Involving end-users in calibration and validation processes: A key factor to favor transfer of integrated models

Open Access

Abstract

International audience ; Context and motivation Environmental issues now pose a threat to human civilization worldwide [1]. The risks associated with delayed reaction and adaptation times make the situation urgent [2]. The problems are amplified by their systemic nature: First the environment is degrading on all fronts at the same time and at the global planetary scale. Second the complexity and intertwining of our socio-economic organization are extreme. As focal points of human activity, urban areas concentrate and amplify environmental pressures in a direct or indirect way. Faced with this situation, researchers mobilize; in particular systemic and pluridisciplinary approaches have the wind in their sails. Nevertheless, and despite the urgency, there is a clear lack of transfer of sustainability science findings from the academic world to the political one. In this context, opening the discussion on how to ensure and accelerate the transfer of knowledge and associated tools developed by researchers on systemic modeling at local scale towards local decision makers is critical. The objectives of the CITiES project 1, which builds on such a statement in the framework of"Land Use and Transport Interaction" modeling (LUTI), meet this need 2, at least in part (see for example [3] for a general overview of LUTI). In particular, we tackle two important bottlenecks: the complexity of the calibration processes and the assessment of the reliability of the models. For some time now, researchers interact with institutional actors to specify relevant urban policy scenarios and indicators used in LUTI models. But it seems that these interactions with stakeholders are not enoughto favor a large diffusion of these tools: Integrating end-users in the entire modeling process, from the definition of the objectives of the modeling exercise to the validation processes, appears as a determining factor. For example, the models' calibration processes must be appropriate to the constraints and limitations of local agencies and they ...