Dynamic path-dependent landslide susceptibility modelling

In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 20, Heft 1, S. 271-285

Abstract

Abstract. This contribution tests the added value of including landslide path
dependency in statistically based landslide susceptibility modelling. A
conventional pixel-based landslide susceptibility model was compared with a
model that includes landslide path dependency and with a purely path-dependent landslide susceptibility model. To quantify path dependency among
landslides, we used a space–time clustering (STC) measure derived from
Ripley's space–time K function implemented on a point-based multi-temporal landslide inventory from the Collazzone study area in central Italy. We found that the values of STC obey an exponential-decay curve with a characteristic timescale of 17 years and characteristic spatial scale of 60 m. This exponential space–time decay of the effect of a previous landslide on landslide susceptibility was used as the landslide path-dependency component of susceptibility models. We found that the performance of the conventional landslide susceptibility model improved considerably when adding the effect of landslide path dependency. In fact, even the purely path-dependent landslide susceptibility model turned out to perform better than the conventional landslide susceptibility model. The
conventional plus path-dependent and path-dependent landslide susceptibility model and their resulting maps are dynamic and change over time, unlike conventional landslide susceptibility maps.