Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. Situated in the delta of the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna (GBM) rivers, the country is exposed to a range of river and rainwater flood hazards due to climate variability, the timing, location, and extent of which depend on precipitation in the entire GBM basin. The Government of Bangladesh is fully committed to global climate-change advocacy and action, having already invested heavily in adaptation measures and policies. In recent decades, the government has invested more than US$10 billion to protect its population and assets in the floodplains. Given the uncertain magnitude and timing of the added risks from climate change, it is essential to identify the costs of climate proofing Bangladesh's critical infrastructure from intensified monsoon floods and cyclonic storm surges. Previously, few if any detailed studies have been developed on the costs of climate-proofing the country's infrastructure assets from inland monsoon floods and cyclones. Most analytical work to date has been confined to case studies, with relatively limited sets of locations, impacts, and adaptation measures. This study aims to fill that knowledge gap by providing detailed vulnerable population estimates and estimates of the incremental costs of asset adaptation out to the year 2050. It is part of a larger World Bank-supported study, entitled Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), funded by the governments of the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.
According to the main objectives of the study, the following conclusions could be presented: 1. The drastic decrease in arable land use in the transition to a free market economy continued until EU CAP was implemented in Estonia. The regional differences in land use changes in the 1990s were determined mainly by local bio-physical disadvantages such as soil quality. The higher decrease rate of arable land use in 1992– 2001 occurred in the regions with low soil fertility. A decrease in soil fertility by one quality point brings about a 2.5% increase in the proportion of abandoned land. The loss of subsidies at the beginning of the transition period highlighted the importance of pedo-climatic conditions in the formation of the profitability of agricultural production but the EU agricultural policy has again relieved the impact of bio-physical diversity on the competitiveness of agriculture. 2. Plant nutrient balances of Estonian arable soils were analysed in the long-term (1939–2003) with uniform methodology. This approach enabled the evaluation of some aspects of sustainability of agricultural land use and soil management through transition from the Soviet era to the open market economy. The application of both mineral and organic fertilisers started to increase in the 1960s and peaked in the 1980s. The increase in fertilisation was not followed proportionately by yield increase and this resulted in positive NPK balances of arable soils in the 1970–1980s, which has significantly improved the nutrient supply of arable soils. The quantities of plant nutrients N, K and P applied to the fields exceeded the amounts removed through crop harvesting by a factor of 2–2.3 (N), 1.9–2.2 (K) and 3–3.5 (P). The amounts of lactate soluble P and K increased by 1.1 and 0.7 mg kg-1 soil per year, respectively. 3. In the 1990s the use of fertilisers has decreased by significant factors: N by six; P by twenty; K by thirty and organic fertilisers by four. The total balances of K and P of arable soils have become negative as a consequence of inadequate fertilisation. Active balance, which enables the estimation of the degree to which formation of the yield occurs at the expense of soil resources, shows that at present the 58 59 largest deficiency is regarding P (68%) and K (57%) followed by N (34%). Thus, at present, crop production takes place largely at the expense of the soil nutrient reserves created by farmers in the 1970–1980s. The use of mineral fertilisers is less intensive in the regions with low soil quality. Decrease in soil fertility reduces the amount of mineral fertilisers used by 2.85 kg NPK per one soil quality point. As nutrient deficiency is highest for forage crops, the depletion of soil P and K may become critical, especially in organic systems where grasslands are dominant. Agri-environmental policy should more consider soil degradation due to the negative plant nutrient balances of arable soils in Estonia. 4. At present only 40–50% of the yield potential of cereals is realised in actual farming conditions. The high yield gap indicates the ineffective use of pedo-climatic resources and this causes agricultural self-sufficiency at the national level to deteriorate. Low realisation of yield potential of cereals is partly due to the insufficient use of fertilisers, as the actual yield level is limited by low input of plant nutrients to the soil. It must, therefore, be considered that the yield formation of cere - als is largely determined by the pedo-climatic conditions (50–60%), and that fertilisers are a lesser influence. In the case of oilseed rape the utilisation of the yield potential is 60–65%, which is induced by more intensive fertilisation compared to cereals. To narrow the yield gap in a profitable and environmentally friendly way, the field-specific fertiliser and other input optimisation is required. 5. A positive effect of the collapse of Estonian agriculture has been a reduction of the pressure on the environment whereas a negative effect to the several aspects of sustainable agriculture has emerged (i) in soil degradation which is due to insufficient investments into maintaining soil fertility, (ii) in ineffective use of pedo-climatic resources, (iii) in low profitability and competitiveness of the agri - culture sector, and (iv) in decreased national food supply. To achieve more sustainable agriculture the optimisation of agricultural land use and soil management should be based on the scientific knowl - edge and from this necessary precondition to develop a spatial agro-economic DSS. 6. The agronomic models for spring barley and potato, based on the regression analysis of numerous field experiments, were developed to assess the impact of soil and climate conditions on the effective - ness of fertilisers. The effectiveness of fertilisation depends, to a large extent on, besides soil properties, meteorological conditions. The variance of the average effectiveness, even of quite small rates, of mineral fertilisers (N60, P26 and K50) is very high. Higher efficiency is guaranteed in the case of balanced fertilisation but the optimum combination of nutrients depends on the relative prices of fertilisers and yield. The developed models enable the estimation of the pedo-climatic and economic risks in fertilisation optimisation. Improved agronomic models operating in spatial and temporal scale are forming a basis for knowledge-based DSS. 7. Data handling and presentation in the agricultural decision making process was for the first time in Estonia embedded to fieldspecific GIS and its application possibilities were analysed in the example of Kullamaa rural municipality. A field-specific database was compiled and agro-economic models were applied to provide information for decision makers. Economically effective N norm for barley is, in most of the study area, from 50 to 60 kg N ha-1 but on a quarter of arable land in the study area it is uneconomical to apply N to barley. Field-specific fertiliser optimisation compared to uniform fertiliser application can help farmers to avoid economic losses and simultaneously increase effectiveness of fertilisation and low yields. The simulated barley yield for the study area is, with the use of economically optimised amounts of NPK fertilisers, 2.6 Mg ha-1, which is by 1.1 Mg ha-1 higher compared to the actual cereal yield in the region. Composed thematic maps enable the clear presentation of spatial variability in the profitability of barley production from field to region scale. Farmers can use spatial profitability data with other criteria for crop rotation planning and for strategic decisions but presented DSS does not make decisions, but rather contributes knowledge that can be used in the decision making process. The ben - efit of this DSS is that information from different sources is collected, processed and integrated into a unified system which makes decision making more effective. This also makes existing soil information more easily available and self-explanatory for stakeholders. 8. Despite the fact that this study presents spatial agro-economic DSS on the example of just one rural municipality and a single crop, its importance is more extensive. Up-scaling the modelling results 60 61 from field-level also enables its application in regional planning and in macro-economic analysis. In this study the methodology for the functioning of the DSS was developed which is further applicable nationwide. There is an increasing demand for the planning of abandoned agricultural land in Estonia and a developed DSS can be expanded for the cultivation of bioenergetic crops or for afforestation of abandoned land. 9. Further improvement of DSS should focus on the development of agronomic models for various crops and economic models should be continuously adjusted according the changes in socio-economic conditions. The database of digital soil map should be definitely appended with quantitative parameters, which would provide prerequisites for its more extensive applications such as related production activities to environmental impact. The extensification of Estonian agriculture during the transition period has reduced the negative impact on the environment but at the same time this has caused a decline in the fertility of agricultural land, and this diminishes the competitiveness of Estonian agriculture. Analysed spatial DSS serves as a basis for effective resource management in modern agriculture and can be used as a tool in knowledge-based decision making processes to achieve economic, social and environmental targets of sustainable agriculture. The improvement of the current DSS and usage expansion from pilot areas to nationwide coverage of Estonia are essential for these purposes. This study creates possibilities not only for field-specific agro-economic analysis but also contributes a framework for further expansion of the capabilities of GIS-based DSS in various branches of the rural economy. ; Eesti põllumajandus ja sellega seonduv maakasutus on viimastel aastakümnetel agrotehnoloogia arengust, sotsiaalmajanduslikest ja poliitilistest teguritest tulenevalt läbi teinud mitmeid olulisi muutusi. Pärast Eesti taasiseseisvumist, 1990ndate alguses, toimus põllumajandustootmise drastiline langus – teraviljatoodang vähenes kümne aastaga 1,6, lihatoodang 2,8 ja piima tootmine 1,8 korda. Post-sotsialistlikest Ida- ja Kesk-Euroopa riikidest oli Eestis põllumajandustootmise langus kõige suurem. Aastatel 1990–2005 vähenes põllumajanduse osatähtsus sisemajanduse koguproduktist 12,7%lt 2,4%ni ning põllumajanduslik tööhõive 16,6%lt 3,9%ni. Sellised suuremahulised muutused on tõstatanud vajaduse põllumajandusliku maakasutuse ja tootmissisendite teaduspõhiseks optimeerimiseks. Erinevate maakasutusviiside rakendamisel tuleb arvestada, et see oleks jätkusuutlik nii ökoloogilises, sotsiaalses kui ka majanduslikus mõttes. Kuna ülemikuperioodil sotsialistlikust ajastust Euroopa Liitu Eesti põllumajanduse konkurentsivõime ja jätkusuutlikkus oluliselt kahanes, siis tõstatub küsimus, mil määral oleks võimalik asukohapõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi