Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?

In: Journal of common market studies: JCMS, Band 40, Heft 1, S. 23-42

Abstract

Will further integration make business cycles in EMU countries more similar? This article answers the question by analyzing to what extent business cycles in US & German states have become more synchronized & by examining whether synchronization in OECD countries is affected by trade intensity & exchange rate stability. Using long-run data for the US we find only mixed evidence for synchronization. However, postwar data for Germany suggests that business cycles behave more similarly over time. The evidence for OECD countries is mixed: trade intensity has led to more, & exchange rate stability to less, synchronization. 4 Tables, 2 Figures, 26 References. Adapted from the source document.