THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC ISSUES IN ELECTIONS: THE CASE OF THE 1988 CHILEAN PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM

In: Public choice, Band 71, Heft 1, S. 51-60

Abstract

IT HAS BEEN A LONG-STANDING AND WIDELY ACCEPTED HYPOTHESIS THAT ECONOMIC EVENTS PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE RESULTS OF ELECTIONS. THIS PAPER AIMS AT FURTHER TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS THAT ECONOMIC ISSUES HAVE A ROLE IN THE SHAPING OF VOTERS PREFERENCES. TO DO SO, THE AUTHORS HAVE USED DATA FROM THE PRESIDENTIAL REFERNDUM HELD IN CHILE ON 5 OCTOBER, 1988. THE REFERENDUM PRESENTED TWO OPTIONS: THE OPTION YES IMPLIED THE CONTINUATION OF GENERAL AUGUSTO PINOCHET AS PRESIDENT OF CHILE FOR AN EIGHT YEAR PERIOD; THE OPTION NO IMPLIED AN OPEN GENERAL ELECTIONS TO BE HELD IN DEVEMBER OF 1989. THE PAPER CONCLUDES THAT EVEN THOUGH ECONOMIC VARIABLES ARE A KEY FACTOR IN VOTER'S PREFERENCES AND ELECTORAL RESULTS, THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY FOR GOVERNMENTS TO MANIPULATE THESE VARIABLES AND BENEFIT FROM OPPORTUNISITC BEHAVIORS.