rakendamisega optimeerida maakasutust ja tootmissisendeid, suurendada põllukultuuride saagikust ning põllumajandustootmise tasuvust ilma tootmistegevuse negatiivsete mõjudeta ümbritsevale keskkonnale. Seega käesoleva töö eesmärgiks oli: 1. hinnata agroökoloogilistest aspektidest muutusi Eesti maakasutuses, muldade väetamises ja taimetoiteelementide bilanssides 2. uurida põllukultuuride saagipotentsiaali realiseerumist 3. analüüsida mineraalväetiste efektiivsust sõltuvalt mullastik-klimaatilistest tingimustest 4. uurida looduslike ja majanduslike riskifaktorite mõju taimekasvatuse tootmistulemustele ja leida lahendeid nende riskide leevendamiseks 5. koostada ajas ja ruumis muutuvad agromajanduslikud mudelid ning analüüsida nende rakendatavust väetamise ja maakasutuse optimeerimiseks odra näitel 6. arendada välja asukohapõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi ühtne raamistik, mis loob eeldused jätkusuutliku põllumajanduse eesmärkide saavutamiseks. Käesoleva uurimistöö käigus võeti kokku Eesti agraarteaduses senitehtu ning selle põhjal koostatud agromajanduslikud mudelid seostati ühtsesse geoinfosüsteemi. Agromajanduslike mudelite ja asukohapõhise nõuandesüsteemi väljatöötamiseks vajalikud lähteandmete allikaks olid arvukad dissertatsioonid, teaduspublikatsioonid ja -aruanded, riiklike sordivõrdluskatsete, agrometeopunktide, loomade jõudluskontrolli, loodus- ja keskkonnakaitse, Statistikaameti, Maa-ameti, Põllumajanduse Registrite ja Informatsiooni Ameti, põllumajanduslike testettevõtete raamatupidamise (FADN), agrokeemiateenistuse jt asutuste andmebaasid. Töös püstitaud eesmärkidest lähtuvalt saab teha järgmised järeldused: 1. Taasiseseisvumisjärgsel perioodil toimunud suur langus Eesti põllumajanduslikus maakasutuses jätkus kuni EL ühtse põllumajanduspoliitika rakendumiseni. Põllumajandusliku maakasutuse muutused olid 1990ndatel põhjustatud sotsiaal-majanduslikest reformidest, kuid regionaalsed erinevused seonduvad eelkõige piirkonna looduslike tingimustega. Suurem põllumaa kahanemine aastatel 1992–2001 toimus madala mullaviljakusega piirkondades. Valla haritava maa boniteedi kahanedes ühe hindepunkti võrra vähenes selle valla põllumajanduslik maakasutus 2,5% võrra. Seega, mullastik-klimaatilised tingimused osutusid Eesti üleminekuperioodil põllumajandustootmise tasuvuse kujundamisel määravaks, sest põllumajandustoetused olid ebapiisavad. EL põllumajanduspoliitika rakendamisega on aga looduslike erisuste mõjud maakasutusele ja põllumajanduse konkurentsivõimele leevendunud. 2. Ühtsel metoodikal põhinev haritava maa taimetoiteelementide bilansside analüüs (1939–2003) võimaldas hinnata põllumajandusliku maakasutuse jätkusuutlikkuse mõningaid aspekte üleminekul sotsialistikust ajastust vabaturumajandusele. Mineraal- ja orgaaniliste väetiste kasutamine Eestis hakkas oluliselt suurenema 1960ndatel ja saavutas kõrgeima taseme 1980ndatel aastatel. Väetiste suurem kasutamine ei taganud aga proportsionaalset saagikuse tõusu. Eesti taasiseseisvumiseelsel perioodil, mil toimus põllumajanduse arvestatav riiklik subsideerimine, suurenesid mulda viidavate taimetoiteelementide kogused keskmiselt 4,5 kg N, 2,8 kg K ja 0,6 kg P hektari kohta aastas. Samal ajal taimede poolt kasutatud ja saagiga eemaldatud toitainete kogused suurenesid aastas keskmiselt 1,3 kg N, 1 kg K ja 0,2 kg P hektari kohta. Seega mulda viidavad taimetoitainete kogused ületasid taimede poolt kasutatavaid koguseid lämmastiku osas 2–2,3 korda, kaaliumi puhul 1,9–2,2 korda 8 4 85 ning fosforit viidi mulda 3–3,5 korda rohkem. Märkimisväärsest positiivsest taimetoiteelementide bilansist tulenevalt suurenes sel perioodil muldade laktaatlahustuva fosfori- ja kaaliumisisaldus aastas vastavalt 1,1 ja 0,7 mg kg mulla kohta. 3. Eesti taasiseseisvumisjärgsel perioodil, 1990ndatel aastatel, vähenes lämmastikväetiste kasutamine kuni 6 korda, fosforväetiste kasu - tamine 20 korda, kaaliumväetiste kasutamine 30 korda ja orgaan - iliste väetiste kasutamine 4 korda. Tulenevalt ebapiisavast väetiste kasutusest muutus põllumuldade kaaliumi ja fosfori üldbilanss negatiivseks ning lämmastikku viidi väetistega mulda kogustes, mis eemaldati põllult saakidega. Taimetoiteelementide aktiivbilansist lähtuvalt on praegu kõige suurem defitsiit fosfori (68%) ja kaaliumi (57%) osas, kuid puudujääk on ka lämmastiku osas (34%). Tai - medele omastatava muldaviidud toiteelementide ja mullast saagiga eemaldatavate koguste vahe on negatiivne – -24,5 kg N, -6,5 kg P ja -26,2 kg K ha-1. Järelikult toimub praegune taimekasvatus - toodangu formeerumine peamiselt 1970–1980ndate suurtootmises loodud mullavarude arvelt. Mineraalväetiste kasutamine on väiksem madala mullaviljakusega piirkondades. Mullaviljakuse vähenedes ühe hindepunkti võrra kahaneb kasutatav mineraalväetiste NPK kogus 2,85 kg ha-1. Kõige suurem toiteelementide puudujääk esineb söödakultuuride osas. Fosfori ja kaaliumi mullarvarude ammen - dumine võib muutuda saagikust limiteerivaks faktoriks eelkõige suure rohumaade osatähtsusega mahepõllumajanduses. Põllumajan - dus- ja keskkonnapoliitika peaks aga edaspidi suuremat tähelepanu pöörama negatiivsest toiteelementide bilansist tuleneva muldade degradeerumise vältimisele. 4. Tänapäeval moodustab Eesti keskmine teravilja saagikus kõigest 40–50% reaalselt võimalikust saagipotentsiaalist. Suur tootmis - saagikuste ja saagipotentsiaali erinevus viitab ebaefektiivsele mul - lastik-klimaatiliste ressursside kasutusele. Madal saagipotentsiaali realiseerumine on seletatav ebapiisava väetiste kasutumisega, kuid samas tuleb arvestada, et saagikus tootmises sõltub 50-60% ulatuses mullastik-klimaatiliste tingimustest ning väetamise osa saagikuse kujunemisel on oluliselt väiksem. Rapsi mõnevõrra intensiivsem väetamine võrreldes teraviljadega on taganud parema saagipotentsiaali realiseerumise – riigi keskmine rapsi saagikus moodustab 60–65% sordivõrdluskatsete saagitasemest. 5. Põllumajanduse drastiline langus 1990ndatel aastatel vähendas negatiivset mõju ümbritsevale keskkonnale, kuid samaegselt on tõstatunud mitmed jätkusuutlikkust ohustavad probleemid: (a) põl - lumuldade degradeerumine tulenevalt ebapiisavatest sisenditest mul - laviljakuse säilitamiseks, (b) ebaefektiivne mullastik-klimaatiliste ressursside kasutus, (c) põllumajandussektori madal konkurentsivõime ja tasuvus, (d) kahanenud toiduga isevarustatus. Nende probleemide lahendamiseks ja oluliselt jätkusuutlikuma põllumajanduse saavuta - miseks peab põllumajandustootmise ning maakasutuse optimeeri - mine toimima teaduspõhiselt, millest tuleneb vajadus asukohapõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi väljaarendamiseks. 6. Arvukate põldkatsete tulemustel põhineva regressioonanalüüsi abil koostatud odra ja kartuli agronoomilised mudelid võimaldavad hinnata mullastiku ja ilma mõju väetiste efektiivsusele ja väetiste kasutamise agromajanduslikke riske. Väetiste efektiivsus sõltub lisaks mulla omadustele ja väetistarbele suuresti ka klimaatilistest tingimustest, isegi mõõdukate väetisannuste kasutamisel on nende efektiivsus väga varieeruv. Kõrgem väetamise efektiivsus ja tulukus saavutatakse tasakaalustatud väetisnormide korral, kuid majan - duslikult põhjendatud taimetoiteelementide vahekord väetises on sõltuv väetise ja saagi hinnasuhtest. Hetke väetise ja odra hindade juures peab näiteks lämmastikväetise efektiivsus olema üle 7,4 kg kg-1 N-1, et katta väetamisele tehtud kulutused. Ajas ja ruumis to - imivad mudelid võimaldavad hinnata looduslikke ja majanduslikke riske väetamise optimeerimises ning panevad aluse teaduspõhise nõuandesüsteemi väljaarendamiseks. 7. Teaduspõhine nõuandesüsteem ühildati antud töö raames esmakordselt põllupõhise geoinfosüsteemiga ja selle rakendamise võimalusi analüüsiti Kullamaa valla näitel. Koostati põllumassiivide andmebaas ja rakendati agromajanduslikke mudeleid pakkumaks täiendavat informatsiooni odrakasvatuse ja väetamise põllupõhiseks optimeerimiseks. Majanduslikult efektiivsed mineraalse lämmastiku normid odrale jäid enamikel uurimisala põldudel vahemikku 50–60 kg N ha-1, kuid samas neljandikul põllumaast ei ole lämmastikväe - tiste kasutamine kui ka odrakasvatus tasuv. Põllupõhine väetiste optimeerime võimaldab põllumajandustootjatel vältida rahalist kahju, suurendada väetamise efektiivsust ja saagikust. Majandus - likult efektiivsete väetisnormide kasutamine vastavalt muldade 86 87 väetustarbele tagaks uurimisalal odra keskmiseks arvutuslikuks saagikuseks 2,6 Mg ha-1, mis on 1,1 Mg ha-1 võrra suurem antud piirkonna tegelikust teravilja saagikusest viimasel kümnendil. Koostatud teemakaardid võimaldavad selgelt visualiseerida odrakasvatuse tasuvuse ruumilist varieeruvust nii üksikute põldude tasandil kui ka regionaalselt. Põllumajandustootjad saavad kasutada põllupõhiseid tasuvusarvutusi koos täiendavate kriteeriumitega näiteks külvikordade planeerimiseks ja strateegiliste valikute tegemiseks, kuid antud nõuandesüsteem ei tee otsuseid iseenesest, vaid pakub pigem teaduspõhist lisainformatsiooni otsustusprotsessi tõhustamiseks. Erinevatest allikatest pärineva andmete integreerimine ühtsesse süsteemi suurendab informatsiooni väärtust, kättesaadavust ja teadustulemuste rakendatavust saavutamaks jätkusuutliku põllumajanduse eesmärke. 8. Hoolimata sellest, et antud uurimistöö esitleb asukohapõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi võimalusi ainult ühe valla ja kultuuri näitel, on selle tähtsus oluliselt laiaulatuslikum. Põllu tasandilt modelleerimistulemuste üldistamine võimaldab arendatavat nõuandesüsteemi rakendada nii regionaalplaneerimises kui ka makromajanduslikus analüüsis. Käesolev töö käigus arendati välja põllupõhise agromajandusliku nõuandesüsteemi toimimise metoodika, mis on edaspidi rakendatav üle kogu Eesti. Praegu on tõstatunud vajadus leida rakendus põllumajanduslikust kasutusest välja langenud maadele. Antud nõuandesüsteemi ongi võimalik edasi arendada nii endiste põllumaade metsastamise kui ka neil bioenergeetiliste kultuuride kasvatamise seisukohalt, bioenergeetika arengukavade koostamiseks kui ka bioenergia tootmisprotsessi optimeerimiseks. 9. Esitletud nõuandesüsteemi arendamiseks tuleb teadusuuringutele tuginevalt pidevalt täiustada erinevate põllu- ja rohumaakultuuride agronoomilisi mudeleid ning vastavalt sotsiaalmajanduslikule olukorrale on vaja kohandada ka majanduslikke mudeleid. Digitaalse mullastikukaardi andmebaasi tuleb kindlasti täiendada kvantitatiivsete parameetritega, mis looks eeldused selle laialdasemaks kasutuseks nagu näiteks ilmastikukahjude hindamiseks põllumajanduses, kuid ka tootmisega seonduvate mõjude hindamiseks keskkonnale. Eesti põllumajandustootmise ekstensiivistumine üleminekuperioodil on vähendanud negatiivset mõju keskkonnale, kuid samas on põhjustanud muldade produktsioonivõime langust, mis omakorda vähendab Eesti põllumajanduse konkurentsivõimet. Järjepidev ekstensiivne maaviljelus ja ebaefektiivne ressursside kasutamine kahandab veelgi Eesti riigi põllumajandussaadustega isevarustatust. Arendatav asukohapõhine agromajanduslik nõuandesüsteem loob eeldused looduslike ja majanduslike ressursside efektiivseks ja optimaalseks kasutamiseks põllumajanduses ja on üheks vahendiks teaduspõhises otsustusprotsessis saavutamaks jätkusuutliku põllumajanduse majanduslikke, sotsiaalseid ja keskkonnakaitselisi eesmärke. Selleks on hädavajalik antud nõuandesüsteemi järjepidev arendamine ja laiendamine pilootalalt üle kogu Eesti. Antud uurimistöö ei loo võimalusi mitte ainult põllupõhiseks agromajanduslikuks analüüsiks ja tootmistegevuse planeerimiseks, vaid see võiks olla üheks osaks kogu Eesti loodusressursside kasutamist ja majandamist hõlmavast asukohapõhisest nõuandesüsteemist.
