How to design EU-level contingency plans for gas shortages? Evidence from behavioural economics, policy research and past experience. Final report

Abstract

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the risk of a prolonged physical supply shortage of natural gas is higher than ever before. While European Union (EU) institutions and member states are discussing the possibility of imposing an embargo or a gradual phase out in this sector, an abrupt shortage may result from a political decision on the supplier's side. This event would be beyond EU control and requires appropriate contingency plans. However, the EU does not have adequate procedures for managing long-term supply interruptions. High gas prices alone will not be able to deliver the necessary level of savings, and they will also create unfair distribution of reserves. EU's preparedness and resilience rests on its ability to adjust gas demand quickly, efficiently and in a fair manner. With gas rationing as the measure of last resort, we propose to develop non-price-based mechanisms, as well as coordinated and voluntary efforts for gas saving on a European level. To increase resilience and unlock gas saving potential across sectors, the following steps are recommended. [.]