When does the turning point in China's CO2emissions occur? Results based on the Green Solow model

In: Environment and development economics, Band 20, Heft 6, S. 723-745

Abstract

AbstractIn recent years, the surge in China's CO2emissions has caused increasing international concern. In this paper, we investigate whether and when the turning point in China's CO2emissions would occur. A simple yet powerful neoclassical Green Solow model (GSM) is utilized herein as the main forecasting tool. To verify the capability of this framework to address China's economy, a key prediction of the GSM – the convergence in per capita CO2emissions across Chinese provinces – is empirically verified. By assigning reasonable values to the GSM's key parameters, the trajectories of total CO2emissions are projected for the three regions of China and the whole country. The forecast results show that, under the benchmark scenario, China's total CO2emissions would peak around the year 2047. According to the sensitivity analysis, carbon efficiency is the most important determining factor for whether a turning point in total CO2emissions may occur.