Statistics and the evaluation of evidence for forensics scientists

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface to Third Edition -- Preface to Second Edition -- Preface to First Edition -- Chapter 1 Uncertainty in Forensic Science -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Statistics and the Law -- 1.3 Uncertainty in Scientific Evidence -- 1.3.1 The Frequentist Method -- 1.3.2 Stains of Body Fluids -- 1.3.3 Glass Fragments -- 1.4 Terminology -- 1.5 Types of Data -- 1.6 Populations -- 1.7 Probability -- 1.7.1 Introduction -- 1.7.2 A Standard for Uncertainty -- 1.7.3 Events -- 1.7.4 Classical and Frequentist Definitions of Probability and Their Limitations -- 1.7.5 Subjective Definition of Probability -- 1.7.6 The Quantification of Probability Through a Betting Scheme -- 1.7.7 Probabilities and Frequencies: The Role of Exchangeability -- 1.7.8 Laws of Probability -- 1.7.9 Dependent Events and Background Information -- 1.7.10 Law of Total Probability -- 1.7.11 Updating of Probabilities -- Chapter 2 The Evaluation of Evidence -- 2.1 Odds -- 2.1.1 Complementary Events -- 2.1.2 Examples -- 2.1.3 Definition of Odds -- 2.2 Bayes' Theorem -- 2.2.1 Statement of the Theorem -- 2.2.2 Examples -- 2.3 The Odds Form of Bayes' Theorem -- 2.3.1 Likelihood Ratio -- 2.3.2 Bayes' Factor and Likelihood Ratio -- 2.3.3 Three‐Way Tables -- 2.3.4 Logarithm of the Likelihood Ratio -- 2.4 The Value of Evidence -- 2.4.1 Evaluation of Forensic Evidence -- 2.4.2 Justification of the Use of the Likelihood Ratio -- 2.4.3 Single Value for the Likelihood Ratio -- 2.4.4 Role of Background Information -- 2.4.5 Summary of Competing Propositions -- 2.4.6 Qualitative Scale for the Value of the Evidence -- 2.5 Errors in Interpretation -- 2.5.1 Fallacy of the Transposed Conditional -- 2.5.2 Source Probability Error -- 2.5.3 Ultimate Issue Error -- 2.5.4 Defence Attorney's Fallacy -- 2.5.5 Probability (Another Match) Error.

"With the increase in the availability of data, the role of statistical and probabilistic reasoning is becoming ever more high profile, and courts are increasingly aware of the importance of the proper assessment of evidence in which there is random variation. Statistical techniques allow the forensic scientist to evaluate and interpret evidence where there is an element of uncertainty. Since its first publication in 1995, this highly regarded book has been considered as the leading text in statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. Bringing together authors from the fields of both statistics and forensic science, all international experts in the evaluation and interpretation of evidence, the third edition will be fully revised and updated to reflect the latest research and developments in this field."--

"With the increase in the availability of data, the role of statistical and probabilistic reasoning is becoming ever more high profile, and courts are increasingly aware of the importance of the proper assessment of evidence in which there is random variation. Statistical techniques allow the forensic scientist to evaluate and interpret evidence where there is an element of uncertainty. Since its first publication in 1995, this highly regarded book has been considered as the leading text in statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. Bringing together authors from the fields of both statistics and forensic science, all international experts in the evaluation and interpretation of evidence, the third edition will be fully revised and updated to reflect the latest research and developments in this field."--

The first edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists established itself as a highly regarded authority on this area. Fully revised and updated, the second edition provides significant new material on areas of current interest including: Glass InterpretationFibres InterpretationBayes Nets

The first edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists established itself as a highly regarded authority on this area. Fully revised and updated, the second edition provides significant new material on areas of current interest including: Glass InterpretationFibres InterpretationBayes' Nets The title presents comprehensive coverage of the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It is written with the assumption of a modest mathematical background and is illustrated throughout with up-to-date examples from a forensic science background. The clarity of exp