"His to Lose": The Failure of George Herbert Walker Bush, 1992

Open Access

Abstract

Using a two-wave panel, this paper locates the proximate causes of the defeat of George Bush in 1992 not among the variables traditionally applied by election forecasters-economic performance measures, presidential popularity, or retrospective partisanship-but in the tactics and choices of the electoral season itself. The Bush campaign failed to secure a firm base of support, failed to generate momentum even among those predisposed to support the incumbent, and failed to recognize, then capture, the issue space most important to the electorate. As a result, Bush failed to secure a second term.