Russian society after the COVID-19 pandemic: look into the future

In: Moscow State University Bulletin. Series 18. Sociology and Political Science, Band 27, Heft 4, S. 7-32

Abstract

The article analyzes in detail the medical, as well as socio-economic and social problems in Russia caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty and little-studied process of the course of a new disease, its consequences for the human body, caused many problems associated with the liberalization of medicine and healthcare as the most important social institution. Although huge human resources were allocated and large material resources were spent to combat the pandemic, it was not possible to quickly localize its spread. Despite the fact that a sufficient number of optimistic forecasts were made, including by medical professionals, and even specific dates for the end of the pandemic were periodically called, it has clearly taken on a protracted nature. At the same time, unfortunately, the experience of fighting various infectious diseases, including smallpox and cholera, accumulated by domestic medicine, especially during the Soviet period, was not taken into account. Not enough attention was paid to the analysis of the experience of fighting this disease in its "homeland" — China.Among the economic problems caused by the pandemic are significant sectoral shifts and imbalances in the structure of the economy, a drop in GDP, an increase in inflation, a decrease in real incomes and a redistribution of expenditures among the population, as well as serious changes in the labor market. The social problems caused by the pandemic include the deterioration of the socio-demographic situation and the serious aggravation of traditional and the emergence of new forms of social inequality — health inequality, digital inequality, age and regional inequality.The coronavirus pandemic, which has engulfed almost the entire world, has seriously affected the economy, as well as social and behavioral practices, has caused fears, anxiety, even panic, and deterioration of the social well-being of large segments of society.The article analyzes three probabilistic forecasts of the development of events after the pandemic. According to the first of them, the whole world, including our country, will return to the former, neoliberal course after the end of the pandemic. Then new actors of the world order will come to the forefront of history, and the most powerful socio-economic crisis will take a protracted character, which will entail numerous human sacrifices. The second involves the establishment of a new state dictatorship — a digital type, with total control of bureaucratic institutions over all spheres of personal and public life, including the spread of the influence of medicine on them. The third one justifies the use of the experience of fighting the pandemic and the crisis to review and eliminate the dysfunctional components of the social system, change the attitude to personal and social values, which, ultimately, will help change society for the better.