The Haiti Productive Land Use Systems (PLUS) Research Project continued and expanded the work of the Haiti Agroforestry project. It was intended to encourage Haitian farmers to plant trees as part of an overall plan by USAID to curb the devastating erosion which was washing the top soil into the sea. This project also investigated the effects on other crops as a result of tree planting. ; The Pinus genus is one of the most important sources of lumber in the world. It is represented in Haiti by P. occidentalis, a species that is endemic to the island of Hispaniola. The increasing demand for wood products, coupled with the deforestation of the pine forests in Haiti for agriculture, have seriously reduced the native populations of P. occidentalis. The ever increasing economic needs of peasants merit the testing of improved pine provenances that can offer greater value and be more efficiently managed in the current agroforestry systems of the high-elevation mountains. In 1989, 29 seed lots, representing 12 species of pine, were established in a species/provenance trial at Viard, near Kenscoff (alt. 1,500 m). A randomized complete block design was used with 3 replications. Survival, height and stem diameter measurements were recorded at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years after trial establishment. Merchantable volume was estimated at 7 years. Survival: Site survival, including all seed lots, was 80% after 5 years. Following a first year mortality of 10%, each additional year averaged an annual drop of 2.5%. The highest surviving species was P. taeda (90.3%), as compared to the lowest survivor, the P. occidentalis provenance from Cuba (62.7%). The only statistical difference detected at the species level was at the 3-year stage when P. taeda (91.9%) was shown to be superior to the Cuban P. occidentalis (67.0%). A large range of differences were observed among seed lots, though no statistical differences were detected by means comparison tests. The top three surviving seed lots were represented by P. taeda (94.7%, 93.3%, and 90.7%) compared to the lowest survival, 60.5%, exhibited by a P. caribaea hondurensis seed lot acquired from a commercial seed supplier. Average survival of the control (78.0%) was about the same as the overall site survival (79.6%) and approximately mid-ranked among all accessions tested. The control, a P. occidentalis seed lot from Séguin, Haiti, showed virtually no difference in survival from the other two seed lots originating in the Dominican Republic (both 76.7%). Height Growth: The overall mean height for the site, after 5 years, was 3.8 m. Growth rates during the initial 3 years averaged 0.5 m/yr overall, then jumped to 1.2 m/yr between 3 and 5 years. The P. occidentalis control grew an average 4.2 m (0.8 m/yr) - faster than the other two seed lots from the Dominican Republic (0.6 m/yr), though the means were not significantly different at the 95% probability level. P. oocarpa 15319 from Zimbabwe was the top performer, averaging 5.9 m over 5 years with an increment rate of 1.7 m/yr during the third and fourth year. It maintained its dominance throughout the measurement period. Three other seed lots exceeded an annual height growth rate of 1 m: P. patula 15275 and P. taeda 15169 from Zimbabwe and P. taeda 496 from SETROPA, a commercial seed company in Holland. These seed lots are superior to the local P. occidentalis in both growth rates and form. The slowest seed lot, P. caribaea caribaea 15/83 from Marbajitas, Cuba, averaged 1.8 m after 5 years. In general, the poorest performing seed lots were represented by P. caribaea caribaea, P. caribaea hondurensis, the P. occidentalis provenance from Cuba, and P. radiata. These species should be eliminated as candidates for agroforestry or reforestation at mid- to upper-elevation areas in Haiti. The P. taeda seed lots (496, 1003 and 15169) and P. elliottii 15441 exhibited a high degree of uniform growth, followed by P. oocarpa 15319. The most variable growth rates were exhibited by P. radiata, P. oocarpa 497, P. caribaea hondurensis 36/83, 19/85 and 17/85, P. elliottii 561. These seed lots are the same as those that showed poor adaptability. Diameter Growth: The overall site mean for DBH was 2.0 cm and 6.3 cm at 3 and 5 years, respectively. Differences were observed between height and stem diameter rankings among the pine seed lots. These differences reflect differences in taper form. The largest stem diameters (DBH) were achieved by P. taeda 496 (9.1 cm), P. oocarpa 15319 (8.8 cm) and P. caribaea bahamensis 3/80 (8.8 cm) after 5 years. This corresponds to a mean annual increment of 1.8 cm, as compared to 1.1 cm for the P. occidentalis control. The top seed lot for basal diameter, measured at a stump height of 0.1 m, was P. khasya 15212 (14.0 cm). The slowest diameter growths were exhibited by the seed lots that achieved the slowest height growth. Those species with seed lots below the mean annual growth rate of the control (1.1 cm/yr) included the following: the P. occidentalis provenance from Cuba (0.6 cm/yr), P. elliottii 651 (0.8 cm/yr), P. caribaea 9/76 and 15/83 (0.9 and 0.6 cm/yr, respectively), P. caribaea hondurensis 563 and 19/85 (0.7 and 1.0 cm/yr, respectively), P. occidentalis 38/77 and 66 (7293) (both 1.0 cm/yr), P. oocarpa 497 (0.8 cm/yr), and P. radiata 1008 (0.8 cm/yr). The 1.1 cm/yr rate of the 5-year old P. occidentalis in this trial should increase as the trees enter into the pole stage and selective thinning is conducted as recommended below. Merchantable Volume: The closely related species - P. patula, P. oocarpa, and P. tecunumanii - exhibited the highest yields of merchantable wood volume. The poorest performers at Kenscoff were P. caribaea caribaea, P. occidentalis, the P. occidentalis provenance from Cuba and P. elliottii. The difference between the top seed lot, P. patula 15275, and the P. occidentalis control is about a 3-fold difference. In addition to P. patula 15275, seven seed lots, representing 5 species, showed greater volume yield than the control, significant at the 95% probability level. Recommendations: (1) Eliminate the inferior seed lots from the Kenscoff trial. Selectively thin the promising seed lots, keeping the best trees, selected for form and size, for longer term study. Conduct selective thinning during the month of November and early December when the trial is most vulnerable to vandalism. Conduct the first phase of volume studies on the harvested trees for regression analyses. (2) Establish and distribute seed lots and provenances of known origin under similar growing conditions, particularly those with the greatest potential of making an economic impact among farmers: P. patula 15275, P. oocarpa 15319, P. tecunumanii 7/77, P. taeda 496 and P. caribaea bahamensis 3/80. Establish isolated stands for an in-country source of seed. Continue to distribute a balanced mix of P. occidentalis seed lots, harvested from trees selected for form and vigor from healthy populations in Haiti. Avoid collecting seed from the trial for extension purposes. The genetic quality of the seed harvested from a particular provenance or seed lot cannot be guaranteed because of the possibility of outcrossing. (3) Observe carefully any natural regeneration in the trials to confirm whether the imported pines can spread naturally. Observe any evidence of natural hybridization with P. occidentalis. (4) Study the social dimensions of the Kenscoff trial, especially encroachment problems and the use of the trial by neighboring peasants for cash cropping purposes. Develop suitable strategies to increase the security of the trial and establish control of land use. This has serious implications on the ability of government to address governance problems and encourage landowners to invest in alternative land use strategies that conserve natural resources. (5) Inform the Service des Ressources Forestière (MARNDR) of the uniqueness and importance of the Kenscoff trial and investigate the possibility for the SRF to collaborate with the Wynnes in managing and protecting the trial for future studies. The trial should be studied for long-term observations of pest and diseases, wood quality, natural regeneration, hybridization, tolerance to winds, form development and quantitative parameters of survival, height and stem diameters. ; Le genre Pinus est l'une des sources les plus importantes de bois dans le monde. Il est représenté en Haiti par P. occidentalis, une espèce endémique à l'île d'Hispaniola. La demande croissante pour les produits ligneux, ainsi que le défrichement des forêts de pins en Haiti pour l'agriculture, a séreusement réduit les populations natives de P. occidentalis. Les besoins économiques sans cesse croissants des paysans portent à tester des provenances améliorées de pins le systèmes agroforestiers en cours dans les montagnes de haute altitude. En 1989, 29 lots de semances, représentant 12 espèces de pins, ont été établis dans un essai espèce/provenance à Viard, près de Kenscoff (alt. 1.500 mètres). Le dessin expérimental utilisé était le bloc complètement au hasard avec 3 répétitions. Des données ont été recueillies sur la survivance, la hauteur et le diamètre de tige à 1, 2, et 5 ans après l'établissement de l'essai. Le volume marchand a été estimé à 7 ans. Survivance: Le taux de survivance, pour tous les lots de semences, était de 80% après 5 ans. Après une première année où le taux de mortalité était de 10%, une diminution moyenne de 2,5% chaque année, a été observée. L'espèce qui a donné le taux le plus élevé de survivance était le P. Taeda (90,3%), comparativement au Pinus sp. de Cuba, qui a accusé le taux le plus bas (62,7%). La seule différence statistique décelée au niveau de l'espèce était au stade de 3 ans quand le P. taeda (91,9%) s'est montré supérieur au Pinua sp. de Cuba (67,0%). De grandes différences ont été observées parmi les lot de semences, bien qu'aucune différence significative n'ait été détectée en analysant les lots séparément. Les trois meilleurs lots de semences au point de vue survivance, étaient représentés par P. taeda (94,7%, 93,3% et 90,7%), comparativement à ceux ayant le plus bas taux de survivance, 60,5%, accusé par un lot de P. hondurensis, obtenu d'un fournisseur commercial de semances au EUA. Le taux moyen de survivance du contrôle (78,0%) était à près le même que celui de tout le site 79,6%) et approximativement classé au milieu de tous les lots testés. Le contrôle, un P. occientalis en provenance de Seguin, Haiti, n'a virtuellement montré aucune différence de survivance avec les deux autres lots venant de la République Dominicaine (76,7% pour les duex). Croissance en hauteur: Le hauteur totale moyenne pour le site, après 5 ans, était de 3,8 m. Les taux de croissance pendant les 3 premières années furent de 0,5 m/an en moyenne pour tout le site, ensuite grimpèrent à 1,2 m/an entre 3 et 5 ans. Le contrôle P. occidentalis, grandit de 4,2 m (0,8 m/an) en moyenne - plus vite que les deux autres lots de la République Dominicaine (0,6 m/an), bien qu'il n'y ait pas de différence significative à 95% de probabilité. P. oocarpa 15319 de Zimbabwe était le plus performant, donnant en moyenne 5,9 m après 5 ans avec un taux d'ccroissement de 1,7 m/an pendant la troisième et la quatrième année. Il a maintenu sa domination pendant toute la période de mensurations. Trois autres lots de semences dépassa un taux de croissance annuel de 1 m; P. patula 15275 et P. taeda 15169 de Zimbabwe et P. taeda 469 de Setropa, une compagnie commerciale de semances établie en Hollande. Ces lots de semences sont supérieurs à ceux de l'espèce locale, P. occidentalis, tant pour les taux de croissance que pour la forme. Le lot de semences qui a manifesté la croissance la plus lente, P. Caribaea 15/83 de Marbajitas, Cuba, a donné une moyenne de 1,8 m après 5 années. En général, les lots de semences les moins performants furent représentés par P. Caribaea caribaea, P. Caribaea hondurensis, Pinus sp. de Cuba, et P. raidata. Ces espèces, généralement adaptées aux conditions de basse altitude, devraient être éliminées comme candidats pour l'agroforesterie ou le reboisement dans des zones de moyenne et de haute altitude en Haiti. Les lots de P. taeda (496, 1003 et 15169) et P. elliottii 15441 ont montré une plus grande uniformité de croissance, suivis de P. oocarpa 