Counterbalancing And Pragmatic Accommodation: CEE Countries Towards Russia's Expansion, 2014-2021

In: Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, S. 77-104

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to study the differentiation of CEE countries' approaches towards Russia's expansion, and then to identify explanatory variables. CEE policies fit to the balance of power categories, specifically: counterbalancing and accommodation. The method of assessing each CEE country's policies towards Russia combines gathering information on 2014-2021 activities classified in three groups: bilateral relations with Russia; relations with other NATO countries framed as counterbalancing Russia; relations with Ukraine regarding counterbalancing Russia. The method of explanation for diverse CEE policies consists in assigning quantitative values and applying statistics in order to discover correlations. The result of the first step is placing each CEE country on the axis of relatively pro- (Hungary) and anti-Russian (Lithuania and Poland) policies. The quantitative version of the axis serves as dependent variable in the statistical research which reveals finals results: the strongest correlations are demonstrated by proximity and distance to Russia, which reflects Russia's closest neighbors' counterbalancing tendencies. Historical grievances and the size of Russian minorities are second-strongest. However, excluding Hungary, historical grievances become the strongest factor of anti-Russian policies.