Seasonal Forecasting of River Flows in the British Isles Using North Atlantic Pressure Patterns

In: Water and environment journal, Band 15, Heft 1, S. 56-63

Abstract

AbstractA potentially useful forecasting relationship is demonstrated between the North Atlantic Oscillation index in winter (January‐February) and the following summer (July‐September) monthly mean flows for selected rivers in the British Isles. The relationship was strongest in August when up to 40% of the variance in monthly mean flow may be explained. For two rivers in southern and eastern England, positive phases of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index were found to precede summer flows which were nearly 50% of long‐term average. A regression equation which was established to predict August flows in the Great Stour produced a correlation score of 0.6 at a lead time of six months. Further research is needed to determine the significance of catchment characteristics and geographic location relative to forecasting skill.