The trade effect of African Free Trade Areas (FTA) 2008-2017: A Gravity Model Analysis

Abstract

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 국제대학원 국제학과(국제지역학전공), 2020. 8. 안덕근. ; 아프리카 자유무역구역(FTAs)은 아프리카 지역 국가들이 관세 인하를 통해 다른 지역경제공동체(RECs) 혹은 지역무역구역(RTAs) 내 상품과 서비스의 교역을 증진하도록 하는 지역 경제 통합의 가장 중요한 목적 중 하나이다. 본 연구는 아프리카자유무역지역(FTAs)의 설립 목적을 분석하고, 그레비티 모형(Gravity Model)을 활용하여 그 효과를 분석하고자 한다. 분석 결과, 지역무역지대(RTAs)의 회원 국가의 무역량은 상당히 증가하였으나, 비회원국의 교역량은 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 비회원국의 교역량의 감소는 정치적 불안정성과도 깊은 연관이 있는 것으로 분석되었으며, 이는 결국 국가의 무역 실적은 관세 인하 효과뿐만 아니라 국가의 정치적 의지에 의해 달성된다는 것을 나타낸다. ; African Free Trade Areas (FTAs) are one of the most significant purposes of the Regional and economic integration that have made African countries group themselves into different Regional economic communities (RECs) also called Regional Trade Areas (RTAs) so as they can enhance and promote trade of goods and services among them with minimum restrictions. This study has been conducted in objective to analyze the establishment of African Free Trade Areas(FTAs) and their trade effect; with the use of Gravity Model analysis, the results found showed in some cases that a country being a member State of a regional Trade Area in Africa increased significantly its trade volume which means the increase of intra-regional trade but for other cases the results showed that there was trade volume declines; the important reason for the declines was that there is a significant relationship of trade declines and political instability which meant that trade performance would not only be achieved from tariff alleviation but also political will of Committed Nations. ; CHAPTER I. GENERAL INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Background of the Study 1 1.2. Statement of The Problem 3 1.3. Objectives of the study 4 1.4. Research Question 4 I.5. Hypothesis 4 1.6. Scope of the study 4 1.7. Limitations of the Study 5 CHAPTER II. LITERATURE REVIEW 6 2.1. Definition of Concepts 6 2.1.1. Free Trade Area (FTA) 6 2.1.2.1. African Economic Community (AEC) 8 2.1.3. Preferential tariff rates comparison of the RTAs 16 2.2. Review of other studies on Trade effects of FTAs 17 2.3. Review of existing studies on Trade effects of African Regional Trade Areas (RTAs) 18 CHAPTER III: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 22 3.2 Methodology 26 CHAPTER IV: FINDINGS AND INTERPRETATION 30 4.1 ALGERIA 30 4.2. EGYPT 33 4.3. MADAGASCAR 35 4.4. SOUTH AFRICA 39 4.5. TANZANIA 41 CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 45 5.1. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS 45 5.2. POLICY RECOMMENDATION 47 5.3. RECOMMENDATION FOR FURTHER STUDIES 48 5.4 CONCLUSION 48 REFERENCES: 50 ANNEX 1. LIST OF COUNTRIES USED IN THE STUDY 54 ANNEXE 2: LIST OF THE REGIONAL TRADE AREAS (RTAs) AND THEIR MEMBER STATES 55 초록 57 ; Master