Methodological Premises of Social Forecasting

In: The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Band 412, Heft 1, S. 97-115

Abstract

The forecasting of social futures has to contend with emergent novelty, as one phase in development is replaced by another and as social processes of diverse nature first come to interact. To this problem of emergent novelty the social forecaster must add the difficulties which arise because: (1) the social systems are much more complex than the aspects studied by the separate social sciences and (2) the sharing of parts between different subsystems is so great that their subordination to newly emerging processes can be very difficult to detect. At least three strategies have evolved to cope with these difficulties. Two have proven of limited value. All fall short of the kind of methodology which can be identified as necessary.