Is It Better to Join the Majority? The Electoral Effects of Party Switching by Incumbent Southern State Legislators, 1972 to 2000

In: American review of politics, Band 25, S. 79-98

Abstract

What are the electoral effects of a change in partisan affiliation for legislators? To answer this question, 6,357 state legislative elections from 1972 to 2000 in five southern states are examined. By comparing this subset of party-switching southern legislators to their non-switching colleagues, I am able to examine (1) whether partisan affiliation & changes in party labels affect electoral outcomes over the short- & long-term; & (2) whether switching parties into the majority party in the legislature affects electoral outcomes. The findings are that incumbent legislators who switch parties do worse in general elections following their switch, especially in elections immediately following their switch. However, once these legislators have switched parties, if their party takes control of the legislature, they do no worse than their non-switching colleagues. Interestingly, other results demonstrate that southern legislators who have switched from Democrat to Republican in the 1990s have done worse following their switches, suggesting that partisan realignment among voters has not been realized completely at the state legislative level. 6 Tables, 1 Appendix, 45 References. Adapted from the source document.