Systematic method for prioritizing investments in game-changing technologies: the evaluation and comparison process framework

In: Research report RR-A632-1

Abstract

The current economic and technological environment requires making difficult choices about technology investments. Technologies that could be critical to meeting the enduring challenges faced by the Department of the Air Force are proliferating and developing at an accelerating pace. In some cases, these technologies have dual-use applications that are the focus of commercial activity in the United States and abroad. Current and potential adversaries, especially those with near-peer capacity, are developing increasingly robust capabilities to challenge U.S. dominance. U.S. government and civilian organizations face budget constraints that will require choices to be made about which of the gamut of technologies to invest in to meet these challenges. A systematic method of comparing and evaluating technology options to ensure that limited resources are invested wisely is needed. This report summarizes a framework and process to characterize and compare potential game-changing technologies (GCTs) based on the likely operational advantage given specific technological capabilities and concepts of operation or implementation. The objective of framework and process was to maximize the value of government or private-sector investments by providing a means for preliminary guidance on investments in technologies with the greatest consequence. Comparisons of GCTs in this framework are based on assessments of performance in validated analyses, modeling, or simulations in comparison with baseline technologies. However, comparisons go beyond performance to also consider the research, development, and implementation challenges, as well as costs associated with achieving, fielding, and sustaining the GCT capabilities that could lead to the greatest increase in operational advantage