Regional Economic Outlook, May 2018, Europe

Abstract

Cover -- Contents -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- Europe: Country Groups and Weights (2016) -- Executive Summary -- 1. Managing the Upswing in Uncertain Times -- Economic Activity Continues to Firm Up -- Key Forces Shaping the Outlook: Favorable External Conditions and Still-Accomodative Macroeconomic Policies -- Risks Are Better Balanced in the Near Term, but Remain Tilted to the Downside in the Medium Term -- Policy Priorities -- References -- 2. European Wage Dynamics and Labor Market Integration -- Recent European Wage Developments -- Evolving Employment Arrangements and Measuring Slack -- EU Integration and Labor Market Developments -- Exploring Drivers of European Wage Behavior -- Factors Driving Wages within Regions -- Expectations, Wages, and Inflation -- Conclusions and Policy Implications -- References -- Boxes -- 1.1 The Capital Expenditure Recovery Cycle: Insights from the European Investment Bank Survey -- 1.2 How Different Is the Current Recovery in Europe Compared with Previous Ones? -- 1.3 What Do Large Stock Price Drops Mean for an Economy? -- 1.4 Policies to Get People to Work: The European Experience -- 2.1 Euro Area Wage Developments and External Rebalancing -- 2.2 Wage Dynamics: How Important Are Common Factors? -- 2.3 Labor Mobility in Europe