently argued, the latter can be achieved by leaving a modest U.S. presence in the Iraqi Kurdish region to aid counterterrorism efforts. What proponents and critics of withdrawal often get wrong is that they view Iraq as an adversary. It doesn't have to be if relations are normalized. Polls indicate that economic development and corruption are more significant concerns for the average Iraqi today than security. A considerable number of Iraqis desire a more assertive U.S. stance against corruption, increased engagement in development initiatives, and a more candid critique of their political system's shortcomings. Washington should leverage its strengths, such as establishing robust anti-money laundering frameworks, implementing technical projects, maintaining infrastructure, and promoting human development. These tangible forms of aid prove more impactful than other efforts dedicated to nurturing media and civil society, domains better suited for homegrown development. U.S. troops grant insights into the political and security developments of the country, but Washington should still be able to focus on areas where U.S. assistance is genuinely desired and needed after their withdrawal and potentially with less risk. U.S. Ambassador Alina Romanowski is venturing into Iraqi society as much as possible, considering the restrictions she faces. In March of last year, she visited Mosul for the first time — a city liberated in part by overwhelming U.S. airpower and largely undergoing reconstruction with help from the U.S. after the ISIS conflict — a trip long made impossible due to security restrictions. She has engaged with various political leaders, including former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Shi'a theologian Ammar Al-Hakim. However, her freedom of travel is limited compared to European counterparts, and she faces obstacles in meeting certain political and military figures for various reasons, not the least of which is that some are Specially Designated Nationals under U.S. sanctions. Removing U.S. troops could make it more politically tenable for U.S. diplomats to engage with Iraq as it is. The low U.S. troop presence is invisible to most Iraqis. This doesn't mean it can't be used as a political football in intramural Iraqi games. But it is no accident that in the wake of each groundswell for ending the U.S troop presence, no action is ever taken. The Iraqis, who recognize the fragility of their state building enterprise, are not eager to experiment with a landscape devoid of U.S. troops. Many Iraqis outside of the Iran-aligned militias also see the U.S. military presence as a counterweight to Iranian influence. Some also fear that if U.S. troops leave, the benefits they receive through U.S. management of their monetary system will also go away. It is not the U.S. military presence per se that is the problem from a restraint perspective. It is rather the fortress mentality of the official U.S. civilian presence. This imposes a heavy cost on the sustainability of diplomacy worldwide. The U.S. Embassy operations in Baghdad cost about $1 billion per year. If this were a Defense Department responsibility, this figure would merit a shoulder shrug. But in comparison, the State Department's budget is miniscule — a vivid illustration of U.S. priorities — and its outlays in Iraq crowd out diplomatic initiatives elsewhere. The U.S. can withdraw militarily from Iraq, while continuing to facilitate temporary training missions. Most importantly, the U.S. should engage more broadly with Iraqi society and leave behind the fortress mentality that has hobbled U.S. diplomacy in Iraq.
