Epidemic propagation risk study with effective fractal dimension

In: Risk analysis: an international journal, Band 44, Heft 3, S. 612-622

Abstract

AbstractIn this article, the risk of epidemic transmission on complex networks is studied from the perspective of effective fractal dimension. First, we introduce the method of calculating the effective fractal dimension of the network by taking a scale‐free network as an example. Second, we propose the construction method of administrative fractal network and calculate the . using the classical susceptible exposed infectious removed (SEIR) infectious disease model, we simulate the virus propagation process on the administrative fractal network. The results show that the larger the is, the higher the risk of virus transmission is. Later, we proposed five parameters P, M, B, F, and D, where P denotes population mobility, M denotes geographical distance, B denotes GDP, F denotes , and D denotes population density. The new epidemic growth index formula was obtained by combining these five parameters, and the validity of I in epidemic transmission risk assessment was demonstrated by parameter sensitivity analysis and reliability analysis. Finally, we also confirmed the reliability of the SEIR dynamic transmission model in simulating early COVID‐19 transmission trends and the ability of timely quarantine measures to effectively control the spread of the epidemic.