15319. Les taux de croissance les plus variables ont été ceux de P. radiata, P. oocarpa 497, P. caribaea hondurensis 36/83, 19/85 et 17/85, P. elliottii 561. Ces lots de semences sont les mêmes qui se sont montrés les moins adaptés. Croissance en diamètre: La moyenne de DHP pour tout le site était de 2,0 cm et 6,3 cm à3 et 5 ans, respectivement. Des différences de classement ont été observées pour la hauteur et le diamètre de tige parmi les lot de semences de pin. Elles reflètent des différences dans la forme de défilement. Les plus grands diamètres ont été atteints par P. taeda 496 (9,1 cm), P. oocarpa 15319 (8,8 cm) et P. caribaea bahamensis 3/80 (8,8 cm) après 5 ans. Ceci correspond à un accroissement annuel moyen de 1,8 cm, comparé à 1,1 cm pour le contrôle P. occidentalis. Le lot le plus performant pour le diamètre basal, mesuré à hauteur de souche de 0,1 m, était le P. khasya 15212 (14,0 cm). Les chiffres de croissance en diamètre les plus bas ont été accusés par les lots de semences qui ont montré la croissance en hauteur la plus lente. Ces espèces avec les lots de semences au-dessous du taux de croissance annuelle moyenne du contrôle (1,1 cm/an) comprennent: le Pinus sp. en provenance de Cuba (0,6 cm/an), P. elliottii 561 (0,8 cm/an), P. caribaea 9/76 et 15/83 (0,9 et 0,6 cm/an, respectivement), P. caribaea hondurensis 563 et 19/85 (0,7 et 1,0 cm/an, respectivement), P. occidentalis 38/77 et 66 (7293) (les deux 1,0 cm/an), P. oocarpa 497 (0,8 cm/an), et P. radiata 1008 (0,8 cm/an). Le taux de 1,1 cm/an du P. occidentalis âgé de 5 ans dans cet essai, devrait augmenter à mesure que les arbres entrent dans le stade de perchis et que l'éclairie sélective est pratiquée, comme recommandée ci-dessous. Volume marchand: Les espèces étroitement liées - P. patula, P. oocarpa, et P. tecunumanii - ont accusé les rendements les plus élevés de volume en bois marchand. Les moins performantes à Kenscoff furent P. caribaea caribaea, P. occidentalis, Pinus sp. de Cuba et P. elliottii. La différence entre le lot le plus performant, P. patula 15275, et le contrôle P. occidentalis, est d'environ 3 fois plus élevée. En plus du P. patula 15275, sept lots de semences, représentant 5 espèces, montrèrent un rendement en volume plus élevé que le contrôle, significatif à 95% de niveau de probabilité. Recommandations: (1) Eliminer les lots de semences inférieurs de l'essai de Kenscoff. Eclaircir sélectivement les lots prometteurs, en gardant les meilleurs arbres, sélectionnés pour leur forme et leur dimension, pour une étude à plus long terme. Pratiquer une éclaircie sélective pendant le mois de novembre et au début de décembre quand l'essai est le plus susceptible au vandalisme. Mener la première phase d'études de volume sur les arbres récoltés pour des analyses de régression. Eviter de collecter des semences de l'essai pour propagation, excepté pour la recherche. (2) Etablir et distribuer des lots de semences et provenances d'origine connue sous des conditions de croissance similaires, particulièrement ceux pouvant potentiellement avoir le plus d'impact économique sur les planteurs: P. patula 15275, P. oocarpa 15319, P. tecunumanii 7/77, P. taeda 496 et P. caribaea bahamensis 3/80. Etablir des peuplements isolés comme source de semences pour tout le pays. Continuer à distribuer un mélange balancé de lots de semences de P. occidentalis, récoltés d'arbres sélectionnés pour leur forme et leur vigueur, à partir de populations saines en Haiti. (3) Observer soigneusement toute régénération naturelle dans les essais pour confirmer si les pins importés peuvent se répandre naturellement. Observer tout signe d'hybridation naturelle avec le P. occidentalis. (4) Etudier les dimensions sociales de l'essai de Kenscoff, spécialement les problèmes d'incursions et l'utilisation de l'essai par les paysans avoisinants comme source de revenus. Développer des stratégies viables pour augmenter la sécurité de l'essai et établir un contrôle sur l'utilisation de la terre. Ceci a de sérieuses implications concernant la capacité du gouvernement à alternatives d'utilisation de la terre, qui conservent les ressources naturelles. (5) Informer le Service des Ressources Forestières (SRF du MARNDR) de l'aspect unique et de l'importance de l'essai de Kenscoff, et investiguer la possibilité pour le SRF de collaborer avec les Wynne dans la gestion et la protection de l'essai pour des études futures. L'essai devrait être étudié pour des observations à long terme sur les pestes et maladies, qualité de bois, régénération naturelle, hybridation naturelle, tolérance aux vents, développement de forme et paramètres quantitatifs de survivance, hauteur et diamètres de tige.
Die Nachfrage nach Holz wird im Zeitraum der nächsten 15 Jahre bis 2030 sowohl in der EU als auch global zunehmen. Bedarfsabschätzungen zeigen Nachfrageüberhänge in der EU von jährlich 300 Mio. m³, eine Prognose spricht sogar von Holzfehlmengen von 430 Mio. m³. Der Anstieg der Weltbevölkerung bei wachsender Wirtschaft wird den Holzbedarf erhöhen, auch wenn derzeit weltweit in etwa ein Gleichgewicht zwischen Angebot und Nachfrage besteht. Die Nachfrage nach Holz unterliegt vielen Treibern. Die Langfrist-Prognosen bis zum Jahre 2030 sagen vor allem bei der energetischen Holznutzung eine permanente, über den Verbrauch von Holz zur stofflichen Nutzung liegende, hohe Nachfragesteigerung voraus. Der Trend der Bioökonomie mit der sukzessiven Reduktion des Anteils der fossilen Energieträger beim Primärenergieverbrauch zur Reduktion der Emissionen von Treibhausgasen wurde durch das Paris-Abkommen, das 2015 durch die internationale Gemeinschaft mit dem Ziel des Klimaschutzes verabschiedet wurde, noch verstärkt. Auch die Tendenz zur dezentralen Energieversorgung vor allem in den Kommunen, die besonders die Nachfrage nach Energieholz und schwachen Sortimenten wachsen lässt, das Bestreben zur Verringerung von nationalen Abhängigkeiten zu Russland als Lieferant bei Erdgas und Erdöl haben auf eine steigende zukünftige Nachfrage ebenso einen bedeutenden Einfluss wie die Substitution des Rohstoffes Erdöl durch Holz bei der Herstellung von Chemikalien und Treibstoffen. In den Wäldern der Mitgliedstaaten sind nach Einschätzung der EU größere stehende Holzvorräte vorhanden, die mobilisiert werden müssten, um das Ziel der EU, 20 % der Primärenergie aus erneuerbaren Energien bis zum Jahre 2020, zu erreichen. Die Produktion und die Nutzung von Holz im Rahmen einer nachhaltigen Forstwirtschaft hat über den gesamten Lebenszyklus eine ausgeglichene CO2 Bilanz. Durch die erhöhte Nutzung von Holz im Energiemix vermindert sich die CO2 Belastung der Atmosphäre. Wald-Inventuren, wie z.B. die in Deutschland vorliegenden Ergebnisse der 3. Bundeswaldinventur, bestätigen die Einschätzung der EU über die bestehenden Ressourcen. Die Verwendbarkeit dieser Ressourcen wird allerdings in zunehmendem Maße durch die Herausnahme von Wäldern aus der Produktion aus ökologischen oder sozioökonomischen Gründen beeinträchtigt. Unternehmer, deren Geschäftsmodell die Produktion von Holz auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen ist, evaluieren mögliche Standorte zur Produktion von Holz im Kurzumtrieb nach der politisch-rechtlichen Sicherheit, nach der Verfügbarkeit von Ressourcen und den Faktorpreisen. Günstige Voraussetzungen für die Anlage von Baumplantagen für die Produktion von Holz bestehen im Baltikum. In den drei Staaten sind die wesentlichen Parameter für den Holzanbau in Plantagen auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen gegeben: Gesichertes Rechtssystem mit dem Schutz des Eigentums, barrierefreier Zugang zu den Märkten innerhalb der EU, keine Währungsrisiken, günstige klimatischen Bedingungen mit ausreichend Niederschlag und freie Ressourcen bei Arbeit und Boden. Die EU-rechtliche Klassifizierung einer KUP als landwirtschaftliche Tätigkeit auf landwirtschaftlicher Fläche und als landwirtschaftliche Dauerkultur eröffnet die grundsätzliche Möglichkeit der Teilnahme der Kurzumtriebswirtschaft an den EU-Förderprogrammen der Direktförderung, der 1. Säule, und der Förderung der Entwicklung des ländlichen Raumes, der 2. Säule. KUP ist in das Ziele-Cluster Europa 2020/GAP 2020 der EU einbezogen. Für die KUP-Bauern sind auf nationaler Ebene die in das jeweilige Recht der baltischen Staaten transformierten EU Bestimmungen und die jeweils dazu gehörende Verwaltungsauffassung maßgebend. Der Umweltleistung der Dauerkultur "Niederwald im Kurzumtrieb" wurde in den rechtlichen Bestimmungen der EU grundsätzlich Rechnung getragen. KUP sind von der Greening-Verpflichtung befreit. Es überrascht allerdings, dass KUP als "gleichwertige Methode zur Flächennutzung im Umweltinteresse" bei der Anrechnung auf eine ökologischen Vorrangfläche nur mit Faktor 0,3, hingegen die Agroforstsysteme mit Faktor 1,0 Berücksichtigung fanden. Der KUP-Landwirt kann nur, wenn er Abweichungen beim Verwaltungshandeln zu den übergeordneten nationalen Gesetzen oder EU-Regeln zu seinem Nachteil erkennt, sein Recht im Widerspruchsverfahren suchen. Sowohl bei der Direktförderung wie auch bei der Strukturförderung wurden in allen drei baltischen Staaten Verwaltungsauffassungen identifiziert, die KUP im Vergleich zur Förderung der herkömmlichen Landwirtschaft mit annuellen Feldfrüchten benachteiligen oder weitgehend von der Förderung ausschließen. Im Bereich der Direktförderung gilt dies im besonderen Maße bei meliorierten Flächen. Die Detailanalyse zeigt, dass die Etablierung von KUP auf solchen Böden entweder, wie in Lettland, zur Versagung der Direktförderung führt, oder, wie in Estland und Litauen mit Auflagen verbunden ist, die die Bereitschaft der Landwirte für die Anlage einer KUP stark hemmen. Bedeutend ist dies vor dem Hintergrund, dass in Estland rund 54 %., in Lettland rund 62 % und in Litauen rund 78 % der landwirtschaftlich nutzbaren Flächen mit Drainagen versehen sind. Im Bereich der Förderung nach der 2. Säule, insbesondere die Gewährung von Zuschüssen bei Auf- und Ausbau der Hofstelle sowie beim Ankauf von Maschinen und anderen Ausrüstungen, ist der KUP-Landwirt von der Förderung ausgeschlossen. Die Festlegung der Rotationszeiten verursacht ein weiteres Hemmnis. Die Produktion von Holz in KUP wird dadurch in den baltischen Staaten in Richtung bestimmter Holzsortimente, nämlich hauptsächlich Energieholz und schwache Sortimente, gelenkt. Die Bestimmungen legen in der Regel fünf Jahre als Umtriebszeit fest. Versuche, diese restriktiven Vorgaben aufzuweichen, waren bisher erfolglos. Zusätzliche Lenkungsimpulse in Richtung bestimmter anderer, stärkerer Holzsortimente gehen auch durch die Förderung der Aufforstung im Rahmen der Strukturförderung aus. Auf den baltischen Faktormärkten stehen für die Holzproduktion auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen im Kurzumtrieb Boden und Arbeitskräfte zu günstigen Preisen in ausreichendem Umfang zur Verfügung. Restriktionen beim Bodenerwerb in den ab dem Jahre 2014 geltenden nationalstaatlichen Bodenverkehrsrechtssystemen können für die Neu-Etablierung eines KUP-Betriebes hinderlich sein. Zu den realen Holzerträgen liegen für die baltischen Staaten noch keine Ernteergebnisse aus KUP auf größeren Flächen vor. Abschätzungen der Erntemengen waren deshalb anhand von Vergleichszahlen für KUP in klimatisch ähnlichen Regionen, anhand von Wuchsleistungen gängiger Klone und unter Einbeziehungen von Messungen auf Versuchsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen vorzunehmen. Die so taxierten realen Holzerträge liegen bei einem Durchschnitt von 10,00 tatro ha-1 a-1. Das Niveau der Marktpreise für das im Kurzumtrieb produzierte Hauptsortiment Hackschnitzel deutet auf einen aufnahmebereiten Markt mit für die Wirtschaftlichkeit der Produktion ausreichenden Preisen hin. Vergleiche mit längeren Zeitreihen, bei denen aktuelle Preisschwankungen geglättet sind, für Estland zwischen 2003 bis 2013, für Lettland zwischen 2009 bis 2014 und für Litauen zwischen 2008 bis 2014, bestätigen diese Aussage. Durch die Ermittlung der Annuitäten wird die Wirtschaftlichkeit einer KUP am Beispiel eines Betriebes in Lettland untersucht. Auf der Aufwandsseite konnten tatsächliche Kosten-Größen für eine Fläche von 100 ha in die Berechnungen einbezogen werden. Damit steht für eine Wirtschaftlichkeitsberechnung eine Datenbasis zu den Kosten zur Verfügung, die nicht ausschließlich für