EXCHANGE RATE, FISCAL POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES IMPACT ON OIL PRICES IN PAKISTAN: A VOLATILITY AND GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Open Access

Abstract

Purpose. Crude oil is an important and most demanded commodity throughout the world. There are various oil processes like electricity production, manufacturing processes and transport sector. Oil is the basic necessity thus is important to study the volatility in oil prices because oil price volatility reduces the aggregate output for short run and as a result uncertainty increases and investment also decreases (Guo and Kliesen, 2005).This research analysis the effect of exchange rate variation and the fiscal policy changes on the oil price volatility and granger causality of macroeconomic variables. Lee (1998) defined volatility as the standard deviation in a given period. She submitted that Volatility has a negative and significant impact on economic growth immediately, while the impact of oil price changes delays until after a year. She concludes by stating that it is volatility/change in crude oil prices rather than oil price level that has a significant influence on economic growth. Methodology. GARCH (1,1) test define the exchange rate has not a significant relation with the local oil price but fiscal policy effect and foreign oil price has a significant relation on the local oil price. Granger Causality test indicate that oil price volatility does not granger cause on public sector investment and gross domestic production does not granger cause on public sector investment is significant. Except these relationship, all other variables relationship exist and possible. Findings. This research identify the effect of exchange rate, fiscal policy and international oil prices on oil prices of Pakistan. Different econometrics tests are utilized for analyses. Due to shortage of time, money and resources, this study only focus on Pakistan but this type of study can also implemented in Asia or more developing countries for more generalize effects and conclusion. Originality. This is the first implemented research who define the magnitude, direction and effects among the variable in context of Pakistan. Before this research, there is only opinions are founds by different economists, politicians and analysists.