Fertility, Mortality and Income-Changes over the Long Run: Some Simulation Experiments

In: The journal of development studies: JDS, Band 14, Heft 4, S. 40-78

Abstract

A simple economic-demographic model of a `segmented' economy (in which there are rich, middle & poor income groups) is used to explore some of the demographic implications of different patterns of income growth in an initially highly unequal society. Simulations in which the distribution of income remains highly skewed over time are compared with runs which incorporate a redistributional strategy. These simulations are performed under a variety of assumptions as to the future pace of fertility & mortality decline. The results lend tentative support to the following propositions,: (1) that if the demographic transition in many countries is to occur within a reasonable period of time, then it must be postulated that in the future, fertility will fall to relatively low levels at very low levels of income, (2) that in some circumstances at least, a redistribution of income may assist in speeding up the pace of fertility decline & reduce rates of population growth, & (3) that if the level of per capita income is taken as the criterion of economic performance, then over the long run, a redistribution of income may be worthwhile even if it should `cost' something in terms of the growth of total national income. Supplementary arguments are presented for income redistribution in a developing economy. The simulations also illustrate some of the difficulties involved in economic-demographic modeling. 6 Figures, Appendix. AA.