kleine Versuchsflächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen erhoben wurde. Auf der Marktseite kann auf aktuelle Marktpreise für Hackschnitzel, bestätigt durch langfristige Zeitreihen, zurückgegriffen werden. In dieser, mit realen Zahlen fundierten Berechnung sind die Zahlungsströme dargestellt. Nicht in diese Kalkulation wurden wegen der Unsicherheit eines positiven Bescheides durch den LAD die Fördergelder einbezogen. Die Berechnungen zeigen positive Annuitäten, dem Indikator für den profitablen Betrieb einer KUP. Eine Sensitivitätsanalyse mit Veränderungen aller Kosten- und Ertragsfaktoren um jeweils 10 % bestätigt die Ertragsstabilität. Schließlich wird durch den Vergleich des Ergebnisses der Annuitätenberechnung mit einem landwirtschaftlichen Betrieb, der als Hauptkultur Weizen produziert, aufgezeigt, dass die Produktion von Holz auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen mittels KUP die wirtschaftlich sinnvollere Alternative ist. Als agrarpolitischer Ausblick für die EU lässt sich aus der Gesamtanalyse resümieren, dass eine "Arbeitsteilung", Feldfrüchte in den Mitgliedsländern zu erzeugen, in denen die Produktionsbedingungen aufgrund von klimatischen Aspekten und Standortparametern optimal sind, nicht gefördert, sondern eher gebremst wird. Wenn die Betriebsergebnisse aus der Produktion von Holz in KUP weiter zunehmen, wird der Markt durch die Aussicht auf höhere monetäre Erträge die Strukturanpassung, auch gegen die restriktive nationale Auslegung der EU-Förderrichtlinien in Estland, Lettland und Litauen bewirken.:Danksagung I Inhaltsverzeichnis III Abbildungsverzeichnis VII Tabellenverzeichnis VIII Abkürzungsverzeichnis XII 1 Einleitung 1 1.1 Diskrepanz bei der Abschätzung der zukünftigen Holznachfrage und der tatsächlichen Entwicklung 1 1.2 Tendenzen bei der Nachfrage und dem Angebot von Holz in der Europäischen Union 4 1.3 Positive Voraussetzungen für die Produktion von Holz in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 7 2 Zielstellung der Arbeit 11 3 Vorgehensweise 14 4 Stand des Wissens 17 4.1 Europarechtliche Bestimmungen für die Holzproduktion auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen 17 4.1.1 Begriffsabgrenzungen 18 4.1.1.1 Abgrenzungen des Begriffs der Kurzumtriebsplantage von Wald 18 4.1.1.2 Waldbegriff der Europäischen Union 19 4.1.2 Kurzumtriebswirtschaft als landwirtschaftliche Tätigkeit 19 4.1.2.1 Erlaubte Baumarten für den Kurzumtrieb in der Europäischen Union 20 4.1.2.2 Agroforstsysteme im Vergleich zu Kurzumtriebsplantagen in der Terminologie der Europäischen Union 20 4.1.3 Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik 2020 21 4.1.3.1 Organe der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik auf Ebene der Europäischen Union und der Verwaltungsunterbau in den Mitgliedstaaten 21 4.1.3.2 Ziele der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020 im Rahmen des Zielsystems Europa 2020 24 4.1.3.3 Instrumentarien der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020 26 4.1.3.4 Finanzmittel zur Agrarstrukturförderung im Rahmen der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020 36 4.2 Kurzumtriebsplantagen auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 37 4.2.1 Derzeitiger Bestand und Betrieb von Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 37 4.2.2 Entwicklung der Plantagenflächen zur Produktion von Holz im Kurzumtrieb in Estland, Lettland und Litauen bis 2014 40 4.2.2.1 Estland 40 4.2.2.2 Lettland 41 4.2.2.3 Litauen 41 5 Analyse der rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen zur Holzproduktion in Kurzumtriebsplantagen 43 5.1 Begriffs-Präzisierungen als Ausdruck der nationalen Verständnisse der Vorschriften der Europäischen Union 43 5.1.1 Waldbegriff in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 43 5.1.1.1 Waldbegriff in Estland 43 5.1.1.2 Waldbegriff in Lettland mit der Besonderheit der Forstplantage nach dem lettischen Waldgesetz 44 5.1.1.3 Waldbegriff in Litauen 50 5.1.2 Umtriebszeiten bei Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 51 5.1.3 Zugelassene Baumarten für Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 52 5.1.4 Unbestimmte Rechtsbegriffe für Nachhaltigkeit in den Waldgesetzen von Estland, Lettland und Litauen 53 5.2 Umsetzung der Förderbestimmungen nach der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020 in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 55 5.2.1 Direktförderung (Säule 1) in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 56 5.2.1.1 Ausgestaltungen der Voraussetzungen für die Direktförderung 57 5.2.1.2 Instrumentarien der Direktförderung 60 5.2.2 Strukturförderung (Säule 2) in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 69 6 Wirtschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen für die Produktion von Holz in Kurzumtriebsplantagen auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 74 6.1 Parameter zur Definition der Angebotsseite: Verfügbare Produktionsfaktoren 74 6.1.1 Verfügbarkeit der Ressource Arbeit 74 6.1.2 Verfügbarkeit der Ressource Boden 77 6.1.2.1 Eignung von Flächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen zur Produktion von Holz in Kurzumtriebsplantagen 77 6.1.2.2 Möglichkeit des Bodenerwerbs 79 6.1.2.3 Maßnahmen zur Erhöhung des Flächenangebotes auf den Bodenmärkten in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 82 6.1.2.4 Entwicklung der Preise für landwirtschaftliche Flächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 84 6.1.3 Verfügbarkeit der Ressource Kapital 85 6.1.3.1 Infrastruktur als maßgebliche Größe des volkswirtschaftlichen Sozialkapitals 85 6.1.3.2 Betriebliches Privatkapital als Investitionsvoraussetzung 86 6.2 Marktsegment für in Kurzumtriebsplantagen erzeugtem Holz in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 87 6.2.1 Potenzialabschätzungen für die Holzmärkte in Estland, Lettland, Litauen und für die Europäische Union 87 6.2.2 Nachfrage nach Holz in der Zielplanung für die Energiebedarfsdeckung in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 91 6.2.2.1 Planerische Ansätze zur Energieversorgung in Estland 94 6.2.2.2 Planerische Ansätze zur Energieversorgung in Lettland 95 6.2.2.3 Planerische Ansätze zur Energieversorgung in Litauen 96 6.3 Business Case für ein reales Unternehmen in Lettland 97 6.3.1 Naturale und monetäre Erträge von Weidenplantagen 98 6.3.1.1 Mengenerträge in Kurzumtriebsplantagen 99 6.3.1.2 Preisniveaus auf dem Markt für Hackschnitzel in Lettland 104 6.3.1.3 Preisniveauvergleich für Litauen und Estland 107 6.3.2 Kosten der Bewirtschaftung von Kurzumtriebsplantagen 108 6.3.3 Ermittlung der Annuitäten als Entscheidungsgrundlage 113 6.3.4 Betrachtung von Veränderungen von Parametern anhand einer Sensitivitätsanalyse 118 6.3.5 Betrachtung des Ergebnisses der Business Case-Berechnung 120 7 Diskussion der Ergebnisse 126 7.1 Hypothese: Das Regelwerk und die darin enthaltenen Fördermaßnahmen der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020/Europa 2020 begünstigen die Produktion von Holz in Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen. 126 7.2 Hypothese: Die nationalen Ausgestaltungen der Bestimmungen der EU favorisieren nicht die Anlage und Nutzung von Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 135 7.3 Hypothese: Die Produktionsfaktoren Arbeit, Boden und Kapital stehen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen in ausreichendem Maße zur Verfügung. 143 7.4 Hypothese: Die Märkte für in Kurzumtriebsplantagen erzeugtem Holz sind zu Preisen aufnahmefähig, die einen rentablen Betrieb von Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen erlauben. 145 7.5 Hypothese: Die Holzproduktion auf Kurzumtriebsplantagen führt zu höheren monetären Erträgen als der Anbau von annuellen Feldfrüchten in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 149 8 Zusammenfassung 152 9 Abstract 157 10 Literaturverzeichnis 161 10.1 Quellennachweis nach Autoren 161 10.2 Rechtsquellen 194 10.2.1 Völkerrechtliche Verträge 194 10.2.2 Rechtsquellen der Europäischen Union 194 10.2.2.1 Grundlagen für die Europäische Union 194 10.2.2.2 Verordnungen der Europäischen Union in chronologisch-numerischer Reihenfolge 194 10.2.2.3 Richtlinien der Europäischen Union in chronologisch-numerischer Reihenfolge 197 10.2.2.4 Delegierte Verordnungen der Europäischen Union in chronologisch-numerischer Reihenfolge und Entscheidungen 197 10.2.3 Rechtsquellen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 199 10.2.4 Rechtsquellen der Republik Estland 199 10.2.5 Rechtsquellen der Republik Lettland 200 10.2.6 Rechtsquellen der Republik Litauen 201 ; The demand for timber will rise over the prognosis timeframe of the next 15 years until 2030. For Europe, demand forecast shows a deficit of supply of 300 mio. m³ per year; one study even states the amount at 430 mio. m³. The growth of the world population in combination with a growing economy will further increase the demand for wood, despite the current situation of equilibrium between demand and supply as shown by figures regarding the actual wood production. The demand is driven by many factors. Long-term prognoses to the year 2030 predict a permanent rise in demand for energetic use, which is above the rise of wood for material use. The bio economic trend, including the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the gradual reduction of fossil energy sources as a primary energy supply, has been reinforced through the Paris Agreement, adopted by the international community in 2015 with the aim of climate protection. Also other factors will strengthen future demand: the tendency towards decentralised energy production, especially within municipalities, which will particularly grow the demand for fuel wood and weak assortments; the tendency towards reducing dependence on Russia as a supplier of natural gas and oil; and the substitution of fossil energy sources for wood in the production of chemicals and fuel. The EU sees in the forests of its member states a large standing wood supply, which would need to be activated to reach the goal of substituting 20% of primary energy with renewable energy sources by 2020. Wood production and use has a neutral CO2 footprint throughout its lifecycle; if produced sustainably, it only emits as much CO2 as it had previously bound within itself through photosynthesis. Increasing the use of timber in the energy mix reduces the pollution of the atmosphere with CO2 Forest-inventories like the recently published 3rd German National Forest Inventory underline this assumption of the EU regarding the reserves. However, not all of the stock in the forests can be activated, as some forests are taken out of production due to ecological and socio-economic reasons. Entrepreneurs whose business model is determined by the production of wood on agricultural land evaluate possible locations for the production of wood in short rotation according the political and legal security, the availability of resources and the factor prices. The Baltic States offer favorable preconditions. All three states fulfill the major parameters for wood production on coppices on agricultural land: protection of the liberal order; secured legal system with the protection of property; barrier-free access to the markets within the EU; no currency risks; favorable climatic conditions with sufficient precipitation; and large amounts of resources in land and labor. The classification as agricultural activity on agricultural land and as an agricultural permanent crop makes SRC principally entitled to EU funding programs through direct support, the so-called 1st pillar, as well as though the funding of the agricultural structures, the so-called 2nd pillar. SRC are included in the goal cluster of Europe2020/CAP2020. For the SRC farmers on a national level, the applicable legislation derived from the EU-regulations and their administrative interpretations are crucial. The environmental performance of SRC was especially recognised, while excluding them from the Greening-Commitment. Surprisingly however, SRC is recognised with the factor 0.3 as a substitute for the compulsory creation of ecological compensation conservation areas, whereas argoforest systems with a lower soil regeneration period are recognised with the factor 1. The SRC agriculturist can request an appeal proceeding only if he feels there are discrepancies