Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Introduction -- Surveillance or Aggressive Treatment -- Evolution of the Book -- Summary -- 1: Clinical Guidelines and Clinical Judgment -- 1.1. Adherence to Guidelines or Exercise of Judgment? -- Variation in Guidelines -- Case Study: Nodal Observation or Dissection in Treatment of Melanoma -- 1.2. Degrees of Personalized Medicine -- Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease -- The Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool -- Predicting Unrealistically Precise Probabilities -- 1.3. Optimal Care Assuming Rational Expectations -- Optimal Choice between Surveillance and Aggressive Treatment -- 1.4. Psychological Research Comparing Evidence-Based Prediction and Clinical Judgment -- 1.5. Second-Best Welfare Comparison of Adherence to Guidelines and Clinical Judgment -- Surveillance or Aggressive Treatment of Women at Risk of Breast Cancer -- 2: Wishful Extrapolation from Research to Patient Care -- 2.1. From Study Populations to Patient Populations -- Trials of Drug Treatments for Hypertension -- Campbell and the Primacy of Internal Validity -- 2.2. From Experimental Treatments to Clinical Treatments -- Intensity of Treatment -- Blinding in Drug Trials -- 2.3. From Measured Outcomes to Patient Welfare -- Interpreting Surrogate Outcomes -- Assessing Multiple Outcomes -- 2.4. From Hypothesis Tests to Treatment Decisions -- Using Hypothesis Tests to Compare Treatments -- Using Hypothesis Tests to Choose When to Report Findings -- 2.5. Wishful Meta-Analysis of Disparate Studies -- A Meta-Analysis of Outcomes of Bariatric Surgery -- The Misleading Rhetoric of Meta-Analysis -- The Algebraic Wisdom of Crowds -- 2.6. Sacrificing Relevance for Certitude -- 3: Credible Use of Evidence to Inform Patient Care -- 3.1. Identification of Treatment Response -- Unobservability of Counterfactual Treatment Outcomes -- Trial Data.
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