Coastline evolution based on statistical analysis and modeling

In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences: NHESS, Band 19, Heft 9, S. 1937-1953

Abstract

Abstract. Wind, waves, tides, sediment supply, changes in relative
sea level and human activities strongly affect shorelines, which constantly
move in response to these processes, over a variety of timescales. Thus,
the implementation of sound coastal zone management strategies needs
reliable information on erosion and/or deposition processes. To suggest a
feasible way to provide this information is the main reason for this work. A
chain approach is proposed here, tested on a vulnerable coastal site located
along southern Italy, and based on the joint analysis of field data,
statistical tools and numerical modeling. Firstly, the coastline morphology
has been examined through interannual field data, such as aerial
photographs, plane-bathymetric surveys and seabed characterization. After this,
rates of shoreline changes have been quantified with a specific GIS tool.
The correlations among the historical positions of the shoreline have been
detected by statistical analysis and have been satisfactorily confirmed by
numerical modeling, in terms of recurrent erosion–accretion area and beach
rotation trends. Finally, based on field topographic, sediment, wave and
wind data, the response of the beach through numerical simulation has been
investigated in a forecasting perspective. The purpose of this study is to
provide a feasible, general and replicable chain approach, which could help
to thoroughly understand the dynamics of a coastal system, identify typical
and recurrent erosion–accretion processes, and predict possible future
trends, useful for planning of coastal activities.