between the administrative acting and the superior national laws or EU rules. In comparison to the funding of traditional agriculture with annual crops, interpretations were identified in both pillars which discriminate against SRC by diminishing it or excluding it all together. In the direct funding sector this is especially applicable to meliorated land. A detailed analysis has shown that the establishment of SRC on such land leads to the complete denial of direct funding, like in Latvia, or subjection to strict conditions which hinder any SRC, like in Estonia and Lithuania. This is significant because in Estonia roughly 54%, in Latvia roughly 62% and in Lithuania roughly 78% of agricultural land has a drainage system. Within the 2nd pillar, the SRC farmer is excluded from support, especially in granting subsidies for building construction, acquisition of machines and other equipment. The definition of the rotation periods is causing another hurdle. The production of wood on SRC is steered towards certain market segments, mainly fuel wood and weak assortments, through the predefined rotation periods within the different Baltic States. These are generally set to five years. Efforts to soften this restrictive rule have so far been unsuccessful. Further stimulus guiding towards certain segments comes from the subsidies provided for reforestation by the structural funding. In the Baltic factor market, land and labour for wood production in SRC on agricultural land are available for reasonable prices and in sufficient quantities.Restrictions in purchasing land could arise from the "land-mobilisation" legal systems valid from 2014 for the new establishment of SRC. There are no authoritative figures available for the harvest yields on large scale SRC in the Baltic States. Estimations of the crop volume had to be made in comparison to regions with similar climatic conditions and the growth performance of common clones, taking into account measures from test facilities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Assessed like this, the average wood production lies at 10.00 tovd ha-1 a-1. The price levels for the wood sales in the market segment of SRC wood is robust for the internal market, as is the export demand. This is confirmed by a time-series analysis in which price fluctuations are evened out, for Estonia between 2003 and 2013, for Latvia between 2009 and 2014 and for Lithuania between 2008 and 2014. By calculating the annuity, the profitability of a SRC is evaluated using the example of an enterprise in Latvia. On the expenses side, real cost-figures for an area of 100ha could be used for the calculation, thus providing a data base which does not derive from only small experimental areas in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. On the market side, actual current market prices, backed up with long-term data series regarding the price level of wood chips, could be resorted to. In this calculation based on real figures, the cash-flow was illustrated. Money from the 1st and 2nd pillar was not added into the calculation due to the uncertainty of a positive decision by the LAD. The calculations show a positive result, indicating that a profitable management of a KUP is possible. A sensitivity analysis in which all cost and dendromass production figures where changed by 10% shows the stability of the calculation. Finally, a comparison of the annuity results to the income of a large company which produces annual field crops in crop rotation shows that the production of wood on agricultural land with SRC is the more economically sound alternative. Considering the agricultural outlook for the EU, one can draw from the overall analysis that a "division of labor" in which field crops are produced in the member states in which the climate aspects and the soil parameters are optimal is not supported, but rather inhibited. When the profits from the production of wood on agricultural land rise further, the market will, driven by the higher return of investment, cause that structural adjustment, despite EU subsidies.:Danksagung I Inhaltsverzeichnis III Abbildungsverzeichnis VII Tabellenverzeichnis VIII Abkürzungsverzeichnis XII 1 Einleitung 1 1.1 Diskrepanz bei der Abschätzung der zukünftigen Holznachfrage und der tatsächlichen Entwicklung 1 1.2 Tendenzen bei der Nachfrage und dem Angebot von Holz in der Europäischen Union 4 1.3 Positive Voraussetzungen für die Produktion von Holz in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 7 2 Zielstellung der Arbeit 11 3 Vorgehensweise 14 4 Stand des Wissens 17 4.1 Europarechtliche Bestimmungen für die Holzproduktion auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen 17 4.1.1 Begriffsabgrenzungen 18 4.1.1.1 Abgrenzungen des Begriffs der Kurzumtriebsplantage von Wald 18 4.1.1.2 Waldbegriff der Europäischen Union 19 4.1.2 Kurzumtriebswirtschaft als landwirtschaftliche Tätigkeit 19 4.1.2.1 Erlaubte Baumarten für den Kurzumtrieb in der Europäischen Union 20 4.1.2.2 Agroforstsysteme im Vergleich zu Kurzumtriebsplantagen in der Terminologie der Europäischen Union 20 4.1.3 Gemeinsame Agrarpolitik 2020 21 4.1.3.1 Organe der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik auf Ebene der Europäischen Union und der Verwaltungsunterbau in den Mitgliedstaaten 21 4.1.3.2 Ziele der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020 im Rahmen des Zielsystems Europa 2020 24 4.1.3.3 Instrumentarien der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020 26 4.1.3.4 Finanzmittel zur Agrarstrukturförderung im Rahmen der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020 36 4.2 Kurzumtriebsplantagen auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 37 4.2.1 Derzeitiger Bestand und Betrieb von Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 37 4.2.2 Entwicklung der Plantagenflächen zur Produktion von Holz im Kurzumtrieb in Estland, Lettland und Litauen bis 2014 40 4.2.2.1 Estland 40 4.2.2.2 Lettland 41 4.2.2.3 Litauen 41 5 Analyse der rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen zur Holzproduktion in Kurzumtriebsplantagen 43 5.1 Begriffs-Präzisierungen als Ausdruck der nationalen Verständnisse der Vorschriften der Europäischen Union 43 5.1.1 Waldbegriff in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 43 5.1.1.1 Waldbegriff in Estland 43 5.1.1.2 Waldbegriff in Lettland mit der Besonderheit der Forstplantage nach dem lettischen Waldgesetz 44 5.1.1.3 Waldbegriff in Litauen 50 5.1.2 Umtriebszeiten bei Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 51 5.1.3 Zugelassene Baumarten für Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 52 5.1.4 Unbestimmte Rechtsbegriffe für Nachhaltigkeit in den Waldgesetzen von Estland, Lettland und Litauen 53 5.2 Umsetzung der Förderbestimmungen nach der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020 in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 55 5.2.1 Direktförderung (Säule 1) in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 56 5.2.1.1 Ausgestaltungen der Voraussetzungen für die Direktförderung 57 5.2.1.2 Instrumentarien der Direktförderung 60 5.2.2 Strukturförderung (Säule 2) in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 69 6 Wirtschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen für die Produktion von Holz in Kurzumtriebsplantagen auf landwirtschaftlichen Flächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 74 6.1 Parameter zur Definition der Angebotsseite: Verfügbare Produktionsfaktoren 74 6.1.1 Verfügbarkeit der Ressource Arbeit 74 6.1.2 Verfügbarkeit der Ressource Boden 77 6.1.2.1 Eignung von Flächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen zur Produktion von Holz in Kurzumtriebsplantagen 77 6.1.2.2 Möglichkeit des Bodenerwerbs 79 6.1.2.3 Maßnahmen zur Erhöhung des Flächenangebotes auf den Bodenmärkten in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 82 6.1.2.4 Entwicklung der Preise für landwirtschaftliche Flächen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 84 6.1.3 Verfügbarkeit der Ressource Kapital 85 6.1.3.1 Infrastruktur als maßgebliche Größe des volkswirtschaftlichen Sozialkapitals 85 6.1.3.2 Betriebliches Privatkapital als Investitionsvoraussetzung 86 6.2 Marktsegment für in Kurzumtriebsplantagen erzeugtem Holz in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 87 6.2.1 Potenzialabschätzungen für die Holzmärkte in Estland, Lettland, Litauen und für die Europäische Union 87 6.2.2 Nachfrage nach Holz in der Zielplanung für die Energiebedarfsdeckung in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 91 6.2.2.1 Planerische Ansätze zur Energieversorgung in Estland 94 6.2.2.2 Planerische Ansätze zur Energieversorgung in Lettland 95 6.2.2.3 Planerische Ansätze zur Energieversorgung in Litauen 96 6.3 Business Case für ein reales Unternehmen in Lettland 97 6.3.1 Naturale und monetäre Erträge von Weidenplantagen 98 6.3.1.1 Mengenerträge in Kurzumtriebsplantagen 99 6.3.1.2 Preisniveaus auf dem Markt für Hackschnitzel in Lettland 104 6.3.1.3 Preisniveauvergleich für Litauen und Estland 107 6.3.2 Kosten der Bewirtschaftung von Kurzumtriebsplantagen 108 6.3.3 Ermittlung der Annuitäten als Entscheidungsgrundlage 113 6.3.4 Betrachtung von Veränderungen von Parametern anhand einer Sensitivitätsanalyse 118 6.3.5 Betrachtung des Ergebnisses der Business Case-Berechnung 120 7 Diskussion der Ergebnisse 126 7.1 Hypothese: Das Regelwerk und die darin enthaltenen Fördermaßnahmen der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik 2020/Europa 2020 begünstigen die Produktion von Holz in Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen. 126 7.2 Hypothese: Die nationalen Ausgestaltungen der Bestimmungen der EU favorisieren nicht die Anlage und Nutzung von Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 135 7.3 Hypothese: Die Produktionsfaktoren Arbeit, Boden und Kapital stehen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen in ausreichendem Maße zur Verfügung. 143 7.4 Hypothese: Die Märkte für in Kurzumtriebsplantagen erzeugtem Holz sind zu Preisen aufnahmefähig, die einen rentablen Betrieb von Kurzumtriebsplantagen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen erlauben. 145 7.5 Hypothese: Die Holzproduktion auf Kurzumtriebsplantagen führt zu höheren monetären Erträgen als der Anbau von annuellen Feldfrüchten in Estland, Lettland und Litauen 149 8 Zusammenfassung 152 9 Abstract 157 10 Literaturverzeichnis 161 10.1 Quellennachweis nach Autoren 161 10.2 Rechtsquellen 194 10.2.1 Völkerrechtliche Verträge 194 10.2.2 Rechtsquellen der Europäischen Union 194 10.2.2.1 Grundlagen für die Europäische Union 194 10.2.2.2 Verordnungen der Europäischen Union in chronologisch-numerischer Reihenfolge 194 10.2.2.3 Richtlinien der Europäischen Union in chronologisch-numerischer Reihenfolge 197 10.2.2.4 Delegierte Verordnungen der Europäischen Union in chronologisch-numerischer Reihenfolge und Entscheidungen 197 10.2.3 Rechtsquellen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 199 10.2.4 Rechtsquellen der Republik Estland 199 10.2.5 Rechtsquellen der Republik Lettland 200 10.2.6 Rechtsquellen der Republik Litauen 201
This report is the product of a comprehensive study on Benin. It highlights the country s geographical and economic situation and concentrates in particular on environmental conditions and the challenges facing Benin. This report covers the financing of priority environmental activities, as well as allocations to programs designed to improve the environment and living conditions of the population. The environmental analysis of Benin seeks to help the Government integrate the environment into policy formulation by analyzing cross-cutting aspects and the challenges of implementing sound environmental management, and creating a platform for strengthening the country s capacities in order to facilitate sustainable natural resource and environmental management. To this end, a number of measures have been recommended, among them the establishment of effective policies and institutions based on sound governance and improved effectiveness, and the mobilization of financing for environmental protection and natural resource management. The study includes the analysis of a case study on three cities: Porto-Novo, Cotonou, and Parakou, and examines the impact of environmental problems and environmental management challenges on these cities.
