Trends in social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, China

In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 20, Heft 9, S. 2447-2462

Abstract

Abstract. An evaluation of social vulnerability to storm surges is important
for any coastal city to provide marine disaster preparedness and mitigation
procedures and to formulate post-disaster emergency plans for coastal
communities. This study establishes an integrated evaluation system of
social vulnerability by blending a variety of single-evaluation methods,
which are subsequently combined by weighting in order to calculate a common
social vulnerability index. Shenzhen has a current reputation of having considerable economic development potential and is a representative city
in China. It is chosen for an evaluation of its social vulnerability to
storm surges via a historical social and economic statistical dataset
spanning the period 1986–2016. Exposure and sensitivity increased slowly
with some fluctuation, leading to some alterations of the social
vulnerability trend. Social vulnerability stayed almost constant during
1986–1991 and 1993–2004, while it decreased sharply afterwards to form a
"stair-type" declining curve over the past 31 years. Resilience is
progressively increasing by virtue of a continuous increase in medical
services supply, fixed asset investments, and salary levels of employees.
These determinants contribute to the overall downward trend of social
vulnerability for Shenzhen.