The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses

In: Rubin , O 2020 , ' The political dynamics of voter retrospection and disaster responses ' , Disasters , vol. 44 , no. 2 , pp. 239-261 . https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12376

Open Access

Abstract

Natural hazards not only have socio‐economic impacts, they also have political repercussions. This paper takes stock of the fast‐growing research linking disasters triggered by natural hazards to voting behaviour. The research is based on the central tenet of voter retrospection: voters place emphasis on past events when deciding their vote. The paper uncovers a great disparity of electoral outcomes in the wake of disasters. Some of this disparity can be explained away by authors' different methodological choices. However, the unpredictability of voting behaviour in the wake of disasters also points to the relevance of introducing an intermediate variable when explaining voter movements. This variable should capture the prevailing political discourses surrounding disasters, as these are likely to shape the dynamics of voter retrospection. The paper demonstrates the analytical relevance of such political discourses by contrasting the political dynamics in Denmark and Sweden in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami. ; Natural hazards not only have socioeconomic ramifications, they also have political repercussions. This paper takes stock of the fast‐growing area of research linking disasters triggered by natural hazards to voting behaviour. It is based on the central tenet of voter retrospection: voters place emphasis on past events when making their selection. The study uncovers a great disparity in analysis of electoral outcomes in the wake of disasters, part of which can be explained by the different methodological choices of authors. However, the unpredictability of voting behaviour in the aftermath of disasters also points to the relevance of introducing an intermediate variable when elucidating voter movements. This variable should capture the prevailing political discourses that surround disasters, as these are likely to shape the dynamics of voter retrospection. The paper demonstrates the analytical relevance of such political discourses by contrasting political dynamics in Denmark and Sweden following the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004.