This report has been prepared by the World Bank for the Government of Romania as an output of the World Bank advisory services program on climate change and low-carbon green growth in Romania. In response to the request, the World Bank quickly mobilized a team of sectoral and climate change (CC) specialists and conducted rapid assessments in six sectors - energy, transport, urban, water, agriculture, and forestry, which were pre-identified by both the Government of Romania and the World Bank as areas significant to emission mitigation and or adaptation to CC. The objective of rapid assessments was to quickly evaluate climate risks and identify CC-related investment priorities and necessary implementation support for the 2014-2020 operational programs. This document is the stocktaking report of component A1. It provides an introductory cover to the literature on CC, baseline for Romania, institutional review of Romania and key European Union (EU) requirements, as well as available data sets that were identified in the given short-time span. Its purpose is to support the government as a first stock of key climate and green growth issues for Romania and summarize the current situation. The report is structured as follows: section one gives introduction, section two provides the sectoral summary on the country background and characteristics. Section three provides the baseline for the CC and green growth challenges in Romania. Relevant climate dimensions of Europe 2020 and existing EU regulations and policies related to climate change are summarized in section four. Section five provides an overview of national strategies, regulatory framework, and organizational setup for addressing CC in Romania. Background information on the Romania 2014-2020 European structural and investment funds (ESIF) programming and CC related aspects in the forthcoming ESIF programming report are covered in section six. Finally, section seven provides a CC relevant bibliography for Romania that may serve as a tool for referring to key literature in the field.
Reliance on solid fuels for cooking is an indicator of energy poverty. Access to modern energy services - including electricity and clean fuels - is important for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It can also reduce womens domestic burden of collecting fuelwood and allow them to pursue educational, economic, and other employment opportunities that can empower them and lead to increased gender equality. Similarly, the use of clean cooking and heating fuels in efficient appliances can reduce child mortality rates. Without access to modern energy services, the likelihood of escaping poverty is very low. Interventions to improve energy access to the poor have focused mainly on electricity access and have often neglected nonelectricity household energy access. Household energy for cooking in particular has received little policy attention in the overall energy sector dialogue, and consequently its lending volume remains low, in spite of the magnitude of the development challenges it represents. The objective of this note is to assist task teams with broad project design principles related to household energy for cooking. It follows five main reports produced by the World Bank Group over the last three years: (1) Household Cookstoves, Environment, Health, and Climate Change: A New Look at an Old Problem; (2) Household Energy Access for Cooking and Heating: Lessons Learned and the Way Forward; (3) One Goal, Two Paths Achieving Universal Access to Modern Energy in East Asia and Pacific; (4) Wood-Based Biomass Energy Development for Sub-Saharan Africa; and (5) What Have We Learned about Household Biomass Cooking in Central America? These reports make the case for a re-engagement of the World Bank Group in the household energy access sector. This note is organized into two sections: (a) context and background, and (b) project design principles.
This country note for Armenia is part of a series of country briefs that summarize information relevant to climate change and agriculture for three pilot countries in the Southern Caucasus Region, with a particular focus on climate and crop projections, adaptation options, policy development and institutional involvement. The note series has been developed to provide a baseline of knowledge on climate change and agriculture for the countries participating in the regional program on reducing vulnerability to climate change in Southern Caucasus Agricultural systems. This note for Armenia was shared with the government and other agricultural sector stakeholders and used as an engagement tool for a national awareness raising and consultation workshop, held in Yerevan in April 2012. Feedback and comments on the note from this consultation process have been incorporated into this updated version in collaboration with the Armenian Ministry of Agriculture.
This strategic framework serves to guide and support the operational response of the World Bank Group (WBG) to new development challenges posed by global climate change. Unabated, climate change threatens to reverse hard-earned development gains. The poorest countries and communities will suffer the earliest and the most. Yet they depend on actions by other nations, developed and developing. While climate change is an added cost and risk to development, a well-designed and implemented global climate policy can also bring new economic opportunities to developing countries. Climate change demands unprecedented global cooperation involving a concerted action by countries at different development stages supported by "measurable, reportable, and verifiable" transfer of finance and technology to developing countries. Trust of developing countries in equity and fairness of a global climate policy and neutrality of the supporting institutions is critical for such cooperation to succeed. Difficulties with mobilizing resources for achieving the millennium development goals and with agreeing on global agricultural trade underscore the political challenges. The framework will help the WBG maintain the effectiveness of its core mission of supporting growth and poverty reduction. While recognizing added costs and risks of climate change and an evolving global climate policy. The WBG top priority will be to build collaborative relations with developing country partners and provide them customized demand-driven support through its various instruments from financing to technical assistance to constructive advocacy. It will give considerable attention to strengthening resilience of economies and communities to increasing climate risks and adaptation. The operational focus will be on improving knowledge and capacity, including learning by doing. The framework will guide operational programs of WBG entities to support actions whose benefits to developing countries are robust under significant uncertainties about future climate policies and impacts-actions that have "no regrets."
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Eyal Weizman on the Architectural-Image Complex, Forensic Archeology and Policing across the Desertification Line
Incidents in global politics are usually apprehended as the patterned interaction of macro-actors such as states. Eyal Weizman takes a different tack—an architect by training, Weizman tackles incidents through detailed readings of heterogeneous materials—digital images, debris, reforestation, blast patterns in ruins—to piece together concrete positions of engagement in specific legal, political, or activist controversies in global politics. In this Talk, Weizman—among others—elaborates on methods across scales and material territories, discusses the interactions of environment and politics, and traces his trajectory in forensic architecture.
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What is—or should be—according to you, the biggest challenge, central focus or principal debate in critical social sciences?
We live in an age in which there is both a great storm of information and a progressive form of activism seeking to generate transparency in relation to government institutions, corporations or secret services. These forms of exposure exponentially increase the number of primary sources on corporations and state and provide also rare media from war zones, but this by itself does not add more clarity. It could increase confusion and increasingly be used disseminate false information and propaganda. The challenge is to start another process to carefully piece together and compose this information.
I'm concerned with research about armed conflict. Contemporary conflict tends to take place in urban environments saturated with media of varicose sorts, whenever violence is brought into a city, it provokes an enormous production of images, clips, sounds, text, etc.
As conflict in Iraq, Syria, Missouri and the Ukraine demonstrate, one of the most important potential sources for conflict investigations is produced by the very people living in the war zones and made available in social networks almost instantly. The citizens recording events in conflict zones are conscious of producing testimonies and evidence, and importantly so, they do so on their own terms. The emergence of citizen journalists/witness has already restructured the fields of journalism with most footage composing Al Jazeera broadcasts, for example, being produced by non-professional media. The addition of a huge multiplicity of primary sources, live testimonies and filmed records of events, challenge research methods and evidentiary practices. There is much locational and spatial information that can be harvested from within these blurry, shaky and unedited images/clips and architectural methodologies are essential in reconstructing incidents in space. Architecture is a good framework to understand the world, alongside others.
Whereas debates around the 'politics of the image' in the field of photography and visual cultures tended to concentrate on the decoding of single images and photojournalistic trophy shots we now need to study the creation of extensive 'image-complexes' and inhabit this field reconstruct events from images taken at different perspective and at different times. The relation between images is architectural, best composed and represented within 3D models. Architectural analysis is useful in locating other bits of evidence—recorded testimonies, films and photos—from multiple perspectives in relation to one other bits of evidence and cross referring these in space.
But 'image complexes' are about interrogating the field of visibility it is also about absence, failures of representation, blockages or destruction of images.
How did you arrive at where you currently are in your thinking about global politics?
I'm an architect, and my intellectual upbringing is in architectural theory and spatial theory. I tend to hold on to this particular approach when I'm entering a geopolitical context or areas that would otherwise be the domain of journalists and human rights people, traditional jurists, etc. Architecture taught me to pay attention to details, to materiality, to media, and to make very close observations about the way built structures might embody political relations.
When I study political situations, I study them as an architect: I look at the way politics turns into a material—spatial practice—the materialization, and at the spatialization, of political forces. Architectural form—as I explained many times—is slowed-down force. My thinking is structured around a relation between force and form. And form, for an architect, is an entry point from which to read politics. So when I look at matter and material reality—like a building, a destroyed building, a piece of infrastructure, a road or bridge, a settlement or suburb or city—I look at it as a product of a political force field. But it is never static. A city always grows, expands or contracts recording the multiple political relations that shaped it.
Buildings continuously record their environment. So one can read political force on buildings. In taking this approach, I am influenced by building surveyors, and insurance people going into a building to look at a scratch in a wall to piece together what might have happened, and what might still happen. So I feel like a kind of property surveyor on the scale of a city at times of war. But in practicing this forensic architecture I also work like an archaeologist: archaeology is about looking at material remains and trying to piece together the cultural, political, military, or social spheres. But I'm an archaeologist of very recent past or of the present. While some of my investigations will always retain a haptic dimension based on material examination, much of it is an analysis of material captured and registered by various medias. Verify, locate, compose and cross-reference a spatial reality from images of architecture.
What would a student need to become a specialist in your field or understand the world in a global way?
The institutes I run do not recruit only architects. We need to open up the disciplinary bounds of education. We work with filmmakers and architects and with artists.
It embodies a desire to understand architecture as a field of inquiry, with which you can interrogate reality as it is effectively registering material transformation. I see architecture as a way of augmenting our way of seeing things in the world, but it's not for me a kind of sacred field that should not be touched or changed.
