SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND SPECIFIC DETERRENCE: INTEGRATING THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL MODELS OF RECIDIVISM*

In: Criminology: the official publication of the American Society of Criminology, Band 35, Heft 4, S. 561-576

Abstract

This study uses survival analysis to test propositions from specific deterrence theory. It examines the effect of a custodial sentence on time until rearrest, generally and under various conditions. Results suggest that for those with few ties to conventional society and for first‐time arrestees, a sentence of incarceration increases the probability of rearrest. However, for arrestees with few ties and for experienced offenders, longer incarceration predicts longer time until rearrest.