Adaptive change-point mixed models applied to data on outpatient tetracycline use in Europe

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a change-point mixed model to assess the change in the trend of outpatient antibiotic use in a Bayesian framework, where the change-points are unknown parameters of the model. Model selection using DIC indicates that the data supports the model with a country-specific change-point. The location of the change-points may be related to points in time where public health strategies aiming at increasing the awareness of the public to a more rational use of antibiotics or targeting to reduce overconsumption of antibiotics were initiated. ; We also gratefully acknowledge support from IAP research Network #P6/03 of the Belgian Government (Belgian Science Policy). The 1997-2005 data collection was funded by a grant from DG SANCO of the European Commission (Grant Agreement 20033211), whereas the 2006-09 data collection was funded by the ECDC (Grant Agreement 2007/001).