Hybrid Threats in the Black Sea – Identifying Geographic and Economic Vulnerabilities of Romania's Maritime Area

In: Romanian military thinking, Band 2024, Heft 1, S. 76-95

Abstract

With no clear evidence of its origin, hybrid warfare is a worldwide phenomenon, its effects having worldwide reverberations. Characterised by a very high adaptability and flexibility of the methods and procedures used, as well as the continuous expansion of the target audience or the area of coverage, hybrid warfare is not a new concept in human history. Overshadowed
by the much higher degree of destruction and the very large number of human victims – specific to conventional war – unconventional actions – an integral part of hybrid war – often go unnoticed, but their effects are felt in all areas of human society existence. Today, the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation are classic examples of hybrid warfare, characterised by true intentions concealment along with the fact that special operations forces experience and support allowed ethnic Russian communities to organise paramilitary groups with the aim of creating an ambiguous and
insecure environment on Ukraine's territory. Furthermore, these events forced NATO leaders to identify and implement measures to limit and reduce Russian Federation possibilities to apply a similar strategy against the Black Sea or Baltic Sea member states. Analysing in detail the Russian hybrid actions major impact in the maritime environment, materialised both by the two parties' state borders modification and the Russian Federation Exclusive Economic Zone expansion to the detriment of Ukraine, this paper aims to identify geographical and economic vulnerabilities in the Black Sea, the exploitation of which can result in the weakening of the south-eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. Moreover, the present study's results will represent the basis of a further analysis that will highlight the optimal measures for their reduction.