An Application of the Fan-Chart Approach to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries

In: IMF Working Papers v.Working Paper No. 14/102

Abstract

We analyse the debt dynamics in countries that benefited from the HIPC/MDRI debt relief initiatives with a view to applying a probabilistic approach to estimating future debt paths for those countries. We extend the probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) proposed by Celasun et al. (2006). This required addressing the twin challenges of a the time period that is too short to conduct country-by-country estimations and the presence, suggested by econometric evidence, of a break?point around 2006 in the dynamics of debt accumulation. To overcome the data limitations