Strategies of Taiwanese Political Parties during the 2023-2024 Election Campaign

In: Problemy Dal'nego Vostoka: naučnyj, obščestvenno-političeskij žurnal, Heft 3, S. 9-26

Abstract

Despite the fact that the presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan in 2024 took place in an unprecedentedly difficult international political environment, and the campaign itself was competitive, in general, the election results can be considered as consistent with preliminary polls. However, they highlighted a number of important trends in Taiwan's political life that will influence the island's future: notably, the DPP candidate won for the third time in a row. Although the expert community has recorded a softening of the position of DPP leader Lai Qingde regarding the issue of Taiwan's status compared to the previous period, the general rhetoric of party representatives creates the preconditions for maintaining tension in cross-strait relations. However, the fact that the KMT won the majority of seats in parliament will likely balance the situation. The current campaign is also specific considering that the struggle unfolded not only between representatives of two traditionally opposing camps — the DPP and the KMT but also a serious competition for the candidates came from representatives of the TPP, who also expanded their representation in parliament following the election results. Thus, Taiwan's political landscape is becoming more diverse and needs to be studied more seriously. Competition between the island's political powers inevitably has an impact on the political situation in the Taiwan Strait, which consequently affects relations with the mainland. The relations with Beijing remain a central issue for the political platforms of the main Taiwanese political parties. Within the two largest parties — the KMT and the DPP — relations with Beijing are the issue of serious internal debates. The balance of power in cross-strait relations has undergone major changes in recent years, as Taiwan's political forces have tried to adapt to the generational change and respond to major events such as the 2019 Hong Kong riots and the COVID-19 pandemic. The article examines the changes in the approaches of the Taiwanese parties to relations with the mainland in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in January 2024 and their possible consequences for relations between the sides of the Taiwan Strait.