Fallt die Wahlentscheidung immer spater? Die Entwicklung des Zeitpunkts der Wahlentscheidung bei den Bundestagswahlen 1969 bis 2009

In: Politische Vierteljahresschrift: PVS : German political science quarterly, Band 55, Heft 1, S. 118-144

Abstract

Survey data indicate that German voters make their final vote decision increasingly late. However, doubts persist with regard to the validity of time-of-decision measurement which is based on voters' retrospective self-assessments. In this article, it is examined whether the increase in the share of late decisions can be replicated when applying an alternative measure of time-of-vote decision, thereby making use of panel data of eight German federal elections between 1969 and 2009. It will be demonstrated that the recall measurement lacks validity. Furthermore, the increase in the share of late decisions turns out to be much smaller than previously assumed. Adapted from the source document.