Applying a systems analysis approach to support marine spatial planning in Algoa Bay, South Africa

Open Access

Abstract

Ocean health provides the foundation for human health through the provisioning of ecosystem services. Increasing demands on ocean space and resources are, however, resulting in a decline in ocean health, with direct and indirect knock-on effects on marine uses and ultimately on human health. In response, there is a growing need to acknowledge and better manage complex human-ocean interactions. This has been recognised in global sustainable development goals and in integrated ocean management processes, leading to widespread endorsement of an ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP) process, including in South Africa. In support of the national MSP process, significant progress has been made in understanding the spatial extent of marine activities and associated marine pressures, but the temporal dynamics of marine activities and interconnections with the marine environment are less well understood. To plan for the growth of marine activities and associated user conflicts, the drivers of these temporal dynamics and associated feedback effects need to be analysed and potential policy and management interventions identified and tested. To support South Africa's national MSP process, this study adopts a systems analysis approach, using system dynamics modelling, to explore the temporal change in marine uses under alternative growth scenarios in Algoa Bay. Algoa Bay is an appropriate study area because it is experiencing a rapid expansion of marine activities, coupled with a growing uncertainty regarding marine sustainability outcomes. To assist future marine management decisions, the Algoa Marine Systems Analysis Tool (Algoa MSAT) was developed, comprising seven sub-models. Five of the sub-models represent selected marine uses in Algoa Bay, whereas the sixth and seventh integrate the outputs from each marine use in terms of sustainable management indicators (marine health, marine wealth and marine labour). Model development primarily adopted an expert-based model ling approach, although the involvement of stakeholders, through a collaborative modelling process, assisted in integrating knowledge on different marine sectors' activities, impacts and planning visions into the model framework. Model results were generated under different scenarios to investigate changes in the growth of marine activities and marine sustainability indicators under different levels of ocean governance. Under the baseline (or business-as-usual) model scenario, marine activities were shown to grow increasingly within their respective management limits, with an increase in marine wealth and labour and a consequential decrease in marine health. This scenario particularly highlights that current ocean governance practices are ineffective in sustaining the projected growth of the marine uses, particularly for those that are vulnerable to negative changes in marine health. Conversely, sectors that hold more value in marine wealth and are more resilient to changes in marine health, may continue to grow regardless of negative knock-on effects of the health of the marine environment and on other uses in the bay. This emphasises that an alternative governance strategy is needed to achieve the long-term goal of an ecosystem-based MSP process, as required by South African MSP legislation. To achieve this will require multiple, adaptive cross-sectoral management interventions that are directed towards the 'deeper leverage points' that are able to maintain the growth of marine activities within appropriate limits defined by marine health. Using the model interface developed in this project, decision-makers and stakeholders can use the model to explore the temporal dynamics in marine activities under different governance scenarios. Although the model is limited to Algoa Bay, the model boundary can be adapted to assist in marine planning processes at national or trans-national scales. Such analytical assessments and tools are critical to progress the ecosystem-based management approach in MSP, as is required to achieve global sustainable development goals. ; Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Science, Coastal and Marine Research Unit, 2021