Poslednji tango u Evrozoni? - pukotine u Evro konstruktu ; Last tango in the Euro Area: Cracks in foundations of the Euro construct

Abstract

Kriza suverenog duga i bankarskog sistema u Evrozoni predstavljaju veliku potencijalnu opasnost ne samo po privrednu stabilnost Starog kontinenta već celokupne svetske ekonomije. U radu se razmatraju uzroci krize i ukazuje na moguća kratkoročna rešenja koja imaju za cilj prevazilaženje recesije. Ukoliko pak, centralne evropske zemlje nastave da insistiraju na implementaciji deflacionističke ekonomske politike u perifernim evropskim privredama, moguć je raspad Evrozone sa nizom pratećih negativnih efekata čije krajnje posledice u sadašnjem momentu nije moguće sagledati u celosti. ; The crisis of sovereign debt and banking system in the Euro Area seriously endanger not only economic stability of the Old continent, but also of the world economy as a whole. In this study, we identify causes of the crisis and point towards plausible solutions aiming at a provisional overcoming of the recession. If, on the other hand, central European countries continue to insist on further implementation of deflationary oriented economic measures in peripheral European economies the break-up of the Euro Area is likely. Final, potentially devastating consequences of this possible grim event are at this moment very hard to predict.