Turnout likely down due to top job candidates

Blog: Between The Lines

Abstract

Perceived lesser quality of gubernatorial candidates
except for the front runner explains why voting in Louisiana's contest for its
top job likely will decline markedly this cycle.

The latest statewide figures for registration by
party and race are Democrats at 38.7 percent, Republicans at 33.8 percent, and
others at 28.5 percent, with whites comprising 62.8 percent, blacks 31.2
percent, and others 6 percent. This contrasts with 2019 figures at the same
time of year of 42.4 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans, and 27.6 other/no
parties, and whites being 63.5 percent, blacks 31.3 percent, and others 5.2
percent. Reflecting the population drain throughout the two terms of Democrat
Gov. John Bel Edwards,
only 8,000 more voters were registered now than four years ago.

However, early in-person
voting was down considerably compared to 2019,
after years of increasing proportions. It was off by nearly a fifth, or 66,000.
Louisiana has had early no-excuse voting since 2008, and throughout this period
analysts have grappled with understanding year-over-year changes in numbers and
proportions in terms of whether these would predict eventual turnout and
whether any party benefitted. It has been assumed that a learning curve existed
for voters which caused largely a substitution effect; i.e., almost all early
voters would have voted on election day, but increases from similar election to
election were confounded by the learning curve of more voters realizing they
could vote and then taking advantage of voting early. But dropping off in early
voting, and considerably, unmistakably denotes a lack of enthusiasm compared to
the previous similar election, as it seems unlikely that those intending to
vote would delay deliberately their vote choice.

Compared to 2019, when Democrats were 43.8 percent,
Republicans 41.5 percent and others 14.7 percent, and whites made up 72
percent, blacks 25.4 percent, and others 2.6 percent, of early voters, in 2023
Democrats had only 40.1 percent with Republicans at 44.6 percent and others/none
at 15.3 percent with whites having 71 percent, blacks 26.1 percent, and others
2.9 percent. In raw numbers, Democrats fell nearly 30,000, less than the white
decline of 33,000 while Republicans dropped just 5,000 and blacks only 7,000.

If assuming the exact same forces at work this
upcoming governor's election as with its 2019 counterpart, back then early in-person
voting accounted for 11.5 percent of the electorate which eventually cast over
1.343 million votes or 45.9 percent of the electorate, then this year with that
early voting comprising 9.2 percent translates to only 36.7 percent turnout and
just 1.091 million cast. By contrast, 2015 saw turnout of 39.2 percent, and
2011 of 32.8 percent.

 This overview points to two factors explaining the
potential 20 percent drop in turnout. First and foremost, Democrats have a pair
of weak main candidates from which to choose. Former cabinet member Shawn Wilson is the most leftist major
candidate ever to run, even more than Edwards, which repels traditional liberal
populists that were the party's backbone for a century. And their alternative,
independent trial lawyer Hunter Lundy
who is a social conservative but who backs classic leftist redistributionist
politics, comes across as too raw and simple.

Neither candidate excites the base beyond
activists, something that manifests clearest in the statistics as a big drop in
white Democrats voting early. Even blacks, who tend to be more socially
conservative as a whole than in most states especially outside of the large
metropolitan areas, aren't excited about Wilson, the first major black
gubernatorial candidate in the state's history not competing against a major
white Democrat.

The other is the dominance of GOP Atty. Gen. Jeff Landry, endorsed by most conservative
politicians and organizations and the Republican Party, and well-funded far
above other GOP alternatives. This has created the impression that he's already
won entry into the runoff, if not the race itself, which discourages casual
voters not interested much in outcomes of other offices and in particular
Republicans not enthusiastic about him but who see no viable alternative from
within the party. Even some casual voters who like Landry figure he has it in
the bag and they won't need to show up for him to win.

This makes 2023 much like 2011, when the popular
GOP incumbent Gov. Bobby Jindal so dominated the field that no quality
candidate would run against him. Then, some Republicans stayed home thinking a
general election victory was a sure thing (they were right) and Democrats
without a real candidate skipped that one (a number of Board of Elementary and
Secondary Education and state legislative contests had much higher turnouts, since
these were seen as more competitive).

If Landry doesn't win outright in the general election
– possible, but not probable – and thereby faces Wilson in the runoff, look for
a noticeable decline in that contest as well. Like it or not, competitiveness matters
in making people care about elections.