But I'm also using architecture across the entire spectrum of its relation to politics, from the very dystopian—with forensic architecture, a kind of architectural pathology—to the utopian. I have a studio in Palestine with Palestinian partners of mine, and internationals. Alessandro Petty and Sandi Hilal are in this group, which is called Decolonizing Architure. It's this group that is engaged in very utopian projects for the West Bank and Palestine and the return of refugees and so on. So I use architecture across the entire spectrum, from the very dystopian to the very utopian. Architecture is simply a way of engaging the world and its politics. Space is the way of establishing relations between things. And actually space is not static, it is both a means of establishing relations between people and objects and things. Just as material itself is always an event, always under transformation. So that is something I have taken from architecture and try to bring into politics, but not only in analyzing crimes, but in producing the reality yet to come.
So what we need from people is the desire to understand aesthetics as a field of inquiry, not simply as a pleasurable play of beauty and pleasing kind of effect, but as a kind of very sensorial field, sensorium, in which you can interrogate reality as it is effectively registering material transformation. So I would look simply for that kind of sensorial intensity and high critical approach and understanding and speculating of how it is we know what we think we know. Of course, you cannot see, or you do not know what you see, you do not have the language to interpret or question what it is you 'see' without abstract constructs. This means I don't necessarily look for theoretical capacities in people: I see theory as a way of augmenting our way of seeing things in the world, of registering them, of decoding them, but it's not for me a kind of sacred field to which I submit in any way.
So what is it you work on now?
I'm mostly trying to establish forensic architecture as a critical field of practice and as an agency that produce and disseminate evidence about war crimes in urban context. Recent forensic investigations in Guatemala and in the Israeli Negev involved the intersection of violence and environmental transformations, even climate change. For trials and truth commissions, we analyze the extent to which environmental transformation intersect with conflict.
The imaging of this previously invisible types of violence—'environmental violence' such as land degradation, the destruction of fields and forests (in the tropics), pollution and water diversion, and also long term processes of desertification—we use as new type of evidence of processes dispersed across time and space. There are other conflicts that unfold in relation to climatic and environmental transformations and in particular in relation to environmental scarcity.
Conflict has reciprocal interaction with environment transformation: environmental change could aggravate conflict, while conflict tends to generate further environmental damage. This has been apparent in Darfur, Sudan where the conflict was aggravated by increased competition over arable due to local land erosion and desertification. War and insurgency have occurred along Sahel—Arabic for 'shoreline'—on the southern threshold of the Sahara Desert, which is only ebbing as million of hectares of former arable land turn to desert. In past decades, conflicts have broken out in most countries from East to West Africa, along this shoreline: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal. In 2011 in the city of Daraa, farmers' protests, borne out of an extended cycle of droughts, marked the beginning of the Syrian civil war. Similar processes took place in the eastern outskirts of Damascus, Homs, al-Raqqah and along the threshold of the great Syrian and Northern Iraqi Deserts. These transformations impact upon cities, themselves a set of entangled natural/man-made environments. The conflict and hardships along desertification bands compel dispossessed farmers to embark upon increasingly perilous paths of migrations, leading to fast urbanization at the growing outskirts of the cities and slams.
I'm trying to understand these processes across desert thresholds. There has been a very long colonial debate about what is the line beyond which the desert begins. Most commonly it was defined as 200 mm rain per annum. Cartographers were trying to draw it, as it represented, to a certain extent, the limit of imperial control. From this line on, most policing was done through bombing of tribal areas from the air. Since the beginning, the emergence of the use of air power in policing in the post World War I period—aerial control, aerial government—took form in places that were perceived, at the time, as lying beyond the thresholds or edges of the law. The British policing of Iraq, the French in Syria, and Algeria, the Italians in Libya are examples where control would hover in air.
Up to now I was writing about borders that were physical and manmade: walls in the West Bank or Gaza and the siege around it—most notably in Hollow Land (2007, read the introduction here). Now I started to write about borders that are made by the interaction of people and the environment—like the desert line—which is not less violent and brutal. The colonial history of Palestine has been an attempt to push the line of the desert south, trying to make it green or bloom—this is in Ben Gurion's terms—but the origins of this statement are earlier and making the desert green and pushing the line of the desert was also Mussolini's stated aim. On the other hand, climate change is now pushing that line north.
Following not geopolitical but meteorological borders, helps me cut across a big epistemological problem that confines the writing in international relations or geopolitics within the borders organize your writing. Braudel is an inspiration but, for him, the environment of the Mediterranean is basically cyclically fixed. The problem with geographical determinism is that it takes nature as a given, cyclical, milieu which then affects politics—but I think we are now in a period where politics affects nature in the same way in which nature affects politics. The climate is changing in the same speed as human history.
What does your background in architecture add to understanding the global political controversies you engage in?
We are a forensic agency that provides services to prosecution teams around the world. With our amazing members we ran 20-odd cases around the world from the Amazon to Atacama, for the UN, for Amnesty, for Palestinian NGOs, in Gaza of course, West Bank, issues of killings, individual killings in the West Bank that we do now, and much more drastic destructions.
Forensic Architecture is unique in using architectural research methodologies to analyze violations of human rights and international humanitarian law as they bear upon the built environment—on buildings, cities and territories, and this is why we get many commissions. We produced architectural evidence for numerous investigations and presented them in a number of cases in national and international courts and tribunals. We were commissioned by the UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights to study single destroyed buildings, as well as patterns of destruction, resulting from drone warfare in Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and Gaza. This study was presented at the UN General Assembly in New York. We developed techniques to locate the remains of buildings and villages overgrown by thick rain forests and presented this material as evidence in the genocide trial of former president Efraín Ríos Montt in the National Court of Guatemala and the Inter-American Court. We quantified and analyzed levels of architectural destruction in Gaza after the 2014 conflict for Amnesty International. We provided architectural models and animations to support a petition against the wall in Battir submitted to the Israeli High Court, helping to win the case.
Recently, we use and deal with the reconstruction of human testimony. Witnesses to war give account of the worst moment of their lives; times when their dear ones have died or hurt. Their memory is disturbed, and tends to be blurred. We have developed a way of very carefully interviewing and discussing with witnesses. Together with them, we build digital models of their own homes. So we can see a very slow process of reconstruction of the relation between memory space and architecture. And events start coming back, through the process of building.
In order to develop this, we needed to explore the historical use of memory and architecture, such as Frances Yates' The Art of Memory (read it here), as well as different accounts on the use of trauma, and bring them into the digital age, bring an understanding of the relation of testimony and evidence into contemporary thinking. Single incidents tend to be argued away as aberrations of 'standard operating procedures'. To bring charges against government and military leaderships, it is necessary to demonstrate 'gross and systematic' violations. This means finding consistent and repeated patterns of violations. Architectural analysis, undertaken on the level of the city is able to demonstrate repetition and transformations in patterns of violation/destruction in space and time—within the battle zone along the duration of the conflict. Architectural analysis is useful not only in dealing with architectural evidence—i.e with destroyed buildings—but also helpful in locating other bits of evidence—testimony films or photos—in relation to one other bits of evidence, and cross referring these in space.
Urban violence unfolds at different intensities, speeds and spatial scales: it is made of patterns of multiple instantaneous events as well as slower incremental processes of 'environmental violence' that affects the transformation of larger territories. We aims to analyze and present the relation between forms of violence that occur at different space and time scales. From eruptive kinetic violence of the instantaneous/human incident through patterns of destruction mapped across and along the duration of urban conflict, to what Rob Nixon calls the 'slow violence' of environmental transformation (read the introduction of the eponymous book here, pdf).
Last question. How does your approach to research relate to, or differ from, approaches to international politics?
To study conflict as a reality that unfolds across multiple scales, we use the microphysical approach—dealing with details, fragments and ruins—as an entry-point from which we will unpack the larger dynamics of a conflict. We reconstruct singular incidents, locate them in space and time to look for and identify patterns, then study these patterns in relation to long terms and wide-scale environmental transformations. This approach seeks to make connections between, what Marc Bloch of the Annales School called 'micro- and macro-history, between close-ups and extreme long shots' in his thesis on historical method. This topological approach is distinct from a traditional scalar one: the macro (political/strategic/territorial) situation will not be seen a root cause for a myriad set of local human right violations (incidents/tactics). In the complex reality of conflict, singularities are equally the result of 'framing conditions' and also contributing factors to phase transitions that might affect, or 'de-frame' as Latour has put it, changes occurring in wider areas. Instead of nesting smaller scales within larger ones, our analysis will seek to fluidly shift from macro to micro, from political conditions to individual cases, from buildings to environments and this along multiple threads, connection and feedback loops.
While in relation to the single incident it might still be possible to establish a direct, liner connection between the two limit figures of the perpetrator and the victim along the model of (international) criminal law, evidence for environmental violence is more scattered and diffused. Instead, it requires the examination of what we call 'field causalities'—causal ecologies that are non-linear, diffused, simultaneous, and that involve multiple agencies and feedback loops, challenging the immediacy of 'evidence'.
Establishing field causalities requires the examination of force fields and causal ecologies, that are non-linear, diffused, simultaneous and involve multiple agencies and feedback loops. Whereas linear causality entails a focus on sequences of causal events on the model of criminal law that seeks to trace a direct line between the two limit figures of victim and perpetrator field causality involves the spatial arrangement of simultaneous sites, actions and causes. It is inherently relational and thus a spatial concept. By treating space as the medium of relation between separate elements of evidence brought together, we aim to expand the analytical scope of forensic architecture. It is inherently relational and thus a spatial concept. By treating space as the medium of relation between separate elements of evidence brought together, field causalities expands the analytical scope of forensic architecture.
Let me illustrate this a bit. Forms of violence are crucially convertible one to another. Drying fields along the Sahel or the Great Syrian Desert, for example, reach a point in which they can no longer support their farmers, contributing to impoverishment, migration to cities, slumnization and waves of protest that might contribute to the eruption of armed conflict. These layers call for a form of architectural analysis able to shift and synthesize information at different scales—from single incidents as they are registered in the immediate spatial setting, through patterns of violations across the entire urban terrain to 'environmental violence' articulated in the transformation of large territories.
Eyal Weizman is an architect, Professor of Visual Cultures and director of the Centre for Research Architecture at Goldsmiths, University of London. Since 2011 he also directs the European Research Council funded project, Forensic Architecture - on the place of architecture in international humanitarian law. Since 2007 he is a founding member of the architectural collective DAAR in Beit Sahour/Palestine. Weizman has been a professor of architecture at the Academy of Fine Arts in Vienna and has also taught at the Bartlett (UCL) in London at the Stadel School in Frankfurt and is a Professeur invité at the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) in Paris. He lectured, curated and organised conferences in many institutions worldwide. His books include Mengele's Skull (with Thomas Keenan at Sterenberg Press 2012), ForensicArchitecture (dOCUMENTA13 notebook, 2012), The Least of all Possible Evils (Nottetempo 2009, Verso 2011), Hollow Land (Verso, 2007), A Civilian Occupation (Verso, 2003), the series Territories 1,2 and 3, Yellow Rhythms and many articles in journals, magazines and edited books.
Related links
Facultyprofile at Goldsmith Forensic Architecture homepage Read Weizman's introduction to Forensis (2014) here (pdf) Read Weizman's Forensic Architecture: Notes from Fields and Forums (dOCUMENTA 2012) here (pdf) Read Weizman's Lethal Theory (2009) here (pdf) Read the introduction to Weizman's Hollow Land (2007) here (pdf)
Print version of this Talk (pdf)
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