Section III. Prospects for Europe

In: National Institute economic review: journal of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, Volume 165, p. 54-65

Abstract

Activity picked up markedly in the EU area last year; growth was estimated to have been 2.6 per cent compared with 1.8 per cent recorded in 1996. However the aggregate movement masks some significant divergences in economic performance. Growth was relatively modest, at between 2–2½ per cent in Germany, France and Austria, whilst Italy and Sweden recorded growth rates below 2 per cent for the second year running. The fastest growth was achieved in the Irish Republic where output expanded by over 10 per cent last year, following cumulative growth of 27 per cent in the previous three years. Finland also recorded rapid growth of nearly 6 per cent and nearly all the remaining EU countries enjoyed growth rates of 3 per cent or above. Outside the EU, activity remained robust in Norway, Poland and Hungary but was markedly weaker in the Czech Republic and Switzerland. Indeed real GDP has barely changed in Switzerland since 1990, partly reflecting the strength of the Swiss franc, although there are now signs that growth will be stronger in 1998 as the franc has depreciated since the end of 1995.