Fluctuation du taux de croissance de l'investissement dans les économies à planification centralisée

In: Revue d'études comparatives est-ouest: RECEO, Band 15, Heft 3, S. 105-124

Abstract

Fluctuations in the Rate of Growth of Investment in Centrally Planned Economies.
This article deals with various interpretations of the phenomenon of fluctuations in the rate of growth of investment in planned economies. Although a fair amount has been written on the subject, we are still without a genuine theory of the investment cycle, i.e. a theory which might explain continuing factors in the process (both in « rises » and « falls ») as well as discontinuities (reversals in a tendency, crisis and recovery). The most developed studies are those analysing the cumulative upward process (pressure of investment) and those on crises.
In early studies of investment cycles, there was a general tendency to attribute fluctuations to errors on the part of the planners. It was held that perfection of the techniques of planning would ensure harmonious development. But the persistent succession of phases of acceleration and deceleration led to the formulation of a new theory, according to which it was the planners themselves who brought about the instability. The studies referred to in this article suggest that it may be possible to submit both hypotheses to a vigorous test, and perhaps reconcile them.
It does seem as if the plan may well play a dual role, as a generator of imbalance and as an equilibrative mechanism. The planners make up adjustment, but only at the point where the build-up of tensions and imbalances has gone beyond a certain threshold.