Voting in a global pandemic: Assessing dueling influences of Covid‐19 on turnout

In: Social science quarterly, Volume 102, Issue 5, p. 2210-2235

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveWe investigate the impact of a global health crisis on political behavior. Specifically, we assess the impact of Covid‐19 incidence rates, and the impact of temporal and spatial proximity to the crisis, on voter turnout in the 2020 Brazilian municipal elections.MethodsWe use Ordinary Least Squares and Spatial Durbin Error models to evaluate sub‐national variation in municipal‐level Covid‐19 incidence and voter turnout. We include controls for political, economic, health, and state context.ResultsCeteris paribus, increasing deaths in the month leading up to the election from 0.01 to 1 per 1000 people is associated with a 5 percentage point decrease in turnout; higher cases and deaths earlier in the pandemic are generally associated with higher turnout. Covid‐19 incidence rates in nearby municipalities affect local turnout in the same directions.ConclusionHigher Covid‐19 incidence near the time of the election decreases voter turnout, while incidence farther from the election increases voter turnout.