Social Systems and Social Complexity in Relation to Interdisciplinary Policymaking and Planning

In: Policy sciences: integrating knowledge and practice to advance human dignity ; the journal of the Society of Policy Scientists, Band 3, Heft 4, S. 405-420

Abstract

Jay Forrester ("Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems," Technology Review, 1971, 73, 3), has shown that computer simulation indicates that the intuitive models usually invoked to deal with planning contingencies lead to basically erroneous results. The reason is that the real world systems are multi-loop, nonlinear feedback systems whose structures run counter to intuitive models generally devised for dealing with SE environmental problems. Also, planning & policy making often ignore "systems breaks." Planning models are needed that will evolve in the course of time, taking into account the system breaks. System breaks usually lead to unstable parameters in the simplistic models. The tasks of planning & policy making is to accurately convey the structures of the complex systems for which we are trying to plan. The determination of the particular values of the parameters is less important than the task of developing models that approximate real-world structures with increasing fidelity. In development & economic planning, adding more technology & manufacturing processes to the world's capital stock through efforts to industrialize underdeveloped economies increases pollution & environmental degradation. Therefore the planning must avoid the currently existing capital stock framework. Development planning must take steps to develop technologies & production processes which avoid ecological degradation & minimize the amount of uncycled waste. Models for planning & policy making must be increasingly multi-loop, nonlinear, & must incorporate unconventional technologies & industrial processes not of the type commonly found in the West. Modified HA.